WEBVTT

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And we are live. Welcome to episode 225 of the

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G2 on 5G. It's the latest Insight Scoop on everything

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5G. We cover six topics in about 20 minutes,

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and it's brought to you by More Insights and

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Strategy. I'm Will Townsend, and joining me again

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this week is fellow analyst Anshul Sai. Before

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we get started, we've got a pretty big milestone

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coming up, don't we, my friend? Yeah, we are

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about to hit our five -year anniversary of starting

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this podcast. We originally wanted to start it

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in February of 2020, and then I caught COVID.

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So we pushed it back and we started, I think,

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May 30th of 2020. So we've been doing this for

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almost five years. We're about to hit five years

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a week from today. We're hoping to keep on doing

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this for another five years until 5G is done

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and dusted and we've moved on to 5G. Yeah, five

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years for 5G. Man, it's been a lot of fun doing

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these with you, buddy. And it's hard to believe

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it's five years. And I've been at the firm. I

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know you just passed your 10th year anniversary.

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I'm on nine, going on 10. It's my longest gig,

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I think, ever, even compared to what I did in

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corporate America. And it's a lot of fun. I think

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you and I are blessed to do what we love. And

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without further ado, let's jump into it. So I

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want to talk about my first topic. And I had

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received this news when I was over in Paris,

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so it was a little time delayed. Big news with

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AT &T doubling down on fiber with its Lumen acquisition.

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And I'm sure you're going to have some things

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to share about this, but this is pretty massive.

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So basically AT &T is acquiring the fiber portion

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of Lumen's mass markets business unit for nearly

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$6 billion. And you and I have talked on numerous

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podcasts about AT &T investing in fiber. You

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use their service. I've used their service in

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the past. Fiber is foundational. It provides

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the best experience when it comes to broadband

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support, backhaul that's needed for mobile services.

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And this just really cements what AT &T is doing

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from a fiber investment. The company's had very

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bold plans, a goal to reach 60 million locations

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by 2030. And certainly this, from my perspective,

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helps in that regard. And what more can we say

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about this? This is big news. What do you think

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about all this? Yeah, I was a bit surprised to

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hear this news, but it makes tons of sense. AT

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&T is expanding their fiber business. This gives

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them even more customers, predominantly on the

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West Coast. And I think I was a bit surprised

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because I didn't think Lumen was trying to divest

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from their consumer business. They do still get

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to keep their copper wireline business for customers

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that don't have fiber. I think it's a great thing

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because I think AT &T Fiber is a great service.

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I continue to use it. And if I move, there's

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now a much higher probability that I'll still

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have AT &T Fiber. Yeah, it certainly looks like

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that. And the consumer footprint is massive that

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comes along with this acquisition. I believe

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like over 4 million locations. Yeah, I mean,

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it's certainly... From my perspective, it's a

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consolidation play. This is also, I wasn't aware

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of the geographic location. You're indicating

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that it's West Coast, but this certainly helps

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with what AT &T is doing to focus on converged

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connectivity services. Converged being obviously

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fixed and wireless broadband to the home with

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its internet 5G air service. as well as mobility

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as well. And we've talked about that. I wrote

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a Forbes article after speaking with Jen Robertson

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that leads mass markets. This is a huge business

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for AT &T. I'm not surprised. Before this deal,

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about $90 billion of top -line revenue comes

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out of the mass markets consumer business for

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AT &T. So this will continue to add to that.

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And it'll be really interesting to see how creative

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this is over time. In other words, Not being

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just a share sort of consolidation for AT &T,

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but something that the company can meaningfully

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grow, having these additional locations. Congratulations

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to AT &T. It's a huge announcement. And I'll

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be sharing some insights on social media. I'm

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a little behind just getting back from Paris

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after a delay last night. But with that, let's

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go to your first topic. And I don't think you'll

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get too political on this, but you want to talk

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about President Trump wanting to auction 600

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megahertz spectrum. or 5G and eventually 6G deployment.

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Yes. Our dear leader, President Trump, whom I...

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You say that so affectionately. ...whom I have

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opinions about, tweeted out that the big, beautiful

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bill... I'm just going to do this verbatim and

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use the quote. We must maintain our status as

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the worldwide leader in Wi -Fi, 5G, and 6G, connecting

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every American to the world's best networks,

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while also keeping everyone safe. We can do both

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at the same time. Bottom line, I'm going to free

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up plenty of spectrum for auction. So Congress

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must put 600 megahertz in the big. In the one

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big beautiful bill, let's make sure all options

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are on the table. Never bet against American

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ingenuity. Make America great again. Okay. The

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problem with that is 600 megahertz. There are

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no contiguous 600 megahertz bands. So this is

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really a call to auction whatever potential frequencies

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might be available in the 1 .5 to 10 gigahertz

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band. So this is really also what they've been

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talking about in the lower three gigahertz band

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as well. There were no actual details because

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the actual legislation says 600 megahertz in

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the 1 .3 to 10 gigahertz band. So clearly it's

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not a millimeter wave call. It's very much about

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mid band, low band, and even mid to high band.

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But the reality is this is very like surface

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level, but it does show that there are lobbyists.

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who have been in the Trump administration's ear

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on freeing up more spectrum for 5g and 6g and

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potentially wifi. And while I did not have this

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as a topic, I saw a LinkedIn post from some of

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the people I follow at Intel where they have.

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started to test some Wi -Fi spectrum in the 7

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gigahertz band, low 7 gigahertz band, and they

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were doing this with Broadcom. It's really interesting

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to see these spectrum discussions occurring,

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but I think it's fairly low stakes at this point.

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And if anything, I hope that any spectrum auctions

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that do occur will occur in a better fashion

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than the last one under the Trump administration.

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I'll also just add that I think there's... some

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appetite to generate revenue like they did with

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the last auction. And I think they're more focused

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on the fact that there is an opportunity to monetize

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government spectrum and to force people off of

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it as the government. And I think that they're

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once again attracted to this idea. I agree with

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you. There's a huge monetization opportunity

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here. There is benefit. And from my perspective,

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the FC, and I'm going to talk about Spectrum

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here in a minute as well. in a different vein,

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but there needs to be a better process just for

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the allocation spectrum in general. And it just

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seems like we need to be, it just seems to be

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that the FCC is not proactive in managing this.

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And then all of a sudden our elected officials

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look at something and say, oh, here's an opportunity

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to put more money in the treasury coffers. Yeah.

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I mean, from my perspective, it'll be interesting

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to see how this winds out, but that's a great

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segue to my second topic. And I want to talk

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about the upper 12 gigahertz spectrum band. And

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can low Earth orbit satellite connectivity get

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a boost with it? CAR, the current chairperson,

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has been speaking to the opportunity to free

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this up, to facilitate service providers like

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AST Space Mobile and Starlink. And the challenge

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is that these companies are having to work with

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mobile network operators and the terrestrial

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spectrum holdings that are already in place to

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enable this. Now there's discussion around, hey,

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looking at this upper 12 gigahertz spectrum profile

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and allocating that to all of these low Earth

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orbit satellite companies that are getting into

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the game. Amazon is getting into the game. OneWeb,

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I think they're still after it to some extent.

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But what do you think about all this? Is this

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sort of a kind of a non -news thing, your first

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topic? Or can this really move the needle and

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maybe accelerate? services from AST Space Mobile

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and Starlink and everyone else? I think there's

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potential. I think it's important that if this

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band is made available, that it's fairly accessible

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and that the auction is not heavily weighted

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towards one player or another. So I think fair

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rules would be important to enable startups to

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be successful because I hate to admit it, but

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I just think that Starlink and SpaceX are going

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to get favorable. treatment every time. And I'm

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just not about that. Yeah. And we've talked about

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this in the past too. Starlink has been very

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aggressive in trying to lobby the federal government

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with respect to DISH and Echo Star sitting on

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spectrum. And that's a topic that you and I have

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probably discussed a dozen times on this podcast.

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And so it will be interesting given Elon's current

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participation or maybe that's ended now. with

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the Trump administration. But if this does happen,

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it's going to have to be fairly divvied up from

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my perspective. But it will be interesting to

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see how this all winds out. But hey, let's go

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to your second topic. You want to talk about

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Apple. I love what you do. You like to read between

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the lines and do the research, but you've done

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some research and you believe that Apple may

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be preparing its focus on 6G. Yeah, I actually

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believe that. They probably already have people

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working on 6G. I think they're trying to hire

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more people. Whether those people are already

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experienced in the realm, it seems like that's

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their focus. They want people who are already

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developing 6G. And I think they want to be a

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bigger player in 6G than they were in 5G. Especially

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now that they have a 5G modem, they're going

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to need a 6G modem as well. And I think that

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they're going to need to build an IP portfolio.

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I also think they're going to need to... have

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a patent portfolio so that they can actually

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negotiate royalty rates with someone like a qualcomm

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to get better rates so that they don't have to

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pay as much even though they're using their own

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modem i think there's a lot of factors in this

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i think they also need to be prepared for 6g

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when it comes yeah i don't think they want to

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be as late to 5g as they were you know they're

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about five years late so i think they're we're

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really in a place where 6g They should already

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have had people involved. As far as I understand,

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they haven't really been that involved in the

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standard setting. I think that they are already

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late to a certain degree, but that has never

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really stopped Apple. But I do believe that they

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should be doing more active involvement in setting

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the standards and creating new IP, enabling new

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features, and hopefully they'll be a driver of

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things like XR. into the standard even though

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3gpp release 18 which is known as 5g advanced

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already has a lot of them i think apple as a

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smartphone manufacturer and modem creator should

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have a lot more influence in the 5g standard

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than they currently do today i agree and like

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you mentioned five years to 5g there there are

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a lot of challenges within that journey they

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probably learned a lot But there are examples

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of even like Qualcomm getting in front of, too

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far in front of lower orbit satellite connectivity,

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right? Before the standards were baked and they

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eventually had to abandon that, right? Yeah,

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it'll be interesting to see how this materializes.

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Obviously, Apple is a huge player when you just

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look at their very dominant market share and

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in smartphones, but that's not going to get the

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job done at the end of the day. So I totally

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agree with you. They're going to have to be.

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become more participant in helping steer the

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3GPP standards here for 6G. But hey, let's hit

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my third and final topic. We're being very efficient

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today. I want to talk about AWS. And in 2021,

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they launched a private 5G solution. Just this

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week. AWS has announced that it is ending its

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efforts in that regard. And I had several journalists

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reach out to me. And fortunately, it was when

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I was flying back to Paris. So you may not see

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any of my insights in any of those articles that

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are being written. But I'm not surprised to see

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this because it was very competitive with what

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the carriers like T -Mobile and AT &T are trying

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to do, number one. Number two, it wasn't complete

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and it was very complex when compared to offerings

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from, say, NTT in Salona as well. So from my

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standpoint, there were just too many hurdles,

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too much complexity to already navigate what's

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already a very complex endeavor with private

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cellular. But any additional thoughts from your

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perspective on where maybe AWS failed to deliver?

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I'm not totally surprised. I never really heard

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that much traction for this solution. I think

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this was more of a solution looking for a problem.

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I agree. And I think that there might be some

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opportunities down the road, but I'm not sure

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that it would be enough to stand up an entire

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business within AWS. And more likely, it's better

00:13:28.720 --> 00:13:31.580
served by startups and utilizing AWS infrastructure

00:13:31.580 --> 00:13:33.720
potentially, because I think that's what this

00:13:33.720 --> 00:13:36.019
play was. And I think it was just a little bit,

00:13:36.039 --> 00:13:38.120
to your point, too complicated for people to

00:13:38.120 --> 00:13:41.919
deploy as is. But I think they'll be back probably

00:13:41.919 --> 00:13:44.139
with something else and potentially partnered

00:13:44.139 --> 00:13:47.259
with a startup in the space. Yeah, telco is difficult,

00:13:47.519 --> 00:13:50.879
man. It is typically a low margin business. And

00:13:50.879 --> 00:13:53.799
that's evidenced by... sort of the hits or misses

00:13:53.799 --> 00:13:56.340
and really the longer tail adoption with private

00:13:56.340 --> 00:13:59.320
cellular in general and yeah when you look at

00:13:59.320 --> 00:14:02.139
microsoft azure and the fact that they've pretty

00:14:02.139 --> 00:14:04.960
much and they weren't necessarily focusing on

00:14:04.960 --> 00:14:08.580
private 5g services but they had a whole telecom

00:14:08.580 --> 00:14:12.139
group that's basically been disbanded. And so

00:14:12.139 --> 00:14:13.940
I think the hyperscalers have figured out, and

00:14:13.940 --> 00:14:16.259
there's all this promise around telco cloud as

00:14:16.259 --> 00:14:19.000
well. But at the end of the day, you've had the

00:14:19.000 --> 00:14:21.740
incumbents in the space, the infrastructure incumbents

00:14:21.740 --> 00:14:24.879
in the space from the likes of Ericsson and Nokia

00:14:24.879 --> 00:14:27.559
and Huawei that are doing telco clouds. From

00:14:27.559 --> 00:14:30.700
my perspective, hey, I understand the rationale

00:14:30.700 --> 00:14:33.480
for the hyperscalers to want to participate in

00:14:33.480 --> 00:14:35.419
this, but at the end of the day, it was probably

00:14:35.419 --> 00:14:37.860
just not a great fit for them. So interesting

00:14:37.860 --> 00:14:40.639
stuff. Let's hit your third and final topic.

00:14:40.700 --> 00:14:43.399
You want to talk about Xiaomi and they've launched

00:14:43.399 --> 00:14:47.980
a, I believe an SOC with ARM, right? Yeah. So

00:14:47.980 --> 00:14:50.419
we were talking about this, I think last week.

00:14:50.480 --> 00:14:53.100
Yeah. And it was my third and final topic that

00:14:53.100 --> 00:14:55.980
week too. So this is Xiaomi's new X -Ring 01.

00:14:56.679 --> 00:14:59.639
It's interesting because the rumors were that

00:14:59.639 --> 00:15:01.980
this was going to be more of a mainstream SOC,

00:15:02.059 --> 00:15:08.720
but it will utilize ARM's... ARM V9 Cortex CPUs

00:15:08.720 --> 00:15:11.779
and their Immortalis GPUs. What's interesting

00:15:11.779 --> 00:15:14.620
is that ARM posted a blog about this on their

00:15:14.620 --> 00:15:17.860
own website. And so they've been promoting it

00:15:17.860 --> 00:15:21.179
quite a bit as well. And yeah, it's really interesting

00:15:21.179 --> 00:15:25.419
because it's going to be debuted in Xiaomi's

00:15:25.419 --> 00:15:30.220
S15S Pro smartphones and their Pad 7 Ultra. So

00:15:30.220 --> 00:15:32.820
this is not necessarily their flagship phones

00:15:32.820 --> 00:15:35.230
and tablets, but it's more of a... upper middle

00:15:35.230 --> 00:15:37.429
tier and it's yeah it's really interesting because

00:15:37.429 --> 00:15:40.370
get different perspectives of how this competes

00:15:40.370 --> 00:15:44.370
with the rest of the market but truthfully i

00:15:44.370 --> 00:15:48.210
think this is a more of a play to potentially

00:15:48.210 --> 00:15:51.250
satisfy the chinese government with homegrown

00:15:51.250 --> 00:15:55.870
silicon it has a 10 core cpu with two of arm's

00:15:55.870 --> 00:15:59.230
latest x925 cores and then and then a bunch of

00:15:59.230 --> 00:16:02.299
other low power lower power cores and then it

00:16:02.299 --> 00:16:05.980
has a 16 core immortalis g925 so it's not using

00:16:05.980 --> 00:16:08.519
custom cpu cores it's using off -the -shelf cores

00:16:08.519 --> 00:16:11.720
from arm which are competitive but they're not

00:16:11.720 --> 00:16:15.700
top tier like apple and qualcomm's but yet so

00:16:15.700 --> 00:16:18.299
it's really interesting to see that this is happening

00:16:18.299 --> 00:16:21.460
at the same time that this happened xiaomi also

00:16:21.460 --> 00:16:25.059
announced a long -term agreement with qualcomm

00:16:25.059 --> 00:16:28.720
to continue to buy their chips for their flagship

00:16:29.289 --> 00:16:32.450
phones and for their cars it's really interesting

00:16:32.450 --> 00:16:35.129
the timing of these announcements and to see

00:16:35.129 --> 00:16:39.029
how these companies are jockeying for position

00:16:39.029 --> 00:16:42.909
in silicon space but i think that really what

00:16:42.909 --> 00:16:46.750
this is more of a an agreement to for xiaomi

00:16:46.750 --> 00:16:48.389
to build their own chips to keep the chinese

00:16:48.389 --> 00:16:50.909
government happy but also to work with qualcomm

00:16:50.909 --> 00:16:53.090
to get the latest fastest most advanced chips

00:16:53.090 --> 00:16:55.549
for the products because they've been working

00:16:55.549 --> 00:16:59.179
together for 15 years and This announcement was

00:16:59.179 --> 00:17:02.580
another extension of that partnership. They didn't

00:17:02.580 --> 00:17:05.140
really say how many years. It says multi -year

00:17:05.140 --> 00:17:07.799
agreement, but generally these tend to be three

00:17:07.799 --> 00:17:10.799
to five year agreements. And I think we will

00:17:10.799 --> 00:17:13.359
probably see Xiaomi continue to ship Qualcomm

00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:15.599
at the high end. And if anything, this might

00:17:15.599 --> 00:17:19.059
be more of a threat to media tech than Qualcomm

00:17:19.059 --> 00:17:21.519
specifically in terms of the high end. Although

00:17:21.519 --> 00:17:23.980
I will say Xiaomi does use both in their phones,

00:17:24.099 --> 00:17:28.250
but I do think that Xiaomi. wants to keep the

00:17:28.250 --> 00:17:30.690
Chinese government happy, but also still get

00:17:30.690 --> 00:17:33.150
the best chips. Yeah, they're a very prominent

00:17:33.150 --> 00:17:36.009
Chinese brand. And so I think it checks the box

00:17:36.009 --> 00:17:38.589
on Chinese domestic supply chain, number one.

00:17:38.730 --> 00:17:40.990
It also gives them some supply chain diversity,

00:17:41.210 --> 00:17:44.190
I would think. And then the third thought I have

00:17:44.190 --> 00:17:47.809
is that it could be a margin enhancement opportunity.

00:17:47.930 --> 00:17:50.750
As you mentioned, it's in the mid -tier, right?

00:17:50.869 --> 00:17:53.490
It's not the low end, but it's in the mid -tier.

00:17:54.430 --> 00:17:56.210
that it might be a margin enhancement opportunity

00:17:56.210 --> 00:17:58.769
for them as well. Yeah, I mean, I think it's

00:17:58.769 --> 00:18:01.990
always good to be supply chain diversified, even

00:18:01.990 --> 00:18:04.210
at the silicon level. Yeah, and I'll just add

00:18:04.210 --> 00:18:08.910
one thing. It's being fabbed at TSMC on the N3E

00:18:08.910 --> 00:18:11.990
node, which is actually a current node, which

00:18:11.990 --> 00:18:15.329
is the same as MediaTek's 9400. So it would actually

00:18:15.329 --> 00:18:17.609
be pretty close to performance to the MediaTek

00:18:17.609 --> 00:18:21.529
Dimensity 9400. But oddly enough, I don't know

00:18:21.529 --> 00:18:24.869
that Xiaomi... is on the banned entity list.

00:18:25.150 --> 00:18:28.869
So they can produce these at TSMC for the foreseeable

00:18:28.869 --> 00:18:31.990
future until someone decides that they are dangerous

00:18:31.990 --> 00:18:35.670
enough to be banned from using TSMC and other

00:18:35.670 --> 00:18:39.029
fab entities. So I don't know how they managed

00:18:39.029 --> 00:18:41.569
to get this done, but it might be that this is

00:18:41.569 --> 00:18:44.269
low enough volume that it's not a concern. And

00:18:44.269 --> 00:18:46.910
they're also a consumer brand, right? And so

00:18:46.910 --> 00:18:50.549
you don't... They don't do anything from an enterprise

00:18:50.549 --> 00:18:53.150
infrastructure perspective like ZTE and Huawei

00:18:53.150 --> 00:18:56.670
do, right? Correct. So I think because it's consumer,

00:18:56.769 --> 00:18:59.369
it's low risk. I own a couple of their scooters.

00:18:59.930 --> 00:19:02.349
Because they bought Ninebot, which then bought

00:19:02.349 --> 00:19:05.490
Segway. Yeah, yeah, that I keep at my condo in

00:19:05.490 --> 00:19:08.150
Isla Morada. But I think it's probably because

00:19:08.150 --> 00:19:11.049
they're a consumer kids company primarily, if

00:19:11.049 --> 00:19:14.670
not entirely, and it's low risk. But yeah, interesting

00:19:14.670 --> 00:19:16.509
stuff. Hey, my friend, we got through that pretty

00:19:16.509 --> 00:19:18.750
quickly. Given it's a three -day weekend upon

00:19:18.750 --> 00:19:21.549
us, why don't you take us home? Absolutely. We

00:19:21.549 --> 00:19:23.230
hope our viewers and listeners found this week's

00:19:23.230 --> 00:19:25.170
topics interesting. If anyone out there would

00:19:25.170 --> 00:19:27.009
like to provide insights for a specific 5G topic

00:19:27.009 --> 00:19:29.269
for a future podcast, please reach out to us

00:19:29.269 --> 00:19:31.849
on social media. Will is at WillTown Tech, and

00:19:31.849 --> 00:19:34.630
I'm at Entre Saug. We hope you have a great holiday

00:19:34.630 --> 00:19:36.710
weekend, and please tune in again next week,

00:19:36.730 --> 00:19:39.349
and don't forget to rate us and subscribe. And

00:19:39.349 --> 00:19:42.069
we wish all the best to all the veterans that

00:19:42.069 --> 00:19:44.250
have fought in all of these wars over the years.

00:19:44.349 --> 00:19:46.289
So happy Memorial Day. Thanks.
