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Welcome to episode 210 of the G2 on 5G.

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It's our last podcast for 2024.

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And it's always the latest inside scoop on everything 5G.

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We cover six topics in about 20 minutes and it's brought to you by more insights and strategy.

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I'm Will Townsend and joining me again this week is fellow analyst Anshul Sag.

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But before we get started, we got to apologize to our viewers and listeners.

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We have been remiss.

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Both Anshul and I have been on the road.

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We wanted to get this at one end before the end of the year.

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I'm in Florida.

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I'm at my home in the Florida Keys and trying to enjoy my time.

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And what are you up to this week, my friend?

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Mostly catch up for from all the travel, but also preparing for CES, which is in about

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a week.

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Yeah, that's going to be a big event.

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What are you expecting to see at CES this year?

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Even more AI than we saw last year.

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Shocking.

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But also, I would say you're going to see a lot more of like smart glasses and AI earbuds.

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I think we might get some 5G announcements, but I think most of those are being saved

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for MWC.

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Yeah, for sure.

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And remind me again, are you going to make it to MWC this year or next year?

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Uncertain.

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Okay.

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I didn't go last year because of the baby, but this year I'm just like on the fence about

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whether or not I'll go.

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But CES is the big one for me.

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I think Computex will probably happen for me.

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MWC is always on the fence depending on whether or not I think it's worth my time.

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Yeah, I hear you, man.

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I cover infrastructure, so it's a big event for me.

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I'll be there this year.

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But hey, without further ado, let's jump into it.

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You and I are going to do a couple of hot takes on the news like we normally do.

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And then because it's end of year, we're going to do a look back at 2024 and then a look

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forward into 2025.

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Yes.

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So with that context set, let me go to my first topic.

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In this news broke on Light Reading just before Christmas Day, more woes with Maveneer.

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So amid rumors of additional layoffs, a key executive has departed the company, John Baker.

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And I don't know if John, I've met him several times.

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Great guy.

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He's been in the industry for decades.

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He's an icon.

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He led Maveneer's business development effort as a senior vice president.

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He has left the company.

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And from my perspective, it doesn't really bode well.

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There's been a lot of news dating not only back to October around Maveneer's stability.

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Right now, if you look at their balance sheet and their cash on hand and you look at their

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obligations, they're out of gas.

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They're on their last seams.

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There were rumors several weeks ago around Aramco possibly injecting the company with

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funding.

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But that news has died down.

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And obviously Maveneer has been very focused on open around.

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They took a gamble.

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They've traditionally been very software centric and they took a gamble on and it was a big

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gamble, almost half a billion dollars in developing their own radios.

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And that obviously didn't go.

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They're also trying to expand into markets like India.

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India has stalled.

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They were in contention with Photophone for an initial tender that fell through.

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And this might be the company's last gas.

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John Baker was huge in driving new business for the company and that sort of thing.

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So I don't know.

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Did you catch this news?

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I did not catch this news, but I have thought that some people whom I've talked to that

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have worked at Maveneer have not spoken very highly of the management and the decisions

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they've made.

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It seems like there's just continuation of challenges is the best way of putting it.

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But I think when you look at like where they've, I think all of these things that they potentially

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had opportunities for, I genuinely think they had, but I also think that like sometimes

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companies and leadership have the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

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And I've heard that happen before at Maveneer.

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I have a feeling the Saudi Aramco deal was probable, but they probably asked for too

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much equity in that transaction.

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And maybe they lost the Photophone tender for a legitimate reason.

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I think that they might just end up becoming an IP play and someone will just acquire them.

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And it sounds like they're already laying off a lot of people.

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I think you're right that their days may be numbered if someone doesn't swoop in and save

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them.

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But I think that it's unfortunate because we may see some real good potential in 2025

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with Open RAN and the growth of software defined 5G and AI accelerated networks.

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Yeah, I totally agree.

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And the company bet big in two areas, Open RAN and private networks.

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And both have had a long tail from an adoption perspective.

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And the investment in radios, that may be their undoing long term.

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I don't know if the company is too big to fail because when you look at what the US

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government wants to do in domesticating the supply chain for cellular infrastructure,

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Maveneer is a big player, like you mentioned software defined.

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So it'll be really interesting to see how things wind out next year.

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I could easily see like a Palantir or someone in the defense sector that wants to have a

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piece of telecom buy them, right?

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I could see them being bought pretty cheaply by some US already certified by the US government

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supplier, even maybe someone who actually makes boxes like Dell.

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So I think it really just comes down to the price being right.

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But sometimes the price isn't right and then the price becomes right.

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So we'll see.

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But yeah, it's been really unfortunate.

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I don't like to wish any company ill.

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I want there to be success and competition.

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And it just seems like they're struggling a lot.

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Yeah, for sure.

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We'll keep our eyes and ears open on this one and report back as things develop.

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Let's go to your first topic.

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You want to talk about the incoming Trump administration and the expectation around

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freeing lower three gigahertz spectrum for 5G.

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Yeah.

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So there is a lot of talk.

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This is not official, but there's a lot of talk about taking some of the lower three

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gigahertz band, about 150 megahertz of it, and to allocate it for an auction, which would

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be another big auction under Trump.

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And I think this is partially through their view that the US government should be making

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money off of things like this.

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And obviously, it would probably be another huge auction.

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Some rumors say there would be $100 billion to move all of this equipment off that band.

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So it would be a very expensive auction.

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And I think that's one of the challenges is that if this is a very expensive spectrum

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to reallocate, then it might not be worth it.

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Because as we remember that last auction, not the 110, but the C band auction was colossal

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for the government.

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There were a lot of costs associated with it as well, especially when it comes to clearing.

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And the reality is that Carr, Brandon Carr, who's going to become, I think he already

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has been announced as the chair of the FCC for the next administration, has already expressed

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his interest in it.

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So that was in 2021.

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And he also referenced the topic in his Project 2025 essay.

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It's very likely going to happen.

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But I also think that there will be some financial challenges associated with that.

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And perhaps, maybe they should plan it out a little bit better this time.

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So I don't know what your thoughts are on this, but what do you think?

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The big question I have is, I've talked about this on prior podcasts, the FCC hasn't been

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given the ability to allocate spectrum since March of this year.

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We've got two more days before the end of the year.

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We have a new administration coming in.

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We have a changing of the guard.

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The current FCC chairwoman obviously will be leaving.

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And from your perspective, how does that situation affect this?

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I mean, it further, from my perspective, further delays allocation at any spectrum.

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It's a fundamental congressional issue because Congress is the one who authorizes this, but

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Congress has been less than functional for quite some time.

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Yeah, it's being timed.

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And it's showing.

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I think ultimately the reason why Congress's approval ratings are so low is because they're

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not even doing their bare minimum.

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I'm not going to talk about the Congress lady who was missing, but how do we have people

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who are sitting members of Congress that are missing for six months?

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That are, yeah, they're not voting.

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Yeah.

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It's funny that we're talking about this because my second topic is somewhat related to this.

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And this news broke, I think it was on the 20th.

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So the US Senate voted to pass a bill to fund the rip and replace of Chinese infrastructure,

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ZTE and Huawei.

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And the recommendation has, and you and I have talked about this, the hundreds of millions

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here and there are just a drop in the bucket given the enormity of what's involved here.

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But the Senate did pass a bill to fund $3 billion to do this.

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Now it does have to go to president elect Trump for ratification and for approval, but

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this is a big deal, right?

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Three billion should move the needle on the rip and replace in rural.

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What do you think?

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I think it's, I'm not sure it's enough to be honest with you.

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I think it's probably going to cover the majority of costs, but I think we've discussed this

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before.

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Most people say it's more than $3 billion to rip and replace.

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I think if you just pay for the hardware, maybe it's $3 billion, but there's labor associated

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with rip and replace.

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Integration.

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Yep.

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So I think it's probably going to be closer to $5 billion or $6 billion in terms of cost,

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but ultimately it's got to be done.

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And it's interesting because I actually think this is a more valid government involvement

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in terms of critical 5G infrastructure, as opposed to the things we're seeing with wifi

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routers and TP link and calls for them to be banned as well.

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But I think this is a much more critical and necessary thing because the truth is, I have

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I just don't think we should have Chinese vendors in our 5G infrastructure.

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And I think this is a good down payment, but I don't think it's going to pay for everything.

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And they might end up having to authorize more funds to finish it off, but this feels

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like it's taking way too long.

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Way too long.

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We've been having this conversation for the better part of so many years.

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I think since the beginning of this podcast and we're in what year four.

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Right.

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Yeah, it's been too long.

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It's been a long time.

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It'll be interesting to see how things unfold next year after the inauguration and that

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sort of thing.

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But interesting stuff.

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Hey, let's go to your second topic and you want to talk about MediaTac.

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I've been really impressed with the company.

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They have really been making a lot of inroads and really building market momentum.

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And you want to talk about the possibility of their 5G modems finding their way to Pixel

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phones.

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Yes.

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So there was a rumor, I think it came out about last week.

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And the thing is that it's not verified.

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And the truth is MediaTac will never, even if they ship it in the Pixel, they won't ever

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say they did.

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Probably have to wait till that gets broken down in a tear down of some sort, or someone

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finds it in software.

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But this was a rumor that's been spreading for the last couple of weeks.

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And it's funny because the current Pixel modem is a Samsung.

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And I have the current Pixel modem right here in the Pixel 9 Pro Fold.

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There we go.

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I actually have a review of this coming out very soon.

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I also have a review of the Moto Razr Plus 2024 edition.

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Watch for those.

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Those will be out in Forbes.

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I also have another phone review coming out, another 5G phone in a week or two that's already

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written.

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So I'm just churning these reviews out.

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I will also have a favorite phones of 2024 review coming out as well.

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So lots of 5G phone content coming for me.

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But getting back to the topic at hand, one of my biggest complaints about this phone

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and the Samsung Moda in it was roaming sucked.

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And whenever I had bad signal, it struggled to get back on the cell network.

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Like literally, I just would not get service.

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The only way to fix it was to toggle the airplane mode and then it would work, which is insane.

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But that's a really bad modem.

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Samsung doesn't even use that a modem.

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It's that bad.

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They actually use that modem in their phone.

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So the upcoming S25 will most likely use 100% Qualcomm modems across all regions everywhere.

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So if Samsung is going to Qualcomm for modems...

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That tells you something, right?

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And the truth is, I think MediaTek is a very valid partner.

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And I think people should consider them when looking at modems.

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I think Apple should have looked at them as well and they didn't.

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And I'm not really sure why.

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But I have a feeling the Pixel 10 will be a better device with a MediaTek modem in it.

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And maybe we see Apple, but realistically, Apple has their own modem.

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So I feel like they might just skip using MediaTek and go from Qualcomm straight to

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their modem.

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And that's a whole discussion for next year.

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And we can talk about that in our last topics.

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Yeah, let's do that.

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So let's hit our third and final each.

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And what we want to do for this is we want to do a look back to this year and a look

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forward.

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I've been struggling to come up.

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I've got to look forward, but I've been struggling.

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And what was the biggest news from a cellular infrastructure perspective this year?

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So I'm going to put you on the spot.

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You've always got an opinion about this stuff.

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So what do you think?

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On the 5G infrastructure side?

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Yeah.

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I would say...

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Is it standalone?

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Is it like we're finally seeing operators moved to standalone with Core?

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I think if anything, 2024 was almost like a seeding year for 2025.

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Now if you look at T-Mobile and let's say Reliance Geo, I think they're much further

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ahead of the rest of the market in deploying standalone and having a network that's actually

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ready for new applications.

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I think so many things were announced in 2024 that set the stage for 2025.

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A lot of the T-Mobile AI infrastructure updates.

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I think 2024 is like a setup year for 2025 to be really just like big announcements,

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big developments.

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For me, I actually am going to be writing a...

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And I have the bullets here so I can read off of them.

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I think satellite will become increasingly prominent, especially with Starlink and T-Mobile

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launching their service.

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There'll be increased momentum from AST Space Mobile.

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We know that's coming.

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And then we also saw the ESA and Telesat do their 5G NTN test.

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I think satellite is becoming more integrated into 5G.

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And then I said that AI will continue to become more crucial across network operations, device

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uses, and the interface between devices and networks.

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And then hybrid AI will drive more 5G demand.

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And Nvidia's role in 5G will increase significantly thanks to AI.

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And then I have to talk about more spectrum, possibly becoming available in the 3 GHz band.

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But I also said that probably won't happen in 2025, but might be set in motion under

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Trump.

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And then network slicing gains more momentum.

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And then I have some 5G phone predictions, which you'll have to read the article for.

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And then a state of 5G PCs and AI PCs on Windows and Snapdragon.

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So I got a lot going on.

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That's why I'm not resting.

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Holidays are a farce to me.

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I've been working nonstop almost every day.

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So you've been prolific, buddy, like with your research notes and your analyst insights

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on the more insights and strategy website, your Forbes articles.

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I had a slew of client work and it slowed me down there, but it's funny.

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So you stole a little bit of my thunder on my 2025 projection.

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And I'm projecting that 2025 is the year of the fifth zodiac.

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And do you know what the fifth zodiac is?

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I have no idea.

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I saw that in your notes and I had no clue what you were talking about.

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I didn't even bother to Google it.

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I was like, you're just going to surprise me.

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It's Leo.

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So that's funny.

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And also the astrological sign.

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So that's I agree with you.

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I think in 2025, and I also agree with you that AI is going to become more integrated,

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especially into the RAN.

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And I also agree with you that Nvidia is doing a lot of great work there.

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It's potentially going to be part of the 6G standard when 3GPP gets to that point.

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But I do believe that 2025 will be the year of Leo.

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We're going to see you and I, T-Mobile have already reached out to you and I to put us

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on the beta for the Starlink service.

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We spent a lot of time with AST Space Mobile as well at Mobile World Congress.

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I'll be spending time with Satellite and others that are doing narrowband IoT over satellite.

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I think you're going to see a lot happen with low Earth orbit satellite in 2025.

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And you're certainly going to see AST Space Mobile put more birds in the air as well.

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So I think it's super exciting.

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There are some doubters.

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I've been reading various articles as I've been on vacation the last week and a half

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that are doubting the ability for direct to cell unmodified cell to really scale.

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And I think that will wind, it'll wind itself out and truth will be told next year.

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But I do think 2025 will be the year of the fifth zodiac.

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You already talked about a lot of predictions.

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Anything else you want to share before we wrap it up?

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Other than I have my hands on a Xiaomi 15 Pro, which is a Chinese phone, but it has

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an crazy camera array if you look at it and a huge camera bump.

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Very excited to write a review on this one.

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I need more time to give my thoughts, but not really anything crazy in terms of new

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thoughts.

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I've rapid fired them off, but I do think that 5G will be a lot more exciting in 2025.

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And I think we will see a lot more glimpses of 6G.

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And I honestly, at this point, I feel like 6G is just going to be 5G with a ton of AI.

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With a lot of AI.

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Yeah, I would agree with you on that one.

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Hey, my friend, it's been way too long since we've done one of these.

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I'm glad we're able to squeeze one in before the end of the year.

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Why don't you take us home?

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Absolutely.

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We hope our viewers and listeners found this week's topics interesting.

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If anyone out there like provide insights for a specific topic for a future podcast,

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please reach out to us on social media.

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Will's at WillTontact and I'm at Antro Sog.

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We hope you have a great new year and please tune in again next week and next year.

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And don't forget to rate us and subscribe.

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Happy New Year.

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Happy New Year.