Welcome to episode 210 of the G2 on 5G.
It's our last podcast for 2024.
And it's always the latest inside scoop on everything 5G.
We cover six topics in about 20 minutes and it's brought to you by more insights and strategy.
I'm Will Townsend and joining me again this week is fellow analyst Anshul Sag.
But before we get started, we got to apologize to our viewers and listeners.
We have been remiss.
Both Anshul and I have been on the road.
We wanted to get this at one end before the end of the year.
I'm in Florida.
I'm at my home in the Florida Keys and trying to enjoy my time.
And what are you up to this week, my friend?
Mostly catch up for from all the travel, but also preparing for CES, which is in about
a week.
Yeah, that's going to be a big event.
What are you expecting to see at CES this year?
Even more AI than we saw last year.
Shocking.
But also, I would say you're going to see a lot more of like smart glasses and AI earbuds.
I think we might get some 5G announcements, but I think most of those are being saved
for MWC.
Yeah, for sure.
And remind me again, are you going to make it to MWC this year or next year?
Uncertain.
Okay.
I didn't go last year because of the baby, but this year I'm just like on the fence about
whether or not I'll go.
But CES is the big one for me.
I think Computex will probably happen for me.
MWC is always on the fence depending on whether or not I think it's worth my time.
Yeah, I hear you, man.
I cover infrastructure, so it's a big event for me.
I'll be there this year.
But hey, without further ado, let's jump into it.
You and I are going to do a couple of hot takes on the news like we normally do.
And then because it's end of year, we're going to do a look back at 2024 and then a look
forward into 2025.
Yes.
So with that context set, let me go to my first topic.
In this news broke on Light Reading just before Christmas Day, more woes with Maveneer.
So amid rumors of additional layoffs, a key executive has departed the company, John Baker.
And I don't know if John, I've met him several times.
Great guy.
He's been in the industry for decades.
He's an icon.
He led Maveneer's business development effort as a senior vice president.
He has left the company.
And from my perspective, it doesn't really bode well.
There's been a lot of news dating not only back to October around Maveneer's stability.
Right now, if you look at their balance sheet and their cash on hand and you look at their
obligations, they're out of gas.
They're on their last seams.
There were rumors several weeks ago around Aramco possibly injecting the company with
funding.
But that news has died down.
And obviously Maveneer has been very focused on open around.
They took a gamble.
They've traditionally been very software centric and they took a gamble on and it was a big
gamble, almost half a billion dollars in developing their own radios.
And that obviously didn't go.
They're also trying to expand into markets like India.
India has stalled.
They were in contention with Photophone for an initial tender that fell through.
And this might be the company's last gas.
John Baker was huge in driving new business for the company and that sort of thing.
So I don't know.
Did you catch this news?
I did not catch this news, but I have thought that some people whom I've talked to that
have worked at Maveneer have not spoken very highly of the management and the decisions
they've made.
It seems like there's just continuation of challenges is the best way of putting it.
But I think when you look at like where they've, I think all of these things that they potentially
had opportunities for, I genuinely think they had, but I also think that like sometimes
companies and leadership have the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
And I've heard that happen before at Maveneer.
I have a feeling the Saudi Aramco deal was probable, but they probably asked for too
much equity in that transaction.
And maybe they lost the Photophone tender for a legitimate reason.
I think that they might just end up becoming an IP play and someone will just acquire them.
And it sounds like they're already laying off a lot of people.
I think you're right that their days may be numbered if someone doesn't swoop in and save
them.
But I think that it's unfortunate because we may see some real good potential in 2025
with Open RAN and the growth of software defined 5G and AI accelerated networks.
Yeah, I totally agree.
And the company bet big in two areas, Open RAN and private networks.
And both have had a long tail from an adoption perspective.
And the investment in radios, that may be their undoing long term.
I don't know if the company is too big to fail because when you look at what the US
government wants to do in domesticating the supply chain for cellular infrastructure,
Maveneer is a big player, like you mentioned software defined.
So it'll be really interesting to see how things wind out next year.
I could easily see like a Palantir or someone in the defense sector that wants to have a
piece of telecom buy them, right?
I could see them being bought pretty cheaply by some US already certified by the US government
supplier, even maybe someone who actually makes boxes like Dell.
So I think it really just comes down to the price being right.
But sometimes the price isn't right and then the price becomes right.
So we'll see.
But yeah, it's been really unfortunate.
I don't like to wish any company ill.
I want there to be success and competition.
And it just seems like they're struggling a lot.
Yeah, for sure.
We'll keep our eyes and ears open on this one and report back as things develop.
Let's go to your first topic.
You want to talk about the incoming Trump administration and the expectation around
freeing lower three gigahertz spectrum for 5G.
Yeah.
So there is a lot of talk.
This is not official, but there's a lot of talk about taking some of the lower three
gigahertz band, about 150 megahertz of it, and to allocate it for an auction, which would
be another big auction under Trump.
And I think this is partially through their view that the US government should be making
money off of things like this.
And obviously, it would probably be another huge auction.
Some rumors say there would be $100 billion to move all of this equipment off that band.
So it would be a very expensive auction.
And I think that's one of the challenges is that if this is a very expensive spectrum
to reallocate, then it might not be worth it.
Because as we remember that last auction, not the 110, but the C band auction was colossal
for the government.
There were a lot of costs associated with it as well, especially when it comes to clearing.
And the reality is that Carr, Brandon Carr, who's going to become, I think he already
has been announced as the chair of the FCC for the next administration, has already expressed
his interest in it.
So that was in 2021.
And he also referenced the topic in his Project 2025 essay.
It's very likely going to happen.
But I also think that there will be some financial challenges associated with that.
And perhaps, maybe they should plan it out a little bit better this time.
So I don't know what your thoughts are on this, but what do you think?
The big question I have is, I've talked about this on prior podcasts, the FCC hasn't been
given the ability to allocate spectrum since March of this year.
We've got two more days before the end of the year.
We have a new administration coming in.
We have a changing of the guard.
The current FCC chairwoman obviously will be leaving.
And from your perspective, how does that situation affect this?
I mean, it further, from my perspective, further delays allocation at any spectrum.
It's a fundamental congressional issue because Congress is the one who authorizes this, but
Congress has been less than functional for quite some time.
Yeah, it's being timed.
And it's showing.
I think ultimately the reason why Congress's approval ratings are so low is because they're
not even doing their bare minimum.
I'm not going to talk about the Congress lady who was missing, but how do we have people
who are sitting members of Congress that are missing for six months?
That are, yeah, they're not voting.
Yeah.
It's funny that we're talking about this because my second topic is somewhat related to this.
And this news broke, I think it was on the 20th.
So the US Senate voted to pass a bill to fund the rip and replace of Chinese infrastructure,
ZTE and Huawei.
And the recommendation has, and you and I have talked about this, the hundreds of millions
here and there are just a drop in the bucket given the enormity of what's involved here.
But the Senate did pass a bill to fund $3 billion to do this.
Now it does have to go to president elect Trump for ratification and for approval, but
this is a big deal, right?
Three billion should move the needle on the rip and replace in rural.
What do you think?
I think it's, I'm not sure it's enough to be honest with you.
I think it's probably going to cover the majority of costs, but I think we've discussed this
before.
Most people say it's more than $3 billion to rip and replace.
I think if you just pay for the hardware, maybe it's $3 billion, but there's labor associated
with rip and replace.
Integration.
Yep.
So I think it's probably going to be closer to $5 billion or $6 billion in terms of cost,
but ultimately it's got to be done.
And it's interesting because I actually think this is a more valid government involvement
in terms of critical 5G infrastructure, as opposed to the things we're seeing with wifi
routers and TP link and calls for them to be banned as well.
But I think this is a much more critical and necessary thing because the truth is, I have
I just don't think we should have Chinese vendors in our 5G infrastructure.
And I think this is a good down payment, but I don't think it's going to pay for everything.
And they might end up having to authorize more funds to finish it off, but this feels
like it's taking way too long.
Way too long.
We've been having this conversation for the better part of so many years.
I think since the beginning of this podcast and we're in what year four.
Right.
Yeah, it's been too long.
It's been a long time.
It'll be interesting to see how things unfold next year after the inauguration and that
sort of thing.
But interesting stuff.
Hey, let's go to your second topic and you want to talk about MediaTac.
I've been really impressed with the company.
They have really been making a lot of inroads and really building market momentum.
And you want to talk about the possibility of their 5G modems finding their way to Pixel
phones.
Yes.
So there was a rumor, I think it came out about last week.
And the thing is that it's not verified.
And the truth is MediaTac will never, even if they ship it in the Pixel, they won't ever
say they did.
Probably have to wait till that gets broken down in a tear down of some sort, or someone
finds it in software.
But this was a rumor that's been spreading for the last couple of weeks.
And it's funny because the current Pixel modem is a Samsung.
And I have the current Pixel modem right here in the Pixel 9 Pro Fold.
There we go.
I actually have a review of this coming out very soon.
I also have a review of the Moto Razr Plus 2024 edition.
Watch for those.
Those will be out in Forbes.
I also have another phone review coming out, another 5G phone in a week or two that's already
written.
So I'm just churning these reviews out.
I will also have a favorite phones of 2024 review coming out as well.
So lots of 5G phone content coming for me.
But getting back to the topic at hand, one of my biggest complaints about this phone
and the Samsung Moda in it was roaming sucked.
And whenever I had bad signal, it struggled to get back on the cell network.
Like literally, I just would not get service.
The only way to fix it was to toggle the airplane mode and then it would work, which is insane.
But that's a really bad modem.
Samsung doesn't even use that a modem.
It's that bad.
They actually use that modem in their phone.
So the upcoming S25 will most likely use 100% Qualcomm modems across all regions everywhere.
So if Samsung is going to Qualcomm for modems...
That tells you something, right?
And the truth is, I think MediaTek is a very valid partner.
And I think people should consider them when looking at modems.
I think Apple should have looked at them as well and they didn't.
And I'm not really sure why.
But I have a feeling the Pixel 10 will be a better device with a MediaTek modem in it.
And maybe we see Apple, but realistically, Apple has their own modem.
So I feel like they might just skip using MediaTek and go from Qualcomm straight to
their modem.
And that's a whole discussion for next year.
And we can talk about that in our last topics.
Yeah, let's do that.
So let's hit our third and final each.
And what we want to do for this is we want to do a look back to this year and a look
forward.
I've been struggling to come up.
I've got to look forward, but I've been struggling.
And what was the biggest news from a cellular infrastructure perspective this year?
So I'm going to put you on the spot.
You've always got an opinion about this stuff.
So what do you think?
On the 5G infrastructure side?
Yeah.
I would say...
Is it standalone?
Is it like we're finally seeing operators moved to standalone with Core?
I think if anything, 2024 was almost like a seeding year for 2025.
Now if you look at T-Mobile and let's say Reliance Geo, I think they're much further
ahead of the rest of the market in deploying standalone and having a network that's actually
ready for new applications.
I think so many things were announced in 2024 that set the stage for 2025.
A lot of the T-Mobile AI infrastructure updates.
I think 2024 is like a setup year for 2025 to be really just like big announcements,
big developments.
For me, I actually am going to be writing a...
And I have the bullets here so I can read off of them.
I think satellite will become increasingly prominent, especially with Starlink and T-Mobile
launching their service.
There'll be increased momentum from AST Space Mobile.
We know that's coming.
And then we also saw the ESA and Telesat do their 5G NTN test.
I think satellite is becoming more integrated into 5G.
And then I said that AI will continue to become more crucial across network operations, device
uses, and the interface between devices and networks.
And then hybrid AI will drive more 5G demand.
And Nvidia's role in 5G will increase significantly thanks to AI.
And then I have to talk about more spectrum, possibly becoming available in the 3 GHz band.
But I also said that probably won't happen in 2025, but might be set in motion under
Trump.
And then network slicing gains more momentum.
And then I have some 5G phone predictions, which you'll have to read the article for.
And then a state of 5G PCs and AI PCs on Windows and Snapdragon.
So I got a lot going on.
That's why I'm not resting.
Holidays are a farce to me.
I've been working nonstop almost every day.
So you've been prolific, buddy, like with your research notes and your analyst insights
on the more insights and strategy website, your Forbes articles.
I had a slew of client work and it slowed me down there, but it's funny.
So you stole a little bit of my thunder on my 2025 projection.
And I'm projecting that 2025 is the year of the fifth zodiac.
And do you know what the fifth zodiac is?
I have no idea.
I saw that in your notes and I had no clue what you were talking about.
I didn't even bother to Google it.
I was like, you're just going to surprise me.
It's Leo.
So that's funny.
And also the astrological sign.
So that's I agree with you.
I think in 2025, and I also agree with you that AI is going to become more integrated,
especially into the RAN.
And I also agree with you that Nvidia is doing a lot of great work there.
It's potentially going to be part of the 6G standard when 3GPP gets to that point.
But I do believe that 2025 will be the year of Leo.
We're going to see you and I, T-Mobile have already reached out to you and I to put us
on the beta for the Starlink service.
We spent a lot of time with AST Space Mobile as well at Mobile World Congress.
I'll be spending time with Satellite and others that are doing narrowband IoT over satellite.
I think you're going to see a lot happen with low Earth orbit satellite in 2025.
And you're certainly going to see AST Space Mobile put more birds in the air as well.
So I think it's super exciting.
There are some doubters.
I've been reading various articles as I've been on vacation the last week and a half
that are doubting the ability for direct to cell unmodified cell to really scale.
And I think that will wind, it'll wind itself out and truth will be told next year.
But I do think 2025 will be the year of the fifth zodiac.
You already talked about a lot of predictions.
Anything else you want to share before we wrap it up?
Other than I have my hands on a Xiaomi 15 Pro, which is a Chinese phone, but it has
an crazy camera array if you look at it and a huge camera bump.
Very excited to write a review on this one.
I need more time to give my thoughts, but not really anything crazy in terms of new
thoughts.
I've rapid fired them off, but I do think that 5G will be a lot more exciting in 2025.
And I think we will see a lot more glimpses of 6G.
And I honestly, at this point, I feel like 6G is just going to be 5G with a ton of AI.
With a lot of AI.
Yeah, I would agree with you on that one.
Hey, my friend, it's been way too long since we've done one of these.
I'm glad we're able to squeeze one in before the end of the year.
Why don't you take us home?
Absolutely.
We hope our viewers and listeners found this week's topics interesting.
If anyone out there like provide insights for a specific topic for a future podcast,
please reach out to us on social media.
Will's at WillTontact and I'm at Antro Sog.
We hope you have a great new year and please tune in again next week and next year.
And don't forget to rate us and subscribe.
Happy New Year.