WEBVTT

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Circuit Brief September 24, 2026, Morning Briefing

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Today's brief is called, Yields Do the Talking.

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Good morning. This is the Circuit Brief. Markets

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fell again yesterday, and the story underneath

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it is the same one that's been building since

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the Fed's hike earlier this week, bond yields,

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not stocks, are running the show right now. Start

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with the close. The S &P 500 dropped about three

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-quarters of a percent to just over 7 ,700. The

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Nasdaq fell harder, down a little over 1%. weighed

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down by the same rate -sensitive tech names that

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had been carrying the market higher through the

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summer. The Dow lost around 350 points. The reason

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is the 10 -year Treasury yield, which climbed

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to around 5 .11%, its highest level since 2007.

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That's not a small move. A 10 -year yield at

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that level changes the math on every growth stock

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valuation built on the assumption that money

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stays cheap. It also raises borrowing costs directly,

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for mortgages, for corporate debt, for anything

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financed rather than paid for in cash. What pushed

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yields up was a stronger than expected reading

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on business activity, the S &P Global PMI survey,

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which showed new orders climbing in both input

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and output prices rising at multi -year highs.

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Good news on growth, in other words, but the

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kind of good news that makes another Fed rate

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hike this year look more likely rather than less,

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since a central bank fighting inflation does

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not want to see prices accelerating in the same

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data that shows the economy still running hot.

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That's the pattern worth understanding if you

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only remember one thing from today, right now,

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strong economic data is bad news for stocks,

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because it raises the odds of more tightening,

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and weak data is read as good news for the same

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reason in reverse. That inversion tends to happen

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at exactly this point in a hiking cycle, when

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the market is more worried about the Fed's next

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move than about the economy's underlying health.

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Futures this morning are pointing lower again.

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NASDAQ futures are down around 1%, Dow futures

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off close to 200 points, S &P futures down around

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0 .6 % as yields continue climbing into the new

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session. On oil, Brent crude rebounded back above

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the $100 mark, adding to the inflation pressure

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the Fed is already watching closely. Higher energy

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costs feed directly into the same input price

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data that spooked markets yesterday, which is

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part of why this is being read as a genuine complication

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rather than an isolated commodity move. Overseas,

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the same story is playing out with local variations.

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Indian markets, which had actually opened higher

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earlier in the week on retreating oil prices,

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reversed hard. with the Sensex and Nifty both

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dropping as the same combination hit them, rising

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global bond yields, oil back above $100, and

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growing bets that the Reserve Bank of India may

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need to follow the Fed's lead with a hike of

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its own. For today, the calendar is light on

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major releases but heavy on Fed voices. Weekly

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jobless claims and building permits data are

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due. alongside scheduled remarks from three Fed

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officials, Williams, Barkin, and Hammock, any

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of whom could move the rate hike odds further

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depending on how they characterize the inflation

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picture. In this kind of environment, a single

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sentence from a regional Fed president carries

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more weight for markets than most earnings reports

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would. On the engineering side, the story to

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watch continues to be how quickly AI infrastructure

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spending can keep justifying itself against a

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rising cost of capital. Every basis point added

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to the 10 -year yield makes the enormous, multi

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-year buildouts data centers, custom silicon,

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grid capacity a little more expensive to finance,

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without changing the underlying bet that the

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demand for compute keeps growing regardless.

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That tension hasn't broken yet. It's just getting

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more expensive to hold. That's the brief for

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today. Yields are setting the tone, the Fed's

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next move is the open question everyone's actually

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trading around, and oil back above $100 just

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added one more reason for policymakers to stay

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cautious rather than pause. We'll be back tomorrow

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with what moved and why it mattered. this has

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been the circuit brief thank you for listening