Hi. As an actuary, I spend much of my career
helping people manage uncertainty. Insurance
is really about making uncertain events more
manageable. Now, most of us do not know whether
our house will ever catch fire. We do not know
whether we will need expensive medical care,
and we do not know how long we will live. On
our own, these uncertainties can be overwhelming.
But by pooling the risk across thousands or even
millions of people, insurance companies can offer
a solution. They offer a promise. If something
unexpected happens, they will help cover the
loss. And that is a beautiful way to apply probability.
It brings stability to an uncertain world. But
even then, there are limits. No insurance company
can guarantee it will exist forever. And no investment
can guarantee future returns. No contract can
eliminate every possible risk. Probability can
reduce uncertainty, but it cannot remove it.
And of course, that's true of life in many ways.
We all long for guarantees. Will this job last?
Will this relationship flourish? Will my children
be okay? And will tomorrow unfold the way I hope?
None of us know. And yet, every day, we continue
living. We make plans and we build friendships,
we start businesses, we get married, we have
children, and we act without guarantees. Maybe
probability teaches us that life is not about
waiting until uncertainty disappears. It's about
making wise decisions with the information we
have today. We can gather evidence and we can
weigh possibilities. And then we can move forward.
Not because we know the future, but because we've
learned enough to take the next step. And when
I think of uncertainty, I think of probability,
but I also think of faith. Faith is learning
to walk forward. without knowing every step.
Faith is trusting when certainty is not available.
Probability helps us think wisely about an uncertain
future, but faith gives us the courage to walk
into it. So here's my question for you. What
decisions are you postponing because you are
waiting for certainty that may never come? Well,
tomorrow, we'll take a step back and look at
the bigger picture. We will look at events that
seem completely unpredictable, but begin to reveal
surprising patterns.