WEBVTT

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Hi. As an actuary, I spend much of my career

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helping people manage uncertainty. Insurance

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is really about making uncertain events more

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manageable. Now, most of us do not know whether

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our house will ever catch fire. We do not know

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whether we will need expensive medical care,

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and we do not know how long we will live. On

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our own, these uncertainties can be overwhelming.

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But by pooling the risk across thousands or even

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millions of people, insurance companies can offer

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a solution. They offer a promise. If something

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unexpected happens, they will help cover the

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loss. And that is a beautiful way to apply probability.

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It brings stability to an uncertain world. But

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even then, there are limits. No insurance company

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can guarantee it will exist forever. And no investment

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can guarantee future returns. No contract can

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eliminate every possible risk. Probability can

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reduce uncertainty, but it cannot remove it.

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And of course, that's true of life in many ways.

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We all long for guarantees. Will this job last?

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Will this relationship flourish? Will my children

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be okay? And will tomorrow unfold the way I hope?

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None of us know. And yet, every day, we continue

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living. We make plans and we build friendships,

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we start businesses, we get married, we have

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children, and we act without guarantees. Maybe

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probability teaches us that life is not about

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waiting until uncertainty disappears. It's about

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making wise decisions with the information we

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have today. We can gather evidence and we can

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weigh possibilities. And then we can move forward.

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Not because we know the future, but because we've

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learned enough to take the next step. And when

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I think of uncertainty, I think of probability,

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but I also think of faith. Faith is learning

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to walk forward. without knowing every step.

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Faith is trusting when certainty is not available.

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Probability helps us think wisely about an uncertain

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future, but faith gives us the courage to walk

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into it. So here's my question for you. What

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decisions are you postponing because you are

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waiting for certainty that may never come? Well,

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tomorrow, we'll take a step back and look at

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the bigger picture. We will look at events that

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seem completely unpredictable, but begin to reveal

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surprising patterns.