WEBVTT 00:00:01.739 --> 00:00:05.620 Hi. Ever since I can remember, I knew exactly 00:00:05.620 --> 00:00:10.019 what I wanted to do. I wanted to be a math teacher. 00:00:10.460 --> 00:00:15.240 It seemed like the perfect fit. I loved mathematics. 00:00:15.699 --> 00:00:18.460 Both my parents were teachers, and I attended 00:00:18.460 --> 00:00:21.899 an excellent university to become a math teacher. 00:00:22.399 --> 00:00:26.719 I worked hard, and I earned good grades. And 00:00:26.719 --> 00:00:29.199 then when I graduated from college, everything 00:00:29.199 --> 00:00:33.439 pointed toward a bright future. A bright, certain 00:00:33.439 --> 00:00:39.780 future. Until I started applying for my math 00:00:39.780 --> 00:00:42.479 teaching jobs. And the answer was always the 00:00:42.479 --> 00:00:48.100 same. No. Again and again. It was devastating. 00:00:48.759 --> 00:00:51.500 I had done everything I thought I was supposed 00:00:51.500 --> 00:00:56.179 to do. The future I had imagined suddenly disappeared. 00:00:56.740 --> 00:01:01.579 My certain life suddenly became uncertain. And 00:01:01.579 --> 00:01:07.540 I had no plan B. Perhaps you've experienced something 00:01:07.540 --> 00:01:11.200 similar. Maybe a career that did not unfold as 00:01:11.200 --> 00:01:14.280 you expected. Or a relationship that changed. 00:01:14.620 --> 00:01:17.939 Or maybe a diagnosis that you never imagined. 00:01:19.260 --> 00:01:24.239 The truth is, uncertainty is ingrained into nearly 00:01:24.239 --> 00:01:27.859 every part of life. And what I find interesting 00:01:27.859 --> 00:01:30.299 is that scientists have discovered something 00:01:30.299 --> 00:01:34.299 similar about the universe itself. For centuries, 00:01:34.439 --> 00:01:37.959 many believed that if we knew enough about the 00:01:37.959 --> 00:01:40.840 universe, we could predict everything that would 00:01:40.840 --> 00:01:44.379 happen. But today, modern physicists suggest 00:01:44.379 --> 00:01:47.780 the picture may be more complicated. For example, 00:01:47.780 --> 00:01:51.260 at the smallest scales, physicists often predict 00:01:51.260 --> 00:01:55.480 probabilities rather than certainties. Whether 00:01:55.480 --> 00:01:57.939 uncertainty is fundamental to reality itself 00:01:57.939 --> 00:02:02.099 is still debated, but one thing is not. From 00:02:02.099 --> 00:02:05.219 our human perspective, we all live with uncertainty. 00:02:06.079 --> 00:02:09.020 And as an actuary, I spend much of my career 00:02:09.020 --> 00:02:13.419 studying probability. Probability does not remove 00:02:13.419 --> 00:02:17.639 uncertainty, but it helps us navigate it. It 00:02:17.639 --> 00:02:20.919 teaches us to make wise decisions even when the 00:02:20.919 --> 00:02:25.080 future is not fully known. Now looking back, 00:02:25.259 --> 00:02:29.360 I smile at that young man who desperately wanted 00:02:29.360 --> 00:02:33.280 to become a math teacher. Not getting that job 00:02:33.280 --> 00:02:35.599 felt like one of the biggest disappointments 00:02:35.599 --> 00:02:40.060 of my life. And yet, it led me to become an actuary. 00:02:40.520 --> 00:02:44.860 A career I never planned for, but a career that 00:02:44.860 --> 00:02:47.659 has opened doors I could never have imagined. 00:02:49.520 --> 00:02:51.860 Sometimes the path we never would have chosen 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:57.139 becomes the one we are most grateful for. So 00:02:57.139 --> 00:03:00.379 this week, we will explore how probability helps 00:03:00.379 --> 00:03:04.319 us live in an uncertain world. But this week 00:03:04.319 --> 00:03:07.099 is not just about math and probability, because 00:03:07.099 --> 00:03:11.360 we will ask a deeper question. If certainty is 00:03:11.360 --> 00:03:15.719 often unavailable, what does reasonable hope 00:03:15.719 --> 00:03:16.939 look like?