WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.540 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. If you have been 00:00:02.540 --> 00:00:04.519 riding shotgun with us for the last few months, 00:00:04.940 --> 00:00:08.119 you know, we have been absolutely obsessed with 00:00:08.119 --> 00:00:11.759 a very specific, very massive roadmap of the 00:00:11.759 --> 00:00:14.259 future. We really have. We're talking, of course, 00:00:14.259 --> 00:00:16.739 about the Reed Multiplex series. You have 5 ,000 00:00:16.739 --> 00:00:20.449 days. And today involves a... Pretty significant 00:00:20.449 --> 00:00:22.609 milestone. It's a huge one. It feels like we've 00:00:22.609 --> 00:00:24.809 been on a long journey with this material from 00:00:24.809 --> 00:00:27.149 Brian Rommel. I mean, we've dissected the de 00:00:27.149 --> 00:00:29.050 -skilling of the workforce. We've analyzed the 00:00:29.050 --> 00:00:31.129 rise of the voice -first revolution. And we spent 00:00:31.129 --> 00:00:33.030 a considerable, I mean, a lot of time on that 00:00:33.030 --> 00:00:36.049 incredibly heavy, almost suffocating concept 00:00:36.049 --> 00:00:38.770 he calls the dark night of the soul. Right. That 00:00:38.770 --> 00:00:41.270 moment where AI essentially just strips away 00:00:41.270 --> 00:00:44.490 the job part of your identity. It was pretty 00:00:44.490 --> 00:00:47.170 bleak stuff to get through. It really was. And 00:00:47.170 --> 00:00:49.789 honestly. Looking back at the last few discussions 00:00:49.789 --> 00:00:52.310 we've had on this, it's been a little dark. Enlightening, 00:00:52.390 --> 00:00:55.670 absolutely. Brian Remmel is nothing if not thorough. 00:00:55.829 --> 00:00:58.789 Oh, unbelievably so. But it has felt like watching 00:00:58.789 --> 00:01:01.590 a storm front move in. You know it's coming. 00:01:01.689 --> 00:01:03.570 You know it's going to change the landscape. 00:01:03.890 --> 00:01:06.469 But you don't necessarily want to be standing 00:01:06.469 --> 00:01:09.409 in the rain. That is a very fair assessment. 00:01:09.609 --> 00:01:12.629 I think a lot of the early parts of the 5 ,000 00:01:12.629 --> 00:01:15.310 Days Theory are, by necessity, about disruption. 00:01:15.769 --> 00:01:18.530 They are about the end of the world as we know 00:01:18.530 --> 00:01:22.430 it. Right. But today, today feels different. 00:01:22.510 --> 00:01:26.349 We are looking at part 13 of the series. And 00:01:26.349 --> 00:01:28.849 just the title alone, it gives me a little bit 00:01:28.849 --> 00:01:31.010 of hope. It's called The Gilded Age, Reclaiming 00:01:31.010 --> 00:01:34.280 Human Craft in an Age of Abundance. The Gilded 00:01:34.280 --> 00:01:36.500 Age. I love the play on words there. It's not 00:01:36.500 --> 00:01:38.459 the Gilded Age of the robber barons. It's the 00:01:38.459 --> 00:01:41.659 Gilded Age. With you. So set the scene for us. 00:01:41.700 --> 00:01:46.019 Where are we in this grand narrative that Rimmel's 00:01:46.019 --> 00:01:47.760 been building? This is the pivot point. This 00:01:47.760 --> 00:01:49.739 is absolutely the turn. You have to remember 00:01:49.739 --> 00:01:52.400 that he structures this entire massive analysis 00:01:52.400 --> 00:01:54.939 around Joseph Campbell's hero's journey. We have 00:01:54.939 --> 00:01:57.280 had the call to adventure. We have crossed the 00:01:57.280 --> 00:01:59.780 threshold. And we have been in the belly of the 00:01:59.780 --> 00:02:01.870 whale. That's the Dark Knight. That's a good 00:02:01.870 --> 00:02:03.870 way to put it. The belly of the whale. Today, 00:02:03.950 --> 00:02:07.109 we finally reached the return. The hero has survived 00:02:07.109 --> 00:02:09.810 the crisis, faced the dragon in this case, the 00:02:09.810 --> 00:02:12.430 existential threat of AI and automation, and 00:02:12.430 --> 00:02:15.750 is now coming back home. But he is not coming 00:02:15.750 --> 00:02:18.129 back empty -handed. He's bringing something back. 00:02:18.349 --> 00:02:21.409 He is bringing an elixir. And, spoiler alert 00:02:21.409 --> 00:02:24.330 for everyone listening, the elixir isn't a new 00:02:24.330 --> 00:02:27.479 iPhone. It's not some fancy brain implant. It's 00:02:27.479 --> 00:02:30.099 definitely not a universal basic income check 00:02:30.099 --> 00:02:32.919 from the government. No, not at all. The elixir 00:02:32.919 --> 00:02:35.340 is a blueprint. And what I love about Rommel's 00:02:35.340 --> 00:02:36.879 work here and what makes it so different from 00:02:36.879 --> 00:02:39.620 so much futurism is that this isn't just theory. 00:02:39.719 --> 00:02:43.099 It's a practical architectural plan for society. 00:02:43.719 --> 00:02:46.039 A new economic operating system. That's the perfect 00:02:46.039 --> 00:02:48.360 term for it. He is arguing that the solution 00:02:48.360 --> 00:02:51.219 to a world where robots do all the drudgery isn't 00:02:51.219 --> 00:02:53.539 to just sit around and wait for a handout. It's 00:02:53.539 --> 00:02:55.759 a radical return to a system we abandoned over 00:02:55.759 --> 00:02:59.060 150 years ago. The guild. The guild. Okay, so 00:02:59.060 --> 00:03:02.020 before we get into men in robes and secret handshakes, 00:03:02.099 --> 00:03:04.020 because that is definitely where my mind goes 00:03:04.020 --> 00:03:06.300 when I hear guild. Mine too, or like a video 00:03:06.300 --> 00:03:08.699 game or something. Exactly. World of Warcraft. 00:03:09.150 --> 00:03:11.430 Let's set the stage chronologically. Romul is 00:03:11.430 --> 00:03:13.449 talking about a very specific time window here, 00:03:13.530 --> 00:03:15.669 right? He calls it the abundance interregnum. 00:03:15.750 --> 00:03:18.389 Correct. We are looking at the window roughly 00:03:18.389 --> 00:03:22.490 from late 2025 to 2039. That is the 5 ,000 days. 00:03:22.669 --> 00:03:25.150 Right. The core thesis here, and this is the 00:03:25.150 --> 00:03:27.229 thing that truly bends your mind if you sit with 00:03:27.229 --> 00:03:29.889 it for a minute, is that AI and robotics are 00:03:29.889 --> 00:03:32.050 going to fundamentally break the link between 00:03:32.050 --> 00:03:35.490 human survival and human toil. Say that again. 00:03:35.569 --> 00:03:37.830 That's a big statement. For all of human history, 00:03:38.030 --> 00:03:40.509 you didn't work, you didn't eat, or you didn't 00:03:40.509 --> 00:03:42.349 have shelter. That was the deal. The basic contract 00:03:42.349 --> 00:03:44.650 of what? The basic contract. But in this coming 00:03:44.650 --> 00:03:48.009 decade, he argues, the cost of basic goods, food, 00:03:48.090 --> 00:03:50.949 shelter, generic manufactured items, is going 00:03:50.949 --> 00:03:52.969 to drop to near zero because the labor cost, 00:03:53.229 --> 00:03:56.110 the human component, drops to near zero. Which... 00:03:56.349 --> 00:03:58.469 On the surface, sounds like an absolute utopia. 00:03:58.469 --> 00:04:01.069 It does. Until you ask the obvious question, 00:04:01.229 --> 00:04:03.870 which we have been asking for weeks now. If I 00:04:03.870 --> 00:04:06.389 don't have to work to eat and a robot can do 00:04:06.389 --> 00:04:08.789 my Excel spreadsheets and my legal briefs better 00:04:08.789 --> 00:04:12.830 than I can, what am I for? What is the point 00:04:12.830 --> 00:04:16.170 of me? And that is the existential wall. That's 00:04:16.170 --> 00:04:17.649 the crisis we talked about in The Dark Knight. 00:04:17.730 --> 00:04:20.050 And Romel's answer in this installment of Read 00:04:20.050 --> 00:04:23.160 Multiplex is the guild economy. Okay. But I want 00:04:23.160 --> 00:04:26.040 to be really, really specific here, because Guild 00:04:26.040 --> 00:04:28.879 sounds like a Renaissance fair thing. It sounds 00:04:28.879 --> 00:04:32.750 quaint. He is describing a hard -nosed... practical 00:04:32.750 --> 00:04:36.490 architectural plan to restructure society. Not 00:04:36.490 --> 00:04:39.490 a hobby club. Not a hobby club. It's about shifting 00:04:39.490 --> 00:04:42.930 from an economy of scarcity, where we pay for 00:04:42.930 --> 00:04:45.490 things because they're hard to get to, an economy 00:04:45.490 --> 00:04:47.970 based on what he calls human rarity. I love that 00:04:47.970 --> 00:04:50.329 term, human rarity. It just reframes everything. 00:04:50.529 --> 00:04:52.769 It implies that we become the scarce resource. 00:04:53.050 --> 00:04:55.430 We are the scarce resource. Our creativity, our 00:04:55.430 --> 00:04:58.509 touch, our story, that's what's rare. So to understand 00:04:58.509 --> 00:05:00.430 where we're going with this, Rummel actually 00:05:00.430 --> 00:05:03.209 drags us way Way back into the past, like deep 00:05:03.209 --> 00:05:06.769 past. We're going back to 1724. Yes. And this 00:05:06.769 --> 00:05:08.470 is the part that's just so brilliant. It turns 00:05:08.470 --> 00:05:10.990 out the economic model that might just save us 00:05:10.990 --> 00:05:13.670 in 2035 looks suspiciously like Philadelphia 00:05:13.670 --> 00:05:16.329 before the Civil War. Now, hold on. When I think 00:05:16.329 --> 00:05:19.629 of the 1700s, I think of dysentery, churning 00:05:19.629 --> 00:05:22.370 butter, no air conditioning. Right. Not exactly 00:05:22.370 --> 00:05:24.089 a high tech paradigm. I don't think economic 00:05:24.089 --> 00:05:27.819 superiority. So why? Why is Brian Romell pointing 00:05:27.819 --> 00:05:32.019 to this specific era as the blueprint for our 00:05:32.019 --> 00:05:34.959 hyper -advanced future? He's looking at the structure, 00:05:35.139 --> 00:05:38.300 the decentralized nature of it. Between the early 00:05:38.300 --> 00:05:42.139 American settlements and roughly 1863, the economy 00:05:42.139 --> 00:05:44.420 operated on a completely different logic than 00:05:44.420 --> 00:05:46.339 what we have today. What do you mean by a different 00:05:46.339 --> 00:05:49.100 logic? Well, think about our system. Every transaction, 00:05:49.339 --> 00:05:51.339 more or less, flows through a central point, 00:05:51.459 --> 00:05:54.790 a bank. A credit card company. Middleman. Always 00:05:54.790 --> 00:05:56.610 a middleman. Back then, there was no Federal 00:05:56.610 --> 00:05:58.990 Reserve. There was no massive centralized banking 00:05:58.990 --> 00:06:01.389 system acting as the clearinghouse for every 00:06:01.389 --> 00:06:04.350 single transaction. It was a credit -based, reputation 00:06:04.350 --> 00:06:06.910 -based economy. Okay, so that makes sense for, 00:06:06.970 --> 00:06:09.069 you know, trading chickens for shoes. But how 00:06:09.069 --> 00:06:11.209 did they build anything massive? I mean, we look 00:06:11.209 --> 00:06:13.009 at Independence Hall in Philadelphia. It's still 00:06:13.009 --> 00:06:14.889 standing. It's beautiful. You can't build that 00:06:14.889 --> 00:06:17.430 on IOUs and handshakes, can you? Actually, you 00:06:17.430 --> 00:06:20.269 can. And they did. This is where the concept 00:06:20.269 --> 00:06:22.990 of the master craftsman comes in. Rommel does 00:06:22.990 --> 00:06:25.990 a brilliant job of breaking down what a master 00:06:25.990 --> 00:06:29.009 actually was in 1750. This wasn't just a guy 00:06:29.009 --> 00:06:31.389 with a hammer and a saw. Not even close. A master 00:06:31.389 --> 00:06:33.850 builder was the architect, the engineer, the 00:06:33.850 --> 00:06:36.269 general contractor, and this is the crucial part, 00:06:36.329 --> 00:06:39.610 the financier, all rolled into one person. The 00:06:39.610 --> 00:06:42.750 financier. That seems like a stretch. How does 00:06:42.750 --> 00:06:46.329 a carpenter finance a state house? He carried 00:06:46.329 --> 00:06:49.019 the risk. he would front the costs for materials 00:06:49.019 --> 00:06:51.480 and labor and he'd carry that debt on his books 00:06:51.480 --> 00:06:54.660 and to manage that risk and to ensure absolute 00:06:54.660 --> 00:06:57.519 top -tier quality they organized into guilds 00:06:57.519 --> 00:07:00.920 into guilds Rommel focuses heavily on the Carpenters 00:07:00.920 --> 00:07:02.620 Company of Philadelphia, which was established 00:07:02.620 --> 00:07:05.639 in 1724. Okay. They created something that is 00:07:05.639 --> 00:07:08.480 the technical unlocking mechanism for this whole 00:07:08.480 --> 00:07:10.819 theory. If you can understand this one document, 00:07:10.920 --> 00:07:12.720 you understand the Future Guild. It was called 00:07:12.720 --> 00:07:14.959 the rule book or the book of prices. The book 00:07:14.959 --> 00:07:17.279 of prices. Okay. Let's unpack this because today 00:07:17.279 --> 00:07:20.139 if I hire a contractor to redo my kitchen, I'm 00:07:20.139 --> 00:07:22.899 usually paying for materials plus labor, you 00:07:22.899 --> 00:07:25.519 know, hours worked. Right. X dollars per hour. 00:07:25.620 --> 00:07:29.100 Or maybe a fixed mid. Where I secretly suspect 00:07:29.100 --> 00:07:30.800 they're cutting corners to make their margin. 00:07:30.920 --> 00:07:34.639 Right. Time is money. That is a classic industrial 00:07:34.639 --> 00:07:37.399 age concept. It assumes that the value is in 00:07:37.399 --> 00:07:40.439 the clock. That an hour of your time is worth 00:07:40.439 --> 00:07:43.579 a set amount. Which seems logical. It does now. 00:07:43.860 --> 00:07:46.779 But the guilds rejected that entirely. They used 00:07:46.779 --> 00:07:49.540 something called unit pricing. Explain the difference 00:07:49.540 --> 00:07:51.800 for us. This feels important. It is the absolute 00:07:51.800 --> 00:07:54.980 key. Unit pricing means they charged by the output, 00:07:55.120 --> 00:07:57.889 not the input. So if you were laying flooring, 00:07:57.990 --> 00:08:01.069 the book of prices had a set rate for a square, 00:08:01.329 --> 00:08:04.529 which was a defined unit, 100 square feet, or 00:08:04.529 --> 00:08:07.389 for a linear foot of wainscoting. It didn't matter 00:08:07.389 --> 00:08:09.629 if it took you two days because you were meticulous 00:08:09.629 --> 00:08:12.329 or two weeks because you were slow or two hours 00:08:12.329 --> 00:08:14.069 because you were a genius. The price was the 00:08:14.069 --> 00:08:16.189 price. The price was the price for that unit 00:08:16.189 --> 00:08:19.879 of finished quality work. That actually changes 00:08:19.879 --> 00:08:21.759 the incentive structure completely, doesn't it? 00:08:21.819 --> 00:08:24.300 Completely. In an hourly model, the incentive 00:08:24.300 --> 00:08:26.740 for the worker can be to drag the work out to 00:08:26.740 --> 00:08:29.459 get paid more. Or get it done as fast as possible, 00:08:29.560 --> 00:08:33.500 quality be damned. Exactly. Or, if it's a fixed 00:08:33.500 --> 00:08:37.519 bid, the boss pushes you to rush, use cheap glue, 00:08:37.720 --> 00:08:40.559 and hide the mistakes behind the drywall to widen 00:08:40.559 --> 00:08:42.700 the profit margin. We've all seen that. We have 00:08:42.700 --> 00:08:45.179 all lived that. In the guild model, the incentive 00:08:45.179 --> 00:08:47.960 is mastery. You want to do it efficiently, sure, 00:08:48.100 --> 00:08:50.059 but you have to meet the standard to get paid 00:08:50.059 --> 00:08:52.340 for that unit. There is no benefit to cutting 00:08:52.340 --> 00:08:54.740 corners because you simply won't get paid. But 00:08:54.740 --> 00:08:57.320 who sets the standard? That's the big question. 00:08:57.539 --> 00:09:00.519 If I lay a crappy floor really quickly, do I 00:09:00.519 --> 00:09:02.860 still get the unit price? Who is the referee 00:09:02.860 --> 00:09:05.820 who says this is good enough? That is the genius 00:09:05.820 --> 00:09:08.320 of the system. And this is the part I found most 00:09:08.320 --> 00:09:10.860 fascinating in Rommel's research. They had a 00:09:10.860 --> 00:09:14.220 role. They had measurers. Measurers. Yes. These 00:09:14.220 --> 00:09:16.340 were sworn members of the guild. They had to 00:09:16.340 --> 00:09:18.559 be highly experienced, usually with decades of 00:09:18.559 --> 00:09:20.440 work under their belts. They were the most respected 00:09:20.440 --> 00:09:23.039 masters. What did they do? When a job was done, 00:09:23.340 --> 00:09:26.059 the master builder didn't just send an invoice. 00:09:26.820 --> 00:09:29.100 Two measurers would go to the site. They would 00:09:29.100 --> 00:09:31.259 physically measure the work. They would check 00:09:31.259 --> 00:09:33.179 the joinery. They would check the plumb lines 00:09:33.179 --> 00:09:35.059 against the specifications in the rule book. 00:09:35.340 --> 00:09:38.539 And they would determine the final value. So 00:09:38.539 --> 00:09:41.830 no haveling. I can't argue, hey, I tried really 00:09:41.830 --> 00:09:44.690 hard or my material costs went up unexpectedly. 00:09:45.070 --> 00:09:47.950 No haggling. It was equitable. It was a three 00:09:47.950 --> 00:09:50.049 -way protection system. It protected the client 00:09:50.049 --> 00:09:52.370 from being overcharged. It protected the craftsman 00:09:52.370 --> 00:09:54.990 from being underpaid. And it protected the reputation 00:09:54.990 --> 00:09:57.950 of the entire guild. The price was the price. 00:09:58.129 --> 00:10:00.860 And this rulebook. You said it was the key. Yes. 00:10:00.919 --> 00:10:03.899 And it was semi -secret. Ah, OK. Here comes the 00:10:03.899 --> 00:10:06.159 secret society aspect. I knew it was coming. 00:10:06.240 --> 00:10:08.320 It wasn't secret because they were, you know, 00:10:08.340 --> 00:10:10.519 hiding a conspiracy to take over the world. It 00:10:10.519 --> 00:10:13.419 was intellectual property. It was the collective 00:10:13.419 --> 00:10:16.240 knowledge and standards of the guild built over 00:10:16.240 --> 00:10:18.720 decades. And you had to earn the right to access 00:10:18.720 --> 00:10:22.200 it. You had to. Brian Rommel shares this absolutely 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:25.120 great anecdote in the text about Thomas Jefferson. 00:10:25.419 --> 00:10:27.179 Now, you have to think about Jefferson. This 00:10:27.179 --> 00:10:29.480 wasn't just a politician. He was a brilliant 00:10:29.480 --> 00:10:32.620 architect. He designed Monticello. He designed 00:10:32.620 --> 00:10:34.720 the Virginia State Capitol. He was a serious 00:10:34.720 --> 00:10:37.399 player. Right. If anyone deserves access to the 00:10:37.399 --> 00:10:40.039 architectural secrets of the day, it's Jefferson. 00:10:40.259 --> 00:10:44.419 You'd think so. Well, in 1817, Jefferson basically 00:10:44.419 --> 00:10:46.340 knocks on the door of the Carpenter's Company 00:10:46.340 --> 00:10:49.289 and asks to see a copy of their rulebook. He 00:10:49.289 --> 00:10:51.090 wants to know their pricing standards, their 00:10:51.090 --> 00:10:53.950 methods. And they say. They politely told the 00:10:53.950 --> 00:10:56.230 former president of the United States to get 00:10:56.230 --> 00:10:59.029 lost. Denied. They denied Thomas Jefferson. Flat 00:10:59.029 --> 00:11:01.230 out, because he wasn't a member. That knowledge, 00:11:01.529 --> 00:11:03.789 the standard of value, belonged to the collective. 00:11:04.110 --> 00:11:06.610 It ensured that only people who had put in the 00:11:06.610 --> 00:11:08.889 work, who had gone through the seven -year apprenticeship. 00:11:09.269 --> 00:11:12.210 Seven years. Only they could operate in that 00:11:12.210 --> 00:11:14.950 market. It was a quality control mechanism that 00:11:14.950 --> 00:11:17.149 was incredibly strict. We don't do anything for 00:11:17.149 --> 00:11:19.299 seven years anymore. We barely do anything for 00:11:19.299 --> 00:11:22.519 seven months. A university degree is four. And 00:11:22.519 --> 00:11:25.019 that's the tragedy Rommel is pointing out. That 00:11:25.019 --> 00:11:27.600 apprenticeship wasn't just learning to saw a 00:11:27.600 --> 00:11:29.799 straight line or mix mortar. It was learning 00:11:29.799 --> 00:11:32.940 the ethics of the trade. It was learning to live 00:11:32.940 --> 00:11:35.860 in a web of mutual obligation. What do you mean 00:11:35.860 --> 00:11:38.399 by that? You literally lived with the master. 00:11:38.559 --> 00:11:40.659 You ate at his table. You became part of his 00:11:40.659 --> 00:11:42.879 family. You learned how to be a member of the 00:11:42.879 --> 00:11:45.789 community, not just an employee. Let's talk about 00:11:45.789 --> 00:11:47.830 that obligation, because you mentioned earlier 00:11:47.830 --> 00:11:49.929 that there wasn't a lot of cash floating around 00:11:49.929 --> 00:11:53.070 in 1750. So if I'm a carpenter and I build a 00:11:53.070 --> 00:11:56.029 barn for a farmer, how do I actually get paid 00:11:56.029 --> 00:11:58.190 if there's no national currency in my pocket? 00:11:58.350 --> 00:12:00.129 You get credit, and I don't mean a credit card 00:12:00.129 --> 00:12:02.769 swipe. I mean a literal entry in a ledger book. 00:12:03.149 --> 00:12:06.789 Farmer John owes me for one barn framing, and 00:12:06.789 --> 00:12:09.049 that debt might sit there on the books for five 00:12:09.049 --> 00:12:12.220 years. Five years. That requires a massive amount 00:12:12.220 --> 00:12:14.759 of trust. Our entire economy would collapse if 00:12:14.759 --> 00:12:16.639 payments took five years. It requires reputation. 00:12:16.779 --> 00:12:19.799 That's the currency. Eventually, Farmer John 00:12:19.799 --> 00:12:22.519 pays you back in pork or corn, or maybe he helps 00:12:22.519 --> 00:12:25.279 you clear a field next spring, or maybe he gives 00:12:25.279 --> 00:12:27.480 you lumber from his woodlot for your next project. 00:12:27.950 --> 00:12:30.809 Or you trade the debt itself. Exactly. You could 00:12:30.809 --> 00:12:33.269 take that debt from Farmer John and use it to 00:12:33.269 --> 00:12:36.230 pay the blacksmith for new tools. It was a relational 00:12:36.230 --> 00:12:39.049 economy. If you were a jerk or if you did bad 00:12:39.049 --> 00:12:41.450 work or if you stiff someone, you were exiled 00:12:41.450 --> 00:12:43.169 from the economy because nobody would trade with 00:12:43.169 --> 00:12:45.250 you. Your name was your bond. Your reputation 00:12:45.250 --> 00:12:48.389 was everything. So we have this historical baseline. 00:12:48.750 --> 00:12:52.250 High trust, high skill, unit pricing, decentralized 00:12:52.250 --> 00:12:54.590 credit. It sounds pretty great, actually. But 00:12:54.590 --> 00:12:58.299 then 1863 happens. What went wrong? It's not 00:12:58.299 --> 00:13:01.039 that it went wrong exactly. The Civil War required 00:13:01.039 --> 00:13:04.419 centralization. The North needed to fund a massive 00:13:04.419 --> 00:13:08.179 modern war machine. You can't fund a war on barter 00:13:08.179 --> 00:13:10.279 and local ledgers. You need cash. You need cash. 00:13:10.539 --> 00:13:12.879 So the government passed the National Banking 00:13:12.879 --> 00:13:14.740 Acts. They centralized the currency, created 00:13:14.740 --> 00:13:17.059 the greenback, and established the national banking 00:13:17.059 --> 00:13:19.679 system we more or less have today. And slowly, 00:13:19.820 --> 00:13:22.860 over decades, that industrial model of labor 00:13:22.860 --> 00:13:25.019 took over. We stopped being makers and started 00:13:25.019 --> 00:13:28.519 being employees. We traded mastery for a wage. 00:13:28.740 --> 00:13:31.379 And Rommel isn't saying that was bad per se. 00:13:31.519 --> 00:13:33.879 It built the 20th century. It built the skyscrapers 00:13:33.879 --> 00:13:36.100 and the highways and put a car in every garage. 00:13:36.299 --> 00:13:38.340 It was necessary for that era. Exactly. It was 00:13:38.340 --> 00:13:40.980 necessary for scaling the industrial age. But 00:13:40.980 --> 00:13:43.860 Rommel's core argument in this gilded age deep 00:13:43.860 --> 00:13:46.620 dive is that the industrial model is now obsolete. 00:13:46.940 --> 00:13:49.500 The industrial model is an operating system for 00:13:49.500 --> 00:13:52.740 scarcity. It's for rationing resources. But we 00:13:52.740 --> 00:13:55.679 are entering the abundance interregnum. Let's 00:13:55.679 --> 00:13:58.759 pivot. Let's get into the return. Why do we go 00:13:58.759 --> 00:14:02.679 back to guilds in 2030? If a robot can 3D print 00:14:02.679 --> 00:14:05.919 a house, why do I need a guild master? It seems 00:14:05.919 --> 00:14:08.059 totally counterintuitive to go back to a system 00:14:08.059 --> 00:14:10.299 from 300 years ago when we have super intelligent 00:14:10.299 --> 00:14:14.799 AI. Because of one word. Value. This is the hardest 00:14:14.799 --> 00:14:17.039 concept to really grasp, and Brian Rimmel spends 00:14:17.039 --> 00:14:19.639 a lot of time on it. When AI drives the cost 00:14:19.639 --> 00:14:22.710 of mass production to near zero, when... A robot 00:14:22.710 --> 00:14:24.610 can print a perfect plastic chair for a penny 00:14:24.610 --> 00:14:26.850 or generate a perfect legal contract for free. 00:14:27.129 --> 00:14:30.029 That chair has no economic value. It has utility. 00:14:30.090 --> 00:14:31.970 You can sit in it. It has utility, but it has 00:14:31.970 --> 00:14:33.909 no trade value. If you can get one for free, 00:14:33.990 --> 00:14:35.690 why would you pay for it? Right. If everyone 00:14:35.690 --> 00:14:38.090 have it, nobody pays for it. Basic supply and 00:14:38.090 --> 00:14:41.389 demand. Exactly. So traditional cash, which is 00:14:41.389 --> 00:14:44.470 a tool designed to ration scarce resources, becomes 00:14:44.470 --> 00:14:49.179 kind of... Irrelevant. Marginal is the word Rommel 00:14:49.179 --> 00:14:51.940 uses. Cash becomes a vestige of a bygone era 00:14:51.940 --> 00:14:54.379 of scarcity. So when all the material necessities 00:14:54.379 --> 00:14:56.639 are cheap, what becomes expensive? What becomes 00:14:56.639 --> 00:15:00.000 the new scarcity? Us. Humans. The things the 00:15:00.000 --> 00:15:03.340 robot can't do. The human unique stuff. Precisely. 00:15:03.340 --> 00:15:06.080 Human unique labor. The intuitive touch. The 00:15:06.080 --> 00:15:09.009 relational depth. The connection. The story. 00:15:09.409 --> 00:15:11.629 Romel's insight is that we aren't going back 00:15:11.629 --> 00:15:14.129 to poverty. We are using this old guild structure 00:15:14.129 --> 00:15:16.990 to manage plenty. We're building a new social 00:15:16.990 --> 00:15:19.309 operating system around the things that actually 00:15:19.309 --> 00:15:22.049 matter when survival is guaranteed. OK, so paint 00:15:22.049 --> 00:15:24.190 the picture for me. How does this actually work? 00:15:24.250 --> 00:15:27.730 It's 2032. I'm not joining a union. I'm not punching 00:15:27.730 --> 00:15:30.250 a clock. What am I doing? It's much more grassroots 00:15:30.250 --> 00:15:32.850 than that. Romel describes it as voluntary and 00:15:32.850 --> 00:15:35.980 local. So imagine six or seven friends gathering 00:15:35.980 --> 00:15:38.460 in a living room or a local makerspace. They 00:15:38.460 --> 00:15:40.500 trust each other. They have complementary skills. 00:15:40.740 --> 00:15:43.860 They decide to form a guild. Okay. Step one. 00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:47.399 Get six friends you trust. That might be the 00:15:47.399 --> 00:15:51.019 hardest part. Ah, true. Step two. They draft 00:15:51.019 --> 00:15:53.759 the new rulebook. It's modeled directly on that 00:15:53.759 --> 00:15:57.470 1786 original from Philadelphia. But instead 00:15:57.470 --> 00:15:59.649 of pricing floorboards. They define their own 00:15:59.649 --> 00:16:02.509 unique units of value. And this is where it gets 00:16:02.509 --> 00:16:05.389 incredibly creative. It's not just square feet 00:16:05.389 --> 00:16:07.570 of wood. For a storytelling guild, it could be 00:16:07.570 --> 00:16:10.090 emotional depth hours. For a software guild, 00:16:10.250 --> 00:16:13.029 it might be complexity units. For a piece of 00:16:13.029 --> 00:16:17.049 code. For a chef, sensory innovation units. You 00:16:17.049 --> 00:16:18.809 define what you value as a group. You define 00:16:18.809 --> 00:16:21.350 your own economy. And then you have the ledger. 00:16:21.470 --> 00:16:24.450 Are we talking blockchain? Probably. Seems like 00:16:24.450 --> 00:16:26.879 a natural fit. Roemo suggests blockchain is the 00:16:26.879 --> 00:16:29.039 logical tool for transparency, but he's clear 00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:31.019 that the tech isn't the point. The point is the 00:16:31.019 --> 00:16:33.120 transparency. Everyone in the guild sees the 00:16:33.120 --> 00:16:34.659 ledger. You know exactly who has contributed 00:16:34.659 --> 00:16:37.100 what and who owes what. There are no secrets. 00:16:37.419 --> 00:16:39.279 And there's a ritual to it. I like this part. 00:16:39.460 --> 00:16:42.500 The monthly ritual. The pricing committee meets. 00:16:43.100 --> 00:16:45.639 Just like the measurers of old, they review the 00:16:45.639 --> 00:16:47.899 work done by members that month, they assign 00:16:47.899 --> 00:16:50.179 credits based on the rulebook that they all agreed 00:16:50.179 --> 00:16:53.080 to, and then payment is instant. Credits just 00:16:53.080 --> 00:16:55.500 appear in your personal account on the guild 00:16:55.500 --> 00:16:58.379 ledger. Ronel gives a really specific, concrete 00:16:58.379 --> 00:17:01.360 example in the text. Sarah the Potter in the 00:17:01.360 --> 00:17:03.960 year 2032. I think this really helps ground it. 00:17:04.019 --> 00:17:06.859 Can we walk through her day? Yes. This is the 00:17:06.859 --> 00:17:09.460 day in the life of the future economy, and it's 00:17:09.460 --> 00:17:11.859 a great illustration. So Sarah makes a set of 00:17:11.859 --> 00:17:14.259 12 dinner plates. Now, we have to remember that 00:17:14.259 --> 00:17:17.359 in 2032, a robot and a factory could probably 00:17:17.359 --> 00:17:20.660 3D print. 10 ,000 plates in an hour that look 00:17:20.660 --> 00:17:23.180 mathematically perfect. Absolutely. But Sarah 00:17:23.180 --> 00:17:25.539 doesn't mass produce. She uses a specific glaze 00:17:25.539 --> 00:17:27.599 that was inspired by her grandmother's recipe. 00:17:27.759 --> 00:17:29.779 There's a story. There's soul in the object. 00:17:29.900 --> 00:17:31.740 She hand turns them. So each one is slightly 00:17:31.740 --> 00:17:34.019 unique. This is the human rarity part. This is 00:17:34.019 --> 00:17:37.380 it. So the guild's pricing committee visits her 00:17:37.380 --> 00:17:39.519 studio. They don't just count the plates. They 00:17:39.519 --> 00:17:41.599 measure the surface area. They assess the complexity 00:17:41.599 --> 00:17:44.000 of the glaze. They consider the story. And they 00:17:44.000 --> 00:17:47.680 award her, let's say, 240 guild points. Right. 00:17:48.009 --> 00:17:50.369 And here is the magic of the direct exchange. 00:17:51.849 --> 00:17:54.069 She doesn't take those points to Bank of America 00:17:54.069 --> 00:17:56.529 and cash them out. No need. She turns around 00:17:56.529 --> 00:17:58.950 and instantly spends 80 of those points with 00:17:58.950 --> 00:18:01.569 another guild member, a guy down the street who 00:18:01.569 --> 00:18:04.130 hand forged some beautiful kitchen knives. Okay. 00:18:04.289 --> 00:18:07.130 Then she spends 60 points on a musician in her 00:18:07.130 --> 00:18:09.569 guild to come play live music at her daughter's 00:18:09.569 --> 00:18:11.910 birthday party next month. And the rest. She 00:18:11.910 --> 00:18:14.789 banks the rest. She's saving up for a big project, 00:18:14.869 --> 00:18:17.549 a cabin renovation, that another member of the 00:18:17.549 --> 00:18:19.789 guild, a master carpenter, is going to do for 00:18:19.789 --> 00:18:22.970 her. And the key takeaway here. is no invoices, 00:18:23.049 --> 00:18:25.890 no waiting 30 days for payment, no transaction 00:18:25.890 --> 00:18:28.750 fees, no middleman skimming 3 % off the top. 00:18:28.890 --> 00:18:31.710 Just a direct exchange of value between people 00:18:31.710 --> 00:18:34.349 who know and trust each other. And because it's 00:18:34.349 --> 00:18:37.170 local and reputation -based, the trust is inherent. 00:18:37.569 --> 00:18:40.049 You know Sarah. You know the guy who made the 00:18:40.049 --> 00:18:43.269 knives. You aren't trusting a credit score algorithm 00:18:43.269 --> 00:18:45.369 from a faceless corporation. You're trusting 00:18:45.369 --> 00:18:49.029 the relationship. This sounds idyllic, but Rommel 00:18:49.029 --> 00:18:51.769 gets very specific about how this applies across 00:18:51.769 --> 00:18:55.309 all of society. He lists 10 specific examples 00:18:55.309 --> 00:18:57.690 of future guilds. I think we should walk through 00:18:57.690 --> 00:18:59.490 these because they really show the breadth of 00:18:59.490 --> 00:19:02.710 this vision. It's not just for potters and carpenters. 00:19:02.769 --> 00:19:05.609 Absolutely not. It covers the full spectrum of 00:19:05.609 --> 00:19:08.309 human activity. He breaks them into a few groups. 00:19:08.470 --> 00:19:10.430 Let's look at the physical crafts first. Okay, 00:19:10.470 --> 00:19:12.869 so example number one, custom home construction. 00:19:13.349 --> 00:19:16.630 This is the direct descendant of the 1724 carpenters. 00:19:16.750 --> 00:19:19.410 In the future, as he lays it out, an AI will 00:19:19.410 --> 00:19:21.529 do all the heavy lifting on the structural engineering. 00:19:21.910 --> 00:19:24.170 It will ensure the house doesn't fall down. It 00:19:24.170 --> 00:19:26.470 will optimize the material usage down to the 00:19:26.470 --> 00:19:28.430 last millimeter. The machine handles the how. 00:19:28.690 --> 00:19:31.960 Right. But the guildmaster adds the soul. The 00:19:31.960 --> 00:19:34.940 carved details on the mantelpiece, the ergonomic 00:19:34.940 --> 00:19:37.160 flow of the kitchen that fits a specific family's 00:19:37.160 --> 00:19:39.940 lifestyle, the way the window perfectly frames 00:19:39.940 --> 00:19:42.940 the morning sun. You aren't paying to the drywall 00:19:42.940 --> 00:19:44.960 on the two -by -fours. You're paying for the 00:19:44.960 --> 00:19:47.500 artistry. That's what's valuable. And the payment 00:19:47.500 --> 00:19:50.059 might be in guild credits, or the text mentions 00:19:50.059 --> 00:19:52.839 it might be in heirlooms. Trading an old family 00:19:52.839 --> 00:19:55.279 grand piano for a new handcrafted staircase? 00:19:55.839 --> 00:19:58.779 It's a very intimate economy. It really is. Then 00:19:58.779 --> 00:20:00.960 there's number two, bespoke furniture. Again, 00:20:01.140 --> 00:20:03.279 the focus is on the object becoming an heirloom. 00:20:03.720 --> 00:20:06.359 An oak table isn't priced by how many hours it 00:20:06.359 --> 00:20:08.440 cooked to make. It's priced by complexity units. 00:20:08.880 --> 00:20:11.279 So you look at the joinery. Exactly. What kind 00:20:11.279 --> 00:20:13.500 of joinery is it? Is it a complex dovetail, a 00:20:13.500 --> 00:20:15.920 mortise and tenon? The furniture becomes a store 00:20:15.920 --> 00:20:18.299 of value, not a disposable commodity like we 00:20:18.299 --> 00:20:20.319 have today with fast furniture from a big box 00:20:20.319 --> 00:20:22.420 store. That makes so much sense. I also love 00:20:22.420 --> 00:20:24.460 example number nine in this group, small -scale 00:20:24.460 --> 00:20:27.690 farming. This is so crucial. AI can and will 00:20:27.690 --> 00:20:30.670 optimize crop yields on mega farms. It can give 00:20:30.670 --> 00:20:33.630 you a perfect calorie -dense red round tomato 00:20:33.630 --> 00:20:37.390 that can ship 3 ,000 miles. But it tastes like 00:20:37.390 --> 00:20:39.930 cardboard. It tastes like water. But the farmers 00:20:39.930 --> 00:20:42.170 in these guilds are cultivating unique heirloom 00:20:42.170 --> 00:20:45.470 varietals that an AI can't originate. They trade 00:20:45.470 --> 00:20:48.670 based on what Rommel calls flavor profile units. 00:20:49.029 --> 00:20:51.950 Flavor profile units. That is such a cool concept. 00:20:52.009 --> 00:20:54.190 You're not buying a pound of tomatoes. You're 00:20:54.190 --> 00:20:57.670 buying a specific sensory experience, the taste 00:20:57.670 --> 00:20:59.990 of summer from your childhood. Exactly. You're 00:20:59.990 --> 00:21:02.910 buying a story. Now, look at the second group 00:21:02.910 --> 00:21:06.349 he outlines, the service and social crafts. This 00:21:06.349 --> 00:21:09.009 is where the guild model expands beyond the purely 00:21:09.009 --> 00:21:12.009 physical. Example number four, culinary and fermentation. 00:21:12.529 --> 00:21:15.410 This is the farmer's market on steroids. Here, 00:21:15.509 --> 00:21:18.210 the valuation is on sensory innovation. You go 00:21:18.210 --> 00:21:20.529 to a guild dinner. The ingredients are hyper 00:21:20.529 --> 00:21:23.130 -local, from the farming guild. The recipes are 00:21:23.130 --> 00:21:25.650 generational, passed down through families. You 00:21:25.650 --> 00:21:27.869 aren't just eating, you are participating in 00:21:27.869 --> 00:21:30.670 a story. And how do you pay? You might pay the 00:21:30.670 --> 00:21:33.150 chef with unique spices you grew yourself, or 00:21:33.150 --> 00:21:35.170 with guild credits you earn from your own craft. 00:21:35.490 --> 00:21:38.589 It returns dining to a communal ritual, rather 00:21:38.589 --> 00:21:40.809 than just fueling up your body. And then there's 00:21:40.809 --> 00:21:43.910 example number six. Community dispute resolution. 00:21:45.210 --> 00:21:47.750 This one struck me as really profound, because... 00:21:48.029 --> 00:21:51.769 Our current legal system is, well, it's a nightmare. 00:21:51.970 --> 00:21:54.630 It is. It's adversarial by design. It's incredibly 00:21:54.630 --> 00:21:57.630 expensive. It's designed to produce a winner 00:21:57.630 --> 00:21:59.890 and a loser, which often fractures communities. 00:22:00.009 --> 00:22:03.190 Right. In the guild economy, he envisions a guild 00:22:03.190 --> 00:22:06.730 of elders or trained mediators. Their goal isn't 00:22:06.730 --> 00:22:09.589 winning. It's achieving relational harmony. And 00:22:09.589 --> 00:22:11.470 they are paid in credits for the facilitation 00:22:11.470 --> 00:22:13.569 effort. It's about healing the community rather 00:22:13.569 --> 00:22:16.599 than dividing it. Imagine resolving a fence dispute 00:22:16.599 --> 00:22:18.480 with your neighbor, not by suing them for $50 00:22:18.480 --> 00:22:21.960 ,000, but by having a respected mediator facilitate 00:22:21.960 --> 00:22:24.740 a solution where everyone saves face and you 00:22:24.740 --> 00:22:26.559 can still have a barbecue together next weekend. 00:22:26.720 --> 00:22:28.559 That's a world I'd like to live in. And it's 00:22:28.559 --> 00:22:31.359 similar for example seven, holistic healing and 00:22:31.359 --> 00:22:34.599 elder care. This is a perfect human AI partnership. 00:22:34.980 --> 00:22:37.980 The AI does the diagnostics. A machine can analyze 00:22:37.980 --> 00:22:41.000 your blood work or your MRI scan better than 00:22:41.000 --> 00:22:43.710 any human doctor. It can tell you what is wrong. 00:22:43.910 --> 00:22:46.569 But the human provides the care. The human does 00:22:46.569 --> 00:22:49.509 the empathic listening. They provide the touch. 00:22:49.630 --> 00:22:51.970 They hold the hand. They help you navigate the 00:22:51.970 --> 00:22:54.309 fear and the uncertainty. That's the valuable 00:22:54.309 --> 00:22:57.549 part. And the text specifically mentions that 00:22:57.549 --> 00:23:00.269 widows and orphans are automatically supported 00:23:00.269 --> 00:23:02.410 in this system. It's built into the code of the 00:23:02.410 --> 00:23:05.269 guild just like it was in 1724. It's a fundamental 00:23:05.269 --> 00:23:08.890 part of the charter. Moving to the arts and innovation 00:23:08.890 --> 00:23:12.579 group. Example three is mentorship. Romel talks 00:23:12.579 --> 00:23:14.880 about reviving the seven -year apprenticeship. 00:23:15.220 --> 00:23:18.599 But here, the journeymen, the teachers, are paid 00:23:18.599 --> 00:23:20.799 for teaching intuitive techniques. You give that 00:23:20.799 --> 00:23:23.359 amazing example of... metal tempering by breath. 00:23:23.500 --> 00:23:25.839 Right. And that sounds esoteric, but think about 00:23:25.839 --> 00:23:28.640 it. There are things a master blacksmith knows 00:23:28.640 --> 00:23:31.279 or a glassblower knows about the material that 00:23:31.279 --> 00:23:33.980 cannot be captured in data. It's a feeling. It's 00:23:33.980 --> 00:23:36.539 a rhythm. It's a sense. And AI literally cannot 00:23:36.539 --> 00:23:38.559 replicate that because it doesn't have a body. 00:23:38.599 --> 00:23:40.579 It doesn't have breath. So teaching that human 00:23:40.579 --> 00:23:43.299 nuance becomes high value work. Incredibly high 00:23:43.299 --> 00:23:45.559 value. Then there's example five, live performance. 00:23:45.859 --> 00:23:48.720 This one is about reaction, about being present. 00:23:49.309 --> 00:23:52.089 Exactly. An AI can play a piece of music perfectly. 00:23:52.349 --> 00:23:55.150 It can generate a flawless symphony. But can 00:23:55.150 --> 00:23:57.750 it improvise based on the specific, unique energy 00:23:57.750 --> 00:24:00.390 of the room on a Tuesday night? Can it feel the 00:24:00.390 --> 00:24:02.190 tension in the crowd and break it with a perfectly 00:24:02.190 --> 00:24:04.849 timed joke or a surprising chord change? No. 00:24:05.130 --> 00:24:07.349 That's pure human connection. That's emotional 00:24:07.349 --> 00:24:10.210 depth. And that's what the Guild prices. Then 00:24:10.210 --> 00:24:12.710 you have example eight, symbiotic innovation. 00:24:13.029 --> 00:24:15.690 This is the ultimate partnership. Humans provide 00:24:15.690 --> 00:24:19.230 the why. The purpose, the crazy idea, the spark 00:24:19.230 --> 00:24:22.970 of genius. The AI provides the how. It does the 00:24:22.970 --> 00:24:25.089 complex modeling, the calculations, the brute 00:24:25.089 --> 00:24:27.549 force work. And finally, he wraps it all with 00:24:27.549 --> 00:24:31.150 the safety net. Example 10, crisis mutual aid. 00:24:31.349 --> 00:24:34.250 This brings it full circle back to the 1700s. 00:24:34.250 --> 00:24:36.289 If your house burns down or you get a serious 00:24:36.289 --> 00:24:38.589 illness and can't work, the guild covers you. 00:24:38.829 --> 00:24:40.970 Not a faceless insurance company that makes you 00:24:40.970 --> 00:24:42.750 fill out 100 pages of forms and then tries to 00:24:42.750 --> 00:24:44.630 find a loophole to deny your claim to save money. 00:24:44.890 --> 00:24:46.910 It's immediate. It's drawn from the entrance 00:24:46.910 --> 00:24:48.890 fees and the collective investments of the guild 00:24:48.890 --> 00:24:52.309 itself. There's no bureaucracy. It's just neighbors 00:24:52.309 --> 00:24:54.569 helping neighbors because they have a transparent 00:24:54.569 --> 00:24:57.670 ledger of mutual obligation. It's insurance, 00:24:57.890 --> 00:25:00.329 but it's human insurance. Now, I can hear some 00:25:00.329 --> 00:25:01.990 of our listeners screaming at their speakers 00:25:01.990 --> 00:25:04.710 right now. This sounds like a commune. This sounds 00:25:04.710 --> 00:25:06.730 like socialism. Are we all going to wear gray 00:25:06.730 --> 00:25:09.289 jumpsuits and share everything? Right. It's an 00:25:09.289 --> 00:25:12.029 easy conclusion to jump to. But Brian Rommel 00:25:12.029 --> 00:25:15.950 is very, very... explicit in the text. This is 00:25:15.950 --> 00:25:18.950 not a socialist utopia. He is incredibly firm 00:25:18.950 --> 00:25:20.829 on this point. In fact, to make the point as 00:25:20.829 --> 00:25:23.730 strongly as possible, he explicitly invokes Ayn 00:25:23.730 --> 00:25:26.269 Rand. Which is about as far from socialism as 00:25:26.269 --> 00:25:29.150 you can get. He calls it the purest form of capitalism. 00:25:29.490 --> 00:25:32.289 And the distinction is vital. Socialism or collectivism 00:25:32.289 --> 00:25:35.650 generally involves forced redistribution, a central 00:25:35.650 --> 00:25:38.210 authority, the state taking from one person to 00:25:38.210 --> 00:25:40.069 give to another, whether they want to or not. 00:25:40.170 --> 00:25:42.700 This is different. Romel argues the guild system 00:25:42.700 --> 00:25:46.240 is based entirely on voluntary association. You 00:25:46.240 --> 00:25:48.319 choose to join, you choose to trade, you can 00:25:48.319 --> 00:25:51.019 leave anytime you want. Nobody is forcing you 00:25:51.019 --> 00:25:53.900 to do anything. And it honors rational self -interest. 00:25:54.180 --> 00:25:57.190 That's the objectivist angle. The craftsman offers 00:25:57.190 --> 00:25:59.789 their skill not because they are forced by some 00:25:59.789 --> 00:26:02.430 committee to serve the community, but because 00:26:02.430 --> 00:26:05.009 they enjoy the act of creation and they want 00:26:05.009 --> 00:26:07.630 to trade that creation for other valuable things. 00:26:07.829 --> 00:26:09.730 They want the best knives, so they make the best 00:26:09.730 --> 00:26:12.470 plates to trade for them. Exactly. It's intensely 00:26:12.470 --> 00:26:15.069 meritocratic. If you make bad plates, nobody 00:26:15.069 --> 00:26:17.809 trades with you. You fail. There is no tenure 00:26:17.809 --> 00:26:20.829 in the guild. Your reputation is earned every 00:26:20.829 --> 00:26:24.190 single day. Rommel also contrasts this very sharply 00:26:24.190 --> 00:26:28.630 with UBI universal basic income. A lot of futurists 00:26:28.630 --> 00:26:30.789 say, well, the robots take the jobs, the government 00:26:30.789 --> 00:26:32.549 sends everyone a check, and we all sit around 00:26:32.549 --> 00:26:34.970 playing video games. Rommel hates that idea. 00:26:35.190 --> 00:26:37.289 He argues, and I think this is a really powerful 00:26:37.289 --> 00:26:40.430 psychological insight, that UBI fails because 00:26:40.430 --> 00:26:43.150 it separates reward from effort. And for human 00:26:43.150 --> 00:26:45.950 beings, that is a disaster. It strips away dignity. 00:26:46.230 --> 00:26:49.049 It strips away dignity. We need to feel that 00:26:49.049 --> 00:26:52.609 our effort produces our reward. That our contribution 00:26:52.609 --> 00:26:56.190 matters. That link is essential for mental health, 00:26:56.309 --> 00:26:59.069 for self -worth. And the guilt system keeps that 00:26:59.069 --> 00:27:02.009 link. It preserves that link perfectly. You don't 00:27:02.009 --> 00:27:03.789 get credits for breathing. You get credits for 00:27:03.789 --> 00:27:06.509 mastery. You get credits for contributing something 00:27:06.509 --> 00:27:09.559 unique and valuable that other people want. That 00:27:09.559 --> 00:27:11.759 leads us perfectly into the final section of 00:27:11.759 --> 00:27:14.180 our deep dive today, the psychological return. 00:27:14.579 --> 00:27:17.500 Because this whole series, You Have 5 ,000 Days, 00:27:17.799 --> 00:27:20.160 it hasn't just been about economics or technology. 00:27:20.160 --> 00:27:23.000 It's been about the soul. Deeply. The dark night 00:27:23.000 --> 00:27:24.539 of the soul, which we discussed in our previous 00:27:24.539 --> 00:27:26.819 sessions, was fundamentally a crisis of identity. 00:27:27.079 --> 00:27:30.569 The question was, if I'm not my job. Who am I? 00:27:30.630 --> 00:27:33.029 If a robot can write my reports, do I even matter? 00:27:33.250 --> 00:27:35.069 And the Guild is the answer to that identity 00:27:35.069 --> 00:27:37.809 crisis. It is. The shift is profound. You move 00:27:37.809 --> 00:27:40.569 from an identity based on employment to one based 00:27:40.569 --> 00:27:44.029 on vocation, from jobs to mastery. So my identity 00:27:44.029 --> 00:27:46.950 isn't, I am a mid -level manager at Corbex. No. 00:27:47.390 --> 00:27:49.890 Your identity is, I am the one who makes the 00:27:49.890 --> 00:27:52.849 impossible joints, or I am the storyteller who 00:27:52.849 --> 00:27:55.869 can make a room of adults weep, or I am the one 00:27:55.869 --> 00:27:57.829 who bakes the bread that reminds everyone of 00:27:57.829 --> 00:28:00.410 their grandmother. It's about being known, known 00:28:00.410 --> 00:28:03.450 for something real. Being known and being needed. 00:28:03.730 --> 00:28:06.470 Roemily talks about the joy of direct exchange. 00:28:07.130 --> 00:28:10.750 There is a profound emotional weight, a real 00:28:10.750 --> 00:28:13.970 psychic reward, to handing someone a custom cabinet 00:28:13.970 --> 00:28:16.720 you built and seeing their eyes light up. You 00:28:16.720 --> 00:28:18.740 can't get that from a direct deposit slip. You 00:28:18.740 --> 00:28:21.059 cannot get that from a direct deposit slip. You 00:28:21.059 --> 00:28:22.819 cannot get it from a performance review or a 00:28:22.819 --> 00:28:25.119 bonus check. That is a human -to -human transaction 00:28:25.119 --> 00:28:28.539 of gratitude and value. He uses the word eudaimonia. 00:28:28.660 --> 00:28:30.819 Can you break that down? It's Aristotle's concept. 00:28:31.339 --> 00:28:33.640 It's often translated simply as happiness, but 00:28:33.640 --> 00:28:36.680 that's too weak. It really means human flourishing. 00:28:36.680 --> 00:28:39.119 It means exercising your highest human capacities 00:28:39.119 --> 00:28:42.119 in service to others and to yourself. It's the 00:28:42.119 --> 00:28:45.319 feeling of being fully alive and actualized. 00:28:45.359 --> 00:28:47.279 And this guild economy is designed to maximize 00:28:47.279 --> 00:28:49.960 that. It's designed to maximize eudaimonia, not 00:28:49.960 --> 00:28:53.140 GDP, not quarterly earnings. Human flourishing. 00:28:53.319 --> 00:28:55.480 So we move from what he calls scarcity anxiety. 00:28:56.200 --> 00:28:58.559 where we are always worried about not having 00:28:58.559 --> 00:29:01.240 enough, hoarding our resources, competing with 00:29:01.240 --> 00:29:03.740 our neighbors. So abundance gratitude to realizing 00:29:03.740 --> 00:29:06.519 we have enough of the material things. And now 00:29:06.519 --> 00:29:09.420 we can focus on building lives rich with meaning 00:29:09.420 --> 00:29:12.039 through those micro exchanges. Fixing a chair 00:29:12.039 --> 00:29:14.420 for a loaf of homemade bread. It sounds small. 00:29:15.019 --> 00:29:17.559 It sounds maybe even primitive to our modern 00:29:17.559 --> 00:29:20.579 hyperscale ears. But Rommel's argument is that 00:29:20.579 --> 00:29:23.099 a life is built out of those moments. That is 00:29:23.099 --> 00:29:25.380 where meaning resides. We realized the meaning 00:29:25.380 --> 00:29:27.750 was never in the machine. It was never in the 00:29:27.750 --> 00:29:29.910 efficiency. It was always in the human touch. 00:29:30.029 --> 00:29:32.589 Always. So to recap this whole amazing idea, 00:29:32.789 --> 00:29:35.710 we have the blueprint from 1724. We have the 00:29:35.710 --> 00:29:37.609 new tools, the AI, and the coming abundance. 00:29:37.910 --> 00:29:41.069 And we have the destination, the guild. The guild 00:29:41.069 --> 00:29:43.609 economy is the elixir we bring back from this 00:29:43.609 --> 00:29:46.609 5 ,000 -day journey. It is. And the most exciting 00:29:46.609 --> 00:29:49.589 part for me is the call to action. Rommel doesn't 00:29:49.589 --> 00:29:51.509 say, wait for the government to pass a guild 00:29:51.509 --> 00:29:55.170 act in 2035. No. He says, start now. don't wait 00:29:55.170 --> 00:29:59.230 for 2039 he says gather six friends today draft 00:29:59.230 --> 00:30:01.890 a rule book for yourselves experiment with unit 00:30:01.890 --> 00:30:04.609 pricing start trading your skills and your favors 00:30:04.609 --> 00:30:08.410 using a shared ledger not cash create the lifeboat 00:30:08.410 --> 00:30:11.319 before the ship sinks paint boldly That's the 00:30:11.319 --> 00:30:13.279 phrase he uses. The next 5 ,000 days are the 00:30:13.279 --> 00:30:16.400 canvas. It's a beautiful, empowering sentiment. 00:30:16.880 --> 00:30:19.200 True wealth has always been one another. The 00:30:19.200 --> 00:30:21.359 machines just clear away all the clutter so we 00:30:21.359 --> 00:30:23.779 can finally see that clearly again. I have to 00:30:23.779 --> 00:30:25.759 say, looking back at this entire series from 00:30:25.759 --> 00:30:28.839 Reed Multiplex, Brian Rommels has really mapped 00:30:28.839 --> 00:30:31.259 out something extraordinary here. It's not just 00:30:31.259 --> 00:30:34.039 doom and gloom about robots taking over. It's 00:30:34.039 --> 00:30:37.039 a hopeful, practical, and deeply human vision 00:30:37.039 --> 00:30:39.279 of the future. It absolutely is. It's a roadmap 00:30:39.279 --> 00:30:41.319 that honors the wisdom. of the past to build 00:30:41.319 --> 00:30:43.460 a future that is actually worth living in. It's 00:30:43.460 --> 00:30:45.539 been a privilege to analyze it. And honestly, 00:30:45.680 --> 00:30:47.940 I think this Gilded Age concept is the most important 00:30:47.940 --> 00:30:50.579 part of the entire series. It turns the existential 00:30:50.579 --> 00:30:53.539 threat of AI into an opportunity for a true human 00:30:53.539 --> 00:30:56.559 renaissance. And that is a wrap on our deep dive 00:30:56.559 --> 00:30:58.700 into the Gilded Age. We want to thank you for 00:30:58.700 --> 00:31:00.480 listening. And we want to leave you with one 00:31:00.480 --> 00:31:03.240 final thought to mull over. Go for it. If your 00:31:03.240 --> 00:31:06.099 job disappeared tomorrow, if the corporate title 00:31:06.099 --> 00:31:09.759 vanished, if the paycheck stopped coming. What 00:31:09.759 --> 00:31:12.319 is the one thing you could make or do that is 00:31:12.319 --> 00:31:16.180 so unique, so you, that a neighbor would trade 00:31:16.180 --> 00:31:18.519 their most precious heirloom just to have it? 00:31:18.559 --> 00:31:20.779 That's the question. Finding that is the work 00:31:20.779 --> 00:31:23.180 of the next 5 ,000 days. Thanks for listening. 00:31:23.380 --> 00:31:25.460 We'll see you in the next deep dive. Take care.