WEBVTT - AI Generated 00:00:00.490 --> 00:00:03.310 Something is changing in our country, and most 00:00:03.310 --> 00:00:11.769 people feel it before they can explain it. Today's 00:00:11.769 --> 00:00:14.210 guest is Phillips O 'Brien. He's one of the sharpest 00:00:14.210 --> 00:00:16.809 contemporary writers on war, strategy, and political 00:00:16.809 --> 00:00:19.510 power. He's a professor of strategic studies 00:00:19.510 --> 00:00:22.050 at the University of St. Andrews and the author 00:00:22.050 --> 00:00:24.809 of several major books, including How the War 00:00:24.809 --> 00:00:27.449 Was Won, The Strategists, and The Second Most 00:00:27.449 --> 00:00:30.149 Powerful Man in the World. He also writes regularly 00:00:30.149 --> 00:00:32.350 for The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, and has his 00:00:32.350 --> 00:00:34.909 own excellent sub -stack, Phillips Newsletter. 00:00:35.490 --> 00:00:38.170 His most recent book, War and Power, Who Wins 00:00:38.170 --> 00:00:41.170 Wars and Why, argues that battles rarely determine 00:00:41.170 --> 00:00:44.049 outcomes. Instead, they reveal the underlying 00:00:44.049 --> 00:00:46.229 strengths and weaknesses of the states fighting 00:00:46.229 --> 00:00:49.170 them. That framework should help put in perspective 00:00:49.170 --> 00:00:51.289 our discussion today on the U .S. strikes on 00:00:51.289 --> 00:00:54.509 Iran, Ukraine's deep strikes into Russia, and 00:00:54.509 --> 00:00:56.549 Europe's growing responsibility for Ukraine's 00:00:56.549 --> 00:00:59.119 survival. Weaknesses in American strategy and 00:00:59.119 --> 00:01:01.119 the way authoritarian leaders try to sell battlefield 00:01:01.119 --> 00:01:05.079 failure as political strength. So welcome. Good 00:01:05.079 --> 00:01:07.620 to have you. John, it's delightful to be here. 00:01:08.920 --> 00:01:11.859 Yeah, we're also good friends and have a regular 00:01:11.859 --> 00:01:14.099 signal channel with a number of other people 00:01:14.099 --> 00:01:16.400 where we complain about the day's events. And 00:01:16.400 --> 00:01:18.379 occasionally we have a beer together in Scotland. 00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:21.620 Yeah, it's a little hot here, so I'd like to 00:01:21.620 --> 00:01:24.040 be in Scotland right now. I got my fleece on. 00:01:24.400 --> 00:01:26.579 So, you know, everyone else has a heat wave. 00:01:26.760 --> 00:01:28.939 Scotland is like, oh, it's a little, little bit 00:01:28.939 --> 00:01:33.900 cool today. All right, well, let's go. And since 00:01:33.900 --> 00:01:36.060 you're a historian, some of these things that 00:01:36.060 --> 00:01:38.400 are happening today, we'll try to figure out, 00:01:38.400 --> 00:01:40.760 you know, what might be the bigger impact politically 00:01:40.760 --> 00:01:42.900 and historically on these things. So your most 00:01:42.900 --> 00:01:45.760 recent book argues that battles don't decide 00:01:45.760 --> 00:01:49.019 wars, but they do reveal the character of the 00:01:49.019 --> 00:01:51.640 states fighting them. What did the Iran war reveal 00:01:51.640 --> 00:01:54.200 about the United States? Oh, Jesus, nothing good. 00:01:54.599 --> 00:01:57.019 No, no, really. I mean, it's really, I mean, 00:01:57.040 --> 00:02:00.480 you know, as an American, as you can tell from 00:02:00.480 --> 00:02:02.719 my accent, this is all deeply depressing to me 00:02:02.719 --> 00:02:04.640 to see what's happened. It revealed a number 00:02:04.640 --> 00:02:07.920 of things. One, that the government's strategically 00:02:07.920 --> 00:02:11.360 incoherent. It had no idea why it went to war, 00:02:11.500 --> 00:02:15.189 what it wanted to achieve. and how it expected 00:02:15.189 --> 00:02:19.490 to use military force to achieve national goals. 00:02:19.629 --> 00:02:21.150 None of that was there. It just seemed to be 00:02:21.150 --> 00:02:22.830 they went to war because Trump thought he could 00:02:22.830 --> 00:02:26.849 go to war and have a victory. So it showed a 00:02:26.849 --> 00:02:30.129 profound strategic incoherence on top of the 00:02:30.129 --> 00:02:34.110 US government. But that in some ways, it was 00:02:34.110 --> 00:02:36.129 not a surprise because that's the way Trump is. 00:02:36.250 --> 00:02:38.710 There is a strategic incoherence to him. So it 00:02:38.710 --> 00:02:41.569 simply revealed a very problematic thing about 00:02:41.569 --> 00:02:45.180 him. The more depressing thing to me is how it 00:02:45.180 --> 00:02:47.680 revealed that I would say that the U .S. military 00:02:47.680 --> 00:02:51.580 is showing signs of degradation already. And 00:02:51.580 --> 00:02:54.840 this is something I think we have to face. The 00:02:54.840 --> 00:02:56.860 phrase is the fish rots from the head down. You 00:02:56.860 --> 00:03:00.280 probably heard that phrase, John. Well, the head's 00:03:00.280 --> 00:03:04.240 rotting. And that is, I think, translating down 00:03:04.240 --> 00:03:06.479 to the military. My guess is it's a combination 00:03:06.479 --> 00:03:11.139 of. That weaker officers getting promoted, people 00:03:11.139 --> 00:03:15.340 cutting corners, not receiving direction, that 00:03:15.340 --> 00:03:19.780 people with good ideas and open minds are not 00:03:19.780 --> 00:03:22.340 able to advance in their career. And we saw a 00:03:22.340 --> 00:03:25.479 military that wasn't prepared. It didn't have 00:03:25.479 --> 00:03:29.599 certain technologies available to it, cheap technologies 00:03:29.599 --> 00:03:32.680 to defend itself against drones, which seemed 00:03:32.680 --> 00:03:35.300 to have trouble executing a lot of its missions. 00:03:36.760 --> 00:03:39.919 and didn't perform in the way that we would expect 00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:42.580 the U .S. military to perform. I think that would 00:03:42.580 --> 00:03:45.039 be the way I would describe it. I'm reading the 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:48.539 Haberman and Swan book now, Regime Change. And 00:03:48.539 --> 00:03:50.360 I'm just at the point where they're talking about 00:03:50.360 --> 00:03:52.900 the original strikes on the nuclear program, 00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:55.680 but, you know, before the larger war. Last June. 00:03:55.900 --> 00:04:00.020 Yes. And it's amazing to read, like, essentially. 00:04:00.439 --> 00:04:02.900 Trump thought he was still involved in negotiations, 00:04:03.159 --> 00:04:05.599 claimed he didn't want to be part of the Israeli 00:04:05.599 --> 00:04:08.819 attack. And just continued watching until like 00:04:08.819 --> 00:04:11.680 literally one day he saw that Israel was having 00:04:11.680 --> 00:04:15.000 success and said, oh, we need to be part of it. 00:04:15.039 --> 00:04:18.259 We need to claim that we were behind this. And 00:04:18.259 --> 00:04:19.920 then just essentially went to the Pentagon and 00:04:19.920 --> 00:04:23.740 said, start striking now. And they had to respond. 00:04:23.800 --> 00:04:26.220 And as you know, you know, as a historian of 00:04:26.220 --> 00:04:28.879 the military. The military is all about planning 00:04:28.879 --> 00:04:32.759 and preparing and putting together options. If 00:04:32.759 --> 00:04:35.600 you tell someone to attack a country and expect 00:04:35.600 --> 00:04:38.220 them to do it 15 minutes later, you can't really 00:04:38.220 --> 00:04:41.339 expect great success in the sense that tactically 00:04:41.339 --> 00:04:44.379 it worked out OK is almost a surprise given the 00:04:44.379 --> 00:04:47.160 leadership problems. Yeah, and I agree about 00:04:47.160 --> 00:04:49.839 last June. These strikes, they built up for months. 00:04:50.379 --> 00:04:52.360 That's the thing. The ones in February, they 00:04:52.360 --> 00:04:54.920 didn't happen overnight. They had been building 00:04:54.920 --> 00:04:57.800 up to these for a while. And still, I would argue 00:04:57.800 --> 00:05:00.279 they they suffered from significant logistical 00:05:00.279 --> 00:05:03.639 problems in the way they put it together. And 00:05:03.639 --> 00:05:07.060 they blew through stockpiles. And there are certain 00:05:07.060 --> 00:05:10.139 ways that it just didn't seem to be well planned 00:05:10.139 --> 00:05:14.519 when given time. And my guess is that speaking 00:05:14.519 --> 00:05:16.620 your mind in the Pentagon and being critical 00:05:16.620 --> 00:05:20.540 is now not to be accepted. People can't say we've 00:05:20.540 --> 00:05:23.240 got a problem here or that the head doesn't know 00:05:23.240 --> 00:05:26.040 what it's doing because the head will lash out 00:05:26.040 --> 00:05:30.220 at. out at you if you do that. But I don't see 00:05:30.220 --> 00:05:32.180 how we get out of it for the next few years. 00:05:32.259 --> 00:05:36.259 My worry is it gets worse. Well, politics can 00:05:36.259 --> 00:05:40.720 operate in the unreal, but military and intelligence 00:05:40.720 --> 00:05:43.660 and diplomats have to operate in the real world. 00:05:43.819 --> 00:05:46.500 So I know at one point you wrote some detail 00:05:46.500 --> 00:05:48.800 about the memorandum of understanding between 00:05:48.800 --> 00:05:52.759 Iran and the United States. Walk us through that 00:05:52.759 --> 00:05:55.180 a little bit. What do you think that tells us 00:05:55.180 --> 00:05:58.120 about American power and what in our concessions? 00:05:58.459 --> 00:06:00.579 Well, Trump got nothing. I mean, that's the whole 00:06:00.579 --> 00:06:02.759 thing is you read the memorandum of understanding 00:06:02.759 --> 00:06:07.459 and Iran is in a better shape at the end of that 00:06:07.459 --> 00:06:11.339 than it was on February 27th, 2026, before the 00:06:11.339 --> 00:06:13.980 bombing started, because it's got tacit things 00:06:13.980 --> 00:06:17.220 that were never on the table before. Tacit acceptance 00:06:17.220 --> 00:06:20.600 of Iran's control of the state. You know, the 00:06:20.600 --> 00:06:24.040 agreement does not rule out Iran charging tolls. 00:06:24.509 --> 00:06:27.269 It sort of almost accepts the fact that Iran 00:06:27.269 --> 00:06:30.389 has this ability to charge tools. It does, however, 00:06:30.470 --> 00:06:33.670 say the sanctions on Iran are going to end. It 00:06:33.670 --> 00:06:38.110 does talk about a $300 billion rebuilding fund 00:06:38.110 --> 00:06:42.230 for Iran. It talks about basically protecting 00:06:42.230 --> 00:06:47.160 Hezbollah in Lebanon. is trying to say that there 00:06:47.160 --> 00:06:49.139 are certain things that cannot happen. So Iran 00:06:49.139 --> 00:06:51.339 comes out of this with significant strategic 00:06:51.339 --> 00:06:54.519 goals being met. I do not know what the United 00:06:54.519 --> 00:06:58.259 States gets that it didn't have on February 27th. 00:06:58.300 --> 00:07:00.199 That's what I don't, what did they get out of 00:07:00.199 --> 00:07:02.300 this? And no one's been able to give me an answer. 00:07:02.540 --> 00:07:05.139 Well, and also it surprises me that right away, 00:07:05.220 --> 00:07:07.720 the things that Iran asked for were involved 00:07:07.720 --> 00:07:11.300 Lebanon. It wasn't even part of the war and we 00:07:11.300 --> 00:07:13.560 gave into it. Like, so I don't understand that. 00:07:13.660 --> 00:07:16.980 I mean, Israel has got to be just, crazed over 00:07:16.980 --> 00:07:19.920 what the administration is doing without working 00:07:19.920 --> 00:07:24.100 and consulting with Israel. Well, Netanyahu made 00:07:24.100 --> 00:07:29.100 the deal with the devil and he failed to accept 00:07:29.100 --> 00:07:31.240 the truth that Trump will never be loyal to anyone 00:07:31.240 --> 00:07:34.240 but Vladimir Putin. And I think that's true from 00:07:34.240 --> 00:07:36.339 what we can say, how these things work. The only 00:07:36.339 --> 00:07:39.379 thing Trump is loyal to is Putin. He's not going 00:07:39.379 --> 00:07:41.839 to be loyal to Israel. He's not going to be loyal 00:07:41.839 --> 00:07:46.180 to any state. And he sold the Israelis out when 00:07:46.180 --> 00:07:48.379 he thought it was the best time for him, as he 00:07:48.379 --> 00:07:51.920 was always going to do. I mean, the funny thing 00:07:51.920 --> 00:07:55.060 is that people still trust him. Though I wonder 00:07:55.060 --> 00:07:56.779 now if anyone will trust him. I mean, I think 00:07:56.779 --> 00:07:59.939 at this point, the United States is utterly untrustworthy. 00:08:00.000 --> 00:08:03.740 Europeans now know that. States like Japan, South 00:08:03.740 --> 00:08:07.399 Korea, Taiwan know that. So I think to the point, 00:08:07.420 --> 00:08:10.220 everyone's going to be polite. No one's going 00:08:10.220 --> 00:08:13.240 to trust the U .S. You said everyone sees that 00:08:13.240 --> 00:08:15.240 and everybody knows that. And people are looking 00:08:15.240 --> 00:08:18.740 at what happened with us in this war. And it's 00:08:18.740 --> 00:08:20.920 got to impact places like China. So you wrote 00:08:20.920 --> 00:08:23.040 a great piece in The Atlantic talking about a 00:08:23.040 --> 00:08:26.180 hypothetical U .S.-China war. In fact, it's one 00:08:26.180 --> 00:08:28.639 of the bleakest things you've published, amongst 00:08:28.639 --> 00:08:31.160 other bleak things. But it suggests that the 00:08:31.160 --> 00:08:33.200 U .S. is currently positioned to lose a war with 00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:37.399 China. What is our weakest link? Industrial capacity? 00:08:37.700 --> 00:08:39.559 Is it military planning, alliance structure, 00:08:39.799 --> 00:08:42.179 political will? What's the thing that bugs you 00:08:42.179 --> 00:08:45.240 the most? All those things. But let's start with 00:08:45.240 --> 00:08:47.960 the fun. The basic thing is wars are not won 00:08:47.960 --> 00:08:50.779 by the forces you have when they start. That's 00:08:50.779 --> 00:08:53.679 the great problem with studying wars. Does everyone 00:08:53.679 --> 00:08:55.759 think the wars will be won by the forces you 00:08:55.759 --> 00:08:58.039 have when you start? That's why Russia is going 00:08:58.039 --> 00:09:01.440 to conquer Ukraine in three days. Or the US was 00:09:01.440 --> 00:09:05.360 going to win the war on terror in 2001 too. Wars 00:09:05.360 --> 00:09:08.080 don't work like that. They go on longer than 00:09:08.080 --> 00:09:11.159 you think. They show adaptation. They show evolution. 00:09:12.659 --> 00:09:16.100 The problem the US has is it manufactures 10 00:09:16.100 --> 00:09:18.460 % of what China does. If you're looking at the 00:09:18.460 --> 00:09:21.629 raw manufacturing capacity of the two. the two 00:09:21.629 --> 00:09:24.330 states. They're completely out of whack. US has 00:09:24.330 --> 00:09:26.809 no shipbuilding industry to speak of now. It's 00:09:26.809 --> 00:09:31.029 entirely gone. So even if the US wins the opening 00:09:31.029 --> 00:09:34.470 battles, and I'm not sure now they would, but 00:09:34.470 --> 00:09:37.970 maybe if it wins the opening engagements, it 00:09:37.970 --> 00:09:39.909 doesn't matter because they can't make up anything 00:09:39.909 --> 00:09:42.250 they lose. The United States is running out of 00:09:42.250 --> 00:09:45.909 weapons fighting Iran. They're bleeding the Tomahawk 00:09:45.909 --> 00:09:48.750 stockpiles. They're bleeding Patriot stockpiles. 00:09:49.309 --> 00:09:52.230 fad stockpiles. All these vital armaments are 00:09:52.230 --> 00:09:54.830 just being chewed up through fighting the Iranians 00:09:54.830 --> 00:09:57.690 who cannot shoot back in most cases. You add 00:09:57.690 --> 00:10:00.129 the weapons. How do they expect to fight the 00:10:00.129 --> 00:10:02.129 Chinese? I mean, I think it's got to the point 00:10:02.129 --> 00:10:03.570 actually that the United States wouldn't even 00:10:03.570 --> 00:10:06.889 try to fight for Taiwan now. Then I can't see 00:10:06.889 --> 00:10:08.669 what it would do. I mean, where are they going 00:10:08.669 --> 00:10:11.230 to fight from? How are they going to do logistics 00:10:11.230 --> 00:10:14.139 across the Pacific? It's gotten to the point 00:10:14.139 --> 00:10:17.039 where the U .S. is almost out of the game, which, 00:10:17.080 --> 00:10:19.500 by the way, Trump's probably not unhappy with 00:10:19.500 --> 00:10:21.519 because he likes presidency a lot and he couldn't 00:10:21.519 --> 00:10:24.659 care about that one. But I wouldn't want to see 00:10:24.659 --> 00:10:26.779 that war for the U .S. Reading that book, it's 00:10:26.779 --> 00:10:28.940 clear that he doesn't care about much of anything 00:10:28.940 --> 00:10:31.440 except himself. He doesn't care about Taiwan, 00:10:31.600 --> 00:10:34.779 but he is aware of the chip making capability 00:10:34.779 --> 00:10:37.480 in Taiwan and how it would affect the economy. 00:10:39.399 --> 00:10:43.539 Give me a bit of a... I don't know, a rant on 00:10:43.539 --> 00:10:47.559 Hegseth. In his view, you know, it's about hand 00:10:47.559 --> 00:10:49.879 -to -hand combat and toughness and lethality. 00:10:50.039 --> 00:10:53.379 These are the keys to history and victory. As 00:10:53.379 --> 00:10:57.179 a World War II historian who talks about how 00:10:57.179 --> 00:10:59.360 wars are actually won, what is he getting wrong 00:10:59.360 --> 00:11:01.379 here? Well, our great war leader couldn't even 00:11:01.379 --> 00:11:04.620 stand. you know, let alone do a, do a pushup. 00:11:04.659 --> 00:11:06.399 You know, Franklin Roosevelt couldn't, couldn't 00:11:06.399 --> 00:11:08.340 stand that without. Although it makes me feel 00:11:08.340 --> 00:11:10.059 better because I watch his workout videos and 00:11:10.059 --> 00:11:11.980 I'm a 65 year old man. I'm like, I can lift more 00:11:11.980 --> 00:11:14.139 than that. I can, I wouldn't be that embarrassing 00:11:14.139 --> 00:11:16.299 doing karaoke or whatever, but yeah. The thing 00:11:16.299 --> 00:11:19.360 it's, it's actually Hex has whole military ID 00:11:19.360 --> 00:11:22.799 ideology. I'll call it, if you can call an ideology, 00:11:22.799 --> 00:11:24.960 but his whole military outlook's already been 00:11:24.960 --> 00:11:27.120 shown to be wrong. He's talking about things 00:11:27.120 --> 00:11:31.000 like the Russian. Or the North Korean military, 00:11:31.299 --> 00:11:37.860 hyper macho militaries who do these ultra aggressive 00:11:37.860 --> 00:11:40.460 charging maneuvers. And you know what? Those 00:11:40.460 --> 00:11:43.299 soldiers die. If you're going to fight in the 00:11:43.299 --> 00:11:45.120 present environment like that, you're going to 00:11:45.120 --> 00:11:48.559 die. You're going to be killed by a drone. It's 00:11:48.559 --> 00:11:51.179 not about hand -to -hand combat. The Russians 00:11:51.179 --> 00:11:53.179 and the Ukrainians are not doing hand -to -hand 00:11:53.179 --> 00:11:57.289 combat now. You can't live long enough. in most 00:11:57.289 --> 00:11:59.929 cases, on the battlefield to even see the other 00:11:59.929 --> 00:12:04.549 enemy up close. So he's talking about some sort 00:12:04.549 --> 00:12:09.450 of weird 300 Leonidas and the Spartans view of 00:12:09.450 --> 00:12:13.590 war that just doesn't go on. You need motivated 00:12:13.590 --> 00:12:19.190 technological advanced soldiers who are actually 00:12:19.190 --> 00:12:23.649 smart and willing to adapt to the technologies 00:12:23.649 --> 00:12:27.309 at hand. who are going to win you the war. So 00:12:27.309 --> 00:12:30.769 the Ukrainian soldiers who can fly drones are 00:12:30.769 --> 00:12:34.490 the key ones right now, the drone pilots. When 00:12:34.490 --> 00:12:36.110 I retired, I worked for a while as a consultant 00:12:36.110 --> 00:12:37.909 with General McChrystal, and he would tell stories 00:12:37.909 --> 00:12:41.330 about in Iraq, when they got most successful, 00:12:41.470 --> 00:12:44.350 he obviously led the SEALs and Delta Force and 00:12:44.350 --> 00:12:46.610 Special Forces, and they were going after terrorists. 00:12:46.690 --> 00:12:48.809 And they brought a bunch of intelligence people 00:12:48.809 --> 00:12:51.629 in from NSA and CIA and other places. And the 00:12:51.629 --> 00:12:55.740 fighters that... at first were like, who are 00:12:55.740 --> 00:12:58.019 these guys like fat people with like nose rings 00:12:58.019 --> 00:13:00.980 and stuff? Like they have no place here. But 00:13:00.980 --> 00:13:02.620 he said like within a week, they realized that 00:13:02.620 --> 00:13:04.500 actually these are the people who are helping 00:13:04.500 --> 00:13:07.500 them win. They were able to get in, get things 00:13:07.500 --> 00:13:09.460 that they couldn't get before, turn it around 00:13:09.460 --> 00:13:11.360 quickly, find new people, go after them. And 00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:13.580 he realized that, you know, modern warfare is 00:13:13.580 --> 00:13:15.519 about your brains more than it is about your 00:13:15.519 --> 00:13:18.360 brawn. You need the ability, you need the really 00:13:18.360 --> 00:13:20.960 good, like the Ukrainians are not infantry free 00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:23.940 now. But what they've understood is mass infantry 00:13:23.940 --> 00:13:27.240 is not how they fight. It's small numbers of 00:13:27.240 --> 00:13:31.379 really motivated, trained soldiers who know what 00:13:31.379 --> 00:13:35.000 they're doing. It's not. And by the way, are 00:13:35.000 --> 00:13:37.879 smart more than anything else because they're 00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:40.980 really valuable. You don't want your really good 00:13:40.980 --> 00:13:43.139 infantry that have to fight in this terrible 00:13:43.139 --> 00:13:45.820 battlefield to die because replacing them is 00:13:45.820 --> 00:13:48.899 really hard. Replacing one of these people with 00:13:48.899 --> 00:13:52.159 10. unmotivated conscripts, it's going to be 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:55.080 a disaster, or 10 Russian soldiers who aren't 00:13:55.080 --> 00:13:58.220 trained. So you do need those soldiers, but you 00:13:58.220 --> 00:14:01.299 need small numbers of really well -trained and 00:14:01.299 --> 00:14:03.340 motivated ones, like the guys you were talking 00:14:03.340 --> 00:14:06.480 with, who are backed up with all the right tech 00:14:06.480 --> 00:14:10.600 and the people who understand things. And war's 00:14:10.600 --> 00:14:12.919 going to go, as it has been for a while, wars 00:14:12.919 --> 00:14:15.720 are going to go to the smarter side. That's the 00:14:15.720 --> 00:14:18.679 side that wins wars. Well, you've also written 00:14:18.679 --> 00:14:20.980 that Europe and Ukraine are starting to get their 00:14:20.980 --> 00:14:23.279 act together. What does that mean in practical 00:14:23.279 --> 00:14:25.460 terms? Is Europe finally becoming a strategic 00:14:25.460 --> 00:14:28.419 actor or did they hang on to Trump for too long? 00:14:28.580 --> 00:14:30.620 Well, they had to. Yeah, they definitely hung 00:14:30.620 --> 00:14:34.539 on to Trump for too long. 2025 was a disaster. 00:14:35.440 --> 00:14:41.190 Looking back, 2025, Europeans. really thought 00:14:41.190 --> 00:14:43.090 they could win Trump. I mean, for me, it was 00:14:43.090 --> 00:14:45.309 frustrating as an American living here. It was 00:14:45.309 --> 00:14:47.830 really annoying because you'd see the, oh, you 00:14:47.830 --> 00:14:49.389 know, we'd play golf with him. We'd slap him 00:14:49.389 --> 00:14:51.049 on the back. We'd tell him what a wonderful man. 00:14:51.149 --> 00:14:53.690 We just keep praising Trump. And at some point, 00:14:53.750 --> 00:14:55.830 you know, he'll realize how much we love him 00:14:55.830 --> 00:14:58.529 and how much better we are than Putin. And he'll 00:14:58.529 --> 00:15:00.669 do the right thing. Now, Trump will never do 00:15:00.669 --> 00:15:03.169 the right thing. He never does things to do the 00:15:03.169 --> 00:15:07.409 right thing. But Europeans wasted most of 2025. 00:15:08.299 --> 00:15:11.759 I mean, I really think it was going after this 00:15:11.759 --> 00:15:15.240 false dream of Trump. Finally, however, he did 00:15:15.240 --> 00:15:17.500 push them too far. Greenland was a great moment. 00:15:17.720 --> 00:15:21.419 January 2026, Greenland really mattered because 00:15:21.419 --> 00:15:23.440 the Europeans said, oh, my God, the Americans 00:15:23.440 --> 00:15:26.360 might actually invade. They never thought it 00:15:26.360 --> 00:15:28.980 was possible. But then they thought they might 00:15:28.980 --> 00:15:31.299 invade and they might kill European troops. There's 00:15:31.299 --> 00:15:34.000 Danish troops on Greenland. German, French were 00:15:34.000 --> 00:15:36.460 there. And they said, what happens if that is? 00:15:36.779 --> 00:15:39.200 the case that the United States invades. And 00:15:39.200 --> 00:15:43.000 Trump didn't reassure them at that time. He made 00:15:43.000 --> 00:15:45.220 it look like it was possible. And I think from 00:15:45.220 --> 00:15:49.960 that point on, there's been a real change in 00:15:49.960 --> 00:15:54.080 Europe, which was reinforced by the war against 00:15:54.080 --> 00:15:58.220 Iran, because that war in February affected Europe 00:15:58.220 --> 00:16:00.740 much more than the US economically, and Europeans 00:16:00.740 --> 00:16:03.360 weren't involved. They weren't consulted. They 00:16:03.360 --> 00:16:05.679 weren't they weren't in the room. Their needs 00:16:05.679 --> 00:16:08.500 weren't taken into consideration. They were simply 00:16:08.500 --> 00:16:10.539 told, deal with it. This is a U .S. decision 00:16:10.539 --> 00:16:13.679 and we are the great power. And if that's what 00:16:13.679 --> 00:16:16.019 you see from your quote unquote closest ally, 00:16:16.360 --> 00:16:18.820 you realize it's not your closest ally anymore. 00:16:19.159 --> 00:16:22.500 And what they've done is they have basically 00:16:22.500 --> 00:16:25.860 decided Ukraine's victory or success. There's 00:16:25.860 --> 00:16:28.759 not a consensus in Europe about what Ukraine's 00:16:28.759 --> 00:16:31.779 victory should be like. Some want. A good deal 00:16:31.779 --> 00:16:35.179 for Ukraine, somewhat or less, I would say, satisfactory 00:16:35.179 --> 00:16:38.679 deal to get out of the war. But that actually 00:16:38.679 --> 00:16:42.620 Ukraine's future is very important to them is 00:16:42.620 --> 00:16:45.659 more widely understood. They really started, 00:16:45.919 --> 00:16:48.919 they have replaced the United States as the big 00:16:48.919 --> 00:16:52.360 benefactor of Ukraine. And also the thing we 00:16:52.360 --> 00:16:54.220 have to always remember, the Ukrainians fought 00:16:54.220 --> 00:16:56.580 back so effectively that the Europeans realized 00:16:56.580 --> 00:16:59.759 that they had miscalculated. The Europeans in 00:16:59.759 --> 00:17:02.580 2025, I don't want to say were of Trump's view 00:17:02.580 --> 00:17:05.480 that Ukraine had no cards, but they were not 00:17:05.480 --> 00:17:09.079 optimistic about Ukraine in a lot of European 00:17:09.079 --> 00:17:11.319 capitals. They really thought Ukraine was going 00:17:11.319 --> 00:17:13.880 to have to take a bad deal. But then they turn 00:17:13.880 --> 00:17:16.240 around in 2026 and all of a sudden the Ukrainians 00:17:16.240 --> 00:17:19.529 are doing some pretty impressive stuff. And the 00:17:19.529 --> 00:17:22.029 Europeans realized, you know, this actually matters 00:17:22.029 --> 00:17:24.630 to us. And this is a power that we need in Europe. 00:17:24.710 --> 00:17:30.470 So the Ukrainians saved Europe in a way or certainly 00:17:30.470 --> 00:17:33.650 gave it breathing space to make the mistakes 00:17:33.650 --> 00:17:39.130 of 2025 that hopefully are now over in 2026. 00:17:39.490 --> 00:17:42.549 What are they doing? Are they increasing capability? 00:17:42.690 --> 00:17:45.740 Do they really have the ability to? to fight. 00:17:45.940 --> 00:17:48.359 I mean, obviously part of the problem is a lot 00:17:48.359 --> 00:17:51.299 of these places invested in the U .S. And so 00:17:51.299 --> 00:17:53.539 when it came to building their own forces, they 00:17:53.539 --> 00:17:56.000 were only putting pieces together that supplemented 00:17:56.000 --> 00:17:58.359 what the U .S. was good at. Now they're going 00:17:58.359 --> 00:18:00.240 to have to like build across the board so that 00:18:00.240 --> 00:18:02.839 they have the same thing, you know, strike forces 00:18:02.839 --> 00:18:05.440 and ability to move things. Tell us a little 00:18:05.440 --> 00:18:08.420 bit about... Who gets it and what are they doing 00:18:08.420 --> 00:18:10.740 and what are the capabilities right now or in 00:18:10.740 --> 00:18:13.799 the near term? Such a great question. I mean, 00:18:13.819 --> 00:18:15.619 there's so many issues going on here. In many 00:18:15.619 --> 00:18:19.480 ways, no one fully gets it. But what they've 00:18:19.480 --> 00:18:22.299 been able to do is parts of the different militaries. 00:18:22.890 --> 00:18:26.509 The German, the French, the Scandinavian ones, 00:18:26.710 --> 00:18:29.190 the British are cooperating with the Ukrainians 00:18:29.190 --> 00:18:31.150 on things like drones, often because they don't 00:18:31.150 --> 00:18:32.829 have a drone industry themselves. So they're 00:18:32.829 --> 00:18:35.069 learning from the Ukrainians as well as bankrolling. 00:18:35.809 --> 00:18:38.670 It's almost a symbiotic relationship now between 00:18:38.670 --> 00:18:41.829 Europe and Ukraine when it comes to militarization. 00:18:41.970 --> 00:18:44.869 But they did waste time. One thing they did throughout 00:18:44.869 --> 00:18:47.390 2025, they didn't push ahead with their own anti 00:18:47.390 --> 00:18:50.109 -air systems, but sort of were just trying to 00:18:50.109 --> 00:18:53.029 scavenge patriots from around the world. And 00:18:53.029 --> 00:18:55.450 this is the typical thing they did. Europe can 00:18:55.450 --> 00:18:57.869 make its own anti -air systems. It needs to invest. 00:18:58.990 --> 00:19:01.869 I mean, it has the technologies to build something 00:19:01.869 --> 00:19:04.569 like a Patriot. They just sat on their ass and 00:19:04.569 --> 00:19:06.950 didn't do it because they had access to the Patriots. 00:19:07.150 --> 00:19:09.289 And they thought that would be the way forward 00:19:09.289 --> 00:19:11.789 to get more of them. Now they're doing things 00:19:11.789 --> 00:19:15.829 like thinking about European versions of anti 00:19:15.829 --> 00:19:18.250 -air systems, more advanced ones. And that's 00:19:18.250 --> 00:19:19.650 what they're going to do. But they've wasted 00:19:19.650 --> 00:19:23.609 time on that. So, what they've also done, by 00:19:23.609 --> 00:19:26.470 the way, is also provided cash to Ukraine, which 00:19:26.470 --> 00:19:28.349 is really important because the Ukrainian war 00:19:28.349 --> 00:19:30.849 industry in and of itself is now a vital asset. 00:19:31.569 --> 00:19:35.170 Ukraine can make up to 7 million drones this 00:19:35.170 --> 00:19:38.289 year. That's an amazing figure for a country 00:19:38.289 --> 00:19:41.089 that didn't make a drone in 2021, from what we 00:19:41.089 --> 00:19:43.589 can tell. They now have this capacity to manufacture 00:19:43.589 --> 00:19:47.009 7 million. So, providing money to that is in 00:19:47.009 --> 00:19:49.289 and of itself a huge part of European defense. 00:19:50.190 --> 00:19:52.250 This is a quick aside. What's happened recently, 00:19:52.430 --> 00:19:55.509 this sort of friction between Ukraine and Poland. 00:19:55.630 --> 00:19:57.529 Tell us a little bit about what that's about. 00:19:58.410 --> 00:20:00.970 Oh, crap. This is just one of the most horrible 00:20:00.970 --> 00:20:04.430 stories. I mean, in some ways, yes, the Ukrainians 00:20:04.430 --> 00:20:07.250 might have been politically more sensitive. The 00:20:07.250 --> 00:20:11.230 Ukrainians have named a new military unit after 00:20:11.230 --> 00:20:15.789 basically a Ukrainian nationalist military force 00:20:15.789 --> 00:20:18.640 that appeared in the Second World War. And the 00:20:18.640 --> 00:20:22.900 Poles believe committed atrocities against Polish 00:20:22.900 --> 00:20:26.779 forces. And basically, the Russians will say 00:20:26.779 --> 00:20:29.119 it was pro -Nazi and the Poles will say it was 00:20:29.119 --> 00:20:31.519 anti -Pol. And the Ukrainians mind it was the 00:20:31.519 --> 00:20:34.200 Ukrainian nationalist movement who had, by the 00:20:34.200 --> 00:20:37.519 way, or history had been, you know, oppressed 00:20:37.519 --> 00:20:39.640 from both sides by the Russians and the Poles. 00:20:39.660 --> 00:20:42.319 So there's a lot of history here. And maybe the 00:20:42.319 --> 00:20:45.099 Ukrainians should not have named the unit after 00:20:45.099 --> 00:20:47.339 that. Right. That's that's a debatable thing. 00:20:48.359 --> 00:20:52.299 But what I think the Polish president, and this 00:20:52.299 --> 00:20:54.599 is also caught up within domestic Polish politics, 00:20:54.839 --> 00:20:57.960 the Polish president is sort of a MAGA guy, a 00:20:57.960 --> 00:21:01.700 MAGA Pole. And what he did is he turned around 00:21:01.700 --> 00:21:04.740 and said, you can't name this unit. That's an 00:21:04.740 --> 00:21:07.359 insult to Poland. So we're stripping Zelensky 00:21:07.359 --> 00:21:11.460 of an award. So it's the Polish president actually 00:21:11.460 --> 00:21:15.960 striking out at Ukraine. in a, in a, in a way, 00:21:16.079 --> 00:21:18.220 in a dip, you know, in a real way, he's striking 00:21:18.220 --> 00:21:21.359 out at Ukraine. And you got to think that is 00:21:21.359 --> 00:21:25.220 stupid in my mind, whatever you think of the 00:21:25.220 --> 00:21:27.539 Polish Ukrainian historical argument, and this 00:21:27.539 --> 00:21:30.319 is not going to be settled here. Ukraine is fighting 00:21:30.319 --> 00:21:33.200 for its life and it's defending Poland right 00:21:33.200 --> 00:21:36.380 now. This is a good point. Yeah. Ukraine is defending 00:21:36.380 --> 00:21:41.000 Poland that it stands between Russia and Poland. 00:21:41.279 --> 00:21:44.559 That's it. All right. Is this mostly the president 00:21:44.559 --> 00:21:47.859 in his party or is this a wider Polish anger 00:21:47.859 --> 00:21:50.940 at Ukraine? Well, I think that there was some 00:21:50.940 --> 00:21:53.720 Polish disquiet on all parties, but I can't believe 00:21:53.720 --> 00:21:56.319 the Polish president's different than the government. 00:21:56.839 --> 00:21:59.519 So Donald Tusk, the prime minister, is a different 00:21:59.519 --> 00:22:01.779 party than the president. So the president is 00:22:01.779 --> 00:22:04.480 more of a MAGA guy, the MAGA version of Poland. 00:22:04.940 --> 00:22:08.000 And it does seem to be he's the one who's driving 00:22:08.000 --> 00:22:11.779 this. That other other like the Radek Stokorski 00:22:11.779 --> 00:22:14.359 is the foreign secretary of Poland said, you 00:22:14.359 --> 00:22:17.859 know, let's calm down. He tried to calm the dispute 00:22:17.859 --> 00:22:20.420 between the two countries. But it's gotten to 00:22:20.420 --> 00:22:23.220 the point the Ukrainians are now they don't they're 00:22:23.220 --> 00:22:24.880 saying to the polls, OK, fine, we're going to 00:22:24.880 --> 00:22:27.660 name our units after who we want. We are a people. 00:22:28.509 --> 00:22:30.869 So it's the Ukrainians. I don't know if you saw 00:22:30.869 --> 00:22:33.509 what Putin said yesterday, but it was no holds 00:22:33.509 --> 00:22:37.190 barred. And Zelensky is also saying, you know, 00:22:37.230 --> 00:22:39.349 we are going to name our units after each other. 00:22:39.390 --> 00:22:42.750 I don't see how this helps anyone but Putin, 00:22:43.150 --> 00:22:47.170 which it does. And I just don't see the argument 00:22:47.170 --> 00:22:51.730 that Poland had to do it now with Ukraine fighting 00:22:51.730 --> 00:22:54.109 for its life. And it gives the Russians something 00:22:54.109 --> 00:22:57.839 to amplify. Yeah. I mean, I know I'm going to 00:22:57.839 --> 00:23:01.059 get a lot of angry letters from polls for saying 00:23:01.059 --> 00:23:03.660 that, but I just I can't see how this helps anyone 00:23:03.660 --> 00:23:06.079 from Putin now. And I don't see how helping Putin 00:23:06.079 --> 00:23:09.200 helps Poland. No, it makes sense. Well, let me 00:23:09.200 --> 00:23:11.839 just quick go back. And you called Biden and 00:23:11.839 --> 00:23:14.200 the Biden administration's Ukraine policy a catastrophic 00:23:14.200 --> 00:23:17.660 failure. Yeah. What was the biggest mistake, 00:23:17.779 --> 00:23:19.680 the biggest decision you think that caused the 00:23:19.680 --> 00:23:24.690 most damage there? Well, I think the Biden administration's 00:23:24.690 --> 00:23:27.309 view was that they thought they could manage 00:23:27.309 --> 00:23:29.890 this, what I call a Goldilocks strategy. Not 00:23:29.890 --> 00:23:32.250 too hot, not too cold. That they could somehow 00:23:32.250 --> 00:23:35.609 manage the war. And that what they wanted were, 00:23:35.750 --> 00:23:39.569 in some ways, impossible victory conditions. 00:23:39.890 --> 00:23:42.009 They wanted Ukraine to survive. And that's in 00:23:42.009 --> 00:23:43.950 their credit. Trump couldn't care less about 00:23:43.950 --> 00:23:46.730 Ukraine. The Biden administration wanted Ukraine 00:23:46.730 --> 00:23:50.880 to survive and to be an independent state. On 00:23:50.880 --> 00:23:52.900 the other hand, they didn't want Russia to lose. 00:23:53.559 --> 00:23:56.759 So they really didn't. They didn't want a catastrophic 00:23:56.759 --> 00:23:59.099 Russian defeat. They didn't want Russian instability. 00:23:59.660 --> 00:24:02.980 So they sort of tried to control the war so that 00:24:02.980 --> 00:24:06.039 Ukraine wouldn't fail, but Russia wouldn't lose. 00:24:06.380 --> 00:24:08.299 And therefore, they thought they could control 00:24:08.299 --> 00:24:10.960 the war. Oh, we'll fight on the front lines. 00:24:11.059 --> 00:24:14.700 We won't let Ukraine strike into Russia and that 00:24:14.700 --> 00:24:17.599 we'll micromanage the war. And it ended up being 00:24:17.599 --> 00:24:20.450 just. catastrophic failure because Ukraine, I 00:24:20.450 --> 00:24:23.509 think, could have won the war in 2022 had it 00:24:23.509 --> 00:24:26.069 been properly armed, but it wasn't. And what 00:24:26.069 --> 00:24:28.950 happened is every weapon the Biden administration 00:24:28.950 --> 00:24:31.990 first said Ukraine didn't need, boy, they needed. 00:24:32.190 --> 00:24:35.509 They just got it later. Everything from Patriots 00:24:35.509 --> 00:24:40.930 to F -16s to HIMARS, all these things that the 00:24:40.930 --> 00:24:42.910 Biden administration first said, no, no, no, 00:24:42.930 --> 00:24:45.150 Ukraine can't have, they don't really need. Yeah, 00:24:45.230 --> 00:24:47.890 they needed them, but they got them too late. 00:24:48.349 --> 00:24:51.230 And then Trump comes to office and just ends 00:24:51.230 --> 00:24:54.750 all aid. So, I mean, that's the other tragedy. 00:24:55.069 --> 00:24:57.170 The Biden administration is sort of getting it 00:24:57.170 --> 00:25:01.230 by the end of 2024. I do think there is an evolution 00:25:01.230 --> 00:25:03.890 in the Biden administration. But by the time 00:25:03.890 --> 00:25:05.750 they get it, they leave office and then we go 00:25:05.750 --> 00:25:08.730 to the pro -Putin administration. Yeah. I mean, 00:25:08.730 --> 00:25:10.529 from my time in the government, too, I think 00:25:10.529 --> 00:25:14.359 this is an American. problem is we're so large 00:25:14.359 --> 00:25:16.740 and so powerful that we think we can choreograph 00:25:16.740 --> 00:25:19.099 like the perfect outcome. It's like we don't 00:25:19.099 --> 00:25:21.839 you know, if if if Putin falls, it could be a 00:25:21.839 --> 00:25:24.299 strategic mess and terrible. So let's try to 00:25:24.299 --> 00:25:26.619 like beat him, but make sure that he does like 00:25:26.619 --> 00:25:29.039 and we did. We've done this with all kinds of 00:25:29.039 --> 00:25:32.220 wars in Afghanistan. It's like, well, the Taliban, 00:25:32.299 --> 00:25:33.519 they're in Pakistan. We don't want to mess with 00:25:33.519 --> 00:25:35.660 Pakistan, but we do want to go to the top. Like 00:25:35.660 --> 00:25:37.859 we play this game like it's like you're not just 00:25:37.859 --> 00:25:40.269 trying to. do the main thing in front of your 00:25:40.269 --> 00:25:42.589 face you're trying to to choreograph this large 00:25:42.589 --> 00:25:45.069 you know thing that you actually can't control 00:25:45.069 --> 00:25:46.730 like it's out of your control but you believe 00:25:46.730 --> 00:25:48.910 it is in your control well let me and i hope 00:25:48.910 --> 00:25:51.309 you could ask this i don't know if it's it's 00:25:51.309 --> 00:25:53.269 asking you to ask some things you can't but you 00:25:53.269 --> 00:25:55.589 know the russian analysis coming out of the ic 00:25:55.589 --> 00:26:00.690 and from my real outsider perspective it seemed 00:26:00.690 --> 00:26:03.529 it was very moscow -centric it was exactly based 00:26:03.529 --> 00:26:05.920 on what you say you know, this idea that somehow 00:26:05.920 --> 00:26:08.180 we need to work with Moscow, that Moscow, that 00:26:08.180 --> 00:26:12.619 we really don't want Russian failure. And it's 00:26:12.619 --> 00:26:15.279 almost in some ways sympathetic to the subject 00:26:15.279 --> 00:26:19.599 it studies. Now, when you look back on the, you 00:26:19.599 --> 00:26:22.539 know, the Russia analysis, is that unfair? Is 00:26:22.539 --> 00:26:25.059 that? No, it's the old, you become what you study, 00:26:25.180 --> 00:26:27.759 right? And I think it's a bigger problem on Russia 00:26:27.759 --> 00:26:31.779 analysis, academic wise and intelligence analyst 00:26:31.779 --> 00:26:34.680 wise, is a lot of the people who are sort of, 00:26:34.940 --> 00:26:38.180 experts in this area came up through these university 00:26:38.180 --> 00:26:41.319 courses that were taught by, you know, from the 00:26:41.319 --> 00:26:43.119 white Russians came out and then the next people 00:26:43.119 --> 00:26:46.119 came out. It was part of the larger Cold War 00:26:46.119 --> 00:26:51.200 superpower study, Russia -centric. I think it's 00:26:51.200 --> 00:26:53.299 going to be not until the next sort of generation 00:26:53.299 --> 00:26:58.630 of academics and analysts who... also give these 00:26:58.630 --> 00:27:02.109 other countries their due. And so I do think 00:27:02.109 --> 00:27:06.450 that the analytic community was way too, you 00:27:06.450 --> 00:27:08.990 know, I don't want to say pro -Russia, but Russia 00:27:08.990 --> 00:27:11.549 -centric in the way it sees things. It's much 00:27:11.549 --> 00:27:13.430 easier to deal with Russia and solve all your 00:27:13.430 --> 00:27:15.730 problems. And it's interesting because I worked, 00:27:15.730 --> 00:27:18.470 obviously, on the collector side, right, the 00:27:18.470 --> 00:27:21.329 operator in the field side of things. And in 00:27:21.329 --> 00:27:25.190 that case, we're much more sort of... Anti -Russia 00:27:25.190 --> 00:27:26.750 or whatever the right term you want to do is. 00:27:26.789 --> 00:27:29.269 Russia is skeptical. Russia is skeptical. Right. 00:27:29.289 --> 00:27:33.329 Exactly. You know, you need Russia pushes forward 00:27:33.329 --> 00:27:34.910 until you punch him in the nose. And we're of 00:27:34.910 --> 00:27:37.589 the punch him in the nose theory. And we're in 00:27:37.589 --> 00:27:39.250 the don't trust them because everything is part 00:27:39.250 --> 00:27:41.309 of their warfare. Everything. Negotiation is 00:27:41.309 --> 00:27:44.250 part of warfare. But our analytic community seems 00:27:44.250 --> 00:27:47.349 to be, you know, that way. And I think hopefully 00:27:47.349 --> 00:27:49.990 it'll change over time. Hopefully this war has 00:27:49.990 --> 00:27:52.289 sort of taken the blinders off of a lot of these 00:27:52.289 --> 00:27:55.049 people who. think that way, but we shall see. 00:27:55.650 --> 00:27:57.990 It's all whether we can rebuild after this administration, 00:27:58.250 --> 00:28:01.210 too. In some ways, do you have to clean house 00:28:01.210 --> 00:28:04.309 completely now when this is over in three years' 00:28:04.410 --> 00:28:07.730 time? It depends. Certainly in some places you 00:28:07.730 --> 00:28:09.349 do. In the Justice Department you do. Maybe in 00:28:09.349 --> 00:28:12.049 the FBI you do. I tend to think that intelligence 00:28:12.049 --> 00:28:15.309 agencies are a little harder for outsiders to 00:28:15.309 --> 00:28:17.710 figure out and deal with, but you've got two 00:28:17.710 --> 00:28:19.190 and a half more years and you've got some crazy 00:28:19.190 --> 00:28:23.759 people in there. So we'll see about that. So 00:28:23.759 --> 00:28:26.099 let's move into politics a little bit here. I 00:28:26.099 --> 00:28:29.500 don't want to keep you too long. But you said 00:28:29.500 --> 00:28:31.779 you struggle to think of a midterm election as 00:28:31.779 --> 00:28:35.039 consequential as this one in 2026, except maybe 00:28:35.039 --> 00:28:38.880 1862. So why that comparison of all the ones 00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:40.440 available? And tell us a little bit more about 00:28:40.440 --> 00:28:42.460 why you think this is so important. Well, why 00:28:42.460 --> 00:28:45.980 1862? For those who don't go into a lot of American 00:28:45.980 --> 00:28:48.200 history, 1862 is the midterm in the Civil War. 00:28:50.059 --> 00:28:52.319 That is a vital midterm election, because had 00:28:52.319 --> 00:28:55.160 the Democrats won the 1862 midterm election, 00:28:55.339 --> 00:28:57.980 you might have had a, quote unquote, treaty between 00:28:57.980 --> 00:28:59.599 the North and the South that would have given 00:28:59.599 --> 00:29:02.180 the South independence of some kind. That really, 00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:04.619 it was vitally important that the Republicans 00:29:04.619 --> 00:29:08.539 win the midterms of 1862 to support the policies 00:29:08.539 --> 00:29:11.619 of Abraham Lincoln. So the country's future would 00:29:11.619 --> 00:29:13.460 have been, I think, materially different had 00:29:13.460 --> 00:29:16.440 the Democrats won the 1862 midterm elections, 00:29:16.559 --> 00:29:19.109 and they didn't. So that's the only one I can 00:29:19.109 --> 00:29:23.190 think of that compares to these kinds of this, 00:29:23.230 --> 00:29:27.549 the midterm election we have now that my the 00:29:27.549 --> 00:29:30.190 fundamental problem there's I mean, yes, Trump 00:29:30.190 --> 00:29:34.130 is incoherent. Yes, Trump is a strategic moron. 00:29:34.150 --> 00:29:36.329 He's a political genius, by the way. And I hate 00:29:36.329 --> 00:29:38.869 to say that he is an absolute political savant, 00:29:38.910 --> 00:29:43.150 but a strategic moron. The big problem is he's 00:29:43.150 --> 00:29:46.930 corrupt as hell. This is the underlying. The 00:29:46.930 --> 00:29:50.289 United States is now a corrupt government. And 00:29:50.289 --> 00:29:53.230 I know people don't like to hear that. I hope 00:29:53.230 --> 00:29:55.750 people run on corruption and incompetence because 00:29:55.750 --> 00:29:58.769 those two things are the fundamental thing behind 00:29:58.769 --> 00:30:01.589 all of the issues that we see or most of the 00:30:01.589 --> 00:30:04.049 issues. But if you can't root that corruption 00:30:04.049 --> 00:30:08.109 out soon, it's going to embed itself. And it's 00:30:08.109 --> 00:30:11.549 already embedding itself now. It is my worry. 00:30:11.650 --> 00:30:15.710 And if the Republicans win the 1860, sorry, 1862 00:30:15.710 --> 00:30:19.309 election, if the Republicans win the 2026 midterms, 00:30:19.309 --> 00:30:22.170 who knows what they'll do legally to keep power, 00:30:22.250 --> 00:30:26.829 to basically protect corruption. I mean, that's 00:30:26.829 --> 00:30:28.670 what Speaker Johnson said the other day. You 00:30:28.670 --> 00:30:30.289 don't want to vote Democrat. They'll investigate 00:30:30.289 --> 00:30:34.049 the Trumps. So they're actually protecting this. 00:30:34.210 --> 00:30:36.690 As a clandestine collector overseas, the one 00:30:36.690 --> 00:30:39.279 thing that... that allowed us to be as successful 00:30:39.279 --> 00:30:42.519 as we were, to collect the secrets that we needed 00:30:42.519 --> 00:30:45.559 to give our policymakers, you know, the ability 00:30:45.559 --> 00:30:47.940 to make decent policy. They don't always do that, 00:30:48.000 --> 00:30:50.500 but you want to give them the information, is 00:30:50.500 --> 00:30:53.480 that the countries we often worked in were corrupt 00:30:53.480 --> 00:30:55.839 and incompetent. And the people who worked there 00:30:55.839 --> 00:30:58.619 realized that at some point they couldn't change 00:30:58.619 --> 00:31:00.420 the system and they wanted to work with the United 00:31:00.420 --> 00:31:03.460 States, who they saw as something. different, 00:31:03.539 --> 00:31:05.660 trying to actually play a role in the world that 00:31:05.660 --> 00:31:07.779 was generally positive, despite the mistakes 00:31:07.779 --> 00:31:10.980 we make. If we are a country that is just another 00:31:10.980 --> 00:31:13.880 corrupt, you know, grab as much as you can kind 00:31:13.880 --> 00:31:15.960 of place, we're going to lose something that's 00:31:15.960 --> 00:31:18.920 really special that allowed us to be as powerful 00:31:18.920 --> 00:31:22.079 and rich as we are. We are that now. I mean, 00:31:22.079 --> 00:31:25.319 right now we are a grab as much as you can government. 00:31:25.740 --> 00:31:29.059 I can't see anyone who's not out there to grab 00:31:29.059 --> 00:31:32.970 as much as they can. And Kristi Noem with that 00:31:32.970 --> 00:31:36.589 plane. It's just grotesque what's going on. And 00:31:36.589 --> 00:31:38.650 this is my worry. How do you get back from it? 00:31:38.730 --> 00:31:41.109 And the only way you get back is end it as soon 00:31:41.109 --> 00:31:44.190 as possible. Because once these systems go corrupt, 00:31:44.450 --> 00:31:50.130 it becomes entrenched. And that's why soon. So 00:31:50.130 --> 00:31:53.589 to put this in a bigger sort of pullback historical 00:31:53.589 --> 00:31:56.170 thing, to put it in perspective, can you articulate 00:31:56.170 --> 00:31:59.220 what... MAGA means to the U .S. place in the 00:31:59.220 --> 00:32:02.420 world in the sense that what was the world order 00:32:02.420 --> 00:32:06.019 that we had? How was it changing? What does it 00:32:06.019 --> 00:32:07.799 matter? What are we losing? Because a lot of 00:32:07.799 --> 00:32:10.700 Americans, they focus on the day -to -day and, 00:32:10.720 --> 00:32:12.799 oh, I want my gas to be cheaper, whatever it 00:32:12.799 --> 00:32:16.180 is. Those of us who worked for the government 00:32:16.180 --> 00:32:19.700 saw this world order. We were sort of leaders 00:32:19.700 --> 00:32:22.240 in the world order. as beneficial to us. Can 00:32:22.240 --> 00:32:24.559 you explain what that was, why it was important, 00:32:24.660 --> 00:32:26.680 and why people who might be listening should 00:32:26.680 --> 00:32:28.920 realize that that's a terrible thing that we're 00:32:28.920 --> 00:32:32.579 losing? Well, the one element of American power 00:32:32.579 --> 00:32:35.480 that people underrated in the United States, 00:32:35.539 --> 00:32:37.880 and I say this is real, they underrated the value 00:32:37.880 --> 00:32:40.880 of allies. It was, we are the United States. 00:32:40.920 --> 00:32:42.920 We are the great power, and our weak European 00:32:42.920 --> 00:32:46.079 cheese -eating surrender monkeys, and our pacifist 00:32:46.079 --> 00:32:50.559 Japanese, and it's us. We are the power. And 00:32:50.559 --> 00:32:52.599 what they didn't understand is that American 00:32:52.599 --> 00:32:56.279 power was amplified by having all of Europe as 00:32:56.279 --> 00:32:59.279 its ally, by having Japan as its ally, South 00:32:59.279 --> 00:33:02.500 Korea as its ally. The United States wasn't just 00:33:02.500 --> 00:33:05.160 the United States. It was in charge of more than 00:33:05.160 --> 00:33:07.480 half of the world's economy through its allies. 00:33:08.180 --> 00:33:12.900 That's why it was this great global power. And 00:33:12.900 --> 00:33:15.579 if the United States now has no ally, that's 00:33:15.579 --> 00:33:17.980 what MAGA is saying. I mean, if you read things 00:33:17.980 --> 00:33:20.500 like the National Defense Strategy. or whatever 00:33:20.500 --> 00:33:23.660 that document was last November, they're basically 00:33:23.660 --> 00:33:26.359 saying we really have, we are Western hemisphere 00:33:26.359 --> 00:33:30.559 focused and we're not global, we're our allies. 00:33:30.660 --> 00:33:32.900 Western Europe was indeed presented as a problem, 00:33:33.039 --> 00:33:36.079 that Europeans were a problem to the United States. 00:33:36.180 --> 00:33:38.299 And the United States is going to wake up in 00:33:38.299 --> 00:33:40.900 a few years time and realize they have lost their 00:33:40.900 --> 00:33:45.839 alliances entirely by choice. That's the perplexing 00:33:45.839 --> 00:33:49.400 thing. The United States chose under no pressure, 00:33:50.029 --> 00:33:52.829 to give up an alliance system that made it strong. 00:33:53.390 --> 00:33:55.849 And it doesn't feel it now because people just 00:33:55.849 --> 00:33:59.789 care about the price of gas in their cars. But 00:33:59.789 --> 00:34:03.049 what they don't realize is the stability we had 00:34:03.049 --> 00:34:06.049 in the world, and the world was actually remarkably 00:34:06.049 --> 00:34:10.570 stable for 90, 80 years, was because of the U 00:34:10.570 --> 00:34:14.630 .S. alliance system. And without that, the world's 00:34:14.630 --> 00:34:17.010 going to be a far more unstable place, and the 00:34:17.010 --> 00:34:19.670 United States chose to end it. That's what Maga 00:34:19.670 --> 00:34:23.349 did. Aye, this is not good. But let's talk a 00:34:23.349 --> 00:34:25.969 little bit back to Ukraine. Are we watching a 00:34:25.969 --> 00:34:29.110 true revolution in warfare, given with the drones 00:34:29.110 --> 00:34:30.570 and the way they're fighting there? Or is this 00:34:30.570 --> 00:34:32.869 simply the latest version of an old pattern where, 00:34:32.949 --> 00:34:35.230 you know, you find new ways to do something, 00:34:35.230 --> 00:34:37.110 the tank comes along and then you have to create 00:34:37.110 --> 00:34:41.309 something, the airplane and vice versa and back 00:34:41.309 --> 00:34:43.489 and forth? What are we seeing right now? What 00:34:43.489 --> 00:34:45.340 are we witnessing? We are witnessing something 00:34:45.340 --> 00:34:47.760 really important, and that is the swing away 00:34:47.760 --> 00:34:50.619 from the unfortunate thing that made the U .S. 00:34:50.619 --> 00:34:53.260 very powerful for a long time, the highly advanced, 00:34:53.539 --> 00:34:57.860 exquisite piece of military equipment. The F 00:34:57.860 --> 00:35:02.179 -35, really the aircraft carrier, the small number 00:35:02.179 --> 00:35:06.340 of hyper -advanced military machines that only 00:35:06.340 --> 00:35:09.719 one power could make, or a small number of powers 00:35:09.719 --> 00:35:12.269 could make, which were the core. Now what we 00:35:12.269 --> 00:35:15.590 see in Ukraine is the exquisite has a real problem. 00:35:15.750 --> 00:35:17.409 And by the way, we're seeing that in the Gulf 00:35:17.409 --> 00:35:23.289 too. The exquisite, if it can be matched by massive 00:35:23.289 --> 00:35:27.650 cheap systems, loses a lot of its value. So in 00:35:27.650 --> 00:35:29.449 Ukraine, what we're seeing is that something 00:35:29.449 --> 00:35:33.710 like the expensive battle tank, what's the point 00:35:33.710 --> 00:35:36.760 of it? when it costs tens of millions of dollars, 00:35:36.880 --> 00:35:39.719 when you can have drones that cost two or three 00:35:39.719 --> 00:35:43.360 hundred dollars represent a threat to it. And 00:35:43.360 --> 00:35:48.980 so the real change is the growth of cheap mass 00:35:48.980 --> 00:35:52.619 systems that are going to represent a threat 00:35:52.619 --> 00:35:55.699 that the large, exquisite, expensive systems 00:35:55.699 --> 00:36:00.000 are struggling with hugely. And that's not just 00:36:00.000 --> 00:36:03.139 the Russians, that's also the USA. Does that 00:36:03.139 --> 00:36:06.039 mean something for large, powerful countries? 00:36:06.119 --> 00:36:10.599 Does it make us less powerful, less ability to 00:36:10.599 --> 00:36:12.679 do things on the world stage? Like I've seen, 00:36:12.699 --> 00:36:14.219 you know, if we look back, we've essentially 00:36:14.219 --> 00:36:17.420 lost most of the wars we've done recently in 00:36:17.420 --> 00:36:18.840 the sense strategically we were trying to do 00:36:18.840 --> 00:36:20.820 something and we didn't get what we wanted to 00:36:20.820 --> 00:36:24.460 do. Is this ability of big powers to sort of 00:36:24.460 --> 00:36:27.800 get their way militarily at some point going 00:36:27.800 --> 00:36:32.619 to be? I mean, the Russians are not getting their 00:36:32.619 --> 00:36:34.980 way in Ukraine and the United States did not 00:36:34.980 --> 00:36:37.719 get its way in Iran. The best Chinese choice 00:36:37.719 --> 00:36:39.800 actually for a while, and Chinese foreign policy 00:36:39.800 --> 00:36:42.400 used to be disastrous, is not to do that much, 00:36:42.500 --> 00:36:47.039 not to sit back and let the Americans make the 00:36:47.039 --> 00:36:49.719 mistakes. I think what we're learning is, which 00:36:49.719 --> 00:36:51.960 we should have learned before, the limitations 00:36:51.960 --> 00:36:55.039 of military power. My real worry is that this 00:36:55.039 --> 00:36:58.820 Pentagon, led by the Secretary of Defense and 00:36:58.820 --> 00:37:01.780 this president, cannot be the ones to modernize 00:37:01.780 --> 00:37:03.699 the U .S. military and adjust to this world. 00:37:03.840 --> 00:37:07.199 They are simply not capable of doing it. And 00:37:07.199 --> 00:37:10.260 if they get an extra $500 billion, which is what 00:37:10.260 --> 00:37:12.280 they're asking for, it's just going to make things 00:37:12.280 --> 00:37:15.840 worse because it's going to be money thrown at 00:37:15.840 --> 00:37:22.320 morons. And that's my worry. That's fair. Do 00:37:22.320 --> 00:37:24.619 you think the Chinese are getting the memo here? 00:37:24.719 --> 00:37:26.099 Do you think they're sort of saying to themselves, 00:37:26.199 --> 00:37:29.079 listen, this notion that big powers can use their 00:37:29.079 --> 00:37:31.079 military to get their way doesn't seem to be 00:37:31.079 --> 00:37:33.400 working for anyone. Or are they convinced that 00:37:33.400 --> 00:37:35.900 Taiwan's so important, they're so powerful that 00:37:35.900 --> 00:37:37.440 they'll be able to do it when the time comes? 00:37:37.760 --> 00:37:39.840 I don't know. I mean, in some sense, we can't 00:37:39.840 --> 00:37:41.539 lie. The Chinese military is probably making 00:37:41.539 --> 00:37:44.059 a lot of stupid decisions, too. And Xi is purging 00:37:44.059 --> 00:37:47.650 the Chinese military right and left. The one, 00:37:47.809 --> 00:37:50.050 I think, worrying sign, and this is worrying, 00:37:50.210 --> 00:37:53.369 is the Chinese seem less focused on the idea 00:37:53.369 --> 00:37:55.650 of an invasion of Taiwan, which I think would 00:37:55.650 --> 00:37:58.489 be a catastrophe for them if they tried to D 00:37:58.489 --> 00:38:01.030 -Day Taiwan. That's a really hard thing to do. 00:38:01.289 --> 00:38:04.050 And they're moving more towards a blockade distance 00:38:04.050 --> 00:38:06.789 strategy, which is a real problem for Taiwan 00:38:06.789 --> 00:38:10.409 and a real problem for the USA. So if that's 00:38:10.409 --> 00:38:12.449 true, and that's what we're seeing from some 00:38:12.449 --> 00:38:16.369 Chinese moves, that they're going to that kind 00:38:16.369 --> 00:38:19.389 of strategy, that is a sign that they're learning 00:38:19.389 --> 00:38:23.750 and adjusting to this world. Worryingly so, I 00:38:23.750 --> 00:38:25.630 would say, or a bit more than the United States 00:38:25.630 --> 00:38:28.289 that went into Iran and tried to fight the last 00:38:28.289 --> 00:38:31.710 war. Yes. All right. Well, just a couple more 00:38:31.710 --> 00:38:33.289 questions before I let you go, because you have 00:38:33.289 --> 00:38:37.010 bigger things to do. authoritarian systems often 00:38:37.010 --> 00:38:40.250 survive these kind of defeats by renaming them 00:38:40.250 --> 00:38:42.730 victories. This is what Putin has done. The Soviet 00:38:42.730 --> 00:38:45.389 Union did it. Saddam did it. Putin does it. Trump 00:38:45.389 --> 00:38:48.030 seems to be doing that now. What's the downside? 00:38:48.170 --> 00:38:50.329 What's the long -term damage that this causes 00:38:50.329 --> 00:38:53.630 when you try to control history and the narrative 00:38:53.630 --> 00:38:59.320 and propaganda? The one positive thing is he 00:38:59.320 --> 00:39:00.940 hasn't seemed to be able to do that for most 00:39:00.940 --> 00:39:03.820 American people. I mean, he has his base, and 00:39:03.820 --> 00:39:07.119 they will believe anything he says. And he said, 00:39:07.219 --> 00:39:09.860 I've beaten Iran, I've humiliated Iran, I've 00:39:09.860 --> 00:39:13.119 crushed Iran, and 30 % of America will absolutely 00:39:13.119 --> 00:39:15.559 say, yes, you have, and we love you, and that's 00:39:15.559 --> 00:39:19.179 entirely right. However, more Americans don't 00:39:19.179 --> 00:39:21.420 seem to be persuaded of this argument. In the 00:39:21.420 --> 00:39:23.780 polls, we see most Americans believe the war 00:39:23.780 --> 00:39:27.139 had no point, the war was a waste. that the war 00:39:27.139 --> 00:39:30.380 achieved little. So I think Trump is struggling 00:39:30.380 --> 00:39:33.739 to do that nationally, whereas he's done it with 00:39:33.739 --> 00:39:35.739 his base because they'll believe anything he 00:39:35.739 --> 00:39:38.639 says. If we see more and more American people 00:39:38.639 --> 00:39:40.840 accepting the idea that they did well in this 00:39:40.840 --> 00:39:43.199 war, that's a worry. That means Trump is winning 00:39:43.199 --> 00:39:44.860 the narrative fight. And by the way, that's the 00:39:44.860 --> 00:39:46.960 only fight that matters to him now. He couldn't 00:39:46.960 --> 00:39:50.579 care less about Iran. He just wants out. He just 00:39:50.579 --> 00:39:55.159 wants out. So all he's all he's doing now is 00:39:55.159 --> 00:39:58.239 trying to win the debate within the USA. So far, 00:39:58.260 --> 00:40:00.340 he's not winning that debate. And that's positive. 00:40:00.480 --> 00:40:03.780 If he does, it's really worrying. But the real 00:40:03.780 --> 00:40:08.440 pain of what we did in Iran was felt outside 00:40:08.440 --> 00:40:10.719 of the United States. I mean, we have such a 00:40:10.719 --> 00:40:13.980 large energy industry. You know, yes, gas went 00:40:13.980 --> 00:40:17.570 up some. Yes, there's some inflation. But there's 00:40:17.570 --> 00:40:19.130 countries where literally they had to go from 00:40:19.130 --> 00:40:21.289 five day work weeks to three day work weeks that 00:40:21.289 --> 00:40:23.809 couldn't do start growing season. They caused 00:40:23.809 --> 00:40:27.389 real pain and suffering that didn't happen here 00:40:27.389 --> 00:40:31.210 in the United States. And so, you know, I worry, 00:40:31.289 --> 00:40:33.550 like you talked about earlier, that the rest 00:40:33.550 --> 00:40:36.489 of the world were in the past when the U .S. 00:40:36.489 --> 00:40:38.789 made blunder, strategic blunders and mistakes. 00:40:39.389 --> 00:40:41.289 People said, hey, you know, it's better to have 00:40:41.289 --> 00:40:43.329 America leading than not leading, even if we're 00:40:43.329 --> 00:40:46.000 upset about what they're doing. Now we're causing 00:40:46.000 --> 00:40:48.559 the world such pain and we look to be such a 00:40:48.559 --> 00:40:51.940 corrupt country that we're not going to get our 00:40:51.940 --> 00:40:54.539 way like we did in the past, even when people 00:40:54.539 --> 00:40:56.980 were frustrated with us. No, I mean, U .S. friends 00:40:56.980 --> 00:40:59.300 around the world. I mean, let's look at the Europeans 00:40:59.300 --> 00:41:02.260 basically now think the U .S. started a war that 00:41:02.260 --> 00:41:04.739 harmed Europe and didn't care about Europe. So 00:41:04.739 --> 00:41:07.420 that's the way it's seen here. But the more even 00:41:07.420 --> 00:41:10.280 were the Gulf states who fought side by side 00:41:10.280 --> 00:41:12.400 with the U .S. in this war no longer believe 00:41:12.400 --> 00:41:15.380 in the United States. A lot of those Gulf states. 00:41:15.679 --> 00:41:18.400 South Asia, Philippines, Vietnam, all these places 00:41:18.400 --> 00:41:20.019 are suffering because of it. I didn't have time 00:41:20.019 --> 00:41:23.019 to get there, John. It's so many countries. Basically, 00:41:23.440 --> 00:41:27.239 if you look at the arc of American friends and 00:41:27.239 --> 00:41:31.280 allies, no one is convinced of the U .S. being 00:41:31.280 --> 00:41:34.420 reliable and a partner on whom they should base 00:41:34.420 --> 00:41:37.239 their future security. The Gulf states are now 00:41:37.239 --> 00:41:40.559 reaching out to Iran. So what we have done. is 00:41:40.559 --> 00:41:43.440 we have basically improved Iran's position because 00:41:43.440 --> 00:41:46.159 the United States seems so poor at running this 00:41:46.159 --> 00:41:53.260 war. Any hope, any optimism here? Well, I mean, 00:41:53.300 --> 00:41:55.900 the midterm elections, we'll see whether the 00:41:55.900 --> 00:41:59.400 American people really want to change. The other 00:41:59.400 --> 00:42:02.179 signs of optimism is that Europe and places like 00:42:02.179 --> 00:42:04.420 Japan are waking up. And if the United States 00:42:04.420 --> 00:42:07.670 ever regains its senses. then actually there 00:42:07.670 --> 00:42:09.989 will be better partners for the United States 00:42:09.989 --> 00:42:14.349 and more powerful partners who are willing to 00:42:14.349 --> 00:42:16.030 look after themselves. That means the United 00:42:16.030 --> 00:42:18.570 States will be able to automatically lead like 00:42:18.570 --> 00:42:21.690 it did in the past, but actually it could have 00:42:21.690 --> 00:42:26.389 stronger partners going forward than it had before. 00:42:27.730 --> 00:42:29.449 All right, well, that seems to make sense. Maybe 00:42:29.449 --> 00:42:31.329 this is one of these big turning points in history 00:42:31.329 --> 00:42:34.909 that... Maybe Trump got us there in the wrong 00:42:34.909 --> 00:42:40.010 way. It didn't have to be quite this dramatic. 00:42:40.670 --> 00:42:42.289 That's exactly right. Well, you've been really 00:42:42.289 --> 00:42:44.389 generous with your time. Thank you for talking 00:42:44.389 --> 00:42:47.369 to us. I'd love to, but anytime. Perspective 00:42:47.369 --> 00:42:50.769 here. And I would suggest that people follow 00:42:50.769 --> 00:42:53.710 Phillips. He's got a sub stack that is fantastic 00:42:53.710 --> 00:42:57.510 to read. And when you see his moniker on The 00:42:57.510 --> 00:42:59.929 Atlantic or you hear him on NPR or any of these 00:42:59.929 --> 00:43:02.449 other places, you should pay attention. And what 00:43:02.449 --> 00:43:05.150 is your next book you're working on? Well, I 00:43:05.150 --> 00:43:06.630 mean, I assume you're working on a new book. 00:43:06.650 --> 00:43:09.369 Yeah, I am working on a new one, but it's not 00:43:09.369 --> 00:43:13.239 entirely signed and sealed. What I will say I'm 00:43:13.239 --> 00:43:15.940 most interested in is the history of military 00:43:15.940 --> 00:43:18.519 logistics, going back to the classical period, 00:43:18.619 --> 00:43:22.340 all the way to Russia, Ukraine, and even China, 00:43:22.559 --> 00:43:26.900 US -Taiwan war. So it's basically a study of 00:43:26.900 --> 00:43:30.079 historical military logistics. What do you think 00:43:30.079 --> 00:43:32.760 you'll find? What's the thesis here? Well, everyone 00:43:32.760 --> 00:43:36.900 says amateur tactics. I'm sorry. Amateurs discuss 00:43:36.900 --> 00:43:39.940 tactics and experts discuss logistics. If that's 00:43:39.940 --> 00:43:41.360 true, what's interesting is there are hardly 00:43:41.360 --> 00:43:43.340 any experts in the historical profession because 00:43:43.340 --> 00:43:45.840 nobody writes about logistics and everybody writes 00:43:45.840 --> 00:43:48.480 about tactics. So it's a way to say, actually, 00:43:48.519 --> 00:43:50.559 this is how logistics work and this is why they 00:43:50.559 --> 00:43:53.400 matter. Well, outstanding. Well, when that comes 00:43:53.400 --> 00:43:55.360 out, I will read it, certainly, and I hope other 00:43:55.360 --> 00:43:57.980 people do as well. So, Bill O 'Brien, thank you 00:43:57.980 --> 00:44:00.659 so much for your time and really appreciate it. 00:44:01.929 --> 00:44:04.090 For people, this has been the Steady State Sentinel. 00:44:04.409 --> 00:44:06.070 If you like what you're hearing, please subscribe 00:44:06.070 --> 00:44:08.969 to the Sentinel and follow Steady State content. 00:44:10.210 --> 00:44:12.590 And if you can give us a review, that would be 00:44:12.590 --> 00:44:14.590 great. They help us get the content to a wider 00:44:14.590 --> 00:44:16.309 audience. So thank you very much, everybody. 00:44:16.489 --> 00:44:19.170 And thank you to you, Phillips. Take care, Don. 00:44:19.429 --> 00:44:24.849 We're done. Thank you for listening to the Steady 00:44:24.849 --> 00:44:28.429 State Sentinel podcast. Don't miss out on more 00:44:28.429 --> 00:44:31.610 insights and exposés from America's premier global 00:44:31.610 --> 00:44:35.349 security experts. Also, subscribe to our Substack 00:44:35.349 --> 00:44:40.489 at substack .com slash at SteadyState1 and follow 00:44:40.489 --> 00:44:42.949 our social media and join us right here next 00:44:42.949 --> 00:44:46.429 week for another exciting edition. The Steady 00:44:46.429 --> 00:44:49.210 State is a nonprofit organization working to 00:44:49.210 --> 00:44:51.269 sustain our democracy and national security. 00:44:52.329 --> 00:44:55.750 Join us and support our mission by visiting www 00:44:55.750 --> 00:44:57.909 .thesteadysstate .org.