WEBVTT - Generated by AI

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Something is changing in our country, and most

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people feel it before they can explain it. Today

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on the Steady State Sentinel, we're joined by

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Russ Travers, one of the most experienced intelligence

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and counterintelligence officials of his generation.

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Over a career spanning roughly 45 years in the

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intelligence community, he served in senior roles

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across the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint

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Staff, National Intelligence Council, the National

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Security Council, and the National Counterterrorism

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Center. He helped build the post -9 -11 counterterrorism

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architecture. He later served as acting director

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of the NCTC and in the Biden administration as

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deputy homeland security advisor. And he also

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has a new book coming out, Common Sense Take

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Two, which we're going to discuss. Russ has also

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been a serious writer and critic of the intelligence

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system. His 1997 essay, The Coming Intelligence

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Failure, written inside the Intelligence Communities

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magazine, warned of that dysfunction, budget

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pressures, and the bureaucratic habits that leave

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the country vulnerable to surprise. Got that

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right. And he has obviously written on many matters

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since. So, Russ, welcome and glad to have you

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here. Well, it's great to be with you, John.

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Thanks very much. Of course. Let's talk a little

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bit about you and then we'll get into talking

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about the book and what's going on nowadays.

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But you began your career in Army Intelligence

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in the late 1970s and later served across DIA,

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the Joint Staff, NSC, ATC. So looking back, what

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problem in the national security system kept

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recurring no matter where you sat? Well, I mean,

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the system was designed. for a world that existed

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75 years ago with the National Security Act.

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And I came in as a Soviet military analyst. That

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was the problem at the time. Very quickly, I

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think, as a result of the forces of globalization,

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problems weren't purely military anymore. They

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were almost by definition interagency. uh department

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and adc equities were confronted with with all

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problems of any consequence and we simply weren't

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structured for that and so as you suggested over

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the last 20 or so of years of my career i was

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primarily focused on interagency organizations

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whether it was the nic or nctc or the national

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security council because i just i very much believe

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that if if we're going to get this right we have

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to do it in kind of a whole of government fashion

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We just don't do that very well. Well, I think

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sadly that's true. So I mentioned your piece,

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your 1997 piece written before 9 -11, where you

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argued that the system was dysfunctional enough

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that failure was essentially guaranteed. And

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it turned out to be right. Obviously, 9 -11 came

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not long after that. What did you see then that

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others are missing? What were the key things

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that suggested that warning wasn't functional

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properly? Well, I mean, honestly, I don't think

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it was just me. I think that the bowels of the

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intel community, there was a kind of a pretty

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widely held perception that we were not on the

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right track. You remember that this was the time

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of the peace dividend. And rather than address

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kind of the constellation of organizations and

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authorities, we just tried to salami slice the

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community. In particular, we focused on trying

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to divide the labor. CIA would do political and

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econ. DIA would do defense and so forth. And

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unfortunately, the world doesn't operate that

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way. I mean, every problem is a combination of

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political, economic, and sociological, military,

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and technical. And if we don't have an ability

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to fuse those issues, we're going to get it wrong.

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And we clearly did. Well. Thank you for writing

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that. People should have paid more attention,

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obviously. But yeah, we were more interested

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in saving money at that time than we were of

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dealing with systemic problems. So you spent

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much of your career then subsequently on counterterrorism

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and counterterrorism issues. And so, as you know,

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Sebastian Gorka just presented the Trump administration's

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latest 2026 U .S. counterterrorism strategy,

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identifying violent left -wing extremists like

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Antifa as the critical terrorist threat category.

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It focuses on like radically pro -transgender

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groups and others. You've been working on counterterrorism

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and you've been remarking on counterterrorism

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lately. I think your discussion amongst others

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is far more complex than the Trump administration

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sort of view of things. How can professionals

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and practitioners who do their job and see how

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complex it is on the ground deal with a system

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where their leaders don't want to hear? That

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complexity, like what's your what's your take

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on all of this? Well, I read the document when

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it came out and was just shaking my head, as

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I think virtually all professional counterterrorism

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individuals are. I mean, there is certainly left

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wing terrorism to be dealt with, but to basically

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ignore right wing terrorism or to essentially

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dismiss Africa, for instance, because it's not.

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America first. The notion, again, back to my

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point about globalization, things in Africa don't

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stay in Africa, as we're seeing with Ebola. We're

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going to see with terrorism as well. And unfortunately,

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if you've got an administration that doesn't

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understand the way the world works, we're going

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to go through some very difficult times, less

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than until that perspective changes. That's why

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elections are important. Well, and they're also

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pulling resources from areas that are of importance

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to try to fit an ideological or whatever the

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right term is, or partisan view of the world.

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And as you talked about in many of your writings,

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career civil servants, intelligence practitioners,

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we have to deal with the world as it is. And

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if your leaders are telling you, no, it's this

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way. I don't know how we operate in that post

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-truth environment if you're an intelligence

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officer. Yeah, I mean, I think there has always

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been almost a, by definition, tension between

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an intel community that tries to be impartial

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and objective and a policy community that comes

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in with pretty strongly held opinions, be they

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Democrat or Republican. This one's different,

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for sure. I've never seen an intel community

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just... completely dismissed the way this one

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has. And that's just extraordinarily dangerous.

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Well, let's say Congress gets its act together

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and they're going to rewrite the national security

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architecture for the next 25 years. What would

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you preserve from the post 9 -11 era? What would

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you dismantle? Like you were looking at it in

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the late 1990s and you give some very thoughtful

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comments about it. What would you do if... Serious

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people came to you and said, what does the intelligence

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community need to move forward in this century?

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So I guess my own view would be that we will

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be judged by whether or not we deal well with

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the downsides of globalization. And for me, that

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means problem sets that transcend the equities

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of any particular department or agency. The answer,

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I think, has to be, how do we figure out how

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to do all of government, all of society, and

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when appropriate, whole of world -ish problems

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and sort of responses to problems? And so the

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National Security Council, for me, is a big deal.

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People like to trash it as micromanaging. That's

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not my perspective. I haven't seen it. Similarly,

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I thought that the National Security Council...

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terrorism sculpture was the right answer to deal

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with the terrorism problem. John Brennan, when

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he stood it up, said that at some point the U

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.S. government would take its eye off of terrorism

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because it was no longer the number one priority

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and we needed someplace that would be worrying

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the problem 24 -7. Well, I think that's what

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happened in 2017 -19 and unfortunately we...

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cut NCTC because the departments and agencies

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wanted to preserve resources. I think that was

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the wrong answer. If I were working for a day,

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I would invest in NCTC in a big way. But I would

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also take a hard look at how does this country

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deal with transnational organized crime, which

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has far more impact on people's lives than terrorism

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ever will. We don't do it very well. We're extraordinarily

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balkanized. So I would have a transnational crime

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center. We look at cyber, the notion that, you

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know, appoint a cyber director at the White House

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level and everything's going to get fixed is

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crazy. There are still all kinds of issues between

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CISA and the Bureau and NSA. How do you work

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that in a way that is going to be whole of government?

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But, oh, by the way, most of this effort is actually

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done in the private sector. So now you've got

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to think about how you bring the government and

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the private sector together. We don't do that

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at all. I tried to bring private sector individuals

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into NCPC, and the lawyers wouldn't let us do

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it because we'd be giving an advantage to one

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sector over another. Okay, it's a hard problem,

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but we have to be able to address it, I think.

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Let's talk about your book a little bit. And

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we'll use that to discuss some of the things

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that are happening now. So your book consciously

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models itself on Thomas Paine's Common Sense,

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right? Because you believe we're at a decisive

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civil moment. I do. And you address the book

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to the exhausted majority, and I agree with that.

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Who exactly are you trying to reach, and what

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do you hope they do differently after reading

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it? So, as you say, when Thomas Paine wrote Common

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Sense, he wasn't writing for... convinced revolutionaries

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or confirmed loyalists. He was writing for what

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historians believe was at least a plurality,

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if not a majority of the colonists who were very

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uncertain about what the future held and what

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form of government. They were still British citizens,

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but they were aggrieved. How did they fix it?

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And Paine, in a sense, catalyzed the revolution

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by convincing the middle. that they needed to

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engage with the revolution. I kind of think we're

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at the same point. A public policy group called

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More in Common coined the phrase exhausted majority

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six, seven, eight years ago, I think. And their

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polling data showed that it was about 67 % of

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the American public. Neither extreme left, neither

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extreme right. extraordinarily frustrated with

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our government. The polarization is maddening.

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They want the country to work for as many people

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as it can, as well as it can. And it's not. And

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so what I try to do in a relatively straightforward,

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non -academic fashion is examine the problem

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sets and lay out not only the near -term. but

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also some of the longer term systemic issues

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that we're going to have to address if we're

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going to fix this. And in the book, you also

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argue that, you know, defeating MAGA or Trumpism

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is necessary, but not sufficient. Like the problems

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are systemic. They need more systemic answers.

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And what are the deeper problems that would remain

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even after, say, an electoral defeat? You cite

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the failure of government, you just mentioned,

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to do these things. I mean, I think I came like

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you from institutional work, and I thought our

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institutions took their jobs very seriously and

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did a good job largely. But this sort of back

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on, quote unquote, the deep state, there's a

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lot of Americans who believe that now. So what

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do we do if Donald Trump loses their stillness

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view out there that the institutions are part

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of the problem when you and I think that they

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are not necessarily part of the problem? Well,

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there's certainly a lot of good in the civil

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service. And for instance, when I got fired the

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first time, I took issue with the notion of a

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deep state because that just wasn't what I had

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seen over my career. If we go back to the beginning

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of our careers, that's about the point when faith

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in institutions across the population started

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to decline. It's been going down for 50 years.

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Increasingly, the Congress is not able to deliver

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on the problems that Americans are most concerned

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about. And so in a almost perverse way, Mr. Trump

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was useful in that he shed light on problems

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that have existed for a very long time. Some

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of these go back to the challenges of democracy

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250 years ago and the gerrymandering system.

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early 19th century. And we've always had a bent

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conspiracy theory component of our population.

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And over time, I think our institutions have

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come under pressure. We get back to the point

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of a government that was formed 250 years ago

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may not be ideal for dealing with the world in

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the 21st century. And so... You get back to the

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point about the civil service, in which I believe

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in passionately. It's not perfect, for sure.

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But most of us are not narcissistic. We took

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an oath in the Constitution that we believed.

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We came to work wanting to do good and wanting

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to do well. And it's not to say that there isn't

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waste, that there aren't bad actors. But the

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civil service has worked. Tremendous damage.

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I mean, 300 ,000 odd people have left. Millions

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of person years have left the government and

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the expertise. And that's going to come back

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to haunt us. And so you start thinking about

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how do you fix that? All right. If you want a

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functional civil service that's reformed, you

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need Congress. If you need Congress to work,

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you've got to diminish. You're going to diminish

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polarization. That's really need to be done at

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the state level because that's who sends people

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to Congress. You want serious people in Congress.

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You're going to need to deal with electoral reforms

00:15:40.759 --> 00:15:43.279
at the state level. You're going to need to deal

00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:47.580
with education of our population. And so you

00:15:47.580 --> 00:15:51.320
pull on one problem and you just uncover all

00:15:51.320 --> 00:15:53.990
kinds of additional ones. I think one of the

00:15:53.990 --> 00:15:56.029
key themes in the book is that this stuff is

00:15:56.029 --> 00:15:59.330
all interrelated. And if we don't deal with it

00:15:59.330 --> 00:16:01.350
holistically, we're going to have a problem.

00:16:03.149 --> 00:16:05.149
And so when we talk about the failure of institutions,

00:16:05.350 --> 00:16:07.450
I think you're meaning large institutions like

00:16:07.450 --> 00:16:10.590
Congress. Because essentially, in my view, it's

00:16:10.590 --> 00:16:13.350
a failure of leadership. But institutions in

00:16:13.350 --> 00:16:18.450
the sense of the EPA and the CIA and the State

00:16:18.450 --> 00:16:20.570
Department, I think have been... If Americans

00:16:20.570 --> 00:16:23.210
knew about what good work has been done, our

00:16:23.210 --> 00:16:25.490
health is far better than it's been. You know,

00:16:25.529 --> 00:16:29.690
life, our lives are longer. You know, it's a

00:16:29.690 --> 00:16:32.169
healthier air we breathe, safer water we drink.

00:16:32.289 --> 00:16:35.570
You know, we've saved the world from lots of

00:16:35.570 --> 00:16:38.330
tremendous disasters around the world. You know,

00:16:38.330 --> 00:16:40.490
and so in some ways our institutions have worked

00:16:40.490 --> 00:16:43.230
very well, whereas our leadership, our political

00:16:43.230 --> 00:16:46.659
leadership. I think, hasn't and often even uses

00:16:46.659 --> 00:16:48.799
those institutions as someone to blame. That's

00:16:48.799 --> 00:16:51.559
the deep state game, right? Well, it's not us.

00:16:51.620 --> 00:16:54.080
It's these, you know, unelected bureaucrats that

00:16:54.080 --> 00:16:55.440
are a problem. But the unelected bureaucrats

00:16:55.440 --> 00:16:57.179
have actually done a pretty good job over the

00:16:57.179 --> 00:17:00.460
last 50 years. Yeah, I mean, like you, I mean,

00:17:00.480 --> 00:17:02.980
I worked for eight presidents, four Democrat,

00:17:03.120 --> 00:17:05.940
four Republican. It didn't matter. We were all

00:17:05.940 --> 00:17:09.900
trying to fulfill whatever the elected administration

00:17:09.900 --> 00:17:13.660
in this country wanted to do. And some of us

00:17:13.660 --> 00:17:15.680
are Democrats, some of us are Republicans, some

00:17:15.680 --> 00:17:19.779
of us are independent. And just it did not matter.

00:17:19.960 --> 00:17:22.319
And so you're quite right. And it's an important

00:17:22.319 --> 00:17:25.980
clarification. When I talk institutions, I mean

00:17:25.980 --> 00:17:30.279
things like the Congress. I do think there are

00:17:30.279 --> 00:17:32.400
challenges in the executive branch, to be sure.

00:17:33.039 --> 00:17:36.240
I would consider our educational system as an

00:17:36.240 --> 00:17:38.779
institution that needs to be fixed. The Supreme

00:17:38.779 --> 00:17:41.799
Court is a problem in this environment. And so

00:17:41.799 --> 00:17:46.400
there are many reforms that need to occur. And

00:17:46.400 --> 00:17:49.799
I would argue the civil service, I mean, the

00:17:49.799 --> 00:17:52.960
Pencil Act is, I mean, it's 100 years old. It

00:17:52.960 --> 00:17:56.839
probably needs to be updated. But as a general

00:17:56.839 --> 00:18:00.319
proposition, we absolutely need an impartial

00:18:00.319 --> 00:18:04.579
civil service to make government work. You just

00:18:04.579 --> 00:18:06.319
mentioned that, like, all of these things are

00:18:06.319 --> 00:18:09.420
interconnected so that, you know, if... You know,

00:18:09.420 --> 00:18:10.940
for the institution to get fixed, you have to

00:18:10.940 --> 00:18:13.200
have Congress, but Congress needs others. And

00:18:13.200 --> 00:18:18.319
so for real democratic renewal, there are repairs

00:18:18.319 --> 00:18:20.859
that need to be made. You talk about civic atrophy.

00:18:20.940 --> 00:18:23.359
So it sounds to me in a certain sense that, you

00:18:23.359 --> 00:18:26.680
know, evolving these from the top down aren't

00:18:26.680 --> 00:18:29.319
necessarily the answer. Like, we actually need,

00:18:29.319 --> 00:18:31.359
you know, things to also work from the bottom

00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:33.519
up. You know, education, civic understanding,

00:18:33.859 --> 00:18:37.119
civic education, these type of things so that...

00:18:37.240 --> 00:18:38.819
They work in concert with each other because

00:18:38.819 --> 00:18:40.420
you can fix one or two of these institutions.

00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:43.039
It's not going to work its way through the whole

00:18:43.039 --> 00:18:47.079
system. That is exactly right. And a hundred

00:18:47.079 --> 00:18:51.759
years ago, Dewey and Littman debated about how

00:18:51.759 --> 00:18:54.880
things get done in democracies. And Littman was

00:18:54.880 --> 00:18:59.059
very much a fan of having a really strong elite

00:18:59.059 --> 00:19:02.480
that was going to run the country. And Dewey

00:19:02.480 --> 00:19:05.380
thought we needed to have really bright. people

00:19:05.380 --> 00:19:08.039
that were educated that could inform sort of

00:19:08.039 --> 00:19:11.700
their leaders. Well, in reality, it's both. And

00:19:11.700 --> 00:19:13.920
so there's going to be some top down for sure,

00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:18.299
a role for the elite. But if we don't get the

00:19:18.299 --> 00:19:21.259
American public, again, the exhausted majority

00:19:21.259 --> 00:19:25.359
to care about what's going on in this country

00:19:25.359 --> 00:19:28.660
and to engage in ways that they can address problems,

00:19:28.980 --> 00:19:34.190
we're going to be in a world of hurt. How do

00:19:34.190 --> 00:19:38.069
you, the book points out so many of these challenges

00:19:38.069 --> 00:19:40.630
and it looks almost daunting, but how do you

00:19:40.630 --> 00:19:43.769
remain optimistic in this era of nowadays with

00:19:43.769 --> 00:19:46.890
turbocharged AI and gerrymandering and conspiracy

00:19:46.890 --> 00:19:51.109
thinking and intellectualism and economic inequality,

00:19:51.349 --> 00:19:53.170
all the declining trust, you mentioned all these

00:19:53.170 --> 00:19:55.410
kinds of things, but the book posits sort of,

00:19:55.410 --> 00:19:59.029
you know, an optimistic view that. And you often

00:19:59.029 --> 00:20:00.730
you suggest, I think, in the book, if I read

00:20:00.730 --> 00:20:03.269
it correctly, that sort of this policy overreach

00:20:03.269 --> 00:20:05.430
of this administration, the moral overreach of

00:20:05.430 --> 00:20:09.150
this administration, Christian nationalism, overattack

00:20:09.150 --> 00:20:12.990
on immigration, militarized politics. You suggest

00:20:12.990 --> 00:20:15.450
they're likely to alienate much of this exhausted

00:20:15.450 --> 00:20:18.509
majority and that things are likely to get better.

00:20:18.569 --> 00:20:20.569
I hope you're right. What's your take on that?

00:20:21.109 --> 00:20:24.190
I think the polling data is just unequivocal

00:20:24.190 --> 00:20:28.680
that that the overreach has caused. a substantial

00:20:28.680 --> 00:20:31.980
portion of the people that voted for Mr. Trump.

00:20:32.140 --> 00:20:34.779
And, you know, again, the polling data would

00:20:34.779 --> 00:20:37.200
suggest that roughly half the Republican Party

00:20:37.200 --> 00:20:42.140
is MAGA. The other 30, 40 million people that

00:20:42.140 --> 00:20:45.680
voted for him is some for sure Republicans, a

00:20:45.680 --> 00:20:49.000
lot of independents that were put off by some

00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:53.250
of President Biden's actions. They're the ones,

00:20:53.410 --> 00:20:55.930
I think, that fall within the category of the

00:20:55.930 --> 00:20:58.509
exhausted majority that are turning away from

00:20:58.509 --> 00:21:00.769
President Trump. And as I say in the book, if

00:21:00.769 --> 00:21:05.789
he had focused on immigration policy solely the

00:21:05.789 --> 00:21:09.269
truly worst of the worst, he would have had the

00:21:09.269 --> 00:21:11.789
bulk of the American public on board with him.

00:21:12.269 --> 00:21:17.650
But separating families and this mass deportation

00:21:17.650 --> 00:21:20.309
of individuals who have done absolutely nothing

00:21:20.309 --> 00:21:24.130
wrong except cross the border, absolutely a violation,

00:21:24.410 --> 00:21:27.069
but they have not conducted a crime in the United

00:21:27.069 --> 00:21:31.450
States. And so I do think the elections will

00:21:31.450 --> 00:21:34.769
be somewhat self -correcting. And then, as you

00:21:34.769 --> 00:21:37.250
say, the key is that's going to be necessary,

00:21:37.490 --> 00:21:42.029
but not sufficient. What I hope is going to happen

00:21:42.029 --> 00:21:46.390
is that you will have people interested in taking

00:21:46.390 --> 00:21:49.970
a hard look at what do we need to do to address

00:21:49.970 --> 00:21:53.589
these issues. It's going to be, in my opinion,

00:21:53.630 --> 00:21:57.730
much broader than a Project 2029. There has to

00:21:57.730 --> 00:22:00.970
be that kind of focus on the excesses of the

00:22:00.970 --> 00:22:04.630
Trump administration. But the problems, as we've

00:22:04.630 --> 00:22:09.640
talked, are much, much deeper. That gets to kind

00:22:09.640 --> 00:22:13.180
of a willingness to engage over the long term

00:22:13.180 --> 00:22:17.059
in these systemic problems. And the reason I

00:22:17.059 --> 00:22:21.259
guess I'm optimistic is because I do have faith

00:22:21.259 --> 00:22:23.960
in the American public. I mean, I think that

00:22:23.960 --> 00:22:28.119
to More in Common's credit, most Americans are

00:22:28.119 --> 00:22:31.299
not polarized. Most Americans care about their

00:22:31.299 --> 00:22:33.799
families and their communities. They want to

00:22:33.799 --> 00:22:37.490
live in a good country. On the other hand. I

00:22:37.490 --> 00:22:41.650
can get pretty pessimistic at times because it's

00:22:41.650 --> 00:22:45.390
daunting to think about keeping people engaged

00:22:45.390 --> 00:22:49.710
for the long term and addressing interests that

00:22:49.710 --> 00:22:53.150
are going to be countered by a lot of money and

00:22:53.150 --> 00:22:56.430
a lot of power and the sort of technological

00:22:56.430 --> 00:22:59.130
advances that you alluded to that are occurring

00:22:59.130 --> 00:23:02.170
much faster than policy and law can talk with.

00:23:03.009 --> 00:23:06.849
So, Annette, am I... Do I think we're going to

00:23:06.849 --> 00:23:09.670
have a better life for our kids? I'm not convinced

00:23:09.670 --> 00:23:13.710
of that. And that's very sad and discouraging.

00:23:13.869 --> 00:23:17.710
But, you know, you've got to have hope. Yeah,

00:23:17.730 --> 00:23:19.710
I mean, you talk about faith in the public. And

00:23:19.710 --> 00:23:22.009
I grew up in that system, too, believing that,

00:23:22.029 --> 00:23:24.049
wanting to do it. But there is a large subset

00:23:24.049 --> 00:23:26.049
of Americans who don't want the things that you're

00:23:26.049 --> 00:23:29.910
suggesting. And that subset who has power wants

00:23:29.910 --> 00:23:33.099
to rig the system so that. There isn't a chance

00:23:33.099 --> 00:23:35.140
for these kind of reforms and things you're talking

00:23:35.140 --> 00:23:38.160
about. So, you know, you see people talk about

00:23:38.160 --> 00:23:42.740
this in the space now. It's like, how far do

00:23:42.740 --> 00:23:46.119
you go to fight against what you think is a tyranny

00:23:46.119 --> 00:23:48.740
or what have you? And like, do you, you know,

00:23:48.759 --> 00:23:50.400
if one side is gerrymandering, then you have

00:23:50.400 --> 00:23:52.180
to gerrymander. Like, at what point does that

00:23:52.180 --> 00:23:58.579
solve itself, if it does? For me, Congress is

00:23:58.579 --> 00:24:02.640
the hinge that we need. a Congress that can deal

00:24:02.640 --> 00:24:06.740
with sort of money and politics, accepting that

00:24:06.740 --> 00:24:10.019
you can only go so far with Supreme Court decisions.

00:24:11.000 --> 00:24:16.819
We need a legislature that can deal with proper

00:24:16.819 --> 00:24:21.680
regulation of AI and technology and privacy bill

00:24:21.680 --> 00:24:24.720
of rights and all of those sorts of things, which

00:24:24.720 --> 00:24:28.140
are just, it seems to me, incomprehensible now,

00:24:28.200 --> 00:24:33.970
which is a huge worry. But in order to get the

00:24:33.970 --> 00:24:36.009
kind of Congress that is going to be able to

00:24:36.009 --> 00:24:38.930
do this sort of thing, you've got to send serious

00:24:38.930 --> 00:24:42.150
legislators to Washington or to state capitals.

00:24:42.670 --> 00:24:46.950
And now you're back to that complicated array

00:24:46.950 --> 00:24:50.329
of courses. So you don't do that if you don't

00:24:50.329 --> 00:24:53.029
fix the primary system within the states. And

00:24:53.029 --> 00:24:54.670
you're not going to fix the primary situation

00:24:54.670 --> 00:24:57.329
in the states if you don't have people engaging.

00:24:58.220 --> 00:25:00.019
People aren't going to engage if they don't see

00:25:00.019 --> 00:25:02.559
what's at stake. And so that's an education issue.

00:25:02.839 --> 00:25:05.900
So all of these, for me, upstream issues from

00:25:05.900 --> 00:25:08.460
Congress are going to have to be addressed. And

00:25:08.460 --> 00:25:12.480
only after we start to see a critical mass of

00:25:12.480 --> 00:25:16.380
congressional representatives interested in government,

00:25:16.559 --> 00:25:20.619
not performative policy, that we start working

00:25:20.619 --> 00:25:23.819
on these really hard issues of health care and

00:25:23.819 --> 00:25:27.359
everything along those lines. Don't you see it

00:25:27.359 --> 00:25:29.990
going? other way. I mean, just in the last couple

00:25:29.990 --> 00:25:33.210
of days, there's been primaries where what I

00:25:33.210 --> 00:25:36.049
would consider almost radical right wing Republicans

00:25:36.049 --> 00:25:38.450
are losing to farther right wing people that

00:25:38.450 --> 00:25:41.029
Trump wants to push. And so if you're looking

00:25:41.029 --> 00:25:43.309
for more sensible people to come into Congress

00:25:43.309 --> 00:25:46.869
to help fix it, I don't see that happening. Do

00:25:46.869 --> 00:25:48.630
you believe like one of the things some people

00:25:48.630 --> 00:25:51.680
have talked about is. In the massive complexity

00:25:51.680 --> 00:25:55.119
of our huge country, we have very few legislators.

00:25:55.359 --> 00:25:58.140
Like, should we have actually more congressmen

00:25:58.140 --> 00:26:02.200
in smaller communities that have sort of real

00:26:02.200 --> 00:26:04.799
elections around real issues that deal with that

00:26:04.799 --> 00:26:06.960
community rather than what we have now, which

00:26:06.960 --> 00:26:09.720
is essentially almost so many of these congressional

00:26:09.720 --> 00:26:11.700
districts are nationalized. They're fighting

00:26:11.700 --> 00:26:15.319
national issues at the, you know, what Trump

00:26:15.319 --> 00:26:17.960
wants. In fact, they should be working on what...

00:26:18.109 --> 00:26:20.789
what matters to their smaller communities. Yeah.

00:26:20.890 --> 00:26:24.509
And I mean, I do think what you're going, maybe

00:26:24.509 --> 00:26:27.450
it's, hope it's not a plan, but I do think you're

00:26:27.450 --> 00:26:31.369
going to see a pretty significant recoil in the

00:26:31.369 --> 00:26:33.990
fall with the midterms. And we'll see. I mean,

00:26:34.009 --> 00:26:37.170
my guess is that the numbers would suggest that

00:26:37.170 --> 00:26:40.150
the gerrymandered districts on behalf of President

00:26:40.150 --> 00:26:42.150
Trump are probably not going to carry the day

00:26:42.150 --> 00:26:44.710
if the Democrats can get their act together.

00:26:45.470 --> 00:26:49.230
So let's assume that happens. Then you have very

00:26:49.230 --> 00:26:51.609
smart people. I mean, Danielle Allen, I think,

00:26:51.609 --> 00:26:53.390
is brilliant. I mean, she's been arguing for

00:26:53.390 --> 00:26:56.630
an increased size of the Congress for a very

00:26:56.630 --> 00:26:59.630
long time and has worked through how that could

00:26:59.630 --> 00:27:04.309
happen. You have many different suggestions on

00:27:04.309 --> 00:27:08.430
rank choice voting and multi -member districts

00:27:08.430 --> 00:27:11.930
and so forth at the state level. But that's only

00:27:11.930 --> 00:27:14.910
going to happen if people bring to bear practice.

00:27:15.049 --> 00:27:19.750
on their state representatives. And so, again,

00:27:19.789 --> 00:27:22.450
these things have to be sequenced properly, but

00:27:22.450 --> 00:27:25.089
you can at least see a way forward that it can

00:27:25.089 --> 00:27:28.470
work. Well, part of the problem of our system

00:27:28.470 --> 00:27:32.230
is that automatically weakens rural states and

00:27:32.230 --> 00:27:35.150
like the electoral college, like if you want

00:27:35.150 --> 00:27:38.609
more congresspeople, that means you're actually

00:27:38.609 --> 00:27:40.829
benefiting places that have larger populations.

00:27:42.000 --> 00:27:43.619
Therefore, these rural states are going to try

00:27:43.619 --> 00:27:46.400
to fight against it. And they have unusual power

00:27:46.400 --> 00:27:48.619
in our system because they have two senators

00:27:48.619 --> 00:27:51.779
when they don't have a population. So I don't

00:27:51.779 --> 00:27:53.759
mean to suggest these things can't be fixed,

00:27:53.819 --> 00:27:56.180
but there are a lot of challenges in the way,

00:27:56.200 --> 00:27:59.440
let's put it that way. No question whatsoever.

00:28:00.119 --> 00:28:04.720
But again, if you put your faith, I've got relatives

00:28:04.720 --> 00:28:07.940
around in Minnesota and Arkansas that live in

00:28:07.940 --> 00:28:12.480
cities and live in rural. I don't hear them lambasting

00:28:12.480 --> 00:28:15.799
sort of their democratic republic. I mean, they're

00:28:15.799 --> 00:28:20.640
very tied to their way of life and whatever their

00:28:20.640 --> 00:28:23.579
religious bent is and whatever their small government

00:28:23.579 --> 00:28:27.039
bent is, they just want things to work. And so

00:28:27.039 --> 00:28:29.400
if you kind of put your faith in the American

00:28:29.400 --> 00:28:32.359
public along those lines, then maybe there's

00:28:32.359 --> 00:28:34.900
a way forward. If not, I don't know what the

00:28:34.900 --> 00:28:37.700
forcing function is. I think part of the problem

00:28:37.700 --> 00:28:40.059
you probably agree is... at least in my lifetime,

00:28:40.279 --> 00:28:43.839
the news has become more of like a entertainment

00:28:43.839 --> 00:28:46.740
source. So like, you know, obviously it's become

00:28:46.740 --> 00:28:49.099
much more partisan. People watch whatever it

00:28:49.099 --> 00:28:51.440
is, Fox News or other things. And they're just,

00:28:51.519 --> 00:28:53.660
they're fed a certain view. And that is a view

00:28:53.660 --> 00:28:56.019
that gets people upset and rage. And it's entertaining

00:28:56.019 --> 00:28:58.240
in a sense. And the same is happening on our

00:28:58.240 --> 00:29:01.339
social media. You sign into things that sort

00:29:01.339 --> 00:29:03.660
of fit what you want to keep you worked up. And

00:29:03.660 --> 00:29:06.359
so I don't know how we get out of that. You know,

00:29:06.380 --> 00:29:07.619
when you and I grew up, there was, you know.

00:29:08.000 --> 00:29:09.559
three channels and they pretty much said the

00:29:09.559 --> 00:29:12.640
same thing. And it's different now. You can find

00:29:12.640 --> 00:29:15.359
your own little view of the world and that to

00:29:15.359 --> 00:29:17.200
keep the clicks going to make their money, they

00:29:17.200 --> 00:29:19.319
need to keep you angry. And I don't know how

00:29:19.319 --> 00:29:23.119
we come out of that part of it. Yeah. And people

00:29:23.119 --> 00:29:26.660
far smarter than me have dealt with this at length.

00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:29.880
I mean, I do think part of the answer is the

00:29:29.880 --> 00:29:33.349
focus on local news. I mean, when I grew up in

00:29:33.349 --> 00:29:35.730
the very northern part of New York State, we

00:29:35.730 --> 00:29:37.670
had the St. Lawrence Plain Dealer, which had

00:29:37.670 --> 00:29:41.190
a bunch of local reporters and they focused on

00:29:41.190 --> 00:29:43.730
what was going on in Canton, New York. And there

00:29:43.730 --> 00:29:46.710
was a way of holding people accountable. Well,

00:29:46.710 --> 00:29:49.329
that paper went out of business a few years ago

00:29:49.329 --> 00:29:51.410
and came back. I think they have like one reporter

00:29:51.410 --> 00:29:56.009
now. And there are interesting experiments, I

00:29:56.009 --> 00:30:00.670
think, going on. kind of public, private, nonprofit

00:30:00.670 --> 00:30:04.109
organizations that are publishing papers. Texas

00:30:04.109 --> 00:30:08.230
Tribune sort of led the way. But even ProPublica,

00:30:08.230 --> 00:30:14.789
a wonderful research effort that is in partnership

00:30:14.789 --> 00:30:20.930
with local news to try to hold local representatives

00:30:20.930 --> 00:30:25.329
accountable and trace the money and explain to

00:30:25.329 --> 00:30:28.740
people what's going on at a local level. And

00:30:28.740 --> 00:30:31.339
we do need people to get out of this sort of

00:30:31.339 --> 00:30:35.220
constant focus on what the focus is at the national

00:30:35.220 --> 00:30:38.519
level. And things do percolate up, as you said,

00:30:38.599 --> 00:30:43.819
below, from below. Long term effort. But I forget

00:30:43.819 --> 00:30:46.660
the statistics, but the numbers of newspapers

00:30:46.660 --> 00:30:49.920
that are going out of business every year, astronomical.

00:30:50.759 --> 00:30:53.319
Yeah, that's part of the civic education thing.

00:30:53.420 --> 00:30:56.099
I knew I liked you, but the upstate New York

00:30:56.099 --> 00:30:59.180
makes it even. Clear to me. I'm from upstate

00:30:59.180 --> 00:31:01.779
New York as well. My father's from up near there.

00:31:01.819 --> 00:31:03.400
He's from Governor, which is up near. Really?

00:31:03.480 --> 00:31:07.819
Went to school in Potsdam. I grew up in Cortland,

00:31:07.900 --> 00:31:11.339
Finger Lakes region, so there quite a bit. So

00:31:11.339 --> 00:31:12.420
listen, you've been generous with your time.

00:31:12.480 --> 00:31:13.819
I don't want to keep you too long, but let me

00:31:13.819 --> 00:31:16.500
pull you back to sort of your experience in the

00:31:16.500 --> 00:31:19.079
intelligence community a little bit. Like, well,

00:31:19.099 --> 00:31:20.579
the intelligence community now is dealing with

00:31:20.579 --> 00:31:22.140
a variety, you know, it's dealing with these

00:31:22.140 --> 00:31:24.079
partisan issues that are pushing down on them.

00:31:24.119 --> 00:31:26.579
We've seen that through. DNI and other places,

00:31:26.599 --> 00:31:28.440
but they're also dealing with real serious problems

00:31:28.440 --> 00:31:32.140
with AI, ubiquitous commercial data, encrypted

00:31:32.140 --> 00:31:35.680
platforms. You know, I worked overseas trying

00:31:35.680 --> 00:31:37.599
to, you know, run spies. Nowadays, you know,

00:31:37.599 --> 00:31:41.359
the number of cameras, the ability of big data

00:31:41.359 --> 00:31:45.339
to track at what everybody's doing. Open source

00:31:45.339 --> 00:31:47.740
intelligence is both a challenge and a good thing

00:31:47.740 --> 00:31:49.200
for probably for the intelligence community,

00:31:49.339 --> 00:31:51.859
but the enormous scale of these things. What

00:31:51.859 --> 00:31:55.670
does a new intelligence revolution? look like?

00:31:55.690 --> 00:31:57.450
Are we just dealing with the same kind of thing,

00:31:57.490 --> 00:32:00.269
but just faster? Or is there something new that

00:32:00.269 --> 00:32:02.170
the intelligence community has to get its hands

00:32:02.170 --> 00:32:07.410
around? You know, when I was the acting director

00:32:07.410 --> 00:32:11.309
of NCTC, I was very much of the view that machine

00:32:11.309 --> 00:32:14.349
learning and artificial intelligence were an

00:32:14.349 --> 00:32:17.109
imperative, not a nice to have, because the amount

00:32:17.109 --> 00:32:21.289
of information that comes in is just, it was

00:32:21.289 --> 00:32:26.849
just growing logarithmically. That said, I have

00:32:26.849 --> 00:32:31.589
tremendous concerns right now about what data

00:32:31.589 --> 00:32:34.970
we're bringing in and how we're using it. When

00:32:34.970 --> 00:32:38.309
we started teaching NCTC 20 years ago, there

00:32:38.309 --> 00:32:40.509
was something called total information awareness.

00:32:40.670 --> 00:32:43.130
It was being pushed by a guy named John Poindexter,

00:32:43.190 --> 00:32:46.190
who was with DARPA. And he was making the argument

00:32:46.190 --> 00:32:48.970
that you need a really big haystack so you can

00:32:48.970 --> 00:32:52.390
find the next terrorist. Well, his haystack envisioned

00:32:52.390 --> 00:32:55.420
things like... U .S. person's medical records.

00:32:55.660 --> 00:32:58.980
And it was just completely beyond the pale. And

00:32:58.980 --> 00:33:02.079
across the political spectrum, he got panned

00:33:02.079 --> 00:33:05.259
and Tia was killed. Well, if you were to go in

00:33:05.259 --> 00:33:10.640
right now and ask Claude or Chad GPT, what are

00:33:10.640 --> 00:33:14.500
the potential invasions of privacy now compared

00:33:14.500 --> 00:33:20.559
to Tia? It's night and day. I mean, we are...

00:33:20.970 --> 00:33:23.609
We are surrendering our privacy. And if that's

00:33:23.609 --> 00:33:26.849
what Americans want to do, that's fine. From

00:33:26.849 --> 00:33:30.069
an Intel community perspective, I think we need

00:33:30.069 --> 00:33:34.769
to take a really hard look at 3333. I worry that

00:33:34.769 --> 00:33:38.410
the Intel community under the rubric of open

00:33:38.410 --> 00:33:42.450
source could be bringing in collateral telemetry

00:33:42.450 --> 00:33:48.369
data and ad tech data, which frankly is far more

00:33:48.369 --> 00:33:55.190
revelatory than FISA. ever will be and um it

00:33:55.190 --> 00:33:57.930
is this what you want our community to do i mean

00:33:57.930 --> 00:34:00.609
this is u .s person's data coming into the intel

00:34:00.609 --> 00:34:04.750
community because it's collected by a contractor

00:34:04.750 --> 00:34:07.809
and sold to the government and this is what you're

00:34:07.809 --> 00:34:13.409
seeing now with um maven and raven and the different

00:34:13.409 --> 00:34:18.750
efforts part of DOD and DHS to do targeting overseas.

00:34:18.969 --> 00:34:22.469
That's one thing. To track down people in the

00:34:22.469 --> 00:34:26.730
United States. Maybe that's another. Just really

00:34:26.730 --> 00:34:29.489
hard questions as we've seen the blurring of

00:34:29.489 --> 00:34:32.750
foreign and domestic. And for people like you

00:34:32.750 --> 00:34:35.449
and me that grew up as foreign intelligence officers,

00:34:35.630 --> 00:34:39.090
we need to be really careful about what we do.

00:34:39.329 --> 00:34:43.389
And I wish that the policy, legal, privacy, operational,

00:34:43.409 --> 00:34:46.809
technical equities. were being weighed by the

00:34:46.809 --> 00:34:50.610
Congress far more statistically than they are.

00:34:51.610 --> 00:34:54.530
I can see why there has always been a problem

00:34:54.530 --> 00:34:56.789
with just the sheer amount of data and not as

00:34:56.789 --> 00:34:59.489
many analysts to look at that. And so I can see

00:34:59.489 --> 00:35:02.030
nowadays the speed of AI and stuff, the stuff

00:35:02.030 --> 00:35:04.429
that's, say, collected by NSA. So they're collecting

00:35:04.429 --> 00:35:07.389
more information every day than any human could

00:35:07.389 --> 00:35:10.469
ever look at or any hundreds or thousands of

00:35:10.469 --> 00:35:12.469
humans could ever look at. And I can see if you're

00:35:12.469 --> 00:35:15.210
a customer, you're in the... general you're out

00:35:15.210 --> 00:35:17.530
in the field, there's a quicker way for you,

00:35:17.570 --> 00:35:19.269
for the system and not to say, you need this

00:35:19.269 --> 00:35:22.389
information to operate on. And from my time and

00:35:22.389 --> 00:35:23.929
your time too, there's always been customers,

00:35:24.030 --> 00:35:26.949
meaning policymakers or others that want to be

00:35:26.949 --> 00:35:28.469
their own analyst, right? And so they're like,

00:35:28.510 --> 00:35:30.949
cut out the analytic part, just give me the raw

00:35:30.949 --> 00:35:32.769
data and I'll make decisions based on it. And

00:35:32.769 --> 00:35:34.750
I worry a little bit about this is the speed

00:35:34.750 --> 00:35:36.510
is good. Like, so all that NSA material that

00:35:36.510 --> 00:35:39.190
just sits there and nobody can see, users can

00:35:39.190 --> 00:35:41.570
now see that and act on it, but there's not anything

00:35:41.570 --> 00:35:44.179
in between that's saying. hey, this actually

00:35:44.179 --> 00:35:46.900
doesn't fit with what we're seeing in other places,

00:35:46.940 --> 00:35:51.739
or there's a problem with this data set, or these

00:35:51.739 --> 00:35:53.000
people that are putting out this information,

00:35:53.199 --> 00:35:55.179
some of them are giving disinformation for their

00:35:55.179 --> 00:35:57.800
own domestic reasons to go after people you're

00:35:57.800 --> 00:36:01.980
operating on. So the analytic cadre, who is usually

00:36:01.980 --> 00:36:05.760
that place in between collection and giving it

00:36:05.760 --> 00:36:10.079
to policymakers, they worry that the policymakers

00:36:10.079 --> 00:36:12.650
are going to want to say, stop, stop. analyzing

00:36:12.650 --> 00:36:15.710
stuff, let me make my own decisions. Well, I

00:36:15.710 --> 00:36:18.449
mean, I think you've basically seen that with

00:36:18.449 --> 00:36:20.489
the president of the United States, who has talked

00:36:20.489 --> 00:36:23.050
about taking the intel community to school because

00:36:23.050 --> 00:36:26.489
he did not agree with the conclusions that the

00:36:26.489 --> 00:36:29.550
community was providing in the first administration.

00:36:30.070 --> 00:36:33.210
And then in the second administration, he goes

00:36:33.210 --> 00:36:38.539
or Tulsi Grabber goes so far as to fire. senior

00:36:38.539 --> 00:36:40.539
analytic types who were providing information

00:36:40.539 --> 00:36:43.739
that were out of step with his views on Venezuela.

00:36:44.480 --> 00:36:51.019
So your point is very well taken. So again, Russ,

00:36:51.119 --> 00:36:53.340
so glad to have you. You've been generous with

00:36:53.340 --> 00:36:57.099
your time. We may want to have you on. I would

00:36:57.099 --> 00:36:59.280
encourage people to read the book. Can you tell

00:36:59.280 --> 00:37:01.320
us a little bit about what you're working on

00:37:01.320 --> 00:37:04.949
now and when the book might be coming out? So

00:37:04.949 --> 00:37:06.150
I actually thought the book was going to be out

00:37:06.150 --> 00:37:08.090
this week. I got the final proofs yesterday.

00:37:08.510 --> 00:37:11.010
It'll probably be available either next week

00:37:11.010 --> 00:37:17.610
or the week after. So for me, the book is it's

00:37:17.610 --> 00:37:20.530
kind of an anchor for the ideas. I mean, lots

00:37:20.530 --> 00:37:23.550
of people disagree. I would just hope that we

00:37:23.550 --> 00:37:26.309
could have an adult conversation about what do

00:37:26.309 --> 00:37:28.710
we want out of our democracy and how are we going

00:37:28.710 --> 00:37:32.579
to get there? Like forever in this country, reasonable

00:37:32.579 --> 00:37:35.300
people will differ and will argue. We're just

00:37:35.300 --> 00:37:38.719
not having that conversation right now. These

00:37:38.719 --> 00:37:40.400
are important issues and thank you for bringing

00:37:40.400 --> 00:37:42.739
them up with us. And I encourage people to follow

00:37:42.739 --> 00:37:44.539
your writing and read the book when it comes

00:37:44.539 --> 00:37:47.099
out. So for our listeners, thank you very much.

00:37:47.179 --> 00:37:48.599
If you like what you're hearing, please subscribe

00:37:48.599 --> 00:37:50.820
to the Steady State Sentinel and follow other

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Steady State content. And if you can give us

00:37:53.019 --> 00:37:54.880
a review on Google, that would be really helpful.

00:37:54.980 --> 00:37:58.309
So again. Thank you. Stay informed and keep following

00:37:58.309 --> 00:38:00.230
the SteadyState Sentinel. This is John Seifer.

00:38:03.010 --> 00:38:05.949
Thank you for listening to the SteadyState Sentinel

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