WEBVTT - created with AI 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:03.299 Something is changing in our country, and most 00:00:03.299 --> 00:00:11.619 people feel it before they can explain it. Hello, 00:00:11.759 --> 00:00:13.599 you're listening to the Steady State Sentinel 00:00:13.599 --> 00:00:16.719 from the Steady State. I'm Jim Lawler, a former 00:00:16.719 --> 00:00:20.140 senior CIA operations officer, and I've worked 00:00:20.140 --> 00:00:22.039 on some of the most sensitive counterproliferation 00:00:22.039 --> 00:00:25.219 and espionage cases in recent history. Today, 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:28.620 we're talking with Seth Hatena. Seth is an investigative 00:00:28.620 --> 00:00:32.009 journalist. an author who has spent decades covering 00:00:32.009 --> 00:00:35.090 national security, organized crime, and the intersection 00:00:35.090 --> 00:00:38.450 of politics and power. He's the author of Trump, 00:00:38.649 --> 00:00:42.829 Russia, a definitive history, a longtime AP correspondent, 00:00:43.009 --> 00:00:45.250 and he's currently working on a book about a 00:00:45.250 --> 00:00:49.369 Navy SEAL platoon set up to take the fall for 00:00:49.369 --> 00:00:53.090 a CIA torture death in Iraq. He writes the Substack 00:00:53.090 --> 00:00:57.289 newsletter, The Iceman, which I read religiously. 00:00:57.450 --> 00:01:00.549 And so I'm very interested in chatting with Seth 00:01:00.549 --> 00:01:02.630 today. Welcome to the Steady State Sentinel, 00:01:02.750 --> 00:01:06.250 Seth. Hey, Jim. Thanks for having me on. Absolutely. 00:01:06.310 --> 00:01:09.409 So, of course, everybody is thinking about Operation 00:01:09.409 --> 00:01:13.799 Epic Fury, the U .S. strikes on Iran. Everybody 00:01:13.799 --> 00:01:16.359 saw it coming. It was basically telegraphed by 00:01:16.359 --> 00:01:18.519 the president and all of his senior advisors. 00:01:19.459 --> 00:01:24.040 Is that type of strategic signaling or is something 00:01:24.040 --> 00:01:27.640 else going on? What's your opinion on that? I 00:01:27.640 --> 00:01:31.019 mean, the communication about this has been shambolic. 00:01:31.079 --> 00:01:39.120 It's an embarrassment how poor it's been. I think 00:01:39.120 --> 00:01:41.439 you need to hold two thoughts in your head about 00:01:41.439 --> 00:01:45.260 Iran. I mean, you know, Iran has been a global 00:01:45.260 --> 00:01:49.420 menace for, you know, almost 50 years. And, you 00:01:49.420 --> 00:01:56.879 know, Iran has blown up our embassies and marine 00:01:56.879 --> 00:02:01.319 base in Iraq. It's contributed to the IEDs in, 00:02:01.319 --> 00:02:08.199 I'm sorry, not Iraq, in Beirut, excuse me. It 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:11.599 helped build IEDs that killed American soldiers. 00:02:11.800 --> 00:02:14.460 I mean, it's been waging a campaign of war and 00:02:14.460 --> 00:02:20.439 terror against us for 50 years. Changing that 00:02:20.439 --> 00:02:23.259 regime or reforming that place would be a worthy 00:02:23.259 --> 00:02:26.319 goal, but I have no confidence that Trump and 00:02:26.319 --> 00:02:29.659 his people are at all capable of doing that. 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:34.439 You know, you listen to Pete Hegseth for 30 seconds 00:02:34.439 --> 00:02:36.840 and it's clear this is a guy who has no idea 00:02:36.840 --> 00:02:42.120 who shouldn't be where he is. So, you know, the 00:02:42.120 --> 00:02:45.900 communication is a symptom of that, that we don't 00:02:45.900 --> 00:02:47.659 know what the objective of the war is. Trump 00:02:47.659 --> 00:02:50.759 has given aims that conflict with his own team. 00:02:51.759 --> 00:02:54.740 And, you know, he's done this like an authoritarian. 00:03:00.680 --> 00:03:02.780 thought really given to the consequences that 00:03:02.780 --> 00:03:05.240 we're now seeing. Absolutely. In fact, I think 00:03:05.240 --> 00:03:08.560 I've heard at least six or more supposed actual 00:03:08.560 --> 00:03:12.259 objectives here for those four. I mean, first 00:03:12.259 --> 00:03:14.560 we talked about, well, the nuclear weapons threat, 00:03:14.659 --> 00:03:17.199 although supposedly they had obliterated that 00:03:17.199 --> 00:03:20.840 last summer. Then we talk about the possible 00:03:20.840 --> 00:03:23.400 regime change, let's say the Iranian people. 00:03:23.840 --> 00:03:26.580 Then we talk about the terrorism conducted against 00:03:26.580 --> 00:03:29.979 Americans and our allies all over the world. 00:03:30.039 --> 00:03:33.060 And all of these are laudable goals, but I don't 00:03:33.060 --> 00:03:35.659 think we have any one of these pinned down as 00:03:35.659 --> 00:03:38.840 the real objective here. And if it is, if these 00:03:38.840 --> 00:03:41.280 are the objectives, my question is, are these 00:03:41.280 --> 00:03:45.639 achievable objectives? Well, yeah, I mean, regime 00:03:45.639 --> 00:03:51.050 change. You know, I know what I've read, and 00:03:51.050 --> 00:03:53.669 I know what I've observed from watching history 00:03:53.669 --> 00:03:57.909 for years. We've dropped bombs on multiple countries 00:03:57.909 --> 00:04:01.430 throughout our history in the hopes of changing 00:04:01.430 --> 00:04:05.689 regimes, and it really has never worked. It didn't 00:04:05.689 --> 00:04:10.949 work in Vietnam. It didn't work in the Balkans. 00:04:11.550 --> 00:04:14.169 You know, it didn't work the first time around 00:04:14.169 --> 00:04:20.420 in Iraq. But somehow we keep falling for this 00:04:20.420 --> 00:04:23.339 fallacy that just we can change a regime from 00:04:23.339 --> 00:04:26.420 the air. What I think changes regimes and what 00:04:26.420 --> 00:04:29.660 history shows is that regimes fall when insiders 00:04:29.660 --> 00:04:35.259 defect. That's otherwise it's a, you know, otherwise 00:04:35.259 --> 00:04:38.459 it just kind of hunkers down. And in some ways 00:04:38.459 --> 00:04:40.939 it can be counterproductive because now instead 00:04:40.939 --> 00:04:43.720 of the enemy being the regime itself for the 00:04:43.720 --> 00:04:48.180 people. And now we're inflicting all kinds of 00:04:48.180 --> 00:04:52.579 suffering on them by bombing their gasoline supplies. 00:04:52.839 --> 00:04:57.139 And I even saw there's an attack on a water desalination 00:04:57.139 --> 00:05:02.969 plant. So we're causing major disruption. That 00:05:02.969 --> 00:05:07.250 may actually help the regime in the end. I agree 00:05:07.250 --> 00:05:09.949 with you. In fact, that attack on the desalination 00:05:09.949 --> 00:05:14.069 plant, I know even a few months ago, the mayor 00:05:14.069 --> 00:05:15.490 of Tehran was saying, we're going to have to 00:05:15.490 --> 00:05:17.870 ration water. And that was long before this conflict 00:05:17.870 --> 00:05:20.810 started. So we're exacerbating their water shortages 00:05:20.810 --> 00:05:23.389 there. And of course, I'm sure the regime, the 00:05:23.389 --> 00:05:27.050 IRGC, the Basij, people in the Supreme Council, 00:05:27.250 --> 00:05:29.189 all of these, the Council of Experts, they've 00:05:29.189 --> 00:05:30.870 all got plenty of water, plenty of everything 00:05:30.870 --> 00:05:35.990 else. In all your talks with military and intelligence 00:05:35.990 --> 00:05:39.110 officers in recent weeks, has anybody said that 00:05:39.110 --> 00:05:41.329 they're seeing cracks in the regime? You know, 00:05:41.370 --> 00:05:44.449 you mentioned that a regime might fall once people 00:05:44.449 --> 00:05:46.949 start to defect, but are we seeing any of that? 00:05:47.430 --> 00:05:52.250 I haven't heard anything like that. And, you 00:05:52.250 --> 00:05:56.129 know, that's another problem is the loss of expertise 00:05:56.129 --> 00:05:59.459 here is that, you know, are there... people in 00:05:59.459 --> 00:06:03.480 government now who would know could recognize 00:06:03.480 --> 00:06:06.139 that there are cracks in the regime people who 00:06:06.139 --> 00:06:10.779 studied the you know the the the the theocracy 00:06:10.779 --> 00:06:13.600 there and know how it works and know how to detect 00:06:13.600 --> 00:06:15.879 the you know the slightest rumblings and can 00:06:15.879 --> 00:06:18.560 read it i you know that's a question for you 00:06:18.560 --> 00:06:21.319 really is there's been a tremendous loss of expertise 00:06:21.319 --> 00:06:24.139 and and you know i'm wondering if we even know 00:06:24.139 --> 00:06:27.060 how to read the signals anymore yeah i know one 00:06:27.060 --> 00:06:31.060 of my dear uh friends, Lauren Anderson, who's 00:06:31.060 --> 00:06:34.680 a former senior FBI special agent. She's very 00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:37.240 concerned about the counterintelligence and national 00:06:37.240 --> 00:06:40.800 security ramifications domestically, especially 00:06:40.800 --> 00:06:43.480 right now when the director, Kash Patel, has 00:06:43.480 --> 00:06:46.600 been firing so many very talented and very experienced 00:06:46.600 --> 00:06:49.660 FBI agents. And I can't help but think that this 00:06:49.660 --> 00:06:51.920 is making us much more vulnerable to perhaps 00:06:51.920 --> 00:06:56.379 a very spectacular act of terrorism. Yeah, I 00:06:56.379 --> 00:06:58.279 mean, that's a huge concern. You know, I was 00:06:58.279 --> 00:07:02.560 talking to a former SEAL officer who said, you 00:07:02.560 --> 00:07:06.120 know, I live in San Diego. Miramar Air Station 00:07:06.120 --> 00:07:08.100 is right here. It's where Top Gun used to be. 00:07:08.180 --> 00:07:13.019 It's a military, now it's a Marine base. And, 00:07:13.160 --> 00:07:15.339 you know, he was asking, well, why isn't somebody 00:07:15.339 --> 00:07:20.279 just set up on, you know, you can almost access 00:07:20.279 --> 00:07:24.079 the base. very close by and their targets right 00:07:24.079 --> 00:07:26.980 there. You know, we are very vulnerable to an 00:07:26.980 --> 00:07:33.319 insider attack like that. And yeah, it's a very 00:07:33.319 --> 00:07:36.060 dangerous situation. And, you know, to come back 00:07:36.060 --> 00:07:40.240 just to that desalination issue, if we're blowing 00:07:40.240 --> 00:07:43.879 up their desalination plants, you know, Saudi 00:07:43.879 --> 00:07:47.240 Arabia. as far as I know, runs on desalinated 00:07:47.240 --> 00:07:49.399 water. I think other countries there do too. 00:07:49.519 --> 00:07:53.160 So is that now a fair target for Iranian drones? 00:07:53.860 --> 00:07:56.660 Is that where we're headed here? I mean, we're 00:07:56.660 --> 00:08:00.699 looking at a really combustible situation there. 00:08:01.639 --> 00:08:04.560 So getting back to, say, domestic terrorism, 00:08:04.800 --> 00:08:07.920 I was shocked a couple of days ago when I read 00:08:07.920 --> 00:08:12.439 that the White House had stopped a Department 00:08:12.439 --> 00:08:16.160 of Homeland Security bulletin out to police forces 00:08:16.160 --> 00:08:19.600 and things about the increased chance of terrorism. 00:08:19.600 --> 00:08:21.759 And supposedly the White House said, no, we're 00:08:21.759 --> 00:08:23.259 not going to put this out. And I thought, wait 00:08:23.259 --> 00:08:26.879 a moment. You're saying that we're not in a state 00:08:26.879 --> 00:08:31.259 of alert here? That really bothered me. Yeah, 00:08:31.259 --> 00:08:33.799 I mean, as it should. I mean, this is the problem 00:08:33.799 --> 00:08:38.379 with Trump is that everything is about his ego 00:08:38.379 --> 00:08:42.320 and becomes a personal insult to him. I mean, 00:08:42.340 --> 00:08:45.039 this reminds me of the early days of COVID when 00:08:45.039 --> 00:08:48.080 he wouldn't let a ship with, remember, with sick 00:08:48.080 --> 00:08:51.080 passengers land because it would make his numbers 00:08:51.080 --> 00:08:55.100 look bad, you know? So, yeah, he's concerned. 00:08:55.500 --> 00:09:00.000 Look, he's a showman. He's managing this. He's 00:09:00.000 --> 00:09:02.820 managing for everything for appearances. Everything 00:09:02.820 --> 00:09:05.659 is being run. And this really bothers me. Everything 00:09:05.659 --> 00:09:08.519 is being run for social media, including our 00:09:08.519 --> 00:09:11.879 military attacks are being produced as little. 00:09:12.659 --> 00:09:14.740 I don't know if you've seen this little snippets 00:09:14.740 --> 00:09:20.100 of war porn of bombing and rock music. And, you 00:09:20.100 --> 00:09:22.759 know, we proudly show off the boats we're blowing 00:09:22.759 --> 00:09:25.539 up in the Caribbean. And it's and it's just, 00:09:25.559 --> 00:09:27.940 you know, it's all a stage managed show. But, 00:09:27.980 --> 00:09:31.080 you know, we are. Well, we crossed a major bridge 00:09:31.080 --> 00:09:35.679 when we attacked Iran and, you know, yeah. You 00:09:35.679 --> 00:09:39.220 talk to a lot of either current or former military 00:09:39.220 --> 00:09:41.960 officers and intelligence officers. What's their 00:09:41.960 --> 00:09:44.220 general feeling about this? Is anybody saying, 00:09:44.279 --> 00:09:46.720 gung -ho, let's go in, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran? 00:09:47.419 --> 00:09:51.740 What's the feeling among our men and women in 00:09:51.740 --> 00:09:55.620 uniform? I think it's great apprehension. I think 00:09:55.620 --> 00:09:57.440 there's nobody in the intelligence community 00:09:57.440 --> 00:10:02.480 who's... who's pro -Iran. Iran is a regime everybody 00:10:02.480 --> 00:10:07.679 wanted to see gone for a long time. But it's 00:10:07.679 --> 00:10:16.440 the process that is gone now. I'm not even sure 00:10:16.440 --> 00:10:20.000 we have a National Security Council at this point 00:10:20.000 --> 00:10:26.460 who's advising on actions. There's just a great 00:10:26.460 --> 00:10:30.669 big... question mark and apprehension about where 00:10:30.669 --> 00:10:34.590 we are and where we're heading now. Trump, from 00:10:34.590 --> 00:10:37.669 my view, seems to be a victim of his own success. 00:10:38.450 --> 00:10:45.169 To his credit, he attacked Iran's nuclear sites 00:10:45.169 --> 00:10:49.250 in June, I think it was. And this is something 00:10:49.250 --> 00:10:52.850 I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on. For 00:10:52.850 --> 00:10:55.190 years, the national security community was saying, 00:10:55.269 --> 00:10:59.169 we can't do that. We'll risk World War III. And 00:10:59.169 --> 00:11:04.970 we did it. And it seemed to be a victory, a proof 00:11:04.970 --> 00:11:06.889 that Trump, at least in that case, was right. 00:11:07.029 --> 00:11:13.870 And he managed to release the hostages from Gaza. 00:11:15.950 --> 00:11:18.190 pulled off a stunning raid in Venezuela, and 00:11:18.190 --> 00:11:21.090 I just think he's become convinced that he can 00:11:21.090 --> 00:11:24.230 do no wrong at this point. And so we're in a 00:11:24.230 --> 00:11:28.309 bad place here. Okay, Seth, if you had a crystal 00:11:28.309 --> 00:11:30.590 ball and you were able to look into it, how would 00:11:30.590 --> 00:11:32.549 you predict that this conflict in the Middle 00:11:32.549 --> 00:11:35.789 East ends? And what's your time frame, your best 00:11:35.789 --> 00:11:40.570 estimate? I mean, this is Trump, so prediction 00:11:40.570 --> 00:11:44.820 is a very dangerous business with him. because 00:11:44.820 --> 00:11:49.080 he consistently defies predictions. But I suspect 00:11:49.080 --> 00:11:54.100 I could ask him the same question. That is part 00:11:54.100 --> 00:11:56.080 of the problem is that nobody knows. But I wouldn't 00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:59.080 be surprised, you know, if we continue on this 00:11:59.080 --> 00:12:02.159 track with he's very sensitive to economic pressures. 00:12:02.500 --> 00:12:05.919 If oil prices, oil prices are very close to 100. 00:12:06.100 --> 00:12:08.220 I think they spiked well above it. I think they 00:12:08.220 --> 00:12:12.620 dropped down. Gas prices are a real barometer 00:12:12.620 --> 00:12:17.269 of You know, strangely, gas prices are really 00:12:17.269 --> 00:12:20.129 associated with presidential popularity. And 00:12:20.129 --> 00:12:22.990 if both of those are climbing, I wouldn't be 00:12:22.990 --> 00:12:25.429 surprised to see Trump in a week or so just say 00:12:25.429 --> 00:12:27.490 we declare victory and walk away and leave this 00:12:27.490 --> 00:12:31.350 mess to the Iranian people. I just I don't think 00:12:31.350 --> 00:12:34.090 he's a serious. There's any serious thought here. 00:12:34.149 --> 00:12:37.250 I think he's being run on vibes at the same time. 00:12:38.120 --> 00:12:40.980 Iran could get lucky. Its drones could get through 00:12:40.980 --> 00:12:44.720 and it could make this a more broader conflict. 00:12:44.840 --> 00:12:47.399 It could hit Saudi desalination site. I mean, 00:12:47.419 --> 00:12:52.159 you know, we've just taken the whole strategic 00:12:52.159 --> 00:12:54.299 playing board and thrown it up in the air here. 00:12:57.440 --> 00:12:59.879 extrapolate and look at broader national security 00:12:59.879 --> 00:13:02.299 issues, what do you think our current national 00:13:02.299 --> 00:13:04.980 security posture looks like today and how it's 00:13:04.980 --> 00:13:07.840 different from, say, a year or two years ago? 00:13:08.059 --> 00:13:11.019 Any thoughts on that? Yeah, I mean, I have thought 00:13:11.019 --> 00:13:14.139 about that. I mean, I think the major difference 00:13:14.139 --> 00:13:19.139 is that there's a lack of process, that decisions 00:13:19.139 --> 00:13:23.440 are, you know, decisions for the presidency used 00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:26.830 to be kind of shaped and focused by the national 00:13:26.830 --> 00:13:31.950 security community, by the NSC, by advisors. 00:13:33.190 --> 00:13:35.309 I'm not sure how Trump is getting his information 00:13:35.309 --> 00:13:41.750 anymore. And the NSC process, maybe it wasn't 00:13:41.750 --> 00:13:46.049 perfect, but a process can be fixed. If your 00:13:46.049 --> 00:13:49.149 intelligence judgments are wrong, you can put 00:13:49.149 --> 00:13:52.230 in a process to correct those. But how do you 00:13:52.230 --> 00:13:54.809 correct a process where Trump is just kind of 00:13:54.809 --> 00:13:59.129 deciding, like a king, to invade? And that's 00:13:59.129 --> 00:14:02.750 the biggest difference I see, is that this is 00:14:02.750 --> 00:14:08.789 an authoritarian move here. And there is no process. 00:14:08.889 --> 00:14:12.789 There's no real thought being given to consequences. 00:14:13.809 --> 00:14:16.429 You know, the fact that they're evacuating people 00:14:16.429 --> 00:14:18.669 after the war begins, I mean, isn't that something 00:14:18.669 --> 00:14:23.059 you do before? It just seems everything is kind 00:14:23.059 --> 00:14:26.120 of, there just seems to be a lack of thought 00:14:26.120 --> 00:14:29.799 and a lot of focus. And again, to come back to 00:14:29.799 --> 00:14:33.000 that very simple thing they could do of communicate 00:14:33.000 --> 00:14:36.120 the objectives, if they can't even do that, which 00:14:36.120 --> 00:14:40.320 is, I mean, even an idiot like me could do that. 00:14:40.600 --> 00:14:44.500 You could stick to a coherent objective. And 00:14:44.500 --> 00:14:45.899 if you can't do that, then you're going to get 00:14:45.899 --> 00:14:48.899 a lot of other things wrong. I mean, for me, 00:14:48.919 --> 00:14:51.659 the significant question is, how does this end 00:14:51.659 --> 00:14:56.940 and win? And like you and like probably 99 .9 00:14:56.940 --> 00:15:00.340 % of Americans, I shed no tears at the death 00:15:00.340 --> 00:15:04.379 of Khamenei or any of his thugs, you know, in 00:15:04.379 --> 00:15:07.759 the Majlis or in the IRGC or in the Basij. These 00:15:07.759 --> 00:15:11.500 people are human scum. But I mean, you could 00:15:11.500 --> 00:15:13.360 have said the same thing about Saddam Hussein 00:15:13.360 --> 00:15:18.419 and his Baathist thugs. But I'm not so convinced 00:15:18.419 --> 00:15:20.639 that this is the smartest thing to do. I'm not 00:15:20.639 --> 00:15:24.440 going to take any pot shots at our brave men 00:15:24.440 --> 00:15:26.220 and women who are putting their lives on the 00:15:26.220 --> 00:15:30.960 line overseas right now, doing their best for 00:15:30.960 --> 00:15:34.299 America, for our allies. But it troubles me greatly. 00:15:34.399 --> 00:15:39.240 I don't see any real coherency to these national 00:15:39.240 --> 00:15:43.539 security postures. I mean, what would you do 00:15:43.539 --> 00:15:46.240 if you were in charge, Seth? Let's say we elect 00:15:46.240 --> 00:15:49.799 you king. What would you do differently to strengthen 00:15:49.799 --> 00:15:52.679 our national security and also protect our civil 00:15:52.679 --> 00:15:58.600 liberty and democracy? Oh, boy. I mean, well, 00:15:58.759 --> 00:16:01.419 you know, I think recognizing your limit, you 00:16:01.419 --> 00:16:03.679 know, the line I always love to quote is from 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:06.519 Clint Eastwood, which is a man's got to know 00:16:06.519 --> 00:16:09.120 his limitations. You know, I know what I know 00:16:09.120 --> 00:16:11.919 enough to know that I don't know enough. And 00:16:11.919 --> 00:16:15.240 so in some way, you know, that means I would 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:19.620 have to rely on advice and consent and discussions 00:16:19.620 --> 00:16:23.919 and competing opinions. So, you know, I would 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:27.779 reinstitute a process to get experts back in, 00:16:27.860 --> 00:16:30.860 to get planners back in, to have people talking 00:16:30.860 --> 00:16:35.580 again, to beg and plead our experts who we've 00:16:35.580 --> 00:16:39.980 lost to please come back and hopefully peace 00:16:39.980 --> 00:16:44.350 back. this broken puzzle here. But that's something 00:16:44.350 --> 00:16:48.289 that also worries me. I'm jumping ahead here. 00:16:48.830 --> 00:16:53.070 But in four years, let's just say hypothetically, 00:16:53.210 --> 00:16:56.649 we do have a sane Democrat or a sane Republican, 00:16:56.850 --> 00:17:01.590 let's say a sane Democrat elected. How do you 00:17:01.590 --> 00:17:05.049 clean up this mess? Because anything you do is 00:17:05.049 --> 00:17:07.329 going to be perceived in our hyper -partisan 00:17:07.329 --> 00:17:10.970 lens as... You know, bringing back the deep state. 00:17:11.349 --> 00:17:14.029 So, you know, I don't know how you get out of 00:17:14.029 --> 00:17:21.269 this, where we are now. I mean, one of my questions 00:17:21.269 --> 00:17:25.289 is, will any good come out of this for America, 00:17:25.490 --> 00:17:28.690 for Iran, or for our allies? And I don't know. 00:17:28.750 --> 00:17:31.490 I mean, I would hope so. I'm normally an optimist. 00:17:31.509 --> 00:17:34.430 I like to say the glass is half full. But I'm 00:17:34.430 --> 00:17:39.359 getting awfully thirsty here. And I really am 00:17:39.359 --> 00:17:41.619 starting to have some severe doubts. I'm glad 00:17:41.619 --> 00:17:45.460 our son was a Marine Corps infantryman in Iraq 00:17:45.460 --> 00:17:48.599 for a year, and I'm glad he's no longer in the 00:17:48.599 --> 00:17:52.920 Marines, but it troubles me a lot. Yeah, you 00:17:52.920 --> 00:17:57.740 know, we've broken the trust. I mean, this is 00:17:57.740 --> 00:18:01.900 something I kind of am very sensitive to, is 00:18:01.900 --> 00:18:05.900 that, you know, what we did in Iraq. especially, 00:18:06.019 --> 00:18:08.900 and to Afghanistan as well, but really Iraq, 00:18:09.180 --> 00:18:14.660 really broke a generation of patriotic Americans 00:18:14.660 --> 00:18:18.900 who were serving in the military to do good in 00:18:18.900 --> 00:18:22.720 the world, who believed that America was a force 00:18:22.720 --> 00:18:25.680 for good. You know, I've talked to many, many 00:18:25.680 --> 00:18:30.599 people who are still patriots, you know, but 00:18:30.599 --> 00:18:34.359 that destroyed faith in government for a generation. 00:18:35.230 --> 00:18:39.130 And I wonder whether we would have Trump as president 00:18:39.130 --> 00:18:44.150 today if that faith had not been so badly broken. 00:18:45.609 --> 00:18:49.950 It's not the only factor. There's many. But that's 00:18:49.950 --> 00:18:56.470 something I think about a lot. And that even 00:18:56.470 --> 00:18:59.430 makes this more amazing that Trump did this because 00:18:59.430 --> 00:19:03.809 he knows how his base feels about foreign conflicts. 00:19:04.589 --> 00:19:07.630 And to just jump in here like this is real insanity. 00:19:08.589 --> 00:19:12.210 Yeah. Do you think that's going to affect the 00:19:12.210 --> 00:19:16.509 November elections? Yeah, I do. I do. I don't 00:19:16.509 --> 00:19:19.650 see how it can't at this point. I think we've 00:19:19.650 --> 00:19:21.869 kind of unleashed some global forces here that 00:19:21.869 --> 00:19:24.589 are going to take some time to work through the 00:19:24.589 --> 00:19:26.509 economic system. Even if we pull out in a week, 00:19:27.349 --> 00:19:32.410 you know, we have countries are right now shutting 00:19:32.410 --> 00:19:37.130 down oil production. I think Kuwait has, and 00:19:37.130 --> 00:19:41.650 I think some other countries have, the Straits 00:19:41.650 --> 00:19:44.170 of Hormuz, the nightmare scenario that everybody's 00:19:44.170 --> 00:19:47.789 been fearing for years will be shut down, as 00:19:47.789 --> 00:19:52.609 happened. And if you look at oil shocks, I mean, 00:19:52.630 --> 00:19:56.529 they are extremely disruptive. I'm sure you remember 00:19:56.529 --> 00:20:01.200 the gas lines. From the 70s and what that did 00:20:01.200 --> 00:20:04.400 to America and how unstable things here were 00:20:04.400 --> 00:20:11.559 for years as a result. So we may be reaping the 00:20:11.559 --> 00:20:15.359 whirlwind here. And the longer it goes on, the 00:20:15.359 --> 00:20:18.640 worse it'll be. You know, I was amused to read 00:20:18.640 --> 00:20:22.660 recently. that Ukraine has actually sent us some 00:20:22.660 --> 00:20:25.599 support, drone support in the Middle East. It's 00:20:25.599 --> 00:20:27.380 kind of coming back. They're coming back. They're 00:20:27.380 --> 00:20:29.940 faithful to us. And they're helping us to defeat 00:20:29.940 --> 00:20:32.819 these Iranian drones that are hunting down our 00:20:32.819 --> 00:20:36.359 ships and our people. And I was very pleased 00:20:36.359 --> 00:20:39.220 to read that, that they're reciprocating out 00:20:39.220 --> 00:20:42.680 of their gratitude for our support. How do you 00:20:42.680 --> 00:20:44.619 think this situation in the Middle East will 00:20:44.619 --> 00:20:48.049 affect the Ukraine conflict with Russia? I mean, 00:20:48.089 --> 00:20:51.529 I think we behave shamefully towards Ukraine. 00:20:52.289 --> 00:21:01.430 The way I see it is Ukraine was doing a great 00:21:01.430 --> 00:21:04.369 service for us and for the world by really smashing 00:21:04.369 --> 00:21:10.470 the Russian army and just turning that war into 00:21:10.470 --> 00:21:15.690 a grinding slog that was driving Putin and another 00:21:17.289 --> 00:21:21.630 brutal regime towards annihilation. Now we've 00:21:21.630 --> 00:21:24.509 kind of breathed hope back into Putin. We've 00:21:24.509 --> 00:21:29.269 given him life again. And I think, yeah, I'm 00:21:29.269 --> 00:21:32.589 really disturbed by the way we've handled Ukraine. 00:21:33.390 --> 00:21:38.529 You know, we really betrayed them. And yeah, 00:21:38.630 --> 00:21:41.730 you know, I know people who are, you know, Ukraine 00:21:41.730 --> 00:21:44.359 could, you know, we've... The American military 00:21:44.359 --> 00:21:47.400 right now is behind in the drone war. Drones 00:21:47.400 --> 00:21:52.779 are the future of military conflict. Ukraine 00:21:52.779 --> 00:21:57.019 was able to hold off a vastly larger army and 00:21:57.019 --> 00:21:59.480 is still able to hold them off with minimal, 00:21:59.619 --> 00:22:02.240 with very cheap, simple technology that they 00:22:02.240 --> 00:22:06.299 have mastered. And we're behind them now. And 00:22:06.299 --> 00:22:10.980 if any country, they should certainly be helping. 00:22:12.569 --> 00:22:17.369 you know, helping, you know, in Iran, but they 00:22:17.369 --> 00:22:19.690 should be helping us. We, you know, I know people 00:22:19.690 --> 00:22:22.089 who are trying to bring Ukrainian experts into 00:22:22.089 --> 00:22:25.950 the American system. And the drones we're making 00:22:25.950 --> 00:22:30.950 now are being produced by Anduril and, you know, 00:22:31.009 --> 00:22:33.150 Lockheed Martin. And they're producing these 00:22:33.150 --> 00:22:35.230 expense, what defense contractors always do, 00:22:35.289 --> 00:22:38.910 these overpriced, you know, too fancy pieces 00:22:38.910 --> 00:22:42.140 of technology. When it should be simple, you 00:22:42.140 --> 00:22:47.920 know, mass production. And, you know, Iran may 00:22:47.920 --> 00:22:50.640 teach us some lessons in that as well. You know, 00:22:50.640 --> 00:22:52.640 they're able to field large numbers of drones, 00:22:52.759 --> 00:22:56.180 and it gets increasingly more expensive for us 00:22:56.180 --> 00:22:58.640 to shoot them down. You know, we're shooting 00:22:58.640 --> 00:23:02.960 a $1 ,000 or $10 ,000 drone down with a million 00:23:02.960 --> 00:23:06.059 -dollar missile. You know, that is a war of attrition 00:23:06.059 --> 00:23:09.740 that we will lose. Clearly, the Ukrainians, out 00:23:09.740 --> 00:23:13.039 of necessity, have made some light year jumps 00:23:13.039 --> 00:23:15.380 in technology. I guess it's the old saying, you 00:23:15.380 --> 00:23:17.039 know, if somebody's shooting at you, it focuses 00:23:17.039 --> 00:23:20.720 your mind. And they are focused. This is truly 00:23:20.720 --> 00:23:24.980 an existential challenge for Ukraine. And they 00:23:24.980 --> 00:23:29.480 have really responded to it amazingly. I'd like 00:23:29.480 --> 00:23:33.140 to turn shortly to you telling us about this 00:23:33.140 --> 00:23:35.559 new book you're writing. If you could give us 00:23:35.559 --> 00:23:39.460 a summary of this. I read about the fact that 00:23:39.460 --> 00:23:41.700 this was a Navy SEAL platoon. It's set up to 00:23:41.700 --> 00:23:45.480 take a fall for the CIA torture death. Can you 00:23:45.480 --> 00:23:48.619 tell us a bit about that? Sure. So this is a 00:23:48.619 --> 00:23:51.079 story. It's really an old story, but it's one 00:23:51.079 --> 00:23:55.359 I've been following for 20 years or so. There 00:23:55.359 --> 00:23:58.660 was a Navy SEAL platoon in Iraq that was working 00:23:58.660 --> 00:24:04.380 with the CIA on direct action missions to capture. 00:24:06.480 --> 00:24:08.420 insurgents and terror suspects, and this was 00:24:08.420 --> 00:24:10.380 in the early days of the Iraq War. This happened 00:24:10.380 --> 00:24:19.420 in November 2003. The platoon identified an insurgent, 00:24:19.420 --> 00:24:23.660 a cell leader. They went and they grabbed him. 00:24:24.079 --> 00:24:27.500 There were some problems with intelligence, so 00:24:27.500 --> 00:24:30.799 there was a struggle with the scene, but they 00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:35.390 subdued the guy. you know, captured him, brought 00:24:35.390 --> 00:24:38.630 him back to their base. He was questioned by 00:24:38.630 --> 00:24:42.130 the agency at their base. And then he was, agency 00:24:42.130 --> 00:24:44.549 drove him off to Abu Ghraib prison and he died 00:24:44.549 --> 00:24:48.750 a few hours later in Abu Ghraib in this torture 00:24:48.750 --> 00:24:51.650 position with his arms handcuffed behind his 00:24:51.650 --> 00:24:56.230 back. And his hands were behind his back, chained 00:24:56.230 --> 00:24:59.910 to the wall above him. And he fell forward and 00:24:59.910 --> 00:25:02.549 his arms rotated out of his sockets and he basically 00:25:02.549 --> 00:25:06.680 suffocated to death. And the only people ever 00:25:06.680 --> 00:25:09.480 brought to justice for this was a SEAL platoon. 00:25:09.680 --> 00:25:14.960 And it ruined careers. It altered lives. And 00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:18.059 it was part of the Abu Ghraib scandal. And, you 00:25:18.059 --> 00:25:20.200 know, when that happened, the Defense Department 00:25:20.200 --> 00:25:23.119 cleaned house and they found these guys, this 00:25:23.119 --> 00:25:27.160 SEAL platoon. And, you know, they've been living 00:25:27.160 --> 00:25:29.920 with it ever since. So, yeah, my book looks at... 00:25:30.250 --> 00:25:32.730 You know, the whole history of the torture program, 00:25:32.930 --> 00:25:37.130 of field missions, of the relationship between 00:25:37.130 --> 00:25:41.170 special forces and the CIA. And, you know, when 00:25:41.170 --> 00:25:43.869 that works well, as in the bin Laden raid, it's, 00:25:43.869 --> 00:25:46.950 you know, it's a credit to both. But when it 00:25:46.950 --> 00:25:49.650 goes badly, as it did in this case, it's not 00:25:49.650 --> 00:25:52.069 the CIA that usually takes the fault here. It's 00:25:52.069 --> 00:25:56.630 the special forces who do. And you have evidence 00:25:56.630 --> 00:25:59.410 that there were CIA officers involved in this, 00:25:59.430 --> 00:26:01.769 in the torture positions and things like that? 00:26:02.029 --> 00:26:04.710 Yeah, I mean, there was a prosecution of some 00:26:04.710 --> 00:26:08.609 of the SEALs here in Coronado, right outside 00:26:08.609 --> 00:26:11.410 where I live in San Diego. And yeah, there were 00:26:11.410 --> 00:26:14.829 CIA officers testifying. They testified behind 00:26:14.829 --> 00:26:18.490 a blue curtain, but they were CIA. Yeah, it was 00:26:18.490 --> 00:26:24.410 a CIA operation for sure. And yeah. It's real. 00:26:24.769 --> 00:26:27.730 Do you have a working title for your book? Well, 00:26:27.750 --> 00:26:30.589 that's where the Iceman comes from, because the 00:26:30.589 --> 00:26:35.289 guy who died, his name was Manadel al -Jamadi, 00:26:35.450 --> 00:26:39.869 but no one in Abu Ghraib could pronounce that 00:26:39.869 --> 00:26:44.750 name. So he died, and his photos wound up surfacing 00:26:44.750 --> 00:26:46.789 in the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, and he was 00:26:46.789 --> 00:26:50.289 a corpse packed in ice. And so the soldiers there 00:26:50.289 --> 00:26:52.680 called him the Iceman. So that's where that comes 00:26:52.680 --> 00:26:55.240 from. Okay. And that's also the name of your, 00:26:55.240 --> 00:26:57.799 your sub stack, isn't it? Well, it's the after 00:26:57.799 --> 00:27:00.759 action report is really the after action report. 00:27:01.140 --> 00:27:04.519 Yeah. And where, where can we find that? Is it 00:27:04.519 --> 00:27:08.279 just a subscribe newsletter? Yeah. If you go 00:27:08.279 --> 00:27:10.539 to sub stack and type in the after action report 00:27:10.539 --> 00:27:14.259 or my name, you'll find both find me through 00:27:14.259 --> 00:27:17.859 that. And yeah, welcome any new readers from 00:27:17.859 --> 00:27:21.599 your podcast. So, Seth, do you have any last 00:27:21.599 --> 00:27:24.960 thoughts or comments that you want to make about 00:27:24.960 --> 00:27:28.420 what you're working on or what we're facing as 00:27:28.420 --> 00:27:34.059 a nation? Yeah, I mean, I have a lot of concerns. 00:27:34.160 --> 00:27:36.019 I mean, there's a lot we could talk about here. 00:27:36.940 --> 00:27:44.839 I'm deeply concerned. I think things are happening 00:27:44.839 --> 00:27:48.690 now that we won't find out about for years. But 00:27:48.690 --> 00:27:50.730 something I think people should pay close attention 00:27:50.730 --> 00:27:54.009 to is this fight between Anthropic, the maker 00:27:54.009 --> 00:27:59.829 of the Claude AI agent, and the Pentagon. That 00:27:59.829 --> 00:28:02.430 is a fight really about domestic surveillance 00:28:02.430 --> 00:28:05.650 of Americans. That's what that boils down to. 00:28:06.210 --> 00:28:09.910 And the Pentagon is doing something right now, 00:28:10.089 --> 00:28:14.009 maybe under these new authorities that Trump 00:28:14.009 --> 00:28:19.059 has granted to this national security. memo seven 00:28:19.059 --> 00:28:23.019 uh which which targets um you know extremists 00:28:23.019 --> 00:28:26.900 in america supposedly uh domestic terrorism and 00:28:26.900 --> 00:28:29.859 i don't know what's going on but the pentagon 00:28:29.859 --> 00:28:31.799 is involved and that's very worrisome for me 00:28:31.799 --> 00:28:35.980 um and they are doing bulk surveillance of americans 00:28:35.980 --> 00:28:38.980 and the way that's happening is it's perfectly 00:28:38.980 --> 00:28:46.630 legal so uh you know The digital economy has 00:28:46.630 --> 00:28:52.789 created a perfect storm for a nightmare for intelligence 00:28:52.789 --> 00:28:59.150 and also a goldmine. If you're a spy, like if 00:28:59.150 --> 00:29:02.130 you're you and you're, you know, and you're carrying 00:29:02.130 --> 00:29:07.210 a cell phone, I mean, you're leaving a trail 00:29:07.210 --> 00:29:09.789 of digital exhaust that can follow you throughout 00:29:09.789 --> 00:29:13.849 the world without a team of, you know. KGB agents 00:29:13.849 --> 00:29:16.410 following you around in a car or a team of surveillance. 00:29:17.170 --> 00:29:22.490 You can be followed from your desk. And the American 00:29:22.490 --> 00:29:26.089 government is using that information to track 00:29:26.089 --> 00:29:30.190 Americans now. And I don't know the details, 00:29:30.410 --> 00:29:32.670 but I think people really need to pay attention 00:29:32.670 --> 00:29:35.829 to what's happening. Well, as a journalist, Seth, 00:29:36.029 --> 00:29:39.109 are you concerned about them tracking you? If 00:29:39.109 --> 00:29:42.519 you said something... unfavorable or, you know, 00:29:42.559 --> 00:29:45.180 unpolitical, something that you suddenly are 00:29:45.180 --> 00:29:47.700 on an enemy's list. How much does that concern 00:29:47.700 --> 00:29:50.240 you? Well, you know, I always think about what 00:29:50.240 --> 00:29:53.240 Seymour Hersh used to say. Seymour Hersh wrote 00:29:53.240 --> 00:29:59.660 stories that are far more, you know, he got far 00:29:59.660 --> 00:30:03.039 deeper than I ever have. And his response was, 00:30:03.160 --> 00:30:06.319 look, if the government is following some jerk 00:30:06.319 --> 00:30:09.720 like me, They've got bigger problems. And I think 00:30:09.720 --> 00:30:13.500 that's true. I think if the government is wasting 00:30:13.500 --> 00:30:15.759 its time and resources surveilling journalists, 00:30:16.099 --> 00:30:20.220 that's the canary in the coal mine for something 00:30:20.220 --> 00:30:24.140 else that's much worse is happening. Well, we've 00:30:24.140 --> 00:30:26.119 already seen an example of that. They raided 00:30:26.119 --> 00:30:29.299 a Washington Post reporter's home and confiscated 00:30:29.299 --> 00:30:33.660 a lot of her equipment. Yeah. That shocked a 00:30:33.660 --> 00:30:35.559 lot of people in the well, it shocked me and 00:30:35.559 --> 00:30:37.460 I'm not a journalist, but I mean, this is really 00:30:37.460 --> 00:30:41.599 a strike against the free press. It is. It is. 00:30:41.599 --> 00:30:44.819 But, you know, Obama was, you know, he was pretty 00:30:44.819 --> 00:30:46.740 aggressive against journalists, too. There were 00:30:46.740 --> 00:30:51.140 a lot of leak investigations. Back in the Obama 00:30:51.140 --> 00:30:53.440 era, we tend to forget about. It's been going 00:30:53.440 --> 00:30:56.279 on for a long time. That's a fair statement. 00:30:56.460 --> 00:30:59.839 But anytime we threaten the First Amendment rights, 00:30:59.980 --> 00:31:02.480 it always bothers me, as I know it bothers you. 00:31:02.880 --> 00:31:05.220 Well, I'm going to wrap this up, Seth, and I 00:31:05.220 --> 00:31:06.880 just want to say thank you so much for coming 00:31:06.880 --> 00:31:10.720 on our program today. Everybody, please subscribe 00:31:10.720 --> 00:31:12.779 to his After Action Report, and we're going to 00:31:12.779 --> 00:31:15.839 look forward to his book, The Iceman. And if 00:31:15.839 --> 00:31:18.059 you like what you heard on today's show, please 00:31:18.059 --> 00:31:20.660 subscribe to the Steady State Sentinel wherever 00:31:20.660 --> 00:31:23.440 you get your podcasts and give us a five -star 00:31:23.440 --> 00:31:26.400 review on Google. These subscriptions and five 00:31:26.400 --> 00:31:28.920 -star reviews help us get this important content 00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:32.519 to the widest audience possible. The Steady State 00:31:32.519 --> 00:31:35.279 Sentinel is for you, our listeners, and we want 00:31:35.279 --> 00:31:38.319 to hear from you. So stay informed, stay engaged, 00:31:38.460 --> 00:31:41.599 and join us next week for another episode of 00:31:41.599 --> 00:31:44.240 the Steady State Sentinel. For the Steady State 00:31:44.240 --> 00:31:47.470 Sentinel. I'm Jim Lawler, still standing watch. 00:31:50.269 --> 00:31:53.309 Thank you for listening to the SteadyState Sentinel 00:31:53.309 --> 00:31:56.809 podcast. Don't miss out on more insights and 00:31:56.809 --> 00:31:59.589 exposes from America's premier global security 00:31:59.589 --> 00:32:04.210 experts. 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