The Thanksgiving turkey is barely cold, but the
MLB hot stove is already absolutely scorching.
Welcome to the Baseball Podcast. It is. I mean,
if you thought things would cool down after the
Dodgers raised the trophy, you were completely
wrong. Not at all. It feels like we're deep in
the offseason, but the market just exploded right
out of the gate. It really has. The pace this
winter has been, well... Pretty much unprecedented.
Usually you see teams do this slow, intricate
dance, right? They wait for the winter meetings
to really set the market. But this year, a couple
of huge dominoes. I'm thinking of that Mets and
Rangers trade and the Blue Jays signing. It's
like they've just accelerated the timeline for
everyone. Position players, top tier pitchers,
everything is moving. We're talking about huge
landscape altering moves from the jump. The New
York Mets sent Brandon Nimmo, a huge fan favorite
who had just signed that massive eight -year
deal. Just a year ago. Exactly. Sent him packing
to the Texas Rangers for Marcus Simeon. I mean,
that move alone signaled a radical, immediate
pivot in Queens. And then you have the Toronto
Blue Jays just firing the first cannon shot.
in the AL East arms race. And that's exactly
what we're going to unpack today. We're going
to dive into these monumental shifts, these huge
financial gambles teams are taking. We'll look
at the high stakes decisions facing these clubs,
especially the ones trying to, you know, unseat
the Dodgers' new dynasty. And we're going to
get into some of the surprising trade targets
and the really complicated contract situations
that are already defining this winter. We've
got some incredible stories for you. We're going
to look into that absolutely electric 60 home
run season that carried the Mariners to the brink
of the World Series. And the really complicated
futures for guys like Nolan Arenado and Jeff
McNeil, veterans who could be on the move. And
you will not want to miss this. The mindset of
the Javides pitching star. who explicitly told
executives he does not want to join the Dodgers
super team because, in his words, he wants to
take them down. It's fantastic. It's not just
about who spends the most anymore. It's about
who spends the smartest. We've got the analysis
to show you which teams are making strategic
investments and which ones. Well, which ones
might be buying a very, very expensive bust?
All right. Let's jump right into the biggest
money move of the winter so far. Let's do it.
Let's start with the most expensive commitment
we've seen. The Dillon Seas mega deal. I mean,
the Toronto Blue Jays were agonizingly close
to winning it all in 2025. Two outs away. Just
painful. Two outs away from lifting the trophy.
That pain, you can just feel it, clearly fueled
their urgency. They didn't just go shopping.
They bought out the entire luxury store. They
absolutely took a bold and, I mean, costly gamble.
And you have to look at the context here. The
contract is reportedly seven years, $210 million.
That's a $30 million average annual value, an
AAV of $30 million. For a starting pitcher in
this market, that number just... jumps right
off the page, especially when you look at his
track record. It really does. Okay, so let's
get into why this deal is being called, you know,
exorbitant by some people. Cease is the definition
of boon or bust. Right. The boon part, you can't
deny it. 215 strikeouts in 168 innings in 2025.
That level of swing and miss is absolutely elite.
His stuff is just phenomenal. It is. His stuff
metrics are top of the league, but... The market
and the Blue Jays are pricing him as a true number
one ace, and his production profile doesn't quite
match that long -term reliability you want. So
you have to pair that immense upside with the
immediate risk. Exactly. He had a 4 .55 ERA last
season. That is significantly higher than what
you'd expect for a $30 million pitcher. And maybe
more critically, his innings average was low.
How low? Just 5 .25 innings per start. So you're
paying ace money for these huge strikeout numbers,
but you are absorbing the risk of, you know,
mid -rotation innings length and a ton of volatility.
So a part of me looks at this and just asks,
Toronto, are you desperate? Are they compensating
for the fact that their development system might
not have a frontline starter ready right now?
Or are they worried that their window, you know,
with their core guys might be closing soon? Is
$30 million for a volatile pitcher a sign of
panic? I think it's a calculated risk born out
of necessity. Yeah. The Blue Jays front office
looked around and realized they had to do something
big to separate themselves from the Yankees and
solidify that rotation now. Before the other
top arms came off the board. Precisely. If they
waited, they risk losing out on everyone. So
they're effectively betting $210 million that
their pitching development staff can cut his
walk rate and turn that 5 .25 innings per start
into, say, 6 .5 innings per start. And if they
can do that? If they can fix that command, they
have an annual Cy Young contender. But if they
can't, that contract, like you said, could become
a huge, huge burden. They'd be left with a right
-handed, high strikeout, high walk version of
Blake Snell. But the immediate impact on that
roster. is undeniable. He slumps into a rotation
that already has Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber,
who they brought back. Which was a huge move
in itself. And Treya Savage, that high upside
prospect. I mean, all of a sudden, that looks
like arguably the best rotation in the entire
American League. It creates this immediate, almost
overwhelming depth. The addition of Cease. presumably
pushes Jose Barrios, who's a proven veteran,
a guy who has performed in big games. Right.
It pushes him to the number four or number five
spot in the rotation. That kind of luxury, having
that quality of an insurance policy, that's what
championship teams are made of. And there's a
stat that really underlines the potential dominance
here. It's a great one. Cease and Gossman, as
a pair, lead all of Major League Baseball in
total strikeouts since the start of the 2020
season. That's a one -two punch. That is just
designed to overwhelm any lineup you face in
October. Absolutely. And the mentality of the
organization seems to reflect the urgency of
the deal. Yeah, Max Scherzer, who they got late
last year, and Vladdy Jr. They've both publicly
referenced that Kobe Bryant jobs not finished
Mantra after losing the World Series. So this
cease signing is management basically declaring
to the fans, we are doing everything we possibly
can to win it all in 2026. OK, so that brings
us to their biggest rival, because this huge
financial commitment and the just the aggressive
speed of the cease deal. makes the silence from
the New York Yankees all the more striking. It
really does. The Yankees are, at least publicly,
just sitting on their hands. They seem fixated
on their big targets, Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger,
but they haven't made that splash that their
fan base is expecting, especially now after seeing
Toronto just leapfrog them in the rotation rankings.
And we heard from the owner, Hal Steinbrenner,
about this. He was asked about this perceived
inaction, and he expressed concern over the Dodgers'
dynasty for sure. He acknowledged the competitive
gap. But he also pushed back pretty hard on the
idea that the Yankees have to match the Dodgers
dollar for dollar. He did. He gave a strong,
pretty detailed argument against that whole spend
to win narrative. So what was his counter argument
specifically? He argued that the correlation
between just raw spending and winning championships
is, in his words, weak. And he used 2025 as the
prime example. He pointed right at the Mets,
who had that massive payroll and missed the playoffs
entirely. And contrasted that with who? With
the Brewers, a small payroll team that ended
up with the best regular season record in the
entire National League. He believes it's about
the strategic efficiency of your spending, not
just the total amount. But isn't it a little
easy for an owner of one of the richest teams
in the world to make that philosophical argument?
when his team already has pretty significant
financial constraints. That's the real issue
here. They absolutely do. It's not just a philosophy.
There are concrete hurdles. The Yankees already
have a massive payroll overflow, and their flexibility
got even tighter because of one specific thing.
Trent Grisham accepting the qualifying offer.
Okay, explain for everyone why that $22 million
acceptance is so critical. to their flexibility
right now. It all comes down to the competitive
balance tax, the CBT and its tiers. The Yankees
are already deep into the penalty zone. Now,
when your own player accepts the qualifying offer,
that entire salary, $22 .025 million, immediately
counts against your CBT calculation. And that
pushes them even further into the highest penalty
bracket. Right. It dramatically increases the
cost of every single additional dollar they want
to spend on a big free agent like Kyle Tucker
or Cody Bellinger. That acceptance didn't cost
them a draft pick, but it severely, severely
limited their financial wiggle room. So the Yankees
have to be incredibly precise. The pressure is
on, especially with the Blue Jays loading up
next door. It's intense. Most analysts believe
the Yankees need a huge splurge. They need to
land one of those big targets, or as one insider
put it, two or three swaps completely off the
beaten path if they want to win the winter. And
if they strike out. The narrative will be terrible.
And beyond that, with the Blue Jays getting cease,
a lot of people are already viewing Toronto as
the prohibitive favorites to land Kyle Tucker,
the best bat on the market. So New York could
miss out on the top bat and a top arm and just
get left behind in a division that is only getting
stronger. That's the fear in the Bronx right
now. OK, we've established the arms race in the
AL East, but the action is definitely not limited
to free agency. Let's shift over to the National
League. Specifically, the New York Mets. They
made a truly radical pivot with that Brandon
Nimmo for Marcus Simeon trade. That was a genuine
shock to the system. Trading Nimmo, who was productive,
a leader, and just one year into that eight -year
contract. For Simeon, a veteran infielder. Yeah.
It's just such a clear statement from the new
front office. It absolutely confirms David Stern's
strategic goal. He's prioritizing defensive stability.
He wants immediate roster flexibility. And he's
shedding long -term contract risk, even if it
means giving up a superior offensive player like
Nimmo. Nimmo was a fan favorite, too. I mean,
known for his relentless hustle. Moving him sends
a really strong message to that clubhouse and
that fan base. What does it tell us about the
Mets' new strategy? It signals a deep philosophical
commitment to asset management and future planning
by taking on Semin's remaining years, which are
shorter than Nemo's deal. The Mets get that flexibility.
But more importantly, they're signaling that
pretty much any non -untouchable player, especially
anyone signed by the previous regime, is on the
table. If the return is right. If the return
provides that combination of defensive value
and organizational flexibility, it's a ruthless
approach, but it could be a really effective
way to reshape the roster. So that Nemo trade
immediately creates an infield surplus, which
of course brings us to the growing trade speculation
around Jeff McNeil. This girl. He's the next
logical domino, right? After Nemo leaves and
Semien arrives, the Mets are loaded with infield
and utility options. You've got McNeil with his
proven defensive versatility and his contact
first back. And then you have the younger high
upside prospect, Lisan Gil Acuna. Exactly. So
the front office has this critical choice to
make. Do you stick with the proven high floor
player in McNeil who gives you immediate value?
Or do you commit to Acuna who offers more speed?
more positional flexibility, and that untapped
power potential. Trading McNeil now, while his
value is at its highest, feels like the classic
David Stearns move. It really does. And if they
do decide to move him, the Angels seem to be
the primary trade partner. The Mets are specifically
targeting pitching in return to replenish their
system. Okay, let's look at the two pitchers
they're reportedly focused on from the Angels.
The main target, the highest value option, is
a guy named George Klassen. He's rated by some
as a top five Angels prospect, and his appeal
is pretty simple. The velocity. Trickle -digit
heat. He has an electric fastball that sits in
the upper 90s, so he's pretty close to being
MLB ready with mid -rotation upside. He was great
in AA recently. But every high -velocity arm
comes with that detailed scouting report on the
risk factors. What's the catch with Klassen?
It's significant control risk. They call it reliever
risk. He was a control challenge arm in college,
and while he's worked on it, The high walk rates
are still there. It's common for guys who throw
100 miles an hour to struggle to harness it consistently.
So the Mets would be betting on their player
development system. Exactly. Betting that they
can convert that high -octane stuff into sustainable
command. The second name is Sammy Natera Jr.,
a lower -cost, high -intrigue lefty. Tell us
about his profile. Natera is a fascinating story.
He's a late bloomer. He didn't even start pitching
until he was 17, so even though he's 26, he has
a really low mileage on his arm. That's a huge
plus. And he broke out recently. Big time in
the Arizona Fall League. He showed off a mid
-90s fastball, even touched 98, and paired it
with a sweeping slider that gets a ton of swing
and miss. So he could be a fast mover. Yeah.
Big frame, lefty profile, and the potential to
move quickly through the upper minors as either
a high leverage bullpen arm or just a low cost
rotation option. He'd be a value play for them.
And the Angels' ability to even make these trades
is driven by a massive internal financial shift
of their own. The Anthony Rendon contract situation.
This is the definition of clearing a legacy burden
off the books. A new era in Anaheim. It really
is. After Rendon's retirement and these contract
buyout discussions, plus trading Taylor Ward,
the Angels are executing a major financial reboot.
They're moving on from those past big money mistakes.
So how does the Rendon buyout specifically help
their spending power this offseason? This is
where it gets a little complicated. It is, but
it's all about that competitive balance tax accounting.
Right now, the Angels have about $40 million
they could comfortably spend. Rendon was owed
a massive amount of money. If they can execute
this pragmatic buyout, they're looking at eating
over two thirds of his remaining deal right now.
That's a big immediate cash hit. It is, but it
allows them to defer the final, more manageable
chunk, about $12 .8 million across 2026 and 2027.
And the CBT implication of that. That's the key.
By deferring that last bit and accelerating the
rest, they free up an additional $30 million
this year in immediate CBT space. Wow. So that
could potentially double their free agency budget.
It could. It catapults them from being a mid
-market player to being competitive for guys
like Cody Bellinger, Boba Shett, or even the
Japanese superstar Munataka Murakami. They are
clearing the decks now so they can play at the
top of the market this winter. That is fascinating.
A classic case of short -term pain for long -term
strategic gain. Let's turn to another veteran
third baseman who's dominating trade rumors,
also dealing with a big contract. Nolan Arenado
in St. Louis. Yeah, the Cardinals, after trading
Sonny Gray to the Red Sox, are now entirely focused
on moving Arenado. And the new team president,
Shane Bloom, has been unusually blunt about it.
What did he say? He stated publicly that after
some internal discussions, quote, we all feel
like it's best to find a different fit. I mean,
that level of public admission all but guarantees
a trade is coming. But finding a trade partner
is going to be incredibly difficult given his
recent performance. His 2025 season was just
a continuation of a slide we've seen since his
great 2022 campaign. The numbers are stark. Especially
for a player of his caliber, he posted a career
low slash line of .237, .289, .377. That gives
him an 87 OPS plus in 2025. So significantly
below league average offense from a corner infielder.
Way below. And if you look at the underlying
analytics, the real concern is his hard hit rate.
It has just plummeted down to the 12th percentile
over the last two years. What's the reason for
that? Is it mechanical or just age? Most analysts
point to an age -related decline in bat speed.
He's turning 35 in April. And that's coupled
with a tendency to chase more breaking balls
out of the zone, which leads to weak contact.
The defense is still elite, though. That's the
thing. He's still a gold glover. Oh, yeah. Plus
six defensive runs saved, plus three outs above
average last year. But teams need more than just
a great glove at that salary. And what exactly
is that salary commitment? He's owed $37 million
for two more seasons, plus the Rockies are still
kicking in $5 million. So a team is acquiring
a declining bat, albeit with that great glove,
for $37 million a year. So who can possibly afford
that risk? Who are the fits? The only viable
fits are major market teams with a big, obvious
hole at third base. So the most plausible destinations
are the Red Sox. especially if Alex Bregman signs
elsewhere, and the Phillies if they decide to
trade Alec Boehm, who's entering his final year
before free agency. So both have the payroll
and the immediate need to absorb that contract.
Exactly. And they'd be betting that the defensive
value and the leadership he brings outweighs
that offensive decline. And are there teams that
should absolutely be running in the other direction
from this deal? Oh, absolutely. Analysts are
practically screaming warnings at small market
clubs that already have internal solutions. Take
the A's, for example. They need offense, sure,
but they have Brett Harris, who is cost controlled
and actually provided superior defense on a per
inning basis last year. What about the Royals?
The Royals have Michael Garcia established at
third. For a team like Kansas City, that $16
million net salary is just, it's called excessive.
Pursuing Orinato would be a financially and strategically
terrible decision for them. They just cannot
afford a below -average offensive bat with that
kind of price tag. The trade market is so intricate,
so much financial cleanup. But the biggest dollars,
they're still waiting for the top free agent
bats. Yeah. And leading that chase is Kyle Tucker.
who some are calling the market's apex predator.
And that's a pretty well -earned nickname. Tutler
is widely expected to get the biggest contract
this offseason. Some projections are putting
his value up to a staggering $427 million. Wow.
At age 28, he is right in his prime. He's got
power, plate discipline, consistency, five -tool
ability, and he plays solid defense in the corner
outfield. Okay, let's talk about that $427 million
number. What's the comparison that's driving
a projection that high? It's the comparison to
guys like Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr., who
signed those long -term, team -friendly deals
earlier in their careers. Tucker has sustained
elite production all through his arbitration
years, and now he's hitting the market at the
perfect age to command maximum length and value.
So he's projected to have, what, five or six
years of peak performance left? At least. And
in today's market, where superstar contracts
are easily breaking 350, that 427 number represents
the premium for a highly durable, complete offensive
threat. And of course, we have to talk about
the Dodgers. They are back -to -back World Series
champions, yet they are strongly linked to the
biggest name available. How is that even possible?
It just speaks to their relentless pursuit of
perfection. They're champions, yes. But their
2025 outfield offense was, believe it or not,
a real liability. It was described as pretty
mediocre and even an offensive black hole for
long stretches of the season. I remember that.
Yeah, their overall offense was great, but the
outfield posted a dismal .299 on -base percentage
and just lacked consistent power. Tucker changes
all of that overnight. So they're fixing a glaring
weakness. even though they just won a title.
Exactly. And Tucker is the perfect fit for their
young core strategy. He's 28, so he aligns perfectly
with the window of Yamamoto and Otani. They see
an opportunity to replace a position of weakness
with an immediate superstar who can stabilize
their lineup for the next decade. And then on
the other end of the spectrum, you have a team
like the Brewers. Won 97 games, but they recognize
they just cannot compete in this arena. The Brewers
are the perfect example of that market disparity.
They won through superior drafting and development.
And while analysts agree Tucker would be an excellent
fit for their needs. Of course he would. The
club knows they won't even be in the sweepstakes.
Their strategy is to identify cheaper, high floor
veterans. And that's just the reality of operating
with a constrained budget against teams like
the Dodgers. All right. The next big offensive
name is Cody Bellinger. who seems to have finally
put together the season he needed to earn that
massive long -term deal. Bellinger timed his
opt -out perfectly. He had his best season since
his 2019 MVP year, slashed .272, .334, .480 with
29 homers, 98 RBI. And crucially... He maintained
that defensive versatility. Oh, yeah. Stellar
defensively. Plus seven outs above average across
first base and the outfield. That versatility
just significantly boosts his market value. And
the battle for him is going to be intense. Who
are the main competitors here? The competition
is reportedly confined to the five richest teams
in baseball. The Yankees are desperate to bring
him back. His left -handed swing is just tailor
-made for that ballpark. He just owns that ballpark.
He does. The Mets have an immediate outfield
opening after the Nimmo trade, so he's a natural
fit for their power needs. A Dodgers reunion
is always possible, but the primary bidding war
really seems to be between the two New York rivals.
Let's pivot to Pete Alonzo and the extremely
messy situation his free agency is creating for
the Boston Red Sox, who are reportedly very interested.
Alonzo opted out. He's looking for an ambitious
seven -year deal. And Boston's interest on paper,
it makes a lot of sense. He hit 38 homers with
141 WRC plus last season. And he's that right
-handed power bat that Boston's left -skewing
lineup desperately needs for balance. Exactly.
But signing him means someone else gets displaced.
Specifically, Triskan Kassas and Masataka Yoshida.
This feels like a recipe for some internal chaos.
It creates a huge domino effect for that front
office. If Alondo comes in, he is the full -time
first baseman. That means Christian Casas, a
recent top prospect, is either relegated to a
DH bench role or, more likely, he gets traded.
And Casas struggled mightily in 2025 before that
knee injury, so trading him now while his value
is low is a really complicated decision given
his team control. And what about Yoshida, who
is also a massive recent signing? The consensus
among analysts is that Yoshida's production as
a DH doesn't warrant a starting job for a serious
contender, especially a team that has other holes
to fix. If Alonzo takes first base, Boston probably
needs to trade Yoshida to open up that DH slot
or just to free up cash. It's a real conflict.
Spend big on Alonzo, but then you have to sacrifice
a recent big investment in either Casas or Yoshida.
Right. And meanwhile, the Phillies are dealing
with a standoff of their own with their star
slugger, Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber was the NL
MVP runner up in 2025 after clubbing a monstrous
56 home runs. The Phillies have said re -signing
him is their number one priority. But his agents
are wisely capitalizing on that monumental season.
And the reports are that the two sides are. not
close to a deal. And the critique we're seeing
is that this delay is creating a sort of organizational
opportunity cost. How does that paralysis actually
manifest itself? It's simple market leverage.
Until the Phillies know Schwarber's intentions
and the final number on his deal, they're financially
and structurally paralyzed. They can't seriously
pursue other high -end bats like Alex Bregman
or make a trade for someone like Cattell Marte.
Because they don't know if they'll have the payroll
flexibility or if the DH spot will even be open.
Exactly. The longer this negotiation drags on,
the more likely it is they miss out on other
market opportunities that are moving quickly.
And we had that rumor about the Pittsburgh Pirates
being linked to Schwarber. That seems absolutely
ludicrous given their spending history. It did.
That rumor got a 9 .9 out of 10 on the industry's
skepticism meter because, frankly, it just defies
all reality. The Pirates have never spent more
than, what, $17 million on an external free agent?
In franchise history, right. So while it would
be a phenomenal move for their fan base, analysts
are viewing this as pure lip service. They're
trying to convince the MLBPA and their own fans.
that they're trying to spend without any real
intention of paying Schwarber the $25 million
a year he's going to command. Finally, let's
wrap this segment up with the bizarre JT RealMutal
market. He's the top free agent catcher, but
the reported interest from the Red Sox is baffling
a lot of analysts. It truly is confusing. It
highlights a potential lack of strategic focus
in Boston. Look, Rio Muto is a clear upgrade
over almost any catcher. He still hit a consistent
.257 with 12 homers last year, and his arm is
a legitimate weapon against the running game.
So if he's an upgrade, what makes the interest
so baffling? It's about their organizational
priorities. Boston has gaping holes at first
base, third base, and in the middle of their
bullpen. What they don't need is another catcher.
They already have Connor Wong and Carlos Narvaez.
Right. They just tendered contracts to both of
them. They're controlled through 2028, and they'll
cost a combined $2 million next year. So why
would you spend $18 to $20 million a year on
Real Muto when you have cheap young options and
far more pressing needs elsewhere? And his defensive
profile is getting more complicated too, isn't
it? It is. While that arm is elite, his pitch
framing was among the league's worst last year.
He was measured at negative nine runs. And in
the modern game, framing is arguably the most
critical defensive skill for a catcher. It is,
outside of blocking. So signing Ryomuto means
you're sacrificing value in that critical area
for an expensive and frankly unnecessary upgrade
at a position where you already have depth. It
just seems strategically backward. The free agent
market for bats is moving fast, but the pitching
market is just as dramatic, especially with the
global interest focused on Japanese star right
-hander Tatsuya Imai, who is arguably the best
pitcher available after Cease. Imei's free agency
story is fantastic because it brings us right
back to the dynamic of the Dodgers super team.
He made headlines by stating very explicitly
that he does not want to join the Los Angeles
Dodgers. Who already have Otani, Yamamoto, and
Sasaki. Right. He sees that as the easy way out.
He wants to, in his words, take them down. That
is a massive competitive statement. It speaks
to this profound competitive edge and a really
unique desire for self -reliance. He said he
wants to seek the sense of survival that comes
from overcoming cultural and linguistic differences
on his own. So playing with other Japanese stars
would be a crutch in his mind. Basically. He
feels like he could just ask questions and take
the path of least resistance. Instead, he wants
the ultimate challenge. Competing against baseball's
reigning dynasty and proving he can dominate
independently. So that immediately changes the
conversation about where he might land. Where
are executives predicting he'll actually sign?
An ESPN executive survey has the Giants as the
favorite with five votes. The idea of pairing
him with Logan Webb to immediately challenge
the Dodgers is really appealing. And behind them.
The Yankees and, surprisingly, the Dodgers were
tied for second with three votes each. Despite
what Emea said, teams still believe money and
comfort could end up swaying him. If the Yankees
landed him, that would be a huge statement. It
would create a phenomenal rotation. What's the
general contract prediction? The expectation
is that the Yankees will ultimately land him
for something around seven years and $196 million.
Even with Hal Steinbrenner talking about financial
restraint. The Yankees still have the ability
to outbid almost anyone when they target a specific
international free agent they believe will define
their rotation for years. Another team scrambling
for pitching is the Cubs. They desperately need
to make a move after missing out on both Sonny
Gray and Dylan Cease. The urgency in Chicago
is acute. They view the 27 -year -old Imai as
the ideal philosophical fit for them, a young
star they can pay for future performance, which
aligns with Jed Hoyer's long -term plan. And
what is it about his stuff that they like so
much? He has a really high ceiling because of
his unique pitch mix. It's led by a spitter -changeup
combination that generates just unusual movement
and really low contact rates. And even with the
emergence of that rookie, Kate Horton, who had
that incredible 1 .03 ERA in the second half
of last season, they still need major upgrades.
They do. Horton and the return of Shota Imanaga,
who took the qualifying offer, that's a good
foundation. But the rest of their rotation is
either volatile or aging. The Cubs have made
it clear they're pursuing multiple trade options
to get two more reliable starters. Guys like
Michael King, Mackenzie Gore, and Joe Ryan are
on their list. They have to turn that rotation
into a strength if they want to get out of the
NL Central. Let's talk about a fascinating experiment.
The closer turn starter. Free agent Ryan Helsley,
an elite closer, is being pursued as a potential
starting pitcher, with the Detroit Tigers as
the main suitor. This is a classic. Cheap, buy
low, high upside gamble for a financially constrained
team like Detroit. And it's not coming out of
nowhere. Helsley was primarily a starter in the
minors. He had a 2 .84 ERA across 69 starts down
there. So the Tigers need pitching help. And
Helsley is a way to potentially acquire a front
end arm without paying top end for agent prices.
That's the idea. But the risk of converting a
high leverage reliever back into a starter is
immense. There are a lot of pitfalls. What are
the main ones? The biggest risks are injury and
a decline in velocity past the 60 pitch mark.
Closers train for max effort over one inning.
Converting to a starter requires building up
to 100 pitches while maintaining efficiency.
And that often results in a one or two mile per
hour drop in velocity as the game goes on. But
if it fails, you can always go back to the bullpen.
Right, which is the safety net here. He can revert
to being a high leverage reliever, which Detroit
still needs. But they are gambling their rotation
hopes on a massive structural change to his arm
care and his workload. Switching to bullpen health.
Yeah. Josh Hader. He suffered that capsule sprain
in his throwing shoulder that ended his 2025
season in August. Where does his recovery stand?
The reports are that Hader is back to normal.
He avoided surgery, which is huge, and has completed
his throwing program. he's expected to be ready
to go for spring training. But that injury raised
some serious workload concerns, especially after
he kind of reversed his long -standing approach
to multi -inning appearances after he signed
that big contract. That's the critical narrative
that has to worry the Astros. Hader historically
avoided multi -inning outings before he signed
that five -year, $95 million deal. And after
he signed it. He reversed course. He made seven
multi -inning appearances in 2025. That significantly
increased... the stress on his arm, and it culminated
in a season -high 36 pitches right before he
got hurt. And given his unique mechanics, what's
the long -term prognosis for a recurring injury
here? His mechanics are the issue. Hayter uses
a really pronounced cross -body pitching action.
And while that's great for deception and movement,
it places significantly more strain on the shoulder
capsule and the labrum than a pure over -the
-top delivery. So analysts see this as a potential
recurring problem. They do. And while Hader insists
he's still open to multi -inning work, his long
-term health is a serious question for the Astros.
That violent delivery style is just inherently
higher risk. Before we move on from pitching,
we have to talk about Paul Skeens and the pre
-arbitration bonus pool. Skeens, the Parrots'
righty, was the unanimous National League Cy
Young winner in 2025, led the majors with a 1
.97 ERA. Just an incredible season. And because
of that, he received a record $3 million from
the pre -arbitration bonus pool. We hear about
this pool a lot. But for the listener who doesn't
try player economics, how exactly does this bonus
pool work? And how did Skeens get such a huge
payout? It's a mechanism that was established
in the 2022 CBA. And it's designed to make sure
top young players get paid fairly before they're
eligible for arbitration. It's a massive multi
-million dollar pool that gets distributed every
year. And players qualify based on performance.
Right, performance metrics. Finishing in the
top five for MVP or Cy Young, which Skeens did,
or being named Rookie of the Year, or achieving
high war metrics in your first three seasons.
Skeens' Cy Young win triggered the top payout
bracket, and it raised his two -year pre -arb
earnings to over $5 .5 million. It's a direct
financial reward for elite performance. And finally,
a fascinating technical development involving
the new... automated ball strike challenge system.
This is great. Guardians prospect Trenton Denholm
is already adapting his pitch mix to exploit
the new system, which is set to debut officially
in 2026. He's added both a knuckleball and a
sinker to his repertoire. The strategy here is
brilliant. Why a knuckleball? Of all pitches,
how is that effective against an automated system?
The Baby S system relies on predictive models
based on spin and trajectory. Pitches with extremely
low or chaotic spin, like a knuckleball or a
high -movement sinker, they challenge the AI's
ability to accurately predict the ball's final
location over the plate. So he thinks the knuckleball
could steal more strikes. That's the theory,
that the unpredictable flutter could make the
zone definition more generous to non -traditional
pitches. It's just a great example of players
immediately strategizing around new technologies.
Okay, let's turn our attention out west to the
Seattle Mariners. The 2025 season will be remembered
for one of the most incredible individual power
displays in history. Cal Raleigh, becoming the
first catcher and only the seventh player ever
to hit 60 home runs in a single season. It was
just the stuff of legend. He carried that team
offensively, finished just four votes shy of
the AL MVP award, and he powered the Mariners
all the way to the American League Championship
Series. They fell just one game short of the
World Series, but that team proved they were
a true contender. And he had incredible support
from that core. Julio Rodriguez continues to
be an all -around superstar. He logged a career
-high 6 .8 B vol in a 128 OPS plus man and finished
sixth in MVP voting. And you can't forget the
bullpen. Andres Munoz established himself as
a true lockdown closer. 38 saves, a 1 .73 ERA.
The fact that the Mariners had both a generational
power season and a dominant core clicking at
the same time, it led to some incredible playoff
moments. Let's just revisit those emotional moments
for a second. They provided heroics that will
define that franchise for years. You had Jorge
Polanco with the walk -off RBI single in the
15th inning of ALDS Game 5 against the Tigers.
An unbelievable game. And then in the ALCS, Eugenio
Suarez blasted a grand slam in Game 5 in a tie
game, which briefly gave them the series lead.
Those emotional highs just cemented that core
as a legitimate force. So now that they're firmly
in contention mode, the Mariners face that really
challenging balancing act that every successful
team has to deal with. Integrating their next
wave of high -ceiling hitting prospects without
disrupting that established core. This is the
critical, really delicate stage of their draft,
develop, and trade strategy. Management Jerry
DiPoto and Justin Hollander, they've made a promise
to the players and the fans. They've committed
to letting young players tell us it's their time,
and they've promised not to artificially block
them. That sounds great in theory, but rookie
volatility can absolutely kill a contention window.
How are they navigating the pressure from guys
like Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Ben Williamson,
and the catcher Harry Ford all hitting the upper
minors at the same time? They have to rely heavily
on positional flexibility and veteran insurance.
Hollander stressed how much they rely on versatile
guys like Jorge Polanco and Leo Rivas, who were
so vital last year, just to provide cover when
a top prospect inevitably struggles. Cole Young's
debut is the perfect example of this challenge.
It is. Young started off rough. I mean, he went
a miserable one for 19. That can crush a team's
morale and a player's confidence if you don't
have support. But management showed patience.
They did. And he stabilized. He had a great...
six or seven weeks before he just ran out of
gas. Their whole philosophy is that you're never
going to have the team that you want to have
in September, in April. You have to rely on depth
and that versatility to handle those natural
rookie performance peaks and valleys. So the
goal is just to acquire as many versatile players
as possible so they can deploy the next young
guy without sacrificing wins. Flexibility is
paramount. Think about Harry Ford. He's a high
-end catching prospect, but Cal Raleigh is entrenched
after hitting 60 home runs. Right. So Ford needs
to play. They need the versatility to let him
get reps at DH, corner infield, maybe even corner
outfield, just to keep his bat developing. It's
about managing high -value assets and making
sure they stay motivated and productive, even
if their primary position is blocked. We also
saw the Mariners looking for some veteran depth
with the signing of the 38 -year -old journeyman
righty Casey Lawrence. Yeah. Lawrence, who has
a career 6 .42 ERA, threw five games with Seattle
last year. And that signing, it's usually just
a footnote, but it really highlights that constant
search for non -roster, high mileage organizational
depth. When your payroll is committed to the
core, you need those low cost insurance policies
in AAA. Ready to soak up innings if an injury
hits. Exactly. And speaking of depth. The Brewers,
coming off their 97 -win season, are also looking
for some familiar faces to fill out their rotation.
The obvious candidate for a reunion there is
the lefty, Jose Quintana. The 36 -year -old declined
his $15 million mutual option, but he's still
a workmanlike starter. He's logged over 165 innings
nine times in his career. Including 24 starts
for Milwaukee last season. Right. And his ERA
has been sub -4 for the last four seasons. That
consistency, even if the advanced metrics aren't
stellar, that is immensely valuable. It is. Milwaukee
desperately needs rotation depth and bulk innings.
Quintana could be a high -end swingman for them,
soak up innings out of the bullpen, or fill in
as a back -end starter. It saves innings for
their younger, higher -velocity arms over the
long season. They should be highly motivated
to strike another deal if he's willing to take
a short -term contract at a slightly lower salary.
As we move into the quieter, more reflective
parts of the offseason, let's look back on some
of the biggest moments and stories that shape
baseball culture. And we have to start with the
dramatic conclusion of the 2025 season. The Dodgers
winning Game 7 of the World Series. The drama
was immense. The Dodgers getting their second
straight trophy in a nail -biting Game 7 against
the Blue Jays was a modern classic. We have to
rewind to the late innings to really appreciate
the chaos. The Blue Jays had the lead late. The
Dodgers were facing elimination. And then Miguel
Rojas, of all people, hits the game -tying home
run. And that wasn't even the most dramatic moment
in the ninth. With one out and the bases loaded,
a sharp grounder was hit to Rojas, who was playing
in. He had to rush the throw home to a stretching
Will Smith to get the bang -bang out at the plate
and stop the winning run from scoring. That defensive
play forced extra innings. It did. And then the
11th inning heroics. Will Smith, who had just
made that crucial defensive play, hits the game
-winning solo home run. But the moment that truly
defined that series and maybe cemented the Dodgers'
dynasty mentality was the performance of the
World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He pitched
his third inning of relief in Game 7 after throwing
96 pitches just the day before in Game 6. That
kind of workload is almost unheard of in modern
baseball. It's unbelievable. It is. He was running
on pure adrenaline and just competitive fire.
He induced the final two outs on a single play.
Mookie Betts cleanly catching a fly ball, touching
second, and throwing to Freddie Freeman at first
to clinch the championship. Yamamoto's sacrifice
and the managerial decision to even push him
to that limit, it just spoke volumes about that
team's win -at -all -costs mentality. Away from
the field, Shohei Otani continues to cement his
status as a philanthropic icon. He recently launched
the Shohei Otani Family Foundation. The foundation
has a dual, very personal mission. It focuses
heavily on rescuing animals, which is fitting
since he's a proud owner of his dog, Decoy, and
on inspiring children globally to stay active
and live well. This is part of a deliberate pattern
of generosity we've seen from him since he came
to Los Angeles. This isn't just a new celebrity
foundation either. He has a documented history
of significant giving. Absolutely. In 2025 alone,
he donated half a million dollars for L .A. wildfire
relief. And back in 2024, he and the Dodgers
committed a million dollars for earthquake relief
in Japan. His foundation work is a clear sign
that his connection to both the L .A. community
and his home country is a major personal commitment.
Now let's turn to a rare moment of cross -rivalry
respect. The Boston Red Sox gave their Tony Conigliaro
Award to a New York Yankee. Yeah, to the reliever
Tim Hill. This award, which recognizes a player
who overcomes adversity through spirit and determination,
is a huge honor. And Hill is the first Yankee
ever to receive it in its 25 -year history, which
just underscores the severity of what he overcame.
And what was the specific adversity he overcame?
Hill was diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer
back in 2015 while he was still a minor leaguer.
He went through eight months of chemotherapy,
lost a lot of weight, but he persevered and eventually
made his MLB debut in 2018. And the adversity
was compounded by the fact that he'd previously
lost his own father to the same cancer in 2007.
That's right. It's an incredible story of resilience.
Hill is also known for his unique pitching style
as a side -armer. He is. He's a ground ball specialist
known for his sinker and that sidearm delivery.
He ranked second in the majors in ground ball
percentage in 2025. This cross rivalry praise
just highlights that while the Yankees and Red
Sox have that fierce competitive spirit, the
human element overcoming a life -threatening
illness is something that transcends the game.
Finally, let's look at the baseball history explored
in the documentary United by Baseball, which
shines a light on Colorado's really diverse baseball
past. The documentary illustrates how deep baseball
history runs in Colorado. It arrived with the
gold rush back in 1858, 18 years before the territory
even became a state. It details the early teams
in mining towns like the Leadville Blues and
farming communities like the Greeley Grays. But
the section on race and the color barrier is
the most historically significant part. Absolutely.
The focus is on the Denver Post Tournament, which
was known as the Little World Series of the West.
In 1934, it became a landmark event because it
was the first major tournament to invite black
and white teams to play against each other. Specifically
featuring the Kansas City Monarchs from the Negro
Leagues. Right, playing against white teams.
And historians credit this event with actively
accelerating the breaking of the color barrier.
Yeah. One historian in the film argues that without
the Denver Post tournament, Jackie Robinson would
not have broken the color barrier in 1947. It
would have happened later. This public... Highly
successful integration forced owners and fans
to confront their biases and see Black players
competing at the highest level. It's a key, often
overlooked, moment in baseball history. And the
documentary also highlights the powerful resilience
of Japanese Americans during World War II. It
did. It covered the Japanese Americans who were
interned in camps like Amashé between 1942 and
1945. They formed their own baseball teams and
leagues. playing for a sense of community and
joy, and partly as a demonstration of loyalty
to the United States, even while being confined
in those awful conditions. It's just a powerful
testament to the game's ability to provide hope
and structure, even in the darkest, most divided
times. This offseason is already defined by strategic
aggression and these huge financial gambles.
We covered the exorbitant cost of the Blue Jays'
bid for the World Series with that Dylan Cease
signing, and we analyzed whether that massive
risk is worth the potential reward. We looked
at the radical shifting dynamics for the Yankees
and Mets as they chased top bats and the necessary
financial cleanup that teams like the Angels
have to do just to participate in the superstar
market. The recurring theme really is that battle
between the high spending teams and disciplined
organizational strategy. Hal Steinbrenner argued
that money doesn't guarantee success, pointing
to past failures. Yet the sheer dominance of
the Dodgers, fueled by money, is actively challenging
their competitors. It's even inspiring guys like
Tatsuya Imai to declare he wants to take them
down rather than join them. The ultimate question
isn't just how much money is spent, but how effectively
that money is used to fix your weaknesses. We've
seen the Mariners have a historic season carried
by a 60 home run catcher. And now they face the
challenge of balancing that winning core. with
debuting a huge wave of hitting prospects, a
real strategic tightrope walk. And we saw the
Blue Jays, already one win away from a title,
decide to throw caution to the wind and pay an
exorbitant price for a high -risk pitcher. So
this leaves us with a final provocative thought
for you to consider. When a team that is already
this close, like the Mariners or the Blue Jays,
decides to throw caution to the wind and pay
whatever it takes, whether it's $210 million
for a volatile arm or a potential $400 million
contract for a superstar outfielder, will that
financial risk always justify the ultimate reward
of lifting the trophy? Or will the cost of a
bad contract ultimately sink a legitimate contender?
The 2026 season may soon give us the answer.