WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.740 The World Series fireworks have settled. The 00:00:01.740 --> 00:00:06.080 parade route is clean. But the hot stove season 00:00:06.080 --> 00:00:08.460 is already blazing. Oh, it's definitely here. 00:00:08.699 --> 00:00:11.259 Free agency officially kicked off right after 00:00:11.259 --> 00:00:15.179 that final out on November 1st. And the baseball 00:00:15.179 --> 00:00:18.280 world has just gone from zero to 60 in record 00:00:18.280 --> 00:00:20.579 time. It's not just moving fast. It's moving 00:00:20.579 --> 00:00:23.839 violently. I mean, this offseason has proven 00:00:23.839 --> 00:00:27.769 to be genuinely chaotic. And fascinating. We've 00:00:27.769 --> 00:00:30.149 seen significant trades shaking up contenders 00:00:30.149 --> 00:00:32.530 and sellers alike. And some shocking financial 00:00:32.530 --> 00:00:34.509 decisions from a team that just won the championship. 00:00:34.810 --> 00:00:36.869 Right. And on top of all that, we have one of 00:00:36.869 --> 00:00:40.329 the deepest star -heavy free agent classes in 00:00:40.329 --> 00:00:42.490 years. That's exactly what we're going to get 00:00:42.490 --> 00:00:44.090 into today. We're going to break down the major 00:00:44.090 --> 00:00:46.490 moves that have already happened, analyze the 00:00:46.490 --> 00:00:48.850 superstars lurking on the open market. We're 00:00:48.850 --> 00:00:51.530 talking everything from $400 million outfielders 00:00:51.530 --> 00:00:53.369 to opt -out third basemen. And then there are 00:00:53.369 --> 00:00:55.600 the big names expected to be traded before. the 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:57.399 winter meetings. We're giving you the shortcut 00:00:57.399 --> 00:01:00.100 to being the most informed person at the water 00:01:00.100 --> 00:01:02.880 cooler. And I think there's a theme here driving 00:01:02.880 --> 00:01:05.700 every single decision, and that's high stakes 00:01:05.700 --> 00:01:09.019 calculated risk. Every front office is making 00:01:09.019 --> 00:01:11.859 a massive gamble right now. A huge gamble. Whether 00:01:11.859 --> 00:01:14.140 it's trading controllable assets for immediate 00:01:14.140 --> 00:01:17.359 help, trying to shed salary at the top, or, you 00:01:17.359 --> 00:01:19.700 know, gambling hundreds of millions on a player 00:01:19.700 --> 00:01:22.500 who's entering their 30s. We have to begin with 00:01:22.500 --> 00:01:26.180 a pair of shocking one -for -one veteran swaps 00:01:26.180 --> 00:01:28.659 that just set the transaction wire on fire. Yeah. 00:01:28.719 --> 00:01:31.400 First up, that middle infield maneuver between 00:01:31.400 --> 00:01:33.879 the Mets and the Rangers. Yeah, this trade was 00:01:33.879 --> 00:01:36.500 a classic example of two teams trading what they 00:01:36.500 --> 00:01:40.250 saw as depth to fill a specific, a very glaring 00:01:40.250 --> 00:01:42.409 hole. It's not a blockbuster, but it was highly 00:01:42.409 --> 00:01:44.829 sophisticated. So what was the final deal? OK, 00:01:44.890 --> 00:01:47.109 so the Mets acquired gold glove second baseman 00:01:47.109 --> 00:01:49.670 Marcus Simeon. And in return, the Rangers received 00:01:49.670 --> 00:01:52.730 veteran outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Plus some cash, 00:01:52.730 --> 00:01:54.870 I remember. Plus an additional five million dollars 00:01:54.870 --> 00:01:57.230 in cash. And that little detail is pretty important 00:01:57.230 --> 00:01:59.390 here. What makes this so interesting to me is 00:01:59.390 --> 00:02:02.390 that both players are, you know, post 30. They're 00:02:02.390 --> 00:02:06.030 carrying. Hefty multi -year contracts. And Rangers 00:02:06.030 --> 00:02:09.349 initiated this just days after making these huge 00:02:09.349 --> 00:02:11.490 cost -cutting non -tenders. Right. And you have 00:02:11.490 --> 00:02:13.370 to look at that financial context to understand 00:02:13.370 --> 00:02:16.430 the Rangers side of this. They had just non -tendered 00:02:16.430 --> 00:02:19.969 key players like Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. 00:02:19.969 --> 00:02:22.650 Which is a shocker. A huge shocker. The message 00:02:22.650 --> 00:02:26.020 was crystal clear. They need to trim fat and 00:02:26.020 --> 00:02:28.659 reshape this roster even after celebrating a 00:02:28.659 --> 00:02:30.780 World Series title. So while Nimmo's contract 00:02:30.780 --> 00:02:34.699 is long term. Was it 19 .25 million a year for 00:02:34.699 --> 00:02:37.060 five years? Exactly. The Rangers were primarily 00:02:37.060 --> 00:02:39.819 focused on shifting their entire offensive identity. 00:02:40.120 --> 00:02:42.139 They desperately needed discipline and a better 00:02:42.139 --> 00:02:44.699 hitter for average. And Nimmo provides that. 00:02:44.819 --> 00:02:47.240 He is statistically a better hitter than Simeon. 00:02:47.360 --> 00:02:50.020 His primary value lies in that on base ability, 00:02:50.280 --> 00:02:52.039 which, you know, plummeted across the league 00:02:52.039 --> 00:02:54.669 in 2025. Numbers look even better in that context. 00:02:54.909 --> 00:03:00.310 They do. Nimmo's 114 WRC plus in 2025. For listeners 00:03:00.310 --> 00:03:03.189 who are less familiar with that metric, it means 00:03:03.189 --> 00:03:05.770 he was 14 % better than the league average hitter, 00:03:05.810 --> 00:03:07.590 factoring in ballparks. That would have ranked 00:03:07.590 --> 00:03:10.610 third among Rangers regulars. Behind who? Seager 00:03:10.610 --> 00:03:13.330 and Langford. Behind only Corey Seager and Wyatt 00:03:13.330 --> 00:03:15.889 Langford. So Nimmo offers the plate discipline 00:03:15.889 --> 00:03:18.490 that Semien Garcia just didn't have. But I have 00:03:18.490 --> 00:03:20.349 to push back a little on the grade here. A C 00:03:20.349 --> 00:03:24.159 plus for the Rangers. The concerns seem, well, 00:03:24.180 --> 00:03:28.199 enormous. Nimmo is turning 33. His walk rate, 00:03:28.360 --> 00:03:30.539 which was once completely elite, it dropped off 00:03:30.539 --> 00:03:33.360 a cliff last season. And his defense. It's downshifted 00:03:33.360 --> 00:03:35.680 considerably. And the concerns are huge. You're 00:03:35.680 --> 00:03:37.340 right. That's what prevents us from being a higher 00:03:37.340 --> 00:03:40.120 graded trade for Texas. Nimmo's days as an everyday 00:03:40.120 --> 00:03:42.580 center fielder are basically over. And his arm 00:03:42.580 --> 00:03:45.000 has always been a question mark. Analysts universally 00:03:45.000 --> 00:03:48.300 call it a pop gun throwing arm. It's a significant 00:03:48.300 --> 00:03:51.900 liability in a corner outfield spot. And crucially, 00:03:52.020 --> 00:03:54.740 they lose Semien's gold glove caliber defense 00:03:54.740 --> 00:03:56.860 up the middle, which anchored their infield. 00:03:57.259 --> 00:03:59.580 This trade is really an acknowledgment that they 00:03:59.580 --> 00:04:03.080 value offense and cost savings in the outer years 00:04:03.080 --> 00:04:05.360 over maintaining that elite defensive stability. 00:04:05.659 --> 00:04:08.699 So the key for Texas is the long game. They say 00:04:08.699 --> 00:04:11.460 five and a half million in 2026 compared to Semien's 00:04:11.460 --> 00:04:13.860 contract and Nimmo's later years are lighter. 00:04:14.060 --> 00:04:16.399 It all aligns with this new focus on financial 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:19.360 austerity post championship. Precisely. It's 00:04:19.360 --> 00:04:21.839 a move designed to set up their books for maybe 00:04:21.839 --> 00:04:25.360 a deeper rebuild in 2027 or 2028, even if it 00:04:25.360 --> 00:04:27.300 feels a little jarring right now. OK, let's flip 00:04:27.300 --> 00:04:29.240 it to the Mets, who also got a C plus. Yeah. 00:04:29.360 --> 00:04:31.759 Their rationale was clearly about dramatically 00:04:31.759 --> 00:04:34.439 improving that infield defense and shaking up 00:04:34.439 --> 00:04:36.759 a core that disappointed in 25. Well, Simeon 00:04:36.759 --> 00:04:38.800 coming off a gold glove is a major defensive 00:04:38.800 --> 00:04:40.740 upgrade over Jeff McNeil, who he's essentially 00:04:40.740 --> 00:04:42.860 replacing at second base. But the true driver 00:04:42.860 --> 00:04:45.199 here is the financial flexibility that the Mets 00:04:45.199 --> 00:04:47.259 got. Even though Simeon's AEV is a little higher. 00:04:47.720 --> 00:04:50.819 It is, for luxury tax purposes. But his contract 00:04:50.819 --> 00:04:54.040 is significantly shorter. By shedding Nimmo's 00:04:54.040 --> 00:04:56.660 long -term obligation, the Mets gained critical 00:04:56.660 --> 00:04:59.560 payroll flexibility down the road. Yet acquiring 00:04:59.560 --> 00:05:03.040 a veteran infielder feels bubbling. When the 00:05:03.040 --> 00:05:05.319 Mets have this flood of high -quality prospects 00:05:05.319 --> 00:05:08.259 like Luis Anglicugna, Ronnie Mauricio, Jet Williams, 00:05:08.500 --> 00:05:11.060 all seemingly ready for the infield within the 00:05:11.060 --> 00:05:13.199 next year or two. And that's the major concern, 00:05:13.319 --> 00:05:16.009 and it's why the grade is mediocre. Semien is 00:05:16.009 --> 00:05:18.649 35 and his offensive numbers have been trending 00:05:18.649 --> 00:05:21.509 south, operating just below league average. If 00:05:21.509 --> 00:05:24.529 he blocks a wave of high ceiling prospects. This 00:05:24.529 --> 00:05:26.810 trade could become a net negative pretty quickly. 00:05:26.930 --> 00:05:29.829 Very quickly. However, the ripple effect makes 00:05:29.829 --> 00:05:32.829 this move fascinating. By trading Nimmo, the 00:05:32.829 --> 00:05:35.870 Mets opened a massive outfield vacancy. This 00:05:35.870 --> 00:05:37.949 makes their push for a top free agent like Kyle 00:05:37.949 --> 00:05:40.980 Tucker or Cody Bellinger almost inevitable. A 00:05:40.980 --> 00:05:42.800 necessary sacrifice to make room for a bigger 00:05:42.800 --> 00:05:45.680 star, perhaps. That brings us to the second major 00:05:45.680 --> 00:05:49.000 trade, the Orioles and Angels. This felt like 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:51.540 a philosophical clash between team control and 00:05:51.540 --> 00:05:54.420 immediate specific roster needs. It really was. 00:05:54.560 --> 00:05:57.019 The Orioles acquired left fielder Taylor Ward. 00:05:57.180 --> 00:05:59.699 The Angels got right hander Grayson Rodriguez. 00:05:59.959 --> 00:06:02.259 Let's start with the Angels. You gave him an 00:06:02.259 --> 00:06:05.459 A - for this. I did. This move is purely about 00:06:05.459 --> 00:06:08.339 upside for a pitching staff that has been, frankly, 00:06:08.459 --> 00:06:11.220 desolate for years. They are desperate for a 00:06:11.220 --> 00:06:14.199 true number one starter, and Rodriguez offers 00:06:14.199 --> 00:06:17.439 that potential in spades. He was ESPN's top pitching 00:06:17.439 --> 00:06:20.500 prospect back in 2022. That's an elite pedigree. 00:06:20.620 --> 00:06:24.199 Absolutely. The massive allure here is the four 00:06:24.199 --> 00:06:28.019 full years of team control remaining. His big 00:06:28.019 --> 00:06:30.300 lead results so far have been inconsistent, a 00:06:30.300 --> 00:06:34.300 97 ERA plus over 43 career starts. But the talent 00:06:34.300 --> 00:06:36.660 is undeniable. And he's coming off that injury, 00:06:36.740 --> 00:06:38.779 right? He missed a large chunk of time with a 00:06:38.779 --> 00:06:41.139 lat injury and a bone spur removal, but he is 00:06:41.139 --> 00:06:43.959 expected to be ready by spring training. For 00:06:43.959 --> 00:06:46.939 the Angels, trading a good but aging corner outfielder 00:06:46.939 --> 00:06:49.259 for four years of a potential ace is a massive 00:06:49.259 --> 00:06:51.500 gamble, but it's one they desperately need to 00:06:51.500 --> 00:06:53.759 take to restock their rotation for the long term. 00:06:53.879 --> 00:06:56.040 OK, now for the Orioles. The grade D you assigned 00:06:56.040 --> 00:06:58.980 earlier felt genuinely harsh. Why such a low 00:06:58.980 --> 00:07:01.800 narc for a contending team acquiring a 36 home 00:07:01.800 --> 00:07:04.759 run hitter? I stand by the D. Orioles GM Mike 00:07:04.759 --> 00:07:07.180 Elias stated they were chasing Ward for years, 00:07:07.420 --> 00:07:10.199 seeking outfield stability and power. So what's 00:07:10.199 --> 00:07:13.040 wrong with that? The implied rationale is a massive 00:07:13.040 --> 00:07:15.480 vote of no confidence in Grayson Rodriguez's 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:17.759 ability to live up to his hype or stay healthy 00:07:17.759 --> 00:07:20.879 long term. And that is a huge bet against a player 00:07:20.879 --> 00:07:23.660 of Rodriguez's pedigree. But Ward hit a career 00:07:23.660 --> 00:07:27.740 -high 36 homers in 2025. That's immediate production 00:07:27.740 --> 00:07:30.180 you can plug right into the lineup. It is, but 00:07:30.180 --> 00:07:33.050 let's dissect his profile. Ward is turning 32 00:07:33.050 --> 00:07:35.670 next month, placing him at the outer rim of his 00:07:35.670 --> 00:07:38.350 career prime, as one analyst put it. His skill 00:07:38.350 --> 00:07:41.329 set is narrow. He's a patient, righty slugger 00:07:41.329 --> 00:07:43.829 whose batting average has consistently plummeted. 00:07:43.850 --> 00:07:47.449 Down to what, .228 last year? Down to .228 in 00:07:47.449 --> 00:07:50.629 2025 due to a very fly ball heavy take and rake 00:07:50.629 --> 00:07:52.889 approach. Furthermore, his power profile may 00:07:52.889 --> 00:07:54.870 suffer significantly moving from the neutral 00:07:54.870 --> 00:07:57.329 climate of Anaheim to the notoriously pitcher 00:07:57.329 --> 00:07:59.730 friendly confines of Camden Yards. So the cost 00:07:59.730 --> 00:08:01.470 is just too high for the production, essentially. 00:08:02.350 --> 00:08:04.949 Exactly. Trading four years of a high ceiling 00:08:04.949 --> 00:08:07.389 pitcher like Rodriguez for one expensive view 00:08:07.389 --> 00:08:09.970 of Ward, who's projected at 12 to 14 million, 00:08:10.170 --> 00:08:12.949 is highly questionable. Especially since the 00:08:12.949 --> 00:08:15.170 Orioles already have a log jam at first base 00:08:15.170 --> 00:08:19.189 and DH with Mountcastle, Mayo and Basalo. Elias 00:08:19.189 --> 00:08:21.410 is banking on being right that Ward stabilizes 00:08:21.410 --> 00:08:24.329 the lineup and Rodriguez flames out. This trade 00:08:24.329 --> 00:08:27.170 is the definition of a high risk, low grade gamble. 00:08:27.639 --> 00:08:29.939 by the Orioles front office. Moving from the 00:08:29.939 --> 00:08:32.659 surprising trades to the even more massive free 00:08:32.659 --> 00:08:35.519 agent market, the bidding war for the superstars 00:08:35.519 --> 00:08:38.240 is about to define the next half decade for several 00:08:38.240 --> 00:08:40.700 contenders. And we have to start with the undisputed 00:08:40.700 --> 00:08:43.710 top target, Kyle Tucker. Tucker is the consensus 00:08:43.710 --> 00:08:46.330 jewel of this class. The market projects a truly 00:08:46.330 --> 00:08:50.429 seismic contract, 11 years, around $418 million. 00:08:50.909 --> 00:08:53.669 Wow. That price point immediately limits the 00:08:53.669 --> 00:08:55.750 pool of bidders, but the key factor here, and 00:08:55.750 --> 00:08:58.870 the risk, is his age. He's entering his age 29 00:08:58.870 --> 00:09:00.929 season, which is older than most players who 00:09:00.929 --> 00:09:04.230 secure those $300 million plus contracts. Precisely. 00:09:04.809 --> 00:09:06.990 Historically, those deals are reserved for players 00:09:06.990 --> 00:09:10.549 entering their age 26 or 27 season. Only Aaron 00:09:10.549 --> 00:09:12.509 Judge, Tree Turner, and... and Manny Machado 00:09:12.509 --> 00:09:14.990 have secured contracts of this magnitude starting 00:09:14.990 --> 00:09:18.049 at age 29 or later. The length is designed to 00:09:18.049 --> 00:09:20.090 buy the final years of his 30s, which is where 00:09:20.090 --> 00:09:23.049 all the risk lies. But, you know, he is a rare 00:09:23.049 --> 00:09:25.570 five -tool player who blends high -end hitting, 00:09:25.750 --> 00:09:28.690 power, speed, and gold -glove caliber defense. 00:09:29.090 --> 00:09:33.409 The interest is intense. The Yankees, Dodgers, 00:09:33.570 --> 00:09:36.950 Giants, Orioles have all expressed interest, 00:09:37.029 --> 00:09:39.029 but some believe the Toronto Blue Jays are the 00:09:39.029 --> 00:09:42.220 favorites. Why the Jays? Toronto is firmly in 00:09:42.220 --> 00:09:44.600 win now mode and they have significant financial 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:47.580 flexibility coming up. Major contracts for key 00:09:47.580 --> 00:09:49.559 veterans like Kevin Gossman and George Springer 00:09:49.559 --> 00:09:52.740 are expiring after 2026. Go Bell have room. This 00:09:52.740 --> 00:09:55.019 gives them both the motivation, a closing window 00:09:55.019 --> 00:09:57.240 to maximize their current core, and the eventual 00:09:57.240 --> 00:10:00.240 financial space to absorb Tucker's massive AAV. 00:10:00.500 --> 00:10:02.659 The commitment would be steep, pairing Tucker's 00:10:02.659 --> 00:10:04.759 contract with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s expected 00:10:04.759 --> 00:10:06.639 half -billion -dollar extension, but it shows 00:10:06.639 --> 00:10:08.620 the Jays are serious about catching the Yankees. 00:10:08.720 --> 00:10:10.340 Let's break down the big money spenders in the 00:10:10.340 --> 00:10:13.639 Tucker pursuit. The Dodgers have $58 million 00:10:13.639 --> 00:10:17.039 under their 2025 payroll and a desperate need 00:10:17.039 --> 00:10:19.659 in the outfield. Desperate is the right word. 00:10:19.899 --> 00:10:23.080 Their left fielders combined for a truly dismal 00:10:23.080 --> 00:10:28.299 .229, .31 sieve, .385 slash line last season. 00:10:28.639 --> 00:10:30.980 That's just unacceptable for a contender. If 00:10:30.980 --> 00:10:33.220 they land Tucker, they immediately transform 00:10:33.220 --> 00:10:35.399 their outfield from a liability to a strength. 00:10:35.600 --> 00:10:37.960 And the Mets, post -Nemo trade, now have that 00:10:37.960 --> 00:10:40.860 open outfield spot and $87 million under their 00:10:40.860 --> 00:10:43.409 payroll. The Mets have the money, but their priorities 00:10:43.409 --> 00:10:46.350 are, they're fractured. They are juggling the 00:10:46.350 --> 00:10:48.269 potential re -signing of Pete Alonso and closer 00:10:48.269 --> 00:10:50.570 Edwin Diaz, plus they desperately need rotation 00:10:50.570 --> 00:10:53.509 help. Tucker fills a need, but he might not be 00:10:53.509 --> 00:10:55.169 their most pressing need, especially if they 00:10:55.169 --> 00:10:57.730 can pivot to a slightly cheaper star. The Yankees, 00:10:57.730 --> 00:11:00.129 interestingly, seem crowded with Judge Grisham 00:11:00.129 --> 00:11:03.110 Dominguez and the prospect Spencer Jones. Why 00:11:03.110 --> 00:11:05.419 would they pursue Tucker? Depth and versatility 00:11:05.419 --> 00:11:08.059 are always key, but realistically, the Yankees 00:11:08.059 --> 00:11:10.559 may be using Tucker as leverage against the agents 00:11:10.559 --> 00:11:12.399 for Cody Billinger, who they seem to prefer. 00:11:12.980 --> 00:11:15.759 However, if they land Tucker, it means they are 00:11:15.759 --> 00:11:18.539 willing to absorb a massive luxury tax hit and 00:11:18.539 --> 00:11:20.899 potentially trade Grisham or move Dominguez to 00:11:20.899 --> 00:11:23.039 the bench to start the year. Okay, shifting to 00:11:23.039 --> 00:11:25.399 first base and designated hitter, Pete Alonso, 00:11:25.440 --> 00:11:28.059 the polar bear, is coming off a massive rebound 00:11:28.059 --> 00:11:31.139 season. Absolutely massive. His 2025 campaign 00:11:31.139 --> 00:11:37.639 slashing .272, .347, .524, with 38 home runs 00:11:37.639 --> 00:11:41.360 and 126 RBIs, was a significant leap from his 00:11:41.360 --> 00:11:44.440 dip in 2024. He improved his approach and durability, 00:11:44.700 --> 00:11:47.379 playing 162 games for the second straight season. 00:11:47.659 --> 00:11:50.340 But the shadow over his massive offensive output 00:11:50.340 --> 00:11:52.980 remains his defense. It's a liability, plain 00:11:52.980 --> 00:11:55.580 and simple. Alonzo consistently ranks among the 00:11:55.580 --> 00:11:58.139 worst defensive first basemen in baseball. For 00:11:58.139 --> 00:11:59.980 our listeners unfamiliar with defensive metrics, 00:12:00.299 --> 00:12:02.659 his minus -9 defensive record saved and minus 00:12:02.659 --> 00:12:05.240 nine outs above average means that just by his 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:07.299 range and positioning, he cost the Mets nine 00:12:07.299 --> 00:12:09.659 runs compared to an average first baseman. So 00:12:09.659 --> 00:12:11.580 his willingness to DH is key. It's essential 00:12:11.580 --> 00:12:13.820 to his market value. Which brings us directly 00:12:13.820 --> 00:12:16.700 to the Red Sox, who have a glaring need for a 00:12:16.700 --> 00:12:18.799 right -handed power bat after the Rafael Divers 00:12:18.799 --> 00:12:21.419 trade. The fit is perfect, almost too perfect. 00:12:21.919 --> 00:12:24.139 Boston's brass has made it clear they need an 00:12:24.139 --> 00:12:26.259 accomplished, right -handed, middle -of -the 00:12:26.259 --> 00:12:29.059 -order bat. Alonzo could split first base and 00:12:29.059 --> 00:12:31.779 DH duties with the returning Tristan Casas, providing 00:12:31.779 --> 00:12:34.860 the raw power Boston has lacked. This is the 00:12:34.860 --> 00:12:37.399 exact type of high -impact signing the Red Sox 00:12:37.399 --> 00:12:39.860 need to prove they are serious about returning 00:12:39.860 --> 00:12:42.639 to contention. Any other teams in the mix? The 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:45.700 Reds are a strong fit. Great American Ballpark 00:12:45.700 --> 00:12:48.559 is a notorious hitter's haven, and they desperately 00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:51.000 need a middle -of -the -order power bat. The 00:12:51.000 --> 00:12:53.120 Phillies are interested, but only if they fail 00:12:53.120 --> 00:12:56.100 to re -sign Kyle Schwarber, as Alonzo's righty 00:12:56.100 --> 00:12:58.720 bat balances their heavily left -handed lineup. 00:12:58.879 --> 00:13:00.940 And the Orioles. And the Orioles, despite their 00:13:00.940 --> 00:13:04.000 one BDH logjam, expressed interest, meaning they'd 00:13:04.000 --> 00:13:06.120 have to clear out someone like Anthony Santander 00:13:06.120 --> 00:13:09.200 or Ryan Mountcastle via trade first. So if Tucker 00:13:09.200 --> 00:13:11.200 is the Rolls Royce of this free Asian class, 00:13:11.659 --> 00:13:14.750 Cody Bellinger is the high -end SUV. Versatile, 00:13:14.850 --> 00:13:17.990 slightly cheaper, and extremely efficient. That's 00:13:17.990 --> 00:13:20.889 Kyle Tucker Lite, to a T. Bellinger, offers immense 00:13:20.889 --> 00:13:23.690 positional versatility. He can play all three 00:13:23.690 --> 00:13:26.350 outfield spots, first base, and DH, and has a 00:13:26.350 --> 00:13:30.740 much lower projected contract. Six years, 165 00:13:30.740 --> 00:13:33.379 million. And he proved he can hit in New York. 00:13:33.500 --> 00:13:38.419 He slashed .281, .338, .477 with 29 home runs 00:13:38.419 --> 00:13:41.360 for the Yankees in 2025, demonstrating an ability 00:13:41.360 --> 00:13:43.899 to make contact, and he is a superior overall 00:13:43.899 --> 00:13:46.820 fielder and runner compared to Tucker. The Yankees 00:13:46.820 --> 00:13:48.620 have publicly stated he's their top priority, 00:13:48.879 --> 00:13:51.080 which shows they favor that versatility and proven 00:13:51.080 --> 00:13:53.259 success in the Bronx. And a reunion with the 00:13:53.259 --> 00:13:55.460 Dodgers is highly plausible, given their need 00:13:55.460 --> 00:13:57.799 for outfield help and his history there. Other 00:13:57.799 --> 00:13:59.759 fits include the Tigers, Rangers, and crucially 00:13:59.759 --> 00:14:02.340 the Mets. If the Mets lose Alonzo, Bellinger 00:14:02.340 --> 00:14:05.320 is the perfect hybrid 1BCF replacement, fitting 00:14:05.320 --> 00:14:07.399 the hoid created by the Nimmo trade. And what 00:14:07.399 --> 00:14:10.139 about the pure DH power specialist Kyle Schwarber? 00:14:10.220 --> 00:14:13.299 He finished second in NL MVP voting and is projected 00:14:13.299 --> 00:14:16.559 for four years, $128 million. The Phillies' top 00:14:16.559 --> 00:14:19.159 priority is re -signing Schwarber, their DH and 00:14:19.159 --> 00:14:21.879 clubhouse leader. If he somehow slips away, the 00:14:21.879 --> 00:14:24.299 Cincinnati Reds are the absolute perfect alternative. 00:14:24.720 --> 00:14:27.519 The Ohio connection. He's an Ohio native. His 00:14:27.519 --> 00:14:30.580 extreme pull power plays perfectly in Cincinnati's 00:14:30.580 --> 00:14:34.100 ballpark, and the Reds' DHs ranked 22nd in the 00:14:34.100 --> 00:14:37.700 majors in OPS last season. He fills a major void 00:14:37.700 --> 00:14:39.919 for them. Okay, moving over to the hot corner. 00:14:40.120 --> 00:14:43.059 The complexity of Alex Bregman's decision to 00:14:43.059 --> 00:14:45.759 opt out of the final two years and $80 million 00:14:45.759 --> 00:14:49.440 of his deal is fascinating. It signals confidence, 00:14:49.679 --> 00:14:52.600 doesn't it? Bregman is the premier third baseman 00:14:52.600 --> 00:14:54.779 available, bringing not just offensive production 00:14:54.779 --> 00:14:58.019 but tremendous leadership value. David Ortiz 00:14:58.019 --> 00:15:00.519 himself has championed Bregman's ability to stabilize 00:15:00.519 --> 00:15:03.379 a clubhouse. The opt -out means he wants a long 00:15:03.379 --> 00:15:05.519 -term deal that guarantees him security well 00:15:05.519 --> 00:15:07.799 into his 30s. Which teams are going to pay that 00:15:07.799 --> 00:15:09.799 premium for that kind of player? The Red Sox 00:15:09.799 --> 00:15:12.799 love him and view him as a primary target, even 00:15:12.799 --> 00:15:15.179 with a strong prospect, Marcelo Mayer, waiting 00:15:15.179 --> 00:15:18.200 in the farm system. Bregman's established leadership 00:15:18.200 --> 00:15:20.899 and playoff experience are highly valued in Boston. 00:15:21.100 --> 00:15:23.779 But the competition will be stiff. Very stiff? 00:15:24.179 --> 00:15:27.139 The Tigers and Cubs, who pursued him aggressively 00:15:27.139 --> 00:15:29.580 last year, and the Phillies, who could slide 00:15:29.580 --> 00:15:32.320 Bregman in at third base to replace Alec Boehm, 00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:34.559 adding a more impactful hitter to their closing 00:15:34.559 --> 00:15:36.620 contention window. We should quickly touch on 00:15:36.620 --> 00:15:39.299 the middle infield options, specifically Bo Bichette. 00:15:39.549 --> 00:15:41.710 Bichette is an ideal target for the Dodgers. 00:15:41.789 --> 00:15:43.590 I mean, he checks all the boxes. First, they 00:15:43.590 --> 00:15:45.610 need an upgrade at second base where their players 00:15:45.610 --> 00:15:49.629 collectively hit a meager .239 last season. Second, 00:15:50.309 --> 00:15:52.929 he's a high average hitter, a need the Dodgers 00:15:52.929 --> 00:15:54.830 felt keenly when their offense stalled in the 00:15:54.830 --> 00:15:58.250 postseason. Third, he's right in his age 28 prime. 00:15:58.830 --> 00:16:01.809 He's projected for a highly palatable five -year 00:16:01.809 --> 00:16:05.250 $130 million deal that leaves the Dodgers ample 00:16:05.250 --> 00:16:08.720 room to pursue pitching or a top closer. Finally, 00:16:08.820 --> 00:16:11.059 the highest risk, highest reward international 00:16:11.059 --> 00:16:14.860 star, Munataka Murakami. Murakami is truly an 00:16:14.860 --> 00:16:16.879 enigma. He's the youngest free agent available 00:16:16.879 --> 00:16:20.200 at age 26, and he has prodigious power. He holds 00:16:20.200 --> 00:16:22.279 the single -season home run record in Japan for 00:16:22.279 --> 00:16:25.080 a Japanese -born player with 56 homers in 2022. 00:16:25.720 --> 00:16:28.500 Teams are willing to bet on that raw power translating. 00:16:28.840 --> 00:16:31.059 But the risk is terrifying, especially when you 00:16:31.059 --> 00:16:33.259 look at how he handles velocity. The risk is 00:16:33.259 --> 00:16:35.899 enormous, and it stems from his plate approach. 00:16:36.730 --> 00:16:39.409 His strikeout rate has approached 30 % over the 00:16:39.409 --> 00:16:41.409 last three seasons, which will only get worse 00:16:41.409 --> 00:16:44.490 against MLB pitching. The most concerning metric, 00:16:44.590 --> 00:16:49.590 he hit just .095 against fastballs of 93 -plus 00:16:49.590 --> 00:16:52.429 miles per hour in 2025. And he'll see that on 00:16:52.429 --> 00:16:54.570 every pitch in the majors. Every single pitch. 00:16:54.769 --> 00:16:57.629 He faces a very steep learning curve. So if he 00:16:57.629 --> 00:17:00.570 adjusts, he's a perennial MVP candidate. If he 00:17:00.570 --> 00:17:03.059 doesn't, he's an expensive bust. That's why his 00:17:03.059 --> 00:17:04.960 projected contract estimates are all over the 00:17:04.960 --> 00:17:07.839 place, ranging from $80 million to $180 million. 00:17:08.099 --> 00:17:10.740 He mostly played third base in Japan, but scouts 00:17:10.740 --> 00:17:13.359 see him as a first baseman or DH due to defensive 00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:16.539 limitations. The Mets, who need power regardless 00:17:16.539 --> 00:17:19.220 of where Alonzo lands, look like early favorites 00:17:19.220 --> 00:17:21.859 per projection models. They seem willing to take 00:17:21.859 --> 00:17:24.400 that massive leap of faith. As free agency dominates 00:17:24.400 --> 00:17:26.579 the headlines, several National League organizations 00:17:26.579 --> 00:17:29.940 are signaling a fundamental shift. moving toward 00:17:29.940 --> 00:17:32.380 trading away veterans in exchange for young, 00:17:32.519 --> 00:17:35.359 controllable assets. And we have to start with 00:17:35.359 --> 00:17:37.839 the St. Louis Cardinals, who appear ready for 00:17:37.839 --> 00:17:40.460 a massive roster purge. The Cardinals are openly 00:17:40.460 --> 00:17:42.920 pivoting to a youth movement, and they have the 00:17:42.920 --> 00:17:45.299 most attractive and, frankly, complicated trade 00:17:45.299 --> 00:17:49.619 chips available. First up, Nolan Arenado, a five 00:17:49.619 --> 00:17:52.299 -star trade probability. Even after disappointing 00:17:52.299 --> 00:17:55.019 season, the eight -time All -Star still commands 00:17:55.019 --> 00:17:58.230 huge attention. He does, but the context is everything. 00:17:58.450 --> 00:18:01.069 He's coming off the worst season of his 13 -year 00:18:01.069 --> 00:18:03.970 career with .9 war, though his underlying metrics 00:18:03.970 --> 00:18:07.710 in 2024 were solid at 3 .2 F war. So what's the 00:18:07.710 --> 00:18:09.589 key to moving them? The key is the Cardinals' 00:18:09.609 --> 00:18:11.619 ownership. which is open to covering the remainder 00:18:11.619 --> 00:18:13.819 of his contract, $31 million over two years, 00:18:13.980 --> 00:18:17.200 to facilitate a trade. And crucially, Arenado 00:18:17.200 --> 00:18:19.359 is willing to waive his no -trade clause for 00:18:19.359 --> 00:18:21.880 more clubs than he was last winter. So by eating 00:18:21.880 --> 00:18:24.240 that salary, St. Louis turns a potential obligation 00:18:24.240 --> 00:18:26.880 into a really attractive trade asset. Who are 00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:29.400 the likely buyers? You're looking at teams looking 00:18:29.400 --> 00:18:32.500 for a short -term, high -impact veteran presence. 00:18:32.819 --> 00:18:37.119 The Red Sox, Mets, Mariners, Tigers, Diamondbacks, 00:18:37.359 --> 00:18:39.880 Angels, and even the Pirates. A contender might 00:18:39.880 --> 00:18:42.160 gamble that he has one more productive, gold 00:18:42.160 --> 00:18:44.880 -glove caliber year left, especially if they 00:18:44.880 --> 00:18:47.220 are only paying him a fraction of his total salary. 00:18:47.539 --> 00:18:49.700 Another five -star trade candidate from St. Louis 00:18:49.700 --> 00:18:52.619 is Brendan Donovan, the versatile utility player. 00:18:52.880 --> 00:18:56.559 Donovan is gold in modern baseball. He's inexpensive, 00:18:56.920 --> 00:19:00.799 projected at $5 .75 million for 2026, and controllable 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:03.799 through 2027. His defensive versatility is elite. 00:19:03.940 --> 00:19:06.099 He plays multiple infield and outfield positions 00:19:06.099 --> 00:19:08.220 at an average or better clip. Every contender 00:19:08.220 --> 00:19:10.279 wants a guy like that. Every single one. For 00:19:10.279 --> 00:19:12.839 a team building a deep roster, that utility value 00:19:12.839 --> 00:19:14.960 is highly sought after by almost every contender. 00:19:15.160 --> 00:19:18.359 The Mariners, Royals, Dodgers, Red Sox, Guardians, 00:19:18.599 --> 00:19:21.400 Astros, and Yankees. And St. Louis also has starting 00:19:21.400 --> 00:19:24.289 pitching to offer, like Sonny Gray. Gray is also 00:19:24.289 --> 00:19:26.630 a five -star probability, which just confirms 00:19:26.630 --> 00:19:28.950 the severity of the Cardinals' roster fire sale. 00:19:29.369 --> 00:19:33.609 He's 36 and owed a significant $40 million, including 00:19:33.609 --> 00:19:35.970 the option buyout, meaning the Cardinals will 00:19:35.970 --> 00:19:38.089 certainly need to kick in some cash to move him. 00:19:38.670 --> 00:19:41.650 Given St. Louis' youth prioritization, trading 00:19:41.650 --> 00:19:44.130 an aging, highly -paid starter for prospects 00:19:44.130 --> 00:19:46.869 is just a logical step. In the fits. The Red 00:19:46.869 --> 00:19:49.130 Sox, Phillies, and Giants all needing rotation 00:19:49.130 --> 00:19:52.049 stability. And Wilson Contreras, under contract 00:19:52.049 --> 00:19:54.460 for two more seasons. Contreras is expected to 00:19:54.460 --> 00:19:56.480 be shopped aggressively. He's under contract 00:19:56.480 --> 00:20:00.259 for two seasons at $36 .5 million total, plus 00:20:00.259 --> 00:20:03.759 a 2028 option. There are persistent rumors linking 00:20:03.759 --> 00:20:06.279 him to the Red Sox, fueled by the presence of 00:20:06.279 --> 00:20:08.940 former Boston CBO Shane Bloom, who's now in the 00:20:08.940 --> 00:20:10.859 Cardinals front office. Moving to the Milwaukee 00:20:10.859 --> 00:20:15.240 Brewers, who just won 97 games, it seems inconceivable 00:20:15.240 --> 00:20:17.599 they would trade stars. But this is their historical 00:20:17.599 --> 00:20:20.400 pattern, isn't it? This is the Brewers' modus 00:20:20.400 --> 00:20:23.240 operandi acquire controllable assets by trading 00:20:23.240 --> 00:20:26.559 stars who are nearing free agency. Freddy Peralta, 00:20:26.740 --> 00:20:29.279 despite the team's success, is a prime three 00:20:29.279 --> 00:20:32.079 -star trade candidate. He only has one year and 00:20:32.079 --> 00:20:34.660 $8 million remaining on his contract. That makes 00:20:34.660 --> 00:20:37.519 him extremely attractive. Extremely. Especially 00:20:37.519 --> 00:20:39.740 to buyers who need a high -end starter without 00:20:39.740 --> 00:20:42.480 a decade -long commitment. The list is long. 00:20:43.150 --> 00:20:46.509 Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, Astros, Phillies, 00:20:46.549 --> 00:20:49.269 Padres, Giants, and D -backs. And they also brought 00:20:49.269 --> 00:20:52.190 back Woodruff. The Brewers also complicated things 00:20:52.190 --> 00:20:54.630 slightly by bringing back veteran Brandon Woodruff 00:20:54.630 --> 00:20:57.650 on a one -year $22 million qualifying offer, 00:20:57.890 --> 00:21:00.609 giving them some rotation security, even if they 00:21:00.609 --> 00:21:03.069 do move Peralta. Next, the Miami Marlins are 00:21:03.069 --> 00:21:05.190 looking to shed salary and leverage their pitching 00:21:05.190 --> 00:21:07.990 depth, starting with former Cy Young winner Sandy 00:21:07.990 --> 00:21:10.660 Alcantara. Alcantara is a four -star probability. 00:21:11.039 --> 00:21:13.759 The Marlins would love to shed his $19 .3 million 00:21:13.759 --> 00:21:17.059 salary for 2026. He struggled significantly in 00:21:17.059 --> 00:21:19.119 his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, 00:21:19.420 --> 00:21:22.640 posting a 5 .36 ERA. But he finished strong. 00:21:22.839 --> 00:21:25.500 He did. He finished the year strong with a 3 00:21:25.500 --> 00:21:30.039 .70 ERA over his final 10 starts. That late -season 00:21:30.039 --> 00:21:32.680 success and his Cy Young pedigree will attract 00:21:32.680 --> 00:21:34.859 serious suitors who believe he can regain his 00:21:34.859 --> 00:21:37.200 form. And they also have the younger, cheaper 00:21:37.200 --> 00:21:40.220 Edward Cabrera. Cabrera is a three -star probability 00:21:40.220 --> 00:21:43.619 and represents the highest control value. He 00:21:43.619 --> 00:21:46.960 is cheap and controllable through 2028. The Marlins 00:21:46.960 --> 00:21:49.079 could command a massive return for him due to 00:21:49.079 --> 00:21:51.599 his upside, despite his injury history limiting 00:21:51.599 --> 00:21:54.200 him to over 100 innings just once in his career. 00:21:54.720 --> 00:21:57.339 He is an excellent buy -low candidate for teams 00:21:57.339 --> 00:21:59.940 willing to manage his workload. Like who? Think 00:21:59.940 --> 00:22:03.400 the Orioles, Red Sox, Cubs, and Astros. Let's 00:22:03.400 --> 00:22:05.059 hit the rest of the NL trade targets quickly, 00:22:05.160 --> 00:22:08.170 starting with Ketel Marte in Arizona. Marte is 00:22:08.170 --> 00:22:11.650 a three -star probability. He is an NL MVP finalist 00:22:11.650 --> 00:22:14.170 and provides elite offensive production. However, 00:22:14.369 --> 00:22:16.670 there are reports suggesting some clubhouse friction. 00:22:16.769 --> 00:22:18.869 What kind of friction? Specifically, he reportedly 00:22:18.869 --> 00:22:21.269 rubbed some teammates the wrong way by asking 00:22:21.269 --> 00:22:23.410 for days off during important late -season games. 00:22:24.109 --> 00:22:26.369 If the D -backs believe this is causing a divided 00:22:26.369 --> 00:22:28.950 clubhouse, they could move him for a massive 00:22:28.950 --> 00:22:31.349 haul, given his team -friendly contract for the 00:22:31.349 --> 00:22:34.589 next two seasons. Potential fits? Red Sox, Blue 00:22:34.589 --> 00:22:37.829 Jays, Royals, Mariners, and Dodgers. What about 00:22:37.829 --> 00:22:40.759 Mackenzie Gore in Washington? a controllable 00:22:40.759 --> 00:22:43.599 lefty ace. Gore is a three -star probability. 00:22:43.900 --> 00:22:46.460 He's an all -star left -hander, only 26, and 00:22:46.460 --> 00:22:49.539 controllable through 2027. The Nationals are 00:22:49.539 --> 00:22:51.339 in a perpetual rebuild, and if they feel the 00:22:51.339 --> 00:22:53.799 timeline is stalling, Gore is their best trade 00:22:53.799 --> 00:22:56.200 ship. The Tigers are rumored to have the prospect 00:22:56.200 --> 00:22:59.119 capital, Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney, Justin Henry 00:22:59.119 --> 00:23:02.240 Malloy, that Washington might covet. And finally, 00:23:02.339 --> 00:23:05.390 Alec Boehm from the Phillies. Boehm is a four 00:23:05.390 --> 00:23:07.829 -star probability. He's entering his final year 00:23:07.829 --> 00:23:09.609 of arbitration and has been rumored to be on 00:23:09.609 --> 00:23:12.009 the trade block for years. After taking a defensive 00:23:12.009 --> 00:23:14.509 step back in 2025, the Phillies could leverage 00:23:14.509 --> 00:23:16.470 him to acquire pitching or bullpen help before 00:23:16.470 --> 00:23:18.529 potential departures like Schwarber and Suarez 00:23:18.529 --> 00:23:20.910 occur, maximizing his value before he becomes 00:23:20.910 --> 00:23:23.400 too expensive. Beyond the blockbuster names, 00:23:23.619 --> 00:23:26.180 we need to dive into some of the key organizational 00:23:26.180 --> 00:23:29.000 philosophies, starting with the New York Yankees 00:23:29.000 --> 00:23:32.579 and the hilarious corporate doublespeak coming 00:23:32.579 --> 00:23:34.799 out of the Steinbrenner regime regarding their 00:23:34.799 --> 00:23:37.660 payroll. Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner admitted 00:23:37.660 --> 00:23:39.859 publicly that lowering the payroll from their 00:23:39.859 --> 00:23:44.019 current $319 million would be ideal. However, 00:23:44.059 --> 00:23:46.180 he immediately followed that up by insisting 00:23:46.180 --> 00:23:48.779 that lowering it is unlikely if a beneficial 00:23:48.779 --> 00:23:51.750 deal arises. That sounds like a man trying to 00:23:51.750 --> 00:23:53.890 talk to the accountants and the fan base at the 00:23:53.890 --> 00:23:57.369 exact same time. What does unsustainable actually 00:23:57.369 --> 00:24:00.019 mean in the context of their payroll? It means 00:24:00.019 --> 00:24:02.960 they are facing unprecedented luxury tax penalties. 00:24:03.279 --> 00:24:06.579 The Yankees 2026 payroll is already estimated 00:24:06.579 --> 00:24:09.859 at $278 million before signing anyone. Before 00:24:09.859 --> 00:24:12.700 anyone. If they resign their top priority, Cody 00:24:12.700 --> 00:24:15.579 Bellinger, they instantly vault past that $300 00:24:15.579 --> 00:24:18.279 million mark and into the highest penalty tiers, 00:24:18.519 --> 00:24:21.319 which Steinbrenner previously labeled unsustainable. 00:24:21.420 --> 00:24:24.200 So what's the message? The message is that while 00:24:24.200 --> 00:24:27.059 they are publicly sensitive about the cost, they 00:24:27.059 --> 00:24:29.900 will blow past that mark if they feel Bellinger 00:24:29.900 --> 00:24:31.859 or Tucker is the missing piece to win a championship. 00:24:32.259 --> 00:24:34.960 It's a fascinating high wire act for general 00:24:34.960 --> 00:24:37.720 manager Brian Cashman. Moving to the Dodgers, 00:24:37.759 --> 00:24:41.099 we have to acknowledge manager Dave Roberts celebrating 00:24:41.099 --> 00:24:44.609 10 years at the helm. A phenomenal run. Roberts 00:24:44.609 --> 00:24:47.150 boasts the best winning percentage in MLB history 00:24:47.150 --> 00:24:51.369 at .621 for managers with a minimum of 315 games, 00:24:51.710 --> 00:24:54.390 three World Series titles, and five appearances 00:24:54.390 --> 00:24:57.349 in the big dance. That consistency is virtually 00:24:57.349 --> 00:24:59.750 unmatched in the modern era. But even with their 00:24:59.750 --> 00:25:02.289 stellar roster, they made a highly nuanced non 00:25:02.289 --> 00:25:05.029 -tender move, letting go of reliever Evan Phillips, 00:25:05.210 --> 00:25:08.430 who was their closer, in 23 and 24. This is a 00:25:08.430 --> 00:25:10.950 shooed financial strategy. Phillips was projected 00:25:10.950 --> 00:25:14.240 to earn $6 .1 million in arbitration. The rationale 00:25:14.240 --> 00:25:16.319 for non -tendering was his recovery from Tommy 00:25:16.319 --> 00:25:18.420 John surgery, which will likely keep him out 00:25:18.420 --> 00:25:21.079 for a large portion of the 2026 season. So they 00:25:21.079 --> 00:25:23.839 avoid that arbitration hit. Exactly. By non -tendering 00:25:23.839 --> 00:25:26.799 him, they avoid that 2026 hit, but they still 00:25:26.799 --> 00:25:29.039 want him back. Which is the twist. That's the 00:25:29.039 --> 00:25:31.799 twist. The Dodgers express mutual interest in 00:25:31.799 --> 00:25:34.000 bringing him back after he throws off the mound, 00:25:34.160 --> 00:25:37.160 likely on a lower contract or a long -term deal 00:25:37.160 --> 00:25:40.220 that backloads the money once he's healthy. It 00:25:40.220 --> 00:25:42.480 reduces their immediate financial burden while 00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:45.000 retaining a talented long -term option. It's 00:25:45.000 --> 00:25:47.420 a high -level chess move. It is. And naturally, 00:25:47.640 --> 00:25:50.019 the NL powerhouse Cubs are already interested 00:25:50.019 --> 00:25:52.740 in Phillips should the Dodgers fail to lure him 00:25:52.740 --> 00:25:56.279 back. Let's circle back to the AL West. The Rangers' 00:25:56.460 --> 00:25:58.920 cost -cutting moves are the talk of the division. 00:25:59.359 --> 00:26:02.039 They non -tendered Adoles Garcia, which is a 00:26:02.039 --> 00:26:05.819 $12 .1 million projection, Jonah Heim at $6 million, 00:26:06.039 --> 00:26:09.440 and Josh Stiesbors. This move dramatically aids 00:26:09.440 --> 00:26:11.839 their goal of reshuffling while reining in the 00:26:11.839 --> 00:26:14.400 spending. It just confirms that the semi -animo 00:26:14.400 --> 00:26:16.900 trade was part of a larger plan to clear salary 00:26:16.900 --> 00:26:19.720 and gain flexibility, even if it means weakening 00:26:19.720 --> 00:26:22.119 the roster that just won the title. On the opposite 00:26:22.119 --> 00:26:24.380 coast, the Seattle Mariners are finally showing 00:26:24.380 --> 00:26:26.380 financial commitment by locking up their first 00:26:26.380 --> 00:26:29.299 base spot. Re -signing Josh Naylor to a five 00:26:29.299 --> 00:26:33.579 -year, $92 .5 million deal was massive. It solves 00:26:33.579 --> 00:26:35.519 a first base problem they've had for nearly 20 00:26:35.519 --> 00:26:38.079 years. That's a huge relief for a franchise that 00:26:38.079 --> 00:26:40.200 struggled to find stability there. But they still 00:26:40.200 --> 00:26:42.359 have work to do. They still need work at second 00:26:42.359 --> 00:26:45.339 and third and have several Rule 5 eligible prospects, 00:26:45.660 --> 00:26:47.740 including Michael Morales and Victor Labrada, 00:26:47.900 --> 00:26:50.039 that they have to consider protecting, which 00:26:50.039 --> 00:26:52.619 adds another layer of complexity to their offseason. 00:26:52.859 --> 00:26:55.640 And the Angels made a bizarre managerial move 00:26:55.640 --> 00:26:58.559 alongside. their big trade. Yeah, hiring former 00:26:58.559 --> 00:27:01.160 catcher Kurt Suzuki as manager on an unusual 00:27:01.160 --> 00:27:03.980 one -year contract shows a complete lack of long 00:27:03.980 --> 00:27:06.700 -term commitment. It just suggests the team is 00:27:06.700 --> 00:27:09.839 still in flux and operating year to year, prioritizing 00:27:09.839 --> 00:27:12.039 plug -and -play veterans and prospects over a 00:27:12.039 --> 00:27:15.240 structured organizational plan. Now we get to 00:27:15.240 --> 00:27:18.140 maybe the most complex non -player story of the 00:27:18.140 --> 00:27:21.440 offseason, the impending impact of the automated 00:27:21.440 --> 00:27:23.579 ball strike challenge system, or the RoboZone, 00:27:23.740 --> 00:27:26.160 on the value of the catcher position. This is 00:27:26.160 --> 00:27:29.740 a paradigm shift. The ABS challenge system, which 00:27:29.740 --> 00:27:32.500 relies on technology but allows teams a limited 00:27:32.500 --> 00:27:35.460 number of challenges, could fundamentally redefine 00:27:35.460 --> 00:27:38.240 the most valued defensive skill for catchers. 00:27:38.339 --> 00:27:41.519 Right. Traditional wisdom says an elite catcher 00:27:41.519 --> 00:27:45.500 is an elite pitchframer. Someone who subtly manipulates 00:27:45.500 --> 00:27:47.940 the ball strike zone, turning balls into strikes. 00:27:48.099 --> 00:27:51.779 Exactly. Pitch framing occurs primarily in that 00:27:51.779 --> 00:27:54.539 shadow zone, the area just outside the conventional 00:27:54.539 --> 00:27:58.119 strike zone. If the system is near perfect, traditional 00:27:58.119 --> 00:28:00.839 pitch framing diminishes in value because correcting 00:28:00.839 --> 00:28:03.480 those egregious errors will reduce the advantage 00:28:03.480 --> 00:28:05.819 gained by elite framers. And we saw the data 00:28:05.819 --> 00:28:08.759 from spring training. We did. 2 .6 % of calls 00:28:08.759 --> 00:28:11.420 were challenged, with batters initiating 4 .4 00:28:11.420 --> 00:28:17.599 % and the defense 1%. So if we extrapolate those 00:28:17.599 --> 00:28:20.380 success rates, the offense would net, what, 744 00:28:20.380 --> 00:28:23.079 extra balls over a season? That erases roughly 00:28:23.079 --> 00:28:25.680 93 runs that were previously gained by framers. 00:28:25.759 --> 00:28:27.740 That sounds like a death blow to the pitch framing 00:28:27.740 --> 00:28:30.119 catcher. That's the prevailing simplified thought. 00:28:30.440 --> 00:28:32.660 But here is the critical counterpoint, and this 00:28:32.660 --> 00:28:35.410 is where the nuance is essential. The challenge 00:28:35.410 --> 00:28:38.029 system will make catchers who excel at probability 00:28:38.029 --> 00:28:41.109 management even more valuable. So the new elite 00:28:41.109 --> 00:28:44.109 skill isn't stealing a strike. It's knowing when 00:28:44.109 --> 00:28:46.650 the umpire missed one and correctly identifying 00:28:46.650 --> 00:28:48.990 when the challenge is worth the risk. Precisely. 00:28:49.069 --> 00:28:52.109 The best framers focus heavily on ensuring pitches 00:28:52.109 --> 00:28:54.549 within the strike zone are called strikes keeping 00:28:54.549 --> 00:28:58.529 strikes strikes. The challenge system reinforces 00:28:58.529 --> 00:29:00.930 this focus because the easiest calls to overturn 00:29:00.930 --> 00:29:03.369 are those that were clearly strikes but called 00:29:03.369 --> 00:29:06.109 balls. The catcher's job now includes deciding 00:29:06.109 --> 00:29:08.230 if the risk of a wrong challenge, which costs 00:29:08.230 --> 00:29:10.809 an out, is worth the possibility of overturning 00:29:10.809 --> 00:29:12.970 a bad call. It shifts from subtle manipulation 00:29:12.970 --> 00:29:16.660 to tactical decision making. It does. Catchers 00:29:16.660 --> 00:29:19.119 historically ran a higher overturn rate than 00:29:19.119 --> 00:29:21.579 batters in the test leagues. The catchers who 00:29:21.579 --> 00:29:23.980 master the art of convincing the manager to challenge 00:29:23.980 --> 00:29:26.359 a ball that should be a strike or advising the 00:29:26.359 --> 00:29:28.079 manager not to challenge a strike that should 00:29:28.079 --> 00:29:31.400 be a ball will hold an outsized advantage. The 00:29:31.400 --> 00:29:33.920 skill set evolves from physical framing to high 00:29:33.920 --> 00:29:37.039 speed tactical intelligence. This system makes 00:29:37.039 --> 00:29:39.240 the smart catcher, the one who knows the edges 00:29:39.240 --> 00:29:41.480 of the zone and the limitations of the technology, 00:29:41.819 --> 00:29:44.960 the most valuable commodity. Let's shift gears 00:29:44.960 --> 00:29:47.299 completely to Cooperstown, because the stakes 00:29:47.299 --> 00:29:49.299 for the Hall of Fame Contemporary Era ballot 00:29:49.299 --> 00:29:51.940 have never been higher this year, thanks to new 00:29:51.940 --> 00:29:54.259 rules that put some baseball legends at risk 00:29:54.259 --> 00:29:57.160 of permanent exclusion. This ballot is critically 00:29:57.160 --> 00:29:59.920 important. It covers players from 1980 onwards, 00:30:00.039 --> 00:30:02.839 and the 16 -person committee is set to vote soon. 00:30:03.039 --> 00:30:05.740 The ballot is absolutely stacked, featuring eight 00:30:05.740 --> 00:30:08.859 candidates who average a remarkable 74 .1 career 00:30:08.859 --> 00:30:11.359 baseball reference war. What exactly are the 00:30:11.359 --> 00:30:13.700 new rules that inject this sense of panic into 00:30:13.700 --> 00:30:16.119 the conversation? The urgency stems from the 00:30:16.119 --> 00:30:19.500 2025 rule change. Any candidate who fails to 00:30:19.500 --> 00:30:22.380 receive votes from at least five of the 16 committee 00:30:22.380 --> 00:30:25.140 members will become ineligible for the next three 00:30:25.140 --> 00:30:27.380 year cycle. And if they fail multiple times? 00:30:27.539 --> 00:30:29.559 If they fail to get five votes multiple times, 00:30:29.660 --> 00:30:31.640 they become permanently excluded from future 00:30:31.640 --> 00:30:33.680 consideration. For players who have struggled 00:30:33.680 --> 00:30:35.559 with the character clause for years, this is 00:30:35.559 --> 00:30:37.779 potentially their final lifeline. And that, of 00:30:37.779 --> 00:30:40.140 course, brings us immediately to Barry Bonds 00:30:40.140 --> 00:30:42.519 and Roger Clemens, the two candidates who define 00:30:42.519 --> 00:30:45.140 this era. Their performance cases are statistically 00:30:45.140 --> 00:30:49.299 undeniable. is the all -time leader in home runs 00:30:49.299 --> 00:30:54.099 and walks with a towering 162 .8 career BYR and 00:30:54.099 --> 00:30:57.779 seven MVP awards. Roger Clemens is third in pitching 00:30:57.779 --> 00:31:01.059 BYR, third in strikeouts, and holds an unprecedented 00:31:01.059 --> 00:31:03.920 seven Cy Young awards. I mean, performance records 00:31:03.920 --> 00:31:05.880 are clear -cut. Their statistical excellence 00:31:05.880 --> 00:31:09.190 cannot be argued. Right. The debate centers entirely 00:31:09.190 --> 00:31:12.069 on the nebulous character clause. The proponents 00:31:12.069 --> 00:31:13.829 argue that if these men are eligible for the 00:31:13.829 --> 00:31:15.809 ballot, the committee's focus must be purely 00:31:15.809 --> 00:31:17.869 on their on -field baseball accomplishments. 00:31:18.250 --> 00:31:21.210 A Hall of Fame that permanently excludes the 00:31:21.210 --> 00:31:24.029 all -time home run king and one of the top five 00:31:24.029 --> 00:31:27.430 pitchers ever feels perpetually incomplete. And 00:31:27.430 --> 00:31:29.710 it ultimately fails its mission to record the 00:31:29.710 --> 00:31:32.690 history of the sport. Exactly. So given that 00:31:32.690 --> 00:31:35.369 the 16 voters are strictly limited to three names 00:31:35.369 --> 00:31:38.069 each. And assuming Bonds and Clemens are statistical 00:31:38.069 --> 00:31:40.950 no -brainers, that leaves only one precious slot 00:31:40.950 --> 00:31:43.490 remaining for the other six candidates. We have 00:31:43.490 --> 00:31:45.529 to assess the remaining group, Gary Sheffield, 00:31:45.730 --> 00:31:49.250 Jeff Kent, Dale Murphy, Carlos Delgado, Don Mattingly, 00:31:49.329 --> 00:31:52.450 and Fernando Valenzuela. And if we apply rigorous, 00:31:52.529 --> 00:31:56.029 holistic evaluation criteria, a key trio emerges 00:31:56.029 --> 00:31:58.730 as the worthiest candidates for that final spot. 00:31:58.890 --> 00:32:01.190 Tell us about that key trio. The trio that tied 00:32:01.190 --> 00:32:03.750 for the most compelling case are Gary Sheffield, 00:32:03.910 --> 00:32:07.430 Don Mattingly, and Dale Murphy. Let's start with 00:32:07.430 --> 00:32:10.750 Sheffield. He had a borderline career B -war 00:32:10.750 --> 00:32:14.849 of 60 .5, but he reached the critical 500 home 00:32:14.849 --> 00:32:17.890 run club and showed a higher peak B -war the 00:32:17.890 --> 00:32:20.670 value of his best seven seasons than several 00:32:20.670 --> 00:32:22.710 existing Hall of Famers. Like Dave Winfield and 00:32:22.710 --> 00:32:24.990 Dave Parker. Exactly. He was just a terrifying 00:32:24.990 --> 00:32:27.269 presence at the plate. And Don Mattingly, the 00:32:27.269 --> 00:32:30.049 short career superstar. Mattingly was the 1985 00:32:30.049 --> 00:32:33.970 AL MVP, and the key to his candidacy is his peak 00:32:33.970 --> 00:32:36.769 value. His best seven seasons are comparable 00:32:36.769 --> 00:32:39.230 to Hall of Fame first baseman, who also had shorter 00:32:39.230 --> 00:32:42.950 careers, like David Ortiz and Fred McGriff. Though 00:32:42.950 --> 00:32:44.789 his career was shortened by back trouble, he 00:32:44.789 --> 00:32:47.009 was the face of the Yankees through the 80s. 00:32:47.029 --> 00:32:49.420 And Dale Murphy, the icon of integrity. Murphy 00:32:49.420 --> 00:32:52.319 had a very high peak value, ranking 18th among 00:32:52.319 --> 00:32:55.200 all centerfielders. He won back -to -back MVPs 00:32:55.200 --> 00:32:57.460 and earned five gold clubs, proving he was an 00:32:57.460 --> 00:32:59.900 exceptional all -around player. And his reputation 00:32:59.900 --> 00:33:02.200 for leadership and character is unmatched on 00:33:02.200 --> 00:33:04.500 this ballot. Before making a final pick, we must 00:33:04.500 --> 00:33:07.380 give a nod to Fernando Valenzuela. Absolutely. 00:33:07.799 --> 00:33:10.259 Valenzuela receives the extra credit consideration 00:33:10.259 --> 00:33:13.799 for his immense cultural impact. Fernando Mania 00:33:13.799 --> 00:33:16.059 was a genuine historical phenomenon in Southern 00:33:16.059 --> 00:33:18.859 California and throughout Latin America, transcending 00:33:18.859 --> 00:33:21.200 his excellent, if statistically short, of the 00:33:21.200 --> 00:33:24.119 typical standard career. His impact on the global 00:33:24.119 --> 00:33:26.859 growth of the game is undeniable. So if you, 00:33:26.880 --> 00:33:29.859 as a voter, had that single final slot after 00:33:29.859 --> 00:33:32.319 selecting Bonds and Clemens, who gets the nod 00:33:32.319 --> 00:33:34.730 among Sheffield, Mattingly, and Murphy? Based 00:33:34.730 --> 00:33:37.150 on the combination of peak value, outstanding 00:33:37.150 --> 00:33:40.670 all -around play, those five gold gloves, and 00:33:40.670 --> 00:33:43.349 his unimpeachable reputation, Dale Murphy should 00:33:43.349 --> 00:33:46.190 receive that final vote. My final ballot would 00:33:46.190 --> 00:33:48.930 be Bonds, Clemens, and Murphy securing the futures 00:33:48.930 --> 00:33:51.029 of three players who define different aspects 00:33:51.029 --> 00:33:53.170 of their era. What an incredible start to the 00:33:53.170 --> 00:33:55.369 offseason. We've seen financial austerity in 00:33:55.369 --> 00:33:58.269 Texas, aggressive gambles on control in Anaheim 00:33:58.269 --> 00:34:00.630 and Baltimore, and a free agent market gearing 00:34:00.630 --> 00:34:02.529 up for bidding wars that will shatter records. 00:34:03.069 --> 00:34:05.430 The overriding takeaway is the tension between 00:34:05.430 --> 00:34:08.769 immediate expensive impact and long term financial 00:34:08.769 --> 00:34:12.130 control. Contenders like the Rangers and Orioles 00:34:12.130 --> 00:34:14.829 are prioritizing long term flexibility and cost 00:34:14.829 --> 00:34:17.469 saving, even if it means trading a high ceiling 00:34:17.469 --> 00:34:19.889 prospect like Grayson Rodriguez. While the big 00:34:19.889 --> 00:34:22.510 market teams are willing to blow past unsustainable 00:34:22.510 --> 00:34:25.590 payroll limits to secure a superstar like Kyle 00:34:25.590 --> 00:34:28.030 Tucker or Pete Alonso. The choices made right 00:34:28.030 --> 00:34:30.309 now will define the next five years for these 00:34:30.309 --> 00:34:32.570 franchises. It's all about how different front 00:34:32.570 --> 00:34:34.929 offices weigh that value, whether they're clearing 00:34:34.929 --> 00:34:37.750 salary, gambling on upside, or redefining the 00:34:37.750 --> 00:34:39.909 role of the catcher in the age of the robo -zone. 00:34:39.989 --> 00:34:42.650 It makes for a frenetic winter. So here's a thought 00:34:42.650 --> 00:34:44.530 to leave you with, especially given those high 00:34:44.530 --> 00:34:47.670 stakes on the contemporary era ballot. Considering 00:34:47.670 --> 00:34:50.369 the new Hall of Fame rules, if Barry Bonds and 00:34:50.369 --> 00:34:52.670 Roger Clemens were to fall short of five votes 00:34:52.670 --> 00:34:54.789 on the committee ballot, forever making them 00:34:54.789 --> 00:34:57.449 ineligible for future consideration, Would the 00:34:57.449 --> 00:34:59.130 Hall of Fame still feel complete to you?