WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.120 Welcome to the Baseball Podcast. It is November 00:00:02.120 --> 00:00:05.299 20th. And if you follow Major League Baseball, 00:00:05.320 --> 00:00:07.139 you know this isn't just the hot stove heating 00:00:07.139 --> 00:00:09.619 up. Oh, no. This is the pressure cooker. It's 00:00:09.619 --> 00:00:11.500 a pressure cooker moment of the offseason calendar. 00:00:11.599 --> 00:00:14.560 Exactly. All these deadlines are driving the 00:00:14.560 --> 00:00:16.600 action. They're forcing front offices to make 00:00:16.600 --> 00:00:19.600 commitments that are going to shape their rosters 00:00:19.600 --> 00:00:22.280 and their payrolls for the next few years. That's 00:00:22.280 --> 00:00:24.000 the critical distinction right there. We are, 00:00:24.179 --> 00:00:26.600 you know, we're past the... purely speculative 00:00:26.600 --> 00:00:29.260 rumor mill phase. Right. We're into the part 00:00:29.260 --> 00:00:32.539 where financial and contractual realities, they 00:00:32.539 --> 00:00:34.520 bite. We just saw it with the qualifying offer 00:00:34.520 --> 00:00:37.320 deadline. Four surprising acceptances, and that 00:00:37.320 --> 00:00:39.420 immediately tightens up budgets across the league. 00:00:39.560 --> 00:00:41.579 And we've got the non -tender deadline looming 00:00:41.579 --> 00:00:44.179 just days away. That's another one that forces 00:00:44.179 --> 00:00:46.640 these really tough strategic financial decisions. 00:00:46.899 --> 00:00:48.880 Yeah, on players they might otherwise want to 00:00:48.880 --> 00:00:50.960 keep. It's that volatility, you know, that's 00:00:50.960 --> 00:00:54.200 making the trade market move at, well, breakneck 00:00:54.200 --> 00:00:56.920 speed right now. It really is. We have a massive 00:00:56.920 --> 00:01:00.929 amount of material to sift through today. We're 00:01:00.929 --> 00:01:03.289 going to start with the flurry of moves from 00:01:03.289 --> 00:01:06.629 Atlanta and Houston. Then there's that true blockbuster 00:01:06.629 --> 00:01:08.590 trade between the Orioles and Angels that we 00:01:08.590 --> 00:01:10.590 have to break down. Oh, the risk versus control 00:01:10.590 --> 00:01:12.989 on that one is fascinating. It is. And of course, 00:01:12.989 --> 00:01:15.989 the big names, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonzo, and 00:01:15.989 --> 00:01:18.069 the starting pitcher everyone wants, Karek Skubal. 00:01:18.409 --> 00:01:20.689 So our mission today is to really give you the 00:01:20.689 --> 00:01:23.510 context and I think the financial clarity behind 00:01:23.510 --> 00:01:27.409 these transactions. Like, why is Baltimore willing 00:01:27.409 --> 00:01:29.870 to trade away four years of control for one year 00:01:29.870 --> 00:01:33.269 of a slugger? How does shedding, you know, $7 00:01:33.269 --> 00:01:35.750 million in salaries suddenly become the most 00:01:35.750 --> 00:01:38.730 important move for a team chasing a $300 million 00:01:38.730 --> 00:01:41.549 free agent? We're going to unpack those strategic 00:01:41.549 --> 00:01:43.950 decisions and hopefully provide the insight you 00:01:43.950 --> 00:01:46.349 need to understand what truly matters most in 00:01:46.349 --> 00:01:48.329 the league right now. Let's jump right in with 00:01:48.329 --> 00:01:50.209 the team that always seems to operate ahead of 00:01:50.209 --> 00:01:54.489 the curve. The Atlanta Braves. Their GM, Alex 00:01:54.489 --> 00:01:57.950 Anthopoulos, has this history of trying to secure 00:01:57.950 --> 00:02:01.670 known commodities early to kind of insulate his 00:02:01.670 --> 00:02:04.489 team from the chaos. Yeah, he hates getting caught 00:02:04.489 --> 00:02:06.269 in the peak free agency market. He wants his 00:02:06.269 --> 00:02:09.009 guys locked in. And he executed that philosophy 00:02:09.009 --> 00:02:12.039 immediately. by locking down his elite closer, 00:02:12.300 --> 00:02:15.180 Raizel Iglesias. This was a huge piece of business 00:02:15.180 --> 00:02:17.479 for them. And it tells you a lot about where 00:02:17.479 --> 00:02:19.860 the market is for those high leverage bullpen 00:02:19.860 --> 00:02:23.159 arms. It's a fantastic signal. Iglesias re -signed 00:02:23.159 --> 00:02:26.120 with the Braves on a one year, $16 million deal. 00:02:26.650 --> 00:02:28.909 And that AAV, the annual average value, that 00:02:28.909 --> 00:02:31.229 is definitely at the top end of what people projected. 00:02:31.370 --> 00:02:33.430 But it's a reflection of the demand. Oh, the 00:02:33.430 --> 00:02:35.169 intense demand. And when we talk about demand, 00:02:35.270 --> 00:02:38.090 we're talking about serious, heavy hitting contenders 00:02:38.090 --> 00:02:41.069 who are all in on him. Right. He reportedly turned 00:02:41.069 --> 00:02:44.150 down offers at that exact same $16 million figure 00:02:44.150 --> 00:02:46.650 from both the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. And 00:02:46.650 --> 00:02:48.569 the Mets and Orioles were in there, too. Heavily. 00:02:48.610 --> 00:02:52.069 So when you see three or four serious contenders 00:02:52.069 --> 00:02:55.090 all willing to pay that premium for... Just a 00:02:55.090 --> 00:02:58.330 single year of relief work. It tells you everything 00:02:58.330 --> 00:03:01.090 about how front offices value late game security. 00:03:01.469 --> 00:03:03.650 Especially heading into the final year of this 00:03:03.650 --> 00:03:05.949 current CBA cycle. It also tells you about the 00:03:05.949 --> 00:03:08.270 confidence the Braves have in him, even though 00:03:08.270 --> 00:03:11.150 2025 is a bit of an uneven season for him. Well, 00:03:11.169 --> 00:03:14.310 the final stat line was good, a 3 .21 ERA, 29 00:03:14.310 --> 00:03:16.830 saves. But that doesn't really tell the whole 00:03:16.830 --> 00:03:19.120 story, does it? Not at all. He started a little 00:03:19.120 --> 00:03:21.599 slow, but then he just found his groove. Over 00:03:21.599 --> 00:03:26.319 his final 45 outings of the season, his ERA plummeted 00:03:26.319 --> 00:03:29.599 to an incredible 1 .25. Wow. That dominance, 00:03:29.740 --> 00:03:31.400 especially late in the season when the games 00:03:31.400 --> 00:03:33.860 really mattered, that's what secured this massive 00:03:33.860 --> 00:03:35.879 contract. It was an essential move for Atlanta, 00:03:36.159 --> 00:03:38.500 especially since their bullpen already has some 00:03:38.500 --> 00:03:40.620 question marks. Like Joe Jimenez recovering from 00:03:40.620 --> 00:03:42.639 shoulder surgery. Exactly. You need that anchor 00:03:42.639 --> 00:03:45.039 at the back end. So securing the closer was the 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:47.280 anchor move, but then right after... Atlanta 00:03:47.280 --> 00:03:49.580 made a slightly more subtle strategic trade. 00:03:49.699 --> 00:03:51.840 They swapped utility infielders with the Houston 00:03:51.840 --> 00:03:54.719 Astros. Mauricio Dubon for Nick Allen. And this 00:03:54.719 --> 00:03:57.759 trade, it really shines a light on what contenders 00:03:57.759 --> 00:04:00.599 prioritize versus what financially constrained 00:04:00.599 --> 00:04:04.219 teams need to do. Precisely. For Atlanta, this 00:04:04.219 --> 00:04:06.580 acquisition is all about defensive versatility 00:04:06.580 --> 00:04:09.479 and having a reliable offensive floor off your 00:04:09.479 --> 00:04:12.520 bench. Dubon is a former Gold Glove winner. He 00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:14.909 swings right -handed. He can play second, third, 00:04:15.069 --> 00:04:17.250 short. And even give you emergency coverage in 00:04:17.250 --> 00:04:18.889 center field. I mean, that level of flexibility 00:04:18.889 --> 00:04:22.329 is pure gold for a deep roster. And the offensive 00:04:22.329 --> 00:04:26.490 component is key here. Dubon's bet did decline 00:04:26.490 --> 00:04:30.290 a little bit in 2025. Yeah, he hit .241. Not 00:04:30.290 --> 00:04:33.069 great. But his floor is still higher than what 00:04:33.069 --> 00:04:34.870 the Braves typically get from their deep reserves. 00:04:35.310 --> 00:04:37.350 Absolutely. Think about the scenarios he covers. 00:04:37.550 --> 00:04:40.370 He can spell Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley to 00:04:40.370 --> 00:04:43.040 keep them fresh. And maybe most strategically, 00:04:43.319 --> 00:04:45.579 if the Braves are unable to land their top target 00:04:45.579 --> 00:04:48.379 at shortstop, let's say Hassan Kim signs somewhere 00:04:48.379 --> 00:04:50.899 else. Dudon gives them a capable, proven option 00:04:50.899 --> 00:04:53.620 at the position. It mitigates the panic. He's 00:04:53.620 --> 00:04:55.540 the insurance policy that allows Anthopolis to 00:04:55.540 --> 00:04:57.300 operate with patience in the rest of the market. 00:04:57.600 --> 00:04:59.220 OK, now let's flip it. Let's look at the Houston 00:04:59.220 --> 00:05:00.740 side, because this is where the financial motivation 00:05:00.740 --> 00:05:03.170 just becomes so explicit. This is a textbook 00:05:03.170 --> 00:05:06.170 salary dump. It's designed to free up margin 00:05:06.170 --> 00:05:09.129 money for a much, much bigger fish down the line. 00:05:09.290 --> 00:05:11.550 So Dubon was projected to earn, what, six or 00:05:11.550 --> 00:05:13.389 seven million dollars in arbitration? Somewhere 00:05:13.389 --> 00:05:16.730 in that range, yeah. So by trading him, Houston 00:05:16.730 --> 00:05:20.129 immediately shaves that projected salary right 00:05:20.129 --> 00:05:22.350 off their ledger. And what they get back is Nick 00:05:22.350 --> 00:05:25.310 Allen, who is, to be fair, an elite defender. 00:05:25.709 --> 00:05:28.970 Oh, he's incredible with the glove. Few fielders 00:05:28.970 --> 00:05:30.769 in baseball are better than him at shortstop. 00:05:31.199 --> 00:05:34.879 But the offense is, to put it kindly, abysmal. 00:05:35.079 --> 00:05:37.860 Brutal, actually. Allen was easily the worst 00:05:37.860 --> 00:05:39.720 qualified hitter in baseball last year. Among 00:05:39.720 --> 00:05:42.480 players with 400 or more plate appearances in 00:05:42.480 --> 00:05:46.379 2025, right? That's right. He hit .211 with zero 00:05:46.379 --> 00:05:49.959 home runs. Zero. In 416 plate appearances, you 00:05:49.959 --> 00:05:52.360 just cannot survive offensively with that in 00:05:52.360 --> 00:05:55.220 an everyday role. So Houston saves $6 to $7 million. 00:05:55.620 --> 00:05:58.800 They get a cost -controlled, defensively pristine, 00:05:58.860 --> 00:06:01.750 but cheaper utility guy. The trade isn't about 00:06:01.750 --> 00:06:04.069 improving the roster today. It's about creating 00:06:04.069 --> 00:06:06.709 financial space for the expensive, necessary 00:06:06.709 --> 00:06:08.889 improvements they have to make this offseason. 00:06:09.050 --> 00:06:11.209 Which primarily means their pursuit of P. Alonzo, 00:06:11.310 --> 00:06:13.410 which we'll get to later. Exactly. So shedding 00:06:13.410 --> 00:06:15.930 $7 million might sound small in the grand scheme 00:06:15.930 --> 00:06:18.810 of a, you know, $200 million payroll. But when 00:06:18.810 --> 00:06:20.290 you're trying to land a guy who's going to demand 00:06:20.290 --> 00:06:23.439 $30 million a year. Every margin counts. It's 00:06:23.439 --> 00:06:25.660 all about staying under those crucial luxury 00:06:25.660 --> 00:06:28.600 tax thresholds. It's the difference between being 00:06:28.600 --> 00:06:32.300 able to offer Alonzo 32 million AAV or only 25 00:06:32.300 --> 00:06:35.600 million AAV. Every single dollar of flexibility 00:06:35.600 --> 00:06:38.540 gained from a move like this, it can be immediately 00:06:38.540 --> 00:06:40.860 converted into higher offers for their top targets. 00:06:41.160 --> 00:06:43.699 Speaking of calculated risks, Atlanta also had 00:06:43.699 --> 00:06:46.339 the Davis -Daniel experiment. This one really 00:06:46.339 --> 00:06:48.740 demonstrates the razor -thin margin between... 00:06:48.889 --> 00:06:52.970 finding cheap, reliable depth and, well, acquiring 00:06:52.970 --> 00:06:55.490 a player who just collapses under pressure. Daniel 00:06:55.490 --> 00:06:57.370 was an offseason pickup from the Angels for a 00:06:57.370 --> 00:06:59.889 younger prospect, Mitch Ferris. And the rationale 00:06:59.889 --> 00:07:03.209 was sound. In 2024 with the Angels, Daniel had 00:07:03.209 --> 00:07:06.709 a solid 4 .16 FIP fielding independent pitching. 00:07:06.910 --> 00:07:09.149 So his defense wasn't carrying him. Not at all. 00:07:09.230 --> 00:07:12.189 And crucially, he had fantastic control. His 00:07:12.189 --> 00:07:15.389 walk rate was below 5%. That profile just screams 00:07:15.389 --> 00:07:19.050 solid, cheap, fifth starter. or long reliever 00:07:19.050 --> 00:07:21.050 depth. But when he put on the Braves uniform 00:07:21.050 --> 00:07:24.949 in 2025, the wheels just fell off. Completely. 00:07:25.420 --> 00:07:27.740 He only made three big league appearances and 00:07:27.740 --> 00:07:30.759 the control just vanished. His walk rate spiked 00:07:30.759 --> 00:07:33.560 to over 15 percent. His velocity dipped. It was 00:07:33.560 --> 00:07:36.100 just as bad in AAA. He was amplified in AAA. 00:07:36.199 --> 00:07:40.220 His ERA, FIP, XFIP, they were all above 5 .000 00:07:40.220 --> 00:07:43.000 across 100 innings. The Braves just couldn't 00:07:43.000 --> 00:07:45.259 tolerate that kind of drop off. So the end result 00:07:45.259 --> 00:07:47.379 was him being outrighted and electing free agency. 00:07:47.579 --> 00:07:50.319 The Braves basically gave up a prospect for a 00:07:50.319 --> 00:07:52.540 three month rental that never panned out. It's 00:07:52.540 --> 00:07:55.399 a harsh lesson, but a necessary one. Acquiring 00:07:55.399 --> 00:07:58.220 reliable depth is incredibly difficult. Front 00:07:58.220 --> 00:08:00.199 offices are constantly looking for those diamonds 00:08:00.199 --> 00:08:02.740 in the rough, but often players like Daniel who 00:08:02.740 --> 00:08:05.620 have one great trait, they just lose it. Which 00:08:05.620 --> 00:08:08.100 really underscores the Orioles' decision, which 00:08:08.100 --> 00:08:10.779 we're moving to next, to trade a high -value 00:08:10.779 --> 00:08:13.839 prospect for a known quantity. It's such a high 00:08:13.839 --> 00:08:16.519 -stakes aggressive move. So if the Braves' moves 00:08:16.519 --> 00:08:19.319 were all about calculated security, the trade 00:08:19.319 --> 00:08:21.519 between the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles 00:08:21.519 --> 00:08:25.519 Angels, This was desperation meeting ambition. 00:08:25.779 --> 00:08:28.800 Absolutely. The Orioles traded former first round 00:08:28.800 --> 00:08:31.480 pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez for one year 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:34.320 of slugger Taylor Ward. And this immediately 00:08:34.320 --> 00:08:37.200 shows you two organizations moving in totally 00:08:37.200 --> 00:08:40.759 different, almost contradictory. This is a true 00:08:40.759 --> 00:08:43.620 blockbuster based on differing timelines. For 00:08:43.620 --> 00:08:45.399 Baltimore, a team that's been building up this 00:08:45.399 --> 00:08:48.100 young core, this just screams maximum urgency. 00:08:48.419 --> 00:08:50.940 They are trading four years of cost -controlled 00:08:50.940 --> 00:08:53.100 high upside pitching. Rodriguez is controlled 00:08:53.100 --> 00:08:55.960 until 2029. Right. For a single year of Taylor 00:08:55.960 --> 00:08:57.720 Ward, who's going to cost him probably $14 million 00:08:57.720 --> 00:09:00.679 in arbitration. That is an aggressive win -now 00:09:00.679 --> 00:09:03.320 calculation. You give up four years of control 00:09:03.320 --> 00:09:05.980 for one year of a bat. And Ward is the thump 00:09:05.980 --> 00:09:08.200 they need. But they have young outfielders like 00:09:08.200 --> 00:09:10.860 Colton Couser and Heston Kierstad already in 00:09:10.860 --> 00:09:13.240 the wings. Well, the Orioles' internal clock 00:09:13.240 --> 00:09:16.019 is ringing loudly. Their window of contention 00:09:16.019 --> 00:09:18.539 is wide open now, and they need proven offensive 00:09:18.539 --> 00:09:21.600 production. Ward brings a high offensive floor 00:09:21.600 --> 00:09:23.399 and immediate production that maybe they don't 00:09:23.399 --> 00:09:25.940 trust from Couser or Kierstad yet in October. 00:09:26.200 --> 00:09:28.500 He's also very versatile. Extremely. He can play 00:09:28.500 --> 00:09:31.440 both corner outfield spots, handle DH duties. 00:09:31.779 --> 00:09:35.080 It gives them flexibility. This move says, We 00:09:35.080 --> 00:09:36.940 have pitching depth in the minors and we need 00:09:36.940 --> 00:09:39.860 to maximize our World Series chances while Adley 00:09:39.860 --> 00:09:41.860 Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are still on their 00:09:41.860 --> 00:09:44.759 rookie contracts. On the flip side, the Angels 00:09:44.759 --> 00:09:47.559 took on significant risk, but for potentially 00:09:47.559 --> 00:09:50.659 massive reward. A huge reward. They acquired 00:09:50.659 --> 00:09:53.200 a high upside pitcher who has a major health 00:09:53.200 --> 00:09:55.759 history. I mean, Rodriguez is a former top prospect 00:09:55.759 --> 00:09:58.139 with 100 mile per hour fastball and a wicked 00:09:58.139 --> 00:10:00.860 slider. But. And this is a big bite. He missed 00:10:00.860 --> 00:10:03.460 the entire 2025 season after getting hurt in 00:10:03.460 --> 00:10:06.379 2024 and then having surgery to remove bone spurs. 00:10:06.500 --> 00:10:09.240 And their GM, Perry Menezian, he acknowledges 00:10:09.240 --> 00:10:11.620 this health gamble. But the appeal of getting 00:10:11.620 --> 00:10:14.500 four years of potential ace -level pitching control 00:10:14.500 --> 00:10:17.899 was just too enticing to resist. The Angels need 00:10:17.899 --> 00:10:20.820 an identity, and high upside pitching is a great 00:10:20.820 --> 00:10:23.740 place to start. So it's basically a bet that 00:10:23.740 --> 00:10:25.899 the surgery resolved the underlying issue, right? 00:10:25.960 --> 00:10:28.419 That's the hope. Rodriguez himself has been very 00:10:28.419 --> 00:10:31.159 optimistic. He said the bone spurs were the root 00:10:31.159 --> 00:10:33.120 cause of the issues that led to his lat injuries, 00:10:33.320 --> 00:10:35.379 and with them removed, he's targeting a full 00:10:35.379 --> 00:10:37.700 recovery. He expects to be ready for spring training. 00:10:37.960 --> 00:10:40.840 And if he returns to form. The Angels win this 00:10:40.840 --> 00:10:43.580 trade, overwhelmingly. If he suffers another 00:10:43.580 --> 00:10:46.080 setback, the Orioles look brilliant for trading 00:10:46.080 --> 00:10:48.700 him at his peak prospect value. This trade also 00:10:48.700 --> 00:10:50.860 has immediate roster fallout for the Angels, 00:10:51.000 --> 00:10:53.220 just, you know, independent of Rodriguez's health. 00:10:53.659 --> 00:10:56.480 Ward was their everyday left fielder. And a crucial 00:10:56.480 --> 00:10:59.720 run producer. That $14 million salary is now 00:10:59.720 --> 00:11:02.100 off the books, which Menasian has said publicly 00:11:02.100 --> 00:11:04.440 allows them to pursue free agents more aggressively. 00:11:04.759 --> 00:11:07.019 That financial flexibility is critical because 00:11:07.019 --> 00:11:09.919 they have enormous holes to fill. They desperately 00:11:09.919 --> 00:11:12.559 need another starting pitcher to anchor that 00:11:12.559 --> 00:11:15.480 rotation. A rotation that, outside of a few young 00:11:15.480 --> 00:11:17.480 arms, is looking pretty thin. And the offense. 00:11:17.720 --> 00:11:21.000 They lose Ward's bat. They need a starting outfielder, 00:11:21.000 --> 00:11:23.059 probably a center fielder since Joe Adele has 00:11:23.059 --> 00:11:25.440 settled into right. Exactly. With Mike Trout 00:11:25.440 --> 00:11:27.740 and Jorge Soler more suited for DH or limited 00:11:27.740 --> 00:11:30.279 outfield duties, the Angels need an injection 00:11:30.279 --> 00:11:33.519 of defense and consistent offense. They freed 00:11:33.519 --> 00:11:35.700 up the money to spend, but now they have to spend 00:11:35.700 --> 00:11:38.960 it wisely to fill these major gaps. And the Angels... 00:11:39.230 --> 00:11:41.629 much like the Houston Astros, are in that difficult 00:11:41.629 --> 00:11:43.230 spot where they're trying to spend their way 00:11:43.230 --> 00:11:45.330 out of the decline. Yeah, the Astros missed the 00:11:45.330 --> 00:11:47.850 playoffs in 2025, which officially ended that 00:11:47.850 --> 00:11:50.710 remarkable eight -year run. It felt inevitable, 00:11:50.909 --> 00:11:53.559 maybe, but it's still jarring to see. Finishing 00:11:53.559 --> 00:11:57.919 87 -75, the steady decline in wins from 100 to 00:11:57.919 --> 00:12:01.320 90, 88, and now 87. It just shows that slow erosion 00:12:01.320 --> 00:12:03.879 of their core. And losing Alex Bregman and Kyle 00:12:03.879 --> 00:12:06.960 Tucker last offseason was massive. Now all -star 00:12:06.960 --> 00:12:09.240 Frambois Valdez hits free agency. The cracks 00:12:09.240 --> 00:12:11.820 are definitely showing. Their needs are incredibly 00:12:11.820 --> 00:12:15.679 specific. Health is a crisis. Jordan Alvarez 00:12:15.679 --> 00:12:18.200 only played 48 games. Josh Hader was hurt late. 00:12:18.419 --> 00:12:21.679 Ronald Blanco was out until late 2026. The pitching 00:12:21.679 --> 00:12:24.399 staff looks very unstable outside of Hunter Brown, 00:12:24.620 --> 00:12:27.000 who, you know, he really showed some growth last 00:12:27.000 --> 00:12:29.659 year. And the offense. Finishing 21st in runs 00:12:29.659 --> 00:12:33.059 scored and 15th in slugging is just... It's unacceptable 00:12:33.059 --> 00:12:35.500 for a team with championship aspirations. Even 00:12:35.500 --> 00:12:38.320 with a healthy Alvarez, they need a major power 00:12:38.320 --> 00:12:40.659 injection to balance that lineup. And this is 00:12:40.659 --> 00:12:43.100 why Pete Alonso is such a perfect, almost mandatory 00:12:43.100 --> 00:12:45.480 fit for them. Let's elaborate on that fit. Why 00:12:45.480 --> 00:12:48.120 Alonso for Houston? Well, it's the ballpark dimensions 00:12:48.120 --> 00:12:50.720 and the balance he provides. Alonso hitting balls 00:12:50.720 --> 00:12:52.840 into the short porch of the Crawford boxes in 00:12:52.840 --> 00:12:55.539 left field is just a dream scenario for them. 00:12:55.679 --> 00:12:58.259 He provides immediate 40 homer production. Right. 00:12:58.639 --> 00:13:01.299 And combined with Alvarez, it creates a formidable 00:13:01.299 --> 00:13:04.259 lefty -righty power combo in the heart of that 00:13:04.259 --> 00:13:06.980 order. Getting Alonso would instantly transform 00:13:06.980 --> 00:13:09.139 them from a bottom half offense to a top five 00:13:09.139 --> 00:13:11.779 offense, assuming health elsewhere. But if they 00:13:11.779 --> 00:13:13.899 strike out on Alonso, their need for left -handed 00:13:13.899 --> 00:13:16.700 bats is still dire. Their lineup is so right 00:13:16.700 --> 00:13:19.799 -heavy. They absolutely have to diversify their 00:13:19.799 --> 00:13:22.250 approach. If Alonzo doesn't sign, they have to 00:13:22.250 --> 00:13:24.529 look at trade targets like Brendan Donovan or 00:13:24.529 --> 00:13:27.389 Brandon Lowe. Both are left -handed bats who 00:13:27.389 --> 00:13:29.629 could immediately slot in at second base. Which 00:13:29.629 --> 00:13:31.730 would allow Jose Altuve to potentially shift 00:13:31.730 --> 00:13:34.830 to left field to mitigate some injury risk. And 00:13:34.830 --> 00:13:37.370 lock Alvarez into the DH spot. They need that 00:13:37.370 --> 00:13:39.730 kind of switch up to keep pitching staffs honest. 00:13:40.009 --> 00:13:42.429 So the next layer of complexity for them is their 00:13:42.429 --> 00:13:45.769 trade capital and the financial juggling. We 00:13:45.769 --> 00:13:47.830 talked about shedding Dubon's salary, but what 00:13:47.830 --> 00:13:50.809 about major assets? Isaac Paredes keeps popping 00:13:50.809 --> 00:13:54.210 up in rumors. And GM Dana Brown has been vehemently 00:13:54.210 --> 00:13:56.649 denying those rumors. He calls Paredes one of 00:13:56.649 --> 00:13:59.350 their best pitch watchers, crucial to their lineup. 00:13:59.509 --> 00:14:01.490 But logic dictates that if you're going big for 00:14:01.490 --> 00:14:04.389 Alonzo, you need to consolidate assets or clear 00:14:04.389 --> 00:14:06.610 even more salary. Right. So if they keep Paredes, 00:14:06.669 --> 00:14:08.909 they might need to move veteran players. The 00:14:08.909 --> 00:14:11.429 more realistic trade ship, I think, is Christian 00:14:11.429 --> 00:14:14.470 Walker. Who will be 35 next season. Exactly. 00:14:14.789 --> 00:14:17.470 Trading him saves salary and allows Houston to 00:14:17.470 --> 00:14:20.750 shift Paredes to first base. That move clears 00:14:20.750 --> 00:14:23.809 the logistical path and the financial space needed 00:14:23.809 --> 00:14:26.590 to aggressively pursue a massive contract for 00:14:26.590 --> 00:14:29.570 Alonso. It's a move that signals a true regime 00:14:29.570 --> 00:14:31.909 change. All right, let's shift to the free agent 00:14:31.909 --> 00:14:35.029 market and specifically the decisions that have 00:14:35.029 --> 00:14:37.429 already complicated the budgets for half a dozen 00:14:37.429 --> 00:14:40.840 teams. The accepted qualifying offers. Yeah, 00:14:40.899 --> 00:14:42.600 the acceptance rate this year was surprisingly 00:14:42.600 --> 00:14:45.639 high. It injected a serious dose of uncertainty 00:14:45.639 --> 00:14:48.620 into the market. Four QOs accepted. That immediately 00:14:48.620 --> 00:14:51.480 took four high -value players off the board and 00:14:51.480 --> 00:14:54.220 committed over $80 million in guaranteed salary 00:14:54.220 --> 00:14:56.720 for next season. Let's start with Brandon Woodruff. 00:14:56.879 --> 00:14:59.600 He accepted the Brewers' offer, $22 million for 00:14:59.600 --> 00:15:02.179 one year, even after he declined his mutual option. 00:15:02.460 --> 00:15:05.259 And $22 million is just a massive figure for 00:15:05.259 --> 00:15:07.299 the Brewers' organization. You called it uncharted 00:15:07.299 --> 00:15:09.639 territory for them. It is historic for Milwaukee. 00:15:10.269 --> 00:15:12.669 because their total annual payroll usually hovers 00:15:12.669 --> 00:15:16.009 around, what, $100 to $120 million? Right. Committing 00:15:16.009 --> 00:15:19.529 $22 million to a single pitcher is an enormous 00:15:19.529 --> 00:15:21.830 percentage of their total budget. It's a fifth 00:15:21.830 --> 00:15:24.490 of their typical spending power for one player. 00:15:24.690 --> 00:15:26.970 And he's coming off right shoulder surgery and 00:15:26.970 --> 00:15:28.970 a last strain, so it's a high -risk commitment. 00:15:29.309 --> 00:15:31.590 It is, but his follow -up appointments were successful, 00:15:31.769 --> 00:15:34.250 and the organization believes he can anchor that 00:15:34.250 --> 00:15:37.309 rotation in the second half of 2026. So they 00:15:37.309 --> 00:15:39.970 justified the expense. It's a sign they're serious 00:15:39.970 --> 00:15:43.190 about winning, but it instantly eliminates flexibility 00:15:43.190 --> 00:15:45.649 for other major signings. That's exactly it. 00:15:45.710 --> 00:15:48.789 That $22 million is now unavailable for a much 00:15:48.789 --> 00:15:51.389 -needed hitter or a depth starter. They are betting 00:15:51.389 --> 00:15:53.549 on internal improvements and Woodruff's health. 00:15:53.889 --> 00:15:56.289 But the acceptance that really rattled the divisional 00:15:56.289 --> 00:16:00.009 landscape was Shota Imanaga taking the Cubs' 00:16:00.070 --> 00:16:02.730 qualifying offer. Oh, that decision was a strategic 00:16:02.730 --> 00:16:05.809 curveball the Cubs did not see coming. The prevailing 00:16:05.809 --> 00:16:07.929 assumption was that Emunaga would decline and 00:16:07.929 --> 00:16:10.190 seek a multi -year deal, probably in the range 00:16:10.190 --> 00:16:13.230 of, you know, three years, 70 million. So now 00:16:13.230 --> 00:16:15.389 the Coes bring back a strong frontline starter, 00:16:15.529 --> 00:16:18.190 which is great competitively. But it immediately 00:16:18.190 --> 00:16:21.830 eats up about $22 million of their budget. And 00:16:21.830 --> 00:16:23.950 how does that affect their pursuit of other high 00:16:23.950 --> 00:16:26.690 -impact guys like Michael King or Dylan Cease? 00:16:26.889 --> 00:16:29.929 It fundamentally limits their path forward. It 00:16:29.929 --> 00:16:32.649 forces a serious negotiation with the luxury 00:16:32.649 --> 00:16:36.220 tax threshold. If the Cubs have Imanaga and then 00:16:36.220 --> 00:16:38.799 immediately pivot to acquiring another major 00:16:38.799 --> 00:16:41.500 starter, they're almost guaranteed to breach 00:16:41.500 --> 00:16:44.330 the next luxury tax tier. Which means higher 00:16:44.330 --> 00:16:47.309 penalties, lost draft capital. Exactly. They 00:16:47.309 --> 00:16:49.970 have to be far more selective now. They might 00:16:49.970 --> 00:16:52.669 prioritize a cheaper high upside reliever or 00:16:52.669 --> 00:16:55.269 a mid -tier offensive upgrade rather than entering 00:16:55.269 --> 00:16:57.570 a bidding war for Cease, which would push them 00:16:57.570 --> 00:16:59.809 deep into penalty territory. And as you pointed 00:16:59.809 --> 00:17:02.090 out, their division rival, the Cincinnati Reds, 00:17:02.090 --> 00:17:04.210 have to be thrilled that the Cubs are momentarily 00:17:04.210 --> 00:17:06.890 off balance. It creates a crucial window of opportunity 00:17:06.890 --> 00:17:09.470 for them. If the Cubs are busy recalculating 00:17:09.470 --> 00:17:11.730 their budget, the Reds can potentially control 00:17:11.730 --> 00:17:14.109 the pace of the offseason. We also saw Gleyber 00:17:14.109 --> 00:17:17.450 Torres and Trent Grisham accept their QOs. Grisham's 00:17:17.450 --> 00:17:20.150 was over $22 million for the Yankees. And these 00:17:20.150 --> 00:17:22.750 are massive numbers for players who are not guaranteed 00:17:22.750 --> 00:17:25.750 superstars. The Yankees are pleased to retain 00:17:25.750 --> 00:17:28.490 a reliable piece in Grisham, but committing that 00:17:28.490 --> 00:17:31.890 $22 million now absolutely impacts their aggressive 00:17:31.890 --> 00:17:34.390 pursuit of Cody Bellinger. OK, let's talk about 00:17:34.390 --> 00:17:37.420 the true top tier of the market. Cody Bellinger. 00:17:37.500 --> 00:17:40.660 He remains the premier position player free agent, 00:17:40.759 --> 00:17:43.619 and this New York rivalry is shaping up to be 00:17:43.619 --> 00:17:46.220 the story of his free agency. The Yankees are 00:17:46.220 --> 00:17:49.039 the clear favorites, full stop. Bellinger had 00:17:49.039 --> 00:17:52.200 a tremendous 2025 campaign. He proved he's back 00:17:52.200 --> 00:17:55.619 to elite form. He hit .272, slugged 29 home runs, 00:17:55.779 --> 00:17:59.099 drove in 98. He is the versatile, left -handed 00:17:59.099 --> 00:18:01.500 offensive force the Yankees desperately need 00:18:01.500 --> 00:18:03.759 in the middle of their lineup. Rival execs view 00:18:03.759 --> 00:18:06.609 him as the most valuable remaining bat. But the 00:18:06.609 --> 00:18:09.630 New York Mets and Steve Cohen are just lurking, 00:18:09.630 --> 00:18:11.950 ready to spoil the party. If the Yankees hesitate, 00:18:12.230 --> 00:18:14.369 either over the years on the contract or because 00:18:14.369 --> 00:18:16.630 of luxury tax concerns after Grisham's acceptance, 00:18:16.990 --> 00:18:19.490 the Mets are ready to strike. Cohen has shown 00:18:19.490 --> 00:18:22.349 a willingness to swoop in and steal a star. And 00:18:22.349 --> 00:18:24.529 Bellinger fits the Mets' shifting identity perfectly. 00:18:24.849 --> 00:18:28.309 They need athleticism, contact skills, high -quality 00:18:28.309 --> 00:18:30.650 defense. Especially if they lose their other 00:18:30.650 --> 00:18:33.410 star slugger, Pete Alonso. Which takes us right 00:18:33.410 --> 00:18:36.819 to Alonso. If the Mets can't keep the polar bear, 00:18:36.960 --> 00:18:39.920 where does he land? The Boston Red Sox have been 00:18:39.920 --> 00:18:43.099 reported as the strongest contender for Alonzo 00:18:43.099 --> 00:18:45.819 if he leaves Queens. That is a massive statement 00:18:45.819 --> 00:18:48.180 of intent from the Red Sox. His power would play 00:18:48.180 --> 00:18:50.759 perfectly at Fenway. Oh, absolutely. And as we 00:18:50.759 --> 00:18:53.960 discussed, the Astros view him as an essential 00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:56.539 prime fit for their power -starved lineup because 00:18:56.539 --> 00:18:58.980 of the Crawford boxes. This is a three -team 00:18:58.980 --> 00:19:02.140 race with incredible urgency from all sides. 00:19:02.420 --> 00:19:04.619 Switching to pitching. The hottest name on the 00:19:04.619 --> 00:19:06.900 trade market and arguably the most impactful 00:19:06.900 --> 00:19:10.119 pitcher available is the two -time AL Cy Young 00:19:10.119 --> 00:19:13.400 winner, Tarek Skubal. The Tigers are gauging 00:19:13.400 --> 00:19:16.039 his value. And the interest is bordering on frantic. 00:19:16.279 --> 00:19:19.099 Skubal is the trade ace. Insider reports have 00:19:19.099 --> 00:19:21.339 identified the Mets as a perfect landing spot 00:19:21.339 --> 00:19:23.400 largely because Steve Cohen doesn't just want 00:19:23.400 --> 00:19:26.079 an ace. He wants the ace. And he's willing to 00:19:26.079 --> 00:19:28.259 pay the massive prospect capital and then immediately 00:19:28.259 --> 00:19:31.240 offer an extension. Exactly. The Red Sox are 00:19:31.240 --> 00:19:33.880 also heavily in the mix. Scooball's presence 00:19:33.880 --> 00:19:36.319 on the trade block is slowing down the entire 00:19:36.319 --> 00:19:38.980 pitching market. Which brings us to the Minnesota 00:19:38.980 --> 00:19:42.559 Twins, who have two co -aces, Joe Ryan and Pablo 00:19:42.559 --> 00:19:45.359 Lopez, both potentially available. But their 00:19:45.359 --> 00:19:47.940 trade market is completely dependent on Scooball. 00:19:48.039 --> 00:19:50.460 The Twins are navigating an ownership transition, 00:19:50.740 --> 00:19:52.779 complicating their long -term spending plans. 00:19:53.140 --> 00:19:55.299 And they have these two incredibly valuable, 00:19:55.559 --> 00:19:58.369 cost -controlled pitchers. And national reports 00:19:58.369 --> 00:20:00.950 strongly suggest that they will deal one, but 00:20:00.950 --> 00:20:03.390 not both, before their team control runs out 00:20:03.390 --> 00:20:07.329 in 2027. But no team is going to offer a premium 00:20:07.329 --> 00:20:10.250 package for Ryan or Lopez until the Scooble situation 00:20:10.250 --> 00:20:13.390 is resolved. Why does Scooble's market specifically 00:20:13.390 --> 00:20:16.309 depress their value? Because if a team can acquire 00:20:16.309 --> 00:20:19.349 a proven two -time Cy Young winner like Scooble, 00:20:19.509 --> 00:20:21.509 they're taking themselves out of the bidding 00:20:21.509 --> 00:20:24.670 for that next tier. Ryan is high value, but Lopez's 00:20:24.670 --> 00:20:26.769 value is already a little depressed due to health 00:20:26.769 --> 00:20:29.789 concerns. If the Mets or Red Sox land Scooble, 00:20:29.970 --> 00:20:32.210 the demand for Ryan immediately falls and the 00:20:32.210 --> 00:20:34.730 Twins have to accept a lesser return. So the 00:20:34.730 --> 00:20:36.869 market's just in a holding pattern. Waiting for 00:20:36.869 --> 00:20:39.390 Detroit. Finally, let's analyze the closer market, 00:20:39.509 --> 00:20:41.849 specifically the tier just below the elite guys 00:20:41.849 --> 00:20:44.730 like Edwin Diaz. Devin Williams is creating a 00:20:44.730 --> 00:20:47.220 lot of chatter. especially about a possible reunion 00:20:47.220 --> 00:20:50.559 with the Yankees. Williams had a surprisingly 00:20:50.559 --> 00:20:56.559 tumultuous 2025. He had a 4 .79 ERA, lost his 00:20:56.559 --> 00:20:58.920 closing duties in late July. On the surface, 00:20:59.059 --> 00:21:01.119 those numbers are terrible. They are. But if 00:21:01.119 --> 00:21:03.799 you dig into the underlying metrics, his elite 00:21:03.799 --> 00:21:06.460 level stuff is still there. His strand rate, 00:21:06.619 --> 00:21:08.180 which is the percentage of runners he leaves 00:21:08.180 --> 00:21:11.359 on base, plummeted from a career high of 83 percent 00:21:11.359 --> 00:21:14.519 to just 55 percent. So that screams massive bad 00:21:14.519 --> 00:21:17.420 luck. Exactly. Teams are viewing him as a high 00:21:17.420 --> 00:21:20.140 upside by low candidate. The Yankees are discussing 00:21:20.140 --> 00:21:22.700 bringing him back on a team friendly deal. But 00:21:22.700 --> 00:21:25.279 other teams like the Dodgers, Reds and Red Sox 00:21:25.279 --> 00:21:27.440 are connected. They see an opportunity here. 00:21:27.599 --> 00:21:30.039 And the Orioles, despite trading for Ward, they 00:21:30.039 --> 00:21:32.460 still desperately need bullpen help. Their bullpen 00:21:32.460 --> 00:21:34.839 has been gutted by injuries and trades. They're 00:21:34.839 --> 00:21:37.160 in a dire position. They are actively hunting 00:21:37.160 --> 00:21:39.559 for high leverage options to establish a committee 00:21:39.559 --> 00:21:42.140 approach. So guys like Kyle Finnegan. Finnegan, 00:21:42.279 --> 00:21:44.059 who benefited from sharing duties in Detroit. 00:21:44.170 --> 00:21:46.450 Or they might look at established names like 00:21:46.450 --> 00:21:48.970 Pete Fairbanks or Ryan Helsley to solidify that 00:21:48.970 --> 00:21:51.710 committee heading into spring training. OK, as 00:21:51.710 --> 00:21:54.150 we approach Friday's non -tender deadline, the 00:21:54.150 --> 00:21:56.569 pressure to make these painful financial decisions 00:21:56.569 --> 00:22:00.589 is just mounting. This is the deadline that forces 00:22:00.589 --> 00:22:03.390 teams to weigh a player's projected arbitration 00:22:03.390 --> 00:22:06.170 salary against their actual performance. And 00:22:06.170 --> 00:22:09.119 the value of their 40 -man roster spot. This 00:22:09.119 --> 00:22:11.440 is where marginal decisions become existential. 00:22:11.940 --> 00:22:14.880 For clubs trying to manage the luxury tax, even 00:22:14.880 --> 00:22:17.319 a few million dollars saved can open up space 00:22:17.319 --> 00:22:19.680 for a much bigger signing. Let's look at the 00:22:19.680 --> 00:22:22.809 Yankees. Despite their enormous wealth. They 00:22:22.809 --> 00:22:24.930 are strategically trying to clear space. And 00:22:24.930 --> 00:22:27.390 the biggest name facing a tough decision is high 00:22:27.390 --> 00:22:30.150 -salary reliever Camilo Duval, who's projected 00:22:30.150 --> 00:22:33.150 to get $6 .6 million in arbitration. That's a 00:22:33.150 --> 00:22:35.630 significant number. It is. His performance just 00:22:35.630 --> 00:22:37.670 wasn't consistently strong enough to justify 00:22:37.670 --> 00:22:40.289 that salary for a non -closer role, especially 00:22:40.289 --> 00:22:42.369 if the Yankees are planning on acquiring a high 00:22:42.369 --> 00:22:44.470 -impact reliever. Or even re -signing Devin Williams. 00:22:44.630 --> 00:22:47.849 Exactly. By non -tendering Duval, they save that 00:22:47.849 --> 00:22:50.609 $6 .6 million, which can then be immediately 00:22:50.609 --> 00:22:53.299 reallocated. It's a ruthless calculation based 00:22:53.299 --> 00:22:55.759 purely on opportunity cost. They're also looking 00:22:55.759 --> 00:22:58.099 at Mark Leiter Jr., projected at $3 million, 00:22:58.319 --> 00:23:02.140 and Oswaldo Cabrera at $1 .2 million. Cabrera's 00:23:02.140 --> 00:23:04.400 number is small, but his versatility might not 00:23:04.400 --> 00:23:06.920 be enough to save him. The Yankees have a crowded 00:23:06.920 --> 00:23:09.559 infield, and if they can use that 40 -man spot 00:23:09.559 --> 00:23:12.269 for a higher upside pitching prospect... They 00:23:12.269 --> 00:23:14.809 might just cut ties. The dilemma facing the Kansas 00:23:14.809 --> 00:23:17.450 City Royals at second base perfectly illustrates 00:23:17.450 --> 00:23:19.970 the burden of bad contracts for small market 00:23:19.970 --> 00:23:22.269 teams. Oh, this is a classic resource allocation 00:23:22.269 --> 00:23:25.069 problem. They are struggling with what to do 00:23:25.069 --> 00:23:27.609 about Jonathan India and Michael Massey. If they 00:23:27.609 --> 00:23:30.309 keep both, they're committing nearly $10 million. 00:23:31.259 --> 00:23:34.799 to a second base platoon that was, frankly, below 00:23:34.799 --> 00:23:37.799 replacement level in 2025. And for the Royals, 00:23:37.799 --> 00:23:40.519 who operate on a tight budget, $10 million tied 00:23:40.519 --> 00:23:43.180 up in below -average production is just crippling. 00:23:43.319 --> 00:23:45.759 So what are the painful options? Well, non -tendering 00:23:45.759 --> 00:23:47.900 India would free up most of that salary, but 00:23:47.900 --> 00:23:50.920 it leaves a massive hole at second. Non -tendering 00:23:50.920 --> 00:23:53.619 Massey saves less money, but he has more team 00:23:53.619 --> 00:23:55.900 control remaining. They have to decide whether 00:23:55.900 --> 00:23:58.460 to eat the $10 million or risk losing a potential 00:23:58.460 --> 00:24:01.180 trade asset. And across the league, the Cincinnati 00:24:01.180 --> 00:24:04.079 Reds face a similar situation with former top 00:24:04.079 --> 00:24:07.099 prospect Gavin Lux. Lux is projected to earn 00:24:07.099 --> 00:24:11.299 $5 million. That is a steep price for a player 00:24:11.299 --> 00:24:13.819 who ended 2025 as a below -replacement -level 00:24:13.819 --> 00:24:17.680 contributor. He hit .269 with only five home 00:24:17.680 --> 00:24:20.079 runs. And the defensive shift is the killer here, 00:24:20.160 --> 00:24:22.779 right? He's primarily a left fielder now. Which 00:24:22.779 --> 00:24:24.960 severely diminishes his value compared to when 00:24:24.960 --> 00:24:27.740 he was an infielder. With a crowded outfield, 00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:30.240 the Reds will almost certainly non -tender him. 00:24:30.440 --> 00:24:33.119 They'll bet that $5 million is better spent elsewhere. 00:24:33.599 --> 00:24:36.140 The Guardians have an agonizing decision with 00:24:36.140 --> 00:24:38.740 the fan favorite, David Frye. He's a realistic 00:24:38.740 --> 00:24:40.880 candidate to be non -tendered, even though his 00:24:40.880 --> 00:24:44.240 salary is low at $1 .2 million. The problem is 00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:46.259 his production just isn't worth a 40 -man spot 00:24:46.259 --> 00:24:49.220 right now. He posted a negative war. And after 00:24:49.220 --> 00:24:51.259 an elbow injury, his defense behind the plate 00:24:51.259 --> 00:24:53.579 became completely unplayable. They just can't 00:24:53.579 --> 00:24:55.579 carry that. Not when they need those spots for 00:24:55.579 --> 00:24:57.779 Rule 5 protection. And out on the West Coast, 00:24:57.980 --> 00:24:59.960 the Giants have to make a call on Joey Lucchese. 00:25:00.140 --> 00:25:01.940 Who's projected at $2 million. He was actually 00:25:01.940 --> 00:25:07.109 pretty solid in 2025. A 3 .76 ERA. He was. But 00:25:07.109 --> 00:25:09.289 the fact that he's still listed as a non -tender 00:25:09.289 --> 00:25:12.410 risk just underscores how acutely teams are managing 00:25:12.410 --> 00:25:15.230 their relief core budgets. If they see a cheaper, 00:25:15.309 --> 00:25:17.329 higher upside minor leaguer they need to protect, 00:25:17.809 --> 00:25:21.130 Lucchese becomes expendable. Moving past the 00:25:21.130 --> 00:25:24.230 non -tender crunch, that 40 -man roster construction 00:25:24.230 --> 00:25:27.109 is also being fiercely driven by the upcoming 00:25:27.109 --> 00:25:30.170 Rule 5 draft. Teams are racing to clear space 00:25:30.170 --> 00:25:33.160 to protect their highest upside prospects. We 00:25:33.160 --> 00:25:34.960 saw a brilliant move from the Mets here. The 00:25:34.960 --> 00:25:37.859 Frankie Montas move. Yeah. They designated and 00:25:37.859 --> 00:25:40.380 released Montas, who's owed $17 million next 00:25:40.380 --> 00:25:43.400 year but is out due to UCL surgery. They immediately 00:25:43.400 --> 00:25:46.220 used that spot to select the contract of outfielder 00:25:46.220 --> 00:25:48.720 Nick Morabito. So the Mets decided the 40 -man 00:25:48.720 --> 00:25:51.279 spot was far more valuable than the sunk cost 00:25:51.279 --> 00:25:53.920 of Montas' salary. And Morabito is a high reward 00:25:53.920 --> 00:25:56.119 protection. He's got plus speed, a strong bat. 00:25:56.259 --> 00:25:58.839 He hit .362 in the fall league. He would have 00:25:58.839 --> 00:26:00.640 absolutely been claimed in the Rule 5 draft. 00:26:00.880 --> 00:26:02.660 Now contrast that with the difficult decisions 00:26:02.660 --> 00:26:05.359 facing the Detroit Tigers. They have three critical 00:26:05.359 --> 00:26:09.180 Rule 5 eligible prospects. And the toughest one 00:26:09.180 --> 00:26:12.240 centers on switch hitting catcher Theron Lorenzo. 00:26:12.440 --> 00:26:16.000 He has rare 70 grade power, which is truly elite. 00:26:16.140 --> 00:26:18.930 If the Tigers expose him. He is guaranteed to 00:26:18.930 --> 00:26:21.029 be selected. They have to protect him. Then there's 00:26:21.029 --> 00:26:23.769 infielder Howie Lee. Lee's a disciplined hitter, 00:26:23.789 --> 00:26:25.690 had a strong double -A run, but he's blocked 00:26:25.690 --> 00:26:28.230 in the system. Given that he was acquired in 00:26:28.230 --> 00:26:30.069 the Michael Lorenzen trade, they're unlikely 00:26:30.069 --> 00:26:32.529 to expose him. They invested assets in him. And 00:26:32.529 --> 00:26:35.430 the final piece of their dilemma is Eduardo Valencia. 00:26:35.799 --> 00:26:37.980 Valencia is a catcher first baseman whose power 00:26:37.980 --> 00:26:41.720 exploded in 2025 with 24 homers. But his catching 00:26:41.720 --> 00:26:44.160 defense is poor and he's completely blocked at 00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:46.579 first base by Spencer Torkelson. So do you dedicate 00:26:46.579 --> 00:26:49.259 a valuable 40 -man spot to a backup first baseman 00:26:49.259 --> 00:26:51.720 with defensive limitations? Or do you risk exposing 00:26:51.720 --> 00:26:54.079 him? It's a tough call because that 40 -man spot 00:26:54.079 --> 00:26:57.000 is just so precious. We're seeing organizations 00:26:57.000 --> 00:26:59.960 prioritize protection based on upside, even when 00:26:59.960 --> 00:27:02.339 health is a factor. The Pirates protected Jack 00:27:02.339 --> 00:27:04.420 Branigan, even though he suffered a torn labrum. 00:27:04.539 --> 00:27:06.980 Right. That decision signals their faith in his 00:27:06.980 --> 00:27:09.119 upside. They view him as a foundational piece, 00:27:09.339 --> 00:27:12.220 even if he misses the start of next season. Conversely, 00:27:12.240 --> 00:27:14.559 the Braves are likely exposing right -hander 00:27:14.559 --> 00:27:19.180 Ian Magia, despite his 2 .62 ERA in AA. And the 00:27:19.180 --> 00:27:22.519 reason is his stuff profile. It lacks high velocity 00:27:22.519 --> 00:27:25.680 and bat -missing ability, which gives him a lower 00:27:25.680 --> 00:27:27.839 ceiling and makes him less likely to stick on 00:27:27.839 --> 00:27:30.380 a Rule 5 roster for a full season. Let's zoom 00:27:30.380 --> 00:27:32.680 out now and examine the broader organizational 00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:35.720 changes sweeping across the league, starting 00:27:35.720 --> 00:27:37.960 with the St. Louis Cardinals, who are undergoing 00:27:37.960 --> 00:27:40.700 a major culture shift under their new president 00:27:40.700 --> 00:27:43.609 of baseball operations, Shane Bloom. Bloom's 00:27:43.609 --> 00:27:45.970 arrival is leading to immediate structural changes. 00:27:46.230 --> 00:27:49.069 We saw the firing of Russ Steinhorn, their former 00:27:49.069 --> 00:27:51.589 minor league hitting coordinator. Steinhorn himself 00:27:51.589 --> 00:27:53.630 has spoken very highly of Bloom's intelligence 00:27:53.630 --> 00:27:56.049 and competitiveness. He believes Bloom will use 00:27:56.049 --> 00:27:58.329 his experience to return the Cardinals to prominence. 00:27:58.349 --> 00:28:00.170 Right. This is about changing the philosophy 00:28:00.170 --> 00:28:03.130 from within, supplementing that traditional Cardinals 00:28:03.130 --> 00:28:05.829 farm system with high value outside talent. And 00:28:05.829 --> 00:28:08.109 Steinhorn also provided some insight into their 00:28:08.109 --> 00:28:10.690 internal talent, specifically touting the potential 00:28:10.690 --> 00:28:13.640 of J .J. Weatherholt. Weatherholt is viewed internally 00:28:13.640 --> 00:28:16.720 as a bona fide star in the making. His impending 00:28:16.720 --> 00:28:18.859 arrival, though, only highlights the Cardinals' 00:28:18.980 --> 00:28:22.619 immediate glaring need, the outfield. Following 00:28:22.619 --> 00:28:25.099 the likely trade of Brendan Donovan, their outfield 00:28:25.099 --> 00:28:27.920 situation is described internally as rather bad. 00:28:28.160 --> 00:28:30.299 That's putting it lightly. They are heading toward 00:28:30.299 --> 00:28:33.779 opening day with zero reliable outfielders. This 00:28:33.779 --> 00:28:36.420 desperate need forces them to consider high -risk, 00:28:36.460 --> 00:28:40.000 by -low candidates like Michael Conforto. Conforto 00:28:40.000 --> 00:28:42.660 is the classic reclamation project. He had a 00:28:42.660 --> 00:28:45.759 truly terrible below replacement level season 00:28:45.759 --> 00:28:48.740 in 2025 with the Dodgers. They actually dropped 00:28:48.740 --> 00:28:50.940 him from their playoff roster. But the Cardinals 00:28:50.940 --> 00:28:52.819 are looking at his history. He was a very good 00:28:52.819 --> 00:28:55.420 hitter as recently as 2024. He was. He posted 00:28:55.420 --> 00:28:59.400 a 112 WRC plus dist. That's 12 percent better 00:28:59.400 --> 00:29:01.460 than league average after you adjust for ballpark. 00:29:01.640 --> 00:29:03.680 So the argument is they're betting 17 million 00:29:03.680 --> 00:29:07.109 on one year. hoping his bat bounces back to 2024 00:29:07.109 --> 00:29:09.589 levels, and then he becomes a trade ship at the 00:29:09.589 --> 00:29:11.670 deadline. That's exactly it. He's a left -handed 00:29:11.670 --> 00:29:13.769 hitter, which they need. It's a one -year gamble. 00:29:14.190 --> 00:29:16.650 But it's a high -risk one. His defense in left 00:29:16.650 --> 00:29:19.269 field fell off a cliff last year. If the bat 00:29:19.269 --> 00:29:22.410 doesn't return to form, he is unplayable. Beyond 00:29:22.410 --> 00:29:24.769 the clubs, Major League Baseball is structurally 00:29:24.769 --> 00:29:27.759 changing how we consume the product. finalizing 00:29:27.759 --> 00:29:30.599 these massive new media rights deals. Totals 00:29:30.599 --> 00:29:33.779 nearly $800 million annually over the next three 00:29:33.779 --> 00:29:36.500 years. This is a significant shift in viewing 00:29:36.500 --> 00:29:40.130 habits and revenue streams. NBC, primarily through 00:29:40.130 --> 00:29:42.930 Peacock, has taken over Sunday Night Baseball 00:29:42.930 --> 00:29:44.829 and secured the rights to the Wild Card series. 00:29:45.170 --> 00:29:47.269 They're paying around $200 million a year. So 00:29:47.269 --> 00:29:49.670 that puts premium Sunday night content behind 00:29:49.670 --> 00:29:52.069 a streaming paywall. It does. And then there's 00:29:52.069 --> 00:29:54.349 Netflix, jumping into live baseball action. You 00:29:54.349 --> 00:29:56.450 got the Home Run Derby. The Derby and two additional 00:29:56.450 --> 00:29:59.450 live games for about $50 million annually. This 00:29:59.450 --> 00:30:02.069 just shows MLB's commitment to tapping into these 00:30:02.069 --> 00:30:04.869 massive, non -traditional platforms. Meanwhile, 00:30:05.109 --> 00:30:07.509 ESPN, which has been the cornerstone of national 00:30:07.509 --> 00:30:10.390 broadcasts, They lost all postseason games and 00:30:10.390 --> 00:30:13.809 the Derby. They did. What they retained was MLB 00:30:13.809 --> 00:30:16.470 TV rights, the crucial out -of -market streaming 00:30:16.470 --> 00:30:19.529 service, and a 30 -game midweek package. They're 00:30:19.529 --> 00:30:22.650 paying $550 million for this new bundle. And 00:30:22.650 --> 00:30:25.410 crucially, they're also handling in -market streaming 00:30:25.410 --> 00:30:28.930 for six specific teams whose broadcast rights 00:30:28.930 --> 00:30:32.829 are now produced by MLB itself. The Padres, Rockies, 00:30:32.990 --> 00:30:35.650 Diamondbacks, Guardians, Twins, and Mariners. 00:30:35.849 --> 00:30:37.970 Let's discuss the financial consequence, though. 00:30:38.269 --> 00:30:42.130 Because while $800 million sounds enormous, MLB 00:30:42.130 --> 00:30:44.970 reportedly took a significant haircut compared 00:30:44.970 --> 00:30:47.849 to the previous deals. They did. MLB's total 00:30:47.849 --> 00:30:50.269 national rights revenue is projected to be about 00:30:50.269 --> 00:30:53.650 $300 million annually less than what ESPN was 00:30:53.650 --> 00:30:56.089 paying for its previous full package. And that 00:30:56.089 --> 00:30:58.329 reduction in national revenue has significant 00:30:58.329 --> 00:31:00.829 long -term implications, doesn't it? Oh, absolutely. 00:31:01.109 --> 00:31:03.490 That $300 million reduction means less national 00:31:03.490 --> 00:31:05.089 revenue is flowing into the central distribution 00:31:05.089 --> 00:31:07.769 pool. Since revenue sharing is based on total 00:31:07.769 --> 00:31:10.130 league revenue, this puts pressure on teams, 00:31:10.250 --> 00:31:12.269 especially those in smaller markets. Who rely 00:31:12.269 --> 00:31:14.690 on those national checks to offset local revenue 00:31:14.690 --> 00:31:17.990 deficiencies. Right. While the effect isn't immediate, 00:31:18.150 --> 00:31:20.589 it increases the urgency for smaller market teams 00:31:20.589 --> 00:31:23.990 to maximize their local TV contracts. It further 00:31:23.990 --> 00:31:26.390 justifies why we see teams like the Royals making 00:31:26.390 --> 00:31:29.269 brutal, cost -saving decisions on players like 00:31:29.269 --> 00:31:31.990 Jonathan India. The financial margins are just 00:31:31.990 --> 00:31:34.150 becoming thinner for everyone outside the top 00:31:34.150 --> 00:31:37.670 few markets. That is a deep insight. Before we 00:31:37.670 --> 00:31:39.569 wrap up, let's quickly cover some of the fun 00:31:39.569 --> 00:31:41.789 and interesting news items surrounding the World 00:31:41.789 --> 00:31:44.190 Series champion Dodgers. Mookie Betts, who is 00:31:44.190 --> 00:31:47.349 33 now, wrapped up his 12th season and his second 00:31:47.349 --> 00:31:50.029 straight World Series win, even with a down year 00:31:50.029 --> 00:31:52.910 at the plate where he hit just .258. He's just 00:31:52.910 --> 00:31:55.609 a veteran leader. And the high praise for Shohei 00:31:55.609 --> 00:31:58.230 Ohtani continues. He got his second World Series 00:31:58.230 --> 00:32:01.970 title and fourth MVP award. LeBron James even 00:32:01.970 --> 00:32:04.710 compared Ohtani's dominance in baseball to Stephen 00:32:04.710 --> 00:32:07.309 Curry's revolutionary influence in the NBA. Which 00:32:07.309 --> 00:32:09.910 is about as high as praise gets. It is. And if 00:32:09.910 --> 00:32:11.410 you're looking for a piece of that history, the 00:32:11.410 --> 00:32:13.690 auction market is already hot. Artifacts from 00:32:13.690 --> 00:32:16.250 Game 7. Will Smith's home run ball is bid at 00:32:16.250 --> 00:32:19.849 $130 ,000 and Miguel Rojas' homer ball is at 00:32:19.849 --> 00:32:22.809 $70 ,000. Incredible. Looking ahead, we have 00:32:22.809 --> 00:32:26.250 the film Homecoming, the Tokyo series, chronicling 00:32:26.250 --> 00:32:29.210 that Dodgers -Cubs season opener in Japan. That's 00:32:29.210 --> 00:32:31.089 going to be great. It really highlights the globalization 00:32:31.089 --> 00:32:34.609 of the game. And closer to home, MLB is bringing 00:32:34.609 --> 00:32:37.750 back the Field Dreams game in Dyersville, Iowa 00:32:37.750 --> 00:32:42.009 on August 13th, 2026. Minnesota Twins and the 00:32:42.009 --> 00:32:44.509 Philadelphia Phillies. A lovely nod to tradition. 00:32:44.769 --> 00:32:47.559 It is. And finally, we had that fascinating hypothetical 00:32:47.559 --> 00:32:51.000 where a fan, acting as the Rockies' GM, tried 00:32:51.000 --> 00:32:53.059 to rebuild the franchise. It was an interesting 00:32:53.059 --> 00:32:55.640 case study. The hypothetical GM signed Reese 00:32:55.640 --> 00:32:58.940 Hoskins to a three -year, $30 .6 million deal. 00:32:59.160 --> 00:33:01.220 Hoping Coors Field would boost his power. Right. 00:33:01.220 --> 00:33:03.720 And then dramatically claimed Royce Lewis off 00:33:03.720 --> 00:33:06.299 waivers from the Twins. In that simulation, the 00:33:06.299 --> 00:33:09.079 Rockies finished the offseason adding 7 .7 war, 00:33:09.299 --> 00:33:12.160 which was second only to the Yankees' 8 .2 war 00:33:12.160 --> 00:33:15.220 game. It just shows that aggressive, high upside 00:33:15.220 --> 00:33:18.500 moves, even if they carry risk, can drastically 00:33:18.500 --> 00:33:21.160 change a team's outlook. A bold thought experiment 00:33:21.160 --> 00:33:23.160 for a franchise that desperately needs momentum. 00:33:23.460 --> 00:33:26.380 What an intense week of transactions, and it's 00:33:26.380 --> 00:33:29.700 all driven less by rumor and more by these ironclad 00:33:29.700 --> 00:33:32.420 deadlines. The pace of movement around this November 00:33:32.420 --> 00:33:35.039 20th timeline, specifically the non -tender crunch 00:33:35.039 --> 00:33:38.119 and the Rule 5 protection efforts, it just proves 00:33:38.119 --> 00:33:40.660 that financial pressures dictate action. The 00:33:40.660 --> 00:33:43.480 key takeaway for me is the stark separation we're 00:33:43.480 --> 00:33:45.680 seeing between the contenders and those still 00:33:45.680 --> 00:33:48.039 rebuilding. The Orioles were willing to move 00:33:48.039 --> 00:33:50.980 four years of cost -controlled pitching for one 00:33:50.980 --> 00:33:53.380 year of immediate impact. While the Angels were 00:33:53.380 --> 00:33:55.460 desperate to absorb that high -risk control. 00:33:55.700 --> 00:33:58.460 Exactly. And meanwhile, you have the Astros and 00:33:58.460 --> 00:34:00.579 the Yankees maneuvering around fractions of millions 00:34:00.579 --> 00:34:02.460 of dollars so they can afford the next massive 00:34:02.460 --> 00:34:05.950 star. The urgency is just palpable. And those 00:34:05.950 --> 00:34:08.309 accepted qualifying offers, especially Shota 00:34:08.309 --> 00:34:10.670 Imanaga's surprise acceptance by the Cubs, that 00:34:10.670 --> 00:34:12.710 has undeniably tightened the purse strings for 00:34:12.710 --> 00:34:15.449 the top spenders. It's making their next decision 00:34:15.449 --> 00:34:17.949 significantly harder. Which raises an important 00:34:17.949 --> 00:34:20.250 question for you, the listener, to mull over. 00:34:20.690 --> 00:34:23.650 Given the surprising impact of those accepted 00:34:23.650 --> 00:34:27.630 QOs on team budgets and flexibility, forcing 00:34:27.630 --> 00:34:30.349 clubs like the Cubs and Yankees to recalculate, 00:34:30.469 --> 00:34:34.289 what percentage of the remaining major free agents? 00:34:34.760 --> 00:34:37.019 your Bellingers, your Alonzos, your Baldises, 00:34:37.079 --> 00:34:39.599 do you think will actually sign before the end 00:34:39.599 --> 00:34:41.639 of the calendar year? That's a great question. 00:34:41.920 --> 00:34:44.460 Will the urgency of spring training force them 00:34:44.460 --> 00:34:47.260 to sign anyway? Or will the Titan purse strings 00:34:47.260 --> 00:34:50.239 drag this market well into January? It's going 00:34:50.239 --> 00:34:52.500 to be fascinating to watch. That's a great thought 00:34:52.500 --> 00:34:54.480 to close on. The dominoes have started falling, 00:34:54.579 --> 00:34:56.280 but it sounds like the biggest ones might be 00:34:56.280 --> 00:34:58.519 stuck until the new year. We'll be tracking all 00:34:58.519 --> 00:35:00.619 the moves and deadlines right here on the Baseball 00:35:00.619 --> 00:35:02.800 Podcast. We appreciate you joining us for this 00:35:02.800 --> 00:35:04.159 analysis. Until next time.