Welcome to the Baseball Podcast. It is November
20th. And if you follow Major League Baseball,
you know this isn't just the hot stove heating
up. Oh, no. This is the pressure cooker. It's
a pressure cooker moment of the offseason calendar.
Exactly. All these deadlines are driving the
action. They're forcing front offices to make
commitments that are going to shape their rosters
and their payrolls for the next few years. That's
the critical distinction right there. We are,
you know, we're past the... purely speculative
rumor mill phase. Right. We're into the part
where financial and contractual realities, they
bite. We just saw it with the qualifying offer
deadline. Four surprising acceptances, and that
immediately tightens up budgets across the league.
And we've got the non -tender deadline looming
just days away. That's another one that forces
these really tough strategic financial decisions.
Yeah, on players they might otherwise want to
keep. It's that volatility, you know, that's
making the trade market move at, well, breakneck
speed right now. It really is. We have a massive
amount of material to sift through today. We're
going to start with the flurry of moves from
Atlanta and Houston. Then there's that true blockbuster
trade between the Orioles and Angels that we
have to break down. Oh, the risk versus control
on that one is fascinating. It is. And of course,
the big names, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonzo, and
the starting pitcher everyone wants, Karek Skubal.
So our mission today is to really give you the
context and I think the financial clarity behind
these transactions. Like, why is Baltimore willing
to trade away four years of control for one year
of a slugger? How does shedding, you know, $7
million in salaries suddenly become the most
important move for a team chasing a $300 million
free agent? We're going to unpack those strategic
decisions and hopefully provide the insight you
need to understand what truly matters most in
the league right now. Let's jump right in with
the team that always seems to operate ahead of
the curve. The Atlanta Braves. Their GM, Alex
Anthopoulos, has this history of trying to secure
known commodities early to kind of insulate his
team from the chaos. Yeah, he hates getting caught
in the peak free agency market. He wants his
guys locked in. And he executed that philosophy
immediately. by locking down his elite closer,
Raizel Iglesias. This was a huge piece of business
for them. And it tells you a lot about where
the market is for those high leverage bullpen
arms. It's a fantastic signal. Iglesias re -signed
with the Braves on a one year, $16 million deal.
And that AAV, the annual average value, that
is definitely at the top end of what people projected.
But it's a reflection of the demand. Oh, the
intense demand. And when we talk about demand,
we're talking about serious, heavy hitting contenders
who are all in on him. Right. He reportedly turned
down offers at that exact same $16 million figure
from both the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. And
the Mets and Orioles were in there, too. Heavily.
So when you see three or four serious contenders
all willing to pay that premium for... Just a
single year of relief work. It tells you everything
about how front offices value late game security.
Especially heading into the final year of this
current CBA cycle. It also tells you about the
confidence the Braves have in him, even though
2025 is a bit of an uneven season for him. Well,
the final stat line was good, a 3 .21 ERA, 29
saves. But that doesn't really tell the whole
story, does it? Not at all. He started a little
slow, but then he just found his groove. Over
his final 45 outings of the season, his ERA plummeted
to an incredible 1 .25. Wow. That dominance,
especially late in the season when the games
really mattered, that's what secured this massive
contract. It was an essential move for Atlanta,
especially since their bullpen already has some
question marks. Like Joe Jimenez recovering from
shoulder surgery. Exactly. You need that anchor
at the back end. So securing the closer was the
anchor move, but then right after... Atlanta
made a slightly more subtle strategic trade.
They swapped utility infielders with the Houston
Astros. Mauricio Dubon for Nick Allen. And this
trade, it really shines a light on what contenders
prioritize versus what financially constrained
teams need to do. Precisely. For Atlanta, this
acquisition is all about defensive versatility
and having a reliable offensive floor off your
bench. Dubon is a former Gold Glove winner. He
swings right -handed. He can play second, third,
short. And even give you emergency coverage in
center field. I mean, that level of flexibility
is pure gold for a deep roster. And the offensive
component is key here. Dubon's bet did decline
a little bit in 2025. Yeah, he hit .241. Not
great. But his floor is still higher than what
the Braves typically get from their deep reserves.
Absolutely. Think about the scenarios he covers.
He can spell Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley to
keep them fresh. And maybe most strategically,
if the Braves are unable to land their top target
at shortstop, let's say Hassan Kim signs somewhere
else. Dudon gives them a capable, proven option
at the position. It mitigates the panic. He's
the insurance policy that allows Anthopolis to
operate with patience in the rest of the market.
OK, now let's flip it. Let's look at the Houston
side, because this is where the financial motivation
just becomes so explicit. This is a textbook
salary dump. It's designed to free up margin
money for a much, much bigger fish down the line.
So Dubon was projected to earn, what, six or
seven million dollars in arbitration? Somewhere
in that range, yeah. So by trading him, Houston
immediately shaves that projected salary right
off their ledger. And what they get back is Nick
Allen, who is, to be fair, an elite defender.
Oh, he's incredible with the glove. Few fielders
in baseball are better than him at shortstop.
But the offense is, to put it kindly, abysmal.
Brutal, actually. Allen was easily the worst
qualified hitter in baseball last year. Among
players with 400 or more plate appearances in
2025, right? That's right. He hit .211 with zero
home runs. Zero. In 416 plate appearances, you
just cannot survive offensively with that in
an everyday role. So Houston saves $6 to $7 million.
They get a cost -controlled, defensively pristine,
but cheaper utility guy. The trade isn't about
improving the roster today. It's about creating
financial space for the expensive, necessary
improvements they have to make this offseason.
Which primarily means their pursuit of P. Alonzo,
which we'll get to later. Exactly. So shedding
$7 million might sound small in the grand scheme
of a, you know, $200 million payroll. But when
you're trying to land a guy who's going to demand
$30 million a year. Every margin counts. It's
all about staying under those crucial luxury
tax thresholds. It's the difference between being
able to offer Alonzo 32 million AAV or only 25
million AAV. Every single dollar of flexibility
gained from a move like this, it can be immediately
converted into higher offers for their top targets.
Speaking of calculated risks, Atlanta also had
the Davis -Daniel experiment. This one really
demonstrates the razor -thin margin between...
finding cheap, reliable depth and, well, acquiring
a player who just collapses under pressure. Daniel
was an offseason pickup from the Angels for a
younger prospect, Mitch Ferris. And the rationale
was sound. In 2024 with the Angels, Daniel had
a solid 4 .16 FIP fielding independent pitching.
So his defense wasn't carrying him. Not at all.
And crucially, he had fantastic control. His
walk rate was below 5%. That profile just screams
solid, cheap, fifth starter. or long reliever
depth. But when he put on the Braves uniform
in 2025, the wheels just fell off. Completely.
He only made three big league appearances and
the control just vanished. His walk rate spiked
to over 15 percent. His velocity dipped. It was
just as bad in AAA. He was amplified in AAA.
His ERA, FIP, XFIP, they were all above 5 .000
across 100 innings. The Braves just couldn't
tolerate that kind of drop off. So the end result
was him being outrighted and electing free agency.
The Braves basically gave up a prospect for a
three month rental that never panned out. It's
a harsh lesson, but a necessary one. Acquiring
reliable depth is incredibly difficult. Front
offices are constantly looking for those diamonds
in the rough, but often players like Daniel who
have one great trait, they just lose it. Which
really underscores the Orioles' decision, which
we're moving to next, to trade a high -value
prospect for a known quantity. It's such a high
-stakes aggressive move. So if the Braves' moves
were all about calculated security, the trade
between the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles
Angels, This was desperation meeting ambition.
Absolutely. The Orioles traded former first round
pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez for one year
of slugger Taylor Ward. And this immediately
shows you two organizations moving in totally
different, almost contradictory. This is a true
blockbuster based on differing timelines. For
Baltimore, a team that's been building up this
young core, this just screams maximum urgency.
They are trading four years of cost -controlled
high upside pitching. Rodriguez is controlled
until 2029. Right. For a single year of Taylor
Ward, who's going to cost him probably $14 million
in arbitration. That is an aggressive win -now
calculation. You give up four years of control
for one year of a bat. And Ward is the thump
they need. But they have young outfielders like
Colton Couser and Heston Kierstad already in
the wings. Well, the Orioles' internal clock
is ringing loudly. Their window of contention
is wide open now, and they need proven offensive
production. Ward brings a high offensive floor
and immediate production that maybe they don't
trust from Couser or Kierstad yet in October.
He's also very versatile. Extremely. He can play
both corner outfield spots, handle DH duties.
It gives them flexibility. This move says, We
have pitching depth in the minors and we need
to maximize our World Series chances while Adley
Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are still on their
rookie contracts. On the flip side, the Angels
took on significant risk, but for potentially
massive reward. A huge reward. They acquired
a high upside pitcher who has a major health
history. I mean, Rodriguez is a former top prospect
with 100 mile per hour fastball and a wicked
slider. But. And this is a big bite. He missed
the entire 2025 season after getting hurt in
2024 and then having surgery to remove bone spurs.
And their GM, Perry Menezian, he acknowledges
this health gamble. But the appeal of getting
four years of potential ace -level pitching control
was just too enticing to resist. The Angels need
an identity, and high upside pitching is a great
place to start. So it's basically a bet that
the surgery resolved the underlying issue, right?
That's the hope. Rodriguez himself has been very
optimistic. He said the bone spurs were the root
cause of the issues that led to his lat injuries,
and with them removed, he's targeting a full
recovery. He expects to be ready for spring training.
And if he returns to form. The Angels win this
trade, overwhelmingly. If he suffers another
setback, the Orioles look brilliant for trading
him at his peak prospect value. This trade also
has immediate roster fallout for the Angels,
just, you know, independent of Rodriguez's health.
Ward was their everyday left fielder. And a crucial
run producer. That $14 million salary is now
off the books, which Menasian has said publicly
allows them to pursue free agents more aggressively.
That financial flexibility is critical because
they have enormous holes to fill. They desperately
need another starting pitcher to anchor that
rotation. A rotation that, outside of a few young
arms, is looking pretty thin. And the offense.
They lose Ward's bat. They need a starting outfielder,
probably a center fielder since Joe Adele has
settled into right. Exactly. With Mike Trout
and Jorge Soler more suited for DH or limited
outfield duties, the Angels need an injection
of defense and consistent offense. They freed
up the money to spend, but now they have to spend
it wisely to fill these major gaps. And the Angels...
much like the Houston Astros, are in that difficult
spot where they're trying to spend their way
out of the decline. Yeah, the Astros missed the
playoffs in 2025, which officially ended that
remarkable eight -year run. It felt inevitable,
maybe, but it's still jarring to see. Finishing
87 -75, the steady decline in wins from 100 to
90, 88, and now 87. It just shows that slow erosion
of their core. And losing Alex Bregman and Kyle
Tucker last offseason was massive. Now all -star
Frambois Valdez hits free agency. The cracks
are definitely showing. Their needs are incredibly
specific. Health is a crisis. Jordan Alvarez
only played 48 games. Josh Hader was hurt late.
Ronald Blanco was out until late 2026. The pitching
staff looks very unstable outside of Hunter Brown,
who, you know, he really showed some growth last
year. And the offense. Finishing 21st in runs
scored and 15th in slugging is just... It's unacceptable
for a team with championship aspirations. Even
with a healthy Alvarez, they need a major power
injection to balance that lineup. And this is
why Pete Alonso is such a perfect, almost mandatory
fit for them. Let's elaborate on that fit. Why
Alonso for Houston? Well, it's the ballpark dimensions
and the balance he provides. Alonso hitting balls
into the short porch of the Crawford boxes in
left field is just a dream scenario for them.
He provides immediate 40 homer production. Right.
And combined with Alvarez, it creates a formidable
lefty -righty power combo in the heart of that
order. Getting Alonso would instantly transform
them from a bottom half offense to a top five
offense, assuming health elsewhere. But if they
strike out on Alonso, their need for left -handed
bats is still dire. Their lineup is so right
-heavy. They absolutely have to diversify their
approach. If Alonzo doesn't sign, they have to
look at trade targets like Brendan Donovan or
Brandon Lowe. Both are left -handed bats who
could immediately slot in at second base. Which
would allow Jose Altuve to potentially shift
to left field to mitigate some injury risk. And
lock Alvarez into the DH spot. They need that
kind of switch up to keep pitching staffs honest.
So the next layer of complexity for them is their
trade capital and the financial juggling. We
talked about shedding Dubon's salary, but what
about major assets? Isaac Paredes keeps popping
up in rumors. And GM Dana Brown has been vehemently
denying those rumors. He calls Paredes one of
their best pitch watchers, crucial to their lineup.
But logic dictates that if you're going big for
Alonzo, you need to consolidate assets or clear
even more salary. Right. So if they keep Paredes,
they might need to move veteran players. The
more realistic trade ship, I think, is Christian
Walker. Who will be 35 next season. Exactly.
Trading him saves salary and allows Houston to
shift Paredes to first base. That move clears
the logistical path and the financial space needed
to aggressively pursue a massive contract for
Alonso. It's a move that signals a true regime
change. All right, let's shift to the free agent
market and specifically the decisions that have
already complicated the budgets for half a dozen
teams. The accepted qualifying offers. Yeah,
the acceptance rate this year was surprisingly
high. It injected a serious dose of uncertainty
into the market. Four QOs accepted. That immediately
took four high -value players off the board and
committed over $80 million in guaranteed salary
for next season. Let's start with Brandon Woodruff.
He accepted the Brewers' offer, $22 million for
one year, even after he declined his mutual option.
And $22 million is just a massive figure for
the Brewers' organization. You called it uncharted
territory for them. It is historic for Milwaukee.
because their total annual payroll usually hovers
around, what, $100 to $120 million? Right. Committing
$22 million to a single pitcher is an enormous
percentage of their total budget. It's a fifth
of their typical spending power for one player.
And he's coming off right shoulder surgery and
a last strain, so it's a high -risk commitment.
It is, but his follow -up appointments were successful,
and the organization believes he can anchor that
rotation in the second half of 2026. So they
justified the expense. It's a sign they're serious
about winning, but it instantly eliminates flexibility
for other major signings. That's exactly it.
That $22 million is now unavailable for a much
-needed hitter or a depth starter. They are betting
on internal improvements and Woodruff's health.
But the acceptance that really rattled the divisional
landscape was Shota Imanaga taking the Cubs'
qualifying offer. Oh, that decision was a strategic
curveball the Cubs did not see coming. The prevailing
assumption was that Emunaga would decline and
seek a multi -year deal, probably in the range
of, you know, three years, 70 million. So now
the Coes bring back a strong frontline starter,
which is great competitively. But it immediately
eats up about $22 million of their budget. And
how does that affect their pursuit of other high
-impact guys like Michael King or Dylan Cease?
It fundamentally limits their path forward. It
forces a serious negotiation with the luxury
tax threshold. If the Cubs have Imanaga and then
immediately pivot to acquiring another major
starter, they're almost guaranteed to breach
the next luxury tax tier. Which means higher
penalties, lost draft capital. Exactly. They
have to be far more selective now. They might
prioritize a cheaper high upside reliever or
a mid -tier offensive upgrade rather than entering
a bidding war for Cease, which would push them
deep into penalty territory. And as you pointed
out, their division rival, the Cincinnati Reds,
have to be thrilled that the Cubs are momentarily
off balance. It creates a crucial window of opportunity
for them. If the Cubs are busy recalculating
their budget, the Reds can potentially control
the pace of the offseason. We also saw Gleyber
Torres and Trent Grisham accept their QOs. Grisham's
was over $22 million for the Yankees. And these
are massive numbers for players who are not guaranteed
superstars. The Yankees are pleased to retain
a reliable piece in Grisham, but committing that
$22 million now absolutely impacts their aggressive
pursuit of Cody Bellinger. OK, let's talk about
the true top tier of the market. Cody Bellinger.
He remains the premier position player free agent,
and this New York rivalry is shaping up to be
the story of his free agency. The Yankees are
the clear favorites, full stop. Bellinger had
a tremendous 2025 campaign. He proved he's back
to elite form. He hit .272, slugged 29 home runs,
drove in 98. He is the versatile, left -handed
offensive force the Yankees desperately need
in the middle of their lineup. Rival execs view
him as the most valuable remaining bat. But the
New York Mets and Steve Cohen are just lurking,
ready to spoil the party. If the Yankees hesitate,
either over the years on the contract or because
of luxury tax concerns after Grisham's acceptance,
the Mets are ready to strike. Cohen has shown
a willingness to swoop in and steal a star. And
Bellinger fits the Mets' shifting identity perfectly.
They need athleticism, contact skills, high -quality
defense. Especially if they lose their other
star slugger, Pete Alonso. Which takes us right
to Alonso. If the Mets can't keep the polar bear,
where does he land? The Boston Red Sox have been
reported as the strongest contender for Alonzo
if he leaves Queens. That is a massive statement
of intent from the Red Sox. His power would play
perfectly at Fenway. Oh, absolutely. And as we
discussed, the Astros view him as an essential
prime fit for their power -starved lineup because
of the Crawford boxes. This is a three -team
race with incredible urgency from all sides.
Switching to pitching. The hottest name on the
trade market and arguably the most impactful
pitcher available is the two -time AL Cy Young
winner, Tarek Skubal. The Tigers are gauging
his value. And the interest is bordering on frantic.
Skubal is the trade ace. Insider reports have
identified the Mets as a perfect landing spot
largely because Steve Cohen doesn't just want
an ace. He wants the ace. And he's willing to
pay the massive prospect capital and then immediately
offer an extension. Exactly. The Red Sox are
also heavily in the mix. Scooball's presence
on the trade block is slowing down the entire
pitching market. Which brings us to the Minnesota
Twins, who have two co -aces, Joe Ryan and Pablo
Lopez, both potentially available. But their
trade market is completely dependent on Scooball.
The Twins are navigating an ownership transition,
complicating their long -term spending plans.
And they have these two incredibly valuable,
cost -controlled pitchers. And national reports
strongly suggest that they will deal one, but
not both, before their team control runs out
in 2027. But no team is going to offer a premium
package for Ryan or Lopez until the Scooble situation
is resolved. Why does Scooble's market specifically
depress their value? Because if a team can acquire
a proven two -time Cy Young winner like Scooble,
they're taking themselves out of the bidding
for that next tier. Ryan is high value, but Lopez's
value is already a little depressed due to health
concerns. If the Mets or Red Sox land Scooble,
the demand for Ryan immediately falls and the
Twins have to accept a lesser return. So the
market's just in a holding pattern. Waiting for
Detroit. Finally, let's analyze the closer market,
specifically the tier just below the elite guys
like Edwin Diaz. Devin Williams is creating a
lot of chatter. especially about a possible reunion
with the Yankees. Williams had a surprisingly
tumultuous 2025. He had a 4 .79 ERA, lost his
closing duties in late July. On the surface,
those numbers are terrible. They are. But if
you dig into the underlying metrics, his elite
level stuff is still there. His strand rate,
which is the percentage of runners he leaves
on base, plummeted from a career high of 83 percent
to just 55 percent. So that screams massive bad
luck. Exactly. Teams are viewing him as a high
upside by low candidate. The Yankees are discussing
bringing him back on a team friendly deal. But
other teams like the Dodgers, Reds and Red Sox
are connected. They see an opportunity here.
And the Orioles, despite trading for Ward, they
still desperately need bullpen help. Their bullpen
has been gutted by injuries and trades. They're
in a dire position. They are actively hunting
for high leverage options to establish a committee
approach. So guys like Kyle Finnegan. Finnegan,
who benefited from sharing duties in Detroit.
Or they might look at established names like
Pete Fairbanks or Ryan Helsley to solidify that
committee heading into spring training. OK, as
we approach Friday's non -tender deadline, the
pressure to make these painful financial decisions
is just mounting. This is the deadline that forces
teams to weigh a player's projected arbitration
salary against their actual performance. And
the value of their 40 -man roster spot. This
is where marginal decisions become existential.
For clubs trying to manage the luxury tax, even
a few million dollars saved can open up space
for a much bigger signing. Let's look at the
Yankees. Despite their enormous wealth. They
are strategically trying to clear space. And
the biggest name facing a tough decision is high
-salary reliever Camilo Duval, who's projected
to get $6 .6 million in arbitration. That's a
significant number. It is. His performance just
wasn't consistently strong enough to justify
that salary for a non -closer role, especially
if the Yankees are planning on acquiring a high
-impact reliever. Or even re -signing Devin Williams.
Exactly. By non -tendering Duval, they save that
$6 .6 million, which can then be immediately
reallocated. It's a ruthless calculation based
purely on opportunity cost. They're also looking
at Mark Leiter Jr., projected at $3 million,
and Oswaldo Cabrera at $1 .2 million. Cabrera's
number is small, but his versatility might not
be enough to save him. The Yankees have a crowded
infield, and if they can use that 40 -man spot
for a higher upside pitching prospect... They
might just cut ties. The dilemma facing the Kansas
City Royals at second base perfectly illustrates
the burden of bad contracts for small market
teams. Oh, this is a classic resource allocation
problem. They are struggling with what to do
about Jonathan India and Michael Massey. If they
keep both, they're committing nearly $10 million.
to a second base platoon that was, frankly, below
replacement level in 2025. And for the Royals,
who operate on a tight budget, $10 million tied
up in below -average production is just crippling.
So what are the painful options? Well, non -tendering
India would free up most of that salary, but
it leaves a massive hole at second. Non -tendering
Massey saves less money, but he has more team
control remaining. They have to decide whether
to eat the $10 million or risk losing a potential
trade asset. And across the league, the Cincinnati
Reds face a similar situation with former top
prospect Gavin Lux. Lux is projected to earn
$5 million. That is a steep price for a player
who ended 2025 as a below -replacement -level
contributor. He hit .269 with only five home
runs. And the defensive shift is the killer here,
right? He's primarily a left fielder now. Which
severely diminishes his value compared to when
he was an infielder. With a crowded outfield,
the Reds will almost certainly non -tender him.
They'll bet that $5 million is better spent elsewhere.
The Guardians have an agonizing decision with
the fan favorite, David Frye. He's a realistic
candidate to be non -tendered, even though his
salary is low at $1 .2 million. The problem is
his production just isn't worth a 40 -man spot
right now. He posted a negative war. And after
an elbow injury, his defense behind the plate
became completely unplayable. They just can't
carry that. Not when they need those spots for
Rule 5 protection. And out on the West Coast,
the Giants have to make a call on Joey Lucchese.
Who's projected at $2 million. He was actually
pretty solid in 2025. A 3 .76 ERA. He was. But
the fact that he's still listed as a non -tender
risk just underscores how acutely teams are managing
their relief core budgets. If they see a cheaper,
higher upside minor leaguer they need to protect,
Lucchese becomes expendable. Moving past the
non -tender crunch, that 40 -man roster construction
is also being fiercely driven by the upcoming
Rule 5 draft. Teams are racing to clear space
to protect their highest upside prospects. We
saw a brilliant move from the Mets here. The
Frankie Montas move. Yeah. They designated and
released Montas, who's owed $17 million next
year but is out due to UCL surgery. They immediately
used that spot to select the contract of outfielder
Nick Morabito. So the Mets decided the 40 -man
spot was far more valuable than the sunk cost
of Montas' salary. And Morabito is a high reward
protection. He's got plus speed, a strong bat.
He hit .362 in the fall league. He would have
absolutely been claimed in the Rule 5 draft.
Now contrast that with the difficult decisions
facing the Detroit Tigers. They have three critical
Rule 5 eligible prospects. And the toughest one
centers on switch hitting catcher Theron Lorenzo.
He has rare 70 grade power, which is truly elite.
If the Tigers expose him. He is guaranteed to
be selected. They have to protect him. Then there's
infielder Howie Lee. Lee's a disciplined hitter,
had a strong double -A run, but he's blocked
in the system. Given that he was acquired in
the Michael Lorenzen trade, they're unlikely
to expose him. They invested assets in him. And
the final piece of their dilemma is Eduardo Valencia.
Valencia is a catcher first baseman whose power
exploded in 2025 with 24 homers. But his catching
defense is poor and he's completely blocked at
first base by Spencer Torkelson. So do you dedicate
a valuable 40 -man spot to a backup first baseman
with defensive limitations? Or do you risk exposing
him? It's a tough call because that 40 -man spot
is just so precious. We're seeing organizations
prioritize protection based on upside, even when
health is a factor. The Pirates protected Jack
Branigan, even though he suffered a torn labrum.
Right. That decision signals their faith in his
upside. They view him as a foundational piece,
even if he misses the start of next season. Conversely,
the Braves are likely exposing right -hander
Ian Magia, despite his 2 .62 ERA in AA. And the
reason is his stuff profile. It lacks high velocity
and bat -missing ability, which gives him a lower
ceiling and makes him less likely to stick on
a Rule 5 roster for a full season. Let's zoom
out now and examine the broader organizational
changes sweeping across the league, starting
with the St. Louis Cardinals, who are undergoing
a major culture shift under their new president
of baseball operations, Shane Bloom. Bloom's
arrival is leading to immediate structural changes.
We saw the firing of Russ Steinhorn, their former
minor league hitting coordinator. Steinhorn himself
has spoken very highly of Bloom's intelligence
and competitiveness. He believes Bloom will use
his experience to return the Cardinals to prominence.
Right. This is about changing the philosophy
from within, supplementing that traditional Cardinals
farm system with high value outside talent. And
Steinhorn also provided some insight into their
internal talent, specifically touting the potential
of J .J. Weatherholt. Weatherholt is viewed internally
as a bona fide star in the making. His impending
arrival, though, only highlights the Cardinals'
immediate glaring need, the outfield. Following
the likely trade of Brendan Donovan, their outfield
situation is described internally as rather bad.
That's putting it lightly. They are heading toward
opening day with zero reliable outfielders. This
desperate need forces them to consider high -risk,
by -low candidates like Michael Conforto. Conforto
is the classic reclamation project. He had a
truly terrible below replacement level season
in 2025 with the Dodgers. They actually dropped
him from their playoff roster. But the Cardinals
are looking at his history. He was a very good
hitter as recently as 2024. He was. He posted
a 112 WRC plus dist. That's 12 percent better
than league average after you adjust for ballpark.
So the argument is they're betting 17 million
on one year. hoping his bat bounces back to 2024
levels, and then he becomes a trade ship at the
deadline. That's exactly it. He's a left -handed
hitter, which they need. It's a one -year gamble.
But it's a high -risk one. His defense in left
field fell off a cliff last year. If the bat
doesn't return to form, he is unplayable. Beyond
the clubs, Major League Baseball is structurally
changing how we consume the product. finalizing
these massive new media rights deals. Totals
nearly $800 million annually over the next three
years. This is a significant shift in viewing
habits and revenue streams. NBC, primarily through
Peacock, has taken over Sunday Night Baseball
and secured the rights to the Wild Card series.
They're paying around $200 million a year. So
that puts premium Sunday night content behind
a streaming paywall. It does. And then there's
Netflix, jumping into live baseball action. You
got the Home Run Derby. The Derby and two additional
live games for about $50 million annually. This
just shows MLB's commitment to tapping into these
massive, non -traditional platforms. Meanwhile,
ESPN, which has been the cornerstone of national
broadcasts, They lost all postseason games and
the Derby. They did. What they retained was MLB
TV rights, the crucial out -of -market streaming
service, and a 30 -game midweek package. They're
paying $550 million for this new bundle. And
crucially, they're also handling in -market streaming
for six specific teams whose broadcast rights
are now produced by MLB itself. The Padres, Rockies,
Diamondbacks, Guardians, Twins, and Mariners.
Let's discuss the financial consequence, though.
Because while $800 million sounds enormous, MLB
reportedly took a significant haircut compared
to the previous deals. They did. MLB's total
national rights revenue is projected to be about
$300 million annually less than what ESPN was
paying for its previous full package. And that
reduction in national revenue has significant
long -term implications, doesn't it? Oh, absolutely.
That $300 million reduction means less national
revenue is flowing into the central distribution
pool. Since revenue sharing is based on total
league revenue, this puts pressure on teams,
especially those in smaller markets. Who rely
on those national checks to offset local revenue
deficiencies. Right. While the effect isn't immediate,
it increases the urgency for smaller market teams
to maximize their local TV contracts. It further
justifies why we see teams like the Royals making
brutal, cost -saving decisions on players like
Jonathan India. The financial margins are just
becoming thinner for everyone outside the top
few markets. That is a deep insight. Before we
wrap up, let's quickly cover some of the fun
and interesting news items surrounding the World
Series champion Dodgers. Mookie Betts, who is
33 now, wrapped up his 12th season and his second
straight World Series win, even with a down year
at the plate where he hit just .258. He's just
a veteran leader. And the high praise for Shohei
Ohtani continues. He got his second World Series
title and fourth MVP award. LeBron James even
compared Ohtani's dominance in baseball to Stephen
Curry's revolutionary influence in the NBA. Which
is about as high as praise gets. It is. And if
you're looking for a piece of that history, the
auction market is already hot. Artifacts from
Game 7. Will Smith's home run ball is bid at
$130 ,000 and Miguel Rojas' homer ball is at
$70 ,000. Incredible. Looking ahead, we have
the film Homecoming, the Tokyo series, chronicling
that Dodgers -Cubs season opener in Japan. That's
going to be great. It really highlights the globalization
of the game. And closer to home, MLB is bringing
back the Field Dreams game in Dyersville, Iowa
on August 13th, 2026. Minnesota Twins and the
Philadelphia Phillies. A lovely nod to tradition.
It is. And finally, we had that fascinating hypothetical
where a fan, acting as the Rockies' GM, tried
to rebuild the franchise. It was an interesting
case study. The hypothetical GM signed Reese
Hoskins to a three -year, $30 .6 million deal.
Hoping Coors Field would boost his power. Right.
And then dramatically claimed Royce Lewis off
waivers from the Twins. In that simulation, the
Rockies finished the offseason adding 7 .7 war,
which was second only to the Yankees' 8 .2 war
game. It just shows that aggressive, high upside
moves, even if they carry risk, can drastically
change a team's outlook. A bold thought experiment
for a franchise that desperately needs momentum.
What an intense week of transactions, and it's
all driven less by rumor and more by these ironclad
deadlines. The pace of movement around this November
20th timeline, specifically the non -tender crunch
and the Rule 5 protection efforts, it just proves
that financial pressures dictate action. The
key takeaway for me is the stark separation we're
seeing between the contenders and those still
rebuilding. The Orioles were willing to move
four years of cost -controlled pitching for one
year of immediate impact. While the Angels were
desperate to absorb that high -risk control.
Exactly. And meanwhile, you have the Astros and
the Yankees maneuvering around fractions of millions
of dollars so they can afford the next massive
star. The urgency is just palpable. And those
accepted qualifying offers, especially Shota
Imanaga's surprise acceptance by the Cubs, that
has undeniably tightened the purse strings for
the top spenders. It's making their next decision
significantly harder. Which raises an important
question for you, the listener, to mull over.
Given the surprising impact of those accepted
QOs on team budgets and flexibility, forcing
clubs like the Cubs and Yankees to recalculate,
what percentage of the remaining major free agents?
your Bellingers, your Alonzos, your Baldises,
do you think will actually sign before the end
of the calendar year? That's a great question.
Will the urgency of spring training force them
to sign anyway? Or will the Titan purse strings
drag this market well into January? It's going
to be fascinating to watch. That's a great thought
to close on. The dominoes have started falling,
but it sounds like the biggest ones might be
stuck until the new year. We'll be tracking all
the moves and deadlines right here on the Baseball
Podcast. We appreciate you joining us for this
analysis. Until next time.