WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.720 Welcome to the Deep Dive. This is where we cut 00:00:02.720 --> 00:00:04.599 through all the noise, all the information out 00:00:04.599 --> 00:00:06.960 there, and give you the clearest, most compelling 00:00:06.960 --> 00:00:09.539 analysis we can. And right now, the baseball 00:00:09.539 --> 00:00:13.560 world is just... I mean, it's an absolute whirlwind. 00:00:13.699 --> 00:00:16.039 It really is. The World Series just ended and 00:00:16.039 --> 00:00:18.460 we're already, what, knee deep in the offseason 00:00:18.460 --> 00:00:22.940 build for 2026. The hot stove is, it's blazing. 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:25.300 It's the most high stakes time of the year for 00:00:25.300 --> 00:00:27.820 these front offices. The GM meetings are done. 00:00:28.039 --> 00:00:30.399 All the major awards have been handed out. Right. 00:00:30.559 --> 00:00:32.899 And now the biggest free agents are already kicking 00:00:32.899 --> 00:00:35.759 up these huge, potentially league altering rumors. 00:00:36.119 --> 00:00:38.619 So our mission today is pretty straightforward. 00:00:39.159 --> 00:00:41.520 We're going to unpack the biggest news, celebrate 00:00:41.520 --> 00:00:44.320 the award winners from the 2025 season. And more 00:00:44.320 --> 00:00:46.820 importantly, I think, dig into the really compelling 00:00:46.820 --> 00:00:49.259 free agency and trade rumors that are shaping 00:00:49.259 --> 00:00:52.280 the entire competitive landscape. Exactly. We're 00:00:52.280 --> 00:00:54.280 giving you a shortcut to being instantly up to 00:00:54.280 --> 00:00:56.920 speed on who's spending, who's selling and, you 00:00:56.920 --> 00:00:58.780 know, why. Let's start with the hardware then. 00:00:59.039 --> 00:01:02.100 Yeah, let's do it. The 2025 season gave us a 00:01:02.100 --> 00:01:04.659 ton of drama and the awards are all official 00:01:04.659 --> 00:01:07.200 now. It was a year that really showcased, I think, 00:01:07.200 --> 00:01:10.150 both generational talent. and the next wave of 00:01:10.150 --> 00:01:12.489 superstars. Oh, absolutely. And you have to start 00:01:12.489 --> 00:01:15.189 with the MVPs, where we just saw some massive 00:01:15.189 --> 00:01:17.890 historical significance play out. In the American 00:01:17.890 --> 00:01:20.069 League, you've got Aaron Judge of the Yankees. 00:01:20.090 --> 00:01:24.349 He took home his third career AL MVP. Just third. 00:01:24.790 --> 00:01:27.650 But what's so fascinating about that one is how 00:01:27.650 --> 00:01:29.730 close the vote was, right? Incredibly tight. 00:01:29.870 --> 00:01:32.569 He just, I mean, just... Edged out the catcher, 00:01:32.590 --> 00:01:35.269 Cal Raleigh. That close margin really speaks 00:01:35.269 --> 00:01:37.609 to the quality of the competition. Raleigh had 00:01:37.609 --> 00:01:40.150 an unbelievable year behind the plate. But Judge 00:01:40.150 --> 00:01:43.250 just feels like this perpetual force. He is. 00:01:43.390 --> 00:01:45.329 His presence just elevates that entire lineup. 00:01:45.510 --> 00:01:48.030 So what was the defining factor that pushed Judge 00:01:48.030 --> 00:01:50.469 over the top for number three, even with Raleigh 00:01:50.469 --> 00:01:52.709 bringing that premium defense? I think it really 00:01:52.709 --> 00:01:56.790 came down to the sheer offensive volume that 00:01:56.790 --> 00:01:59.180 Judge provides. You can't ignore it. And, you 00:01:59.180 --> 00:02:01.200 know, that's compounded by his established brand, 00:02:01.359 --> 00:02:03.620 his perceived value to the team. Sure. While 00:02:03.620 --> 00:02:06.379 Raleigh had a magnificent season, providing that 00:02:06.379 --> 00:02:08.599 elite catcher defense and some surprising power, 00:02:09.020 --> 00:02:12.340 Judge's overall offensive numbers were just. 00:02:12.620 --> 00:02:15.719 They were too immense to ignore. The plate discipline, 00:02:15.979 --> 00:02:18.740 the single swing impact. Exactly. And his leadership 00:02:18.740 --> 00:02:22.500 in that Yankees lineup, three MVP trophies. I 00:02:22.500 --> 00:02:24.800 mean, that solidifies him as one of the defining 00:02:24.800 --> 00:02:27.740 figures of this. old generation. And speaking 00:02:27.740 --> 00:02:29.860 of defining figures over in the National League, 00:02:30.020 --> 00:02:33.039 the outcome was maybe a little less suspenseful, 00:02:33.159 --> 00:02:36.300 just significant historically. That's Shohei 00:02:36.300 --> 00:02:39.120 Otani of the Dodgers. He took home the NL MVP, 00:02:39.360 --> 00:02:42.860 and that is his fourth career MVP. Four. You 00:02:42.860 --> 00:02:44.599 just have to pause and let that sink in. You 00:02:44.599 --> 00:02:47.259 really do. Four MVPs, and he's still in his late 00:02:47.259 --> 00:02:50.810 20s. This achievement puts him in the rarest 00:02:50.810 --> 00:02:52.449 of air. We're talking about names like Barry 00:02:52.449 --> 00:02:54.909 Bonds, maybe even tying Mike Trout, depending 00:02:54.909 --> 00:02:57.150 on how you count them. And the consistency of 00:02:57.150 --> 00:02:59.110 that elite production, even though he was mostly 00:02:59.110 --> 00:03:02.550 DH in 2025 because of his recovery, it just continues 00:03:02.550 --> 00:03:04.530 to redefine what you can expect from a modern 00:03:04.530 --> 00:03:07.469 player. Complete. Incredible. Okay, so moving 00:03:07.469 --> 00:03:11.050 to pitching excellence. The Cy Young races gave 00:03:11.050 --> 00:03:13.620 us a glimpse into the future, I think. Especially 00:03:13.620 --> 00:03:15.860 in the National League. Oh, yeah. On the NL side, 00:03:16.099 --> 00:03:18.659 the young phenom, Paul Skeens of the Pirates, 00:03:18.680 --> 00:03:21.719 was the undisputed winner. And this is a massive 00:03:21.719 --> 00:03:23.979 development for Pittsburgh. It gives them an 00:03:23.979 --> 00:03:27.199 identity for the next decade with a true elite 00:03:27.199 --> 00:03:30.680 arm. He dominated from start to finish, fulfilled 00:03:30.680 --> 00:03:32.759 all that massive hype that followed him since 00:03:32.759 --> 00:03:34.979 his debut. Meanwhile, in the American League. 00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:38.039 The award went to Tarek Skubal of the Tigers. 00:03:38.319 --> 00:03:40.879 Both are just foundational pieces that their 00:03:40.879 --> 00:03:42.860 franchises are going to try and build their entire 00:03:42.860 --> 00:03:46.759 2026 rotations around. Precisely. And those wins, 00:03:46.900 --> 00:03:49.819 they're huge, not just for the players, but for 00:03:49.819 --> 00:03:52.430 the... organization's ability to recruit talent 00:03:52.430 --> 00:03:54.949 and build confidence, it gives a smaller market 00:03:54.949 --> 00:03:57.229 team like Pittsburgh a tangible star to point 00:03:57.229 --> 00:03:59.449 to. Totally. And let's not forget the new blood 00:03:59.449 --> 00:04:01.590 and the managers who drove those successful seasons. 00:04:01.789 --> 00:04:03.389 I mean, the Rookie of the Year awards always 00:04:03.389 --> 00:04:05.689 have that extra layer of intrigue because of 00:04:05.689 --> 00:04:08.009 what it means for service time. So who were the 00:04:08.009 --> 00:04:10.650 top rookies? Nick Kurtz took the AL Rookie of 00:04:10.650 --> 00:04:13.050 the Year award. And this is so important because 00:04:13.050 --> 00:04:16.889 winning guarantees his club a full year of service 00:04:16.889 --> 00:04:18.910 time. Right. So he accrues value immediately 00:04:18.910 --> 00:04:22.170 and you avoid any of that service time manipulation 00:04:22.170 --> 00:04:26.550 talk. Exactly. And over in the NL, Drake Baldwin 00:04:26.550 --> 00:04:29.769 of the Braves, one rookie of the year. And this 00:04:29.769 --> 00:04:31.209 is where we need to get into the weeds a little 00:04:31.209 --> 00:04:34.629 bit. OK. This victory is a major structural win 00:04:34.629 --> 00:04:37.389 for Atlanta, not just for Baldwin, but because 00:04:37.389 --> 00:04:41.490 it secures them a prospect promotion incentive 00:04:41.490 --> 00:04:44.540 pick. A PPI pick. Okay, let's unpack that. For 00:04:44.540 --> 00:04:46.240 listeners who might have heard the term but don't 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:48.439 know the specifics, what exactly is the benefit 00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:50.379 for the Braves? Why does this rule even exist? 00:04:50.720 --> 00:04:52.500 Well, it's an mechanism from the latest collective 00:04:52.500 --> 00:04:55.100 bargaining agreement, and it's meant to incentivize 00:04:55.100 --> 00:04:57.240 teams to call up their top prospects earlier. 00:04:57.500 --> 00:04:59.379 Instead of waiting a few weeks to get that extra 00:04:59.379 --> 00:05:01.920 year of team control. Exactly. The rule basically 00:05:01.920 --> 00:05:05.100 says, if a player on the MLB Top 100 prospect 00:05:05.100 --> 00:05:07.579 list gets promoted early and then goes on to 00:05:07.579 --> 00:05:09.860 win Rookie of the Year, or even finishes high 00:05:09.860 --> 00:05:12.879 in the MVP voting before arbitration, the team 00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:15.120 gets an extra first round draft pick. So it's 00:05:15.120 --> 00:05:17.939 a reward, a reward for prioritizing winning now 00:05:17.939 --> 00:05:21.439 over, you know, those service time games. 100%. 00:05:21.439 --> 00:05:25.220 For the Braves, getting that PPI pick, which 00:05:25.220 --> 00:05:27.379 is usually a competitive balance pick right outside 00:05:27.379 --> 00:05:30.240 the first round, and it carries huge trade value 00:05:30.240 --> 00:05:33.620 and cost control, it's invaluable. It's a bonus 00:05:33.620 --> 00:05:36.319 piece of premium young talent, completely free. 00:05:36.800 --> 00:05:38.680 Just because they brought Baldwin up and he balled 00:05:38.680 --> 00:05:41.680 out. It makes the Rookie of the Year honor so 00:05:41.680 --> 00:05:43.680 much sweeter than just the individual recognition. 00:05:44.060 --> 00:05:46.860 No doubt. That's a huge strategic win for Atlanta. 00:05:47.279 --> 00:05:49.579 And finally, we have to give a nod to the guys 00:05:49.579 --> 00:05:51.980 in the dugout who steered these teams. Pat Murphy 00:05:51.980 --> 00:05:54.720 and Stephen Vogt earned the Manager of the Year 00:05:54.720 --> 00:05:57.629 awards. Both had just... outstanding seasons, 00:05:57.750 --> 00:06:00.449 leading their clubs, navigating the complexities 00:06:00.449 --> 00:06:04.089 of a 162 -game schedule. And managing those modern 00:06:04.089 --> 00:06:06.430 pitching staff workloads, keeping the clubhouse 00:06:06.430 --> 00:06:08.810 chemistry positive. It's a tough job. It really 00:06:08.810 --> 00:06:11.009 is. And their wins show that both veteran leadership 00:06:11.009 --> 00:06:13.689 and new managerial blood can get it done. Okay, 00:06:13.730 --> 00:06:16.870 so with the hardware all handed out, let's pivot. 00:06:16.990 --> 00:06:19.069 Let's talk about the postseason fallout. The 00:06:19.069 --> 00:06:20.970 immediate fallout. Yeah, exactly. I mean, you 00:06:20.970 --> 00:06:24.680 have this incredibly... emotional end to the 00:06:24.680 --> 00:06:26.680 World Series, right? The Dodgers win it all. 00:06:26.839 --> 00:06:30.339 And the Blue Jays are just one hit short. Yeah. 00:06:30.420 --> 00:06:32.759 Agonizing. Just agonizing. And you can already 00:06:32.759 --> 00:06:35.759 see that driving everything they're doing. Both 00:06:35.759 --> 00:06:37.800 clubs are being super aggressive right out of 00:06:37.800 --> 00:06:40.980 the gate. That memory of Game 7 is fueling every 00:06:40.980 --> 00:06:43.350 decision. The contrast in how they're approaching 00:06:43.350 --> 00:06:45.990 it is fascinating. You've got the Dodgers managing 00:06:45.990 --> 00:06:50.069 success and some turnover while the Blue Jays 00:06:50.069 --> 00:06:52.589 are just spending fueled by that sheer competitive 00:06:52.589 --> 00:06:55.410 agony. Let's start with the champs. Let's appreciate 00:06:55.410 --> 00:06:57.769 what the Dodgers did and focus on the immediate 00:06:57.769 --> 00:07:00.569 roster consequences of their title. Absolutely. 00:07:00.790 --> 00:07:02.569 And when you look at that Dodgers roster right 00:07:02.569 --> 00:07:04.990 after the championship, there's one guy who stands 00:07:04.990 --> 00:07:08.689 out as the ultimate unlikely hero. veteran infielder 00:07:08.689 --> 00:07:11.490 Miguel Rojas. His story is one that I think GM 00:07:11.490 --> 00:07:13.670 should be studying very closely this offseason. 00:07:13.870 --> 00:07:16.009 The story of Rojas is massive, and it's really 00:07:16.009 --> 00:07:18.050 relevant to a discussion we'll have later about 00:07:18.050 --> 00:07:20.910 the value of utility players versus stars. He's 00:07:20.910 --> 00:07:23.310 a free agent, and his contribution to that championship 00:07:23.310 --> 00:07:26.430 was just, it was profound. Forget the regular 00:07:26.430 --> 00:07:28.170 season stats for a minute. Just focus on the 00:07:28.170 --> 00:07:30.350 clutch factor. And the clutch moment being that 00:07:30.350 --> 00:07:34.459 game -tying home run in the ninth inning. Of 00:07:34.459 --> 00:07:36.120 game seven. I mean, that's a scene that will 00:07:36.120 --> 00:07:40.120 live on Dodgers highlight reels forever. Forever. 00:07:40.439 --> 00:07:43.199 That moment when the Dodgers were dead in the 00:07:43.199 --> 00:07:45.120 water, they were facing defeat. It completely 00:07:45.120 --> 00:07:48.720 changed everything. That bomb paved the way for 00:07:48.720 --> 00:07:51.120 Will Smith to knock in the winning run in the 00:07:51.120 --> 00:07:54.560 11th. And it was Rojas, a veteran utility man, 00:07:54.699 --> 00:07:57.079 a guy known for his glove, delivers the biggest 00:07:57.079 --> 00:08:00.139 hit of the year for the franchise. That one swing 00:08:00.139 --> 00:08:03.279 justifies his entire spot on the roster and totally 00:08:03.279 --> 00:08:05.560 shifts the conversation about his value going 00:08:05.560 --> 00:08:07.680 forward. You just can't put a price tag on that 00:08:07.680 --> 00:08:09.939 kind of reliability under pressure. And the good 00:08:09.939 --> 00:08:13.120 news for the fans in L .A. is that Rojas is reportedly 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:16.000 eager to come back for one more season. He's 00:08:16.000 --> 00:08:18.240 the definition of a high floor veteran who just 00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:21.100 clearly loves the environment. He is. He's been 00:08:21.100 --> 00:08:24.120 described as a huge clubhouse presence, a reliable 00:08:24.120 --> 00:08:27.220 glove at multiple positions. Given his desire 00:08:27.220 --> 00:08:30.420 to return and his October heroics, re -signing 00:08:30.420 --> 00:08:33.629 him seems like a logical... low -risk priority 00:08:33.629 --> 00:08:36.190 for the club, especially with the turnover they're 00:08:36.190 --> 00:08:38.350 facing. Right, because even championship teams 00:08:38.350 --> 00:08:41.090 face immediate losses. The churn of free agency 00:08:41.090 --> 00:08:43.549 is just constant. That's the cold reality of 00:08:43.549 --> 00:08:45.870 the business. The Dodgers have already seen key 00:08:45.870 --> 00:08:49.169 playoff contributors leave in free agency. Justin 00:08:49.169 --> 00:08:51.750 Dean, a valuable bench piece, he left for the 00:08:51.750 --> 00:08:53.950 rival Giants. And Ben Roardvett, their depth 00:08:53.950 --> 00:08:56.309 catcher, signed with the Reds. On top of that, 00:08:56.370 --> 00:08:59.029 the team announced that veteran utility man Kike 00:08:59.029 --> 00:09:02.090 Hernandez had elbow surgery this offseason. So 00:09:02.090 --> 00:09:05.070 that surgery for Hernandez plus Dean and Roydvet 00:09:05.070 --> 00:09:07.769 leaving, that immediately degrades their utility 00:09:07.769 --> 00:09:10.529 depth. It just underscores why they need Rojas 00:09:10.529 --> 00:09:13.470 back and why depth is so, so crucial in October. 00:09:13.669 --> 00:09:15.789 You can't win a World Series with just nine guys. 00:09:16.009 --> 00:09:18.409 It does. And while the Dodgers have a massive 00:09:18.409 --> 00:09:22.009 war chest, I mean, $87 million is coming off 00:09:22.009 --> 00:09:24.490 their books this offseason. $87 million. Yeah. 00:09:24.509 --> 00:09:27.429 So they're ready to pivot to bigger market moves 00:09:27.429 --> 00:09:30.340 for a closer or another bat. But retaining that 00:09:30.340 --> 00:09:33.419 internal championship depth is vital. If you 00:09:33.419 --> 00:09:36.600 can't just go out and buy Rojas Game 7 heroics 00:09:36.600 --> 00:09:38.980 on the free agent market, you have to cultivate 00:09:38.980 --> 00:09:42.440 it. Now, contrast that with the Blue Jays. Their 00:09:42.440 --> 00:09:46.399 agonizing World Series loss being one hit away. 00:09:47.460 --> 00:09:49.519 seems to have positioned them as, I don't know, 00:09:49.580 --> 00:09:51.340 maybe one of the most active teams in all of 00:09:51.340 --> 00:09:53.700 free agency this winter. Oh, for sure. They are 00:09:53.700 --> 00:09:55.919 operating with the urgency of a team that knows 00:09:55.919 --> 00:09:58.019 their window is wide open and they just need 00:09:58.019 --> 00:10:00.899 that final piece. That loss was brutal to watch, 00:10:01.019 --> 00:10:03.000 but it shows exactly why they're going to spend 00:10:03.000 --> 00:10:05.960 big. They're not rebuilding. They're fine -tuning 00:10:05.960 --> 00:10:07.799 a new year champion. And what's really fascinating 00:10:07.799 --> 00:10:10.639 about Toronto's season is the mix they had. They 00:10:10.639 --> 00:10:12.879 weren't just built on stars like Vladdy Jr. and 00:10:12.879 --> 00:10:15.700 George Springer. We have to talk about the remarkable 00:10:15.700 --> 00:10:19.320 story of Ernie Clement. Ah, the scrappy player 00:10:19.320 --> 00:10:22.240 who became an icon. The definition of a diamond 00:10:22.240 --> 00:10:25.279 in the rough. This is the narrative perfected, 00:10:25.279 --> 00:10:27.899 and it ties right back to Rojas. Clement was 00:10:27.899 --> 00:10:29.940 a versatile defender who was literally picked 00:10:29.940 --> 00:10:32.679 up off the scrap heap, released by the Athletics 00:10:32.679 --> 00:10:36.059 in 2023. Few people saw him as a difference maker. 00:10:36.360 --> 00:10:38.740 And then, fast forward two years, and he's a 00:10:38.740 --> 00:10:41.700 World Series hero for Toronto. Hitting an astonishing 00:10:41.700 --> 00:10:45.639 .411 in the postseason, he went 12 -for -31 in 00:10:45.639 --> 00:10:48.580 the World Series itself. This highlights something 00:10:48.580 --> 00:10:51.340 critical. Their front office found championship 00:10:51.340 --> 00:10:53.639 -level value in a player that cost them basically 00:10:53.639 --> 00:10:56.360 nothing. That's phenomenal. It's hard to imagine 00:10:56.360 --> 00:10:58.659 a higher return on investment than a utility 00:10:58.659 --> 00:11:02.139 guy batting over .400 in the World Series. It 00:11:02.139 --> 00:11:04.100 just proves that depth isn't just about avoiding 00:11:04.100 --> 00:11:06.639 injury. It's about reliable, high -pressure performance. 00:11:07.039 --> 00:11:09.419 It proves that building a deep roster with these 00:11:09.419 --> 00:11:12.080 high -floor, high -versatility guys can compete 00:11:12.080 --> 00:11:14.139 with any concentration of high -priced talent. 00:11:14.399 --> 00:11:17.320 That successful mix is clearly fueling Toronto's 00:11:17.320 --> 00:11:19.480 confidence heading into this offseason. Speaking 00:11:19.480 --> 00:11:21.679 of their core, the emergence of their young pitching 00:11:21.679 --> 00:11:24.299 is even more exciting because it's cost -controlled. 00:11:24.539 --> 00:11:27.500 The future of their rotation got a massive, maybe 00:11:27.500 --> 00:11:30.580 even unexpected boost from Treya Savage. The 00:11:30.580 --> 00:11:32.820 22 -year -old righty had an incredible year, 00:11:32.980 --> 00:11:35.399 dominating in the minors before a huge showing 00:11:35.399 --> 00:11:38.320 in the majors and then in October. He set a rookie 00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:41.200 pitching record with 12 strikeouts and zero walks 00:11:41.200 --> 00:11:43.610 in a World Series game. To have that kind of 00:11:43.610 --> 00:11:45.950 command and composure on the biggest stage at 00:11:45.950 --> 00:11:48.950 22 is almost unheard of. It provides an immediate 00:11:48.950 --> 00:11:51.450 elite presence. And that kind of breakout performance 00:11:51.450 --> 00:11:54.389 secures his future, regardless of who they sign 00:11:54.389 --> 00:11:56.809 this winter. Absolutely. He's firmly penciled 00:11:56.809 --> 00:11:59.769 into the 2026 rotation alongside guys like Gossman 00:11:59.769 --> 00:12:02.490 and Bieber. And critically, he'll only earn about 00:12:02.490 --> 00:12:06.620 $820 ,000 next season. Wow. That's elite high 00:12:06.620 --> 00:12:08.919 -value innings. He's ranked as the sixth best 00:12:08.919 --> 00:12:11.899 prospect in MLB for 2026, the second highest 00:12:11.899 --> 00:12:14.820 pitcher. He's a phenomenal high -ceiling, cost 00:12:14.820 --> 00:12:16.940 -controlled asset for the next six years. That 00:12:16.940 --> 00:12:19.200 frees up a lot of money to pursue a position 00:12:19.200 --> 00:12:21.500 player like Tucker. Now let's talk about a veteran 00:12:21.500 --> 00:12:24.139 presence the Blue Jays had last year, Max Scherzer. 00:12:24.379 --> 00:12:27.519 His tenure ended in Game 7, and he's a free agent 00:12:27.519 --> 00:12:29.899 now at 41. He pitched well in that final game. 00:12:30.220 --> 00:12:32.399 But what does his market look like given his 00:12:32.399 --> 00:12:35.750 age and injury history? Given his age, the workload, 00:12:35.970 --> 00:12:37.990 and recent injuries, which is always a factor 00:12:37.990 --> 00:12:40.330 for a pitcher in his 40s, the consensus prediction 00:12:40.330 --> 00:12:43.049 is a short deal, something like a one -year, 00:12:43.070 --> 00:12:46.190 $15 million contract. And while the Blue Jays 00:12:46.190 --> 00:12:48.710 might still be interested for a year, the strongest 00:12:48.710 --> 00:12:51.870 prediction seems to be a return to Detroit. Exactly. 00:12:52.049 --> 00:12:54.690 A return to where he made his name. the Detroit 00:12:54.690 --> 00:12:57.870 Tigers. It would likely be as a fifth starter 00:12:57.870 --> 00:13:00.490 or reliever, helping them fill a need with a 00:13:00.490 --> 00:13:02.730 veteran presence and some mentorship. A lower 00:13:02.730 --> 00:13:05.450 leverage opportunity, maybe allowing him to finish 00:13:05.450 --> 00:13:07.750 his career near home while still contributing. 00:13:07.870 --> 00:13:10.309 That's the idea. And $15 million is substantial, 00:13:10.570 --> 00:13:12.850 but it's short enough that teams aren't terrified 00:13:12.850 --> 00:13:15.309 of a multi -year decline. This is where it gets 00:13:15.309 --> 00:13:17.649 really interesting. Speaking of the high cost 00:13:17.649 --> 00:13:19.990 of power, that brings us to the most intriguing 00:13:19.990 --> 00:13:22.519 opt -out in the NL. I think what's fascinating 00:13:22.519 --> 00:13:24.940 here is how the biggest contract questions this 00:13:24.940 --> 00:13:28.159 offseason are all about the power hitters. And 00:13:28.159 --> 00:13:30.259 the outcome depends less on their production, 00:13:30.480 --> 00:13:32.879 which is elite, and more on the years they're 00:13:32.879 --> 00:13:35.120 asking for. It's all about risk management versus 00:13:35.120 --> 00:13:37.320 guaranteed output, especially past the age of 00:13:37.320 --> 00:13:40.529 33. And the most dramatic test case of that tension 00:13:40.529 --> 00:13:44.029 is Pete Alonzo with the New York Mets. Alonzo, 00:13:44.090 --> 00:13:46.889 the Mets' all -time home run leader, just opted 00:13:46.889 --> 00:13:48.889 out of his contract even though the team missed 00:13:48.889 --> 00:13:50.809 the playoffs last year. Opting out of guaranteed 00:13:50.809 --> 00:13:53.090 money takes immense confidence in your market 00:13:53.090 --> 00:13:55.389 value, especially for a first baseman. You're 00:13:55.389 --> 00:13:57.860 paying purely for the bat. Well, he had massive 00:13:57.860 --> 00:13:59.840 leverage. He's coming off a career -defining 00:13:59.840 --> 00:14:03.379 platform year. In 2025, he slashed an outstanding 00:14:03.379 --> 00:14:10.620 .272, .347, .524 for a .871 OPS. 38 homers, 41 00:14:10.620 --> 00:14:14.019 doubles, 126 RBIs. And this is the critical part. 00:14:14.100 --> 00:14:17.139 He played all 162 games for the second straight 00:14:17.139 --> 00:14:19.000 season. That durability is like a bulletproof 00:14:19.000 --> 00:14:20.779 warranty on his production. It puts his agent, 00:14:20.899 --> 00:14:22.799 Scott Boras, in a great position to get that 00:14:22.799 --> 00:14:24.919 long -term payday. So the Mets have Juan Soto. 00:14:25.340 --> 00:14:28.279 The perfect setup. Alonzo seems like the natural 00:14:28.279 --> 00:14:32.220 fit to protect Soto in that lineup. So why the 00:14:32.220 --> 00:14:35.320 hesitation? Isn't the risk of a declining final 00:14:35.320 --> 00:14:37.860 year worth the guaranteed four years of elite 00:14:37.860 --> 00:14:40.799 production? The club absolutely wants him back. 00:14:40.919 --> 00:14:43.799 The offense is undeniable. But the key conflict 00:14:43.799 --> 00:14:46.580 is that Mets management is prioritizing positional 00:14:46.580 --> 00:14:48.899 value and defense under their new directives. 00:14:48.980 --> 00:14:52.179 And Alonzo, as a first baseman, is viewed internally 00:14:52.179 --> 00:14:54.519 as a negative defender, especially as he ages. 00:14:54.990 --> 00:14:57.330 So they're afraid of committing, what, six years 00:14:57.330 --> 00:14:59.629 to a declining defensive player who might end 00:14:59.629 --> 00:15:02.289 up as just a DH, which limits your roster flexibility. 00:15:02.950 --> 00:15:05.269 Precisely. The reporting suggests that if Alonzo 00:15:05.269 --> 00:15:07.370 seeks more than four guaranteed years, the Mets 00:15:07.370 --> 00:15:10.409 may seriously consider moving on. They just don't 00:15:10.409 --> 00:15:12.629 want the risk of an aging first baseman whose 00:15:12.629 --> 00:15:14.590 defense and base running will likely decline 00:15:14.590 --> 00:15:17.429 over a five or six year deal worth maybe $180 00:15:17.429 --> 00:15:20.519 million. So they're asking, how much offensive 00:15:20.519 --> 00:15:22.659 certainty is worth that positional inflexibility 00:15:22.659 --> 00:15:25.360 and defensive downgrade in the later years? Exactly. 00:15:25.460 --> 00:15:27.820 And that opens the door wide open for competitors. 00:15:28.120 --> 00:15:29.759 Right. So who's lining up to steal the polar 00:15:29.759 --> 00:15:32.899 bear if the Mets hesitate? This is why the Yankees, 00:15:32.919 --> 00:15:35.519 the Red Sox, the Phillies, and the Orioles are 00:15:35.519 --> 00:15:38.379 all listed as interested. If the Mets draw a 00:15:38.379 --> 00:15:40.759 line in the sand at four years, one of those 00:15:40.759 --> 00:15:43.100 rivals will happily swoop in and offer the fifth. 00:15:43.600 --> 00:15:46.200 The thought of Alonzo moving across town to the 00:15:46.200 --> 00:15:49.169 Yankees is just... A terrifying possibility for 00:15:49.169 --> 00:15:52.289 Mets fans. It'd be a tectonic shift. A huge shift. 00:15:52.450 --> 00:15:54.809 Okay, moving to another highly sought -after 00:15:54.809 --> 00:15:57.919 outfielder, Kyle Tucker. Toronto's ambition seems 00:15:57.919 --> 00:16:00.179 to be reaching for the stars here. They're heavily 00:16:00.179 --> 00:16:02.799 linked to the four -time All -Star. This absolutely 00:16:02.799 --> 00:16:05.279 fits their aggressive aim -high strategy after 00:16:05.279 --> 00:16:07.620 getting so close. They need another reliable 00:16:07.620 --> 00:16:10.539 elite bat to complement their core, and Tucker 00:16:10.539 --> 00:16:13.080 is a perfect fit. He won his second Silver Slugger 00:16:13.080 --> 00:16:16.279 award last year, posted a really strong 4 .6 00:16:16.279 --> 00:16:18.500 war. His stats cooled off a bit in the second 00:16:18.500 --> 00:16:21.759 half, but he finished hitting .266 with 22 homers 00:16:21.759 --> 00:16:24.500 and 73 RBIs. Great overall value in defense. 00:16:24.840 --> 00:16:26.580 If Toronto lands Tucker, that would instantly 00:16:26.580 --> 00:16:29.460 make them favorites in the AL East. But why wouldn't 00:16:29.460 --> 00:16:31.519 the big New York teams jump in for a player of 00:16:31.519 --> 00:16:33.320 this caliber? If they're looking at Alonzo, why 00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:35.639 not Tucker too? This is the insider perspective 00:16:35.639 --> 00:16:38.200 that makes the most sense. The reporting suggests 00:16:38.200 --> 00:16:41.179 the Mets and Yankees are unlikely to bid aggressively 00:16:41.179 --> 00:16:44.019 for Tucker. The reasoning is all about roster 00:16:44.019 --> 00:16:47.360 fit and financial allocation. Both teams already 00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:49.659 have their franchise outfielders locked up long 00:16:49.659 --> 00:16:52.779 term. Soto with the Mets, Judge with the Yankees. 00:16:53.210 --> 00:16:55.809 Adding Tucker creates a positional logjam and 00:16:55.809 --> 00:16:58.929 forces a high value player into a DH role, which 00:16:58.929 --> 00:17:02.330 just isn't efficient spending. So because the 00:17:02.330 --> 00:17:04.630 Yankees need a first baseman and the Mets want 00:17:04.630 --> 00:17:07.490 to protect Soto with Alonzo, the path is clearer 00:17:07.490 --> 00:17:09.789 for teams like the Blue Jays. Correct. For the 00:17:09.789 --> 00:17:11.809 Yankees, their focus is first base or pitching. 00:17:11.890 --> 00:17:14.289 They aren't going to displace Judge. So the primary 00:17:14.289 --> 00:17:16.789 bidders beyond Toronto are expected to be the 00:17:16.789 --> 00:17:19.190 Dodgers, the Giants and the Phillies teams with 00:17:19.190 --> 00:17:21.089 bigger needs in the outfield. The third base 00:17:21.089 --> 00:17:23.390 market is also generating headlines, specifically 00:17:23.390 --> 00:17:26.210 with Alex Bregman, who just made a huge financial 00:17:26.210 --> 00:17:28.950 decision in Boston. Oregman officially opted 00:17:28.950 --> 00:17:31.569 out of the final two years and $80 million of 00:17:31.569 --> 00:17:33.410 his contract with the Red Sox. And you have to 00:17:33.410 --> 00:17:35.730 understand that $80 million included a lot of 00:17:35.730 --> 00:17:38.250 deferred money. So what does opting out of deferred 00:17:38.250 --> 00:17:40.910 money signal about his confidence? It signals 00:17:40.910 --> 00:17:43.490 absolute confidence. Deferred money means a portion 00:17:43.490 --> 00:17:45.970 of that salary gets paid out years after the 00:17:45.970 --> 00:17:48.990 contract ends. By opting out, Bregman is sacrificing 00:17:48.990 --> 00:17:52.589 that guaranteed long -term payout stream right 00:17:52.589 --> 00:17:54.769 now. He's betting that the immediate value of 00:17:54.769 --> 00:17:57.710 a new massive contract will outweigh the security 00:17:57.710 --> 00:17:59.769 of those deferred payments. He's chasing the 00:17:59.769 --> 00:18:02.329 total guarantee, and he's projected to get it 00:18:02.329 --> 00:18:05.809 around $150 million over six years. But what's 00:18:05.809 --> 00:18:07.950 maybe most compelling about his situation is 00:18:07.950 --> 00:18:11.289 the very public plea. he got from a Red Sox legend 00:18:11.289 --> 00:18:14.930 to return. David Ortiz, big pappy urging Bregman 00:18:14.930 --> 00:18:17.769 to stay home. Yes, Ortiz publicly urged him to 00:18:17.769 --> 00:18:19.890 return, highlighting his incredible leadership 00:18:19.890 --> 00:18:22.690 and team player mentality. Ortiz even mentioned 00:18:22.690 --> 00:18:24.589 watching Bregman in spring training, helping 00:18:24.589 --> 00:18:27.029 out younger guys like Rafael Devers, saying it 00:18:27.029 --> 00:18:30.289 showed tremendous selflessness. For Boston. Bringing 00:18:30.289 --> 00:18:32.930 him back would be a massive boost, not just for 00:18:32.930 --> 00:18:35.450 his production, but for that intangible value 00:18:35.450 --> 00:18:37.789 in the clubhouse as they look to capitalize on 00:18:37.789 --> 00:18:40.309 their recent wildcard success. So what does this 00:18:40.309 --> 00:18:42.930 all mean for the other side of the ball? We're 00:18:42.930 --> 00:18:45.529 seeing a global arms race for pitching. covering 00:18:45.529 --> 00:18:47.849 everything from the back end of the bullpen to 00:18:47.849 --> 00:18:50.910 elite starters. Pitching is the scarce resource, 00:18:51.130 --> 00:18:53.390 and teams like the Blue Jays and Dodgers are 00:18:53.390 --> 00:18:56.369 hunting high leverage arms to solidify their 00:18:56.369 --> 00:18:59.069 championship hopes. And nowhere is that aggression 00:18:59.069 --> 00:19:02.410 clearer than in the closer market. Two big names 00:19:02.410 --> 00:19:04.789 opted out of their deals, starting with Edwin 00:19:04.789 --> 00:19:07.250 Diaz, and they are looking for historically large 00:19:07.250 --> 00:19:09.930 contracts. Diaz opting out of his record deal 00:19:09.930 --> 00:19:12.210 instantly made him the biggest prize on the relief 00:19:12.210 --> 00:19:15.450 market. What's the contract risk here? Relievers 00:19:15.450 --> 00:19:18.369 are notoriously volatile. The risk is immense 00:19:18.369 --> 00:19:21.269 because relievers are so volatile, yet Diaz is 00:19:21.269 --> 00:19:24.130 rumored to be seeking a massive five -year, $100 00:19:24.130 --> 00:19:26.869 million contract. $100 million for a closer. 00:19:27.009 --> 00:19:29.109 If he gets that, it would completely reset the 00:19:29.109 --> 00:19:31.630 market for all future closers. The risk, though, 00:19:31.730 --> 00:19:34.710 is dedicating $20 million a year for half a decade 00:19:34.710 --> 00:19:37.349 to a guy who throws 60 innings. It's dangerous, 00:19:37.549 --> 00:19:39.750 especially if he has one injury or a drop in 00:19:39.750 --> 00:19:42.509 velocity in year four or five. But the demand 00:19:42.509 --> 00:19:45.839 is there, especially from Toronto. who desperately 00:19:45.839 --> 00:19:48.119 wants to lock down those final three outs. Oh, 00:19:48.119 --> 00:19:51.220 absolutely. The Blue Jays, driven by that postseason 00:19:51.220 --> 00:19:53.799 failure, are reportedly ready to make a significant 00:19:53.799 --> 00:19:57.259 offer to get him. They saw their bullpen falter 00:19:57.259 --> 00:19:59.660 at key moments, and they want guaranteed late 00:19:59.660 --> 00:20:02.039 inning dominance. And the Dodgers are also interested. 00:20:02.339 --> 00:20:04.680 Yep, the newly crowned champs. They're helped 00:20:04.680 --> 00:20:06.980 by the fact they have that $87 million coming 00:20:06.980 --> 00:20:09.339 off the books, which lets them pursue a top -tier 00:20:09.339 --> 00:20:11.849 closer without... Major budget issues. But if 00:20:11.849 --> 00:20:14.470 the top guy is too pricey, the Blue Jays and 00:20:14.470 --> 00:20:17.230 Dodgers seem to have a fallback plan, which centers 00:20:17.230 --> 00:20:20.170 on veteran Razel Iglesias. Iglesias is drawing 00:20:20.170 --> 00:20:22.569 interest from both those clubs, making him the 00:20:22.569 --> 00:20:25.430 prime consolation prize if Diaz gets his $100 00:20:25.430 --> 00:20:29.769 million deal. He's 36, coming off a 3 .21 ERA 00:20:29.769 --> 00:20:31.410 season for the Braves. And it's important to 00:20:31.410 --> 00:20:33.339 look at the splits in his... performance rate. 00:20:33.380 --> 00:20:35.220 Definitely. He was really inconsistent early 00:20:35.220 --> 00:20:38.779 in the season, had a near 6 .00 ERA into June 00:20:38.779 --> 00:20:41.019 because of some home run issues. But then he 00:20:41.019 --> 00:20:44.980 was lights out, posting a stellar 1 .96 ERA over 00:20:44.980 --> 00:20:47.230 the final four months. So teams are betting on 00:20:47.230 --> 00:20:49.710 that second half form, hoping the early struggles 00:20:49.710 --> 00:20:52.609 were an anomaly. Exactly. And for Toronto specifically, 00:20:52.990 --> 00:20:54.809 he's a valuable target because it's a strategy 00:20:54.809 --> 00:20:57.630 play. Signing Iglesias would let them use their 00:20:57.630 --> 00:20:59.970 current closer, Jeff Hoffman, who struggled with 00:20:59.970 --> 00:21:02.829 homers last year, in an earlier multi -inning 00:21:02.829 --> 00:21:06.089 leverage role. It's a classic move. Add a high 00:21:06.089 --> 00:21:08.710 leverage arm and optimize an existing reliever 00:21:08.710 --> 00:21:11.140 spot. You solve multiple bullpen problems at 00:21:11.140 --> 00:21:13.420 once. Right. And Iglesias is projected to get 00:21:13.420 --> 00:21:15.519 a more manageable two -year deal, maybe around 00:21:15.519 --> 00:21:18.400 $13 million annually, which is far less restrictive 00:21:18.400 --> 00:21:20.940 than the commitment for Diaz. Beyond domestic 00:21:20.940 --> 00:21:23.220 free agents, the pitching arms race is stretching 00:21:23.220 --> 00:21:25.660 across the globe with the posting of Japanese 00:21:25.660 --> 00:21:29.160 star Tatsuya Imai. Imai is the Japanese phenom 00:21:29.160 --> 00:21:31.769 right -hander, and he's set to be posted. He's 00:21:31.769 --> 00:21:33.869 a coveted asset because he doesn't carry that 00:21:33.869 --> 00:21:36.329 qualified free agent draft pick penalty. Most 00:21:36.329 --> 00:21:38.430 scouts see him as a high floor, mid -rotation 00:21:38.430 --> 00:21:41.390 arm with upside. And his results in 2025 were 00:21:41.390 --> 00:21:44.410 certainly impressive. Superb. He posted a 1 .92 00:21:44.410 --> 00:21:48.170 ERA over 24 starts with 178 strikeouts in about 00:21:48.170 --> 00:21:50.970 164 innings. That level of production guarantees 00:21:50.970 --> 00:21:53.990 heavy interest. Who's leading the charge? The 00:21:53.990 --> 00:21:56.910 Souter race is hot. The Phillies, Yankees, Blue 00:21:56.910 --> 00:21:59.650 Jays, and Mets are all listed as leading candidates. 00:22:00.329 --> 00:22:02.809 For the Mets, Imanai is particularly attractive 00:22:02.809 --> 00:22:05.349 because, like we said, he's a high -floor signing 00:22:05.349 --> 00:22:07.910 without the immediate, costly penalty of losing 00:22:07.910 --> 00:22:10.450 draft picks. Speaking of rotation needs, the 00:22:10.450 --> 00:22:12.329 Cubs are in the market after some unexpected 00:22:12.329 --> 00:22:15.079 turnover. Yeah, the Cubs need pitching after 00:22:15.079 --> 00:22:18.019 Shuta Imanaga declined his options, which really 00:22:18.019 --> 00:22:20.160 surprised the organization and left a massive 00:22:20.160 --> 00:22:22.839 hole. Their aggressive trade target is Dylan 00:22:22.839 --> 00:22:25.079 Cease. Which makes sense because of his durability. 00:22:25.400 --> 00:22:28.279 Remarkable durability. He's logged 32 starts 00:22:28.279 --> 00:22:31.359 and 165 -plus innings over the last five years, 00:22:31.480 --> 00:22:33.920 and he led MLB in strikeout percentage over the 00:22:33.920 --> 00:22:37.559 last four. That checks two huge boxes. Guaranteed 00:22:37.559 --> 00:22:39.700 innings and strikeout prowess. But durability 00:22:39.700 --> 00:22:42.059 doesn't erase the performance concerns entirely. 00:22:42.680 --> 00:22:44.900 Cease has had some pretty significant consistency 00:22:44.900 --> 00:22:48.279 issues. Right. He logged 168 innings for the 00:22:48.279 --> 00:22:50.720 Padres last year, but finished with a high 4 00:22:50.720 --> 00:22:54.539 .55 ERA. The main concerns are his high walk 00:22:54.539 --> 00:22:57.619 rate and just general inconsistency. But analysts 00:22:57.619 --> 00:22:59.859 feel his exceptional strikeout rate, the fact 00:22:59.859 --> 00:23:02.140 that he can miss bats at an elite level, gives 00:23:02.140 --> 00:23:04.660 teams confidence they can fix him. They think 00:23:04.660 --> 00:23:07.680 they can turn him into a true frontline guy by 00:23:07.680 --> 00:23:10.079 simplifying his mechanics or focusing his pitch 00:23:10.079 --> 00:23:12.769 mix. Basically, yeah. He's seen as a reclamation 00:23:12.769 --> 00:23:15.150 project with a huge ceiling. Turning back to 00:23:15.150 --> 00:23:16.990 the mess, their search for an ace is complicated 00:23:16.990 --> 00:23:19.789 by the trade market drying up and the prohibitive 00:23:19.789 --> 00:23:22.109 cost of qualified free agents. They're expected 00:23:22.109 --> 00:23:24.430 to land at least one high -end starter, but they've 00:23:24.430 --> 00:23:26.869 hit a brick wall on the trade front. Top options 00:23:26.869 --> 00:23:29.009 that were rumored to be available are now reportedly 00:23:29.009 --> 00:23:32.630 off the block for 2026. Likeaboo. Sandy Alcantara, 00:23:32.809 --> 00:23:35.410 Paul Skeens, Turk Scouble, and Hunter Green. 00:23:35.950 --> 00:23:38.430 The Marlins owner in particular has told staff 00:23:38.430 --> 00:23:40.710 he plans to have Alcantara on the roster to start 00:23:40.710 --> 00:23:43.430 2026. So that shuts those rumors down immediately. 00:23:43.750 --> 00:23:46.450 So if the trade market is a desert, that forces 00:23:46.450 --> 00:23:49.329 the Mets to look exclusively at free agency for 00:23:49.329 --> 00:23:52.470 top arms. And that means navigating the qualified 00:23:52.470 --> 00:23:55.519 free agent system. And this is a major financial 00:23:55.519 --> 00:23:58.220 and structural hurdle that dictates their whole 00:23:58.220 --> 00:24:01.160 offseason strategy. They have to weigh the cost 00:24:01.160 --> 00:24:03.779 of signing qualified free agents like Frambois 00:24:03.779 --> 00:24:06.700 Valdez or maybe even cease against the stiff 00:24:06.700 --> 00:24:09.079 penalty of losing draft picks. For a team like 00:24:09.079 --> 00:24:12.259 the Mets, signing a QFA means losing their second 00:24:12.259 --> 00:24:14.740 and fifth highest draft picks, plus a million 00:24:14.740 --> 00:24:16.920 dollar reduction from their international signing 00:24:16.920 --> 00:24:19.490 bonus pool. Wait, why is losing those picks and 00:24:19.490 --> 00:24:21.990 that international pool money so painful for 00:24:21.990 --> 00:24:24.470 a big market team like the Mets? They have endless 00:24:24.470 --> 00:24:27.130 financial resources. They have money, but they 00:24:27.130 --> 00:24:30.130 want young, controllable talent to sustain their 00:24:30.130 --> 00:24:32.450 success. That second highest pick is often a 00:24:32.450 --> 00:24:34.529 crucial spot for high ceiling college talent 00:24:34.529 --> 00:24:36.690 that can move quickly. And that million dollar 00:24:36.690 --> 00:24:38.849 reduction in the international pool is critical. 00:24:39.009 --> 00:24:40.930 That's where you find the next generation of 00:24:40.930 --> 00:24:43.779 stars. Exactly. Losing a chunk of that budget 00:24:43.779 --> 00:24:46.319 makes it incredibly hard to compete with other 00:24:46.319 --> 00:24:49.019 big market teams who are aggressively scouting 00:24:49.019 --> 00:24:51.640 Latin America and Asia. It delays your ability 00:24:51.640 --> 00:24:54.440 to replenish the system for years. That cost 00:24:54.440 --> 00:24:57.759 makes GMs extremely hesitant, even for an ace. 00:24:58.079 --> 00:25:00.279 We've covered the behemoths of the East and West. 00:25:00.990 --> 00:25:03.089 Now let's look at the teams in the hunt, starting 00:25:03.089 --> 00:25:05.130 with the Mariners, who are prioritizing keeping 00:25:05.130 --> 00:25:08.069 their own guys over external spending, which 00:25:08.069 --> 00:25:11.029 is a big strategic move after reaching the ALCS. 00:25:11.349 --> 00:25:14.069 General Manager Justin Hollander was very clear. 00:25:14.269 --> 00:25:17.230 After reaching Game 7 of the ALCS, the Mariners 00:25:17.230 --> 00:25:19.569 want to retain as much of their 2025 core as 00:25:19.569 --> 00:25:22.589 they can. He explicitly named first baseman Josh 00:25:22.589 --> 00:25:25.410 Naylor and infielder Jorge Polanco as priorities. 00:25:25.769 --> 00:25:28.410 Naylor in particular seems like a necessary fit 00:25:28.410 --> 00:25:30.509 to stabilize that first base position for them 00:25:30.509 --> 00:25:32.990 long term. He is. Hollander said they are open 00:25:32.990 --> 00:25:34.990 about their desire to keep Naylor, describing 00:25:34.990 --> 00:25:36.809 him as one of the smartest players in the league, 00:25:36.890 --> 00:25:39.529 bringing power and a low strikeout rate, fitting 00:25:39.529 --> 00:25:41.609 a position of need that has been volatile for 00:25:41.609 --> 00:25:44.230 Seattle. The common belief is that both Naylor 00:25:44.230 --> 00:25:46.869 and Polanco are the most likely internal free 00:25:46.869 --> 00:25:50.000 agents to resign. They just provide instant high 00:25:50.000 --> 00:25:52.180 floor production that would be incredibly expensive 00:25:52.180 --> 00:25:54.400 to replace on the open market. And what's their 00:25:54.400 --> 00:25:56.839 biggest focus outside of re -signing those core 00:25:56.839 --> 00:25:59.940 players? Bullpen help. Hollander emphasized that 00:25:59.940 --> 00:26:02.440 adding a left -handed reliever is a major focus 00:26:02.440 --> 00:26:04.839 for them, especially since Gabe Spire is currently 00:26:04.839 --> 00:26:07.420 their only lefty projected in the bullpen. After 00:26:07.420 --> 00:26:09.660 a deep playoff run, you want to ensure the relief 00:26:09.660 --> 00:26:12.440 corps is deeper and longer to account for all 00:26:12.440 --> 00:26:14.819 that extra work. Definitely. We have to talk 00:26:14.819 --> 00:26:16.480 about the Philadelphia Phillies, who finished 00:26:16.480 --> 00:26:19.119 second in the NL Suns young race, but saw their 00:26:19.119 --> 00:26:22.380 ace get a massive snub during the all -MLB voting. 00:26:22.759 --> 00:26:25.339 This raises serious questions about how we define 00:26:25.339 --> 00:26:28.480 best. This is one of the most staggering talking 00:26:28.480 --> 00:26:31.240 points from the entire awards season. Phillies 00:26:31.240 --> 00:26:34.420 starter Christopher Sanchez was completely disregarded 00:26:34.420 --> 00:26:37.339 by the all -MLB first -team voters. Despite the 00:26:37.339 --> 00:26:39.880 snub, he finished second in the actual NL San 00:26:39.880 --> 00:26:42.819 Yunga voting and registered an incredible 8 .0 00:26:42.819 --> 00:26:46.519 B -war. Wait, 8 .0 B -war and he missed the first 00:26:46.519 --> 00:26:49.000 team? For listeners who aren't constantly immersed 00:26:49.000 --> 00:26:50.880 in advanced metrics, you have to explain what 00:26:50.880 --> 00:26:53.720 8 .0 BWAR means for a pitcher and why that number 00:26:53.720 --> 00:26:57.279 is truly historic. So BWAR is Baseball Reference 00:26:57.279 --> 00:27:00.059 Wins Above Replacement. It quantifies a player's 00:27:00.059 --> 00:27:02.319 total value compared to a replacement level player. 00:27:02.480 --> 00:27:05.779 For pitcher, an excellent season might be 5 .0 00:27:05.779 --> 00:27:08.279 WAR. A Cy Young contending season is usually 00:27:08.279 --> 00:27:11.859 6 .5 or higher. And 8 .0 B -War R is. It's an 00:27:11.859 --> 00:27:14.480 absolutely historic generational number. It means 00:27:14.480 --> 00:27:17.039 Sanchez was eight full wins better than a replacement 00:27:17.039 --> 00:27:19.779 pitcher. It was the highest B -War among all 00:27:19.779 --> 00:27:21.900 pitchers in baseball and second highest overall 00:27:21.900 --> 00:27:25.619 behind only MVP Aaron Judge. That statistic is 00:27:25.619 --> 00:27:28.279 staggering. How structurally broken is the voting 00:27:28.279 --> 00:27:30.819 system that Max Freed, with demonstrably worse 00:27:30.819 --> 00:27:33.259 metrics, could leapfrog him? It suggests some 00:27:33.259 --> 00:27:35.839 voters prioritize name recognition or team success 00:27:35.839 --> 00:27:39.599 over purely dominant performance metrics. Sanchez 00:27:39.599 --> 00:27:41.900 was named only to the All -MLB second team, yet 00:27:41.900 --> 00:27:44.059 he beat Freed in nearly every measurable category. 00:27:44.359 --> 00:27:46.819 Better ERA, more innings pitched, more strikeouts, 00:27:46.859 --> 00:27:49.759 fewer walks. The discrepancy is shocking. Amid 00:27:49.759 --> 00:27:52.359 this snub, The Phillies face major free agency 00:27:52.359 --> 00:27:55.500 questions with two key veterans, Kyle Schwarber 00:27:55.500 --> 00:27:59.180 and JT RealMuto. Schwarber was the MVP runner 00:27:59.180 --> 00:28:01.400 -up. He seems like the obvious priority given 00:28:01.400 --> 00:28:04.279 his power. This is where the internal debate 00:28:04.279 --> 00:28:07.839 gets interesting. Schwarber was, indeed, the 00:28:07.839 --> 00:28:11.319 NL MVP runner -up, leading the NL with 56 home 00:28:11.319 --> 00:28:14.819 runs. However, an insider argument suggests the 00:28:14.819 --> 00:28:17.339 Phillies must prioritize re -signing veteran 00:28:17.339 --> 00:28:20.619 catcher JT RealMuto. even over Schwarber's historic 00:28:20.619 --> 00:28:23.180 power. But Schwarber delivers historic power. 00:28:23.359 --> 00:28:25.279 Can a team really afford to let that kind of 00:28:25.279 --> 00:28:27.140 production walk just because they can't find 00:28:27.140 --> 00:28:29.859 another catcher? The argument comes down to market 00:28:29.859 --> 00:28:32.359 leverage and defensive value. The catching market 00:28:32.359 --> 00:28:35.279 this offseason is extremely weak. Real Muto, 00:28:35.500 --> 00:28:38.500 despite an offensive decline, remains a two -time... 00:28:38.700 --> 00:28:41.200 gold glove winner and expertly guides that talented 00:28:41.200 --> 00:28:43.380 pitching staff. The reality is you can probably 00:28:43.380 --> 00:28:45.900 find 40 home runs on the free agent market, but 00:28:45.900 --> 00:28:47.880 you cannot easily replace an elite defensive 00:28:47.880 --> 00:28:50.079 catcher who handles a pitching staff and has 00:28:50.079 --> 00:28:52.400 his unique athleticism and experience. They argue 00:28:52.400 --> 00:28:54.000 he's far and away the best catcher available, 00:28:54.119 --> 00:28:55.799 and they have no replacement ready behind the 00:28:55.799 --> 00:28:58.259 plate. Shifting gears to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 00:28:58.299 --> 00:29:00.700 the narrative around the organization has long 00:29:00.700 --> 00:29:03.460 been, as Pat McAfee recently said, an historical 00:29:03.460 --> 00:29:06.910 unwillingness to spend money. which frustrates 00:29:06.910 --> 00:29:09.230 fans who see talent wasted. The perception of 00:29:09.230 --> 00:29:11.750 the Pirates being one of baseball's most profitable 00:29:11.750 --> 00:29:14.309 teams, while historically refusing to invest 00:29:14.309 --> 00:29:16.990 in their roster, has been a massive source of 00:29:16.990 --> 00:29:19.650 fan frustration. They have star talent like Cy 00:29:19.650 --> 00:29:22.230 Young -Win or Paul Skeens, but never build around 00:29:22.230 --> 00:29:25.170 it. So is the Cy Young -Win finally forcing a 00:29:25.170 --> 00:29:28.799 change in philosophy? Rumor suggests yes. Sources 00:29:28.799 --> 00:29:30.980 indicate the organization is expected to add 00:29:30.980 --> 00:29:34.220 at least $30 million to their payroll for 2026 00:29:34.220 --> 00:29:37.240 to build a competitive team around Paul Skeens. 00:29:37.460 --> 00:29:39.779 While $30 million might seem small in the context 00:29:39.779 --> 00:29:42.539 of the Dodgers or Yankees for the Pirates, this 00:29:42.539 --> 00:29:44.319 marks a significant departure from their typical 00:29:44.319 --> 00:29:46.940 spending habits. It indicates a genuine attempt 00:29:46.940 --> 00:29:49.420 to contend while Skeens is under team control. 00:29:49.700 --> 00:29:51.779 The Twins, meanwhile, are focused on internal 00:29:51.779 --> 00:29:54.400 management with a Rule 5 draft deadline on November 00:29:54.400 --> 00:29:57.259 18th. They have some tough protection decisions 00:29:57.259 --> 00:29:59.579 to make for their 40 -man roster. They cleared 00:29:59.579 --> 00:30:01.880 space on their 40 -man roster early, leaving 00:30:01.880 --> 00:30:05.059 seven open spots. Teams have to protect any player 00:30:05.059 --> 00:30:08.099 eligible for the Rule 5 draft or risk losing 00:30:08.099 --> 00:30:10.779 them for a minimal cost. The Twins have four 00:30:10.779 --> 00:30:13.640 absolute givens to add before the deadline. Non 00:30:13.640 --> 00:30:15.819 -negotiable protections. So who are those four 00:30:15.819 --> 00:30:18.269 key prospects they can't risk losing? They include 00:30:18.269 --> 00:30:20.809 left -handed pitchers Connor Prelip and Kendri 00:30:20.809 --> 00:30:23.730 Rojas, right -hander Andrew Morris, and outfielder 00:30:23.730 --> 00:30:27.170 Gabriel Gonzalez. Prelip is especially high -ceiling, 00:30:27.309 --> 00:30:29.630 finally staying healthy for over 80 innings between 00:30:29.630 --> 00:30:32.369 AA and AAA. Tell me more about Gabriel Gonzalez. 00:30:32.750 --> 00:30:34.990 I know he's a key piece from recent trade. He 00:30:34.990 --> 00:30:36.930 is the last remaining piece of the Jorge Polanco 00:30:36.930 --> 00:30:39.069 trade with Seattle, so losing him would be a 00:30:39.069 --> 00:30:41.990 disaster for that trade's return. Gonzalez had 00:30:41.990 --> 00:30:45.609 a major rebound year, posting a .909 OPS in 2025 00:30:45.609 --> 00:30:48.210 with 15 home runs. He's a high -ceiling prospect 00:30:48.210 --> 00:30:50.589 they cannot afford to lose. So protecting these 00:30:50.589 --> 00:30:52.769 four means their 40 -man roster will be nearly 00:30:52.769 --> 00:30:54.890 full, limiting their free agency flexibility 00:30:54.890 --> 00:30:57.930 a bit, but correctly prioritizing their own organizational 00:30:57.930 --> 00:31:01.680 talent. Exactly. Finally, we have some structural 00:31:01.680 --> 00:31:04.539 news around the league and a few noteworthy personnel 00:31:04.539 --> 00:31:06.940 and disciplinary items. On the organizational 00:31:06.940 --> 00:31:09.980 side, the Seidler family is exploring a potential 00:31:09.980 --> 00:31:13.460 sale of the Padres. This is significant given 00:31:13.460 --> 00:31:15.420 the volatile spending and management over the 00:31:15.420 --> 00:31:18.160 last few years in San Diego. new ownership could 00:31:18.160 --> 00:31:20.640 mean a total philosophy shift. Meanwhile, the 00:31:20.640 --> 00:31:24.220 Orioles, after a successful 2025, have made a 00:31:24.220 --> 00:31:26.920 key coaching hire, bringing in former Nationals 00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:29.640 interim manager Miguel Cairo as their infield 00:31:29.640 --> 00:31:31.960 coach. We also have news about a veteran pitcher 00:31:31.960 --> 00:31:34.140 who plans to return next season, potentially 00:31:34.140 --> 00:31:37.299 offering some depth. Yes, veteran swingman Erasmo 00:31:37.299 --> 00:31:40.819 Ramirez, who is 34, plans to pitch in 2026 and 00:31:40.819 --> 00:31:42.960 is currently training as a starter. He offers 00:31:42.960 --> 00:31:45.640 valuable flexibility. He's likely best suited 00:31:45.640 --> 00:31:48.140 for a swingman. role, which could appeal to teams 00:31:48.140 --> 00:31:50.319 needing reliable multi -inning depth without 00:31:50.319 --> 00:31:52.960 committing major payroll. And lastly, a serious 00:31:52.960 --> 00:31:55.359 piece of lead disciplinary news concerning two 00:31:55.359 --> 00:31:58.440 prominent relievers. Emmanuel Klus and Luis Ortiz 00:31:58.440 --> 00:32:00.500 have both been indicted on gambling charges. 00:32:01.289 --> 00:32:04.069 This adds a serious note to the offseason, reminding 00:32:04.069 --> 00:32:06.430 everyone of the strict rules surrounding player 00:32:06.430 --> 00:32:08.769 involvement with sports betting, regardless of 00:32:08.769 --> 00:32:10.769 whether they bet on baseball or other sports. 00:32:10.950 --> 00:32:13.450 To synthesize what we've discussed, the baseball 00:32:13.450 --> 00:32:16.250 landscape is just incredibly dynamic right now. 00:32:16.349 --> 00:32:19.069 You have the Blue Jays and the Dodgers aggressively 00:32:19.069 --> 00:32:22.400 addressing their World Series outcomes. And Toronto 00:32:22.400 --> 00:32:25.779 in particular is showing massive ambition, targeting 00:32:25.779 --> 00:32:28.420 top -tier talents like Kyle Tucker and Edwin 00:32:28.420 --> 00:32:30.579 Diaz. And the major market decisions around Pete 00:32:30.579 --> 00:32:33.319 Alonso and the top relievers will dictate the 00:32:33.319 --> 00:32:35.900 movement of the entire league. The decision on 00:32:35.900 --> 00:32:38.319 a four -year versus a five -year deal for Alonso 00:32:38.319 --> 00:32:40.440 could send him to a division rival. Which would 00:32:40.440 --> 00:32:42.660 create a massive ripple effect in the first base 00:32:42.660 --> 00:32:44.910 market. At the same time, the Mets' decision 00:32:44.910 --> 00:32:47.609 on whether to incur QFA penalties for a top starter 00:32:47.609 --> 00:32:50.349 or go after less costly international talent, 00:32:50.509 --> 00:32:52.930 like Tatsuya Imai, will shape their rotation 00:32:52.930 --> 00:32:55.789 for years. What stands out most profoundly, though, 00:32:55.930 --> 00:32:59.549 is the juxtaposition between the extreme high 00:32:59.549 --> 00:33:02.809 -end spending $150 million for Bregman, $100 00:33:02.809 --> 00:33:05.650 million rumored for Diaz, and the incredible 00:33:05.650 --> 00:33:08.859 value found in unheralded players. That's the 00:33:08.859 --> 00:33:10.960 constant tension in baseball that GMs have to 00:33:10.960 --> 00:33:13.279 manage. We talk about the massive, decade -long 00:33:13.279 --> 00:33:15.640 contracts sought by Alonzo, but then you look 00:33:15.640 --> 00:33:18.099 at the success stories of utility players. Miguel 00:33:18.099 --> 00:33:20.460 Rojas delivering the game -tying World Series 00:33:20.460 --> 00:33:24.079 Game 7 home run at minimal cost. Or Ernie Clements, 00:33:24.099 --> 00:33:25.859 who has picked up off the scrap heap and hit 00:33:25.859 --> 00:33:28.960 .411 in the postseason. They weren't the stars, 00:33:29.000 --> 00:33:31.039 but they were the difference makers in the crucial 00:33:31.039 --> 00:33:33.829 moments of the 2025 season. They offered extraordinary 00:33:33.829 --> 00:33:36.230 return on investment when the pressure was highest. 00:33:36.470 --> 00:33:38.890 Exactly. This highlights baseball's constant 00:33:38.890 --> 00:33:41.170 tension between stars and depth. The question 00:33:41.170 --> 00:33:44.549 GM's face is, do I buy $100 million closer? Or 00:33:44.549 --> 00:33:46.549 do I use that money to sign 10 players like Rojas 00:33:46.549 --> 00:33:49.269 and Clement? So here is the final provocative 00:33:49.269 --> 00:33:52.430 thought for you to mull over. The success stories 00:33:52.430 --> 00:33:55.230 of these utility players, Rojas and Clement, 00:33:55.509 --> 00:33:58.630 winning the World Series, it suggests that depth 00:33:58.630 --> 00:34:01.910 players and high -quality utility value are being 00:34:01.910 --> 00:34:04.630 significantly undervalued by the market compared 00:34:04.630 --> 00:34:07.480 to sluggers. So will the league actually learn 00:34:07.480 --> 00:34:10.159 from Toronto's and L .A.'s championship paths? 00:34:10.519 --> 00:34:13.119 Will they start prioritizing these high floor, 00:34:13.260 --> 00:34:15.719 high versatility deep players in the coming years? 00:34:15.940 --> 00:34:18.159 Or will the bidding wars for a limited number 00:34:18.159 --> 00:34:22.320 of aging, high power stars just intensify, driven 00:34:22.320 --> 00:34:24.719 by fan excitement and marketing dollars, leaving 00:34:24.719 --> 00:34:27.280 teams vulnerable when those unexpected, cost 00:34:27.280 --> 00:34:29.579 -controlled heroes are needed most in October? 00:34:30.000 --> 00:34:31.940 A truly fascinating question that we will see 00:34:31.940 --> 00:34:33.800 answered over the next few weeks as these big 00:34:33.800 --> 00:34:36.000 contracts get signed. We'll be watching to see 00:34:36.000 --> 00:34:38.699 if GMs pivot toward that Clement and Rojas model 00:34:38.699 --> 00:34:41.300 of value, or if they continue chasing the huge 00:34:41.300 --> 00:34:43.539 power bats this offseason. Thank you for joining 00:34:43.539 --> 00:34:46.639 us on this deep dive into the 2026 baseball offseason. 00:34:46.739 --> 00:34:47.559 Until next time.