WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.720 Welcome to the Crypto News Rundown, where we 00:00:01.720 --> 00:00:03.799 are kicking off our weekly analysis, getting 00:00:03.799 --> 00:00:06.679 right into the major crypto events, the big structural 00:00:06.679 --> 00:00:09.699 shifts in the market, and some really surprising 00:00:09.699 --> 00:00:11.939 regulatory moments that are reshaping the landscape. 00:00:12.179 --> 00:00:15.500 It was a week of, well, really stark contrasts. 00:00:15.500 --> 00:00:18.199 A fascinating clash, you could say. A clash, 00:00:18.300 --> 00:00:21.460 how so? On one side, you had this pretty dramatic 00:00:21.460 --> 00:00:24.719 volatility. price dips that reflect a lot of 00:00:24.719 --> 00:00:26.920 short -term fear, mostly in the retail market. 00:00:27.239 --> 00:00:30.579 But on the other side, that fear was met, and 00:00:30.579 --> 00:00:33.619 I mean aggressively countered, by these powerful, 00:00:33.780 --> 00:00:37.299 almost undeniable institutional moves, a real 00:00:37.299 --> 00:00:39.859 sense of long -term conviction from some of the 00:00:39.859 --> 00:00:41.840 biggest players out there. Exactly. It's like 00:00:41.840 --> 00:00:43.320 we're tracking these institutional footprints, 00:00:43.579 --> 00:00:45.240 and they're just getting deeper and deeper in 00:00:45.240 --> 00:00:47.460 the same. So today we're going to unpack a few 00:00:47.460 --> 00:00:49.280 critical stories that are really going to define 00:00:49.280 --> 00:00:51.299 the market as we head towards the end of the 00:00:51.299 --> 00:00:53.890 year. For sure. We're starting with Bitcoin's 00:00:53.890 --> 00:00:57.170 hard -fought recovery. We'll get deep into the 00:00:57.170 --> 00:01:00.329 huge BlackRock ETF news and then break down what's 00:01:00.329 --> 00:01:02.250 happening at major corporate treasuries. We're 00:01:02.250 --> 00:01:05.230 talking strategy, MetaPlanet, and even Elon Musk's 00:01:05.230 --> 00:01:07.930 SpaceX. And we also have a major security crisis 00:01:07.930 --> 00:01:11.469 to talk about. The breach that hit Upbit, South 00:01:11.469 --> 00:01:14.250 Korea's biggest exchange, and what that means 00:01:14.250 --> 00:01:17.060 for Solana security everywhere. From there, we're 00:01:17.060 --> 00:01:20.159 looking at the, let's call it the altcoin ETF 00:01:20.159 --> 00:01:23.219 report card. Huh, I like that. Yeah, comparing 00:01:23.219 --> 00:01:27.060 the really stellar performance of XRP, which 00:01:27.060 --> 00:01:29.920 is all about regulation, against the, well, the 00:01:29.920 --> 00:01:31.879 disappointing start for Dogecoin and some of 00:01:31.879 --> 00:01:33.620 the shifts we're seeing in the Solana funds. 00:01:33.819 --> 00:01:35.659 And we'll wrap up by looking at how this is all 00:01:35.659 --> 00:01:38.500 playing out globally, from the SEC giving a really 00:01:38.500 --> 00:01:42.200 crucial green light to DePin, to stablecoins 00:01:42.200 --> 00:01:44.120 basically acting as legal tender in emerging 00:01:44.120 --> 00:01:47.019 markets. It's a lot. OK, let's unpack this, starting 00:01:47.019 --> 00:01:49.579 with the king coin, Bitcoin and the institutional 00:01:49.579 --> 00:01:51.739 flow that's holding up the market. So let's start 00:01:51.739 --> 00:01:53.379 with the big story over the U .S. Thanksgiving 00:01:53.379 --> 00:01:57.819 holiday. On paper, it was, let's be honest, an 00:01:57.819 --> 00:02:01.359 undeniable disappointment. Bitcoin hit $91 ,000. 00:02:01.700 --> 00:02:04.140 Which is an incredible number in a vacuum. An 00:02:04.140 --> 00:02:07.180 amazing number. But it failed to top the 2024 00:02:07.180 --> 00:02:12.800 high of $95 ,737. And that gap, that little bit 00:02:12.800 --> 00:02:15.300 of failure to set a new high, that's the psychological 00:02:15.300 --> 00:02:17.039 friction the market's dealing with right now. 00:02:17.180 --> 00:02:20.080 I mean, if you zoom way out, we are in an incredible 00:02:20.080 --> 00:02:23.219 bull cycle. Of course. But when you zoom in on 00:02:23.219 --> 00:02:25.659 just this recent performance, while not clearing 00:02:25.659 --> 00:02:28.379 last year's peak, it just highlights how much 00:02:28.379 --> 00:02:31.879 higher investors really expected 2025 to go. 00:02:32.039 --> 00:02:34.460 And historically, a year over year drop like 00:02:34.460 --> 00:02:37.389 this is. It's pretty rare, isn't it? It's very 00:02:37.389 --> 00:02:39.610 rare. I mean, the journey is just insane. Yeah. 00:02:39.689 --> 00:02:43.189 From zero in 2009, crossing $1 ,000 in 2013, 00:02:43.389 --> 00:02:45.590 and then you hit those first two years of holiday 00:02:45.590 --> 00:02:50.189 price drops, 2014 down to $369, 2015 down to 00:02:50.189 --> 00:02:54.110 $356. Painful years. Oh, they were brutal. Real 00:02:54.110 --> 00:02:56.310 existential doubt in the community back then. 00:02:56.629 --> 00:02:59.750 Then you get the massive spike to over $95 ,000 00:02:59.750 --> 00:03:04.400 in 2024. Seeing it at 91 now, it just means we're 00:03:04.400 --> 00:03:07.080 in one of those rare years like 14 and 15 where 00:03:07.080 --> 00:03:09.879 we didn't set a new holiday high. That context 00:03:09.879 --> 00:03:12.759 helps a little. But even with that price dip, 00:03:12.919 --> 00:03:15.960 the underlying mechanics are telling a different 00:03:15.960 --> 00:03:18.120 story, right? A much more bullish story. If you 00:03:18.120 --> 00:03:19.979 look at the footprint charts, you can see what 00:03:19.979 --> 00:03:22.180 analysts are calling a persistent bid absorbing 00:03:22.180 --> 00:03:26.039 any and all declines below $90 ,000. And what 00:03:26.039 --> 00:03:28.460 does that mean exactly? A persistent bid. It 00:03:28.460 --> 00:03:30.759 means every time the price dips below $90 ,000, 00:03:30.759 --> 00:03:33.159 big buyers are stepping in. And this isn't, you 00:03:33.159 --> 00:03:35.259 know, small retail investors making panic buys. 00:03:35.520 --> 00:03:38.219 This is a large, deliberate, almost programmatic 00:03:38.219 --> 00:03:40.319 buying pressure. It's institutional accumulation. 00:03:40.860 --> 00:03:43.060 So they're defending that $90 ,000 level. They're 00:03:43.060 --> 00:03:45.520 defending it and they're consuming the supply 00:03:45.520 --> 00:03:48.560 from passive sellers who are stacked up just 00:03:48.560 --> 00:03:51.080 under $92 ,000. The whole dynamic is shifting 00:03:51.080 --> 00:03:54.039 from just being defensive to something that feels 00:03:54.039 --> 00:03:56.849 more like it's in. Well, full attack mode. So 00:03:56.849 --> 00:04:00.050 if that buying pressure is so persistent, what 00:04:00.050 --> 00:04:02.270 are the technical markers we should be looking 00:04:02.270 --> 00:04:05.629 for? What suggests a reversal might actually 00:04:05.629 --> 00:04:08.710 be setting up? Well, technically, the market's 00:04:08.710 --> 00:04:11.569 already showing a very clear high or low structure. 00:04:11.830 --> 00:04:13.889 OK, for anyone who isn't glued to the charts 00:04:13.889 --> 00:04:16.069 all day, what does that mean? it just means that 00:04:16.069 --> 00:04:18.949 after the price tested a recent low point it 00:04:18.949 --> 00:04:21.709 bounced and then on the next dip it didn't go 00:04:21.709 --> 00:04:23.810 all the way back down it found its footing at 00:04:23.810 --> 00:04:27.040 a higher low That's a classic sign that the bears 00:04:27.040 --> 00:04:31.399 are losing steam and the buyers are slowly building 00:04:31.399 --> 00:04:33.300 a bullish structure. And we're seeing other signs, 00:04:33.480 --> 00:04:35.860 too. Yeah, we're seeing increasing intraday volume. 00:04:35.980 --> 00:04:38.279 So more money is actually moving during the day. 00:04:38.379 --> 00:04:41.360 And the RSI, the relative strength index, is 00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:44.420 recovering. That suggests the asset isn't seen 00:04:44.420 --> 00:04:46.779 as oversold anymore and momentum is building 00:04:46.779 --> 00:04:49.199 back up. And you can draw a straight line from 00:04:49.199 --> 00:04:52.019 this buying pressure directly to what's happening 00:04:52.019 --> 00:04:54.389 in the broader macro environment. Absolutely. 00:04:54.629 --> 00:04:56.689 The institutional buying is lining up perfectly 00:04:56.689 --> 00:04:59.930 with these improving macro tailwinds. We're seeing 00:04:59.930 --> 00:05:01.970 treasury yields falling. Inflation expectations 00:05:01.970 --> 00:05:04.250 are coming down. Which all points to the Fed. 00:05:04.410 --> 00:05:07.149 It all points to a December Fed rate cut. The 00:05:07.149 --> 00:05:10.730 CME Group's FedWatch tool, it now puts the probability 00:05:10.730 --> 00:05:14.990 of a 25 basis point cut at 85 percent. 85 percent. 00:05:15.069 --> 00:05:17.170 And what was it last week? That's the crazy part. 00:05:17.329 --> 00:05:20.389 It's a 46 percent jump in probability in just 00:05:20.389 --> 00:05:23.949 one week. Wow. So why does a jump like that hit 00:05:23.949 --> 00:05:26.110 Bitcoin so hard? What's the direct connection? 00:05:26.509 --> 00:05:29.069 Because Bitcoin, for all intents and purposes, 00:05:29.269 --> 00:05:31.509 acts like a long duration asset. It's a bit like 00:05:31.509 --> 00:05:34.250 a tech growth stock. So when interest rates are 00:05:34.250 --> 00:05:36.610 expected to fall, the present value of future 00:05:36.610 --> 00:05:40.339 value, it goes up. Lower rates also mean cheaper 00:05:40.339 --> 00:05:43.100 money. So big institutions are encouraged to 00:05:43.100 --> 00:05:45.740 move capital out of safer things like treasuries 00:05:45.740 --> 00:05:48.620 and into riskier high growth assets like Bitcoin. 00:05:48.819 --> 00:05:51.560 That massive jump in probability, it's a huge 00:05:51.560 --> 00:05:53.899 green light for them. It confirms the risk on 00:05:53.899 --> 00:05:56.540 trade is back. Speaking of institutional conviction, 00:05:57.000 --> 00:06:00.300 BlackRock's I Bid It. It is just showing incredible 00:06:00.300 --> 00:06:02.660 durability right now. It's a huge psychological 00:06:02.660 --> 00:06:05.319 milestone. Holders of the iShares Bitcoin Trust's 00:06:05.319 --> 00:06:07.639 ETF have officially flipped back into profit. 00:06:07.800 --> 00:06:11.699 We're talking a cumulative gain of $3 .2 billion. 00:06:12.259 --> 00:06:15.100 And that's after a pretty scary dip. A very scary 00:06:15.100 --> 00:06:17.980 dip. Just four days before that, the cumulative 00:06:17.980 --> 00:06:21.819 profit had shrunk all the way down to $630 million. 00:06:22.720 --> 00:06:26.259 So this rapid V -shaped recovery, it just reinforces 00:06:26.259 --> 00:06:28.519 confidence, especially for the big players who 00:06:28.519 --> 00:06:30.819 bought that dip. And it wasn't just iBit. No, 00:06:30.920 --> 00:06:34.480 the spot Bitcoin ETFs as a whole had two straight 00:06:34.480 --> 00:06:37.480 days of inflows, only 21 million total. But it 00:06:37.480 --> 00:06:39.939 was enough to end a painful two week outflow 00:06:39.939 --> 00:06:42.879 streak. But iBit is still in a class of its own, 00:06:42.899 --> 00:06:46.220 isn't it? It is. According to K33 research, iBit 00:06:46.220 --> 00:06:48.980 is the only spot Bitcoin ETF to maintain net 00:06:48.980 --> 00:06:51.319 positive inflows throughout the whole of 2025. 00:06:51.819 --> 00:06:54.319 That is an incredible statistic. It says everything 00:06:54.319 --> 00:06:56.379 about BlackRock's distribution power and the 00:06:56.379 --> 00:06:58.420 trust that institutions put in that brand. The 00:06:58.420 --> 00:07:00.819 momentum is so strong that iBit is now getting 00:07:00.819 --> 00:07:03.720 what people are calling the Mag7 treatment from 00:07:03.720 --> 00:07:06.500 regulators. Yeah, this is huge. NASDAQ's eyes 00:07:06.500 --> 00:07:09.420 proposed increasing the trading limits for iBit 00:07:09.420 --> 00:07:12.199 options to one million contracts. One million. 00:07:12.220 --> 00:07:14.980 One million. That is putting Bitcoin derivatives 00:07:14.980 --> 00:07:18.100 on the exact same level as the biggest stocks 00:07:18.100 --> 00:07:22.139 in the world. We're talking Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, 00:07:22.500 --> 00:07:25.459 the Magnificent Seven. So what does that actually 00:07:25.459 --> 00:07:28.199 do for the market? Well, iBit already holds over 00:07:28.199 --> 00:07:32.240 $86 billion in Bitcoin. Analysts are thinking 00:07:32.240 --> 00:07:35.279 this move could inject more than $5 billion in 00:07:35.279 --> 00:07:37.759 new derivatives activity, and that creates this 00:07:37.759 --> 00:07:40.500 powerful feedback loop. How so? More derivative 00:07:40.500 --> 00:07:42.639 demand means market makers and institutional 00:07:42.639 --> 00:07:45.199 hedgers have to go out and buy the underlying 00:07:45.199 --> 00:07:48.879 asset, the actual BTC, to cover their positions. 00:07:48.959 --> 00:07:51.899 It just pours fuel on the fire. It's a huge validation 00:07:51.899 --> 00:07:54.540 of Bitcoin as a core financial asset. And then, 00:07:54.560 --> 00:07:56.860 as if that wasn't enough validation, we get the 00:07:56.860 --> 00:08:00.060 news out of Texas. A truly landmark moment. Texas 00:08:00.060 --> 00:08:02.339 became the first U .S. state to purchase Bitcoin 00:08:02.339 --> 00:08:04.839 for its public treasury. Which accelerates this 00:08:04.839 --> 00:08:07.360 whole state level crypto treasury race that's 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:09.000 been bubbling under the surface. Absolutely. 00:08:09.180 --> 00:08:11.360 The purchase happened in mid -November at an 00:08:11.360 --> 00:08:14.240 average price of around $87 ,000. And they did 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:16.980 it through BlackRock's iBit ETF. So not self 00:08:16.980 --> 00:08:19.839 -custody. They use the ETF. And that's the strategic 00:08:19.839 --> 00:08:23.519 part. By using the ETF, they get immediate regulated 00:08:23.519 --> 00:08:26.819 exposure to the asset. They get to bypass all 00:08:26.819 --> 00:08:29.430 the complex legal and custodial... real hurdles 00:08:29.430 --> 00:08:30.970 that would come with trying to hold the keys 00:08:30.970 --> 00:08:33.570 themselves. So why is this so important for the 00:08:33.570 --> 00:08:35.129 rest of the market? What's the precedent here? 00:08:35.399 --> 00:08:38.080 The precedent is that it signals to every other 00:08:38.080 --> 00:08:40.500 state treasury and every public pension fund 00:08:40.500 --> 00:08:43.080 in the country that these regulated products, 00:08:43.299 --> 00:08:47.200 these spot Bitcoin ETFs, are now viable and acceptable 00:08:47.200 --> 00:08:50.299 tools for long term strategic allocation. It's 00:08:50.299 --> 00:08:52.399 not just a speculative venture anymore. Exactly. 00:08:52.559 --> 00:08:55.320 Texas is treating Bitcoin as a legitimate hedge 00:08:55.320 --> 00:08:57.600 against federal monetary policy and inflation, 00:08:57.899 --> 00:09:00.720 while at the same time they're laying the groundwork 00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:04.059 for future self -custody if and when the state's 00:09:04.059 --> 00:09:06.440 own reg - regulatory framework evolves to allow 00:09:06.440 --> 00:09:09.480 it. It's a very smart two step play. Now, this 00:09:09.480 --> 00:09:12.059 recent volatility has been a huge stress test 00:09:12.059 --> 00:09:14.500 for the corporate treasuries that followed this 00:09:14.500 --> 00:09:17.240 playbook. Let's start with strategy, formerly 00:09:17.240 --> 00:09:20.019 MicroStrategy. They rolled out a whole new credit 00:09:20.019 --> 00:09:22.259 dashboard basically to calm investor nerves after 00:09:22.259 --> 00:09:24.980 the price dip. And their confidence is, well, 00:09:25.100 --> 00:09:27.250 remarkably high. They're not worried. Not at 00:09:27.250 --> 00:09:29.809 all. They claim they have a 71 year dividend 00:09:29.809 --> 00:09:32.629 payment runway to service their debt, even if 00:09:32.629 --> 00:09:35.230 the price of Bitcoin just stayed flat for decades. 00:09:35.509 --> 00:09:39.049 71 years. Yeah. Their debt coverage ratio, what 00:09:39.049 --> 00:09:42.309 they call their BTC rating, is at 5 .9 times 00:09:42.309 --> 00:09:44.309 their debt. And that's because their average 00:09:44.309 --> 00:09:48.649 cost basis is so low, around $74 ,000. So the 00:09:48.649 --> 00:09:50.710 liquidation fears that we saw in the last cycle, 00:09:50.809 --> 00:09:52.990 that's pretty much off the table for strategy. 00:09:53.250 --> 00:09:56.389 For them, yes. Their debt is well managed. And 00:09:56.389 --> 00:09:59.509 crucially, their MNAV ratio, that's the enterprise 00:09:59.509 --> 00:10:01.509 value of the company divided by the value of 00:10:01.509 --> 00:10:04.690 its crypto holdings, is still above one. It's 00:10:04.690 --> 00:10:07.610 at 1 .16. OK, can you break that down for us? 00:10:07.669 --> 00:10:11.049 What does an MNAV ratio of 1 .16 actually tell 00:10:11.049 --> 00:10:13.529 us? It's basically a measure of market confidence. 00:10:14.059 --> 00:10:16.340 If the ratio is above one, it means the market 00:10:16.340 --> 00:10:18.679 values the company for more than just the Bitcoin 00:10:18.679 --> 00:10:21.159 it holds. They're pricing in a premium for its 00:10:21.159 --> 00:10:23.940 ability to keep executing its accumulation strategy. 00:10:24.100 --> 00:10:26.559 So the market thinks strategy itself is worth 00:10:26.559 --> 00:10:29.100 16 percent more than all its Bitcoin and its 00:10:29.100 --> 00:10:31.929 software business combined. Exactly. And that 00:10:31.929 --> 00:10:34.529 gives them the power to raise more money by issuing 00:10:34.529 --> 00:10:37.450 new stock if they want to. It's a very powerful 00:10:37.450 --> 00:10:40.769 signal of stability and market trust. Now, you 00:10:40.769 --> 00:10:43.389 contrast that incredibly strong position with 00:10:43.389 --> 00:10:45.269 what's happening over at Japan's meta planet. 00:10:45.470 --> 00:10:48.450 A much, much more precarious situation. The market 00:10:48.450 --> 00:10:50.210 is really holding its breath on this one. Why? 00:10:50.370 --> 00:10:52.850 What's the problem? Well, meta planet is nearing. 00:10:53.210 --> 00:10:56.129 A serious inflection point. They hold 30 ,000 00:10:56.129 --> 00:10:59.070 Bitcoin, but their average cost is way higher 00:10:59.070 --> 00:11:02.289 than the current price. It's around $108 ,000 00:11:02.289 --> 00:11:05.269 per coin. Ouch. So with Bitcoin trading around 00:11:05.269 --> 00:11:09.610 87 ,000, they're, what, 17 % underwater. Almost 00:11:09.610 --> 00:11:13.070 exactly. That's about $640 million in unrealized 00:11:13.070 --> 00:11:15.129 losses right now. And to make it worse, they 00:11:15.129 --> 00:11:17.470 just added a ton of leverage. Precisely. They 00:11:17.470 --> 00:11:20.490 recently borrowed an additional $130 million 00:11:20.490 --> 00:11:23.970 using their existing Bitcoin as collateral. So 00:11:23.970 --> 00:11:26.509 for them to just break even, Bitcoin needs to 00:11:26.509 --> 00:11:29.909 get back to $108 ,000. Just to break even. For 00:11:29.909 --> 00:11:32.570 their whole leveraged investment model to actually 00:11:32.570 --> 00:11:35.360 work. to make a profit and service that debt, 00:11:35.580 --> 00:11:39.299 analysts think Bitcoin needs to get above $130 00:11:39.299 --> 00:11:43.639 ,000. That seems optimistic in this market. So 00:11:43.639 --> 00:11:45.320 what's the timeline here? What's the immediate 00:11:45.320 --> 00:11:48.230 risk? The risk is huge because they have two 00:11:48.230 --> 00:11:50.850 massive dates coming up in December. First is 00:11:50.850 --> 00:11:53.529 December 18th, the Bank of Japan's interest rate 00:11:53.529 --> 00:11:56.429 decision. Right. If the Boje tightens policy, 00:11:56.789 --> 00:11:59.870 the yen gets stronger, and that could push Bitcoin's 00:11:59.870 --> 00:12:02.830 price down even further in local currency terms. 00:12:03.009 --> 00:12:04.710 Which would look really bad right before their 00:12:04.710 --> 00:12:07.269 shareholder vote. Exactly. The second date is 00:12:07.269 --> 00:12:09.690 December 22nd. That's a critical shareholder 00:12:09.690 --> 00:12:13.429 vote on a $135 million fundraising plan, which 00:12:13.429 --> 00:12:16.500 they desperately need. So if the Bojay tightens, 00:12:16.500 --> 00:12:19.360 the vote could fail. It absolutely could. We're 00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:21.500 already hearing whispers that some of the big 00:12:21.500 --> 00:12:23.179 institutional shareholders are getting nervous. 00:12:23.539 --> 00:12:26.279 If that vote fails and Bitcoin dips further, 00:12:26.539 --> 00:12:28.639 you could start seeing margin call scenarios. 00:12:28.860 --> 00:12:31.820 It's a very tight spot for them. OK, shifting 00:12:31.820 --> 00:12:36.100 gears to Elon Musk. SpaceX made a big move this 00:12:36.100 --> 00:12:38.690 week that got a lot of analysts talking. Yeah, 00:12:38.730 --> 00:12:42.470 they transferred 1 ,163 Bitcoin, that's worth 00:12:42.470 --> 00:12:46.350 about $105 million, to new wallets linked to 00:12:46.350 --> 00:12:50.129 Coinbase Prime. And this isn't a sale? No. Analysts 00:12:50.129 --> 00:12:52.190 at Arkham Intelligence are very firm on this. 00:12:52.370 --> 00:12:54.990 It's not a sale or a liquidation. It's about 00:12:54.990 --> 00:12:57.830 professionalizing their custody. So moving it 00:12:57.830 --> 00:13:01.399 somewhere safer, more regulated. That's the consensus. 00:13:01.740 --> 00:13:04.539 Moving funds to Coinbase Prime is what you do 00:13:04.539 --> 00:13:06.620 when you're a major corporation and you view 00:13:06.620 --> 00:13:09.360 this asset as a long term strategic reserve. 00:13:09.620 --> 00:13:12.100 It's about higher security, regulatory compliance, 00:13:12.379 --> 00:13:15.179 all of that. SpaceX is still the fourth largest 00:13:15.179 --> 00:13:18.379 private holder of Bitcoin, with over 6000 coins 00:13:18.379 --> 00:13:20.179 worth more than half a billion dollars. This 00:13:20.179 --> 00:13:22.259 is just them growing up. From the professionalization 00:13:22.259 --> 00:13:24.940 of custody, we now have to turn to a very stark 00:13:24.940 --> 00:13:27.360 reminder that centralized exchanges are still. 00:13:27.960 --> 00:13:30.480 Well, massive honeypots. Yeah, this is a serious 00:13:30.480 --> 00:13:32.860 incident this week. South Korea's biggest crypto 00:13:32.860 --> 00:13:35.759 exchange, Upbit, suffered a major breach. How 00:13:35.759 --> 00:13:37.860 much are we talking? Unauthorized withdrawals 00:13:37.860 --> 00:13:41.279 totaling about 36 .9 million U .S. dollars or 00:13:41.279 --> 00:13:45.419 54 billion Korean won. And the timing just amplified 00:13:45.419 --> 00:13:48.299 the shock. It happened right after Upbit's parent 00:13:48.299 --> 00:13:52.000 company, Dunamu, announced this massive $10 billion 00:13:52.000 --> 00:13:55.139 acquisition deal and revealed plans for a U .S. 00:13:55.139 --> 00:13:59.679 IPO. And the timing was... Disturbingly precise, 00:13:59.980 --> 00:14:01.840 wasn't it? It lined up with a previous hack. 00:14:02.059 --> 00:14:04.320 The timing is unsettling, to say the least. The 00:14:04.320 --> 00:14:06.860 hack happened on November 27th. That is the exact 00:14:06.860 --> 00:14:08.940 same calendar date as a major breach back in 00:14:08.940 --> 00:14:11.299 2019, which was linked to North Korean state 00:14:11.299 --> 00:14:14.259 actors. Wow. Is there a confirmed link this time? 00:14:14.399 --> 00:14:16.620 No confirmed link yet, but that coincidence alone 00:14:16.620 --> 00:14:19.039 has sparked some really intense speculation about 00:14:19.039 --> 00:14:21.419 a sophisticated recurring attack. So what were 00:14:21.419 --> 00:14:23.759 the hackers targeting? The focus was exclusively 00:14:23.759 --> 00:14:26.379 on Solana ecosystem tokens, and they were all 00:14:26.379 --> 00:14:29.080 held in the exchange's hot wallet. So the operational 00:14:29.080 --> 00:14:31.220 wallet, not the cold storage. Right. The vast 00:14:31.220 --> 00:14:33.340 majority of user funds in cold storage remain 00:14:33.340 --> 00:14:35.720 completely secure. The attackers just drained 00:14:35.720 --> 00:14:38.000 a whole basket of high -value Solana tokens, 00:14:38.320 --> 00:14:43.019 SOL, USDC, Biomank, JUP, RayRender, a bunch of 00:14:43.019 --> 00:14:45.080 others. Do we have any idea how they got in? 00:14:45.740 --> 00:14:49.299 Was it a private key compromise? A software bug? 00:14:50.159 --> 00:14:53.519 An insider. Exchanges rarely give up the specifics, 00:14:53.779 --> 00:14:55.960 but analysts are looking at three main theories. 00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:59.419 First, a sophisticated zero -day exploit in the 00:14:59.419 --> 00:15:02.200 Solana software app it was running. Second, a 00:15:02.200 --> 00:15:04.559 simple private key compromise, which can happen 00:15:04.559 --> 00:15:07.019 with operational hot wallets. And the third theory. 00:15:07.360 --> 00:15:10.620 Given the history with the 2019 breach, an insider 00:15:10.620 --> 00:15:13.460 threat or a very deep social engineering attack 00:15:13.460 --> 00:15:16.220 is still a high probability, especially because 00:15:16.220 --> 00:15:19.039 the theft was so fast and so targeted. So once 00:15:19.039 --> 00:15:20.940 Upbit figured out what was happening, what did 00:15:20.940 --> 00:15:24.299 they do? Their crisis management was a pretty 00:15:24.299 --> 00:15:26.580 textbook, to be honest. They immediately suspended 00:15:26.580 --> 00:15:29.120 all deposit and withdrawal services across every 00:15:29.120 --> 00:15:31.259 single network. Locked everything down. Everything. 00:15:31.399 --> 00:15:33.960 At the same time, they started this massive emergency 00:15:33.960 --> 00:15:36.759 transfer of every remaining asset into ultra 00:15:36.759 --> 00:15:39.679 secure cold storage and launched a full security 00:15:39.679 --> 00:15:42.299 audit of their entire system. Here's where it 00:15:42.299 --> 00:15:44.259 gets really interesting, though. The part that 00:15:44.259 --> 00:15:46.620 I think changes the whole story for users is 00:15:46.620 --> 00:15:49.049 the immediate guarantee of reimbursement. It 00:15:49.049 --> 00:15:52.409 absolutely does. The CEO of Dynamo, Oh Kyung 00:15:52.409 --> 00:15:55.649 -sook, issued an immediate, unequivocal guarantee 00:15:55.649 --> 00:15:58.549 of full user reimbursement. No questions asked. 00:15:58.710 --> 00:16:01.269 None. The company announced they would use Upbit's 00:16:01.269 --> 00:16:04.169 own corporate money to cover the $37 million 00:16:04.169 --> 00:16:07.129 loss. They turned it from a user problem into 00:16:07.129 --> 00:16:09.269 a corporate expense. And you think back to the 00:16:09.269 --> 00:16:13.970 history of big crypto hacks, Mt. Gox, FTX, customer 00:16:13.970 --> 00:16:16.379 funds were just... gone or frozen for years, 00:16:16.480 --> 00:16:18.539 this feels like a huge shift. It's a complete 00:16:18.539 --> 00:16:21.019 industry shift. Upbit's move prevents customer 00:16:21.019 --> 00:16:23.659 panic, it maintains trust, and it completely 00:16:23.659 --> 00:16:26.100 avoids a potential bank run, either just absorbing 00:16:26.100 --> 00:16:28.340 the loss to protect their members. And on top 00:16:28.340 --> 00:16:30.299 of that, they've already started recovery efforts, 00:16:30.539 --> 00:16:32.899 successfully freezing about $12 billion worth 00:16:32.899 --> 00:16:35.399 of one of the stolen tokens. But this puts a 00:16:35.399 --> 00:16:37.779 huge spotlight on Solana security across the 00:16:37.779 --> 00:16:40.559 board, not just at Upbit. That's right. The fact 00:16:40.559 --> 00:16:42.820 that they targeted a basket of SOL ecosystem 00:16:42.820 --> 00:16:46.580 tokens suggests a very sophisticated attack focused 00:16:46.580 --> 00:16:49.539 on that high speed layer one liquidity. You know, 00:16:49.539 --> 00:16:51.840 the CEO of Trezor noted that over two and a half 00:16:51.840 --> 00:16:54.159 billion dollars has been stolen just in 2025. 00:16:54.840 --> 00:16:57.860 This is a sharp reminder to all exchanges that 00:16:57.860 --> 00:17:01.139 security is a perpetual moving target. OK, let's 00:17:01.139 --> 00:17:03.659 shift our focus now to the very competitive world 00:17:03.659 --> 00:17:07.500 of altcoin ETFs. And we are seeing a huge divergence 00:17:07.500 --> 00:17:09.970 in performance here. massive one. And it really 00:17:09.970 --> 00:17:12.230 separates the assets that have regulatory clarity 00:17:12.230 --> 00:17:14.970 from the ones that are, well, still relying on 00:17:14.970 --> 00:17:16.809 pure meme speculation. So let's start with the 00:17:16.809 --> 00:17:20.039 clear winner. Yeah, XRP is definitely winning 00:17:20.039 --> 00:17:22.680 the altcoin ETF race right now, almost entirely 00:17:22.680 --> 00:17:25.960 because of its regulatory standing. The XRP ETFs 00:17:25.960 --> 00:17:28.259 are showing impressive cumulative net inflows 00:17:28.259 --> 00:17:31.339 of $643 million. And they have a perfect daily 00:17:31.339 --> 00:17:33.619 inflow streak, which is the most powerful contrast 00:17:33.619 --> 00:17:36.359 you can make with, say, the recent outflows in 00:17:36.359 --> 00:17:38.420 the Solana funds. It really is. It speaks directly 00:17:38.420 --> 00:17:40.579 to institutional conviction. And analysts think 00:17:40.579 --> 00:17:43.259 this is just the warm up. The warm up. Yeah, 00:17:43.319 --> 00:17:45.400 the current products from Grayscale, Franklin 00:17:45.400 --> 00:17:48.559 Templeton, Bitwise, they're just the early movers, 00:17:48.559 --> 00:17:51.460 the real institutional heavyweights, the BlackRock's 00:17:51.460 --> 00:17:53.400 infidelities of the world. They haven't even 00:17:53.400 --> 00:17:56.259 filed for a spot XRP ETF yet. And when they do? 00:17:56.380 --> 00:17:58.500 Some analysts are betting that when that volume 00:17:58.500 --> 00:18:00.880 hits, the XRP rally could actually be bigger 00:18:00.880 --> 00:18:03.380 than the one Bitcoin had. We're also seeing big 00:18:03.380 --> 00:18:05.559 shifts in the supply dynamics for XRP, right? 00:18:05.660 --> 00:18:08.859 We are. The amount of XRP held on exchanges, 00:18:09.160 --> 00:18:11.559 especially Binance, is collapsing. It's at its 00:18:11.559 --> 00:18:13.740 lowest point since August. Which is a bullish 00:18:13.740 --> 00:18:15.819 sign. It's a long -term bullish indicator, yeah. 00:18:16.279 --> 00:18:18.920 Less supply on exchanges means less sell -side 00:18:18.920 --> 00:18:21.299 pressure. It makes the price more elastic if 00:18:21.299 --> 00:18:23.480 and when a wave of demand kicks in. So you've 00:18:23.480 --> 00:18:25.940 got tightening supply and strengthening ETF demand 00:18:25.940 --> 00:18:28.099 happening at the same time. And on top of all 00:18:28.099 --> 00:18:31.269 that... Ripple scored a huge win for its stablecoin 00:18:31.269 --> 00:18:34.630 RLUSD this week. This is a massive win in the 00:18:34.630 --> 00:18:37.609 Middle East. It really cements RLUSD as a piece 00:18:37.609 --> 00:18:40.569 of foundational financial infrastructure. Ripple's 00:18:40.569 --> 00:18:42.930 stablecoin was officially recognized as an accepted 00:18:42.930 --> 00:18:45.190 fiat reference token in the Abu Dhabi global 00:18:45.190 --> 00:18:47.829 market. So it already had a strong regulatory 00:18:47.829 --> 00:18:50.910 footing in the U .S., in New York. What does 00:18:50.910 --> 00:18:53.789 this dual US -UAE compliance actually mean for 00:18:53.789 --> 00:18:56.650 institutions? It's transformative. It means licensed 00:18:56.650 --> 00:19:00.349 banks, custodians, payment firms, anyone in one 00:19:00.349 --> 00:19:02.509 of the world's most sophisticated financial hubs. 00:19:02.599 --> 00:19:07.160 can now legally hold, transfer, and use RLUSD 00:19:07.160 --> 00:19:09.859 for regulated financial activities. Like collateral 00:19:09.859 --> 00:19:12.960 lending? Collateral lending, settling cross -border 00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:16.160 payments, you name it. It moves RLUSD from being 00:19:16.160 --> 00:19:18.920 just another crypto token into a globally compliant 00:19:18.920 --> 00:19:22.140 tool for serious financial institutions. Okay, 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:23.819 now let's turn to the other side of the altcoin 00:19:23.819 --> 00:19:26.140 ETF market, where things have been a lot more 00:19:26.140 --> 00:19:29.200 turbulent. Starting with the debut of Grayscale's 00:19:29.200 --> 00:19:34.359 spot Dogecoin ETF. GDOG. It was, to put it mildly, 00:19:34.359 --> 00:19:37.440 a flop. A dud. A total dud. I mean, despite all 00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:39.880 the media hype, the fund only logged $1 .4 million 00:19:39.880 --> 00:19:42.500 in trading volume on day one. The forecasts were 00:19:42.500 --> 00:19:44.940 for $10 to $12 million. It missed by a huge margin. 00:19:45.140 --> 00:19:46.880 And the momentum just died almost immediately, 00:19:47.079 --> 00:19:48.839 which suggests that institutional appetite for 00:19:48.839 --> 00:19:51.599 pure meme exposure is basically zero. Well, on 00:19:51.599 --> 00:19:54.279 day two, inflows collapsed by 80%. They dropped 00:19:54.279 --> 00:19:57.640 to just $365 ,000. The market treated it like 00:19:57.640 --> 00:20:00.039 a one -day headline, nothing more. And it raises 00:20:00.039 --> 00:20:02.140 this really fundamental question. Which is? When 00:20:02.140 --> 00:20:04.500 regulators have given you a perfectly good path 00:20:04.500 --> 00:20:07.880 for exposure, why are the big institutions still 00:20:07.880 --> 00:20:11.240 shunning a high -profile meme asset like Dogecoin? 00:20:11.519 --> 00:20:13.900 What's the consensus on that? The consensus is 00:20:13.900 --> 00:20:15.640 that institutions are looking for assets with 00:20:15.640 --> 00:20:18.539 real demonstrable utility or a clear regulatory 00:20:18.539 --> 00:20:21.420 status like XRP. And if they are going to take 00:20:21.420 --> 00:20:23.339 on more risk, they want something that offers 00:20:23.339 --> 00:20:26.599 a compelling staking or yield mechanism. And 00:20:26.599 --> 00:20:29.940 Dogecoin offers none of that. None of it. So 00:20:29.940 --> 00:20:32.880 listing GDOG just proved that having a regulated 00:20:32.880 --> 00:20:35.119 wrapper isn't enough if the underlying asset 00:20:35.119 --> 00:20:37.259 doesn't have a foundational purpose. Meanwhile, 00:20:37.519 --> 00:20:39.980 the Solana ETFs had a pretty big speed bump this 00:20:39.980 --> 00:20:42.240 week. They recorded their first ever day of net 00:20:42.240 --> 00:20:46.079 out. That's right. About 8 .1 million in net 00:20:46.079 --> 00:20:48.680 outflows. And it was mostly driven by one fund, 00:20:48.799 --> 00:20:53.380 the 21 shares Solana ETF or TSOL. It saw a massive 00:20:53.380 --> 00:20:56.599 single day withdrawal of $34 million. But other 00:20:56.599 --> 00:20:59.539 Solana funds are still doing well, right? What's 00:20:59.539 --> 00:21:02.910 driving that divergence? The outflows from TSOL 00:21:02.910 --> 00:21:04.990 look like profit taking, especially with the 00:21:04.990 --> 00:21:07.309 market volatility and that up its security incident. 00:21:07.569 --> 00:21:10.650 But the overall Solana ETF category is still 00:21:10.650 --> 00:21:12.869 resilient because the funds that offer yield 00:21:12.869 --> 00:21:15.470 are still attracting money. Like the staking 00:21:15.470 --> 00:21:18.890 ETFs. Exactly. The Bitwise Solana staking ETF, 00:21:19.130 --> 00:21:22.250 BSOL, is still seeing inflows. It pulled in over 00:21:22.250 --> 00:21:25.750 13 million. And that suggests that the more sophisticated 00:21:25.750 --> 00:21:28.349 investors are favoring those staking features. 00:21:28.670 --> 00:21:30.650 They're treating those products as long term. 00:21:30.730 --> 00:21:33.269 revenue generating holds, not just short term 00:21:33.269 --> 00:21:35.789 trading vehicles. OK, moving over to Ethereum. 00:21:36.069 --> 00:21:38.809 The network is getting ready for some major technical 00:21:38.809 --> 00:21:41.930 upgrades. It is. This week, Ethereum validators 00:21:41.930 --> 00:21:44.710 pushed the main net block gas limit up to 60 00:21:44.710 --> 00:21:46.390 million. That's the highest it's been in four 00:21:46.390 --> 00:21:48.549 years. What does that actually mean for the network? 00:21:49.000 --> 00:21:51.400 It effectively doubles the previous cap, which 00:21:51.400 --> 00:21:53.079 means it can handle a lot more transactions. 00:21:53.440 --> 00:21:56.019 It's a huge boost for throughput and efficiency, 00:21:56.319 --> 00:21:58.400 especially with the big Fusaka upgrade coming 00:21:58.400 --> 00:22:00.579 on December 3rd. They're getting ready for a 00:22:00.579 --> 00:22:03.099 lot more activity from the Layer 2s. And while 00:22:03.099 --> 00:22:05.279 the network itself is scaling up, we're seeing 00:22:05.279 --> 00:22:08.819 some huge high -risk leveraged bets being placed 00:22:08.819 --> 00:22:12.130 on the asset. Yeah, we tracked a move from a 00:22:12.130 --> 00:22:15.309 prominent whale trader, goes by 1011 Short. He 00:22:15.309 --> 00:22:18.650 opened a highly leveraged $44 million long position. 00:22:18.690 --> 00:22:21.930 That's 15 ,000 ETH. Wow. What's his liquidation 00:22:21.930 --> 00:22:26.569 point? It's set down at $2 ,326. So it's a very 00:22:26.569 --> 00:22:29.690 clear high risk, high reward bet. It shows this 00:22:29.690 --> 00:22:32.549 intense individual conviction that ETH is about 00:22:32.549 --> 00:22:34.869 to break to the upside. At the same time, we're 00:22:34.869 --> 00:22:38.670 also seeing more cautious long term buying from 00:22:38.670 --> 00:22:40.829 the corporate side. That's the other side of 00:22:40.829 --> 00:22:43.329 the coin. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, which 00:22:43.329 --> 00:22:46.170 is listed on Nasdaq, they added almost 70 ,000 00:22:46.170 --> 00:22:49.069 more ETH to their holdings last week. How much 00:22:49.069 --> 00:22:51.390 do they hold now? Their total treasury is up 00:22:51.390 --> 00:22:55.609 to 3 .63 million ETH. That's roughly 3 % of the 00:22:55.609 --> 00:22:58.309 entire circulating supply. Now, they're reporting 00:22:58.309 --> 00:23:00.650 huge unrealized losses on that position, about 00:23:00.650 --> 00:23:02.769 3 .4 billion. But the fact that they're still 00:23:02.769 --> 00:23:04.950 accumulating just shows their long -term conviction 00:23:04.950 --> 00:23:07.789 in Ethereum's future. They're willing to stomach 00:23:07.789 --> 00:23:10.099 the volatility. And then we shift to the pure 00:23:10.099 --> 00:23:13.480 meme sector. And the picture for something like 00:23:13.480 --> 00:23:17.539 Shiba Inu is much gloomier. Yes, the data here 00:23:17.539 --> 00:23:21.319 is pretty unambiguous. About 200 billion EFRAZIG 00:23:21.319 --> 00:23:23.400 were moved back onto exchanges this week, which 00:23:23.400 --> 00:23:26.299 is a huge number. And that's typically a very 00:23:26.299 --> 00:23:29.400 strong bearish signal. Its classic analyst shorthand 00:23:29.400 --> 00:23:32.339 for sell -side preparation is underway. And the 00:23:32.339 --> 00:23:34.359 move is significant because it happened right 00:23:34.359 --> 00:23:36.839 as the price was trying to make a little technical 00:23:36.839 --> 00:23:39.900 recovery. It just squashed it. And the technicals 00:23:39.900 --> 00:23:41.960 don't look great either. No, the chart structure 00:23:41.960 --> 00:23:44.700 is overwhelmingly bearish. Shizib is trading 00:23:44.700 --> 00:23:47.220 below all the major moving averages, the 50, 00:23:47.380 --> 00:23:50.619 the 100, the 200 day. The overall trend is down. 00:23:50.839 --> 00:23:53.160 That little price bounce was just a technical 00:23:53.160 --> 00:23:55.519 reaction to being oversold, not a real reversal. 00:23:55.880 --> 00:23:58.380 So with all this new supply hitting the exchanges, 00:23:58.619 --> 00:24:01.109 what's the most likely scenario from here? The 00:24:01.109 --> 00:24:02.829 most likely scenario is just more of the same. 00:24:02.970 --> 00:24:05.990 Bearish continuation. That massive inflow suggests 00:24:05.990 --> 00:24:10.210 Ishib is going to retest support at 0 .008 or 00:24:10.210 --> 00:24:13.509 maybe even head down towards 0 .0074. And a bullish 00:24:13.509 --> 00:24:16.109 break is just low probability right now. Very 00:24:16.109 --> 00:24:18.470 low. For that to happen, you'd need to see two 00:24:18.470 --> 00:24:21.390 things. A huge wave of withdrawals from exchanges 00:24:21.390 --> 00:24:24.809 and a clear daily close above the key resistance 00:24:24.809 --> 00:24:27.309 levels. Right now, that's just not in the cards. 00:24:27.980 --> 00:24:29.680 We've talked a lot about institutional adoption 00:24:29.680 --> 00:24:32.339 in the developed world. Let's look globally now. 00:24:32.730 --> 00:24:36.910 where regulation and just pure real world necessity 00:24:36.910 --> 00:24:39.690 are driving huge adoption, especially for stable 00:24:39.690 --> 00:24:42.009 coins. Yeah. Stable coins are really starting 00:24:42.009 --> 00:24:44.230 to move beyond just being for crypto trading. 00:24:44.369 --> 00:24:45.750 They're getting integrated into the backbone 00:24:45.750 --> 00:24:49.069 of traditional finance. Visa just made a huge 00:24:49.069 --> 00:24:51.230 move this week. What did they do? They partnered 00:24:51.230 --> 00:24:53.369 with an infrastructure provider called Aquano 00:24:53.369 --> 00:24:56.890 to expand settlement using approved stable coins 00:24:56.890 --> 00:25:00.130 like USDC across the Samia region. That's Central 00:25:00.130 --> 00:25:02.309 and Eastern Europe, the Middle East. Africa. 00:25:02.470 --> 00:25:05.450 So they're just trying to cut out the slow traditional 00:25:05.450 --> 00:25:08.910 banking layers for cross -border payments. Exactly. 00:25:09.150 --> 00:25:11.569 They're using stable coins to digitize the back 00:25:11.569 --> 00:25:14.970 end of money movement. It enables 24 -7 near 00:25:14.970 --> 00:25:17.250 instant settlement. And we're seeing the same 00:25:17.250 --> 00:25:19.430 thing in Europe, where Deutsche Börse is integrating 00:25:19.430 --> 00:25:22.589 a euro pegged stable coin into its institutional 00:25:22.589 --> 00:25:25.490 custody service. But even as adoption is rising. 00:25:26.109 --> 00:25:30.109 The biggest stablecoin, Tether's USDT, got hit 00:25:30.109 --> 00:25:32.849 with a big downgrade this week from S &P Global. 00:25:33.029 --> 00:25:36.369 They did. S &P Global downgraded USDT's stability 00:25:36.369 --> 00:25:40.069 rating from constrained down to weak. Why? What 00:25:40.069 --> 00:25:43.150 was the reason? Core reason was Tether's increased 00:25:43.150 --> 00:25:46.109 exposure to volatile assets. They pointed out 00:25:46.109 --> 00:25:50.230 that Bitcoin now makes up over 5 .6 % of USDT 00:25:50.230 --> 00:25:52.410 reserves, which is higher than the buffer they 00:25:52.410 --> 00:25:54.950 had previously stated. And S &P also highlighted 00:25:54.950 --> 00:25:57.150 the same old concerns about transparency and 00:25:57.150 --> 00:25:59.589 disclosure. How did that rating affect the market, 00:25:59.650 --> 00:26:02.029 especially somewhere like China, where USDT is 00:26:02.029 --> 00:26:03.880 basically the only game in town? It triggered 00:26:03.880 --> 00:26:06.640 a really mixed reaction in China's huge underground 00:26:06.640 --> 00:26:08.980 crypto market. I mean, they rely completely on 00:26:08.980 --> 00:26:11.819 USDT for trading. So while some of the veteran 00:26:11.819 --> 00:26:14.200 traders just dismissed it as the usual Tether 00:26:14.200 --> 00:26:17.279 FUD, others expressed real panic. They're terrified 00:26:17.279 --> 00:26:20.230 of a collapse. For them, any instability in USDT 00:26:20.230 --> 00:26:22.690 is an existential threat to their access to digital 00:26:22.690 --> 00:26:24.970 assets. That reliance on stablecoins is even 00:26:24.970 --> 00:26:26.710 more intense in economies that are just being 00:26:26.710 --> 00:26:29.369 crushed by hyperinflation. Oh, absolutely. I 00:26:29.369 --> 00:26:32.009 mean, in these places, crypto isn't a speculative 00:26:32.009 --> 00:26:35.130 investment. It's a necessary tool for survival. 00:26:35.430 --> 00:26:37.769 Like in Bolivia. Take Bolivia. Yeah. They're 00:26:37.769 --> 00:26:40.769 facing over 22 percent inflation and a chronic 00:26:40.769 --> 00:26:43.470 shortage of U .S. dollars. So the government 00:26:43.470 --> 00:26:45.910 did a complete U -turn and lifted its crypto 00:26:45.910 --> 00:26:49.619 ban last year. Now banks can custody digital 00:26:49.619 --> 00:26:52.359 assets and the government even permits crypto 00:26:52.359 --> 00:26:55.079 based accounts and loans. How does that dollar 00:26:55.079 --> 00:26:57.500 shortage actually affect the average person there? 00:26:57.619 --> 00:27:00.220 It means importers can't get physical U .S. dollars 00:27:00.220 --> 00:27:02.990 to pay for essential goods. You get. Empty shelves, 00:27:03.230 --> 00:27:06.390 long lines for basic stuff. So in response, businesses 00:27:06.390 --> 00:27:09.069 just started pricing things in USDT. Really? 00:27:09.289 --> 00:27:11.930 Yeah. Big car manufacturers like Toyota and Yamaha 00:27:11.930 --> 00:27:14.109 are accepting stable coins because they literally 00:27:14.109 --> 00:27:16.349 can't get physical dollars through official channels. 00:27:16.470 --> 00:27:18.150 Stable coins are acting almost as legal tender 00:27:18.150 --> 00:27:20.329 there. And the situation is even more extreme 00:27:20.329 --> 00:27:23.130 in places like Venezuela and Argentina. Venezuela's 00:27:23.130 --> 00:27:26.630 inflation is somewhere between 170 and 270 percent. 00:27:27.670 --> 00:27:30.269 Citizens are so reliant on stable coins, they 00:27:30.269 --> 00:27:33.079 just call them Binance dollars. And in Argentina, 00:27:33.339 --> 00:27:35.799 even with the new president's austerity measures, 00:27:36.099 --> 00:27:39.640 inflation is still over 30 percent. They recorded 00:27:39.640 --> 00:27:43.099 nearly 94 billion in crypto transaction volume 00:27:43.099 --> 00:27:45.400 last year. Wow. And then Turkey shows a slightly 00:27:45.400 --> 00:27:47.259 different behavior, right? They're moving beyond 00:27:47.259 --> 00:27:49.880 just stable coins. Yeah. Turkey's inflation is 00:27:49.880 --> 00:27:52.789 at 32 percent and they have a. staggering 200 00:27:52.789 --> 00:27:55.890 billion in crypto volume. But the market there 00:27:55.890 --> 00:27:57.869 is shifting away from just holding stable coins 00:27:57.869 --> 00:28:00.829 and more towards altcoin speculation. Why is 00:28:00.829 --> 00:28:03.470 that? Economists think it's a kind of desperate 00:28:03.470 --> 00:28:06.309 yield seeking behavior. When your purchasing 00:28:06.309 --> 00:28:08.950 power is just evaporating, holding a dollar pegged 00:28:08.950 --> 00:28:11.009 asset isn't enough. People are taking on way 00:28:11.009 --> 00:28:13.869 more risk just trying to find some way anyway 00:28:13.869 --> 00:28:16.630 to keep up with inflation. OK, let's move over 00:28:16.630 --> 00:28:18.329 to Russia, where the government's attempt to 00:28:18.329 --> 00:28:21.289 regulate crypto mining is running into some problems. 00:28:21.490 --> 00:28:24.049 That's right. The problem is all the unregistered 00:28:24.049 --> 00:28:26.210 miners operating in what they call the shadows. 00:28:26.589 --> 00:28:28.970 So an adviser to the state Duma has proposed 00:28:28.970 --> 00:28:31.869 an amnesty for illegally imported mining equipment. 00:28:32.089 --> 00:28:34.509 So mining is legal there now, but people aren't 00:28:34.509 --> 00:28:37.880 complying. It was legalized in 2024. But the 00:28:37.880 --> 00:28:40.980 law requires you to register and pay taxes if 00:28:40.980 --> 00:28:43.920 you use more than 6 ,000 kilowatt hours a month, 00:28:44.059 --> 00:28:46.460 which is a pretty low threshold. And it's just 00:28:46.460 --> 00:28:48.980 been widely ignored. What's stopping them from 00:28:48.980 --> 00:28:52.220 complying if it's legal? About 60 percent of 00:28:52.220 --> 00:28:54.779 miners are still unregistered. And the core issue 00:28:54.779 --> 00:28:57.140 is the fear of asset forfeiture. They want to 00:28:57.140 --> 00:28:58.920 register, but they're afraid the government will 00:28:58.920 --> 00:29:02.200 not just fine them, but actually seize and confiscate 00:29:02.200 --> 00:29:04.200 their expensive mining rigs because they were 00:29:04.200 --> 00:29:07.000 imported illegally. And this shadow economy is 00:29:07.000 --> 00:29:09.440 causing real infrastructure problems. Absolutely. 00:29:09.819 --> 00:29:12.119 The Siberian regions, with their cheap electricity 00:29:12.119 --> 00:29:15.099 and cold weather, are perfect for mining. But 00:29:15.099 --> 00:29:17.339 now they're suffering severe power shortages 00:29:17.339 --> 00:29:19.880 because of all the unauthorized operations. So 00:29:19.880 --> 00:29:22.019 local authorities are cracking down, which just 00:29:22.019 --> 00:29:24.339 shows the conflict between wanting to tax this 00:29:24.339 --> 00:29:26.880 industry and needing to manage their strained 00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:29.940 power grid. The amnesty is the proposed solution 00:29:29.940 --> 00:29:32.200 to bring them into the legal system. On the regulatory 00:29:32.200 --> 00:29:35.579 front in the US, we got a very rare and pretty 00:29:35.579 --> 00:29:37.980 significant no action letter from the SEC this 00:29:37.980 --> 00:29:40.799 week. This was a massive victory for utility 00:29:40.799 --> 00:29:43.500 driven crypto projects. The letter was for Fuse, 00:29:43.660 --> 00:29:47.079 a Solana based deep end project focused on decentralized 00:29:47.079 --> 00:29:50.500 energy, specifically solar panels. And a no action 00:29:50.500 --> 00:29:53.279 letter basically means the SEC is saying we won't 00:29:53.279 --> 00:29:55.799 recommend enforcement action against you. It's 00:29:55.799 --> 00:29:57.779 a green light. It's a huge green light. And the 00:29:57.779 --> 00:29:59.859 core of it was successfully arguing that their 00:29:59.859 --> 00:30:02.700 token is a utility token, not a security under 00:30:02.700 --> 00:30:04.660 the Howey test. How did they manage to do that? 00:30:04.880 --> 00:30:08.079 It was a very sophisticated legal strategy. The 00:30:08.079 --> 00:30:10.440 Howey test requires an expectation of profit 00:30:10.440 --> 00:30:12.880 from the efforts of others. Few successfully 00:30:12.880 --> 00:30:15.980 showed that their tokens are primarily for consumptive 00:30:15.980 --> 00:30:18.680 use. So for rebates and discounts on your energy 00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:21.779 bill. Exactly. The argument is that. People are 00:30:21.779 --> 00:30:24.700 buying the token to use it to get cheaper energy, 00:30:24.900 --> 00:30:28.039 not to speculate on the success of the management 00:30:28.039 --> 00:30:31.640 team. That functional utility is what separates 00:30:31.640 --> 00:30:34.079 it from being a speculative security. And this 00:30:34.079 --> 00:30:37.200 is a big regulatory shift with support from Commissioner 00:30:37.200 --> 00:30:39.960 Hester Peirce. It is. This is the second Deppin 00:30:39.960 --> 00:30:42.960 project to get a letter like this. It really 00:30:42.960 --> 00:30:45.559 reinforces the view that the SEC is willing to 00:30:45.559 --> 00:30:48.980 embrace Deppin as a, quote, novel way of organizing 00:30:48.980 --> 00:30:57.900 human behavior and capital. So we've established 00:30:57.900 --> 00:30:59.460 the market is getting more professional, more 00:30:59.460 --> 00:31:01.559 institutional, and the stakes are much higher. 00:31:01.900 --> 00:31:03.819 Which brings us to a whole new sector that's 00:31:03.819 --> 00:31:06.460 focused on information asymmetry. Yeah, the launch 00:31:06.460 --> 00:31:08.380 of the Layer 1 Monad this week was a perfect 00:31:08.380 --> 00:31:10.900 example of why real -time on -chain information 00:31:10.900 --> 00:31:13.500 is so critical now. A lot of people got burned 00:31:13.500 --> 00:31:16.119 on this one. They did. Monad launched with this 00:31:16.119 --> 00:31:20.539 massive $3 billion valuation, and the price surged 00:31:20.539 --> 00:31:23.920 80 % almost instantly. And it shocked a lot of 00:31:23.920 --> 00:31:26.279 retail traders who were betting against that 00:31:26.279 --> 00:31:28.859 high valuation. What was the key piece of information 00:31:28.859 --> 00:31:31.549 they were missing? They didn't have immediate 00:31:31.549 --> 00:31:34.190 access to the circulation data. The key was that 00:31:34.190 --> 00:31:36.869 only 10 percent of the total token supply was 00:31:36.869 --> 00:31:38.869 actually available in circulation at launch. 00:31:39.049 --> 00:31:41.369 So there was extreme scarcity. Extreme scarcity. 00:31:41.509 --> 00:31:44.069 The advanced traders who were using real time 00:31:44.069 --> 00:31:47.349 on chain standards saw that low circulating supply 00:31:47.349 --> 00:31:50.390 and they anticipated the squeeze. They were able 00:31:50.390 --> 00:31:52.710 to front run the retail market that was betting 00:31:52.710 --> 00:31:55.349 the other way. So the difference between winning 00:31:55.349 --> 00:31:57.789 and losing was just knowing the true circulating 00:31:57.789 --> 00:31:59.819 supply at the exact right time. right moment. 00:32:00.000 --> 00:32:02.500 Exactly. And that reality has just fueled the 00:32:02.500 --> 00:32:05.240 rise of all these new AI powered tools. This 00:32:05.240 --> 00:32:07.279 is the new technological arms race, isn't it? 00:32:07.339 --> 00:32:10.619 AI tools monitoring on -chain data to try and 00:32:10.619 --> 00:32:12.960 fix this information gap. It is. We're seeing 00:32:12.960 --> 00:32:15.420 whole projects dedicated just to this, offering 00:32:15.420 --> 00:32:18.480 AI agents that monitor everything. price, liquidity, 00:32:18.819 --> 00:32:21.440 supply movements, whale transactions to give 00:32:21.440 --> 00:32:23.960 users that critical information faster than anyone 00:32:23.960 --> 00:32:26.440 else. We're also seeing a new vision for Bitcoin 00:32:26.440 --> 00:32:28.839 that tries to address its biggest structural 00:32:28.839 --> 00:32:32.200 weakness. The fact that it's too slow to be a 00:32:32.200 --> 00:32:34.799 currency. This is the idea behind Bitcoin Hyper. 00:32:35.019 --> 00:32:37.720 The classic critique is that Bitcoin's base layer 00:32:37.720 --> 00:32:40.259 is just too slow and expensive for lots of small 00:32:40.259 --> 00:32:43.400 transactions. So Bitcoin Hyper is trying to solve 00:32:43.400 --> 00:32:46.440 that by creating a Solana -grade execution layer 00:32:46.440 --> 00:32:49.539 specifically for wrapped BTC. So how does that 00:32:49.539 --> 00:32:52.319 work without breaking Bitcoin's core security? 00:32:52.700 --> 00:32:54.660 It's a layered system. You lock up your real 00:32:54.660 --> 00:32:57.640 BTC on the secure Bitcoin base chain, and then 00:32:57.640 --> 00:32:59.779 it mints a wrapped version that can move super 00:32:59.779 --> 00:33:02.380 cheap and super fast in this high velocity dApp 00:33:02.380 --> 00:33:04.259 environment. But the final settlement is still 00:33:04.259 --> 00:33:06.720 anchored back to the main Bitcoin chain. Exactly. 00:33:06.980 --> 00:33:09.809 It's anchored to the secure base layer. And the 00:33:09.809 --> 00:33:12.849 native token, HYPER, is what you need for gas, 00:33:12.869 --> 00:33:15.410 for staking and for governance on this execution 00:33:15.410 --> 00:33:17.990 layer. The argument is that this turns Bitcoin 00:33:17.990 --> 00:33:21.509 from just being static collateral into active 00:33:21.509 --> 00:33:23.990 transactional capital. All right. Finally, let's 00:33:23.990 --> 00:33:26.269 look at a fascinating little niche shift that's 00:33:26.269 --> 00:33:29.390 being driven by regulation. The sudden exodus 00:33:29.390 --> 00:33:32.009 of crypto traders from offshore gambling sites. 00:33:32.230 --> 00:33:35.309 Yeah, the Wild West era of offshore crypto casinos 00:33:35.309 --> 00:33:38.049 is coming to a very abrupt end. And it's because 00:33:38.049 --> 00:33:41.089 of two things, predatory compliance and enhanced 00:33:41.089 --> 00:33:43.410 enforcement. So the operators lure you in with 00:33:43.410 --> 00:33:45.630 promises of no KYC. They do. They'll let you 00:33:45.630 --> 00:33:47.490 deposit as much as you want with no questions 00:33:47.490 --> 00:33:49.430 asked. But then the trap springs when you try 00:33:49.430 --> 00:33:52.079 to withdraw. Precisely. The user tries to make 00:33:52.079 --> 00:33:54.279 a six -figure withdrawal and suddenly the operator 00:33:54.279 --> 00:33:56.759 freezes the funds and demands a U .S. ID for 00:33:56.759 --> 00:33:59.400 verification. When you provide it, they ban you 00:33:59.400 --> 00:34:01.539 for violating their terms of service about U 00:34:01.539 --> 00:34:03.599 .S. residents and they just confiscate your funds. 00:34:03.700 --> 00:34:05.740 It's a bait and switch. An aggressive one. And 00:34:05.740 --> 00:34:08.380 it's become standard practice. And on top of 00:34:08.380 --> 00:34:10.900 that, U .S. exchanges are now proactively stopping 00:34:10.900 --> 00:34:13.920 funds from even reaching these sites. Exchanges 00:34:13.920 --> 00:34:16.099 like Coinbase are using advanced chain analysis 00:34:16.099 --> 00:34:19.420 tools. If they detect a transfer to or from a 00:34:19.420 --> 00:34:21.440 known gambling wallet, they just shut down your 00:34:21.440 --> 00:34:23.940 account immediately. So it's become a survival 00:34:23.940 --> 00:34:26.579 strategy for US crypto users to avoid these sites 00:34:26.579 --> 00:34:29.219 completely. So compliant platforms like these 00:34:29.219 --> 00:34:32.239 sweepstakes models are emerging as the only real 00:34:32.239 --> 00:34:34.900 alternative. Yeah, they are. And the legal genius 00:34:34.900 --> 00:34:37.219 is that they use a mechanism that removes the 00:34:37.219 --> 00:34:39.960 element of consideration. Why is that distinction 00:34:39.960 --> 00:34:42.639 so important? Because U .S. lottery law says 00:34:42.639 --> 00:34:44.599 you need three things for it to be a legal gambling. 00:34:45.420 --> 00:34:48.719 A prize, chance, and consideration, which is 00:34:48.719 --> 00:34:51.639 money exchanged for the chance to win. These 00:34:51.639 --> 00:34:54.139 sweepstakes platforms use a dual currency system. 00:34:54.239 --> 00:34:56.659 You buy gold coins for entertainment, which have 00:34:56.659 --> 00:34:59.179 no value, but you get sweeps coins as a free 00:34:59.179 --> 00:35:01.840 bonus. And because the valuable sweeps coins 00:35:01.840 --> 00:35:05.000 are given away for free, it legally removes that 00:35:05.000 --> 00:35:07.079 element of consideration. Which makes the whole 00:35:07.079 --> 00:35:09.780 system compliant with U .S. law. Exactly. And 00:35:09.780 --> 00:35:12.199 it allows for instant crypto redemptions, usually 00:35:12.199 --> 00:35:14.940 USDC, straight back to a whitelisted exchange 00:35:14.940 --> 00:35:17.139 wallet without any fear of your account being 00:35:17.139 --> 00:35:20.000 closed or your funds being confiscated. You know, 00:35:20.000 --> 00:35:22.519 if we look at the week as a whole, the market 00:35:22.519 --> 00:35:25.119 volatility was definitely heavy. But that underlying 00:35:25.119 --> 00:35:27.639 narrative of professionalization, of maturation, 00:35:27.960 --> 00:35:30.739 it just remains constant. We saw major institutions 00:35:30.739 --> 00:35:33.460 really solidifying their Bitcoin positions. We 00:35:33.460 --> 00:35:36.300 saw altcoin ETFs finding these specific utility 00:35:36.300 --> 00:35:39.300 driven footholds with XRP. showing that strong 00:35:39.300 --> 00:35:41.539 conviction. While Dogecoin just struggles. While 00:35:41.539 --> 00:35:43.780 Dogecoin struggles, exactly. And the regulatory 00:35:43.780 --> 00:35:46.199 frameworks are evolving so fast now to embrace 00:35:46.199 --> 00:35:48.539 actual utility in the deep end sector and for 00:35:48.539 --> 00:35:50.840 stable coins all over the world. This week was 00:35:50.840 --> 00:35:52.699 really defined by this growing chasm between 00:35:52.699 --> 00:35:54.820 the speculative meme coins that just rely on 00:35:54.820 --> 00:35:57.199 hype and the utility -driven assets that are 00:35:57.199 --> 00:35:59.420 getting real, measurable, institutional, and 00:35:59.420 --> 00:36:01.920 regulatory support. For you, the difference between 00:36:01.920 --> 00:36:04.260 winning and losing now is so often tied directly 00:36:04.260 --> 00:36:06.199 to getting the right on -chain information and 00:36:06.199 --> 00:36:07.860 understanding where the regulated... capital 00:36:07.860 --> 00:36:09.920 was actually flowing. So what does this all mean 00:36:09.920 --> 00:36:12.340 for you? If U .S. state governments are buying 00:36:12.340 --> 00:36:14.920 Bitcoin ETFs and globally compliant stablecoins 00:36:14.920 --> 00:36:17.440 are enabling regulated finance in major hubs 00:36:17.440 --> 00:36:19.719 like Abu Dhabi while also acting as legal tender 00:36:19.719 --> 00:36:22.659 in developing nations, how long until the distinction 00:36:22.659 --> 00:36:24.760 between traditional finance and crypto finance 00:36:24.760 --> 00:36:26.139 just dissolves entirely?