WEBVTT

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Welcome back to Football Army, your essential

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guide for navigating really just the absolute

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chaos of the NFL and NCAA season. There's the

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perfect word for it. We are officially in that

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late November stretch where everything just feels

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bigger. The stakes are massive. Every single

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snap feels like it could decide a team's entire

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season. That's absolutely right. You know, if

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September is about figuring out who you are,

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late November is about trying to survive with

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that identity. And nothing, I mean nothing. kicks

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off this high stakes period like Thanksgiving

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Day football. It's the best tradition. Yeah.

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And we've got a huge slate of games that could

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really shake up the playoff picture in both conferences.

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So here's our mission for you today. We're going

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to break down that entire three game Thanksgiving

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triple header. We'll get into the history, the

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key stats and. Yeah, our predictions. And after

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that, we're diving into the big league -wide

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stories, the total turmoil in the NFC East, the

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coaching hop seats that are getting warmer by

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the minute, and the, well, the really polarizing

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rise of some of these rookie quarterbacks. Then

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we're shifting to college for rivalry week. We

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have maybe the biggest. the game Ohio State versus

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Michigan that we've seen in years. Oh, it's huge.

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And we'll also track the coaching carousel. You've

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got Jim Mora on the move and, of course, the

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constant speculation around Lane Kiffin. And

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finally, we'll give you those essential fantasy

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football insights you need. That final push for

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the playoffs is here, and every lineup decision

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counts. All right, let's get into it, starting

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with the tradition itself. Thanksgiving. Yeah.

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And you can't talk about Thanksgiving football

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without first talking about the man who basically

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was the voice of the holiday for so many of us.

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The late, great John Madden. Exactly. For me,

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growing up, the sounds of Thanksgiving were,

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you know, the parade on TV, family in the kitchen,

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and John Madden's voice over the game. It's so

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true. He just made it feel like more than a game.

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And the NFL is doing a really wonderful tribute

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this year, making sure that Legacy is front and

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center on all three broadcasts, Fox, CBS, and

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NBC. Which is great to see. Yeah, and the details

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are really thoughtful. First off, every player

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on all six teams will wear a special Madden patch

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on their jersey. But the part I love, the part

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that's just so Madden, is the coin toss. The

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turducken coin. The turducken coin. On the head

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side, you've got a silhouette of Coach Madden.

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And on the tail side... A six -legged turducken,

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you know, honoring his favorite holiday dish.

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It's just perfectly absurd, isn't it? Only Madden

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could inspire that. Right. But it's not all fun

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and games. It's also about the future. They're

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giving out a Madden Thanksgiving MVP award after

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each game. And the winner gets more than just

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a trophy. Exactly. The NFL Foundation makes a

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$10 ,000 donation in that player's name. to a

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youth football program. It's just a perfect way

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to tie his legacy to the next generation of players.

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Love that. Okay, let's get into the action. First

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up, the NSC North Clash, Green Bay Packers at

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the Detroit Lions, 1 o 'clock Eastern. This game

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is just steeped in history. It's the 23rd time

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these two have met on Thanksgiving. That's an

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NFL record. And the Lions actually have the edge

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on Turkey Day, right? They're 12 -9 -1. They

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do. And look, motivation is everything for Detroit

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here. They got crushed by the Packers 27 -13

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way back in week one at Lambeau. That loss has

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been sitting with them all year. You have to

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think they've had this one circled. Oh, for sure.

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Aidan Hutchinson basically said as much. He called

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this, and I'm quoting, as big as any game will

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play in the regular season, this is their chance

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to make a statement on a national stage. So the

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key to this game, it feels like it comes down

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to one thing for Detroit, and that's protecting

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Jared Goff. That is the entire ballgame. Look,

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Green Bay's defense, they've been quietly really

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good at getting after the quarterback. They generate

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pressure on 35 % of snaps. That's the sixth highest

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rate in the whole league. Now, here's the killer

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stat for Detroit. When Jared Goff faces pressure

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this season, his QBR, his total quarterback rating,

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drops by an incredible 69 points. 69 points.

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I mean, that's not just a drop. That's falling

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off a cliff. It's the biggest drop in the NFL.

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And it tells you everything you need to know.

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Goff is a great quarterback when he's clean,

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when he can throw on time. But when you force

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him off his spot, when that interior pressure

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gets there, his mechanics break down and he becomes

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a completely different player. And that's exactly

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what the Packers defense is designed to do. Right.

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They'll try to create that chaos up the middle

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and force him into mistakes. If Green Bay hits

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that 35 percent pressure rate, it could completely

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stall out Detroit's offense. But on the flip

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side, the Lions have. An absolute weapon who

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doesn't need a clean pocket to do damage. Jameer

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Gibbs. He has been just electric. He just won

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his second NFC Offensive Player of the Week award

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in three weeks. His game against the Giants was

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insane. 219 scrimmage yards, three touchdowns.

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He's averaging, what, like 194 yards over his

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last three. It's unbelievable production. And

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he's on the verge of making some serious history.

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Right. The touchdown milestone. Yep. With just

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one more touchdown of any kind, rushing, receiving,

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whatever, he becomes only the fifth player in

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NFL history to get 45 total touchdowns in his

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first three seasons. And the other four guys

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on that list are? Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson,

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Gale Sayers, and Earl Campbell. So just a few

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Hall of Famers. No big deal. Just, you know,

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the Mount Rushmore of running backs. That's the

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kind of air he's breathing right now. So what

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are the predictions looking like? The line is

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pretty tight. It is. Detroit is favored by just

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two and a half points. Most analysts, like Maldonado

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and Moody, are picking the lines to win and cover.

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Scores like 34 -24, 30 -27. The FPI gives them

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a slight edge, about 54%. But not everyone agrees.

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Nope. Walder has the Packers pulling off the

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upset, 23 -17. And you do have to factor in the

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coaching. Rex Ryan has been all over Dan Campbell's

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clock management this year. Yeah, that's a legitimate

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concern. In a tight divisional game, one bad

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decision late in the fourth quarter could be

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the difference. Campbell can't afford one of

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those aggressive gambles that don't pay off.

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And Packers fans have seen this movie before,

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just last year. They came in as huge underdogs

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and spoiled the Lions Thanksgiving. They did.

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An 8 .5 point dog won 29 -22. And that win really

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kickstarted their whole playoff run. They need

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that same kind of gritty defensive performance

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on Thursday. All right, let's move to the afternoon

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game. The 4 .30 Eastern kickoff, Kansas City

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Chiefs at the Dallas Cowboys. A classic matchup.

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And for the Chiefs, this is all about building

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on that last win. That wild comeback against

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the Colts. They were down 11 in the fourth and

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pull it out in overtime. Right. And Patrick Mahomes

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said it himself this week. They need to build

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off that momentum. But that win was more than

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just a W. It was like a psychological hurdle

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they finally cleared. The one score game narrative.

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Exactly. Before that game, they were zero and

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five in one score games this season, which is

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just bizarre when you remember that last year

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on their way to the Super Bowl, they won a record

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12 and 0 in those same situations. So getting

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that win, it kind of proves they still have that

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clutch gene in them, even if it's been heightened

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all year. It shows it's still there. No, for

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the Cowboys, their path to victory is crystal

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clear. It's all about play action. Right. Establish

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the run, then hit them over the top. 100%. Dak

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Prescott has the best QBR in the entire league

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on play action passes this year. He's tied for

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the league lead with 13 touchdowns off of play

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action. And that's a huge problem for the Chiefs

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defense, isn't it? It's their biggest vulnerability.

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Kansas City's defense allows an 82 % completion

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rate on play action. They're giving up almost

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10 yards per attempt. That's third worst in the

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NFL. So if Dallas can get their ground game going

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early. It opens up everything. The Chiefs will

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have to bring a safety down into the box, and

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that's when Prescott can take his shots downfield.

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It's a massive tactical mismatch if Dallas can

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exploit it. Good news for them on the personnel

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front, too. George Pickens and Kavante Turpin

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are both good to go. No injury designation. Yep.

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And, you know, stepping away from the X's and

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O's for a second, a really great story out of

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Dallas this week. The Dak Prescott initiative.

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Yeah. It came out that his charity initiative

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for cancer screening actually led to a Cowboys

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executive getting diagnosed early with stage

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two cancer. And it basically saved his life.

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It's just a great reminder of the impact these

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guys can have off the field. Absolutely incredible

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story. OK, back to the game. The predictions

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here seem pretty one sided. Yeah, the consensus

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is heavily on the Chiefs. Maldonado, Moody, Walder,

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they all have Casey winning. The FBI is really

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bullish, too, gives them a 63 .6 percent chance

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to win by about five points. But there's a trend

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we need to talk about. The betting trends. Yeah,

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they tell a different story. The Cowboys have

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been fantastic as underdogs this year. They're

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4 -1 against the spread. Meaning they play better

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than people expect. Exactly. And the Chiefs,

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on the other hand, are just 1 -4 against the

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spread on the road. So while everyone expects

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a Chiefs win, the numbers suggest this game could

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be much, much closer than people think. If the

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Chiefs need some Thanksgiving road magic to look

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back on, they've got it. Oh yeah. You go back

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to 1996, Marcus Allen. He passed Walter Payton

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for the all -time rushing touchdown record with

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his 111th score against the Lions, helping KC

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rally for a huge comeback win. That's the kind

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of grit they'll need in Dallas. And finally,

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the nightcap. The 820 kickoff. An AFC North grudge

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match. Cincinnati Bengals at the Baltimore Ravens.

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And the entire story here is the return of one

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man. Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is back after missing

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nine games with that turf toe injury. And look,

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the Bengals' playoff hopes are on life support.

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ESPN gives them like a 1 % chance. 1%. But that

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doesn't matter to Burrow. He came out and said,

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I'm not going to live my life and play this game

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scared of something happening. If he's healthy

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enough to play, he's playing. Which is classic

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Burrow. But we have to ask, what does a healthy

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enough Joe Burrow look like? That turf toe injury

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is no joke for a quarterback's mobility. That's

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the huge question. It limits your ability to

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push off, to extend plays. Does this turn the

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Bengals into a purely short -passing, timing

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-based offense? Because if it does, that plays

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right into the hands of a Ravens defense built

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to get pressure up the middle. And this isn't

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just any game. This is a bitter rivalry. Oh,

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yeah. Burr said he always dreamed of playing

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on Thanksgiving, but the reality is just pure

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AFC North hate. He said, you don't like them.

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It's a division rivalry. And the Bengals are

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trying to snap a four -game losing streak to

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Baltimore. On the Ravens' side, Lamar Jackson

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is practicing in full, which is good news. But

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his recent play has been a little concerning.

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It has. Zero touchdowns and two turnovers in

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his last two starts. The defense is holding up

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their end, but the offense has been sputtering.

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You have to wonder if all those nagging injuries,

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the toe, the ankle, are preventing him from being

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the Lamar we're used to seeing. So the predictions

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are kind of reflecting that offensive uncertainty,

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right? They are. The Ravens are favored by a

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touchdown, seven points. But both Dajani and

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Dubin are picking the Bengals to cover that spread.

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They're predicting really close games like 23

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-21, 24 -20 Ravens. The thinking being that Baltimore's

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offense just isn't explosive enough to blow them

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out. Exactly. Their offense is ranked 21st in

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the league. They're not built for blowouts. And

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Burrow, even at 80 or 90 percent, is good enough

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to keep the Bengals in this game and make it

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a classic down -to -the -wire divisional fight.

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All right. That sets the stage for a massive

00:11:27.139 --> 00:11:29.759
Thanksgiving. But the news cycle, as we know,

00:11:29.940 --> 00:11:32.679
never sleeps. Let's get into some of the bigger

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headlines shaking up the league. And we have

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to start in the NFC East with the spectacular

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collapse happening in Philadelphia. It's a meltdown.

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Blowing a 21 -point lead to the Cowboys. It wasn't

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just a loss. That felt like it exposed something

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rotten at the core. It did. And the stats are

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just damning. I mean, they have the worst third

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and out rate in the league since the 2014 Raiders.

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The 2014 Raiders. That's a five -alarm fire.

00:11:59.879 --> 00:12:03.940
It's a total structural failure on offense. And

00:12:03.940 --> 00:12:06.019
when you can't stay on the field, it just puts

00:12:06.019 --> 00:12:08.320
immense pressure on your defense. It kills your

00:12:08.320 --> 00:12:11.159
field position. It's a recipe for losing. Their

00:12:11.159 --> 00:12:14.000
overall success rate is down to 40%. That's 25th

00:12:14.000 --> 00:12:15.600
in the league. And you're starting to see the

00:12:15.600 --> 00:12:18.340
cracks show in the locker room. Former Eagles

00:12:18.340 --> 00:12:20.700
QB Rodney Peete called out A .J. Brown's body

00:12:20.700 --> 00:12:22.820
language and public frustration. Yeah, and that

00:12:22.820 --> 00:12:24.539
stuff matters. When your number one receiver

00:12:24.539 --> 00:12:27.159
is openly unhappy, it absolutely affects the

00:12:27.159 --> 00:12:29.240
quarterback. It undermines Jalen Hurts' leadership

00:12:29.240 --> 00:12:30.799
at a time when he's already facing questions

00:12:30.799 --> 00:12:33.059
about his own play. And the running game isn't

00:12:33.059 --> 00:12:35.419
helping him out at all. Sequon Barkley, I mean,

00:12:35.419 --> 00:12:38.019
the explosiveness just isn't there. It's gone.

00:12:38.179 --> 00:12:41.240
Ten carries in that loss. And the big stat is

00:12:41.240 --> 00:12:44.399
he has only two rushes of over 20 yards all season.

00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:48.220
Two. After having 17 last year. Right. He's not

00:12:48.220 --> 00:12:50.740
creating those chunk plays that the offense desperately

00:12:50.740 --> 00:12:53.340
needs. Which is why you're hearing some analysts

00:12:53.340 --> 00:12:55.600
suggest maybe they should give Tank Bigsby more

00:12:55.600 --> 00:12:58.240
run. Just to see if some fresh legs can provide

00:12:58.240 --> 00:13:01.159
a spark. Meanwhile in Dallas, it's a completely

00:13:01.159 --> 00:13:04.440
different story. Well, kind of. You've got C

00:13:04.440 --> 00:13:06.899
.D. Lamb taking ownership of his drops. Yeah,

00:13:06.960 --> 00:13:08.840
I loved his quote. He said, I need to catch the

00:13:08.840 --> 00:13:11.940
effing ball. He's being solution oriented, which

00:13:11.940 --> 00:13:14.000
is what you want to see. But his struggles are

00:13:14.000 --> 00:13:17.639
happening at the exact moment. George Pickens

00:13:17.639 --> 00:13:19.919
is turning into an absolute superstar. He's been

00:13:19.919 --> 00:13:22.000
phenomenal. He's second in the NFL in receiving

00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:23.960
yards with over a thousand eight touchdowns.

00:13:23.960 --> 00:13:26.399
He is absolutely overshadowing Lamb right now.

00:13:26.730 --> 00:13:28.629
Which creates a really tricky contract situation

00:13:28.629 --> 00:13:30.769
for the Cowboys, doesn't it? It's a massive strategic

00:13:30.769 --> 00:13:33.190
puzzle for them. They want to extend him, but

00:13:33.190 --> 00:13:37.669
they also have to pay Dak, Micah Parsons, and

00:13:37.669 --> 00:13:40.110
Lam. There's only so much money to go around.

00:13:40.350 --> 00:13:42.210
So this is where the franchise take comes in.

00:13:42.509 --> 00:13:44.610
This is exactly why the franchise tag exists.

00:13:44.809 --> 00:13:48.490
In 2026, they can tag him for one year, probably

00:13:48.490 --> 00:13:51.929
for around $28 million. And that buys them time.

00:13:52.090 --> 00:13:54.289
It buys them time and flexibility. They get to

00:13:54.289 --> 00:13:56.509
keep their star receiver for a year while they

00:13:56.509 --> 00:13:59.090
sort out the other massive contracts. Pickens

00:13:59.090 --> 00:14:01.769
Camp wants a huge deal now, but the Cowboys might

00:14:01.769 --> 00:14:03.750
want to see one more year of this production

00:14:03.750 --> 00:14:06.330
and, frankly, this maturity before they commit

00:14:06.330 --> 00:14:08.970
that kind of long -term cash. Okay, let's shift

00:14:08.970 --> 00:14:13.799
gears to a rookie QB. who is just a lightning

00:14:13.799 --> 00:14:16.220
rod for conversation right now. Shedder Sanders

00:14:16.220 --> 00:14:18.820
in Cleveland. Yeah, he wins his first start,

00:14:18.860 --> 00:14:20.799
first Browns QB to do that in three decades.

00:14:21.179 --> 00:14:23.460
He's now the starter moving forward, even with

00:14:23.460 --> 00:14:25.799
Dylan Gabriel clearing protocol. But the football

00:14:25.799 --> 00:14:28.799
story is almost secondary to the cultural story

00:14:28.799 --> 00:14:31.519
around him. He's trying to downplay it, saying

00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:34.100
he's just trying to do his job. But others are

00:14:34.100 --> 00:14:36.480
not. Not at all. You have guys like Sean Merriman

00:14:36.480 --> 00:14:38.679
defending his confidence, saying that little

00:14:38.679 --> 00:14:41.240
bit of cockiness is exactly what a locker room

00:14:41.240 --> 00:14:44.080
needs. It gives them an edge, a belief they can

00:14:44.080 --> 00:14:47.259
win. And then the conversation goes to a whole

00:14:47.259 --> 00:14:49.879
other level. And we have to be clear here. We're

00:14:49.879 --> 00:14:52.259
just reporting what's being said by prominent

00:14:52.259 --> 00:14:55.320
analysts. Right. Impartially. You have someone

00:14:55.320 --> 00:14:57.600
like Emmanuel Ocho claiming the NFL colluded

00:14:57.600 --> 00:14:59.139
to push Sanders out of the first round. He's

00:14:59.139 --> 00:15:02.259
even called him the public sports face of oppression.

00:15:02.639 --> 00:15:05.080
Which is an incredibly heavy label. It's immense.

00:15:05.740 --> 00:15:09.000
Ocho's argument is that the media and scouts

00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:11.980
scrutinize Sanders' confidence, his jewelry,

00:15:12.200 --> 00:15:14.960
his flash. In a way, they would never scrutinize

00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:17.539
a white quarterback. He believes it's a clear

00:15:17.539 --> 00:15:20.279
example of systemic bias in the evaluation process.

00:15:20.659 --> 00:15:22.960
And you have Kendrick Perkins comparing him to

00:15:22.960 --> 00:15:25.360
Barack Obama. Calling him the most powerful black

00:15:25.360 --> 00:15:29.379
man in sports. It's a massive amount of pressure

00:15:29.379 --> 00:15:31.600
and expectation to put on a rookie after one

00:15:31.600 --> 00:15:33.860
single start. He has become this symbol, and

00:15:33.860 --> 00:15:35.840
now he has to go out and prove on the field that

00:15:35.840 --> 00:15:37.960
he can sustain this level of play week after

00:15:37.960 --> 00:15:41.100
week. From a rookie on the rise to coaches who

00:15:41.100 --> 00:15:43.779
might be on their way out. The Hanseats are scorching

00:15:43.779 --> 00:15:46.039
right now. And nowhere more than in Las Vegas.

00:15:46.379 --> 00:15:49.019
The Raiders are in a free fall. Pete Carroll

00:15:49.019 --> 00:15:52.019
is facing real one and done talk. Firing three

00:15:52.019 --> 00:15:54.080
assistants in three weeks, including Chip Kelly.

00:15:55.149 --> 00:15:57.490
That feels like a desperate move. It is a desperate

00:15:57.490 --> 00:15:58.990
move. And what makes it more interesting is the

00:15:58.990 --> 00:16:01.830
Tom Brady angle. Reports are saying Brady was

00:16:01.830 --> 00:16:04.090
a huge advocate for bringing Kelly in. And now

00:16:04.090 --> 00:16:06.990
he's deeply disappointed with the whole team's

00:16:06.990 --> 00:16:08.870
performance, not just the offense. Having your

00:16:08.870 --> 00:16:11.769
new minority owner who happens to be the GO disappointed

00:16:11.769 --> 00:16:15.620
in you. That can't be a good feeling for Carroll.

00:16:15.779 --> 00:16:18.600
No, it is not. The pressure is on. He has to

00:16:18.600 --> 00:16:21.620
show some sign of life in these final six games,

00:16:21.759 --> 00:16:24.840
or that one -and -done buzz could become a reality.

00:16:25.159 --> 00:16:27.559
Who else is feeling the heat? ESPN is keeping

00:16:27.559 --> 00:16:31.179
a close eye on Cincinnati and Atlanta. Zach Taylor

00:16:31.179 --> 00:16:34.840
in Cincinnati. Yeah, Burrow got hurt, but they're

00:16:34.840 --> 00:16:36.600
about to miss the playoffs for a third straight

00:16:36.600 --> 00:16:39.039
year after making back -to -back AFC title games.

00:16:39.159 --> 00:16:41.299
That's a big step backward. And Mike McDaniel

00:16:41.299 --> 00:16:43.399
in Miami. He's an interesting case. The team

00:16:43.399 --> 00:16:45.460
started 1 -6, so they've won three of their last

00:16:45.460 --> 00:16:48.080
four. The owner seems to believe in him. He's

00:16:48.080 --> 00:16:49.879
got a soft schedule coming up, so he has a real

00:16:49.879 --> 00:16:51.799
chance to coach his way off the hot seat. And

00:16:51.799 --> 00:16:54.620
quickly, a roster note out of Washington. It

00:16:54.620 --> 00:16:56.000
sounds like they're preparing to move on from

00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:58.950
a legend. Yeah, Bobby Wagner. He's 35, and while

00:16:58.950 --> 00:17:01.029
he's been a great leader, his age is starting

00:17:01.029 --> 00:17:03.549
to show, especially in pass coverage. They're

00:17:03.549 --> 00:17:05.650
expected to reduce his snaps after the bye week

00:17:05.650 --> 00:17:07.769
and get some of their younger linebackers, like

00:17:07.769 --> 00:17:09.809
Jordan McGee, more playing time to build for

00:17:09.809 --> 00:17:13.069
the future. A tough but necessary move. All right,

00:17:13.069 --> 00:17:15.210
let's hit the transaction wire. The Buffalo Bills

00:17:15.210 --> 00:17:18.329
made a big shakeup this week. A huge one. They're

00:17:18.329 --> 00:17:21.329
clearly all in on this season. They cut receiver

00:17:21.329 --> 00:17:24.160
Elijah Moore. an acquisition that just did not

00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:26.920
work out at all. Nine catches in nine games.

00:17:27.039 --> 00:17:29.099
Yeah, that's not getting it done. Not even close.

00:17:29.200 --> 00:17:31.559
So to fill that void, they went out and signed

00:17:31.559 --> 00:17:34.539
a proven veteran, Brandon Cooks. He asked for

00:17:34.539 --> 00:17:36.539
his release from the Saints and got it. Yep.

00:17:36.599 --> 00:17:40.759
And even at 32, Cooks is a massive upgrade. He's

00:17:40.759 --> 00:17:43.319
a reliable route runner with six 1 ,000 -yard

00:17:43.319 --> 00:17:45.819
seasons under his belt. He gives them a legitimate

00:17:45.819 --> 00:17:47.779
deep threat on the perimeter that they have been

00:17:47.779 --> 00:17:50.359
desperately missing. So he joins a room with

00:17:50.359 --> 00:17:53.049
Khalil Shakir. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel.

00:17:53.309 --> 00:17:55.630
That looks a lot better on paper. A lot better?

00:17:55.849 --> 00:17:58.089
If he can build a quick rapport with his quarterback,

00:17:58.430 --> 00:18:00.970
he could really change the ceiling of that entire

00:18:00.970 --> 00:18:04.170
offense for the December push. Now, over to New

00:18:04.170 --> 00:18:06.490
England, where they are facing a crisis on the

00:18:06.490 --> 00:18:09.250
offensive line. A major crisis. Their rookie

00:18:09.250 --> 00:18:11.509
left tackle, Will Campbell, is on injured reserve.

00:18:11.829 --> 00:18:14.130
He's out for at least four games. Losing your

00:18:14.130 --> 00:18:17.329
blindside protector is just a nightmare scenario.

00:18:17.609 --> 00:18:19.650
And it sounds like Mike Frabel doesn't have an

00:18:19.650 --> 00:18:22.819
easy answer. He was very noncommittal. The options

00:18:22.819 --> 00:18:25.079
are a Vidarian Lowe, who was inconsistent last

00:18:25.079 --> 00:18:28.160
year, or a rookie, Marcus Bryant, who has mostly

00:18:28.160 --> 00:18:30.500
played right tackle. Neither is a great solution.

00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:33.940
And yet, despite all that chaos, the Patriots

00:18:33.940 --> 00:18:37.299
are still a 7 .5 -point favorite over the Giants

00:18:37.299 --> 00:18:39.500
this week. It's incredible, isn't it? It just

00:18:39.500 --> 00:18:41.019
tells you everything you need to know about the

00:18:41.019 --> 00:18:43.599
current state of the New York Giants. Vegas thinks

00:18:43.599 --> 00:18:46.720
their problems are way, way worse than the Patriots'

00:18:46.799 --> 00:18:49.119
offensive line disaster. A few other quick injury

00:18:49.119 --> 00:18:52.140
updates. Drake London is doubtful for the Falcons.

00:18:52.400 --> 00:18:54.799
Yeah, and that's a big deal. When he's out, Kirk

00:18:54.799 --> 00:18:57.099
Cousins has to spread the ball around to, like,

00:18:57.119 --> 00:18:59.599
seven different guys, and none of them are a

00:18:59.599 --> 00:19:02.119
true number one. It really limits their passing

00:19:02.119 --> 00:19:04.680
game. The Chiefs will be shorthanded on Thanksgiving,

00:19:04.819 --> 00:19:07.700
too. Redguard Smith is out. Yep, that's a loss

00:19:07.700 --> 00:19:09.579
on the interior that could make it harder for

00:19:09.579 --> 00:19:11.619
them to establish that run game we talked about.

00:19:12.059 --> 00:19:14.740
Good news for the Broncos, though. They locked

00:19:14.740 --> 00:19:17.259
up defensive tackle Malcolm Roach with a three

00:19:17.259 --> 00:19:20.059
-year extension. Smart move, building from the

00:19:20.059 --> 00:19:23.000
inside out on defense. And finally, down in the

00:19:23.000 --> 00:19:25.980
AFC South, the league might be figuring out the

00:19:25.980 --> 00:19:28.740
Colts. It sure seems like it. Daniel Jones is

00:19:28.740 --> 00:19:31.099
facing a lot of skepticism after two straight

00:19:31.099 --> 00:19:34.940
losses, and the formula seems to be simple. Stop

00:19:34.940 --> 00:19:37.380
Jonathan Taylor. The Steelers and Chiefs both

00:19:37.380 --> 00:19:39.839
held them under 60 yards. And when you do that,

00:19:39.859 --> 00:19:42.539
it puts the whole game on Daniel Jones' arm,

00:19:42.660 --> 00:19:45.380
forces them into obvious passing situations,

00:19:45.460 --> 00:19:47.059
and that's just not what they want to be. The

00:19:47.059 --> 00:19:49.819
shine is definitely wearing off in Indy. All

00:19:49.819 --> 00:19:51.660
right, let's pivot to the college game. It is

00:19:51.660 --> 00:19:54.240
rivalry week, and it does not get bigger than

00:19:54.240 --> 00:19:56.579
what's happening in Ann Arbor on Saturday. The

00:19:56.579 --> 00:20:00.519
game. No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan. The

00:20:00.519 --> 00:20:03.519
stakes are just off the charts. This is basically

00:20:03.519 --> 00:20:06.630
a playoff elimination game. And Michigan, despite

00:20:06.630 --> 00:20:09.569
winning the last four in this rivalry, they're

00:20:09.569 --> 00:20:13.009
a huge underdog. A 9 .5 -point underdog at home.

00:20:13.170 --> 00:20:15.529
Their whole identity is running the football.

00:20:16.069 --> 00:20:18.309
Marshall and Haynes have been a two -headed monster

00:20:18.309 --> 00:20:21.569
all year. But their identity is in trouble. It

00:20:21.569 --> 00:20:24.369
is. Justice Haynes is doubtful for the game.

00:20:24.450 --> 00:20:26.130
And if their running game is neutralized, they

00:20:26.130 --> 00:20:28.549
are in deep, deep trouble. They are not built

00:20:28.549 --> 00:20:30.789
to play from behind and win a shootout. And Ohio

00:20:30.789 --> 00:20:32.890
State is the worst possible matchup for them

00:20:32.890 --> 00:20:35.670
if they can't run. The absolute worst. Michigan's

00:20:35.670 --> 00:20:37.490
secondary is the weakest part of their defense,

00:20:37.650 --> 00:20:40.109
and Ohio State has a fleet of five -star receivers

00:20:40.109 --> 00:20:42.490
like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, who are

00:20:42.490 --> 00:20:44.769
both expected back from injury. They can exploit

00:20:44.769 --> 00:20:47.250
that matchup all day long. And the Ohio State

00:20:47.250 --> 00:20:50.029
defense is just suffocating. It's statistically

00:20:50.029 --> 00:20:52.609
dominant. They've only allowed 19 opponent trips

00:20:52.609 --> 00:20:55.390
to the red zone all year and only seven touchdowns.

00:20:55.390 --> 00:20:58.789
Seven touchdowns in 12 games inside the 20. That's

00:20:58.789 --> 00:21:01.809
unbelievable. It's game -changing. It means even

00:21:01.809 --> 00:21:03.750
if Michigan moves the ball, They're settling

00:21:03.750 --> 00:21:05.950
for field goals, and you can't beat this Ohio

00:21:05.950 --> 00:21:08.369
State team trading field goals for touchdowns.

00:21:08.369 --> 00:21:10.369
Plus, they're elite against the run, so they're

00:21:10.369 --> 00:21:12.869
built to stop the one thing Michigan wants to

00:21:12.869 --> 00:21:15.549
do. Everything on paper points to an Ohio State

00:21:15.549 --> 00:21:17.569
win, and probably a comfortable one. They're

00:21:17.569 --> 00:21:20.539
just built to bury teams like this. There's that

00:21:20.539 --> 00:21:22.380
historical trend that gives you pause. There

00:21:22.380 --> 00:21:25.019
is. Michigan has covered the spread in four straight

00:21:25.019 --> 00:21:28.519
games against Ohio State, and all four were outright

00:21:28.519 --> 00:21:31.099
wins. That's the longest streak in this rivalry

00:21:31.099 --> 00:21:35.940
since the FBS -FCS split back in 1978. So for

00:21:35.940 --> 00:21:39.440
nearly 50 years. No Michigan team has defied

00:21:39.440 --> 00:21:41.599
expectations against Ohio State like this current

00:21:41.599 --> 00:21:44.299
group has. It's a genuine historical phenomenon.

00:21:44.740 --> 00:21:47.160
Now, Ohio State is 8 -1 against ranked teams

00:21:47.160 --> 00:21:48.880
since last year, so they know how to handle the

00:21:48.880 --> 00:21:53.079
big stage. But that trend, it makes this game

00:21:53.079 --> 00:21:56.039
fascinating. While that rivalry plays out, the

00:21:56.039 --> 00:21:58.440
coaching carousel is spitting like crazy. It

00:21:58.440 --> 00:22:01.019
is. And we have our first big move. Jim Mora

00:22:01.019 --> 00:22:03.859
is leaving UConn for Colorado State. That's a

00:22:03.859 --> 00:22:05.920
great hire for Colorado State. He completely

00:22:05.920 --> 00:22:08.700
resurrected that UConn program. He did. It's

00:22:08.700 --> 00:22:12.079
video game numbers. And Bo Brungard at Youngstown

00:22:12.079 --> 00:22:14.759
State with 24 rushing touchdowns. It's just great

00:22:14.759 --> 00:22:16.200
to see these guys get the national recognition

00:22:16.200 --> 00:22:18.759
they deserve. Absolutely. Okay, let's bring it

00:22:18.759 --> 00:22:20.839
home with some fantasy football advice. It is

00:22:20.839 --> 00:22:23.900
crunch time, week 13. Every decision matters.

00:22:24.059 --> 00:22:26.779
It really does. Let's start at quarterback. Jalen

00:22:26.779 --> 00:22:29.319
Hurts, despite all the Eagles issues, is still

00:22:29.319 --> 00:22:32.000
the consensus QB1 this week against a soft Bears

00:22:32.000 --> 00:22:35.619
defense. Patrick Mahomes is QB2. And Joe Burrow,

00:22:35.680 --> 00:22:38.500
in his return, is ranked 11th. So a cautious

00:22:38.500 --> 00:22:41.519
top 12 play. Right. The analysts are baking in

00:22:41.519 --> 00:22:43.400
a little risk with that turk toe. And for the

00:22:43.400 --> 00:22:45.640
Thanksgiving games, the QBs are not ranked highly.

00:22:45.960 --> 00:22:49.180
Goff is 14th. Jordan Love is down at 20th. That

00:22:49.180 --> 00:22:51.980
Packers -Lions game is expected to be a slugfest.

00:22:52.319 --> 00:22:54.720
At running back, Jameer Gibbs is now an elite

00:22:54.720 --> 00:22:58.160
must -start. Oh, yeah. He's ranked RB3 overall.

00:22:58.720 --> 00:23:01.079
He has fully taken over that backfield and is

00:23:01.079 --> 00:23:03.579
getting massive volume as both a runner and a

00:23:03.579 --> 00:23:06.000
receiver. The trickiest situation is the Chiefs'

00:23:06.000 --> 00:23:08.200
backfield. It's very tricky. Kareem Hunt got

00:23:08.200 --> 00:23:10.920
30 touches last week, but Isaiah Pacheco is expected

00:23:10.920 --> 00:23:13.660
back for Thanksgiving. Pacheco is ranked RB35,

00:23:13.819 --> 00:23:15.460
which tells you there's a ton of uncertainty.

00:23:15.859 --> 00:23:18.599
If Pacheco's fully healthy, he could be a league

00:23:18.599 --> 00:23:20.420
winner down the stretch, right? We saw what he

00:23:20.420 --> 00:23:22.160
did in the playoffs last year. Absolutely. He

00:23:22.160 --> 00:23:24.849
thrives on volume. but we just don't know if

00:23:24.849 --> 00:23:27.190
he'll get a full workload right away. So starting

00:23:27.190 --> 00:23:29.730
him this week is a risky proposition, whereas

00:23:29.730 --> 00:23:32.369
Hunt feels like a safer floor play. And Saquon

00:23:32.369 --> 00:23:35.130
Barkley is still ranked as RB10, but that's almost

00:23:35.130 --> 00:23:37.849
purely based on volume. It is. You're not counting

00:23:37.849 --> 00:23:39.549
on those home run plays anymore. You're just

00:23:39.549 --> 00:23:41.470
hoping he falls into the end zone. Any waiver

00:23:41.470 --> 00:23:43.710
wire guys we should be looking at. I like Chimere

00:23:43.710 --> 00:23:45.970
Dyke, the wide receiver for the Titans. When

00:23:45.970 --> 00:23:48.650
he gets targets, he produces. He's had a couple

00:23:48.650 --> 00:23:50.529
of good games recently, and he's also a great

00:23:50.529 --> 00:23:53.269
returner, which just speaks to his overall athleticism.

00:23:53.269 --> 00:23:56.250
A good stash for a deep league. Okay, let's wrap

00:23:56.250 --> 00:23:58.750
with this. Who are the most important players

00:23:58.750 --> 00:24:01.430
for the real -life and fantasy playoff stretch?

00:24:01.809 --> 00:24:04.710
Dan Graziano from ESPN says it's Jalen Hurts.

00:24:04.910 --> 00:24:07.569
He's the only one who can quiet all the noise

00:24:07.569 --> 00:24:10.910
about the Eagles' offense being a mess. If he

00:24:10.910 --> 00:24:13.750
gets back to his MVP form, he can carry fantasy

00:24:13.750 --> 00:24:16.630
teams and the actual Eagles. I'll go with Patrick

00:24:16.630 --> 00:24:19.509
Mahomes. It's all about those one -score games.

00:24:19.910 --> 00:24:22.750
If he rediscovers that clutch magic from last

00:24:22.750 --> 00:24:25.670
season, the Chiefs become terrifying again, and

00:24:25.670 --> 00:24:27.769
he becomes the fantasy QB one we all drafted

00:24:27.769 --> 00:24:30.049
him to be. And my final one is Lamar Jackson.

00:24:30.250 --> 00:24:33.029
He is the key to unlocking that Ravens offense.

00:24:33.549 --> 00:24:36.549
The big question is, can his body hold up? If

00:24:36.549 --> 00:24:38.309
his legs are healthy and he starts running like

00:24:38.309 --> 00:24:41.089
the old Lamar, Baltimore becomes a true Super

00:24:41.089 --> 00:24:43.829
Bowl contender, and he becomes a top -five fantasy

00:24:43.829 --> 00:24:47.539
QB again. Three massive stars with the weight

00:24:47.539 --> 00:24:49.660
of their teams on their shoulders for this final

00:24:49.660 --> 00:24:51.920
push. It's the theme every single year at this

00:24:51.920 --> 00:24:53.900
time, isn't it? The pressure just ramps up and

00:24:53.900 --> 00:24:55.819
you find out who these guys really are. And what

00:24:55.819 --> 00:24:57.720
a week we have ahead of us. From the Thanksgiving

00:24:57.720 --> 00:25:00.420
games to the biggest college rivalry game in

00:25:00.420 --> 00:25:02.920
years. Exactly. And I want to leave you with

00:25:02.920 --> 00:25:05.480
a final thought to chew on. We talked a lot about

00:25:05.480 --> 00:25:07.220
Shutter Sanders and this idea of confidence.

00:25:07.599 --> 00:25:09.980
Well, I want you to think about that razor thin

00:25:09.980 --> 00:25:13.299
line between confidence and questionable decision

00:25:13.299 --> 00:25:16.099
making. We've seen that second part from guys

00:25:16.099 --> 00:25:18.660
like Brock Purdy, J .J. McCarthy, even Daniel

00:25:18.660 --> 00:25:21.420
Jones in key moments this year. December is where

00:25:21.420 --> 00:25:23.500
the pressure exposes you. So my question for

00:25:23.500 --> 00:25:27.039
you is, what will these next six weeks tell us

00:25:27.039 --> 00:25:29.220
about the long -term future of those quarterbacks?

00:25:29.299 --> 00:25:31.779
Will they prove they have the clutch gene when

00:25:31.779 --> 00:25:34.359
the games matter most? A great question to think

00:25:34.359 --> 00:25:35.960
about this weekend. Thank you for joining us

00:25:35.960 --> 00:25:37.900
for another Essential Football Army Breakdown.

00:25:38.019 --> 00:25:38.839
We'll catch you next time.
