Welcome back to Football Army, your essential
guide for navigating really just the absolute
chaos of the NFL and NCAA season. There's the
perfect word for it. We are officially in that
late November stretch where everything just feels
bigger. The stakes are massive. Every single
snap feels like it could decide a team's entire
season. That's absolutely right. You know, if
September is about figuring out who you are,
late November is about trying to survive with
that identity. And nothing, I mean nothing. kicks
off this high stakes period like Thanksgiving
Day football. It's the best tradition. Yeah.
And we've got a huge slate of games that could
really shake up the playoff picture in both conferences.
So here's our mission for you today. We're going
to break down that entire three game Thanksgiving
triple header. We'll get into the history, the
key stats and. Yeah, our predictions. And after
that, we're diving into the big league -wide
stories, the total turmoil in the NFC East, the
coaching hop seats that are getting warmer by
the minute, and the, well, the really polarizing
rise of some of these rookie quarterbacks. Then
we're shifting to college for rivalry week. We
have maybe the biggest. the game Ohio State versus
Michigan that we've seen in years. Oh, it's huge.
And we'll also track the coaching carousel. You've
got Jim Mora on the move and, of course, the
constant speculation around Lane Kiffin. And
finally, we'll give you those essential fantasy
football insights you need. That final push for
the playoffs is here, and every lineup decision
counts. All right, let's get into it, starting
with the tradition itself. Thanksgiving. Yeah.
And you can't talk about Thanksgiving football
without first talking about the man who basically
was the voice of the holiday for so many of us.
The late, great John Madden. Exactly. For me,
growing up, the sounds of Thanksgiving were,
you know, the parade on TV, family in the kitchen,
and John Madden's voice over the game. It's so
true. He just made it feel like more than a game.
And the NFL is doing a really wonderful tribute
this year, making sure that Legacy is front and
center on all three broadcasts, Fox, CBS, and
NBC. Which is great to see. Yeah, and the details
are really thoughtful. First off, every player
on all six teams will wear a special Madden patch
on their jersey. But the part I love, the part
that's just so Madden, is the coin toss. The
turducken coin. The turducken coin. On the head
side, you've got a silhouette of Coach Madden.
And on the tail side... A six -legged turducken,
you know, honoring his favorite holiday dish.
It's just perfectly absurd, isn't it? Only Madden
could inspire that. Right. But it's not all fun
and games. It's also about the future. They're
giving out a Madden Thanksgiving MVP award after
each game. And the winner gets more than just
a trophy. Exactly. The NFL Foundation makes a
$10 ,000 donation in that player's name. to a
youth football program. It's just a perfect way
to tie his legacy to the next generation of players.
Love that. Okay, let's get into the action. First
up, the NSC North Clash, Green Bay Packers at
the Detroit Lions, 1 o 'clock Eastern. This game
is just steeped in history. It's the 23rd time
these two have met on Thanksgiving. That's an
NFL record. And the Lions actually have the edge
on Turkey Day, right? They're 12 -9 -1. They
do. And look, motivation is everything for Detroit
here. They got crushed by the Packers 27 -13
way back in week one at Lambeau. That loss has
been sitting with them all year. You have to
think they've had this one circled. Oh, for sure.
Aidan Hutchinson basically said as much. He called
this, and I'm quoting, as big as any game will
play in the regular season, this is their chance
to make a statement on a national stage. So the
key to this game, it feels like it comes down
to one thing for Detroit, and that's protecting
Jared Goff. That is the entire ballgame. Look,
Green Bay's defense, they've been quietly really
good at getting after the quarterback. They generate
pressure on 35 % of snaps. That's the sixth highest
rate in the whole league. Now, here's the killer
stat for Detroit. When Jared Goff faces pressure
this season, his QBR, his total quarterback rating,
drops by an incredible 69 points. 69 points.
I mean, that's not just a drop. That's falling
off a cliff. It's the biggest drop in the NFL.
And it tells you everything you need to know.
Goff is a great quarterback when he's clean,
when he can throw on time. But when you force
him off his spot, when that interior pressure
gets there, his mechanics break down and he becomes
a completely different player. And that's exactly
what the Packers defense is designed to do. Right.
They'll try to create that chaos up the middle
and force him into mistakes. If Green Bay hits
that 35 percent pressure rate, it could completely
stall out Detroit's offense. But on the flip
side, the Lions have. An absolute weapon who
doesn't need a clean pocket to do damage. Jameer
Gibbs. He has been just electric. He just won
his second NFC Offensive Player of the Week award
in three weeks. His game against the Giants was
insane. 219 scrimmage yards, three touchdowns.
He's averaging, what, like 194 yards over his
last three. It's unbelievable production. And
he's on the verge of making some serious history.
Right. The touchdown milestone. Yep. With just
one more touchdown of any kind, rushing, receiving,
whatever, he becomes only the fifth player in
NFL history to get 45 total touchdowns in his
first three seasons. And the other four guys
on that list are? Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson,
Gale Sayers, and Earl Campbell. So just a few
Hall of Famers. No big deal. Just, you know,
the Mount Rushmore of running backs. That's the
kind of air he's breathing right now. So what
are the predictions looking like? The line is
pretty tight. It is. Detroit is favored by just
two and a half points. Most analysts, like Maldonado
and Moody, are picking the lines to win and cover.
Scores like 34 -24, 30 -27. The FPI gives them
a slight edge, about 54%. But not everyone agrees.
Nope. Walder has the Packers pulling off the
upset, 23 -17. And you do have to factor in the
coaching. Rex Ryan has been all over Dan Campbell's
clock management this year. Yeah, that's a legitimate
concern. In a tight divisional game, one bad
decision late in the fourth quarter could be
the difference. Campbell can't afford one of
those aggressive gambles that don't pay off.
And Packers fans have seen this movie before,
just last year. They came in as huge underdogs
and spoiled the Lions Thanksgiving. They did.
An 8 .5 point dog won 29 -22. And that win really
kickstarted their whole playoff run. They need
that same kind of gritty defensive performance
on Thursday. All right, let's move to the afternoon
game. The 4 .30 Eastern kickoff, Kansas City
Chiefs at the Dallas Cowboys. A classic matchup.
And for the Chiefs, this is all about building
on that last win. That wild comeback against
the Colts. They were down 11 in the fourth and
pull it out in overtime. Right. And Patrick Mahomes
said it himself this week. They need to build
off that momentum. But that win was more than
just a W. It was like a psychological hurdle
they finally cleared. The one score game narrative.
Exactly. Before that game, they were zero and
five in one score games this season, which is
just bizarre when you remember that last year
on their way to the Super Bowl, they won a record
12 and 0 in those same situations. So getting
that win, it kind of proves they still have that
clutch gene in them, even if it's been heightened
all year. It shows it's still there. No, for
the Cowboys, their path to victory is crystal
clear. It's all about play action. Right. Establish
the run, then hit them over the top. 100%. Dak
Prescott has the best QBR in the entire league
on play action passes this year. He's tied for
the league lead with 13 touchdowns off of play
action. And that's a huge problem for the Chiefs
defense, isn't it? It's their biggest vulnerability.
Kansas City's defense allows an 82 % completion
rate on play action. They're giving up almost
10 yards per attempt. That's third worst in the
NFL. So if Dallas can get their ground game going
early. It opens up everything. The Chiefs will
have to bring a safety down into the box, and
that's when Prescott can take his shots downfield.
It's a massive tactical mismatch if Dallas can
exploit it. Good news for them on the personnel
front, too. George Pickens and Kavante Turpin
are both good to go. No injury designation. Yep.
And, you know, stepping away from the X's and
O's for a second, a really great story out of
Dallas this week. The Dak Prescott initiative.
Yeah. It came out that his charity initiative
for cancer screening actually led to a Cowboys
executive getting diagnosed early with stage
two cancer. And it basically saved his life.
It's just a great reminder of the impact these
guys can have off the field. Absolutely incredible
story. OK, back to the game. The predictions
here seem pretty one sided. Yeah, the consensus
is heavily on the Chiefs. Maldonado, Moody, Walder,
they all have Casey winning. The FBI is really
bullish, too, gives them a 63 .6 percent chance
to win by about five points. But there's a trend
we need to talk about. The betting trends. Yeah,
they tell a different story. The Cowboys have
been fantastic as underdogs this year. They're
4 -1 against the spread. Meaning they play better
than people expect. Exactly. And the Chiefs,
on the other hand, are just 1 -4 against the
spread on the road. So while everyone expects
a Chiefs win, the numbers suggest this game could
be much, much closer than people think. If the
Chiefs need some Thanksgiving road magic to look
back on, they've got it. Oh yeah. You go back
to 1996, Marcus Allen. He passed Walter Payton
for the all -time rushing touchdown record with
his 111th score against the Lions, helping KC
rally for a huge comeback win. That's the kind
of grit they'll need in Dallas. And finally,
the nightcap. The 820 kickoff. An AFC North grudge
match. Cincinnati Bengals at the Baltimore Ravens.
And the entire story here is the return of one
man. Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is back after missing
nine games with that turf toe injury. And look,
the Bengals' playoff hopes are on life support.
ESPN gives them like a 1 % chance. 1%. But that
doesn't matter to Burrow. He came out and said,
I'm not going to live my life and play this game
scared of something happening. If he's healthy
enough to play, he's playing. Which is classic
Burrow. But we have to ask, what does a healthy
enough Joe Burrow look like? That turf toe injury
is no joke for a quarterback's mobility. That's
the huge question. It limits your ability to
push off, to extend plays. Does this turn the
Bengals into a purely short -passing, timing
-based offense? Because if it does, that plays
right into the hands of a Ravens defense built
to get pressure up the middle. And this isn't
just any game. This is a bitter rivalry. Oh,
yeah. Burr said he always dreamed of playing
on Thanksgiving, but the reality is just pure
AFC North hate. He said, you don't like them.
It's a division rivalry. And the Bengals are
trying to snap a four -game losing streak to
Baltimore. On the Ravens' side, Lamar Jackson
is practicing in full, which is good news. But
his recent play has been a little concerning.
It has. Zero touchdowns and two turnovers in
his last two starts. The defense is holding up
their end, but the offense has been sputtering.
You have to wonder if all those nagging injuries,
the toe, the ankle, are preventing him from being
the Lamar we're used to seeing. So the predictions
are kind of reflecting that offensive uncertainty,
right? They are. The Ravens are favored by a
touchdown, seven points. But both Dajani and
Dubin are picking the Bengals to cover that spread.
They're predicting really close games like 23
-21, 24 -20 Ravens. The thinking being that Baltimore's
offense just isn't explosive enough to blow them
out. Exactly. Their offense is ranked 21st in
the league. They're not built for blowouts. And
Burrow, even at 80 or 90 percent, is good enough
to keep the Bengals in this game and make it
a classic down -to -the -wire divisional fight.
All right. That sets the stage for a massive
Thanksgiving. But the news cycle, as we know,
never sleeps. Let's get into some of the bigger
headlines shaking up the league. And we have
to start in the NFC East with the spectacular
collapse happening in Philadelphia. It's a meltdown.
Blowing a 21 -point lead to the Cowboys. It wasn't
just a loss. That felt like it exposed something
rotten at the core. It did. And the stats are
just damning. I mean, they have the worst third
and out rate in the league since the 2014 Raiders.
The 2014 Raiders. That's a five -alarm fire.
It's a total structural failure on offense. And
when you can't stay on the field, it just puts
immense pressure on your defense. It kills your
field position. It's a recipe for losing. Their
overall success rate is down to 40%. That's 25th
in the league. And you're starting to see the
cracks show in the locker room. Former Eagles
QB Rodney Peete called out A .J. Brown's body
language and public frustration. Yeah, and that
stuff matters. When your number one receiver
is openly unhappy, it absolutely affects the
quarterback. It undermines Jalen Hurts' leadership
at a time when he's already facing questions
about his own play. And the running game isn't
helping him out at all. Sequon Barkley, I mean,
the explosiveness just isn't there. It's gone.
Ten carries in that loss. And the big stat is
he has only two rushes of over 20 yards all season.
Two. After having 17 last year. Right. He's not
creating those chunk plays that the offense desperately
needs. Which is why you're hearing some analysts
suggest maybe they should give Tank Bigsby more
run. Just to see if some fresh legs can provide
a spark. Meanwhile in Dallas, it's a completely
different story. Well, kind of. You've got C
.D. Lamb taking ownership of his drops. Yeah,
I loved his quote. He said, I need to catch the
effing ball. He's being solution oriented, which
is what you want to see. But his struggles are
happening at the exact moment. George Pickens
is turning into an absolute superstar. He's been
phenomenal. He's second in the NFL in receiving
yards with over a thousand eight touchdowns.
He is absolutely overshadowing Lamb right now.
Which creates a really tricky contract situation
for the Cowboys, doesn't it? It's a massive strategic
puzzle for them. They want to extend him, but
they also have to pay Dak, Micah Parsons, and
Lam. There's only so much money to go around.
So this is where the franchise take comes in.
This is exactly why the franchise tag exists.
In 2026, they can tag him for one year, probably
for around $28 million. And that buys them time.
It buys them time and flexibility. They get to
keep their star receiver for a year while they
sort out the other massive contracts. Pickens
Camp wants a huge deal now, but the Cowboys might
want to see one more year of this production
and, frankly, this maturity before they commit
that kind of long -term cash. Okay, let's shift
gears to a rookie QB. who is just a lightning
rod for conversation right now. Shedder Sanders
in Cleveland. Yeah, he wins his first start,
first Browns QB to do that in three decades.
He's now the starter moving forward, even with
Dylan Gabriel clearing protocol. But the football
story is almost secondary to the cultural story
around him. He's trying to downplay it, saying
he's just trying to do his job. But others are
not. Not at all. You have guys like Sean Merriman
defending his confidence, saying that little
bit of cockiness is exactly what a locker room
needs. It gives them an edge, a belief they can
win. And then the conversation goes to a whole
other level. And we have to be clear here. We're
just reporting what's being said by prominent
analysts. Right. Impartially. You have someone
like Emmanuel Ocho claiming the NFL colluded
to push Sanders out of the first round. He's
even called him the public sports face of oppression.
Which is an incredibly heavy label. It's immense.
Ocho's argument is that the media and scouts
scrutinize Sanders' confidence, his jewelry,
his flash. In a way, they would never scrutinize
a white quarterback. He believes it's a clear
example of systemic bias in the evaluation process.
And you have Kendrick Perkins comparing him to
Barack Obama. Calling him the most powerful black
man in sports. It's a massive amount of pressure
and expectation to put on a rookie after one
single start. He has become this symbol, and
now he has to go out and prove on the field that
he can sustain this level of play week after
week. From a rookie on the rise to coaches who
might be on their way out. The Hanseats are scorching
right now. And nowhere more than in Las Vegas.
The Raiders are in a free fall. Pete Carroll
is facing real one and done talk. Firing three
assistants in three weeks, including Chip Kelly.
That feels like a desperate move. It is a desperate
move. And what makes it more interesting is the
Tom Brady angle. Reports are saying Brady was
a huge advocate for bringing Kelly in. And now
he's deeply disappointed with the whole team's
performance, not just the offense. Having your
new minority owner who happens to be the GO disappointed
in you. That can't be a good feeling for Carroll.
No, it is not. The pressure is on. He has to
show some sign of life in these final six games,
or that one -and -done buzz could become a reality.
Who else is feeling the heat? ESPN is keeping
a close eye on Cincinnati and Atlanta. Zach Taylor
in Cincinnati. Yeah, Burrow got hurt, but they're
about to miss the playoffs for a third straight
year after making back -to -back AFC title games.
That's a big step backward. And Mike McDaniel
in Miami. He's an interesting case. The team
started 1 -6, so they've won three of their last
four. The owner seems to believe in him. He's
got a soft schedule coming up, so he has a real
chance to coach his way off the hot seat. And
quickly, a roster note out of Washington. It
sounds like they're preparing to move on from
a legend. Yeah, Bobby Wagner. He's 35, and while
he's been a great leader, his age is starting
to show, especially in pass coverage. They're
expected to reduce his snaps after the bye week
and get some of their younger linebackers, like
Jordan McGee, more playing time to build for
the future. A tough but necessary move. All right,
let's hit the transaction wire. The Buffalo Bills
made a big shakeup this week. A huge one. They're
clearly all in on this season. They cut receiver
Elijah Moore. an acquisition that just did not
work out at all. Nine catches in nine games.
Yeah, that's not getting it done. Not even close.
So to fill that void, they went out and signed
a proven veteran, Brandon Cooks. He asked for
his release from the Saints and got it. Yep.
And even at 32, Cooks is a massive upgrade. He's
a reliable route runner with six 1 ,000 -yard
seasons under his belt. He gives them a legitimate
deep threat on the perimeter that they have been
desperately missing. So he joins a room with
Khalil Shakir. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel.
That looks a lot better on paper. A lot better?
If he can build a quick rapport with his quarterback,
he could really change the ceiling of that entire
offense for the December push. Now, over to New
England, where they are facing a crisis on the
offensive line. A major crisis. Their rookie
left tackle, Will Campbell, is on injured reserve.
He's out for at least four games. Losing your
blindside protector is just a nightmare scenario.
And it sounds like Mike Frabel doesn't have an
easy answer. He was very noncommittal. The options
are a Vidarian Lowe, who was inconsistent last
year, or a rookie, Marcus Bryant, who has mostly
played right tackle. Neither is a great solution.
And yet, despite all that chaos, the Patriots
are still a 7 .5 -point favorite over the Giants
this week. It's incredible, isn't it? It just
tells you everything you need to know about the
current state of the New York Giants. Vegas thinks
their problems are way, way worse than the Patriots'
offensive line disaster. A few other quick injury
updates. Drake London is doubtful for the Falcons.
Yeah, and that's a big deal. When he's out, Kirk
Cousins has to spread the ball around to, like,
seven different guys, and none of them are a
true number one. It really limits their passing
game. The Chiefs will be shorthanded on Thanksgiving,
too. Redguard Smith is out. Yep, that's a loss
on the interior that could make it harder for
them to establish that run game we talked about.
Good news for the Broncos, though. They locked
up defensive tackle Malcolm Roach with a three
-year extension. Smart move, building from the
inside out on defense. And finally, down in the
AFC South, the league might be figuring out the
Colts. It sure seems like it. Daniel Jones is
facing a lot of skepticism after two straight
losses, and the formula seems to be simple. Stop
Jonathan Taylor. The Steelers and Chiefs both
held them under 60 yards. And when you do that,
it puts the whole game on Daniel Jones' arm,
forces them into obvious passing situations,
and that's just not what they want to be. The
shine is definitely wearing off in Indy. All
right, let's pivot to the college game. It is
rivalry week, and it does not get bigger than
what's happening in Ann Arbor on Saturday. The
game. No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan. The
stakes are just off the charts. This is basically
a playoff elimination game. And Michigan, despite
winning the last four in this rivalry, they're
a huge underdog. A 9 .5 -point underdog at home.
Their whole identity is running the football.
Marshall and Haynes have been a two -headed monster
all year. But their identity is in trouble. It
is. Justice Haynes is doubtful for the game.
And if their running game is neutralized, they
are in deep, deep trouble. They are not built
to play from behind and win a shootout. And Ohio
State is the worst possible matchup for them
if they can't run. The absolute worst. Michigan's
secondary is the weakest part of their defense,
and Ohio State has a fleet of five -star receivers
like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, who are
both expected back from injury. They can exploit
that matchup all day long. And the Ohio State
defense is just suffocating. It's statistically
dominant. They've only allowed 19 opponent trips
to the red zone all year and only seven touchdowns.
Seven touchdowns in 12 games inside the 20. That's
unbelievable. It's game -changing. It means even
if Michigan moves the ball, They're settling
for field goals, and you can't beat this Ohio
State team trading field goals for touchdowns.
Plus, they're elite against the run, so they're
built to stop the one thing Michigan wants to
do. Everything on paper points to an Ohio State
win, and probably a comfortable one. They're
just built to bury teams like this. There's that
historical trend that gives you pause. There
is. Michigan has covered the spread in four straight
games against Ohio State, and all four were outright
wins. That's the longest streak in this rivalry
since the FBS -FCS split back in 1978. So for
nearly 50 years. No Michigan team has defied
expectations against Ohio State like this current
group has. It's a genuine historical phenomenon.
Now, Ohio State is 8 -1 against ranked teams
since last year, so they know how to handle the
big stage. But that trend, it makes this game
fascinating. While that rivalry plays out, the
coaching carousel is spitting like crazy. It
is. And we have our first big move. Jim Mora
is leaving UConn for Colorado State. That's a
great hire for Colorado State. He completely
resurrected that UConn program. He did. It's
video game numbers. And Bo Brungard at Youngstown
State with 24 rushing touchdowns. It's just great
to see these guys get the national recognition
they deserve. Absolutely. Okay, let's bring it
home with some fantasy football advice. It is
crunch time, week 13. Every decision matters.
It really does. Let's start at quarterback. Jalen
Hurts, despite all the Eagles issues, is still
the consensus QB1 this week against a soft Bears
defense. Patrick Mahomes is QB2. And Joe Burrow,
in his return, is ranked 11th. So a cautious
top 12 play. Right. The analysts are baking in
a little risk with that turk toe. And for the
Thanksgiving games, the QBs are not ranked highly.
Goff is 14th. Jordan Love is down at 20th. That
Packers -Lions game is expected to be a slugfest.
At running back, Jameer Gibbs is now an elite
must -start. Oh, yeah. He's ranked RB3 overall.
He has fully taken over that backfield and is
getting massive volume as both a runner and a
receiver. The trickiest situation is the Chiefs'
backfield. It's very tricky. Kareem Hunt got
30 touches last week, but Isaiah Pacheco is expected
back for Thanksgiving. Pacheco is ranked RB35,
which tells you there's a ton of uncertainty.
If Pacheco's fully healthy, he could be a league
winner down the stretch, right? We saw what he
did in the playoffs last year. Absolutely. He
thrives on volume. but we just don't know if
he'll get a full workload right away. So starting
him this week is a risky proposition, whereas
Hunt feels like a safer floor play. And Saquon
Barkley is still ranked as RB10, but that's almost
purely based on volume. It is. You're not counting
on those home run plays anymore. You're just
hoping he falls into the end zone. Any waiver
wire guys we should be looking at. I like Chimere
Dyke, the wide receiver for the Titans. When
he gets targets, he produces. He's had a couple
of good games recently, and he's also a great
returner, which just speaks to his overall athleticism.
A good stash for a deep league. Okay, let's wrap
with this. Who are the most important players
for the real -life and fantasy playoff stretch?
Dan Graziano from ESPN says it's Jalen Hurts.
He's the only one who can quiet all the noise
about the Eagles' offense being a mess. If he
gets back to his MVP form, he can carry fantasy
teams and the actual Eagles. I'll go with Patrick
Mahomes. It's all about those one -score games.
If he rediscovers that clutch magic from last
season, the Chiefs become terrifying again, and
he becomes the fantasy QB one we all drafted
him to be. And my final one is Lamar Jackson.
He is the key to unlocking that Ravens offense.
The big question is, can his body hold up? If
his legs are healthy and he starts running like
the old Lamar, Baltimore becomes a true Super
Bowl contender, and he becomes a top -five fantasy
QB again. Three massive stars with the weight
of their teams on their shoulders for this final
push. It's the theme every single year at this
time, isn't it? The pressure just ramps up and
you find out who these guys really are. And what
a week we have ahead of us. From the Thanksgiving
games to the biggest college rivalry game in
years. Exactly. And I want to leave you with
a final thought to chew on. We talked a lot about
Shutter Sanders and this idea of confidence.
Well, I want you to think about that razor thin
line between confidence and questionable decision
making. We've seen that second part from guys
like Brock Purdy, J .J. McCarthy, even Daniel
Jones in key moments this year. December is where
the pressure exposes you. So my question for
you is, what will these next six weeks tell us
about the long -term future of those quarterbacks?
Will they prove they have the clutch gene when
the games matter most? A great question to think
about this weekend. Thank you for joining us
for another Essential Football Army Breakdown.
We'll catch you next time.