Welcome to Football Army. We are here to break
down what was, I mean, just a chaotic week 12.
The entire playoff picture, both in the NFL and
in college, it feels like it got completely reorganized.
It absolutely did. This is one of those weeks
where you get definitive answers. You know, we
saw the NFC hierarchy just get flipped on its
head in a matter of hours. Right. And in the
AFC. A dynasty that we all thought was over might
be finding new life. Exactly. And on top of all
that, we saw an individual defensive performance
that is, and I'm not exaggerating, it's truly
one for the history books. So that's our mission
today. We are going to unpack the upsets, the
dominant performances, and... Some of the coaching
decisions that were just baffling, frankly. It's
all setting the stage for Thanksgiving and the
playoff push. Yeah, everything has changed. Let's
get into it. All right, let's start in the NFC
because that's where the biggest shift happened.
The whole conversation now is centered on Los
Angeles. It has to be. The Rams are 9 -2 and
they didn't just beat the Buccaneers, they dismantled
them 34 -7. They now have sole possession of
the number one seat in the conference. And it
all started with Matthew Stafford. I mean, we've
seen him be good, but this was something else.
Surgical is the only word for it. It really is.
He came out of the gate 12 for 12 passing. You
could tell immediately he was in a rhythm. And
by halftime, the numbers were just absurd. He
was 19 of 23 for 210 yards, three touchdowns
and no picks. That is how you get a 31 to 7 halftime
lead. I saw a stat that it was tied for the second
highest first half score the Rams have ever had
under Sean McVay. Yeah. And, you know, it's not
just the numbers. It's how they did it. McVay's
scheme was just perfectly designed to attack
what Tampa Bay was trying to do on defense. OK,
so break that down for me. What was McVay seeing
that allowed Stafford to just pick them apart
like that? Well, McVay knew the Bucs had to respect
the outside speed, so he just leaned into play
action. But he paired it with all this movement
from the tight ends and the slot receiver. So
it creates confusion for the linebackers and
safeties. Exactly. You see Stafford just, you
know, hold a safety with his eyes for a split
second, and that's all it takes. Look at Devontae
Adams' two touchdowns. They weren't just him
winning a one -on -one battle. They were schemed
open. Perfectly schemed open. A shallow crosser
with a deep clear -out route from the other side.
The corner has to make a choice, and Adams just
wins underneath every single time. Five catches,
62 yards, and those two scores. I think that's
nine touchdowns for him in the last five games.
Just incredible. And it wasn't just the superstars,
which is always the sign of a truly elite team,
right? Tyler Higbee was out. Yep, no Higbee.
And the backup, Colby Parkinson, steps right
in, catches his first four passes for 41 yards
and a touchdown. See, that's what I'm talking
about. When a backup tight end can just slot
into a complex system like McPhay's and not miss
a beat. That says everything about the coaching
and the preparation. It really does. And while
the offense was doing all that, the defense was
just completely dominant. This was the definition
of complementary football. Emmanuel Forbes Jr.
had, what, zero completions allowed on eight
targets? Eight targets, zero completions, an
interception, and five pass breakups. It was
a textbook performance in coverage. He was just
all over their receivers. And that frees up the
pass rush. It does. They didn't have to... Blitz
all day. The front four could just eat. And you
saw Kobe Turner, who's been a big quiet. He gets
two sacks. And then there's Kobe Durant. The
land shark. The land shark. Yeah, he lived up
to the nickname. And interception returned for
a touchdown. That was the play that just broke
Tampa's spirit. You could see it. So when you
put it all together. The interior push from Turner,
Durant making plays in the secondary, Stafford's
precision, you get that 34 -7 beatdown. It was
a message to the rest of the NFC. Absolutely.
The road to the Super Bowl, right now it goes
through L .A. Okay, so let's pivot to the team
that gave up that number one spot, the Philadelphia
Eagles. They go into Dallas at 8 -2, holding
the tiebreaker, and they just... They suffer
a historic meltdown. Historic is the right word.
You're up 21 to nothing in the first half against
your rival and you lose 24 -21. The stat that
blows my mind is zero points in the final 41
minutes and 30 seconds of the game. That's almost
three full quarters of getting completely shut
out. Seven straight possessions to end the game
with zero points. Three and outs, turnovers on
downs, punts. I mean, it was a total collapse.
And the blame, you know, it's landing squarely
on the first -year offensive coordinator, Kevin
Petullo. Yeah. But here's my question. Dallas'
defense has been, statistically, one of the worst
in the league. How did they suddenly look like
the 85 Bears? It's a great question, and I think
it points directly to Petullo's lack of in -game
adjustments. Dallas saw what Philly was doing
in the first half. Lots of early down runs, lots
of play action. And they completely changed their
scheme at halftime. They started bringing more
pressure. More man coverage and more disguised
blitzes from the slot. And Petula just, he had
no answer. He just kept calling the same predictable
pass plays on third down that Dallas knew was
coming. It felt so passive, so uncreative. It's
like the initial script worked great, but as
soon as they had to improvise, the whole thing
fell apart. That's been the knock on him all
season. And this game just put it under a microscope.
And what's wild is that even with this huge comeback
win, Dallas had its own drama. CeeDee Lamb. What
was going on there? Yeah, that was bizarre. He
had what some are calling a shameful outing.
Three really bad drops. One that should have
been a walk -in touchdown. And then he's seen
on the sideline having a full -on tantrum. While
his team was in the middle of a comeback. Right.
And the eyes and is just so thick because George
Pickens, the guy they traded a third round pick
for, he's the one who stabilizes the offense.
He had nine catches for 146 yards and a touchdown.
So Pickens, who the Steelers basically gave up
on because of supposed maturity issues, is the
mature, calming presence while Lamb is having
a meltdown. Exactly. Pickens even said he was
meant to get this fresh start in Dallas. And
you look at the numbers. His receiving yards
this year are more than all the remaining Steelers'
wideouts combined. That trade is looking worse
and worse for Pittsburgh every single week. It's
a tough look. It just shows how much a player's
environment really matters. And while Dallas
celebrates, Tampa Bay, their whole season just
got a lot darker. They dropped to 6 -5, and now
Baker Mayfield is hurt. Yeah, that's a huge blow.
Left the game in a sling, a left shoulder sprain.
It happened on that failed Hail Mary attempt
right before the half. He's going to miss time,
and that breaks the streak of what, 48 straight
starts for him. He's been the definition of durable.
He has, and now you're turning to Teddy Bridgewater,
but it's not just about the backup QB. The whole
team just looked, I saw it described as heartless
and checked out in the second half. That's a
coaching issue. It points directly to Todd Bowles
and his staff. A 6 -5 record doesn't mean much
if the team just quits when they face a little
adversity. All right. Let's stick with the NFC,
but move north because the NFC North has become
maybe the most interesting division in football.
And it's because of the Chicago Bears. I mean,
who would have predicted this? The Bears are
8 -3. They just beat the Steelers 31 -28 for
their fourth straight win. And this isn't a fluke.
This is real sustainable development from their
key guys. And it starts with Caleb Williams.
The narrative around him is really starting to
build. You have Mike Tomlin, the opposing coach,
just. openly praising him after the game. And
that's not something you hear every day. Tomlin
was talking about his anticipation, his arm talent,
his poise. It just validates what you see on
the tape. The pairing of Caleb Williams and offensive
coordinator Ben Johnson is becoming a serious
problem for defenses. And Johnson seems to be
tailoring the offense perfectly for him. Lots
of crossers, lots of quick hitting patterns.
It's just smart coaching. They know their offensive
line can be inconsistent. So what do you do?
You design plays that get the ball out of the
quarterback's hands quickly. Right. It neutralizes
the pass rush. It completely neutralizes it.
Williams can throw to a spot before his receiver
even makes the break. It cuts down on the hits
he takes. And it really stresses out the opposing
linebackers and safeties. It's a much smarter
approach than the deep drop back stuff they were
trying to run before. So they're winning with
smart offense, but they're also winning despite,
I mean, catastrophic injuries on defense. They
beat Pittsburgh without their top three linebackers.
Tremaine Edmonds, TJ Edwards, Noah Sewell. All
out. That's the heart of your defense. Gone.
And the backups? DeMarco Jackson and Ogbong Bemiga,
they just stepped in and played great. That's
the next man up mentality you always hear about,
but you rarely see it work this well. It really
shows you the quality of the coaching and the
depth they've built. When you can lose that much
talent and still find a way to win a tough game,
it tells you your foundation is solid. The scheme,
the culture, all of it. So the Bears at 8 -3
just throw that whole NFC playoff picture into
chaos. I mean, let's look at it. It feels like
an eight -team race for seven spots. It really
is. You've got the Rams and the Eagles who are
probably, despite Philly's collapse, still near
locks to make it. But after that... After that,
it's a total dogfight. You have the Seahawks
at 8 -3, the Niners at 7 -4, the Lions at 7 -4,
the Packers at 7 -3 -1, and now the Bears at
8 -3. And the Buccaneers are still technically
hanging around at 6 -5, though the Mayfield injury
really hurts them. So what about Dallas? That
big win over the Eagles? How much did that help
their chances? It helped a lot, but they're still
kind of on the outside looking in. Their chances
are probably around, you know, 10 to 13 percent.
The real battle is that cluster of teams with
seven or eight wins. Right. The Seahawks and
49ers are beating each other up in the West,
while the Bears, Lions and Packers are all fighting
for the North. Every single game from here on
out is basically a playoff game for those teams.
The difference between getting a home playoff
game and missing the postseason entirely could
come down to a single tiebreaker. It's going
to be wild. Okay, let's slip over to the ASC
because there's a power shift happening there
that, I mean, nobody saw this coming. We have
to talk about the New England Patriots. It's
kind of stunning, isn't it? The Patriots just
won their ninth straight game. They beat the
Bengals 26 -20, and they're now 10 -2. They have
a huge lead over the Bills in the AFC East. The
Bills have owned that division for five straight
years since Brady left. And now all of a sudden
they're 7 -4 after losing to the Texans, and
they're looking up at New England. It's a harsh
reality for them. It is. Josh Allen got beat
up in that Texans game. I think he was hit 12
times, sacked eight times. And meanwhile, you've
got the Mike Rabel and Drake May duo in New England
just quietly getting it done. Rabel's defense
is legit and May is just. He's not making the
big mistakes. He's the perfect game manager for
what they want to do. And that's all they need.
They finally ended that five -year run of Buffalo's
dominance in the division. But that win came
at a cost. Their rookie left tackle, Will Campbell,
went down with a knee injury. Yeah, that's a
tough one. Sounds like an MCL sprain. He's going
to miss multiple weights, probably lands on injured
reserve, which means at least four games. That's
a huge blow to their offensive line, right as
they're heading into the toughest part of their
schedule. That's really going to test their depth.
It will. It's a real stress test at the worst
possible time. But look, as big as the Patriots'
story is, The biggest individual story in the
AFC, maybe in the whole league, is what Miles
Garrett is doing. Oh, it's unbelievable. He's
not just having a great season. He is having
a historically great season. He's got 18 sacks
through 11 games. And the stat that just breaks
my brain, 14 of those sacks have come in the
last four games. 14. That breaks Michael Strahan's
record for a four -game span. When you're putting
up numbers like that, the conversation changes
from, you know. Is he the defensive player of
the year to is this the greatest defensive season
of all time? He's on pace for 27 sacks. That
would just shatter the record. So how is he doing
it? Teams are double teaming him. They're sliding
protection his way. How is he still winning at
this rate? It's the inside out synergy. And you
have to give the Browns front office a ton of
credit here. They went out and got guys like
Malik Collins, Mason Graham, Shelby Harris to
beef up the interior of that defensive line.
Ah, so you can't just focus all your attention
on Garrett anymore. You can't. Because if you
do, Collins or Graham is going to be in the quarterback's
lap immediately. And what does a quarterback
do when there's pressure up the middle? They
try to step up or escape the pocket. They step
up in the pocket. Right into Miles Garrett, who
has been patiently waiting on the outside. The
interior rush is forcing quarterbacks to hold
the ball for just a half second longer. And for
Garrett, that's all the time he needs. It sounds
terrifying. The whole unit had 10 sacks against
the Raiders. Ten sacks. Collins had two and a
half himself. And Garrett, who was apparently
sick all week, still managed to get three sacks
and a strip sack. That's just a normal day at
the office for him now. Insane. And that performance
led to a 24 -10 win over the Raiders, which was
also the first career win for rookie quarterback
Shedder Sanders. It was. And, you know, he had
some moments. He had that incredible deep ball
to bond where he avoided a sack and just launched
it. But he had some rookie moments, too. The
head scratchers, as they were called. Yeah, he
had a really bad interception into double coverage
that was just unnecessary. But overall, you saw
the flashes. You saw the arm talent, the poise.
And now the debate in Cleveland is, you know,
is he good enough to keep the starting job? And
after a win, with that defense behind him, you
have to think the answer is yes, right? Let the
kid learn on the job. I think so. You trust that
elite defense to keep you in games and let him
work through the mistakes. Well, that loss was
the final nail in the coffin for one coach. The
Raiders fired their offensive coordinator, Chip
Kelly, after just 10 games. Brutal. But you can't
be surprised. Their offense has been terrible.
They failed to score more than 20 points in six
of their last seven games. There was just no
identity, no creativity. And the irony is just,
it's incredible. Chip Kelly, who just won a national
title as the OC at Ohio State, gets fired after
losing to Shedderer Sanders, who went to one
of Kelly's first QB camps back when Kelly was
coaching at UCLA. The football world is a very
small and sometimes very cruel circle. Kelly
will be fine, though. He'll have a top college
job by next week. The coaching carousel is officially
spinning. And speaking of big games, the Thanksgiving
slate is here and the Lions hosting the Packers
is, I mean, it's a massive game for the playoff
picture. It's a huge one. It's a rematch from
week one, which the Packers won pretty easily,
27 -13. But now the Lions are 7 -4 at home and
they're three -point favorites. The leverage
in this game is just off the charts, especially
for Green Bay. I saw a projection that if the
Packers win, their playoff chances jump from
77 % all the way up to 91%. Wow, that's a huge
swing. And a loss drops them down to 68%. So
yeah, this one game has a massive impact on their
season. They needed to keep pace with the Bears
while the Lions are trying to hang on after that
crazy overtime win against the Giants. A game
that really... showed both the best and worst
of this Lions team. Their resilience is incredible,
but man, their defense has some holes. But that
overtime, that was just perfect Dan Campbell
football. He basically said, my only play call
is get the ball to Jameer Gibbs. And Gibbs took
the first play of overtime, 69 yards for the
touchdown. Game over. He just rewarded his coach's
faith instantly. And that game only even got
to overtime because of their kicker, Jake Bates.
A 59 -yard franchise record -tying field goal
to tie it. An incredible kick. And I love the
detail that he recites a Bible verse, Hebrews
12 .1, as part of his routine on those big kicks.
Whatever works, I guess. On the other side of
that game, the Giants interim coach, Mike Kafka,
he put on a trick play master class. They put
up over 500 yards of offense on that Lions defense.
It was amazing to watch. The Giants offense,
which is usually so boring, was suddenly the
most exciting show in the league. Had double
pass touchdown. Right. And then the craziest
play of the year, where Jameis Winston, the quarterback,
catches a 33 -yard touchdown pass from his wide
receiver, Gunnar Olszewski. It was wild. And
Kafka's creativity has to put him in the conversation
for the full -time head coaching job. But he
also made the decision that let the Lions back
in the game. Going for it on fourth and goal
late up by three instead of just kicking the
field goal. That's the other side of the coin
with aggressive coaches. When it works, you're
a genius. When it fails, you get second guessed
all week. And that failure led directly to the
Lions getting the ball back and Bates hitting
that monster kick. So while the Lions and Packers
battle it out, another team in that division,
the Vikings, are in real trouble. They're 4 -7
after getting blown out by Green Bay. And J .J.
McCarthy is really struggling. He looked bad
in that game. 12 of 19 for 87 yards and two picks.
And now you're starting to hear the whispers
about the Vikings letting Sam Darnold go, who's
having a pretty good year in Seattle. It's tough
because it's not all McCarthy's fault. That offensive
line is terrible. The run game is non -existent.
It's a really bad situation for a rookie quarterback.
It is. But you can't bench him now. You have
to see it through. What they need to do in the
offseason is bring in a reliable veteran to compete
with him or at least provide some insurance if
he continues to struggle. Thanksgiving game.
Ravens at the Bengals. Baltimore is favored,
but Lamar Jackson hasn't looked right. No, he
hasn't. Since he came back from that hamstring
injury, he hasn't thrown for 200 yards in three
straight games. And their big problem, their
fatal flaw, is still their inability to score
touchdowns in the red zone. Is that a play calling
issue or is it a physical thing with Lamar not
being 100 percent? I think it's a little of both.
He seems hesitant to really step into his throws,
especially in the tight windows of the red zone.
And that makes the predictable play calls even
less effective. The Bengals get Joe Burrow back,
which is huge for them. But they still have one
of the worst defenses in the league and a bad
offensive line. Right. So even with Lamar not
at his best, the Ravens should still be able
to run the ball all over Cincinnati. I think
the talent gap, especially on defense, is just
too big. Baltimore should win this one. Let's
talk about two more teams who are trying to figure
out who they are. The Jets and the Falcons. For
the Jets, it's just more the same misery. They're
2 -9 now after losing to the Ravens. It's tough
to watch. But you have to give Coach Aaron Glenn
credit for how he's handling it. You saw that
after Brees Hall fumbled at the two -yard line,
which basically lost them the game. Yeah, Glenn
came right out and defended him, said, ST happens,
and that Hall is my guy. He knows Hall is really
hard on himself, and he wanted to get in front
of that. That's great leadership. It is. But
that great player management is in sharp contrast
to a really questionable coaching decision he
made earlier in that game. The fourth and two
from their own 42 -yard line. Yes. Down by only
three points in the third quarter. There was
just no reason to take that risk. You punt the
ball, you trust your defense, and you play the
field position game. Instead, they fail, give
the Ravens the ball near midfield, and basically
hand them a field goal. It felt like a moment
of desperation. And it's that kind of gamble
that gets coaches fired. The risk just did not
justify the reward there at all. Now contrast
that with the Atlanta Falcons. They beat the
Saints 24 -10, and they are suddenly building
a real identity on defense. It's amazing. They've
had five or more sacks in four straight games.
Only 10 other teams in NFL history have ever
done that. And the best part is... All the guys
getting their sacks are first or second year
players. So you're talking about guys like James
Pierce Jr., Brandon Dorlis, Xavier Watts. This
is the kind of young core you can build around.
Absolutely. Pierce is starting to look like the
star pass rusher they drafted him to be. And
that young pass rush completely shut down Taysom
Hill, who has always given the Falcons fits.
And the offense changed its identity in that
game, too. They were under center a lot more
using three tight end sets. It was a clear shift
to a more physical ground -and -pound style,
and it worked. They bullied the Saints at the
line of scrimmage, controlled the clock, and
it took a lot of pressure off Kirk Cousins. And
Cousins had maybe his best game in over a year.
The play -action game was working perfectly for
him. It was. The only guy who didn't seem to
benefit was Kyle Pitts. He had a couple of really
bad drops, one of which led to an interception.
And that's the concern with him, right? Can he
be a consistent contributor in a run -first offense
that needs him to block and make tough catches?
The jury is still out. Okay, let's switch over
to the college game, because the biggest rivalry
in sports is this week, the game, and the stakes
could not be higher. No, they could not. Number
one, Ohio State, undefeated at 11 -0, goes on
the road to face number 15, Michigan, at 9 -2.
And the historical pressure on Ohio State is
just immense. They're trying to avoid losing
five straight games to Michigan for the first
time since the 1920s. The 1920s. Can you imagine
that weight on Ryan Day's shoulders? If he loses
a fifth straight time to his arc rival, the calls
for his job in Columbus will be deafening, even
with an 11 -1 record. And it's not just about
bragging rights. This has huge college football
playoff implications. Massive. A Michigan win
could send them to the Big Ten title game. And
it could force Ohio State, the number one team
in the country, to play in a... first -round
playoff game instead of getting that crucial
bye. So where is this game going to be won or
lost? It's always a battle in the trenches, but
I'm looking at the Ohio State secondary against
the Michigan wide receivers. If Ohio State can
prevent the big play downfield and force Michigan
to be one -dimensional, they have a great shot.
But if Michigan can run the ball, control the
clock, and keep that explosive Ohio State offense
on the sideline? Then it's a whole different
ball game. It's going to be fascinating to watch.
Meanwhile, in the SEC... The Lane Kiffin saga
is just completely dominating the coaching carousel.
It's a mess. He's being linked to the LSU job
and it's creating chaos for both schools. One
day there's a report he bought a house in Baton
Rouge. The next day he's demanding a new contract
from Ole Miss. And the timing is just terrible
with the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State this
week. Exactly. His team has to play their biggest
rival and they have no idea if their coach is
going to be there next year. It's a huge distraction.
And LSU needs to hire a coach before... the recruiting
dead period. This whole thing is hurting everybody
involved. And it could even impact the SEC championship
game. Georgia's sitting at number four, but they
could end up playing Ole Miss for the title.
Right. And if Kiffin and his team are distracted
by all this off -the -field drama, it could make
Georgia's path to the playoff even easier. The
coaching chaos has real Hanfield consequences.
All right, let's head a few other big stories
from the college world. Jeremiah Love at Notre
Dame. had a monster game. He was incredible.
He tied Jerome Bettis' school record with his
20th touchdown of the season. And get this, he
had 171 yards on just eight carries. Eight carries.
That's over 21 yards of pop. Just absurd efficiency.
In ACC, Miami is now the highest ranked team
at number 13. They're quietly putting together
a really solid season. On the flip side, Florida
State is in trouble. They're 5 -6. and they need
to win their last game just to become bowl eligible.
It's been a rough slide for them, and their loss
to NC State was just full of what were called
mind -boggling mistakes. Two muffed punts, questionable
late -game decisions. It was just ugly. But they
announced that Mike Norvell will be back as coach
through 2026. A big vote of confidence. They
clearly believe he can fix these execution issues.
And finally, the coaching carousel has its first
victim. Cal fired Justin Wilcox after they lost
the big game to Stanford. That was the last straw.
It guaranteed he would finish with a losing record
in conference play for the ninth straight season.
You just can't survive that, especially when
you lose to your rival who has an interim coach.
And a big recruiting win for Utah. They landed
a top dual threat quarterback for 2026, Kane
Archer. A massive get for them. He's a blue chip
prospect who joins what is already the highest
rated recruiting class in Utah history. It shows
they're serious about building an offensive powerhouse
out west. So to wrap it all up. Week 12 completely
reshaped the NFC. The Rams look like the clear
team to beat, and the Eagles suddenly look incredibly
vulnerable. And in the AFC, the Patriots are
back, which nobody saw coming, creating a real
race in the AFC East. And Miles Garrett is on
a historic pace, on track to completely rewrite
the SAC record book. And we head into Thanksgiving
with the game looming over college football,
with massive CSP implications, while the Lane
Kiffin circus continues to swirl around the SEC.
It all came down to a few critical plays and
a lot of critical decisions from the sideline.
It really did. And you think about all the huge
coaching calls this week. Chip Kelly getting
fired. Aaron Glenn's huge gamble on fourth down.
Mike Kafka's aggressive call that cost the Giants
the game. So I'll leave you with this to think
about. What single coaching decision from this
week, win or lose, do you think will have the
biggest long -term ripple effect for that franchise?
Something to chew on as we get ready for the
homestretch of the season.