1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,179 You know, when you look at a cruise 2 00:00:01,179 --> 00:00:03,080 ship brochure, you usually just 3 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:04,700 see the fantasy. Oh, absolutely. 4 00:00:04,860 --> 00:00:08,119 It is all water slides and infinity 5 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:09,599 pools and lobster tails. You'll 6 00:00:09,599 --> 00:00:10,779 put it up in a new country every 7 00:00:10,779 --> 00:00:13,660 morning. Exactly. It is the ultimate 8 00:00:13,660 --> 00:00:15,140 switch off your brain vacation. 9 00:00:15,580 --> 00:00:17,480 But then I start reading the actual 10 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:19,160 industry reports, the stuff that 11 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:20,500 really isn't meant for the passengers, 12 00:00:20,519 --> 00:00:22,739 and that glossy white paint starts 13 00:00:22,739 --> 00:00:24,280 to peel away pretty quickly. It 14 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:25,699 does. I mean, underneath the fantasy, 15 00:00:25,780 --> 00:00:28,019 you find a massive heavy industrial 16 00:00:28,019 --> 00:00:30,800 complex. Yeah. You have global economics 17 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,600 dictating where these billion dollar 18 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:34,960 assets move. You have marketing 19 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,420 teams just manufacturing cultural 20 00:00:37,420 --> 00:00:39,780 moments out of thin air. And you 21 00:00:39,780 --> 00:00:41,299 have high stakes engineering where 22 00:00:41,299 --> 00:00:43,219 safety protocols are literally life 23 00:00:43,219 --> 00:00:45,439 and death matters. And that is the 24 00:00:45,439 --> 00:00:47,020 duality we really want to get into 25 00:00:47,020 --> 00:00:48,979 today. Because for this deep dive, 26 00:00:49,100 --> 00:00:50,560 looking at the sources from February 27 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,359 2026, we have three distinct stories 28 00:00:54,359 --> 00:00:56,729 that perfectly capture that. entire 29 00:00:56,729 --> 00:00:58,350 spectrum. Right. We have a massive 30 00:00:58,350 --> 00:00:59,850 game of risk playing out on the 31 00:00:59,850 --> 00:01:02,130 global map, with Costa Cruises effectively 32 00:01:02,130 --> 00:01:04,010 admitting that the Asian market 33 00:01:04,010 --> 00:01:05,349 isn't what they hoped it would be. 34 00:01:05,590 --> 00:01:07,310 Which is a huge signal for the global 35 00:01:07,310 --> 00:01:08,870 economy, by the way, not just for 36 00:01:08,870 --> 00:01:10,390 travelers. Totally. And then we 37 00:01:10,390 --> 00:01:11,890 also have Princess Cruises betting 38 00:01:11,890 --> 00:01:14,189 the absolute farm on American history, 39 00:01:14,590 --> 00:01:17,629 trying to turn the US 250th anniversary 40 00:01:17,629 --> 00:01:20,349 into a reason to just flood Alaska 41 00:01:20,349 --> 00:01:22,969 with ships. Yeah, that one is fascinating. 42 00:01:23,230 --> 00:01:24,849 It really is. And finally, we have 43 00:01:24,849 --> 00:01:26,150 to talk about the machine itself. 44 00:01:26,439 --> 00:01:29,079 We need to dissect a pretty sobering 45 00:01:29,079 --> 00:01:31,019 interim report regarding a fatal 46 00:01:31,019 --> 00:01:32,859 elevator accident on the Arvia. 47 00:01:33,060 --> 00:01:35,180 That last one is tough, but it is 48 00:01:35,180 --> 00:01:37,060 so essential. It brings home the 49 00:01:37,060 --> 00:01:38,420 reality that these aren't just floating 50 00:01:38,420 --> 00:01:40,700 hotels. They are complex industrial 51 00:01:40,700 --> 00:01:43,859 sites operating 24 -7. Right. So 52 00:01:43,859 --> 00:01:45,239 our mission today is to understand 53 00:01:45,239 --> 00:01:46,819 how these floating cities balance 54 00:01:46,819 --> 00:01:48,980 the marketing fluff with the economic 55 00:01:48,980 --> 00:01:50,799 reality and of course the operational 56 00:01:50,799 --> 00:01:52,540 safety. And I want to start with 57 00:01:52,540 --> 00:01:53,819 this Costa Cruises story because 58 00:01:53,819 --> 00:01:56,219 the sheer scale of it is just mind 59 00:01:56,219 --> 00:01:57,379 -boggling. We are talking about 60 00:01:57,379 --> 00:01:59,280 the Costa Serena here. Yes, the 61 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,140 Costa Serena, a ship that has been 62 00:02:01,140 --> 00:02:02,760 a staple in the Asian market for 63 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:04,420 nearly a decade. Right, and the 64 00:02:04,420 --> 00:02:05,780 headline is that it is returning 65 00:02:05,780 --> 00:02:07,319 to the Mediterranean for the summer 66 00:02:07,319 --> 00:02:10,129 of 2027. But it is not just taking 67 00:02:10,129 --> 00:02:11,729 a quick shortcut through the Suez 68 00:02:11,729 --> 00:02:13,810 Canal to get there. This is a massive 69 00:02:13,810 --> 00:02:15,889 logistical odyssey. They're turning 70 00:02:15,889 --> 00:02:17,889 a standard repositioning cruise 71 00:02:17,889 --> 00:02:21,169 into a 65 -night world cruise starting 72 00:02:21,169 --> 00:02:24,710 in late 2026. It is a massive redeployment. 73 00:02:25,110 --> 00:02:26,310 But before we get excited about 74 00:02:26,310 --> 00:02:27,669 the itinerary, we really have to 75 00:02:27,669 --> 00:02:30,750 look at the why. Why move a 112 76 00:02:30,750 --> 00:02:33,050 ,000 -ton ship that holds nearly 77 00:02:33,050 --> 00:02:35,169 4 ,000 people from Asia to Europe? 78 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:36,979 I assume it is not just because 79 00:02:36,979 --> 00:02:38,199 the captain wanted some authentic 80 00:02:38,199 --> 00:02:40,599 pasta. Hardly. It is a yield game. 81 00:02:41,159 --> 00:02:42,460 The source material is very clear 82 00:02:42,460 --> 00:02:44,419 here. European demand is outpacing 83 00:02:44,419 --> 00:02:46,099 Asia's rebound. OK, break that down 84 00:02:46,099 --> 00:02:47,819 for me. Sure. So for a long time, 85 00:02:47,979 --> 00:02:49,599 the industry thought China and East 86 00:02:49,599 --> 00:02:51,340 Asia were the future golden goose 87 00:02:51,340 --> 00:02:52,620 of cruising. Everyone was sending 88 00:02:52,620 --> 00:02:54,080 their biggest, newest ships there. 89 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:55,960 Right, the untapped market. Exactly. 90 00:02:56,580 --> 00:02:58,319 But the post pandemic bounce back 91 00:02:58,319 --> 00:03:00,219 there has been slower and just more 92 00:03:00,219 --> 00:03:02,520 complicated than anticipated. Meanwhile, 93 00:03:02,740 --> 00:03:04,280 Europeans are traveling in absolute 94 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,599 droves right now. So Costa is looking 95 00:03:06,599 --> 00:03:08,379 at this massive asset sitting in 96 00:03:08,379 --> 00:03:11,039 Tokyo and thinking you are just 97 00:03:11,039 --> 00:03:12,560 not making enough money over here. 98 00:03:12,819 --> 00:03:14,740 Exactly. A cruise ship is a mobile 99 00:03:14,740 --> 00:03:16,919 asset. I mean, if a hotel in Tokyo 100 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:18,539 isn't filling rooms, you can't just 101 00:03:18,539 --> 00:03:20,060 move the building to Rome. Right. 102 00:03:20,250 --> 00:03:22,430 But with a ship, you can. Now, it 103 00:03:22,430 --> 00:03:24,310 costs a fortune in fuel and logistics 104 00:03:24,310 --> 00:03:26,430 to do it. But if the yield, which 105 00:03:26,430 --> 00:03:27,949 is the amount of money per passenger 106 00:03:27,949 --> 00:03:30,229 per day, is significantly higher 107 00:03:30,229 --> 00:03:32,370 in the Mediterranean, you move the 108 00:03:32,370 --> 00:03:34,990 ship. A 65 nights? That is a long 109 00:03:34,990 --> 00:03:36,389 time to be at sea. I mean, think 110 00:03:36,389 --> 00:03:38,069 about the logistics of that. You 111 00:03:38,069 --> 00:03:40,650 are taking a crew that is used to 112 00:03:40,650 --> 00:03:43,370 short, maybe four to five day regional 113 00:03:43,370 --> 00:03:46,490 cruises in Asia, and suddenly they 114 00:03:46,490 --> 00:03:47,770 are crossing the Pacific Ocean. 115 00:03:47,900 --> 00:03:49,460 It is a huge operational shift. 116 00:03:49,580 --> 00:03:51,080 You have to change literally everything. 117 00:03:51,099 --> 00:03:52,759 Like what? The food supply chains, 118 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,080 the entertainment on board, even 119 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:55,659 the currency they operate in. Yeah. 120 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:56,900 And you have to sell those cabins. 121 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:58,740 You cannot sail a ship that big 122 00:03:58,740 --> 00:04:00,099 empty for two months. It would be 123 00:04:00,099 --> 00:04:01,360 a financial disaster. And I guess 124 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:02,680 that is where this world cruise 125 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,180 marketing angle comes in. Yeah. 126 00:04:04,259 --> 00:04:05,099 Because I was looking at the route 127 00:04:05,099 --> 00:04:06,560 and it is fascinating. They depart 128 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:10,620 Tokyo on October 18th, 2026. They 129 00:04:10,620 --> 00:04:12,960 hit Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, 130 00:04:13,319 --> 00:04:15,159 which is standard up so far. But 131 00:04:15,159 --> 00:04:16,819 then they head into the deep Pacific. 132 00:04:18,180 --> 00:04:20,379 Fiji, Tonga, New Caledonia. And 133 00:04:20,379 --> 00:04:22,560 that leg is crucial. They are targeting 134 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,339 the bucket list traveler there. 135 00:04:24,439 --> 00:04:26,100 And then they hit Easter Island. 136 00:04:26,199 --> 00:04:27,560 That really stood out to me. You 137 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,319 don't see massive cruise ships stopping 138 00:04:29,319 --> 00:04:30,720 at Easter Island every Tuesday. 139 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:32,860 No, you definitely don't. It is 140 00:04:32,860 --> 00:04:35,240 remote. The infrastructure is incredibly 141 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,420 limited, and it requires a massive 142 00:04:37,420 --> 00:04:39,459 detour from standard shipping lanes. 143 00:04:40,139 --> 00:04:42,310 So why do it? including Easter Island, 144 00:04:42,529 --> 00:04:45,129 is a massive signal that this isn't 145 00:04:45,129 --> 00:04:46,910 just a ferry ride back to Europe. 146 00:04:47,050 --> 00:04:49,730 They are selling it as a true expedition. 147 00:04:50,089 --> 00:04:51,550 And for you listening, if you are 148 00:04:51,550 --> 00:04:52,889 a bit savvy about travel hacking, 149 00:04:53,310 --> 00:04:55,069 this is a classic repositioning 150 00:04:55,069 --> 00:04:56,410 scenario, right? Oh, absolutely. 151 00:04:56,649 --> 00:04:58,009 Usually these one -way trips are 152 00:04:58,009 --> 00:04:59,759 cheaper per day. because most people 153 00:04:59,759 --> 00:05:01,180 just can't take two months off work 154 00:05:01,180 --> 00:05:03,579 to sail from Tokyo to Buenos Aires. 155 00:05:03,879 --> 00:05:05,860 That is the secret menu item of 156 00:05:05,860 --> 00:05:07,899 the cruise world. Repositioning 157 00:05:07,899 --> 00:05:09,879 cruises offer the lowest cost per 158 00:05:09,879 --> 00:05:12,180 day of almost any sailing. Yeah, 159 00:05:12,300 --> 00:05:13,540 you get the same food, the same 160 00:05:13,540 --> 00:05:15,040 room, but because it is a one -way 161 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:16,500 ticket and involves a lot of sea 162 00:05:16,500 --> 00:05:19,339 days, the price drops. However, 163 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:21,439 Costa is trying to elevate this 164 00:05:21,439 --> 00:05:23,980 specific one by adding those exotic 165 00:05:23,980 --> 00:05:25,899 stops to keep the price point healthy. 166 00:05:26,410 --> 00:05:27,589 They don't want to give it away. 167 00:05:27,829 --> 00:05:28,629 Right. They need to make money on 168 00:05:28,629 --> 00:05:30,189 the transit. So they cross the Pacific, 169 00:05:30,470 --> 00:05:32,050 they hit South America, Tierra del 170 00:05:32,050 --> 00:05:34,449 Fuego, Cape Horn, Ushuaia, and they 171 00:05:34,449 --> 00:05:36,269 end up in Buenos Aires just in time 172 00:05:36,269 --> 00:05:37,810 for Christmas. Which is incredibly 173 00:05:37,810 --> 00:05:39,689 smart utilization of the asset. 174 00:05:39,790 --> 00:05:41,870 How so? Well, it is summer in the 175 00:05:41,870 --> 00:05:42,949 Southern Hemisphere at that point. 176 00:05:42,990 --> 00:05:44,470 So instead of rushing the ship to 177 00:05:44,470 --> 00:05:46,310 a freezing cold Europe in January, 178 00:05:46,750 --> 00:05:48,329 they keep it in South America for 179 00:05:48,329 --> 00:05:49,889 their first winter season there 180 00:05:49,889 --> 00:05:52,089 in 15 years. Oh, wow. 15 years. 181 00:05:52,170 --> 00:05:54,430 Yeah. They milk the asset in Brazil 182 00:05:54,430 --> 00:05:57,800 and Argentina until April 2027. 183 00:05:58,060 --> 00:06:00,720 And then finally, April 2027, they 184 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,000 cross the Atlantic to Italy. And 185 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:04,180 this is where the personality of 186 00:06:04,180 --> 00:06:05,839 the ship just completely transplants. 187 00:06:06,019 --> 00:06:08,019 It is a total Jekyll and Hyde situation. 188 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:09,699 It really is. Yeah. I mean, for 189 00:06:09,699 --> 00:06:11,399 six months, this ship is an explorer. 190 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,019 It is doing transoceanic voyages, 191 00:06:14,379 --> 00:06:16,040 stopping at remote islands, navigating 192 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,500 Cape Horn. But the second it hits 193 00:06:18,500 --> 00:06:21,100 the Mediterranean in May 2027, boom. 194 00:06:21,389 --> 00:06:23,649 It turns into a bus service. A vacation 195 00:06:23,649 --> 00:06:26,009 factory. Week -long cruises. Seven 196 00:06:26,009 --> 00:06:29,470 days. Toronto, Catania, Malta, Mykonos. 197 00:06:29,949 --> 00:06:31,689 Rinse and repeat. That is their 198 00:06:31,689 --> 00:06:33,730 bread and butter, high volume, high 199 00:06:33,730 --> 00:06:35,730 turnover that get passengers on, 200 00:06:36,110 --> 00:06:37,430 extract their vacation budget in 201 00:06:37,430 --> 00:06:38,850 seven days, get them off, and load 202 00:06:38,850 --> 00:06:41,029 the next 3 ,000 people. It is definitely 203 00:06:41,029 --> 00:06:42,569 less romantic than Easter Island, 204 00:06:42,709 --> 00:06:44,389 but it tays the bills. And it really 205 00:06:44,389 --> 00:06:45,829 shows the incredible flexibility 206 00:06:45,829 --> 00:06:47,790 of these modern vessels to switch 207 00:06:47,790 --> 00:06:49,870 gears from expedition to mass market 208 00:06:49,870 --> 00:06:51,689 instantly. Exactly. Speaking of 209 00:06:51,689 --> 00:06:52,949 mass market, let's pivot to North 210 00:06:52,949 --> 00:06:54,750 America. If Costa is playing a game 211 00:06:54,750 --> 00:06:57,310 of global strategy, Princess Cruises 212 00:06:57,310 --> 00:06:59,540 is playing a game of, well, Let's 213 00:06:59,540 --> 00:07:01,439 call it patriotic bingo. You are 214 00:07:01,439 --> 00:07:03,139 talking about the semi -quincentennial. 215 00:07:03,379 --> 00:07:04,680 I am still struggling to say that 216 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,339 word without tripping over it. The 217 00:07:06,339 --> 00:07:08,639 semi -quincentennial, the 250th 218 00:07:08,639 --> 00:07:09,759 anniversary of the United States 219 00:07:09,759 --> 00:07:12,259 in 2026. It is a mouthful for sure. 220 00:07:12,519 --> 00:07:13,839 But for marketing departments, it 221 00:07:13,839 --> 00:07:15,759 is absolute gold. Is it, though? 222 00:07:16,259 --> 00:07:18,680 I mean, I get it if you are a museum 223 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,819 in Philadelphia. But Princess is 224 00:07:21,819 --> 00:07:23,759 using this to sell cruises to Alaska. 225 00:07:25,100 --> 00:07:26,600 Am trying to find the connection 226 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,120 between the signing of the Declaration 227 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,579 of Independence and a glacier in 228 00:07:30,579 --> 00:07:32,560 Juneau It feels a bit tenuous to 229 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,600 me. Oh, it is manufactured relevance 230 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,639 pure and simple, but that doesn't 231 00:07:36,639 --> 00:07:38,290 mean it won't work The strategy 232 00:07:38,290 --> 00:07:40,750 here is cultural storytelling. Cultural 233 00:07:40,750 --> 00:07:42,269 storytelling. Yeah. They aren't 234 00:07:42,269 --> 00:07:43,750 saying George Washington slept here 235 00:07:43,750 --> 00:07:45,069 in Skagway. They are framing it 236 00:07:45,069 --> 00:07:46,709 as celebrating the landscapes that 237 00:07:46,709 --> 00:07:48,550 make America beautiful. It is a 238 00:07:48,550 --> 00:07:50,129 unifying theme to bundle their products 239 00:07:50,129 --> 00:07:52,350 under. And they are betting big 240 00:07:52,350 --> 00:07:53,850 on this bundle. I saw the numbers 241 00:07:53,850 --> 00:07:55,290 and the source princess is deploying 242 00:07:55,290 --> 00:07:57,230 eight ships to Alaska for the 2026 243 00:07:57,230 --> 00:07:59,939 season. Eight. That is a massive 244 00:07:59,939 --> 00:08:01,639 amount of capacity. It is a capacity 245 00:08:01,639 --> 00:08:03,779 race right now. They have 180 departures 246 00:08:03,779 --> 00:08:05,379 scheduled, and they're bringing 247 00:08:05,379 --> 00:08:07,079 in the Star Princess, which is their 248 00:08:07,079 --> 00:08:08,980 newest ship, to debut there in May 249 00:08:08,980 --> 00:08:11,399 2026. That feels risky to me. I 250 00:08:11,399 --> 00:08:12,819 mean, sure, it is a big anniversary, 251 00:08:13,100 --> 00:08:14,579 but are people really going to say, 252 00:08:14,839 --> 00:08:16,879 hey, it is America's 250th birthday, 253 00:08:16,959 --> 00:08:18,759 I need to go look at a whale? What 254 00:08:18,759 --> 00:08:20,680 if the whole patriotic tourism boom 255 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,060 is a bust? That is exactly the risk. 256 00:08:23,379 --> 00:08:25,019 If you put eight ships in one region, 257 00:08:25,060 --> 00:08:26,980 you are highly exposed. Yeah. If 258 00:08:26,980 --> 00:08:28,939 demand softens, or if the America 259 00:08:28,939 --> 00:08:31,600 250 hype falls flat, you have thousands 260 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,480 of empty cabins to fill every single 261 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,379 week. And that is why you see the 262 00:08:35,379 --> 00:08:36,879 product differentiation. They aren't 263 00:08:36,879 --> 00:08:38,360 just selling the boat ride. You 264 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:39,399 were talking about the cruise tours. 265 00:08:39,759 --> 00:08:42,279 Exactly. This is where Alaska is 266 00:08:42,279 --> 00:08:44,700 unique compared to, say, the Caribbean. 267 00:08:45,070 --> 00:08:47,470 you can't see the interior of the 268 00:08:47,470 --> 00:08:49,429 state from the water. Princess has 269 00:08:49,429 --> 00:08:51,750 a massive infrastructure of rail 270 00:08:51,750 --> 00:08:54,070 cars and wilderness lodges. They 271 00:08:54,070 --> 00:08:55,970 have a 15 -night national parks 272 00:08:55,970 --> 00:08:57,629 expedition tour. Which actually 273 00:08:57,629 --> 00:08:58,970 sounds incredible. You do a week 274 00:08:58,970 --> 00:09:00,190 on the boat, then you spend another 275 00:09:00,190 --> 00:09:02,769 week on land, riding trains to Denali 276 00:09:02,769 --> 00:09:04,659 and Wrangell -St. Elias. And that 277 00:09:04,659 --> 00:09:06,259 is where the marketing pivot actually 278 00:09:06,259 --> 00:09:08,659 works. If the theme is the great 279 00:09:08,659 --> 00:09:10,480 American landscape, then spending 280 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:12,539 a week deep in a national park actually 281 00:09:12,539 --> 00:09:14,179 fits the narrative perfectly. Oh, 282 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,000 I see. It elevates the product from 283 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:17,779 a standard cruise to a sort of grand 284 00:09:17,779 --> 00:09:20,279 tour of American heritage. And they're 285 00:09:20,279 --> 00:09:21,340 spreading this to the East Coast, 286 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,340 too, naturally. The majestic princess 287 00:09:23,340 --> 00:09:25,299 is doing the fall foliage, runs 288 00:09:25,299 --> 00:09:30,110 Boston, Newport, New York. Which, 289 00:09:30,149 --> 00:09:32,190 to be fair, makes a lot more historical 290 00:09:32,190 --> 00:09:34,350 sense. It does. That is the cradle 291 00:09:34,350 --> 00:09:35,710 of the revolution. That is a much 292 00:09:35,710 --> 00:09:38,149 easier sell for the 250th. But notice 293 00:09:38,149 --> 00:09:39,490 they are also including Hawaii. 294 00:09:39,690 --> 00:09:41,809 Right. The Emerald Princess is doing 295 00:09:41,809 --> 00:09:44,970 16 -night loops from LA to Hawaii. 296 00:09:45,309 --> 00:09:46,750 I guess Hawaii is technically America, 297 00:09:46,769 --> 00:09:48,570 so it counts for the party. It counts. 298 00:09:49,049 --> 00:09:50,889 But frankly, a 16 -day round trip 299 00:09:50,889 --> 00:09:52,750 from LA is a very specific product. 300 00:09:52,909 --> 00:09:55,149 It appeals to an older demographic 301 00:09:55,149 --> 00:09:57,169 who has the time and perhaps hates 302 00:09:57,169 --> 00:10:00,169 flying. It is a slow, lazy way to 303 00:10:00,169 --> 00:10:01,929 see the islands. Now, despite all 304 00:10:01,929 --> 00:10:03,090 this cultural storytelling, they 305 00:10:03,090 --> 00:10:04,610 aren't leaving it to chance. We 306 00:10:04,610 --> 00:10:06,450 have to mention the Princess Signature 307 00:10:06,450 --> 00:10:08,929 Sale. Ah, the urgency lever. Right. 308 00:10:08,950 --> 00:10:11,309 It runs through March 17th, 2026. 309 00:10:11,710 --> 00:10:13,990 Up to $600 off free third and fourth 310 00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:16,110 guests. That free guests bit is 311 00:10:16,110 --> 00:10:17,809 the tell, isn't it? It is a huge 312 00:10:17,809 --> 00:10:19,210 tell. It screams families. They 313 00:10:19,210 --> 00:10:20,610 need to fill those third and fourth 314 00:10:20,610 --> 00:10:21,909 bunks in the cabins to make the 315 00:10:21,909 --> 00:10:23,470 onboard revenue numbers work. Because 316 00:10:23,470 --> 00:10:25,110 the kids eat the food, but the parents 317 00:10:25,110 --> 00:10:27,529 buy the drinks and excursions. Exactly. 318 00:10:27,789 --> 00:10:28,990 It also tells us they are trying 319 00:10:28,990 --> 00:10:31,049 to lock in revenue now. early in 320 00:10:31,049 --> 00:10:32,490 the year, rather than waiting for 321 00:10:32,490 --> 00:10:34,070 the summer rush. They have eight 322 00:10:34,070 --> 00:10:35,590 ships to fill in Alaska. They cannot 323 00:10:35,590 --> 00:10:37,389 afford to be passive. So we have 324 00:10:37,389 --> 00:10:39,789 this shiny exterior. We have Costa 325 00:10:39,789 --> 00:10:41,370 chasing the Yield in Europe. We 326 00:10:41,370 --> 00:10:43,230 have Princess wrapping the flag 327 00:10:43,230 --> 00:10:44,649 around a glacier to sell tickets. 328 00:10:45,190 --> 00:10:47,269 It is all very strategic, very polished. 329 00:10:48,029 --> 00:10:50,929 But I want to pause here because 330 00:10:50,929 --> 00:10:53,149 it is so easy to get lost in the 331 00:10:53,149 --> 00:10:54,710 dream vacation narrative. It really 332 00:10:54,710 --> 00:10:56,830 is. But these ships are machines. 333 00:10:58,230 --> 00:11:00,230 complex, dangerous, industrial machines. 334 00:11:00,830 --> 00:11:02,710 And sometimes the machine fails. 335 00:11:03,370 --> 00:11:04,590 We need to talk about the Arvia. 336 00:11:05,009 --> 00:11:07,210 This is a pivot, but a really necessary 337 00:11:07,210 --> 00:11:08,610 one. We are looking at an interim 338 00:11:08,610 --> 00:11:10,210 report from the UK Marine Accident 339 00:11:10,210 --> 00:11:11,870 Investigation Branch, the MAIB. 340 00:11:12,029 --> 00:11:13,809 Right. It concerns a fatality on 341 00:11:13,809 --> 00:11:15,590 the Arvia, a P &O cruiseship, which, 342 00:11:15,649 --> 00:11:16,950 by the way, is under the same corporate 343 00:11:16,950 --> 00:11:18,649 umbrella as Costa and Princess. 344 00:11:18,789 --> 00:11:20,110 And this happened back in October 345 00:11:20,110 --> 00:11:22,610 2025. And just like the Costa ship, 346 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,200 This was during a repositioning 347 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:25,700 cruise, southampton to Tenerife. 348 00:11:25,879 --> 00:11:27,360 This ship was full of passengers, 349 00:11:27,639 --> 00:11:29,080 likely sleeping or getting early 350 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,460 coffee. But deep in the ship's core, 351 00:11:31,820 --> 00:11:34,299 a tragedy was unfolding. An electrical 352 00:11:34,299 --> 00:11:36,019 technician was crushed while working 353 00:11:36,019 --> 00:11:37,779 on a passenger elevator. I read 354 00:11:37,779 --> 00:11:40,159 this report, and the technical details 355 00:11:40,159 --> 00:11:42,679 are chilling because of how, well, 356 00:11:42,779 --> 00:11:44,659 how routine it all seemed. It wasn't 357 00:11:44,659 --> 00:11:46,639 an explosion or a storm. It was 358 00:11:46,639 --> 00:11:48,179 a logic error. A logic error is 359 00:11:48,179 --> 00:11:49,299 the perfect way to describe it. 360 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:50,679 We need to walk through this carefully. 361 00:11:51,279 --> 00:11:53,740 It was just before 6 .0 a .m., the 362 00:11:53,740 --> 00:11:55,720 technician and the senior electro 363 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:57,039 -technical officer, they call it 364 00:11:57,039 --> 00:11:59,039 the CETO, were testing an elevator 365 00:11:59,039 --> 00:12:00,980 after overnight repairs. Okay, so 366 00:12:00,980 --> 00:12:02,620 picture this for the listener. The 367 00:12:02,620 --> 00:12:05,000 elevator car is at deck 11. The 368 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:06,179 technician leaves the car and goes 369 00:12:06,179 --> 00:12:07,679 up to deck 14 to check the shaft 370 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,919 from above. He opens the doors at 371 00:12:09,919 --> 00:12:12,080 deck 14 to look down. The CETO is 372 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:13,940 still down at deck 11. Here is where 373 00:12:13,940 --> 00:12:15,919 the system failed the human. The 374 00:12:15,919 --> 00:12:17,200 CEDAW steps out of the elevator 375 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,259 car at Deck 11. And when he steps 376 00:12:19,259 --> 00:12:21,120 out, the elevator car doors close. 377 00:12:21,620 --> 00:12:23,179 And the shaft doors at Deck 11 close. 378 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:25,039 To you and me, that is just doors 379 00:12:25,039 --> 00:12:26,960 closing. But to the elevator's computer, 380 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:28,799 that means something very specific. 381 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:30,340 Think of it like a microwave. You 382 00:12:30,340 --> 00:12:31,740 know how a microwave won't start 383 00:12:31,740 --> 00:12:33,740 if the door is open? Yeah. That 384 00:12:33,740 --> 00:12:35,519 is a safety interlock. The moment 385 00:12:35,519 --> 00:12:36,799 you close the door, the microwave 386 00:12:36,799 --> 00:12:38,799 says, OK, my circuit is complete. 387 00:12:38,879 --> 00:12:41,139 I am safe to run. The elevator has 388 00:12:41,139 --> 00:12:43,519 the exact same system. When those 389 00:12:43,519 --> 00:12:45,320 doors close at Deck 11, the report 390 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,100 says the safety interlocks were 391 00:12:47,100 --> 00:12:49,000 restored. So the computer looks 392 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,960 at its sensors and says, all doors 393 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,500 closed, system is safe, ready for 394 00:12:53,500 --> 00:12:55,740 orders. Exactly. It has no eyes. 395 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:57,440 It doesn't know there is a technician 396 00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:59,179 hanging into the shaft three floors 397 00:12:59,179 --> 00:13:01,399 up at Deck 14. It just knows the 398 00:13:01,399 --> 00:13:02,700 circuit is closed. And because the 399 00:13:02,700 --> 00:13:04,059 system thought it was ready, It 400 00:13:04,059 --> 00:13:05,860 answered a call. A stored call. 401 00:13:06,259 --> 00:13:08,279 Someone, or maybe a system test 402 00:13:08,279 --> 00:13:09,799 command, had called that elevator. 403 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:11,639 Since the interlock was now safe, 404 00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:13,559 the brakes released and the car 405 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:15,299 shot upward. And the technician 406 00:13:15,299 --> 00:13:17,620 was at Deck 14. The car came up 407 00:13:17,620 --> 00:13:19,379 from Deck 11. He didn't stand a 408 00:13:19,379 --> 00:13:21,360 chance. No. He was tracked between 409 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:22,879 the moving car and the shaft wall. 410 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:25,159 A medical emergency was declared 411 00:13:25,159 --> 00:13:28,139 at 6 .02 a .m. He was pronounced 412 00:13:28,139 --> 00:13:30,149 dead just five minutes later. It 413 00:13:30,149 --> 00:13:32,169 is devastating, and the ship had 414 00:13:32,169 --> 00:13:34,289 to immediately divert to A Coruña, 415 00:13:34,370 --> 00:13:37,049 Spain to recover the body. But what 416 00:13:37,049 --> 00:13:38,909 makes this even heavier is that 417 00:13:38,909 --> 00:13:41,149 the MAIB report notes this isn't 418 00:13:41,149 --> 00:13:42,450 the first time something like this 419 00:13:42,450 --> 00:13:44,309 has happened. They referenced a 420 00:13:44,309 --> 00:13:46,070 similar death on the Carnival Ecstasy 421 00:13:46,070 --> 00:13:48,659 in 2015. That is the part that really 422 00:13:48,659 --> 00:13:50,539 hurts. That was a decade ago. It 423 00:13:50,539 --> 00:13:52,639 raises a massive systemic question 424 00:13:52,639 --> 00:13:54,980 about the entire industry. Why are 425 00:13:54,980 --> 00:13:57,000 we still relying on safety protocols 426 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:58,840 that allow this to happen? It seems 427 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:00,220 like a conflict between the smart 428 00:14:00,220 --> 00:14:02,730 ship and the human worker. The ship 429 00:14:02,730 --> 00:14:04,889 is designed for efficiency, to keep 430 00:14:04,889 --> 00:14:06,629 5 ,000 people moving seamlessly. 431 00:14:06,990 --> 00:14:08,730 It is programmed to run at all costs. 432 00:14:09,210 --> 00:14:10,830 Precisely. These ships are essentially 433 00:14:10,830 --> 00:14:12,649 cities. The ARFA year holds over 434 00:14:12,649 --> 00:14:14,250 6 ,000 people, including the crew. 435 00:14:14,610 --> 00:14:16,230 To keep a city that dense moving, 436 00:14:16,370 --> 00:14:17,950 you need heavy, heavy automation. 437 00:14:18,129 --> 00:14:19,750 Right. But maintenance is inherently 438 00:14:19,750 --> 00:14:22,090 manual. It is human. When a human 439 00:14:22,090 --> 00:14:23,889 enters a machine designed for pure 440 00:14:23,889 --> 00:14:26,370 automation, the risk skyrockets. 441 00:14:26,610 --> 00:14:27,690 The investigation is looking at 442 00:14:27,690 --> 00:14:28,929 why the interlocks were allowed 443 00:14:28,929 --> 00:14:30,750 to reset. Like, why wasn't there 444 00:14:30,750 --> 00:14:32,470 a physical lockout key that prevented 445 00:14:32,470 --> 00:14:34,090 the elevator from moving no matter 446 00:14:34,090 --> 00:14:35,710 what the doors did? That is the 447 00:14:35,710 --> 00:14:37,570 standard in many industrial settings 448 00:14:37,570 --> 00:14:41,690 on land. Lockout, tagout. You physically 449 00:14:41,690 --> 00:14:43,509 cut the power and lock it so the 450 00:14:43,509 --> 00:14:45,230 machine cannot turn on. Right. You 451 00:14:45,230 --> 00:14:46,730 take the key with you. Exactly. 452 00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:48,570 The fact that the system could reset 453 00:14:48,570 --> 00:14:50,289 itself while a man was physically 454 00:14:50,289 --> 00:14:52,549 in the shaft suggests a major gap 455 00:14:52,549 --> 00:14:54,190 between the operational pressure 456 00:14:54,190 --> 00:14:56,269 to keep things running and the basic 457 00:14:56,269 --> 00:14:58,179 safety of the crew. It really forces 458 00:14:58,179 --> 00:14:59,759 you to look at the industry differently. 459 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:01,480 I mean, we spent the first half 460 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:02,879 of this deep dive talking about 461 00:15:02,879 --> 00:15:04,580 cultural storytelling and world 462 00:15:04,580 --> 00:15:06,840 cruises. That is the product. That 463 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:08,600 is what we buy as consumers. But 464 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:10,139 the elevator accident is the hidden 465 00:15:10,139 --> 00:15:11,879 cost of doing business at the scale. 466 00:15:12,169 --> 00:15:14,450 So when we zoom out and look at 467 00:15:14,450 --> 00:15:15,809 all three of these stories from 468 00:15:15,809 --> 00:15:18,830 February 2026, what are we actually 469 00:15:18,830 --> 00:15:20,710 seeing here? We are seeing a mature, 470 00:15:20,750 --> 00:15:22,590 massive industry that is constantly 471 00:15:22,590 --> 00:15:25,149 optimizing itself. Costa is optimizing 472 00:15:25,149 --> 00:15:27,049 for yield moving ships across the 473 00:15:27,049 --> 00:15:28,970 globe to where the money is. Princess 474 00:15:28,970 --> 00:15:31,029 is optimizing for relevance, using 475 00:15:31,029 --> 00:15:32,809 a national holiday to fill cabins 476 00:15:32,809 --> 00:15:34,909 in Alaska. And the Arvia story shows 477 00:15:34,909 --> 00:15:36,330 us what happens when we optimize 478 00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:37,769 for efficiency in a way that might 479 00:15:37,769 --> 00:15:40,450 leave fatal safety gaps. It is all 480 00:15:40,450 --> 00:15:42,210 about scale, isn't it? These aren't 481 00:15:42,210 --> 00:15:43,809 just boats anymore. They are floating 482 00:15:43,809 --> 00:15:45,929 logistics centers. They really are. 483 00:15:46,330 --> 00:15:47,669 And for you listening, the next 484 00:15:47,669 --> 00:15:49,730 time you book a cruise, realize 485 00:15:49,730 --> 00:15:51,330 that you are entering a system, 486 00:15:52,169 --> 00:15:56,009 a highly tuned global system. Whether 487 00:15:56,009 --> 00:15:58,409 you are snatching up a cheap repositioning 488 00:15:58,409 --> 00:16:00,730 fare or buying a luxury suite for 489 00:16:00,730 --> 00:16:03,509 the US 250th anniversary, you are 490 00:16:03,509 --> 00:16:05,029 a data point in that optimization 491 00:16:05,029 --> 00:16:06,509 engine. Absolutely. And it leaves 492 00:16:06,509 --> 00:16:07,850 me with a pretty provocative thought 493 00:16:07,850 --> 00:16:10,429 to chew on. We are building these 494 00:16:10,429 --> 00:16:12,049 ships bigger and bigger. The Star 495 00:16:12,049 --> 00:16:13,549 Princess is going to be massive. 496 00:16:13,909 --> 00:16:16,649 The RV is already a giant. As we 497 00:16:16,649 --> 00:16:18,690 pack 6 ,000, 7 ,000 people onto 498 00:16:18,690 --> 00:16:20,769 a single haul, are we reaching a 499 00:16:20,769 --> 00:16:22,409 point where we need to stop regulating 500 00:16:22,409 --> 00:16:24,809 them like maritime vessels and start 501 00:16:24,809 --> 00:16:25,970 regulating them like industrial 502 00:16:25,970 --> 00:16:28,350 cities? That is the big debate right 503 00:16:28,350 --> 00:16:30,009 now because the complexity of the 504 00:16:30,009 --> 00:16:31,909 machine might just be outpacing 505 00:16:31,909 --> 00:16:33,450 the rule book we use to run it. 506 00:16:33,470 --> 00:16:35,309 A sobering thought to end on, but 507 00:16:35,309 --> 00:16:37,090 an important one. We'll be watching 508 00:16:37,090 --> 00:16:38,909 to see where Costa ends up and how 509 00:16:38,909 --> 00:16:41,070 that Alaska season shakes out. Thanks 510 00:16:41,070 --> 00:16:42,769 for diving deep with us today. Always 511 00:16:42,769 --> 00:16:44,730 a pleasure. Stay curious, and we 512 00:16:44,730 --> 00:16:45,669 will catch you on the next one.