WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.879 Okay, so I want you to open your calendar app 00:00:01.879 --> 00:00:04.540 right now. Just go ahead. I will wait. Right. 00:00:05.000 --> 00:00:09.839 Now, try to schedule a meeting for November 2037. 00:00:10.960 --> 00:00:12.759 Yeah, I don't think my thumb actually has the 00:00:12.759 --> 00:00:14.919 stamina to scroll that far. Right. I mean, I 00:00:14.919 --> 00:00:16.420 don't even know what I'm having for dinner tonight, 00:00:16.559 --> 00:00:18.879 let alone where I'll be in over a decade. Exactly. 00:00:19.140 --> 00:00:21.440 It feels totally like science fiction, doesn't 00:00:21.440 --> 00:00:23.440 it? If you told me to plan my life for 2037, 00:00:23.519 --> 00:00:26.239 I would just laugh. Oh, yeah. But for the titans 00:00:26.239 --> 00:00:29.079 of the travel industry, 2037 is already happening. 00:00:29.260 --> 00:00:33.179 It's locked in. It is. So today in our deep dive, 00:00:33.200 --> 00:00:36.259 we are looking at the concept of future proofing 00:00:36.259 --> 00:00:38.320 in the cruise world. And we are just talking 00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:40.840 about, you know, planning next season's buffet 00:00:40.840 --> 00:00:43.619 menu. No, definitely not. We are talking about 00:00:43.619 --> 00:00:46.659 multi -billion dollar bets on the very distant 00:00:46.659 --> 00:00:49.509 future. It really gives you a sense of the sheer 00:00:49.509 --> 00:00:51.869 scale these companies operate on. I mean, we 00:00:51.869 --> 00:00:54.450 are coming off a period where everyone was just 00:00:54.450 --> 00:00:56.609 trying to survive the pandemic. Just managing 00:00:56.609 --> 00:01:01.030 cash flow week to week. Exactly. But now, the 00:01:01.030 --> 00:01:03.890 checkbooks are completely wide open. And we're 00:01:03.890 --> 00:01:07.870 seeing a shift that goes way beyond just regular 00:01:07.870 --> 00:01:10.650 growth. It's becoming what we call a war for 00:01:10.650 --> 00:01:13.189 capacity. A war for capacity. Yeah. I mean, that 00:01:13.189 --> 00:01:14.969 sounds a little bit dramatic for the vacation 00:01:14.969 --> 00:01:17.260 business, doesn't it? It sounds dramatic. But 00:01:17.260 --> 00:01:19.400 in a business sense, it's actually quite literal. 00:01:19.560 --> 00:01:21.799 It's a scramble to secure two major things, a 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:24.200 place to go and the physical steel to actually 00:01:24.200 --> 00:01:26.200 take people there. Wow. Because if you don't 00:01:26.200 --> 00:01:28.680 lock in your slot at a shipyard right now, you 00:01:28.680 --> 00:01:31.159 might not get a new ship until the 2040s. That 00:01:31.159 --> 00:01:34.299 is wild. The supply of places that can build 00:01:34.299 --> 00:01:37.379 these massive things is incredibly inelastic. 00:01:37.620 --> 00:01:39.819 OK, so to guide us through this insane timeline, 00:01:39.959 --> 00:01:42.359 we have two really massive stories from our source 00:01:42.359 --> 00:01:45.319 stack today. First, we have ADA Cruises. That's 00:01:45.319 --> 00:01:47.200 the big German brand. Right, the German brand. 00:01:47.560 --> 00:01:50.319 They are making some very strategic moves into 00:01:50.319 --> 00:01:54.000 the Caribbean and the U .S. East Coast for late 00:01:54.000 --> 00:01:57.219 2027. Yes. That is what we'd call the destination 00:01:57.219 --> 00:01:58.780 play. It's all about securing the footprint. 00:01:58.980 --> 00:02:00.540 And then on the other side, we have the hardware 00:02:00.540 --> 00:02:03.680 play. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, or NCLH, 00:02:04.040 --> 00:02:06.739 they just dropped a bombshell order for three 00:02:06.739 --> 00:02:09.939 massive new ships. But the delivery dates are 00:02:09.939 --> 00:02:13.180 what caught my eye 2036 and 2037. Which brings 00:02:13.180 --> 00:02:15.460 us right back to that mind boggling timeline 00:02:15.460 --> 00:02:17.620 you mentioned. Exactly. It's basically a pincer 00:02:17.620 --> 00:02:20.039 movement. Yeah. Securing the destination on one 00:02:20.039 --> 00:02:22.500 end and securing the vessel on the other. So 00:02:22.500 --> 00:02:24.219 let's start with the near future. Well, relatively 00:02:24.219 --> 00:02:28.129 near 2027. Sure. Ada cruises. They are making 00:02:28.129 --> 00:02:30.430 headlines because of a very specific date, November 00:02:30.430 --> 00:02:34.629 15th, 2027. Why is everyone in the industry circling 00:02:34.629 --> 00:02:36.849 this date? It seems like just another Tuesday 00:02:36.849 --> 00:02:39.889 on a cruise itinerary. It is definitely not just 00:02:39.889 --> 00:02:42.349 another Tuesday for the strategists over at Carnival 00:02:42.349 --> 00:02:45.750 Corporation. That is the day ADA makes its grand 00:02:45.750 --> 00:02:48.930 debut at Celebration Key. Celebration Key. OK, 00:02:48.949 --> 00:02:50.830 this is the new private destination we've been 00:02:50.830 --> 00:02:53.110 hearing so much about. Exactly. It's situated 00:02:53.110 --> 00:02:55.750 on Grand Baham Island. It opened back in mid 00:02:55.750 --> 00:02:58.689 -2025. developed by Carnival Corporation. OK. 00:02:58.870 --> 00:03:01.490 Now here's the essential context. Ada is a German 00:03:01.490 --> 00:03:04.729 line catering almost exclusively to German speakers, 00:03:04.729 --> 00:03:08.469 but it falls under the massive Carnival Corporation 00:03:08.469 --> 00:03:12.110 umbrella. And until now, we've mostly associated 00:03:12.110 --> 00:03:15.050 Celebration Key with Carnival Cruise Line and 00:03:15.050 --> 00:03:17.810 Princess Cruises. the American -focused brands. 00:03:18.289 --> 00:03:21.289 Exactly. So explain the logic here. Why send 00:03:21.289 --> 00:03:24.009 a ship full of German tourists to a destination 00:03:24.009 --> 00:03:26.169 built primarily for the American mass market? 00:03:26.389 --> 00:03:28.449 Isn't that a bit of a culture clash waiting to 00:03:28.449 --> 00:03:31.430 happen? It's a really fascinating test of the 00:03:31.430 --> 00:03:34.169 multi -brand private hub strategy. Okay. Think 00:03:34.169 --> 00:03:37.460 of it purely as asset utilization. Carnival Corporation 00:03:37.460 --> 00:03:39.460 has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into 00:03:39.460 --> 00:03:42.039 building this island hub. If they only use it 00:03:42.039 --> 00:03:44.180 for their American brands, it sits empty on certain 00:03:44.180 --> 00:03:46.379 days. Or they just leave money on the table. 00:03:46.599 --> 00:03:50.620 By plugging ADA into that open slot, they're 00:03:50.620 --> 00:03:53.520 leveraging this massive, expensive asset across 00:03:53.520 --> 00:03:56.180 a completely different customer base. It's interchangeable 00:03:56.180 --> 00:03:59.080 parts. Precisely. It is highly efficient. But 00:03:59.080 --> 00:04:01.120 you're right to wonder about the actual guest 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:03.400 experience. Yeah, because these private destinations 00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:06.710 are usually so tailored. Very tailored. The food, 00:04:06.830 --> 00:04:10.710 the music, the signage. Bringing Ada there means 00:04:10.710 --> 00:04:13.449 Carnival believes their infrastructure is flexible 00:04:13.449 --> 00:04:16.170 enough to handle a German demographic. Who might 00:04:16.170 --> 00:04:18.550 expect totally different things than a Carnival 00:04:18.550 --> 00:04:21.449 passenger coming out of Florida, expanding the 00:04:21.449 --> 00:04:24.110 menu, so to speak. Now let's look at the actual 00:04:24.110 --> 00:04:27.589 ship doing the honors. It's the Ada Luna. And 00:04:27.589 --> 00:04:30.269 this isn't just a quick pop over from Miami either. 00:04:30.370 --> 00:04:34.160 This is part of a 14 night. repositioning crews. 00:04:34.459 --> 00:04:37.740 Classic repo crews moving the ship from its fall 00:04:37.740 --> 00:04:40.040 home down to his winter home. Now usually when 00:04:40.040 --> 00:04:42.920 I hear repo crews I think cheap fares and like 00:04:42.920 --> 00:04:45.720 six days of just staring at the open ocean. Right. 00:04:45.939 --> 00:04:48.579 But looking at the specific itinerary this seems 00:04:48.579 --> 00:04:50.579 really different. It's a very different. ADA 00:04:50.579 --> 00:04:54.480 is actively trying to elevate the repo from just 00:04:54.480 --> 00:04:56.980 a logistical necessity into a premium product. 00:04:57.040 --> 00:04:59.860 So the route starts November 5, 2027 in New York 00:04:59.860 --> 00:05:02.259 City. Then it heads down to La Romana in the 00:05:02.259 --> 00:05:04.040 Dominican Republic. But the stops in between, 00:05:04.180 --> 00:05:06.600 you've got Bermuda, Miami, Grand Turk, Arroyo 00:05:06.600 --> 00:05:08.839 Barrel. And then the big debut at Celebration 00:05:08.839 --> 00:05:11.699 Key. Right. It's a really smart itinerary. because 00:05:11.699 --> 00:05:14.600 it creates a cohesive narrative. You get the 00:05:14.600 --> 00:05:16.800 urban city break in New York, the Atlantic crossing 00:05:16.800 --> 00:05:19.279 over to Bermuda, and then the full Caribbean 00:05:19.279 --> 00:05:21.920 beach experience. It totally mitigates the boredom 00:05:21.920 --> 00:05:24.139 of the open ocean. Absolutely. But wait, we have 00:05:24.139 --> 00:05:26.660 to rewind a bit here, because how the Adaluna 00:05:26.660 --> 00:05:28.899 gets to New York in the first place is where 00:05:28.899 --> 00:05:31.720 it gets really interesting for the adventure 00:05:31.720 --> 00:05:33.879 geeks out there. You were talking about the transatlantic 00:05:33.879 --> 00:05:36.319 crossing coming over from Germany. I am. So the 00:05:36.319 --> 00:05:40.740 ship leaves Hamburg on September 3, 2027. Usually 00:05:40.740 --> 00:05:43.839 a transatlantic is just endless ocean days. Maybe 00:05:43.839 --> 00:05:45.759 a stop in the Azores if you're lucky. If the 00:05:45.759 --> 00:05:48.459 river holds, yeah. But this one goes via Reykjavik 00:05:48.459 --> 00:05:51.420 in Iceland. And then, and this is the part that 00:05:51.420 --> 00:05:54.649 really got me. It has a Greenland routing. That 00:05:54.649 --> 00:05:57.689 is a major operational flex by ADA. They are 00:05:57.689 --> 00:06:00.370 sailing through Prince Christian Sound and stopping 00:06:00.370 --> 00:06:03.430 at Nanortalic. Now I've seen photos of Prince 00:06:03.430 --> 00:06:05.889 Christian Sound. It's stunning. It looks incredible, 00:06:05.930 --> 00:06:07.970 but isn't that a massive logistical nightmare 00:06:07.970 --> 00:06:10.310 for a standard cruise ship? It is definitely 00:06:10.310 --> 00:06:13.370 not a casual Sunday drive. Prince Christian Sound 00:06:13.370 --> 00:06:16.850 is a very narrow, jagged, fjord passage. You've 00:06:16.850 --> 00:06:20.009 got glaciers on both sides. Wow. It is highly 00:06:20.009 --> 00:06:23.069 weather dependent, ice dependent, and it requires 00:06:23.069 --> 00:06:26.350 incredibly precise pilotage. You do not just 00:06:26.350 --> 00:06:28.730 send a ship there on a whim. So why do it? Why 00:06:28.730 --> 00:06:31.310 take that massive risk on a repositioning voyage? 00:06:31.490 --> 00:06:34.230 Because it completely solves the boring sea day 00:06:34.230 --> 00:06:37.129 problem. Ah. If you can market the crossing as 00:06:37.129 --> 00:06:39.949 an expedition light experience, seeing glaciers, 00:06:40.009 --> 00:06:42.910 navigating a tight fjord, you can charge a premium. 00:06:43.110 --> 00:06:45.310 You turn a delivery trip into a bucket list trip. 00:06:45.509 --> 00:06:47.850 Exactly. It signals that ADA isn't just moving 00:06:47.850 --> 00:06:50.410 metal around the map. They're actively chasing 00:06:50.410 --> 00:06:52.389 the adventure traveler. It creates scarcity, 00:06:52.670 --> 00:06:55.009 too. You can only really do this route once or 00:06:55.009 --> 00:06:57.939 twice a year. Precisely. OK, so the ship arrives 00:06:57.939 --> 00:07:01.819 in New York, fall 2027. Ada Luna is running cruises 00:07:01.819 --> 00:07:05.019 out of the city. And I spotted a quirk in the 00:07:05.019 --> 00:07:06.860 itinerary planning here from our sources that 00:07:06.860 --> 00:07:08.959 I thought was pretty clever. Halifax and Boston 00:07:08.959 --> 00:07:11.779 combination. Yes. Usually on these shorter runs 00:07:11.779 --> 00:07:13.459 up north, you get one or the other just because 00:07:13.459 --> 00:07:15.819 of the distance. Right. But for the first time 00:07:15.819 --> 00:07:20.360 in 2027, ADA is offering a new eight day itinerary 00:07:20.360 --> 00:07:23.560 that hits both Halifax and Boston on the exact 00:07:23.560 --> 00:07:26.060 same sailing. That is a very aggressive schedule. 00:07:26.259 --> 00:07:29.560 Is it? Oh, yeah. To hit both those ports in an 00:07:29.560 --> 00:07:33.240 eight day window means you are moving fast. But 00:07:33.240 --> 00:07:35.220 it makes a lot of sense if you think about their 00:07:35.220 --> 00:07:38.379 core target demographic. The German guests. Right. 00:07:38.459 --> 00:07:40.139 If you were a German guest flying all the way 00:07:40.139 --> 00:07:42.680 to New York or taking that epic ship crossing 00:07:42.680 --> 00:07:44.639 we just talked about, you don't want to choose 00:07:44.639 --> 00:07:47.399 between the history of Boston and the maritime 00:07:47.399 --> 00:07:49.839 vibe of Halifax. You want the greatest hits album. 00:07:50.120 --> 00:07:53.600 Exactly. ADA is tightening up the logistics to 00:07:53.600 --> 00:07:55.990 give them everything in one single week. It's 00:07:55.990 --> 00:07:58.069 just really efficient sightseeing. And the sources 00:07:58.069 --> 00:08:00.230 actually mention that ADA is specifically framing 00:08:00.230 --> 00:08:02.610 this as a way for German guests to reach North 00:08:02.610 --> 00:08:05.189 America without flying. You take the boat from 00:08:05.189 --> 00:08:07.870 Hamburg to New York, do your season there, maybe 00:08:07.870 --> 00:08:10.790 stay for the Caribbean run. Absolutely no airplanes 00:08:10.790 --> 00:08:13.509 involved. And that no -fly option is becoming 00:08:13.509 --> 00:08:15.899 increasingly valuable in the market. We are seeing 00:08:15.899 --> 00:08:19.000 a real rise in travelers who are either sustainability 00:08:19.000 --> 00:08:21.699 conscious and want to lower their carbon footprint. 00:08:21.980 --> 00:08:24.339 Or frankly, people who just hate the hassle of 00:08:24.339 --> 00:08:27.040 modern airports. Exactly. ADA is capitalizing 00:08:27.040 --> 00:08:29.779 on that friction. Amen to that. If I could avoid 00:08:29.779 --> 00:08:32.559 airport security for the rest of my life, I would 00:08:32.559 --> 00:08:34.940 in a heartbeat. Same here. So after New York, 00:08:35.059 --> 00:08:38.309 ADA Luna heads south for the winter. And it's 00:08:38.309 --> 00:08:41.029 not alone down there. No, this is where we really 00:08:41.029 --> 00:08:43.429 see the regional dominance play. Once Edaluna 00:08:43.429 --> 00:08:46.610 reaches the Caribbean for the winter 2027 to 00:08:46.610 --> 00:08:50.149 2028 season, it joins two other ships, the Edabella 00:08:50.149 --> 00:08:53.610 and the Edaprima. Three ships? Three ships. That 00:08:53.610 --> 00:08:55.529 seems like a lot of capacity for a German -speaking 00:08:55.529 --> 00:08:57.269 line in the Caribbean. Are they worried about 00:08:57.269 --> 00:08:59.990 oversaturation at all? It's a calculated risk. 00:09:00.159 --> 00:09:02.320 For sure. It shows a massive amount of confidence 00:09:02.320 --> 00:09:04.919 that the German market really wants the Caribbean 00:09:04.919 --> 00:09:07.559 winter sun. Right. But it also creates a localized 00:09:07.559 --> 00:09:10.279 network. If you have three ships in the region, 00:09:10.379 --> 00:09:13.139 you have operational redundancy. Like a safety 00:09:13.139 --> 00:09:15.379 net. Exactly. If something goes wrong with one 00:09:15.379 --> 00:09:17.840 ship, you have resources and support nearby. 00:09:18.240 --> 00:09:20.759 But playing devil's advocate here, what if I'm 00:09:20.759 --> 00:09:22.919 a German guest? I want a winter break, but I 00:09:22.919 --> 00:09:25.690 just hate the Caribbean. Maybe I'm tired of palm 00:09:25.690 --> 00:09:28.330 trees and high humidity. Well, ADA has hedged 00:09:28.330 --> 00:09:30.809 against that, too. They're promoting these winter 00:09:30.809 --> 00:09:33.830 break alternatives. OK. Long -haul voyages starting 00:09:33.830 --> 00:09:36.529 round -trip from Germany. For example, the Adamar 00:09:36.529 --> 00:09:39.269 is doing a 48 -day cruise to Brazil and South 00:09:39.269 --> 00:09:42.289 America. 48 days? That is a sabbatical, not a 00:09:42.289 --> 00:09:44.370 vacation. It is long. Who actually has the time 00:09:44.370 --> 00:09:47.950 for that? Retirees, mostly. Digital nomads. People 00:09:47.950 --> 00:09:51.419 with a lot of accrued leave. It's a completely 00:09:51.419 --> 00:09:53.320 different market segment. I see. Or there's a 00:09:53.320 --> 00:09:55.820 21 -day run to the Azores and Morocco. Yeah. 00:09:56.100 --> 00:09:58.240 The point is they are diversifying their portfolio, 00:09:58.340 --> 00:10:00.600 so they aren't 100 % dependent on the Caribbean 00:10:00.600 --> 00:10:03.139 working out. OK, so that is the software side 00:10:03.139 --> 00:10:06.279 of things, the deployment. ADA is solving the 00:10:06.279 --> 00:10:09.440 puzzle of where to go in 2027. Right. But now 00:10:09.440 --> 00:10:11.559 let's shift over to the hardware, the actual 00:10:11.559 --> 00:10:14.179 steel, because Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings 00:10:14.179 --> 00:10:16.100 is trying to solve the puzzle of what they will 00:10:16.100 --> 00:10:20.299 sail in 2037. Yes. NCLH, which is the parent 00:10:20.299 --> 00:10:23.480 company of Norwegian, Oceania, and Regent Seven 00:10:23.480 --> 00:10:26.620 Seas, they just signed a massive deal with the 00:10:26.620 --> 00:10:29.639 Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri. Three new ships. 00:10:30.059 --> 00:10:33.480 But again, those delivery dates, 2036 and 2037. 00:10:33.879 --> 00:10:36.000 I just have to ask, isn't technology going to 00:10:36.000 --> 00:10:39.039 be completely different in 12 years? Why lock 00:10:39.039 --> 00:10:41.539 this in now? You have to look at the supply chain. 00:10:41.600 --> 00:10:43.379 Right. I mentioned the warfare capacity earlier. 00:10:43.399 --> 00:10:45.460 Right. There are only a handful of shipyards 00:10:45.460 --> 00:10:47.700 in the entire world capable of building these 00:10:47.700 --> 00:10:50.179 complex mega ships. Yeah. Fincantieri in Italy 00:10:50.179 --> 00:10:52.299 is one of the best. So it's a huge bottleneck. 00:10:52.360 --> 00:10:54.779 A massive one. Their order books are filling 00:10:54.779 --> 00:10:58.539 up incredibly fast. If NCLH waited another year 00:10:58.539 --> 00:11:01.019 or two to place this order, they might not be 00:11:01.019 --> 00:11:03.460 able to get a slot until 2040 or even later. 00:11:03.629 --> 00:11:07.090 Wow. In fact, CEO John W. Chidsey called this 00:11:07.090 --> 00:11:09.850 a disciplined approach to secure a scarce construction 00:11:09.850 --> 00:11:12.210 capacity. So it's basically like booking a wedding 00:11:12.210 --> 00:11:14.490 venue. If you want a Saturday in June, you better 00:11:14.490 --> 00:11:17.009 book it two years. Exactly. Except here, it's 00:11:17.009 --> 00:11:18.710 a floating city and you're booking it 12 years 00:11:18.710 --> 00:11:20.309 out because there are only like three venues 00:11:20.309 --> 00:11:22.509 in the entire world. That's a great way to put 00:11:22.509 --> 00:11:25.250 it. And by booking it now, they're effectively 00:11:25.250 --> 00:11:27.690 blocking their competitors from getting those 00:11:27.690 --> 00:11:30.250 slots. It's a defensive move, just as much as 00:11:30.250 --> 00:11:33.399 an offensive one. That is ruthless. I love it. 00:11:33.720 --> 00:11:35.840 Now they aren't just ordering three random ships. 00:11:36.100 --> 00:11:38.480 They ordered one for each of their three distinct 00:11:38.480 --> 00:11:41.220 brands. One for Norwegian Cruise Line, one for 00:11:41.220 --> 00:11:43.500 Oceania, and one for Regent Seven Seas. It's 00:11:43.500 --> 00:11:45.500 a smart portfolio approach. They aren't putting 00:11:45.500 --> 00:11:47.879 all their eggs into the mass market basket. Let's 00:11:47.879 --> 00:11:50.139 break down the specs from the deep dive sources 00:11:50.139 --> 00:11:52.200 because the difference in scale between these 00:11:52.200 --> 00:11:54.659 ships is absolutely fascinating to me. It really 00:11:54.659 --> 00:11:56.519 highlights the difference between mass market 00:11:56.519 --> 00:11:58.580 and luxury. It really does. Let's start with 00:11:58.580 --> 00:12:01.259 the big one. The new ship for Norwegian Cruise 00:12:01.259 --> 00:12:04.419 Line. The behemoth. Yes. We were talking approximately 00:12:04.419 --> 00:12:10.059 227 ,000 gross tons, and it has over 5 ,000 passenger 00:12:10.059 --> 00:12:12.519 berths. That is just massive. The source describes 00:12:12.519 --> 00:12:15.200 it as incorporating the latest megaship design 00:12:15.200 --> 00:12:17.940 approach. OK. This is designed purely for economies 00:12:17.940 --> 00:12:20.480 of scale. Yeah. Maximum revenue, maximum guests, 00:12:20.779 --> 00:12:23.559 big attractions. Think go -karts, water slides, 00:12:24.019 --> 00:12:26.100 20 different restaurants. Yeah. It is a literal 00:12:26.100 --> 00:12:28.970 city at sea. OK, now let's look at the upscale 00:12:28.970 --> 00:12:31.750 mid -size option. The new ship for Oceania Cruises. 00:12:32.110 --> 00:12:34.809 This one is going to be a sister ship to the 00:12:34.809 --> 00:12:37.830 Oceania Sonata. Right. And the stats drop significantly 00:12:37.830 --> 00:12:41.370 right here. It's about 86 ,000 gross tons. And 00:12:41.370 --> 00:12:44.889 it carries around 1 ,390 guests. So less than 00:12:44.889 --> 00:12:47.149 half the physical tonnage, but way less than 00:12:47.149 --> 00:12:49.809 half the people. Exactly. And then you have the 00:12:49.809 --> 00:12:52.110 ultra luxury option, the new ship for region 00:12:52.110 --> 00:12:55.029 seven seas cruises. This is a sister to the seven 00:12:55.029 --> 00:12:57.440 seas prestige. And this is the aha moment for 00:12:57.440 --> 00:13:01.899 me. This ship is about 77 ,000 gross tons. That 00:13:01.899 --> 00:13:03.840 is not that much smaller than the Oceania ship 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:06.059 physically. No, it's not. But the passenger count, 00:13:06.500 --> 00:13:09.940 only about 822 berths. That is the metric that 00:13:09.940 --> 00:13:12.080 truly matters in luxury. Let's just visualize 00:13:12.080 --> 00:13:14.580 that density for a second. Compare the NCL ship 00:13:14.580 --> 00:13:17.840 to the Regent ship. The NCL ship is roughly three 00:13:17.840 --> 00:13:19.960 times the physical size and tonnage of the Regent 00:13:19.960 --> 00:13:22.289 ship. Right. but it carries more than six times 00:13:22.289 --> 00:13:24.350 the number of people. And that tells you everything 00:13:24.350 --> 00:13:26.789 you need to know. On the NCL ship, you are stepping 00:13:26.789 --> 00:13:30.230 into energy, noise, excitement, cues. You are 00:13:30.230 --> 00:13:32.330 part of a very big crowd. Yeah. On the region 00:13:32.330 --> 00:13:35.690 ship, with those ratios, you could realistically 00:13:35.690 --> 00:13:38.350 walk the deck and not see another soul for 10 00:13:38.350 --> 00:13:41.490 minutes. So that space ratio is effectively what 00:13:41.490 --> 00:13:43.690 you are buying. It is. You aren't just paying 00:13:43.690 --> 00:13:46.110 for better champagne or a slightly bigger shrimp 00:13:46.110 --> 00:13:48.169 cocktail. Right. You are paying for the absence 00:13:48.169 --> 00:13:50.929 of other people. You are paying for privacy and 00:13:50.929 --> 00:13:55.230 square footage. And NCLH is betting that in 2037 00:13:55.230 --> 00:13:58.710 there will still be incredibly strong demand 00:13:58.710 --> 00:14:02.009 for both the floating city and the private yacht 00:14:02.009 --> 00:14:03.929 experience. It makes a lot of sense. You capture 00:14:03.929 --> 00:14:05.629 the customer at absolutely every entry point. 00:14:06.389 --> 00:14:08.549 But looking at the business side of this, NCLH 00:14:08.549 --> 00:14:11.789 now has 17 new builds scheduled through 2037. 00:14:12.009 --> 00:14:14.149 That is a staggering amount of metal. It is. 00:14:14.190 --> 00:14:16.629 They are targeting a four percent compound annual 00:14:16.629 --> 00:14:18.490 growth rate, which is a very healthy, steady 00:14:18.490 --> 00:14:20.970 number. It's not exclusive tech startup growth. 00:14:21.090 --> 00:14:23.730 It is carefully managed industrial growth. But 00:14:23.730 --> 00:14:25.389 here's the question I always have when I read 00:14:25.389 --> 00:14:27.850 these headlines. How on earth do they pay for 00:14:27.850 --> 00:14:31.070 this? The finance. I mean, these ships cost billions. 00:14:31.669 --> 00:14:34.049 Do they just write a check today for a ship arriving 00:14:34.049 --> 00:14:36.909 in 12 years? Because honestly, that sounds like 00:14:36.909 --> 00:14:40.049 a terrible way to manage cash. It would be. And 00:14:40.049 --> 00:14:42.909 they don't do that. The source actually mentions 00:14:42.909 --> 00:14:45.309 that the pre -delivery payments are quote -unquote 00:14:45.309 --> 00:14:47.750 immaterial. Immaterial. I just love corporate 00:14:47.750 --> 00:14:49.750 speak. Translate that for us. It essentially 00:14:49.750 --> 00:14:51.990 means they pay very little cash upfront right 00:14:51.990 --> 00:14:54.370 now. They don't pay the bulk of the cost until 00:14:54.370 --> 00:14:56.529 they actually get the physical keys to the ship 00:14:56.529 --> 00:15:00.529 in 2036 or 2037. Okay. And even then they use 00:15:00.529 --> 00:15:02.909 what's called export credit agency financing. 00:15:03.590 --> 00:15:05.750 Walk me through that. Who is actually taking 00:15:05.750 --> 00:15:07.769 the risk here? This is where geopolitics comes 00:15:07.769 --> 00:15:10.190 in. The Italian government essentially helps 00:15:10.190 --> 00:15:12.450 guarantee the loans. Really? Why would they do 00:15:12.450 --> 00:15:14.850 that? Because Fincantieri is a massive employer 00:15:14.850 --> 00:15:18.190 in Italy. Keeping those shipyards full for the 00:15:18.190 --> 00:15:21.169 next decade is a matter of profound national 00:15:21.169 --> 00:15:22.909 economic interest. So let me get this straight. 00:15:23.029 --> 00:15:25.470 The Italian taxpayer is basically backstopping 00:15:25.470 --> 00:15:27.409 the construction just to keep their dry docks 00:15:27.409 --> 00:15:31.230 full? In a way, yes. Yeah. It's a deeply symbiotic 00:15:31.230 --> 00:15:34.070 relationship. The cruise line gets cheap financing 00:15:34.070 --> 00:15:37.509 and doesn't have to put much cash down. That 00:15:37.509 --> 00:15:40.570 allows them to order billions in assets without 00:15:40.570 --> 00:15:42.809 wrecking their balance sheet today. And the shipyard. 00:15:43.009 --> 00:15:45.250 The shipyard gets 12 solid years of guaranteed 00:15:45.250 --> 00:15:48.309 work. Its industrial policy completely disguised 00:15:48.309 --> 00:15:51.610 as a bank loan. That is the real deep dive insight 00:15:51.610 --> 00:15:53.909 right there. It is not just a boat. It is an 00:15:53.909 --> 00:15:56.350 international trade agreement. Exactly. Now, 00:15:56.350 --> 00:15:58.490 there is one other future proofing element in 00:15:58.490 --> 00:16:00.409 this order that we absolutely have to touch on. 00:16:00.990 --> 00:16:05.179 The green angle. Yes. Fincantieri and NCLH are 00:16:05.179 --> 00:16:08.279 focusing heavily on methanol readiness. Methanol. 00:16:08.320 --> 00:16:12.240 We hear this buzzword a lot lately. Why is everyone 00:16:12.240 --> 00:16:14.919 suddenly pivoting to methanol? Because the entire 00:16:14.919 --> 00:16:17.480 maritime industry is under immense pressure to 00:16:17.480 --> 00:16:21.120 decarbonize. Traditional heavy fuel oil is incredibly 00:16:21.120 --> 00:16:23.399 dirty. Right. Methanol, on the other hand, can 00:16:23.399 --> 00:16:25.980 be produced in a green way that is totally carbon 00:16:25.980 --> 00:16:28.820 neutral. Okay. But here is the catch. The fuel 00:16:28.820 --> 00:16:31.259 supply chain doesn't fully exist yet. You cannot 00:16:31.259 --> 00:16:33.139 just pull up to any port in the Caribbean and 00:16:33.139 --> 00:16:35.000 fill your ship up with green methanol. Wait, 00:16:35.500 --> 00:16:38.340 so they are building these massive ships for 00:16:38.340 --> 00:16:41.039 a fuel that you can't even really buy yet? Precisely. 00:16:41.200 --> 00:16:44.279 That is a huge gamble. It is. And it's not just 00:16:44.279 --> 00:16:46.919 about the fuel supply. It's about the physics 00:16:46.919 --> 00:16:49.659 of the actual ship. How so? The source notes 00:16:49.659 --> 00:16:52.399 that the future prima class ships, the ones coming 00:16:52.399 --> 00:16:55.639 in 2028, are actually being completely reconfigured. 00:16:55.940 --> 00:16:58.659 Really? Yes. They are lengthening the ship designs 00:16:58.659 --> 00:17:02.080 specifically to accommodate these green methanol 00:17:02.080 --> 00:17:04.440 fuel tanks. Wait, they are making the physical 00:17:04.440 --> 00:17:08.099 ships longer just to fit the tanks? Why? Is methanol 00:17:08.099 --> 00:17:11.279 really that bulky? It is. Methanol has a significantly 00:17:11.279 --> 00:17:13.960 lower energy density than traditional diesel. 00:17:14.259 --> 00:17:17.000 Oh, I see. So to get the exact same range, to 00:17:17.000 --> 00:17:18.680 sail the same number of days without needing 00:17:18.680 --> 00:17:21.660 to refuel, you need a much larger volume of fuel. 00:17:21.740 --> 00:17:24.099 Yeah. So you need bigger tanks. And bigger tanks 00:17:24.099 --> 00:17:26.900 mean you absolutely need a bigger hull. So sustainability 00:17:26.900 --> 00:17:29.660 isn't just a PR buzzword here. It is literally 00:17:29.660 --> 00:17:32.220 altering naval architecture. It is. They are 00:17:32.220 --> 00:17:34.539 fundamentally changing the steel to future -proof 00:17:34.539 --> 00:17:37.299 the vessel. It's a gamble for sure. They are 00:17:37.299 --> 00:17:39.220 betting that by the time these ships actually 00:17:39.220 --> 00:17:42.900 launch in the late 2030s, the green methanol 00:17:42.900 --> 00:17:44.960 supply chain will be mature enough to feed them. 00:17:45.059 --> 00:17:46.900 That is fascinating. It's kind of like buying 00:17:46.900 --> 00:17:49.480 a car that runs on a fuel that hasn't been widely 00:17:49.480 --> 00:17:51.519 invented yet, but lengthening your garage right 00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:54.289 now just in case. A bit like that, yeah. But 00:17:54.289 --> 00:17:56.589 look, if they don't do it and regulations suddenly 00:17:56.589 --> 00:17:59.170 tighten, they could be left with a stranded asset. 00:17:59.390 --> 00:18:01.930 A stranded asset. Right. A multi -billion dollar 00:18:01.930 --> 00:18:05.450 ship that legally isn't allowed to sail. So that 00:18:05.450 --> 00:18:07.970 methanol ready stamp is basically their insurance 00:18:07.970 --> 00:18:11.329 policy. So what does this all mean for you listening 00:18:11.329 --> 00:18:13.430 right now? Let's try to tie these two massive 00:18:13.430 --> 00:18:16.390 stories together. We have ADA and we have NCLH. 00:18:16.529 --> 00:18:18.849 If you look at the big picture here, we have 00:18:18.849 --> 00:18:21.329 two very different types of expansion happening 00:18:21.329 --> 00:18:24.349 simultaneously. ADA is expanding its footprint. 00:18:24.450 --> 00:18:26.750 Right. They are claiming physical territory, 00:18:27.529 --> 00:18:29.970 Celebration Key, those New York terminal slots, 00:18:30.130 --> 00:18:32.069 the Greenland routes. They are securing where 00:18:32.069 --> 00:18:34.690 they sail. And NCLH is securing what they sail. 00:18:35.089 --> 00:18:38.250 Exactly. NCLH is securing their future fleet. 00:18:38.650 --> 00:18:41.329 They are locking in those critical Fincantieri 00:18:41.329 --> 00:18:44.869 slots through 2037 just to ensure they actually 00:18:44.869 --> 00:18:47.829 have the capacity to compete in the decades to 00:18:47.829 --> 00:18:50.230 come. So whether you are a traveler dreaming 00:18:50.230 --> 00:18:54.230 of that Halifax and Boston combo in 2027, or 00:18:54.230 --> 00:18:56.509 you are just someone who loves watching billion 00:18:56.509 --> 00:18:59.210 dollar business strategy unfold, the takeaway 00:18:59.210 --> 00:19:01.490 is pretty clear. The cruise industry isn't just 00:19:01.490 --> 00:19:04.650 bouncing back. It is betting big on aggressive 00:19:04.650 --> 00:19:07.250 long term growth. They are definitely looking 00:19:07.250 --> 00:19:09.410 way past the horizon. They aren't planning for 00:19:09.410 --> 00:19:10.869 the next storm anymore. They're planning for 00:19:10.869 --> 00:19:13.380 the next generation of travel. But here's the 00:19:13.380 --> 00:19:14.900 thought I really want to leave you with today 00:19:14.900 --> 00:19:17.740 to just mull over. We're seeing these lines ordering 00:19:17.740 --> 00:19:20.680 ships for 2037 that are entirely methanol ready. 00:19:20.700 --> 00:19:22.960 Yes. The ships are coming. The technology is 00:19:22.960 --> 00:19:24.799 literally being welded into the steel as we speak. 00:19:25.299 --> 00:19:27.759 But will the global fuel supply chain actually 00:19:27.759 --> 00:19:29.700 be ready for the ships? That is the big unknown 00:19:29.700 --> 00:19:31.859 right now. We are building the vessels, but the 00:19:31.859 --> 00:19:34.279 infrastructure to fuel them is the missing piece 00:19:34.279 --> 00:19:37.039 of the puzzle. And honestly, that is the real 00:19:37.039 --> 00:19:39.220 race to watch. That certainly is. Thanks for 00:19:39.220 --> 00:19:41.299 diving in with us today. We will catch you on 00:19:41.299 --> 00:19:42.000 the next one.