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I was looking at a photo of a modern

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cruise ship this morning, one of

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those massive aerial shots where

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the ship just looks like a white

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skyscraper tipped on its side. Oh

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yeah, the drone shot. Right, exactly.

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And usually when you look at those,

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you just see a vacation, right?

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You see the pool deck, maybe a water

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slide, the buffet line. A giant

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floating hotel. Exactly. But looking

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at the news coming out of the industry

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just this week here in February

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2026, I'm seeing something completely

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different. I am seeing a machine

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that is basically fighting a war

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on three different trunks simultaneously.

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And honestly, the passengers, you're

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just along for the ride. That is

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a much more accurate, if slightly

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terrifying way to view it. Yeah.

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Because it really isn't just a hotel

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anymore. No. It is a piece of heavy

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industrial machinery. And right

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now, it's fighting a battle against

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obsolescence, so we're Asian steel.

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It's fighting a battle against nature,

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which we saw violently in the Mediterranean

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this week. Yeah, that was wild.

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And perhaps most viciously right

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now, it is fighting a battle inside

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the corporate boardroom over what

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the actual soul of this industry

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looks like. And that is exactly

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the mission for this deep dive.

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We have these three stories that

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on the surface, they look completely

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disconnected. You have a ship getting

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a makeover and a Singapore dry dock.

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You have a storm messing up Valentine's

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Day plans in Europe and a CEO getting

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fired in Miami. Right. But our job

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today is to connect those dots for

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you. We want to figure out how the

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Masaju book on Deck 12 is actually

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determined by cutthroat financial

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strategies happening 10 years prior.

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It really is the entire ecosystem

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of cruising. You've got the product,

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the operation, and the business.

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And frankly, all three are under

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immense stress right now. So let's

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start with the product. We are zooming

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in on the Carnival encounter. Right

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now, as we speak, this ship is sitting

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in a dry dock in Singapore. It went

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in on February 3rd, and it isn't

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coming out until March 5th. A solid

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month. Right. Now, first off, for

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anyone listening who thinks a dry

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dock is just, I don't know, a parking

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spot, paint a picture for us. What

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is actually happening in there?

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Well, think of it less like a parking

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spot and more like open heart surgery

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combined with a frantic home renovation

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show. That sounds chaotic. It is.

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The ship is lifted entirely out

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of the water. Which is critical

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because it allows them to work on

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the hull and the propulsion systems,

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but it's also the only time they

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can do massive structural changes

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without passengers underfoot. Because

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you can't exactly rip up the LIDO

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deck while people are trying to

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tan. Exactly. And for the Carnival

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Encounter, this is desperate, necessary

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work. because this ship was built

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in 2002 2002 okay so in car years

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that's a classic but in ship years

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where the new vessels are basically

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floating spaceships that's well

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that's geriatric isn't it it is

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what the industry politely calls

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mature tonnage mature tonnage I

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like that right so this used to

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be the star princess then it was

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the Pacific encounter for Pino Australia

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and now it's joining the carnival

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fleet okay But here is the fundamental

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problem. You can't just run a 24

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-year -old ship next to a brand

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new mega ship that has, you know,

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roller coasters and robot bartenders.

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Right, because people will just

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book the newer ship. The gap in

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quality and the price you can charge

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is just too wide. So you have to

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reinvent the asset. You have to

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make the old hardware feel like

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new software. And looking at our

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source material, the reinvention

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here seems remarkably specific.

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They aren't just slapping a roller

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coaster on top or trying to force

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a go -kart track onto a 2002 deck

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plan. No, the structure couldn't

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handle it anyway. Right, so instead

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they're focusing heavily on wellness.

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They're installing these Cloud 9

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spa thermal suites. And I want to

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dig into this because it feels like

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a very intentional pivot. It is

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the key insight of this entire dry

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dock. Don't look at the spa as just

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a luxury add -on or a place to get

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a facial. Look at it as a pure revenue

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strategy. They're adding saunas,

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steam rooms, and specifically heated

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thermal loungers. Heated thermal

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loungers. I mean, I've been on one

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and they are delightful. But why

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is that specific piece of furniture

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the strategic linchpin for a ship

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like this? Because context is everything.

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This ship is based in Brisbane.

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It's serving the Queensland market.

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And we have notes here from Anton

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Loeb, the VP of Sales and Marketing

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over there. He explicitly points

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out that Queenslanders want luxury

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regardless of the season. But wait,

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Queensland is in Australia. Isn't

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it basically always sunny? I just

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picture surfing and beaches. Not

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in July and August. Oh, right. Southern

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Hemisphere. Exactly. That's their

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winter. It gets brisk. So if you

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rely entirely on outdoor pools and

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waterslides, your onboard revenue

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drops off a cliff when the temperature

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drops because nobody wants to be

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out on the Lido deck. That makes

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total sense. But if you install

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an indoor heated sanctuary, suddenly

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you can command premium ticket prices

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year round. You are effectively

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weatherproofing the revenue of the

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ship. Wow. That is incredibly smart.

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It's monetizing the indoor space

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to hedge against the outdoor weather.

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It basically turns a seasonal asset

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into a year -round cash cow. Exactly.

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But they are doing exterior work,

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too. The sources mention a new hull

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livery, which I assume isn't just

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for aesthetics. Livery is just ship

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speak for the paint job and the

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branding, right? Yeah. They are

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giving it the red, white, and blue

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Carnival hull. This is all about

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brand consistency. When a family

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walks down the pier, they shouldn't

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feel like they booked the leftover

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P &O ship. They need to feel like

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they're on a real carnival ship.

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Right. It's about setting expectations.

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Exactly. They're also replacing

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all seven Jacuzzi tubs. Seven? That

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sounds like a massive plumbing nightmare.

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I can't even get a plumber to fix

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one sink in my house on a Tuesday,

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let alone seven hot tubs on a ship

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in a month. It's a massive undertaking.

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And they're refreshing the twin

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racer waterslides, updating the

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basketball court with new hoops

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and netting. It's all about removing

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any kind of budget stigma from an

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older vessel so they can charge

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mainline prices. No, there is a

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logistical nugget here that I found

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really interesting. The ship is

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in Singapore for the work, but you

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said it lives in Brisbane. Right.

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That's a long way to travel thousands

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of miles with an completely empty

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ship. That burns a lot of fuel for

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zero profit. Which is exactly why

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they don't run it empty. This is

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the sheer efficiency of the industry

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at work. They turn the delivery

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trip into a repositioning cruise.

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Oh, of course. It leaves Singapore

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on March 5th and takes paying passengers

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to Lombok, Vanoa in Bali, Cairns

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and Darwin before it ever even arrives

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in Brisbane. So they basically get

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the passengers to pay for the gas

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to get the ship home. Pretty much.

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By March 20th, it's back in Brisbane,

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refitted, rebranded and ready to

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generate cash. That is the highly

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controlled side of the industry.

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It's basically a massive spreadsheet

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exercise. You plan the drydock,

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you book the contractors, you sell

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the tickets. But let's pivot to

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segment two, where those spreadsheets

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just go completely out the window

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because Mother Nature decides to

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intervene. The operations side.

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Right. We are moving from the controlled

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drydock to the absolute chaos of

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the Mediterranean, specifically

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Valentine's Day weekend 2026. And

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it sounds like this was less about

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romance and roses and more about

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holding on for dear life. Absolutely.

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For a lot of passengers on MSC,

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this was a very stark reminder that

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they are, in fact, on a boat in

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the open ocean. We had severe winter

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storms slamming into the coast of

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France. The sources mentioned the

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mistral winds really kicking up.

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Yeah, the data here shows wind gusts

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over 40 knots on the 14th, topping

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50 knots on the 15th. Now, for those

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of us listening who don't sail,

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Put that in perspective, is 50 knots

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just really windy or is that actually

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dangerous? 50 knots is force 10

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territory on the Buford scale. It's

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roughly 57 miles per hour. Wow.

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Now, imagine a skyscraper, which

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is essentially what the MSC World

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Europa is. It has this massive surface

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area. When a 57 mile per hour wind

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hits the side of that ship, it creates

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what we call a sail effect. So the

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whole ship acts like a giant sail.

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Exactly. It pushes the ship sideways

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with immense uncontrollable force.

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So trying to maneuver a 200 ,000

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ton vessel into a narrow concrete

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port like Marseille in those conditions

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isn't just difficult, it's negligent.

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You risk smelting the pier or worse,

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breaching the hull of the ship.

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So the captain makes the call. We

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cannot dock in Marseille. Now, usually

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when a ship ships a port, people

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are annoyed because they miss their

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wine tour or their lunch in town.

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But the sources highlight that Misson

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Marseille is a very specific type

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of disaster because it's a turnover

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port. Why is that distinction so

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important? This is where the logistical

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nightmare really begins. Most ports

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you visit are transit ports. You

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get off, buy a magnet, eat a crepe,

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you get back on the ship. Right.

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A turnover port is where the cruise

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actually begins and ends for a huge

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chunk of the passengers. So you

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have thousands of people with their

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suitcases waiting on the pier in

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Marseille to board. And you have

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thousands of people currently on

273
00:08:47,970 --> 00:08:49,669
the ship who are desperately trying

274
00:08:49,669 --> 00:08:51,309
to catch flights home from the Marseille

275
00:08:51,309 --> 00:08:52,980
airport. Oh, wow. I didn't even

276
00:08:52,980 --> 00:08:54,279
think about the flights. So if the

277
00:08:54,279 --> 00:08:56,059
ship can't dock, you have people

278
00:08:56,059 --> 00:08:57,679
stranded on the dock in the rain

279
00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,480
and people trapped on the ship missing

280
00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,879
their connections, the entire logistics

281
00:09:01,879 --> 00:09:03,919
chain just snaps in half. Instantly.

282
00:09:04,259 --> 00:09:05,779
And this is where we see the harsh

283
00:09:05,779 --> 00:09:07,840
difference between the glossy brochure

284
00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:10,399
and the reality of operations. MSC

285
00:09:10,399 --> 00:09:11,899
had to divert immediately to find

286
00:09:11,899 --> 00:09:15,039
safety. The MSC World Europa went

287
00:09:15,039 --> 00:09:16,720
to Toulon, which is a naval port

288
00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:18,740
about 40 miles away. It's much more

289
00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:20,159
sheltered from the wind. OK, 40

290
00:09:20,159 --> 00:09:22,289
miles isn't terrible. No. But the

291
00:09:22,289 --> 00:09:24,149
MSC Splendida had it worse. It had

292
00:09:24,149 --> 00:09:26,330
to go even further, about 130 miles

293
00:09:26,330 --> 00:09:28,450
away de Villefranche -sur -Mer over

294
00:09:28,450 --> 00:09:30,169
near Nice. So now you have your

295
00:09:30,169 --> 00:09:32,570
passengers either 40 or 130 miles

296
00:09:32,570 --> 00:09:33,870
away from where they parked their

297
00:09:33,870 --> 00:09:36,070
cars or booked their outbound flights.

298
00:09:36,909 --> 00:09:39,830
How did the cruise line handle that

299
00:09:39,830 --> 00:09:41,850
chaos? Because I have to assume

300
00:09:41,850 --> 00:09:43,409
the passengers were highly vocal

301
00:09:43,409 --> 00:09:45,970
about this. They always are. And

302
00:09:45,970 --> 00:09:47,129
this is where it gets really interesting

303
00:09:47,129 --> 00:09:48,870
from a crisis management perspective.

304
00:09:49,409 --> 00:09:51,830
The guest experience depended entirely

305
00:09:51,830 --> 00:09:53,710
on which ship you happen to be on.

306
00:09:54,070 --> 00:09:55,710
How so? Well, if you were on the

307
00:09:55,710 --> 00:09:58,429
Splendida in Villefranche, 130 miles

308
00:09:58,429 --> 00:10:01,190
away, the decision was binary. It's

309
00:10:01,190 --> 00:10:02,710
simply too far to bus people back

310
00:10:02,710 --> 00:10:04,690
and forth to Marseille for day trips.

311
00:10:04,830 --> 00:10:06,549
So the company just said, automatic

312
00:10:06,549 --> 00:10:08,070
refunds for your shore excursions.

313
00:10:08,269 --> 00:10:09,950
Go rebook something local here in

314
00:10:09,950 --> 00:10:11,889
Nice. Done. It was a clean break.

315
00:10:12,149 --> 00:10:13,470
That makes sense. It's disappointing

316
00:10:13,470 --> 00:10:15,450
for the guest, but it's clear communication.

317
00:10:16,029 --> 00:10:17,470
But the World Europa was only 40

318
00:10:17,470 --> 00:10:20,210
miles away and two on. That's tantalizingly

319
00:10:20,210 --> 00:10:21,809
close. Right. And that proximity

320
00:10:21,809 --> 00:10:23,529
caused what I call the friction

321
00:10:23,529 --> 00:10:25,629
of uncertainty. The operations team

322
00:10:25,629 --> 00:10:26,850
probably looked at the map and thought,

323
00:10:27,029 --> 00:10:28,590
hey, it's only 40 miles. Maybe the

324
00:10:28,590 --> 00:10:30,090
wind will die down. Maybe we can

325
00:10:30,090 --> 00:10:31,490
secure enough buses to run people

326
00:10:31,490 --> 00:10:33,309
down the highway. Oh, no. So they

327
00:10:33,309 --> 00:10:35,350
didn't just cancel. Exactly. Instead

328
00:10:35,350 --> 00:10:37,169
of a quick, clean refund, guests

329
00:10:37,169 --> 00:10:38,590
were told to just wait for case

330
00:10:38,590 --> 00:10:39,809
-by -case letters to be delivered

331
00:10:39,809 --> 00:10:41,370
to their cabins. Which is honestly

332
00:10:41,370 --> 00:10:42,789
the absolute worst thing you can

333
00:10:42,789 --> 00:10:44,830
tell a passenger in a crisis. Just

334
00:10:44,830 --> 00:10:46,870
wait. It completely removes their

335
00:10:46,870 --> 00:10:48,809
agency. It perfectly illustrates

336
00:10:48,809 --> 00:10:50,750
the decision matrix these companies

337
00:10:50,750 --> 00:10:54,210
face every day. First, safety. Yeah.

338
00:10:54,269 --> 00:10:55,529
You have to divert the ship. That's

339
00:10:55,529 --> 00:10:57,669
non -negotiable. Right. Second is

340
00:10:57,669 --> 00:10:59,929
revenue. Can we somehow save the

341
00:10:59,929 --> 00:11:01,309
excursion money by busing them?

342
00:11:01,610 --> 00:11:03,190
And third is guest satisfaction.

343
00:11:03,689 --> 00:11:06,129
In this specific case, trying to

344
00:11:06,129 --> 00:11:08,149
save the revenue or perhaps just

345
00:11:08,149 --> 00:11:10,250
trying to salvage the original itinerary

346
00:11:10,250 --> 00:11:11,870
might have actually hurt satisfaction

347
00:11:11,870 --> 00:11:13,269
more because it left people in limbo.

348
00:11:13,450 --> 00:11:15,169
It's a great example of the operational

349
00:11:15,169 --> 00:11:17,009
resilience required, though, because

350
00:11:17,009 --> 00:11:18,429
you can build the most advanced

351
00:11:18,429 --> 00:11:19,710
ship in the world and the world

352
00:11:19,710 --> 00:11:21,509
Europa is LNG powered, it's cutting

353
00:11:21,509 --> 00:11:23,490
edge stuff. But if the wind blows

354
00:11:23,490 --> 00:11:25,830
50 knots, you are still entirely

355
00:11:25,830 --> 00:11:27,649
at the mercy of the elements. You

356
00:11:27,649 --> 00:11:29,269
simply can't engineer your way out

357
00:11:29,269 --> 00:11:31,289
of a hurricane force gust. You really

358
00:11:31,289 --> 00:11:33,330
can't. And that feeling of being

359
00:11:33,330 --> 00:11:35,029
at the mercy of forces you can't

360
00:11:35,029 --> 00:11:37,269
control transitions us perfectly

361
00:11:37,269 --> 00:11:38,889
to the biggest story of the week.

362
00:11:39,870 --> 00:11:40,889
Because while the captains were

363
00:11:40,889 --> 00:11:42,070
out there fighting the wind in the

364
00:11:42,070 --> 00:11:43,970
Mediterranean, the executives at

365
00:11:43,970 --> 00:11:45,629
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were

366
00:11:45,629 --> 00:11:47,250
fighting for their jobs in Miami.

367
00:11:48,519 --> 00:11:51,120
The boardroom. And this is the heavy

368
00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,299
hitting financial stuff. On February

369
00:11:53,299 --> 00:11:56,360
12th, 2026, Harry Summer was ousted

370
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,759
as the CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line

371
00:11:58,759 --> 00:12:01,059
Holdings. A massive industry shaking

372
00:12:01,059 --> 00:12:03,580
move. and he is being replaced by

373
00:12:03,580 --> 00:12:05,639
John W. Chidsey. Okay, so I looked

374
00:12:05,639 --> 00:12:06,980
up John Chidsey's resume when I

375
00:12:06,980 --> 00:12:08,179
was reading the sources, and I actually

376
00:12:08,179 --> 00:12:08,980
double -checked it because I thought

377
00:12:08,980 --> 00:12:10,659
I had the wrong browser tab open.

378
00:12:11,179 --> 00:12:13,740
I saw Subway and Burger King. Yes.

379
00:12:13,820 --> 00:12:15,139
This guy isn't a cruise guy, he's

380
00:12:15,139 --> 00:12:16,399
a fast food guy. You're reading

381
00:12:16,399 --> 00:12:18,580
that entirely correctly. His executive

382
00:12:18,580 --> 00:12:20,139
claim to fame is running massive

383
00:12:20,139 --> 00:12:22,460
fast food franchises. Now, he has

384
00:12:22,460 --> 00:12:23,799
been on the NCAA's board of directors

385
00:12:23,799 --> 00:12:25,620
since 2013, so he certainly knows

386
00:12:25,620 --> 00:12:27,000
the corporate structure of the company,

387
00:12:27,019 --> 00:12:29,679
but he has never run a cruise line

388
00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:31,830
operationally. He hasn't spent his

389
00:12:31,830 --> 00:12:33,809
life dealing with shipyard dry docks

390
00:12:33,809 --> 00:12:36,029
and mistral winds. This feels very

391
00:12:36,029 --> 00:12:37,830
intentional. You don't hire the

392
00:12:37,830 --> 00:12:39,549
Burger King guy if you want to focus

393
00:12:39,549 --> 00:12:41,789
on artisanal, luxury, or bespoke

394
00:12:41,789 --> 00:12:43,950
travel experiences. You hire him

395
00:12:43,950 --> 00:12:46,389
to cut costs and streamline operations.

396
00:12:46,870 --> 00:12:49,850
Precisely. This move is being heavily

397
00:12:49,850 --> 00:12:52,090
driven by an activist investor group

398
00:12:52,090 --> 00:12:53,769
called Elliott Investment Management.

399
00:12:54,490 --> 00:12:56,389
They recently bought a 10 % stake

400
00:12:56,389 --> 00:12:58,110
in the company, and they're effectively

401
00:12:58,110 --> 00:12:59,710
walking into the boardroom and saying,

402
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,460
The party is over. But what is their

403
00:13:02,460 --> 00:13:04,340
actual beef with Norwegian? Is the

404
00:13:04,340 --> 00:13:05,799
company failing? I feel like I see

405
00:13:05,799 --> 00:13:07,220
their commercials everywhere. It's

406
00:13:07,220 --> 00:13:08,559
definitely not failing, but it is

407
00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,899
lagging behind its peers. Elliott

408
00:13:10,899 --> 00:13:12,220
is looking at something called the

409
00:13:12,220 --> 00:13:14,320
yield gap. They compare Norwegian

410
00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:16,779
to its two massive rivals, Carnival

411
00:13:16,779 --> 00:13:18,440
Corporation and Royal Caribbean.

412
00:13:18,620 --> 00:13:19,779
OK, let's look at those numbers.

413
00:13:19,940 --> 00:13:22,379
In 2025, Carnival brought in record

414
00:13:22,379 --> 00:13:25,750
revenue. nearly $27 billion. And

415
00:13:25,750 --> 00:13:27,570
CLH, in its strongest quarter, did

416
00:13:27,570 --> 00:13:29,809
about $2 .9 billion. That's a massive

417
00:13:29,809 --> 00:13:31,029
difference. But isn't that just

418
00:13:31,029 --> 00:13:33,169
a scale issue? Carnival is a much

419
00:13:33,169 --> 00:13:34,970
bigger company with way more ships.

420
00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:38,070
It is partly scale, yes. But Elliott

421
00:13:38,070 --> 00:13:40,450
argues that Norwegian stock is fundamentally

422
00:13:40,450 --> 00:13:42,610
undervalued relative to its actual

423
00:13:42,610 --> 00:13:44,909
potential. They believe that if

424
00:13:44,909 --> 00:13:46,309
Norwegian adopted what they are

425
00:13:46,309 --> 00:13:48,629
calling a Norwegian Now Plan, which

426
00:13:48,629 --> 00:13:50,549
is essentially a strict diet of

427
00:13:50,549 --> 00:13:51,809
financial discipline and margin

428
00:13:51,809 --> 00:13:54,990
expansion, the stock could hit $56

429
00:13:54,990 --> 00:13:58,710
a share. Wow. Which is 159 % upside

430
00:13:58,710 --> 00:13:59,830
from where it has been trading.

431
00:14:00,590 --> 00:14:02,789
159 % upside is exactly the kind

432
00:14:02,789 --> 00:14:04,490
of number that makes Wall Street

433
00:14:04,490 --> 00:14:07,309
sit up and listen. So Ellie comes

434
00:14:07,309 --> 00:14:09,350
in, pushes out the cruise guy Harry

435
00:14:09,350 --> 00:14:11,309
Summer, and installs the efficiency

436
00:14:11,309 --> 00:14:13,610
guy, John Chidsey. But there's a

437
00:14:13,610 --> 00:14:14,830
twist in the source material here

438
00:14:14,830 --> 00:14:15,950
that I found really fascinating.

439
00:14:16,090 --> 00:14:17,509
They aren't just asking for cuts,

440
00:14:17,549 --> 00:14:18,769
are they? Oh, they aren't. And this

441
00:14:18,769 --> 00:14:20,149
is the central paradox of the whole

442
00:14:20,149 --> 00:14:22,299
situation. At the exact same time

443
00:14:22,299 --> 00:14:23,460
they are installing a fast food

444
00:14:23,460 --> 00:14:25,720
CEO to cut costs, they are publicly

445
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,320
demanding their legend of the cruise

446
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,039
industry, Adam Goldstein, be put

447
00:14:29,039 --> 00:14:30,299
on the board of directors. Adam

448
00:14:30,299 --> 00:14:32,360
Goldstein. That name definitely

449
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:33,679
rings a bell. He was with Royal

450
00:14:33,679 --> 00:14:35,179
Caribbean, right? He was the president

451
00:14:35,179 --> 00:14:37,539
of Royal Caribbean for years. He

452
00:14:37,539 --> 00:14:39,899
has over 30 years of deep experience

453
00:14:39,899 --> 00:14:41,960
in this industry. He is literally

454
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,940
the guy who helped build the modern

455
00:14:44,940 --> 00:14:47,000
mega ship experience that dominates

456
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:48,899
the market today. So Elliott is

457
00:14:48,899 --> 00:14:50,580
playing a very complex game here.

458
00:14:50,659 --> 00:14:53,379
They want Chidsey to tighten the

459
00:14:53,379 --> 00:14:55,279
bolts on the finances, make the

460
00:14:55,279 --> 00:14:57,159
burgers cheaper to produce, if you

461
00:14:57,159 --> 00:14:59,220
will. But they want Goldstein in

462
00:14:59,220 --> 00:15:00,360
the room to make sure they don't

463
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:01,759
actually destroy the product in

464
00:15:01,759 --> 00:15:03,340
the process. Because if you cut

465
00:15:03,340 --> 00:15:05,299
too much, if you turn a premium

466
00:15:05,299 --> 00:15:07,679
Norwegian cruise into the equivalent

467
00:15:07,679 --> 00:15:09,299
of a soggy sandwich sitting under

468
00:15:09,299 --> 00:15:11,340
a heat lamp, people just stop booking.

469
00:15:11,340 --> 00:15:13,019
Right. And then your profit margins

470
00:15:13,019 --> 00:15:14,379
don't matter because your revenue

471
00:15:14,379 --> 00:15:16,600
plummets. Right. Cruising is fundamentally

472
00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:18,840
an experienced economy. It relies

473
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,039
heavily on repeat customers. You

474
00:15:21,039 --> 00:15:22,580
simply can't efficiency your way

475
00:15:22,580 --> 00:15:24,340
to popularity if the food is bad,

476
00:15:24,740 --> 00:15:26,539
the cabin service is slow, and the

477
00:15:26,539 --> 00:15:27,860
entertainment is cheap. And the

478
00:15:27,860 --> 00:15:29,379
stakes are incredibly high right

479
00:15:29,379 --> 00:15:31,600
now. Because Norwegian isn't just

480
00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:32,960
cutting back and playing it safe.

481
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:34,759
They're currently committed to spending

482
00:15:34,759 --> 00:15:36,340
billions of dollars on brand new

483
00:15:36,340 --> 00:15:37,340
ships. I'm glad you brought that

484
00:15:37,340 --> 00:15:39,429
up. The new Fingantieri deal. Right.

485
00:15:39,629 --> 00:15:40,929
The sources mention they are ordering

486
00:15:40,929 --> 00:15:42,870
new ships for Norwegian, Oceania

487
00:15:42,870 --> 00:15:44,909
and Regent Seven Seas, but the delivery

488
00:15:44,909 --> 00:15:48,429
dates are in 2036 and 2037. 2037.

489
00:15:48,950 --> 00:15:50,169
Just think about that time frame

490
00:15:50,169 --> 00:15:51,450
for a second. I mean, I don't even

491
00:15:51,450 --> 00:15:52,370
know what I'm having for dinner

492
00:15:52,370 --> 00:15:54,009
tonight, let alone what the global

493
00:15:54,009 --> 00:15:55,809
economy or travel trends will look

494
00:15:55,809 --> 00:15:57,730
like in 2037. That's more than a

495
00:15:57,730 --> 00:15:59,549
decade away. But that is the massive

496
00:15:59,549 --> 00:16:01,549
lead time of this heavy industry.

497
00:16:01,769 --> 00:16:03,710
You have to place your multi -billion

498
00:16:03,710 --> 00:16:05,490
dollar bets 10 years in advance.

499
00:16:05,929 --> 00:16:07,250
And they are building an entirely

500
00:16:07,250 --> 00:16:09,070
new class of ship for Norwegian

501
00:16:09,070 --> 00:16:13,509
over 227 ,000 gross tons. That size

502
00:16:13,509 --> 00:16:15,870
will hold over 5 ,000 passengers.

503
00:16:15,929 --> 00:16:17,269
That puts it right up there with

504
00:16:17,269 --> 00:16:18,490
the biggest ships in the world,

505
00:16:18,710 --> 00:16:20,429
the absolute behemoths. It does.

506
00:16:21,029 --> 00:16:23,049
So here is the very real situation

507
00:16:23,049 --> 00:16:25,490
facing the new CEO today. You have

508
00:16:25,490 --> 00:16:27,509
John Chidsey, brought in and known

509
00:16:27,509 --> 00:16:29,570
for extreme cost cutting and operational

510
00:16:29,570 --> 00:16:31,730
efficiency. And sitting on his desk,

511
00:16:31,850 --> 00:16:33,009
he has an invoice for the biggest,

512
00:16:33,029 --> 00:16:34,730
most expensive luxury vessels the

513
00:16:34,730 --> 00:16:36,389
company has ever built arriving

514
00:16:36,389 --> 00:16:38,210
in a decade. Talk about pressure.

515
00:16:38,509 --> 00:16:40,110
Right. He has to figure out how

516
00:16:40,110 --> 00:16:41,730
to pay for those massive future

517
00:16:41,730 --> 00:16:43,710
ships while actively trying to slash

518
00:16:43,710 --> 00:16:45,769
today's operating budget. It really

519
00:16:45,769 --> 00:16:47,169
feels like a battle for the soul

520
00:16:47,169 --> 00:16:49,029
of the company. Are they going to

521
00:16:49,029 --> 00:16:50,330
be the premium line they always

522
00:16:50,330 --> 00:16:51,330
claim to be in their marketing?

523
00:16:51,690 --> 00:16:53,370
Or are they going to become the

524
00:16:53,370 --> 00:16:55,830
fast food chain of the seas? Highly

525
00:16:55,830 --> 00:16:57,570
efficient, very profitable, very

526
00:16:57,570 --> 00:16:59,370
consistent, but not exactly where

527
00:16:59,370 --> 00:17:02,190
you go for a gourmet luxury experience.

528
00:17:03,149 --> 00:17:04,549
That is the multi -billion dollar

529
00:17:04,549 --> 00:17:05,910
question that everyone is asking

530
00:17:05,910 --> 00:17:08,130
right now. The expert consensus

531
00:17:08,130 --> 00:17:10,049
seems to be that Chidsey is there

532
00:17:10,049 --> 00:17:12,490
to make the machine run leaner today

533
00:17:12,490 --> 00:17:14,869
so that the massive revenue from

534
00:17:14,869 --> 00:17:16,930
those future ships actually turns

535
00:17:16,930 --> 00:17:18,450
into the kind of profit margins

536
00:17:18,450 --> 00:17:20,289
that satisfy Elliott management.

537
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:21,900
So he's there to fix the plumbing,

538
00:17:22,140 --> 00:17:23,819
not necessarily to design the dinner

539
00:17:23,819 --> 00:17:25,480
menu. Exactly. But it connects right

540
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:26,640
back to our first story, doesn't

541
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,200
it? Carnival is out there spending

542
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,039
millions of dollars to put heated

543
00:17:30,039 --> 00:17:31,920
thermal loungers on a 24 -year -old

544
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,160
ship because they fundamentally

545
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:35,940
know the experience is what sells

546
00:17:35,940 --> 00:17:38,279
the tickets. They know that if the

547
00:17:38,279 --> 00:17:40,259
passenger is cold on a sea day in

548
00:17:40,259 --> 00:17:43,759
August, they won't come back. Precisely.

549
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:45,259
Carnival is upgrading the physical

550
00:17:45,259 --> 00:17:48,319
product to compete. And CLH is currently

551
00:17:48,319 --> 00:17:49,579
upgrading the corporate management

552
00:17:49,579 --> 00:17:52,319
to compete. But eventually those

553
00:17:52,319 --> 00:17:53,880
two strategies have to meet in the

554
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,880
middle. You can't have financial

555
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:57,259
discipline without a product that

556
00:17:57,259 --> 00:17:58,720
people actually want to buy. And

557
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:00,099
you certainly can't have a great

558
00:18:00,099 --> 00:18:01,700
product if you go bankrupt trying

559
00:18:01,700 --> 00:18:03,440
to build it. It seems like a constant

560
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,400
high wire tightrope walk. It is

561
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,279
a very delicate ecosystem. Yeah.

562
00:18:07,559 --> 00:18:08,700
And right now the wind is blowing

563
00:18:08,700 --> 00:18:11,200
50 knots on all sides of it. So

564
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:12,700
if you're a listener who just wants

565
00:18:12,700 --> 00:18:14,299
to book a nice vacation for your

566
00:18:14,299 --> 00:18:15,900
family next year, what does all

567
00:18:15,900 --> 00:18:17,440
this corporate drama actually mean

568
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:18,960
for you, should you be worried about

569
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:21,490
booking your next cruise? I don't

570
00:18:21,490 --> 00:18:22,470
think you need to be worried at

571
00:18:22,470 --> 00:18:23,950
all, but I do think it means we

572
00:18:23,950 --> 00:18:25,450
are entering a major transition

573
00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:27,490
period for the industry. The Wild

574
00:18:27,490 --> 00:18:29,170
West era of just building bigger

575
00:18:29,170 --> 00:18:31,069
and bigger ships with crazier attractions

576
00:18:31,069 --> 00:18:33,690
is settling into a phase of intense

577
00:18:33,690 --> 00:18:35,589
operational optimization. Meaning

578
00:18:35,589 --> 00:18:37,150
the accountants are taking over?

579
00:18:37,410 --> 00:18:39,289
Essentially, yes. You might start

580
00:18:39,289 --> 00:18:42,289
to see fewer free perks, more strategic

581
00:18:42,289 --> 00:18:44,470
upselling -like charging for access

582
00:18:44,470 --> 00:18:46,529
to those thermal suites, and just

583
00:18:46,529 --> 00:18:48,630
a tighter, more strictly managed

584
00:18:48,630 --> 00:18:50,569
operation overall. We've really

585
00:18:50,569 --> 00:18:52,509
seen the full life cycle of the

586
00:18:52,509 --> 00:18:55,069
industry today. We saw the old ships

587
00:18:55,069 --> 00:18:56,829
getting new life with Carnival's

588
00:18:56,829 --> 00:18:58,130
massive renovation in Singapore.

589
00:18:58,589 --> 00:19:00,910
We saw the harsh operational reality

590
00:19:00,910 --> 00:19:03,329
of dodging winter storms with MSC

591
00:19:03,329 --> 00:19:05,549
in the Med. And we saw the future

592
00:19:05,549 --> 00:19:07,109
strategy being fought over tooth

593
00:19:07,109 --> 00:19:08,849
and nail in the Norwegian boardroom

594
00:19:08,849 --> 00:19:11,059
in Miami. It really does validate

595
00:19:11,059 --> 00:19:12,759
that floating city concept we started

596
00:19:12,759 --> 00:19:13,960
with. You have the construction

597
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:15,940
crews, the emergency splices and

598
00:19:15,940 --> 00:19:17,460
the city council all screaming at

599
00:19:17,460 --> 00:19:18,920
each other at once, just trying

600
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:20,079
to keep the whole thing afloat.

601
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:21,660
Here is a provocative thought to

602
00:19:21,660 --> 00:19:22,859
leave you with as we wrap up this

603
00:19:22,859 --> 00:19:24,559
deep dive. We have a former Subway

604
00:19:24,559 --> 00:19:26,259
and Burger King CEO now running

605
00:19:26,259 --> 00:19:28,220
a luxury cruise holding company.

606
00:19:28,980 --> 00:19:30,799
Investors are aggressively demanding

607
00:19:30,799 --> 00:19:32,940
higher margins. Are we inevitably

608
00:19:32,940 --> 00:19:34,519
moving toward a fast food model

609
00:19:34,519 --> 00:19:36,180
of efficiency in cruising? It is

610
00:19:36,180 --> 00:19:38,039
a very valid fear. Standardization

611
00:19:38,039 --> 00:19:39,880
is great when you are buying a $5

612
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:41,900
burger. You want it to taste exactly

613
00:19:41,900 --> 00:19:43,259
the same in London as it does in

614
00:19:43,259 --> 00:19:45,519
New York. But I am not sure if that

615
00:19:45,519 --> 00:19:48,700
logic holds up for a $5 ,000 luxury

616
00:19:48,700 --> 00:19:50,859
vacation where people specifically

617
00:19:50,859 --> 00:19:52,940
want to feel special, not processed.

618
00:19:53,319 --> 00:19:55,160
And if that standardization really

619
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,640
does take hold, can the Cloud9 spa

620
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,480
experience, those heated loungers

621
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:00,859
we started this whole conversation

622
00:20:00,859 --> 00:20:03,359
with, survive the spreadsheet? Or

623
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,500
will they just be looked at as an

624
00:20:05,500 --> 00:20:07,460
unnecessary line item expense by

625
00:20:07,460 --> 00:20:09,400
a CEO who is used to counting pickle

626
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,559
slices? That is exactly what we

627
00:20:11,559 --> 00:20:12,759
will have to watch, and I would

628
00:20:12,759 --> 00:20:14,220
highly suggest keeping a close eye

629
00:20:14,220 --> 00:20:16,640
on March 2nd. March 2nd? Why? What

630
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,930
happens then? That is when NCLH

631
00:20:18,930 --> 00:20:20,329
is scheduled to report their full

632
00:20:20,329 --> 00:20:22,130
earnings. It will be the very first

633
00:20:22,130 --> 00:20:24,049
time we really get to hear the new

634
00:20:24,049 --> 00:20:25,710
leadership's tone. It will be the

635
00:20:25,710 --> 00:20:27,890
next major chapter in this drama.

636
00:20:28,170 --> 00:20:29,930
And we will get to hear John Chidsey

637
00:20:29,930 --> 00:20:31,970
speak directly to the market and

638
00:20:31,970 --> 00:20:33,630
lay out his vision. We will definitely

639
00:20:33,630 --> 00:20:34,769
be listening for that. Thanks for

640
00:20:34,769 --> 00:20:36,170
taking this deep dive with us today

641
00:20:36,170 --> 00:20:37,730
and helping us navigate these very

642
00:20:37,730 --> 00:20:39,250
choppy waters. Always a pleasure.

643
00:20:39,390 --> 00:20:40,329
Hopefully next week the weather

644
00:20:40,329 --> 00:20:42,460
is a bit calmer for everyone. Fingers

645
00:20:42,460 --> 00:20:44,380
crossed. And for everyone listening,

646
00:20:44,660 --> 00:20:46,059
whether you are dreaming of relaxing

647
00:20:46,059 --> 00:20:47,759
in a thermal suite or just trying

648
00:20:47,759 --> 00:20:49,700
to avoid a winter storm at an airport,

649
00:20:50,319 --> 00:20:52,220
keep your eyes on the horizon. We'll

650
00:20:52,220 --> 00:20:52,900
catch you next time.
