You know, for the last 20 years
or so, I feel like the cruise industry
has been playing this very specific,
very loud game of mine is bigger
than yours. Oh, absolutely. The
floating city era. Right. It was
all about scale. Like if one line
built a ship with a park, the next
one built a ship with a literal
mall inside. And then came the go
-kart track. Go -kart tracks, the
robotic bartenders, the indoor skydiving.
It was this total one -size -fits
-all approach where they just tried
to cram every single demographic.
From toddlers to retirees. Yeah,
from toddlers and swim diapers to
retirees playing bridge onto the
exact same massive vessel and just
kind of hoped everyone got along.
It was essentially the department
store model of travel everything
for everyone all the time But if
you look at the stack of research
and the maritime reports we have
on the desk for this deep dive That
era isn't just fading. It is effectively
over over Completely. We are watching
the industry fresher into these
incredibly specific niches. And
that's exactly what we're unpacking
today. We aren't looking at cruising
as this giant monolith anymore.
We've got three very specific stories
to get into. Very different stories.
Right. One from a shipyard in Germany,
one from a port in northern China,
and one from the headquarters of
Virgin Voyages. And together, they
show how the industry is hyper -specializing.
It's no longer about building the
biggest ship. It's about building
the exact right ship. for a very
specific slice of humanity. And
the contrasts are just stark. I
mean, we have Carnival basically
admitting that a roller coaster
might not be the best use of deck
space. We have a Chinese operator
turning a mineral transport logistics
network into a tourism empire. Which
is wild. Right. And then we have
the adults -only model making so
much money that it is literally
forcing legacy lines to rewrite
their own rule books. So let's start
with the hardware, because I know
you love the engineering side of
things. We are going to Pappenberg,
Germany. Ah, the Meyer Werft shipyard.
Yes, Meyer Werft. If you listener
have ever seen those crazy photos
of massive cruise ships being built
indoors, it's usually there. And
they are currently putting together
the carnival festival which is a
massive deal this is the fourth
ship in their excel class now usually
by the time you get to the fourth
ship in a class the excitement kind
of dies down a bit because it's
just a copy paste of the previous
ones by just stamping them out exactly
but the festival is different they
are making significant changes to
the physical structure itself and
the construction updates coming
out of pappenberg are pretty wild
they just hit a major milestone
they lifted the bridge into place
but In the shipyard, they don't
call it the bridge. They call it
Block 68. Block 68. It sounds so
mundane. But you have to understand
the scale here. The bridge of a
modern mega ship isn't just a room
with steering wheel and some windows.
No, it's huge. It is a massive multi
deck slice of the ship's superstructure.
It houses all the navigation equipment,
the captain's quarters, critical
safety systems. It is incredibly
heavy. How heavy are we actually
talking? Well, to lift it onto the
hull, they had to use a specific
800 ton crane called the Kaiser
Radler. The Imperial Eagle. That
is a serious name for a piece of
machinery. It absolutely needs to
be. The block itself weighs roughly
the same as 500 midsize sedans.
Wow. And they aren't just lifting
it up and dropping it on top. They
have to thread a needle with it.
The shipyard released some data
on the precision involved here,
and it is mind boggling. They positioned
this massive steel block within
three ten thousands of one percent
of the ship's total length. OK,
hang on. Three ten thousands of
one percent. Yeah. Why does it need
to be that precise? I mean, it's
a ship that's what, three hundred
and forty five point three nine
meters long. If they're off by an
inch or two, does it really matter?
It matters immensely. You have to
think of a ship like a living organism.
It has veins and arteries. Like
plumbing and stuff. Exactly. Pipes
for water sewage fuel and massive
bundles of electrical cabling running
from the engine room all the way
up to the bridge. And these are
all prefabricated inside the blocks.
If block 68 is off by two inches,
those pipes don't line up. Oh man.
Yeah, you can't just shove a steel
block into place. If you miss that
alignment, you are talking about
weeks of cutting steel and re -welding
to fix the connections. It's a hugely
expensive disaster. So it's not
just welding a box on top, it's
literally connecting the brain to
the nervous system. Precisely. And
they nailed it. And they're moving
incredibly fast, too. The report
from EMS Precab. They're the ones
building the cabins, right? Right,
the cabin builders. They reported
they've already finished 949 crew
cabins in just 25 weeks. That seems
insanely fast. How do you build
almost a thousand bedrooms in six
months? Modular construction. They
build the cabins in a factory nearby.
The beds, the lights, the... carpets,
everything is installed. And then
they just slide them into the ship
like drawers in a dresser. Wow.
And now they're moving to serial
production of the passenger cabins.
Over twenty six hundred of them
for a ship that will have a maximum
capacity of over sixty six hundred
guests. It's roughly one hundred
and eighty three thousand gross
tons. But here is where the story
shifts from cool engineering to
actual business strategy. You mentioned
earlier that this is the fourth
Excel class ship. The previous three
The Mardi Gras, the Celebration,
the Jubilee, they all have one very
specific, very famous feature on
the top deck. The Bolt. Right, the
Bolt. The first roller coaster at
sea. It was a massive deal. It was
huge news. Every commercial carnival
ran, showed people screaming on
a roller coaster in the middle of
the ocean. It was their main differentiator.
But on the Festival, it's gone.
Completely scrapped. So why did
it break? Was it unsafe? No, no,
it worked fine. But you have to
look at the economics of a roller
coaster versus what they're replacing
it with. A roller coaster has terrible
throughput. You can only get so
many people on it per hour. It breaks
down sometimes. It requires intense
maintenance. And honestly, once
you ride it once or twice, are you
really going to ride it every single
day of your seven day cruise? Probably
not. It's totally a one and done
kind of thing. Exactly. It's a marketing
hook to get you to book the trip,
but it doesn't keep you occupied
for hours once you're on board.
Now look at what they are replacing
it with. An expanded Carnival Waterworks
park, and more importantly what
they're calling immersive music
spaces. Immersive music spaces?
Which kind of sounds like marketing
speak for a really nice bar with
a band. It is, but think about the
revenue generation. A music venue
holds hundreds of people at once.
They sit there for two, maybe three
hours. They buy drinks. They socialize.
They come back the next night because
the band is playing a different
set. Right. The repeat value is...
Way higher. Carnival president Christine
Duffy called music the universal
language. But the business translation
here is that music is a sticky amenity.
Sticky. Yeah. It keeps people in
the revenue generating zones of
the ship much longer than a two
minute roller coaster ride ever
could. That is fascinating. So they
hooked us with a thrill ride on
the first three ships established
the whole brand identity. And now
they're optimizing the fourth ship
for actual guest behavior and onboard
revenue. Precisely. They are shifting
from, look at this crazy mechanical
thing we have, to look at this vibe
we created. And for you, the listener,
this ship launches on May 19th,
2027 out of Port Canaveral. Doing
the Caribbean runs, right? Yep.
Classic Caribbean in Bahamas, including
stops at the new Celebration Key.
So if you want the coaster, you
book the Mardi Gras. If you want
the immersive music and the huge
water park, you book the festival.
It's specialization within the exact
same fleet. OK, so that's the American
giant tweaking its formula. Now,
I want to fly halfway across the
world to China because there is
a fascinating pivot happening there
that I don't think many people in
the West are really paying attention
to. Oh, the Tianjin Oriental International
cruise story. And if you thought
carnival swapping out a roller coaster
was a big retrofit, wait until you
hear what these guys are doing.
Right, because they aren't building
a new ship. No, they bought a used
one. They acquired a vessel they're
calling the Vision, which they delayed
the maiden voyage of to March 3rd,
2026. But any cruise nerd listening
to this will know this ship by its
former name, the Costa Magica. Oh,
wow. The Costa Magica that was built
back in 2004. Yeah. It's a Joe Farkas
design. Yeah. Very colorful, very
Italian, lots of neon and distinct
shapes. It is a very, very specific
aesthetic. And right now it is sitting
in the Kingdow Bay High Heavy Industry
Shipyard undergoing a massive transformation.
They aren't just changing the carpet
in the hallways. They are fundamentally.
reprogramming the ship. Reprogramming
it for who, though? For what they
call the northern strategy. See,
when we talk about the Chinese cruise
market, everyone always talks about
Shanghai. Shanghai is basically
the Miami of China. It's huge. It's
glitzy. And it is absolutely packed
with competition. Royal Caribbean
is there. Adora Cruise is there.
It's a shark tank. So Tianjin Oriental
is basically saying we don't want
to fight the sharks. Exactly. They
are moving north. They are basing
the vision in Tianjin and their
other ship, the Dream. places like
Dalian and Qingdao. They are targeting
a massive population in northern
China that is vastly underserved.
It's like an American cruise line
deciding to just skip Miami and
Fort Lauderdale entirely to dominate
the market out of Philadelphia or
Boston. That is a perfect analogy.
And because they're targeting a
totally different demographic, specifically
multigenerational Chinese families,
the hardware of the ship has to
change. You can't just run a loud
Italian party ship for a Chinese
grandmother and her grandkids. So
what does that refit actually look
like in practice? It's deep. They're
ripping out bars that would be super
popular in Europe and replacing
them with traditional tea houses
or mahjong rooms. The dining spaces
are getting a complete overhaul.
to feature local northern Chinese
cuisine. But honestly, the most
interesting part of the story isn't
the ship itself, it's the owner.
Tangshan Oriental Shipping. Yeah,
I looked them up with the notes.
They are at a hospitality company.
Not at all. They move minerals.
They're an industrial shipping firm.
Which sounds incredibly odd, Reidy.
You'd think, what do guys who move
coal and iron ore know about running
a floating resort? I mean, yeah,
it seems like a completely different
skill set. Yeah. It is on the surface.
But think about the underlying supply
chain. A cruise line is essentially
a massive logistics company that
also happens to serve food and entertainment.
Tangshan Oriental already has the
docks. They have the fuel contracts,
the maritime tracking systems, the
relationships with the port authorities.
They have all the hard infrastructure
figured out. Exactly. Buying the
ship and hiring hotel directors
is the easy part for them. It shows
how incredibly diverse capital is
entering the cruise space right
now because they see the profit
potential. And they're expanding
fast. They have the vision, the
dream, and they're introducing another
ship called the Ideal, which is
formally intended for the Neonix
brand. And part of that profit potential
comes from removing friction for
the passenger. You mentioned something
in the research about visa -free
travel. Can we break that down?
Why is that such a massive unlock
for this market? This is the killer
app of their entire business model.
They are running six -day itineraries
to South Korea. Places like Busan,
Jeju, Incheon. Now typically international
travel for a Chinese citizen can
involve complex visa applications
fees, long waiting periods. It's
a ton of friction. Right. Nobody
wants to go stand at an embassy
just to take a family vacation.
Exactly. But these specific cruise
itineraries are designed around
visa free travel. You show up at
the port in Tianjin with your passport.
You get on the ship. You visit Korea.
You come back. It turns an international
vacation into something as easy
as taking a bus to the next town.
That is huge for multi -generational
families. It is a game changer.
And the pricing reflects that exact
accessibility. Their entry level
fares are starting around 2499 Chinese
yuan. Which is very affordable.
Highly affordable. They are going
for sheer volume. They want the
first time cruiser, the retirees,
the huge families who have never
been to sea before. While Carnival
is fighting tooth and nail for the
premium traveler in the Caribbean.
Tangent Oriental is building a regional
bus service at sea. And I honestly
mean that as a compliment. It's
incredibly smart business. It really
highlights that there isn't just
one single cruise market. There
are dozens of them operating simultaneously.
But speaking of markets, let's pivot
to the one that is currently just
printing money. The one that explicitly
bans the exact target audience of
that Tianjin ship. The adults -only
movement. We have to talk about
Virgin Voyages. Because every time
we look at their earnings reports
lately, the graph just goes straight
up. It's unbelievable. They just
reported that January 2026 was the
highest booking month in the company's
entire history. Wow. And 2025 saw
a nearly 30 % increase in gross
ticket revenue and a 20 % rise in
overall bookings. But the key phrase
they use in the release is that
they're are sailing at, quote, full
commercial load. Full commercial
load. Translate that for us. Does
that just mean every single cabin
is full? It means every cabin is
full, yes, but it implies a lot
more than just head count. It means
they are hitting their absolute
maximum revenue potential per passenger.
See, a ship full of families is
great, but kids don't buy $15 martinis.
They don't sit down and play blackjack
for three hours. Right. They don't
book $200 spa treatments. Bingo.
A ship with 2 ,500 adults generates
vastly more onward revenue than
a ship with 2 ,000 adults and 500
kids. The profit margins on an adults
-only ship are naturally just so
much better if you can actually
fill the rooms. And Virgin is clearly
filling them. They are packing them
in. Their CEO, Nirmal Sivarimutu,
said, quote, kid -free travel is
not a niche category, it's a movement.
And looking at the broader economic
numbers, he's not wrong. The adult
-only travel market is projected
to literally double from $9 .2 billion
in 2024 to $18 .1 billion by 2033.
The idea of a week where I literally
cannot hear a single tantrum at
the pool is very, very appealing.
It kind of sells itself. It really
does. People just want to switch
off and reconnect. And Virgin has
finally completed their initial
fleet rollout. The fourth ship,
the Brilliant Lady, launched late
in 2025. So they now have four identical
sisters sailing globally. Scarlet
Valiant, Resilient, and Brilliant.
And they really lean into the model,
too. No main dining room, no buffet.
Over 20 included eateries, hammocks
on the terraces. Exactly. But because
this model is working so undeniably
well, the competition is starting
to panic. Or at least they are starting
to aggressively copy it. So who
is jumping on the bandwagon here?
O'Shaena Cruz has just made a massive
move. Effective for all bookings,
after January 7th, 2026, their entire
fleet is going 18 plus. The whole
fleet, that is a huge risk for a
legacy line to just cut out families
completely. It is a calculated risk.
They looked at their internal demographics
and realized, you know, we aren't
really serving families that well
anyway, so let's just fully lean
into the adult market. Even Carnival,
the fun ship line, the one with
the Dr. Seuss breakfasts, they are
adding specific kid -free transatlantic
and Mediterranean voyages in 2026.
Just dipping their toe in the water.
Right. And you see major design
changes, too. Lines like Norwegian
with their spice H2O areas and Royal
Caribbean with the solarium. They
are physically expanding their adult
only zones, even on their giant
family focused ships. Wait, I saw
a counterpoint in the source material
today. P &O cruises. They are doing
the exact opposite. Yes. And this
is why I love following this industry
right now. It's 4D chess. P &O announced
they are actually opening their
traditionally adult -only ships,
the Aurora and the Arcadia, to families
starting in December 2026. That
seems crazy. Everyone else is rushing
toward no kids and P &O is standing
there saying bring them all on.
It seems counterintuitive, but think
about the market dynamics for a
second. If Virgin Oceania Viking
Saga, if they are all viciously
fighting for the adults only crowd,
that space is suddenly getting very
crowded. Meanwhile, if you are a
family who wants a premium, traditional
British cruise experience. Like
not a megaship with water slides,
but a real classic ship. Exactly.
Where do you go? You really don't
have many options left. Exactly.
Pino sees a massive vacuum. They
are zagging while... Everyone else
zigs. They are betting that there
is a premium family market that
is being completely ignored by this
gold rush to ban kids. It's a brilliant
counter move. It all comes back
to that main theme of specialization.
It feels like the days of just calling
a travel agent and booking a quote
unquote cruise are totally gone.
You have to really know exactly
what you are buying. You do. You
have to audit your own desires as
a trailer. Because if you book the
Carnival Festival expecting an adrenaline
roller coaster, you'll be disappointed.
If you book the Tianjin Oriental
Ship expecting a quiet library and
a burger, you'll be shocked by the
bustling mahjong rooms and the regional
cuisine. And if you book Virgin
expecting a traditional captain's
dinner in a tuxedo, you're going
to be very confused by the drag
brunch. Right. It puts the burden
on the consumer to be informed.
But it also means you are so much
more likely to find a product that
actually fits you perfectly. The
average cruise passenger just doesn't
exist anymore. The industry finally
realized that trying to please everyone
usually results in a mediocre experience
for everyone. So we had the vibe
shift in Germany moving from mechanical
thrills to social spaces. We have
the regional utility and family
focus in China. and we have the
adult escape going global with virgin.
Before we wrap up this deep dive,
I want to ask you, where does this
go next? If adults only is now a
mainstream category, What is the
next hyper niche we're going to
see? I've been thinking about this
a lot, actually. The shipbuilding
technology is allowing for smaller,
much more efficient ships now. I
genuinely wonder if we will see
the rise of the dedicated remote
work ship. Oh, like a floating digital
nomad colony. Exactly. Rip out the
giant casino, which, honestly, millennials
and Gen Z aren't using as much anyway,
and put in a massive high -tech
co -working space. Give it fiber
optic satellite internet. Have the
ship stay in port for three or four
days at a time so you can work your
hours during the day and explore
a new city at night. I would sign
up for that in a heartbeat. No vacation
days used, but I wake up in Lisbon.
Sign me up immediately. Right. Or
maybe even ships dedicated to hyper
-specific music genres. We have
theme cruises now, like the 80s
rock cruise, but those are just
temporary charter rentals on regular
ships. Could we see a small ship
that is permanently built as a jazz
club at sea, designed acoustically
from the hull up for that exact
purpose? Wow. The segmentation really
is just getting started. It is such
a fascinating time to watch these
billion dollar bets play out across
the globe. It certainly is. Well,
listener, I want you to think about
it. If you had a boarding pass in
your hand tomorrow, which gangway
are you walking up? Are you heading
for the high tech musical party
on the festival, the easy access
family trip on the vision or the
kid free sanctuary on the brilliant
lady? Let us know what you think.
Thanks for diving in with us today
and we will catch you on the next
one.