WEBVTT

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In March of 2003, the United States military

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dropped thousands of leaflets all over Iraq.

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Right. The psychological operations dropped.

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Exactly. And the message printed on them was,

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you know, essentially a guarantee. It said, if

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Iraqi soldiers lay down their weapons and refuse

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to fight, they'll be allowed to go home. Keep

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their dignity. Yeah, keep their dignity and help

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rebuild a new posts a domination. Which sounds

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like a solid strategy on paper. It does. But

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then, weeks later, after the government actually

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falls, the coalition Provisional Authority issues

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an order that just straight up fires all 375

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,000 of those men. Unbelievable. Just permanently

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dissolve their military. Send them home without

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a pension, without a paycheck, nothing. And I

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mean, the immediate consequence of that wasn't

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just, you know, mass unemployment. No, of course

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not. It was the overnight creation of this highly

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trained, deeply alienated shadow economy of violence.

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And that is exactly what we are focusing on today.

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Welcome to today's Deep Dive. Today's a Monday,

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2026 0323, and we are unpacking the defining

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geopolitical earthquake of the 21st century.

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The Iraq War from 2003 to 2011. Right. And you,

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listening, are probably familiar with the broad

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strokes of this timeline. Our source for this

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deep dive is this incredibly comprehensive, meticulously

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detailed Wikipedia article covering the entirety

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of the conflict. It is a massive document. It

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really is. But our mission today isn't to just,

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like, read you a timeline. We want to cut through

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the sheer density of this history and extract

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the crucial, you know, aha moments. Yeah, the

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underlying logic of how this war started, why

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it unfolded the way it did, and how it permanently

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reshaped the modern world give you a shortcut

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to being deeply well informed. But before we

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get into the mechanics of all that, there's a

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really important parameter we need to set. For

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sure. Given the gravity of the source material,

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establishing this baseline is just non -negotiable.

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Yeah. So our source material contains highly

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politically charged content. I mean, it goes

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deep into the debated justifications for the

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war, the actions of various political administrations,

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both left -wing and right -wing, and frankly,

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severe human rights abuses. Committed by all

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sides, really. Exactly. Coalition forces, insurgent

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groups, sectarian militias. So I want to be explicitly

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clear with you listening right now. We are never

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taking a side here. Never. We are not endorsing

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the viewpoints or the actions described. We are

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strictly, impartially reporting the factual ideas

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contained within the original source material.

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And when you look objectively at that record,

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the sheer scale of the event just demands our

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attention. It's staggering. Right. I mean, we're

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analyzing a conflict that stretched for nearly

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a decade, cost trillions of dollars, and completely

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changed global geopolitics for So let's look

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at the spark. Let's start with the immediate

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post -9 -11 climate. The source details this

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chillingly rapid pivot. Oh, the speed of it is

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wild. On the actual day of the September 11 attacks,

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I mean, the Pentagon is literally still burning,

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and Defense Secretary Donan Rumsfeld is already

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instructing his aides to get, quote, best info

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fast on whether they could strike Saddam Hussein.

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Simultaneously with Osama Bin Laden. Right. On

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day one. Which really reveals the prevailing

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mindset of the Bush administration's national

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security team at that time. How so? Well, many

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of these officials built their worldviews during

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the Cold War, you know. They operated under this

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preconceived assumption that an attack as devastatingly

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sophisticated as 9 -11 simply had to have the

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backing of a traditional nation state. Oh, I

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see. Yeah, non -state actors pulling off something

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of that magnitude just didn't fit into their

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established paradigm. OK, let's unpack this because

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that paradigm created a catastrophic intelligence

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disconnect. I mean, the CIA. British intelligence,

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and later the exhaustive 9 -11 commission, all

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arrive at the exact same conclusion. Which was

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that there were zero collaborative ties between

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Saddam Hussein and al -Qaeda. Zero. And then,

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regarding the whole weapons of mass destruction

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thing, UN inspector Hans Blix was actively on

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the ground in Iraq. Right, conducting actual

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searches. Yeah, and reporting that his teams

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were finding absolutely nothing. The entire rationale

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for the invasion essentially rested on fabricated

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intelligence. Primarily from that single discredited

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informant, right? Yes. codename Curveball. And

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then Secretary of State Colin Powell presents

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those fabrications to the UN as hard facts. It's

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just wild. I'd like to give you an analogy. It's

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like deciding a neighbor is dangerous based on

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a totally baseless rumor. Having the police investigate

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and find absolutely nothing, but you go ahead

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and kick their door down anyway just because

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you have this preemptive feeling. What's fascinating

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here is how the newly formalized Bush Doctrine

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provided the actual bureaucratic cover for that

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cognitive bias. Right, the doctrine of preemption.

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Exactly. It shifted American foreign policy toward

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preemptive war, this idea that the U .S. couldn't

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wait for a threat to fully materialize before

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striking. Right. And when you adopt preemption

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as your core philosophy, you inevitably lower

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the threshold for actionable intelligence. You

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start relying on worst -case scenario assumptions.

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instead of hard evidence. And they push forward

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despite massive global opposition. I mean, 36

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million people protesting globally. UN Secretary

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General Kofi Annan explicitly declaring the invasion

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illegal. Said the momentum was locked in. It

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was. So the door gets kicked down in defiance

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of international consensus. Which brings us to

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March 2003, and the shock and awe campaign begins.

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The conventional military phase. Right. And from

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a strictly conventional standpoint, it's a remarkably

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swift victory. Baghdad falls by April, they popple

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Saddam's statue. Yeah, if you stop the clock

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right there, it looks like a total tactical triumph.

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But dismantling a regime is entirely different

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from governing a fractured state, right? Completely

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different. The U .S. military decapitated the

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sovereign government, which instantly transferred

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this massive burden of civil control to the coalition

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provisional authority. The CPA. Right. Led by

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Paul Bremer. Right. And this is where the CPA

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makes a series of unforced errors that honestly

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just defy belief. Bremer's first major move is

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debathification. Right, using post -WWII denazification

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as their blueprint. Exactly. So he fires somewhere

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between 85 ,000 and 100 ,000 government workers.

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But he doesn't just target the top political

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cronies. No, it went way deeper. It included

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like 40 ,000 school teachers, hospital administrators,

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civil engineers who were only bath party members

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out of sheer professional necessity. And stripping

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away that middle management layer just gutted

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the country's institutional memory overnight.

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Nobody knew how to run anything. Literally. You

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had no one who knew how to route the power grid

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or manage municipal water supplies. But it was

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CPA Order 2 that really set the stage for disaster.

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Here's where it gets really interesting. Because

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Order 2 disbanded the 375 ,000 -strong Iraqi

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army without pay. totally reversing the promise

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of those leaflets we talked about. It dismantled

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the only institution capable of maintaining security.

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Right. And logically, the strategy here is just

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completely absent. You've just conquered a foreign

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nation. Why would your first administrative act

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be to take hundreds of thousands of men who are

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highly trained in infantry tactics, intimately

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familiar with the local geography and heavily

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armed, heavily armed. Yes. And make them suddenly

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unemployed and deeply furious at the occupying

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force. Aren't you basically just creating and

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funding your own opposition? If we connect this

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to the bigger picture, this wasn't just an administrative

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misstep. It actively transformed a defeated.

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military into the backbone of a fierce organized

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insurgency. It's just devastating. The CPA assumed

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these men would just nicely integrate into a

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new democratic society. Instead, they took their

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command structures, their local loyalties, and

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went underground. Which created a massive power

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vacuum. Exactly. It completely destroyed civil

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order. The occupying forces just didn't have

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the troop density to secure the country, which

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led to widespread looting. And we aren't just

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talking about stealing office furniture here.

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No, not at all. The Pentagon later admitted that

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because coalition forces couldn't secure the

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perimeters of former military bases, insurgents

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systematically looted 250 ,000 tons of munitions.

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A quarter of a million tons. High explosives,

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artillery shells, small arms. The very soldiers

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Bremer had just fired now had access to an endless,

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unsecured supply chain. Those stockpiles literally

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became the fuel for the insurgency. Which accelerates

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this terrifying descent into chaos between 2004

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and 2006. We see the rise of these localized

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factions. Al -Qaeda in Iraq under Zarqawi, the

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Mahdi army. But the pivotal moment, the true

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point of no return, is the 2006 Alaskari mosque

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bombing. Oh, absolutely. That single bombing

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sparks a full blown Sunni Shia civil war. The

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metrics are just apocalyptic. Murder rates in

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Baghdad tripled to 33 deaths a day. Yeah, the

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violence shifted into organized, localized ethnic

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cleansing. I want you, the listener, to try and

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imagine surviving in that environment. The police

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force has dissolved. Sectarian militias are cleansing

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your neighborhood. And heavily armed occupying

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forces are caught in extreme urban combat right

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outside your door. And again, returning to our

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impartiality parameters, the brutal reality is

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that no side was spared from committing grave

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human rights violations here. No, the source

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material meticulously documents atrocities across

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the board. The insurgents, particularly under

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Zarqawi, relied on maximizing terror. Suicide

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bombers targeting crowded markets, sectarian

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death squads, publicized beheadings of journalists

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and contractors. And on the coalition side. The

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historical record is equally grim. You have the

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Abi -Ghraib torture scandal. Right, systematic

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abuse of detainees. You have the Haditha massacre.

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Yeah. And the highly controversial use of white

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phosphorus by U .S. forces in Fallujah. What

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the history shows is a total collapse of the

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rules of engagement. The war had completely mutated

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from a resistance against a foreign invader into

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this incredibly complex sectarian civil war.

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Where Iraqi civilians paid the ultimate price.

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Exactly. So with the country tearing itself apart,

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the US had to drastically change its strategy,

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which leads to the 2007 surge. Right. A massive

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final gamble. President Bush sends over 20 ,000

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combat reinforcements under General David Petraeus.

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But it wasn't just the troops that changed things,

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right? No, it was pairing those troops with the

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Anbar Awakening. Ah, right. The U .S. military

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recognized that local Sunni Arab tribes were

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actually getting fed up with al -Qaeda in Iraq's

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extreme brutality. So U .S. commanders began

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actively funding and arming these Sunni tribal

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leaders. Many of whom were literally former insurgents.

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Exactly. They were shooting at U .S. soldiers

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just months prior. It's wild. They literally

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bought off the localized power brokers to stop

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shooting at them and aim at al -Qaeda instead.

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And strictly in terms of metrics, it worked.

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The Pentagon recorded a 40 to 80 percent drop

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in violence. That relative stabilization paved

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the way for the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement.

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The SOFA, which legally set the deadline for

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the 2011 U .S. withdrawal. Right. Under President

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Obama. So what's this all mean? Did the military

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surge actually pacify the country? Or did paying

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former insurgents just buy a temporary, incredibly

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fragile peace? This raises an important question

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that defines the whole legacy of the war. Because

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while the violence dropped, the underlying ethno

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-sectarian cracks were never actually fixed.

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Europe just papered over with cash and combat

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power. Exactly. General Odierno, the commander

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of coalition forces, even warned that in military

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terms, transitions are the most dangerous time.

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And that warning was spot on. In 2011, the U

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.S. officially packs up and leaves, and the fragile

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peace immediately shatters. The power vacuum

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returned instantly. Which leads directly to the

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rise of ISIS. Right. By 2014, ISIS captures major

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cities like Mosul, declaring a caliphate and

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dragging the U .S. military right back into the

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conflict. It reveals the true, staggering, long

00:11:57.409 --> 00:12:00.059
-term costs of the indasion. Let's break those

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down. Financially, the direct cost was around

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$1 .7 trillion. But when you factor in compound

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interest on the borrowed money plus decades of

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future veterans' health care, macroeconomists

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estimate it could hit $3 to $6 trillion. Trillion.

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With a T. Yeah. But the human toll is what's

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truly difficult to grasp. Estimates range from

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150 ,000 to over a million Iraqi deaths, plus

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over 4 ,800 coalition military deaths. And we

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also have to look at the environmental devastation.

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Oh, right. The source goes into detail on that.

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Over 130 million gallons of oil spilled, 25 ,000

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tons of bombs dropped, and the devastating use

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of depleted uranium munitions, which medical

00:12:40.480 --> 00:12:42.759
studies have linked to severe spikes in cancer

00:12:42.759 --> 00:12:44.700
and birth defects, especially in cities like

00:12:44.700 --> 00:12:47.320
Philly. And globally. Instead of defeating terror,

00:12:47.860 --> 00:12:49.840
a U .S. National Intelligence Council report

00:12:49.840 --> 00:12:52.639
concluded the war basically became a cause celebre

00:12:52.639 --> 00:12:55.220
for jihadists worldwide. It acted as a global

00:12:55.220 --> 00:12:57.360
recruiting and training ground. It's such a dark

00:12:57.360 --> 00:13:00.529
historical irony. An invasion justified to prevent

00:13:00.529 --> 00:13:04.649
global terrorism ended up creating ISIS, a multinational

00:13:04.649 --> 00:13:06.870
terrorist organization. While simultaneously

00:13:06.870 --> 00:13:10.370
emboldening Iran, Iran is really the definitive

00:13:10.370 --> 00:13:13.769
geopolitical victor of this conflict. By removing

00:13:13.769 --> 00:13:17.289
Saddam, the U .S. eliminated Iran's primary regional

00:13:17.289 --> 00:13:19.649
rival and effectively guaranteed a Shia -led

00:13:19.649 --> 00:13:21.990
government with ties to Tehran would take power.

00:13:22.220 --> 00:13:24.539
It completely shifted the balance of power in

00:13:24.539 --> 00:13:26.720
the Middle East. And for you listening, this

00:13:26.720 --> 00:13:29.019
is why it matters today. When you see news about

00:13:29.019 --> 00:13:32.120
the Middle East, ISIS, the national debt, or

00:13:32.120 --> 00:13:34.639
veterans issues, The shadow of the decisions

00:13:34.639 --> 00:13:37.320
made in 2003 is still driving those headlines.

00:13:37.740 --> 00:13:40.000
We are still living in the aftermath. We really

00:13:40.000 --> 00:13:42.179
are. Well, we've covered an immense amount of

00:13:42.179 --> 00:13:44.200
ground today. Thank you so much for helping navigate

00:13:44.200 --> 00:13:46.860
this incredibly dense source material. Of course.

00:13:46.919 --> 00:13:49.620
It's complex, but it's essential history to understand.

00:13:49.879 --> 00:13:51.820
Absolutely. Before we wrap up, I want to leave

00:13:51.820 --> 00:13:53.700
you, the listener, with a final thought to mull

00:13:53.700 --> 00:13:56.679
over. Our source notes that the deeply flawed

00:13:56.679 --> 00:13:59.580
intelligence used to justify the Iraq War is

00:13:59.580 --> 00:14:01.700
actually being weaponized on the global stage

00:14:01.700 --> 00:14:04.110
right now. Yeah, this is a crucial point. Countries

00:14:04.110 --> 00:14:07.610
like Russia actively cite the 2003 invasion to

00:14:07.610 --> 00:14:10.110
deflect criticism for their own illegal invasions,

00:14:10.230 --> 00:14:12.610
like in Ukraine. They point to Colin Powell at

00:14:12.610 --> 00:14:15.509
the UN and say, look, the West does it too. So

00:14:15.509 --> 00:14:18.809
consider this. Did the 2003 invasion of Iraq

00:14:18.809 --> 00:14:22.009
not just destabilize the Middle East, but permanently

00:14:22.009 --> 00:14:24.409
shatter the moral authority of the West and the

00:14:24.409 --> 00:14:26.990
very concept of international law for the rest

00:14:26.990 --> 00:14:29.889
of the 21st century? It's a heavy question. It

00:14:29.889 --> 00:14:32.179
is. Something to think about. Keep questioning

00:14:32.179 --> 00:14:33.879
what you know and we'll catch you on the next

00:14:33.879 --> 00:14:34.399
deep dive.
