WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.299 Imagine fighting the longest, most expensive 00:00:03.299 --> 00:00:05.500 war in your entire nation's history. I mean, 00:00:05.599 --> 00:00:07.580 trillions of dollars spent. Yeah, staggering 00:00:07.580 --> 00:00:09.980 amount of money. Right. Hundreds of thousands 00:00:09.980 --> 00:00:14.109 of lives lost. two full decades of just relentless 00:00:14.109 --> 00:00:17.769 combat spanning four different presidential administrations. 00:00:17.910 --> 00:00:19.629 It's hard to even wrap your head around that 00:00:19.629 --> 00:00:22.109 kind of timeline. It really is. And on the very 00:00:22.109 --> 00:00:24.289 last day, after all that blood and treasure, 00:00:24.670 --> 00:00:27.269 you basically hand the keys to the country right 00:00:27.269 --> 00:00:29.949 back to the exact same people you invaded to 00:00:29.949 --> 00:00:32.810 overthrow 20 years prior. Yeah. That isn't some 00:00:32.810 --> 00:00:36.890 dystopian novel. That is the stark paradoxical 00:00:36.890 --> 00:00:39.350 reality of the war in Afghanistan. It is the 00:00:39.350 --> 00:00:42.079 absolute definition. of a geopolitical closed 00:00:42.079 --> 00:00:44.560 loop. I mean, a 20 -year conflict that ended 00:00:44.560 --> 00:00:46.820 almost exactly where it began. With the Taliban 00:00:46.820 --> 00:00:49.679 empowering Kabul. Exactly. And, well, that is 00:00:49.679 --> 00:00:52.299 the profound, staggering reality we are tackling 00:00:52.299 --> 00:00:55.619 today. You are joining us for a deep dive into 00:00:55.619 --> 00:00:58.039 the war in Afghanistan. And our mission here 00:00:58.039 --> 00:01:00.740 is explicitly clear. Right. We are going to guide 00:01:00.740 --> 00:01:03.159 you chronologically through the major turning 00:01:03.159 --> 00:01:05.579 points of this conflict. Tracking the journey 00:01:05.579 --> 00:01:07.560 from the initial invasion, you know, right in 00:01:07.560 --> 00:01:10.769 the shadow of 9 -11. All the way to the incredibly 00:01:10.769 --> 00:01:14.629 chaotic withdrawal in 2021. And we're relying 00:01:14.629 --> 00:01:18.650 strictly on a massive compilation of historical 00:01:18.650 --> 00:01:21.629 data and documentation to construct this timeline. 00:01:21.849 --> 00:01:24.189 because our goal is to help make sense of an 00:01:24.189 --> 00:01:27.629 overwhelming complex web of events. Right. We 00:01:27.629 --> 00:01:30.329 want to understand not just the timeline, but 00:01:30.329 --> 00:01:33.069 the actual mechanics of the conflict, like how 00:01:33.069 --> 00:01:35.510 and why it happened the way it did. And just 00:01:35.510 --> 00:01:38.090 to be clear up front, we are going to examine 00:01:38.090 --> 00:01:41.269 the facts impartially across multiple international 00:01:41.269 --> 00:01:43.730 administrations. Looking at the structural realities 00:01:43.730 --> 00:01:46.030 on the ground without taking any political sides, 00:01:46.530 --> 00:01:48.489 we are simply following the historical record 00:01:48.489 --> 00:01:51.650 here. So whether you are trying to grasp the 00:01:51.650 --> 00:01:54.329 nuances of modern geopolitics or, you know, maybe 00:01:54.329 --> 00:01:56.510 you want to understand a pivotal piece of recent 00:01:56.510 --> 00:01:59.189 history. Or you just want to know how a two decade 00:01:59.189 --> 00:02:01.510 global effort actually unfolded on the ground. 00:02:01.870 --> 00:02:04.209 This deep dive is completely tailored for you. 00:02:04.609 --> 00:02:06.409 OK, let's unpack this. We have to start before 00:02:06.409 --> 00:02:08.689 the first shot is even fired by the United States. 00:02:08.990 --> 00:02:11.389 Yeah, you really have to. To understand 2001, 00:02:11.909 --> 00:02:14.469 we need to know what Afghanistan actually looked 00:02:14.469 --> 00:02:17.830 like in the late 1990s. Right. So set the scene 00:02:17.830 --> 00:02:21.210 for us. You have to picture a country utterly 00:02:21.210 --> 00:02:24.930 devastated by decades of prior conflict. First, 00:02:24.949 --> 00:02:27.409 you have the Soviet invasion in the 1980s. Which 00:02:27.409 --> 00:02:30.710 was brutal. Incredibly brutal. And that was followed 00:02:30.710 --> 00:02:33.810 immediately by a vicious civil war in the 1990s. 00:02:33.830 --> 00:02:35.729 And out of that chaos, that's where the Taliban 00:02:35.729 --> 00:02:37.990 emerges, right? Exactly. They originally formed 00:02:37.990 --> 00:02:40.210 from groups of religious students. I mean, the 00:02:40.210 --> 00:02:42.830 word Taliban literally means student. Huh, I 00:02:42.830 --> 00:02:44.909 didn't actually know that. Yeah. And their initial 00:02:44.909 --> 00:02:47.370 appeal to the Afghan population was actually 00:02:47.370 --> 00:02:49.710 rooted in a desire for order. Because the people 00:02:49.710 --> 00:02:52.610 were just exhausted, I imagine. Utterly exhausted 00:02:52.610 --> 00:02:55.830 by the brutality of local warlords. So the Taliban 00:02:55.830 --> 00:02:58.629 promised to end warlordism and establish security. 00:02:58.849 --> 00:03:01.409 Albeit through a violently strict adherence to 00:03:01.409 --> 00:03:03.930 their interpretation of Islamic law. Right, it 00:03:03.930 --> 00:03:06.870 was a severe trade -off. But militarily speaking, 00:03:07.110 --> 00:03:09.289 it worked. Because by the year 2001, they controlled 00:03:09.289 --> 00:03:12.050 roughly 90 % of the country. Yeah, they had founded 00:03:12.050 --> 00:03:15.330 the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The only 00:03:15.330 --> 00:03:18.349 real resistance left was this coalition known 00:03:18.349 --> 00:03:20.770 as the Northern Alliance. And they were basically 00:03:20.770 --> 00:03:23.569 boxed into the northeast corner of the country. 00:03:23.990 --> 00:03:26.090 Exactly. Geographically protected up in the Panjshir 00:03:26.090 --> 00:03:30.229 Valley. So the Taliban were the dominant, virtually 00:03:30.229 --> 00:03:33.490 uncontested power in Kabul. But, and this is 00:03:33.490 --> 00:03:35.889 the massive but, their control of the country 00:03:35.889 --> 00:03:38.530 came with a critical alliance. They were harboring 00:03:38.530 --> 00:03:41.129 al -Qaeda. Right. Afghanistan provided a safe 00:03:41.129 --> 00:03:44.210 haven for Osama bin Laden and his network. Al 00:03:44.210 --> 00:03:47.009 -Qaeda used that rugged remote terrain to train 00:03:47.009 --> 00:03:49.889 fighters, import weapons, and basically plot 00:03:49.889 --> 00:03:52.250 global terrorist actions. And the numbers are 00:03:52.250 --> 00:03:54.789 wild. The historical estimates suggest anywhere 00:03:54.789 --> 00:03:57.569 between 10 ,000 and 20 ,000 men passed through 00:03:57.569 --> 00:03:59.750 these training facilities before September 11th. 00:03:59.810 --> 00:04:02.099 It was a massive operation. Which, of course, 00:04:02.139 --> 00:04:04.379 brings us to the inciting incident for everything 00:04:04.379 --> 00:04:07.659 that follows. September 11th, 2001. Al Qaeda 00:04:07.659 --> 00:04:09.900 orchestrates the attacks in New York and Washington. 00:04:10.159 --> 00:04:12.219 And the United States' immediate desire to hold 00:04:12.219 --> 00:04:15.199 bin Laden accountable becomes the absolute case's 00:04:15.199 --> 00:04:18.300 belly. The undeniable cause for war. Right. Following 00:04:18.300 --> 00:04:21.399 the attacks, U .S. President George W. Bush issues 00:04:21.399 --> 00:04:23.699 a clear ultimatum to the Taliban leadership. 00:04:23.860 --> 00:04:27.420 Hand him over. Basically, yes. Immediately extradite 00:04:27.420 --> 00:04:31.079 Osama bin Laden and permanently close down all 00:04:31.079 --> 00:04:33.279 al -Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan. And 00:04:33.279 --> 00:04:35.560 the Taliban's response is one of those historical 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:37.639 moments that kind of gets lost in the broader 00:04:37.639 --> 00:04:40.079 narrative today. It really does. Because they 00:04:40.079 --> 00:04:43.160 don't just issue a flat, defiant no. Right. They 00:04:43.160 --> 00:04:45.579 refuse the immediate extradition, sure, but they 00:04:45.579 --> 00:04:47.920 actually demand evidence of bin Laden's guilt. 00:04:48.139 --> 00:04:50.459 And they offer a counterproposal. Which is crazy 00:04:50.459 --> 00:04:52.980 to think about now. What was the proposal? They 00:04:52.980 --> 00:04:55.019 offer to hand him over to a neutral third country 00:04:55.019 --> 00:04:57.860 to be tried under Islamic law. Wow. But that 00:04:57.860 --> 00:05:00.240 was provided the US stops its bombing campaign 00:05:00.240 --> 00:05:02.420 and actually provides that evidence. And the 00:05:02.420 --> 00:05:04.620 US administration just dismisses these offers 00:05:04.620 --> 00:05:07.480 entirely. Completely. An administration official 00:05:07.480 --> 00:05:09.860 famously stated that the demands were not subject 00:05:09.860 --> 00:05:12.829 to negotiation. So the diplomatic door was slammed 00:05:12.829 --> 00:05:16.149 shut almost immediately. Bang, closed. But why 00:05:16.149 --> 00:05:18.589 the total dismissal? I mean, looking back with 00:05:18.589 --> 00:05:21.629 20 years of hindsight, an offer to hand him over 00:05:21.629 --> 00:05:25.129 to a third country seems like a potential diplomatic 00:05:25.129 --> 00:05:27.569 off -ramp. It does seem that way now. So why 00:05:27.569 --> 00:05:29.930 didn't the US even entertain the idea of calling 00:05:29.930 --> 00:05:32.689 their bluff? Because of how the US administration 00:05:32.689 --> 00:05:35.189 fundamentally viewed the enemy at that exact 00:05:35.189 --> 00:05:38.689 moment. OK, untack that. Well, in the immediate 00:05:38.879 --> 00:05:42.319 deeply traumatic aftermath of 9 -11, the U .S. 00:05:42.740 --> 00:05:44.819 operated under the belief that the Taliban and 00:05:44.819 --> 00:05:47.079 al -Qaeda were functionally inseparable. Like 00:05:47.079 --> 00:05:49.439 they were the exact same thing. Exactly. They 00:05:49.439 --> 00:05:53.019 view them as a single monolithic entity of global 00:05:53.019 --> 00:05:55.980 terrorism. But the historical record shows they 00:05:55.980 --> 00:05:58.439 actually had very different goals. Right. And 00:05:58.439 --> 00:06:00.740 distinct leadership structure. Yeah. Al Qaeda 00:06:00.740 --> 00:06:03.620 had these sweeping global jihadist ambitions. 00:06:03.680 --> 00:06:05.879 They wanted to attack the West. Where's the Taliban? 00:06:06.079 --> 00:06:08.899 The Taliban, conversely, were intensely insular. 00:06:09.100 --> 00:06:11.199 Their focus was entirely on national control 00:06:11.199 --> 00:06:13.860 of Afghanistan and implementing their specific 00:06:13.860 --> 00:06:16.439 local governance. So in the eyes of Washington, 00:06:16.699 --> 00:06:18.800 negotiating with the Taliban was the moral equivalent 00:06:18.800 --> 00:06:21.480 of negotiating with the architects of 9 -11 themselves. 00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:23.860 It was just politically impossible. Which means 00:06:23.860 --> 00:06:27.060 the covert military action begins. And it begins 00:06:27.060 --> 00:06:30.680 fast. while Operation Enduring Freedom officially 00:06:30.680 --> 00:06:33.439 kicks off with massive airstrikes on October 00:06:33.439 --> 00:06:35.839 7, 2001. The groundwork was already being laid 00:06:35.839 --> 00:06:38.480 on the ground, right? Oh, yeah. Just 15 days 00:06:38.480 --> 00:06:42.339 after 9 -11, the CIA covertly inserted members 00:06:42.339 --> 00:06:45.040 of their Special Activities Division into Afghanistan. 00:06:45.160 --> 00:06:47.459 To link up with the Northern Alliance. Exactly. 00:06:47.699 --> 00:06:49.639 And this is where the mechanics of the early 00:06:49.639 --> 00:06:52.399 war are just wild to visualize. It sounds like 00:06:52.399 --> 00:06:54.579 a movie. It really does. You have these tiny 00:06:54.579 --> 00:06:58.160 12 -man U .S. Special Forces teams arriving in 00:06:58.160 --> 00:07:00.800 a completely hostile country. Working with the 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:03.199 CIA. Right. And they are linking up with Northern 00:07:03.199 --> 00:07:04.860 Alliance fighters who have been fighting the 00:07:04.860 --> 00:07:07.540 Civil War for years. And what did they do? We 00:07:07.540 --> 00:07:10.439 are talking about highly trained U .S. operators 00:07:10.439 --> 00:07:12.879 literally riding on horseback through the freezing 00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:15.699 mountains of Afghanistan. While using GPS receivers 00:07:15.699 --> 00:07:18.680 and lasers to paint Taliban targets for B -52 00:07:18.680 --> 00:07:21.779 bombers flying miles above them. It is an overwhelmingly 00:07:21.779 --> 00:07:24.459 successful synthesis of 19th century cavalry 00:07:24.459 --> 00:07:27.759 tactics and 21st century aerospace technology. 00:07:28.220 --> 00:07:30.439 And with that devastating U .S. air support, 00:07:31.079 --> 00:07:33.199 the Northern Alliance was able to break out of 00:07:33.199 --> 00:07:35.740 their enclave. They captured several key cities 00:07:35.740 --> 00:07:38.139 from the Taliban in a matter of weeks. Because 00:07:38.139 --> 00:07:40.779 the Taliban simply could not comprehend or match 00:07:40.779 --> 00:07:44.120 the air power, entire defensive lines evaporated. 00:07:44.139 --> 00:07:46.839 They just retreated from major population centers 00:07:46.839 --> 00:07:49.839 and by November of 2001 they had lost control 00:07:49.839 --> 00:07:52.769 of most of the country. speed of it is breathtaking. 00:07:52.850 --> 00:07:55.370 It gave everyone whiplash. I mean, fewer than 00:07:55.370 --> 00:07:57.589 a dozen U .S. soldiers died in those initial 00:07:57.589 --> 00:08:00.230 months. While thousands of Taliban fighters were 00:08:00.230 --> 00:08:02.230 killed or taken prisoner. Which leads directly 00:08:02.230 --> 00:08:05.310 to the Bonn Conference in December 2001. Right. 00:08:05.490 --> 00:08:08.230 The Taliban are ousted from Kabul, so the international 00:08:08.230 --> 00:08:10.290 community rushes to figure out who is going to 00:08:10.290 --> 00:08:12.709 run the country. So the United Nations convenes 00:08:12.709 --> 00:08:15.290 this conference in Bonn, Germany. Bringing together 00:08:15.290 --> 00:08:18.350 various Afghan anti -Taliban factions. And they 00:08:18.350 --> 00:08:21.149 select Hamid Karzai to head the Afghan interim 00:08:21.149 --> 00:08:23.810 administration. And Karzai was chosen largely 00:08:23.810 --> 00:08:26.329 because he was a prominent Pashtun leader. Which 00:08:26.329 --> 00:08:28.790 is the majority ethnic group in Afghanistan. 00:08:29.329 --> 00:08:31.189 Exactly. The same group the Taliban drew their 00:08:31.189 --> 00:08:34.269 strength from. So making him the leader was theoretically 00:08:34.269 --> 00:08:36.710 acceptable to the South. But he also had the 00:08:36.710 --> 00:08:38.909 backing of the Northern Alliance and the West. 00:08:39.009 --> 00:08:42.149 Yeah. And the UN also authorizes the creation 00:08:42.149 --> 00:08:44.210 of the International Security Assistance Force, 00:08:44.669 --> 00:08:47.529 or ISAF. Which was initially just a small coalition 00:08:47.529 --> 00:08:50.809 force meant to help maintain security in Kabul 00:08:50.809 --> 00:08:53.850 itself. Right. Let me pause here though, because 00:08:53.850 --> 00:08:57.529 this narrative of total victory in 2001 feels 00:08:57.529 --> 00:09:00.590 incredibly dangerous. Oh, absolutely. Yes, they 00:09:00.590 --> 00:09:03.330 ousted the Taliban in a few weeks. But thinking 00:09:03.330 --> 00:09:05.549 that winning those initial battles meant winning 00:09:05.549 --> 00:09:08.730 the war is absurd. It was a massive miscalculation. 00:09:08.870 --> 00:09:11.669 It's like tearing down an old dangerous building 00:09:11.669 --> 00:09:14.230 over a long weekend, dusting your hands off, 00:09:14.289 --> 00:09:16.590 but having absolutely no architectural blueprint 00:09:16.590 --> 00:09:19.190 for what to build in the empty lot. That is a 00:09:19.190 --> 00:09:21.929 great analogy. And worse, you're totally ignoring 00:09:21.929 --> 00:09:24.509 the fact the previous tenants didn't die. They 00:09:24.509 --> 00:09:26.730 just moved into the dark woods right next door. 00:09:26.769 --> 00:09:28.669 That's a highly structural way to look at it. 00:09:28.809 --> 00:09:31.100 Yeah. entirely accurate based on the sources. 00:09:31.460 --> 00:09:34.039 The failure to capture Osama bin Laden at Tora 00:09:34.039 --> 00:09:37.480 Bora during this early stage was a massive tactical 00:09:37.480 --> 00:09:41.759 miss. But the grand strategic error was the bond 00:09:41.759 --> 00:09:45.419 conference itself. How so? Well, by completely 00:09:45.419 --> 00:09:48.000 excluding the Taliban from any role in the new 00:09:48.000 --> 00:09:50.399 government formation, essentially treating them 00:09:50.399 --> 00:09:54.379 as a vanquished, irrelevant entity. the coalition 00:09:54.379 --> 00:09:57.080 guaranteed a future conflict. Because they were 00:09:57.080 --> 00:09:59.440 defeated tactically in conventional battles, 00:09:59.519 --> 00:10:02.340 but they were not eliminated as a political or 00:10:02.340 --> 00:10:04.840 social force. Exactly. So they just melted away. 00:10:05.120 --> 00:10:07.059 Well, melted away makes it sound like magic. 00:10:07.240 --> 00:10:09.340 It was geography and demographics. OK, what do 00:10:09.340 --> 00:10:11.960 you mean? The surviving Taliban leadership, including 00:10:11.960 --> 00:10:15.259 their founder, Mullah Omar, didn't vanish. They 00:10:15.259 --> 00:10:18.759 simply walked across the incredibly porous, largely 00:10:18.759 --> 00:10:21.840 unmapped Duran line. The border into neighboring 00:10:21.840 --> 00:10:24.460 Pakistan? Yes. They retreated into the tribal 00:10:24.460 --> 00:10:27.279 areas, sat down, and waited. Because they knew 00:10:27.279 --> 00:10:29.679 the terrain, they had deep tribal connections 00:10:29.679 --> 00:10:32.059 across the border, and they had time. All the 00:10:32.059 --> 00:10:34.539 time in the world. But because of that rapid, 00:10:34.899 --> 00:10:37.820 relatively low -casualty military success, there 00:10:37.820 --> 00:10:41.000 was this intoxicating false sense of finality 00:10:41.000 --> 00:10:43.299 in Washington and London. They really thought 00:10:43.299 --> 00:10:45.799 the war was essentially over, just a mop -up 00:10:45.799 --> 00:10:48.039 operation remaining. And that false sense of 00:10:48.039 --> 00:10:51.440 finality leads us directly into a massive geopolitical 00:10:51.440 --> 00:10:54.059 distraction. Which brings us to the years 2002 00:10:54.059 --> 00:10:58.750 to 2005. The gaze shifts. Right. Following the 00:10:58.750 --> 00:11:01.710 initial success, the U .S. found itself occupying 00:11:01.710 --> 00:11:04.529 Afghanistan without a universally agreed upon 00:11:04.529 --> 00:11:07.509 long -term goal. Because the original singular 00:11:07.509 --> 00:11:11.029 objective was counterterrorism, hunting down 00:11:11.029 --> 00:11:13.750 al -Qaeda and punishing the Taliban for harboring 00:11:13.750 --> 00:11:16.590 them. But nation -building actually constructing 00:11:16.590 --> 00:11:19.450 a functioning democratic state that was actively 00:11:19.450 --> 00:11:21.470 opposed by the Bush administration initially? 00:11:21.730 --> 00:11:23.570 They wanted what they called a light footprint. 00:11:23.769 --> 00:11:25.830 Right. But as the coalition realized you can't 00:11:25.830 --> 00:11:28.669 just leave a vacuum, the rationale slowly morphed. 00:11:28.750 --> 00:11:31.789 And then in 2003, the United States makes a monumental 00:11:31.789 --> 00:11:34.250 pivot. They invade Iraq. The mechanical impact 00:11:34.250 --> 00:11:36.669 of the Iraq invasion on Afghanistan cannot be 00:11:36.669 --> 00:11:38.789 overstated. It wasn't just a distraction of news 00:11:38.789 --> 00:11:41.590 headlines, right? No, not at all. It was a massive 00:11:41.590 --> 00:11:44.669 physical diversion of resources. Special operations 00:11:44.669 --> 00:11:47.629 units, intelligence assets, surveillance drones, 00:11:48.210 --> 00:11:50.490 language experts. And billions of dollars in 00:11:50.490 --> 00:11:53.129 funding. Right. All abruptly redirected from 00:11:53.129 --> 00:11:56.129 Kabul to Baghdad. It's the concept of a simmering 00:11:56.129 --> 00:11:58.309 pot left unattended on the back burner while 00:11:58.309 --> 00:12:00.509 you turn around to deal with a massive grease 00:12:00.509 --> 00:12:02.809 fire on the stove. Yes. You think the pot on 00:12:02.809 --> 00:12:04.610 the back burner is fine because it's not boiling 00:12:04.610 --> 00:12:07.389 over right this second, but you left the heat 00:12:07.389 --> 00:12:10.549 on. That's exactly what happened. And while the 00:12:10.549 --> 00:12:12.730 U .S. was looking toward Iraq, they were relying 00:12:12.730 --> 00:12:16.629 on a newly formed, deeply flawed Afghan army. 00:12:16.879 --> 00:12:19.279 Because of that light footprint approach. Yeah, 00:12:19.419 --> 00:12:21.700 the U .S. deferred heavily to the Northern Alliance 00:12:21.700 --> 00:12:24.120 and local warlords to maintain security in the 00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:25.960 provinces. Rather than investing the necessary 00:12:25.960 --> 00:12:28.639 time and money to build a professional, independent, 00:12:28.980 --> 00:12:31.299 uncorrupt military force from the ground up. 00:12:31.679 --> 00:12:34.700 Exactly. And the coalition forces that were left 00:12:34.700 --> 00:12:36.940 in Afghanistan made some devastating tactical 00:12:36.940 --> 00:12:39.480 choices during this window. Right. The pressure 00:12:39.480 --> 00:12:42.179 to hunt down high value terrorist targets led 00:12:42.179 --> 00:12:45.059 to incredibly aggressive operations. Think about 00:12:45.059 --> 00:12:47.139 the mechanics of how intelligence was gathered 00:12:47.139 --> 00:12:50.759 then. Coalition troops would go on highly aggressive, 00:12:51.220 --> 00:12:54.000 terrifying night raids based on tips from local 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:56.879 informants. But those informants often weren't 00:12:56.879 --> 00:12:59.679 providing intelligence on terrorists. No. They 00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:01.879 were weaponizing the American military to settle 00:13:01.879 --> 00:13:05.240 local scores. Oh, wow. Yeah. A local power broker 00:13:05.240 --> 00:13:07.440 could tell the Americans that his business rival 00:13:07.440 --> 00:13:11.220 was a secret Taliban commander. So the Americans 00:13:11.220 --> 00:13:14.379 would raid the rival's compound? Perhaps kill 00:13:14.379 --> 00:13:16.600 him. And the informant gets rid of his enemy 00:13:16.600 --> 00:13:18.779 while actually getting paid by the CIA? That 00:13:18.779 --> 00:13:21.259 is deeply corrosive. I mean, you are actively 00:13:21.259 --> 00:13:23.700 turning the local population against you. And 00:13:23.700 --> 00:13:26.659 the civilian toll of these operations was horrific. 00:13:27.159 --> 00:13:29.740 There are documented incidents of massive civilian 00:13:29.740 --> 00:13:31.700 casualties. Like the devastating event with the 00:13:31.700 --> 00:13:34.320 wedding party? Yes. A local wedding party where 00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:37.100 men traditionally fire guns into the air in celebration 00:13:37.100 --> 00:13:40.279 was misinterpreted by coalition aircraft as a 00:13:40.279 --> 00:13:42.419 hostile Taliban gathering. And they bombed it. 00:13:42.580 --> 00:13:46.039 They bombed it. You cannot drop a bomb on a wedding 00:13:46.039 --> 00:13:48.840 and then visit the surviving elders the next 00:13:48.840 --> 00:13:51.659 day and expect them to trust your democratic 00:13:51.659 --> 00:13:54.799 institution building. Or your promises of security. 00:13:55.460 --> 00:13:58.159 It fundamentally destroys the psychological foundation 00:13:58.159 --> 00:14:01.759 of counterinsurgency. It generated immense popular 00:14:01.759 --> 00:14:04.580 resentment. And further complicating this, the 00:14:04.580 --> 00:14:07.139 promises made by the newly formed Afghan government 00:14:07.139 --> 00:14:09.840 were falling apart. Yes, the historical record 00:14:09.840 --> 00:14:12.320 shows that many mid -level Taliban commanders 00:14:12.320 --> 00:14:14.820 had actually tried to give up their arms early 00:14:14.820 --> 00:14:16.600 on. Right. They wanted to go back to their villages 00:14:16.600 --> 00:14:19.059 and live peacefully. Especially after being promised 00:14:19.059 --> 00:14:21.940 amnesty by President Karzai. But that amnesty 00:14:21.940 --> 00:14:24.679 wasn't respected on the ground. Not at all. Those 00:14:24.679 --> 00:14:27.519 former fighters found themselves constantly harassed, 00:14:27.679 --> 00:14:30.759 detained, or extorted by local Afghan security 00:14:30.759 --> 00:14:33.620 forces. Or they were targeted by U .S. special 00:14:33.620 --> 00:14:35.940 operations forces, who just weren't clued into 00:14:35.940 --> 00:14:39.080 the political amnesty deals. Wait, so if the 00:14:39.080 --> 00:14:41.179 Taliban were largely defeated, scattered into 00:14:41.179 --> 00:14:43.419 Pakistan, some of their fighters were literally 00:14:43.419 --> 00:14:46.019 trying to surrender and go back to farming. How 00:14:46.019 --> 00:14:48.919 on earth did they coordinate a massive country 00:14:48.919 --> 00:14:51.019 -wide insurgency just three years later? Well, 00:14:51.019 --> 00:14:53.320 because the coalition essentially built the insurgency 00:14:53.320 --> 00:14:57.240 for them. Wow. By 2004, those harassed former 00:14:57.240 --> 00:15:00.600 fighters realized surrender just wasn't a safe 00:15:00.600 --> 00:15:03.539 option. So they fled across the border to Pakistan, 00:15:04.019 --> 00:15:06.100 rejoining the hardline leadership hiding there. 00:15:06.240 --> 00:15:09.600 So the coalition's missteps, the civilian casualties, 00:15:10.299 --> 00:15:13.220 the night raids, empowering warlords, broken 00:15:13.220 --> 00:15:15.759 amnesty promises that all served as the ultimate 00:15:15.759 --> 00:15:18.120 recruitment tool. The undeniable recruitment 00:15:18.120 --> 00:15:20.539 tool. The movement reorganized in the tribal 00:15:20.539 --> 00:15:24.080 areas of Pakistan. And in late 2004, the hidden 00:15:24.080 --> 00:15:26.799 Taliban leader Mullah Omar officially announced 00:15:26.799 --> 00:15:29.379 a formal insurgency against American and Afghan 00:15:29.379 --> 00:15:32.600 government forces. To, as he put it, regain the 00:15:32.600 --> 00:15:34.539 sovereignty of our country. And they didn't just 00:15:34.539 --> 00:15:36.639 come back with the same old tactics, did they? 00:15:36.860 --> 00:15:38.960 No, they adapted. They realized they couldn't 00:15:38.960 --> 00:15:41.500 fight the Americans in open battles. And there's 00:15:41.500 --> 00:15:44.019 a specific commander the data points to named 00:15:44.019 --> 00:15:46.559 Dadula. Oh, OK. Tell me about him. Mullah Dadula 00:15:46.559 --> 00:15:48.799 was appointed as a senior military commander 00:15:48.799 --> 00:15:52.000 for the Taliban. And he introduced a terrifying 00:15:52.000 --> 00:15:55.289 new dynamic to the battlefield. suicide bombings. 00:15:55.549 --> 00:15:58.009 Which is wild because historically suicide attacks 00:15:58.009 --> 00:16:01.210 were not a Taliban tactic. Exactly. It wasn't 00:16:01.210 --> 00:16:03.570 part of Afghan martial culture at all. It was 00:16:03.570 --> 00:16:06.370 an imported al -Qaeda tactic. So how did Dadula 00:16:06.370 --> 00:16:09.610 suddenly build an army of suicide bombers? He 00:16:09.610 --> 00:16:12.529 utilized a vast network of radical madrassas 00:16:12.529 --> 00:16:16.250 religious schools located in Pakistan that catered 00:16:16.250 --> 00:16:20.429 to impoverished Afghan refugees. These schools 00:16:20.429 --> 00:16:24.460 provided a captive audience of young deeply indoctrinated, 00:16:24.740 --> 00:16:27.519 destitute men who are entirely disconnected from 00:16:27.519 --> 00:16:30.200 traditional Afghan village structures. So Dadila 00:16:30.200 --> 00:16:32.820 built a pipeline. He took these radicalized students, 00:16:33.379 --> 00:16:35.179 convinced them of the glory of martyrdom against 00:16:35.179 --> 00:16:37.480 the foreign occupiers and unleashed them into 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:40.500 Afghan cities. So by focusing intensely on aggressive, 00:16:40.620 --> 00:16:43.399 kinetic counter -terrorism operations, the coalition 00:16:43.399 --> 00:16:45.720 accidentally alienated the rural population. 00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:47.919 Pushed the moderate fighters back into the arms 00:16:47.919 --> 00:16:50.240 of the extremists. And fueled an insurgency that 00:16:50.240 --> 00:16:52.139 fundamentally changed the rules of engagement. 00:16:52.409 --> 00:16:54.730 The pot on the back burner is now officially 00:16:54.730 --> 00:16:57.350 boiling over. Which brings us to the massive 00:16:57.350 --> 00:17:01.789 escalation, the years 2006 to 2009. The battle 00:17:01.789 --> 00:17:04.269 for hearts and minds fails against the reality 00:17:04.269 --> 00:17:08.269 of open combat. Right. By 2006, insurgent attacks 00:17:08.269 --> 00:17:11.730 had grown fourfold compared to 2002. The Taliban 00:17:11.730 --> 00:17:15.250 began launching brutal coordinated summer offensives. 00:17:15.470 --> 00:17:17.650 Operations with names like Mountain Thrust and 00:17:17.650 --> 00:17:21.269 Medusa. You saw heavy conventional fighting in 00:17:21.269 --> 00:17:23.450 southern provinces like Helmand and Kandahar. 00:17:23.650 --> 00:17:25.930 But the coalition forces were achieving tactical 00:17:25.930 --> 00:17:28.410 victories in these operations. They were. They 00:17:28.410 --> 00:17:30.970 had superior firepower. They could roll into 00:17:30.970 --> 00:17:33.609 a valley, clear it of Taliban fighters and declare 00:17:33.609 --> 00:17:36.289 the area secure. But the mechanics of their strategy 00:17:36.289 --> 00:17:39.000 were flawed. because they had the troops to clear 00:17:39.000 --> 00:17:41.519 an area, but nowhere near the numbers required 00:17:41.519 --> 00:17:44.079 to hold it indefinitely. Ah, so the moment the 00:17:44.079 --> 00:17:46.079 coalition forces moved on to the next valley. 00:17:46.339 --> 00:17:48.259 The Taliban simply filtered right back in. It 00:17:48.259 --> 00:17:50.799 was a deadly, exhausting game of whack -a -mole. 00:17:51.059 --> 00:17:53.140 And the friction between the foreign forces and 00:17:53.140 --> 00:17:55.339 the civilian population reaches a true boiling 00:17:55.339 --> 00:17:57.500 point during this time. We really have to look 00:17:57.500 --> 00:18:01.220 at the 2006 Kabul riot here. Because this event 00:18:01.220 --> 00:18:04.440 is a perfect, terrifying microcosm of what was 00:18:04.440 --> 00:18:06.680 going wrong mechanically with the occupation. 00:18:06.940 --> 00:18:11.319 Walk us through it. So, May 29, 2006. A U .S. 00:18:11.680 --> 00:18:15.000 military logistics truck is driving in a convoy 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:17.480 through Kabul. It suffers a mechanical failure, 00:18:17.579 --> 00:18:20.779 loses control, and plows into a line of civilian 00:18:20.779 --> 00:18:23.259 vehicles. It kills one person and injures six. 00:18:23.480 --> 00:18:26.920 A tragic but entirely mundane traffic accident. 00:18:27.119 --> 00:18:29.299 Right. It wasn't a coordinated Taliban ambush. 00:18:29.359 --> 00:18:31.599 It was just a vehicle collision. But look at 00:18:31.599 --> 00:18:34.000 what happens next. The surrounding crowd doesn't 00:18:34.000 --> 00:18:37.059 wait for ambulances. They become instantly violently 00:18:37.059 --> 00:18:39.920 furious. A riot erupts that engulfs the city 00:18:39.920 --> 00:18:42.019 and lasts all day. The crowd starts throwing 00:18:42.019 --> 00:18:44.599 stones, setting fires, chanting anti -American 00:18:44.599 --> 00:18:47.160 slogans. U .S. troops actually have to fire their 00:18:47.160 --> 00:18:49.400 weapons to fend themselves as they flee the mob. 00:18:49.460 --> 00:18:51.700 And by the end of the day, 20 people are dead 00:18:51.700 --> 00:18:54.490 and 160 are in... What does that tell you about 00:18:54.490 --> 00:18:56.670 the baseline psychology of the Afghan public 00:18:56.670 --> 00:18:59.690 at that moment? A traffic accident spiked a citywide 00:18:59.690 --> 00:19:02.789 deadly riot. It reveals the massive, simmering 00:19:02.789 --> 00:19:05.930 groundswell of resentment. It proved that the 00:19:05.930 --> 00:19:08.109 Hearts and Minds campaign was a catastrophic 00:19:08.109 --> 00:19:11.410 failure in urban centers. The population didn't 00:19:11.410 --> 00:19:13.750 view the coalition as protectors. They viewed 00:19:13.750 --> 00:19:16.829 them as an arrogant, reckless, occupying force. 00:19:17.109 --> 00:19:20.390 Exactly. And militarily, the Taliban were growing 00:19:20.390 --> 00:19:24.210 incredibly bold. Let's talk about the 2008 Kandahar 00:19:24.210 --> 00:19:26.990 jailbreak. Oh, man. This wasn't a skirmish. This 00:19:26.990 --> 00:19:29.309 was a Hollywood level heist. It was a highly 00:19:29.309 --> 00:19:32.690 sophisticated coordinated assault. The Taliban 00:19:32.690 --> 00:19:35.730 used a massive tanker truck packed with explosives 00:19:35.730 --> 00:19:38.650 to blow open the main gates of the Sarposa prison 00:19:38.650 --> 00:19:41.490 in Kandahar. And following the explosion, a wave 00:19:41.490 --> 00:19:43.750 of fighters armed with rockets and machine guns 00:19:43.750 --> 00:19:46.480 stormed the facility. They systematically broke 00:19:46.480 --> 00:19:49.079 the locks on the cells and liberated roughly 00:19:49.079 --> 00:19:51.940 1200 prisoners. And out of those 1200, roughly 00:19:51.940 --> 00:19:55.299 400 were confirmed Taliban fighters. 400 hardened 00:19:55.299 --> 00:19:57.819 insurgents instantly put back on the battlefield. 00:19:57.859 --> 00:20:00.559 Wow. It was a staggering operational embarrassment 00:20:00.559 --> 00:20:03.539 for NATO and the Afghan security forces. It showed 00:20:03.539 --> 00:20:05.059 that the government couldn't even secure its 00:20:05.059 --> 00:20:07.680 most important infrastructure. But strategically, 00:20:08.359 --> 00:20:10.920 the Taliban makes an incredibly vital pivot around 00:20:10.920 --> 00:20:14.119 this time, too. Right. Looking at the intelligence 00:20:14.119 --> 00:20:17.359 assessments from late 2008, the Taliban appears 00:20:17.359 --> 00:20:19.759 to sever their remaining operational ties with 00:20:19.759 --> 00:20:22.579 al -Qaeda. The U .S. military estimates suggested 00:20:22.579 --> 00:20:24.660 there were perhaps fewer than a hundred members 00:20:24.660 --> 00:20:27.259 of al Qaeda left in Afghanistan at that point. 00:20:27.359 --> 00:20:29.140 And if we look closely at the political mechanics, 00:20:29.640 --> 00:20:32.220 this was a highly calculated rebranding effort 00:20:32.220 --> 00:20:34.859 by the Taliban leadership. They realized that 00:20:34.859 --> 00:20:37.500 their association with al Qaeda and global jihad 00:20:37.500 --> 00:20:40.380 was drawing the full wrath of the American military. 00:20:40.500 --> 00:20:42.319 They didn't want to be seen by the international 00:20:42.319 --> 00:20:45.380 community as terrorists plotting attacks in London 00:20:45.380 --> 00:20:47.660 or New York. They wanted to legitimize themselves. 00:20:47.740 --> 00:20:51.190 So they pivoted their propaganda. to frame themselves 00:20:51.190 --> 00:20:53.750 strictly as a nationalist resistance movement, 00:20:54.250 --> 00:20:57.170 fighting a righteous war to expel a foreign occupation 00:20:57.170 --> 00:20:59.809 and reclaim their own homeland. Rebranding the 00:20:59.809 --> 00:21:02.369 insurgency for a domestic audience. Yes. And 00:21:02.369 --> 00:21:04.349 it was working so well that the U .S. felt it 00:21:04.349 --> 00:21:06.670 had to drastically change its entire approach. 00:21:07.109 --> 00:21:10.269 In 2009, the new Obama administration comes into 00:21:10.269 --> 00:21:14.700 office reviews the deteriorating situation and 00:21:14.700 --> 00:21:17.200 approves a massive surge of troops. They sent 00:21:17.200 --> 00:21:19.740 tens of thousands of additional American soldiers 00:21:19.740 --> 00:21:22.960 to Afghanistan alongside a massive increase in 00:21:22.960 --> 00:21:25.539 controversial drone strikes in Pakistan. Because 00:21:25.539 --> 00:21:28.480 they're attempting to finally implement a true 00:21:28.480 --> 00:21:31.579 counterinsurgency strategy. Right. coin. The 00:21:31.579 --> 00:21:33.839 goal is to flood the South with truth to finally 00:21:33.839 --> 00:21:36.299 hold the ground after clearing it, providing 00:21:36.299 --> 00:21:38.099 enough security for the Afghan government to 00:21:38.099 --> 00:21:40.519 build local infrastructure and win back the population. 00:21:40.920 --> 00:21:43.339 But the political reality in Kabul is completely 00:21:43.339 --> 00:21:45.359 contradicting the military reality on the ground. 00:21:45.700 --> 00:21:48.380 Oh, absolutely. Hamid Karzai is re -elected in 00:21:48.380 --> 00:21:51.299 2009 in an election that is heavily marred by 00:21:51.299 --> 00:21:53.920 international claims of massive fraud. And interestingly, 00:21:54.099 --> 00:21:56.660 in a televised speech shortly after his contested 00:21:56.660 --> 00:22:00.470 victory, Karzai publicly calls on Taliban brothers 00:22:00.470 --> 00:22:03.309 to come home and embrace their land. It's a striking 00:22:03.309 --> 00:22:05.490 contradiction. You have the U .S. surging tens 00:22:05.490 --> 00:22:07.869 of thousands of young soldiers into brutal combat 00:22:07.869 --> 00:22:10.269 in Helmand province. While the president of the 00:22:10.269 --> 00:22:12.750 very country they are defending is publicly referring 00:22:12.750 --> 00:22:16.630 to the enemy as brothers and signaling a desire 00:22:16.630 --> 00:22:18.950 for a political settlement. The disconnect is 00:22:18.950 --> 00:22:21.230 just jarring. And it ushers us into the peak 00:22:21.230 --> 00:22:25.349 years of the war 2010 to 2013. We hit the absolute 00:22:25.349 --> 00:22:28.130 maximum military footprint followed immediately 00:22:28.130 --> 00:22:31.690 by a drastic And a catastrophic cascade of fractured 00:22:31.690 --> 00:22:34.009 trust. So the troop surge hits its zenith in 00:22:34.009 --> 00:22:37.650 2011. There are roughly 140 ,000 foreign troops. 00:22:37.910 --> 00:22:40.309 Primarily American and British, operating under 00:22:40.309 --> 00:22:43.410 the ISAF command across Afghanistan. It is a 00:22:43.410 --> 00:22:45.809 staggering logistical enterprise. And right in 00:22:45.809 --> 00:22:48.630 the middle of this massive, grinding military 00:22:48.630 --> 00:22:51.690 undertaking, an event happens outside of Afghanistan 00:22:51.690 --> 00:22:54.009 that completely rips the psychological foundation 00:22:54.009 --> 00:22:57.569 out from under the entire war. May 2, 2011. Operation 00:22:57.569 --> 00:23:00.509 Neptune Spear. U .S. Navy SEALs conduct a covert 00:23:00.509 --> 00:23:03.589 nighttime raid in Ahmedabad, Pakistan. They locate 00:23:03.589 --> 00:23:06.009 and kill Osama bin Laden. The man who orchestrated 00:23:06.009 --> 00:23:08.910 9 -11 is dead. And suddenly, the average American 00:23:08.910 --> 00:23:11.170 citizen, who has been vaguely paying attention 00:23:11.170 --> 00:23:13.730 to a decade -long war, looks at the news and 00:23:13.730 --> 00:23:16.430 asks a very logical question. Wait, didn't we 00:23:16.430 --> 00:23:18.309 invade Afghanistan specifically to get the guy 00:23:18.309 --> 00:23:21.730 who did 9 -11? Right. If he's dead and he wasn't 00:23:21.730 --> 00:23:24.549 even in Afghanistan, why do we currently have 00:23:24.549 --> 00:23:27.589 140 ,000 troops fighting and dying in random 00:23:27.589 --> 00:23:30.390 farming villages in Helmand Province? It's the 00:23:30.390 --> 00:23:32.950 moment the narrative collapses. As we discussed, 00:23:33.230 --> 00:23:35.250 the original causes, Billy, was counterterrorism. 00:23:35.450 --> 00:23:38.029 But over 10 years, the mission had morphed into 00:23:38.029 --> 00:23:41.450 an impossibly broad nation building and counterinsurgency 00:23:41.450 --> 00:23:44.970 effort. With Bin Laden dead, the Obama administration 00:23:44.970 --> 00:23:48.269 loses the core psychological justification for 00:23:48.269 --> 00:23:50.809 keeping such a massive force engaged. So almost 00:23:50.809 --> 00:23:52.950 immediately, Washington announces a withdrawal 00:23:52.950 --> 00:23:55.470 plan, starting with pulling out 10 ,000 troops 00:23:55.470 --> 00:23:58.170 by the end of the year. And as the U .S. clearly 00:23:58.170 --> 00:24:00.730 starts looking for the exit doors, the relationship 00:24:00.730 --> 00:24:03.069 between the coalition forces and the Afghan people 00:24:03.069 --> 00:24:05.809 goes through its absolute darkest, most toxic 00:24:05.809 --> 00:24:09.430 period. The year 2012 is just a relentless, grueling 00:24:09.430 --> 00:24:12.069 string of public relations disasters and horrific 00:24:12.069 --> 00:24:15.089 criminal incidents. The historical record catalogs 00:24:15.089 --> 00:24:17.309 a series of events that completely obliterated 00:24:17.309 --> 00:24:19.670 any remaining moral authority the coalition claimed 00:24:19.670 --> 00:24:22.630 to hold. Like what? Well, in January, a video 00:24:22.630 --> 00:24:25.430 surfaced showing U .S. Marines laughing and urinating 00:24:25.430 --> 00:24:28.190 on the bloodied corpses of dead Taliban fighters. 00:24:28.210 --> 00:24:31.930 Oh, my God. Then in February, massive deadly 00:24:31.930 --> 00:24:34.390 protests erupted across the country. It was revealed 00:24:34.390 --> 00:24:37.089 that U .S. military personnel at Bagram Air Base 00:24:37.089 --> 00:24:39.829 had improperly disposed of Islamic religious 00:24:39.829 --> 00:24:43.029 materials, including burning copies of the Quran 00:24:43.029 --> 00:24:47.480 in a burn pit. Exactly. Then in March, the horrific 00:24:47.480 --> 00:24:51.099 Panjwai massacre occurs. A U .S. Army Staff Sergeant 00:24:51.099 --> 00:24:53.539 leaves his base in the middle of the night, walks 00:24:53.539 --> 00:24:56.380 to two nearby villages. And systematically murders 00:24:56.380 --> 00:24:59.619 16 Afghan civilians in their homes, including 00:24:59.619 --> 00:25:02.380 nine children. Before setting some of their bodies 00:25:02.380 --> 00:25:04.599 on fire. And the hits just keep coming. Another 00:25:04.599 --> 00:25:07.359 video emerges showing a U .S. helicopter crew 00:25:07.359 --> 00:25:10.240 singing the pop song American Pie while firing 00:25:10.240 --> 00:25:12.680 a Hellfire missile into a group of Afghan men 00:25:12.680 --> 00:25:15.500 on the ground. It's just devastating. So put 00:25:15.500 --> 00:25:17.759 yourself in the shoes of an Afghan army commander. 00:25:18.140 --> 00:25:20.200 How on earth are you supposed to motivate your 00:25:20.200 --> 00:25:21.779 troops to fight alongside the Americans? You 00:25:21.779 --> 00:25:25.359 can't. Right. How is a coalition military supposed 00:25:25.359 --> 00:25:29.019 to successfully train and advise an allied Afghan 00:25:29.019 --> 00:25:32.799 force when these high profile, incredibly disrespectful 00:25:32.799 --> 00:25:35.660 and murderous incidents are constantly destroying 00:25:35.660 --> 00:25:39.700 any shred of mutual respect? It created an insurmountable 00:25:39.700 --> 00:25:42.839 fracture. This is the era where we see a massive 00:25:42.839 --> 00:25:45.680 spike in what the military called green on blue 00:25:45.680 --> 00:25:47.799 attacks. Explain the mechanics of that. What 00:25:47.799 --> 00:25:50.460 is a green on blue attack? Green refers to the 00:25:50.460 --> 00:25:53.549 allied Afghan security forces. And blue refers 00:25:53.549 --> 00:25:56.890 to NATO or US forces. These were insider attacks. 00:25:57.329 --> 00:25:59.549 Meaning? Afghan soldiers or police officers or 00:25:59.549 --> 00:26:02.210 Taliban infiltrators wearing their uniforms would 00:26:02.210 --> 00:26:04.690 turn their weapons on the American or British 00:26:04.690 --> 00:26:06.569 troops who were embedded with them to train them. 00:26:06.589 --> 00:26:09.809 Wow. It bred an atmosphere of profound paranoia. 00:26:10.150 --> 00:26:12.049 US soldiers were ordered to carry loaded weapons 00:26:12.049 --> 00:26:15.130 at all times, even inside their own secure bases. 00:26:15.390 --> 00:26:17.269 Essentially expecting the people they were training 00:26:17.269 --> 00:26:19.569 to shoot them in the back. Exactly. It's a complete 00:26:19.569 --> 00:26:22.359 degradation of the partnership. exact narrative 00:26:22.359 --> 00:26:24.859 the Taliban were pushing, that the foreign forces 00:26:24.859 --> 00:26:27.480 were immoral occupiers that brought nothing but 00:26:27.480 --> 00:26:30.319 degradation. Yet despite this toxic environment, 00:26:30.859 --> 00:26:33.480 the political timeline moves forward, regardless 00:26:33.480 --> 00:26:36.759 of the reality on the ground. By June 2013, the 00:26:36.759 --> 00:26:38.740 transfer of security responsibilities from NATO 00:26:38.740 --> 00:26:41.079 to the Afghan forces is officially completed 00:26:41.079 --> 00:26:43.880 on paper. The dynamic of the war fundamentally 00:26:43.880 --> 00:26:47.099 shifts. ISAF prepares to end its combat mission. 00:26:47.240 --> 00:26:49.599 Setting the stage for the transition to an Afghan 00:26:49.599 --> 00:26:53.480 -led war from 2014 to 2017. So in 2014, combat 00:26:53.480 --> 00:26:55.980 operations officially end for the U .S. and its 00:26:55.980 --> 00:26:58.799 allies. The mission changes its name to Resolute 00:26:58.799 --> 00:27:01.299 Support. The goal is no longer leading the fight. 00:27:01.480 --> 00:27:04.200 It's training, advising, and assisting the Afghan 00:27:04.200 --> 00:27:06.859 National Defense and Security Forces from the 00:27:06.859 --> 00:27:08.700 rear. But here is where we need to look at the 00:27:08.700 --> 00:27:11.720 logistical reality. As the official foreign military 00:27:11.720 --> 00:27:14.740 presence shrinks drastically, dropping down to 00:27:14.740 --> 00:27:18.480 just over 10 ,000 troops, a massive shadow army 00:27:18.480 --> 00:27:20.900 steps in to replace them. Military contractors. 00:27:21.200 --> 00:27:22.740 Let's dive into how this actually works, because 00:27:22.740 --> 00:27:24.980 people hear contractors and they think of mercenaries 00:27:24.980 --> 00:27:27.380 with assault rifles. Right. But it's much more 00:27:27.380 --> 00:27:29.839 structural than that, isn't it? Absolutely. The 00:27:29.839 --> 00:27:32.740 U .S. government hired tens of thousands of private 00:27:32.740 --> 00:27:36.180 contractors to fill the gaping logistical voids 00:27:36.180 --> 00:27:38.680 left by withdrawing troops. While some provided 00:27:38.680 --> 00:27:41.500 perimeter security, the vast majority were essential 00:27:41.500 --> 00:27:44.279 technicians, right? They were the mechanics maintaining 00:27:44.279 --> 00:27:46.859 the Afghan Air Force's Black Hawk helicopters. 00:27:47.539 --> 00:27:50.079 They were the IT specialists running the secure 00:27:50.079 --> 00:27:52.680 communication networks. They were managing the 00:27:52.680 --> 00:27:55.400 complex supply chains required to move ammunition 00:27:55.400 --> 00:27:58.319 and fuel across a mountainous country. The Afghan 00:27:58.319 --> 00:28:00.880 military It was built by the U .S. to fight like 00:28:00.880 --> 00:28:03.019 the U .S. military. Which means it required an 00:28:03.019 --> 00:28:05.259 incredibly sophisticated, expensive logistical 00:28:05.259 --> 00:28:08.059 tail. Exactly. So the Afghan army is like a high 00:28:08.059 --> 00:28:10.119 end sports car. It looks great. It has massive 00:28:10.119 --> 00:28:13.240 firepower, but it requires incredibly specialized 00:28:13.240 --> 00:28:15.299 mechanics to keep it running. And those mechanics 00:28:15.299 --> 00:28:17.799 are almost entirely foreign contractors. Wow. 00:28:18.099 --> 00:28:20.279 And with the Afghan army now officially taking 00:28:20.279 --> 00:28:22.599 the brunt of the frontline combat, the cracks 00:28:22.599 --> 00:28:26.059 in that system immediately show. In 2015, the 00:28:26.059 --> 00:28:28.380 northern city of Kunduz falls to the Taliban. 00:28:28.619 --> 00:28:31.019 The Taliban taking a major provincial capital 00:28:31.019 --> 00:28:33.799 is a massive shock to the system. It was brief. 00:28:34.279 --> 00:28:37.319 The Afghan forces, heavily relying on U .S. airstrikes 00:28:37.319 --> 00:28:40.480 and special operations advisors, recaptured the 00:28:40.480 --> 00:28:42.940 city a couple of weeks later. But the psychological 00:28:42.940 --> 00:28:46.279 damage was permanent. The fall of Kunduz proved 00:28:46.279 --> 00:28:49.099 to the Afghan public and to the Taliban themselves 00:28:49.099 --> 00:28:51.839 that the insurgents were capable of capturing 00:28:51.839 --> 00:28:54.859 and holding major urban centers against the Afghan 00:28:54.859 --> 00:28:58.039 National Army. And just when you think the battlefield 00:28:58.039 --> 00:29:00.579 couldn't get more chaotic, the conflict fractures 00:29:00.579 --> 00:29:03.619 again. A brand new hyperviolent faction enters 00:29:03.619 --> 00:29:06.380 the fray. In 2015, the Islamic State Khorasan 00:29:06.380 --> 00:29:09.519 province, known as ISIS -K, officially emerges 00:29:09.519 --> 00:29:12.539 in eastern Afghanistan. This development completely 00:29:12.539 --> 00:29:15.279 scrambles the tactical map. ISIS -K represents 00:29:15.279 --> 00:29:17.920 a fundamental ideological split. Because they 00:29:17.920 --> 00:29:20.079 view the Taliban as essentially sellouts, right? 00:29:20.220 --> 00:29:22.819 Yeah, too focused on Afghan nationalism, too 00:29:22.819 --> 00:29:25.809 willing to engage in diplomacy and not radically 00:29:25.809 --> 00:29:27.910 pure enough in their vision of a global caliphate. 00:29:28.089 --> 00:29:30.089 So now it's not a two -sided war. You have the 00:29:30.089 --> 00:29:31.990 Afghan government fighting the Taliban. You have 00:29:31.990 --> 00:29:34.210 the Afghan government fighting ISIS -K. And you 00:29:34.210 --> 00:29:36.650 have the Taliban fighting ISIS -K in brutal turf 00:29:36.650 --> 00:29:39.970 wars. It's a devastating three -way meat grinder. 00:29:40.470 --> 00:29:44.049 Furthermore, within the Taliban umbrella itself... 00:29:43.710 --> 00:29:46.130 Power dynamics are shifting. The Akani network. 00:29:46.410 --> 00:29:49.210 Yes. A semi -autonomous, highly organized and 00:29:49.210 --> 00:29:52.289 notoriously brutal faction based near the Pakistani 00:29:52.289 --> 00:29:55.470 border. They gain immense operational control. 00:29:56.390 --> 00:29:58.750 They steer the Taliban toward deadlier, high 00:29:58.750 --> 00:30:01.369 profile complex attacks in urban centers like 00:30:01.369 --> 00:30:04.170 Kabul. Focusing heavily on mass casualty bombings. 00:30:04.430 --> 00:30:07.390 By 2017, the political winds in Washington shift 00:30:07.390 --> 00:30:10.009 again. The Trump administration comes in, reviews 00:30:10.009 --> 00:30:12.569 the stalemate, and decides to try and bomb their 00:30:12.569 --> 00:30:14.910 way out of the deadlock. They deploy a few thousand 00:30:14.910 --> 00:30:18.109 more troops. But more importantly, they fundamentally 00:30:18.109 --> 00:30:20.309 alter the rules of engagement. Explain that. 00:30:20.390 --> 00:30:23.170 What changed? Previously, to minimize civilian 00:30:23.170 --> 00:30:25.589 casualties, U .S. air power was heavily restricted. 00:30:26.109 --> 00:30:27.970 Airstrikes usually required troops on the ground 00:30:27.970 --> 00:30:30.569 to be in direct contact, actively taking fire 00:30:30.569 --> 00:30:32.480 from the enemy. But the Trump administration 00:30:32.480 --> 00:30:34.799 relaxed those rules. They allowed commanders 00:30:34.799 --> 00:30:38.140 to proactively target insurgent networks. And 00:30:38.140 --> 00:30:40.319 a massive part of this new strategy was heavily 00:30:40.319 --> 00:30:42.599 targeting Taliban drug production facilities. 00:30:43.140 --> 00:30:44.599 Let's talk about the drug trade because it's 00:30:44.599 --> 00:30:47.079 the financial engine of the war. It really is. 00:30:47.319 --> 00:30:50.039 Despite billions of dollars spent over a decade 00:30:50.039 --> 00:30:53.380 and a half on poppy eradication programs, you 00:30:53.380 --> 00:30:56.240 know, paying farmers to grow wheat instead or 00:30:56.240 --> 00:30:58.839 literally driving tractors over poppy fields. 00:30:59.820 --> 00:31:03.079 Afghanistan remained the world's absolute undisputed 00:31:03.079 --> 00:31:06.000 largest producer of illicit opiates. The opiate 00:31:06.000 --> 00:31:08.519 trade was deeply ingrained in the rural economy. 00:31:08.960 --> 00:31:11.920 And for the Taliban, it was a golden goose. Because 00:31:11.920 --> 00:31:14.440 they taxed the farmers, they protected the smuggling 00:31:14.440 --> 00:31:16.910 routes, and they ran the processing labs. The 00:31:16.910 --> 00:31:19.230 intelligence estimates suggested the drug trade 00:31:19.230 --> 00:31:21.950 was generating tens of millions of dollars annually 00:31:21.950 --> 00:31:25.009 for the insurgency. Easily funding their weapons, 00:31:25.349 --> 00:31:27.450 salaries and explosives. So the U .S. starts 00:31:27.450 --> 00:31:29.910 dropping incredibly expensive precision bombs 00:31:29.910 --> 00:31:33.009 on makeshift drug labs in Hellman province. But 00:31:33.009 --> 00:31:35.049 dropping a hundred thousand dollar bomb on a 00:31:35.049 --> 00:31:37.630 mud hut full of opium isn't going to end a guerrilla 00:31:37.630 --> 00:31:40.720 war. No, it's not. By 2018, the stark reality 00:31:40.720 --> 00:31:43.740 sets in across all capitals. A strict military 00:31:43.740 --> 00:31:46.220 victory is mathematically out of reach for everyone. 00:31:46.599 --> 00:31:48.960 The Afghan government, even with U .S. air support, 00:31:49.220 --> 00:31:51.400 cannot completely eradicate the Taliban from 00:31:51.400 --> 00:31:54.000 the rural areas. The Taliban, as long as U .S. 00:31:54.160 --> 00:31:56.299 bombers are flying overhead, cannot completely 00:31:56.299 --> 00:31:58.380 topple the government in Kabul. And the American 00:31:58.380 --> 00:32:01.099 public is completely exhausted. Which leads us 00:32:01.099 --> 00:32:04.660 into the critical final diplomatic phase, the 00:32:04.660 --> 00:32:08.759 years 2018 to 2020. the peace overtures and the 00:32:08.759 --> 00:32:11.559 Doha agreement. And this period begins not with 00:32:11.559 --> 00:32:14.579 diplomats in suits, but with a truly remarkable, 00:32:14.880 --> 00:32:18.339 heartbreaking moment of grassroots civilian desperation. 00:32:18.740 --> 00:32:21.539 In early 2018, an unprecedented peace movement 00:32:21.539 --> 00:32:24.480 erupts organically in Afghanistan. The media 00:32:24.480 --> 00:32:26.980 dubbed it the Helmand Peace Convoy. It started 00:32:26.980 --> 00:32:29.000 in Helmand province, which had arguably seen 00:32:29.000 --> 00:32:31.779 the most intense, prolonged combat of the entire 00:32:31.779 --> 00:32:34.920 war. And a group of regular Afghan citizens, 00:32:35.279 --> 00:32:38.440 teachers, Civil society activists decided they 00:32:38.440 --> 00:32:40.619 had simply had enough of the daily slaughter. 00:32:40.759 --> 00:32:42.559 They began walking. They walked several hundred 00:32:42.559 --> 00:32:44.920 kilometers right through active war zones, right 00:32:44.920 --> 00:32:47.400 through Taliban held territory, all the way to 00:32:47.400 --> 00:32:49.420 the capital city of Kabul. They held sit -in 00:32:49.420 --> 00:32:52.559 protests, enduring blistering heat and fasting 00:32:52.559 --> 00:32:55.289 for Ramadan on the road. demanding an immediate 00:32:55.289 --> 00:32:58.289 end to the violence from both sides. And their 00:32:58.289 --> 00:33:01.009 immense courage actually helped pressure leadership 00:33:01.009 --> 00:33:04.910 on both sides to agree to an unprecedented temporary 00:33:04.910 --> 00:33:07.569 ceasefire during the Eid al -Fitr celebrations 00:33:07.569 --> 00:33:11.269 in June 2018. And the scenes that unfolded during 00:33:11.269 --> 00:33:13.829 those three days were completely surreal. You 00:33:13.829 --> 00:33:16.750 had Taliban fighters, guys who had spent years 00:33:16.750 --> 00:33:19.170 hiding in mountains, flooding into the cities. 00:33:19.390 --> 00:33:21.509 They were taking selfies with locals, eating 00:33:21.509 --> 00:33:24.220 ice cream and literally hugging state security 00:33:24.220 --> 00:33:26.920 forces in the streets. It was a profound psychological 00:33:26.920 --> 00:33:29.940 release, but it also terrified the leadership 00:33:29.940 --> 00:33:32.079 of both the Taliban and the Afghan government. 00:33:32.299 --> 00:33:34.319 Because it highlighted just how desperate the 00:33:34.319 --> 00:33:37.140 average Afghan citizen was for peace. The rank 00:33:37.140 --> 00:33:39.279 -and -file fighters were tired of fighting. The 00:33:39.279 --> 00:33:41.680 ceasefire inevitably expires and the violence 00:33:41.680 --> 00:33:44.579 resumes. But the diplomatic gears are finally 00:33:44.579 --> 00:33:47.140 turning. Direct, high -level talks begin between 00:33:47.140 --> 00:33:50.019 the United States and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. 00:33:50.259 --> 00:33:52.380 And a key figure sitting across a table representing 00:33:52.380 --> 00:33:55.220 the insurgents is Abdugani Berdar. Berdar is 00:33:55.220 --> 00:33:57.259 a fascinating figure. He was a co -founder of 00:33:57.259 --> 00:33:59.960 the Taliban alongside Mullah Omar. He had actually 00:33:59.960 --> 00:34:02.519 been arrested by Pakistani intelligence in 2010. 00:34:02.750 --> 00:34:05.930 But the U .S. requested his release in 2018, 00:34:06.470 --> 00:34:08.369 specifically because they believed he carried 00:34:08.369 --> 00:34:10.889 enough authority within the Taliban ranks to 00:34:10.889 --> 00:34:13.409 negotiate a binding peace deal. So the U .S. 00:34:13.409 --> 00:34:16.230 and the Taliban sit down in Doha, and on February 00:34:16.230 --> 00:34:20.150 29th, 2020, they sign a historic conditional 00:34:20.150 --> 00:34:22.989 peace agreement. The mechanics of the deal are 00:34:22.989 --> 00:34:25.309 relatively straightforward on paper. The United 00:34:25.309 --> 00:34:28.389 States agrees to a full phased withdrawal of 00:34:28.389 --> 00:34:31.449 all its military forces and all NATO coalition 00:34:31.449 --> 00:34:34.070 forces within 14 months. And in exchange for 00:34:34.070 --> 00:34:36.550 the Americans leaving, the Taliban pledges a 00:34:36.550 --> 00:34:39.429 single core security guarantee. Which is? They 00:34:39.429 --> 00:34:41.769 promise not to let Afghan soil be used by any 00:34:41.769 --> 00:34:44.269 militant group, including al -Qaeda, to stage 00:34:44.269 --> 00:34:46.230 terrorist attacks against the United States and 00:34:46.230 --> 00:34:48.510 its allies. Essentially, the U .S. says we are 00:34:48.510 --> 00:34:50.409 leaving and the Taliban says we won't let another 00:34:50.409 --> 00:34:53.340 9 -11 happen. Right. But there is a glaring, 00:34:53.400 --> 00:34:56.500 massive, fatal omission in this treaty. A missing 00:34:56.500 --> 00:34:59.119 chair at the table. The internationally recognized 00:34:59.119 --> 00:35:02.059 Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani 00:35:02.059 --> 00:35:05.219 in Kabul is not a party to the deal. The United 00:35:05.219 --> 00:35:07.860 States negotiated the terms of Afghanistan's 00:35:07.860 --> 00:35:11.079 future directly with the insurgents. completely 00:35:11.079 --> 00:35:13.159 excluding the sovereign government they had spent 00:35:13.159 --> 00:35:15.800 20 years bleeding to protect. Think about the 00:35:15.800 --> 00:35:18.360 crushing tragedy of that dynamic. The Helmand 00:35:18.360 --> 00:35:21.519 Peace Convoy marches hundreds of miles, citizens 00:35:21.519 --> 00:35:23.840 risking their lives, begging for their voices 00:35:23.840 --> 00:35:26.639 to be heard in the peace process. But the ultimate 00:35:26.639 --> 00:35:29.199 fate of their country is decided in a luxury 00:35:29.199 --> 00:35:32.300 hotel room in Qatar. Between American diplomats 00:35:32.300 --> 00:35:35.960 and Taliban commanders bypassing the Afghan voters 00:35:35.960 --> 00:35:38.239 entirely. Let's analyze the mechanical effect 00:35:38.239 --> 00:35:41.119 of that decision. By negotiating directly with 00:35:41.119 --> 00:35:43.420 the Taliban and deliberately sidelining the government 00:35:43.420 --> 00:35:47.219 in Kabul, the United States inherently delegitimized 00:35:47.219 --> 00:35:49.800 President Ghani. The U .S. signaled to the entire 00:35:49.800 --> 00:35:52.119 country, and crucially to the Afghan military, 00:35:52.480 --> 00:35:54.719 that the real power rested with the Taliban. 00:35:55.019 --> 00:35:57.000 The psychological damage to the Afghan state 00:35:57.000 --> 00:35:59.840 was terminal. President Ghani is absolutely furious, 00:36:00.079 --> 00:36:03.039 and understandably so. He's particularly enraged 00:36:03.039 --> 00:36:05.440 because the U .S. Taliban deal includes a mandate 00:36:05.440 --> 00:36:08.320 for the release of up to 5 ,000 Taliban prisoners 00:36:08.320 --> 00:36:11.239 currently held in Afghan government jails. Ghani 00:36:11.239 --> 00:36:14.019 rightly points out that the U .S. diplomats do 00:36:14.019 --> 00:36:17.380 not have the legal or moral authority to promise 00:36:17.380 --> 00:36:19.820 the release of prisoners held in another sovereign 00:36:19.820 --> 00:36:23.219 nation's prisons. But Ghani's government is entirely 00:36:23.219 --> 00:36:26.260 dependent on U .S. financial aid and military 00:36:26.260 --> 00:36:29.550 support to survive. So, under immense pressure 00:36:29.550 --> 00:36:32.110 from Washington, who is desperate to keep the 00:36:32.110 --> 00:36:34.969 peace deal intact, Ghani is ultimately forced 00:36:34.969 --> 00:36:37.369 to capitulate. The Afghan government releases 00:36:37.369 --> 00:36:40.489 the 5 ,000 prisoners. Thousands of battle -hardened 00:36:40.489 --> 00:36:42.909 Taliban commanders and fighters are injected 00:36:42.909 --> 00:36:45.389 directly back into the insurgent ranks. Right 00:36:45.389 --> 00:36:48.150 at the exact moment the U .S. military is actively 00:36:48.150 --> 00:36:50.329 packing up its bases to leave. Which brings us 00:36:50.329 --> 00:36:53.260 to the catastrophic climax of our timeline. the 00:36:53.260 --> 00:36:56.219 year 2021, the final offensive, and the last 00:36:56.219 --> 00:36:58.460 flight out. The new Biden administration assumes 00:36:58.460 --> 00:37:01.219 office in Washington. After a brief review, President 00:37:01.219 --> 00:37:03.199 Biden announces that he will honor the withdrawal 00:37:03.199 --> 00:37:05.739 agreement initiated by his predecessor, extending 00:37:05.739 --> 00:37:08.460 the final deadline slightly to the end of August 00:37:08.460 --> 00:37:11.739 2021. And the Taliban, seeing the clock ticking 00:37:11.739 --> 00:37:14.659 down and the U .S. troops actively leaving, launch 00:37:14.659 --> 00:37:17.619 a sweeping massive summer offensive. The speed 00:37:17.619 --> 00:37:20.599 of this final offensive stunned the entire global 00:37:20.599 --> 00:37:22.900 intelligence community. In the first three months 00:37:22.900 --> 00:37:26.340 of the summer, the Taliban captured vast swaths 00:37:26.340 --> 00:37:28.880 of the rural countryside. They isolated the provincial 00:37:28.880 --> 00:37:31.639 capitals, cutting off supply lines. And then 00:37:31.639 --> 00:37:34.820 the cities began falling like dominoes. It wasn't 00:37:34.820 --> 00:37:38.500 a slow, grinding, fighting retreat by the Afghan 00:37:38.500 --> 00:37:41.800 National Army. It was a damn breaking. Entire 00:37:41.800 --> 00:37:44.460 corps were surrendering without firing a single 00:37:44.460 --> 00:37:47.539 shot. I mean, how does a military of over 300 00:37:47.539 --> 00:37:50.519 ,000 nominally trained soldiers melt away in 00:37:50.519 --> 00:37:52.860 a matter of weeks? We have to return to the sports 00:37:52.860 --> 00:37:55.099 car analogy from earlier. Right, the structural 00:37:55.099 --> 00:37:57.599 reliance. The collapse was a structural inevitability. 00:37:57.920 --> 00:38:00.699 It wasn't simply a lack of moral will to fight 00:38:00.699 --> 00:38:03.280 among the average Afghan soldier. As we discussed, 00:38:03.500 --> 00:38:05.960 the Afghan military apparatus was structurally 00:38:05.960 --> 00:38:08.500 designed to rely on advanced U .S. logistics. 00:38:08.699 --> 00:38:10.900 It required close air support to break Taliban 00:38:10.900 --> 00:38:13.400 sieges. It required U .S. intelligence gathering 00:38:13.400 --> 00:38:15.900 to know where the enemy was. And crucially, it 00:38:15.900 --> 00:38:18.739 required thousands of civilian contractors to 00:38:18.739 --> 00:38:21.139 maintain their aircraft and weapons systems. 00:38:21.500 --> 00:38:23.280 When the U .S. announced the final withdrawal, 00:38:23.780 --> 00:38:25.500 they didn't just pull out the combat troops. 00:38:25.880 --> 00:38:28.260 They pulled out the contractors overnight. They 00:38:28.260 --> 00:38:30.400 turned off the intelligence feeds. They grounded 00:38:30.400 --> 00:38:33.199 the air support. They removed the scaffolding. 00:38:33.940 --> 00:38:36.199 Once that framework was abruptly yanked away, 00:38:36.519 --> 00:38:39.340 the Afghan military apparatus physically could 00:38:39.340 --> 00:38:42.559 not sustain itself. Soldiers out in remote outposts 00:38:42.559 --> 00:38:45.239 ran out of food and ammunition. When they radioed 00:38:45.239 --> 00:38:48.260 for an airdrop of supplies or a medevac for their 00:38:48.260 --> 00:38:51.449 wounded, no helicopters came. because there were 00:38:51.449 --> 00:38:53.670 no contractors left to repair the helicopters. 00:38:54.030 --> 00:38:56.090 Realizing they were completely abandoned by Kabul 00:38:56.090 --> 00:38:59.090 and Washington, local commanders made the rational 00:38:59.090 --> 00:39:01.969 survival choice. They cut deals with the advancing 00:39:01.969 --> 00:39:05.250 Taliban to surrender in exchange for their lives. 00:39:05.429 --> 00:39:07.989 And the collapse accelerates exponentially. On 00:39:07.989 --> 00:39:11.789 August 15th, 2021, Taliban fighters walk unopposed 00:39:11.789 --> 00:39:14.190 into the capital city of Kabul. President Ashraf 00:39:14.190 --> 00:39:17.449 Ghani, realizing the security forces have evaporated, 00:39:17.769 --> 00:39:19.949 boards a helicopter and flees the country. The 00:39:19.949 --> 00:39:22.610 Taliban seize the empty presidential palace and 00:39:22.610 --> 00:39:25.190 declare total victory. The sudden fall of Kabul 00:39:25.190 --> 00:39:27.710 triggered an immediate massive panic among the 00:39:27.710 --> 00:39:30.789 population, leading directly to the frantic airlift 00:39:30.789 --> 00:39:33.389 at Hamid Karzai International Airport. For two 00:39:33.389 --> 00:39:36.050 grueling weeks, the airport becomes the only 00:39:36.050 --> 00:39:38.670 heavily fortified piece of American held territory 00:39:38.670 --> 00:39:41.190 left in the country. And the scenes are apocalyptic. 00:39:41.449 --> 00:39:43.570 Tens of thousands of desperate people, foreign 00:39:43.570 --> 00:39:46.429 diplomats, aid workers and incredibly vulnerable 00:39:46.429 --> 00:39:48.849 Afghans who had spent years working alongside 00:39:48.849 --> 00:39:52.389 the coalition as translators or fixers swarmed 00:39:52.389 --> 00:39:55.429 the tarmac. Amidst total chaos, terror attacks 00:39:55.429 --> 00:39:58.789 by ISIS -K, and profound desperation, the U .S. 00:39:58.809 --> 00:40:02.210 and its allies managed to airlift over 122 ,000 00:40:02.210 --> 00:40:04.210 people out of the country. It was one of the 00:40:04.210 --> 00:40:06.710 largest non -combatant evacuation operations 00:40:06.710 --> 00:40:09.269 in military history. But it was a chaotic bloody 00:40:09.269 --> 00:40:11.809 exit. The footage of young Afghan men clinging 00:40:11.809 --> 00:40:14.610 to the landing gear of moving C -17 transport 00:40:14.610 --> 00:40:17.289 planes falling from the sky as the plane ascends 00:40:17.289 --> 00:40:19.889 will forever be the defining tragic image of 00:40:19.889 --> 00:40:21.889 the end of this war. And finally, on the stroke 00:40:21.889 --> 00:40:24.789 of midnight on August 30, the final U .S. Air 00:40:24.789 --> 00:40:26.920 Force plane lifts off from the runway. After 00:40:26.920 --> 00:40:29.440 19 years, 10 months, three weeks, and two days, 00:40:29.639 --> 00:40:31.480 the longest war in American history is officially 00:40:31.480 --> 00:40:34.380 over. Which leaves us with the aftermath. We 00:40:34.380 --> 00:40:36.800 have to look at the sobering, devastating reality 00:40:36.800 --> 00:40:40.119 of what the coalition left behind once the dust 00:40:40.119 --> 00:40:42.699 settled on that empty runway. The sheer human 00:40:42.699 --> 00:40:45.800 cost of the conflict is staggering. The historical 00:40:45.800 --> 00:40:49.400 data estimates that between 176 ,000 and well 00:40:49.400 --> 00:40:52.460 over 212 ,000 people were killed directly in 00:40:52.460 --> 00:40:55.760 the violence. That includes over 46 ,000 Afghan 00:40:55.760 --> 00:40:58.460 civilians caught in the crossfire. And over 66 00:40:58.460 --> 00:41:01.579 ,000 Afghan national security forces who died 00:41:01.579 --> 00:41:04.659 fighting the insurgency. And the immediate humanitarian 00:41:04.659 --> 00:41:07.260 crisis that followed the Taliban's takeover was 00:41:07.260 --> 00:41:11.119 severe and systemic. Over 2 .6 million Afghans 00:41:11.119 --> 00:41:14.039 remained as refugees abroad, with another 4 million 00:41:14.039 --> 00:41:16.239 internally displaced within the country's borders. 00:41:16.619 --> 00:41:18.780 International aid, which had propped up the Afghan 00:41:18.780 --> 00:41:21.400 economy for two decades, was instantly suspended. 00:41:21.699 --> 00:41:24.099 Billions of dollars in Afghan central bank assets 00:41:24.099 --> 00:41:26.260 were frozen in Western banks to keep them out 00:41:26.260 --> 00:41:29.380 of Taliban hands. This financial shock accelerated 00:41:29.380 --> 00:41:32.039 a widespread economic collapse, plunging millions 00:41:32.039 --> 00:41:34.559 into extreme poverty and triggering acute warnings 00:41:34.559 --> 00:41:37.139 of famine. And as we touched on earlier, despite 00:41:37.139 --> 00:41:39.469 all the billions and spent and all the bombs 00:41:39.469 --> 00:41:42.429 dropped on drug labs, the country remained an 00:41:42.429 --> 00:41:45.250 entrenched narco state. Cementing its status 00:41:45.250 --> 00:41:48.469 as the world's largest opiate producer. But perhaps 00:41:48.469 --> 00:41:50.789 the most damning revelation about the fundamental 00:41:50.789 --> 00:41:53.349 nature of the war came slightly before the chaotic 00:41:53.349 --> 00:41:56.230 end in 2019 with the release of what became known 00:41:56.230 --> 00:41:59.079 as the Afghanistan Papers. The Afghanistan papers 00:41:59.079 --> 00:42:02.760 were a trove of over 2 ,000 pages of confidential 00:42:02.760 --> 00:42:04.920 government documents obtained and published by 00:42:04.920 --> 00:42:07.360 the Washington Post. These documents were generated 00:42:07.360 --> 00:42:10.420 by a federal watchdog agency, and they contained 00:42:10.420 --> 00:42:13.699 candid, unpublished interviews with over 400 00:42:13.699 --> 00:42:17.079 key military and political figures who were directly 00:42:17.079 --> 00:42:19.340 involved in managing the war. And what did these 00:42:19.340 --> 00:42:22.460 internal documents reveal? They showed a shocking 00:42:22.460 --> 00:42:25.179 systemic pattern of deceit. They revealed that 00:42:25.179 --> 00:42:27.719 U .S. officials across multiple administrations 00:42:27.719 --> 00:42:30.360 consistently and deliberately misled the public 00:42:30.360 --> 00:42:33.119 about the reality on the ground. Behind closed 00:42:33.119 --> 00:42:35.579 doors, generals and diplomats admitted they had 00:42:35.579 --> 00:42:37.739 no idea what they were doing, that the strategy 00:42:37.739 --> 00:42:40.340 was fundamentally flawed, and that the conflict 00:42:40.340 --> 00:42:43.050 was unwinnable. But publicly, they kept spinning 00:42:43.050 --> 00:42:45.929 the data to present a false narrative of continuous 00:42:45.929 --> 00:42:48.690 progress. The documents connect the dots of failure 00:42:48.690 --> 00:42:51.269 across two decades. They highlight the early 00:42:51.269 --> 00:42:54.349 tactical arrogance in 2001, the catastrophic 00:42:54.349 --> 00:42:57.010 diversion of resources to Iraq, their alliance 00:42:57.010 --> 00:43:00.010 on corrupt warlords and the inability to understand 00:43:00.010 --> 00:43:02.789 Afghan culture. They prove that the systemic 00:43:02.789 --> 00:43:05.389 failures that caused the rapid collapse in 2021 00:43:05.389 --> 00:43:07.989 were recognized internally by leadership long 00:43:07.989 --> 00:43:09.869 before they were ever admitted to the public. 00:43:10.139 --> 00:43:13.079 And the most painful lingering wound of this 00:43:13.079 --> 00:43:16.960 aftermath is the profound sense of betrayal felt 00:43:16.960 --> 00:43:20.320 by the Afghan allies who were left behind when 00:43:20.320 --> 00:43:22.860 the music stopped. The historical record specifically 00:43:22.860 --> 00:43:25.500 highlights the agonizing plight of former Afghan 00:43:25.500 --> 00:43:27.940 special forces. These were the absolute elite 00:43:27.940 --> 00:43:30.460 troops heavily vetted who fought shoulder to 00:43:30.460 --> 00:43:32.980 shoulder with NATO operators for years. Their 00:43:32.980 --> 00:43:35.579 treatment post withdrawal has been heavily scrutinized. 00:43:35.739 --> 00:43:37.400 For instance, reports emerged that hundreds of 00:43:37.400 --> 00:43:39.739 these elite Afghan commandos who fought directly 00:43:39.739 --> 00:43:42.380 alongside British troops were rejected for resettlement 00:43:42.380 --> 00:43:45.480 in the UK. One former UK Special Forces officer 00:43:45.480 --> 00:43:47.940 even publicly alleged that bureaucratic decisions 00:43:47.940 --> 00:43:50.719 in British headquarters actively prevented these 00:43:50.719 --> 00:43:53.719 former Afghan colleagues, some of whom were potential 00:43:53.719 --> 00:43:56.360 witnesses to alleged war crimes from securing 00:43:56.360 --> 00:43:59.380 safe passage. It highlights a dark, unresolved 00:43:59.380 --> 00:44:02.619 legacy of abandonment. So we arrive at the end 00:44:02.619 --> 00:44:04.800 of our chronological timeline. From the ashes 00:44:04.800 --> 00:44:08.000 of 9 -11 and the lightning -fast 2001 invasion 00:44:08.000 --> 00:44:11.730 through the fatal distraction of Iraq. The Taliban's 00:44:11.730 --> 00:44:14.590 relentless resurgence from the madrassas of Pakistan, 00:44:15.070 --> 00:44:17.329 the massive surges that failed to hold ground. 00:44:17.610 --> 00:44:19.690 The devastating cultural friction that destroyed 00:44:19.690 --> 00:44:22.630 trust, the exclusionary backroom peace talks 00:44:22.630 --> 00:44:26.110 in Doha, all the way to that frantic, apocalyptic 00:44:26.110 --> 00:44:29.619 final airlift in August 2021. And analyzing this 00:44:29.619 --> 00:44:31.900 20 year span is absolutely vital. It serves as 00:44:31.900 --> 00:44:34.440 a stark historical masterclass in the absolute 00:44:34.440 --> 00:44:36.940 limits of military intervention. It clearly demonstrates 00:44:36.940 --> 00:44:39.420 the mechanical reality that overwhelming tactical 00:44:39.420 --> 00:44:42.099 firepower can win battles. But those military 00:44:42.099 --> 00:44:44.099 victories will be completely, totally undone 00:44:44.099 --> 00:44:46.500 if you fail to secure an inclusive, culturally 00:44:46.500 --> 00:44:49.199 viable political settlement. You simply cannot 00:44:49.199 --> 00:44:52.199 build a functioning nation state entirely through 00:44:52.199 --> 00:44:55.050 the narrow lens of counterterrorism. We started 00:44:55.050 --> 00:44:57.230 this deep dive talking about the expectation 00:44:57.230 --> 00:45:00.530 of a clean narrative arc in history. We wanted 00:45:00.530 --> 00:45:03.559 a story with a clear moral. But the architecture 00:45:03.559 --> 00:45:06.119 of this 20 -year war wasn't a building being 00:45:06.119 --> 00:45:09.860 constructed. It was a sprawling, multi -trillion 00:45:09.860 --> 00:45:12.840 -dollar structure built on shifting sands. With 00:45:12.840 --> 00:45:15.619 a blueprint that changed every time a new general 00:45:15.619 --> 00:45:18.199 or politician took charge, while the original 00:45:18.199 --> 00:45:20.579 tenants simply waited patiently in the dark woods 00:45:20.579 --> 00:45:24.000 next door. And now, 20 years later, the original 00:45:24.000 --> 00:45:26.440 tenants hold the keys once again. Which leaves 00:45:26.440 --> 00:45:29.579 us with one final lingering thought to explore. 00:45:30.250 --> 00:45:33.389 What happens to a generation of Afghans, the 00:45:33.389 --> 00:45:35.429 millions of men, and especially the women who 00:45:35.429 --> 00:45:37.590 spent the last 20 years growing up under the 00:45:37.590 --> 00:45:40.409 promise, however flawed and corrupt, of a republic? 00:45:40.590 --> 00:45:42.650 A generation who were told by the international 00:45:42.650 --> 00:45:44.849 community that they could vote, that they could 00:45:44.849 --> 00:45:46.889 attend university, that they could speak freely. 00:45:47.150 --> 00:45:49.469 What happens to the psychology of a nation when 00:45:49.469 --> 00:45:51.409 that generation wakes up one morning, looks out 00:45:51.409 --> 00:45:53.730 their window, and finds themselves living back 00:45:53.730 --> 00:45:56.679 in a fundamentalist emirate? How does a society 00:45:56.679 --> 00:46:00.280 reconcile the ghosts of a two decade war when 00:46:00.280 --> 00:46:02.380 the architects of that war have simply packed 00:46:02.380 --> 00:46:04.800 up their planes and flown away? That's all for 00:46:04.800 --> 00:46:05.719 today's Deep Dive.