WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.559 Imagine for a moment that you are a well a relatively 00:00:04.559 --> 00:00:07.519 new executive at a midsize company Okay, I'm 00:00:07.519 --> 00:00:10.439 picturing it right and you show up late to this 00:00:10.439 --> 00:00:14.259 massive industry conference and you realize that 00:00:14.259 --> 00:00:17.660 all the legacy corporations like the real heavyweights 00:00:18.199 --> 00:00:20.879 They're all in a back room. Oh, the classic smoke 00:00:20.879 --> 00:00:24.039 -filled room. Exactly. And they are actively 00:00:24.039 --> 00:00:26.960 divvying up the biggest unexploited client base 00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:28.980 in the entire world. They're signing exclusive 00:00:28.980 --> 00:00:31.000 contracts. They're locking down supply chains. 00:00:31.179 --> 00:00:33.179 And they are completely shutting you out. Which 00:00:33.179 --> 00:00:35.820 is terrifying for a new executive. Right. You 00:00:35.820 --> 00:00:37.840 don't have the leverage to force your way into 00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:39.380 their deal. And you definitely don't have the 00:00:39.380 --> 00:00:41.700 capital to buy them out. So you do something 00:00:41.700 --> 00:00:44.799 incredibly audacious. You draft a memo declaring 00:00:44.799 --> 00:00:46.859 that everyone has already agreed to a completely 00:00:46.859 --> 00:00:49.899 open free market policy where nobody gets exclusive 00:00:49.899 --> 00:00:52.579 rights. Completely making it up? Yes. You email 00:00:52.579 --> 00:00:55.079 it to all of them. And of course, they all reply 00:00:55.079 --> 00:00:57.039 with these vague evasions, essentially telling 00:00:57.039 --> 00:01:00.140 you to get lost. So what do you do? You hit Reply 00:01:00.140 --> 00:01:02.280 All, you cc the global press, and you announce, 00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:05.140 I am so glad we are all in unanimous agreement. 00:01:05.359 --> 00:01:08.060 Forcing them to publicly deny it or just play 00:01:08.060 --> 00:01:10.140 along. Exactly. You force their hand. You know, 00:01:10.140 --> 00:01:12.620 it sounds like a totally insane corporate fever 00:01:12.620 --> 00:01:16.340 dream, but that exact scenario, that high stakes, 00:01:16.439 --> 00:01:18.799 almost desperate bluff, it is not a business 00:01:18.799 --> 00:01:21.200 hypothetical at all. No, it's not. It is the 00:01:21.200 --> 00:01:24.019 literal foundation of one of the most consequential 00:01:24.019 --> 00:01:27.959 diplomatic maneuvers of the modern era. And it 00:01:27.959 --> 00:01:30.359 accidentally set the stage for a half century 00:01:30.359 --> 00:01:34.079 of global warfare. Which is wild. So welcome 00:01:34.079 --> 00:01:37.079 to this custom tailored deep dive designed specifically 00:01:37.079 --> 00:01:40.420 for you. Today, we are examining the origins, 00:01:40.719 --> 00:01:43.780 the primary goals, and the spectacular catastrophic 00:01:43.780 --> 00:01:46.780 failure of a foundational piece of late 19th 00:01:46.780 --> 00:01:49.879 century diplomacy. We are tearing apart the 1899 00:01:49.879 --> 00:01:52.400 open door policy. Yes, we are. We're going to 00:01:52.400 --> 00:01:55.200 explore exactly how and why this policy failed 00:01:55.200 --> 00:01:57.700 to prevent international conflicts over Chinese 00:01:57.700 --> 00:02:00.000 territory, and then how it morphed into something 00:02:00.000 --> 00:02:02.540 entirely different decades later. Right. Our 00:02:02.540 --> 00:02:04.840 source material today is this really comprehensive 00:02:04.840 --> 00:02:08.379 historical analysis. It details all the the economic 00:02:08.379 --> 00:02:11.139 and political intricacies of the open -door policy. 00:02:11.259 --> 00:02:14.500 It's a dense read, but so fascinating. It really 00:02:14.500 --> 00:02:18.319 is. We are tracking its evolution from this panicked 00:02:18.319 --> 00:02:21.240 American diplomatic note in 1899 straight through 00:02:21.240 --> 00:02:23.800 the blood -stoke decades of the early 20th century, 00:02:24.180 --> 00:02:26.639 all the way to its really ironic resurrection 00:02:26.639 --> 00:02:28.780 in modern China. So why should you care about 00:02:28.780 --> 00:02:31.280 a series of diplomatic notes from 1899? Because 00:02:31.280 --> 00:02:34.479 understanding how global superpowers fight over 00:02:34.479 --> 00:02:37.360 market access without firing a shot Well, until 00:02:37.360 --> 00:02:39.479 the pressure builds and they eventually do fire 00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:41.979 shot. Which they always do. Right. That is the 00:02:41.979 --> 00:02:44.800 absolute key to understanding modern geopolitics. 00:02:45.460 --> 00:02:48.080 The rhetoric of fairness and, you know, level 00:02:48.080 --> 00:02:51.780 playing fields is rarely. about actual justice. 00:02:52.340 --> 00:02:55.099 It is almost always a mask for economic desperation 00:02:55.099 --> 00:02:58.219 or a strategic play for dominance. Yeah, this 00:02:58.219 --> 00:03:00.539 history is just a master class in the mechanisms 00:03:00.539 --> 00:03:03.699 of informal empire. It forces us to look at how 00:03:03.699 --> 00:03:06.219 nations weaponize finance, infrastructure, and 00:03:06.219 --> 00:03:08.680 international law to extract wealth. And it perfectly 00:03:08.680 --> 00:03:10.939 illustrates the tragic reality that diplomatic 00:03:10.939 --> 00:03:13.659 policies lacking concrete enforcement mechanisms, 00:03:13.740 --> 00:03:15.900 they're just destined to collapse under the weight 00:03:15.900 --> 00:03:18.379 of sheer national self -interest. They absolutely 00:03:18.379 --> 00:03:21.060 are. So we need to rewind the clock a bit and 00:03:21.060 --> 00:03:24.199 look at the geopolitical map of the late 19th 00:03:24.199 --> 00:03:27.139 century. Let's do it. Our source material points 00:03:27.139 --> 00:03:30.300 to a very specific catalyst for this entire saga, 00:03:30.479 --> 00:03:33.219 which is the first Sino -Japanese war. That concluded 00:03:33.219 --> 00:03:36.879 in 1895, right? Yes, 1895. And before we even 00:03:36.879 --> 00:03:39.219 get to the Americans, we have to understand the 00:03:39.219 --> 00:03:42.000 sheer vulnerability of Qing Dynasty China at 00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:43.960 this exact moment. Because they were in a bad 00:03:43.960 --> 00:03:47.199 spot. A terrible spot. The loss in that first 00:03:47.199 --> 00:03:49.759 Sino -Japanese war was a massive shock to the 00:03:49.759 --> 00:03:52.379 global system. For decades, the massive Chinese 00:03:52.379 --> 00:03:54.960 empire had been enduring internal rebellions 00:03:54.960 --> 00:03:57.780 and external pressure from European powers. Mostly 00:03:57.780 --> 00:04:01.580 after the Opium Wars. Exactly. But being decisively 00:04:01.580 --> 00:04:04.500 defeated by Japan, a neighboring Asian nation 00:04:04.500 --> 00:04:07.539 that had rapidly industrialized, that was a glaring 00:04:07.539 --> 00:04:09.840 signal to the European empires that the Qing 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:11.900 government was severely weakened. Blood in the 00:04:11.900 --> 00:04:14.199 water. Total blood in the water. The fear wasn't 00:04:14.199 --> 00:04:16.100 just that China would lose a little territory. 00:04:16.540 --> 00:04:18.759 The fear, using a very evocative phrase that 00:04:18.759 --> 00:04:21.079 was popular in the diplomatic cables of the era, 00:04:21.500 --> 00:04:23.519 was that China was going to be carved up like 00:04:23.519 --> 00:04:26.079 a melon. Carved up like a melon. That brings 00:04:26.079 --> 00:04:28.079 up a mechanical question for me. When we say 00:04:28.079 --> 00:04:30.740 carved up, what does that actually look like 00:04:30.740 --> 00:04:33.660 on the ground? Good question. Because the text 00:04:33.660 --> 00:04:37.360 lists France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Japan, 00:04:37.560 --> 00:04:40.420 and Russia, all rushing to establish spheres 00:04:40.420 --> 00:04:43.709 of influence. But what is the functional difference 00:04:43.709 --> 00:04:46.649 between a sphere of influence and an actual formal 00:04:46.649 --> 00:04:49.769 colony? That is the critical distinction here. 00:04:49.930 --> 00:04:52.870 A formal colony involves actually planting a 00:04:52.870 --> 00:04:56.089 flag. You overthrow the local sovereign government 00:04:56.089 --> 00:04:59.069 and you take on the massive administrative and 00:04:59.069 --> 00:05:02.170 military burden of ruling that population directly. 00:05:02.410 --> 00:05:04.290 Like the British in India, basically. Exactly 00:05:04.290 --> 00:05:07.389 like the British in India. It's expensive. A 00:05:07.389 --> 00:05:10.370 sphere of influence, though, is a much more insidious 00:05:10.370 --> 00:05:13.509 parasitic relationship. The foreign power leaves 00:05:13.509 --> 00:05:16.089 the local government nominally intact. So the 00:05:16.089 --> 00:05:18.490 emperor is still on the throne. Right, but the 00:05:18.490 --> 00:05:21.230 foreign power extorts exclusive economic and 00:05:21.230 --> 00:05:24.170 legal concessions within a specific geographic 00:05:24.170 --> 00:05:26.089 region. So they aren't paying for the police 00:05:26.089 --> 00:05:28.410 or paving the roads, but they are extracting 00:05:28.410 --> 00:05:30.649 all the profit. You nailed it. How do they actually 00:05:30.649 --> 00:05:32.230 enforce that, though, if they aren't the government? 00:05:32.649 --> 00:05:35.089 Through a combination of gunboat diplomacy and 00:05:35.089 --> 00:05:38.610 financial coercion. Inside a sphere of influence, 00:05:38.970 --> 00:05:41.509 an empire would demand exclusive rights to build 00:05:41.509 --> 00:05:44.160 the railroads, for example. Okay, so they control 00:05:44.160 --> 00:05:47.000 the transport. Right. They would secure monopolies 00:05:47.000 --> 00:05:49.600 on extracting minerals from the mines. They would 00:05:49.600 --> 00:05:51.680 force the opening of treaty ports where only 00:05:51.680 --> 00:05:53.680 their national businesses could operate freely. 00:05:54.480 --> 00:05:56.319 And crucially, they imposed something called 00:05:56.319 --> 00:05:58.959 extra -territoriality. Extra -territoriality, 00:05:59.060 --> 00:06:02.120 meaning... foreign citizens operating in China 00:06:02.120 --> 00:06:05.300 weren't actually subject to Chinese law. Precisely. 00:06:05.360 --> 00:06:07.980 If a British merchant committed a crime or breached 00:06:07.980 --> 00:06:10.519 a contract in a British sphere, they were tried 00:06:10.519 --> 00:06:13.560 by a British consular court, not a Chinese judge. 00:06:13.639 --> 00:06:16.569 Wow. That's unbelievable. So these empires were 00:06:16.569 --> 00:06:19.269 essentially building fortified economic walled 00:06:19.269 --> 00:06:22.230 gardens within Chinese borders. If you were a 00:06:22.230 --> 00:06:24.110 merchant from a rival nation, you were either 00:06:24.110 --> 00:06:26.990 locked out entirely or you were taxed into oblivion. 00:06:27.089 --> 00:06:29.290 Just through discriminatory freight rates on 00:06:29.290 --> 00:06:31.550 the railroads and skewed arbor dues. Exactly, 00:06:31.670 --> 00:06:34.790 they just price you out. Okay, so while the European 00:06:34.790 --> 00:06:37.449 powers in Japan are furiously building these 00:06:37.449 --> 00:06:40.329 walled gardens, where is the United States in 00:06:40.329 --> 00:06:43.160 all this? Late to the party. Right. Because according 00:06:43.160 --> 00:06:45.579 to the source, the U .S. has just emerged from 00:06:45.579 --> 00:06:48.939 the Spanish -American War in 1898. They defeated 00:06:48.939 --> 00:06:51.879 Spain, and as part of the spoils, they acquire 00:06:51.879 --> 00:06:54.980 the Philippine Islands. Which is a huge turning 00:06:54.980 --> 00:06:57.839 point. Seemingly overnight. The United States 00:06:57.839 --> 00:07:00.779 transforms from a nation focused on its own continental 00:07:00.779 --> 00:07:02.920 expansion, you know, manifest destiny and all 00:07:02.920 --> 00:07:06.920 that, to an empire with a massive physical footprint 00:07:06.920 --> 00:07:09.480 in the Pacific. And that new geographic reality 00:07:09.480 --> 00:07:11.959 collides violently with an internal economic 00:07:11.959 --> 00:07:14.540 crisis back in America. Oh, right. In the late 00:07:14.540 --> 00:07:17.300 1890s, the United States is experiencing the 00:07:17.300 --> 00:07:19.920 absolute peak of the second industrial revolution. 00:07:20.540 --> 00:07:22.379 American factories are producing manufactured 00:07:22.379 --> 00:07:26.259 goods, steel, textiles, machinery at an unprecedented 00:07:26.250 --> 00:07:28.990 staggering rate. But there is a massive problem, 00:07:29.110 --> 00:07:31.209 isn't there? The huge one. The domestic market 00:07:31.209 --> 00:07:33.350 is completely saturated, people at home can't 00:07:33.350 --> 00:07:35.870 buy any more stuff, and the U .S. had just suffered 00:07:35.870 --> 00:07:38.370 through the panic of 1893, which was a brutal 00:07:38.370 --> 00:07:40.730 economic depression. I see where this is going. 00:07:41.829 --> 00:07:43.750 Politicians and industrialists were terrified 00:07:43.750 --> 00:07:46.129 that if they couldn't find new people to buy 00:07:46.129 --> 00:07:48.069 all this American stuff, factories would close. 00:07:48.589 --> 00:07:50.149 Yeah. Unemployment would skyrocket, and they 00:07:50.149 --> 00:07:54.230 might face severe social unrest. Or even, like... 00:07:53.879 --> 00:07:56.459 a socialist uprising at home. That was the exact 00:07:56.459 --> 00:07:59.720 fear. The concept of overproduction was the absolute 00:07:59.720 --> 00:08:02.420 boogeyman of American politics at the time. Wow. 00:08:03.420 --> 00:08:06.019 So American policymakers look across the Pacific 00:08:06.019 --> 00:08:08.100 from their newly acquired naval bases in the 00:08:08.100 --> 00:08:11.480 Philippines, and they see the holy grail of markets, 00:08:12.160 --> 00:08:14.480 China. Hundreds of millions of potential consumers. 00:08:14.839 --> 00:08:17.579 Exactly. But when they look closer, they realize 00:08:17.579 --> 00:08:21.139 that France, Germany, Britain, Russia and Japan 00:08:21.139 --> 00:08:24.079 are already erecting those walled gardens. This 00:08:24.079 --> 00:08:26.040 completely refrains the narrative of American 00:08:26.040 --> 00:08:28.579 benevolence. Like the primary driver wasn't some 00:08:28.579 --> 00:08:30.800 moral crusade against imperialism. Not at all. 00:08:31.000 --> 00:08:32.899 The source makes it clear that American policy 00:08:32.899 --> 00:08:35.740 was driven by deep existential economic panic. 00:08:36.159 --> 00:08:38.720 If China is fully partitioned into these exclusive 00:08:38.720 --> 00:08:41.240 European and Japanese spheres, American goods 00:08:41.240 --> 00:08:43.919 will be permanently locked out. Right. They will 00:08:43.919 --> 00:08:46.879 face discriminatory tariffs at every single port 00:08:46.879 --> 00:08:49.980 and exorbitant freight rates on every railroad. 00:08:50.500 --> 00:08:52.440 United States was the latecomer to the Imperial 00:08:52.440 --> 00:08:55.350 banquet. Yeah. And unlike Britain or Russia, 00:08:55.769 --> 00:08:58.429 the U .S. did not have the established military 00:08:58.429 --> 00:09:01.769 presence or the domestic political will to send 00:09:01.769 --> 00:09:04.450 hundreds of thousands of troops to mainland China. 00:09:04.809 --> 00:09:07.070 To conquer their own geographic slice of the 00:09:07.070 --> 00:09:08.990 melon, so to speak. Right. They couldn't win 00:09:08.990 --> 00:09:11.750 a territorial scramble, so they needed to completely 00:09:11.750 --> 00:09:14.289 change the rules of the game. And this is where 00:09:14.289 --> 00:09:16.269 William Woodville Rockhill enters the picture. 00:09:16.350 --> 00:09:18.950 Our main architect. Yes. The source notes that 00:09:18.950 --> 00:09:21.669 he is the primary architect of what becomes the 00:09:21.669 --> 00:09:25.139 open door policy. He realizes that if you don't 00:09:25.139 --> 00:09:27.320 have the leverage to build your own walled garden, 00:09:27.980 --> 00:09:30.759 your only option is to demand that everyone tear 00:09:30.759 --> 00:09:33.000 their walls down. Rock Hill was a fascinating 00:09:33.000 --> 00:09:35.460 figure, right? He really was. A diplomat, an 00:09:35.460 --> 00:09:38.220 explorer, a man who deeply studied Asian cultures. 00:09:38.799 --> 00:09:41.799 But his policy formulation was purely pragmatic. 00:09:42.019 --> 00:09:45.220 Just doing the math. Exactly. He needed a diplomatic 00:09:45.220 --> 00:09:47.860 maneuver that would level the economic playing 00:09:47.860 --> 00:09:50.820 field without requiring the U .S. to take on 00:09:50.820 --> 00:09:53.980 the immense ruinous cost of administering a Chinese 00:09:53.980 --> 00:09:56.299 colony. Which brings up a great visual from the 00:09:56.299 --> 00:09:58.840 text. The source mentions a political cartoon 00:09:58.840 --> 00:10:02.080 from 1899 that perfectly captures the American 00:10:02.080 --> 00:10:04.259 self -image during this crisis. Oh, I love this 00:10:04.259 --> 00:10:06.559 cartoon. Describe it. So in the center you have 00:10:06.559 --> 00:10:09.259 Uncle Sam, obviously representing the U .S., 00:10:09.259 --> 00:10:12.340 demanding open door access to trade. And he is 00:10:12.340 --> 00:10:14.399 surrounded by the heavyweights of global empire. 00:10:14.620 --> 00:10:16.820 All the big players. Right. Kaiser Wilhelm II 00:10:16.820 --> 00:10:20.679 of Germany, King Umberto I of Italy, John Bull 00:10:20.679 --> 00:10:23.259 representing Britain, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia, 00:10:23.720 --> 00:10:26.820 President Emile Lube of France, and Emperor Franz 00:10:26.820 --> 00:10:29.500 Joseph I of Austria. And what are all those European 00:10:29.500 --> 00:10:31.740 monarchs doing in the illustration? They are 00:10:31.740 --> 00:10:34.860 literally holding knives and scissors, hovering 00:10:34.860 --> 00:10:37.799 over a map of China, actively plotting how to 00:10:37.799 --> 00:10:40.690 cut it to pieces. Wow. And Uncle Sam is just 00:10:40.690 --> 00:10:43.250 standing there, rejecting their violence, asking 00:10:43.250 --> 00:10:45.830 for what the caption calls, a fair field and 00:10:45.830 --> 00:10:48.769 no favor. The framing of that image is just a 00:10:48.769 --> 00:10:51.309 brilliant piece of historical propaganda. Isn't 00:10:51.309 --> 00:10:54.669 it? It positions the United States as the rational, 00:10:55.129 --> 00:10:58.450 peaceful, enlightened actor surrounded by these 00:10:58.450 --> 00:11:01.570 greedy, aggressive autocrats. The US is just 00:11:01.570 --> 00:11:03.690 asking for a fair shot, guys. Yeah, it's a fair 00:11:03.690 --> 00:11:06.210 shot. But if we look at the actual mechanics 00:11:06.210 --> 00:11:08.909 of Rock Hill strategy, Uncle Sam wasn't asking 00:11:08.909 --> 00:11:11.350 for a fair field out of some deep commitment 00:11:11.350 --> 00:11:14.870 to global equality. Nope. He was demanding a 00:11:14.870 --> 00:11:16.970 fair field because it was a game the United States 00:11:16.970 --> 00:11:19.799 was mathematically guaranteed to win. Let's break 00:11:19.799 --> 00:11:21.740 down that analogy because the idea of a fair 00:11:21.740 --> 00:11:24.940 field is incredibly deceptive. Very much so. 00:11:25.019 --> 00:11:27.559 It's like a massive tech conglomerate demanding 00:11:27.559 --> 00:11:30.860 that a new digital market run entirely on open 00:11:30.860 --> 00:11:32.639 source software standards. That's a great way 00:11:32.639 --> 00:11:34.860 to look at it. Right. They preach about the democratization 00:11:34.860 --> 00:11:37.539 of technology and fairness to developers. But 00:11:37.539 --> 00:11:39.980 the hidden reality is that this conglomerate 00:11:39.980 --> 00:11:43.220 already controls 90 percent of the physical hardware 00:11:43.220 --> 00:11:45.440 and the server infrastructure. They own the pipes. 00:11:45.710 --> 00:11:48.570 Exactly. They know that if the software market 00:11:48.570 --> 00:11:52.070 is entirely open and unregulated, their massive 00:11:52.070 --> 00:11:54.629 scale and efficiency will simply choke out all 00:11:54.629 --> 00:11:56.909 the smaller competitors organically. They don't 00:11:56.909 --> 00:11:58.990 need a legal monopoly on the software because 00:11:58.990 --> 00:12:01.490 their underlying economic dominance ensures they 00:12:01.490 --> 00:12:04.110 win anyway. That is exactly what the U .S. was 00:12:04.110 --> 00:12:06.429 doing. American factories were the most efficient 00:12:06.429 --> 00:12:09.490 in the world. American agricultural output was 00:12:09.490 --> 00:12:11.889 massive. John Hay and William Rockhill knew that 00:12:11.889 --> 00:12:15.169 in a truly open, frictionless market where tariffs 00:12:15.169 --> 00:12:17.629 and transport costs were exactly the same for 00:12:17.629 --> 00:12:20.549 everyone, American goods could undercut British, 00:12:20.710 --> 00:12:23.669 Russian or German goods on price and quality 00:12:23.669 --> 00:12:26.370 every single time. They wanted to conquer China 00:12:26.370 --> 00:12:29.129 economically, but they wanted the European empires 00:12:29.129 --> 00:12:31.370 to subsidize all the infrastructure. It's pretty 00:12:31.370 --> 00:12:34.330 genius, honestly. Which brings us to September 00:12:34.330 --> 00:12:38.090 6, 1899. Secretary of State John Hay takes Rock 00:12:38.090 --> 00:12:40.149 Hill's framework and puts it into action. He 00:12:40.149 --> 00:12:42.230 circulates the first open door note. He does. 00:12:42.269 --> 00:12:44.789 He sends it to the major powers. And let's look 00:12:44.789 --> 00:12:47.169 closely at the actual demands inside this note 00:12:47.169 --> 00:12:50.110 because they are incredibly specific about the 00:12:50.110 --> 00:12:52.610 financial mechanics of trade. Yeah, Hay wasn't 00:12:52.610 --> 00:12:55.269 just asking for good vibes in free trade. He 00:12:55.269 --> 00:12:59.110 laid out three explicit tenets. First, he demanded 00:12:59.110 --> 00:13:01.330 that no power would interfere with any treaty 00:13:01.330 --> 00:13:04.509 port or any vested interest within its own so 00:13:04.509 --> 00:13:06.590 -called sphere of influence. Which is interesting, 00:13:06.710 --> 00:13:08.389 right? Because this meant he was acknowledging 00:13:08.389 --> 00:13:10.850 that the spheres actually existed. He just demanded 00:13:10.850 --> 00:13:13.269 that the doors to the ports remain unlocked for 00:13:13.269 --> 00:13:16.210 everyone. A huge concession, but a practical 00:13:16.210 --> 00:13:18.769 one. And the second tenant gets right into the 00:13:18.769 --> 00:13:21.870 weeds of taxation. He called upon the powers 00:13:21.870 --> 00:13:24.309 to permit the Chinese government to continue 00:13:24.309 --> 00:13:27.409 collecting tariffs. on an equal basis across 00:13:27.409 --> 00:13:29.769 all spheres. This was crucial because of how 00:13:29.769 --> 00:13:32.210 the Chinese tariff system worked, particularly 00:13:32.210 --> 00:13:34.769 the internal transit tax known as the Likin, 00:13:34.990 --> 00:13:37.889 L -I -K -I -N. Right. If foreign empires took 00:13:37.889 --> 00:13:40.090 over the custom houses and started charging different 00:13:40.090 --> 00:13:42.350 tariff rates to different nations, the U .S. 00:13:42.429 --> 00:13:44.970 would be completely frozen out. By insisting 00:13:44.970 --> 00:13:46.730 that Chinese authorities collect the tariffs 00:13:46.730 --> 00:13:49.429 equally from everyone, Hay was trying to prevent 00:13:49.429 --> 00:13:52.070 the European powers from weaponizing taxes against 00:13:52.070 --> 00:13:55.320 American merchants. And the third demand. No 00:13:55.320 --> 00:13:58.700 power could show favors to its own citizens regarding 00:13:58.700 --> 00:14:02.059 harbor dues or railroad charges. If a Russian 00:14:02.059 --> 00:14:05.179 company builds a railroad through Manchuria They 00:14:05.179 --> 00:14:07.980 cannot charge an American textile company twice 00:14:07.980 --> 00:14:10.220 the freight rate that they charge a Russian textile 00:14:10.220 --> 00:14:12.120 company. Because if you control the railroads 00:14:12.120 --> 00:14:14.600 and the ports, you control the economy. Hay was 00:14:14.600 --> 00:14:17.059 trying to strip away the primary economic advantages 00:14:17.059 --> 00:14:18.899 of having a sphere of influence in the first 00:14:18.899 --> 00:14:21.480 place. While still forcing those empires to bear 00:14:21.480 --> 00:14:23.779 the cost of policing and maintaining those regions. 00:14:24.039 --> 00:14:26.519 The audacity is just staggering. And historians 00:14:26.519 --> 00:14:28.519 have a specific term for this strategy, don't 00:14:28.519 --> 00:14:31.129 they? They do. The source references William 00:14:31.129 --> 00:14:33.590 Appleman Williams, who was a highly influential 00:14:33.590 --> 00:14:36.750 diplomatic historian. He defined this dynamic, 00:14:36.950 --> 00:14:39.769 this reliance on overwhelming economic dominance 00:14:39.769 --> 00:14:42.970 rather than territorial conquest as informal 00:14:42.970 --> 00:14:46.429 empire or free trade imperialism. Informal empire. 00:14:46.929 --> 00:14:48.769 Williams argued that the open door policy was 00:14:48.769 --> 00:14:51.110 not a rejection of empire at all. It was simply 00:14:51.110 --> 00:14:54.250 a more highly evolved, cost effective form of 00:14:54.250 --> 00:14:56.889 empire. The United States was still seeking to 00:14:56.889 --> 00:15:00.250 extract wealth, control resources and dictate 00:15:00.250 --> 00:15:02.210 the terms of trade in a foreign nation. They 00:15:02.210 --> 00:15:05.049 just wanted to do it without the messy, expensive 00:15:05.049 --> 00:15:07.929 business of formally planting a flag and managing 00:15:07.929 --> 00:15:10.830 a restless colonial population. But the psychological 00:15:10.830 --> 00:15:12.799 dissonance here is fascinating. The American 00:15:12.799 --> 00:15:15.860 public and the diplomats themselves, they didn't 00:15:15.860 --> 00:15:17.639 see it as imperialism. No, they thought they 00:15:17.639 --> 00:15:19.860 were the good guys. The source quotes historian 00:15:19.860 --> 00:15:22.240 Michael Hunt, who describes how the open door 00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:25.399 policy fostered a deep popular sympathy for China 00:15:25.399 --> 00:15:28.080 in the US, but it was rooted in a paternalistic 00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:30.830 vision. It was a very specific type of Protestant 00:15:30.830 --> 00:15:34.009 American exceptionalism. They defined the global 00:15:34.009 --> 00:15:37.769 situation as a stark moral binary. On one side, 00:15:37.769 --> 00:15:40.230 you had the selfish imperialism of the old world, 00:15:40.669 --> 00:15:44.210 Britain, Russia, France, Japan. The bad guys 00:15:44.210 --> 00:15:46.309 with the knives. Right. And on the other side, 00:15:46.350 --> 00:15:48.889 you had the supposedly benevolent progressive 00:15:48.889 --> 00:15:51.570 modernizing influence of the United States. They 00:15:51.570 --> 00:15:53.330 convinced themselves they were the protectors 00:15:53.330 --> 00:15:56.639 of Chinese sovereignty. Over the next few decades, 00:15:57.419 --> 00:15:59.779 American diplomats, missionaries, and businessmen 00:15:59.779 --> 00:16:02.500 flocked to China, genuinely believing they were 00:16:02.500 --> 00:16:05.340 going to guide China toward a democratic, capitalist, 00:16:05.960 --> 00:16:09.240 American -style future. It was a potent, dangerous 00:16:09.240 --> 00:16:11.980 mix of ruthless economic self -interest wrapped 00:16:11.980 --> 00:16:15.059 tightly in a blanket of absolute moral superiority. 00:16:15.419 --> 00:16:17.679 But writing a brilliant set of rules that guarantees 00:16:17.679 --> 00:16:20.710 your own victory is only step one. Barely step 00:16:20.710 --> 00:16:23.769 one. Step two is getting rival empires, empires 00:16:23.769 --> 00:16:26.110 that have spent vast fortunes and shed actual 00:16:26.110 --> 00:16:28.669 blood to secure their exclusive walled gardens 00:16:28.669 --> 00:16:31.509 to actually agree to play by your rules. Which 00:16:31.509 --> 00:16:33.990 is a tough sell. When John Hayes sent those notes 00:16:33.990 --> 00:16:36.470 to London, Paris, Berlin, St. Petersburg and 00:16:36.470 --> 00:16:38.830 Tokyo, I mean, what was the incentive for any 00:16:38.830 --> 00:16:41.330 of them to agree? There was zero incentive. And 00:16:41.330 --> 00:16:44.110 the aftermath of the 1899 notes is a master class 00:16:44.110 --> 00:16:46.809 in diplomatic evasion. The source is very clear. 00:16:47.110 --> 00:16:49.570 The policy was received with extreme skepticism. 00:16:49.789 --> 00:16:51.830 None of the major powers wanted to surrender 00:16:51.830 --> 00:16:54.370 their monopolies. The diplomatic responses to 00:16:54.370 --> 00:16:56.809 Hay's note were beautifully crafted pieces of 00:16:56.809 --> 00:16:59.669 non -committal fiction. Take the British response, 00:16:59.929 --> 00:17:02.169 for example. Lord Salisbury, the British prime 00:17:02.169 --> 00:17:04.349 minister, essentially expressed general sympathy 00:17:04.349 --> 00:17:06.990 for the idea of free trade. Sounds nice on paper. 00:17:07.210 --> 00:17:10.190 But he firmly excluded the specific territory 00:17:10.190 --> 00:17:13.710 of Kahlun from any agreement. Convenient. And 00:17:13.710 --> 00:17:16.990 the Russians. The Russian response was a masterpiece 00:17:16.990 --> 00:17:19.980 of polite refusal. They claimed they would happily 00:17:19.980 --> 00:17:22.140 open their ports, provided everyone else did, 00:17:22.599 --> 00:17:25.299 but explicitly refused to make any commitments 00:17:25.299 --> 00:17:27.859 regarding equal railroad tariffs. Which was the 00:17:27.859 --> 00:17:30.279 entire point of their expansion into Manchuria. 00:17:30.859 --> 00:17:33.380 Exactly. So their tactic was a coordinated passive 00:17:33.380 --> 00:17:36.019 -aggressive stall. Every nation took the position 00:17:36.019 --> 00:17:38.400 that they absolutely loved the idea of the open 00:17:38.400 --> 00:17:41.279 door. But alas, they simply could not commit 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:43.720 to it unless every single other nation committed 00:17:43.720 --> 00:17:47.099 to it first. It was a deliberate diplomatic stalemate. 00:17:47.420 --> 00:17:50.119 Russia points at Japan. Japan points at Germany. 00:17:50.500 --> 00:17:52.740 Germany points at Britain. It's a polite way 00:17:52.740 --> 00:17:54.859 of telling the United States to take a hike. 00:17:55.299 --> 00:17:57.579 And this is where John Hay executes one of the 00:17:57.579 --> 00:18:00.740 most remarkable brazen bluffs in diplomatic history. 00:18:01.480 --> 00:18:04.559 Faced with a stack of polite rejections and evasions, 00:18:05.059 --> 00:18:08.240 he realizes the entire policy is dead on arrival 00:18:08.240 --> 00:18:10.839 if he accepts their terms. So he just doesn't. 00:18:10.940 --> 00:18:13.079 He just ignores the reality of the situation. 00:18:13.339 --> 00:18:17.319 According to the text, in July 1900, Hay simply 00:18:17.319 --> 00:18:19.640 steps up to the global microphone and announces 00:18:19.640 --> 00:18:22.099 that every single one of the powers had granted 00:18:22.099 --> 00:18:24.960 their consent in principle. He literally takes 00:18:24.960 --> 00:18:27.599 their non -committal stalling tactics, twists 00:18:27.599 --> 00:18:30.579 the wording, and publicly declares that a unanimous 00:18:30.579 --> 00:18:33.200 binding agreement has been reached. He forces 00:18:33.200 --> 00:18:35.920 their hand. By announcing it publicly, he put 00:18:35.920 --> 00:18:38.059 the European powers in a deeply uncomfortable 00:18:38.059 --> 00:18:40.319 position. Right. Because to refute, hey, they 00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:42.460 would have to publicly announce, no, we actually 00:18:42.460 --> 00:18:45.519 do intend to violently partition China and monopolize 00:18:45.519 --> 00:18:48.779 all trade. Which is terrible PR. Exactly. None 00:18:48.779 --> 00:18:50.660 of them wanted the terrible public relations 00:18:50.660 --> 00:18:53.019 of being the sole empire to formally declare 00:18:53.019 --> 00:18:55.059 their greedy intentions, especially when they 00:18:55.059 --> 00:18:56.980 were all terrified of each other's ambitions. 00:18:57.079 --> 00:19:00.200 So they stayed quiet. And in diplomacy, silence 00:19:00.200 --> 00:19:03.579 can sometimes be weaponized as consent. It absolutely 00:19:03.579 --> 00:19:07.160 can. But the timing of this July 1900 bluff is 00:19:07.160 --> 00:19:09.720 the critical piece of the puzzle. Hey wasn't 00:19:09.720 --> 00:19:12.319 just being impatient. The text provides the vital 00:19:12.319 --> 00:19:15.880 context. July 1900 is the exact moment the Boxer 00:19:15.880 --> 00:19:18.420 Rebellion is peaking in China. Yes, we have to 00:19:18.420 --> 00:19:20.440 dive into what was happening on the ground because 00:19:20.440 --> 00:19:23.359 it changes the entire meaning of Hey's actions. 00:19:23.609 --> 00:19:26.950 The Boxer Rebellion was a massive, visceral, 00:19:27.049 --> 00:19:30.430 and incredibly violent uprising by Chinese secret 00:19:30.430 --> 00:19:33.450 societies known as the Righteous and Harmonious 00:19:33.450 --> 00:19:36.619 Fists or Boxers to the West. This wasn't a random 00:19:36.619 --> 00:19:39.000 riot. It was a direct, desperate response to 00:19:39.000 --> 00:19:41.019 the exact imperialism we've been discussing. 00:19:41.759 --> 00:19:44.019 The Boxers were reacting to a devastating drought, 00:19:44.059 --> 00:19:46.160 but also to the fact that foreign railways were 00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:48.559 destroying local transport jobs. People were 00:19:48.559 --> 00:19:50.720 starving. Right. And foreign missionaries were 00:19:50.720 --> 00:19:53.059 aggressively undermining local culture and legal 00:19:53.059 --> 00:19:55.240 systems. They were watching their society be 00:19:55.240 --> 00:19:57.880 dismantled by the walled gardens. And their response 00:19:57.880 --> 00:20:00.960 was to try and violently expel all foreign influence 00:20:00.960 --> 00:20:03.539 from China. They besieged the foreign legation 00:20:03.539 --> 00:20:05.740 quarter in Beijing. The diplomats from all these 00:20:05.740 --> 00:20:07.819 rival empires were suddenly trapped together 00:20:07.819 --> 00:20:10.079 behind barricades, literally fighting for their 00:20:10.079 --> 00:20:12.960 lives. This created an unprecedented international 00:20:12.960 --> 00:20:16.099 crisis. To rescue their diplomats and crush the 00:20:16.099 --> 00:20:18.900 rebellion, the rival empires formed the Eight 00:20:18.900 --> 00:20:22.019 Nation Alliance. You suddenly had American, British, 00:20:22.220 --> 00:20:25.599 Russian, German, French, Japanese, Italian, and 00:20:25.599 --> 00:20:28.400 Austro -Hungarian troops operating as a joint 00:20:28.400 --> 00:20:31.440 military force marching on Beijing. And this 00:20:31.440 --> 00:20:34.460 military intervention terrified John Hay. Why? 00:20:34.670 --> 00:20:37.730 because he knew how empires operated. He knew 00:20:37.730 --> 00:20:39.910 that once you give a Russian or German general 00:20:39.910 --> 00:20:42.930 an excuse to march 50 ,000 troops into a Chinese 00:20:42.930 --> 00:20:45.549 province to restore order, those troops are never 00:20:45.549 --> 00:20:48.369 ever going to leave. Exactly. He realized that 00:20:48.369 --> 00:20:50.710 the joint military suppression of the Boxers 00:20:50.710 --> 00:20:53.250 was the perfect pretext for the European powers 00:20:53.250 --> 00:20:56.230 to finally drop the charade, formally partition 00:20:56.230 --> 00:20:59.410 China, annex the territories they occupied, and 00:20:59.410 --> 00:21:01.930 slam the door shut on American trade permanently. 00:21:02.369 --> 00:21:04.799 So as the troops are actively marching on Beijing, 00:21:05.119 --> 00:21:07.460 He frantically circulates a second open door 00:21:07.460 --> 00:21:09.059 note. And this one goes further than the first. 00:21:09.099 --> 00:21:11.619 Much further. He doesn't just ask for equal trade. 00:21:12.319 --> 00:21:15.119 He explicitly demands that the powers preserve 00:21:15.119 --> 00:21:17.359 Chinese territorial and administrative entity. 00:21:17.740 --> 00:21:20.500 He is desperately trying to rhetorically lock 00:21:20.500 --> 00:21:23.039 them into respecting China's borders before the 00:21:23.039 --> 00:21:25.819 shooting stops and the land grab begins. So that 00:21:25.819 --> 00:21:28.400 July 1900 announcement, the great bluff that 00:21:28.400 --> 00:21:31.160 everyone had agreed, was Hey trying to construct 00:21:31.160 --> 00:21:34.299 a flimsy diplomatic cage to restrain the empires 00:21:34.299 --> 00:21:36.660 while their armies were actively operating inside 00:21:36.660 --> 00:21:39.400 China. And the cynicism of the European powers 00:21:39.400 --> 00:21:42.890 during this exact moment is breathtaking. The 00:21:42.890 --> 00:21:45.329 source highlights the Yangtze agreement signed 00:21:45.329 --> 00:21:48.369 on October 6, 1900 between Britain and Germany. 00:21:48.789 --> 00:21:50.670 On the surface, the Yangtze agreement looks like 00:21:50.670 --> 00:21:53.329 a massive victory for John Hay. Britain and Germany 00:21:53.329 --> 00:21:55.509 officially agreed to oppose the partition of 00:21:55.509 --> 00:21:58.190 China into spheres of influence. They publicly 00:21:58.190 --> 00:22:00.269 endorsed the concept of keeping the Chinese market 00:22:00.269 --> 00:22:02.869 open. But the source reveals the actual mechanism 00:22:02.869 --> 00:22:05.210 driving German support. It had nothing to do 00:22:05.210 --> 00:22:06.890 with respecting Chinese sovereignty. Of course 00:22:06.890 --> 00:22:09.920 not. Germany supported keeping China whole because 00:22:09.920 --> 00:22:11.980 their own sphere of influence was relatively 00:22:11.980 --> 00:22:14.799 small. They realized that if China was fully 00:22:14.799 --> 00:22:17.640 partitioned, Germany would be legally restricted 00:22:17.640 --> 00:22:20.319 to selling goods only within their small slice. 00:22:20.519 --> 00:22:23.579 But if the door remained open, the powerful German 00:22:23.579 --> 00:22:26.099 industrial machine could sell goods to the entirety 00:22:26.099 --> 00:22:29.079 of China. It was pure calculated self -interest. 00:22:29.500 --> 00:22:31.779 They were endorsing the open door only because 00:22:31.779 --> 00:22:33.799 they believed they could exploit the whole market 00:22:33.799 --> 00:22:36.019 better than they could exploit a fraction of 00:22:36.019 --> 00:22:38.839 it. Every nation was simply running the math 00:22:38.839 --> 00:22:41.099 on how to maximize their own extraction of wealth. 00:22:41.200 --> 00:22:44.339 Which exposes the fatal structural flaw of the 00:22:44.339 --> 00:22:46.920 entire open door policy. It was a heist of cards 00:22:46.920 --> 00:22:49.960 built on bluffs, gentleman's agreements and temporary 00:22:49.799 --> 00:22:53.579 alignments of self -interest. The source is explicit. 00:22:54.380 --> 00:22:57.440 The policy was never formally adopted via binding 00:22:57.440 --> 00:23:00.440 international treaty. It possessed absolutely 00:23:00.440 --> 00:23:04.079 zero legal standing and most importantly There 00:23:04.079 --> 00:23:06.799 was no enforcement mechanism. If Russia decided 00:23:06.799 --> 00:23:08.579 to break the rules, who was going to stop them? 00:23:08.859 --> 00:23:10.599 The United States certainly wasn't going to declare 00:23:10.599 --> 00:23:13.180 war on Russia over railroad tariffs in Manchuria. 00:23:13.519 --> 00:23:15.839 Right. It was a doctrine that relied entirely 00:23:15.839 --> 00:23:19.599 on voluntary compliance from nations whose core 00:23:19.599 --> 00:23:22.220 foreign policy was based on aggressive expansion. 00:23:22.539 --> 00:23:25.559 And because there was no enforcement, the empires 00:23:25.559 --> 00:23:27.799 almost immediately began testing the boundaries, 00:23:28.200 --> 00:23:30.500 searching for cracks in the door. This initiates 00:23:30.500 --> 00:23:33.500 a half century of continuous brutal conflict 00:23:33.500 --> 00:23:36.680 that the open door policy completely failed to 00:23:36.680 --> 00:23:38.700 prevent. So let's track how quickly the policy 00:23:38.700 --> 00:23:41.700 eroded. Following the Boxer Rebellion, Russian 00:23:41.700 --> 00:23:44.220 troops had occupied Manchuria to protect their 00:23:44.220 --> 00:23:46.779 railway interests. When the rebellion ended, 00:23:46.980 --> 00:23:48.859 they simply refused to leave. Just stayed right 00:23:48.859 --> 00:23:51.880 there. By 1902, the U .S. government is forced 00:23:51.880 --> 00:23:54.980 to formally protest this Russian incursion, citing 00:23:54.980 --> 00:23:57.220 a violation of the open door. Did the Russians 00:23:57.220 --> 00:23:59.680 apologize and withdraw because John Hayes sent 00:23:59.680 --> 00:24:01.940 them a sternly worded letter? I'm gonna guess 00:24:01.940 --> 00:24:04.970 no. Of course not. They ignored Washington. It 00:24:04.970 --> 00:24:07.589 took a catastrophic mechanized conflict, the 00:24:07.589 --> 00:24:11.390 Russo -Japanese War of 1904 to 1905, to finally 00:24:11.390 --> 00:24:13.970 dislodge Russia from southern Manchuria. Japan 00:24:13.970 --> 00:24:16.210 launched a surprise attack on the Russian fleet 00:24:16.210 --> 00:24:18.970 at Port Arthur, leading to a brutal war that 00:24:18.970 --> 00:24:22.349 shocked the world when an Asian nation decisively 00:24:22.349 --> 00:24:24.849 defeated a European empire. And what was the 00:24:24.849 --> 00:24:27.299 American response to this war? President Theodore 00:24:27.299 --> 00:24:29.880 Roosevelt actually mediates the peace treaty, 00:24:30.000 --> 00:24:32.539 the Treaty of Portsmouth. The U .S. and Japan 00:24:32.539 --> 00:24:35.440 boldly pledge to maintain equality in Manchuria. 00:24:35.880 --> 00:24:38.279 But the reality is that Japan just swapped places 00:24:38.279 --> 00:24:41.339 with Russia. Japan now control the South Manchuria 00:24:41.339 --> 00:24:43.880 Railway and the dominant sphere of influence. 00:24:44.259 --> 00:24:46.920 And Japan immediately began aggressively expanding 00:24:46.920 --> 00:24:49.839 that sphere. The text notes that between 1905 00:24:49.839 --> 00:24:52.579 and 1907, Japan made overtures to enlarge its 00:24:52.579 --> 00:24:54.859 influence to include the Chinese province of 00:24:54.859 --> 00:24:57.750 Fujian. They were actively testing how far they 00:24:57.750 --> 00:24:59.849 could push the open door without triggering a 00:24:59.849 --> 00:25:01.930 military response from the West. And the major 00:25:01.930 --> 00:25:04.670 powers realized that outright territorial annexation 00:25:04.670 --> 00:25:07.329 was too provocative. So they shifted their tactics 00:25:07.329 --> 00:25:10.069 to weaponized finance. The source details how 00:25:10.069 --> 00:25:12.569 empires began using loans and banking consortiums 00:25:12.569 --> 00:25:15.630 as tools of conquest. This is a critical mechanism 00:25:15.630 --> 00:25:18.789 of informal empire. If Japan wants to expand 00:25:18.789 --> 00:25:21.150 its railway network in Manchuria to solidify 00:25:21.150 --> 00:25:23.990 its control, it needs massive amounts of capital. 00:25:24.250 --> 00:25:26.930 So they go to Paris to secure loans. Paris had 00:25:26.930 --> 00:25:29.470 the money. Right. The French government agrees 00:25:29.470 --> 00:25:31.809 to provide the capital, but only on the strict 00:25:31.809 --> 00:25:33.990 condition that Japan respects the open -door 00:25:33.990 --> 00:25:36.970 principles and doesn't explicitly violate China's 00:25:36.970 --> 00:25:39.309 territorial integrity. It's a game of high -stakes 00:25:39.309 --> 00:25:42.390 financial leverage. The European powers are using 00:25:42.390 --> 00:25:46.039 debt to leash Japan. And the United States jumps 00:25:46.039 --> 00:25:48.980 into this financial warfare, too. The text mentions 00:25:48.980 --> 00:25:51.740 the formation of an international banking consortium 00:25:51.740 --> 00:25:54.640 in 1909. This was driven by President William 00:25:54.640 --> 00:25:57.680 Howard's tax policy, often called dollar diplomacy. 00:25:58.329 --> 00:26:00.769 Taft believed he could force the open door to 00:26:00.769 --> 00:26:03.309 stay open by aggressively injecting American 00:26:03.309 --> 00:26:05.829 capital into China. The U .S. demanded entry 00:26:05.829 --> 00:26:08.009 into a consortium of British, French and German 00:26:08.009 --> 00:26:10.069 banks that were financing the Hukong Railway 00:26:10.069 --> 00:26:13.250 in China. The logic was, if American banks own 00:26:13.250 --> 00:26:15.630 a share of the debt, American diplomats have 00:26:15.630 --> 00:26:18.049 a seat at the table to ensure the railroads don't 00:26:18.049 --> 00:26:20.470 discriminate against American trade. But eventually, 00:26:20.950 --> 00:26:23.829 the sheer pressure of global geopolitics shatters 00:26:23.829 --> 00:26:26.420 the illusion entirely. Even the United States, 00:26:26.619 --> 00:26:29.279 the architect of the policy, is forced to compromise 00:26:29.279 --> 00:26:33.140 its own supposedly sacred doctrine. This brings 00:26:33.140 --> 00:26:35.599 us to a shocking diplomatic pivot mentioned in 00:26:35.599 --> 00:26:39.319 the text, the 1917 Lansing -Ishi Agreement. The 00:26:39.319 --> 00:26:42.059 Lansing -Ishi Agreement is one of the most glaring 00:26:42.059 --> 00:26:44.099 contradictions in American diplomatic history. 00:26:44.660 --> 00:26:47.140 For nearly two decades, the U .S. has protested 00:26:47.140 --> 00:26:49.559 every time another nation tried to assert exclusive 00:26:49.559 --> 00:26:53.309 control in China. But in 1917, U .S. Secretary 00:26:53.309 --> 00:26:56.190 of State Robert Lansing and Japanese envoy Ishii 00:26:56.190 --> 00:26:58.849 Kikujirō exchange a series of notes. They offer 00:26:58.849 --> 00:27:01.750 the standard hollow reassurances that the open 00:27:01.750 --> 00:27:05.289 -door policy will be respected. But then, explicitly, 00:27:05.509 --> 00:27:07.430 the United States formally recognizes that Japan 00:27:07.430 --> 00:27:09.269 has special interests in China. Wait, how is 00:27:09.269 --> 00:27:11.630 that possible? Right. The United States officially 00:27:11.630 --> 00:27:13.549 acknowledging another nation's special interests 00:27:13.549 --> 00:27:15.990 is the exact opposite of a fair field and no 00:27:15.990 --> 00:27:18.519 favor. It completely validates the concept of 00:27:18.519 --> 00:27:21.039 a sphere of influence. Why would the U .S. voluntarily 00:27:21.039 --> 00:27:24.400 sabotage its own core policy? Because in 1917, 00:27:24.940 --> 00:27:27.420 the United States was facing a far more immediate 00:27:27.420 --> 00:27:30.359 existential threat than trade tariffs in Manchuria. 00:27:30.759 --> 00:27:32.880 They were entering World War I. Oh, of course. 00:27:33.180 --> 00:27:35.200 The Atlantic was swarming with German U -boats 00:27:35.200 --> 00:27:37.339 and the U .S. was mobilizing to fight in the 00:27:37.339 --> 00:27:40.079 mud of Europe. They desperately needed Japan 00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:42.700 as an ally to secure the Pacific Theater and 00:27:42.700 --> 00:27:45.480 protect sea lanes. The U .S. simply did not have 00:27:45.480 --> 00:27:48.119 the military bandwidth or the political capital 00:27:48.119 --> 00:27:51.119 to simultaneously fight a war in Europe and police 00:27:51.119 --> 00:27:55.720 Japanese expansion in Asia. unadulterated pragmatism. 00:27:55.960 --> 00:27:58.099 They threw China under the bus to secure their 00:27:58.099 --> 00:28:01.220 flank in World War I. They effectively gave Japan 00:28:01.220 --> 00:28:03.599 a diplomatic hall pass to expand their influence, 00:28:04.180 --> 00:28:06.259 provided Japan didn't actively attack American 00:28:06.259 --> 00:28:08.660 assets. And the betrayal of Chinese sovereignty 00:28:08.660 --> 00:28:11.140 goes much deeper than the Lansing issue notes. 00:28:11.460 --> 00:28:13.140 While the U .S. is trying to verbally manage 00:28:13.140 --> 00:28:15.799 the situation, the text details a series of secret 00:28:15.799 --> 00:28:19.079 treaties signed in 1917 among the allied Triple 00:28:19.079 --> 00:28:21.740 Entente, Britain, France and Russia. What were 00:28:21.740 --> 00:28:24.230 they secretly agreeing to? As an incentive to 00:28:24.230 --> 00:28:27.069 keep Japan fully engaged in the war effort against 00:28:27.069 --> 00:28:29.950 Germany, Britain, France and Russia, secretly 00:28:29.950 --> 00:28:32.829 promised Tokyo that when the war ended, Japan 00:28:32.829 --> 00:28:34.970 could permanently take over all of the colonial 00:28:34.970 --> 00:28:37.410 possessions and concessions that Germany held 00:28:37.410 --> 00:28:40.150 in China, particularly the Shandong province. 00:28:40.309 --> 00:28:42.430 They were literally carving up Chinese territory 00:28:42.430 --> 00:28:45.329 behind closed doors and offering it as a prize 00:28:45.329 --> 00:28:47.869 for fighting in a European war. The open door 00:28:47.869 --> 00:28:50.250 policy was just a piece of paper. This was the 00:28:50.250 --> 00:28:53.829 raw, brutal exercise of imperial power. And when 00:28:53.829 --> 00:28:56.769 World War I ends, the illusion of the open door 00:28:56.769 --> 00:28:59.329 is permanently destroyed. At the Paris Peace 00:28:59.329 --> 00:29:01.809 Conference in 1919, which produced the Treaty 00:29:01.809 --> 00:29:04.109 of Versailles, the existence of those secret 00:29:04.109 --> 00:29:06.450 tweeties is revealed. Despite President Woodrow 00:29:06.450 --> 00:29:08.930 Wilson's lofty rhetoric about the self -determination 00:29:08.930 --> 00:29:11.690 of nations, the Western powers honor their secret 00:29:11.690 --> 00:29:15.029 deal. Japan has formally granted the German territories 00:29:15.029 --> 00:29:17.519 in China. We've spent a lot of time talking about 00:29:17.519 --> 00:29:20.440 the machinations in Washington, London, Paris, 00:29:20.599 --> 00:29:23.920 and Tokyo. But we have to ask, what happens when 00:29:23.920 --> 00:29:26.099 the people actually living inside this walled 00:29:26.099 --> 00:29:28.000 garden realize their country is being traded 00:29:28.000 --> 00:29:30.599 away on unenforced pieces of paper? This brings 00:29:30.599 --> 00:29:33.279 us to the Chinese perspective and the visceral, 00:29:33.480 --> 00:29:36.220 violent collapse of the historic open door era. 00:29:36.359 --> 00:29:38.519 The realization of the Versailles Treaty was 00:29:38.519 --> 00:29:41.519 a profound trauma for the Chinese public. China 00:29:41.519 --> 00:29:43.799 had actually entered World War I on the side 00:29:43.799 --> 00:29:45.859 of the Allies, sending hundreds of thousands 00:29:45.859 --> 00:29:48.720 of laborers to the Western Front precisely because 00:29:48.720 --> 00:29:50.519 they believed an Allied victory would allow them 00:29:50.519 --> 00:29:53.019 to reclaim those German territories. When the 00:29:53.019 --> 00:29:55.119 news reached Beijing that the Allies had given 00:29:55.119 --> 00:29:58.099 Chinese land to Japan instead, the reaction was 00:29:58.099 --> 00:30:00.609 explosive. The source notes, this sparked the 00:30:00.609 --> 00:30:03.690 May 4th movement in 1919. This wasn't just a 00:30:03.690 --> 00:30:05.930 minor diplomatic protest. This was a massive 00:30:05.930 --> 00:30:08.750 seismic cultural and political awakening. Over 00:30:08.750 --> 00:30:11.670 3 ,000 university students marched on Tiananmen 00:30:11.670 --> 00:30:14.880 Square in Beijing. They burned the house of a 00:30:14.880 --> 00:30:17.220 pro -Japanese minister. They beat up government 00:30:17.220 --> 00:30:20.099 officials. The May 4th movement was a total rejection 00:30:20.099 --> 00:30:22.680 of the Western betrayal. It ignited a fierce 00:30:22.680 --> 00:30:25.920 modern Chinese nationalism. It sparked nationwide 00:30:25.920 --> 00:30:28.980 boycotts of Japanese goods. And fundamentally, 00:30:29.480 --> 00:30:31.940 the profound disillusionment with Western democracies 00:30:31.940 --> 00:30:34.819 during this period directly contributed to the 00:30:34.819 --> 00:30:37.279 spread of Marxist ideas in China, leading to 00:30:37.279 --> 00:30:39.299 the founding of the Chinese Communist Party in 00:30:39.299 --> 00:30:42.369 1921. The diplomats in Washington and London 00:30:42.369 --> 00:30:44.589 kept trying to frantically revive the corpse 00:30:44.589 --> 00:30:46.769 of the open -door policy, ignoring the reality 00:30:46.769 --> 00:30:49.730 on the ground. The text mentions the Nine Power 00:30:49.730 --> 00:30:51.869 Treaty signed at the Washington Naval Conference 00:30:51.869 --> 00:30:55.910 in 1922. Once again, all the major powers sign 00:30:55.910 --> 00:30:58.890 a document explicitly reaffirming the principles 00:30:58.890 --> 00:31:01.730 of the open door and promising to respect China's 00:31:01.730 --> 00:31:03.970 territorial integrity. But the nine power treaty 00:31:03.970 --> 00:31:06.490 was just a more formalized version of John Hayes 00:31:06.490 --> 00:31:09.549 bluff. It still contained absolutely zero mechanisms 00:31:09.549 --> 00:31:11.829 for enforcement or military sanctions. It was 00:31:11.829 --> 00:31:14.529 a paper tiger. And the ultimate proof of that 00:31:14.529 --> 00:31:18.089 catastrophic failure arrived in 1931. The Manchurian 00:31:18.089 --> 00:31:20.990 incident. Yes. In 1931, elements of the Japanese 00:31:20.990 --> 00:31:23.410 military deliberately blew up a section of their 00:31:23.410 --> 00:31:26.150 own railway in Manchuria, blamed it on Chinese 00:31:26.150 --> 00:31:28.890 dissidents, and used it as a pretext to launch 00:31:28.890 --> 00:31:31.730 a full -scale invasion. They seized the entirety 00:31:31.730 --> 00:31:34.809 of Manchuria, a massive, resource -rich region 00:31:34.809 --> 00:31:37.990 of China, and established a puppet state called 00:31:37.990 --> 00:31:41.069 Manchukuo. Did the international community invoke 00:31:41.069 --> 00:31:43.069 the Nine Power Treaty? Did they defend the open 00:31:43.069 --> 00:31:45.750 door? Let me guess. They wrote a letter. Exactly. 00:31:46.000 --> 00:31:48.619 The League of Nations sent a commission, wrote 00:31:48.619 --> 00:31:50.900 a report condemning Japan, and politely asked 00:31:50.900 --> 00:31:53.759 them to leave. Japan responded by simply walking 00:31:53.759 --> 00:31:56.039 out of the League of Nations and keeping Manchuria. 00:31:56.559 --> 00:31:59.000 The open -door policy was entirely powerless 00:31:59.000 --> 00:32:01.960 to stop armored columns and bomber aircraft. 00:32:02.279 --> 00:32:04.940 And that unchecked aggression directly escalated 00:32:04.940 --> 00:32:08.119 into the horrific Second Sino -Japanese War from 00:32:08.119 --> 00:32:12.079 1937 to 1945, merging eventually into the Pacific 00:32:12.079 --> 00:32:15.230 theater of World War II. the policy utterly failed 00:32:15.230 --> 00:32:18.009 its primary objective. We have to recognize a 00:32:18.009 --> 00:32:20.150 critical point the source raises, one that is 00:32:20.150 --> 00:32:22.009 often ignored by Western historians who just 00:32:22.009 --> 00:32:25.029 focus on the diplomatic cables. The source explicitly 00:32:25.029 --> 00:32:27.390 states that Chinese leaders, while occasionally 00:32:27.390 --> 00:32:29.490 willing to leverage American diplomatic aid to 00:32:29.490 --> 00:32:32.210 fend off other powers, were absolutely unwilling 00:32:32.210 --> 00:32:34.450 to play the passive role that the open door implied. 00:32:34.869 --> 00:32:38.029 I am fascinated by that specific detail. They 00:32:38.029 --> 00:32:41.339 refused to play the passive role. The open door 00:32:41.339 --> 00:32:44.079 policy inherently treated China not as a sovereign 00:32:44.079 --> 00:32:46.880 nation, but as an inert geographic market to 00:32:46.880 --> 00:32:49.759 be managed by foreigners. That's spot on. It 00:32:49.759 --> 00:32:51.480 was like the foreign powers were treating China 00:32:51.480 --> 00:32:54.619 as a valuable, heavily stocked warehouse. A bunch 00:32:54.619 --> 00:32:57.000 of thieves are standing outside the door, arguing 00:32:57.000 --> 00:32:59.200 over who gets to hold the key and how to divide 00:32:59.200 --> 00:33:01.619 the inventory. And they completely ignore the 00:33:01.619 --> 00:33:03.559 fact that the homeowners are still inside the 00:33:03.559 --> 00:33:05.980 warehouse and they are actively trying to change 00:33:05.980 --> 00:33:08.500 the locks. That is a brilliant way to frame it. 00:33:08.819 --> 00:33:10.519 The source points out that because the policy 00:33:10.519 --> 00:33:13.039 inherently hindered Chinese sovereignty, forcing 00:33:13.039 --> 00:33:15.299 them to keep tariffs low and rely on foreign 00:33:15.299 --> 00:33:17.700 legal courts, the government of the Republic 00:33:17.700 --> 00:33:21.000 of China actively to revise and dismantle these 00:33:21.000 --> 00:33:23.920 unequal treaties throughout the 1920s and 1930s. 00:33:23.960 --> 00:33:26.759 They launched tariff autonomy campaigns. They 00:33:26.759 --> 00:33:29.660 demanded the end of extraterritoriality. They 00:33:29.660 --> 00:33:32.539 did not want the benevolent paternalistic protection 00:33:32.539 --> 00:33:35.319 of American diplomats. They wanted full autonomy 00:33:35.319 --> 00:33:37.279 over their own borders, their own ports, and 00:33:37.279 --> 00:33:40.099 their own laws. And they wouldn't fully get it 00:33:40.099 --> 00:33:42.579 until the dust settled after a global catastrophe. 00:33:42.970 --> 00:33:45.690 The text notes that only after the conclusion 00:33:45.690 --> 00:33:48.369 of World War II and the subsequent Chinese Civil 00:33:48.369 --> 00:33:51.410 War would China manage to regain total sovereignty. 00:33:52.170 --> 00:33:55.470 The historical open door era as an imperial foreign 00:33:55.470 --> 00:33:58.490 imposed construct officially ended with the founding 00:33:58.490 --> 00:34:01.789 of the People's Republic of China in 1949 when 00:34:01.789 --> 00:34:04.470 Mao Zedong essentially slammed the door shut 00:34:04.470 --> 00:34:07.089 on Western catalyst influence. The historical 00:34:07.089 --> 00:34:09.670 irony here is profound. An American policy that 00:34:09.670 --> 00:34:12.409 was explicitly designed to keep China open to 00:34:12.409 --> 00:34:15.210 Western economic exploitation ultimately bred 00:34:15.210 --> 00:34:18.250 a deep hardened nationalistic resistance. The 00:34:18.250 --> 00:34:20.090 arrogance of the open door and the betrayals 00:34:20.090 --> 00:34:23.050 at Versailles fuel China's long bloody drive 00:34:23.050 --> 00:34:25.750 for total independence from that very same foreign 00:34:25.750 --> 00:34:27.510 influence. You would think the concept of the 00:34:27.510 --> 00:34:29.769 open door died forever with the Japanese invasion 00:34:29.769 --> 00:34:32.190 of Manchuria and the communist revolution. It 00:34:32.190 --> 00:34:34.949 had a terrible reputation inside China as a symbol 00:34:34.949 --> 00:34:37.909 of weakness, humiliation and foreign extortion. 00:34:38.250 --> 00:34:41.150 But decades later, The exact same phrase was 00:34:41.150 --> 00:34:43.309 resurrected in a way that John Hay could never 00:34:43.309 --> 00:34:46.389 ever have imagined in 1899. Which brings us to 00:34:46.389 --> 00:34:49.070 the final fascinating chapter of our deep dive, 00:34:49.650 --> 00:34:52.869 the ultimate rebranding, the modern open door. 00:34:53.469 --> 00:34:56.010 According to our source, technically the historical 00:34:56.010 --> 00:34:59.329 term open door policy applies strictly to the 00:34:59.329 --> 00:35:02.579 period before 1949. But if you jump forward in 00:35:02.579 --> 00:35:05.400 China's modern economic history to December 1978, 00:35:05.820 --> 00:35:07.840 at the third plenum of the 11th Central Committee, 00:35:08.260 --> 00:35:11.780 the phrase officially returns. In 1978, Deng 00:35:11.780 --> 00:35:14.239 Xiaoping assumes paramount leadership of China. 00:35:14.880 --> 00:35:17.840 The country is reeling from the economic devastation 00:35:17.840 --> 00:35:21.159 of the Cultural Revolution. Deng realizes that 00:35:21.159 --> 00:35:24.300 radical ideological isolation is a path to poverty. 00:35:24.590 --> 00:35:27.030 So he announces a revolutionary new economic 00:35:27.030 --> 00:35:29.409 strategy. And the official English translation 00:35:29.409 --> 00:35:31.769 often used for this strategy is, once again, 00:35:32.190 --> 00:35:34.789 the open door policy. But the mechanics, the 00:35:34.789 --> 00:35:36.590 power dynamics and the direction of leverage 00:35:36.590 --> 00:35:39.349 in this 1978 policy are completely inverted from 00:35:39.349 --> 00:35:42.230 the 1899 version. Let's look at what Deng Xiaoping 00:35:42.230 --> 00:35:44.630 actually engineered. He wanted to open the door 00:35:44.630 --> 00:35:46.969 to foreign businesses and foreign capital. He 00:35:46.969 --> 00:35:49.010 recognized that to modernize China's stagnant 00:35:49.010 --> 00:35:51.329 industry and boost its economy, he needed Western 00:35:51.329 --> 00:35:53.550 technology and Western direct investment. But 00:35:53.550 --> 00:35:55.630 he wasn't going to let foreign powers dictate 00:35:55.630 --> 00:35:58.250 the terms. The primary mechanism for this new 00:35:58.250 --> 00:36:00.389 open door was the creation of Special Economic 00:36:00.389 --> 00:36:04.570 Zones, or SEZs, established in 1980. The text 00:36:04.570 --> 00:36:08.590 lists the initial four. Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and 00:36:08.590 --> 00:36:11.769 Shantou in Guangdong province and Ximen in Fujian 00:36:11.769 --> 00:36:14.130 province. What's fascinating about these SEZs 00:36:14.130 --> 00:36:16.630 is how strategically they were deployed. They 00:36:16.630 --> 00:36:18.829 weren't just random cities. The text notes they 00:36:18.829 --> 00:36:21.050 were located directly adjacent to Hong Kong, 00:36:21.210 --> 00:36:24.079 Macau, and Taiwan. Why? Because Deng wanted to 00:36:24.079 --> 00:36:26.579 attract capital, manufacturing expertise, and 00:36:26.579 --> 00:36:29.360 business networks from those specific wealthy 00:36:29.360 --> 00:36:31.539 capitalist Chinese communities. The mechanics 00:36:31.539 --> 00:36:34.119 of the SEZs were brilliant. Deng essentially 00:36:34.119 --> 00:36:37.159 created designated controlled quarantine zones 00:36:37.159 --> 00:36:39.880 for capitalism within a socialist state. Inside 00:36:39.880 --> 00:36:42.079 an SEZ, foreign companies were offered highly 00:36:42.079 --> 00:36:44.360 favorable tax regimes. They were given access 00:36:44.360 --> 00:36:47.260 to a massive pool of disciplined, incredibly 00:36:47.260 --> 00:36:49.840 low -wage labor. They were allowed to import 00:36:49.840 --> 00:36:52.389 raw materials tariff -free. provided the finished 00:36:52.389 --> 00:36:54.550 goods were exported. The contrast between the 00:36:54.550 --> 00:36:57.989 two eras is mind -bending. The 1899 Open Door 00:36:57.989 --> 00:37:01.090 was an external policy. It was formulated in 00:37:01.090 --> 00:37:04.150 Washington, demanded by European gunships, and 00:37:04.150 --> 00:37:06.570 forced upon a weakened China in order to extract 00:37:06.570 --> 00:37:10.289 wealth outward. The 1978 Open Door was an internal 00:37:10.289 --> 00:37:12.849 policy. It was initiated by Beijing, strictly 00:37:12.849 --> 00:37:16.070 on its own sovereign terms, specifically to draw 00:37:16.070 --> 00:37:18.190 foreign wealth and technology inward to build 00:37:18.190 --> 00:37:21.730 its own domestic industrial capacity. In 1899, 00:37:21.989 --> 00:37:24.190 John Hay was trying to hack the system to benefit 00:37:24.190 --> 00:37:28.309 American factories. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping built 00:37:28.309 --> 00:37:30.489 a new system that forced American factories to 00:37:30.489 --> 00:37:32.690 relocate to China if they wanted to stay competitive. 00:37:32.969 --> 00:37:35.409 It is perhaps one of the most successful, aggressive 00:37:35.409 --> 00:37:37.949 economic tivets in human history. The source 00:37:37.949 --> 00:37:39.929 provides staggering statistics to illustrate 00:37:39.929 --> 00:37:42.210 the scale of this transformation. Let's look 00:37:42.210 --> 00:37:44.849 at Shenzhen, the very first SEZ to be established. 00:37:45.010 --> 00:37:47.420 It was basically a fishing village. Between 1981 00:37:47.420 --> 00:37:50.440 and 1993, Shenzhen averaged a massive economic 00:37:50.440 --> 00:37:53.239 growth rate of 40 percent per annum. Forty percent 00:37:53.239 --> 00:37:55.940 annual growth sustained over a decade is almost 00:37:55.940 --> 00:37:58.539 mathematically incomprehensible for a regional 00:37:58.539 --> 00:38:01.380 economy. And the national average GDP growth 00:38:01.380 --> 00:38:03.460 for China during that period was nine point eight 00:38:03.460 --> 00:38:06.099 percent, which is itself an extended economic 00:38:06.099 --> 00:38:08.679 miracle. It rapidly transformed China into what 00:38:08.679 --> 00:38:11.530 the text calls the world's factory. The shift 00:38:11.530 --> 00:38:13.829 in global manufacturing and export volume is 00:38:13.829 --> 00:38:17.909 hard to overstate. In 1978, before Deng's policy, 00:38:18.429 --> 00:38:20.590 China was ranked 32nd in the world in export 00:38:20.590 --> 00:38:23.190 volume. They were irrelevant on the global trade 00:38:23.190 --> 00:38:26.190 map. By 1989, just a decade later, it had doubled 00:38:26.190 --> 00:38:29.030 its world trade and become the 13th largest exporter. 00:38:29.349 --> 00:38:31.829 And the acceleration only compounded. The source 00:38:31.829 --> 00:38:35.449 states that in 1978, China's share of total world 00:38:35.449 --> 00:38:38.849 market exports was negligible. By 1998, after 00:38:38.849 --> 00:38:41.110 two decades of the policy, it was still under 00:38:41.110 --> 00:38:43.510 2 percent. But the foundation had been laid. 00:38:43.670 --> 00:38:46.650 By 2010, China had captured a world market share 00:38:46.650 --> 00:38:49.130 of 10 .4 percent, according to the World Trade 00:38:49.130 --> 00:38:52.110 Organization, with merchandise export sales exceeding 00:38:52.110 --> 00:38:54.869 one point five trillion dollars, the highest 00:38:54.869 --> 00:38:56.949 in the world. And the crowning statistic from 00:38:56.949 --> 00:39:00.969 the text, the ultimate historical irony. In 2013, 00:39:01.269 --> 00:39:03.630 China finally overtook the United States to become 00:39:03.630 --> 00:39:06.409 the world's biggest trading nation in goods with 00:39:06.409 --> 00:39:09.690 total imports and exports valued at over four 00:39:09.690 --> 00:39:12.349 point one six trillion dollars for the year. 00:39:12.489 --> 00:39:15.309 Let that sink in. The nation that the United 00:39:15.309 --> 00:39:17.929 States was in absolute panic over losing the 00:39:17.929 --> 00:39:21.090 right to sell goods to in 1899 had structurally 00:39:21.090 --> 00:39:23.309 transformed itself into the nation outselling 00:39:23.309 --> 00:39:26.829 the United States globally a century later. Deng 00:39:26.829 --> 00:39:29.710 Xiaoping took John Hay's concept of a fair field 00:39:29.710 --> 00:39:32.309 and no favor, invited the world's corporations 00:39:32.309 --> 00:39:34.929 to play on his field, and proceeded to win the 00:39:34.929 --> 00:39:37.349 game of global manufacturing. The source leaves 00:39:37.349 --> 00:39:39.690 us with a brief intriguing footnote about the 00:39:39.690 --> 00:39:42.090 current evolving state of this modern policy. 00:39:42.320 --> 00:39:44.800 It mentions a speech by Chinese President Xi 00:39:44.800 --> 00:39:47.880 Jinping in July 2020. He was speaking to business 00:39:47.880 --> 00:39:50.639 leaders in Beijing and emphasized a shift toward 00:39:50.639 --> 00:39:53.000 a new development pattern. Yes. The concept he 00:39:53.000 --> 00:39:55.480 outlined is known as dual circulation. He stated 00:39:55.480 --> 00:39:57.519 that China must gradually form a new development 00:39:57.519 --> 00:39:59.800 pattern where the domestic internal circulation 00:39:59.800 --> 00:40:02.300 is the main body, while domestic and international 00:40:02.300 --> 00:40:04.340 dual circulations mutually promote each other. 00:40:04.539 --> 00:40:07.139 The text notes that since that speech, internal 00:40:07.139 --> 00:40:09.539 circulation has become a dominant policy phrase 00:40:09.539 --> 00:40:12.170 in China. What does that actually mean for the 00:40:12.170 --> 00:40:15.460 open door? It suggests a strategic pivot. After 00:40:15.460 --> 00:40:18.059 40 years of relying on export -driven growth, 00:40:18.340 --> 00:40:20.639 making things for the rest of the world, China 00:40:20.639 --> 00:40:24.000 is slightly closing that door, or at least shifting 00:40:24.000 --> 00:40:27.260 its massive economic engine to rely on the consumption 00:40:27.260 --> 00:40:30.360 power of its own billion -plus domestic middle 00:40:30.360 --> 00:40:32.579 class. They are insulating themselves against 00:40:32.579 --> 00:40:35.139 the exact kind of external economic pressure 00:40:35.139 --> 00:40:37.860 that John Hay tried to wield a century ago. We 00:40:37.860 --> 00:40:40.019 have covered immense ground today. We traveled 00:40:40.019 --> 00:40:42.059 from the frantic economic panic of an American 00:40:42.059 --> 00:40:44.480 industrial machine facing overproduction in 18 00:40:44.480 --> 00:40:47.820 - staring down European empires, actively carving 00:40:47.820 --> 00:40:50.880 up a map of Asia. We dissected the cynical brilliance 00:40:50.880 --> 00:40:53.679 of William Rockhill and John Hay, who bluffed 00:40:53.679 --> 00:40:56.139 the entire world into publicly agreeing to an 00:40:56.139 --> 00:40:58.480 unenforced set of rules just to ensure American 00:40:58.480 --> 00:41:00.940 businesses could get a foot in the door. We examined 00:41:00.940 --> 00:41:03.760 the mechanical failure of those notes. We saw 00:41:03.760 --> 00:41:06.699 how a diplomatic doctrine without a military 00:41:06.699 --> 00:41:09.480 or legal enforcement mechanism was completely 00:41:09.480 --> 00:41:12.380 powerless to prevent a half century of brutal 00:41:12.380 --> 00:41:15.139 international conflict, the weaponization of 00:41:15.139 --> 00:41:18.199 railway loans, backroom betrayals at Versailles, 00:41:18.519 --> 00:41:21.400 and devastating mechanized wars. It failed because 00:41:21.400 --> 00:41:24.699 it ignored the agency, the anger, and the ultimate 00:41:24.699 --> 00:41:26.900 sovereignty of the Chinese people. And finally, 00:41:27.039 --> 00:41:29.199 we witnessed the ultimate reclamation of the 00:41:29.199 --> 00:41:32.389 open -door concept. We saw how Deng Xiaoping 00:41:32.389 --> 00:41:35.289 inverted the power dynamics, transforming a doctrine 00:41:35.289 --> 00:41:38.070 of foreign exploitation into the engine of the 00:41:38.070 --> 00:41:40.710 greatest, most rapid economic rise of the late 00:41:40.710 --> 00:41:43.440 20th and early 21st centuries. If there's a core 00:41:43.440 --> 00:41:45.760 lesson to extract from this history, it is about 00:41:45.760 --> 00:41:47.860 the deceptive nature of diplomatic language. 00:41:48.179 --> 00:41:49.679 Whenever you read the news today about modern 00:41:49.679 --> 00:41:51.760 trade agreements, about escalating tariff wars, 00:41:51.860 --> 00:41:54.000 or political demands for equal market access 00:41:54.000 --> 00:41:56.420 and a level playing field, remember the mechanics 00:41:56.420 --> 00:42:13.820 of 1899. And the legacy of this specific policy 00:42:13.820 --> 00:42:16.619 continues to shape our world. We discussed the 00:42:16.619 --> 00:42:18.739 historian William Appleman Williams earlier. 00:42:19.340 --> 00:42:22.719 He argued that this 1899 open door philosophy, 00:42:23.300 --> 00:42:25.980 this absolute non -negotiable belief that the 00:42:25.980 --> 00:42:28.360 United States requires unrestricted access to 00:42:28.360 --> 00:42:31.280 foreign markets to survive, did not end with 00:42:31.280 --> 00:42:33.820 China. It became the DNA of American foreign 00:42:33.820 --> 00:42:36.690 policy. It became the blueprint for an informal 00:42:36.690 --> 00:42:39.489 empire that heavily drove the geopolitical tensions 00:42:39.489 --> 00:42:41.969 of the Cold War, dictating interventions in Latin 00:42:41.969 --> 00:42:44.250 America, the Middle East and beyond. Which leaves 00:42:44.250 --> 00:42:46.630 you with this final, lingering question to ponder 00:42:46.630 --> 00:42:49.469 long after we sign off. As we watch today's global 00:42:49.469 --> 00:42:51.710 superpowers fight bitterly over dominance in 00:42:51.710 --> 00:42:54.489 semiconductor manufacturing, control over digital 00:42:54.489 --> 00:42:56.750 data privacy and the routing of global supply 00:42:56.750 --> 00:42:59.329 chains, look closely at the arguments being made. 00:42:59.519 --> 00:43:02.039 When nations demand that digital ecosystems remain 00:43:02.039 --> 00:43:04.559 open, or that trade routes remain free from tariffs, 00:43:04.940 --> 00:43:07.500 who actually benefits from that openness? Are 00:43:07.500 --> 00:43:09.739 we still just living in the long, inescapable 00:43:09.739 --> 00:43:13.559 shadow of John Hayes' 1899 bluff? Is the desperate 00:43:13.559 --> 00:43:15.599 demand for an open door still the invisible, 00:43:15.800 --> 00:43:17.800 unacknowledged engine driving global conflict 00:43:17.800 --> 00:43:18.960 today? Think about it.