WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.379 You know, it is, uh, it's one thing to lose your 00:00:03.379 --> 00:00:06.120 car keys, right? Oh yeah, definitely. Or maybe 00:00:06.120 --> 00:00:08.000 like your phone and the couch cushions. I mean, 00:00:08.119 --> 00:00:10.019 we've all been there. Right, it happens to the 00:00:10.019 --> 00:00:11.740 best of us. You retrace your steps, you check 00:00:11.740 --> 00:00:14.960 your pockets, maybe you even pat down the dog. 00:00:15.140 --> 00:00:18.420 Just in case. Exactly. But I want you to imagine 00:00:18.420 --> 00:00:20.539 trying to keep track of something the size of 00:00:20.539 --> 00:00:22.780 an actual mountain. That is a very different 00:00:22.780 --> 00:00:25.929 scale. Right. Now imagine that mountain is moving 00:00:25.929 --> 00:00:29.550 at tens of thousands of miles an hour just hurtling 00:00:29.550 --> 00:00:32.490 through the pitch blackness of space and then 00:00:32.490 --> 00:00:35.409 we just lose it. Yes, you have absolutely no 00:00:35.409 --> 00:00:37.969 idea where it went. I mean it sounds like the 00:00:38.429 --> 00:00:40.829 The inciting incident of a science fiction disaster 00:00:40.829 --> 00:00:43.509 movie, honestly. It really does. Because we naturally 00:00:43.509 --> 00:00:46.369 tend to view our map of the solar system as this 00:00:46.369 --> 00:00:49.469 incredibly precise clockwork model. You know, 00:00:49.689 --> 00:00:52.049 like every planet and asteroid is ticking along 00:00:52.049 --> 00:00:54.170 a perfectly predictable track. Right, like a 00:00:54.170 --> 00:00:57.170 neat little diagram in a textbook. Exactly. But 00:00:57.170 --> 00:01:01.009 the reality is far messier. It is remarkably 00:01:01.009 --> 00:01:04.129 easy to completely misplace a giant celestial 00:01:04.129 --> 00:01:06.799 body. Which is terrifying. But anyway, welcome 00:01:06.799 --> 00:01:11.019 to today's deep dive. We have a fascinating Wikipedia 00:01:11.019 --> 00:01:13.620 article on the table today detailing the very 00:01:13.620 --> 00:01:16.760 real, very stressful phenomenon of lost minor 00:01:16.760 --> 00:01:19.739 planets. It is a wild topic. It really is. And 00:01:19.739 --> 00:01:22.019 our mission for this deep dive is to figure out 00:01:22.019 --> 00:01:25.180 exactly how scientists can somehow lose a massive 00:01:25.180 --> 00:01:28.760 rock in space, the absolute genius level astronomical 00:01:28.760 --> 00:01:32.359 detective work required to find them again, and 00:01:32.359 --> 00:01:34.780 why keeping track of these cosmic ones. is so 00:01:34.780 --> 00:01:36.920 incredibly crucial for the safety of everyone 00:01:36.920 --> 00:01:38.980 listening right now. Yeah, to put the scale of 00:01:38.980 --> 00:01:41.140 this issue into perspective for you, astronomers 00:01:41.140 --> 00:01:45.000 have observed and cataloged over 700 ,000 minor 00:01:45.000 --> 00:01:48.560 planets. 700 ,000. Right. But based on the historical 00:01:48.560 --> 00:01:51.640 data and observation records, The true number 00:01:51.640 --> 00:01:54.760 of lost asteroids. Wait, lost, like entirely 00:01:54.760 --> 00:01:56.819 missing? Yes, ones we've definitely seen through 00:01:56.819 --> 00:01:58.959 a telescope but can no longer find. That number 00:01:58.959 --> 00:02:02.760 might be over 150 ,000. 150 ,000 missing mountains. 00:02:03.340 --> 00:02:05.319 That is, wow. OK, let's unpack this. Because 00:02:05.319 --> 00:02:06.819 I feel like we need to start with the absolute 00:02:06.819 --> 00:02:09.219 basics, so we're all on the same page. Good idea. 00:02:09.500 --> 00:02:11.759 What does it actually mean for a minor planet 00:02:11.759 --> 00:02:15.599 to be, quote unquote, lost in astronomy? Because, 00:02:15.740 --> 00:02:17.240 to be clear to you listening, it doesn't mean 00:02:17.240 --> 00:02:19.419 the asteroid exploded like the Death Star, right? 00:02:19.620 --> 00:02:22.560 No, no. So it slipped into a wormhole or something. 00:02:22.659 --> 00:02:24.900 Right, the rock is very much still there. Okay, 00:02:25.099 --> 00:02:28.539 phew. In the realm of astronomy, a minor planet 00:02:28.539 --> 00:02:31.719 is considered lost when contemporary observers 00:02:31.719 --> 00:02:35.060 simply cannot find it because its location is 00:02:35.060 --> 00:02:38.020 too uncertain to target with a modern telescope. 00:02:38.520 --> 00:02:40.520 So we just don't know where to point the camera. 00:02:40.960 --> 00:02:43.590 Exactly. Because telescopes, they do not work 00:02:43.590 --> 00:02:45.889 like a wide -angle camera lens taking a picture 00:02:45.889 --> 00:02:49.409 of the whole sky. They have incredibly narrow, 00:02:49.810 --> 00:02:52.710 hyper -focused fields of view. Like zooming way, 00:02:52.849 --> 00:02:55.150 way in. Right. It is like looking at the sky 00:02:55.150 --> 00:02:57.009 through a drinking straw. Oh, that's a great 00:02:57.009 --> 00:02:59.229 way to picture it. Yeah. So if your mathematical 00:02:59.229 --> 00:03:01.409 model doesn't tell you exactly which millimeter 00:03:01.409 --> 00:03:03.990 of the sky to point that straw at, you are not 00:03:03.990 --> 00:03:05.889 going to see the object. Oh, wait. How do we 00:03:05.889 --> 00:03:08.449 get the math so wrong? I mean, if we saw it once, 00:03:08.509 --> 00:03:11.449 shouldn't we know where it's going? Math fails 00:03:11.449 --> 00:03:14.129 when we lack what astronomers call the observation 00:03:14.129 --> 00:03:16.270 arc. The observation arc. Okay, what is that? 00:03:16.449 --> 00:03:19.310 It's the total length of time over which we actively 00:03:19.310 --> 00:03:22.810 track an object. So if an asteroid is observed 00:03:22.810 --> 00:03:26.770 only briefly, say, for just two or three days 00:03:26.770 --> 00:03:29.009 before the weather turns bad. Oh, like a cloudy 00:03:29.009 --> 00:03:31.210 night ruins the whole thing. Exactly. Or the 00:03:31.210 --> 00:03:33.689 telescope is assigned to another project, we 00:03:33.689 --> 00:03:35.949 simply don't get enough data points to plot its 00:03:35.949 --> 00:03:38.550 full elliptical orbit around the sun accurately. 00:03:38.629 --> 00:03:41.270 So it just slips away. Right. After that brief 00:03:41.270 --> 00:03:44.210 window, it might become unobservable. Its orbit 00:03:44.210 --> 00:03:46.449 might take it further away from Earth, causing 00:03:46.449 --> 00:03:48.669 it to become too faint to see. Or I guess it 00:03:48.669 --> 00:03:51.310 could go behind the Sun. Yes, its path might 00:03:51.310 --> 00:03:53.800 take it too close to the Sun's glare. meaning 00:03:53.800 --> 00:03:55.740 it is only technically in the sky during the 00:03:55.740 --> 00:03:57.979 daytime, completely washed out by sunlight. You 00:03:57.979 --> 00:03:59.860 know, I was trying to figure out how to visualize 00:03:59.860 --> 00:04:02.360 this observation arc problem for the deep dive, 00:04:02.439 --> 00:04:06.759 and it feels a bit like capturing a two -second 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:09.060 video of a car speeding down a highway. Okay, 00:04:09.060 --> 00:04:11.719 I like that. And from that tiny two -second clip, 00:04:12.219 --> 00:04:14.680 you are tasked with predicting exactly which 00:04:14.680 --> 00:04:18.060 parking spot in which city that exact car will 00:04:18.060 --> 00:04:20.420 be sitting in five years later. That analogy 00:04:20.420 --> 00:04:22.779 perfectly captures the geometry of the problem. 00:04:22.910 --> 00:04:25.589 A two -second clip gives you a rough speed and 00:04:25.589 --> 00:04:27.810 a rough heading. That's it. Right. It tells you 00:04:27.810 --> 00:04:29.850 absolutely nothing about the underlying variables. 00:04:29.970 --> 00:04:32.149 Yeah. Is the driver going to take the next exit? 00:04:32.329 --> 00:04:35.149 Are they stopping for gas? Will they hit a traffic 00:04:35.149 --> 00:04:39.029 jam? Exactly. In the vastness of space, a short 00:04:39.029 --> 00:04:42.250 observation arc translates to millions of miles 00:04:42.250 --> 00:04:45.350 of positional uncertainty. Millions of miles. 00:04:45.410 --> 00:04:48.170 And the scale of this uncertainty is quantified 00:04:48.170 --> 00:04:51.569 by astronomers using a condition code. According 00:04:51.569 --> 00:04:54.709 to the source, there are about 30 ,000 unnumbered 00:04:54.709 --> 00:04:57.269 bodies floating out there right now with a condition 00:04:57.269 --> 00:05:00.149 code of U equals 9. U equals nine. That sounds 00:05:00.149 --> 00:05:02.410 ominous, like some kind of DEFCON level. What 00:05:02.410 --> 00:05:04.889 does a nine actually mean? It is the absolute 00:05:04.889 --> 00:05:07.949 highest possible uncertainty rating for an orbit 00:05:07.949 --> 00:05:10.430 determination on a scale from zero to nine. So 00:05:10.430 --> 00:05:12.629 zero is good. Yes. A zero would mean we know 00:05:12.629 --> 00:05:14.470 exactly where the object is and where it will 00:05:14.470 --> 00:05:17.930 be for decades. A nine means we saw it sometimes 00:05:17.930 --> 00:05:20.870 decades ago. The observation arc was vanishingly 00:05:20.870 --> 00:05:23.529 small. And today we have absolutely no mathematical 00:05:23.529 --> 00:05:25.689 confidence in its location. None at all. None. 00:05:26.189 --> 00:05:28.560 And beyond those 30 ,000, U equals equals nine 00:05:28.560 --> 00:05:31.860 bodies, there are also over 1 ,000 near -Earth 00:05:31.860 --> 00:05:35.560 objects. Wait, near -Earth objects? Yes, meaning 00:05:35.560 --> 00:05:38.339 their orbits bring them uncomfortably close to 00:05:38.339 --> 00:05:40.500 our own planetary neighborhood. Oh, great. And 00:05:40.500 --> 00:05:42.959 over 1 ,000 of those have an observation arc 00:05:42.959 --> 00:05:45.500 of just one or two days. OK, let's unpack this. 00:05:45.660 --> 00:05:48.600 Because if we have thousands of giant rocks buzzing 00:05:48.600 --> 00:05:51.259 around our cosmic neighborhood, and we literally 00:05:51.259 --> 00:05:54.920 have a U9 level of no idea where they are, we 00:05:54.920 --> 00:05:57.379 obviously need a way to fix them out. We absolutely 00:05:57.379 --> 00:05:59.199 do. So how do we ever find them again? I mean, 00:05:59.279 --> 00:06:01.740 if the sky is that massive and the telescope's 00:06:01.740 --> 00:06:03.720 view is like looking through a straw, searching 00:06:03.720 --> 00:06:06.139 for them sounds mathematically impossible. It 00:06:06.139 --> 00:06:08.639 is incredibly difficult, but the process is called 00:06:08.639 --> 00:06:11.579 recovery. and it relies heavily on large -scale 00:06:11.579 --> 00:06:14.439 automated surveys scanning the sky night after 00:06:14.439 --> 00:06:16.819 night. Like robotic telescopes just taking pictures. 00:06:16.980 --> 00:06:19.560 Essentially, yes. Often, a completely separate 00:06:19.560 --> 00:06:22.240 modern astronomical survey will be mapping a 00:06:22.240 --> 00:06:25.339 region of the sky and will serendipitously observe 00:06:25.339 --> 00:06:27.579 an object moving against the background stars. 00:06:27.740 --> 00:06:31.060 Just by pure luck. A lot of it is luck. And because 00:06:31.060 --> 00:06:33.100 they don't immediately know what it is, they 00:06:33.100 --> 00:06:35.180 log it into the database as a new discovery. 00:06:35.360 --> 00:06:37.060 But wait, I'm going to push back on this a bit 00:06:37.060 --> 00:06:40.240 for you listening. If the orbit of the lost rock 00:06:40.240 --> 00:06:44.000 was highly uncertain, like a U9, how can we be 00:06:44.000 --> 00:06:47.319 absolutely sure this allegedly new rock from 00:06:47.319 --> 00:06:50.420 Tuesday night is actually the old lost rock from, 00:06:50.420 --> 00:06:53.980 say, 1995? That is a very valid question. Aren't 00:06:53.980 --> 00:06:56.000 we just essentially guessing that they match 00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:58.500 up because they look vaguely similar? No, it 00:06:58.500 --> 00:07:01.019 is a rigorous mathematical process, not a guess. 00:07:01.850 --> 00:07:04.430 When scientists notice that the orbital elements 00:07:04.430 --> 00:07:07.009 of a new object look suspiciously similar to 00:07:07.009 --> 00:07:09.970 the rough historical estimates of a lost asteroid, 00:07:10.649 --> 00:07:12.470 they do something incredible. What do they do? 00:07:12.569 --> 00:07:14.970 They take the precise modern orbit of the new 00:07:14.970 --> 00:07:17.110 object and calculate its trajectory backwards 00:07:17.110 --> 00:07:19.490 in time. Backwards. They literally run the clock 00:07:19.490 --> 00:07:21.589 in reverse to see if the physics dictate that 00:07:21.589 --> 00:07:23.810 this new object would have been in the exact 00:07:23.810 --> 00:07:25.569 coordinates where the lost object was originally 00:07:25.569 --> 00:07:29.389 recorded decades ago. Oh, like rewinding a video 00:07:29.389 --> 00:07:32.470 to see where the car started. Exactly. What's 00:07:32.470 --> 00:07:35.110 fascinating here is how this backward calculation 00:07:35.110 --> 00:07:38.629 transforms our understanding of the object. Imagine 00:07:38.629 --> 00:07:42.449 a massive tangled tapestry. The new observation 00:07:42.449 --> 00:07:45.230 is a single thread you hold in your hand. The 00:07:45.230 --> 00:07:47.509 old observation is a loose thread on the other 00:07:47.509 --> 00:07:50.589 side of the room. By calculating the orbit backward, 00:07:51.029 --> 00:07:53.629 you are tracing that specific thread through 00:07:53.629 --> 00:07:56.949 the entire chaotic pattern of the tapestry. When 00:07:56.949 --> 00:07:59.430 those two ends meet perfectly, You haven't just 00:07:59.430 --> 00:08:01.370 identified the object. You've connected them. 00:08:01.529 --> 00:08:03.970 You have miraculously extended its observation 00:08:03.970 --> 00:08:06.430 arc. Suddenly, instead of a two -day arc from 00:08:06.430 --> 00:08:09.910 2025, you have a 30 -year observation arc connecting 00:08:09.910 --> 00:08:13.410 1995 to 2025. Oh, wow. That acts like a zipper 00:08:13.410 --> 00:08:15.870 connecting the two timelines. Precisely. That 00:08:15.870 --> 00:08:18.750 long arc locks the orbit into place with absolute 00:08:18.750 --> 00:08:21.269 undeniable precision. And what's wild to me is 00:08:21.269 --> 00:08:22.810 that sometimes astronomers don't even wait for 00:08:22.810 --> 00:08:24.629 a new telescope to stumble across a lost rock. 00:08:24.850 --> 00:08:27.149 They dig through old photos. Yes, precovery. 00:08:27.290 --> 00:08:29.569 The source outlines this concept of precovery, 00:08:29.689 --> 00:08:31.649 which I love. It's like discovery, but you're 00:08:31.649 --> 00:08:34.289 discovering it in the past. Precovery is effectively 00:08:34.289 --> 00:08:37.909 astronomical archaeology. Archaeology, yes. Once 00:08:37.909 --> 00:08:40.009 you have a newly discovered asteroid and a fairly 00:08:40.009 --> 00:08:42.870 decent initial orbit, you run that mathematical 00:08:42.870 --> 00:08:45.620 model backward. But instead of matching it to 00:08:45.620 --> 00:08:48.679 a known lost object you physically go to the 00:08:48.679 --> 00:08:51.100 astronomical archives like actual filing cabinets 00:08:51.100 --> 00:08:54.679 Well, you pull out old dusty glass photographic 00:08:54.679 --> 00:08:57.980 plates from 30 40 or 50 years ago Plates that 00:08:57.980 --> 00:09:00.000 were taken for entirely different experiments 00:09:00.000 --> 00:09:02.620 to see if your asteroid happened to be photobombing 00:09:02.620 --> 00:09:04.620 the background Which is exactly what happened 00:09:04.620 --> 00:09:08.740 with the incredibly named asteroid 7 -7 -9 -6 00:09:08.740 --> 00:09:12.100 Jarosimem. A classic example. Right. This rock 00:09:12.100 --> 00:09:14.919 was officially discovered in 1996 by astronomers 00:09:14.919 --> 00:09:17.740 in the Czech Republic. But once they locked down 00:09:17.740 --> 00:09:20.519 its orbit and ran the math backward, they realized 00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:22.440 they could trace its path through history. They 00:09:22.440 --> 00:09:24.259 went right back to the archives. They checked 00:09:24.259 --> 00:09:26.740 the archives and found it hiding in plain sight 00:09:26.740 --> 00:09:29.340 in old photos from an Italian observatory taken 00:09:29.340 --> 00:09:32.740 in 1973 and an Australian observatory in the 00:09:32.490 --> 00:09:35.129 It is amazing what you can find when you know 00:09:35.129 --> 00:09:37.370 exactly where to look. It was right there, hanging 00:09:37.370 --> 00:09:39.210 out in the background of the universe for 23 00:09:39.210 --> 00:09:41.669 years before anyone actually noticed it. The 00:09:41.669 --> 00:09:44.070 amount of undiscovered data sitting in our physical 00:09:44.070 --> 00:09:47.669 archives is staggering. However, applying this 00:09:47.669 --> 00:09:49.950 backward -tracing math has a major limitation. 00:09:50.250 --> 00:09:53.889 Oh, what's the catch? As elegant as the physics 00:09:53.889 --> 00:09:57.059 are, The calculations become incredibly unreliable 00:09:57.059 --> 00:09:59.299 when you transition from tracking asteroids to 00:09:59.299 --> 00:10:02.980 tracking comets. Oh, right. The comets. The source 00:10:02.980 --> 00:10:05.320 specifically highlights the nightmare of non 00:10:05.320 --> 00:10:08.279 -gravitational forces. This part of the source 00:10:08.279 --> 00:10:10.700 blew my mind. Because I always thought gravity 00:10:10.700 --> 00:10:12.600 was the only thing steering the ship out there. 00:10:12.720 --> 00:10:15.480 It is for asteroids. Asteroids are mostly inert 00:10:15.480 --> 00:10:18.690 chunks of rock and metal. Their paths are dictated 00:10:18.690 --> 00:10:21.009 entirely by the gravitational pull of the Sun 00:10:21.009 --> 00:10:23.289 and the planets. Right, standard physics. But 00:10:23.289 --> 00:10:25.789 comets, conversely, are composed largely of ice 00:10:25.789 --> 00:10:28.909 and dust. When a comet's orbit brings it closer 00:10:28.909 --> 00:10:31.789 to the sun, the rising temperature causes that 00:10:31.789 --> 00:10:34.190 ice to sublimate. Which means it turns directly 00:10:34.190 --> 00:10:37.090 from a solid into a gas, right? Correct. And 00:10:37.090 --> 00:10:39.450 this violent reaction creates powerful jets of 00:10:39.450 --> 00:10:41.470 gas shooting out of the comet's nucleus. Which 00:10:41.470 --> 00:10:43.870 act like tiny, completely unpredictable rocket 00:10:43.870 --> 00:10:47.169 thrusters. They literally alter the comet's physical 00:10:47.169 --> 00:10:49.649 trajectory, pushing it off its gravity -defined 00:10:49.649 --> 00:10:53.269 course. You cannot run the math backward on a 00:10:53.269 --> 00:10:55.330 comet with perfect precision because you have 00:10:55.330 --> 00:10:57.940 absolutely no way of knowing exactly when, in 00:10:57.940 --> 00:11:00.539 what direction, or how hard those microscopic 00:11:00.539 --> 00:11:03.379 gas jets were firing 40 years ago. It's like 00:11:03.379 --> 00:11:06.320 trying to predict the exact path of a deflating 00:11:06.320 --> 00:11:08.820 balloon zooming around a living room. It's just 00:11:08.820 --> 00:11:11.240 inherently chaotic. The chaos creates a massive 00:11:11.240 --> 00:11:14.240 headache for orbital dynamicists. And that chaos 00:11:14.240 --> 00:11:16.820 becomes infinitely more concerning when those 00:11:16.820 --> 00:11:18.960 unpredictable trajectories intersect with our 00:11:18.960 --> 00:11:21.539 own. Here's where it gets really interesting. 00:11:22.360 --> 00:11:25.200 Because losing a random chunk of ice billions 00:11:25.200 --> 00:11:27.240 of miles away is a frustrating math problem, 00:11:27.320 --> 00:11:29.299 sure. Right. But what happens when the mountain 00:11:29.299 --> 00:11:32.139 we lost is potentially headed right for us? The 00:11:32.139 --> 00:11:34.860 stakes go from an academic puzzle to a literal 00:11:34.860 --> 00:11:37.399 planetary survival scenario. It is the ultimate 00:11:37.399 --> 00:11:39.500 high stakes situation. Let's look at the near 00:11:39.500 --> 00:11:42.259 -Earth asteroid 1950 DA. This is one of the most 00:11:42.259 --> 00:11:44.299 famous case studies in the source. Very famous. 00:11:44.580 --> 00:11:47.259 It was discovered in 1950. Astronomers watched 00:11:47.259 --> 00:11:50.639 it for exactly 17 days and then poof! It was 00:11:50.639 --> 00:11:53.379 gone. They did not have a long enough observation 00:11:53.379 --> 00:11:56.539 arc to plot the orbit accurately. It was completely 00:11:56.539 --> 00:12:00.080 missing until December 31st, the year 2000, exactly 00:12:00.080 --> 00:12:02.360 a half century later. And once they recovered 00:12:02.360 --> 00:12:05.799 1950 DA on New Year's Eve in 2000, they used 00:12:05.799 --> 00:12:08.320 that 50 -year gap to extend the observation arc, 00:12:08.820 --> 00:12:11.259 locked in the orbital mechanics with incredible 00:12:11.259 --> 00:12:13.740 precision, and projected the path forward. And 00:12:13.740 --> 00:12:16.379 what did they find? The resulting data is chilling. 00:12:17.169 --> 00:12:20.490 This specific asteroid has a 1 in 4 ,000 chance. 00:12:20.570 --> 00:12:24.610 Which is a 0 .025 % probability. Yes, a 1 in 00:12:24.610 --> 00:12:27.029 4 ,000 chance of impacting Earth on a highly 00:12:27.029 --> 00:12:30.529 specific date, March 16th, 2880. That level of 00:12:30.529 --> 00:12:33.690 precision is terrifyingly specific. 2880. Let 00:12:33.690 --> 00:12:35.210 me just put a pin in my calendar for that one. 00:12:35.450 --> 00:12:37.649 But honestly, a 1 in 4 ,000 chance actually sounds 00:12:37.649 --> 00:12:39.669 kind of high when the consequence is a global 00:12:39.669 --> 00:12:41.730 catastrophe. In the realm of planetary defense, 00:12:42.149 --> 00:12:44.750 1 in 4 ,000 is a highly significant probability. 00:12:45.320 --> 00:12:47.419 The saving grace is that we know exactly where 00:12:47.419 --> 00:12:50.080 1950 DA is today. Right. It's not lost anymore. 00:12:50.419 --> 00:12:52.919 Exactly. We have over 800 years to track its 00:12:52.919 --> 00:12:55.460 movements, measure any deviations, and engineer 00:12:55.460 --> 00:12:57.820 a deflection mission if it truly threatens us. 00:12:58.679 --> 00:13:01.120 The scenarios that genuinely keep planetary defense 00:13:01.120 --> 00:13:03.960 experts awake at night are the massive objects 00:13:03.960 --> 00:13:06.419 that are still lost right now. Which brings us 00:13:06.419 --> 00:13:10.500 to a rock known as 1979XB. I read the stats on 00:13:10.500 --> 00:13:12.179 this one and immediately felt a little stressed 00:13:12.179 --> 00:13:16.000 out for all of us. Understandably. 1979XB is 00:13:16.000 --> 00:13:19.519 a 660 -meter asteroid. Huge. To visualize that, 00:13:19.899 --> 00:13:22.399 it is over 2 ,000 feet wide, roughly the size 00:13:22.399 --> 00:13:25.139 of the Pentagon. Oh my gosh. An impact from an 00:13:25.139 --> 00:13:27.379 object that size is easily large enough to wipe 00:13:27.379 --> 00:13:30.179 out a major metropolitan area or trigger a devastating 00:13:30.179 --> 00:13:33.360 global tsunami. It was observed for a mere 3 00:13:33.360 --> 00:13:37.320 .9 days back in 1979. 3 .9 days. And it's never 00:13:37.320 --> 00:13:39.159 been seen since. And according to the source, 00:13:39.279 --> 00:13:41.580 it currently sits with the fourth highest cumulative 00:13:41.580 --> 00:13:44.139 rating on the Palermo scale. Now, I know the 00:13:44.139 --> 00:13:46.820 Palermo scale measures impact hazards, but can 00:13:46.820 --> 00:13:49.100 you explain why this specific lost rock is ranked 00:13:49.100 --> 00:13:51.860 so incredibly high? Because it has potential 00:13:51.860 --> 00:13:55.960 close approaches to Earth in 2056, 2086, 2102, 00:13:56.059 --> 00:13:59.350 and 2113, But the actual mathematical odds of 00:13:59.350 --> 00:14:03.490 it hitting up in 2056 are listed at 1 in 5 .3 00:14:03.490 --> 00:14:07.129 million. Right. That is a tiny probability. Why 00:14:07.129 --> 00:14:09.389 is it ranked number 4 on the hazard scale if 00:14:09.389 --> 00:14:11.730 the odds of it hitting us are 1 in 5 million? 00:14:11.929 --> 00:14:14.409 The Palermo scale is an ingenious metric because 00:14:14.409 --> 00:14:16.549 it doesn't just look at the raw probability of 00:14:16.549 --> 00:14:19.179 an impact. It weighs the probability against 00:14:19.179 --> 00:14:21.139 the kinetic energy, the destructive power of 00:14:21.139 --> 00:14:23.799 the asteroid. So size matters. Immensely. A 10 00:14:23.799 --> 00:14:26.240 -foot rock with a 90 % chance of hitting Earth 00:14:26.240 --> 00:14:28.759 scores very low because it'll just burn up in 00:14:28.759 --> 00:14:30.340 the atmosphere. Right, a nice little shooting 00:14:30.340 --> 00:14:33.539 star. Exactly. But a 660 -meter monster like 00:14:33.539 --> 00:14:37.529 1979XB scores incredibly high. even with low 00:14:37.529 --> 00:14:39.870 odds, because the consequences of an impact are 00:14:39.870 --> 00:14:42.889 catastrophic. Furthermore, those 1 in 5 .3 million 00:14:42.889 --> 00:14:45.070 odds are actually a symptom of our ignorance. 00:14:45.110 --> 00:14:48.230 How so? Because we only have a 3 .9 -day observation 00:14:48.230 --> 00:14:50.950 arc from 40 years ago, the cone of probability 00:14:50.950 --> 00:14:53.789 for where this asteroid might be in 2056 is tens 00:14:53.789 --> 00:14:56.580 of millions of miles wide. The cone of probability 00:14:56.580 --> 00:14:58.799 being the mathematical projection of all the 00:14:58.799 --> 00:15:01.399 possible places the rock could be, given the 00:15:01.399 --> 00:15:03.960 uncertainty of the map. Correct. As time goes 00:15:03.960 --> 00:15:07.039 on, that cone gets wider and wider. Earth happens 00:15:07.039 --> 00:15:09.940 to be sitting squarely inside that enormous cone 00:15:09.940 --> 00:15:13.740 for the year 2056. Oh, that's not good. We mathematically 00:15:13.740 --> 00:15:16.899 cannot rule out an impact. But because the cone 00:15:16.899 --> 00:15:20.120 is so astronomically huge, the specific percentage 00:15:20.120 --> 00:15:22.940 chance of the asteroid hitting the exact tiny 00:15:22.940 --> 00:15:25.740 coordinate where Earth will be is mathematically 00:15:25.740 --> 00:15:28.659 diluted. I see. This raises an important question 00:15:28.659 --> 00:15:31.379 regarding how we allocate global astronomical 00:15:31.379 --> 00:15:33.759 resources. What do you mean? Well, if you have 00:15:33.759 --> 00:15:36.220 limited telescope time and funding, do you focus 00:15:36.220 --> 00:15:38.919 on scanning the deep sky for new undiscovered 00:15:38.919 --> 00:15:41.740 threats? Or do you dedicate months of telescope 00:15:41.740 --> 00:15:44.179 time staring at an empty patch of sky hoping 00:15:44.179 --> 00:15:46.659 to recover a 600 meter lost rock that might be 00:15:46.659 --> 00:15:48.899 there? just to shrink its cone of probability. 00:15:49.100 --> 00:15:51.600 It is the ultimate needle in a cosmic haystack. 00:15:51.820 --> 00:15:53.799 And what makes it worse is that sometimes, even 00:15:53.799 --> 00:15:56.100 when we know exactly where a rock is, the physics 00:15:56.100 --> 00:15:58.059 of the universe step in and scramble the math. 00:15:58.220 --> 00:16:01.320 They absolutely do. The story of asteroid 2007 00:16:01.320 --> 00:16:04.320 WD -5 is the perfect example of this. Ah, the 00:16:04.320 --> 00:16:07.600 Apollo Class Mars Crosser. Yes. And for you listening, 00:16:07.779 --> 00:16:10.419 an Apollo Class asteroid means its orbit actually 00:16:10.419 --> 00:16:12.879 crosses Earth's orbit, which makes it inherently 00:16:12.879 --> 00:16:15.580 relevant to our survival. But this one is also 00:16:15.580 --> 00:16:18.059 a Mars Crosser, meaning it is playing in traffic 00:16:18.059 --> 00:16:21.700 across multiple planetary lanes. A very dangerous 00:16:21.700 --> 00:16:24.679 orbit. Very. It's about 50 meters wide, discovered 00:16:24.679 --> 00:16:27.980 in 2007. Early on, scientists were on the edge 00:16:27.980 --> 00:16:29.889 of their seats because they calculated it had 00:16:29.889 --> 00:16:33.450 a 1 in 25 chance of impacting Mars. 1 in 25. 00:16:33.509 --> 00:16:35.190 1 in 25. People thought they were going to get 00:16:35.190 --> 00:16:38.009 to watch a live explosive asteroid impact on 00:16:38.009 --> 00:16:40.129 the Martian surface. It generated an enormous 00:16:40.129 --> 00:16:42.049 amount of excitement in the scientific community. 00:16:42.070 --> 00:16:44.529 I bet. But as astronomers gathered more observations 00:16:44.529 --> 00:16:47.190 and refined the observation arc, the cone of 00:16:47.190 --> 00:16:49.529 probability shrank and the odds of a direct hit 00:16:49.529 --> 00:16:53.340 dropped. It ended up missing Mars. But barely. 00:16:53.519 --> 00:16:56.200 Right. It missed the planet by just 21 ,000 kilometers. 00:16:56.320 --> 00:16:59.059 It passed only 16 ,000 kilometers from Mars's 00:16:59.059 --> 00:17:02.440 tiny moon, Deimos. That is a cosmic hair's breadth. 00:17:02.740 --> 00:17:05.779 It is. And that spectacular near miss created 00:17:05.779 --> 00:17:08.799 an entirely new problem. When an object passes 00:17:08.799 --> 00:17:11.740 that intimately close to a planetary body, the 00:17:11.740 --> 00:17:14.220 planet's immense gravity exerts a tremendous 00:17:14.220 --> 00:17:16.859 pulling force on it. Like a magnet. In orbital 00:17:16.859 --> 00:17:19.039 mechanics, we call this a gravity assist or a 00:17:19.039 --> 00:17:21.950 slingshot effect. Which physically bends the 00:17:21.950 --> 00:17:24.589 asteroid's trajectory. The irony of this is just 00:17:24.589 --> 00:17:27.109 incredible to me. It really is. It passed so 00:17:27.109 --> 00:17:29.470 incredibly close to Mars that the gravitational 00:17:29.470 --> 00:17:32.730 bending of its path essentially invalidated all 00:17:32.730 --> 00:17:35.089 of the previous math we had done on it. Completely 00:17:35.089 --> 00:17:38.349 erased it. By narrowly avoiding a fiery impact 00:17:38.349 --> 00:17:41.210 with Mars, the gravity scrambled its orbit so 00:17:41.210 --> 00:17:43.230 dramatically that we lost the asteroid entirely. 00:17:43.549 --> 00:17:47.150 We have no idea where 2007 WD -5 is today. It 00:17:47.150 --> 00:17:49.430 serves as a perfect demonstration of the chaotic 00:17:49.450 --> 00:17:51.930 dynamics governing the solar system. You can 00:17:51.930 --> 00:17:53.809 have the most precise mathematical models in 00:17:53.809 --> 00:17:56.349 the world, but a slight gravitational tug from 00:17:56.349 --> 00:17:59.049 a passing planet changes the entire equation 00:17:59.049 --> 00:18:01.369 permanently. Now, to be fair, sometimes losing 00:18:01.369 --> 00:18:03.750 an asteroid isn't about existential dread or 00:18:03.750 --> 00:18:06.230 gravity assists. Sometimes it's just a giant 00:18:06.230 --> 00:18:09.609 human error. Yes, that is also true. A bureaucratic 00:18:09.609 --> 00:18:12.869 mix -up. An administrative identity crisis. The 00:18:12.869 --> 00:18:15.250 history of minor planet discovery is unfortunately 00:18:15.250 --> 00:18:18.170 full of these administrative nightmares. much 00:18:18.170 --> 00:18:20.549 to the chagrin of the Minor Planet Center. They're 00:18:20.549 --> 00:18:22.390 the organization tasked with keeping all these 00:18:22.390 --> 00:18:24.849 records straight, right? Yes. And the saga of 00:18:24.849 --> 00:18:29.009 the 1125 China mix -up is a classic example of 00:18:29.009 --> 00:18:31.789 how messy human cataloging can be. I love this 00:18:31.789 --> 00:18:33.730 story from the source. Okay. Put yourself in 00:18:33.730 --> 00:18:37.250 the sky shoes. In 1928, an astronomer named Zhang 00:18:37.250 --> 00:18:40.450 Yuze is studying in Chicago. He discovers a brand 00:18:40.450 --> 00:18:43.549 new asteroid. A great achievement. Huge. He gets 00:18:43.549 --> 00:18:45.890 the honor of naming it, so he names it China. 00:18:46.309 --> 00:18:48.369 And the Minor Planet Center gives it the official 00:18:48.369 --> 00:18:51.829 catalog number 11125. But then they lose it. 00:18:51.849 --> 00:18:53.529 They lose it. They don't observe it long enough. 00:18:53.609 --> 00:18:55.769 The arc is too short and it vanishes into the 00:18:55.769 --> 00:18:59.910 dark. Fast forward nearly 30 years to 1957. The 00:18:59.910 --> 00:19:02.759 Purple Mountain Observatory in China. discovers 00:19:02.759 --> 00:19:05.680 a new asteroid. Okay. They search the catalogs. 00:19:05.720 --> 00:19:08.700 They cannot find the old 1928 asteroid. So they 00:19:08.700 --> 00:19:11.460 reach out to Zhang Yuze and ask if they can just 00:19:11.460 --> 00:19:14.019 reuse his name. Since his rock is gone. Right. 00:19:14.440 --> 00:19:17.420 He agrees. So this newly discovered 1957 asteroid 00:19:17.420 --> 00:19:21.500 officially assumes the title of 1125 China. The 00:19:21.500 --> 00:19:24.339 old 1928 rock is basically written off as a permanent 00:19:24.339 --> 00:19:27.039 loss. But then, almost 30 years after that, in 00:19:27.039 --> 00:19:30.519 1986, an astronomer discovers an asteroid. They 00:19:30.519 --> 00:19:32.440 take the new data, they run the tapestry math 00:19:32.440 --> 00:19:34.599 backward, and they realize they just found the 00:19:34.599 --> 00:19:37.400 original lost asteroid from 1928. It was a shocking 00:19:37.400 --> 00:19:39.740 realization. So now the Minor Planet Center has 00:19:39.740 --> 00:19:42.579 two entirely different asteroids orbiting in 00:19:42.579 --> 00:19:44.900 space, and they both technically have a historical 00:19:44.900 --> 00:19:48.339 claim to the name and number 1125 China. It was 00:19:48.339 --> 00:19:50.420 an absolute mess for the database maintainers. 00:19:50.619 --> 00:19:53.000 You cannot simply overwrite or reuse catalog 00:19:53.000 --> 00:19:55.309 numbers without causing systemic errors. Well, 00:19:55.309 --> 00:19:57.609 what did they do? To fix the administrative nightmare, 00:19:57.670 --> 00:20:00.670 they compromised. They allowed the 1957 asteroid 00:20:00.670 --> 00:20:03.410 to keep the title 1125 China, and they took the 00:20:03.410 --> 00:20:06.650 newly rediscovered original 1928 asteroid and 00:20:06.650 --> 00:20:10.369 officially named it 3789 Zhonggu. Which brilliantly 00:20:10.369 --> 00:20:12.910 is just the pinyin romanization of the Chinese 00:20:12.910 --> 00:20:14.950 word for China. They literally named them both 00:20:14.950 --> 00:20:16.809 China just using different linguistic formats 00:20:16.809 --> 00:20:19.190 to keep the paperwork clean. I love that so much. 00:20:19.349 --> 00:20:21.950 It was a very elegant solution. But at least 00:20:21.950 --> 00:20:25.200 that rock actually existed in the sky. Let's 00:20:25.200 --> 00:20:28.240 talk about the ultimate astronomical false positive, 00:20:28.619 --> 00:20:32.440 the story of 330 Adelberta. Oh, this is a rather 00:20:32.440 --> 00:20:34.680 embarrassing footnote in astronomical history 00:20:34.680 --> 00:20:37.380 from 1892. Embarrassing is a good word for it. 00:20:37.559 --> 00:20:40.000 An astronomer named Max Wolfe discovered what 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:42.799 he strongly believed was an asteroid. He formally 00:20:42.799 --> 00:20:46.660 named it 330 Adelberta. And then, like so many 00:20:46.660 --> 00:20:49.000 others we've discussed, it was lost. Typical. 00:20:49.180 --> 00:20:52.140 And it remained lost for 90 years. Imagine doing 00:20:52.140 --> 00:20:54.589 your job. publishing your findings, and it takes 00:20:54.589 --> 00:20:56.849 90 years long after you're gone for people to 00:20:56.849 --> 00:20:58.990 realize you made a massive mistake. Exactly. 00:20:59.410 --> 00:21:01.470 For nine decades, astronomers occasionally tried 00:21:01.470 --> 00:21:05.089 to recover Adelberta. Finally, in 1982, scientists 00:21:05.089 --> 00:21:07.710 physically reviewed the original glass photographic 00:21:07.710 --> 00:21:10.759 plates from 1892. And what did they find? Looking 00:21:10.759 --> 00:21:12.720 closely at the emulsion, they realized the asteroid 00:21:12.720 --> 00:21:14.940 never existed in the first place. He was literally 00:21:14.940 --> 00:21:18.059 looking at stars. Yes. Max Wolfe had accidentally 00:21:18.059 --> 00:21:20.819 measured two distinct overlapping images of faint 00:21:20.819 --> 00:21:23.619 background stars and erroneously assumed the 00:21:23.619 --> 00:21:26.539 dual smudges were a single moving asteroid. The 00:21:26.539 --> 00:21:29.559 object was a complete phantom. So to clean up 00:21:29.559 --> 00:21:32.079 the historical catalogs without leaving a glaring 00:21:32.079 --> 00:21:35.059 blank spot at number 330, they quietly took the 00:21:35.059 --> 00:21:39.000 name 330 Adelberta and reassigned it to a completely 00:21:39.000 --> 00:21:40.940 different asteroid that had been discovered in 00:21:40.940 --> 00:21:43.099 1910. They just recycled the name to hide the 00:21:43.099 --> 00:21:45.519 mistake. Just nothing to see here, folks. 8 -old 00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:48.259 Berta is perfectly fine. She just naturally migrated 00:21:48.259 --> 00:21:50.980 to 1910. It was a pragmatic fix. And what's crazy 00:21:50.980 --> 00:21:53.339 is that these imposter mix -ups are still happening 00:21:53.339 --> 00:21:55.920 today. It's not just guys squinting at glass 00:21:55.920 --> 00:21:58.799 plates in the 1800s. We have modern imposter 00:21:58.799 --> 00:22:01.660 asteroids. We do. The modern imposter phenomenon 00:22:01.660 --> 00:22:04.579 is largely a byproduct of human space exploration. 00:22:05.180 --> 00:22:09.829 Take the object catalog as 6Q0B44E. Okay, what's 00:22:09.829 --> 00:22:11.630 the story with this one? It was discovered in 00:22:11.630 --> 00:22:14.130 2006 orbiting out beyond the moon. Through a 00:22:14.130 --> 00:22:16.269 telescope it behaved exactly like a small minor 00:22:16.269 --> 00:22:18.769 planet. It looked like a rock. Yes, but upon 00:22:18.769 --> 00:22:20.970 closer spectroscopic inspection of its light 00:22:20.970 --> 00:22:23.430 curves and its orbital dynamics, its properties 00:22:23.430 --> 00:22:25.670 perfectly matched the density of artificial space 00:22:25.670 --> 00:22:28.250 debris. It was literally our own spill trash 00:22:28.250 --> 00:22:30.940 masquerading as a minor planet. Most likely, 00:22:31.200 --> 00:22:33.539 a piece of an old rocket booster from an early 00:22:33.539 --> 00:22:36.200 lunar mission. Because it was confirmed artificial, 00:22:36.339 --> 00:22:38.500 it was stripped of any official minor planet 00:22:38.500 --> 00:22:42.400 designation. And then, fittingly, we lost track 00:22:42.400 --> 00:22:44.859 of the trash in 2007. But the trash came back! 00:22:45.420 --> 00:22:48.619 It certainly appears so. In 2016, an object designated 00:22:48.619 --> 00:22:52.440 XL8D89E was found on a strikingly similar orbit. 00:22:53.240 --> 00:22:55.299 Astronomers strongly suspect it is the exact 00:22:55.299 --> 00:22:57.740 same piece of debris. That's hilarious. And what 00:22:57.740 --> 00:23:00.140 is truly remarkable is that this metallic object 00:23:00.140 --> 00:23:02.940 experiences non -gravitational acceleration, 00:23:03.380 --> 00:23:05.359 just like the icy comets we discussed earlier. 00:23:05.519 --> 00:23:08.039 Wait, how does an empty metal tube of space trash 00:23:08.039 --> 00:23:10.240 have non -gravitational acceleration? It doesn't 00:23:10.240 --> 00:23:12.900 have ice sublimating into gas jets. No, it doesn't. 00:23:13.019 --> 00:23:14.660 The leading theory is that the debris might have 00:23:14.660 --> 00:23:17.279 had a very slow microscopic gas leak. Like a 00:23:17.279 --> 00:23:19.720 punctured tire. Perhaps leftover pressurized 00:23:19.720 --> 00:23:22.450 propellant or coolant. just enough of a microscopic 00:23:22.450 --> 00:23:25.529 leak over a decade to act as a minuscule continuous 00:23:25.529 --> 00:23:28.210 thruster. Oh wow. This slightly altered its orbit 00:23:28.210 --> 00:23:30.049 and made it incredibly difficult for our models 00:23:30.049 --> 00:23:33.089 to track. And sure enough, because of that unpredictable 00:23:33.089 --> 00:23:37.170 acceleration, XL8D89E was lost again in 2018. 00:23:37.480 --> 00:23:39.940 We literally cannot even keep track of our own 00:23:39.940 --> 00:23:43.700 garbage in orbit. So to wrap up our tour of the 00:23:43.700 --> 00:23:46.740 lost and found, let's look out as far as we possibly 00:23:46.740 --> 00:23:49.880 can to the absolute extreme edge of our solar 00:23:49.880 --> 00:23:51.880 system. Yes, if we connect this to the bigger 00:23:51.880 --> 00:23:54.339 picture, the outer solar system is where the 00:23:54.339 --> 00:23:56.980 concept of loss takes on a terrifyingly massive 00:23:56.980 --> 00:24:00.099 scale. It really does. The trans -Neptunian object 00:24:00.099 --> 00:24:05.059 2020 MK53 is a perfect example of this. extreme 00:24:05.059 --> 00:24:07.680 frontier. This was discovered in 2020 by the 00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:10.880 New Horizons team using a massive 8 .2 meter 00:24:10.880 --> 00:24:13.779 telescope in Hawaii, and they observed it for 00:24:13.779 --> 00:24:16.160 exactly three days before losing it. And when 00:24:16.160 --> 00:24:18.240 an object is located in the trans -Neptunian 00:24:18.240 --> 00:24:21.400 region billions of miles away, it moves incredibly 00:24:21.400 --> 00:24:23.980 slowly against the background stars. Right. Three 00:24:23.980 --> 00:24:26.240 days of observation is practically nothing. It 00:24:26.240 --> 00:24:28.220 barely provides a millimeter of the tapestry 00:24:28.220 --> 00:24:30.700 thread. Based on those three days, calculations 00:24:30.700 --> 00:24:33.480 suggest it might be 160 astronomical units away 00:24:33.480 --> 00:24:36.079 from the Sun. For you listening, an astronomical 00:24:36.079 --> 00:24:38.220 unit is the distance from the Earth to the Sun, 00:24:38.400 --> 00:24:41.359 so this rock is 160 times further away from the 00:24:41.359 --> 00:24:44.140 Sun than we are. If that calculation holds true, 00:24:44.539 --> 00:24:49.380 it would make 2020 MK53 the farthest known solar 00:24:49.380 --> 00:24:51.720 system object ever discovered by humanity. Which 00:24:51.720 --> 00:24:54.839 is incredible! But, and this is a catastrophic, 00:24:54.980 --> 00:24:56.880 but for the math, because the observation arc 00:24:56.880 --> 00:25:00.049 was only three days, The uncertainty of its orbit 00:25:00.049 --> 00:25:02.970 is mind -boggling. How bad is it? Depending on 00:25:02.970 --> 00:25:05.750 the mathematical method applied, the margin of 00:25:05.750 --> 00:25:08.349 error on its distance from the Sun ranges from 00:25:08.349 --> 00:25:10.849 plus or minus four astronomical units. Okay, 00:25:10.890 --> 00:25:13.990 that's far. To over plus or minus 20 ,000 astronomical 00:25:13.990 --> 00:25:17.109 units. Plus or minus 20 ,000. The margin of error 00:25:17.109 --> 00:25:20.130 is literally tens of thousands of times larger 00:25:20.130 --> 00:25:22.450 than the physical size of our entire planetary 00:25:22.450 --> 00:25:25.309 system. Yes. We have absolutely zero idea where 00:25:25.309 --> 00:25:27.609 it is. We know it exists somewhere in the deep 00:25:27.609 --> 00:25:30.710 dark. But for all practical observational purposes, 00:25:31.089 --> 00:25:33.829 it is utterly and completely lost. So what does 00:25:33.829 --> 00:25:36.250 this all mean? We started this deep dive trying 00:25:36.250 --> 00:25:38.829 to figure out how you lose a mountain in space. 00:25:39.089 --> 00:25:41.069 And what we've learned is that our map of the 00:25:41.069 --> 00:25:43.930 solar system is not a static, reliable drawing 00:25:43.930 --> 00:25:47.150 in a textbook. Far from it. It is a living, breathing, 00:25:47.490 --> 00:25:50.859 incredibly messy ledger of moving targets. a 00:25:50.859 --> 00:25:53.160 ledger where objects the size of entire cities 00:25:53.160 --> 00:25:55.539 can just slip through the math because a telescope 00:25:55.539 --> 00:25:58.000 didn't watch them for an extra Tuesday in 1979, 00:25:58.480 --> 00:26:00.660 or because Mars happened to pull them slightly 00:26:00.660 --> 00:26:02.940 to the left. And that reality leaves us with 00:26:02.940 --> 00:26:05.460 a rather profound concept to consider. What's 00:26:05.460 --> 00:26:10.900 that? We spend so much time acting as if human 00:26:10.900 --> 00:26:13.339 knowledge has conquered our local cosmic neighborhood. 00:26:13.740 --> 00:26:16.200 We treat the solar system like a solved equation. 00:26:16.339 --> 00:26:18.799 Right, like we have it all figured out. But the 00:26:18.799 --> 00:26:21.779 phenomenon of lost minor planets proves that 00:26:21.779 --> 00:26:24.119 chaos theory is the true ruler of the universe. 00:26:25.059 --> 00:26:27.619 If a microscopic gas leak on a piece of space 00:26:27.619 --> 00:26:30.400 trash or a slight gravitational nudge from a 00:26:30.400 --> 00:26:33.240 passing moon can permanently erase our ability 00:26:33.240 --> 00:26:37.460 to track a massive object, it suggests that the 00:26:37.460 --> 00:26:40.259 universe is fundamentally unpredictable. Perhaps 00:26:40.259 --> 00:26:42.980 the idea of a perfectly mapped solar system is 00:26:42.980 --> 00:26:45.970 the biggest astronomical myth of all. the cosmos 00:26:45.970 --> 00:26:48.549 might just be inherently beautifully unknowable. 00:26:48.690 --> 00:26:50.470 But wait, think about this. We've spent this 00:26:50.470 --> 00:26:53.069 entire deep dive talking about the hundreds of 00:26:53.069 --> 00:26:55.109 thousands of minor planets we know we've lost. 00:26:55.390 --> 00:26:58.490 But based on how easily a tiny gravitational 00:26:58.490 --> 00:27:02.109 tug or a three -day observation window can hide 00:27:02.109 --> 00:27:06.349 a 600 -meter rock for a century. I see where 00:27:06.349 --> 00:27:08.809 you're going with this. How many massive objects 00:27:08.809 --> 00:27:10.609 are weaving through our solar system right now 00:27:10.609 --> 00:27:12.730 that we haven't even found once yet? That is 00:27:12.730 --> 00:27:15.700 the real question. Well, on that slightly terrifying, 00:27:15.920 --> 00:27:17.720 awe -inspiring note, we're going to wrap up. 00:27:17.900 --> 00:27:20.140 Thank you for joining us on this deep dive. Whether 00:27:20.140 --> 00:27:22.799 you're hunting for your lost car keys today or 00:27:22.799 --> 00:27:25.160 just staring up at the night sky, keep looking 00:27:25.160 --> 00:27:27.279 up. You never know what you might find or what 00:27:27.279 --> 00:27:28.539 might be hiding right above you.