WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.899 Picture this, you're standing in the dusty, sun 00:00:03.899 --> 00:00:06.860 -baked streets of ancient Athens. Okay, I'm picturing 00:00:06.860 --> 00:00:09.400 it. It's the middle of the day, broad daylight, 00:00:09.720 --> 00:00:12.859 and walking towards you is the philosopher Diogenes 00:00:12.859 --> 00:00:16.660 of Sinope. Right. But he's doing something incredibly 00:00:16.660 --> 00:00:19.079 strange. Very strange. He's holding up a lit 00:00:19.079 --> 00:00:21.809 lantern. I mean, in the blinding midday sun, 00:00:22.210 --> 00:00:25.070 he is shining this lamp right into people's faces 00:00:25.070 --> 00:00:27.269 as they walk by. Yeah, which is definitely going 00:00:27.269 --> 00:00:29.550 to get a reaction. Oh, absolutely. And when people 00:00:29.550 --> 00:00:31.929 inevitably ask him what on earth he's doing, 00:00:31.989 --> 00:00:33.590 he just shakes his head and says he's looking 00:00:33.590 --> 00:00:36.469 for just one honest person because he claimed 00:00:36.469 --> 00:00:38.859 he couldn't find a single one. It really is a 00:00:38.859 --> 00:00:41.859 striking image, you know, this visceral, almost 00:00:41.859 --> 00:00:44.719 theatrical demonstration of skepticism about 00:00:44.719 --> 00:00:47.039 human nature. Definitely. It immediately forces 00:00:47.039 --> 00:00:49.240 us to ask whether anyone is actually capable 00:00:49.240 --> 00:00:52.600 of complete honesty or, well, if deception is 00:00:52.600 --> 00:00:54.439 just a fundamental part of the human condition. 00:00:54.640 --> 00:00:58.460 Exactly. And today, for our deep dive into the 00:00:58.460 --> 00:01:01.320 source material, we are looking at a modern day 00:01:01.320 --> 00:01:05.959 search for that same kind of honesty, or... More 00:01:05.959 --> 00:01:07.620 accurately, we're looking at the search for people 00:01:07.620 --> 00:01:09.680 who can actually spot the dishonesty. Right, 00:01:09.799 --> 00:01:12.120 the human lie detectors. We are examining the 00:01:12.120 --> 00:01:14.319 University of California San Francisco Wizards 00:01:14.319 --> 00:01:17.620 Project. And interestingly enough, the researchers 00:01:17.620 --> 00:01:21.219 originally named it the Diogenes Project, directly 00:01:21.219 --> 00:01:23.959 after our lantern -carrying philosopher. That's 00:01:23.959 --> 00:01:26.400 a great little historical nod. Yeah. So it was 00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:28.980 led by two researchers, Paul Ekman and Maureen 00:01:28.980 --> 00:01:33.109 O'Sullivan. And the mission here is just... fascinating. 00:01:33.170 --> 00:01:35.650 It really is. We are trying to figure out if 00:01:35.650 --> 00:01:39.769 modern science actually managed to find Diogenes' 00:01:40.109 --> 00:01:43.359 honest man. or rather if they found a rare group 00:01:43.359 --> 00:01:46.219 of people who possess an almost like superhuman 00:01:46.219 --> 00:01:49.400 superpower. The ability to flawlessly spot a 00:01:49.400 --> 00:01:51.859 liar. To really understand what Ekman and O'Sullivan 00:01:51.859 --> 00:01:53.980 were looking for, we first have to define what 00:01:53.980 --> 00:01:56.280 they meant by a truth wizard. Right, because 00:01:56.280 --> 00:01:58.640 it sounds like fantasy. It does, yeah. According 00:01:58.640 --> 00:02:01.180 to the parameters of their project, a truth wizard 00:02:01.180 --> 00:02:03.459 is someone who can identify deception with an 00:02:03.459 --> 00:02:08.020 accuracy rate of at least 80%. 80%. Yeah. Now... 00:02:08.030 --> 00:02:10.710 80 % might not sound like absolute perfection, 00:02:11.229 --> 00:02:13.830 and the project notes that no truth wizard was 00:02:13.830 --> 00:02:16.949 ever 100 % accurate on every single test. Yeah, 00:02:17.050 --> 00:02:19.770 nobody's perfect. But the term wizard is used 00:02:19.770 --> 00:02:23.129 intentionally here to denote a person of amazing 00:02:23.129 --> 00:02:26.550 statistical outlier skill. you have to compare 00:02:26.550 --> 00:02:30.129 that 80 % to the baseline of the general population. 00:02:30.310 --> 00:02:32.689 Right, the average person. Exactly. The average 00:02:32.689 --> 00:02:36.330 person sits at a mere 50 % accuracy rate when 00:02:36.330 --> 00:02:38.629 trying to tell if someone is lying. Let's put 00:02:38.629 --> 00:02:40.669 that in perspective for you listening right now. 00:02:41.110 --> 00:02:43.090 If you think you have a great gut instinct when 00:02:43.090 --> 00:02:45.050 your teenager tells you they finished their homework 00:02:45.050 --> 00:02:48.539 or When a salesperson tells you this is their 00:02:48.539 --> 00:02:50.960 absolute lowest price. Which they always do. 00:02:51.419 --> 00:02:53.819 Right? Mathematically, you would be just as successful 00:02:53.819 --> 00:02:56.939 if you flipped a quarter. 50 % is quite literally 00:02:56.939 --> 00:02:59.939 a coin toss. It's totally random chance. So if 00:02:59.939 --> 00:03:02.120 the average person is essentially flipping a 00:03:02.120 --> 00:03:05.960 coin when trying to spot a lie, an 80 % success 00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:08.199 rate isn't just a slight improvement. Not at 00:03:08.199 --> 00:03:11.539 all. It's like a baseball player batting .800 00:03:11.539 --> 00:03:16.360 for an entire season. It is statistically superhuman. 00:03:16.490 --> 00:03:19.409 That's a great way to look at it. To hit 80 % 00:03:19.409 --> 00:03:22.150 consistently across multiple controlled tests, 00:03:23.229 --> 00:03:25.509 you aren't just guessing well. You're doing something 00:03:25.509 --> 00:03:27.330 fundamentally different than the rest of the 00:03:27.330 --> 00:03:29.930 population. And the sheer scale of the effort 00:03:29.930 --> 00:03:32.229 required to actually locate these individuals 00:03:32.229 --> 00:03:34.509 is staggering. I mean, how do you even find them? 00:03:34.639 --> 00:03:37.379 Well, Maureen O'Sullivan spent more than 20 years 00:03:37.379 --> 00:03:40.520 studying the science of lying and deceit. Two 00:03:40.520 --> 00:03:44.039 decades. Two entire decades dedicated to showing 00:03:44.039 --> 00:03:46.879 people video clips of individuals either lying 00:03:46.879 --> 00:03:49.379 or telling the truth, usually about strongly 00:03:49.379 --> 00:03:53.030 held opinions or like... taking money and recording 00:03:53.030 --> 00:03:55.129 who could actually spot the deception. That's 00:03:55.129 --> 00:03:57.189 a lot of videotapes. When we look at the data 00:03:57.189 --> 00:04:00.370 from the Wizards Project, they tested 20 ,000 00:04:00.370 --> 00:04:03.270 people from all walks of life. 20 ,000 people. 00:04:03.389 --> 00:04:05.930 And out of that massive pool, they identified 00:04:05.930 --> 00:04:08.430 only 50 individuals who met the criteria to be 00:04:08.430 --> 00:04:10.930 called truth wizards. 50 out of 20 ,000. Yep. 00:04:11.189 --> 00:04:15.069 That is roughly 0 .25 % of the population tested. 00:04:15.349 --> 00:04:17.959 A tiny fraction. And what I found so compelling 00:04:17.959 --> 00:04:21.459 in the sources was the breakdown of exactly who 00:04:21.459 --> 00:04:24.180 they were testing to find those 50 people. Because 00:04:24.180 --> 00:04:26.060 they weren't just random people. Right. They 00:04:26.060 --> 00:04:28.000 didn't just grab folks off the street or run 00:04:28.000 --> 00:04:30.540 standard college campus trials. They went to 00:04:30.540 --> 00:04:32.980 the professionals. The people whose jobs rely 00:04:32.980 --> 00:04:35.579 on this. Exactly. They tested the Secret Service, 00:04:35.720 --> 00:04:38.620 the FBI, sheriffs, police officers, attorneys, 00:04:39.160 --> 00:04:42.660 arbitrators, cynical psychologists and college 00:04:42.660 --> 00:04:45.060 students. Which completely upends the assumptions 00:04:45.060 --> 00:04:47.389 we typically make. about professional expertise. 00:04:47.509 --> 00:04:49.970 Oh, totally. We assume that if your job involves 00:04:49.970 --> 00:04:52.230 interacting with the human psyche or interrogating 00:04:52.230 --> 00:04:55.509 suspects, you naturally develop a radar for deception. 00:04:55.730 --> 00:04:57.670 Okay, let's unpack this because the demographic 00:04:57.670 --> 00:05:00.889 results are shocking. They really are. You would 00:05:00.889 --> 00:05:02.769 think that people who spend their lives study 00:05:02.769 --> 00:05:05.829 the human mind would be off the charts, but the 00:05:05.829 --> 00:05:09.009 source material explicitly states that psychiatrists 00:05:09.009 --> 00:05:11.790 and law enforcement personnel showed no more 00:05:11.790 --> 00:05:15.290 aptitude than college freshmen. It's wild. Let 00:05:15.290 --> 00:05:18.529 that sink in. A freshman who just moved into 00:05:18.529 --> 00:05:21.870 a dorm has the exact same lie detecting ability 00:05:21.870 --> 00:05:24.329 as a highly trained psychiatrist. Yeah, the data 00:05:24.329 --> 00:05:27.149 doesn't lie. But then on the flip side, Secret 00:05:27.149 --> 00:05:30.029 Service agents emerged as the most skilled group 00:05:30.029 --> 00:05:33.110 overall. Right. It is like finding out professional 00:05:33.110 --> 00:05:35.939 food critics. have the exact same palette as 00:05:35.939 --> 00:05:38.779 a toddler, while the restaurant's security guard 00:05:38.779 --> 00:05:41.519 is a master sommelier. That's a perfect analogy. 00:05:41.819 --> 00:05:44.420 Why would someone highly trained in the intricacies 00:05:44.420 --> 00:05:47.759 of the human mind, like a psychiatrist, fail 00:05:47.759 --> 00:05:52.100 to beat a college freshman? Well, it seems counterintuitive 00:05:52.100 --> 00:05:54.759 until we look at the fundamental framework of 00:05:54.759 --> 00:05:57.459 what those professions actually demand. OK, what 00:05:57.459 --> 00:05:59.600 do you mean? Think about a psychiatrist's job. 00:05:59.879 --> 00:06:02.250 Their goal is therapeutic. To help a patient, 00:06:02.569 --> 00:06:04.709 a psychiatrist often operates from a baseline 00:06:04.709 --> 00:06:06.649 of clinical trust. Oh, that makes sense. They 00:06:06.649 --> 00:06:09.410 want to believe them. Exactly. They have to accept 00:06:09.410 --> 00:06:12.009 the patient's reality, at least initially, to 00:06:12.009 --> 00:06:14.350 build a rapport, explore their feelings, and, 00:06:14.350 --> 00:06:16.410 you know, provide treatment. Right. They are 00:06:16.410 --> 00:06:18.810 not sitting in an armchair, constantly scanning 00:06:18.810 --> 00:06:21.069 their patients for malicious deception. That 00:06:21.069 --> 00:06:23.110 would probably make for terrible therapy. Now, 00:06:23.209 --> 00:06:25.500 contrast that with the Secret Service. Their 00:06:25.500 --> 00:06:29.439 entire operational paradigm relies on hyper vigilance. 00:06:29.819 --> 00:06:31.819 Because the stakes are life and death. Right. 00:06:32.079 --> 00:06:35.079 They are trained to constantly scan environments 00:06:35.079 --> 00:06:38.019 for threats, anomalies, and things that just 00:06:38.019 --> 00:06:40.980 don't fit the baseline. They operate from a baseline 00:06:40.980 --> 00:06:43.300 of suspicion because missing a subtle cue in 00:06:43.300 --> 00:06:45.939 a crowd could be catastrophic. So it's about 00:06:45.939 --> 00:06:48.540 what you're practicing every day. Exactly. The 00:06:48.540 --> 00:06:51.079 environment you operate in dictates the mental 00:06:51.079 --> 00:06:53.949 muscles you develop. So if a Secret Service agent 00:06:53.949 --> 00:06:56.569 is operating with that hypervigilant mindset, 00:06:57.629 --> 00:06:59.569 what exactly are they scanning for? That's the 00:06:59.569 --> 00:07:01.569 big question. Are they just looking for the classic 00:07:01.569 --> 00:07:03.430 cliches? We've all been told that if someone 00:07:03.430 --> 00:07:07.750 looks up to left or if they cover their mouth, 00:07:07.889 --> 00:07:09.829 they're lying. Right, the classic poker tills. 00:07:10.589 --> 00:07:14.310 But it can't be that simple if only 0 .25 % of 00:07:14.310 --> 00:07:16.529 people are pulling this off. You've hit on the 00:07:16.529 --> 00:07:19.290 biggest myth in lie detection. The methodology 00:07:19.290 --> 00:07:21.889 of a wizard is where the science gets incredibly 00:07:21.889 --> 00:07:24.509 granular. And the first thing the research reveals 00:07:24.509 --> 00:07:27.329 is that these truth wizards do not rely on a 00:07:27.329 --> 00:07:30.610 single, isolated tell. So there's no magic bullet. 00:07:30.839 --> 00:07:34.180 There is no Pinocchio's nose. They aren't waiting 00:07:34.180 --> 00:07:37.079 for a specific blink rate or a stutter. What 00:07:37.079 --> 00:07:39.819 they are actually doing is spotting incongruence. 00:07:40.079 --> 00:07:42.579 Incongruence. Meaning things not matching up. 00:07:42.779 --> 00:07:45.660 Exactly. They are looking for behavioral mismatches 00:07:45.660 --> 00:07:48.040 between what a person is saying and what their 00:07:48.040 --> 00:07:50.899 body is doing. I'm guessing this is where Ekman's 00:07:50.899 --> 00:07:53.060 famous research into micro -expressions comes 00:07:53.060 --> 00:07:55.560 into play. Those tiny little facial twitches. 00:07:55.939 --> 00:07:58.740 Precisely. Micro -expressions are involuntary 00:07:58.740 --> 00:08:01.110 facial movements that happen in a fraction of 00:08:01.110 --> 00:08:03.569 a second. How fast are we talking? Sometimes 00:08:03.569 --> 00:08:06.709 as fast as 1 25th of a second. Wow, that is incredibly 00:08:06.709 --> 00:08:08.910 fast. It is. They happen when a person is trying 00:08:08.910 --> 00:08:11.970 to conceal an emotion. So a wizard might hear 00:08:11.970 --> 00:08:13.870 a suspect saying how sad they are about a missing 00:08:13.870 --> 00:08:16.709 person. But for a fraction of a second, the muscles 00:08:16.709 --> 00:08:18.910 around their mouth might pull into a one -sided 00:08:18.910 --> 00:08:22.790 smirk. Like a tiny slip of the mask. Right. Revealing 00:08:22.790 --> 00:08:27.670 concealed contempt or duping delight. The wizards 00:08:27.670 --> 00:08:30.689 are processing these micro -expressions and rapidly 00:08:30.689 --> 00:08:32.750 cross -referencing them with the person's tone 00:08:32.750 --> 00:08:34.970 of voice, their posture, and their word choice. 00:08:35.330 --> 00:08:37.710 So, instead of looking for a single tell, like 00:08:37.710 --> 00:08:40.169 a blinking light, it sounds like they're listening 00:08:40.169 --> 00:08:43.110 to a whole symphony orchestra. And they possess 00:08:43.110 --> 00:08:47.230 this rare ability to notice when just one single 00:08:47.230 --> 00:08:49.950 instrument plays slightly out of tune. That's 00:08:49.950 --> 00:08:52.029 a really beautiful way to put it. I want to read 00:08:52.029 --> 00:08:53.970 a direct quote from Maureen O'Sullivan from the 00:08:53.970 --> 00:08:56.690 sources, because it illustrates the sheer processing 00:08:56.690 --> 00:08:58.909 speed required to listen to that orchestra. Go 00:08:58.909 --> 00:09:01.490 for it. She said, our wizards are extraordinarily 00:09:01.490 --> 00:09:04.090 attuned to detecting the nuances of facial expressions, 00:09:04.370 --> 00:09:06.129 body language, and ways of talking and thinking. 00:09:06.830 --> 00:09:08.870 Some of them can observe a videotape for a few 00:09:08.870 --> 00:09:11.330 seconds, and amazingly, they could describe eight 00:09:11.330 --> 00:09:14.029 details about the person on the tape. Eight details? 00:09:14.090 --> 00:09:17.330 A few seconds. And they pull eight distinct, 00:09:17.330 --> 00:09:20.350 nuanced details. It is a remarkable cognitive 00:09:20.350 --> 00:09:22.590 feat. I mean, they are taking in a massive amount 00:09:22.590 --> 00:09:25.230 of data, filtering out the noise, and identifying 00:09:25.230 --> 00:09:27.490 the mismatches almost instantaneously. That's 00:09:27.490 --> 00:09:30.549 wild. And it's precisely this kind of seemingly 00:09:30.549 --> 00:09:33.309 magical ability that caught the attention of 00:09:33.309 --> 00:09:35.909 the broader public and pop culture. Oh, definitely. 00:09:36.870 --> 00:09:39.610 Ekman's work directly inspired the Fox TV series 00:09:39.610 --> 00:09:43.610 Lie to Me, which ran from 2009 to 2011. I remember 00:09:43.610 --> 00:09:46.830 that show. Tim Roth. Yeah. And if you watch that 00:09:46.830 --> 00:09:48.929 show, you might remember the character Ria Torres. 00:09:49.669 --> 00:09:52.090 The show explicitly framed her as a natural, 00:09:52.690 --> 00:09:55.590 which is television shorthand for exactly what 00:09:55.590 --> 00:09:58.490 Ekman and O'Sullivan called a truth wizard. Right, 00:09:58.549 --> 00:10:01.210 the person who just has the gift. And Ekman himself 00:10:01.210 --> 00:10:04.549 leaned heavily into this framing. In an NPR interview, 00:10:04.629 --> 00:10:07.049 he actually called these individuals the Mozart's 00:10:07.049 --> 00:10:10.169 of lie detection. Mozart's. That's a strong comparison. 00:10:10.309 --> 00:10:11.929 He posed the question of whether they learned 00:10:11.929 --> 00:10:14.740 this skill or if they just had it natively. the 00:10:14.740 --> 00:10:17.139 way Mozart seemingly had a native genius for 00:10:17.139 --> 00:10:20.740 music. That NTR interview highlights a very interesting 00:10:20.740 --> 00:10:23.039 duality in the project's findings. What do you 00:10:23.039 --> 00:10:26.279 mean? On one hand, Ekman explicitly points out 00:10:26.279 --> 00:10:28.360 that the phenomenal success rate of these truth 00:10:28.360 --> 00:10:31.120 wizards is achieved without any specialized training. 00:10:31.299 --> 00:10:33.580 Right, they're naturals. They are described as 00:10:33.580 --> 00:10:37.039 naturals. Yet, simultaneously, Ekman claims that 00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:39.759 the components of this skill, specifically the 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:42.139 detection of micro -expressions, can be taught 00:10:42.139 --> 00:10:45.299 to the average person. Wait. Really? Yeah. In 00:10:45.299 --> 00:10:47.659 fact, he released a training CD designed to do 00:10:47.659 --> 00:10:49.940 exactly that. Wait, I have to jump in and push 00:10:49.940 --> 00:10:52.039 back on this. Let's hear it. How can he call 00:10:52.039 --> 00:10:55.259 them the Mozart's of lie detection and explicitly 00:10:55.259 --> 00:10:57.259 note they achieved these incredible hit rates 00:10:57.259 --> 00:10:59.960 without any specialized training, but then turn 00:10:59.960 --> 00:11:02.779 around and claim he can sell a CD that trains 00:11:02.779 --> 00:11:05.580 anyone to do it? It sounds contradictory, doesn't 00:11:05.580 --> 00:11:08.360 it? You cannot just buy a CD and learn to compose 00:11:08.360 --> 00:11:11.019 a symphony like Mozart. You can't commercialize 00:11:11.019 --> 00:11:13.700 innate genius. That feels like a massive contradiction 00:11:13.700 --> 00:11:16.159 in the source material. It is a tension that 00:11:16.159 --> 00:11:18.379 strikes right at the heart of the debate over 00:11:18.379 --> 00:11:21.480 innate talent versus learnable skills in psychology. 00:11:21.620 --> 00:11:24.429 So how does he justify the CD? What Eggman essentially 00:11:24.429 --> 00:11:28.149 argues to bridge that gap is that while the holistic 00:11:28.149 --> 00:11:31.049 ability, that seamless, rapid integration of 00:11:31.049 --> 00:11:33.269 body language, speech, and micro -expressions 00:11:33.269 --> 00:11:36.950 all at once, might be a rare, innate talent like 00:11:36.950 --> 00:11:40.470 Mozart's musical genius, the individual components 00:11:40.470 --> 00:11:43.309 of that ability can still be isolated and taught. 00:11:43.590 --> 00:11:45.730 OK, I think I follow. Think about returning to 00:11:45.730 --> 00:11:48.299 your orchestra analogy. Not everyone can be a 00:11:48.299 --> 00:11:50.500 world -class conductor, but almost anyone can 00:11:50.500 --> 00:11:52.940 be taught to recognize the sound of a violin 00:11:52.940 --> 00:11:55.919 versus a cello. Ah, okay. The CD is designed 00:11:55.919 --> 00:11:58.039 to teach you how to spot the violin, the micro 00:11:58.039 --> 00:12:00.759 -expressions. It's just one element the wizards 00:12:00.759 --> 00:12:03.240 use. But does spotting the violin make you a 00:12:03.240 --> 00:12:05.919 world -class conductor? Exactly. Whether learning 00:12:05.919 --> 00:12:08.600 that one element actually elevates a normal person 00:12:08.600 --> 00:12:11.019 to the level of a wizard is where the scientific 00:12:11.019 --> 00:12:13.519 community started to raise red flags. Because 00:12:13.519 --> 00:12:15.879 whenever you make bold claims about identifying 00:12:15.879 --> 00:12:19.139 a human superpower and then start commercializing 00:12:19.139 --> 00:12:22.059 the training for a piece of it, you are practically 00:12:22.059 --> 00:12:24.679 begging for heavy scientific scrutiny. You are 00:12:24.679 --> 00:12:26.980 painting a target on your back. You can't just 00:12:26.980 --> 00:12:30.240 claim to have found human polygraphs without 00:12:30.240 --> 00:12:32.500 someone checking your math. And the scrutiny 00:12:32.500 --> 00:12:35.460 came heavily from psychologists Charles F. Bond 00:12:35.460 --> 00:12:38.940 and Ahmet Yuzal at Texas Christian University. 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:41.820 What did they find? They took a hard look at 00:12:41.820 --> 00:12:44.379 the methodology Ekman and O'Sullivan were using 00:12:44.379 --> 00:12:47.879 and they were incredibly critical. Their primary 00:12:47.879 --> 00:12:51.620 argument was that the performance of these supposed 00:12:51.620 --> 00:12:56.220 truth wizards was essentially statistical illusion. 00:12:56.379 --> 00:12:59.539 Illusion. Yeah. In statistics this is known as 00:12:59.539 --> 00:13:03.259 a type I error, a false positive. Let me break 00:13:03.259 --> 00:13:05.299 down the skeptics argument here, because it makes 00:13:05.299 --> 00:13:07.620 a lot of intuitive sense. Go for it. If you have 00:13:07.620 --> 00:13:10.460 20 ,000 people flip a coin, eventually someone's 00:13:10.460 --> 00:13:12.940 going to flip heads 20 times in a row just by 00:13:12.940 --> 00:13:15.860 pure unadulterated luck. Exactly. Just the law 00:13:15.860 --> 00:13:18.059 of averages. It doesn't mean they have a magical 00:13:18.059 --> 00:13:20.019 psychic connection to the coin. It is just the 00:13:20.019 --> 00:13:23.080 law of large numbers. Bond and Usal are basically 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:25.679 saying, you tested 20 ,000 people. Of course, 00:13:25.779 --> 00:13:28.039 you found 50 people who scored over 80%. Right. 00:13:28.240 --> 00:13:30.909 If you test enough people on anything, Eventually, 00:13:31.070 --> 00:13:33.470 someone will ace it by chance. That is just statistical 00:13:33.470 --> 00:13:36.580 noise. That captures their critique perfectly. 00:13:37.179 --> 00:13:40.059 They concluded quite boldly that convincing evidence 00:13:40.059 --> 00:13:43.059 of lie detection wizardry has never been presented. 00:13:43.419 --> 00:13:45.519 Ouch. Furthermore, they criticized the original 00:13:45.519 --> 00:13:49.019 researchers for not fully publishing their methodological 00:13:49.019 --> 00:13:51.399 techniques and specific results for peer review. 00:13:51.580 --> 00:13:53.679 That's a big no -no in science. And they also 00:13:53.679 --> 00:13:55.600 pointed out that the testing procedures didn't 00:13:55.600 --> 00:13:58.580 meet the rigorous standards of classical psychometric 00:13:58.580 --> 00:14:01.379 theory. Which means, what exactly, in plain English? 00:14:01.549 --> 00:14:04.090 It means the tests weren't built in a way that 00:14:04.090 --> 00:14:07.529 reliably proves these people had an actual repeatable 00:14:07.529 --> 00:14:10.669 skill rather than just a streak of incredibly 00:14:10.669 --> 00:14:13.590 good luck. So the test itself was flawed? According 00:14:13.590 --> 00:14:16.730 to them, yes. In classical psychometric theory, 00:14:16.929 --> 00:14:19.659 a test has to be reliable and valid. Bond and 00:14:19.659 --> 00:14:22.179 Usul argued, we don't know if the video clips 00:14:22.179 --> 00:14:24.659 Ekman used were standardized. Like, were some 00:14:24.659 --> 00:14:27.320 clips easier than others? Exactly. Were some 00:14:27.320 --> 00:14:30.179 lies just easier to spot? Were the stakes for 00:14:30.179 --> 00:14:32.240 the people lying in the videos high enough to 00:14:32.240 --> 00:14:35.139 generate real micro -expressions? Because lying 00:14:35.139 --> 00:14:37.590 about what you had for breakfast isn't the same 00:14:37.590 --> 00:14:40.570 as lying to avoid jail time. Right. In science, 00:14:40.769 --> 00:14:43.230 if you can't show exactly how your test separates 00:14:43.230 --> 00:14:46.389 genuine skill from random chance, your conclusions 00:14:46.389 --> 00:14:48.889 will be heavily contested. Did Ekman respond? 00:14:49.490 --> 00:14:52.149 O'Sullivan, Ekman, and their colleague Mark Frank 00:14:52.149 --> 00:14:55.029 did publish responses defending their scoring 00:14:55.029 --> 00:14:58.090 and reporting, but this shadow of doubt was definitely 00:14:58.090 --> 00:15:00.850 cast. The only way to truly settle a debate like 00:15:00.850 --> 00:15:03.570 this in science is through replication. Which 00:15:03.570 --> 00:15:05.610 brings us to an incredible twist in the story. 00:15:05.730 --> 00:15:08.970 It really is. Gary D. Bond, a researcher from 00:15:08.970 --> 00:15:12.169 Winston -Salem State University, decided to replicate 00:15:12.169 --> 00:15:15.379 the experiment. But he used a much more rigorous 00:15:15.379 --> 00:15:18.320 protocol to avoid the very criticisms levied 00:15:18.320 --> 00:15:20.700 against the original project. He wanted bulletproof 00:15:20.700 --> 00:15:22.840 conditions. He wanted to see if the phenomena 00:15:22.840 --> 00:15:25.419 held up when the testing conditions were, you 00:15:25.419 --> 00:15:28.259 know, flawless. And he didn't test 20 ,000 people, 00:15:28.279 --> 00:15:31.620 though. He tested a much smaller pool, just 112 00:15:31.620 --> 00:15:35.220 law enforcement officers and 122 undergraduate 00:15:35.220 --> 00:15:39.279 students. So 234 people total? Right. Out of 00:15:39.279 --> 00:15:43.980 that group of 234 people. He found exactly two 00:15:43.980 --> 00:15:46.740 individuals who were exceptionally fast and accurate 00:15:46.740 --> 00:15:49.840 at lie detection. Two people. Two. A result, 00:15:50.360 --> 00:15:52.379 the source notes is actually consistent with 00:15:52.379 --> 00:15:54.700 Ekman and O'Sullivan's baseline findings of how 00:15:54.700 --> 00:15:57.080 rare this is. But here's where it gets really 00:15:57.080 --> 00:15:59.580 interesting. Who were they? The crazy part is 00:15:59.580 --> 00:16:02.820 who those two people were. Out of all the cops, 00:16:03.139 --> 00:16:05.120 all the investigators, and all the students, 00:16:05.919 --> 00:16:09.720 the only two experts were both female... Native 00:16:09.720 --> 00:16:12.299 American correctional officers working for the 00:16:12.299 --> 00:16:16.179 Bureau of Indian Affairs. Wow. Yeah. It is incredibly 00:16:16.179 --> 00:16:18.500 specific and fascinating demographic finding. 00:16:18.669 --> 00:16:22.190 And precisely because this replication used a 00:16:22.190 --> 00:16:25.169 much more rigorous protocol, it lends significant 00:16:25.169 --> 00:16:27.230 weight to the idea that this phenomenon is not 00:16:27.230 --> 00:16:29.590 just a statistical coin flip. Because the pool 00:16:29.590 --> 00:16:31.990 is so much smaller. Exactly. If it were purely 00:16:31.990 --> 00:16:35.210 chance, finding two experts in a pool of only 00:16:35.210 --> 00:16:38.070 234 people is statistically much less likely 00:16:38.070 --> 00:16:40.490 than finding 50 in a massive pool of 20 ,000. 00:16:40.649 --> 00:16:43.429 But does finding those two BIA officers actually 00:16:43.429 --> 00:16:46.809 validate the theory that wizards exist? Or did 00:16:46.809 --> 00:16:49.169 lightning just happen to strike twice in a smaller 00:16:49.169 --> 00:16:51.789 pool? It's the multi -million dollar question. 00:16:51.870 --> 00:16:54.769 I mean, what is it about being a female Native 00:16:54.769 --> 00:16:57.090 American correctional officer for the Bureau 00:16:57.090 --> 00:16:59.990 of Indian Affairs that would forge someone into 00:16:59.990 --> 00:17:02.250 a truth wizard? This is where we have to look 00:17:02.250 --> 00:17:05.400 at the intersection of environment culture, and 00:17:05.400 --> 00:17:08.500 high stakes communication. The sources suggest 00:17:08.500 --> 00:17:10.799 there might be environmental or cultural factors 00:17:10.799 --> 00:17:13.819 that hone these observational skills to a razor's 00:17:13.819 --> 00:17:16.160 edge. OK, tell me more. Think about the layers 00:17:16.160 --> 00:17:18.720 of that specific job. First, you have the environment 00:17:18.720 --> 00:17:20.940 of a correctional facility. The baseline there 00:17:20.940 --> 00:17:24.000 is deception. Right. Inmates frequently use manipulation 00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:27.099 to navigate the prison hierarchy, secure contraband, 00:17:27.500 --> 00:17:31.049 or gain privileges. If you are an officer, your 00:17:31.049 --> 00:17:32.930 physical safety depends on your ability to read 00:17:32.930 --> 00:17:35.549 the room and spot incongruence before a situation 00:17:35.549 --> 00:17:37.769 escalates. So they share that hypervigilance 00:17:37.769 --> 00:17:39.690 we talked about with the Secret Service. Precisely. 00:17:39.789 --> 00:17:42.009 But there are thousands of correctional officers 00:17:42.009 --> 00:17:45.190 across the country. Why these two women specifically? 00:17:45.420 --> 00:17:48.000 Well, we have to consider the nuances of cross 00:17:48.000 --> 00:17:51.140 -cultural communication and power dynamics. As 00:17:51.140 --> 00:17:53.220 Native American women working in law enforcement, 00:17:53.319 --> 00:17:57.039 they are navigating incredibly complex jurisdictional, 00:17:57.220 --> 00:17:59.440 cultural, and institutional layers. That makes 00:17:59.440 --> 00:18:01.480 a lot of sense. Historically and practically, 00:18:01.859 --> 00:18:04.200 marginalized groups often have to develop a heightened 00:18:04.200 --> 00:18:06.980 situational awareness just to navigate dominant 00:18:06.980 --> 00:18:10.279 power structures safely. You have to learn to 00:18:10.279 --> 00:18:13.240 read the subtle, nonverbal cues of the people 00:18:13.240 --> 00:18:16.190 and power around you. Survival. Right. Furthermore, 00:18:16.549 --> 00:18:18.609 many indigenous cultures place a heavy emphasis 00:18:18.609 --> 00:18:21.230 on non -verbal communication, listening, and 00:18:21.230 --> 00:18:23.609 observing rather than just prioritizing a spoken 00:18:23.609 --> 00:18:26.829 word. Wow. When you combine a cultural attunement 00:18:26.829 --> 00:18:29.430 to non -verbal cues, the necessity of reading 00:18:29.430 --> 00:18:32.390 power dynamics as a minority woman, and the life 00:18:32.390 --> 00:18:35.170 or death stakes of a correctional facility, you 00:18:35.170 --> 00:18:37.390 create an environment that acts as a pressure 00:18:37.390 --> 00:18:39.650 cooker for this specific skill. It's the perfect 00:18:39.650 --> 00:18:42.069 storm. It moves the needle away from a statistical 00:18:42.069 --> 00:18:44.769 fluke and strongly points toward a high specialized 00:18:44.769 --> 00:18:47.730 human adaptation. That completely changes how 00:18:47.730 --> 00:18:51.009 we should look at this. It is not magic. It is 00:18:51.009 --> 00:18:53.849 a profound survival mechanism. It's human nature 00:18:53.849 --> 00:18:56.289 adapting. So what does this all mean for you 00:18:56.289 --> 00:18:58.750 listening to this deep dive? Think about the 00:18:58.750 --> 00:19:01.230 people you interact with daily. The co -workers 00:19:01.230 --> 00:19:03.509 pitching an idea, the acquaintance telling a 00:19:03.509 --> 00:19:05.410 story at a party or, you know, someone trying 00:19:05.410 --> 00:19:08.309 to sell you a car. Everyday interactions. The 00:19:08.309 --> 00:19:11.210 hard data shows that the average person is only 00:19:11.210 --> 00:19:14.369 right 50 % of the time when spotting a lie. You 00:19:14.369 --> 00:19:17.130 might think you have a great radar, but statistically 00:19:17.130 --> 00:19:20.450 you are just flipping a coin. Sad but true. The 00:19:20.450 --> 00:19:22.650 biggest takeaway from the Wizards Project is 00:19:22.650 --> 00:19:25.009 that we need to stop looking for that one single 00:19:25.009 --> 00:19:27.890 cliché tell. Stop thinking that just because 00:19:27.890 --> 00:19:30.390 someone breaks eye contact or stammers for a 00:19:30.390 --> 00:19:32.849 second or shifts their weight, they're automatically 00:19:32.849 --> 00:19:35.069 lying to you. It's just not that simple. Human 00:19:35.069 --> 00:19:37.829 behavior is way too complex for that. True experts 00:19:37.829 --> 00:19:42.190 that rare 0 .25 % don't look at one thing. They 00:19:42.190 --> 00:19:45.710 process a complex rapid -fire web of micro -expressions 00:19:45.710 --> 00:19:48.529 and behavioral mismatches across the entire body 00:19:48.529 --> 00:19:50.730 and voice. They listen to the whole orchestra. 00:19:50.920 --> 00:19:53.019 Exactly. They listen to the whole orchestra. 00:19:53.299 --> 00:19:55.559 I want to leave you with one final thought to 00:19:55.559 --> 00:19:58.559 mull over, building on the context of those BIA 00:19:58.559 --> 00:20:01.140 officers. Let's hear it. The source material 00:20:01.140 --> 00:20:04.019 repeatedly notes a very specific phrase regarding 00:20:04.019 --> 00:20:06.619 these truth wizards. It states they achieved 00:20:06.619 --> 00:20:09.640 this astounding success rate without any specialized 00:20:09.640 --> 00:20:13.160 training and that they are extraordinarily attuned. 00:20:13.259 --> 00:20:15.859 Right, that natural ability. So if these incredibly 00:20:15.859 --> 00:20:18.380 rare individuals didn't learn this in a classroom 00:20:18.380 --> 00:20:21.269 or from a CD, where did they learn it? That's 00:20:21.269 --> 00:20:24.349 the real question. What kind of unique life experiences, 00:20:24.670 --> 00:20:27.269 high -stakes environments, or even hidden personal 00:20:27.269 --> 00:20:30.930 histories might force a person to develop this 00:20:30.930 --> 00:20:33.829 kind of natural hypervigilant radar for deception 00:20:33.829 --> 00:20:36.670 just to navigate the world safely? It makes you 00:20:36.670 --> 00:20:39.269 wonder. Maybe Diogenes wasn't looking in the 00:20:39.269 --> 00:20:41.289 wrong places with his lantern after all. Maybe 00:20:41.289 --> 00:20:43.630 he just didn't know exactly what to look for 00:20:43.630 --> 00:20:44.630 in the flicker of the light.