WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.580 Imagine forming a political coalition, taking 00:00:03.580 --> 00:00:05.700 to the streets to spark this massive nationwide 00:00:05.700 --> 00:00:08.279 revolution, completely overtuning the establishment. 00:00:08.480 --> 00:00:11.279 And then the very moment you actually win, you 00:00:11.279 --> 00:00:13.080 just immediately break up your alliance. Right. 00:00:13.179 --> 00:00:15.619 It sounds totally made up. Exactly. I mean, if 00:00:15.619 --> 00:00:17.699 you saw that in a movie, you'd think the scriptwriter 00:00:17.699 --> 00:00:19.839 just got bored halfway through a political thriller. 00:00:19.960 --> 00:00:21.420 Yeah, they just didn't know how to end the third 00:00:21.420 --> 00:00:25.519 act. Right. But today we are looking at a real 00:00:25.519 --> 00:00:29.300 political supergroup that did exactly that. from 00:00:29.300 --> 00:00:33.119 formation to dissolution in under two years. 00:00:33.960 --> 00:00:36.159 So welcome to the deep dive. Glad to be here. 00:00:36.520 --> 00:00:39.659 Today we are examining a single really detailed 00:00:39.659 --> 00:00:43.560 historical source that maps out the Way Out Alliance, 00:00:44.420 --> 00:00:46.880 which is also known as the Yelk Dashing. It was 00:00:46.880 --> 00:00:49.539 a short -lived but massively impactful coalition 00:00:49.539 --> 00:00:52.679 in modern Armenian history. It really is an absolutely 00:00:52.679 --> 00:00:55.399 perfect case study in, you know, political momentum 00:00:55.399 --> 00:00:57.619 because the source material we have gives us 00:00:57.619 --> 00:01:00.700 the complete lightning -fast life cycle of this 00:01:00.700 --> 00:01:02.859 coalition. It's like having a friend who reads 00:01:02.859 --> 00:01:04.980 the political spark notes for you but actually 00:01:04.980 --> 00:01:07.640 makes the drama interesting. Exactly. We are 00:01:07.640 --> 00:01:10.280 going to explore how they pulled this off, what 00:01:10.280 --> 00:01:13.799 it teaches us about political strategy, and why 00:01:13.799 --> 00:01:17.079 victory sometimes destroys the very coalitions 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:19.040 that made it possible in the first place. But 00:01:19.040 --> 00:01:20.859 before we get into the mechanics of all that, 00:01:21.159 --> 00:01:24.099 we do need to establish a quick ground rule based 00:01:24.099 --> 00:01:26.159 on the text we're working with. Let's set the 00:01:26.159 --> 00:01:28.040 table. Right. This is important. So the source 00:01:28.040 --> 00:01:31.519 material explicitly cites terms like anti -Russian 00:01:31.519 --> 00:01:35.099 sentiment, pro -Europeanism, and Armenian civic 00:01:35.099 --> 00:01:38.310 nationalism. as the foundational bedrock of this 00:01:38.310 --> 00:01:40.930 alliance's platform. So I want to be entirely 00:01:40.930 --> 00:01:43.900 clear with you, the listener. We are strictly 00:01:43.900 --> 00:01:46.719 analyzing these positions as they exist in the 00:01:46.719 --> 00:01:48.640 historical record. We are definitely not taking 00:01:48.640 --> 00:01:51.459 sides here. Exactly. We are not endorsing any 00:01:51.459 --> 00:01:53.920 geopolitical stance, whether that points east, 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:56.680 west, or anywhere in between. Our focus is purely 00:01:56.680 --> 00:01:58.859 analytical. We're just, you know, looking under 00:01:58.859 --> 00:02:00.859 the hood of this political engine to see how 00:02:00.859 --> 00:02:03.859 it ran so fast and why it ultimately dismantled 00:02:03.859 --> 00:02:05.819 itself. I'm really glad we put a pin in that, 00:02:05.819 --> 00:02:08.919 because our goal here is to dissect the strategy, 00:02:09.199 --> 00:02:11.819 not to debate the ideology. Because, I mean, 00:02:12.199 --> 00:02:14.560 If you were looking at this alliance on paper 00:02:14.560 --> 00:02:17.020 back in 2016, you would probably think it was 00:02:17.020 --> 00:02:19.919 a massive gamble. Oh, absolutely. So let's go 00:02:19.919 --> 00:02:22.680 back to the origin story. How does a coalition 00:02:22.680 --> 00:02:25.159 that ultimately reshapes a country's trajectory 00:02:25.159 --> 00:02:27.919 actually get built? I mean, they didn't just 00:02:27.919 --> 00:02:30.719 spontaneously generate out of thin air. Far from 00:02:30.719 --> 00:02:32.960 it. The Way Out Alliance officially came into 00:02:32.960 --> 00:02:36.719 existence on December 12, 2016. And... To really 00:02:36.719 --> 00:02:39.500 understand its DNA, you have to look at the three 00:02:39.500 --> 00:02:41.879 distinct political parties that decided to merge 00:02:41.879 --> 00:02:45.819 their efforts. OK. It was fundamentally a liberal 00:02:45.819 --> 00:02:49.039 political alliance. So first, you had civil contract, 00:02:49.340 --> 00:02:51.340 which was led by a rising political figure named 00:02:51.340 --> 00:02:54.159 Nikol Pashinyan. Right. Then you had bright Armenia 00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:57.419 led by Edmund Marukian. Got it. And finally, 00:02:57.520 --> 00:02:59.340 rounding out the trio, you had the Hannah Rapatuchin 00:02:59.340 --> 00:03:03.219 party, and they were led by Aram Sargsan. OK, 00:03:03.219 --> 00:03:05.400 let's unpack the weight of those names for a 00:03:05.400 --> 00:03:08.169 second. because specifically, Aram Sargsyan, 00:03:08.370 --> 00:03:10.110 the text notes, he was a former prime minister 00:03:10.110 --> 00:03:12.030 of Armenia. It was, yeah. So if we look at this 00:03:12.030 --> 00:03:15.090 like a political supergroup, you know, taking 00:03:15.090 --> 00:03:17.370 lead singers from different bands and putting 00:03:17.370 --> 00:03:20.050 them on one stage, bringing in a former prime 00:03:20.050 --> 00:03:24.590 minister. is a massive strategic play. It's huge. 00:03:24.710 --> 00:03:27.349 It takes a group of rising insurgent politicians 00:03:27.349 --> 00:03:30.569 and just instantly gives them legacy credibility. 00:03:30.750 --> 00:03:33.210 Exactly. It signals to the voters that this isn't 00:03:33.210 --> 00:03:36.509 just some fringe protest movement. There is actual 00:03:36.509 --> 00:03:38.969 executive experience in the room. Right. They've 00:03:38.969 --> 00:03:42.270 actually governed before. That is a crucial dynamic 00:03:42.270 --> 00:03:44.870 to highlight. You blend that insurgent energy 00:03:44.870 --> 00:03:47.979 with establishment weight. You know, having famous 00:03:47.979 --> 00:03:50.699 leaders sharing a stage is tough if they don't 00:03:50.699 --> 00:03:52.919 actually agree on the set list. Yep. What was 00:03:52.919 --> 00:03:54.979 the actual ideological genre they all agreed 00:03:54.979 --> 00:03:57.389 to play? Well, according to the source, the glue 00:03:57.389 --> 00:03:59.689 holding them together was liberalism combined 00:03:59.689 --> 00:04:02.110 with a very strong commitment to Armenian civic 00:04:02.110 --> 00:04:05.050 nationalism and pro -Europeanism. OK. And this 00:04:05.050 --> 00:04:07.069 was especially pronounced for bright Armenia 00:04:07.069 --> 00:04:09.370 and Henrapetudian. Let me pause you right there 00:04:09.370 --> 00:04:12.110 because civic nationalism is one of those really 00:04:12.110 --> 00:04:14.569 dense terms that gets thrown around in political 00:04:14.569 --> 00:04:16.990 science textbooks. But we need to know what it 00:04:16.990 --> 00:04:20.459 actually meant for this specific. Right, it can 00:04:20.459 --> 00:04:23.000 mean a lot of things. Yeah. How does civic nationalism 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:26.529 function as an actual political platform? In 00:04:26.529 --> 00:04:29.410 a broad analytical sense, civic nationalism focuses 00:04:29.410 --> 00:04:32.730 on shared citizenship, political values, and 00:04:32.730 --> 00:04:35.949 loyalty to the state's institutions, rather than 00:04:35.949 --> 00:04:39.189 defining the nation strictly by ethnic, ancestral, 00:04:39.290 --> 00:04:42.529 or cultural lines. When you combine that with 00:04:42.529 --> 00:04:45.310 their explicitly stated liberalism, you are basically 00:04:45.310 --> 00:04:48.790 looking at a platform focused heavily on modernizing 00:04:48.790 --> 00:04:51.350 state institutions. Shrinking democratic frameworks, 00:04:51.509 --> 00:04:53.529 that sort of thing. Exactly. And aligning the 00:04:53.529 --> 00:04:56.199 country's legal and economic systems with Western 00:04:56.199 --> 00:04:59.060 models, it's really about building a robust modern 00:04:59.060 --> 00:05:02.300 state apparatus. Right. But a theoretical philosophy 00:05:02.300 --> 00:05:04.639 about modernizing the state doesn't just win 00:05:04.639 --> 00:05:07.019 elections on its own. No, definitely not. You 00:05:07.019 --> 00:05:09.680 need a target. You need an enemy or at least 00:05:09.680 --> 00:05:12.480 a very clear grievance to rally voters around. 00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:17.120 And boy, their target was massive. What's fascinating 00:05:17.120 --> 00:05:19.699 here is how specifically targeted their foreign 00:05:19.699 --> 00:05:21.779 policy goals were right out of the gate. What 00:05:21.779 --> 00:05:24.959 was the specific grievance? Their unifying grievance 00:05:24.959 --> 00:05:28.680 was Armenia's foreign relations strategy, specifically 00:05:28.680 --> 00:05:32.160 regarding the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU. 00:05:32.740 --> 00:05:35.560 The alliance stated unequivocally that Armenia's 00:05:35.560 --> 00:05:38.920 decision to join the EAEU was a mistake. They 00:05:38.920 --> 00:05:41.620 argued it was having a demonstrably negative 00:05:41.620 --> 00:05:44.170 impact on the country's development. I want to 00:05:44.170 --> 00:05:46.769 dig into the mechanics of that, because saying 00:05:46.769 --> 00:05:49.370 we made a mistake is one thing, but did they 00:05:49.370 --> 00:05:52.050 have a fully formed alternative? They did, yeah. 00:05:52.230 --> 00:05:54.790 What was their actual pitch to the voters regarding 00:05:54.790 --> 00:05:57.660 how to fix this perceived error? They really 00:05:57.660 --> 00:06:00.600 weren't just a party of no. They proposed a highly 00:06:00.600 --> 00:06:03.160 detailed alternative roadmap. Which was? The 00:06:03.160 --> 00:06:05.279 alliance wanted to renegotiate with the European 00:06:05.279 --> 00:06:07.920 Union to sign an association agreement, along 00:06:07.920 --> 00:06:10.560 with a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement, 00:06:10.740 --> 00:06:13.360 which is often referred to as a DCFTA. Which 00:06:13.360 --> 00:06:15.500 is a massive pivot. Let's break down the difference 00:06:15.500 --> 00:06:17.439 there, because this is really the core of their 00:06:17.439 --> 00:06:20.079 platform. It is. What does a deep and comprehensive 00:06:20.079 --> 00:06:23.009 free trade agreement actually offer? that made 00:06:23.009 --> 00:06:25.089 them willing to stake their entire political 00:06:25.089 --> 00:06:27.449 identity on it. Well, it represents a fundamental 00:06:27.449 --> 00:06:30.110 shift in a country's economic and political compass. 00:06:30.550 --> 00:06:34.410 How so? So, the EAEU implies closer economic. 00:06:34.680 --> 00:06:37.379 customs and regulatory integration with Russia 00:06:37.379 --> 00:06:39.600 and its allied regional partners, right? Right. 00:06:39.699 --> 00:06:41.819 A DCFTA with the European Union, on the other 00:06:41.819 --> 00:06:45.459 hand, isn't just about lowering tariffs on goods. 00:06:45.519 --> 00:06:48.220 It's deeper than that. Exactly. The deep and 00:06:48.220 --> 00:06:50.360 comprehensive part means aligning your domestic 00:06:50.360 --> 00:06:52.560 regulations, your market standards, and often 00:06:52.560 --> 00:06:54.920 even your judicial and institutional frameworks 00:06:54.920 --> 00:06:57.720 with European standards. Oh, wow. So it's a structural 00:06:57.720 --> 00:07:00.560 overhaul. It is. It opens up completely different 00:07:00.560 --> 00:07:03.420 trade corridors and usually requires significant 00:07:03.420 --> 00:07:06.819 internal forms just to meet EU requirements. 00:07:07.160 --> 00:07:09.259 So the Way Out Alliance was effectively arguing 00:07:09.259 --> 00:07:11.560 that integrating with European markets was the 00:07:11.560 --> 00:07:13.959 only viable path for the country's economic future. 00:07:13.959 --> 00:07:16.720 OK, so they formed a super group. They blended 00:07:16.720 --> 00:07:18.980 insurgent energy with executive experience, and 00:07:18.980 --> 00:07:22.259 they built a highly specific technical platform 00:07:22.259 --> 00:07:25.319 focused on European economic integration. Right. 00:07:25.980 --> 00:07:28.699 It sounds great in a manifesto, but... You know, 00:07:28.720 --> 00:07:30.899 having a strong manifesto and famous leaders 00:07:30.899 --> 00:07:34.399 is great on paper, but the real test is the ballot 00:07:34.399 --> 00:07:37.480 box. A manifesto means nothing if voters don't 00:07:37.480 --> 00:07:39.980 buy it. Absolutely true. To see if this actually 00:07:39.980 --> 00:07:42.240 resonated, we have to look at their first real 00:07:42.240 --> 00:07:44.339 stress test, which was the parliamentary elections 00:07:44.339 --> 00:07:48.379 on April. to 2017. Right. Less than four months 00:07:48.379 --> 00:07:50.360 after officially forming, they stepped into the 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:53.060 national arena. That's incredibly fast. It is. 00:07:53.240 --> 00:07:56.240 And for this specific electoral push, Edmund 00:07:56.240 --> 00:07:58.399 Marukian, the leader of Bright Armenia, served 00:07:58.399 --> 00:08:00.199 as the leader of the alliance. I actually have 00:08:00.199 --> 00:08:01.800 the numbers from the source right here, and they 00:08:01.800 --> 00:08:04.240 are fascinating. Let's hear them. In that April 00:08:04.240 --> 00:08:07.500 2017 election, the way out alliance secured one 00:08:07.500 --> 00:08:09.800 hundred and twenty two thousand forty nine votes. 00:08:09.879 --> 00:08:12.620 OK. That translates to seven point seven eight 00:08:12.620 --> 00:08:14.579 percent of the national vote. And that's seven 00:08:14.579 --> 00:08:17.170 point seven. earned them exactly nine seats out 00:08:17.170 --> 00:08:20.629 of 105 in the National Assembly. So they successfully 00:08:20.629 --> 00:08:24.069 go from a piece of paper to a recognized parliamentary 00:08:24.069 --> 00:08:26.550 opposition force in just a few months. Which 00:08:26.550 --> 00:08:29.170 is a really significant achievement for a brand 00:08:29.170 --> 00:08:31.410 new coalition. It gives them a foothold. Okay, 00:08:31.550 --> 00:08:33.889 here's where it gets really interesting. Let 00:08:33.889 --> 00:08:35.870 me push back on that idea of a foothold. Sure. 00:08:36.129 --> 00:08:40.639 Because nine seats out of 105 is less than 10 00:08:40.639 --> 00:08:43.279 % of the legislative body. It is a tiny minority, 00:08:43.279 --> 00:08:46.600 yeah. In any parliamentary system, if you control 00:08:46.600 --> 00:08:49.960 less than 10 % of the room, you cannot pass laws. 00:08:50.600 --> 00:08:53.620 You literally cannot block laws if the majority 00:08:53.620 --> 00:08:56.200 is unified. That's true. So how does a newly 00:08:56.200 --> 00:08:59.200 formed coalition, running on a highly specific 00:08:59.200 --> 00:09:02.539 pro -European platform, actually wield any real 00:09:02.539 --> 00:09:05.179 influence with under 8 % of the vote? I mean, 00:09:05.299 --> 00:09:07.100 how do you maintain the morale of a supergroup 00:09:07.100 --> 00:09:09.460 when you are vastly outnumbered in the room where 00:09:09.460 --> 00:09:11.840 it happens? That is the ultimate challenge of 00:09:11.840 --> 00:09:13.639 minority opposition politics, isn't it? Yeah. 00:09:13.840 --> 00:09:16.320 Now, the source doesn't detail their daily legislative 00:09:16.320 --> 00:09:18.799 maneuvers, but politically speaking, when you 00:09:18.799 --> 00:09:20.960 only have nine seats, you don't use the parliament 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:22.980 as a legislative tool. What do you use it as? 00:09:23.100 --> 00:09:25.740 Use it as a megaphone. You leverage your seats 00:09:25.740 --> 00:09:28.899 on committees to access documents and ask really 00:09:28.899 --> 00:09:31.600 difficult questions. You use your guaranteed 00:09:31.600 --> 00:09:34.100 speaking time on the assembly floor to force 00:09:34.100 --> 00:09:37.120 debates that, you know, get broadcast on the 00:09:37.120 --> 00:09:38.659 evening news. You're playing to the cameras. 00:09:39.039 --> 00:09:41.940 Exactly. You position yourself as the most articulate, 00:09:42.279 --> 00:09:45.580 relentless watchdog in the room. A tiny block 00:09:45.580 --> 00:09:48.159 can wield outsized influence if they are disciplined 00:09:48.159 --> 00:09:51.000 and constantly forcing the majority to defend 00:09:51.000 --> 00:09:53.759 its actions publicly. That makes a lot of sense. 00:09:53.909 --> 00:09:56.190 You aren't trying to win the vote in the chamber, 00:09:56.250 --> 00:09:57.950 you are trying to win the argument in the living 00:09:57.950 --> 00:10:00.769 rooms of the voters watching at home. Precisely. 00:10:00.950 --> 00:10:03.169 But a megaphone only works if you can prove people 00:10:03.169 --> 00:10:05.730 are actually listening. Right. Which perfectly 00:10:05.730 --> 00:10:08.450 explains their very next move. Because shortly 00:10:08.450 --> 00:10:10.909 after the national parliamentary elections, they 00:10:10.909 --> 00:10:14.049 throw their hat into the ring for the 2017 Yerevan 00:10:14.049 --> 00:10:16.669 City Council election. Yes, shifting from the 00:10:16.669 --> 00:10:19.110 national stage to the municipal stage. And for 00:10:19.110 --> 00:10:21.450 this run, they change up their leadership strategy. 00:10:21.740 --> 00:10:24.179 Nicole Pashinyan, the leader of Civil Contract, 00:10:24.679 --> 00:10:26.840 steps up as their candidate for mayor of Yerevan. 00:10:27.039 --> 00:10:29.720 And the results in the capital city are drastically 00:10:29.720 --> 00:10:31.899 different from the national numbers. Oh, massively 00:10:31.899 --> 00:10:36.259 different. They secured 70 ,730 votes in Yerevan, 00:10:36.659 --> 00:10:39.100 which gave them 21 % of the total vote. Wow. 00:10:39.360 --> 00:10:41.980 Yeah. And that translated to 14 seats out of 00:10:41.980 --> 00:10:45.000 65 in the Yerevan City Council. They nearly tripled 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:46.820 their vote percentage in the capital compared 00:10:46.820 --> 00:10:49.529 to their national performance. It was a massive 00:10:49.529 --> 00:10:52.490 proof of concept. Yeah, it really was. It demonstrated 00:10:52.490 --> 00:10:56.230 that while their pro -European reformist platform 00:10:56.230 --> 00:10:59.429 might have only captured 7 .78 % nationally, 00:10:59.809 --> 00:11:02.750 it resonated deeply in the country's urban, economic, 00:11:02.809 --> 00:11:05.289 and cultural center. Right. Yerba isn't just 00:11:05.289 --> 00:11:07.950 any city, it's the heart of the country. Securing 00:11:07.950 --> 00:11:11.649 21 % there proves you are a rising force. But 00:11:11.649 --> 00:11:14.129 there is a detail in the source about this municipal 00:11:14.129 --> 00:11:16.480 election that I am genuinely stuck on. What's 00:11:16.480 --> 00:11:18.740 that? So Pashinyan runs for mayor, right? He 00:11:18.740 --> 00:11:20.940 leads the ticket. He secures this massive 21 00:11:20.940 --> 00:11:23.840 percent victory and gets 14 seats for the alliance. 00:11:24.220 --> 00:11:26.779 Right. And then the text notes that he gave up 00:11:26.779 --> 00:11:28.460 his hard won mandate for the city council. He 00:11:28.460 --> 00:11:30.639 did. He chose not to take the municipal seat, 00:11:31.080 --> 00:11:33.820 opting instead to continue his work in the National 00:11:33.820 --> 00:11:36.759 Assembly as an MP. I look at that and think, 00:11:37.100 --> 00:11:39.240 why would you abandon the post you just fought 00:11:39.240 --> 00:11:42.120 tooth and nail to win? That almost feels like 00:11:42.120 --> 00:11:44.820 a betrayal to the urban voters who just backed 00:11:44.820 --> 00:11:47.440 him I can completely see why it looks counterintuitive 00:11:47.440 --> 00:11:50.299 Yeah, you fight for local power win it and then 00:11:50.299 --> 00:11:52.139 stay in a national parliament where your team 00:11:52.139 --> 00:11:56.809 only holds nine out of 105 seats But if you analyze 00:11:56.809 --> 00:11:59.570 the political calculus, it is incredibly shrewd. 00:11:59.610 --> 00:12:02.409 Oh, so? The city council election was essentially 00:12:02.409 --> 00:12:05.149 a stress test for his personal brand and the 00:12:05.149 --> 00:12:07.909 Alliance's platform. Taking the seat would mean 00:12:07.909 --> 00:12:10.350 bogging himself down in municipal administration. 00:12:10.509 --> 00:12:12.970 Right, like fixing potholes, managing zoning 00:12:12.970 --> 00:12:16.190 laws, dealing with city budgets. Exactly. While 00:12:16.190 --> 00:12:19.230 the real fight regarding the EAEU and the future 00:12:19.230 --> 00:12:21.049 of the country's foreign policy is happening 00:12:21.049 --> 00:12:23.570 where? In the National Assembly. Exactly. Giving 00:12:23.570 --> 00:12:25.850 up the local seat means Pashinyan recognized 00:12:25.850 --> 00:12:28.210 that the ultimate lever of power remained on 00:12:28.210 --> 00:12:31.049 the national stage. Oh, I see. He used the local 00:12:31.049 --> 00:12:34.690 election to build his profile, to validate his 00:12:34.690 --> 00:12:37.389 popularity, and demonstrate his political weight. 00:12:37.659 --> 00:12:41.399 He leveraged that 21 percent urban victory to 00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:43.519 amplify his voice in the national parliament 00:12:43.519 --> 00:12:46.279 rather than, you know, changing his career path 00:12:46.279 --> 00:12:48.879 to become a city administrator. It was a highly 00:12:48.879 --> 00:12:51.600 calculated allocation of their leadership resources. 00:12:51.980 --> 00:12:54.460 It really was. And speaking of calculated moves 00:12:54.460 --> 00:12:57.559 regarding who goes where, there is this bizarre 00:12:57.559 --> 00:13:01.159 historical footnote in the source material that 00:13:01.159 --> 00:13:03.700 really highlights how fiercely they guarded. 00:13:03.929 --> 00:13:06.549 their specific brand. Oh, the Union for National 00:13:06.549 --> 00:13:09.190 Self -Determination. Yes. It involves this other 00:13:09.190 --> 00:13:11.149 political party called the Union for National 00:13:11.149 --> 00:13:14.090 Self -Determination. Right. Prior to the 2017 00:13:14.090 --> 00:13:16.590 elections, the Union for National Self -Determination, 00:13:16.669 --> 00:13:19.169 which was another liberal, pro -European party, 00:13:19.649 --> 00:13:21.610 officially requested to join the Way Out Alliance. 00:13:21.929 --> 00:13:24.029 On paper, they shared very similar ideological 00:13:24.029 --> 00:13:25.750 goals. They seemed like a total natural fit. 00:13:25.950 --> 00:13:28.049 You would think so, but according to the historical 00:13:28.049 --> 00:13:30.210 record, their request was simply never responded 00:13:30.210 --> 00:13:32.840 to. The Alliance completely ignored them. This 00:13:32.840 --> 00:13:35.019 is another moment that baffles me initially. 00:13:35.740 --> 00:13:38.159 If you are a minority opposition group sitting 00:13:38.159 --> 00:13:41.379 at under 8 % of the national vote, conventional 00:13:41.379 --> 00:13:44.879 political wisdom says you need every single ally 00:13:44.879 --> 00:13:47.240 you can get. Right. Build the coalition. You 00:13:47.240 --> 00:13:49.960 want to build the biggest tent possible. Why 00:13:49.960 --> 00:13:52.440 on earth would you turn away voters and activists 00:13:52.440 --> 00:13:54.889 who already agree with you? It reveals a lot 00:13:54.889 --> 00:13:58.029 about their internal strategy. By ignoring another 00:13:58.029 --> 00:14:00.590 pro -European party, the Way Out Alliance was 00:14:00.590 --> 00:14:03.590 signaling that they weren't just a generic catch 00:14:03.590 --> 00:14:06.389 -all bucket for anyone who liked Europe. They 00:14:06.389 --> 00:14:09.730 were a highly specific, curated organization. 00:14:10.350 --> 00:14:12.789 Adding a fourth party especially, a legacy party 00:14:12.789 --> 00:14:15.230 with its own history and baggage, could easily 00:14:15.230 --> 00:14:17.250 muddy their messaging. It could dilute the brand. 00:14:17.629 --> 00:14:19.429 Precisely. It could dilute the brand, or worse, 00:14:19.690 --> 00:14:22.009 introduce leadership struggles. The chemistry 00:14:22.009 --> 00:14:25.669 between Pashinyan and Sargsyan was clearly functional. 00:14:25.990 --> 00:14:28.110 They had a delicate balance of power between 00:14:28.110 --> 00:14:30.990 their three factions. And adding a fourth completely 00:14:30.990 --> 00:14:34.190 throws off that balance. Exactly. Introducing 00:14:34.190 --> 00:14:36.870 outside variables could disrupt that internal 00:14:36.870 --> 00:14:39.929 cohesion. It suggests they firmly believed that 00:14:39.929 --> 00:14:43.490 a tight, unified, disciplined minority was far 00:14:43.490 --> 00:14:45.970 more dangerous to the establishment than a large, 00:14:46.250 --> 00:14:48.950 disorganized, fractured coalition. So we have 00:14:48.950 --> 00:14:51.799 this tight highly disciplined alliance. They've 00:14:51.799 --> 00:14:54.100 tested their strength and parlent, they've proven 00:14:54.100 --> 00:14:56.559 their urban appeal in the capital, and they've 00:14:56.559 --> 00:14:58.299 fiercely protected their internal chemistry. 00:14:58.879 --> 00:15:01.840 They're playing a very calculated game of political 00:15:01.840 --> 00:15:05.100 chess. But as we see so often in history, you 00:15:05.100 --> 00:15:07.279 can play chess all you want, but sometimes the 00:15:07.279 --> 00:15:10.200 board just gets flipped over entirely. And that 00:15:10.200 --> 00:15:12.200 brings us to the defining moment of this story, 00:15:12.639 --> 00:15:16.129 2018. The 2018 Armenian Revolution. This is where 00:15:16.129 --> 00:15:18.450 the political arena fundamentally shifted. The 00:15:18.450 --> 00:15:20.690 real shift in their power happens outside the 00:15:20.690 --> 00:15:23.210 legislative chambers entirely. Exactly. The Way 00:15:23.210 --> 00:15:25.669 Out Alliance transitioned from being a parliamentary 00:15:25.669 --> 00:15:29.029 minority making speeches to being an active physical 00:15:29.029 --> 00:15:31.330 participant in a nationwide movement. Right. 00:15:31.549 --> 00:15:34.389 The source explicitly notes that the Alliance 00:15:34.389 --> 00:15:37.590 supported the goals of the revolution and actively 00:15:37.590 --> 00:15:40.129 took to the streets in protests supporting Nikol 00:15:40.129 --> 00:15:42.750 Pashinyan. Think about that physical shift for 00:15:42.750 --> 00:15:45.649 a second. They move from debating trade agreements 00:15:45.649 --> 00:15:48.730 and padded chairs to mobilizing citizens on the 00:15:48.730 --> 00:15:51.429 streets with megaphones. It's a massive leap. 00:15:51.629 --> 00:15:54.950 They are riding a massive unprecedented wave 00:15:54.950 --> 00:15:58.090 of revolutionary momentum. The political landscape 00:15:58.090 --> 00:16:00.230 is shifting beneath their feet in real time. 00:16:00.669 --> 00:16:03.129 The establishment is crumbling and they are standing 00:16:03.129 --> 00:16:05.149 right at the forefront of it. They've arrived. 00:16:05.289 --> 00:16:06.990 They have finally reached the mountaintop they've 00:16:06.990 --> 00:16:10.399 been climbing since December 2016. And this is 00:16:10.399 --> 00:16:11.940 where we hit the paradox you mentioned at the 00:16:11.940 --> 00:16:13.679 very beginning of the deep dive. The breakup. 00:16:13.879 --> 00:16:17.100 Right. Right at the peak of this historical wave, 00:16:17.480 --> 00:16:19.740 having successfully navigated the revolution 00:16:19.740 --> 00:16:23.740 on September 12th, 2018, the way out alliance 00:16:23.740 --> 00:16:26.519 officially dissolves. It's wild. The constituent 00:16:26.519 --> 00:16:28.720 parties agree to participate in the upcoming 00:16:28.720 --> 00:16:32.019 2018 parliamentary elections entirely separately. 00:16:32.419 --> 00:16:34.620 So what does this all mean? I keep trying to 00:16:34.620 --> 00:16:36.340 wrap my head around the logic of breaking up 00:16:36.340 --> 00:16:38.840 right when you win. It's definitely unusual. 00:16:39.039 --> 00:16:41.159 Let me try a metaphor to explain the mechanics 00:16:41.159 --> 00:16:43.299 of this, because I think it helps visualize what 00:16:43.299 --> 00:16:46.460 actually happened. Sure. Go for it. Think of 00:16:46.460 --> 00:16:49.519 the way out alliance, not as a permanent political 00:16:49.519 --> 00:16:52.539 party, but as a booster rocket on a space shuttle. 00:16:52.700 --> 00:16:56.000 OK. The old political regime was the Earth's 00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:58.919 atmosphere. It had immense gravitational pull. 00:16:59.399 --> 00:17:02.519 To break out of that gravity, you need a massive 00:17:02.519 --> 00:17:05.420 concentrated burst of energy. Right. You need 00:17:05.420 --> 00:17:08.789 three different engines, civil contract, Bright 00:17:08.789 --> 00:17:11.910 Armenia and Henry Petutian all burning their 00:17:11.910 --> 00:17:14.390 fuel together just to achieve escape velocity. 00:17:14.529 --> 00:17:16.750 That is a very apt way to look at it. But here's 00:17:16.750 --> 00:17:18.970 the thing about a booster rocket. Once you actually 00:17:18.970 --> 00:17:20.829 hit orbit, once you break through the atmosphere 00:17:20.829 --> 00:17:23.210 and the revolution succeeds, that booster rocket 00:17:23.210 --> 00:17:26.170 is suddenly empty. It served its purpose. Exactly. 00:17:26.309 --> 00:17:28.569 It's no longer providing thrust. It's just dead 00:17:28.569 --> 00:17:30.730 weight. Right. So what do you do? You detach 00:17:30.730 --> 00:17:33.890 it. You dissolve the alliance because the specific 00:17:33.890 --> 00:17:36.650 mission it was built for breaking the gravity 00:17:36.650 --> 00:17:39.490 of the old regime has been accomplished. Or, 00:17:39.650 --> 00:17:41.490 you know, it's like a disruptive tech startup. 00:17:41.950 --> 00:17:44.309 They build a revolutionary product, successfully 00:17:44.309 --> 00:17:46.809 disrupt the entire industry, and then the founders 00:17:46.809 --> 00:17:49.670 immediately break up to launch rival companies. 00:17:50.269 --> 00:17:52.930 That metaphor tracks perfectly with the historical 00:17:52.930 --> 00:17:55.150 aftermath outlined in the source. If we look 00:17:55.150 --> 00:17:57.549 at the trajectory of the detached pieces, it 00:17:57.549 --> 00:17:59.910 explains the dissolution completely. Let's look 00:17:59.910 --> 00:18:02.440 at where the parties actually landed. So Bright 00:18:02.440 --> 00:18:05.220 Armenia and the Henir -Apituchin party decided 00:18:05.220 --> 00:18:07.740 to stay together, right? They formed a new group 00:18:07.740 --> 00:18:09.940 called the Bright Alliance. And how did they 00:18:09.940 --> 00:18:12.240 fare without the thrust of civil contract? Well, 00:18:12.240 --> 00:18:15.380 they participated in the 2018 Yerevan City Council 00:18:15.380 --> 00:18:18.000 elections and they came in third place. They 00:18:18.000 --> 00:18:20.619 secured just three seats out of 65. Let's put 00:18:20.619 --> 00:18:22.559 that in perspective for a second. The United 00:18:22.559 --> 00:18:25.960 Way Out Alliance secured 14 municipal seats just 00:18:25.960 --> 00:18:28.519 the year prior. Now, without civil contract. 00:18:29.000 --> 00:18:32.200 Two -thirds of the original alliance drops down 00:18:32.200 --> 00:18:35.079 to just three seats. It's a huge drop. So what 00:18:35.079 --> 00:18:37.359 happened to civil contract in Nickel and Pashinyan? 00:18:37.599 --> 00:18:39.940 Civil contract went on an entirely different 00:18:39.940 --> 00:18:42.660 trajectory. They teamed up with the Mission Party 00:18:42.660 --> 00:18:46.039 to form the My Step Alliance. OK. And they completely 00:18:46.039 --> 00:18:49.039 dominated the political landscape. Wow. In those 00:18:49.039 --> 00:18:51.420 same municipal elections, the My Step Alliance 00:18:51.420 --> 00:18:54.759 swept the board. Their candidate, Haik Marutian, 00:18:54.980 --> 00:18:57.500 won decisively and was appointed as the mayor 00:18:57.500 --> 00:19:00.779 of Yerevan. So civil contract essentially absorbs 00:19:00.779 --> 00:19:03.960 the entire momentum of the 2018 revolution. Basically, 00:19:04.140 --> 00:19:06.339 yeah. They realize they don't need the original 00:19:06.339 --> 00:19:08.839 booster rocket anymore. They've captured the 00:19:08.839 --> 00:19:11.259 public's imagination to such an extent that they 00:19:11.259 --> 00:19:13.519 can find a new partner, form a new alliance, 00:19:13.779 --> 00:19:15.779 and completely take over the Capitol. If we connect 00:19:15.779 --> 00:19:18.180 this to the bigger picture, it's a stark reminder 00:19:18.180 --> 00:19:20.759 of the pragmatism of politics. Yeah. When they 00:19:20.759 --> 00:19:24.480 were a weak opposition force in 2016, they desperately 00:19:24.480 --> 00:19:26.539 needed each other just to survive. They needed 00:19:26.539 --> 00:19:29.460 to pool their resources. Exactly, to gain that 00:19:29.460 --> 00:19:33.880 initial 7 .78 % foothold. They needed the combined 00:19:33.880 --> 00:19:36.259 weight of their leaders to legitimize their platform. 00:19:36.680 --> 00:19:39.519 But the revolution blew the doors open. Everything 00:19:39.519 --> 00:19:42.460 changed. Civil contract, riding the crest of 00:19:42.460 --> 00:19:46.519 that wave, realized their power had grown exponentially 00:19:46.519 --> 00:19:48.819 beyond the confines of the three -party coalition. 00:19:49.039 --> 00:19:51.640 The environment that necessitated their union 00:19:51.640 --> 00:19:54.519 literally no longer existed. They changed the 00:19:54.519 --> 00:19:57.200 country, and in doing so, they simply outgrew 00:19:57.200 --> 00:19:59.819 each other. It really reframes how we think about 00:19:59.819 --> 00:20:02.480 political failure versus success. How do you 00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:05.240 mean? Well, we tend to view alliances like marriages, 00:20:05.720 --> 00:20:08.299 where a breakup is inherently seen as a failure 00:20:08.299 --> 00:20:10.400 or a tragic collapse. Right, like something went 00:20:10.400 --> 00:20:12.539 wrong. But in this case, the dissolution of the 00:20:12.539 --> 00:20:14.880 way out alliance wasn't a failure at all. It 00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:18.119 was the direct byproduct of absolute, unquestionable 00:20:18.119 --> 00:20:21.200 success. Exactly. The ignored request from the 00:20:21.200 --> 00:20:23.880 Union for National Self -Determination in 2017 00:20:23.880 --> 00:20:26.380 showed they were entirely unsentimental about 00:20:26.380 --> 00:20:29.359 who they let into their ranks. The 2018 dissolution 00:20:29.359 --> 00:20:31.440 showed they were equally unsentimental about 00:20:31.339 --> 00:20:33.460 about when to pack it up and move on. They treated 00:20:33.460 --> 00:20:36.339 the alliance as a strategic tool, not a permanent 00:20:36.339 --> 00:20:39.160 identity. Which brings us to why this all matters 00:20:39.160 --> 00:20:43.599 to you listening right now. Why spend time unpacking 00:20:43.599 --> 00:20:46.099 the mechanics of an Armenian political alliance 00:20:46.099 --> 00:20:48.869 that lasted for less than 20 months? It's a fair 00:20:48.869 --> 00:20:51.630 question. Because it is an absolute master class 00:20:51.630 --> 00:20:54.170 in how incredibly fast political landscapes can 00:20:54.170 --> 00:20:56.950 shift. If you're trying to understand how change 00:20:56.950 --> 00:20:59.609 happens in the modern world, this is the blueprint. 00:20:59.690 --> 00:21:01.470 It really is. It proves that you don't always 00:21:01.470 --> 00:21:04.190 need a decades old institution with endless financial 00:21:04.190 --> 00:21:07.549 resources to make history. Sometimes a temporary, 00:21:07.710 --> 00:21:10.710 highly focused alliance, a political supergroup 00:21:10.710 --> 00:21:12.910 built on a very specific set of grievances lasting 00:21:12.910 --> 00:21:15.210 just a matter of months is enough to completely 00:21:15.210 --> 00:21:18.269 alter a country's trajectory. way out Alliance 00:21:18.269 --> 00:21:19.849 were from a signed piece of paper in December 00:21:19.849 --> 00:21:23.829 2016 to holding nine seats to a 21 % urban victory 00:21:23.829 --> 00:21:26.849 to a nationwide revolution to dissolving entirely 00:21:26.849 --> 00:21:30.130 by September 2018. That is breathtaking speed. 00:21:30.529 --> 00:21:33.450 It truly is. And as we consider the mechanics 00:21:33.450 --> 00:21:36.529 of power, it leaves us with a lingering somewhat 00:21:36.529 --> 00:21:38.930 provocative question to mull over. Let's hear 00:21:38.930 --> 00:21:41.880 it. If a political alliance dissolves immediately 00:21:41.880 --> 00:21:44.759 after achieving its greatest victory, was that 00:21:44.759 --> 00:21:47.460 alliance ever truly a unified vision for the 00:21:47.460 --> 00:21:50.920 future, or is it always merely a tool of convenience 00:21:50.920 --> 00:21:53.539 for ambitious leaders? Ooh, that's interesting. 00:21:53.700 --> 00:21:55.960 It makes you wonder, does the very nature of 00:21:55.960 --> 00:21:59.000 victory destroy the need for compromise? When 00:21:59.000 --> 00:22:01.640 a group finally acquires the absolute power to 00:22:01.640 --> 00:22:03.980 enact its will, perhaps the very first thing 00:22:03.980 --> 00:22:06.380 it discards is the necessity of sharing that 00:22:06.380 --> 00:22:08.859 power. Does victory destroy the need for for 00:22:08.859 --> 00:22:11.700 compromise. That is a brilliant and slightly 00:22:11.700 --> 00:22:14.440 unsettling point to end on. Definitely something 00:22:14.440 --> 00:22:16.400 to chew on the next time you see politicians 00:22:16.400 --> 00:22:18.500 smiling and shaking hands on a debate stage, 00:22:19.019 --> 00:22:21.119 promising unity. Thank you for joining us on 00:22:21.119 --> 00:22:23.099 this deep dive. Keep questioning the structures 00:22:23.099 --> 00:22:25.019 around you, keep looking for the why and the 00:22:25.019 --> 00:22:27.059 how behind the headlines, and remember sometimes 00:22:27.059 --> 00:22:29.480 the most impactful political supergroups are 00:22:29.480 --> 00:22:31.259 the ones that only stay together for one tour. 00:22:31.579 --> 00:22:32.299 We'll catch you next time.