WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.819 Welcome to the Deep Dive. We're skipping the 00:00:02.819 --> 00:00:05.580 usual pleasantries today because we have a massive, 00:00:05.940 --> 00:00:08.439 incredibly dense historical breakdown to get 00:00:08.439 --> 00:00:10.259 through. Yeah, we really do. There's a lot of 00:00:10.259 --> 00:00:12.759 ground to cover. Our mission today is to explore 00:00:12.759 --> 00:00:16.820 the 1917 Kerensky Offensive. And I'll say, if 00:00:16.820 --> 00:00:18.859 you are the kind of person who loves tracing 00:00:18.859 --> 00:00:22.460 massive global shifts back to a single chaotic 00:00:22.460 --> 00:00:25.379 flashpoint, This is exactly for you. Oh, without 00:00:25.379 --> 00:00:26.839 a doubt. It's one of those moments that just 00:00:26.839 --> 00:00:29.280 redefines everything. OK, let's unpack this. 00:00:29.559 --> 00:00:32.600 The setting is the summer of 1917. World War 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:34.679 One has been grinding up an entire generation 00:00:34.679 --> 00:00:36.840 for, what, three years at this point. Right. 00:00:36.920 --> 00:00:39.799 Three brutally long years. And in Russia, the 00:00:39.799 --> 00:00:42.859 Tsar, Nicholas II, has just abdicated the throne. 00:00:43.240 --> 00:00:45.640 The country is crumbling. The political landscape 00:00:45.640 --> 00:00:48.640 is completely revolutionary. And the brand new 00:00:48.640 --> 00:00:50.780 provisional government decides that the absolute 00:00:50.780 --> 00:00:53.509 best way to unite this fragmented nation is to 00:00:53.509 --> 00:00:56.729 launch an attack. Right. To launch one final 00:00:56.729 --> 00:00:59.229 massive military offensive against the central 00:00:59.229 --> 00:01:02.130 powers. What's fascinating here is the sheer 00:01:02.130 --> 00:01:07.010 audacity and, well, perhaps the fatal flaw of 00:01:07.010 --> 00:01:08.969 that premise. I mean, you have a government trying 00:01:08.969 --> 00:01:13.209 to launch a coordinated, highly disciplined military 00:01:13.209 --> 00:01:16.390 operation using an army that has essentially 00:01:16.390 --> 00:01:19.069 just democratized itself. Which sounds impossible. 00:01:19.250 --> 00:01:20.989 Because it is. These are soldiers who have just 00:01:20.989 --> 00:01:23.269 experienced a revolution. They suddenly feel 00:01:23.269 --> 00:01:25.469 they no longer have to blindly take orders from 00:01:25.469 --> 00:01:28.930 above. It is a stunning paradox to try and execute 00:01:28.930 --> 00:01:32.430 a war with a military apparatus that is actively, 00:01:32.430 --> 00:01:34.909 you know, dismantling its own hierarchy. And 00:01:34.909 --> 00:01:37.090 if you've ever wondered exactly how the Russian 00:01:37.090 --> 00:01:39.590 empire tipped from a new liberal provisional 00:01:39.590 --> 00:01:42.230 government directly into the hands of the Bolsheviks, 00:01:42.430 --> 00:01:44.799 the dominoes do not falling in a palace. No, 00:01:44.799 --> 00:01:46.680 they don't. They start falling right here in 00:01:46.680 --> 00:01:49.659 the muddy trenches of Galicia. To really understand 00:01:49.659 --> 00:01:51.840 how this gamble played out, we have to look at 00:01:51.840 --> 00:01:53.920 the pressure cooker that was Russia in early 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:57.900 1917. The economy was just in free fall. To fund 00:01:57.900 --> 00:02:00.000 the war, the previous government had simply printed 00:02:00.000 --> 00:02:02.620 money, which led to catastrophic inflation. Food 00:02:02.620 --> 00:02:05.040 prices had more than tripled. Hunger was the 00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:07.560 primary driving force on the streets. Hunger 00:02:07.560 --> 00:02:10.159 is always the ultimate catalyst. You know, in 00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:12.930 February, Female factory workers in Petrograd 00:02:12.930 --> 00:02:15.219 marched demanding bread. But they were quickly 00:02:15.219 --> 00:02:17.680 joined by mail workers, and the demand shifted 00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:20.860 almost overnight from food to the complete overhaul 00:02:20.860 --> 00:02:23.219 of the state. And the military response to that 00:02:23.219 --> 00:02:25.500 was the real turning point, wasn't it? Exactly. 00:02:25.939 --> 00:02:28.120 When the military commander in Petrograd ordered 00:02:28.120 --> 00:02:30.860 the garrison to fire on the rioters, a critical 00:02:30.860 --> 00:02:33.960 mass of soldiers just outright refused. They 00:02:33.960 --> 00:02:36.219 turned their weapons around and joined the crowds. 00:02:36.939 --> 00:02:40.120 That systemic military refusal was the breaking 00:02:40.120 --> 00:02:42.819 point that forced Tsar Nicholas II out. Which 00:02:42.819 --> 00:02:45.620 leaves a massive power vacuum. And what steps 00:02:45.620 --> 00:02:47.979 into that vacuum is a bizarre political reality 00:02:47.979 --> 00:02:50.879 known as dual power. Dual power, yes. On one 00:02:50.879 --> 00:02:52.539 side you have the provisional government. This 00:02:52.539 --> 00:02:55.000 is made up mostly of liberal politicians from 00:02:55.000 --> 00:02:57.840 the old state Duma. Technically they run the 00:02:57.840 --> 00:03:01.360 country? Right, technically. On paper. On paper. 00:03:01.479 --> 00:03:03.840 But on the other side you have the Petrograd 00:03:03.840 --> 00:03:06.360 Soviet, which is a council of workers and soldiers, 00:03:06.379 --> 00:03:09.439 and they hold the actual physical power on the 00:03:09.439 --> 00:03:12.569 streets. It's important to note, impartially, 00:03:13.009 --> 00:03:15.509 that neither of these groups was fully in control 00:03:15.509 --> 00:03:17.789 of the masses. No, nobody was driving the car 00:03:17.789 --> 00:03:20.210 at that point. Right. And lurking in the background 00:03:20.210 --> 00:03:24.250 of all this are the Bolsheviks, the radical anti 00:03:24.250 --> 00:03:27.229 -war fringe who are just actively watching this 00:03:27.229 --> 00:03:30.189 moderate coalition struggle to maintain order. 00:03:30.330 --> 00:03:32.389 And that struggle is most apparent in the military. 00:03:32.669 --> 00:03:35.669 The petrograd Soviet was terrified that conservative 00:03:35.669 --> 00:03:37.990 generals might use the army to crush the revolution 00:03:37.990 --> 00:03:40.689 So they issued something called order number 00:03:40.689 --> 00:03:43.090 one. This is where it gets crazy It really is 00:03:43.090 --> 00:03:45.210 the intent of order number one was simply to 00:03:45.210 --> 00:03:48.490 secure military loyalty to the Soviet But once 00:03:48.490 --> 00:03:51.270 that order reached the front lines the enlisted 00:03:51.270 --> 00:03:54.250 men interpreted it as absolute liberation. They 00:03:54.250 --> 00:03:56.919 thought it was a free pass exactly They believed 00:03:56.919 --> 00:03:59.219 it meant they no longer had to obey their officers 00:03:59.219 --> 00:04:01.520 at all. They immediately formed these soldiers 00:04:01.520 --> 00:04:04.090 committees to vote on their actions. It's so 00:04:04.090 --> 00:04:06.629 difficult to fathom the reality of that on a 00:04:06.629 --> 00:04:08.889 battlefield. I mean, think about it like this. 00:04:09.349 --> 00:04:11.949 Imagine a corporate hierarchy where the interns 00:04:11.949 --> 00:04:14.610 suddenly get to vote on whether the CEO's strategy 00:04:14.610 --> 00:04:17.250 should be executed. That is exactly what it was 00:04:17.250 --> 00:04:19.250 like. You have commanding officers trying to 00:04:19.250 --> 00:04:22.250 orchestrate complex trench warfare, and they 00:04:22.250 --> 00:04:25.329 suddenly have to pause, literally pause, a war 00:04:25.329 --> 00:04:28.089 and negotiate with a committee of enlisted men 00:04:28.089 --> 00:04:30.750 who are taking a vote on whether or not the artillery 00:04:30.750 --> 00:04:34.019 barrage is a good idea. paralyzes the entire 00:04:34.019 --> 00:04:36.319 command structure. And we have to look at the 00:04:36.319 --> 00:04:39.000 deep -seated class tensions driving this. The 00:04:39.000 --> 00:04:41.560 pre -war officer corps was largely aristocratic. 00:04:42.420 --> 00:04:44.420 They looked at these new peasant -led committees 00:04:44.420 --> 00:04:48.319 with absolute contempt. To them, it was a complete 00:04:48.319 --> 00:04:50.720 inversion of the natural social order they had 00:04:50.720 --> 00:04:53.660 known their whole lives. Meanwhile, the soldiers, 00:04:54.339 --> 00:04:57.519 mostly peasant draftees, they were deeply patriotic 00:04:57.519 --> 00:05:00.839 about defending their homes. But they had zero 00:05:00.839 --> 00:05:03.360 interest in dying to conquer new territory for 00:05:03.360 --> 00:05:05.980 government they barely recognized. So discipline 00:05:05.980 --> 00:05:08.899 didn't just bend, it completely evaporated. Which 00:05:08.899 --> 00:05:12.259 brings up a glaring contradiction. In the middle 00:05:12.259 --> 00:05:15.160 of all this evaporating discipline and political 00:05:15.160 --> 00:05:17.699 chaos, why would the provisional government choose 00:05:17.699 --> 00:05:20.639 to attack? It's the big question. Right, because 00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:23.500 holding the line seems difficult enough. Launching 00:05:23.500 --> 00:05:25.939 a massive offensive seems like institutional 00:05:25.939 --> 00:05:28.860 suicide. It looks suicidal in hindsight, sure. 00:05:29.120 --> 00:05:32.379 But at the time, they were crushed between two 00:05:32.379 --> 00:05:36.500 immense pressures. First, the Entente allies, 00:05:36.860 --> 00:05:39.959 Britain, France, Italy, were really turning the 00:05:39.959 --> 00:05:42.519 screws. They desperately needed Russia to attack 00:05:42.519 --> 00:05:44.220 in order to pull German troops away from the 00:05:44.220 --> 00:05:46.540 Western Front. And there was a financial threat 00:05:46.540 --> 00:05:49.040 attached to that. A massive one. The Russian 00:05:49.040 --> 00:05:51.600 foreign minister was explicitly warned that the 00:05:51.600 --> 00:05:53.699 allies might withhold the massive loans Russia 00:05:53.699 --> 00:05:56.379 needed to avoid complete bankruptcy. It was in 00:05:56.379 --> 00:05:58.800 many ways financial blackmail. But was it purely 00:05:58.800 --> 00:06:01.259 financial desperation, or did the provisional 00:06:01.259 --> 00:06:03.660 government actually believe a victory was possible? 00:06:04.120 --> 00:06:06.819 Because the new minister of war, Alexander Kerensky, 00:06:07.100 --> 00:06:09.180 seemed remarkably convinced that a successful 00:06:09.180 --> 00:06:11.639 offensive would give Russia the leverage to negotiate 00:06:11.639 --> 00:06:14.899 an end to the war on their own terms. Peace without 00:06:14.899 --> 00:06:18.769 annexations or reparations. That was the goal. 00:06:19.550 --> 00:06:22.009 Kerensky was a brilliant orator, but he suffered 00:06:22.009 --> 00:06:24.290 from a dangerous level of political optimism. 00:06:24.410 --> 00:06:27.089 That's a great way to put it. He genuinely believed 00:06:27.089 --> 00:06:29.870 that the fervor of the revolution could be translated 00:06:29.870 --> 00:06:32.839 into military aggression. He thought a victory 00:06:32.839 --> 00:06:34.980 would force Germany to the negotiating table. 00:06:35.019 --> 00:06:37.259 He treated it like a political campaign. I mean 00:06:37.259 --> 00:06:39.680 he was acting almost like a modern political 00:06:39.680 --> 00:06:42.720 rock star touring the front lines giving these 00:06:42.720 --> 00:06:46.220 sweeping emotional speeches alongside General 00:06:46.220 --> 00:06:49.129 Alexei Brusilov. to just whip up enthusiasm. 00:06:49.329 --> 00:06:51.449 Speeches don't deflect bullets, though. No, they 00:06:51.449 --> 00:06:54.490 do not. And the military leadership quickly realized 00:06:54.490 --> 00:06:56.829 that their regular infantry was fundamentally 00:06:56.829 --> 00:06:59.490 unreliable. Many soldiers were openly stating 00:06:59.490 --> 00:07:01.930 they would not leave their trenches. So the high 00:07:01.930 --> 00:07:04.310 command needed a workaround. They needed troops 00:07:04.310 --> 00:07:06.350 who wouldn't call a committee meeting when ordered 00:07:06.350 --> 00:07:08.730 to charge. Exactly. Here's where it gets really 00:07:08.730 --> 00:07:11.209 interesting. The provisional government's desperate 00:07:11.209 --> 00:07:13.790 solution to this total lack of discipline was 00:07:13.790 --> 00:07:16.529 to create volunteer shock battalions. Officially 00:07:16.529 --> 00:07:19.329 called revolutionary battalions, but popularly 00:07:19.329 --> 00:07:22.170 known as the Battalions of Death. The sheer scale 00:07:22.170 --> 00:07:24.810 of this volunteer movement is staggering. Between 00:07:24.810 --> 00:07:28.829 March and November of 1917, roughly 600 ,000 00:07:28.829 --> 00:07:31.250 volunteers stepped up to join these shock units. 00:07:31.490 --> 00:07:35.209 Wow. 600 ,000. Yeah. The military pulled the 00:07:35.209 --> 00:07:37.649 most loyal, experienced, and aggressive soldiers 00:07:37.649 --> 00:07:40.129 and officers from regular regiments, and even 00:07:40.129 --> 00:07:42.430 brought in civilian volunteers from Petrograd 00:07:42.430 --> 00:07:44.910 and Moscow. The psychological tactics involved 00:07:44.910 --> 00:07:47.670 in these battalions were intense too. We even 00:07:47.670 --> 00:07:50.269 see the creation of a women's battalion and the 00:07:50.269 --> 00:07:52.389 strategy behind it wasn't just about adding numbers 00:07:52.389 --> 00:07:55.250 to the ranks. The provisional government explicitly 00:07:55.250 --> 00:07:57.370 deployed the women's battalion to the front lines 00:07:57.370 --> 00:08:00.550 to shame the demoralized regular male infantry 00:08:00.550 --> 00:08:03.110 into fighting. It is a profound reflection of 00:08:03.110 --> 00:08:06.250 the societal desperation in 1917 Russia. I mean 00:08:06.250 --> 00:08:08.350 they were willing to shatter deeply entrenched 00:08:08.350 --> 00:08:10.790 gender norms if it meant squeezing one last push 00:08:10.790 --> 00:08:13.360 out of the army. But did it actually work? Well, 00:08:13.519 --> 00:08:16.379 from a purely military perspective, creating 00:08:16.379 --> 00:08:19.220 these elite shock battalions was a strategic 00:08:19.220 --> 00:08:22.680 disaster. By siphoning off the most motivated, 00:08:22.720 --> 00:08:25.379 capable soldiers into a few specialized units, 00:08:25.720 --> 00:08:27.980 they completely hollowed out the regular infantry. 00:08:28.079 --> 00:08:30.740 Right, you take the best guys out. Exactly. They 00:08:30.740 --> 00:08:33.179 removed the backbone from the main army, leaving 00:08:33.179 --> 00:08:36.019 the bulk of their forces even more hesitant and 00:08:36.019 --> 00:08:38.879 uncoordinated. And that structural weakness really 00:08:38.879 --> 00:08:41.779 sets the stage for the launch on July 1st. The 00:08:41.779 --> 00:08:43.820 7th and 11th Armies begin their advance toward 00:08:43.820 --> 00:08:46.600 the city of Lemberg in the north. And initially, 00:08:47.019 --> 00:08:49.639 Against all conventional logic, it works. It 00:08:49.639 --> 00:08:52.139 really does. The shock battalions violently break 00:08:52.139 --> 00:08:54.340 through the Austro -Hungarian trenches. They 00:08:54.340 --> 00:08:57.059 capture over 18 ,000 men on the very first day. 00:08:57.279 --> 00:08:59.820 And hidden within that initial push is a highly 00:08:59.820 --> 00:09:02.740 complex, almost ironic engagement at the Battle 00:09:02.740 --> 00:09:05.600 of Zborov. Oh, the Czech story. Yes. In the 11th 00:09:05.600 --> 00:09:07.879 Army Sector, a Russian -aligned Czechoslovak 00:09:07.879 --> 00:09:10.759 Brigade assaulted the Austro -Hungarian 19th 00:09:10.759 --> 00:09:12.600 Infantry Division. Now, the Austro -Hungarian 00:09:12.600 --> 00:09:14.620 Division was actually comprised of many ethnic 00:09:14.620 --> 00:09:17.549 Czechs. So you have Czechs fighting Czechs in 00:09:17.549 --> 00:09:20.289 the middle of a Russian offensive against a crumbling 00:09:20.289 --> 00:09:23.629 Habsburg empire. It is a tragic microcosm of 00:09:23.629 --> 00:09:27.450 the entire war. The Czechoslovak volunteers successfully 00:09:27.450 --> 00:09:30.149 pushed the Austro -Hungarian forces out of the 00:09:30.149 --> 00:09:32.809 town. And while it was a relatively small tactical 00:09:32.809 --> 00:09:35.509 engagement, it became a foundational mythos for 00:09:35.509 --> 00:09:38.110 Czech and Slovak history. It represented a critical 00:09:38.110 --> 00:09:40.830 moment of armed struggle for their eventual independence. 00:09:41.200 --> 00:09:44.379 But that localized triumph really just masked 00:09:44.379 --> 00:09:46.600 the deeper rot in the Russian lines, didn't it? 00:09:46.600 --> 00:09:49.220 Oh, completely. Because the whiplash hits almost 00:09:49.220 --> 00:09:52.519 immediately. After two days of intense combat, 00:09:52.779 --> 00:09:54.899 those elite shock troops, the ones who carried 00:09:54.899 --> 00:09:57.840 the entire advance, are severely depleted. They 00:09:57.840 --> 00:10:00.399 take massive casualties. Right. And the regular 00:10:00.399 --> 00:10:02.580 infantry, who are supposed to follow up and secure 00:10:02.580 --> 00:10:05.279 the gains, they simply sit down. They decide 00:10:05.279 --> 00:10:07.299 they've done their part and they refuse to advance 00:10:07.299 --> 00:10:09.879 further. The momentum doesn't just stall. It 00:10:09.879 --> 00:10:12.700 evaporates. By the evening of the second day, 00:10:12.960 --> 00:10:15.220 the troops of the 7th Army are actively refusing 00:10:15.220 --> 00:10:18.259 attack orders. It all culminates in a catastrophic 00:10:18.259 --> 00:10:21.179 failure for the 1st Guards Corps on July 6th. 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:22.919 And these were supposed to be the reserves, right? 00:10:22.919 --> 00:10:25.179 Exactly. This was supposed to be the 11th Army's 00:10:25.179 --> 00:10:27.759 fresh reserve force. They're ordered into the 00:10:27.759 --> 00:10:30.679 assault, but the massive artillery barrage intended 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:33.240 to clear their path just never materializes. 00:10:33.600 --> 00:10:36.879 So they are sent charging into fully intact enemy 00:10:36.879 --> 00:10:39.220 fortifications. And the losses are horrific. 00:10:39.519 --> 00:10:42.600 Absolutely horrific. And the reaction is immediate 00:10:42.600 --> 00:10:45.240 mutiny. The chain of command completely shatters 00:10:45.240 --> 00:10:47.460 under the pressure. The core commander tries 00:10:47.460 --> 00:10:50.460 to arrest the political agitators in the ranks, 00:10:50.919 --> 00:10:53.320 which of course only pours gasoline on the fire. 00:10:53.529 --> 00:10:56.789 And the supreme irony here is that when reinforcements 00:10:56.789 --> 00:10:59.049 finally arrive from Petrograd to stabilize the 00:10:59.049 --> 00:11:01.490 line, they don't fire a single shot at the enemy. 00:11:01.789 --> 00:11:03.769 Not one. They actually spend their time spreading 00:11:03.769 --> 00:11:06.350 Bolshevik anti -war propaganda among the mutinying 00:11:06.350 --> 00:11:09.129 soldiers. They actively make it worse. Yes, they 00:11:09.129 --> 00:11:11.960 do. But while the northern front was paralyzed 00:11:11.960 --> 00:11:14.720 by its own newfound democracy, there was one 00:11:14.720 --> 00:11:17.340 commander who entirely rejected this political 00:11:17.340 --> 00:11:20.039 reality. Down in the south, the Eighth Army was 00:11:20.039 --> 00:11:22.200 only supposed to play a supporting role. Led 00:11:22.200 --> 00:11:25.879 by General Love Kornilov. Yes. And while the 00:11:25.879 --> 00:11:28.679 rest of the offensive was sputtering into mutiny, 00:11:29.240 --> 00:11:32.080 Kornilov's forces actually shattered the Austro 00:11:32.080 --> 00:11:35.019 -Hungarian lines. They advanced 30 kilometers, 00:11:35.399 --> 00:11:38.090 capturing the towns of Kalush and Galich. And 00:11:38.090 --> 00:11:40.950 Kornilov succeeded entirely because he refused 00:11:40.950 --> 00:11:44.029 to play by Kerensky's rules. I mean, he was fiercely 00:11:44.029 --> 00:11:46.730 pragmatic. He utilized committees of agitators 00:11:46.730 --> 00:11:49.769 to persuade his men when it suited him. But fundamentally, 00:11:49.929 --> 00:11:52.549 he was completely ruthless. He didn't tolerate 00:11:52.549 --> 00:11:54.750 the insubordination that was tearing apart the 00:11:54.750 --> 00:11:57.210 Northern armies. Ruthlessness was his defining 00:11:57.210 --> 00:12:00.259 trait. I mean, when Kornilov requested reinforcements 00:12:00.259 --> 00:12:02.720 to press his advantage, he received units from 00:12:02.720 --> 00:12:05.919 the 7th Army, the very troops who had been marinated 00:12:05.919 --> 00:12:08.740 in that Bolshevik anti -war propaganda. Right, 00:12:08.919 --> 00:12:11.620 the mutineers. Exactly. And when those soldiers 00:12:11.620 --> 00:12:13.679 arrived at the front and subsequently attempted 00:12:13.679 --> 00:12:16.279 to abandon their positions and retreat, Kornilov 00:12:16.279 --> 00:12:18.789 didn't negotiate. He turned his own machine guns 00:12:18.789 --> 00:12:21.230 and artillery on his clean troops. He literally 00:12:21.230 --> 00:12:23.409 slaughtered his own men to maintain the line. 00:12:23.549 --> 00:12:25.549 He did. And if we connect this to the bigger 00:12:25.549 --> 00:12:29.190 picture, Kornilov's brutal localized success 00:12:29.190 --> 00:12:31.389 fundamentally altered the political landscape 00:12:31.389 --> 00:12:34.590 in Petrograd. Well, because he was the only general 00:12:34.590 --> 00:12:37.350 delivering victories, his actions were heavily 00:12:37.350 --> 00:12:40.049 amplified in the Russian press. conservative 00:12:40.049 --> 00:12:42.750 circles, and even terrified leaders within the 00:12:42.750 --> 00:12:45.009 provisional government began to view Kornilov 00:12:45.009 --> 00:12:48.269 not just as a general, but as a potential strongman. 00:12:48.509 --> 00:12:51.909 Like a savior complex. Yes. They saw a savior 00:12:51.909 --> 00:12:54.490 figure who possessed the iron will necessary 00:12:54.490 --> 00:12:57.889 to restore order to a spiraling nation. But no 00:12:57.889 --> 00:13:00.009 amount of iron will could hold back the sheer 00:13:00.009 --> 00:13:03.580 weight of the German war machine. On July 19th, 00:13:03.659 --> 00:13:06.720 the Central Powers launch a massive counter -offensive. 00:13:07.139 --> 00:13:09.440 And the Russian Army doesn't just execute a tactical 00:13:09.440 --> 00:13:12.200 retreat, it completely disintegrates. Disintegrates 00:13:12.200 --> 00:13:14.700 is the right word. The 11th Army abandons its 00:13:14.700 --> 00:13:17.799 positions entirely. The 7th Army breaks. And 00:13:17.799 --> 00:13:20.759 soon, even Kornilov's 8th Army is forced into 00:13:20.759 --> 00:13:22.960 a rapid withdrawal because their northern flank 00:13:22.960 --> 00:13:25.840 has just ceased to exist. The scale of the collapse 00:13:25.840 --> 00:13:28.450 is difficult to comprehend. The Russian army 00:13:28.450 --> 00:13:31.210 has pushed back 120 kilometers in a matter of 00:13:31.210 --> 00:13:33.929 weeks. They hemorrhage all the hard -fought territorial 00:13:33.929 --> 00:13:36.269 gains they had secured during the Brusilov Offensive 00:13:36.269 --> 00:13:38.570 the previous year. All of it gone. Almost the 00:13:38.570 --> 00:13:41.029 entirety of eastern Galicia is retaken by the 00:13:41.029 --> 00:13:43.870 Central Powers. Now there is one operational 00:13:43.870 --> 00:13:45.889 bright spot during this collapse which we should 00:13:45.889 --> 00:13:48.830 briefly acknowledge impartially. Down in the 00:13:48.830 --> 00:13:52.080 Romanian theater Russo -Romanian forces actually 00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:54.379 mounted a successful defense against the Central 00:13:54.379 --> 00:13:57.000 Powers at places like Mareci and Mareti. Right. 00:13:57.059 --> 00:13:59.240 The Romanian campaign was a tactical success. 00:13:59.720 --> 00:14:02.179 The sight of the Romanian army effectively advancing 00:14:02.179 --> 00:14:05.080 and holding the line actually bolstered the morale 00:14:05.080 --> 00:14:07.159 of the Russian troops deployed in that specific 00:14:07.159 --> 00:14:09.860 sector. It prevented the complete conquest of 00:14:09.860 --> 00:14:12.500 Romania. But strategically? Strategically, in 00:14:12.500 --> 00:14:14.659 the broader context of the Eastern Front, it 00:14:14.659 --> 00:14:16.840 was irrelevant. The center of the Russian line 00:14:16.840 --> 00:14:19.220 had evaporated. So what does this all mean for 00:14:19.220 --> 00:14:21.779 you listening? We have an offensive that promised 00:14:21.779 --> 00:14:24.500 peace and delivered a 120 kilometer retreat, 00:14:24.840 --> 00:14:27.539 hundreds of thousands of casualties, but it's 00:14:27.539 --> 00:14:30.360 the political shockwaves back in Petrograd that 00:14:30.360 --> 00:14:33.480 truly reshape the 20th century. This is where 00:14:33.480 --> 00:14:35.980 the dominoes really start falling rapidly. The 00:14:35.980 --> 00:14:38.700 cascading consequences of this failure are immense. 00:14:39.039 --> 00:14:41.820 First, even before the offensive fully collapsed, 00:14:42.299 --> 00:14:44.080 the mere threat of being deployed to the front 00:14:44.080 --> 00:14:46.519 sparked the July Days in Petrograd. These were 00:14:46.519 --> 00:14:49.500 the massive protests, right? Yes. Violent uprisings 00:14:49.500 --> 00:14:52.039 by garrison soldiers and workers who were terrified 00:14:52.039 --> 00:14:55.039 of being sent into the meat grinder. The government 00:14:55.039 --> 00:14:57.539 barely survived the riots. And in the desperate 00:14:57.539 --> 00:14:59.600 aftermath of that, they turned to the one man 00:14:59.600 --> 00:15:02.200 who seemed to hold the army together. Kornilov 00:15:02.200 --> 00:15:04.539 is promoted. First, he has made commander of 00:15:04.539 --> 00:15:07.320 the southwestern front, and then Kerensky appoints 00:15:07.320 --> 00:15:10.039 him supreme commander of the entire Russian armed 00:15:10.039 --> 00:15:13.259 forces. Which sets the stage for the ultimate 00:15:13.259 --> 00:15:17.360 political miscalculation. Kornilov, riding high 00:15:17.360 --> 00:15:19.580 on conservative backing and disgusted by the 00:15:19.580 --> 00:15:21.860 weakness of the provisional government, reinstates 00:15:21.860 --> 00:15:24.200 the death penalty at the front and drastically 00:15:24.200 --> 00:15:26.179 limits the power of the soldiers' committees. 00:15:26.440 --> 00:15:29.120 He's rolling back the clock? Trying to, anyway. 00:15:29.450 --> 00:15:31.850 By September, he decides the only way to save 00:15:31.850 --> 00:15:34.429 Russia is to march his troops on Petrograd and 00:15:34.429 --> 00:15:37.190 crush the Soviet entirely. This becomes known 00:15:37.190 --> 00:15:39.789 as the Kornilov affair. A military coup that 00:15:39.789 --> 00:15:44.139 spectacularly backfires. Kerensky panics. To 00:15:44.139 --> 00:15:46.679 stop Kornilov's advancing troops, the provisional 00:15:46.679 --> 00:15:49.379 government and the moderate Soviet realize they 00:15:49.379 --> 00:15:51.519 don't have enough loyal soldiers left to defend 00:15:51.519 --> 00:15:53.580 themselves. They are completely out of options. 00:15:53.919 --> 00:15:57.320 So they turn to the radical fringes, they release 00:15:57.320 --> 00:16:00.480 imprisoned Bolshevik leaders, and crucially, 00:16:00.779 --> 00:16:05.080 they arm 25 ,000 Bolshevik workers, forming the 00:16:05.080 --> 00:16:07.320 Red Guards. This is the definitive turning point. 00:16:07.389 --> 00:16:10.169 Yeah. By launching the July offensive, the provisional 00:16:10.169 --> 00:16:12.330 government proved to the peasantry that they 00:16:12.330 --> 00:16:15.190 valued foreign alliances and war aims over Russian 00:16:15.190 --> 00:16:18.090 lives. They completely destroyed their credibility 00:16:18.090 --> 00:16:20.789 with the military. Yeah. And by appointing Kornilov, 00:16:20.850 --> 00:16:22.769 they alienated the working class and the political 00:16:22.769 --> 00:16:25.519 left. And then by crushing Kornelov's coup, they 00:16:25.519 --> 00:16:27.279 literally handed the weapons to the Bolsheviks. 00:16:27.360 --> 00:16:29.220 The provisional government essentially engineered 00:16:29.220 --> 00:16:31.980 its own obsolescence. Exactly. They provided 00:16:31.980 --> 00:16:34.720 the Bolsheviks with the exact influence, justification, 00:16:34.960 --> 00:16:36.860 and firepower required to launch the October 00:16:36.860 --> 00:16:40.480 Revolution just weeks later. It is an incredible 00:16:40.480 --> 00:16:44.009 historical tragedy. The Kerensky Offensive was 00:16:44.009 --> 00:16:47.289 designed to be the ultimate unifying force. It 00:16:47.289 --> 00:16:50.669 was supposed to legitimize a new democratic Russia 00:16:50.669 --> 00:16:54.309 on the world stage. Instead, it served as the 00:16:54.309 --> 00:16:57.230 exact catalyst that fractured the military and 00:16:57.230 --> 00:16:59.809 handed the nation to Lenin. It's a stark lesson 00:16:59.809 --> 00:17:02.490 in the limits of political rhetoric against military 00:17:02.490 --> 00:17:05.390 reality. And there is a final detail here that 00:17:05.390 --> 00:17:07.609 underscores the profound avoidability of this 00:17:07.609 --> 00:17:10.119 tragedy. Tell me. Months before the offensive 00:17:10.119 --> 00:17:12.920 even began, a delegation from the United States, 00:17:13.099 --> 00:17:15.559 led by former Secretary of State Elihu Root, 00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:18.680 traveled to Russia. Root met extensively with 00:17:18.680 --> 00:17:21.019 the Russian leadership and strongly advised them 00:17:21.019 --> 00:17:23.019 against launching any offensive operations. He 00:17:23.019 --> 00:17:25.079 saw the writing on the wall. He recognized the 00:17:25.079 --> 00:17:27.900 fragility of the democratized army. He argued 00:17:27.900 --> 00:17:29.920 that the troops needed time to recover from the 00:17:29.920 --> 00:17:32.200 political upheaval. But more importantly, his 00:17:32.200 --> 00:17:34.619 strategic assessment was that Russia didn't need 00:17:34.619 --> 00:17:37.079 to attack to be useful. Right, because of the 00:17:37.079 --> 00:17:40.069 two -front war. Precisely. Simply by staying 00:17:40.069 --> 00:17:42.289 nominally at war and holding their trenches, 00:17:42.910 --> 00:17:45.289 Russia was forcing Germany to keep dozens of 00:17:45.289 --> 00:17:47.869 divisions tied down on the Eastern Front. Their 00:17:47.869 --> 00:17:50.450 mere presence was a massive strategic service 00:17:50.450 --> 00:17:52.569 to the Allies. They just needed to hold the line. 00:17:52.750 --> 00:17:55.230 They didn't need to advance an inch. That's it. 00:17:55.650 --> 00:17:57.410 And this raises an important question for you 00:17:57.410 --> 00:18:00.720 to ponder. What if Kerensky and the Provisional 00:18:00.720 --> 00:18:03.539 Government had simply listened to that pragmatic 00:18:03.539 --> 00:18:06.799 advice? What if they had accepted the reality 00:18:06.799 --> 00:18:09.740 of their exhausted military, stayed on the defensive, 00:18:10.140 --> 00:18:12.299 and let the revolutionary fervor cool down in 00:18:12.299 --> 00:18:15.000 the trenches? Could the complete disintegration 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:17.460 of the Army, the subsequent arming of the Bolsheviks, 00:18:17.539 --> 00:18:19.619 and the entire geopolitical trajectory of the 00:18:19.619 --> 00:18:22.420 Soviet century have been avoided simply by choosing 00:18:22.420 --> 00:18:25.789 to do nothing? That is a staggering historical 00:18:25.789 --> 00:18:28.390 what -if to leave on. Sometimes the most consequential 00:18:28.390 --> 00:18:31.329 action really is inaction. Thank you so much 00:18:31.329 --> 00:18:33.750 for joining us on this deep dive. We hope this 00:18:33.750 --> 00:18:36.230 exploration of the Kerensky Offensive gave you 00:18:36.230 --> 00:18:38.970 a few of those aha moments and a deeper understanding 00:18:38.970 --> 00:18:41.069 of the fragile moments that shape our world. 00:18:41.509 --> 00:18:43.369 Keep questioning the historical narratives you 00:18:43.369 --> 00:18:45.190 think you know and we'll see you next time.