WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.439 Welcome to today's Deep Dive. We are really thrilled 00:00:03.439 --> 00:00:06.700 you could join us today. We're pulling our source 00:00:06.700 --> 00:00:09.060 material from this truly incredible historical 00:00:09.060 --> 00:00:12.099 record, detailing an event known as the Package 00:00:12.099 --> 00:00:14.339 Q strike. Yeah, thanks for having me. It really 00:00:14.339 --> 00:00:16.780 is a phenomenal piece of history. And I think 00:00:16.780 --> 00:00:20.039 what stands out immediately is how it completely 00:00:20.039 --> 00:00:23.120 defies your expectations of a typical military 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:26.269 narrative. Right. It's not what you think. And 00:00:26.269 --> 00:00:28.750 the mission of our deep dive today is to take 00:00:28.750 --> 00:00:32.590 you back to the 1991 Gulf War. We are going to 00:00:32.590 --> 00:00:34.990 explore the largest airstrike of that entire 00:00:34.990 --> 00:00:36.990 war. Which also happens to be the largest single 00:00:36.990 --> 00:00:39.429 strike of F -16 fighter jets in all of military 00:00:39.429 --> 00:00:42.210 history. Exactly. But more importantly, the real 00:00:42.210 --> 00:00:45.270 goal today is to unpack exactly how and why this 00:00:45.270 --> 00:00:47.969 sprawling, heavily armed operation completely 00:00:47.969 --> 00:00:51.189 unraveled. It is basically a master class in 00:00:51.189 --> 00:00:53.369 how complex systems fail. Which makes it highly 00:00:53.369 --> 00:00:55.170 relevant. And to you, the listener, regardless 00:00:55.170 --> 00:00:57.170 of your background or what you do for a living. 00:00:57.289 --> 00:00:59.170 Yeah, absolutely. Whether you are prepping for 00:00:59.170 --> 00:01:01.890 a high stakes boardroom presentation or managing 00:01:01.890 --> 00:01:05.790 a sprawling team project or, I mean, trying to 00:01:05.790 --> 00:01:08.049 organize a complicated family reunion across 00:01:08.049 --> 00:01:10.790 multiple time zones. A logistical nightmare in 00:01:10.790 --> 00:01:13.650 itself. Right. This historical event is the ultimate 00:01:13.650 --> 00:01:16.409 case study. It perfectly illustrates how a cascade 00:01:16.409 --> 00:01:20.530 of tiny, just seemingly insignificant last minute 00:01:20.530 --> 00:01:23.530 changes can trigger an absolute disaster. Okay, 00:01:23.590 --> 00:01:25.230 let's unpack this. We need to talk about the 00:01:25.230 --> 00:01:27.409 blueprint of this mission right out of the gate. 00:01:27.489 --> 00:01:30.730 Set the scene for us. Just how big was Package 00:01:30.730 --> 00:01:33.390 Q? To give you a sense of the sheer scale here, 00:01:33.510 --> 00:01:36.810 we are talking about an attack force of 78 aircraft 00:01:36.810 --> 00:01:41.129 in total. Wow. And out of those 78, an unprecedented 00:01:41.129 --> 00:01:45.090 56 of them were F -16 Fighting Falcons. Coordinating 00:01:45.090 --> 00:01:47.730 78 high -performance aircraft to fly in a synchronized 00:01:47.730 --> 00:01:50.189 strike package is an immense logistical challenge, 00:01:50.250 --> 00:01:51.969 even under perfect conditions. Right, because 00:01:51.969 --> 00:01:54.489 every single... plane has a rigid time on target 00:01:54.489 --> 00:01:56.810 down to the actual second. Exactly, down to the 00:01:56.810 --> 00:01:59.069 second. And the conditions they were flying into 00:01:59.069 --> 00:02:02.159 were definitely not perfect. From what I understand 00:02:02.159 --> 00:02:05.340 in the sources, the primary target for this armada 00:02:05.340 --> 00:02:08.400 was the Tawitha Nuclear Research Center. Yes, 00:02:08.479 --> 00:02:11.719 which housed the Osirak nuclear reactor located 00:02:11.719 --> 00:02:13.680 right near Baghdad. And it was a well -known 00:02:13.680 --> 00:02:15.460 target that had actually been attacked before. 00:02:15.659 --> 00:02:18.319 Multiple times. Right, by the Iranian Air Force 00:02:18.319 --> 00:02:20.939 in 1980 and then again by the Israeli Air Force 00:02:20.939 --> 00:02:24.120 in 1981. So the defenders absolutely knew people 00:02:24.120 --> 00:02:26.120 wanted to blow it up. They were ready for it. 00:02:26.139 --> 00:02:28.819 They were ready. But the night before the strike... 00:02:29.039 --> 00:02:31.039 Military commanders made a tweak to the plan, 00:02:31.159 --> 00:02:33.979 didn't they? They did. At the 11th hour, planners 00:02:33.979 --> 00:02:36.860 decided to add three more main targets right 00:02:36.860 --> 00:02:39.159 in downtown Baghdad. So they add these downtown 00:02:39.159 --> 00:02:41.639 targets the night before. How does that change 00:02:41.639 --> 00:02:44.500 things for the F -16 pilots? Because the air 00:02:44.500 --> 00:02:46.379 commanders didn't get these orders until the 00:02:46.379 --> 00:02:49.139 night of January 18th. Right. That leaves zero 00:02:49.139 --> 00:02:51.680 time to rewrite the broader flight plans. It 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:53.599 completely changed their weight and their flight 00:02:53.599 --> 00:02:56.699 path. To survive hitting those new downtown targets, 00:02:57.000 --> 00:02:59.939 the F -16s had to be loaded down like pack mules. 00:03:00.099 --> 00:03:02.599 Just incredibly heavy. We're talking Mark 84 00:03:02.599 --> 00:03:06.060 bombs and dual external fuel tanks strapped straight 00:03:06.060 --> 00:03:08.180 to the wings. Plus, the sources mentioned they 00:03:08.180 --> 00:03:10.780 were carrying 90 bundles of chaff and 15 flares. 00:03:11.610 --> 00:03:13.629 For those of us who aren't, you know, flying 00:03:13.629 --> 00:03:15.909 fighter jets on the weekends, what exactly are 00:03:15.909 --> 00:03:18.810 chaff and flares doing for them? It is all about 00:03:18.810 --> 00:03:22.129 tricking the enemy's air defenses. Chaff is essentially 00:03:22.129 --> 00:03:25.449 thousands of tiny strips of metal or fiberglass. 00:03:25.770 --> 00:03:28.770 Okay. The plane ejects it into the air to create 00:03:28.770 --> 00:03:32.110 this massive cloud, and that cloud blinds enemy 00:03:32.110 --> 00:03:35.669 radar systems. Flares, on the other hand, burn 00:03:35.669 --> 00:03:38.500 incredibly hot. They're dropped to distract heat 00:03:38.500 --> 00:03:40.439 -seeking missiles away from the jet's engine 00:03:40.439 --> 00:03:42.560 exhaust. Got it. So they're defensive tools. 00:03:42.919 --> 00:03:46.120 Exactly. But all of this added significant weight 00:03:46.120 --> 00:03:48.039 to aircraft that are fundamentally designed to 00:03:48.039 --> 00:03:51.300 be light, fast, and agile. Wow. So you have these 00:03:51.300 --> 00:03:53.639 heavily burdened F -16s, and they aren't flying 00:03:53.639 --> 00:03:55.740 alone. The plan included S -sports, but there 00:03:55.740 --> 00:03:57.479 was a major disparity there too, wasn't there? 00:03:57.539 --> 00:03:59.800 Yes, there was. The F -16s were accompanied by 00:03:59.800 --> 00:04:02.599 F -4G aircraft, which are famously known as Wild 00:04:02.599 --> 00:04:05.479 Weasels. Wild Weasels. Right. These are specialized 00:04:05.479 --> 00:04:08.240 jets designed specifically to suppress enemy 00:04:08.240 --> 00:04:11.560 air defenses. Their sole job is to hunt down 00:04:11.560 --> 00:04:14.039 and destroy the radar systems that guide the 00:04:14.039 --> 00:04:16.170 surface -to -air missiles, or SAMs. But there 00:04:16.170 --> 00:04:18.610 was an issue with their loadout. A huge issue 00:04:18.610 --> 00:04:22.149 because Baghdad was so incredibly far from the 00:04:22.149 --> 00:04:24.810 coalition airfields. And because those older 00:04:24.810 --> 00:04:27.889 F -4s burned fuel at a very high rate, they had 00:04:27.889 --> 00:04:29.930 to be lightly loaded just to make the round trip. 00:04:30.050 --> 00:04:32.850 The sources say each Wild Weasel only carried 00:04:32.850 --> 00:04:35.610 two harm anti -radiation missiles. Just two. 00:04:35.709 --> 00:04:38.250 And just to clarify for the listener, anti -radiation 00:04:38.250 --> 00:04:40.350 sounds a bit like we're talking about nuclear 00:04:40.350 --> 00:04:42.230 fallout or something out of a sci -fi movie. 00:04:42.509 --> 00:04:44.810 What does that mean in this context? Good question. 00:04:45.230 --> 00:04:46.889 It has nothing to do with nuclear weapons. In 00:04:46.889 --> 00:04:49.550 this context, radiation refers to the radio waves 00:04:49.550 --> 00:04:51.949 emitted by the enemy radar dishes. Oh, I see. 00:04:52.050 --> 00:04:54.189 The HARM missile acts sort of like a bloodhound. 00:04:54.230 --> 00:04:56.449 It locks onto those invisible radar waves and 00:04:56.449 --> 00:04:58.430 rides them all the way down to destroy the actual 00:04:58.430 --> 00:05:01.110 dish broadcasting them. So you only have two 00:05:01.110 --> 00:05:03.850 of these radar hunting missiles per escort jet. 00:05:04.269 --> 00:05:06.509 And the defenses they were flying into over Baghdad 00:05:06.509 --> 00:05:09.910 were a total nightmare. Oh, beyond a nightmare. 00:05:10.110 --> 00:05:12.470 The source material outlines that Baghdad was 00:05:12.470 --> 00:05:14.910 the most heavily defended area in all of Iraq. 00:05:15.250 --> 00:05:18.290 We are talking about thousands of SAM sites. 00:05:18.449 --> 00:05:21.310 Thousands. They had World War II era flak guns 00:05:21.310 --> 00:05:24.129 that literally just throw a wall of jagged metal 00:05:24.129 --> 00:05:27.370 into the sky. alongside state -of -the -art interceptors 00:05:27.370 --> 00:05:29.509 equipped with guided missiles. And don't forget 00:05:29.509 --> 00:05:32.029 the air bases. Right. The Iraqis had several 00:05:32.029 --> 00:05:34.589 air bases within striking distance housing MiG 00:05:34.589 --> 00:05:37.089 -29 fighter jets that could be scrambled in minutes. 00:05:37.290 --> 00:05:40.779 It was quite literally a hornet's nest. Which 00:05:40.779 --> 00:05:43.740 brings us to a crucial concept in complex systems 00:05:43.740 --> 00:05:46.639 and particularly in military strategy, which 00:05:46.639 --> 00:05:49.819 is friction. Friction. Friction refers to the 00:05:49.819 --> 00:05:52.220 compounding stresses and minor incidents that 00:05:52.220 --> 00:05:55.259 on their own might not be catastrophic. But together, 00:05:55.300 --> 00:05:57.300 when you stack them up, they create a dangerous, 00:05:57.519 --> 00:06:00.740 completely unmanageable situation. And the first 00:06:00.740 --> 00:06:02.920 dominoes of that friction started falling on 00:06:02.920 --> 00:06:05.459 the afternoon of January 19th when the aircraft 00:06:05.459 --> 00:06:07.899 launched from their bases in Saudi Arabia and 00:06:07.899 --> 00:06:10.189 Qatar. It really did. OK, so the. The plan is 00:06:10.189 --> 00:06:12.829 already stretched thin with the late target additions 00:06:12.829 --> 00:06:16.310 and the heavy bomb loads. But surely once they 00:06:16.310 --> 00:06:19.269 were in the air, things smoothed out a bit. Quite 00:06:19.269 --> 00:06:22.790 the opposite, unfortunately. The very first major 00:06:22.790 --> 00:06:25.930 friction point occurred during the midair refueling 00:06:25.930 --> 00:06:28.910 phase, long before they ever even saw an enemy. 00:06:29.029 --> 00:06:31.329 So right away. Right away. They were supposed 00:06:31.329 --> 00:06:33.389 to meet up with tanker aircraft near the Iraqi 00:06:33.389 --> 00:06:36.379 border. But there was terrible weather along 00:06:36.379 --> 00:06:38.779 the tanker tracks. Because of the storms and 00:06:38.779 --> 00:06:41.160 the rigid timing, the tankers actually approached 00:06:41.160 --> 00:06:43.889 the release point way too early. And what happens 00:06:43.889 --> 00:06:46.269 when a massive flying gas station arrives early 00:06:46.269 --> 00:06:48.790 to a rendezvous? The tankers had to throttle 00:06:48.790 --> 00:06:51.069 back to their absolute minimum speed so they 00:06:51.069 --> 00:06:53.230 wouldn't accidentally cross into enemy territory 00:06:53.230 --> 00:06:56.329 prematurely. Oh, wow. Now think back to the F 00:06:56.329 --> 00:06:58.629 -16s. Remember how heavy they were? Loaded down 00:06:58.629 --> 00:07:02.069 with bombs, external fuel tanks, chaff, flares. 00:07:02.069 --> 00:07:04.230 They were flying like flying bricks. Exactly. 00:07:04.699 --> 00:07:06.860 When the tanker slowed down to minimum speed, 00:07:07.060 --> 00:07:09.500 those heavy F -16s trying to connect to the fuel 00:07:09.500 --> 00:07:12.199 booms were suddenly right on the edge of an aerodynamic 00:07:12.199 --> 00:07:14.120 stall. Because they just weren't moving fast 00:07:14.120 --> 00:07:16.600 enough. They were going way too slow to generate 00:07:16.600 --> 00:07:19.399 lift for that much weight. Some of the pilots 00:07:19.399 --> 00:07:22.160 actually had to ignite their afterburners, which 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:24.740 dumps raw fuel into the engine for a massive 00:07:24.740 --> 00:07:27.600 burst of thrust just to avoid falling out of 00:07:27.600 --> 00:07:29.399 the sky behind the tankers. That sounds like 00:07:29.399 --> 00:07:31.060 a complete nightmare. You're trying to top off 00:07:31.060 --> 00:07:33.079 your gas tank and you have to burn massive amounts 00:07:33.079 --> 00:07:35.899 of your own fuel just to stay connected to the 00:07:35.899 --> 00:07:38.319 pump. It is a perfect example of what systems 00:07:38.319 --> 00:07:40.899 engineers call tight coupling. Tight coupling. 00:07:40.959 --> 00:07:43.220 In a tightly coupled system, there is no slack. 00:07:43.610 --> 00:07:47.310 One small, deviation -like bad weather causing 00:07:47.310 --> 00:07:51.029 a tanker to slow down immediately cascades into 00:07:51.029 --> 00:07:54.879 a critical failure somewhere else. It was so 00:07:54.879 --> 00:07:57.899 bad that four fighters coming off the very last 00:07:57.899 --> 00:08:00.240 tanker fell so far behind the rest of the group 00:08:00.240 --> 00:08:02.259 that their mission commander had to order them 00:08:02.259 --> 00:08:04.680 to abort the mission and return to base. Wow. 00:08:04.879 --> 00:08:07.319 They hadn't even entered enemy airspace yet and 00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:09.519 the strike package was already shrinking. Already 00:08:09.519 --> 00:08:11.920 losing planes. Then they finally crossed the 00:08:11.920 --> 00:08:14.459 border. As the armada reaches the airspace over 00:08:14.459 --> 00:08:17.879 Baghdad, the clouds break and the Iraqi defenders 00:08:17.879 --> 00:08:20.220 are just waiting for them. Waiting and ready. 00:08:20.420 --> 00:08:23.430 Imagine. You are the listener sitting in that 00:08:23.430 --> 00:08:26.600 cockpit. You're approaching the capital and suddenly 00:08:26.600 --> 00:08:29.740 Iraqi gunners start firing high altitude shots 00:08:29.740 --> 00:08:32.580 from 100 millimeter anti -aircraft guns. Huge 00:08:32.580 --> 00:08:36.179 weapons. These are massive explosive shells bursting 00:08:36.179 --> 00:08:38.460 right in the middle of the American formations. 00:08:38.820 --> 00:08:41.879 It instantly added chaos and disarray to the 00:08:41.879 --> 00:08:44.019 heavy flak that was already filling the lower 00:08:44.019 --> 00:08:46.559 sky. And with that chaos comes a severe breakdown 00:08:46.559 --> 00:08:49.120 in coordination. The communication network became 00:08:49.120 --> 00:08:51.220 completely overwhelmed. Just too many people 00:08:51.220 --> 00:08:54.100 talking at once. Way too many. The mission commander 00:08:54.100 --> 00:08:56.120 who was leading the flight specifically targeting 00:08:56.120 --> 00:08:59.019 downtown Baghdad later estimated that he received 00:08:59.019 --> 00:09:01.840 approximately 80 percent of the radio calls from 00:09:01.840 --> 00:09:04.120 all the aircraft in the entire strike package. 00:09:04.340 --> 00:09:06.519 How is that even physically possible? You have 00:09:06.519 --> 00:09:09.200 one pilot trying to fly his own jet through a 00:09:09.200 --> 00:09:12.419 maze of explosive anti -aircraft fire while simultaneously 00:09:12.419 --> 00:09:14.980 fielding 80 percent of the radio traffic for 00:09:14.980 --> 00:09:18.000 an armada of 70 plus planes. It's the definition 00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:21.450 of system overload. The human brain simply cannot 00:09:21.450 --> 00:09:24.629 process that much data while performing a life 00:09:24.629 --> 00:09:28.700 or death physical task. And this is exactly when 00:09:28.700 --> 00:09:30.980 the fatal flaw in the planning really revealed 00:09:30.980 --> 00:09:33.840 itself. The escorts. The wild weasels. The F 00:09:33.840 --> 00:09:36.500 -4 escorts, whose sole job was to destroy the 00:09:36.500 --> 00:09:39.259 enemy radar, started running into major problems. 00:09:39.539 --> 00:09:41.379 Either because of their high fuel consumption, 00:09:41.639 --> 00:09:44.059 the strict timing of the operation, or decisions 00:09:44.059 --> 00:09:46.980 made by the package commander in the chaos, not 00:09:46.980 --> 00:09:48.940 all of the allocated weasels even made it to 00:09:48.940 --> 00:09:51.450 Baghdad. Here's where it gets really interesting. 00:09:51.669 --> 00:09:53.990 And by interesting, I mean terrifying. Truly 00:09:53.990 --> 00:09:56.669 terrifying. The F -16s heading downtown had newer, 00:09:56.750 --> 00:09:58.629 more powerful engines. So they were pushing ahead, 00:09:58.870 --> 00:10:01.450 passing other F -16s that were rolling in on 00:10:01.450 --> 00:10:04.110 the nuclear reactor. Right. But while these downtown 00:10:04.110 --> 00:10:06.009 bound jets were still making their way to the 00:10:06.009 --> 00:10:08.649 center of the city, the F -4 Wild Weasels ran 00:10:08.649 --> 00:10:10.990 low on fuel. They had to depart. They had no 00:10:10.990 --> 00:10:14.200 choice. And the F -15C aircraft. The top cover 00:10:14.200 --> 00:10:16.679 fighters, whose job was specifically to protect 00:10:16.679 --> 00:10:18.860 the bombers from enemy planes, they apparently 00:10:18.860 --> 00:10:21.679 left early as well. So the F -16s were suddenly 00:10:21.679 --> 00:10:24.659 left completely alone over downtown Baghdad. 00:10:24.840 --> 00:10:27.899 Alone. Facing the capital city's air defenses 00:10:27.899 --> 00:10:31.500 with absolutely zero radar suppression and zero 00:10:31.500 --> 00:10:34.769 fighter escorts. To truly understand the reality 00:10:34.769 --> 00:10:37.590 of what that meant, we have to look at the specific 00:10:37.590 --> 00:10:41.190 experience of Major John Nichols. He was commanding 00:10:41.190 --> 00:10:43.669 a flight tasked with striking the Iraqi Air Force 00:10:43.669 --> 00:10:46.759 headquarters. Okay. Just as he was rolling his 00:10:46.759 --> 00:10:49.580 F -16 in to strike his target, he heard the chilling 00:10:49.580 --> 00:10:52.039 radio call from the wild weasels announcing that 00:10:52.039 --> 00:10:54.440 they were leaving the area. And as if that wasn't 00:10:54.440 --> 00:10:56.759 bad enough, as Major Nichols rolled in, cloud 00:10:56.759 --> 00:10:59.259 cover completely obscured the headquarters. He 00:10:59.259 --> 00:11:01.480 couldn't even see the target he was risking his 00:11:01.480 --> 00:11:04.259 life for. Terrible timing. So under heavy fire, 00:11:04.360 --> 00:11:06.580 he had to roll off and avert to an alternate 00:11:06.580 --> 00:11:08.980 target, which was an oil refinery that was currently 00:11:08.980 --> 00:11:11.000 being attacked by another part of his formation. 00:11:11.299 --> 00:11:13.559 And at this exact moment. The Iraqis executed 00:11:13.559 --> 00:11:15.879 a brilliant and honestly terrifying tactical 00:11:15.879 --> 00:11:18.600 shift. Up to this point in the attack, the Iraqi 00:11:18.600 --> 00:11:20.580 defenders had been firing most of their surface 00:11:20.580 --> 00:11:22.820 -to -air missiles ballistically. What does it 00:11:22.820 --> 00:11:26.559 mean to fire a SAM ballistically? It means firing 00:11:26.559 --> 00:11:28.440 them completely unguided. They were essentially 00:11:28.440 --> 00:11:30.679 just shooting them up into the air like giant 00:11:30.679 --> 00:11:33.460 dumb rockets, hoping a coalition jet would accidentally 00:11:33.460 --> 00:11:35.919 fly into one. Just putting up a wall of explosives? 00:11:36.120 --> 00:11:38.279 Right. But shortly after the weasels announced 00:11:38.279 --> 00:11:40.879 they were leaving... Taking the radar jamming 00:11:40.879 --> 00:11:42.899 threat with them, the Iraqis flipped the switch. 00:11:43.399 --> 00:11:45.960 Suddenly, they turned their targeting radars 00:11:45.960 --> 00:11:48.759 fully on. Because the threat to their radars 00:11:48.759 --> 00:11:51.980 was gone. Exactly. The SAMs were no longer flying 00:11:51.980 --> 00:11:54.360 blind. They were guided. They were locked onto 00:11:54.360 --> 00:11:57.299 direct calculated trajectories aimed explicitly 00:11:57.299 --> 00:11:59.919 at Major Nichols' flight. So the missiles are 00:11:59.919 --> 00:12:02.700 now actively hunting them. The sources detail 00:12:02.700 --> 00:12:05.519 that the pilots were forced to take extreme evasive 00:12:05.519 --> 00:12:07.779 action. They were doing what the military calls 00:12:07.779 --> 00:12:11.100 last ditch maneuvers. Pulling massive G -forces. 00:12:11.240 --> 00:12:13.620 Right. When a radar guided missile is locked 00:12:13.620 --> 00:12:15.639 onto your jet, you need to shed weight immediately 00:12:15.639 --> 00:12:18.460 so you can turn faster. The pilots were forced 00:12:18.460 --> 00:12:21.259 to jettison their heavy external fuel tanks and 00:12:21.259 --> 00:12:23.559 they had to drop their bombs right there, completely 00:12:23.559 --> 00:12:26.279 abandoning the mission targets just to try and 00:12:26.279 --> 00:12:29.419 survive. And even shedding that weight, the sheer 00:12:29.419 --> 00:12:31.679 volume of missiles in the air was staggering. 00:12:32.039 --> 00:12:35.080 In all, the participants in this engagement counted 00:12:35.080 --> 00:12:38.019 20 surface -to -air missiles in the air at the 00:12:38.019 --> 00:12:40.759 exact same time. Unbelievable. One individual 00:12:40.759 --> 00:12:44.600 pilot had to dodge no fewer than six SAMs fired 00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:47.340 directly at him. There is a transcript from the 00:12:47.340 --> 00:12:49.679 video tape recorder, the VTR tape from one of 00:12:49.679 --> 00:12:51.940 the jets that day, and reading it just makes 00:12:51.940 --> 00:12:54.100 your blood run cold. It puts you right there 00:12:54.100 --> 00:12:56.080 in the cockpit. It's harrowing. It starts with 00:12:56.080 --> 00:12:58.039 a warning. Warning system blaring. Okay. SAM 00:12:58.039 --> 00:13:00.759 launch. Nose five low. Then you hear frantic 00:13:00.759 --> 00:13:02.259 interruptions from the air controller. Break 00:13:02.259 --> 00:13:04.379 right. Break right. Okay. Missed him. And then 00:13:04.379 --> 00:13:06.899 the impact. Right. Stroke one's a hit. Stroke 00:13:06.899 --> 00:13:09.139 one's a hit. Stroke one took a hit. Stroke one 00:13:09.139 --> 00:13:11.779 took a hit. Status. And the pilot responds, surprisingly 00:13:11.779 --> 00:13:16.600 calm. Okay. I got a fire. I'm a standby. Just 00:13:16.600 --> 00:13:19.399 south of steer point number seven. Still flying. 00:13:20.240 --> 00:13:23.039 And I'm heading south. It is incredible how level 00:13:23.039 --> 00:13:25.759 -headed he remains while his jet is literally 00:13:25.759 --> 00:13:28.159 on fire. Before we finish the transcript, what 00:13:28.159 --> 00:13:30.460 is steer point number seven? Oh, a steer point 00:13:30.460 --> 00:13:33.620 is simply a pre -programmed geographical waypoint 00:13:33.620 --> 00:13:36.919 in the aircraft's navigation system. He was letting 00:13:36.919 --> 00:13:38.980 the rest of the package know his exact coordinates 00:13:38.980 --> 00:13:41.860 so they could track him if he had to eject. Got 00:13:41.860 --> 00:13:43.840 it. So he says he's heading south. The controller 00:13:43.840 --> 00:13:47.399 says copy. And the pilot replies, okay, we took 00:13:47.399 --> 00:13:49.620 a pretty good hit. I've got no engine. Yeah, 00:13:49.639 --> 00:13:52.320 that pilot took a direct hit. And the casualties 00:13:52.320 --> 00:13:55.519 from this barrage were significant. One F -16 00:13:55.519 --> 00:13:58.740 was hit by a SAM just as the very last bombs 00:13:58.740 --> 00:14:00.740 were striking the oil refinery. And there was 00:14:00.740 --> 00:14:03.139 a second one, right? Yes, a second missile exploded 00:14:03.139 --> 00:14:06.399 near another F -16, severely damaging it as the 00:14:06.399 --> 00:14:08.600 flight desperately tried to evade the crossfire 00:14:08.600 --> 00:14:11.269 and get out of the airspace over Baghdad. Both 00:14:11.269 --> 00:14:13.629 of those aircraft were completely lost. The truly 00:14:13.629 --> 00:14:16.129 wild detail here is that one of those lost aircraft 00:14:16.129 --> 00:14:18.610 actually took a hit from an SA -3 missile just 00:14:18.610 --> 00:14:21.590 south of Baghdad. But the pilot somehow managed 00:14:21.590 --> 00:14:24.169 to keep that burning, severely damaged jet in 00:14:24.169 --> 00:14:28.269 the air. He flew for 150 miles on the return 00:14:28.269 --> 00:14:30.610 route south before the engine finally seized 00:14:30.610 --> 00:14:34.019 up and died. Both of those pilots survived their 00:14:34.019 --> 00:14:36.799 crashes, but they were captured and became prisoners 00:14:36.799 --> 00:14:39.440 of war for the remainder of the conflict. And 00:14:39.440 --> 00:14:42.120 escaping that wall of Sam's... wasn't the end 00:14:42.120 --> 00:14:44.840 of the ordeal. As the surviving aircraft desperately 00:14:44.840 --> 00:14:47.960 tried to leave Baghdad, the situation escalated 00:14:47.960 --> 00:14:50.820 yet again. Of course it did. Eight Iraqi MiG 00:14:50.820 --> 00:14:53.299 -29 fighter jets started closing in toward the 00:14:53.299 --> 00:14:56.200 rear of the fleeing F -16 formation. And remember, 00:14:56.399 --> 00:14:59.419 the top cover, the F -15Cs, whose whole job was 00:14:59.419 --> 00:15:02.100 to fight off those exact MiGs, had already left 00:15:02.100 --> 00:15:04.360 the area. They were long gone. So the F -16s 00:15:04.360 --> 00:15:06.000 are battered, they've dropped their bombs, they've 00:15:06.000 --> 00:15:08.559 dumped their external fuel tanks to survive the 00:15:08.559 --> 00:15:11.649 SAMs, and now they have eight fresh enemy fighters 00:15:11.649 --> 00:15:13.789 on their tail. It's a worst case scenario. But 00:15:13.789 --> 00:15:16.809 instead of just running, the undamaged F -16s 00:15:16.809 --> 00:15:19.029 actually turned around to attack the MiGs. And 00:15:19.029 --> 00:15:21.450 amazingly, when the F -16s bravely turned to 00:15:21.450 --> 00:15:24.570 fight, the Iraqi pilots fled. It was an incredibly 00:15:24.570 --> 00:15:27.210 bold move by the coalition pilots. But turning 00:15:27.210 --> 00:15:29.590 back to fight cost them dearly in terms of their 00:15:29.590 --> 00:15:32.049 most precious resource at that moment, which 00:15:32.049 --> 00:15:33.990 was fuel. Because they had dropped their external 00:15:33.990 --> 00:15:36.409 tank. Exactly. Because of all the intense defensive 00:15:36.409 --> 00:15:39.370 maneuvering, dodging SAMs, dumping those tanks, 00:15:39.470 --> 00:15:42.610 and using afterburners, by the time the F -16s 00:15:42.610 --> 00:15:45.169 approached the border to get out of Iraq, some 00:15:45.169 --> 00:15:47.750 were essentially flying on fumes. One source 00:15:47.750 --> 00:15:51.389 calls it an eye -watering situation. One specific 00:15:51.389 --> 00:15:54.309 F -16 was down to just 800 pounds of fuel on 00:15:54.309 --> 00:15:57.070 board. That is absolutely nothing for a jet like 00:15:57.070 --> 00:15:59.080 that. It's minutes of flight time. That fighter 00:15:59.080 --> 00:16:01.500 was unequivocally going to crash short of coalition 00:16:01.500 --> 00:16:04.019 territory. It was a guaranteed loss. But then 00:16:04.019 --> 00:16:07.840 a KC -135 tanker aircraft from the Kansas Air 00:16:07.840 --> 00:16:10.220 National Guard made an unbelievable decision. 00:16:10.519 --> 00:16:12.539 This is one of the most remarkable human elements 00:16:12.539 --> 00:16:16.149 of the whole operation. A KC -135 is essentially 00:16:16.149 --> 00:16:20.070 a modified Boeing 707 airliner. It is a slow, 00:16:20.070 --> 00:16:22.710 lumbering, completely unarmed flying gas station. 00:16:22.789 --> 00:16:25.350 The crew of that tanker risked absolutely everything, 00:16:25.549 --> 00:16:27.389 breaking protocol and crossing over the border 00:16:27.389 --> 00:16:30.269 directly into hostile enemy territory with zero 00:16:30.269 --> 00:16:32.830 fighter escort. Wow. They met the starving F 00:16:32.830 --> 00:16:36.590 -16 and refueled it midair over enemy soil, saving 00:16:36.590 --> 00:16:38.870 the pilot from a guaranteed crash. Just staggering 00:16:38.870 --> 00:16:41.529 bravery. If we connect this to the bigger picture. 00:16:42.649 --> 00:16:45.090 The aftermath of this massive, highly complex 00:16:45.090 --> 00:16:48.990 operation is pretty sobering. The primary mission 00:16:48.990 --> 00:16:51.509 goal was largely unmet. Right, because of all 00:16:51.509 --> 00:16:54.409 that chaos. The nuclear reactors at the research 00:16:54.409 --> 00:16:57.149 facility were only slightly damaged. In fact, 00:16:57.250 --> 00:17:00.190 they required later attacks by F -117 stealth 00:17:00.190 --> 00:17:02.529 bombers to cause any significant destruction. 00:17:03.190 --> 00:17:06.390 Many secondary targets were hit, but the main 00:17:06.390 --> 00:17:09.269 objective failed. And that is why military historians 00:17:09.269 --> 00:17:11.990 classify this engagement as an Iraqi victory, 00:17:12.250 --> 00:17:14.769 despite the coalition having such overwhelming 00:17:14.769 --> 00:17:18.289 numbers and technological superiority. It fundamentally 00:17:18.289 --> 00:17:20.470 altered the strategic goals of the operation. 00:17:21.269 --> 00:17:23.710 General Buster Glossin and the American planners 00:17:23.710 --> 00:17:26.410 had a specific vision going into this. They hoped 00:17:26.410 --> 00:17:28.960 that by sending a sprawling daytime strike, They 00:17:28.960 --> 00:17:31.200 could shatter Baghdad's air defenses. And if 00:17:31.200 --> 00:17:33.420 they could do that, they could send large packages 00:17:33.420 --> 00:17:36.460 of conventional non -stealth F -16s right into 00:17:36.460 --> 00:17:38.420 the capital during broad daylight for the rest 00:17:38.420 --> 00:17:40.880 of the war. Exactly. They wanted to hit the massive 00:17:40.880 --> 00:17:43.640 command headquarters, the symbols of Saddam Hussein's 00:17:43.640 --> 00:17:45.539 regime, like the Basque Party headquarters and 00:17:45.539 --> 00:17:47.660 the Republican Guard buildings. Because those 00:17:47.660 --> 00:17:50.980 buildings were huge, meaning even unguided bombs 00:17:50.980 --> 00:17:53.900 from conventional F -16s had a high probability 00:17:53.900 --> 00:17:56.819 of hitting them. Planners hoped destroying these 00:17:56.819 --> 00:17:59.000 regime symbols in daylight would have devastating 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:01.140 political and psychological effects on the Iraqi 00:18:01.140 --> 00:18:03.460 government. But package Q proved that daylight 00:18:03.460 --> 00:18:06.400 conventional strikes over downtown Baghdad were 00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:10.059 simply too costly. The defenses remain completely 00:18:10.059 --> 00:18:14.400 lethal. The potential for planes being shot down 00:18:14.400 --> 00:18:16.960 or pilots having to inadvertently drop their 00:18:16.960 --> 00:18:19.220 bombs on civilian areas while dodging missiles 00:18:19.220 --> 00:18:21.440 was just too high. The coalition command had 00:18:21.440 --> 00:18:23.519 to completely revise their approach. So they 00:18:23.519 --> 00:18:26.240 completely pivoted. The strategic shift was immediate 00:18:26.240 --> 00:18:29.119 and profound. Because of the failure of package 00:18:29.119 --> 00:18:32.160 Q, American air doctrine changed overnight. From 00:18:32.160 --> 00:18:34.599 that point on, commanders called off any further 00:18:34.599 --> 00:18:37.259 airstrikes against downtown Baghdad by conventional 00:18:37.259 --> 00:18:39.759 non -stealth aircraft. They just stopped sending 00:18:39.759 --> 00:18:42.309 them. Future strikes on those highly defended 00:18:42.309 --> 00:18:44.849 downtown targets were exclusively assigned to 00:18:44.849 --> 00:18:49.210 the stealth F -117 Nighthawks. And for the remainder 00:18:49.210 --> 00:18:52.529 of the entire war, F -16 packages were kept much 00:18:52.529 --> 00:18:55.230 smaller. Command realized that smaller groups 00:18:55.230 --> 00:18:58.150 were more manageable, easier to coordinate, and 00:18:58.150 --> 00:19:00.190 far less susceptible to the cascading failures 00:19:00.190 --> 00:19:02.509 of friction. So what does this all mean for you 00:19:02.509 --> 00:19:05.250 listening right now? The failure of the package 00:19:05.250 --> 00:19:07.910 Q strike wasn't due to a lack of firepower or 00:19:07.910 --> 00:19:11.069 a lack of bravery from the pilots. It was a catastrophic 00:19:11.069 --> 00:19:13.789 failure of coordination in a tightly coupled 00:19:13.789 --> 00:19:16.150 system. It was the friction. Right. It was the 00:19:16.150 --> 00:19:18.049 friction of late orders, throwing off the weight 00:19:18.049 --> 00:19:20.529 calculations, bad weather, ruining the refueling 00:19:20.529 --> 00:19:23.089 timeline, mismanaged fuel consumption for the 00:19:23.089 --> 00:19:25.750 escort planes, and an incredibly overcomplicated 00:19:25.750 --> 00:19:28.609 flight plan. We'll stack it up. It is the ultimate 00:19:28.609 --> 00:19:31.309 reminder of how quickly a perfectly good strategy 00:19:31.309 --> 00:19:34.930 falls apart when massive new variables like shoving 00:19:34.930 --> 00:19:37.069 three downtown targets into the mix the night 00:19:37.069 --> 00:19:39.309 before are introduced at the very last minute. 00:19:39.450 --> 00:19:42.049 This raises an important question, and I think 00:19:42.049 --> 00:19:43.990 it leaves us with a final provocative thought 00:19:43.990 --> 00:19:47.250 to mull over. According to the historical record, 00:19:47.710 --> 00:19:50.950 Major General John Nichols later reflected on 00:19:50.950 --> 00:19:53.940 the events leading up to the strike. He noted 00:19:53.940 --> 00:19:56.220 that the pilots actually realized the plan was 00:19:56.220 --> 00:19:58.480 fatally flawed on the 18th, the day before the 00:19:58.480 --> 00:20:02.599 mission. They saw the sudden changes, the misallocated 00:20:02.599 --> 00:20:05.420 escorts, the impossible order of attack on the 00:20:05.420 --> 00:20:08.000 targets. And they actually advised their command 00:20:08.000 --> 00:20:11.019 that the planning was drastically flawed in too 00:20:11.019 --> 00:20:13.819 many ways to even describe. Wait, they knew it 00:20:13.819 --> 00:20:16.140 wouldn't work. They explicitly told their bosses 00:20:16.140 --> 00:20:18.599 that the plan was broken. They did. And yet they 00:20:18.599 --> 00:20:20.380 flew it anyway. They strapped themselves into 00:20:20.380 --> 00:20:22.460 those heavily burdened jets and flew directly 00:20:22.460 --> 00:20:24.539 into the most heavily defended airspace in the 00:20:24.539 --> 00:20:27.039 country. It really makes you ponder the incredible 00:20:27.039 --> 00:20:29.660 weight of duty and the immense psychological 00:20:29.660 --> 00:20:32.440 resilience it must require to strap into a machine 00:20:32.440 --> 00:20:34.859 and execute a plan you already know is doomed 00:20:34.859 --> 00:20:37.279 to fail. That is a heavy thought to leave on, 00:20:37.339 --> 00:20:40.279 but an incredibly powerful one. Thank you so 00:20:40.279 --> 00:20:42.380 much for joining us on this deep dive. We hope 00:20:42.380 --> 00:20:45.220 you found it as illuminating as we did. Keep 00:20:45.220 --> 00:20:46.880 questioning the world around you. Keep looking 00:20:46.880 --> 00:20:49.039 closely at the systems and friction in your own 00:20:49.039 --> 00:20:50.720 life. And we will catch you next time.