WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.459 Welcome in, everyone. We are so glad you're joining 00:00:02.459 --> 00:00:04.540 us for today's deep dive. Yeah, thanks for having 00:00:04.540 --> 00:00:08.539 me. Of course. So imagine for a second that the 00:00:08.539 --> 00:00:10.740 three of us, you listening, me and our resident 00:00:10.740 --> 00:00:13.750 expert here, are just... Pulling up chairs in 00:00:13.750 --> 00:00:16.070 a quiet room, maybe pouring a cup of coffee and 00:00:16.070 --> 00:00:18.489 really sitting down to examine how the government 00:00:18.489 --> 00:00:21.129 actually functions behind closed doors. Right. 00:00:21.129 --> 00:00:22.550 Because it's not exactly what they teach you 00:00:22.550 --> 00:00:24.690 in high school. Exactly. We're moving way past 00:00:24.690 --> 00:00:27.929 those basic high school civics definitions of 00:00:27.929 --> 00:00:30.570 how a bill becomes a law. We want to get into 00:00:30.570 --> 00:00:33.710 the gritty, high stakes, deeply complicated reality 00:00:33.710 --> 00:00:36.049 of what really happens when the congressional 00:00:36.049 --> 00:00:38.289 clock is ticking down to zero. And that ticking 00:00:38.289 --> 00:00:41.289 clock is. I mean, it's really the defining feature 00:00:41.289 --> 00:00:44.909 of modern legislation. It's so incredibly easy 00:00:44.909 --> 00:00:47.670 to watch the news, see the constant gridlock, 00:00:47.670 --> 00:00:50.189 and just, you know, feel completely overwhelmed 00:00:50.189 --> 00:00:53.109 by the sheer volume of parliamentary jargon. 00:00:53.170 --> 00:00:55.049 Oh, absolutely. It sounds like a different language. 00:00:55.329 --> 00:00:58.329 It really does. But once you understand the actual 00:00:58.329 --> 00:01:02.340 mechanisms at play, the specific... pressure 00:01:02.340 --> 00:01:04.879 points lawmakers use against one another, the 00:01:04.879 --> 00:01:06.799 whole picture actually starts to make a lot more 00:01:06.799 --> 00:01:09.620 sense. It's less about random political chaos 00:01:09.620 --> 00:01:12.719 and much more about strategic, intense negotiation 00:01:12.719 --> 00:01:15.640 over very specific pieces of legislation. Right. 00:01:16.030 --> 00:01:18.430 And to help us cut through all that noise today, 00:01:18.609 --> 00:01:21.469 we've brought a very specific stack of sources 00:01:21.469 --> 00:01:24.209 to the table. We're looking at a concise but 00:01:24.209 --> 00:01:27.469 honestly incredibly dense Wikipedia article centered 00:01:27.469 --> 00:01:29.930 entirely on congressional legislation. Yeah. 00:01:29.950 --> 00:01:31.909 And it's not just a surface level summary either. 00:01:32.069 --> 00:01:34.030 No, not at all. It's heavily supported by references 00:01:34.030 --> 00:01:36.829 from the United States Senate glossary, some 00:01:36.829 --> 00:01:39.989 really detailed reporting from NPR and legislative 00:01:39.989 --> 00:01:41.969 analysis from Roll Call. And the combination 00:01:41.969 --> 00:01:44.750 of those sources provides just a phenomenal foundation 00:01:44.750 --> 00:01:48.239 for it. our mission today is to break down what 00:01:48.239 --> 00:01:50.500 often sounds like incredibly dry legislative 00:01:50.500 --> 00:01:53.579 terminology and really reveal the dramatic reality 00:01:53.579 --> 00:01:57.159 behind it the high stakes exactly We're looking 00:01:57.159 --> 00:02:00.620 at how a few specific types of bills end up dictating 00:02:00.620 --> 00:02:04.579 everything from border walls to the stability 00:02:04.579 --> 00:02:07.519 of the entire global economy. OK, let's unpack 00:02:07.519 --> 00:02:10.020 this. We are talking about something known as 00:02:10.020 --> 00:02:12.719 a must pass bill. Right. The definition we have 00:02:12.719 --> 00:02:15.139 right here in the text is straightforward, but 00:02:15.139 --> 00:02:18.379 its implications are massive. A must pass bill 00:02:18.379 --> 00:02:20.659 is a measure considered so vitally important 00:02:20.659 --> 00:02:24.219 that it. absolutely unequivocally must be passed 00:02:24.219 --> 00:02:26.560 and enacted by Congress. The classic example 00:02:26.560 --> 00:02:29.500 provided by the glossary is funding for a basic 00:02:29.500 --> 00:02:31.479 function of government. Right, like keeping the 00:02:31.479 --> 00:02:34.530 lights on. Exactly. We aren't talking about bills 00:02:34.530 --> 00:02:37.569 declaring a national holiday or renaming a local 00:02:37.569 --> 00:02:40.050 post office. These are the bills that literally 00:02:40.050 --> 00:02:42.490 keep the country running. If they don't pass, 00:02:42.710 --> 00:02:45.530 fundamental operations grind to a halt. Federal 00:02:45.530 --> 00:02:48.090 agencies close. Essential programs are left in 00:02:48.090 --> 00:02:50.569 limbo. And the basic machinery of the state simply 00:02:50.569 --> 00:02:53.150 stops turning. But the core characteristic of 00:02:53.150 --> 00:02:55.490 a must -pass bill isn't solely its importance, 00:02:55.650 --> 00:02:58.080 though. It's the timeline. The deadline. Right. 00:02:58.159 --> 00:03:00.360 There is a hard deadline attached to these operations. 00:03:00.539 --> 00:03:03.060 And because of that extreme time crunch and the 00:03:03.060 --> 00:03:05.539 absolute necessity of passage, these bills become 00:03:05.539 --> 00:03:07.919 absolute magnets for something the Senate glossary 00:03:07.919 --> 00:03:11.340 explicitly defines as writers. And the mechanics 00:03:11.340 --> 00:03:13.800 of how writers attach to these bills are just 00:03:13.800 --> 00:03:17.819 that they're central to understanding. congressional 00:03:17.819 --> 00:03:21.580 strategy. What exactly is a rider in this context? 00:03:21.939 --> 00:03:24.259 It's essentially a policy proviso, a piece of 00:03:24.259 --> 00:03:26.780 legislation that is completely unrelated to the 00:03:26.780 --> 00:03:28.740 principal function of the bill itself. It's a 00:03:28.740 --> 00:03:31.060 secondary measure that just gets tacked on to 00:03:31.060 --> 00:03:33.400 the primary legislative vehicle. We can think 00:03:33.400 --> 00:03:35.620 about this using a classic analogy, but framing 00:03:35.620 --> 00:03:37.840 it around the specific strategic reality of Capitol 00:03:37.840 --> 00:03:42.639 Hill. Imagine a train that absolutely must leave 00:03:42.639 --> 00:03:45.080 the station today. The last train out. Yes, the 00:03:45.080 --> 00:03:46.879 final train out. And no matter what happens, 00:03:46.939 --> 00:03:48.960 it is guaranteed to reach its destination because 00:03:48.960 --> 00:03:51.400 the city relies on the cargo. It has to get there. 00:03:51.479 --> 00:03:54.080 Every lawmaker standing on that platform who 00:03:54.080 --> 00:03:57.479 has a pet project, a specific policy goal or 00:03:57.479 --> 00:03:59.900 maybe controversial piece of legislation that 00:03:59.900 --> 00:04:01.599 could never survive the legislative journey on 00:04:01.599 --> 00:04:03.960 its own. They know that this train is their best 00:04:03.960 --> 00:04:06.080 opportunity. Because it's leaving no matter what. 00:04:06.159 --> 00:04:08.580 Exactly. They toss their luggage onto this train. 00:04:08.759 --> 00:04:11.759 They attach their riders because the momentum 00:04:11.759 --> 00:04:14.340 of the must pass bill overcomes the friction 00:04:14.340 --> 00:04:17.019 that would normally kill their individual project. 00:04:17.550 --> 00:04:19.850 And the strategy goes much deeper than just individual 00:04:19.850 --> 00:04:22.829 lawmakers sneaking in pet projects. Party leaders 00:04:22.829 --> 00:04:26.310 actively use the must -pass deadline as a legislative 00:04:26.310 --> 00:04:29.310 whip. How so? Well, they bundle controversial 00:04:29.310 --> 00:04:32.290 writers with essential funding so they can look 00:04:32.290 --> 00:04:34.089 their holdout members in the eye and basically 00:04:34.089 --> 00:04:36.910 force a difficult vote. The leadership is essentially 00:04:36.910 --> 00:04:39.509 asking, are you really willing to shut down the 00:04:39.509 --> 00:04:42.470 government over this secondary issue? Yeah, the 00:04:42.470 --> 00:04:45.930 immense pressure of the impending deadline forces 00:04:45.930 --> 00:04:48.769 members to vote for a package they might otherwise 00:04:48.769 --> 00:04:51.470 completely oppose on procedural or ideological 00:04:51.470 --> 00:04:54.790 grounds. This brings us to a crucial mechanical 00:04:54.790 --> 00:04:57.949 limitation detailed in the analysis. We really 00:04:57.949 --> 00:05:00.389 have to ask why these writers actually survived 00:05:00.389 --> 00:05:03.430 the journey and become law. And it all comes 00:05:03.430 --> 00:05:05.170 down to the fact that the president of the United 00:05:05.170 --> 00:05:09.170 States lacks line item veto power. That absence 00:05:09.170 --> 00:05:12.389 of a line item veto is a fundamental bottleneck 00:05:12.389 --> 00:05:14.910 in the balance of power between the legislative 00:05:14.910 --> 00:05:17.389 and executive branches. Because the president 00:05:17.389 --> 00:05:19.490 is the executive. Right, the ultimate executive. 00:05:20.029 --> 00:05:23.029 But without a line item veto, their hands are 00:05:23.029 --> 00:05:25.790 entirely tied by the legislative packaging Congress 00:05:25.790 --> 00:05:29.129 decides on. A line item veto would mean the president 00:05:29.129 --> 00:05:31.810 could look at a massive, vitally important funding 00:05:31.810 --> 00:05:34.889 bill, locate the unrelated rider that someone 00:05:34.889 --> 00:05:38.329 sneaked into, say, page 400, and simply cross 00:05:38.329 --> 00:05:40.990 that specific line out while signing the rest 00:05:40.990 --> 00:05:43.310 of the essential bill into law. But the president 00:05:43.310 --> 00:05:45.810 simply does not have that power. Right. When 00:05:45.810 --> 00:05:47.689 Congress sends a bill to the president's desk, 00:05:47.910 --> 00:05:50.730 it's a comprehensive package deal. It is an all 00:05:50.730 --> 00:05:52.829 or nothing proposition. So they can't extract 00:05:52.829 --> 00:05:55.290 the core necessary funding from the controversial 00:05:55.290 --> 00:05:58.370 writers attached to it. No, they can't. And this 00:05:58.370 --> 00:06:00.850 forces the executive branch into an incredibly 00:06:00.850 --> 00:06:04.589 difficult strategic corner. I can imagine. The 00:06:04.589 --> 00:06:07.250 president is looking at a bill that will literally 00:06:07.250 --> 00:06:10.120 keep the government running. But attached to 00:06:10.120 --> 00:06:12.680 it is an unrelated rider they might fundamentally 00:06:12.680 --> 00:06:15.959 oppose. They're forced to make a really stark 00:06:15.959 --> 00:06:18.620 calculation. Swallow the whole bill, unrelated 00:06:18.620 --> 00:06:21.420 riders and all, or veto the essential funding 00:06:21.420 --> 00:06:24.699 entirely. Exactly. And if they veto it, they 00:06:24.699 --> 00:06:27.040 take responsibility for stopping that vital train 00:06:27.040 --> 00:06:30.060 in its tracks. The lawmakers attaching the riders 00:06:30.060 --> 00:06:32.300 are effectively leveraging the essential nature 00:06:32.300 --> 00:06:35.939 of the bill to bypass executive opposition. Here's 00:06:35.939 --> 00:06:38.170 where it gets really interesting. Okay. This 00:06:38.170 --> 00:06:40.670 dynamic isn't just a one -way street where Congress 00:06:40.670 --> 00:06:43.550 forces the president's hand. The historical context 00:06:43.550 --> 00:06:46.029 provided by our sources points out that this 00:06:46.029 --> 00:06:48.529 exact same measure can be exploited in reverse 00:06:48.529 --> 00:06:51.209 by the executive branch. Oh, absolutely. The 00:06:51.209 --> 00:06:53.170 executive branch can use the vital nature of 00:06:53.170 --> 00:06:55.810 a must -pass bill to try and force Congress to 00:06:55.810 --> 00:06:58.370 bend to its will. Instead of Congress hiding 00:06:58.370 --> 00:07:00.949 a writer in a massive bill, the executive branch 00:07:00.949 --> 00:07:04.019 holds the essential funding hostage. Right. Until 00:07:04.019 --> 00:07:07.019 the legislative branch agrees to include specific 00:07:07.019 --> 00:07:10.019 executive demands in the text of the bill. A 00:07:10.019 --> 00:07:12.160 prime historical example of this occurred in 00:07:12.160 --> 00:07:15.139 2018. Now, a quick note to you listening. We 00:07:15.139 --> 00:07:17.019 are just looking at the mechanics here. We're 00:07:17.019 --> 00:07:19.139 strictly reporting the facts from the source 00:07:19.139 --> 00:07:21.500 without taking any political stance. Just analyzing 00:07:21.500 --> 00:07:24.540 the structural breakdown. Exactly. So President 00:07:24.540 --> 00:07:27.800 Trump stated he would veto a vital spending bill, 00:07:27.959 --> 00:07:31.040 a must -pass bill, unless it included exactly 00:07:31.040 --> 00:07:34.779 $5 .7 billion in funding for a border wall. So 00:07:34.779 --> 00:07:36.579 mechanically, the president took a must -pass 00:07:36.579 --> 00:07:39.779 bill. and established a firm line. He declared 00:07:39.779 --> 00:07:41.459 that he would not let this vital legislation 00:07:41.459 --> 00:07:44.720 pass and would trigger a veto unless his specific 00:07:44.720 --> 00:07:47.220 condition was met by Congress. But Congress still 00:07:47.220 --> 00:07:49.579 has to actually write and pass the bill before 00:07:49.579 --> 00:07:51.540 it even gets to the president's desk. Right. 00:07:51.660 --> 00:07:53.459 And this is where the system completely locked 00:07:53.459 --> 00:07:55.899 up. The text notes that Congress was entirely 00:07:55.899 --> 00:07:58.279 unable to organize a bill that met President 00:07:58.279 --> 00:08:00.420 Trump's requirements and could simultaneously 00:08:00.420 --> 00:08:03.939 pass both chambers. The multilayered gridlock 00:08:03.939 --> 00:08:06.839 here is a perfect illustration of the mechanical 00:08:06.839 --> 00:08:09.310 difficulty of the U .S. system. Because you have 00:08:09.310 --> 00:08:11.589 the House, the Senate and the executive. Yes, 00:08:11.649 --> 00:08:14.889 all distinct entities, often with their own majorities, 00:08:14.930 --> 00:08:18.310 priorities and infernal factions. If lawmakers 00:08:18.310 --> 00:08:21.129 cannot find a compromise that threads the needle 00:08:21.129 --> 00:08:23.829 through all three of those bodies, the legislation 00:08:23.829 --> 00:08:27.069 dies. The must pass bill fundamentally fails 00:08:27.069 --> 00:08:29.589 to pass. Exactly. And in this specific case, 00:08:29.709 --> 00:08:32.860 the impasse was incredibly severe. The spending 00:08:32.860 --> 00:08:36.779 bill failed, resulting in a massive 35 -day federal 00:08:36.779 --> 00:08:39.080 government shutdown spanning from the end of 00:08:39.080 --> 00:08:43.379 2018 well into 2019. 35 days is a monumental 00:08:43.379 --> 00:08:46.799 failure of the primary legislative vehicle. When 00:08:46.799 --> 00:08:48.679 we talk about the weight of a must -pass bill, 00:08:49.100 --> 00:08:51.360 This is the reality of what happens when the 00:08:51.360 --> 00:08:54.059 mechanism breaks down. Because without that legislation, 00:08:54.279 --> 00:08:56.940 the basic functions of government cease for over 00:08:56.940 --> 00:08:59.779 a month. Agencies are paralyzed, federal workers 00:08:59.779 --> 00:09:02.120 are furloughed, and the ripple effects are felt 00:09:02.120 --> 00:09:04.320 across the entire country's infrastructure and 00:09:04.320 --> 00:09:06.620 economy. Which brings us to a crucial evolution 00:09:06.620 --> 00:09:08.980 in the terminology we're discussing today. We 00:09:08.980 --> 00:09:10.779 started by looking at the concept of writers. 00:09:10.980 --> 00:09:13.720 But the text introduces another term to describe 00:09:13.720 --> 00:09:16.000 the mechanics of what happened in this specific 00:09:16.000 --> 00:09:19.799 2018 to 2019 scenario. What's fascinating here 00:09:19.799 --> 00:09:22.679 is the stark distinction the source draws between 00:09:22.679 --> 00:09:25.740 a simple writer and what is known as a poison 00:09:25.740 --> 00:09:29.139 pill. A poison pill. Yes. We established earlier 00:09:29.139 --> 00:09:32.159 that a rider is like extra cargo tossed onto 00:09:32.159 --> 00:09:34.620 a moving train. It might slow the train down. 00:09:34.720 --> 00:09:36.740 It might be an intense annoyance to the executive 00:09:36.740 --> 00:09:39.399 branch. But the train ultimately still reaches 00:09:39.399 --> 00:09:42.139 the station. The rider becomes law alongside 00:09:42.139 --> 00:09:44.419 the essential bill because the president ultimately 00:09:44.419 --> 00:09:46.379 swallows the annoyance to keep the government 00:09:46.379 --> 00:09:49.740 open. Exactly. But a poison pill operates on 00:09:49.740 --> 00:09:52.200 a completely different mechanical level. In the 00:09:52.200 --> 00:09:55.399 case of the 2018 shutdown, the added legislation, 00:09:55.559 --> 00:09:58.919 the $5 .7 billion for the border wall, was so 00:09:58.919 --> 00:10:01.360 highly controversial among the necessary voting 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:04.519 blocs that it literally killed the host. The 00:10:04.519 --> 00:10:07.379 text explicitly states that this policy requirement 00:10:07.379 --> 00:10:10.320 became a so -called poison pill because it severely 00:10:10.320 --> 00:10:12.899 limited any possibility of a vital bill passing 00:10:12.899 --> 00:10:15.649 at all. It wasn't just extra luggage. No. It 00:10:15.649 --> 00:10:18.289 was a fundamental roadblock. The inclusion of 00:10:18.289 --> 00:10:20.870 the executive requirement meant the must pass 00:10:20.870 --> 00:10:23.190 bill could not assemble the necessary votes to 00:10:23.190 --> 00:10:25.190 pass the House and the Senate. It highlights 00:10:25.190 --> 00:10:27.970 how fragile this entire legislative process is. 00:10:28.149 --> 00:10:30.570 You have a mechanism designed to keep the country 00:10:30.570 --> 00:10:32.990 running, but because it is so vital, it becomes 00:10:32.990 --> 00:10:35.649 the ultimate point of leverage. And if anyone, 00:10:35.789 --> 00:10:37.649 whether in Congress or the executive branch, 00:10:37.789 --> 00:10:40.629 pushes that leverage too far with a poison pill. 00:10:41.279 --> 00:10:43.679 The host legislation is destroyed and the whole 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:46.559 system shuts down. Now, a 35 -day shutdown over 00:10:46.559 --> 00:10:49.700 federal agency funding is severe, but it primarily 00:10:49.700 --> 00:10:52.620 halts current and future operations. Right. What 00:10:52.620 --> 00:10:54.759 happens when a must -pass bill threatens not 00:10:54.759 --> 00:10:57.080 just future operations, but past obligations? 00:10:57.659 --> 00:11:00.759 The sources take us to an even more extreme example 00:11:00.759 --> 00:11:03.519 of a must -pass bill, one where the stakes are 00:11:03.519 --> 00:11:06.639 significantly higher than agency furloughs. Much 00:11:06.639 --> 00:11:09.379 higher. We are talking about the ultimate must 00:11:09.379 --> 00:11:12.700 -pass scenario. NPR and roll call both extensively 00:11:12.700 --> 00:11:15.080 cover the legislation required to raise the federal 00:11:15.080 --> 00:11:17.200 government's borrowing limit. Most people know 00:11:17.200 --> 00:11:19.460 this simply as the debt ceiling. If we connect 00:11:19.460 --> 00:11:21.679 this to the bigger picture, we really have to 00:11:21.679 --> 00:11:23.899 understand what the debt ceiling represents mechanically. 00:11:23.980 --> 00:11:25.899 Right, because it gets very confused in the media. 00:11:26.100 --> 00:11:29.000 It does. The federal government operates by borrowing 00:11:29.000 --> 00:11:31.700 money to cover the gap between what it collects 00:11:31.700 --> 00:11:35.399 in revenue and what it spends. However, there's 00:11:35.399 --> 00:11:37.960 a strict statutory limit on how much total money 00:11:37.960 --> 00:11:40.159 the government is legally allowed to borrow at 00:11:40.159 --> 00:11:42.779 any given time. And Congress has to periodically 00:11:42.779 --> 00:11:46.320 pass legislation to raise that limit. The critical 00:11:46.320 --> 00:11:48.440 distinction that often gets lost in the noise 00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:50.539 of these debates, and the text makes this very 00:11:50.539 --> 00:11:53.320 clear, raising the debt ceiling is not about 00:11:53.320 --> 00:11:55.700 authorizing new spending programs. That is the 00:11:55.700 --> 00:11:58.039 vital detail that separates this from a standard 00:11:58.039 --> 00:12:01.120 budget debate. Raising the debt ceiling simply 00:12:01.120 --> 00:12:03.799 allows the federal government To borrow the money 00:12:03.799 --> 00:12:06.600 required to pay for obligations it has already 00:12:06.600 --> 00:12:08.440 incurred. Bills that have already been racked 00:12:08.440 --> 00:12:11.000 up. Exactly. By previous acts of Congress and 00:12:11.000 --> 00:12:14.580 previous administrations. It is the legal authorization 00:12:14.580 --> 00:12:17.539 to pay the debts the country already owes. So 00:12:17.539 --> 00:12:19.639 we all know the debt ceiling limits borrowing 00:12:19.639 --> 00:12:22.919 for already incurred debt. But the actual mechanics 00:12:22.919 --> 00:12:26.080 of a default on Treasury bonds are what makes 00:12:26.080 --> 00:12:28.639 this the ultimate leverage point. What actually 00:12:28.639 --> 00:12:32.419 happens if this specific must pass bill fails 00:12:32.419 --> 00:12:35.059 to clear the House and the Senate? Without passage 00:12:35.059 --> 00:12:37.720 of a bill to raise the limit, the federal government 00:12:37.720 --> 00:12:40.279 completely loses the legal ability to borrow 00:12:40.279 --> 00:12:42.620 the money it needs to pay its existing outstanding 00:12:42.620 --> 00:12:45.629 bills. Which triggers a default. It triggers 00:12:45.629 --> 00:12:47.789 a sovereign default. The government would literally 00:12:47.789 --> 00:12:50.669 be unable to make good on its financial promises. 00:12:51.029 --> 00:12:54.529 So what does this all mean? Why should you, listening 00:12:54.529 --> 00:12:57.470 to this deep dive right now, care about the specific 00:12:57.470 --> 00:13:00.830 granular mechanics of the debt ceiling? The consequences 00:13:00.830 --> 00:13:03.389 of failing to pass this specific bill go far 00:13:03.389 --> 00:13:05.429 beyond a political embarrassment in Washington. 00:13:05.919 --> 00:13:09.100 The expert consensus cited in NPR's reporting 00:13:09.100 --> 00:13:12.460 explicitly warns of a looming financial catastrophe. 00:13:12.740 --> 00:13:15.399 A catastrophe? Yes. The effects of a default 00:13:15.399 --> 00:13:17.399 would be devastating, not just domestically, 00:13:17.460 --> 00:13:20.240 but internationally across all markets. We aren't 00:13:20.240 --> 00:13:22.559 just talking about national parks closing or 00:13:22.559 --> 00:13:24.340 federal workers waiting on a paycheck anymore. 00:13:24.620 --> 00:13:27.519 The text states that experts conclude a failure 00:13:27.519 --> 00:13:30.200 to pay the federal government's bills would have 00:13:30.200 --> 00:13:32.600 incredibly damaging effects on the entire global 00:13:32.600 --> 00:13:35.600 economy. You really have to consider the foundational 00:13:35.600 --> 00:13:39.080 role of United States Treasury bonds. They are 00:13:39.080 --> 00:13:41.220 considered the bedrock of the global financial 00:13:41.220 --> 00:13:44.240 system because they are universally seen as entirely 00:13:44.240 --> 00:13:47.139 risk -free. Because the U .S. always pays its 00:13:47.139 --> 00:13:50.399 debts. Exactly. Global markets, foreign governments, 00:13:50.519 --> 00:13:52.740 and domestic financial institutions all rely 00:13:52.740 --> 00:13:55.399 on the absolute certainty that the U .S. government 00:13:55.399 --> 00:13:58.419 will pay. If the government suddenly defaults, 00:13:58.419 --> 00:14:01.700 that bedrock crumbles instantly. The shockwaves 00:14:01.700 --> 00:14:04.500 would be immediate and severe. A default would 00:14:04.500 --> 00:14:06.840 impact interest rates across the board, sending 00:14:06.840 --> 00:14:09.320 mortgage rates and credit card rates skyrocketing 00:14:09.320 --> 00:14:11.799 as the risk associated with U .S. debt increases. 00:14:12.039 --> 00:14:14.659 It would severely impact the stock market, devastating 00:14:14.659 --> 00:14:16.980 retirement accounts and increasing the cost of 00:14:16.980 --> 00:14:19.080 borrowing for everyday people. The financial 00:14:19.080 --> 00:14:21.299 hit would reach every single person's wallet. 00:14:21.559 --> 00:14:24.840 And that level of systemic risk is exactly why 00:14:24.840 --> 00:14:27.460 the debt ceiling is the ultimate must pass bill. 00:14:27.840 --> 00:14:30.080 The leverage it provides to anyone willing to 00:14:30.080 --> 00:14:33.429 threaten it is almost terrifying. Everyone involved 00:14:33.429 --> 00:14:36.289 knows that if the bill fails, the economic damage 00:14:36.289 --> 00:14:38.629 isn't localized to one political party or one 00:14:38.629 --> 00:14:41.000 branch of government. It's catastrophic on a 00:14:41.000 --> 00:14:43.860 global scale. Right. Which naturally makes it 00:14:43.860 --> 00:14:46.259 the ultimate target for writers and poison pills. 00:14:46.460 --> 00:14:49.519 It is the biggest, most unstoppable legislative 00:14:49.519 --> 00:14:53.039 vehicle of all. So naturally, lawmakers and executives 00:14:53.039 --> 00:14:55.539 view it as the prime opportunity to attach their 00:14:55.539 --> 00:14:58.080 most controversial demands. The tension surrounding 00:14:58.080 --> 00:15:00.720 these debt ceiling negotiations is what makes 00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:03.240 these legislative battles so fraught and frankly, 00:15:03.320 --> 00:15:06.059 so inherently dangerous. The mechanics of the 00:15:06.059 --> 00:15:08.480 system practically incentivize brinkmanship. 00:15:08.860 --> 00:15:11.039 Because the threat of mutual destruction is the 00:15:11.039 --> 00:15:13.399 only way to force the opposition to concede to 00:15:13.399 --> 00:15:15.960 a controversial rider. We have covered a significant 00:15:15.960 --> 00:15:18.519 amount of ground today, moving from the mechanical 00:15:18.519 --> 00:15:21.639 definition of a must pass bill through the strategic 00:15:21.639 --> 00:15:25.059 use of riders, exploring how the lack of a line 00:15:25.059 --> 00:15:28.379 item veto shifts congressional power, navigating 00:15:28.379 --> 00:15:31.500 the extreme gridlock of poison pills in the 2018 00:15:31.500 --> 00:15:34.600 standoff, and finally looking at the global economic 00:15:34.600 --> 00:15:37.710 stakes of the debt ceiling. When you synthesize 00:15:37.710 --> 00:15:41.129 all of these core themes, you realize that must 00:15:41.129 --> 00:15:43.970 pass bills are the ultimate double edged sword 00:15:43.970 --> 00:15:47.009 in American politics. On one hand, they are absolutely 00:15:47.009 --> 00:15:49.149 essential vehicles. They're the only pragmatic 00:15:49.149 --> 00:15:51.610 way to keep the government running. To fund basic 00:15:51.610 --> 00:15:54.509 functions and to prevent global economic damage 00:15:54.509 --> 00:15:56.490 when it comes to obligations like the debt ceiling. 00:15:56.690 --> 00:15:58.669 They are the unavoidable necessity that keeps 00:15:58.669 --> 00:16:00.909 the country functioning. But it is precisely 00:16:00.909 --> 00:16:03.509 their vital, unavoidable nature that makes them 00:16:03.509 --> 00:16:06.909 so incredibly vulnerable. Because they absolutely 00:16:06.909 --> 00:16:09.730 must pass, they become the prime targets for 00:16:09.730 --> 00:16:13.090 unrelated riders, dangerous poison pills, and 00:16:13.090 --> 00:16:15.649 intense executive exploitation. The necessity 00:16:15.649 --> 00:16:18.169 of the bill is constantly weaponized by anyone 00:16:18.169 --> 00:16:20.909 looking for legislative leverage. It's a system 00:16:20.909 --> 00:16:23.250 built entirely on extreme pressure and impending 00:16:23.250 --> 00:16:25.809 deadlines. It really is. This raises an important 00:16:25.809 --> 00:16:28.230 question, and it is something I think is worth 00:16:28.230 --> 00:16:31.779 chewing on. long after this deep dive ends. We 00:16:31.779 --> 00:16:34.379 have seen the mechanics of how this works. We 00:16:34.379 --> 00:16:37.360 have seen how vital time -sensitive legislation 00:16:37.360 --> 00:16:40.080 is constantly being weighed down by unrelated 00:16:40.080 --> 00:16:43.019 writers and frequently threatened by dangerous 00:16:43.019 --> 00:16:45.559 poison pills. It's a constant cycle of brinkmanship. 00:16:45.759 --> 00:16:48.580 If vital time -sensitive legislation is constantly 00:16:48.580 --> 00:16:51.240 being bogged down in this manner, is the modern 00:16:51.240 --> 00:16:54.440 concept of a must -pass bill actually a tool 00:16:54.440 --> 00:16:57.950 for legislative efficiency? Or is the fact that 00:16:57.950 --> 00:17:00.789 we rely so heavily on these massive, high stakes, 00:17:00.990 --> 00:17:04.269 all or nothing legislative showdowns actually 00:17:04.269 --> 00:17:06.890 proof that the traditional step by step method 00:17:06.890 --> 00:17:09.190 of debating and passing laws has entirely broken 00:17:09.190 --> 00:17:11.980 down? That is a phenomenal thought to end on. 00:17:12.059 --> 00:17:14.240 If the only way to pass a law is to strap it 00:17:14.240 --> 00:17:16.339 to a moving train that nobody is allowed to stop, 00:17:16.539 --> 00:17:18.339 what does that say about the station itself? 00:17:18.559 --> 00:17:21.160 We really hope this conversation has given you 00:17:21.160 --> 00:17:24.000 a new, more mechanical lens to view the news 00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:26.380 through. The next time you hear about a looming 00:17:26.380 --> 00:17:28.859 government shutdown or a tense debt ceiling negotiation, 00:17:29.220 --> 00:17:31.480 you will know exactly what is happening beneath 00:17:31.480 --> 00:17:34.019 the surface and exactly why the stakes are so 00:17:34.019 --> 00:17:36.220 high. Thank you so much for joining us on this 00:17:36.220 --> 00:17:38.460 deep dive. Keep asking questions. Keep looking 00:17:38.460 --> 00:17:40.369 beyond the headlines. and keep seeking out those 00:17:40.369 --> 00:17:42.849 surprising aha moments in the world around you. 00:17:42.930 --> 00:17:44.549 We will catch you on the next one.