WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.299 Welcome to your custom -tailored deep dive. We 00:00:03.299 --> 00:00:04.780 are just thrilled to have you with us today. 00:00:04.900 --> 00:00:07.379 Yeah, absolutely thrilled. So our mission for 00:00:07.379 --> 00:00:10.000 this deep dive is to explore the anatomy of a 00:00:10.000 --> 00:00:12.359 political promise. We're going to look at how 00:00:12.359 --> 00:00:16.879 just six simple words can completely define a 00:00:16.879 --> 00:00:19.039 presidential campaign, force a constitutional 00:00:19.039 --> 00:00:22.300 crisis, and, you know, ultimately derail a presidency. 00:00:22.600 --> 00:00:24.820 It really is an incredible story of political 00:00:24.820 --> 00:00:28.179 mechanics. To guide us through it, we are examining 00:00:28.179 --> 00:00:31.339 the detailed, the encyclopedic record of one 00:00:31.339 --> 00:00:33.600 of the most famous phrases in modern political 00:00:33.600 --> 00:00:37.000 history. Read my lips. No new taxes. Exactly. 00:00:37.259 --> 00:00:39.460 We're looking at the comprehensive history of 00:00:39.460 --> 00:00:41.460 where this phrase came from, the total chaos 00:00:41.460 --> 00:00:44.079 it caused inside the White House and its lasting 00:00:44.079 --> 00:00:46.539 legacy on global politics. And since we know 00:00:46.539 --> 00:00:48.420 you are someone who loves to learn, someone who 00:00:48.420 --> 00:00:50.100 wants the full picture without getting completely 00:00:50.100 --> 00:00:52.420 overwhelmed by the noise. This is going to be 00:00:52.420 --> 00:00:54.119 perfect for you. Definitely. You have almost 00:00:54.119 --> 00:00:55.859 certainly heard this famous soundbite before. 00:00:55.920 --> 00:00:58.179 It's legendary. But the behind -the -scenes drama, 00:00:58.439 --> 00:01:01.960 the frantic speechwriters, the angry phone calls, 00:01:02.079 --> 00:01:05.079 the harsh economic realities. That's the real 00:01:05.079 --> 00:01:07.579 story. Right. That is where you get this incredible 00:01:07.579 --> 00:01:10.620 aha moment about the massive collision between 00:01:10.620 --> 00:01:14.000 campaign rhetoric and actual governance. It's 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:16.620 a story about what happens when an unstoppable 00:01:16.620 --> 00:01:19.920 political promise meets an immovable economic 00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:22.859 reality. Okay, let's unpack this. So to really 00:01:22.859 --> 00:01:25.019 understand the weight of those six words, we 00:01:25.019 --> 00:01:29.000 need to set the stage. It's 1988. Vice President 00:01:29.000 --> 00:01:31.239 George H .W. Bush is running to succeed Ronald 00:01:31.239 --> 00:01:34.680 Reagan as president of the United States. Bush 00:01:34.680 --> 00:01:37.140 has a serious problem. He has firmly secured 00:01:37.140 --> 00:01:40.180 the Republican nomination, sure, but he is trailing 00:01:40.180 --> 00:01:42.459 the Democratic nominee. Michael Dukakis. Right. 00:01:42.519 --> 00:01:44.420 Trailing Dukakis significantly in the polls. 00:01:44.819 --> 00:01:47.319 And beyond just the numbers, Bush is battling 00:01:47.319 --> 00:01:49.640 a perception problem. Among conservatives in 00:01:49.640 --> 00:01:52.200 his own party, he is viewed as weak and vacillating. 00:01:52.359 --> 00:01:54.859 His advisers are, well, they're deeply worried 00:01:54.859 --> 00:01:57.120 about a lack of enthusiasm for him in the conservative 00:01:57.120 --> 00:01:59.640 wing of the party. And that skepticism didn't 00:01:59.640 --> 00:02:01.939 just emerge in a vacuum. You know, if we trace 00:02:01.939 --> 00:02:04.030 this back, the catalyst really happened. years 00:02:04.030 --> 00:02:07.390 earlier. Back in 1984. Exactly. During the 1984 00:02:07.390 --> 00:02:10.189 presidential election, there was this debate 00:02:10.189 --> 00:02:12.509 where the Democratic candidate, Walter Mondale, 00:02:12.610 --> 00:02:15.280 flat out admitted that if he were elected, taxes 00:02:15.280 --> 00:02:17.340 would likely be raised. Which was a moment of 00:02:17.340 --> 00:02:20.699 stark honesty. A huge moment of honesty. But 00:02:20.699 --> 00:02:23.479 then Bush implied the tax increases might actually 00:02:23.479 --> 00:02:25.539 be necessary in the next four years, too. Right. 00:02:25.659 --> 00:02:28.500 Which was a huge misstep for his base. President 00:02:28.500 --> 00:02:30.939 Reagan immediately asserted that he had absolutely 00:02:30.939 --> 00:02:34.020 no plans to raise taxes in his second term. Leaving 00:02:34.020 --> 00:02:36.340 Bush scrambling. Completely. It forced Bush to 00:02:36.340 --> 00:02:38.400 quickly argue that his own comments had been 00:02:38.400 --> 00:02:41.500 misunderstood. But the damage was done. That 00:02:41.500 --> 00:02:45.139 1984 exchange led some conservatives to really 00:02:45.139 --> 00:02:47.780 begin doubting Bush's dedication to tax cuts. 00:02:48.319 --> 00:02:50.599 They weren't sure he was a true believer in the 00:02:50.599 --> 00:02:53.039 Reagan economic revolution. Fast forward to the 00:02:53.039 --> 00:02:55.639 run -up for the 1988 election. The competition 00:02:55.639 --> 00:02:59.080 to succeed Reagan is starting in 1986, and it's 00:02:59.080 --> 00:03:01.139 incredibly clear that taxes are going to be the 00:03:01.139 --> 00:03:03.650 central issue. Enter Grover Norquist. He's the 00:03:03.650 --> 00:03:05.810 head of Americans for Tax Reform. And he had 00:03:05.810 --> 00:03:09.810 created this strict no new taxes pledge. He's 00:03:09.810 --> 00:03:11.750 aggressively encouraging Republican candidates 00:03:11.750 --> 00:03:14.409 to sign it. A large number of congressional candidates 00:03:14.409 --> 00:03:16.969 put their names on it. Bush's primary rivals, 00:03:17.110 --> 00:03:19.449 Jack Kemp and Pete DuPont, they sign it too. 00:03:19.879 --> 00:03:22.979 But Bush initially refuses. He holds out. It 00:03:22.979 --> 00:03:25.819 wasn't until 1987 that he eventually caved and 00:03:25.819 --> 00:03:28.460 agreed to it. And once he did, his campaign actually 00:03:28.460 --> 00:03:31.020 joined the other candidates in using the tax 00:03:31.020 --> 00:03:33.780 issue as a weapon to attack Bob Dole. Because 00:03:33.780 --> 00:03:35.819 Dole hadn't been clear on the subject. Exactly. 00:03:35.819 --> 00:03:38.139 But signing a piece of paper in a primary is 00:03:38.139 --> 00:03:40.659 one thing. Making it the absolute centerpiece 00:03:40.659 --> 00:03:42.780 of your national campaign in a general election 00:03:42.780 --> 00:03:46.319 is another entirely. Which brings us to the drafting 00:03:46.319 --> 00:03:49.000 of the 1988 Republican National Convention acceptance 00:03:49.000 --> 00:03:51.319 speech down in New Orleans. A crucial moment. 00:03:51.500 --> 00:03:54.400 The campaign needs a unifying moment. They desperately 00:03:54.400 --> 00:03:56.819 need to energize the right. And as Bush adviser 00:03:56.819 --> 00:03:59.360 James Pickett put it, taxes were the one issue 00:03:59.360 --> 00:04:02.240 that unified the right and didn't antagonize 00:04:02.240 --> 00:04:04.759 anybody else. So they decide to put a firm no 00:04:04.759 --> 00:04:07.800 new tax pledge right into the acceptance speech. 00:04:08.810 --> 00:04:11.210 The basic idea for the passage came from Jack 00:04:11.210 --> 00:04:14.289 Kemp, but the actual words were crafted by leading 00:04:14.289 --> 00:04:16.850 speechwriter Peggy Noonan. The drafting process, 00:04:17.069 --> 00:04:19.769 however, was a total battleground. There was 00:04:19.769 --> 00:04:22.389 incredible internal friction over this specific 00:04:22.389 --> 00:04:25.629 phrasing. Some of Bush's advisors felt the language 00:04:25.629 --> 00:04:28.350 was just way too strong and completely boxed 00:04:28.350 --> 00:04:30.509 them in. The most prominent critic in the room 00:04:30.509 --> 00:04:32.769 was his economic advisor, Richard Darman. Right. 00:04:33.329 --> 00:04:35.829 Darman was actually one of the architects of 00:04:35.829 --> 00:04:39.430 Reagan's 1982 tax increase, and he fully expected 00:04:39.430 --> 00:04:41.949 to have a major policy role in the upcoming Bush 00:04:41.949 --> 00:04:44.790 White House. When Darman saw the initial draft 00:04:44.790 --> 00:04:47.149 of the speech, he literally crossed the phrase 00:04:47.149 --> 00:04:49.290 out. Just struck it right out of the text. Yes. 00:04:49.310 --> 00:04:51.610 He called it stupid and dangerous. But wait, 00:04:51.689 --> 00:04:53.810 if Richard Jarman, a senior economic adviser, 00:04:54.009 --> 00:04:56.790 knew this pledge was a ticking time bomb, why 00:04:56.790 --> 00:04:59.389 did a seasoned politician like Bush listen to 00:04:59.389 --> 00:05:02.199 a PR strategist over his own numbers guy? Because 00:05:02.199 --> 00:05:04.399 of the political desperation of the moment, the 00:05:04.399 --> 00:05:06.339 campaign was getting entirely different advice 00:05:06.339 --> 00:05:08.920 from political strategist Roger Ailes. Ailes 00:05:08.920 --> 00:05:11.560 advised keeping the line in the speech. His logic 00:05:11.560 --> 00:05:13.860 being what exactly? Well, his logic was that 00:05:13.860 --> 00:05:16.240 the pledge was desperately needed to keep conservative 00:05:16.240 --> 00:05:18.759 support, especially since the campaign was trying 00:05:18.759 --> 00:05:21.639 to position itself overall as centrist to appeal 00:05:21.639 --> 00:05:24.399 to the broader electorate. Furthermore, they 00:05:24.399 --> 00:05:27.040 hoped this hardline, uncompromising stance would 00:05:27.040 --> 00:05:29.939 add an element of toughness to Bush. Directly 00:05:29.939 --> 00:05:32.379 countering that lingering perception of him being 00:05:32.379 --> 00:05:35.399 weak. Precisely. Darman later argued that in 00:05:35.399 --> 00:05:37.800 that moment, the campaign was simply far more 00:05:37.800 --> 00:05:39.800 concerned with winning the election than with 00:05:39.800 --> 00:05:42.180 actually governing. So the decision is made. 00:05:42.480 --> 00:05:46.399 The line stays. On August 18th, 1988, George 00:05:46.399 --> 00:05:49.300 H .W. Bush stands up at the convention and delivers 00:05:49.300 --> 00:05:52.399 the line. He says, and the Congress will push 00:05:52.399 --> 00:05:54.680 me to raise taxes and I'll say no. And they'll 00:05:54.680 --> 00:05:56.500 push and I'll say no and they'll push again and 00:05:56.500 --> 00:05:59.579 I'll say to them, read my lips, no new taxes. 00:05:59.839 --> 00:06:02.639 The delivery was iconic and the immediate impact 00:06:02.639 --> 00:06:05.600 was absolutely staggering. The strategy to look 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:08.639 tough and unify the base worked flawlessly. Coming 00:06:08.639 --> 00:06:10.980 out of that convention, Bush immediately overtakes 00:06:10.980 --> 00:06:13.889 Dukakis. A Gallup poll taken the following week 00:06:13.889 --> 00:06:18.149 showed Bush taking a 48 to 44 percent lead. His 00:06:18.149 --> 00:06:21.129 favorability ratings shot up by nine points compared 00:06:21.129 --> 00:06:23.970 to pre -convention polls. And a nine point jump 00:06:23.970 --> 00:06:26.670 in favorability is almost unheard of coming out 00:06:26.670 --> 00:06:28.829 of a convention. I put that in perspective for 00:06:28.829 --> 00:06:31.370 you. Pollsters who had been tracking elections 00:06:31.370 --> 00:06:34.569 since the 1930s were saying they had never seen 00:06:34.569 --> 00:06:37.740 a swing like it. Mervyn Field, who was a veteran 00:06:37.740 --> 00:06:40.240 California pollster, was quoted at the time declaring 00:06:40.240 --> 00:06:42.439 he hadn't seen a favorability swing of that magnitude 00:06:42.439 --> 00:06:45.560 since he began looking at polls in 1936. Wow. 00:06:45.819 --> 00:06:48.040 Yeah. Another Gallup poll for Newsweek had Bush 00:06:48.040 --> 00:06:52.009 up 51 to 42 percent. The six words worked. They 00:06:52.009 --> 00:06:53.750 propelled him to the presidency. They won the 00:06:53.750 --> 00:06:56.569 campaign. But then January arrives, the inauguration 00:06:56.569 --> 00:06:58.629 happens, and the confetti is swept up. Now, the 00:06:58.629 --> 00:07:00.610 Bush administration has to actually govern, and 00:07:00.610 --> 00:07:03.149 they immediately hit a massive catch -22. The 00:07:03.149 --> 00:07:05.769 economic reality sets in. Right. During the campaign, 00:07:05.990 --> 00:07:08.029 the figures they used to promise no new taxes 00:07:08.029 --> 00:07:10.089 were entirely based on the assumption that the 00:07:10.089 --> 00:07:12.269 high rates of economic growth from the late 1980s 00:07:12.269 --> 00:07:14.350 would just continue indefinitely throughout his 00:07:14.350 --> 00:07:16.889 entire time in office. But the economy had other 00:07:16.889 --> 00:07:20.730 plans. It sure did. A recession hit. And by 1990, 00:07:21.029 --> 00:07:23.529 you had a declining economy paired with a growth 00:07:23.529 --> 00:07:26.129 in mandatory government spending. The result 00:07:26.129 --> 00:07:28.410 was that federal budget deficits began to balloon 00:07:28.410 --> 00:07:31.430 to alarming levels. This is the ultimate aha 00:07:31.430 --> 00:07:34.310 moment about American governance. Bush didn't 00:07:34.310 --> 00:07:35.810 just break the pledge because he changed his 00:07:35.810 --> 00:07:38.509 mind. He was legally trapped by a prior law. 00:07:38.939 --> 00:07:41.120 The Graham -Redmond -Hollings Balanced Budget 00:07:41.120 --> 00:07:43.980 Act that mandated deficit reduction. That is 00:07:43.980 --> 00:07:46.819 such a critical point. If the government couldn't 00:07:46.819 --> 00:07:48.879 agree on how to reduce the deficit, the Graham 00:07:48.879 --> 00:07:51.160 -Redmond -Hollings Act would trigger mandatory 00:07:51.160 --> 00:07:54.279 sweeping across -the -board cuts. And to reduce 00:07:54.279 --> 00:07:56.160 a deficit that size without raising revenue, 00:07:56.360 --> 00:07:59.500 without taxes, you only have one option, massive 00:07:59.500 --> 00:08:01.800 spending cuts to programs with huge budgets. 00:08:02.040 --> 00:08:04.480 Which meant slashing things like Medicare, Social 00:08:04.480 --> 00:08:06.819 Security, or national defense. It was political 00:08:06.819 --> 00:08:09.870 suicide. Nope. politician, Republican or Democrat, 00:08:10.149 --> 00:08:12.470 wanted to touch those programs with a 10 -foot 00:08:12.470 --> 00:08:15.889 pole. So a standoff begins. Bush initially presents 00:08:15.889 --> 00:08:18.170 Congress with a proposed budget that sticks to 00:08:18.170 --> 00:08:20.670 his pledge. It contains those steep spending 00:08:20.670 --> 00:08:23.810 cuts and zero new taxes. But Congress is controlled 00:08:23.810 --> 00:08:26.589 by Democrats and they dismiss this budget out 00:08:26.589 --> 00:08:28.610 of hand. They won't even entertain it. Dead on 00:08:28.610 --> 00:08:31.470 arrival. Completely. Negotiations start, but 00:08:31.470 --> 00:08:33.649 it becomes glaringly obvious that little to no 00:08:33.649 --> 00:08:35.730 progress can be made without some sort of compromise 00:08:35.730 --> 00:08:38.820 on taxes. The number simply do not add up without 00:08:38.820 --> 00:08:43.980 new revenue. Richard Darman, who, remember, warned 00:08:43.980 --> 00:08:46.059 against the pledge and is now the head of the 00:08:46.059 --> 00:08:48.120 Office of Management and Budget, along with White 00:08:48.120 --> 00:08:50.779 House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu, both realize 00:08:50.779 --> 00:08:54.100 a compromise is entirely unavoidable. And they 00:08:54.100 --> 00:08:56.840 aren't alone in this realization. Other prominent 00:08:56.840 --> 00:08:59.580 Republicans like Gerald Ford, Paul O 'Neill and 00:08:59.580 --> 00:09:02.480 Lamar Alexander also publicly come out in favor 00:09:02.480 --> 00:09:05.220 of a tax increase to solve the crisis. Here's 00:09:05.220 --> 00:09:07.659 where it gets really interesting. In late June 00:09:07.659 --> 00:09:10.559 of 1990, President Bush releases a statement. 00:09:10.679 --> 00:09:13.700 It's carefully worded, but the meaning is unmistakable. 00:09:13.860 --> 00:09:16.340 He states that the size of the deficit problem 00:09:16.340 --> 00:09:18.980 requires a package that includes several things 00:09:18.980 --> 00:09:21.759 like entitlement reform, spending reductions. 00:09:21.860 --> 00:09:25.200 And here it is. Tax revenue increases. Tax revenue 00:09:25.200 --> 00:09:28.940 increases. Those three words were the undoing 00:09:28.940 --> 00:09:31.419 of the six words from New Orleans. Initially, 00:09:31.419 --> 00:09:33.860 the administration tried to spin it. They argued 00:09:33.860 --> 00:09:35.779 that tax revenue increases didn't necessarily 00:09:35.779 --> 00:09:38.940 mean raising the actual tax rates. Maybe it meant 00:09:38.940 --> 00:09:40.720 the government would just work to increase overall 00:09:40.720 --> 00:09:43.480 taxable income by growing the economy. A bit 00:09:43.480 --> 00:09:45.679 of mental gymnastics there. Exactly. But Bush 00:09:45.679 --> 00:09:48.519 soon confirmed the blunt truth. Tax increases 00:09:48.519 --> 00:09:51.259 were officially on the negotiating table. The 00:09:51.259 --> 00:09:54.120 media and political fallout was nuclear. The 00:09:54.120 --> 00:09:56.659 very next day, the New York Post ran a giant 00:09:56.659 --> 00:09:59.299 headline that simply read, Read my lips, I lied. 00:09:59.559 --> 00:10:02.279 The anger was palpable, especially from within 00:10:02.279 --> 00:10:05.139 his own party. Some of the most enraged individuals 00:10:05.139 --> 00:10:07.860 were fellow Republicans, including House Whip 00:10:07.860 --> 00:10:10.620 Newt Gingrich, the Senate leadership, and even 00:10:10.620 --> 00:10:13.779 Vice President Dan Quayle. They felt Bush had 00:10:13.779 --> 00:10:16.500 single handedly destroyed the Republican Party's 00:10:16.500 --> 00:10:19.580 most potent election plank for years to come. 00:10:19.659 --> 00:10:22.379 Yeah. And compounding the anger was the fact 00:10:22.379 --> 00:10:24.179 that the Republican leadership in Congress wasn't 00:10:24.179 --> 00:10:27.059 even consulted before Bush made the deal. It 00:10:27.059 --> 00:10:30.200 turned into a bitter open feud within the party. 00:10:31.120 --> 00:10:34.179 There is this incredible fly on the wall moment 00:10:34.179 --> 00:10:37.000 from the aftermath. Chief of Staff Sununu picks 00:10:37.000 --> 00:10:38.919 up the phone to personally give Newt Gingrich 00:10:38.919 --> 00:10:41.500 the news about the tax compromise. And Gingrich 00:10:41.500 --> 00:10:43.960 is so furious, he just slams the phone down on 00:10:43.960 --> 00:10:45.860 him. It was a total fracture of the coalition 00:10:45.860 --> 00:10:48.460 that elected him. When Republican Senator Trent 00:10:48.460 --> 00:10:50.879 Lott publicly questioned the reversal, Sununu 00:10:50.879 --> 00:10:53.120 went to the press and called Lott an insignificant 00:10:53.120 --> 00:10:56.139 figure in this process. Ouch. Yeah. And it went 00:10:56.139 --> 00:10:58.980 further into the campaign apparatus. Ed Rollins, 00:10:59.080 --> 00:11:00.799 the co -chair of the Republican National Committee, 00:11:00.940 --> 00:11:02.960 issued a memo instructing Republican members 00:11:02.960 --> 00:11:05.419 of Congress to distance themselves from the president. 00:11:05.679 --> 00:11:07.840 Which makes perfect sense when you understand 00:11:07.840 --> 00:11:09.960 the structural reality of midterm elections. 00:11:10.679 --> 00:11:13.120 Ed Rollins is looking at this from the perspective 00:11:13.120 --> 00:11:16.340 of party survival. He sends out a memo essentially 00:11:16.340 --> 00:11:18.539 saying, if you want to keep your seat in Congress, 00:11:18.779 --> 00:11:21.799 run away from the president. And for doing his 00:11:21.799 --> 00:11:24.259 job, for trying to save the Republican majority, 00:11:24.580 --> 00:11:27.399 he is immediately fired by the White House. Wow. 00:11:27.740 --> 00:11:30.360 It shows just how toxic this single sentence 00:11:30.360 --> 00:11:33.220 had become. It was destroying careers on both 00:11:33.220 --> 00:11:35.220 ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. And the political 00:11:35.220 --> 00:11:37.919 damage to the president was catastrophic. Bush 00:11:37.919 --> 00:11:40.279 had enjoyed a historic high approval rating of 00:11:40.279 --> 00:11:43.720 79 percent early in his term. But by mid -October 00:11:43.720 --> 00:11:46.539 of 1990, his approval rating had plunged to 56 00:11:46.539 --> 00:11:49.490 percent. As a quick side note, the events of 00:11:49.490 --> 00:11:51.529 the Gulf War eventually pushed this issue out 00:11:51.529 --> 00:11:53.289 of the news cycle momentarily. Right. The war 00:11:53.289 --> 00:11:55.950 changed the focus. Exactly. By February 1991, 00:11:56.129 --> 00:11:58.450 following the swift victory in the war, his approval 00:11:58.450 --> 00:12:01.710 rating soared to a massive 89 percent. But that 00:12:01.710 --> 00:12:04.529 was a temporary mask over a deep structural political 00:12:04.529 --> 00:12:07.669 wound. The tax issue was waiting for him. And 00:12:07.669 --> 00:12:10.730 that wound became a matter of legal record. On 00:12:10.730 --> 00:12:13.870 November 5th, 1990, Bush signed the Omnibus Budget 00:12:13.870 --> 00:12:17.879 Reconciliation Act of 1990. This was the actual 00:12:17.879 --> 00:12:20.580 legislation that broke the pledge, and it raised 00:12:20.580 --> 00:12:23.379 multiple taxes. This wasn't just a minor administrative 00:12:23.379 --> 00:12:26.279 fee adjustment. Not at all. Instead of just tweaking 00:12:26.279 --> 00:12:28.899 the margins, this law hit everywhere. The top 00:12:28.899 --> 00:12:31.940 income tax bracket went up from 28 % to 31%. 00:12:31.940 --> 00:12:33.940 They raised the alternative minimum tax from 00:12:33.940 --> 00:12:37.120 21 % to 24%, which essentially ensured wealthy 00:12:37.120 --> 00:12:39.539 individuals couldn't use deductions and loopholes 00:12:39.539 --> 00:12:42.830 to pay nothing. Capital gains were capped. They 00:12:42.830 --> 00:12:45.149 even raised taxes on basic payrolls and excise 00:12:45.149 --> 00:12:48.009 taxes. It was sweeping. Very sweeping. While 00:12:48.009 --> 00:12:50.169 it did increase access to the earned income tax 00:12:50.169 --> 00:12:53.009 credit for low -income families, it limited itemized 00:12:53.009 --> 00:12:55.470 deductions for high -income individuals. This 00:12:55.470 --> 00:12:58.629 wasn't a minor broken promise. This was a comprehensive 00:12:58.629 --> 00:13:01.389 across -the -board tax hike that voters felt 00:13:01.389 --> 00:13:03.529 immediately in their wallets. The pledge was 00:13:03.529 --> 00:13:05.710 definitively broken in writing. Which brings 00:13:05.710 --> 00:13:09.730 us to the reckoning. The 1992 presidential election. 00:13:10.279 --> 00:13:13.019 The broken pledge dogged Bush for the entirety 00:13:13.019 --> 00:13:15.500 of the campaign, and he faced fierce attacks 00:13:15.500 --> 00:13:18.539 from every angle. We must look impartially at 00:13:18.539 --> 00:13:21.019 how both the right and the left utilized this 00:13:21.019 --> 00:13:23.120 against him because it illustrates the impossible 00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:25.720 squeeze he was in. Let's start with the political 00:13:25.720 --> 00:13:29.240 right. Pat Buchanan used the broken pledge as 00:13:29.240 --> 00:13:31.759 a primary weapon to challenge Bush for the Republican 00:13:31.759 --> 00:13:34.490 nomination. On the very day he entered the race, 00:13:34.649 --> 00:13:37.210 Buchanan stated that Republicans could no longer 00:13:37.210 --> 00:13:39.889 blame everything on liberals. He hammered home 00:13:39.889 --> 00:13:42.269 that it wasn't a liberal Democrat who said, read 00:13:42.269 --> 00:13:45.049 my lips, no new taxes, and then cut a backroom 00:13:45.049 --> 00:13:47.110 deal with big spenders. He was ruthless with 00:13:47.110 --> 00:13:50.250 it. Buchanan used the 1988 quote constantly in 00:13:50.250 --> 00:13:52.289 television and radio ads during the New Hampshire 00:13:52.289 --> 00:13:54.879 primary. playing the audio of Bush's own voice 00:13:54.879 --> 00:13:57.159 on a loop. And it worked to a shocking degree. 00:13:57.440 --> 00:13:59.759 Buchanan won a surprising 40 % of the vote in 00:13:59.759 --> 00:14:02.019 New Hampshire. Winning 40 % against a sitting 00:14:02.019 --> 00:14:04.220 incumbent president in a primary is a massive 00:14:04.220 --> 00:14:06.980 rebuff. It signals profound weakness and a base 00:14:06.980 --> 00:14:09.860 that is actively in revolt. Faced with this intense 00:14:09.860 --> 00:14:12.820 pressure from his own party, Bush's initial response 00:14:12.820 --> 00:14:15.860 was to logically explain that raising taxes was 00:14:15.860 --> 00:14:18.179 essential due to the condition of the economy. 00:14:19.240 --> 00:14:21.639 Polling actually showed that most Americans agreed 00:14:21.639 --> 00:14:24.679 some tax increases were necessary. The real problem 00:14:24.679 --> 00:14:27.159 wasn't the policy itself. It was the total loss 00:14:27.159 --> 00:14:30.960 of trust. Recognizing this, Bush changed his 00:14:30.960 --> 00:14:34.019 strategy. By the time the primary moved to Georgia, 00:14:34.139 --> 00:14:36.980 he began actively apologizing for raising taxes. 00:14:37.320 --> 00:14:40.419 He told the public, I did it and I regret it 00:14:40.419 --> 00:14:44.059 and I regret it. In an October debate, he repeatedly 00:14:44.059 --> 00:14:46.259 called it a mistake, saying he should have held 00:14:46.259 --> 00:14:48.360 out for a better deal. But the apologies proved 00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.840 completely ineffective because as soon as he 00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:53.019 pivoted to the general election, the attack came 00:14:53.019 --> 00:14:55.340 from the political left. The Democratic nominee, 00:14:55.559 --> 00:14:57.360 Bill Clinton, who was running as a moderate, 00:14:57.559 --> 00:15:00.100 used the broken pledge to systematically attack 00:15:00.100 --> 00:15:02.779 Bush's character and trustworthiness. Using his 00:15:02.779 --> 00:15:05.759 own words against him. Exactly. Clinton's campaign 00:15:05.759 --> 00:15:08.379 strategist, James Carville, designed a television 00:15:08.379 --> 00:15:10.720 commercial that had Bush repeating the read my 00:15:10.720 --> 00:15:13.799 lips phrase. It was designed to illustrate a 00:15:13.799 --> 00:15:16.240 broken promise, and it is generally regarded 00:15:16.240 --> 00:15:18.700 as one of the most devastatingly effective ads 00:15:18.700 --> 00:15:21.860 of Clinton's campaign. Despite various scandals 00:15:21.860 --> 00:15:24.340 surrounding Clinton at the time, polls showed 00:15:24.340 --> 00:15:27.120 the public viewed both men as similar in integrity, 00:15:27.399 --> 00:15:29.820 largely because of that singular tax reversal. 00:15:30.639 --> 00:15:33.000 Adding another massive layer of complexity to 00:15:33.000 --> 00:15:35.620 this dynamic was the entrance of Ross Perot. 00:15:36.539 --> 00:15:39.159 Capitalizing on the public's widespread disenchantment 00:15:39.159 --> 00:15:41.379 with the status quo and broken promises from 00:15:41.379 --> 00:15:43.799 Washington, Perot ran as an independent candidate. 00:15:44.220 --> 00:15:46.519 While there has been much speculation about Perot's 00:15:46.519 --> 00:15:48.860 specific effect on the race, exit polls show 00:15:48.860 --> 00:15:50.919 that he essentially drew votes evenly from both 00:15:50.919 --> 00:15:53.990 Bush and Clinton. Ultimately, caught in a vice 00:15:53.990 --> 00:15:56.690 between his alienated conservative base, a moderate 00:15:56.690 --> 00:15:58.669 Democratic challenger and a populist independent, 00:15:59.110 --> 00:16:01.210 Bush lost his bid for reelection. It was the 00:16:01.210 --> 00:16:03.610 perfect storm. So what does this all mean? When 00:16:03.610 --> 00:16:05.710 historians and political insiders look back at 00:16:05.710 --> 00:16:07.669 this sequence of events, how do they interpret 00:16:07.669 --> 00:16:10.460 it? There are widely competing interpretations 00:16:10.460 --> 00:16:13.139 of what this moment represents in political history. 00:16:13.379 --> 00:16:16.240 On one side, you have voices like conservative 00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:19.379 talk show host Rush Limbaugh and Republican pollster 00:16:19.379 --> 00:16:22.320 Richard Werthlin. Werthlin actually called the 00:16:22.320 --> 00:16:25.100 pledge the six most destructive words in the 00:16:25.100 --> 00:16:27.320 history of presidential politics. That's a heavy 00:16:27.320 --> 00:16:30.620 label. It is. Ed Rollins called it the most serious 00:16:30.620 --> 00:16:33.580 violation of a political pledge anyone has ever 00:16:33.580 --> 00:16:36.600 made. Even Bush's own White House press secretary, 00:16:36.799 --> 00:16:38.779 Marlon Fitzgerald, water called the reversal 00:16:38.779 --> 00:16:41.080 the single biggest mistake of the administration. 00:16:41.720 --> 00:16:44.299 But not everyone agrees the pledge itself was 00:16:44.299 --> 00:16:46.720 the fatal blow, right? Right. Richard Darman, 00:16:46.940 --> 00:16:49.100 the advisor who tried to cross the phrase out 00:16:49.100 --> 00:16:51.340 in the first place, argued that the reversal 00:16:51.340 --> 00:16:53.399 wasn't the central reason for Bush's defeat. 00:16:53.799 --> 00:16:56.159 Darman believed the poor economy itself caused 00:16:56.159 --> 00:16:58.720 the loss, and the broken pledge merely became 00:16:58.720 --> 00:17:01.639 a highly convenient, visible focal point for 00:17:01.639 --> 00:17:04.599 the public's broader economic discontent. And 00:17:04.599 --> 00:17:06.359 then there's a completely different perspective 00:17:06.359 --> 00:17:09.059 from scholars like Daniel L. Ostrander. What 00:17:09.059 --> 00:17:11.559 does he say? He argues that Bush's actions were 00:17:11.559 --> 00:17:14.410 actually incredibly noble. In this view, Bush 00:17:14.410 --> 00:17:16.750 knew breaking the pledge would destroy his political 00:17:16.750 --> 00:17:19.589 future, but he deliberately fell on his sword, 00:17:19.750 --> 00:17:22.049 taking the political hit for the economic well 00:17:22.049 --> 00:17:24.670 -being of the nation. That's a fascinating contrast. 00:17:25.069 --> 00:17:27.849 It's either the ultimate political sin or the 00:17:27.849 --> 00:17:30.230 ultimate political sacrifice. What's fascinating 00:17:30.230 --> 00:17:32.450 here is how the ripple effects of this single 00:17:32.450 --> 00:17:35.829 decision reshaped politics for years. Take Newt 00:17:35.829 --> 00:17:38.329 Gingrich. As a member of the Congressional Negotiating 00:17:38.329 --> 00:17:40.990 Committee, he adamantly refused to endorse Bush's 00:17:40.990 --> 00:17:43.990 compromise. He then led... led over 100 Republican 00:17:43.990 --> 00:17:46.349 House members in voting against the president's 00:17:46.349 --> 00:17:49.329 first budget proposal. This very public act of 00:17:49.329 --> 00:17:51.490 defiance made Gingrich a hero to conservatives, 00:17:51.869 --> 00:17:54.089 directly propelling him into the leadership role 00:17:54.089 --> 00:17:56.269 that drove the Republican Revolution of 1994. 00:17:56.829 --> 00:17:58.710 And it fundamentally affected the Democrats, 00:17:58.910 --> 00:18:01.250 too. Even after winning the presidency, Bill 00:18:01.250 --> 00:18:03.789 Clinton was terrified of the exact same voter 00:18:03.789 --> 00:18:07.269 retribution. Early in his first term, confronted 00:18:07.269 --> 00:18:09.750 with a larger than expected deficit, Clinton 00:18:09.750 --> 00:18:12.339 raised taxes to deal with it. He did this against 00:18:12.339 --> 00:18:14.819 the frantic advice of his own aides, who warned 00:18:14.819 --> 00:18:16.859 him he was breaking his own campaign promise 00:18:16.859 --> 00:18:19.420 of a middle class tax cut. The shadow of read 00:18:19.420 --> 00:18:21.900 my lips was hanging heavy over the Oval Office, 00:18:22.079 --> 00:18:25.579 dictating strategy across party lines. The phrase 00:18:25.579 --> 00:18:27.859 itself lived on, echoing through history as both 00:18:27.859 --> 00:18:30.490 a template and a warning. During a Republican 00:18:30.490 --> 00:18:33.390 primary debate in New Hampshire in 2000, George 00:18:33.390 --> 00:18:36.029 W. Bush, the former president's son, was asked 00:18:36.029 --> 00:18:38.369 about his economic plans. The reporter specifically 00:18:38.369 --> 00:18:41.230 asked, is this no new taxes, so help me God? 00:18:41.569 --> 00:18:44.029 George W. Bush replied, this is not only no new 00:18:44.029 --> 00:18:46.829 taxes, this is a tax cut, so help me God. The 00:18:46.829 --> 00:18:49.690 echoes went global, too. In 2009, the Irish Minister 00:18:49.690 --> 00:18:52.529 for Finance, Brian Lennon Jr., promised not to 00:18:52.529 --> 00:18:55.410 raise taxes by saying, read my lips, no tax hikes. 00:18:55.529 --> 00:18:57.630 And ahead of the 2019 United Kingdom general 00:18:57.630 --> 00:18:59.930 election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson explicitly 00:18:59.930 --> 00:19:02.250 evoked the phrase, telling the public, read my 00:19:02.250 --> 00:19:04.809 lips, we will not be raising taxes. Though much 00:19:04.809 --> 00:19:07.609 like Bush, Johnson reversed his pledge in 2021 00:19:07.609 --> 00:19:10.730 by proposing a tax increase to subsidize health 00:19:10.730 --> 00:19:13.230 and social care. The phrase is practically a 00:19:13.230 --> 00:19:15.589 cursed artifact in democratic politics at this 00:19:15.589 --> 00:19:17.779 point. If we connect this to the bigger picture, 00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:21.200 this deep dive perfectly encapsulates the dangerous, 00:19:21.339 --> 00:19:23.819 almost inevitable friction between campaigning 00:19:23.819 --> 00:19:27.500 and governing. Campaigns demand absolute black 00:19:27.500 --> 00:19:30.099 and white promises. They demand simple, catchy 00:19:30.099 --> 00:19:32.640 slogans that rally a base and project strength. 00:19:32.940 --> 00:19:36.259 But actual governance requires navigating a complex, 00:19:36.539 --> 00:19:39.839 unpredictable reality. It requires nuance, negotiation, 00:19:39.960 --> 00:19:42.779 and the difficult math of compromise. That brings 00:19:42.779 --> 00:19:44.950 us back to you, the listener. The next time you 00:19:44.950 --> 00:19:47.049 are watching a debate or seeing a political ad 00:19:47.049 --> 00:19:50.049 and you hear a candidate make an ironclad, incredibly 00:19:50.049 --> 00:19:52.710 catchy promise about the future, you now know 00:19:52.710 --> 00:19:54.990 the historical precedent. You know the institutional 00:19:54.990 --> 00:19:57.390 traps that lie in wait. And you know exactly 00:19:57.390 --> 00:19:59.390 what happens when an immovable pledge crashes 00:19:59.390 --> 00:20:01.910 headfirst into economic reality. This raises 00:20:01.910 --> 00:20:03.910 an important question to leave you with today. 00:20:04.309 --> 00:20:06.730 When a political pledge becomes mathematically 00:20:06.730 --> 00:20:09.690 impossible to keep without severely harming the 00:20:09.690 --> 00:20:12.569 country's economy, what is the true mark of a 00:20:12.569 --> 00:20:15.170 leader? Is it better to stubbornly keep your 00:20:15.170 --> 00:20:17.509 word to the voters, even if it means sinking 00:20:17.509 --> 00:20:20.589 the ship? Or is it better to break your promise 00:20:20.589 --> 00:20:23.430 to save the ship, knowing full well it will sink 00:20:23.430 --> 00:20:25.589 your own career in the process? It's the ultimate 00:20:25.589 --> 00:20:27.869 political paradox, something to mull over as 00:20:27.869 --> 00:20:30.509 you watch the next election unfold. Thank you 00:20:30.509 --> 00:20:32.690 for joining us on this deep dive, and we'll catch 00:20:32.690 --> 00:20:33.230 you next time.