WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.060 Welcome to today's deep dive. Hello, everyone. 00:00:02.160 --> 00:00:04.960 If you are joining us right now, it means you 00:00:04.960 --> 00:00:07.400 have a healthy appetite for discovery. Absolutely. 00:00:07.599 --> 00:00:10.039 Whether you are actively prepping for the upcoming 00:00:10.039 --> 00:00:14.480 2026 elections or you're just. insanely curious 00:00:14.480 --> 00:00:16.879 about the hidden mechanics of American politics, 00:00:17.219 --> 00:00:19.699 we have something really special for you today. 00:00:19.940 --> 00:00:22.199 We really do. We're looking at a source that 00:00:22.199 --> 00:00:24.899 on its surface, I mean, it might look like just 00:00:24.899 --> 00:00:28.460 another dry Wikipedia article. It's titled List 00:00:28.460 --> 00:00:30.699 of United States Senate Elections in Alaska. 00:00:31.160 --> 00:00:33.079 And honestly, if you just scroll through it, 00:00:33.159 --> 00:00:36.920 it presents as a massive wall of data. Just rows 00:00:36.920 --> 00:00:40.280 and rows. Right. Just decades of rows, names 00:00:40.280 --> 00:00:42.810 and election results. It can be a little intimidating 00:00:42.810 --> 00:00:45.310 to just look at. But our mission today is to 00:00:45.310 --> 00:00:47.969 look way beyond that spreadsheet. We want to 00:00:47.969 --> 00:00:51.070 extract the fascinating story of Alaska's political 00:00:51.070 --> 00:00:53.310 identity. Because the story is definitely in 00:00:53.310 --> 00:00:55.030 there. It really is. Because when you actually 00:00:55.030 --> 00:00:57.630 look at the trends inside these numbers, they 00:00:57.630 --> 00:01:00.070 hold some incredible surprises. You get to see 00:01:00.070 --> 00:01:03.179 how a brand new state. Forms its identity from 00:01:03.179 --> 00:01:07.200 scratch, how it rewards extreme loyalty. And 00:01:07.200 --> 00:01:09.579 how it occasionally throws a massive unprecedented 00:01:09.579 --> 00:01:12.159 curveball into the American political system. 00:01:12.260 --> 00:01:15.599 Exactly. OK, let's unpack this. So to really 00:01:15.599 --> 00:01:17.819 understand the story the data is telling us, 00:01:17.879 --> 00:01:20.280 we have to start with the foundational rules 00:01:20.280 --> 00:01:22.420 of the United States Senate. Right. The basics. 00:01:22.739 --> 00:01:25.219 Which the source actually outlines right at the 00:01:25.219 --> 00:01:27.500 top. The data is structured this way because 00:01:27.500 --> 00:01:31.200 the U .S. Constitution allots exactly. two Senate 00:01:31.200 --> 00:01:33.920 seats to every state. Completely regardless of 00:01:33.920 --> 00:01:36.420 population. Completely regardless. A huge state, 00:01:36.579 --> 00:01:39.599 a tiny state, they all get two. And these senators 00:01:39.599 --> 00:01:43.180 serve staggered six -year terms. That stagger 00:01:43.180 --> 00:01:45.420 is the crucial part of the puzzle, right? It 00:01:45.420 --> 00:01:47.280 is. Because they don't want the entire Senate 00:01:47.280 --> 00:01:49.859 turning over all at once. Precisely. The Senate 00:01:49.859 --> 00:01:52.140 is divided into three classes. The whole goal 00:01:52.140 --> 00:01:54.959 is to stagger the terms so that only one -third 00:01:54.959 --> 00:01:57.079 of the entire chamber is up for re -election 00:01:57.079 --> 00:01:59.379 during any given two -year cycle. Okay, got it. 00:01:59.609 --> 00:02:01.569 So when Alaska was officially admitted to the 00:02:01.569 --> 00:02:04.890 union in 1959, the state was assigned a class 00:02:04.890 --> 00:02:07.409 two seat and a class three seat. But the very 00:02:07.409 --> 00:02:09.389 first elections for those seats didn't happen 00:02:09.389 --> 00:02:12.169 in 59. Right. They actually took place the year 00:02:12.169 --> 00:02:16.150 prior in 1958 in anticipation of statehood. We 00:02:16.150 --> 00:02:18.349 also need to factor in the 17th Amendment. Yes. 00:02:18.710 --> 00:02:21.189 Crucial context. That was passed way back in 00:02:21.189 --> 00:02:24.449 1913, but it fundamentally dictates what we are 00:02:24.449 --> 00:02:27.009 looking at today. It does. That amendment is 00:02:27.009 --> 00:02:30.030 vital because it ensures that U .S. senators 00:02:30.030 --> 00:02:33.009 are elected directly by the voters of each state. 00:02:33.110 --> 00:02:35.729 Instead of the state legislature. Exactly. Originally, 00:02:35.789 --> 00:02:38.409 they were selected by state legislatures. So 00:02:38.409 --> 00:02:40.639 thanks to the 17th Amendment. The spreadsheet 00:02:40.639 --> 00:02:43.520 we are analyzing today represents the direct, 00:02:43.599 --> 00:02:46.699 unfiltered will of the Alaskan voters from 1958 00:02:46.699 --> 00:02:49.460 all the way to the present. It's pure voter data. 00:02:49.699 --> 00:02:52.000 It is. And just a quick note before we really 00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:54.020 jump into the timeline. Yeah. We aren't here 00:02:54.020 --> 00:02:56.180 to play political referee. Oh, definitely not. 00:02:56.319 --> 00:02:58.659 Our source material covers Democrats, Republicans, 00:02:59.120 --> 00:03:01.159 Independents, Libertarians, Green Party candidates, 00:03:01.360 --> 00:03:04.370 you name it. But our deep dive today is going 00:03:04.370 --> 00:03:06.530 to look strictly at the electoral mechanics. 00:03:06.889 --> 00:03:09.069 Just the numbers. Just the numbers, the voter 00:03:09.069 --> 00:03:12.610 behaviors, and the historical shifts. We aren't 00:03:12.610 --> 00:03:14.909 taking any sides or endorsing any platforms. 00:03:15.050 --> 00:03:18.729 We're just letting the data reveal Alaska's unique 00:03:18.729 --> 00:03:22.270 political DNA. I love that. impartiality is the 00:03:22.270 --> 00:03:23.750 name of the game here we are just following the 00:03:23.750 --> 00:03:26.949 data so set the scene for me we are at the genesis 00:03:26.949 --> 00:03:30.770 of alaskan politics it's 1958 right the state 00:03:30.770 --> 00:03:32.870 is on the verge of officially joining the union 00:03:32.870 --> 00:03:36.069 and they hold their first senate elections how 00:03:36.069 --> 00:03:40.289 do the voters react out of the gate it is a massive, 00:03:40.289 --> 00:03:42.469 undeniable sweep for the Democratic Party. A 00:03:42.469 --> 00:03:44.650 total sweep. And the margins aren't even close. 00:03:44.810 --> 00:03:46.810 On the class two side of the ticket, you have 00:03:46.810 --> 00:03:49.430 a candidate named Bob Bartlett running against 00:03:49.430 --> 00:03:51.969 Republican R .E. Robertson. OK. Bartlett doesn't 00:03:51.969 --> 00:03:54.610 just win. He absolutely steamrolls his opponent. 00:03:54.830 --> 00:03:58.590 He takes 83 .83 percent of the vote. Wait, over 00:03:58.590 --> 00:04:01.129 83 percent? Over 83 percent. That is a nearly 00:04:01.129 --> 00:04:04.050 five to one margin in a brand new state. That's 00:04:04.050 --> 00:04:06.349 not an election. That's a coronation. It really 00:04:06.349 --> 00:04:09.669 is. It's a staggering debut. And meanwhile, looking 00:04:09.669 --> 00:04:12.169 at the state's other Senate seat, the class three 00:04:12.169 --> 00:04:15.289 seat, Democrat Ernest Gruening wins his race 00:04:15.289 --> 00:04:18.610 against Mike Stepovich. Was it as much of a blowout? 00:04:18.990 --> 00:04:21.430 It's a slightly tighter race, but Groening still 00:04:21.430 --> 00:04:24.850 wins comfortably with 52 .61 % of the vote. Still 00:04:24.850 --> 00:04:27.269 a solid majority. What's fascinating here is 00:04:27.269 --> 00:04:30.209 the incumbency advantage that begins immediately 00:04:30.209 --> 00:04:32.829 in this newly minted state. Oh, right. They get 00:04:32.829 --> 00:04:34.850 in and they stay in. You have this initial election 00:04:34.850 --> 00:04:37.329 and then the voters simply lock in. They found 00:04:37.329 --> 00:04:39.029 their guys and they stuck with them. Exactly. 00:04:39.700 --> 00:04:43.360 Bartlett, after that massive 1958 win, goes on 00:04:43.360 --> 00:04:45.959 to win again in 1960. Keeping momentum. Yeah, 00:04:46.000 --> 00:04:48.939 and then he runs again in 1966, and his margin 00:04:48.939 --> 00:04:53.100 shoots back up to an overwhelming 75 .54%. Wow. 00:04:53.759 --> 00:04:56.860 Over 75 % for his third run. Over on the class 00:04:56.860 --> 00:04:59.160 three side, Ernest Groening holds onto his seat 00:04:59.160 --> 00:05:02.699 in 1962. So the early narrative is total stability. 00:05:02.899 --> 00:05:05.459 Very stable. Blue state, massive margins, incumbent 00:05:05.459 --> 00:05:08.399 safety. But just as you think the political concrete 00:05:08.399 --> 00:05:11.980 has dried, we hit the 1968 election. Right. This 00:05:11.980 --> 00:05:14.699 is the first major plot twist in the source material. 00:05:15.259 --> 00:05:17.399 This is where the mechanics of Alaskan elections 00:05:17.399 --> 00:05:19.300 start to look very different from the rest of 00:05:19.300 --> 00:05:22.019 the country. Walk us through it. In 1968, the 00:05:22.019 --> 00:05:24.639 class three seat is up for grabs. The winner 00:05:24.639 --> 00:05:27.459 is a Democrat named Mike Gravel, who takes 45 00:05:27.459 --> 00:05:30.819 .13 percent of the vote. OK, 45 percent. The 00:05:30.819 --> 00:05:33.660 runner up is a Republican, Elmer Rasmussen, who 00:05:33.660 --> 00:05:36.060 gets a respectable chunk. But the real story 00:05:36.060 --> 00:05:38.579 is in the others column. Right. The incumbent, 00:05:38.860 --> 00:05:40.720 Ernest Gruening, who had held the seat since 00:05:40.720 --> 00:05:43.930 1958. didn't actually win his party's nomination. 00:05:44.389 --> 00:05:46.990 He was entirely off the main ticket. So what 00:05:46.990 --> 00:05:49.269 does he do? He runs as a write -in candidate 00:05:49.269 --> 00:05:51.470 in the general election. Which is incredibly 00:05:51.470 --> 00:05:54.089 hard to do. And anyone who follows politics knows 00:05:54.089 --> 00:05:56.870 that Senate write -in campaigns are usually just 00:05:56.870 --> 00:05:59.170 protest theater. They almost never work out. 00:05:59.370 --> 00:06:03.389 But Gruning captures an impressive 17 .44 % of 00:06:03.389 --> 00:06:05.790 the electorate. That is a massive chunk for a 00:06:05.790 --> 00:06:08.750 write -in. Over 17 % of people bypass the printed 00:06:08.750 --> 00:06:11.350 names to write them in. To pull nearly a fifth 00:06:11.350 --> 00:06:14.029 of the total voting electorate strictly through 00:06:14.029 --> 00:06:17.470 a write -in campaign in the late 1960s is a massive 00:06:17.470 --> 00:06:20.370 logistical flex. It takes so much effort just 00:06:20.370 --> 00:06:22.670 to educate voters on how to do that. Exactly. 00:06:22.850 --> 00:06:26.149 It hints at an independent streak in the Alaskan 00:06:26.149 --> 00:06:28.990 voter. They are showing early on that they care 00:06:28.990 --> 00:06:31.870 just as much, if not more, about the specific 00:06:31.870 --> 00:06:33.970 individual as they do about the party label. 00:06:34.129 --> 00:06:36.350 That independent streak is going to become a 00:06:36.350 --> 00:06:39.189 recurring theme. It definitely will. But first... 00:06:39.420 --> 00:06:42.199 The data shows a seismic shift in the state's 00:06:42.199 --> 00:06:45.600 overall preference. We transition into what I'm 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:48.620 calling the era of titans. The titans, yes. The 00:06:48.620 --> 00:06:51.279 Alaskan Senate delegation turns from blue to 00:06:51.279 --> 00:06:54.120 deep red, bringing up two defining names that 00:06:54.120 --> 00:06:56.920 dominate this spreadsheet for decades. We're 00:06:56.920 --> 00:06:58.980 talking about Ted Stevens in the class two seat 00:06:58.980 --> 00:07:01.120 and Frank Murkowski in the class three seat. 00:07:01.339 --> 00:07:03.779 The mainstays. The sheer longevity of these two 00:07:03.779 --> 00:07:06.459 individuals is historically remarkable. Let's 00:07:06.459 --> 00:07:09.019 look at the Ted Stevens juggernaut first. You 00:07:09.019 --> 00:07:10.500 have the numbers there. Walk us through this 00:07:10.500 --> 00:07:13.000 streak. Stevens first takes the class two seat 00:07:13.000 --> 00:07:17.319 in a 1970 special election, winning with 59 .61 00:07:17.319 --> 00:07:20.139 percent of the vote. OK, almost 60 percent. And 00:07:20.139 --> 00:07:22.939 from there, it is an unbroken winning streak 00:07:22.939 --> 00:07:26.050 for decades. He rolls through the elections in 00:07:26.050 --> 00:07:31.750 1972, 1978, 1984, 1990, 1996, and 2002. Just 00:07:31.750 --> 00:07:34.670 nonstop. That is seven consecutive election victories. 00:07:34.970 --> 00:07:37.790 And he wasn't just scraping by either. Yo. Not 00:07:37.790 --> 00:07:40.189 at all. He is consistently pulling in overwhelming 00:07:40.189 --> 00:07:44.750 majorities. By 2002, he hits his absolute peak 00:07:44.750 --> 00:07:48.870 margin, securing an unbelievable 78 .17 % of 00:07:48.870 --> 00:07:51.769 the vote. Over 78%. It is total dominance in 00:07:51.769 --> 00:07:53.589 the electorate. Here's where it gets really interesting. 00:07:54.170 --> 00:07:56.470 While Stevens is locking down these massive statewide 00:07:56.470 --> 00:07:58.970 majorities, where are the protest votes going? 00:07:59.230 --> 00:08:01.449 That's a great question to ask of the data. Because 00:08:01.449 --> 00:08:03.870 the source data shows a sudden rise in strong 00:08:03.870 --> 00:08:06.430 third party showings during this exact same period. 00:08:06.689 --> 00:08:09.550 That's a crucial detail. In 1996, while Stevens 00:08:09.550 --> 00:08:12.069 was cruising to victory, a Green Party candidate 00:08:12.069 --> 00:08:16.009 named Jed Whitaker managed to grab 12 .52 % of 00:08:16.009 --> 00:08:18.750 the vote. 12 .5 % for the Green Party in a race 00:08:18.750 --> 00:08:20.930 where a Republican incumbent was utterly dominant. 00:08:21.069 --> 00:08:23.480 It's a huge anomaly for a third party. And it 00:08:23.480 --> 00:08:25.920 happens again. In 2002, when Stevens hit that 00:08:25.920 --> 00:08:28.779 absolute peak of 78 percent, another Green Party 00:08:28.779 --> 00:08:32.500 candidate, Jim Sykes, took 7 .24 percent. It 00:08:32.500 --> 00:08:35.000 is a fascinating duality. Yeah. You have massive 00:08:35.000 --> 00:08:37.879 incumbent support, but also these highly visible 00:08:37.879 --> 00:08:40.480 third party protest votes. Right. And we see 00:08:40.480 --> 00:08:42.460 a very similar pattern of stability with the 00:08:42.460 --> 00:08:45.299 class three seat during this era. Frank Murkowski 00:08:45.299 --> 00:08:48.220 establishes a remarkably steady hand. Following 00:08:48.220 --> 00:08:50.980 right in Stevens' footsteps. He first wins the 00:08:50.980 --> 00:08:54.039 seat in 1980. And then he just keeps winning 00:08:54.039 --> 00:08:58.559 through 1986, 1992 and 1998. Unbroken. Unbroken 00:08:58.559 --> 00:09:00.919 streak. Yeah. And just like Stevens, his margins 00:09:00.919 --> 00:09:03.799 actually grow over time. Murkowski's vote share 00:09:03.799 --> 00:09:07.820 peaks in 1998 at an overwhelming 74 .49 percent. 00:09:07.860 --> 00:09:10.100 Nearly 75 percent. So for a solid stretch of 00:09:10.100 --> 00:09:12.240 history, you have these two men, Stevens and 00:09:12.240 --> 00:09:15.159 Murkowski, effectively locking down the state's 00:09:15.159 --> 00:09:17.360 Senate representation. They were institutions. 00:09:17.620 --> 00:09:20.629 It is the definition of a safe game. It is. When 00:09:20.629 --> 00:09:22.710 we synthesize this era, the numbers reflect a 00:09:22.710 --> 00:09:25.590 period of immense voter loyalty. Long -term incumbency 00:09:25.590 --> 00:09:28.210 creates a powerful feedback loop. Well, voters 00:09:28.210 --> 00:09:30.529 get used to a specific name representing them 00:09:30.529 --> 00:09:34.049 on the national stage. The familiar names become 00:09:34.049 --> 00:09:37.429 synonymous with the state's interests. That familiarity 00:09:37.429 --> 00:09:40.370 breeds deep trust, and that trust translates 00:09:40.370 --> 00:09:42.409 into these towering percentage points at the 00:09:42.409 --> 00:09:44.830 ballot box. It becomes a habit to vote for them. 00:09:44.970 --> 00:09:48.710 Exactly. A deeply ingrained voter habit. But 00:09:48.710 --> 00:09:51.129 as any political historian will tell you, no 00:09:51.129 --> 00:09:53.649 era lasts forever. No, they certainly do not. 00:09:53.730 --> 00:09:55.850 And that brings us to the craziest part of this 00:09:55.850 --> 00:09:59.009 data, the sudden end of the certainty. After 00:09:59.009 --> 00:10:01.789 decades of predictable blowout victories, the 00:10:01.789 --> 00:10:04.429 spreadsheet suddenly shifts into an era of razor 00:10:04.429 --> 00:10:06.769 -thin margins and historic anomalies. The ground 00:10:06.769 --> 00:10:08.730 completely shifts under their feet. It starts 00:10:08.730 --> 00:10:11.009 with the 2008 election for the class two seat. 00:10:11.389 --> 00:10:14.210 The Ted Stevens era comes to an end in an absolute 00:10:14.210 --> 00:10:16.870 nail -biter. After nearly 40 years in office. 00:10:17.129 --> 00:10:19.929 Exactly. After decades, Stevens is defeated by 00:10:19.929 --> 00:10:22.570 Democrat Mark Begich. But look at the margin. 00:10:22.870 --> 00:10:26.429 It is incredibly tight. Begich gets 47 .77 % 00:10:26.429 --> 00:10:30.110 of the vote. Stevens gets 46 .52%. A difference 00:10:30.110 --> 00:10:32.570 of roughly one percentage point. Barely a margin 00:10:32.570 --> 00:10:35.879 at all. To see a decades long titan unseated 00:10:35.879 --> 00:10:38.419 by such a tiny fraction of the electorate is 00:10:38.419 --> 00:10:40.620 stunning. It perfectly illustrates how quickly 00:10:40.620 --> 00:10:43.320 voter sentiment can tip. You go from nearly 80 00:10:43.320 --> 00:10:46.159 percent to losing the seat entirely. Just a wild 00:10:46.159 --> 00:10:49.690 swing. But if 2008 was a tight race, the 2010 00:10:49.690 --> 00:10:52.370 election for the class three seat defies modern 00:10:52.370 --> 00:10:54.929 political logic entirely. It really does. This 00:10:54.929 --> 00:10:57.070 is the absolute masterpiece of the data set. 00:10:57.210 --> 00:10:59.850 Lisa Murkowski had first won the seat in 2004. 00:11:00.110 --> 00:11:02.830 Right. But in 2010, she doesn't secure the Republican 00:11:02.830 --> 00:11:04.990 nomination. Which usually means your campaign 00:11:04.990 --> 00:11:07.629 is over. Exactly. So she attempts a write -in 00:11:07.629 --> 00:11:09.730 campaign for the general election. Now, keep 00:11:09.730 --> 00:11:12.149 in mind what we discussed about Ernest Gruening's 00:11:12.149 --> 00:11:14.690 write -in campaign back in 1968. Right. The 17 00:11:14.690 --> 00:11:16.820 percent. Gruening pulled an impression. of 17 00:11:16.820 --> 00:11:21.139 .44%, but he still lost the race handily. Lisa 00:11:21.139 --> 00:11:24.220 Murkowski's 2010 campaign is a different beast 00:11:24.220 --> 00:11:27.220 entirely. The numbers here are just wild. As 00:11:27.220 --> 00:11:30.279 a write -in candidate, Murkowski secures 36 .08 00:11:30.279 --> 00:11:33.740 % of the vote. 36%, for a name not even on the 00:11:33.740 --> 00:11:36.399 ballot. She beats the official Republican candidate, 00:11:36.539 --> 00:11:40.580 Joe Miller, who gets 35 .27%, and the Democratic 00:11:40.580 --> 00:11:45.039 candidate, Scott McAdams, who gets 23 .32%. Unbelievable. 00:11:45.259 --> 00:11:48.480 She wins the United States Senate seat by a fraction 00:11:48.480 --> 00:11:50.620 of a percentage point over the official nominee, 00:11:50.879 --> 00:11:53.320 and her name was not printed on the ballot. If 00:11:53.320 --> 00:11:55.480 we connect this to the bigger picture, we really 00:11:55.480 --> 00:11:58.590 have to pause and appreciate the... statistical 00:11:58.590 --> 00:12:00.950 unlikelihood of this event. It's basically unheard 00:12:00.950 --> 00:12:03.789 of. To mobilize that many voters across a state 00:12:03.789 --> 00:12:07.450 as massive and geographically complex as Alaska 00:12:07.450 --> 00:12:09.690 and get them to correctly write your name on 00:12:09.690 --> 00:12:13.230 a blank line. It is a staggering anomaly in modern 00:12:13.230 --> 00:12:15.710 American political history. It's a huge mechanical 00:12:15.710 --> 00:12:18.750 challenge. Huge. It perfectly echoes that independent 00:12:18.750 --> 00:12:21.789 spirit we saw glimpses of back in 1968. But this 00:12:21.789 --> 00:12:25.000 time it was fully realized. It proves definitively 00:12:25.000 --> 00:12:27.600 that Alaskan voters are deeply willing to buck 00:12:27.600 --> 00:12:30.000 traditional party lines to support a specific 00:12:30.000 --> 00:12:32.299 individual. They looked at the traditional two 00:12:32.299 --> 00:12:34.820 party ballot structure, rejected it and essentially 00:12:34.820 --> 00:12:37.080 forced their preferred candidate into office 00:12:37.080 --> 00:12:39.639 through sheer willpower. That's exactly what 00:12:39.639 --> 00:12:41.980 the data shows. It really sets the stage for 00:12:41.980 --> 00:12:44.740 the modern era of Alaskan politics, where independent 00:12:44.740 --> 00:12:47.440 voices carry massive weight. The stability of 00:12:47.440 --> 00:12:49.899 the Stevens and early Murkowski era is definitely 00:12:49.899 --> 00:12:51.820 in the rearview mirror by this point. Without 00:12:51.820 --> 00:12:54.639 a doubt. Mark Begich, who barely unseated Stevens 00:12:54.639 --> 00:12:57.700 in 2008, finds his time in the class two seat 00:12:57.700 --> 00:13:01.000 is very short -lived. A single term. Right. Just 00:13:01.000 --> 00:13:04.220 one term later, in 2014, Republican Dan Sullivan 00:13:04.220 --> 00:13:07.279 flips the seat back to red. Sullivan wins with 00:13:07.279 --> 00:13:12.820 47 .96 % to Begich. which is 45 .83%. Again, 00:13:12.960 --> 00:13:15.559 we are looking at incredibly tight margins. Just 00:13:15.559 --> 00:13:17.379 a couple of percentage points. But look at what 00:13:17.379 --> 00:13:19.580 happens when Sullivan defends that seat in the 00:13:19.580 --> 00:13:21.639 2020 election. He doesn't face a traditional 00:13:21.639 --> 00:13:23.840 Democratic challenger. No, he doesn't. He faces 00:13:23.840 --> 00:13:26.539 an independent candidate named Al Gross. And 00:13:26.539 --> 00:13:30.259 Gross secures a highly notable 41 .19 % of the 00:13:30.259 --> 00:13:33.100 vote. 41 % for an independent. A massive chunk 00:13:33.100 --> 00:13:35.860 of Alaskans chose someone explicitly outside 00:13:35.860 --> 00:13:38.440 the traditional two -party system. And we see 00:13:38.440 --> 00:13:41.639 that exact same multi -party chaos brewing in 00:13:41.639 --> 00:13:44.059 the class three seat. Look at Lisa Murkowski's 00:13:44.059 --> 00:13:46.799 continuing saga in her 2016 re -election campaign. 00:13:47.059 --> 00:13:49.860 Okay, let's look at 2016. She wins the seat with 00:13:49.860 --> 00:13:54.120 44 .36 % of the vote. But the field she was up 00:13:54.120 --> 00:13:56.019 against is fascinating. It really is a crowded 00:13:56.019 --> 00:13:58.679 field. The runner -up wasn't a Democrat. It was 00:13:58.679 --> 00:14:01.529 Joe Miller. the same guy from 2010, but this 00:14:01.529 --> 00:14:03.710 time running as a libertarian. A libertarian 00:14:03.710 --> 00:14:07.590 runner -up. And he pulls in 29 .16 % of the vote, 00:14:07.690 --> 00:14:11.250 nearly 30%. Incredible. Then you have an independent 00:14:11.250 --> 00:14:15.669 candidate, Margaret Stock, taking 13 .23%. And 00:14:15.669 --> 00:14:18.049 the Democrats. The official Democrat, Ray Metcalf, 00:14:18.250 --> 00:14:22.450 came in fourth with just 11 .62%. So the traditional 00:14:22.450 --> 00:14:24.549 Democratic and Republican binary is completely 00:14:24.549 --> 00:14:27.610 fractured in that race. You have four totally 00:14:27.610 --> 00:14:29.990 distinct blocks of voters putting double digit 00:14:29.990 --> 00:14:32.350 percentages. Which perfectly explains the massive 00:14:32.350 --> 00:14:35.230 system change noted in the 2022 election data. 00:14:35.490 --> 00:14:38.230 Ah, yes. This is the latest twist in the source 00:14:38.230 --> 00:14:41.210 material. Yes. There is a specific crucial note 00:14:41.210 --> 00:14:44.029 attached to the 2022 class three election data. 00:14:44.190 --> 00:14:46.450 What's it say? It states that the election was 00:14:46.450 --> 00:14:48.769 held using instant runoff voting and results 00:14:48.769 --> 00:14:51.179 from the maximum round are shown. So we aren't 00:14:51.179 --> 00:14:53.080 just looking at a new candidate. We are looking 00:14:53.080 --> 00:14:55.200 at a fundamentally different way of counting 00:14:55.200 --> 00:14:57.860 votes. Break down the mechanics of that for us. 00:14:58.039 --> 00:15:00.600 Sure. In a traditional American election, you 00:15:00.600 --> 00:15:02.759 pick one candidate and whoever gets the most 00:15:02.759 --> 00:15:06.220 votes wins the seat, even if they only get 34 00:15:06.220 --> 00:15:08.480 percent in a crowded field. Right. Plurality 00:15:08.480 --> 00:15:11.879 wins. But instant runoff voting, which is often 00:15:11.879 --> 00:15:14.639 called ranked choice voting, allows voters to 00:15:14.639 --> 00:15:17.159 rank their choices from favorite to least favorite. 00:15:17.500 --> 00:15:20.980 Rank them one, two, three, four. Exactly. If 00:15:20.980 --> 00:15:23.539 no candidate gets a clear majority, meaning over 00:15:23.539 --> 00:15:26.220 50 % in the first count, the candidate with the 00:15:26.220 --> 00:15:28.559 fewest votes is eliminated. And their votes don't 00:15:28.559 --> 00:15:30.720 just disappear. No, they don't. Those voters' 00:15:30.779 --> 00:15:32.639 second choices are then distributed to the remaining 00:15:32.639 --> 00:15:35.259 candidates. This process happens in consecutive 00:15:35.259 --> 00:15:38.279 rounds until someone crosses that 50 % threshold. 00:15:38.580 --> 00:15:41.539 So looking at the data for 2022, Lisa Murkowski 00:15:41.539 --> 00:15:44.139 defeats fellow Republican Kelly Chewbacca. Yes. 00:15:44.590 --> 00:15:47.389 The final tally in that maximum round shows Murkowski 00:15:47.389 --> 00:15:52.809 at 53 .7 in 0 % to Chewbacca's 46 .30%. Right. 00:15:52.929 --> 00:15:56.330 That maximum round refers to the final tally 00:15:56.330 --> 00:15:59.250 after all the lower ranked candidates, the Democrats, 00:15:59.529 --> 00:16:02.370 the independents, have been eliminated and their 00:16:02.370 --> 00:16:05.710 voters' subsequent preferences have been reallocated. 00:16:05.809 --> 00:16:08.909 It totally changes the math. This system completely 00:16:08.909 --> 00:16:11.830 alters campaign strategy. You don't just want 00:16:11.830 --> 00:16:14.509 to be a voter's first choice. You desperately 00:16:14.509 --> 00:16:16.730 want to be their second choice if you can't be 00:16:16.730 --> 00:16:18.529 their first. You have to appeal to everyone. 00:16:18.809 --> 00:16:21.549 Exactly. It heavily discourages extreme negative 00:16:21.549 --> 00:16:24.809 campaigning. Because you can't afford to alienate 00:16:24.809 --> 00:16:27.389 the base of the person you are running against. 00:16:27.629 --> 00:16:29.629 You might really need their votes in round two 00:16:29.629 --> 00:16:31.870 or three. Think about how differently you might 00:16:31.870 --> 00:16:34.190 vote in your own local elections if you knew 00:16:34.190 --> 00:16:36.529 your second choice mattered. just as much as 00:16:36.529 --> 00:16:39.350 your first. It completely frees you up. And empowers 00:16:39.350 --> 00:16:41.570 the voter to support an independent or a third 00:16:41.570 --> 00:16:43.850 party candidate without that traditional fear 00:16:43.850 --> 00:16:46.649 of throwing their vote away. If your independent 00:16:46.649 --> 00:16:49.570 candidate comes in last, your vote simply transfers 00:16:49.570 --> 00:16:52.409 to your preferred major party candidate. It is 00:16:52.409 --> 00:16:54.590 a totally different way of interacting with a 00:16:54.590 --> 00:16:57.230 ballot. It is a paradigm shift. And it brings 00:16:57.230 --> 00:16:59.710 our timeline right up to the present day. According 00:16:59.710 --> 00:17:01.750 to the source, the next scheduled election for 00:17:01.750 --> 00:17:03.629 the class two seat is coming up very soon in 00:17:03.629 --> 00:17:05.450 2026. Right around the corner. And the class 00:17:05.450 --> 00:17:08.910 three seat will be up again in 2028. So what 00:17:08.910 --> 00:17:11.609 does this all mean? It's quite a journey. We 00:17:11.609 --> 00:17:14.130 started with a seemingly dry Wikipedia spreadsheet, 00:17:14.430 --> 00:17:17.329 but we've uncovered a genuinely wild ride of 00:17:17.329 --> 00:17:20.309 political evolution. When you synthesize 60 plus 00:17:20.309 --> 00:17:23.390 years of this data, you see that Alaska's Senate 00:17:23.390 --> 00:17:26.839 election history. is a true paradox a paradox 00:17:26.839 --> 00:17:30.980 yes on one hand it is a state defined by immense 00:17:30.980 --> 00:17:34.920 unbreakable loyalty we saw decades -long incumbents 00:17:34.920 --> 00:17:37.900 who won by sweeping overwhelming majorities year 00:17:37.900 --> 00:17:40.519 after year the titans right they established 00:17:40.519 --> 00:17:43.279 a level of stability most states never see But 00:17:43.279 --> 00:17:45.359 the flip side of that coin is pure electoral 00:17:45.359 --> 00:17:48.740 chaos. Precisely. It is also a state that regularly 00:17:48.740 --> 00:17:51.420 empowers massive third -party votes. It is a 00:17:51.420 --> 00:17:53.500 state that executed one of the only successful 00:17:53.500 --> 00:17:55.720 write -in campaigns in modern Senate history. 00:17:55.900 --> 00:17:58.619 That 2010 run is still mind -blowing. And it's 00:17:58.619 --> 00:18:00.839 a state that frequently elevates independent 00:18:00.839 --> 00:18:03.140 challengers over traditional party nominees. 00:18:03.539 --> 00:18:06.680 And ultimately... It's a state that just recently 00:18:06.680 --> 00:18:09.519 rewrote its fundamental voting mechanics to an 00:18:09.519 --> 00:18:12.480 instant runoff system just to better capture 00:18:12.480 --> 00:18:14.920 the complex nuance of its voters' preferences. 00:18:15.299 --> 00:18:18.319 It's a political ecosystem that simply refuses 00:18:18.319 --> 00:18:21.140 to be put into a neat little box. This raises 00:18:21.140 --> 00:18:23.160 an important question for you to consider. Yeah. 00:18:23.380 --> 00:18:27.579 As we look ahead to 2026 and as instant runoff 00:18:27.579 --> 00:18:29.480 voting becomes more embedded in their culture, 00:18:29.640 --> 00:18:32.890 consider this. Does a system that allows for 00:18:32.890 --> 00:18:35.650 historic write -ins and consistently strong independent 00:18:35.650 --> 00:18:38.750 showings suggest that the rigid two -party system 00:18:38.750 --> 00:18:41.289 is fundamentally incompatible with the modern 00:18:41.289 --> 00:18:43.630 voters' mindset? Oh, that's a fascinating angle. 00:18:43.849 --> 00:18:46.450 And if a state like Alaska can consistently rewrite 00:18:46.450 --> 00:18:49.230 the rulebook on how candidates win, how long 00:18:49.230 --> 00:18:51.049 will it be before the rest of the country's voting 00:18:51.049 --> 00:18:53.750 mechanisms follow suit? That is an amazing thought 00:18:53.750 --> 00:18:56.269 to end on. It really makes you wonder what the 00:18:56.269 --> 00:18:57.650 spreadsheets of the future are going to look 00:18:57.650 --> 00:18:59.990 like and whether the rest of us will be ranking 00:18:59.990 --> 00:19:02.259 our choices. the years to come we all have to 00:19:02.259 --> 00:19:04.460 wait and see thank you so much for joining us 00:19:04.460 --> 00:19:07.200 on this deep dive keep questioning the data keep 00:19:07.200 --> 00:19:09.740 looking for the human stories hidden inside the 00:19:09.740 --> 00:19:12.440 numbers and keep exploring the world around you 00:19:12.440 --> 00:19:14.000 we'll catch you on the next one