WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.639 I want you to picture something for a second. 00:00:02.459 --> 00:00:06.099 You are staring at a massive, sprawling spreadsheet. 00:00:06.559 --> 00:00:08.500 Oh yeah, the kind that just makes your eyes immediately 00:00:08.500 --> 00:00:12.140 glaze over. Exactly. We are talking... Rows and 00:00:12.140 --> 00:00:15.779 columns of dates, names, political parties and 00:00:15.779 --> 00:00:19.280 seemingly endless percentages. Right. On the 00:00:19.280 --> 00:00:22.219 surface, it is just a source list titled List 00:00:22.219 --> 00:00:25.000 of United States Senate Elections in Ohio. Yeah, 00:00:25.039 --> 00:00:26.640 it sounds like the kind of thing you might accidentally 00:00:26.640 --> 00:00:29.000 click on while pummeling down a late night Internet 00:00:29.000 --> 00:00:31.079 rabbit hole. And immediately click away from. 00:00:31.140 --> 00:00:33.439 But if you actually stop, if you sit down and 00:00:33.439 --> 00:00:35.439 read between those neat little lines of data, 00:00:35.579 --> 00:00:38.020 you start to see something incredible take shape. 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:40.939 You really do. You see a century of drama unfold. 00:00:41.200 --> 00:00:44.979 You see epic political rivalries, massive landslide 00:00:44.979 --> 00:00:48.859 victories and razor thin margins that completely 00:00:48.859 --> 00:00:51.399 shifted the direction of an entire state. It's 00:00:51.399 --> 00:00:54.100 basically a historical thriller hidden in a math 00:00:54.100 --> 00:00:56.740 textbook. That is exactly what it is. And today 00:00:56.740 --> 00:00:59.479 our mission on this deep dive is to take this 00:00:59.479 --> 00:01:02.299 seemingly dry wall of text and extract the hidden 00:01:02.299 --> 00:01:05.159 narratives and the surprising voting trends buried 00:01:05.159 --> 00:01:07.400 within all that raw election data. I'm ready. 00:01:07.719 --> 00:01:09.859 We are going to turn those numbers into a living, 00:01:09.900 --> 00:01:12.319 breathing story just for you. OK, let's unpack 00:01:12.319 --> 00:01:14.799 this. So to really understand the story these 00:01:14.799 --> 00:01:16.939 numbers are telling, we have to start by looking 00:01:16.939 --> 00:01:19.340 at the mechanical structure of the Senate itself. 00:01:19.500 --> 00:01:22.519 Right. The ground rules. Exactly. Now, we all 00:01:22.519 --> 00:01:25.519 know each state gets two seats. But the crucial 00:01:25.519 --> 00:01:28.819 detail here is how those seats are staggered. 00:01:29.840 --> 00:01:32.840 Ohio's representation is split into what are 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:35.340 known as a class one seat and a class three seat. 00:01:35.719 --> 00:01:38.859 Because. Senator serves six year terms. Yes. 00:01:39.200 --> 00:01:41.920 And the entire U .S. Senate doesn't turn over 00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:44.719 all at once. Every two years, about one third 00:01:44.719 --> 00:01:46.879 of the chamber is up for reelection. So for the 00:01:46.879 --> 00:01:49.540 voters in Ohio, that means they are only ever 00:01:49.540 --> 00:01:52.140 voting for one of these specific classes at a 00:01:52.140 --> 00:01:54.400 time. Unless a sudden vacancy triggers a special 00:01:54.400 --> 00:01:56.700 election. Yeah. It creates this really fascinating 00:01:56.700 --> 00:01:59.480 rhythm. Yes, a fascinating rhythm. But the rules 00:01:59.480 --> 00:02:01.819 of engagement for this rhythm haven't always 00:02:01.819 --> 00:02:03.680 been the same. And that is the perfect place 00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:05.780 to start because the starting line for the data 00:02:05.780 --> 00:02:08.259 we are looking at isn't when Ohio became a state. 00:02:08.340 --> 00:02:11.099 The real story begins much later. Right. What's 00:02:11.099 --> 00:02:13.659 fascinating here is that the numbers we are examining 00:02:13.659 --> 00:02:16.539 today mark a massive historical pivot. How so? 00:02:16.780 --> 00:02:20.000 Well, before 1913, the everyday public wasn't 00:02:20.000 --> 00:02:22.620 making these decisions. U .S. senators were selected 00:02:22.620 --> 00:02:25.400 by state legislatures. Wow. Yeah, it was a process 00:02:25.400 --> 00:02:27.639 defined by political maneuvering and backroom 00:02:27.639 --> 00:02:30.590 deals among local politicians. But that entire 00:02:30.590 --> 00:02:32.610 system was dismantled with the passage of the 00:02:32.610 --> 00:02:35.090 17th Amendment. Which mandated that senators 00:02:35.090 --> 00:02:37.669 be elected directly by the voters of each state. 00:02:37.870 --> 00:02:40.409 Exactly. So the data we are going to explore 00:02:40.409 --> 00:02:44.129 strictly focuses on the era that followed that 00:02:44.129 --> 00:02:46.979 amendment, the era of direct. popular elections. 00:02:47.219 --> 00:02:49.680 We are looking at the unvarnished choices made 00:02:49.680 --> 00:02:52.719 by the voting public of Ohio from 1914 all the 00:02:52.719 --> 00:02:55.879 way to 2024. Precisely. Let's jump straight into 00:02:55.879 --> 00:02:57.860 the class three seat because that is where this 00:02:57.860 --> 00:03:00.460 new era of direct voting kicks off. The 1914 00:03:00.460 --> 00:03:03.639 race. Right. The very first direct election for 00:03:03.639 --> 00:03:07.060 Ohio happens in 1914 for this exact seat. You 00:03:07.060 --> 00:03:09.319 can almost imagine the electorate stepping up 00:03:09.319 --> 00:03:11.500 to the ballot box, wielding this new constitutional 00:03:11.500 --> 00:03:13.620 power for the very first time. It must have been 00:03:13.620 --> 00:03:16.090 quite a moment. And the winner of that inaugural 00:03:16.090 --> 00:03:19.270 direct race is a Republican named Warren G. Harding. 00:03:19.810 --> 00:03:22.949 He takes the seat, but doesn't exactly run away 00:03:22.949 --> 00:03:25.370 with it. No, it was pretty close. He pulls in 00:03:25.370 --> 00:03:28.789 just under 50 percent of the vote, 49 .16 percent 00:03:28.789 --> 00:03:31.210 to be exact, defeating his Democratic opponent, 00:03:31.409 --> 00:03:34.310 Timothy Sylvester Hogan. It is a solid win, but 00:03:34.310 --> 00:03:36.909 it is competitive. Very. However, as you move 00:03:36.909 --> 00:03:39.270 forward in time, that competitiveness in the 00:03:39.270 --> 00:03:42.340 class three seat starts to vanish. we start seeing 00:03:42.340 --> 00:03:44.719 what look like absolute political dynasties. 00:03:44.740 --> 00:03:47.560 Oh, absolutely. The mid -20th century data for 00:03:47.560 --> 00:03:49.919 Class III is completely dominated by one name, 00:03:50.199 --> 00:03:53.780 Robert A. Taft. Ah, yes. If you track the Republican 00:03:53.780 --> 00:03:56.539 column during this era, Taft establishes a level 00:03:56.539 --> 00:03:58.419 of control over this seat that lasts for more 00:03:58.419 --> 00:04:00.740 than a decade. But it isn't a straight line of 00:04:00.740 --> 00:04:03.159 easy victories. Well, he wins his first term 00:04:03.159 --> 00:04:07.020 in 1938 with a fairly comfortable 53 .62 % of 00:04:07.020 --> 00:04:10.349 the vote. But six years later, in 1944, the environment 00:04:10.349 --> 00:04:12.830 clearly changes. What happens? Taft barely scrapes 00:04:12.830 --> 00:04:15.210 by. He successfully defends the seat with 50 00:04:15.210 --> 00:04:18.129 .30 percent against Democrat William G. Pickerel, 00:04:18.209 --> 00:04:21.470 who took 49 .70 percent. Let's just pause on 00:04:21.470 --> 00:04:24.250 that for a second. Winning by a fraction of a 00:04:24.250 --> 00:04:26.689 single percentage point across an entire state. 00:04:27.120 --> 00:04:29.540 is surviving a near -death political experience. 00:04:29.899 --> 00:04:32.459 It really is. That has to change a candidate's 00:04:32.459 --> 00:04:34.560 entire approach to their next term. It certainly 00:04:34.560 --> 00:04:37.139 appears to have solidified his base, because 00:04:37.139 --> 00:04:40.480 when Taft returns for a third time in 1950, he 00:04:40.480 --> 00:04:43.540 doesn't just win. He completely turns the tide. 00:04:43.680 --> 00:04:46.920 He bounces back. Big time. He expands his margin 00:04:46.920 --> 00:04:52.449 to an incredibly secure 57 .54%. In an electoral 00:04:52.449 --> 00:04:55.009 system where the pendulum is constantly swinging 00:04:55.009 --> 00:04:57.610 back and forth between parties, winning three 00:04:57.610 --> 00:05:00.329 consecutive six -year terms, especially after 00:05:00.329 --> 00:05:02.829 nearly losing the second one, demonstrates a 00:05:02.829 --> 00:05:05.269 remarkably stable and evolving connection with 00:05:05.269 --> 00:05:08.089 the electorate. That is an impressive run. But 00:05:08.089 --> 00:05:10.269 if we are talking about stable connections with 00:05:10.269 --> 00:05:12.529 the electorate, we have to talk about the absolute 00:05:12.529 --> 00:05:14.889 record breaker in this data. Oh, I know where 00:05:14.889 --> 00:05:16.230 you're going with this. I was looking at the 00:05:16.230 --> 00:05:18.589 Democratic side of the class three ledger later 00:05:18.589 --> 00:05:20.649 in the century, and the numbers attached to John 00:05:20.649 --> 00:05:23.389 Glenn are genuinely staggering. They are massive. 00:05:23.470 --> 00:05:25.470 I mean, we just talked about Taft surviving on 00:05:25.470 --> 00:05:27.709 a fraction of a percent. John Glenn is operating 00:05:27.709 --> 00:05:29.810 in a completely different universe. He really 00:05:29.810 --> 00:05:33.379 is. He wins this seat in 1974 with nearly 65 00:05:33.379 --> 00:05:37.759 % of the vote, 64 .62 % to be precise. And he 00:05:37.759 --> 00:05:40.319 doesn't stop there. By the 1980 election, his 00:05:40.319 --> 00:05:45.620 vote share peaks at almost 69%, 68 .80%. It's 00:05:45.620 --> 00:05:47.939 hard to even conceptualize margins that wide 00:05:47.939 --> 00:05:50.000 in modern politics. Just looking at the macro 00:05:50.000 --> 00:05:52.199 level, that is basically seven out of every 10 00:05:52.199 --> 00:05:54.620 voters choosing one person. To put that 1980 00:05:54.620 --> 00:05:56.699 peak into perspective using the raw numbers, 00:05:57.079 --> 00:06:02.470 we're talking about... 2 ,770 ,786 individual 00:06:02.470 --> 00:06:05.829 votes for one candidate. Wow. Over 2 .7 million 00:06:05.829 --> 00:06:08.310 votes. It is a massive footprint. And you see 00:06:08.310 --> 00:06:11.430 that dominance continue into 1986, where he holds 00:06:11.430 --> 00:06:14.829 the seat again with 62 .45%. Yeah. It illustrates 00:06:14.829 --> 00:06:17.029 how a single candidate can sometimes completely 00:06:17.029 --> 00:06:20.220 transcend. the usual partisan tug of war. Yeah, 00:06:20.379 --> 00:06:22.860 they stop being just a representative of a party 00:06:22.860 --> 00:06:24.560 and become a fixture of the state's identity. 00:06:24.819 --> 00:06:27.100 Exactly. But gravity eventually catches up to 00:06:27.100 --> 00:06:29.060 everyone, doesn't it? Even a winning streak that 00:06:29.060 --> 00:06:32.819 massive has an expiration date. It does. By 1992, 00:06:33.259 --> 00:06:36.000 Glenn's era of overwhelming landslides cools 00:06:36.000 --> 00:06:38.540 off significantly. He still wins, though. He 00:06:38.540 --> 00:06:40.800 still wins the election, but the margin shrinks 00:06:40.800 --> 00:06:44.420 dramatically. He secures 50 .88 percent of the 00:06:44.420 --> 00:06:46.680 vote against a Republican challenger named Mike 00:06:46.680 --> 00:06:50.620 DeWine, who pulls in 42 .22 percent. Quite a 00:06:50.620 --> 00:06:53.040 drop from 68 percent. It is a clear mathematical 00:06:53.040 --> 00:06:55.579 signal that the electorate is beginning to shift 00:06:55.579 --> 00:06:58.060 its mood and that the untouchable era of the 00:06:58.060 --> 00:07:01.639 1970s and 80s is coming to a close. That 1992 00:07:01.639 --> 00:07:04.420 race is such a pivotal moment. And we are absolutely 00:07:04.420 --> 00:07:06.480 going to come back to Mike DeWine because his 00:07:06.480 --> 00:07:09.120 trajectory over the next few years is wild. It 00:07:09.120 --> 00:07:11.519 really is. But just to follow. Follow the thread 00:07:11.519 --> 00:07:13.759 of this class three seat into the modern era. 00:07:13.920 --> 00:07:16.720 The data shows Republicans taking very firm control. 00:07:16.899 --> 00:07:20.120 Yes. Starting in the early 2000s. In 2004, Republican 00:07:20.120 --> 00:07:22.939 George Voinovich hits a massive peak of his own. 00:07:23.040 --> 00:07:25.980 He takes the seat with nearly 64 percent of the 00:07:25.980 --> 00:07:28.759 vote, 63 .85 percent. Because the population 00:07:28.759 --> 00:07:31.420 has grown so much by then, that percentage translates 00:07:31.420 --> 00:07:34.480 to nearly 3 .5 million individual votes. Which 00:07:34.480 --> 00:07:36.220 is just a logistical marvel just to get that 00:07:36.220 --> 00:07:38.680 many people to agree on something. Right. Then 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:40.579 we see Rob Portman win consecutive. elections 00:07:40.579 --> 00:07:44.040 in 2010 and 2016 with very comfortable margins 00:07:44.040 --> 00:07:46.860 around 57 and 58 percent. Keeping that stability 00:07:46.860 --> 00:07:49.779 going. Exactly. Which brings us to the most recent 00:07:49.779 --> 00:07:52.740 data point for class three. The 2022 election, 00:07:53.000 --> 00:07:55.579 where Republican J .D. Vance defeats Democrat 00:07:55.579 --> 00:08:01.519 Tim Ryan, 53 .04 % to 46 .92%. When you lay all 00:08:01.519 --> 00:08:04.000 that out, it becomes a perfect encapsulation 00:08:04.000 --> 00:08:06.300 of how the class three seat behaves over time. 00:08:06.519 --> 00:08:09.579 You have these long, unbroken stretches of stability. 00:08:09.839 --> 00:08:12.240 Taft, Glenn, Portman. Exactly. You have Taft 00:08:12.240 --> 00:08:14.500 in the mid -century, Glenn in the late 20th century, 00:08:14.579 --> 00:08:17.699 and Portman in the 2010s. The voters in Ohio. 00:08:18.379 --> 00:08:20.579 seem to find a candidate they like in this specific 00:08:20.579 --> 00:08:22.959 seat and keep them there for a while, regardless 00:08:22.959 --> 00:08:24.819 of whether there is a D or an R next to their 00:08:24.819 --> 00:08:26.360 name. Here's where it gets really interesting 00:08:26.360 --> 00:08:28.860 because the class one seat is an entirely different 00:08:28.860 --> 00:08:31.399 beast. Oh, totally. If class three is about stability, 00:08:31.660 --> 00:08:33.799 long legacies and voters getting comfortable, 00:08:34.100 --> 00:08:36.399 class one is a game of high stakes political 00:08:36.399 --> 00:08:38.519 musical chairs. That is the best way to describe 00:08:38.519 --> 00:08:41.179 it. The data for the seat is incredibly volatile. 00:08:41.539 --> 00:08:44.340 It is characterized by intense rivalries, constantly 00:08:44.340 --> 00:08:46.519 changing hands, and an electorate that seems 00:08:46.519 --> 00:08:49.080 perfectly willing to fire their senator and hire 00:08:49.080 --> 00:08:50.980 someone else on a whim. The ultimate example 00:08:50.980 --> 00:08:53.980 of that volatility is the saga between Republican 00:08:53.980 --> 00:08:56.960 Robert Taft Jr. and Democrat Howard Metzenbaum 00:08:56.960 --> 00:09:00.360 in the 1970s. Oh, this one is fascinating. This 00:09:00.360 --> 00:09:02.480 is where the raw data tells an incredible story 00:09:02.480 --> 00:09:04.720 of political persistence and the sheer agony 00:09:04.720 --> 00:09:07.840 of close elections. In the 1970 election for 00:09:07.840 --> 00:09:10.860 Class 1, Robert Taft Jr. defeats Howard Metzenbaum. 00:09:11.000 --> 00:09:14.240 But it's close. Very close. Taft Jr. gets 49 00:09:14.240 --> 00:09:19.419 .68 % and Metzenbaum gets 47 .45%. Out of over 00:09:19.419 --> 00:09:21.940 3 million total votes cast across the state, 00:09:22.120 --> 00:09:24.379 they are separated by roughly 70 ,000 votes. 00:09:24.460 --> 00:09:26.299 Let's do the math on that for a second. Ohio 00:09:26.299 --> 00:09:29.519 has 88 counties. A 78 ,000 vote difference means 00:09:29.519 --> 00:09:31.360 you are looking at fewer than 1 ,000 votes per 00:09:31.360 --> 00:09:33.139 county, making the difference between becoming 00:09:33.139 --> 00:09:35.500 a U .S. senator and going home empty -handed. 00:09:35.620 --> 00:09:38.590 That's agonizing. For a candidate. Losing a race 00:09:38.590 --> 00:09:40.950 that tight has to be absolutely crushing. You 00:09:40.950 --> 00:09:43.230 spend months on the road, millions of dollars, 00:09:43.389 --> 00:09:46.289 and you miss the mark by a rounding error. You 00:09:46.289 --> 00:09:48.210 would think Metzenbaum might just walk away from 00:09:48.210 --> 00:09:50.669 politics entirely after coming that agonizingly 00:09:50.669 --> 00:09:53.549 close. Many people would, but he doesn't. He 00:09:53.549 --> 00:09:56.190 comes right back. Six years go by, the calendar 00:09:56.190 --> 00:09:59.529 rolls over to 1976, and the exact same matchup 00:09:59.529 --> 00:10:02.289 appears on the ballot. Howard Metzenbaum returns 00:10:02.289 --> 00:10:05.149 to challenge Robert Taft Jr. for the exact same 00:10:05.149 --> 00:10:07.840 class one seat. And this time... The electorate 00:10:07.840 --> 00:10:10.480 flips. They do. Metzenbaum unseats the incumbent, 00:10:10.740 --> 00:10:15.419 winning 49 .51 % to Taft Jr.'s 46 .52%. Wow. 00:10:15.620 --> 00:10:18.179 It is a phenomenal example of how static numbers 00:10:18.179 --> 00:10:20.879 on a page actually represent the shifting fluid 00:10:20.879 --> 00:10:23.639 opinions of millions of human beings over a six 00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:25.960 -year period. And Metzenbaum doesn't just win 00:10:25.960 --> 00:10:28.259 once. He goes on to hold that seat with solid 00:10:28.259 --> 00:10:32.440 margins in 1982 and 1988, proving that sometimes 00:10:32.440 --> 00:10:35.620 absolute stubborn persistence is the most important 00:10:35.620 --> 00:10:37.779 metric in politics. And speaking of persistence 00:10:37.779 --> 00:10:40.120 and strategy, we have to talk about Mike DeWine. 00:10:40.259 --> 00:10:42.480 This is my favorite strategic maneuver in the 00:10:42.480 --> 00:10:44.539 entire historical record. It's pretty brilliant. 00:10:44.659 --> 00:10:47.220 Let's trace his name through the years. We already 00:10:47.220 --> 00:10:50.259 mentioned that in 1992, Mike DeWine runs as a 00:10:50.259 --> 00:10:52.820 Republican for the class three seat and loses 00:10:52.820 --> 00:10:55.470 to the juggernaut. that is John Glenn. Right. 00:10:55.549 --> 00:10:57.629 But DeWine doesn't disappear into the background. 00:10:57.929 --> 00:11:02.029 Instead, he waits two years. In 1994, he pivots. 00:11:02.070 --> 00:11:04.629 He jumps over to run for the volatile class one 00:11:04.629 --> 00:11:07.169 seat instead. And it works. It works perfectly. 00:11:07.690 --> 00:11:12.149 He wins the class one state with 53 .44 % of 00:11:12.149 --> 00:11:14.950 the vote against Democrat Joel Hyatt. He then 00:11:14.950 --> 00:11:17.350 defends it successfully in the year 2000, pulling 00:11:17.350 --> 00:11:21.529 in 59 .92%. It is such a calculated move. He 00:11:21.529 --> 00:11:24.250 tested the waters in one class, found it blocked 00:11:24.250 --> 00:11:26.409 by a legacy incumbent, and immediately found 00:11:26.409 --> 00:11:28.710 an opening in the other class. It really highlights 00:11:28.710 --> 00:11:30.909 the strategic nature of these staggered terms. 00:11:31.570 --> 00:11:33.730 Candidates aren't just running against an opponent. 00:11:34.029 --> 00:11:35.990 They're running against the specific history 00:11:35.990 --> 00:11:38.610 and the specific electorate of that class. Yeah, 00:11:38.750 --> 00:11:40.570 that makes a lot of sense. But just as we saw 00:11:40.570 --> 00:11:43.389 with Mesenbaum and Taft Jr., the class one seat 00:11:43.389 --> 00:11:46.149 rarely offers permanent safety. The modern era 00:11:46.149 --> 00:11:48.450 data for class one shows the pendulum swinging 00:11:48.450 --> 00:11:51.269 right back. The music starts playing again. Exactly. 00:11:51.929 --> 00:11:55.049 In 2006, the electorate shifts its weight again. 00:11:55.399 --> 00:11:58.279 Democrat Sherrod Brown challenges Mike DeWine 00:11:58.279 --> 00:12:02.539 and unseats the incumbent, winning 56 .16 % of 00:12:02.539 --> 00:12:05.200 the vote. The voters decide it is time for a 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:07.799 change, and the musical chairs continue. Brown 00:12:07.799 --> 00:12:09.879 manages to hold on to that volatile seat for 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:12.039 quite a while, though. The data shows him successfully 00:12:12.039 --> 00:12:15.940 defending it in 2012 with just under 51%, and 00:12:15.940 --> 00:12:18.179 again in 2018 with a slightly more comfortable 00:12:18.179 --> 00:12:21.399 53 .40%. He definitely built some stability there. 00:12:21.679 --> 00:12:23.740 But of course, the music eventually stops again. 00:12:23.940 --> 00:12:26.059 The most recent entry we have for the Class 1 00:12:26.059 --> 00:12:29.220 election is 2024, and we see yet another incumbent 00:12:29.220 --> 00:12:31.720 unseated. The volatility returns. Republican 00:12:31.720 --> 00:12:34.299 Bernie Moreno defeats Sherrod Brown, taking 50 00:12:34.299 --> 00:12:38.340 .09 % of the vote to Brown's 46 .47%. Looking 00:12:38.340 --> 00:12:41.159 purely at the math, impartially, it is just another 00:12:41.159 --> 00:12:43.559 massive shift in a seat that fundamentally refuses 00:12:43.559 --> 00:12:45.980 to sit still. It really does refuse to sit still. 00:12:46.100 --> 00:12:48.240 What blows my mind is the sheer volume of participation 00:12:48.240 --> 00:12:51.340 now. Out of more than 5 .5 million... votes cast 00:12:51.340 --> 00:12:54.600 in that 2024 race, Marino wins by a margin of 00:12:54.600 --> 00:12:57.519 roughly 200 ,000 votes. If we connect this to 00:12:57.519 --> 00:12:59.899 the bigger picture, it becomes clear that these 00:12:59.899 --> 00:13:02.860 races are frequently decided by incredibly narrow 00:13:02.860 --> 00:13:06.480 margins. Yeah. Whether we are looking at 3 million 00:13:06.480 --> 00:13:10.460 votes in the 1970s or 5 .5 million votes today. 00:13:11.480 --> 00:13:13.960 The gap between the two major parties often hovers 00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:16.299 around just a few percentage points. So every 00:13:16.299 --> 00:13:18.720 single vote really does matter. Every single 00:13:18.720 --> 00:13:20.820 vote becomes critical. Yeah. And that brings 00:13:20.820 --> 00:13:23.980 us to one of the most surprising structural forces 00:13:23.980 --> 00:13:27.379 hidden in this data. The wildcard third party 00:13:27.379 --> 00:13:29.419 candidates. This is the part of the numbers that 00:13:29.419 --> 00:13:31.340 completely caught me off guard. When you think 00:13:31.340 --> 00:13:33.600 about U .S. Senate races, you generally expect 00:13:33.600 --> 00:13:36.080 to see the two main parties dominating the board. 00:13:36.200 --> 00:13:38.019 Right. Usually feels like a two person race. 00:13:38.179 --> 00:13:40.200 But there are these highly specific, completely 00:13:40.200 --> 00:13:42.559 surprising third party data points that just 00:13:42.559 --> 00:13:45.039 pop out and demand your attention. Let's go all 00:13:45.039 --> 00:13:46.980 the way back to that very first direct election 00:13:46.980 --> 00:13:49.700 we talked about. 1914. 1914 for the class three 00:13:49.700 --> 00:13:52.860 seat. The Republican Harding got about 49 percent 00:13:52.860 --> 00:13:55.860 and the Democrat Hogan got about 39 percent. 00:13:56.120 --> 00:13:58.639 But sitting right there in the margins is a progressive 00:13:58.639 --> 00:14:02.200 candidate named Arthur. And he pulls some real 00:14:02.200 --> 00:14:11.480 numbers. who looked at a brand new democratic 00:14:11.480 --> 00:14:14.320 process, looked at the two major parties and 00:14:14.320 --> 00:14:16.779 said, no, I'm going with this third option. That 00:14:16.779 --> 00:14:18.940 trend of significant third party vote shares 00:14:18.940 --> 00:14:21.080 doesn't just stay in the early 20th century. 00:14:21.220 --> 00:14:23.820 It continues to appear in highly consequential 00:14:23.820 --> 00:14:26.299 modern races. Let's see some examples. Let's 00:14:26.299 --> 00:14:28.960 look back at that 1992 class three race where 00:14:28.960 --> 00:14:31.759 John Glenn's massive margins finally shrank. 00:14:31.820 --> 00:14:35.059 He won with 50 .88 percent to Mike DeWine's 42 00:14:35.059 --> 00:14:38.100 .22 percent. OK. But look further across that 00:14:38.100 --> 00:14:40.570 exact same row of data. A candidate named Marka 00:14:40.570 --> 00:14:42.789 Gravatt, running under the Workers' World Party, 00:14:42.970 --> 00:14:46.909 secured an astonishing 6 .89 % of the vote. That 00:14:46.909 --> 00:14:49.049 is a big chunk. In raw numbers, that is over 00:14:49.049 --> 00:14:52.750 331 ,000 votes. That is wild. The margin of victory 00:14:52.750 --> 00:14:54.669 between the Democrat and the Republican in that 00:14:54.669 --> 00:14:58.490 specific election was about 415 ,000 votes. So 00:14:58.490 --> 00:15:01.149 a third -party candidate pulling over 330 ,000 00:15:01.149 --> 00:15:03.470 votes isn't just a fun piece of trivia, it is 00:15:03.470 --> 00:15:05.850 a massive factor. Absolutely. It represents a 00:15:05.850 --> 00:15:08.649 huge block of the electorate making a very dis 00:15:08.649 --> 00:15:10.750 - distinct choice that alters the entire math 00:15:10.750 --> 00:15:13.450 of the race. Precisely. And we see it happen 00:15:13.450 --> 00:15:16.590 again just two years later. In the 1994 class 00:15:16.590 --> 00:15:18.830 one race, the one where Mike DeWine successfully 00:15:18.830 --> 00:15:23.409 pivots and wins his seat, DeWine gets 53 .44 00:15:23.409 --> 00:15:27.549 percent and the Democrat gets 39 .23 percent. 00:15:27.710 --> 00:15:29.830 And who is the third party there? An independent 00:15:29.830 --> 00:15:33.809 candidate named Joe Slovenak pulls in 7 .33 percent 00:15:33.809 --> 00:15:37.490 of the vote. That is over 252 ,000 people casting 00:15:37.490 --> 00:15:39.629 their ballot for an independent. That is incredible. 00:15:40.059 --> 00:15:42.340 Why it matters is that in a state as large as 00:15:42.340 --> 00:15:45.259 Ohio, these aren't just statistical anomalies 00:15:45.259 --> 00:15:47.460 or rounding errors. These third party margins 00:15:47.460 --> 00:15:50.279 represent hundreds of thousands of voters. Right. 00:15:50.480 --> 00:15:53.100 If a race is frequently decided by one or two 00:15:53.100 --> 00:15:55.399 percentage points, a candidate who can capture 00:15:55.399 --> 00:15:57.539 seven percent of the electorate is holding the 00:15:57.539 --> 00:15:59.620 keys to the kingdom. They absolutely are. They 00:15:59.620 --> 00:16:01.720 have the mathematical power to act as spoilers. 00:16:01.980 --> 00:16:04.240 They force the major candidates to change their 00:16:04.240 --> 00:16:06.600 platforms, adapt their messaging and sometimes 00:16:06.600 --> 00:16:08.779 radically alter the outcome of the election just 00:16:08.779 --> 00:16:10.700 by having their. name on the ballot. It proves 00:16:10.700 --> 00:16:12.899 that the binary narrative of simply Democrat 00:16:12.899 --> 00:16:16.240 versus Republican often misses the deeper complexities 00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:17.879 of what the voters were actually trying to say. 00:16:17.980 --> 00:16:20.820 Those hundreds of thousands of independent and 00:16:20.820 --> 00:16:24.980 third party votes are a loud, clear signal that 00:16:24.980 --> 00:16:27.179 a significant portion of the population is looking 00:16:27.179 --> 00:16:29.519 for something outside the traditional columns. 00:16:30.019 --> 00:16:33.470 So what does this all mean? We started out looking 00:16:33.470 --> 00:16:36.350 at what appeared to be a dry, boring list, just 00:16:36.350 --> 00:16:39.409 a sprawling grid of years, names, and percentages. 00:16:39.710 --> 00:16:41.850 A very long grid. But when you really take the 00:16:41.850 --> 00:16:44.389 time to read it, you realize you aren't just 00:16:44.389 --> 00:16:47.440 looking at math. You are looking at the living, 00:16:47.519 --> 00:16:50.059 breathing pulse of a state's electorate over 00:16:50.059 --> 00:16:52.240 more than a century. That's beautifully put. 00:16:52.440 --> 00:16:54.740 You can actually trace the pendulum swings of 00:16:54.740 --> 00:16:57.659 public opinion. You can feel the incredible patience 00:16:57.659 --> 00:17:00.080 and persistence of candidates who lose by a hair, 00:17:00.279 --> 00:17:03.139 wait six grueling years, and run again to finally 00:17:03.139 --> 00:17:06.140 claim victory. Like Metzenbaum. Exactly. You 00:17:06.140 --> 00:17:09.000 see the massive multi -million vote landslides 00:17:09.000 --> 00:17:11.599 that define eras, and you see the razor -thin 00:17:11.599 --> 00:17:14.299 margins that change the course of history. The 00:17:14.299 --> 00:17:16.000 numbers tell the story of a public constantly 00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:18.380 evaluating, checking, and rechecking the people 00:17:18.380 --> 00:17:20.660 they send to represent them. It is a remarkable 00:17:20.660 --> 00:17:23.180 testament to the power of the voter. And this 00:17:23.180 --> 00:17:25.559 raises an important question, one that I think 00:17:25.559 --> 00:17:28.519 completely reframes everything we have discussed 00:17:28.519 --> 00:17:31.279 today. What's that? We noted at the very beginning 00:17:31.279 --> 00:17:35.039 that this entire era of data only exists because 00:17:35.039 --> 00:17:38.619 of the 17th Amendment passing in 1913. That amendment 00:17:38.619 --> 00:17:42.519 took the power of selecting senators away from 00:17:42.519 --> 00:17:44.839 state legislators and gave it directly to the 00:17:44.839 --> 00:17:47.539 public. Right. I want you to imagine for a moment 00:17:47.539 --> 00:17:51.240 a world where that amendment never passed. What 00:17:51.240 --> 00:17:53.319 if state legislatures were still handpicking 00:17:53.319 --> 00:17:56.079 these senators in backroom deals rather than 00:17:56.079 --> 00:17:58.319 the general public voting at the ballot box? 00:17:58.440 --> 00:18:01.279 Oh, wow. How many of these razor -thin popular 00:18:01.279 --> 00:18:04.180 vote victories, how many of these dramatic shifts, 00:18:04.440 --> 00:18:07.099 unseatings, and intense rivalries would have 00:18:07.099 --> 00:18:09.380 been completely erased by legislative maneuvering? 00:18:09.400 --> 00:18:11.460 Most of them, probably. Would the record -breaking 00:18:11.460 --> 00:18:13.920 mandates of candidates pulling in nearly 3 million 00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:16.319 individual votes have even mattered if a few 00:18:16.319 --> 00:18:18.400 dozen local politicians were the only ones who 00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:20.759 had a say? That really changes how you look at 00:18:20.759 --> 00:18:23.619 the data. The trajectory of these seats, and 00:18:23.619 --> 00:18:25.940 by extension the trajectory of the entire country, 00:18:26.099 --> 00:18:28.160 would have been fundamentally different. That 00:18:28.160 --> 00:18:30.940 is wild to think about. The very existence of 00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:32.880 this spreadsheet and every single percentage 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:35.440 point we talked about today is a monument to 00:18:35.440 --> 00:18:37.960 the direct voice of the people. It truly is. 00:18:38.359 --> 00:18:40.299 Thank you so much for joining us on this deep 00:18:40.299 --> 00:18:42.460 dive. The next time you find yourself staring 00:18:42.460 --> 00:18:45.480 at a supposedly dry wall of data, don't just 00:18:45.480 --> 00:18:48.700 skim past it. Take a closer look. Keep exploring 00:18:48.700 --> 00:18:51.000 the numbers behind the history, because there 00:18:51.000 --> 00:18:53.920 is always an incredible story waiting to be told.