WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.060 Welcome to this deep dive. I am incredibly glad 00:00:03.060 --> 00:00:04.960 you decided to join us today. Yeah, it's great 00:00:04.960 --> 00:00:07.200 to be here. Have you ever looked at a spreadsheet, 00:00:07.459 --> 00:00:10.580 like just a simple dry list of names and dates? 00:00:10.820 --> 00:00:12.640 Right, something that looks totally boring on 00:00:12.640 --> 00:00:15.339 the surface. Exactly. Have you ever looked at 00:00:15.339 --> 00:00:17.100 something like that and realized you were actually 00:00:17.100 --> 00:00:20.300 staring at this sweeping, dramatic, historical 00:00:20.300 --> 00:00:23.019 epic? Because that is exactly the experience 00:00:23.019 --> 00:00:25.859 we had when preparing for today. It really was. 00:00:25.960 --> 00:00:28.199 We are looking at a single Wikipedia article 00:00:28.199 --> 00:00:31.670 today. And it's titled A List of United States 00:00:31.670 --> 00:00:34.090 Senate Elections in California. Which I know 00:00:34.090 --> 00:00:36.189 sounds a bit dry. Yeah, you might be wondering 00:00:36.189 --> 00:00:38.689 why we're devoting an entire deep dive to a list 00:00:38.689 --> 00:00:41.710 of elections. But stick with us here. Please 00:00:41.710 --> 00:00:44.090 do. Because we're going to trace the deeply fascinating 00:00:44.090 --> 00:00:47.109 history of how California has chosen its U .S. 00:00:47.149 --> 00:00:49.439 senators over the last century. We're looking 00:00:49.439 --> 00:00:52.799 way beyond the raw data. Right. To uncover the 00:00:52.799 --> 00:00:55.200 unpredictable quirks of the ballot, the profound 00:00:55.200 --> 00:00:58.380 shifts in voting rules, and really the massive 00:00:58.380 --> 00:01:01.420 leaps that completely rewrote the political map 00:01:01.420 --> 00:01:03.560 of the West Coast. It's a brilliant shortcut 00:01:03.560 --> 00:01:05.780 to understanding the evolution of one of the 00:01:05.780 --> 00:01:08.040 largest states in the Union. Purely through the 00:01:08.040 --> 00:01:10.340 lens of who they put on the ballot. And to help 00:01:10.340 --> 00:01:12.620 make sense of all this historical data, I am 00:01:12.620 --> 00:01:15.579 joined, as always, by our resident expert. Always 00:01:15.579 --> 00:01:18.120 a pleasure. And what's fascinating here is that 00:01:18.120 --> 00:01:20.579 the foundation of all this data comes straight 00:01:20.579 --> 00:01:23.140 from the structural design of the U .S. Constitution. 00:01:23.560 --> 00:01:26.379 Right. Setting the baseline. Exactly. The Constitution 00:01:26.379 --> 00:01:29.659 allots every single state exactly two senators, 00:01:29.859 --> 00:01:32.140 regardless of the state's population size. and 00:01:32.140 --> 00:01:36.459 they serve staggered six -year terms. Staggered, 00:01:36.459 --> 00:01:38.219 meaning they aren't elected at the same time. 00:01:38.340 --> 00:01:40.379 Correct. To keep those elections balanced across 00:01:40.379 --> 00:01:42.640 the entire country, the Senate is divided into 00:01:42.640 --> 00:01:46.959 three distinct classes. Okay. So upon California's 00:01:46.959 --> 00:01:49.719 admission to the union back in 1850, the state 00:01:49.719 --> 00:01:52.239 was assigned a class one seat and a class three 00:01:52.239 --> 00:01:54.719 seat. Which means voters are never completely 00:01:54.719 --> 00:01:56.920 replacing their entire Senate representation 00:01:56.920 --> 00:01:59.400 all at once. Right. There is always an element 00:01:59.400 --> 00:02:01.700 of continuity. But before we get into the popular 00:02:01.700 --> 00:02:04.260 vote, we have to address a crucial historical 00:02:04.260 --> 00:02:07.040 pivot in the text right up front. A huge pivot. 00:02:07.260 --> 00:02:09.819 Because if you go all the way back to 1850, you, 00:02:10.039 --> 00:02:13.319 the average California resident, you didn't actually 00:02:13.319 --> 00:02:15.960 have a direct say in who went to the Senate. 00:02:16.280 --> 00:02:18.639 That is a vital piece of context. Originally, 00:02:19.000 --> 00:02:21.479 U .S. senators were chosen directly by the state 00:02:21.479 --> 00:02:23.580 legislature. Just politicians picking politicians? 00:02:24.039 --> 00:02:26.300 Exactly. It was a system that often involved 00:02:26.300 --> 00:02:29.580 backroom deals and intense localized lobbying. 00:02:30.159 --> 00:02:32.319 It was far removed from the general public. It 00:02:32.319 --> 00:02:34.580 wasn't until the ratification of the 17th Amendment 00:02:34.580 --> 00:02:38.599 in 1913 that senators were elected directly by 00:02:38.599 --> 00:02:41.960 the popular vote. Yes. So the data we are really 00:02:41.960 --> 00:02:44.560 sinking our teeth into today starts right after 00:02:44.560 --> 00:02:47.000 that amendment takes effect. We're looking at 00:02:47.000 --> 00:02:49.379 what happened in California once the average 00:02:49.379 --> 00:02:51.919 citizens actually got the reins. Once the voters 00:02:51.919 --> 00:02:54.039 had a say. OK, let's unpack this, because once 00:02:54.039 --> 00:02:56.800 the voters get control, the early data from the 00:02:56.800 --> 00:03:00.340 1910s through the 1930s is incredibly fractured. 00:03:00.360 --> 00:03:02.840 Oh, totally. If you think today's political landscape 00:03:02.840 --> 00:03:05.900 is chaotic, the sheer variety of political parties 00:03:05.900 --> 00:03:08.180 that used to pull substantial numbers reveals 00:03:08.180 --> 00:03:10.879 a truly experimental electorate. It was an era 00:03:10.879 --> 00:03:13.939 of intense political multipolarity. It absolutely 00:03:13.939 --> 00:03:16.800 was. When you look at the fractions and the vote 00:03:16.800 --> 00:03:19.479 distribution from those early popular vote elections. 00:03:20.439 --> 00:03:23.479 It's far from a simple binary choice between 00:03:23.479 --> 00:03:27.139 two major establishment parties. Right. It's 00:03:27.139 --> 00:03:29.340 not just Republican versus Democrat. Not at all. 00:03:29.460 --> 00:03:31.939 The data reflects a state going through rapid 00:03:31.939 --> 00:03:35.699 growing pains, deeply divided on monumental social 00:03:35.699 --> 00:03:39.099 issues. I want to look at the 1914 Class 3 election 00:03:39.099 --> 00:03:42.120 as our first prime example of this. That's a 00:03:42.120 --> 00:03:44.020 great one to start with. You have the Democrat, 00:03:44.240 --> 00:03:47.159 James D. Phelan, winning with just under a third 00:03:47.159 --> 00:03:50.620 of the total vote. Barely 30%. Right. But look 00:03:50.620 --> 00:03:53.259 at the rest of the field. He is closely trailed 00:03:53.259 --> 00:03:56.180 by Francis J. Honey, running for the Progressive 00:03:56.180 --> 00:03:58.639 Party. Who captured over a quarter of the electorate. 00:03:58.740 --> 00:04:00.719 And then you have Ernest Nutterman running as 00:04:00.719 --> 00:04:02.620 a socialist. And he didn't just get a handful 00:04:02.620 --> 00:04:05.159 of protest votes. No, he really didn't. He walked 00:04:05.159 --> 00:04:07.699 away with over 6 % of the total vote, representing 00:04:07.699 --> 00:04:10.460 tens of thousands of individual voters. And that 00:04:10.460 --> 00:04:12.699 socialist presence was not a one -off anomaly 00:04:12.699 --> 00:04:15.300 on the ballot either. No. If you fast forward 00:04:15.300 --> 00:04:18.480 just a bit to the 1922 class one election, the 00:04:18.480 --> 00:04:20.959 famous author Upton Sinclair. The guy who wrote 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:22.980 The Jungle. That's the one. He actually ran for 00:04:22.980 --> 00:04:25.660 the Senate as a socialist. He did. And similar 00:04:25.660 --> 00:04:29.379 to the 1914 data. Sinclair grabbed over 6 % of 00:04:29.379 --> 00:04:32.040 the electorate. Which shows a persistent, organized 00:04:32.040 --> 00:04:34.720 voting bloc. Yeah, a real consistency there. 00:04:34.839 --> 00:04:36.399 Yeah. But if we were talking about numbers that 00:04:36.399 --> 00:04:38.660 truly jump off the page, I want to bring up the 00:04:38.660 --> 00:04:41.980 1932 Class 3 election. Ah, that would be the 00:04:41.980 --> 00:04:43.819 Robert P. Scholar campaign. That is the one. 00:04:44.000 --> 00:04:46.319 So you have the Democrat, William Gibbs McAdoo, 00:04:46.399 --> 00:04:48.819 winning the seat, and the Republican talent tubs 00:04:48.819 --> 00:04:51.279 coming in second. Pretty standard so far. Right. 00:04:51.339 --> 00:04:54.490 But right there in the data. is Robert P. Shuler 00:04:54.490 --> 00:04:56.610 running for the Prohibition Party. And the numbers 00:04:56.610 --> 00:05:00.649 are staggering. He secured over 560 ,000 votes. 00:05:01.529 --> 00:05:03.949 Over half a million people, representing more 00:05:03.949 --> 00:05:06.649 than a quarter of the entire total vote, went 00:05:06.649 --> 00:05:09.329 to the Prohibition Party candidate in 1932. If 00:05:09.329 --> 00:05:12.310 we connect this to the bigger picture, this data 00:05:12.310 --> 00:05:15.209 tells a profound story about the cultural climate 00:05:15.209 --> 00:05:17.709 of early 20th century California. Yeah, what 00:05:17.709 --> 00:05:19.970 does that tell us? You're seeing a state grappling 00:05:19.970 --> 00:05:22.879 with the temperance movement. labor rights and 00:05:22.879 --> 00:05:25.699 immense economic anxiety during the early years 00:05:25.699 --> 00:05:27.480 of the Great Depression. Because people were 00:05:27.480 --> 00:05:30.699 desperate for solutions. Exactly. Those movements 00:05:30.699 --> 00:05:34.500 had enough genuine popular support to field incredibly 00:05:34.500 --> 00:05:37.899 viable third party candidates. Voters were not 00:05:37.899 --> 00:05:41.060 locked into a rigid two party mindset. They were 00:05:41.060 --> 00:05:44.759 actively using the ballot to voice very specific, 00:05:45.000 --> 00:05:48.639 uncompromising ideological stances. And the system 00:05:48.639 --> 00:05:51.410 at the time accommodated that expression. accommodated 00:05:51.410 --> 00:05:54.620 in some highly unusual ways too. If you read 00:05:54.620 --> 00:05:56.439 the fine print in the notes of this Wikipedia 00:05:56.439 --> 00:05:59.300 article, you discover an electoral mechanic called 00:05:59.300 --> 00:06:02.120 cross -nomination. Yes, this is a distinct quirk 00:06:02.120 --> 00:06:04.500 of California's electoral history that completely 00:06:04.500 --> 00:06:07.959 alters how we read the data. How so? Well, under 00:06:07.959 --> 00:06:10.319 this system, candidates could essentially compete 00:06:10.319 --> 00:06:12.519 for and win the nomination of multiple political 00:06:12.519 --> 00:06:14.939 parties simultaneously during the primary phase. 00:06:15.100 --> 00:06:16.939 Which feels completely counterintuitive today. 00:06:17.019 --> 00:06:19.279 Like, why would the state allow a candidate to 00:06:19.279 --> 00:06:21.439 represent opposing parties? It was actually an 00:06:21.439 --> 00:06:24.959 intentional progressive era reform. Yeah. The 00:06:24.959 --> 00:06:27.519 original goal was to weaken the grip of corrupt 00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:31.279 party bosses and political machines. To take 00:06:31.279 --> 00:06:33.240 the power away from the back rooms again. Right. 00:06:33.399 --> 00:06:35.899 The reformers believe that if a candidate was 00:06:35.899 --> 00:06:38.379 broadly popular enough, they should be able to 00:06:38.379 --> 00:06:41.839 appeal directly to the voters of any party, bypassing 00:06:41.839 --> 00:06:44.180 the party leadership's preferred choices. OK, 00:06:44.259 --> 00:06:47.470 that context. Completely changes how you view 00:06:47.470 --> 00:06:50.310 the 1934 class one election. It really does. 00:06:50.490 --> 00:06:54.029 We have Hiram Johnson, who is an incumbent Republican. 00:06:54.410 --> 00:06:56.870 But according to the notes, he successfully utilized 00:06:56.870 --> 00:06:59.990 this cross nomination mechanic and was also nominated 00:06:59.990 --> 00:07:02.290 by the Democratic Party. So he enters the general 00:07:02.290 --> 00:07:05.230 election as the chosen candidate for both major 00:07:05.230 --> 00:07:07.930 parties. The result is a monumental landslide. 00:07:08.189 --> 00:07:11.069 He wins nearly 95 % of the vote, pulling in almost 00:07:11.069 --> 00:07:13.790 2 million ballots. Incredible numbers. The runner 00:07:13.790 --> 00:07:15.850 -up was a socialist candidate who only managed 00:07:15.850 --> 00:07:18.490 about 5%. A system meant to give voters more 00:07:18.490 --> 00:07:21.810 choices essentially created a unified, unopposed 00:07:21.810 --> 00:07:24.389 sweep. It is a perfect example of how the structural 00:07:24.389 --> 00:07:26.930 rules of the ballot dictate the outcome. When 00:07:26.930 --> 00:07:29.110 the mechanics of the election allow a single 00:07:29.110 --> 00:07:31.790 candidate to capture both major party lines, 00:07:32.189 --> 00:07:34.490 the data reflects a victory that looks almost 00:07:34.490 --> 00:07:38.529 autocratic. Yeah, 95 % is huge. But it is entirely 00:07:38.529 --> 00:07:41.329 a product of the primary system's rules at that 00:07:41.329 --> 00:07:44.649 specific moment in time. It effectively neutralized 00:07:44.649 --> 00:07:47.470 the partisan tug of war before the general election 00:07:47.470 --> 00:07:50.310 even began. Speaking of ballot mechanics, here's 00:07:50.310 --> 00:07:52.850 where it gets really interesting. Oh, yes. Let's 00:07:52.850 --> 00:07:55.009 move our timeline into the 1940s because I want 00:07:55.009 --> 00:07:57.029 to guide you through what has to be the most 00:07:57.029 --> 00:07:59.790 logistically complex election on this entire 00:07:59.790 --> 00:08:03.290 record. The 1946 Class I Special Election. Exactly. 00:08:03.290 --> 00:08:06.750 We are looking at the 1946 Class I Special Election. 00:08:07.199 --> 00:08:10.519 This is a truly remarkable data point. To understand 00:08:10.519 --> 00:08:12.579 it, we have to look at the exact circumstances 00:08:12.579 --> 00:08:14.720 of the ballot. Set the scene for us. There was 00:08:14.720 --> 00:08:16.220 a vacancy in the Senate, which meant there was 00:08:16.220 --> 00:08:18.060 a special election to fill the remainder of the 00:08:18.060 --> 00:08:20.839 current term happening on the exact same day 00:08:20.839 --> 00:08:23.000 as the regular general election for the next 00:08:23.000 --> 00:08:25.399 full term. Right. And because of either printing 00:08:25.399 --> 00:08:27.759 deadlines or legal quirks regarding when the 00:08:27.759 --> 00:08:30.339 vacancy occurred, the candidates for that short 00:08:30.339 --> 00:08:33.139 -term special election were not actually printed 00:08:33.139 --> 00:08:36.500 on that specific section of the ballot. Which 00:08:36.500 --> 00:08:39.100 leads to this astonishing result. William Nolan 00:08:39.100 --> 00:08:41.639 wins the special election for a United States 00:08:41.639 --> 00:08:45.279 Senate seat with over 425 ,000 votes. But he 00:08:45.279 --> 00:08:47.320 doesn't have a party listed next to his name 00:08:47.320 --> 00:08:50.139 in the main column. No, he is listed as a write 00:08:50.139 --> 00:08:53.120 -in candidate. He wins by having hundreds of 00:08:53.120 --> 00:08:55.320 thousands of people manually write his name on 00:08:55.320 --> 00:08:58.019 a piece of paper. And the runner -up. Will Rogers 00:08:58.019 --> 00:09:00.600 Jr. Right, who pulled in over 90 ,000 votes, 00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:03.539 was also a write -in candidate for that specific 00:09:03.539 --> 00:09:06.080 seat. When you stop to consider the logistical 00:09:06.080 --> 00:09:09.169 reality of that event, it is staggering. Imagine 00:09:09.169 --> 00:09:11.309 the level of public education and coordination 00:09:11.309 --> 00:09:14.649 required. In a pre -digital world. Exactly. We 00:09:14.649 --> 00:09:18.230 are talking about 1946. There is no social media 00:09:18.230 --> 00:09:21.289 to spread awareness, no email blasts, no targeted 00:09:21.289 --> 00:09:23.690 digital advertisements reminding you how to properly 00:09:23.690 --> 00:09:25.870 spell a candidate's name. You had to know exactly 00:09:25.870 --> 00:09:27.710 what to do when you walked into the booth. To 00:09:27.710 --> 00:09:30.950 mobilize over half a million voters across a 00:09:30.950 --> 00:09:33.789 geographically vast state like California to 00:09:33.789 --> 00:09:37.070 physically write in specific names requires an 00:09:37.070 --> 00:09:39.580 unprecedented... level of on -the -ground organizing, 00:09:39.919 --> 00:09:42.220 radio campaigning, and newspaper coordination. 00:09:42.639 --> 00:09:45.440 It paints such a vivid picture of civic engagement 00:09:45.440 --> 00:09:48.320 in the post -war era. It really does. Now, as 00:09:48.320 --> 00:09:51.419 we move through the 1950s and the 1960s, the 00:09:51.419 --> 00:09:54.759 spreadsheet shifts again. The multi -party chaos 00:09:54.759 --> 00:09:57.580 of the early century fades, and you start seeing 00:09:57.580 --> 00:10:00.139 major historical figures appear. Purely through 00:10:00.139 --> 00:10:02.009 the lens of the selection data. For instance, 00:10:02.090 --> 00:10:04.929 in 1950, Richard Nixon wins the class three seat 00:10:04.929 --> 00:10:07.750 with roughly 59 % of the vote for the Republicans, 00:10:08.009 --> 00:10:10.110 defeating the Democrat Helen Gahagan Douglas. 00:10:10.429 --> 00:10:12.669 What the data illustrates during this mid -century 00:10:12.669 --> 00:10:15.309 period is a state functioning as a highly competitive, 00:10:15.529 --> 00:10:18.289 genuine two -party battleground. Real toss -up. 00:10:18.370 --> 00:10:21.009 If you track both the class one and class three 00:10:21.009 --> 00:10:23.690 seats through these decades, you see a statistical 00:10:23.690 --> 00:10:26.110 pendulum swinging back and forth with remarkable 00:10:26.110 --> 00:10:28.990 regularity. You really do. We are looking at 00:10:28.990 --> 00:10:30.970 this purely as a timeline of changing hands. 00:10:30.990 --> 00:10:34.250 But it is incredibly consistent. Right. You have 00:10:34.250 --> 00:10:36.769 Republican Thomas Kuchel winning multiple elections 00:10:36.769 --> 00:10:39.190 in the 50s and early 60s. You have Republican 00:10:39.190 --> 00:10:43.230 George Murphy taking a seat in 1964. But interspersed 00:10:43.230 --> 00:10:45.350 right alongside them. You have Democrats taking 00:10:45.350 --> 00:10:48.429 victories like Claire Engel in 1958 and Alan 00:10:48.429 --> 00:10:51.149 Cranston coming in during the 1968 election and 00:10:51.149 --> 00:10:54.110 managing to hold his seat for decades. The control 00:10:54.110 --> 00:10:56.710 of these two Senate seats bounces back and forth 00:10:56.710 --> 00:11:00.090 continually. This pendulum perfectly captures 00:11:00.090 --> 00:11:02.570 the shifting demographics and the intense political 00:11:02.570 --> 00:11:05.049 priorities of California during the Cold War 00:11:05.049 --> 00:11:07.090 and the civil rights era. The state was changing 00:11:07.090 --> 00:11:09.690 fast. It was experiencing a massive suburban 00:11:09.690 --> 00:11:12.789 boom, the rapid growth of the aerospace industry 00:11:12.789 --> 00:11:16.009 and profound cultural revolutions. So the voters 00:11:16.009 --> 00:11:18.450 were constantly adapting. The electorate was. 00:11:18.809 --> 00:11:21.269 actively balancing power, heavily scrutinizing 00:11:21.269 --> 00:11:23.490 and rewarding different party platforms as the 00:11:23.490 --> 00:11:25.850 national landscape evolved. During this specific 00:11:25.850 --> 00:11:28.750 window of time, neither party could claim an 00:11:28.750 --> 00:11:31.129 unbreakable monopoly on the state's representation. 00:11:31.509 --> 00:11:33.710 But that competitive back and forth eventually 00:11:33.710 --> 00:11:37.090 gives way to an era of absolute, undeniable longevity. 00:11:37.110 --> 00:11:39.860 A massive shift. We move the timeline forward 00:11:39.860 --> 00:11:43.799 to the 1980s and particularly to 1992, which 00:11:43.799 --> 00:11:45.980 the data shows as a historic changing of the 00:11:45.980 --> 00:11:48.759 guard for California. 1992 is widely recognized 00:11:48.759 --> 00:11:52.100 as a watershed year because of a prior vacancy. 00:11:52.100 --> 00:11:54.279 Both the class one and the class three seats 00:11:54.279 --> 00:11:56.860 were on the ballot simultaneously. Right. Dianne 00:11:56.860 --> 00:11:59.019 Feinstein wins the class one special election 00:11:59.019 --> 00:12:01.639 with over five point eight million votes. Huge 00:12:01.639 --> 00:12:04.889 numbers. At the exact same time. Barbara Boxer 00:12:04.889 --> 00:12:07.730 wins the Class 3 regular election with over 5 00:12:07.730 --> 00:12:11.019 .1 million votes. both candidates running as 00:12:11.019 --> 00:12:13.759 Democrats. And looking at the sheer scale of 00:12:13.759 --> 00:12:15.779 their tenures based on the numbers in front of 00:12:15.779 --> 00:12:18.480 us is remarkable. When you look at the columns 00:12:18.480 --> 00:12:21.179 for the next few decades, it is just their names, 00:12:21.259 --> 00:12:23.840 election cycle after election cycle. The consistency 00:12:23.840 --> 00:12:26.279 is unparalleled in the state's history. Barbara 00:12:26.279 --> 00:12:28.580 Boxer successfully holds her class three seat 00:12:28.580 --> 00:12:32.159 through the 1998, 2004 and 2010 elections. And 00:12:32.159 --> 00:12:34.519 Feinstein goes even longer. Dianne Feinstein's 00:12:34.519 --> 00:12:37.299 tenure is even more expansive, holding the class 00:12:37.299 --> 00:12:40.129 one seat from that initial 19... special election 00:12:40.129 --> 00:12:42.509 all the way through the 2018 election listed 00:12:42.509 --> 00:12:44.450 here. While the amount of time they spent in 00:12:44.450 --> 00:12:47.309 office is impressive, what truly stands out in 00:12:47.309 --> 00:12:50.070 the data is the exponentially expanding voter 00:12:50.070 --> 00:12:52.289 base they were capturing. The raw totals are 00:12:52.289 --> 00:12:54.389 mind -boggling. Let's ground this with a comparison. 00:12:55.049 --> 00:12:58.470 Back in 1916, Hiram Johnson won his Senate seat 00:12:58.470 --> 00:13:02.509 with roughly 574 ,000 votes. You could fit that 00:13:02.509 --> 00:13:05.830 entire winning voter base into a few large modern 00:13:05.830 --> 00:13:08.389 sports stadiums. Easily. But by the time Dianne 00:13:08.389 --> 00:13:11.549 Feinstein runs in 2012, she is pulling in an 00:13:11.549 --> 00:13:17.370 astonishing 7 ,864 ,624 votes to secure her victory. 00:13:17.820 --> 00:13:20.399 That metric is a direct reflection of the exponential 00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:22.799 population growth of California over a century. 00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:25.620 The state transformed from a developing Western 00:13:25.620 --> 00:13:28.460 frontier into a global economic and demographic 00:13:28.460 --> 00:13:31.860 behemoth. I want you listening to this to visualize 00:13:31.860 --> 00:13:34.240 the logistical and financial shift required to 00:13:34.240 --> 00:13:36.240 campaign in that modern environment. It's a completely 00:13:36.240 --> 00:13:38.440 different game. In the early 20th century, a 00:13:38.440 --> 00:13:40.259 candidate might whistle -stop their way around 00:13:40.259 --> 00:13:42.899 the state on a train, speaking to crowds in town 00:13:42.899 --> 00:13:46.549 squares. Very localized. By 2012. to win one 00:13:46.549 --> 00:13:49.250 of these two Senate seats. A candidate has to 00:13:49.250 --> 00:13:51.610 win over a population larger than the entirety 00:13:51.610 --> 00:13:54.190 of many European countries. You're dealing with 00:13:54.190 --> 00:13:57.230 multiple massive television media markets, incredibly 00:13:57.230 --> 00:13:59.850 diverse demographics. And the necessity of immense 00:13:59.850 --> 00:14:02.450 campaign infrastructures just to reach the millions 00:14:02.450 --> 00:14:05.470 of people required to secure a plurality. Precisely. 00:14:05.470 --> 00:14:08.269 The strategies required to secure seven or eight 00:14:08.269 --> 00:14:11.370 million votes are entirely alien to the strategies 00:14:11.370 --> 00:14:13.950 used a century prior. It becomes an exercise 00:14:13.950 --> 00:14:16.970 in mass communication and vast resource management. 00:14:17.450 --> 00:14:19.649 However, just as the scale of the elections reach 00:14:19.649 --> 00:14:22.590 these unprecedented heights, the Wikipedia notes 00:14:22.590 --> 00:14:25.250 reveal yet another seismic disruption to the 00:14:25.250 --> 00:14:27.870 rules of the game. Another pivot. Hidden in the 00:14:27.870 --> 00:14:30.090 reference section is a legal change that completely 00:14:30.090 --> 00:14:32.129 altered everything we have discussed about the 00:14:32.129 --> 00:14:35.090 modern era. We are entering the 2010s to 2024 00:14:35.090 --> 00:14:38.110 timeframe. And the disruptor is Proposition 14. 00:14:38.309 --> 00:14:41.049 Proposition 14, passed by the voters in 2010, 00:14:41.409 --> 00:14:44.289 fundamentally rewired the state's electoral machinery. 00:14:44.649 --> 00:14:47.029 What exactly did it do? It instituted what is 00:14:47.029 --> 00:14:49.789 known as a top two primary system. The mechanics 00:14:49.789 --> 00:14:53.220 of this are crucial. All candidates, regardless 00:14:53.220 --> 00:14:55.899 of their political party affiliation, run on 00:14:55.899 --> 00:14:59.299 a single unified primary ballot. Oh, wow. Then 00:14:59.299 --> 00:15:01.600 only the two candidates who receive the most 00:15:01.600 --> 00:15:04.820 votes advance to the general election. Regardless 00:15:04.820 --> 00:15:07.960 of party, which means you are no longer guaranteed 00:15:07.960 --> 00:15:10.440 to have one Republican and one Democrat facing 00:15:10.440 --> 00:15:13.259 off in November. Exactly. Furthermore, the notes 00:15:13.259 --> 00:15:16.210 point out another critical detail. Proposition 00:15:16.210 --> 00:15:20.289 14 completely banned write -in candidates in 00:15:20.289 --> 00:15:22.870 the general election. Which is a stark contrast 00:15:22.870 --> 00:15:26.690 to the 1946 William Nolan mobilization we discussed 00:15:26.690 --> 00:15:28.230 earlier. Yeah, that couldn't happen anymore. 00:15:28.669 --> 00:15:31.169 Under the new Prop 14 rules, that kind of grassroots 00:15:31.169 --> 00:15:34.289 general election write -in campaign is legally 00:15:34.289 --> 00:15:36.590 impossible. The ballot is locked to those top 00:15:36.590 --> 00:15:38.570 two names. And the immediate results of this 00:15:38.570 --> 00:15:41.149 new rule jump right off the spreadsheet into 00:15:41.149 --> 00:15:43.990 highly unusual territory. Let's look at the 2016 00:15:43.990 --> 00:15:46.230 Class 3 election. Right. Let's look at the matchup. 00:15:46.269 --> 00:15:48.070 The general election matchup is Kamala Harris 00:15:48.070 --> 00:15:50.990 versus Loretta Sanchez. Both candidates are Democrats. 00:15:51.289 --> 00:15:53.330 Right. There is no Republican on the general 00:15:53.330 --> 00:15:55.389 election ballot for that Senate seat at all. 00:15:55.690 --> 00:15:57.690 Because they were the two individuals who secured 00:15:57.690 --> 00:16:00.090 the highest vote totals in the blanket primary. 00:16:00.450 --> 00:16:02.529 And we see it happen again in the very next cycle. 00:16:02.669 --> 00:16:05.690 Look at the 2018 class one election. Feinstein's 00:16:05.690 --> 00:16:08.509 race. Yes. You have incumbent Dianne Feinstein 00:16:08.509 --> 00:16:11.610 facing off against Kevin de Leon. Once again, 00:16:11.710 --> 00:16:14.529 two Democrats facing off in a general election 00:16:14.529 --> 00:16:16.929 for the United States Senate. This raises an 00:16:16.929 --> 00:16:19.710 important question. How does fundamentally altering 00:16:19.710 --> 00:16:22.870 the mechanics of the ballot redefine the strategies 00:16:22.870 --> 00:16:24.750 of the candidates? It has to change everything. 00:16:25.159 --> 00:16:27.399 In a top -two system where candidates from the 00:16:27.399 --> 00:16:29.779 exact same party face each other in a general 00:16:29.779 --> 00:16:32.519 election, traditional partisan campaigning is 00:16:32.519 --> 00:16:34.399 no longer sufficient. You can't just play to 00:16:34.399 --> 00:16:36.980 your base. Exactly. You cannot simply rely on 00:16:36.980 --> 00:16:39.960 turning out your ideological base. Candidates 00:16:39.960 --> 00:16:42.019 are forced to build diverse coalitions across 00:16:42.019 --> 00:16:44.320 the aisle. So a more moderate candidate might 00:16:44.320 --> 00:16:46.759 actively strategize to win over conservative 00:16:46.759 --> 00:16:49.259 voters to defeat a more progressive opponent 00:16:49.259 --> 00:16:51.940 from their own party. The structural rules of 00:16:51.940 --> 00:16:54.620 the ballot entirely dictate the strategic behavior 00:16:54.620 --> 00:16:57.500 of the campaigns. It reshapes the entire political 00:16:57.500 --> 00:16:59.960 playbook. And just to quickly round out the data 00:16:59.960 --> 00:17:02.080 to bring us to the present day, we see the most 00:17:02.080 --> 00:17:05.019 recent entries continuing this trend of vast 00:17:05.019 --> 00:17:07.759 multi -million vote scales. The numbers keep 00:17:07.759 --> 00:17:11.380 climbing. In 2022, Alex Padilla wins the class 00:17:11.380 --> 00:17:14.960 three seat with over 6 .6 million votes. And 00:17:14.960 --> 00:17:18.240 the 2024 data. Adam Schiff wins the class one 00:17:18.240 --> 00:17:20.720 seat against Republican Steve Garvey, pulling 00:17:20.720 --> 00:17:24.259 in over nine million votes. Nine million. We 00:17:24.259 --> 00:17:26.559 have journeyed from half a million votes representing 00:17:26.559 --> 00:17:29.799 a historic landslide to nine million votes being 00:17:29.799 --> 00:17:31.940 the new standard for victory. It's an incredible 00:17:31.940 --> 00:17:35.710 trajectory. So. What does this all mean? We started 00:17:35.710 --> 00:17:37.890 this deep dive looking at an era when the state 00:17:37.890 --> 00:17:40.109 legislature quietly selected senators behind 00:17:40.109 --> 00:17:42.109 closed doors. A completely different world. We 00:17:42.109 --> 00:17:44.710 transitioned into a volatile era of direct democracy, 00:17:44.829 --> 00:17:46.529 where prohibitionists captured a quarter of the 00:17:46.529 --> 00:17:48.890 electorate and candidates utilized cross nominations 00:17:48.890 --> 00:17:51.609 to sweep multiple party tickets simultaneously. 00:17:52.009 --> 00:17:54.089 Then the write -in campaigns. Right. We analyzed 00:17:54.089 --> 00:17:57.049 how half a million people coordinated a massive 00:17:57.049 --> 00:18:00.029 write -in campaign in the 1940s without the aid 00:18:00.029 --> 00:18:02.309 of modern technology. We watched the political 00:18:02.309 --> 00:18:05.109 pendulum swing continuously during the Cold War. 00:18:05.289 --> 00:18:08.740 Witness the dawn. of multi -decade incumbencies 00:18:08.740 --> 00:18:11.259 fueled by exponential population growth. And 00:18:11.259 --> 00:18:13.680 finally arrived at the highly structured top 00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:16.480 two primary system of today that can pit two 00:18:16.480 --> 00:18:18.799 candidates from the same party against one another. 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:21.940 It is a profoundly revealing timeline. It truly 00:18:21.940 --> 00:18:24.380 is. I think the most important takeaway for you, 00:18:24.440 --> 00:18:27.259 the listener, is to recognize that whenever you 00:18:27.259 --> 00:18:30.359 look at a seemingly dry list of election results, 00:18:30.680 --> 00:18:33.180 there's a column of names, dates and percentages. 00:18:33.720 --> 00:18:36.240 You are never just looking at a simple population. 00:18:36.299 --> 00:18:50.599 It's so much more than that. The rules shape 00:18:50.599 --> 00:18:52.619 the outcome just as much as the candidates do. 00:18:52.799 --> 00:18:55.140 And that leaves us with something critical to 00:18:55.140 --> 00:18:57.720 consider moving forward. We have seen how the 00:18:57.720 --> 00:19:00.420 physical and legal mechanisms of the vote, from 00:19:00.420 --> 00:19:02.660 backroom legislature appointments to progressive 00:19:02.660 --> 00:19:06.240 era... cross nominations to modern top two primaries 00:19:06.240 --> 00:19:10.000 drastically alter who ends up on the ballot and 00:19:10.000 --> 00:19:12.759 who ultimately wields power. Oh, so what's next? 00:19:12.920 --> 00:19:15.640 Right. As technology and society continue to 00:19:15.640 --> 00:19:18.619 evolve at an ever accelerating pace, what might 00:19:18.619 --> 00:19:21.059 the next major evolution in electoral mechanics 00:19:21.059 --> 00:19:23.720 look like? That's a fascinating question. How 00:19:23.720 --> 00:19:26.359 might algorithm driven communication platforms 00:19:26.359 --> 00:19:29.799 or even. AI -assisted coalition building force 00:19:29.799 --> 00:19:32.119 another complete rewrite of the political map 00:19:32.119 --> 00:19:34.740 in the decades to come. That is a brilliant thought 00:19:34.740 --> 00:19:37.019 to end on. The rules of the game are never truly 00:19:37.019 --> 00:19:39.319 permanent, and the data is always waiting to 00:19:39.319 --> 00:19:41.200 show us the consequences of what happens next. 00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:43.119 Exactly. Thank you so much for joining us on 00:19:43.119 --> 00:19:45.099 this Deep Drive. I hope we proved that even a 00:19:45.099 --> 00:19:47.319 simple Wikipedia list can hold an absolute treasure 00:19:47.319 --> 00:19:49.680 trove of living history if you know how to read 00:19:49.680 --> 00:19:52.579 between the lines. Stay curious, keep looking 00:19:52.579 --> 00:19:54.799 closely at the data around you, and we will catch 00:19:54.799 --> 00:19:55.339 you next time.