WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.980 Welcome. It is fantastic to have you joining 00:00:02.980 --> 00:00:05.500 us today for a brand new deep dive. Yeah, thanks 00:00:05.500 --> 00:00:08.570 so much for being here. We have a... a rather 00:00:08.570 --> 00:00:10.970 unique source to explore with you today. We really 00:00:10.970 --> 00:00:13.349 do. Because usually, you know, we find ourselves 00:00:13.349 --> 00:00:15.070 digging through these sprawling investigative 00:00:15.070 --> 00:00:18.250 articles or incredibly dense academic research 00:00:18.250 --> 00:00:21.489 papers. Or sweeping historical biographies. Right, 00:00:21.550 --> 00:00:24.769 exactly. But today, our source material is literally 00:00:24.769 --> 00:00:27.829 just a single Wikipedia article. Just one page. 00:00:28.170 --> 00:00:30.109 And the title is about as straightforward as 00:00:30.109 --> 00:00:32.770 language allows. It's called List of United States 00:00:32.770 --> 00:00:35.619 Senate Elections in Delaware. It is a document 00:00:35.619 --> 00:00:38.640 that is entirely devoid of narrative flair. I 00:00:38.640 --> 00:00:41.200 mean, we are looking at a plain table. Just rows 00:00:41.200 --> 00:00:44.119 and columns. Exactly. Comprised of rows and columns 00:00:44.119 --> 00:00:46.479 filled with dates, candidate names, and vote 00:00:46.479 --> 00:00:48.299 counts. And I know what you might be thinking. 00:00:48.439 --> 00:00:51.740 A giant table of election data. Right. A spreadsheet. 00:00:51.939 --> 00:00:55.039 That sounds like the audio equivalent of a dry 00:00:55.039 --> 00:00:57.579 textbook. It really does sound like that at first 00:00:57.579 --> 00:00:59.500 glance. But I promise you, if you look closely 00:00:59.500 --> 00:01:02.920 at this specific data set, it is secretly a century 00:01:02.920 --> 00:01:06.049 -long drama. Oh, absolutely. It's packed with 00:01:06.049 --> 00:01:09.010 family dynasties, stunning political upsets, 00:01:09.109 --> 00:01:13.290 razor -thin margins, and some truly wild statistical 00:01:13.290 --> 00:01:15.930 anomalies. Because stripping away the political 00:01:15.930 --> 00:01:19.250 rhetoric and focusing strictly on the raw numbers 00:01:19.250 --> 00:01:21.909 over a hundred -year period reveals a really 00:01:21.909 --> 00:01:25.129 vivid story. It does. It shows how power is gained, 00:01:25.390 --> 00:01:28.290 how it is held for decades, and how it is ultimately 00:01:28.290 --> 00:01:30.769 lost. Okay, let's unpack this. Let's do it. But 00:01:30.769 --> 00:01:33.290 before we jump into the numbers themselves, we 00:01:33.450 --> 00:01:35.790 to set some ground rules for our deep dive today. 00:01:35.849 --> 00:01:38.170 Very important. We are going to be looking at 00:01:38.170 --> 00:01:41.620 over a century. political data featuring both 00:01:41.620 --> 00:01:44.579 Democrats and Republicans going head -to -head 00:01:44.579 --> 00:01:46.680 and I want to be incredibly clear with you our 00:01:46.680 --> 00:01:49.540 goal today isn't to take a side exactly we are 00:01:49.540 --> 00:01:51.939 not here to endorse any political viewpoints 00:01:51.939 --> 00:01:54.980 platforms or parties not at all we are purely 00:01:54.980 --> 00:01:57.680 here to impartially marvel at the fascinating 00:01:57.680 --> 00:02:00.980 facts the historical milestones and the statistical 00:02:00.980 --> 00:02:03.180 shifts contained right here in the original source 00:02:03.180 --> 00:02:05.719 material Because by treating this data purely 00:02:05.719 --> 00:02:08.919 as a historical artifact, we can step back from 00:02:08.919 --> 00:02:12.139 the daily political noise and we can simply observe 00:02:12.139 --> 00:02:14.719 the math of American democracy at work in one 00:02:14.719 --> 00:02:17.199 specific state. So let's start at the very beginning 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:20.099 of the timeline in our source. The first thing 00:02:20.099 --> 00:02:22.620 that jumps out from the text isn't actually about 00:02:22.620 --> 00:02:24.879 an election. It's about a lack of elections. 00:02:25.219 --> 00:02:28.719 Yes. It's about the distinct lack of them before 00:02:28.719 --> 00:02:31.259 a certain date. Right. Because the data in our 00:02:31.259 --> 00:02:34.599 table doesn't actually begin until 1916. Which 00:02:34.599 --> 00:02:37.199 seems late. It does. But the text explains the 00:02:37.199 --> 00:02:40.840 reasoning behind this clearly. Before 1914, the 00:02:40.840 --> 00:02:43.460 everyday residents of Delaware didn't vote directly 00:02:43.460 --> 00:02:46.520 for their United States senators. Those senators 00:02:46.520 --> 00:02:49.259 were chosen behind closed doors by the Delaware 00:02:49.259 --> 00:02:52.039 General Assembly. That is such a wild concept 00:02:52.039 --> 00:02:53.919 to wrap your head around from a modern perspective. 00:02:54.240 --> 00:02:56.400 It really is. You didn't get to check a box for 00:02:56.400 --> 00:02:59.199 your senator. Your state legislature handled 00:02:59.199 --> 00:03:02.080 the entire process for you. Right. Meaning the 00:03:02.080 --> 00:03:04.800 candidates only had to woo a small handful of 00:03:04.800 --> 00:03:07.800 local politicians rather than campaigning across 00:03:07.800 --> 00:03:10.020 the entire state. And if we connect this to the 00:03:10.020 --> 00:03:13.439 bigger picture, this data set captures a monumental 00:03:13.439 --> 00:03:16.370 shift in American civic life. The text notes 00:03:16.370 --> 00:03:18.849 that the 17th Amendment to the U .S. Constitution 00:03:18.849 --> 00:03:21.689 went into effect providing for the popular election 00:03:21.689 --> 00:03:24.389 of U .S. senators. Dawn of the popular vote. 00:03:24.590 --> 00:03:28.210 Exactly. This table represents the exact historical 00:03:28.210 --> 00:03:31.430 moment when the power to choose federal representatives 00:03:31.430 --> 00:03:34.270 shifted directly into the hands of the voters. 00:03:34.590 --> 00:03:36.750 And looking at the introductory text of this 00:03:36.750 --> 00:03:39.310 article, there's another quirky detail about 00:03:39.310 --> 00:03:42.189 how these elections were scheduled back in the 00:03:42.189 --> 00:03:44.330 early 20th century. Oh, the calendar trivia. 00:03:44.590 --> 00:03:47.099 Yes. The text tells us that elections are held 00:03:47.099 --> 00:03:49.639 on the first Tuesday after November 1st. Which 00:03:49.639 --> 00:03:51.699 we're all very familiar with. Right. That schedule 00:03:51.699 --> 00:03:54.900 hasn't changed. And today, a senator's term officially 00:03:54.900 --> 00:03:58.400 begins on January 3rd. But according to the source, 00:03:58.580 --> 00:04:02.379 before 1935, terms didn't begin until March 4th. 00:04:02.400 --> 00:04:05.139 That leaves a massive four -month gap between 00:04:05.139 --> 00:04:07.580 the moment the votes are tallied and the moment 00:04:07.580 --> 00:04:10.259 the newly elected official actually assumes their 00:04:10.259 --> 00:04:12.639 duties. Think about the reality of that for a 00:04:12.639 --> 00:04:15.270 second. You win your election in early November. 00:04:15.469 --> 00:04:18.329 The people have spoken. Exactly. But you don't 00:04:18.329 --> 00:04:20.569 actually take office until March 4th of the following 00:04:20.569 --> 00:04:22.930 year. It's a long wait. It's like waiting four 00:04:22.930 --> 00:04:25.149 entire months after the Super Bowl to actually 00:04:25.149 --> 00:04:27.829 hand the winning team the championship trophy. 00:04:28.050 --> 00:04:30.569 That is a great way to put it. And in the meantime, 00:04:30.829 --> 00:04:34.449 the politician who just lost gets to keep making 00:04:34.449 --> 00:04:37.170 decisions. Why on earth was there such a massive 00:04:37.170 --> 00:04:39.819 delay? Well, it perfectly reflects the logistical 00:04:39.819 --> 00:04:42.000 realities of the era. Consider communication 00:04:42.000 --> 00:04:45.000 and travel in the early 20th century. Right. 00:04:45.079 --> 00:04:47.180 No Internet. No Internet. No commercial flights. 00:04:47.660 --> 00:04:50.819 Counting votes by hand across an entire state 00:04:50.819 --> 00:04:53.620 took significant time. Yeah. Certifying those 00:04:53.620 --> 00:04:56.220 results took... even longer. And after all of 00:04:56.220 --> 00:04:58.699 that, the newly elected officials had to physically 00:04:58.699 --> 00:05:01.720 travel often by early trains or horse -drawn 00:05:01.720 --> 00:05:03.759 carriages in the dead of winter all the way to 00:05:03.759 --> 00:05:06.639 Washington, D .C. Wow. It was just a fundamentally 00:05:06.639 --> 00:05:10.620 slower world. That makes sense. By 1935, infrastructure 00:05:10.620 --> 00:05:13.480 and communication technology had improved enough 00:05:13.480 --> 00:05:15.920 that lawmakers could safely tighten that window 00:05:15.920 --> 00:05:18.899 up to January 3rd. Just reading the fine print 00:05:18.899 --> 00:05:21.139 at the top of a Wikipedia table gives you a hidden 00:05:21.139 --> 00:05:23.160 history lesson in American transportation. It 00:05:23.160 --> 00:05:25.639 really does. But let's dive into the actual elections. 00:05:26.379 --> 00:05:28.740 The very first popular election on the board 00:05:28.740 --> 00:05:32.019 happens in 1916. Right. And before we name the 00:05:32.019 --> 00:05:34.620 winners, the table divides everything into Class 00:05:34.620 --> 00:05:37.680 1 and Class 2 seats. Which is standard for the 00:05:37.680 --> 00:05:39.980 Senate. Yeah, for anyone who needs a quick refresher, 00:05:40.079 --> 00:05:43.199 the Senate staggers its elections so that only 00:05:43.199 --> 00:05:45.439 about a third of the chamber is up for grabs 00:05:45.439 --> 00:05:48.779 at any one time. Class 1 and Class 2 just designate 00:05:48.779 --> 00:05:51.839 which cycle the seat belongs to. And... The inaugural 00:05:51.839 --> 00:05:54.540 popular vote for the class one seat sets a dramatic 00:05:54.540 --> 00:05:57.339 tone immediately. Right out of the gate, we have 00:05:57.339 --> 00:06:00.920 a major upset. We do. Josiah O. Wolcott, the 00:06:00.920 --> 00:06:03.160 Democratic candidate, defeats the Republican 00:06:03.160 --> 00:06:06.319 incumbent, Henry Adypont. The name DuPont is 00:06:06.319 --> 00:06:08.980 woven into the very fabric of Delaware history. 00:06:09.220 --> 00:06:11.339 Oh, completely. They are a massive industrial 00:06:11.339 --> 00:06:14.420 and family dynasty. So seeing Henry A. DuPont 00:06:14.420 --> 00:06:16.959 lose this very first direct popular election, 00:06:17.079 --> 00:06:20.920 taking roughly 23 ,000 votes, to Wolcott's 25 00:06:20.920 --> 00:06:23.759 ,000 signals how the new voting format immediately 00:06:23.759 --> 00:06:26.379 disrupted established power structures. So Wolcott 00:06:26.379 --> 00:06:28.560 takes the seat, seemingly settling the matter. 00:06:28.699 --> 00:06:31.439 But if we scroll down the table just a few years 00:06:31.439 --> 00:06:35.350 to 1922, the spreadsheet... suddenly gets incredibly 00:06:35.350 --> 00:06:37.850 complicated. It really does. Here's where it 00:06:37.850 --> 00:06:41.970 gets really interesting. Because 1922 was a uniquely 00:06:41.970 --> 00:06:44.990 bizarre election day for the voters of Delaware. 00:06:45.269 --> 00:06:47.149 It was a doubleheader. They didn't just hold 00:06:47.149 --> 00:06:50.110 one Senate election. They held two Senate elections. 00:06:50.310 --> 00:06:52.670 For the exact same seat. On the exact same day. 00:06:52.810 --> 00:06:55.490 This is where the footnotes in our source become 00:06:55.490 --> 00:06:58.750 absolutely essential reading. Love the footnotes. 00:06:58.750 --> 00:07:01.569 According to footnote B, the winner of that 1916 00:07:01.569 --> 00:07:04.660 election, Josiah O. Wolcott, resigned from his 00:07:04.660 --> 00:07:07.660 post. That sudden vacancy triggered a special 00:07:07.660 --> 00:07:11.480 election on November 7, 1922, simply to fill 00:07:11.480 --> 00:07:13.759 the remaining months of his original term. Got 00:07:13.759 --> 00:07:15.779 it. So the matchup for this special election 00:07:15.779 --> 00:07:18.839 features Thomas F. Beyer Jr., the Democrat, running 00:07:18.839 --> 00:07:21.180 against T. Coleman DuPont. Another Republican 00:07:21.180 --> 00:07:23.420 from the DuPont dynasty. Right, who happened 00:07:23.420 --> 00:07:25.439 to be serving as the appointed incumbent at that 00:07:25.439 --> 00:07:27.899 exact moment. And the results of this special 00:07:27.899 --> 00:07:30.550 election are staggering. They really are. Tom 00:07:30.550 --> 00:07:34.730 Seth Baer Jr. received 36 ,954 votes. T. Coleman 00:07:34.730 --> 00:07:39.170 DuPont received 36 ,894 votes. Meaning out of 00:07:39.170 --> 00:07:42.920 roughly 73 ,000 total ballots cast. the margin 00:07:42.920 --> 00:07:45.939 of victory was exactly 60 votes. 60 votes. 60 00:07:45.939 --> 00:07:48.120 votes. You could easily fit the people who decided 00:07:48.120 --> 00:07:50.519 the balance of power in that United States Senate 00:07:50.519 --> 00:07:53.180 race onto a single school bus. It serves as the 00:07:53.180 --> 00:07:55.579 ultimate mathematical testament to the idea that 00:07:55.579 --> 00:07:58.060 single votes carry immense weight. Absolutely. 00:07:58.339 --> 00:08:00.339 However, the voters in Delaware weren't quite 00:08:00.339 --> 00:08:02.899 done for the day. No, they were not. Because 00:08:02.899 --> 00:08:06.480 November 7, 1922, wasn't just the date of the 00:08:06.480 --> 00:08:09.060 special election to finish the old term. It was 00:08:09.060 --> 00:08:12.379 also the date of the regular 1922 election to 00:08:12.379 --> 00:08:14.759 decide who would get the brand new full six -year 00:08:14.759 --> 00:08:16.939 term. And the candidates facing off for the full 00:08:16.939 --> 00:08:19.860 term were, predictably, Thomas F. Bayard Jr. 00:08:20.139 --> 00:08:22.819 and T. Coleman DuPont. So you literally walk 00:08:22.819 --> 00:08:24.620 into the polling place, vote in the special election 00:08:24.620 --> 00:08:26.699 between these two guys. Right. And then move 00:08:26.699 --> 00:08:29.360 further down the same ballot. to vote in the 00:08:29.360 --> 00:08:31.459 regular election between the exact same two guys. 00:08:31.540 --> 00:08:33.980 It's wild. And Bayard ended up winning the regular 00:08:33.980 --> 00:08:36.940 election as well. This time, his margin of victory 00:08:36.940 --> 00:08:41.080 expanded to a total of 325 votes. Now, while 00:08:41.080 --> 00:08:43.559 325 votes is slightly more comfortable than 60, 00:08:43.820 --> 00:08:46.759 it remains an incredibly fragile margin. Definitely. 00:08:46.980 --> 00:08:49.879 But the true underlying narrative of the 1922 00:08:49.879 --> 00:08:52.279 doubleheader lies buried at the bottom of the 00:08:52.279 --> 00:08:55.820 page in footnotes C and D. The unsung statistical 00:08:55.820 --> 00:08:59.559 variable of the 1922 Senate race. Exactly. Footnote 00:08:59.559 --> 00:09:02.559 C &D introduces us to a third party candidate 00:09:02.559 --> 00:09:05.519 named Frank Stevens. OK. The spreadsheet doesn't 00:09:05.519 --> 00:09:07.480 give him his own dedicated column. His results 00:09:07.480 --> 00:09:10.080 are just tucked away. In the special election, 00:09:10.360 --> 00:09:14.330 Frank Stevens received 581 votes. Wow. In the 00:09:14.330 --> 00:09:17.789 regular election, he received 688 votes. Let's 00:09:17.789 --> 00:09:19.470 do the math on that and think about what it means 00:09:19.470 --> 00:09:22.009 for the main candidate. Right. In a special election 00:09:22.009 --> 00:09:25.269 decided by exactly 60 votes, a third -party candidate 00:09:25.269 --> 00:09:28.529 walked away with 581 votes. That is massive. 00:09:28.649 --> 00:09:31.710 In the regular election decided by 325 votes, 00:09:31.850 --> 00:09:35.120 that same candidate took 608 votes. Wow. This 00:09:35.120 --> 00:09:37.700 is the classic spoiler effect laid bare in raw 00:09:37.700 --> 00:09:40.019 data. Because we cannot know for certain who 00:09:40.019 --> 00:09:42.519 those Stevens voters would have chosen if forced 00:09:42.519 --> 00:09:45.000 into a strict binary choice between Bayard and 00:09:45.000 --> 00:09:47.940 DuPont. We can't know, but we do know that their 00:09:47.940 --> 00:09:49.799 collective presence in the race mathematically 00:09:49.799 --> 00:09:53.919 dwarfed the margin of victory. Those 581 people 00:09:53.919 --> 00:09:57.200 possessed enough voting power to flip the election 00:09:57.200 --> 00:09:59.879 nearly 10 times over. It makes you wonder what 00:09:59.879 --> 00:10:02.179 the political conversations were like in Delaware 00:10:02.179 --> 00:10:05.299 the morning of November 8th, 1922, when they 00:10:05.299 --> 00:10:08.019 realized just how tight the margins were. I can 00:10:08.019 --> 00:10:09.820 only imagine. But as we move further down the 00:10:09.820 --> 00:10:12.879 timeline, the data shows a very distinct behavioral 00:10:12.879 --> 00:10:15.960 shift. We transitioned away from these razor 00:10:15.960 --> 00:10:19.059 -thin 60 -volt nail biters into what we can only 00:10:19.059 --> 00:10:22.440 call the eras of ironclad incumbency. Yes. A 00:10:22.440 --> 00:10:24.720 very clear pattern emerges in the mid to late 00:10:24.720 --> 00:10:27.620 20th century. Once the voters of Delaware find 00:10:27.620 --> 00:10:29.659 a senator they prefer, they tend to keep them 00:10:29.659 --> 00:10:31.740 in office for a very long time. They really do. 00:10:31.879 --> 00:10:33.740 The streaks are remarkable, appearing on both 00:10:33.740 --> 00:10:35.779 sides of the political aisle. Looking at the 00:10:35.779 --> 00:10:38.440 Republican streaks first, we find John J. Williams. 00:10:38.700 --> 00:10:42.399 He wins his first election in 1946. He then successfully 00:10:42.399 --> 00:10:47.460 defends that seat in 1952, 1958, and 1964. That 00:10:47.460 --> 00:10:50.460 is four consecutive terms. Spanning 24 continuous 00:10:50.460 --> 00:10:52.919 years. in the Senate. And shortly after Williams 00:10:52.919 --> 00:10:55.059 leaves, we see William Roth, another Republican. 00:10:55.320 --> 00:10:58.240 He wins his seat in 1970 and then goes on to 00:10:58.240 --> 00:11:02.779 win again in 1976, 1982, 1988, and 1994. Five 00:11:02.779 --> 00:11:05.220 consecutive terms. 30 straight years holding 00:11:05.220 --> 00:11:08.100 that class one seat. A massive block of the 20th 00:11:08.100 --> 00:11:10.240 century in Delaware is dominated by just two 00:11:10.240 --> 00:11:12.519 Republican names. And the Democrats have their 00:11:12.519 --> 00:11:14.480 own legendary streaks recorded in this table. 00:11:15.259 --> 00:11:17.460 Moving over to the class two section, we find 00:11:17.460 --> 00:11:20.570 Joe Biden. Right. His very first election in 00:11:20.570 --> 00:11:23.690 1972 was surprisingly close. He defeated the 00:11:23.690 --> 00:11:27.649 incumbent J. Caleb Boggs by roughly 3 ,000 votes 00:11:27.649 --> 00:11:31.539 out of a total of about 228 ,000 cast. Surviving 00:11:31.539 --> 00:11:33.919 that initial highly competitive race allowed 00:11:33.919 --> 00:11:36.360 him to establish a formidable run of incumbency. 00:11:36.500 --> 00:11:39.659 From that narrow 1972 win, Biden holds that seat 00:11:39.659 --> 00:11:44.000 through 1978, 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, and 2008. 00:11:44.460 --> 00:11:46.779 Seven victories spanning nearly four decades. 00:11:47.120 --> 00:11:49.000 And jumping back to class one, we have Tom Carper. 00:11:49.100 --> 00:11:51.419 Right, the giant slayer. Exactly. In the year 00:11:51.419 --> 00:11:53.500 2000, Carper goes up against William Roth, the 00:11:53.500 --> 00:11:55.360 incumbent who had won five consecutive terms, 00:11:55.480 --> 00:11:58.100 and Carper dethrones him. Winning by nearly 40 00:11:58.100 --> 00:12:01.750 ,000 votes. taking roughly 181 ,000 to Roth's 00:12:01.750 --> 00:12:05.059 142 ,000. Carper then starts his own modern streak, 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:09.320 winning in 2006, 2012 and 2018. What's fascinating 00:12:09.320 --> 00:12:11.860 here is how the data shows us the exact moments 00:12:11.860 --> 00:12:14.620 when these multi -decade political reigns suddenly 00:12:14.620 --> 00:12:17.539 end. You have these streaks that seem invincible, 00:12:17.720 --> 00:12:21.179 like Roth dominating for 30 years or Boggs serving 00:12:21.179 --> 00:12:23.700 as an established incumbent before encountering 00:12:23.700 --> 00:12:26.320 Biden. And they conclude either by a sudden defeat 00:12:26.320 --> 00:12:29.220 or, in one particular case in this table, an 00:12:29.220 --> 00:12:32.299 entirely unrecorded departure. The 2010 mystery. 00:12:32.360 --> 00:12:35.000 Yes. This is easily one of my favorite quirks 00:12:35.000 --> 00:12:37.299 of relying solely on this specific Wikipedia 00:12:37.299 --> 00:12:40.179 table as our primary text. It stands out as a 00:12:40.179 --> 00:12:42.620 glaring anomaly in the spreadsheet. Because if 00:12:42.620 --> 00:12:44.600 you look at the class two table, the data shows 00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:47.580 Joe Biden winning his reelection in 2008 with 00:12:47.580 --> 00:12:51.100 a massive total of over 257 ,000 votes. A decisive 00:12:51.100 --> 00:12:53.779 victory. But then the very next row down on the 00:12:53.779 --> 00:12:56.120 chart is a 2010 special election. And the winner 00:12:56.120 --> 00:12:58.450 of that election is Chris Coons. And unlike the 00:12:58.450 --> 00:13:01.830 1922 special election, where footnote B explicitly 00:13:01.830 --> 00:13:04.029 informed us that Josiah O. Wolcott resigned, 00:13:04.409 --> 00:13:07.289 the source text provides absolutely zero explanation 00:13:07.289 --> 00:13:10.809 for this 2010 vacancy. Nothing. There is no footnote, 00:13:10.889 --> 00:13:14.230 no parenthetical explanation. Joe Biden wins 00:13:14.230 --> 00:13:17.350 in 2008, and just two years later, Chris Coons 00:13:17.350 --> 00:13:19.610 is winning a special election for the exact same 00:13:19.610 --> 00:13:21.830 seat. It's just a gap. The spreadsheet simply 00:13:21.830 --> 00:13:24.009 leaves it as a curious blank spot in the narrative. 00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:27.720 If this single table was the only surviving document 00:13:27.720 --> 00:13:30.200 of American history, future researchers would 00:13:30.200 --> 00:13:32.139 be scratching their heads wondering what on earth 00:13:32.139 --> 00:13:34.200 happened to the candidate who won a quarter million 00:13:34.200 --> 00:13:36.940 votes in 2008 and then vanished from the chart. 00:13:37.059 --> 00:13:39.820 And this is a fundamental lesson in data literacy 00:13:39.820 --> 00:13:42.940 for anyone doing research. A primary source table 00:13:42.940 --> 00:13:44.799 like this will give you the what with absolute 00:13:44.799 --> 00:13:47.179 mathematical precision. But it is completely 00:13:47.179 --> 00:13:50.200 blind to the why. Without secondary context to 00:13:50.200 --> 00:13:52.519 explain career shifts or higher political aspirations, 00:13:53.019 --> 00:13:55.320 historical data is just a puzzle missing half 00:13:55.320 --> 00:13:57.679 its pieces. Speaking of the pieces hidden in 00:13:57.679 --> 00:13:59.139 the margins, I want to spend some time talking 00:13:59.139 --> 00:14:01.720 about the footnotes. The footnotes at the bottom 00:14:01.720 --> 00:14:04.559 of this table are where the unsung heroes and 00:14:04.559 --> 00:14:07.259 the most uniquely persistent candidates live. 00:14:07.659 --> 00:14:10.580 The fine print contains several fascinating subplots 00:14:10.580 --> 00:14:13.059 of its own. Let's track one specific candidate's 00:14:13.059 --> 00:14:15.279 name through the data. According to Footnote, 00:14:15.419 --> 00:14:18.779 a candidate named Christine O'Donnell ran in 00:14:18.779 --> 00:14:22.080 the 2006 Class 1 election against Tom Carper. 00:14:22.159 --> 00:14:26.299 Okay. She secured just over 11 ,000 votes. In 00:14:26.299 --> 00:14:28.899 a statewide Senate race, that is a fairly small 00:14:28.899 --> 00:14:31.419 number. But her statistical footprint doesn't 00:14:31.419 --> 00:14:34.720 stop in 2006. Unphased by the loss, she returns 00:14:34.720 --> 00:14:38.059 two years later. In 2008, she makes it out of 00:14:38.059 --> 00:14:39.860 the footnotes and into the main columns of the 00:14:39.860 --> 00:14:42.480 table, running class two against Joe Biden. Right. 00:14:42.600 --> 00:14:45.419 She loses that race as well, but she vastly improves 00:14:45.419 --> 00:14:48.460 her numbers, winning over 140 ,000 votes. Demonstrating 00:14:48.460 --> 00:14:50.580 a remarkable commitment to the process. And then 00:14:50.580 --> 00:14:52.700 she runs a third time in that mysterious 2010 00:14:52.700 --> 00:14:55.039 special election against Chris Coons, securing 00:14:55.039 --> 00:14:58.200 over 123 ,000 votes. Over the course of four 00:14:58.200 --> 00:15:01.980 short years, she mounts three separate statewide 00:15:01.980 --> 00:15:05.419 Senate campaigns. You have to admire the sheer 00:15:05.419 --> 00:15:08.139 persistence required to keep returning to the 00:15:08.139 --> 00:15:10.679 ballot. It illustrates a clear trajectory of 00:15:10.679 --> 00:15:13.480 building name recognition. Even when a campaign 00:15:13.480 --> 00:15:16.320 doesn't culminate in a victory, the escalating 00:15:16.320 --> 00:15:18.740 numbers strictly document the effort and the 00:15:18.740 --> 00:15:20.559 growing infrastructure behind the candidate. 00:15:20.820 --> 00:15:23.100 Then we have the micro vote getters. Oh, I love 00:15:23.100 --> 00:15:25.019 these. These are the candidates whose numbers 00:15:25.019 --> 00:15:28.179 make you pause and marvel at the sheer improbability 00:15:28.179 --> 00:15:30.820 of their campaigns. The ultimate fixtures of 00:15:30.820 --> 00:15:33.720 the footnotes. In 1934, footnote. documents a 00:15:33.720 --> 00:15:36.539 candidate named John T. Ludkoski. Okay. In the 00:15:36.539 --> 00:15:39.000 entire state of Delaware, Ludkoski received exactly 00:15:39.000 --> 00:15:43.799 69 votes. 69 votes. Jumping ahead to 1964, Footnote 00:15:43.799 --> 00:15:46.840 G introduces us to Joseph B. Holland. His grand 00:15:46.840 --> 00:15:48.659 total for a seat in the United States Senate 00:15:48.659 --> 00:15:51.820 was exactly 71 votes. In an electoral environment 00:15:51.820 --> 00:15:54.120 where the primary candidates are pulling in tens 00:15:54.120 --> 00:15:57.000 of thousands of votes, seeing a final tally in 00:15:57.000 --> 00:15:59.340 the double digits provides quite a stark contrast. 00:15:59.740 --> 00:16:03.289 I want you to picture the reality of this. Imagine 00:16:03.289 --> 00:16:07.590 being John T. Lodkoski in 1934. You decide to 00:16:07.590 --> 00:16:09.669 run for the United States Senate. That's a big 00:16:09.669 --> 00:16:12.149 decision. You campaign. Perhaps you print up 00:16:12.149 --> 00:16:14.210 some flyers. You talk to your neighbors. When 00:16:14.210 --> 00:16:15.909 all the dust settles, you didn't even break 100 00:16:15.909 --> 00:16:19.529 votes. You got exactly 69 people to endorse your 00:16:19.529 --> 00:16:22.250 vision for the country. Yeah. But because of 00:16:22.250 --> 00:16:24.799 the strict rules of record keeping. Your name 00:16:24.799 --> 00:16:27.460 is permanently etched into the historical record 00:16:27.460 --> 00:16:30.080 of the United States Senate elections. You are 00:16:30.080 --> 00:16:32.519 forever part of the data, sitting right alongside 00:16:32.519 --> 00:16:35.080 the legendary dynasties. It grants a specific 00:16:35.080 --> 00:16:38.100 kind of immortality, tucked away neatly in footnote 00:16:38.100 --> 00:16:40.600 E. It really does. And that brings us to the 00:16:40.600 --> 00:16:43.340 end of our timeline. We started today by looking 00:16:43.340 --> 00:16:45.259 at a source that initially seemed like nothing 00:16:45.259 --> 00:16:47.399 more than a boring list of dates and numbers. 00:16:47.600 --> 00:16:50.460 A dry spreadsheet. Right. But by unpacking it, 00:16:50.519 --> 00:16:53.379 we found a vibrant tapestry. We found a 60 -vote 00:16:53.379 --> 00:16:56.539 nail -biter in 1922 that had to be decided on 00:16:56.539 --> 00:16:58.620 the exact same day as a regular election. We 00:16:58.620 --> 00:17:01.139 tracked century -long family dynasties. We observed 00:17:01.139 --> 00:17:04.140 legendary streaks of incumbency from John J. 00:17:04.200 --> 00:17:07.599 Williams, William Roth, Joe Biden, and Tom Carper. 00:17:07.920 --> 00:17:10.900 And we found the unsung heroes of the footnotes. 00:17:11.359 --> 00:17:14.019 So what does this all mean? This raises an important 00:17:14.019 --> 00:17:15.980 question about perspective and scale. When you 00:17:15.980 --> 00:17:17.900 look at the entirety of this list from top to 00:17:17.900 --> 00:17:20.299 bottom, the sheer scale of the numbers grows 00:17:20.299 --> 00:17:23.799 exponentially alongside the population. We analyzed 00:17:23.799 --> 00:17:27.000 Thomas F. Bayard Jr. and T. Coleman DuPont fighting 00:17:27.000 --> 00:17:30.099 over margins of 60 votes and 300 votes back in 00:17:30.099 --> 00:17:33.410 the 1920s. Scrolling all the way down to the 00:17:33.410 --> 00:17:35.990 most recent entry in the table, you see Lisa 00:17:35.990 --> 00:17:38.930 Blunt Rochester winning her 2024 election with 00:17:38.930 --> 00:17:42.210 over 283 ,000 votes. The electorate has become 00:17:42.210 --> 00:17:44.670 incredibly massive by comparison. It has. The 00:17:44.670 --> 00:17:46.190 final thought I want to leave you with is this. 00:17:46.269 --> 00:17:48.930 Think about those 60 people who decided the 1922 00:17:48.930 --> 00:17:51.309 special election. Or think about the 69 people 00:17:51.309 --> 00:17:54.450 who believed in John T. Budkoski in 1934 enough 00:17:54.450 --> 00:17:56.950 to give him their vote. Today, we frequently 00:17:56.950 --> 00:17:59.710 hear about massive sweeping mandates in modern 00:17:59.710 --> 00:18:24.890 elections involving millions. That is a brilliant 00:18:24.890 --> 00:18:27.529 thought to end on. A single vote can often feel 00:18:27.529 --> 00:18:29.900 like a drop in the ocean. But sometimes, as the 00:18:29.900 --> 00:18:32.039 historical data mathematically prove, it is the 00:18:32.039 --> 00:18:34.299 exact drop that overflows the glass. Exactly. 00:18:34.339 --> 00:18:36.220 Thank you so much for joining us on this deep 00:18:36.220 --> 00:18:38.319 dive today. We hope we proved that even the driest 00:18:38.319 --> 00:18:40.559 spreadsheet can hide an incredible story if you 00:18:40.559 --> 00:18:42.880 just know where to look. Keep exploring, keep 00:18:42.880 --> 00:18:44.920 questioning everything you read, and whatever 00:18:44.920 --> 00:18:47.819 you do, never, ever ignore the footnotes. We 00:18:47.819 --> 00:18:48.720 will catch you next time.