WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.500 Welcome to today's deep dive. If you're joining 00:00:03.500 --> 00:00:05.400 us right now, it means you're that ever curious 00:00:05.400 --> 00:00:07.960 learner we just love having with us. Yeah. You 00:00:07.960 --> 00:00:10.699 know, you're someone who doesn't just want the 00:00:10.699 --> 00:00:13.500 top level headlines, but really wants to understand 00:00:13.500 --> 00:00:16.550 the. Well, the underlying mechanics of how our 00:00:16.550 --> 00:00:19.230 systems actually work. The nuts and bolts. Exactly. 00:00:19.289 --> 00:00:23.410 And today we are opening up a single, seemingly 00:00:23.410 --> 00:00:26.649 straightforward Wikipedia page that acts as a 00:00:26.649 --> 00:00:29.050 hidden roadmap to the changing political landscape 00:00:29.050 --> 00:00:31.690 of the entire United States. And we're doing 00:00:31.690 --> 00:00:33.829 that just by looking at the history of one single 00:00:33.829 --> 00:00:36.479 state. Right. It really is a remarkable document. 00:00:36.520 --> 00:00:38.859 It is. I mean, when you first glance at it, it 00:00:38.859 --> 00:00:40.939 just looks like a dry ledger of names and dates, 00:00:40.979 --> 00:00:43.399 just rows and rows of data. Yeah, totally. But 00:00:43.399 --> 00:00:45.799 once you start analyzing the structural shifts 00:00:45.799 --> 00:00:48.719 and really reading the footnotes. a much larger 00:00:48.719 --> 00:00:51.200 narrative emerges about American governance. 00:00:51.479 --> 00:00:54.659 So today's source material is the Wikipedia article 00:00:54.659 --> 00:00:57.539 titled List of United States Senate Elections 00:00:57.539 --> 00:01:00.259 in Pennsylvania. That's the one. And the mission 00:01:00.259 --> 00:01:03.460 for our deep dive today is to map out the history, 00:01:03.679 --> 00:01:06.340 the foundational constitutional mechanics, and 00:01:06.340 --> 00:01:09.400 honestly, the truly unexpected anomalies that 00:01:09.400 --> 00:01:11.980 have defined Pennsylvania's Senate races. From 00:01:11.980 --> 00:01:14.079 the early 20th century all the way up to the 00:01:14.079 --> 00:01:17.159 present day. Right. Now, looking at over a century 00:01:17.159 --> 00:01:19.810 of... elections means we are naturally dealing 00:01:19.810 --> 00:01:22.590 with fiercely contested races involving candidates 00:01:22.590 --> 00:01:25.049 from both sides of the political aisle of course 00:01:25.049 --> 00:01:28.049 so Just to be clear, right up front, our mission 00:01:28.049 --> 00:01:31.069 today isn't to take sides or endorse any specific 00:01:31.069 --> 00:01:33.530 platforms or political viewpoints. No, not at 00:01:33.530 --> 00:01:35.629 all. We are strictly putting on our historian 00:01:35.629 --> 00:01:38.730 hats to look impartially at the raw data, the 00:01:38.730 --> 00:01:41.390 constitutional rules, and the fascinating historical 00:01:41.390 --> 00:01:43.650 records contained right within this source material. 00:01:43.969 --> 00:01:45.790 And that really is the best approach to take 00:01:45.790 --> 00:01:48.209 here. We're treating this data strictly as a 00:01:48.209 --> 00:01:50.829 historical lens. By focusing on the math, the 00:01:50.829 --> 00:01:52.790 constitutional rules, and the recorded events, 00:01:52.950 --> 00:01:55.230 we can see exactly how those numbers were shared. 00:01:55.209 --> 00:01:59.390 Okay, so to kick things off, we really need to 00:01:59.390 --> 00:02:01.829 understand the blueprint of the Senate itself. 00:02:02.189 --> 00:02:04.530 Like, how did the framers actually build this 00:02:04.530 --> 00:02:06.709 institution? Right, the original design. Yeah. 00:02:06.769 --> 00:02:09.310 Our source lays out the foundational mechanics 00:02:09.310 --> 00:02:12.330 before it even gets into the election returns. 00:02:12.669 --> 00:02:15.569 What was the original design here? Well, according 00:02:15.569 --> 00:02:17.469 to the original text of the U .S. Constitution, 00:02:17.949 --> 00:02:21.310 every single state, regardless of its geographic 00:02:21.310 --> 00:02:24.639 size or its population density, was allotted 00:02:24.639 --> 00:02:28.219 exactly to United States senators. OK. But the 00:02:28.219 --> 00:02:30.699 crucial insight here is how those senators were 00:02:30.699 --> 00:02:33.680 initially chosen. In the early days of the republic, 00:02:34.020 --> 00:02:37.060 these two senators were not selected by the everyday 00:02:37.060 --> 00:02:39.620 voters. Oh, wow. Yeah. They were chosen directly 00:02:39.620 --> 00:02:41.800 by the state legislature. Which really makes 00:02:41.800 --> 00:02:43.900 you wonder about the intent behind that design. 00:02:44.180 --> 00:02:46.520 Why give that power to the state capitals instead 00:02:46.520 --> 00:02:49.120 of the voting public? It comes down to who the 00:02:49.120 --> 00:02:51.219 Senate was originally meant to represent. OK. 00:02:51.319 --> 00:02:53.159 The House of Representatives was designed to 00:02:53.159 --> 00:02:55.379 be the voice of the people elected directly by 00:02:55.379 --> 00:02:57.500 the public. But the Senate was originally designed 00:02:57.500 --> 00:02:59.599 to represent the interests of the state governments 00:02:59.599 --> 00:03:01.960 themselves. Oh, I see. Senators were essentially 00:03:01.960 --> 00:03:05.400 meant to be ambassadors sent from the state capitals 00:03:05.400 --> 00:03:08.300 to Washington just to ensure state interests 00:03:08.300 --> 00:03:11.180 were protected at the federal level. That completely 00:03:11.180 --> 00:03:13.639 reframes how you look at the institution. It 00:03:13.639 --> 00:03:15.639 does. Yeah. It also makes the implementation 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:18.960 of staggered six year terms really intriguing. 00:03:19.500 --> 00:03:22.060 The Constitution divided the Senate into three 00:03:22.060 --> 00:03:24.900 groups or classes. Right. Class one, class two 00:03:24.900 --> 00:03:27.639 and class three. Yeah. And the purpose of this 00:03:27.639 --> 00:03:30.280 was to ensure that only one third of the Senate 00:03:30.280 --> 00:03:33.259 is up for reelection every two years. Exactly. 00:03:33.300 --> 00:03:35.680 If you think about it, it's a lot like a university. 00:03:36.000 --> 00:03:37.879 Oh, that's a great comparison. Right. You have 00:03:37.879 --> 00:03:39.780 your freshmen, your sophomores, your juniors. 00:03:39.819 --> 00:03:42.400 and your seniors. Only a portion of the student 00:03:42.400 --> 00:03:44.719 body graduates at any one time. So you never 00:03:44.719 --> 00:03:47.780 have a completely empty campus. Exactly. There 00:03:47.780 --> 00:03:49.879 are always experienced students around to keep 00:03:49.879 --> 00:03:51.900 the institution stable and running smoothly. 00:03:52.099 --> 00:03:54.680 The Senate seems to work the exact same way. 00:03:54.840 --> 00:03:58.460 That is a highly accurate analogy. The framers 00:03:58.460 --> 00:04:01.500 wanted to insulate the Senate from sudden sweeping 00:04:01.500 --> 00:04:05.060 shifts in public passion. You never want a completely 00:04:05.060 --> 00:04:07.560 blank slate in the upper chamber of the legislature. 00:04:08.240 --> 00:04:11.360 You want institutional continuity. Right. And 00:04:11.360 --> 00:04:14.460 to get that cycle started back in 1788, the founding 00:04:14.460 --> 00:04:16.819 members of Class I only served a two -year term, 00:04:16.980 --> 00:04:19.319 Class II served a four -year term, and Class 00:04:19.319 --> 00:04:23.079 III served the full six years. Oh, just to stagger 00:04:23.079 --> 00:04:26.139 them from the jump. Exactly. But after that initial 00:04:26.139 --> 00:04:28.579 setup phase, every senator elected thereafter 00:04:28.579 --> 00:04:31.779 would serve a full six -year term. And based 00:04:31.779 --> 00:04:34.060 on our source, Pennsylvania was assigned a Class 00:04:34.060 --> 00:04:36.740 I seat and a Class III seat. We even have the 00:04:36.740 --> 00:04:38.860 upcoming dates from the text to ground this in 00:04:38.860 --> 00:04:41.199 the present. Yes, we do. The next Class 3 election 00:04:41.199 --> 00:04:43.240 in Pennsylvania is scheduled for November 7, 00:04:43.420 --> 00:04:46.120 2028. And the next Class 1 election is set for 00:04:46.120 --> 00:04:48.660 November 5, 2030. But to get to those modern 00:04:48.660 --> 00:04:51.240 dates, we really have to talk about a monumental 00:04:51.240 --> 00:04:53.699 change to the rules. The big one. Yeah, the entire 00:04:53.699 --> 00:04:56.879 game shifted in the early 20th century. This 00:04:56.879 --> 00:04:58.959 brings us to the 17th Amendment to the Constitution, 00:04:59.319 --> 00:05:02.720 which was ratified in 1913. Right. If we connect 00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:04.920 this to the bigger picture, this is a fundamental 00:05:04.920 --> 00:05:07.879 rewiring of American democracy. Remember how 00:05:07.879 --> 00:05:09.740 we discussed that state legislatures originally 00:05:09.740 --> 00:05:11.939 picked the senators? Yeah, the ambassadors from 00:05:11.939 --> 00:05:14.300 the state capitals. The 17th Amendment stripped 00:05:14.300 --> 00:05:16.680 that appointment power away from the state capitals 00:05:16.680 --> 00:05:19.199 entirely and handed it directly to the voters. 00:05:19.319 --> 00:05:22.699 Wow. From 1913 onward, U .S. senators are elected 00:05:22.699 --> 00:05:25.540 by direct popular vote in a statewide general 00:05:25.540 --> 00:05:28.870 election. So that is a seismic shift in how power 00:05:28.870 --> 00:05:31.670 is distributed. You transition from closed door 00:05:31.670 --> 00:05:35.069 negotiations in the state legislature to massive 00:05:35.069 --> 00:05:38.910 statewide popular campaigns. And the 17th Amendment 00:05:38.910 --> 00:05:41.209 also established the rules for special elections, 00:05:41.430 --> 00:05:44.410 which are held to fill midterm vacancies. Right. 00:05:44.449 --> 00:05:46.310 If a senator leaves office early, the voters 00:05:46.310 --> 00:05:48.490 eventually elect someone to serve out the remainder 00:05:48.490 --> 00:05:51.389 of that specific unexpired term. Exactly. Which 00:05:51.389 --> 00:05:53.709 leads us perfectly into our next segment. Here's 00:05:53.709 --> 00:05:55.430 where it gets really interesting. It really does. 00:05:55.560 --> 00:05:58.120 Because the history of Pennsylvania Senate seats 00:05:58.120 --> 00:06:00.699 isn't just a smooth progression of six -year 00:06:00.699 --> 00:06:04.339 terms. The data reveals some unprecedented upheaval. 00:06:04.540 --> 00:06:06.879 History rarely follows a neat, orderly path. 00:06:07.139 --> 00:06:09.759 And the source material heavily underscores that. 00:06:09.939 --> 00:06:12.819 The timeline is punctuated by sudden vacancies, 00:06:13.000 --> 00:06:15.680 severe controversies, and unexpected structural 00:06:15.680 --> 00:06:18.300 collisions. Let's look at the sheer logistical 00:06:18.300 --> 00:06:21.339 puzzle of the year 1922 for the Class I seat. 00:06:21.610 --> 00:06:26.089 Oh, 1922 is chaotic. Right. The notes show Senator 00:06:26.089 --> 00:06:29.610 Philander C. Knox dying in office. To fill the 00:06:29.610 --> 00:06:32.600 vacancy, William E. Crow is appointed. But then, 00:06:32.660 --> 00:06:35.399 tragically, William E. Crowe also dies. That 00:06:35.399 --> 00:06:38.240 is two senators dying in the span of a single 00:06:38.240 --> 00:06:41.839 term. In August of 1922, David A. Reed is appointed 00:06:41.839 --> 00:06:44.019 to the seat. I'm looking at the timeline, and 00:06:44.019 --> 00:06:46.220 it appears Reed ended up running in two separate 00:06:46.220 --> 00:06:48.699 elections on the exact same day. Yes, he did. 00:06:48.879 --> 00:06:51.240 How does a candidate run for the same seat twice 00:06:51.240 --> 00:06:53.980 simultaneously? It is a fascinating structural 00:06:53.980 --> 00:06:56.500 quirk of the system. Because of the timing of 00:06:56.500 --> 00:06:59.060 the vacancy, David A. Reed had to satisfy two 00:06:59.060 --> 00:07:01.040 different constitutional requirements. Okay, 00:07:01.100 --> 00:07:02.889 but what were they? First, there had to be a 00:07:02.889 --> 00:07:05.209 special election to officially finish out the 00:07:05.209 --> 00:07:07.250 remaining few months of the unexpired term that 00:07:07.250 --> 00:07:09.250 originally belonged to Knox. Got it. Second, 00:07:09.449 --> 00:07:12.129 there had to be a regular general election to 00:07:12.129 --> 00:07:13.970 determine who would hold the seat for the subsequent 00:07:13.970 --> 00:07:17.149 full six -year term. Because both of those election 00:07:17.149 --> 00:07:19.389 timelines converged on the same date in November 00:07:19.389 --> 00:07:23.069 1922, Reed had to run in both. Think about the 00:07:23.069 --> 00:07:25.449 confusion a voter would face looking at that 00:07:25.449 --> 00:07:28.620 ballot in 1922. You walk into the voting booth 00:07:28.620 --> 00:07:30.360 and you have to vote for the same candidate. 00:07:30.579 --> 00:07:33.000 On two different lines. For the exact same job 00:07:33.000 --> 00:07:35.459 on two different lines of the ballot. Just to 00:07:35.459 --> 00:07:38.199 satisfy the mechanical requirements of the staggering 00:07:38.199 --> 00:07:39.920 system we talked about earlier. It certainly 00:07:39.920 --> 00:07:42.339 tested the newly implemented direct voting apparatus. 00:07:43.160 --> 00:07:45.860 Reid ultimately won the special election to complete 00:07:45.860 --> 00:07:50.160 the short term ending in March 1923. And he concurrently 00:07:50.160 --> 00:07:52.779 won the general election for the full term starting 00:07:52.779 --> 00:07:56.579 in March 1923. And what's wild is that 1922 was. 00:07:56.680 --> 00:07:59.800 also a completely disrupted year for Pennsylvania's 00:07:59.800 --> 00:08:02.040 other Senate seat, the Class 3 seat. Right, the 00:08:02.040 --> 00:08:04.459 other side of the equation. The incumbent, Boyce 00:08:04.459 --> 00:08:08.319 Penrose, died in December of 1921. The governor 00:08:08.319 --> 00:08:10.920 appointed George W. Pepper to fill the vacancy, 00:08:11.079 --> 00:08:13.339 which meant Pepper also had to run in a special 00:08:13.339 --> 00:08:16.100 election in 1922 just to serve the remainder 00:08:16.100 --> 00:08:18.879 of Penrose's term. That means Pennsylvania voters 00:08:18.879 --> 00:08:21.660 were navigating a regular election and two completely 00:08:21.660 --> 00:08:23.620 separate special elections all at once. All in 00:08:23.620 --> 00:08:26.279 the same year. It really highlights the fragility 00:08:26.279 --> 00:08:29.459 of institutional continuity. The framers designed 00:08:29.459 --> 00:08:32.480 this elegant, staggered system to ensure stability, 00:08:32.940 --> 00:08:34.919 but they couldn't mathematically account for 00:08:34.919 --> 00:08:38.259 the unpredictable nature of human mortality disrupting 00:08:38.259 --> 00:08:40.019 the timeline. Which makes you wonder how the 00:08:40.019 --> 00:08:41.840 system handles disruptions that are entirely 00:08:41.840 --> 00:08:44.259 man -made. Oh, definitely. I'm looking at the 00:08:44.259 --> 00:08:47.419 data for the 1926 race for the Class 3 seat, 00:08:47.480 --> 00:08:50.220 and it involves a massive scandal. The Verre 00:08:50.220 --> 00:08:53.340 situation. Yeah. William S. Verre actually won 00:08:53.340 --> 00:08:56.240 the election. The notes indicate he beat his 00:08:56.240 --> 00:09:00.460 opponent, William B. Wilson by over 173 ,000 00:09:00.460 --> 00:09:03.059 votes. A solid margin. But the governor at the 00:09:03.059 --> 00:09:06.000 time, Gifford Pinchot, outright refused to certify 00:09:06.000 --> 00:09:08.519 the election results. What are the broader implications 00:09:08.519 --> 00:09:11.120 of a governor simply refusing to certify a statewide 00:09:11.120 --> 00:09:13.990 result? The implications are profound. Ver's 00:09:13.990 --> 00:09:16.470 victory was so heavily overshadowed by allegations 00:09:16.470 --> 00:09:19.210 of corruption and excessive campaign spending 00:09:19.210 --> 00:09:22.309 that Governor Pinchot essentially halted the 00:09:22.309 --> 00:09:24.090 constitutional machinery. He just stopped it 00:09:24.090 --> 00:09:27.090 in its tracks. As a result, Ver was never actually 00:09:27.090 --> 00:09:29.529 sworn into the United States Senate. He was kept 00:09:29.529 --> 00:09:31.789 in a state of political limbo until December 00:09:31.789 --> 00:09:35.250 of 1929, when the U .S. Senate formally unseated 00:09:35.250 --> 00:09:38.360 him. So based on that timeline, he won the election 00:09:38.360 --> 00:09:41.059 in November 1926, and the situation wasn't resolved 00:09:41.059 --> 00:09:44.460 until December 1929. Three full years. That means 00:09:44.460 --> 00:09:46.440 the state of Pennsylvania operated with only 00:09:46.440 --> 00:09:49.379 half of its Senate representation for three full 00:09:49.379 --> 00:09:51.879 years during the height of the Roaring Twenties. 00:09:51.899 --> 00:09:57.139 That is absolute gridlock. Precisely. industrially 00:09:57.139 --> 00:09:59.000 and economically significant as Pennsylvania 00:09:59.000 --> 00:10:01.179 to be shorthanded in the upper chamber for three 00:10:01.179 --> 00:10:04.200 years is a massive structural failure. How did 00:10:04.200 --> 00:10:06.919 it end? It finally ended with the governor appointing 00:10:06.919 --> 00:10:09.480 Joseph R. Grundy to fill the vacancy until the 00:10:09.480 --> 00:10:11.580 next election could be organized. It's a stark 00:10:11.580 --> 00:10:14.600 reminder of the human element. But the footnotes 00:10:14.600 --> 00:10:17.419 in this Wikipedia page also point to profound 00:10:17.419 --> 00:10:20.120 modern tragedies that forced the system to rapidly 00:10:20.120 --> 00:10:23.840 adapt. Yes. In April of 1991, the incumbent class 00:10:23.840 --> 00:10:27.460 one senator, John Heinz, died in a horrific midair 00:10:27.460 --> 00:10:30.019 collision between two aircraft. It was a tremendous 00:10:30.019 --> 00:10:33.139 shock. And from a procedural standpoint, the 00:10:33.139 --> 00:10:35.059 constitutional mechanics had to kick in immediately 00:10:35.059 --> 00:10:37.480 to ensure Pennsylvania retained its voice in 00:10:37.480 --> 00:10:39.659 Washington. The timeline didn't stop. Exactly. 00:10:39.899 --> 00:10:42.960 Governor Robert P. Casey stepped in. and appointed 00:10:42.960 --> 00:10:46.379 Democrat Harris Wofford in May of 1991 to fill 00:10:46.379 --> 00:10:48.860 the vacancy. And because of the 17th Amendment 00:10:48.860 --> 00:10:51.539 rules we discussed, Wofford couldn't just serve 00:10:51.539 --> 00:10:53.340 out the rest of the term automatically. He had 00:10:53.340 --> 00:10:55.799 to face the voters in a special election that 00:10:55.799 --> 00:10:58.539 November. The notes show he ran against Dick 00:10:58.539 --> 00:11:02.120 Thornburg and won with 55 .01 % of the vote. 00:11:02.480 --> 00:11:06.070 It shows how... Behind every single data point 00:11:06.070 --> 00:11:09.049 in this text, there are real, sometimes tragic 00:11:09.049 --> 00:11:12.070 events altering the course of the state's representation. 00:11:12.450 --> 00:11:14.929 This raises an important question about how political 00:11:14.929 --> 00:11:17.789 careers can take sudden turns, even without a 00:11:17.789 --> 00:11:20.769 tragedy or an electoral scandal. Sometimes the 00:11:20.769 --> 00:11:23.450 shockwave comes from inside the political machine 00:11:23.450 --> 00:11:25.870 itself. Right, like what we see in the data for 00:11:25.870 --> 00:11:29.309 2010. The Arlen Specter anomaly. Exactly. This 00:11:29.309 --> 00:11:32.070 is a fascinating anomaly in the class three seat 00:11:32.070 --> 00:11:34.669 involving Arlen Specter. Specter had served for 00:11:34.669 --> 00:11:37.789 decades. He was a fixture in Pennsylvania politics, 00:11:38.070 --> 00:11:40.289 consistently winning reelection as a Republican 00:11:40.289 --> 00:11:45.750 in 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998 and 2004. A very long 00:11:45.750 --> 00:11:49.529 run. But then in April 2009, he makes a monumental 00:11:49.529 --> 00:11:52.230 decision to change his party registration from 00:11:52.230 --> 00:11:55.210 Republican to Democratic. Can you give us a quick 00:11:55.210 --> 00:11:57.929 breakdown of why simply changing a letter next 00:11:57.929 --> 00:12:00.429 to your name forces such a massive hurdle for 00:12:00.429 --> 00:12:02.830 an incumbent? It comes down to the mechanics 00:12:02.830 --> 00:12:05.029 of the primary system versus the general election. 00:12:05.399 --> 00:12:07.779 A primary election is how a specific political 00:12:07.779 --> 00:12:10.480 party chooses who their official nominee will 00:12:10.480 --> 00:12:12.960 be. The general election is the final showdown 00:12:12.960 --> 00:12:14.799 between the nominees of the different parties. 00:12:15.019 --> 00:12:17.179 By switching his registration to Democratic, 00:12:17.500 --> 00:12:19.559 Specter could no longer rely on the Republican 00:12:19.559 --> 00:12:21.899 voters who had supported him for 30 years. That 00:12:21.899 --> 00:12:23.580 makes sense. He had to compete in a Democratic 00:12:23.580 --> 00:12:26.000 primary, effectively introducing himself to a 00:12:26.000 --> 00:12:28.179 completely new electorate to secure their party's 00:12:28.179 --> 00:12:31.299 nomination. And the domino effect of that single 00:12:31.299 --> 00:12:35.120 decision is remarkable. The data shows he ended 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:37.840 up losing that Democratic primary to Joe Sestak. 00:12:38.259 --> 00:12:40.860 So a sitting senator who had been in office for 00:12:40.860 --> 00:12:43.820 nearly 30 years didn't even make it to the general 00:12:43.820 --> 00:12:45.919 election ballot. And the irony of the situation 00:12:45.919 --> 00:12:48.639 deepens when you trace the data to the general 00:12:48.639 --> 00:12:51.480 election. After Sestak defeated Specter in the 00:12:51.480 --> 00:12:54.399 primary, Sestak went on to lose the general election 00:12:54.399 --> 00:12:57.259 to Pat Toomey. So Specter switches parties to 00:12:57.259 --> 00:12:59.580 try and survive politically, gets ousted by his 00:12:59.580 --> 00:13:01.720 new party's voters in the primary, and then... 00:13:01.929 --> 00:13:03.990 his old party ends up winning the seat back anyway. 00:13:04.309 --> 00:13:06.490 It really is an incredible sequence of events. 00:13:06.690 --> 00:13:08.549 That's wild. What's fascinating here is that 00:13:08.549 --> 00:13:10.769 when you synthesize all of these events, the 00:13:10.769 --> 00:13:13.850 simultaneous elections of 1922, the unseating 00:13:13.850 --> 00:13:17.129 of a senator in 1926, the mid -air tragedy of 00:13:17.129 --> 00:13:20.710 1991, the party swap of 2010, it paints a picture 00:13:20.710 --> 00:13:22.529 of a political system that is constantly absorbing 00:13:22.529 --> 00:13:25.129 shocks. Constantly adapting. Right. The foundational 00:13:25.129 --> 00:13:28.220 rules are rigid. Two senators, staggered terms, 00:13:28.360 --> 00:13:30.620 direct elections. But the reality of executing 00:13:30.620 --> 00:13:33.179 those rules on the ground is messy, unpredictable 00:13:33.179 --> 00:13:36.159 and deeply human. OK, let's unpack this from 00:13:36.159 --> 00:13:38.639 a different angle, because the stories of how 00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:41.000 these seats are won and lost are incredible. 00:13:41.080 --> 00:13:44.220 But the actual voting data, the numerical margins 00:13:44.220 --> 00:13:47.139 tell an equally compelling story about how the 00:13:47.139 --> 00:13:49.000 state's electorate has evolved over the last 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:51.779 century. The data tells a story all on its own. 00:13:51.860 --> 00:13:53.960 I'm looking at the early 20th century, and it 00:13:53.960 --> 00:13:55.500 doesn't look like these races were particularly 00:13:55.500 --> 00:13:58.960 close. What did the data look like back then? 00:13:59.139 --> 00:14:01.559 The historical margins are where you really see 00:14:01.559 --> 00:14:03.679 the tectonic plates of public opinion shifting. 00:14:04.240 --> 00:14:06.919 In the early 20th century, the source data shows 00:14:06.919 --> 00:14:10.440 an era of landslide victories. Just massive blowouts. 00:14:10.440 --> 00:14:13.639 Yes. Let's revisit David A. Reed in that logistically 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:17.200 confusing year of 1922. In his special election, 00:14:17.500 --> 00:14:21.120 the data shows he won with 86 .15 % of the popular 00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:24.740 vote. Wow. He secured over 860 ,000 votes, while 00:14:24.740 --> 00:14:26.940 all other candidates combined barely managed 00:14:26.940 --> 00:14:29.820 138 ,000. It was a complete runaway. That is 00:14:29.820 --> 00:14:32.519 a staggering level of statewide dominance. And 00:14:32.519 --> 00:14:34.559 it wasn't just a one -off anomaly for Reid, right? 00:14:34.740 --> 00:14:37.960 Not at all. You see a similarly lopsided result 00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:40.779 in the 1930 special election for the class three 00:14:40.779 --> 00:14:44.870 seat. James J. Davis won that race with 71 .54 00:14:44.870 --> 00:14:47.529 % of the vote against Cedric Kistler, who only 00:14:47.529 --> 00:14:51.009 managed 25 .61%. That equates to a victory margin 00:14:51.009 --> 00:14:55.590 of 45 .93%. Davis won by almost a million individual 00:14:55.590 --> 00:14:59.929 votes. In that specific era, one political faction 00:14:59.929 --> 00:15:02.389 was clearly dominating the statewide sentiment. 00:15:02.720 --> 00:15:04.779 But when we fast forward to the modern era, that 00:15:04.779 --> 00:15:07.200 dominance completely evaporates. It's gone. The 00:15:07.200 --> 00:15:08.639 narrative shifts from a state of comfortable 00:15:08.639 --> 00:15:10.779 landslides to a hyper competitive battleground 00:15:10.779 --> 00:15:13.559 where every single precinct is fiercely contested. 00:15:13.960 --> 00:15:16.340 I know the recent races are tighter, but what 00:15:16.340 --> 00:15:18.840 do the modern numbers actually show? The contracts 00:15:18.840 --> 00:15:20.860 is quite jarring. You go from victory margins 00:15:20.860 --> 00:15:23.940 of nearly 46 percent down to races decided by 00:15:23.940 --> 00:15:26.299 fractions of a single percentage point. Fractions? 00:15:26.340 --> 00:15:29.340 Yes. In the 2016 Class 3 race, Pat Toomey defeated 00:15:29.340 --> 00:15:32.179 Kathleen McGinty by a margin of just 1 .43 percent. 00:15:32.360 --> 00:15:35.220 At nearly 6 million total votes cast statewide, 00:15:35.539 --> 00:15:38.720 the numerical difference was only 86 ,690 votes. 00:15:38.860 --> 00:15:41.019 That is incredibly tight for a state with such 00:15:41.019 --> 00:15:43.320 a massive population. But the data shows it gets 00:15:43.320 --> 00:15:45.830 even tighter from there. It does. In the 2022 00:15:45.830 --> 00:15:48.789 Class 3 race, John Stetterman defeated Mehmet 00:15:48.789 --> 00:15:52.389 Oz by a margin of 4 .04%, which was a difference 00:15:52.389 --> 00:15:56.649 of 208 ,334 votes. Still a remarkably close race 00:15:56.649 --> 00:15:59.190 by historical standards. Absolutely. But it merely 00:15:59.190 --> 00:16:01.289 sets the stage for the raw mathematics of the 00:16:01.289 --> 00:16:04.409 Class 1 race in 2024. The 2024 race. This is 00:16:04.409 --> 00:16:06.190 the one that really stands out in the data set. 00:16:06.330 --> 00:16:08.269 You have Dave McCormick going up against the 00:16:08.269 --> 00:16:11.309 longtime incumbent Bob Casey Jr. What were the 00:16:11.309 --> 00:16:13.649 final vote tallies from the source for that? 00:16:13.799 --> 00:16:16.480 specific election. The final numbers are an absolute 00:16:16.480 --> 00:16:19.200 statistical nail biter. Dave McCormick received 00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:26.139 3 ,399 ,295 votes. Bob Casey Jr. received 3 ,384 00:16:26.139 --> 00:16:28.879 ,180 votes. Let me do the math on that. That 00:16:28.879 --> 00:16:32.259 is a difference of exactly 15 ,115 votes. Yes. 00:16:32.399 --> 00:16:35.240 Out of nearly 6 .8 million total votes cast across 00:16:35.240 --> 00:16:38.039 all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, the entire race 00:16:38.039 --> 00:16:42.580 was decided by a margin of 0 .22%. When a statewide 00:16:42.580 --> 00:16:45.120 margin is that microscopic, there is zero room 00:16:45.120 --> 00:16:47.600 for error for either campaign. It mathematically 00:16:47.600 --> 00:16:49.500 demonstrates that the state's electorate is almost 00:16:49.500 --> 00:16:51.360 perfectly fractured down the middle in terms 00:16:51.360 --> 00:16:53.039 of political sentiment. It's basically a coin 00:16:53.039 --> 00:16:56.220 flip. 15 ,000 votes spread across a state that 00:16:56.220 --> 00:16:59.320 large is roughly equivalent to a small town's 00:16:59.320 --> 00:17:01.779 population making the ultimate decision. So what 00:17:01.779 --> 00:17:03.460 does this all mean? Well, I think it speaks directly 00:17:03.460 --> 00:17:06.039 to you, the listener. Because we all hear that 00:17:06.039 --> 00:17:08.759 old cliche, right? Every vote counts. And it 00:17:08.759 --> 00:17:12.140 is so easy to get cynical. It is easy to think 00:17:12.140 --> 00:17:14.619 that in a state with nearly 13 million residents, 00:17:15.000 --> 00:17:18.539 your one single ballot dropping into a box couldn't 00:17:18.539 --> 00:17:20.480 possibly matter in the grand scheme of things. 00:17:20.579 --> 00:17:22.539 It's a very common feeling. But this historical 00:17:22.539 --> 00:17:25.180 data proves, mathematically, that it absolutely 00:17:25.180 --> 00:17:29.539 does. A margin of .22 % means that a modern U 00:17:29.539 --> 00:17:32.029 .S. Senate seat a seat that holds immense power 00:17:32.029 --> 00:17:34.549 over federal law, judicial confirmations, and 00:17:34.549 --> 00:17:37.250 international treaties, was literally decided 00:17:37.250 --> 00:17:39.910 by handfuls of voters scattered across local 00:17:39.910 --> 00:17:42.089 neighborhoods. If a few thousand people in a 00:17:42.089 --> 00:17:44.369 few towns decided to stay home because the weather 00:17:44.369 --> 00:17:47.309 was bad, the entire outcome changes. Exactly. 00:17:47.569 --> 00:17:50.250 It completely recontextualizes the power of the 00:17:50.250 --> 00:17:53.049 individual voter. When James J. Davis was winning 00:17:53.049 --> 00:17:56.029 by nearly a million votes in 1930, an individual 00:17:56.029 --> 00:17:57.930 vote might have felt like a drop in the ocean. 00:17:58.150 --> 00:18:02.009 But a 15 ,000 vote difference in 2024, that is 00:18:02.009 --> 00:18:04.410 less than the seating capacity of a minor league 00:18:04.410 --> 00:18:07.289 baseball stadium. It represents a fundamentally 00:18:07.289 --> 00:18:10.329 different razor's edge political reality. It 00:18:10.329 --> 00:18:12.660 really is a completely different landscape. So 00:18:12.660 --> 00:18:14.940 to quickly recap the journey we've taken through 00:18:14.940 --> 00:18:16.900 this single Wikipedia page today. We covered 00:18:16.900 --> 00:18:18.960 a lot of ground. We started with the foundational 00:18:18.960 --> 00:18:21.680 blueprint, the constitutional mechanics of the 00:18:21.680 --> 00:18:24.279 two Senate seats, the stabilizing design of the 00:18:24.279 --> 00:18:27.039 staggered six -year terms, and that monumental 00:18:27.039 --> 00:18:29.880 shift brought by the 17th Amendment that handed 00:18:29.880 --> 00:18:31.740 the power of the vote directly to the people. 00:18:31.900 --> 00:18:34.339 And then we explored how the human element continuously 00:18:34.339 --> 00:18:37.079 disrupts that blueprint. Right. We looked at 00:18:37.079 --> 00:18:39.019 the logistical puzzle of double elections in 00:18:39.019 --> 00:18:42.410 1922. the staggering three -year gridlock caused 00:18:42.410 --> 00:18:44.809 by a governor refusing to certify a scandalous 00:18:44.809 --> 00:18:47.990 election in 1926, the tragic loss of Senator 00:18:47.990 --> 00:18:51.829 Hines requiring a rapid transition in 1991, and 00:18:51.829 --> 00:18:54.369 the unpredictable internal machine politics of 00:18:54.369 --> 00:18:57.960 Arlen Specter's party swap in 2010. And finally, 00:18:58.059 --> 00:19:00.559 we track the evolution of the voting data itself. 00:19:00.900 --> 00:19:03.940 We watched a state transform from an era of 45 00:19:03.940 --> 00:19:07.720 % blowout landslides in the 1920s and 30s into 00:19:07.720 --> 00:19:10.559 a modern, hyper -competitive battleground where 00:19:10.559 --> 00:19:13.839 a seat is won by an incredibly fragile 0 .22 00:19:13.839 --> 00:19:17.140 % margin. It is a masterclass in how raw data 00:19:17.140 --> 00:19:19.740 can map out a profoundly dramatic story about 00:19:19.740 --> 00:19:23.319 how our society has changed. It really is. If 00:19:23.319 --> 00:19:25.279 I can, I want to leave you with a final thought 00:19:25.279 --> 00:19:27.680 to mull over, building directly on the history 00:19:27.680 --> 00:19:29.940 we just discussed. Oh, please do. We learned 00:19:29.940 --> 00:19:32.339 earlier that the 17th Amendment changed everything 00:19:32.339 --> 00:19:36.500 to a direct popular vote in 1913. Imagine for 00:19:36.500 --> 00:19:38.579 a moment an alternate reality where that amendment 00:19:38.579 --> 00:19:40.779 had never passed. Okay, I'm picturing it. How 00:19:40.779 --> 00:19:42.700 would a politically fractured, hyper -competitive 00:19:42.700 --> 00:19:45.740 state like modern Pennsylvania handle a 0 .22 00:19:45.740 --> 00:19:48.700 % division of public sentiment today if the power 00:19:48.700 --> 00:19:51.359 to choose the senator still rested entirely in 00:19:51.359 --> 00:19:53.569 the hands of the state legislature? Think about 00:19:53.569 --> 00:19:56.609 it. How much backroom bargaining, pressure, and 00:19:56.609 --> 00:20:00.450 absolute institutional strain would a 15 ,000 00:20:00.450 --> 00:20:03.250 vote public margin trigger behind closed doors 00:20:03.250 --> 00:20:05.890 in Harrisburg today? If the state's population 00:20:05.890 --> 00:20:09.089 is that evenly split, the legislative fight to 00:20:09.089 --> 00:20:11.809 appoint a single senator would be truly unprecedented. 00:20:12.250 --> 00:20:14.890 That is a fascinating alternate reality to picture. 00:20:15.029 --> 00:20:17.289 The tension inside that state capitol would be 00:20:17.289 --> 00:20:20.369 off the charts. Well, thank you so much for joining 00:20:20.369 --> 00:20:22.930 us on this custom -tailored deep dive. We took 00:20:22.930 --> 00:20:25.029 a simple list of election returns and uncovered 00:20:25.029 --> 00:20:27.210 over a century of constitutional architecture, 00:20:27.690 --> 00:20:30.509 unexpected human anomalies, and statistical nail 00:20:30.509 --> 00:20:32.089 biters. Thanks for coming along for the ride. 00:20:32.250 --> 00:20:34.349 We hope you enjoy the exploration, and we wish 00:20:34.349 --> 00:20:36.089 you well in your ongoing journey of learning. 00:20:36.309 --> 00:20:38.630 Keep asking questions, keep looking past the 00:20:38.630 --> 00:20:40.410 surface data, and we'll catch you on the next 00:20:40.410 --> 00:20:40.910 deep dive.