WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.540 Welcome back. We're just so glad you could join 00:00:02.540 --> 00:00:04.500 us today. Yeah, really glad to be here with you. 00:00:04.719 --> 00:00:08.019 Because, well, when you think of a thrilling 00:00:08.019 --> 00:00:11.599 edge -of -your -seat read, a massive data -heavy 00:00:11.599 --> 00:00:14.599 Wikipedia table probably isn't the first thing 00:00:14.599 --> 00:00:16.079 that jumps to mind, right? No, definitely not. 00:00:16.379 --> 00:00:19.199 Usually people run the other way. Exactly. But 00:00:19.199 --> 00:00:22.559 for you, our favorite learner, we've got something 00:00:22.559 --> 00:00:25.179 special today. We really do. We're looking at 00:00:25.179 --> 00:00:27.440 a document that... You know, on the surface, 00:00:27.640 --> 00:00:30.219 it's just rows and columns. It's the complete 00:00:30.219 --> 00:00:32.439 list of United States senators from New York. 00:00:32.500 --> 00:00:34.420 And it goes all the way back. All the way back 00:00:34.420 --> 00:00:38.340 to the very first Congress in 1789, right up 00:00:38.340 --> 00:00:40.280 to the current delegation today. It's just a 00:00:40.280 --> 00:00:43.259 remarkable piece of documentation. And while 00:00:43.259 --> 00:00:46.420 it might masquerade as this dry administrative 00:00:46.420 --> 00:00:49.460 record, tracking these dates, the names, the 00:00:49.460 --> 00:00:51.340 footnotes. The footnotes are wild. They really 00:00:51.340 --> 00:00:54.420 are. It reveals a deeply human ledger. I mean, 00:00:54.420 --> 00:00:57.100 it is a chronicle of political evolution, fierce 00:00:57.100 --> 00:01:00.320 ambition, sudden tragedies, and really the fundamental 00:01:00.320 --> 00:01:02.539 mechanics of how power is transferred in this 00:01:02.539 --> 00:01:05.980 country. OK, let's unpack this. But before we 00:01:05.980 --> 00:01:08.790 jump into the timeline. I think we need to establish 00:01:08.790 --> 00:01:12.230 the ground rules for our deep dive today. Definitely. 00:01:12.250 --> 00:01:14.629 A crucial disclaimer here. Right. Because this 00:01:14.629 --> 00:01:16.989 is a history of politicians, which means we are 00:01:16.989 --> 00:01:18.849 inevitably going to be talking about political 00:01:18.849 --> 00:01:20.989 parties. You can't avoid it. You can't. Yeah. 00:01:21.069 --> 00:01:23.209 The source text mentions Democrats, Republicans, 00:01:23.590 --> 00:01:26.730 conservatives, Whigs, and a slew of other factions 00:01:26.730 --> 00:01:29.859 that, frankly. Don't even exist anymore. Completely 00:01:29.859 --> 00:01:33.540 gone. So we want to explicitly remind you of 00:01:33.540 --> 00:01:36.140 our golden rule for this show. We are absolutely 00:01:36.140 --> 00:01:38.439 not taking any sides here. None at all. We are 00:01:38.439 --> 00:01:41.739 simply acting as your impartial guides to the 00:01:41.739 --> 00:01:44.200 historical data provided in this text. Exactly. 00:01:44.200 --> 00:01:46.719 We are analyzing the mechanics of the system 00:01:46.719 --> 00:01:49.599 and the historical trajectory completely neutral. 00:01:49.760 --> 00:01:51.920 Just following the data. Right. And we'll be 00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:54.340 tracing this timeline chronologically, starting 00:01:54.340 --> 00:01:58.439 with the surprisingly chaotic early days of the 00:01:58.439 --> 00:02:01.120 Senate. Very chaotic. Then watching the bizarre 00:02:01.120 --> 00:02:03.799 evolution of political party labels, examining 00:02:03.799 --> 00:02:06.620 the intense vulnerabilities and deadlocks that 00:02:06.620 --> 00:02:09.780 left the office completely vacant. Which is fascinating. 00:02:09.860 --> 00:02:12.860 It really is. And finally arriving at the highly 00:02:12.860 --> 00:02:15.699 structured modern day delegation we see now. 00:02:15.879 --> 00:02:18.599 We'll start right at the beginning. 1789. Let's 00:02:18.599 --> 00:02:20.500 do it. Because the very first thing that. jumps 00:02:20.500 --> 00:02:22.740 off the page when you look at this early era 00:02:22.740 --> 00:02:25.939 is a shocking turnover rate. It's jarring. It 00:02:25.939 --> 00:02:28.219 really is. When we think of U .S. senators today, 00:02:28.300 --> 00:02:30.780 we usually think of individuals who spent decades 00:02:30.780 --> 00:02:32.659 in Washington, right? Yeah. Building influence, 00:02:32.900 --> 00:02:36.319 seniority. Exactly. Yeah. But from 1789 through 00:02:36.319 --> 00:02:39.439 the mid -1800s, this delegation was essentially 00:02:39.439 --> 00:02:42.620 a revolving door. A revolving door is the perfect 00:02:42.620 --> 00:02:45.259 way to describe it. The sheer volume of the word 00:02:45.259 --> 00:02:48.199 resigned. in the electoral history column is 00:02:48.199 --> 00:02:50.979 just staggering. It paints a picture of a vastly 00:02:50.979 --> 00:02:53.620 different political landscape. Right. If we connect 00:02:53.620 --> 00:02:55.479 this to the bigger picture, it reveals something 00:02:55.479 --> 00:02:58.060 fundamental about how early American government 00:02:58.060 --> 00:03:01.340 was viewed. How so? Well, today, a seat in the 00:03:01.340 --> 00:03:03.900 U .S. Senate is widely considered the pinnacle 00:03:03.900 --> 00:03:06.620 of a political career. Sure. But this pattern 00:03:06.620 --> 00:03:08.780 of departure shows that in the early republic, 00:03:09.080 --> 00:03:11.759 the Senate was frequently treated as a mere stepping 00:03:11.759 --> 00:03:14.259 stone. See, I'd actually push back on the idea 00:03:14.259 --> 00:03:17.110 that they saw. as just a stepping stone to something 00:03:17.110 --> 00:03:19.969 higher. Okay. Why is that? When you look at the 00:03:19.969 --> 00:03:22.069 specific jobs they were leaving the Senate to 00:03:22.069 --> 00:03:24.610 take, it almost feels like the Senate was viewed 00:03:24.610 --> 00:03:28.210 as a lesser, almost temporary gig. Interesting. 00:03:28.349 --> 00:03:30.289 Give me an example from the text. Okay. I'm looking 00:03:30.289 --> 00:03:33.189 at John Sloss Hobart. Right. Elected in early 00:03:33.189 --> 00:03:37.289 1798. Exactly. He serves for literally a few 00:03:37.289 --> 00:03:40.270 months and then resigns. To do what? To become 00:03:40.270 --> 00:03:42.330 a federal judge. Okay. A lifetime appointment. 00:03:42.409 --> 00:03:43.969 That makes some sense. Sure. But then you have 00:03:43.969 --> 00:03:47.750 Rufus King. He's elected in 1789, re -elected, 00:03:47.750 --> 00:03:50.330 and then he just resigns to become the U .S. 00:03:50.330 --> 00:03:52.810 minister to Great Britain. Oh, right. And John 00:03:52.810 --> 00:03:55.389 Armstrong Jr. does the exact same thing a few 00:03:55.389 --> 00:03:57.889 years later to become the U .S. minister to France. 00:03:58.129 --> 00:04:00.530 Right. But those diplomatic posts were incredibly 00:04:00.530 --> 00:04:02.789 vital at the time. You think so? Absolutely. 00:04:03.449 --> 00:04:05.830 Arguably more critical to the survival of the 00:04:05.830 --> 00:04:08.270 young nation than casting a vote in a developing 00:04:08.270 --> 00:04:11.310 legislative body. That's a fair point. But your 00:04:11.310 --> 00:04:13.270 point about it being a lesser gig becomes even 00:04:13.270 --> 00:04:15.949 more apparent when you look at the domestic appointments 00:04:15.949 --> 00:04:18.029 in the data. Oh, you're talking about the port. 00:04:18.310 --> 00:04:20.680 Yes. That's the one that really caught my eye. 00:04:20.740 --> 00:04:23.279 James Watson. Right. He gets elected to the Senate 00:04:23.279 --> 00:04:27.540 in August of 1798. Okay. By March of 1800, he 00:04:27.540 --> 00:04:30.420 resigns. And his reason. It's right there in 00:04:30.420 --> 00:04:33.060 the footnotes. He leaves to become the naval 00:04:33.060 --> 00:04:36.120 officer of the Port of New York. It sounds crazy 00:04:36.120 --> 00:04:39.519 today. It does. You are leaving the United States 00:04:39.519 --> 00:04:42.459 Senate to go manage a port. Why would anyone 00:04:42.459 --> 00:04:45.550 make that trade today? Well, they wouldn't. But 00:04:45.550 --> 00:04:48.490 in 1800, managing the Port of New York meant 00:04:48.490 --> 00:04:50.870 you were sitting at the absolute epicenter of 00:04:50.870 --> 00:04:52.649 American commerce. And the federal revenue, I 00:04:52.649 --> 00:04:55.649 assume. Exactly. Tariffs and customs were the 00:04:55.649 --> 00:04:58.470 lifeblood of the early economy. Wow. So that 00:04:58.470 --> 00:05:01.449 position likely offered far more immediate, tangible 00:05:01.449 --> 00:05:03.970 power and perhaps personal financial stability 00:05:03.970 --> 00:05:06.970 than sitting in a nascent federal legislature. 00:05:07.350 --> 00:05:09.829 That was still trying to figure out its own procedural 00:05:09.829 --> 00:05:13.699 rules. Right. And a swampy, half -built capital 00:05:13.699 --> 00:05:17.160 city. It really highlights a time when federal 00:05:17.160 --> 00:05:20.399 legislative power was highly decentralized. And 00:05:20.399 --> 00:05:22.600 the real influence was often kept at the local 00:05:22.600 --> 00:05:25.439 ports and state capitals. Yes. That state -level 00:05:25.439 --> 00:05:28.800 gravity is incredibly obvious when you look at 00:05:28.800 --> 00:05:31.100 the gubernatorial data in the table. The governors. 00:05:31.439 --> 00:05:34.500 Yeah. Martin Van Buren. Right. William L. Marcy. 00:05:35.139 --> 00:05:38.600 Silas Wright Jr. Yeah. The data shows... All 00:05:38.600 --> 00:05:40.560 of them resigned their U .S. Senate seats to 00:05:40.560 --> 00:05:42.860 become the governor of New York. They willingly 00:05:42.860 --> 00:05:45.699 gave up a federal position to go run their home 00:05:45.699 --> 00:05:48.459 state. Which tells us that executive power at 00:05:48.459 --> 00:05:50.779 the state level was simply viewed as more significant. 00:05:51.079 --> 00:05:53.100 Or at least more immediately impactful on the 00:05:53.100 --> 00:05:55.660 daily lives of citizens. Exactly. You had to 00:05:55.660 --> 00:05:57.879 give up your Senate seat to go be governor, and 00:05:57.879 --> 00:06:00.300 they gladly made that trade. Because the federal 00:06:00.300 --> 00:06:02.639 government was a remote concept for many. Right. 00:06:02.899 --> 00:06:06.160 The state was where the real action was. So if 00:06:06.160 --> 00:06:08.860 the job itself was considered that fluid, it 00:06:08.860 --> 00:06:10.740 makes sense that the political factions trying 00:06:10.740 --> 00:06:12.959 to control it were just as unstable. Oh, absolutely. 00:06:13.199 --> 00:06:16.339 The data shows that the early party labels were 00:06:16.339 --> 00:06:19.639 completely chaotic. Highly experimental. Look 00:06:19.639 --> 00:06:22.240 at the first two senators, Philip Schuyler and 00:06:22.240 --> 00:06:24.860 Aaron Burr. Right. They aren't listed as Republicans 00:06:24.860 --> 00:06:27.519 or Democrats. They are listed as prey administration 00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:31.319 and anti -administration. It's a purely binary 00:06:31.319 --> 00:06:34.660 system. Right. You were defined entirely by whether 00:06:34.660 --> 00:06:36.639 you supported the current executive government 00:06:36.639 --> 00:06:39.060 or opposed it. There wasn't even a pretense of 00:06:39.060 --> 00:06:41.500 a sprawling multi -issue party platform yet. 00:06:41.560 --> 00:06:44.220 No, it was just, are you with the president or 00:06:44.220 --> 00:06:46.600 against him? And as you scroll down the decades 00:06:46.600 --> 00:06:49.379 in this table, you watch the terminology morph 00:06:49.379 --> 00:06:52.029 in real time. You see the federalist label emerge. 00:06:52.310 --> 00:06:54.529 Right. Then Democratic, Republican. Yeah. By 00:06:54.529 --> 00:06:58.089 the late 1820s and 1830s, the data introduces 00:06:58.089 --> 00:07:01.269 the Jacksonian label. Yes. For senators like 00:07:01.269 --> 00:07:03.810 Charles E. Dudley and Nathaniel P. Tallmadge. 00:07:03.810 --> 00:07:05.910 They literally branded their political affiliation 00:07:05.910 --> 00:07:07.930 after a single prominent figure, Andrew Jackson. 00:07:08.069 --> 00:07:10.490 It feels less like a modern political party and 00:07:10.490 --> 00:07:12.990 more like a massive personality cult acting as 00:07:12.990 --> 00:07:15.529 a governing coalition. It perfectly illustrates 00:07:15.529 --> 00:07:18.149 the experimental nature of American political 00:07:18.149 --> 00:07:20.990 identity during that era. They were constantly 00:07:20.990 --> 00:07:23.990 recalibrating how to group themselves structurally 00:07:23.990 --> 00:07:26.709 to maintain power. Definitely. But here's where 00:07:26.709 --> 00:07:29.470 it gets really interesting, though. OK. It's 00:07:29.470 --> 00:07:32.050 one thing for party platforms to evolve over 00:07:32.050 --> 00:07:35.470 generations. It's another thing entirely for 00:07:35.470 --> 00:07:38.470 a sitting senator to change parties right in 00:07:38.470 --> 00:07:40.769 the middle of their career. Oh, the party switchers. 00:07:40.870 --> 00:07:44.439 Yes. The footnotes in this table expose some 00:07:44.439 --> 00:07:47.079 serious midstream political maneuvering. Give 00:07:47.079 --> 00:07:49.620 the listener an example. Take William H. Seward, 00:07:49.720 --> 00:07:53.939 for example. He is reelected in 1855 as a member 00:07:53.939 --> 00:07:56.579 of the Whig Party. Right. But a footnote casually 00:07:56.579 --> 00:07:58.740 mentions he became a Republican shortly thereafter. 00:07:59.100 --> 00:08:01.459 Just swapped. He just swapped his entire political 00:08:01.459 --> 00:08:03.920 identity while holding the seat. That kind of 00:08:03.920 --> 00:08:07.439 fluidity points to a broader trend. When a major 00:08:07.439 --> 00:08:09.740 political coalition like the Whigs begins to 00:08:09.740 --> 00:08:12.379 collapse, the politicians don't necessarily leave 00:08:12.379 --> 00:08:14.839 with it. Right. They simply rebrand to survive 00:08:14.839 --> 00:08:17.839 in the new ecosystem. Revive in advance. Exactly. 00:08:17.879 --> 00:08:20.459 And we shouldn't assume that kind of volatility 00:08:20.459 --> 00:08:22.800 was confined to the 19th century. Oh, definitely 00:08:22.800 --> 00:08:25.819 not. Look at James L. Buckley's run in the 1970s. 00:08:25.819 --> 00:08:28.660 That is a wild timeline. It is. He is elected 00:08:28.660 --> 00:08:31.240 in 1970 as a member of the Conservative Party. 00:08:31.360 --> 00:08:35.309 OK. Six years later. The text notes he changes 00:08:35.309 --> 00:08:37.789 parties to become a Republican. Right. And then 00:08:37.789 --> 00:08:41.129 he ultimately loses his reelection bid running 00:08:41.129 --> 00:08:43.490 under the Liberal Party banner. So conservative 00:08:43.490 --> 00:08:46.669 to Republican to liberal. All within a single 00:08:46.669 --> 00:08:49.149 decade. It's a staggering individual trajectory. 00:08:49.549 --> 00:08:52.070 It really is. But it reflects the deeply fractured, 00:08:52.090 --> 00:08:55.129 complex political machine of New York. A politician 00:08:55.129 --> 00:08:57.509 like Buckley was navigating shifting alliances, 00:08:57.690 --> 00:09:00.429 trying to find the exact right lever to pull 00:09:00.429 --> 00:09:02.889 to stay in office. Speaking of levers of power. 00:09:03.070 --> 00:09:05.009 Yeah. I want to draw your attention back to the 00:09:05.009 --> 00:09:08.429 1800s to a highly specific footnote regarding 00:09:08.429 --> 00:09:11.889 Edwin D. Morgan in 1875. Oh, the caucus vote. 00:09:12.080 --> 00:09:14.919 breakdown. Yes. This might be my favorite data 00:09:14.919 --> 00:09:17.779 point in the entire document. It is incredibly 00:09:17.779 --> 00:09:19.759 revealing. Walk us through it. So the source 00:09:19.759 --> 00:09:22.820 material cites a Rochester newspaper from January 00:09:22.820 --> 00:09:26.200 1875. Right. And it details the exact breakdown 00:09:26.200 --> 00:09:28.639 of the Republican caucus vote to nominate their 00:09:28.639 --> 00:09:31.779 candidate for the Senate. The tally reads Morgan 00:09:31.779 --> 00:09:37.139 40, Dix 13, Wheeler 2, Fenton 2, Blank 5. The 00:09:37.139 --> 00:09:40.320 five blank votes. Yes. That is such a cinematic 00:09:40.320 --> 00:09:42.820 detail. Think about what that represents in the 00:09:42.820 --> 00:09:45.379 context of the era. Before the 17th Amendment 00:09:45.379 --> 00:09:47.320 established the popular election of senators, 00:09:47.580 --> 00:09:50.059 these seats were chosen by state legislature. 00:09:50.299 --> 00:09:52.480 Right. The voters weren't directly picking these 00:09:52.480 --> 00:09:55.100 senators. Exactly. So this footnote captures 00:09:55.100 --> 00:09:58.019 the intense backroom brokering process of that 00:09:58.019 --> 00:10:01.779 system. 40 votes for Morgan, 13 for Dix, a handful 00:10:01.779 --> 00:10:04.259 for others. But those five blank votes are the 00:10:04.259 --> 00:10:07.179 most fascinating part of the data. Why cast a 00:10:07.179 --> 00:10:09.600 blank ballot in a room where everyone is openly 00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:12.340 tallying influence? It's pure leverage. Really? 00:10:12.460 --> 00:10:15.000 Oh, yeah. A blank ballot in a smoke -filled room 00:10:15.000 --> 00:10:17.379 is a profound political statement. Like what? 00:10:17.600 --> 00:10:19.740 It might represent whole mouths waiting for a 00:10:19.740 --> 00:10:21.940 specific patronage promise. Oh, holding out for 00:10:21.940 --> 00:10:24.419 a better deal. Right. It might be cowardice politicians 00:10:24.419 --> 00:10:27.460 unwilling to publicly alienate a powerful faction 00:10:27.460 --> 00:10:30.120 by committing to a name. That makes sense. Or 00:10:30.120 --> 00:10:33.059 it could be a deliberate stall tactic to force 00:10:33.059 --> 00:10:36.710 a brokered convention. What this tiny footnote 00:10:36.710 --> 00:10:39.750 exposes is that early senators weren't accountable 00:10:39.750 --> 00:10:42.009 to millions of voters. They were accountable 00:10:42.009 --> 00:10:44.929 to a few dozen men in a room holding blank pieces 00:10:44.929 --> 00:10:47.669 of paper. Exactly. Which completely explains 00:10:47.669 --> 00:10:49.370 the high turnover rate we talked about earlier. 00:10:49.529 --> 00:10:52.340 How so? If your entire job depends on keeping 00:10:52.340 --> 00:10:55.919 a fragile coalition of 60 local politicians happy, 00:10:56.059 --> 00:10:58.580 the moment that coalition fractures, you're out. 00:10:58.700 --> 00:11:01.159 Yeah, you lose the backing. And the data shows 00:11:01.159 --> 00:11:03.960 us exactly what happens when those backroom deals 00:11:03.960 --> 00:11:06.460 completely break down. The system stalls entirely. 00:11:06.879 --> 00:11:09.139 Right. You look at the columns for the early 00:11:09.139 --> 00:11:11.440 1800s and you start seeing this chilling phrase. 00:11:12.039 --> 00:11:14.460 Legislature failed to elect. Yes, it happens 00:11:14.460 --> 00:11:17.740 in 1813. It happens again in 1825. What's fascinating 00:11:17.740 --> 00:11:20.019 here is the sheer duration of the consequences. 00:11:20.440 --> 00:11:23.080 Right. Look at 1819. In 1819, the table shows 00:11:23.080 --> 00:11:25.679 a vacancy stretching from March 4th all the way 00:11:25.679 --> 00:11:29.200 to January 25th of 1820. That is nearly a full 00:11:29.200 --> 00:11:31.440 year where one of New York's two seats in the 00:11:31.440 --> 00:11:33.940 United States Senate was simply left empty. Just 00:11:33.940 --> 00:11:36.379 completely vacant because the state legislature 00:11:36.379 --> 00:11:38.879 couldn't cut a deal. It's mind boggling today. 00:11:39.059 --> 00:11:41.759 It highlights a massive Democratic deficit in 00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:45.000 the early republic's design. The system was incredibly 00:11:45.000 --> 00:11:47.799 fragile. Right. If the state level politicians 00:11:47.799 --> 00:11:50.759 deadlocked, if those guys with the blank ballots 00:11:50.759 --> 00:11:54.120 refused to cave, the state simply lost half of 00:11:54.120 --> 00:11:56.139 its representation in the upper chamber of the 00:11:56.139 --> 00:11:58.220 federal government. The mechanics of democracy 00:11:58.220 --> 00:12:01.659 didn't just bend, they broke. They absolutely 00:12:01.659 --> 00:12:04.240 broke. And political gridlock wasn't the only 00:12:04.240 --> 00:12:07.100 thing leaving these seats empty. No, not at all. 00:12:07.240 --> 00:12:09.419 As we move into the 20th century, the document 00:12:09.419 --> 00:12:12.779 chronicles some profound human tragedies that 00:12:12.779 --> 00:12:15.559 threw the entire delegation into chaos. Yeah, 00:12:15.679 --> 00:12:18.059 the mid -century transition. The timeline from 00:12:18.059 --> 00:12:20.940 1949 is almost difficult to track because of 00:12:20.940 --> 00:12:23.500 how fast the seat changes hands. The transition 00:12:23.500 --> 00:12:26.200 of power during that specific window was incredibly 00:12:26.200 --> 00:12:28.399 turbulent. I'm looking at the data for Robert 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:31.029 F. Wagner. Okay. He serves for... over two decades, 00:12:31.269 --> 00:12:34.970 starting in 1927. A long, stable run. Right. 00:12:35.529 --> 00:12:39.210 But in June of 1949, he resigns due to ill health, 00:12:39.350 --> 00:12:41.649 and the table indicates he passes away shortly 00:12:41.649 --> 00:12:44.210 after. Creating a sudden vacancy. Suddenly, you 00:12:44.210 --> 00:12:47.509 have a massive power vacuum. To fill it, John 00:12:47.509 --> 00:12:50.789 Foster Dulles is appointed in July of 1949. Okay. 00:12:51.149 --> 00:12:53.669 But Dulles only holds the seat for a few months 00:12:53.669 --> 00:12:56.230 before facing a special election to finish the 00:12:56.230 --> 00:12:58.600 term. Which he loses. He loses that election 00:12:58.600 --> 00:13:01.059 to Herbert H. Lehman, who takes the seat in November 00:13:01.059 --> 00:13:04.980 1949. What exactly is happening to the political 00:13:04.980 --> 00:13:06.919 stability here? Well, think about it. In a span 00:13:06.919 --> 00:13:09.720 of just five months, from June to November 1949, 00:13:10.360 --> 00:13:13.860 a single, highly influential Senate seat was 00:13:13.860 --> 00:13:16.519 occupied by three completely different individuals. 00:13:16.899 --> 00:13:19.879 Wagner, then Dulles, then Lehman. Right. And 00:13:19.879 --> 00:13:22.559 consider the broader historical context of 1949. 00:13:23.470 --> 00:13:25.610 The world is navigating the immediate aftermath 00:13:25.610 --> 00:13:28.690 of World War II. The Cold War is freezing into 00:13:28.690 --> 00:13:31.190 place. Global stakes are unimaginably high. And 00:13:31.190 --> 00:13:33.409 one of the most important legislative seats in 00:13:33.409 --> 00:13:35.690 the country is playing musical chairs. Exactly. 00:13:35.750 --> 00:13:38.169 You see a similar, deeply tragic upheaval in 00:13:38.169 --> 00:13:41.990 the 1960s. The Kennedy seat. Yes. Robert F. Kennedy 00:13:41.990 --> 00:13:45.669 is elected in 1964. But his term ends abruptly 00:13:45.669 --> 00:13:50.289 on June 6, 1968, marked by the single word in 00:13:50.289 --> 00:13:52.960 the electoral history column, died. Following 00:13:52.960 --> 00:13:55.279 his assassination, the seat is marked vacant 00:13:55.279 --> 00:13:58.820 for three months, a silent gap in the data representing 00:13:58.820 --> 00:14:01.379 a national trauma. It's heavy to see it just 00:14:01.379 --> 00:14:04.860 listed as a data point. It is. In September 1968, 00:14:05.379 --> 00:14:07.419 Charles Goodell is appointed to finish Kennedy's 00:14:07.419 --> 00:14:09.879 term. Right. But Goodell eventually loses the 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:12.460 election for a full term to James Buckley. The 00:14:12.460 --> 00:14:14.360 same Buckley, who would later run under three 00:14:14.360 --> 00:14:16.879 different party labels. The very same. Put yourself 00:14:16.879 --> 00:14:18.960 in the shoes of a New York voter during those 00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:21.330 periods. Right. For you. The learner listening 00:14:21.330 --> 00:14:23.990 to this, imagine that context. The person you 00:14:23.990 --> 00:14:27.230 elected is suddenly gone. The governor appoints 00:14:27.230 --> 00:14:29.990 a replacement you had no immediate say in. Then 00:14:29.990 --> 00:14:32.129 months later, there's a special election and 00:14:32.129 --> 00:14:34.409 someone entirely new takes the seat. It must 00:14:34.409 --> 00:14:36.830 have felt incredibly disenfranchising, even if 00:14:36.830 --> 00:14:38.889 the system was functioning exactly as designed 00:14:38.889 --> 00:14:41.490 for a crisis. It's the ultimate whiplash. It 00:14:41.490 --> 00:14:44.129 really reminds us that no matter how structured 00:14:44.129 --> 00:14:47.309 a political system appears on paper, it is always 00:14:47.309 --> 00:14:50.870 vulnerable to sudden uncontrollable human events. 00:14:51.070 --> 00:14:54.389 Yeah. A single tragedy rewrites the entire ledger, 00:14:54.490 --> 00:14:57.289 forcing millions of people to adapt to a reality 00:14:57.289 --> 00:14:59.289 they didn't vote for. But as we keep scrolling 00:14:59.289 --> 00:15:02.190 down this massive table moving past the turbulence 00:15:02.190 --> 00:15:05.929 of the 60s and 70s, the visual rhythm of the 00:15:05.929 --> 00:15:08.549 document fundamentally changes. It really smooths 00:15:08.549 --> 00:15:11.570 out. We enter the 1980s and the chaos seems to 00:15:11.570 --> 00:15:13.809 evaporate. Completely. The revolving doors slam 00:15:13.809 --> 00:15:16.470 shut and we enter an era of intense stability. 00:15:16.789 --> 00:15:19.509 The contrast with the 1700s couldn't be sharper. 00:15:19.669 --> 00:15:22.250 Right. We transition from politicians resigning 00:15:22.250 --> 00:15:24.470 after six months to run a port to individuals 00:15:24.470 --> 00:15:26.429 who treat the Senate as their ultimate career 00:15:26.429 --> 00:15:28.850 destination. Holding these seats for decades. 00:15:29.049 --> 00:15:31.269 Decades. The data for Daniel Patrick Moynihan 00:15:31.269 --> 00:15:34.710 shows him serving from 1977 all the way to 2001. 00:15:35.309 --> 00:15:38.809 24 years. Aldamato serves from 1981 to 1999. 00:15:39.529 --> 00:15:41.909 Decades of continuous service. It's a completely 00:15:41.909 --> 00:15:44.149 different era of Senate mechanics. The power 00:15:44.149 --> 00:15:46.210 has clearly shifted from the state level back 00:15:46.210 --> 00:15:48.470 to the federal level. And this modern stability 00:15:48.470 --> 00:15:51.070 brings us to the mechanical structure of the 00:15:51.070 --> 00:15:53.909 current Senate. The classes. Right. The table 00:15:53.909 --> 00:15:57.429 divides the senators into classes. Specifically... 00:15:57.580 --> 00:16:00.259 New York holds a Class 1 seat and a Class 3 seat. 00:16:00.500 --> 00:16:02.559 Let's focus on the strategic impact of that. 00:16:02.700 --> 00:16:04.559 Sure. We know the Senate is divided into three 00:16:04.559 --> 00:16:07.080 classes so that only about a third of the chamber 00:16:07.080 --> 00:16:09.120 is up for election every two years. Right, to 00:16:09.120 --> 00:16:12.100 prevent total turnover. But what does it actually 00:16:12.100 --> 00:16:15.200 mean for a state to hold Class 1 and Class 3? 00:16:15.440 --> 00:16:18.000 It dictates the entire rhythm of the state's 00:16:18.000 --> 00:16:20.299 political infrastructure. How so? Because New 00:16:20.299 --> 00:16:22.759 York holds class one and class three seats, their 00:16:22.759 --> 00:16:25.679 delegation was effectively split during the 2022 00:16:25.679 --> 00:16:29.799 and 2024 cycles. This means this single state's 00:16:29.799 --> 00:16:32.139 political machine has to gear up for massive 00:16:32.139 --> 00:16:34.720 multi -million dollar Senate campaigns almost 00:16:34.720 --> 00:16:36.919 back to back. Let's trace the current delegation 00:16:36.919 --> 00:16:40.159 data. The class three seat was recently contested 00:16:40.159 --> 00:16:43.200 in 2022. Right. That seat is held by Chuck Schumer. 00:16:43.600 --> 00:16:46.279 And according to the text, his next election 00:16:46.279 --> 00:16:49.700 is set for 2028. Chuck Schumer's data profile 00:16:49.700 --> 00:16:52.419 is really the epitome of the modern era's stability. 00:16:52.940 --> 00:16:56.600 Definitely. He was elected in 1998, serving continuously 00:16:56.600 --> 00:17:00.059 since 1999. Furthermore, the text specifically 00:17:00.059 --> 00:17:02.340 notes he has been serving as the Senate Democratic 00:17:02.340 --> 00:17:05.980 leader since 2017. He is an institutional fixture 00:17:05.980 --> 00:17:09.099 in a way that would have been unimaginable to 00:17:09.099 --> 00:17:11.440 the politicians of the 1790s. They wouldn't even 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:13.740 comprehend it. And then there's the class one 00:17:13.740 --> 00:17:17.460 seat. recently contested in 2024, with its next 00:17:17.460 --> 00:17:20.599 election in 2030. The Gillibrand seat. Right, 00:17:20.680 --> 00:17:23.000 currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand. But the 00:17:23.000 --> 00:17:24.920 path to Gillibrand, sitting in that seat today, 00:17:25.119 --> 00:17:27.960 is its own fascinating chain of events. It is. 00:17:28.319 --> 00:17:30.500 Triggered by a very high -profile resignation 00:17:30.500 --> 00:17:33.740 that echoes the sudden changes of the past, but 00:17:33.740 --> 00:17:36.059 handles them with modern precision. The Hillary 00:17:36.059 --> 00:17:38.660 Clinton ripple effect. Yes. If you look at the 00:17:38.660 --> 00:17:40.660 bottom of the table, Hillary Clinton is elected 00:17:40.660 --> 00:17:43.619 to the Senate in 2000. Okay. She's reelected 00:17:43.619 --> 00:17:47.000 in 2006, but she doesn't finish that second term. 00:17:47.099 --> 00:17:49.519 Right. In January 2009, she resigns to become 00:17:49.519 --> 00:17:51.900 U .S. Secretary of State. This creates a sudden 00:17:51.900 --> 00:17:54.079 vacancy, much like the ones we saw in the early 00:17:54.079 --> 00:17:56.640 1800s when politicians left for diplomatic posts. 00:17:56.720 --> 00:17:58.359 Right, like Rufus King going to Great Britain. 00:17:58.660 --> 00:18:01.380 Exactly. Yeah. But notice how differently the 00:18:01.380 --> 00:18:04.420 modern system absorbs the shock. Oh, it's night 00:18:04.420 --> 00:18:07.859 and day. There is no year -long deadlock. There 00:18:07.859 --> 00:18:11.519 is a brief vacancy of just five days. From January 00:18:11.519 --> 00:18:16.180 21 to January 26, 2009. Five days. Kirsten Gillibrand 00:18:16.180 --> 00:18:18.559 is swiftly appointed to continue Clinton's term. 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:21.380 Gillibrand then wins a special election in 2010 00:18:21.380 --> 00:18:23.799 to finish out that term. And the data shows her 00:18:23.799 --> 00:18:25.759 winning reelection ever since, holding the seat 00:18:25.759 --> 00:18:28.299 to this day. One high -level executive appointment 00:18:28.299 --> 00:18:31.460 ripples out, creates a five -day gap, and ultimately 00:18:31.460 --> 00:18:33.640 installs a new senator who ends up holding the 00:18:33.640 --> 00:18:36.119 position for over a decade. It is the butterfly 00:18:36.119 --> 00:18:38.779 effect, perfectly captured in the columns of 00:18:38.779 --> 00:18:41.279 a Wikipedia table. It's incredible. So what does 00:18:41.279 --> 00:18:43.220 this all mean? That's the big question. When 00:18:43.220 --> 00:18:45.180 we zoom out from all these dates, the shifting 00:18:45.180 --> 00:18:47.799 party labels, the backroom caucuses and the modern 00:18:47.799 --> 00:18:50.250 campaigns. What is the big takeaway for you, 00:18:50.289 --> 00:18:52.410 our listener? If we synthesize everything we've 00:18:52.410 --> 00:18:54.670 analyzed today, it is clear that the single document 00:18:54.670 --> 00:18:57.990 tracing names from Philip Schuyler in 1789 down 00:18:57.990 --> 00:19:00.690 to Chuck Schumer today acts as a perfect mirror 00:19:00.690 --> 00:19:03.569 for the nation's broader structural shifts. We 00:19:03.569 --> 00:19:07.190 began by looking at a decentralized, weak federal 00:19:07.190 --> 00:19:10.109 system where the Senate was a temporary gig for 00:19:10.109 --> 00:19:12.609 men who would rather govern a state or manage 00:19:12.609 --> 00:19:16.160 a local port. We watched the chaotic, experimental 00:19:16.160 --> 00:19:19.619 birth of new political identities. We saw the 00:19:19.619 --> 00:19:22.259 absolute vulnerabilities of a system prone to 00:19:22.259 --> 00:19:25.660 legislative deadlocks and tragic, sudden changes. 00:19:25.900 --> 00:19:28.299 And we observed how pre -popular election mechanics 00:19:28.299 --> 00:19:31.240 meant a few men with blank ballots could stall 00:19:31.240 --> 00:19:34.079 the democratic process entirely. Exactly. And 00:19:34.079 --> 00:19:36.519 finally, we saw the evolution into the highly 00:19:36.519 --> 00:19:39.220 structured, long -tenured powerhouse delegation 00:19:39.220 --> 00:19:42.359 that defines the modern era. The history of the 00:19:42.359 --> 00:19:45.440 country's Centralization of power is quite literally 00:19:45.440 --> 00:19:47.859 written in the turnover rates of these two seats. 00:19:48.039 --> 00:19:51.119 It's amazing how much profound human drama and 00:19:51.119 --> 00:19:54.000 systemic evolution is hidden in plain sight inside 00:19:54.000 --> 00:19:56.779 a data table. It truly is. But before we go, 00:19:56.859 --> 00:19:59.200 this analysis raises an important question. Something 00:19:59.200 --> 00:20:00.960 we haven't touched on yet, but that the text 00:20:00.960 --> 00:20:03.359 directly provokes. Let's hear it. We spent a 00:20:03.359 --> 00:20:05.839 lot of time analyzing those early 19th century 00:20:05.839 --> 00:20:08.420 entries where the data simply says legislature 00:20:08.420 --> 00:20:11.960 failed to elect, leaving major Senate seats entirely 00:20:11.960 --> 00:20:15.440 vacant for months, sometimes nearly a year due 00:20:15.440 --> 00:20:18.000 to procedural gridlock. Right. Those massive 00:20:18.000 --> 00:20:20.839 gaps in representation that disenfranchise the 00:20:20.839 --> 00:20:23.299 entire state. Precisely. So we leave you with 00:20:23.299 --> 00:20:27.829 this to ponder. In today's era of intense, hyper 00:20:27.829 --> 00:20:30.710 -polarized political gridlock, could we ever 00:20:30.710 --> 00:20:34.049 see a return to those early days? Wow. The modern 00:20:34.049 --> 00:20:37.109 system feels stable now, but if certain procedural 00:20:37.109 --> 00:20:39.769 fail -safes were to break down, say a governor 00:20:39.769 --> 00:20:42.170 and a state legislature completely deadlocking 00:20:42.170 --> 00:20:44.210 over appointment rules during a contested cycle, 00:20:44.430 --> 00:20:47.269 could we once again see a scenario where a state's 00:20:47.269 --> 00:20:49.809 major Senate seat sits completely empty for an 00:20:49.809 --> 00:20:52.609 extended period, just as it did in 1819? That 00:20:52.609 --> 00:20:54.549 is a chilling thought to end on, but a fascinating 00:20:54.549 --> 00:20:56.740 one to explore. Definitely something to think 00:20:56.740 --> 00:20:58.599 about. Thank you so much for joining us on this 00:20:58.599 --> 00:21:00.460 journey through the ledger of history. We love 00:21:00.460 --> 00:21:02.359 doing this for you, the learner. Please keep 00:21:02.359 --> 00:21:04.660 bringing us these incredible forces and we will 00:21:04.660 --> 00:21:06.539 see you on the next deep dive. Thank you for 00:21:06.539 --> 00:21:07.720 listening. Keep exploring.