WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.020 Welcome in, everyone. We are diving straight 00:00:02.020 --> 00:00:05.080 into a fascinating timeline today, and we are 00:00:05.080 --> 00:00:07.280 so glad to have you joining us for this custom 00:00:07.280 --> 00:00:10.160 -tailored deep dive. Absolutely. Thanks for having 00:00:10.160 --> 00:00:12.259 me. We've got a source document in front of us 00:00:12.259 --> 00:00:15.720 today that, well, at first glance, you might 00:00:15.720 --> 00:00:18.859 think it sounds like a dry audio textbook. Right. 00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:21.399 It's essentially a Wikipedia article detailing 00:00:21.399 --> 00:00:23.980 the complete history of United States senators 00:00:23.980 --> 00:00:26.359 from Arizona. Exactly. Just a chronological list 00:00:26.359 --> 00:00:29.140 of politicians. But let me tell you. This specific 00:00:29.140 --> 00:00:33.060 list hides some incredible statistical anomalies. 00:00:33.179 --> 00:00:37.060 You've got marathon careers and periods of just 00:00:37.060 --> 00:00:40.250 wild... political musical chairs. It really does, 00:00:40.409 --> 00:00:42.670 because this source tracks Arizona's representation 00:00:42.670 --> 00:00:45.310 in the Senate from the very moment of its statehood 00:00:45.310 --> 00:00:48.270 in 1912 all the way up to our present day March 00:00:48.270 --> 00:00:51.149 of 2026. Which covers a lot of ground. It does. 00:00:51.409 --> 00:00:54.130 And it specifically details the staggering of 00:00:54.130 --> 00:00:56.210 what the Senate calls class one and class three 00:00:56.210 --> 00:00:58.210 seats, which is crucial to understanding the 00:00:58.210 --> 00:01:00.469 whole timeline. OK, let's unpack this, because 00:01:00.469 --> 00:01:02.289 right out of the gate, the history of Arizona 00:01:02.289 --> 00:01:05.549 in the Senate starts with this really funny logistical 00:01:05.549 --> 00:01:09.469 quirk. The statehood gap. Yes, the gap. So based 00:01:09.469 --> 00:01:12.030 on the text, Arizona officially became a state 00:01:12.030 --> 00:01:15.670 on Valentine's Day. February 14th, 1912. Right. 00:01:15.930 --> 00:01:18.349 But they didn't actually elect their U .S. senators 00:01:18.349 --> 00:01:22.129 until over a month later, on March 27. Which 00:01:22.129 --> 00:01:24.629 means they left those seats completely vacant 00:01:24.629 --> 00:01:27.349 during that initial window. It's just wild to 00:01:27.349 --> 00:01:29.609 think about. You know, you are officially a state, 00:01:29.750 --> 00:01:32.109 but your desks in the Senate chamber are just 00:01:32.109 --> 00:01:34.629 sitting empty while you wait to organize an election. 00:01:35.120 --> 00:01:37.599 It really highlights the mechanical reality of 00:01:37.599 --> 00:01:40.180 statehood back then. But once they did hold those 00:01:40.180 --> 00:01:42.359 elections, they established their two Senate 00:01:42.359 --> 00:01:45.019 seats under the mechanical rules we still use 00:01:45.019 --> 00:01:47.980 today. The class one and class three seats. Exactly. 00:01:48.200 --> 00:01:50.959 U .S. senators from Arizona are popularly elected 00:01:50.959 --> 00:01:53.359 for six year terms, but they are staggered. They 00:01:53.359 --> 00:01:55.319 don't run at the same time. So how does that 00:01:55.319 --> 00:01:57.540 play out currently? Well, looking at the data, 00:01:57.659 --> 00:01:59.939 the class one seat's next regular election is 00:01:59.939 --> 00:02:02.620 in 2030, while the class three seat is up in 00:02:02.620 --> 00:02:05.260 2028. Got it. So they are on entirely different 00:02:05.260 --> 00:02:08.099 rhythms. Right. And that matters because it ensures 00:02:08.099 --> 00:02:10.840 a state's delegation doesn't completely turn 00:02:10.840 --> 00:02:13.599 over in a single election year. It maintains 00:02:13.599 --> 00:02:16.080 a level of continuity in Washington. It's a shock 00:02:16.080 --> 00:02:18.620 absorber for the political system. Exactly. And 00:02:18.620 --> 00:02:21.099 what's fascinating here is the ultimate result 00:02:21.099 --> 00:02:24.590 of that design continuity. Since 1912, only 15 00:02:24.590 --> 00:02:27.229 individuals have ever served as a senator from 00:02:27.229 --> 00:02:31.030 Arizona. Wait, only 15? Just 15 people in well 00:02:31.030 --> 00:02:33.669 over a century of history. That is, I want you 00:02:33.669 --> 00:02:35.310 to just think about that for a second. Think 00:02:35.310 --> 00:02:37.530 about how many people have rotated through your 00:02:37.530 --> 00:02:41.050 own workplace in just the last five years. And 00:02:41.050 --> 00:02:43.830 contrast that with only 15 senators for an entire 00:02:43.830 --> 00:02:47.189 state since 1912. It's an incredible bottleneck. 00:02:47.310 --> 00:02:49.310 It really is. So I'm looking at the early records 00:02:49.310 --> 00:02:51.469 here to figure out why that number is so low. 00:02:52.169 --> 00:02:54.469 And the longevity of these early politicians 00:02:54.469 --> 00:02:57.050 just jumps off the page. They really settled 00:02:57.050 --> 00:02:59.610 in. They did. You have Henry F. Ashurst, who 00:02:59.610 --> 00:03:01.409 was one of the state's very first senators in 00:03:01.409 --> 00:03:04.050 the class one seat. He won that inaugural election 00:03:04.050 --> 00:03:07.289 and served from 1912 all the way to 1941. Nearly 00:03:07.289 --> 00:03:11.069 three decades in one seat. Almost 30 years. But 00:03:11.069 --> 00:03:14.289 even Ashurst gets dwarfed by the absolute heavyweight 00:03:14.289 --> 00:03:16.990 of this list. Carl Hayden. Yes. Hayden is the 00:03:16.990 --> 00:03:19.789 ultimate record holder here. He was elected to 00:03:19.789 --> 00:03:22.770 the class three seat in 1926, and he served from 00:03:22.770 --> 00:03:29.729 1927 until 1969. From 1927 to 1969. That is 42 00:03:29.729 --> 00:03:32.930 years. 42 years occupying a single Senate seat. 00:03:33.090 --> 00:03:35.919 It almost defies comprehension today. I mean, 00:03:35.939 --> 00:03:37.740 we are not just talking about a long career here. 00:03:37.800 --> 00:03:39.960 We are talking about multiple generations of 00:03:39.960 --> 00:03:42.360 Arizona history being overseen by a single person. 00:03:42.479 --> 00:03:44.419 He weathered the Great Depression, World War 00:03:44.419 --> 00:03:47.219 II, the Cold War, all from that one desk. And 00:03:47.219 --> 00:03:49.719 when one person mathematically locks down a seat 00:03:49.719 --> 00:03:52.520 for half a century, it severely restricts how 00:03:52.520 --> 00:03:54.639 many total individuals can ever join that list 00:03:54.639 --> 00:03:57.259 of 15. Precisely. The class three seat was essentially 00:03:57.259 --> 00:03:59.960 off the board for decades. Here's where it gets 00:03:59.960 --> 00:04:02.270 really interesting. Because I'm looking at another 00:04:02.270 --> 00:04:04.990 massive name on this list, Barry Goldwater, and 00:04:04.990 --> 00:04:07.210 his timeline is highly unusual. It breaks the 00:04:07.210 --> 00:04:08.810 mold entirely. Walk us through the Goldwater 00:04:08.810 --> 00:04:10.590 shuffle here. So Goldwater was elected to the 00:04:10.590 --> 00:04:13.430 class one seat in 1952. He served there until 00:04:13.430 --> 00:04:16.050 1965 when he retired to run for U .S. president. 00:04:16.269 --> 00:04:18.389 Right, which usually means your time representing 00:04:18.389 --> 00:04:20.870 your state in the Senate is over. Normally, yes. 00:04:21.449 --> 00:04:24.769 But he wasn't done. In 1968, Carl Hayden finally 00:04:24.769 --> 00:04:27.750 retired, opening up the class three seat. Goldwater 00:04:27.750 --> 00:04:29.949 ran again, this time for that class three seat 00:04:29.949 --> 00:04:34.129 one, and served there from 1969 until 1987. So 00:04:34.129 --> 00:04:36.470 he builds his career in class one, steps away, 00:04:36.649 --> 00:04:38.949 and then returns to claim the class three seat. 00:04:39.089 --> 00:04:41.850 He essentially jumps tracks. It's a very rare 00:04:41.850 --> 00:04:44.189 double duty maneuver across two different electoral 00:04:44.189 --> 00:04:47.250 classes. And looking further down the list, John 00:04:47.250 --> 00:04:50.139 Callow pulled a very similar trick. decades later. 00:04:50.259 --> 00:04:52.720 He did. Kell served in the Class 1 seat from 00:04:52.720 --> 00:04:56.240 1995 until he voluntarily retired in 2013. A 00:04:56.240 --> 00:04:58.839 solid 18 -year run. But as the source shows, 00:04:59.060 --> 00:05:01.040 he was suddenly appointed back into the Senate 00:05:01.040 --> 00:05:04.160 in 2018 to temporarily fill a vacancy in the 00:05:04.160 --> 00:05:06.379 Class 3 seat. If we connect this to the bigger 00:05:06.379 --> 00:05:09.000 picture, what do these overlapping timelines 00:05:09.000 --> 00:05:12.180 tell us? Well, it shows a very unique pattern 00:05:12.180 --> 00:05:15.079 in Arizona's political ecosystem. You have a 00:05:15.079 --> 00:05:17.180 system where established names are continually 00:05:17.180 --> 00:05:19.120 recycled back into the fold across different 00:05:19.120 --> 00:05:22.459 electoral classes. Name ID is incredibly valuable. 00:05:22.639 --> 00:05:24.339 They bring the veterans back because the voters 00:05:24.339 --> 00:05:27.019 already know them. Exactly. But that temporary 00:05:27.019 --> 00:05:31.040 return of John Kyle in 2018 really marks a turning 00:05:31.040 --> 00:05:32.800 point in this document because we've been talking 00:05:32.800 --> 00:05:34.920 about these ironclad decades of consistency, 00:05:35.139 --> 00:05:38.199 right? Right. But starting in 2018, the class 00:05:38.199 --> 00:05:41.819 three seat. suddenly descends into absolute chaos. 00:05:42.120 --> 00:05:45.040 The contrast is jarring. John McCain had held 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:47.600 that class three seat since 1987. Continuing 00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:50.439 that tradition of longevity. Yes. But he passed 00:05:50.439 --> 00:05:54.800 away in office on August 25, 2018. And that triggered 00:05:54.800 --> 00:05:57.360 a rapid fire chain of succession. Let's trace 00:05:57.360 --> 00:05:59.000 this timeline carefully because it moves fast. 00:05:59.319 --> 00:06:02.240 The seat was vacant until September 4 when John 00:06:02.240 --> 00:06:04.759 Creel was appointed. Okay. But Kai resigned on 00:06:04.759 --> 00:06:07.100 December 31 of that same year. So we have another 00:06:07.100 --> 00:06:10.350 vacancy. Briefly. Yeah. Yes. Then Martha McSally 00:06:10.350 --> 00:06:13.089 was appointed in 2019. That's three people in 00:06:13.089 --> 00:06:15.230 one seat in less than a year. And it continued. 00:06:15.509 --> 00:06:18.170 Mark Kelly then won the special election in 2020 00:06:18.170 --> 00:06:20.310 to finish out McCain's original term, and he 00:06:20.310 --> 00:06:23.250 was later reelected in 2022. So you go from Carl 00:06:23.250 --> 00:06:26.170 Hayden holding the seat for 42 years to having 00:06:26.170 --> 00:06:29.209 four different occupants, McCain, Kyle, McSally, 00:06:29.230 --> 00:06:31.829 and Kelly, in just over two years. It's a massive 00:06:31.829 --> 00:06:34.540 institutional whiplash. And the class one seat 00:06:34.540 --> 00:06:36.680 was shifting dramatically during this exact same 00:06:36.680 --> 00:06:39.100 window, wasn't it? It was. Kyrsten Sinema was 00:06:39.100 --> 00:06:42.430 elected to the class one seat in 2018. And the 00:06:42.430 --> 00:06:44.889 source notes a pretty significant affiliation 00:06:44.889 --> 00:06:47.129 change during her term. Yes. The record shows 00:06:47.129 --> 00:06:49.790 she left the Democratic Party on December 9th, 00:06:49.790 --> 00:06:52.810 2022, to become an independent. And she ultimately 00:06:52.810 --> 00:06:55.230 chose to retire rather than run again. Correct. 00:06:55.649 --> 00:06:57.829 Which brings us right up to the present day. 00:06:58.110 --> 00:07:01.089 Ruben Gallego was elected in 2024 and officially 00:07:01.089 --> 00:07:05.529 took office on January 3rd, 2025. Meaning the 00:07:05.529 --> 00:07:08.089 current Senate delegation for Arizona as of March 00:07:08.089 --> 00:07:11.939 2026 consists of Democrats Mark Kelly. And Ruben 00:07:11.939 --> 00:07:14.199 Gallego. That's right. The dust has sort of settled 00:07:14.199 --> 00:07:16.720 on a completely new era. And just to briefly 00:07:16.720 --> 00:07:18.899 zoom out and give you a complete picture of the 00:07:18.899 --> 00:07:21.019 state's current federal lawmakers, because the 00:07:21.019 --> 00:07:24.459 population has grown so much since 1912. Arizona 00:07:24.459 --> 00:07:26.519 also has nine House representatives right now. 00:07:26.579 --> 00:07:29.339 A much larger delegation overall. Yeah. You have 00:07:29.339 --> 00:07:33.660 Schweikert, Crane, Ansari, Stanton, Biggs, Siskamani. 00:07:34.110 --> 00:07:37.490 Grialva, Hamadei, and Gosar. Just a huge modern 00:07:37.490 --> 00:07:39.350 political apparatus compared to those two empty 00:07:39.350 --> 00:07:41.689 desks back in 1912. It's a completely different 00:07:41.689 --> 00:07:44.029 landscape. So what does this all mean? That's 00:07:44.029 --> 00:07:46.529 the big question. We started by looking at what 00:07:46.529 --> 00:07:49.069 seemed like a simple Wikipedia table of names 00:07:49.069 --> 00:07:52.209 and dates. But as we tracked the data, we found 00:07:52.209 --> 00:07:55.850 a roadmap of deep historical stability. punctuated 00:07:55.850 --> 00:07:58.550 by these intense moments of rapid turnover and 00:07:58.550 --> 00:08:00.769 political comebacks. This raises an important 00:08:00.769 --> 00:08:03.930 question about how we view the constant ebb and 00:08:03.930 --> 00:08:06.269 flow of congressional power. When you understand 00:08:06.269 --> 00:08:08.970 the underlying rhythm of these six -year staggered 00:08:08.970 --> 00:08:11.870 cycles, all this turnover stops looking like 00:08:11.870 --> 00:08:14.430 random events and starts making mechanical sense. 00:08:14.730 --> 00:08:16.649 It gives you the blueprint. And I want to leave 00:08:16.649 --> 00:08:18.829 you with one final thing to ponder based on this 00:08:18.829 --> 00:08:21.089 source data. Okay. Look at the stark contrast 00:08:21.089 --> 00:08:23.970 we just discussed. You have Carl Hayden's 42 00:08:23.970 --> 00:08:26.970 year term on one hand, and then this recent chaos 00:08:26.970 --> 00:08:29.529 where the class three seat had four different 00:08:29.529 --> 00:08:31.689 occupants in just over two years on the other. 00:08:31.769 --> 00:08:34.429 The extremes of the spectrum. Exactly. You have 00:08:34.429 --> 00:08:36.789 to wonder, is the era of the lifelong multi -decade 00:08:36.789 --> 00:08:39.830 senator permanently over? Has politics just become 00:08:39.830 --> 00:08:42.789 too volatile for that? Or is this just a brief 00:08:42.789 --> 00:08:45.070 chaotic chapter before the next 40 year incumbent 00:08:45.070 --> 00:08:48.059 emerges to quietly lock down a seat? That is 00:08:48.059 --> 00:08:50.659 a fascinating thought. There's something to mull 00:08:50.659 --> 00:08:54.039 over next time you look at a ballot. Keep questioning 00:08:54.039 --> 00:08:56.259 the data, everyone, and thank you so much for 00:08:56.259 --> 00:08:57.419 joining us on this deep dive.