WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.799 So I want you to start by picturing a brick wall, 00:00:03.940 --> 00:00:07.639 just a really solid, heavy, unmoving brick wall. 00:00:07.740 --> 00:00:11.060 Okay. And now think of a belief you hold that 00:00:11.060 --> 00:00:13.849 feels exactly like that wall. And I'm not talking 00:00:13.849 --> 00:00:16.149 about casual opinions here, not, you know, whether 00:00:16.149 --> 00:00:18.429 pineapple belongs on pizza or if summer is better 00:00:18.429 --> 00:00:20.109 than winter. We're talking about the bedrock 00:00:20.109 --> 00:00:22.929 stuff. Exactly. The foundational things, the 00:00:22.929 --> 00:00:25.969 belief that the past actually happened, the belief 00:00:25.969 --> 00:00:28.410 that other people have minds and aren't just 00:00:28.410 --> 00:00:31.850 like sophisticated robots or the belief that 00:00:31.850 --> 00:00:34.369 two plus two equals four. The kind of stuff that 00:00:34.369 --> 00:00:36.549 if you stopped believing it today, you wouldn't 00:00:36.549 --> 00:00:38.990 just be considered wrong by society. You'd be 00:00:38.990 --> 00:00:42.700 considered completely insane. Yes. Exactly. We 00:00:42.700 --> 00:00:45.039 really like to think these beliefs are untouchable, 00:00:45.060 --> 00:00:47.119 that they are true no matter what happens in 00:00:47.119 --> 00:00:49.579 the outside world. But today for this deep dive, 00:00:49.700 --> 00:00:51.840 we are looking at a philosophy that says, actually, 00:00:51.960 --> 00:00:54.679 you could tear that wall down. You really could. 00:00:54.780 --> 00:00:56.700 You could decide right now that two plus two 00:00:56.700 --> 00:00:59.259 equals five or that the past is a total fiction 00:00:59.259 --> 00:01:01.299 and you can do it completely logically as long 00:01:01.299 --> 00:01:04.109 as you're willing to pay the price. I mean, that 00:01:04.109 --> 00:01:06.709 price is incredibly steep. It basically involves 00:01:06.709 --> 00:01:09.450 burning down the rest of your mental house just 00:01:09.450 --> 00:01:12.450 to save that one strange new belief. It's fascinating. 00:01:12.890 --> 00:01:16.030 So welcome to the Deep Dive. Today, we are grappling 00:01:16.030 --> 00:01:18.829 with one of the most famous and honestly slippery 00:01:18.829 --> 00:01:22.109 phrases in modern philosophy. The phrase is, 00:01:22.209 --> 00:01:25.090 hold come what may. It's a great phrase. It almost 00:01:25.090 --> 00:01:27.469 sounds poetic, doesn't it? It does. Like a romantic 00:01:27.469 --> 00:01:29.530 promise or a line from a wedding vow or something. 00:01:29.650 --> 00:01:32.849 Hold come what may. But we are diving into the 00:01:32.849 --> 00:01:35.750 source material of Willard Van Orman Quine today. 00:01:35.870 --> 00:01:39.189 He was this absolute titan of 20th century logic. 00:01:39.390 --> 00:01:41.989 Yeah, and for Quine, this is definitely not romance. 00:01:42.109 --> 00:01:44.849 Not at all. It was a radical, fundamental challenge 00:01:44.849 --> 00:01:47.569 to how we understand truth itself. So the mission 00:01:47.569 --> 00:01:50.730 today for you, the listener, is to unpack Quine's 00:01:50.730 --> 00:01:53.760 web of belief. We are going to look at why it's 00:01:53.760 --> 00:01:56.120 technically possible to believe literally anything, 00:01:56.319 --> 00:01:58.980 no matter how crazy it sounds, and why, despite 00:01:58.980 --> 00:02:01.319 that fact, we still mostly agree on reality. 00:02:01.620 --> 00:02:03.959 It's quite a journey. You go from total epistemological 00:02:03.959 --> 00:02:07.079 chaos to this really grounded pragmatic stability. 00:02:07.579 --> 00:02:10.180 And it really changes how you look at arguments, 00:02:10.379 --> 00:02:13.659 right? Or politics and even hard science. Oh, 00:02:13.659 --> 00:02:16.080 absolutely. It becomes less about static facts 00:02:16.080 --> 00:02:18.939 and much more about architecture, the structure 00:02:18.939 --> 00:02:21.370 of how we think. Let's get right into it then. 00:02:21.449 --> 00:02:24.990 Come what may, what is the actual textbook definition 00:02:24.990 --> 00:02:27.389 here? Because to a layperson, it just sounds 00:02:27.389 --> 00:02:29.330 like we're talking about someone being incredibly 00:02:29.330 --> 00:02:32.250 stubborn. Right. So in the context of Quine's 00:02:32.250 --> 00:02:34.449 seminal paper, which is called Two Dogmas of 00:02:34.449 --> 00:02:37.389 Empiricism, holding a belief, come what may, 00:02:37.629 --> 00:02:40.110 means you are completely unwilling to discard 00:02:40.110 --> 00:02:42.620 a specific statement. No matter what. No matter 00:02:42.620 --> 00:02:44.740 what new evidence comes in. No matter what you 00:02:44.740 --> 00:02:46.840 see, what you hear, what you experience in the 00:02:46.840 --> 00:02:50.039 world. That belief stays fixed. OK, but to the 00:02:50.039 --> 00:02:51.960 average listener, that sounds like the exact 00:02:51.960 --> 00:02:54.379 definition of a delusion. I mean, I hold the 00:02:54.379 --> 00:02:56.680 belief it is raining. Right. And I walk over, 00:02:56.719 --> 00:02:58.180 I look outside the window and it's completely 00:02:58.180 --> 00:03:01.300 sunny. If I still say it is raining, I'm not 00:03:01.300 --> 00:03:03.800 acting like a philosopher. I'm just flat out 00:03:03.800 --> 00:03:06.219 wrong. Right, because in our normal everyday 00:03:06.219 --> 00:03:09.080 lives, we assume that beliefs have to bow down 00:03:09.080 --> 00:03:11.719 to evidence. If the facts change, I change my 00:03:11.719 --> 00:03:14.360 mind. That's the rational thing to do. Exactly. 00:03:14.560 --> 00:03:17.199 But Quine is looking at the machinery under the 00:03:17.199 --> 00:03:20.840 hood of that rationality. He posited that it 00:03:20.840 --> 00:03:23.860 is logically possible to hold on to that belief. 00:03:24.460 --> 00:03:27.340 the belief that it's raining, even while you 00:03:27.340 --> 00:03:29.800 are staring directly at the sun. But how? How 00:03:29.800 --> 00:03:32.080 do you possibly justify that to yourself without 00:03:32.080 --> 00:03:34.240 just closing your eyes and humming loudly with 00:03:34.240 --> 00:03:36.419 your fingers in your ears? By making what Quine 00:03:36.419 --> 00:03:39.300 calls suitable adjustments elsewhere in your 00:03:39.300 --> 00:03:41.419 belief system. Suitable adjustments. Okay, give 00:03:41.419 --> 00:03:43.870 me an example. Sure. you could claim that looking 00:03:43.870 --> 00:03:46.069 out the window was actually a hallucination oh 00:03:46.069 --> 00:03:48.250 wow or you could claim that the word raining 00:03:48.250 --> 00:03:51.229 has always actually meant sunny in your own personal 00:03:51.229 --> 00:03:53.789 internal language or maybe you decide there is 00:03:53.789 --> 00:03:56.699 an invisible imperceptible force field that's 00:03:56.699 --> 00:03:58.860 blocking the rain from your vision. OK, I see. 00:03:58.979 --> 00:04:01.860 So if I am willing to completely break my understanding 00:04:01.860 --> 00:04:04.479 of the English language or basic optics or my 00:04:04.479 --> 00:04:07.120 own mental sanity, I can technically save the 00:04:07.120 --> 00:04:09.599 belief that it's raining. Exactly. You can save 00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:13.460 it. And this leads to Quine's massive, earth 00:04:13.460 --> 00:04:16.600 -shaking claim in logic, which is... No statement 00:04:16.600 --> 00:04:19.360 is immune to revision. No statement is immune. 00:04:19.620 --> 00:04:22.600 Right. And conversely, any statement at all can 00:04:22.600 --> 00:04:25.100 be held true, provided you are willing to make 00:04:25.100 --> 00:04:27.680 drastic enough changes to everything else you 00:04:27.680 --> 00:04:29.699 believe. Okay. This is the real nugget here, 00:04:29.779 --> 00:04:32.259 because we usually divide our world into two 00:04:32.259 --> 00:04:34.160 distinct buckets. The facts and the opinions. 00:04:34.220 --> 00:04:38.540 Exactly. Bucket A is facts. Two plus two is four. 00:04:39.060 --> 00:04:41.459 A bachelor is an unmarried man. These are the 00:04:41.459 --> 00:04:44.699 things we feel strongly cannot be false. Ever. 00:04:45.160 --> 00:04:47.980 And then bucket B is opinions, stuff like the 00:04:47.980 --> 00:04:50.500 weather tomorrow or stock prices or who is going 00:04:50.500 --> 00:04:52.279 to win the big game. And what you're saying is 00:04:52.279 --> 00:04:54.759 Quine is basically taking bucket A, picking it 00:04:54.759 --> 00:04:56.680 up and just dumping the whole thing into bucket 00:04:56.680 --> 00:04:58.819 B. That is a brilliant way to put it, actually. 00:04:58.839 --> 00:05:02.920 He is directly attacking a very old, very rigid 00:05:02.920 --> 00:05:05.220 distinction in philosophy. It's called the analytic 00:05:05.220 --> 00:05:07.420 synthetic divide. OK, let's clarify those terms 00:05:07.420 --> 00:05:09.379 for the listener because they pop up constantly 00:05:09.379 --> 00:05:11.759 in the source material we reviewed. Analytic 00:05:11.759 --> 00:05:14.040 versus synthetic truths. Break that down for 00:05:14.040 --> 00:05:16.019 us. All right, let's strip away the philosophical 00:05:16.019 --> 00:05:20.740 jargon. Traditionally, philosophers, specifically 00:05:20.740 --> 00:05:24.420 the logical positivists who Quine was fiercely 00:05:24.420 --> 00:05:27.720 arguing against, they thought some truths were 00:05:27.720 --> 00:05:31.060 analytic. Meaning? Meaning they are true just 00:05:31.060 --> 00:05:33.500 by definition alone. The classic example is... 00:05:33.720 --> 00:05:36.160 All bachelors are unmarried. Because you don't 00:05:36.160 --> 00:05:38.600 need to go out and conduct a global census of 00:05:38.600 --> 00:05:41.420 every single bachelor in the world to prove that 00:05:41.420 --> 00:05:43.680 statement. It's just literally contained in the 00:05:43.680 --> 00:05:46.040 definition of the word. Exactly. If you somehow 00:05:46.040 --> 00:05:48.939 find a married bachelor, you haven't made a groundbreaking 00:05:48.939 --> 00:05:51.480 scientific discovery. You've just misunderstood 00:05:51.480 --> 00:05:53.959 the English word bachelor. Right. It's a closed 00:05:53.959 --> 00:05:56.720 loop of logic. Yes, a closed loop. So then, on 00:05:56.720 --> 00:05:59.740 the other side, you have synthetic truths. These 00:05:59.740 --> 00:06:01.720 are truths that depend on the actual state of 00:06:01.720 --> 00:06:04.439 the world. For example, the cat is on the mat. 00:06:04.639 --> 00:06:07.000 Right, because that is only true if there is 00:06:07.000 --> 00:06:09.079 physically a cat sitting on a mat in front of 00:06:09.079 --> 00:06:10.680 you. You have to go check the room. You have 00:06:10.680 --> 00:06:13.560 to observe it. So the traditional view before 00:06:13.560 --> 00:06:17.079 Quine was, synthetic truths can easily change 00:06:17.079 --> 00:06:19.759 if the world changes. The cat gets up, the truth 00:06:19.759 --> 00:06:23.379 changes. But analytic truths like math or definitions, 00:06:23.720 --> 00:06:26.480 those are eternal. They are true come what may. 00:06:26.860 --> 00:06:28.980 And Quine just took a sledgehammer to that entire 00:06:28.980 --> 00:06:31.740 concept. He absolutely did. He argued that this 00:06:31.740 --> 00:06:34.180 boundary between the two buckets is a total illusion. 00:06:34.500 --> 00:06:37.579 He said that even those supposedly perfect analytic 00:06:37.579 --> 00:06:40.399 truths, like math, are only true because they 00:06:40.399 --> 00:06:42.500 fit neatly into our current system of explaining 00:06:42.500 --> 00:06:45.379 reality. So they aren't written in stone. No. 00:06:45.949 --> 00:06:47.990 If we discovered something truly bizarre out 00:06:47.990 --> 00:06:50.410 in the universe, say some weird quantum physics 00:06:50.410 --> 00:06:52.310 phenomenon that completely broke our understanding 00:06:52.310 --> 00:06:54.750 of counting injury, we might actually decide 00:06:54.750 --> 00:06:56.649 to change our math rather than deny the physical 00:06:56.649 --> 00:06:58.509 reality we're seeing. That is a really heavy 00:06:58.509 --> 00:07:01.769 concept. It implies that 2 plus 2 equals 4 isn't 00:07:01.769 --> 00:07:04.129 this universal law written in the stars. It's 00:07:04.129 --> 00:07:06.430 just a tool we use because, well, it works for 00:07:06.430 --> 00:07:09.569 us right now. Precisely. It's a tool. And it's 00:07:09.569 --> 00:07:12.490 a very, very good tool. But if we ever found 00:07:12.490 --> 00:07:14.769 a situation where we're saying 2 plus 2 equals 00:07:14.769 --> 00:07:17.670 5, somehow explain the incoming data better, 00:07:17.769 --> 00:07:20.189 we could logically revise the math. You know, 00:07:20.209 --> 00:07:22.290 I remember hearing an example about this involving 00:07:22.290 --> 00:07:25.189 fluids. Like if I have one drop of water and 00:07:25.189 --> 00:07:26.850 then I add another drop of water to it, they 00:07:26.850 --> 00:07:29.589 merge into one bigger drop. So in that physical 00:07:29.589 --> 00:07:32.810 space, one plus one equals one. That is a classic 00:07:32.810 --> 00:07:35.589 counterexample. Now, usually in our normal lives, 00:07:35.810 --> 00:07:38.269 we would say, no, no, that's just physics. That's 00:07:38.269 --> 00:07:41.009 not math. We quickly redefine what we are counting. 00:07:41.529 --> 00:07:43.389 To save the mass. Right. We'd say we are counting 00:07:43.389 --> 00:07:45.889 the volume of water, not the distinct drops. 00:07:46.129 --> 00:07:50.589 Exactly. But Quine's point is that we made a 00:07:50.589 --> 00:07:53.470 choice there. We actively chose to save the arithmetic 00:07:53.470 --> 00:07:55.670 and complicate the physics. Oh, I see. We could 00:07:55.670 --> 00:07:57.269 have done it the completely opposite way. We 00:07:57.269 --> 00:07:58.769 could have just said, OK, in this particular 00:07:58.769 --> 00:08:02.310 world, 1 plus 1 equals 1. Wow. So literally nothing 00:08:02.310 --> 00:08:04.829 is safe. No statement is immune to revision. 00:08:05.660 --> 00:08:08.319 But if that's true, why isn't our day -to -day 00:08:08.319 --> 00:08:10.500 worldview just a total mess of contradictions? 00:08:10.839 --> 00:08:13.100 If I can believe whatever I want by tweaking 00:08:13.100 --> 00:08:15.699 the rules, why do you and I both agree that the 00:08:15.699 --> 00:08:18.079 sky is blue and that cars need to stop at red 00:08:18.079 --> 00:08:20.620 lights? Well, because while we logically can 00:08:20.620 --> 00:08:23.420 revise anything, human beings are fundamentally 00:08:23.420 --> 00:08:26.879 lazy. Or, to be kinder, we are highly efficient. 00:08:27.370 --> 00:08:29.610 And this brings us to the core metaphor of Quine's 00:08:29.610 --> 00:08:32.309 work. I think this is the absolute most useful 00:08:32.309 --> 00:08:34.649 visualization for you listening right now. It's 00:08:34.649 --> 00:08:36.789 called the web of belief. I love this image. 00:08:36.870 --> 00:08:39.110 Picture a spider web. Right, but imagine it as 00:08:39.110 --> 00:08:41.490 a huge three -dimensional web. Quine suggests 00:08:41.490 --> 00:08:43.610 that our knowledge isn't just a random list of 00:08:43.610 --> 00:08:45.350 independent facts stacked on top of each other. 00:08:45.429 --> 00:08:47.909 It's an interconnected structure, a vast network. 00:08:48.190 --> 00:08:50.549 Every single belief you hold is connected to 00:08:50.549 --> 00:08:53.129 other beliefs by these strands of logic and association. 00:08:53.690 --> 00:08:56.710 So my belief that my car will start when I turn 00:08:56.710 --> 00:08:59.269 the key isn't just floating out in empty space. 00:08:59.490 --> 00:09:02.289 It is tied directly to my belief that gasoline 00:09:02.289 --> 00:09:05.149 is flammable, which is tied to chemistry is a 00:09:05.149 --> 00:09:07.389 real science, which is tied to the fundamental 00:09:07.389 --> 00:09:10.850 idea that the past predicts the future. Exactly. 00:09:10.850 --> 00:09:13.490 And this deep interdependence is what philosophers 00:09:13.490 --> 00:09:16.850 call holism. This is Quine's key technical insight 00:09:16.850 --> 00:09:20.350 here. You can never, ever test a single belief 00:09:20.350 --> 00:09:23.629 in total isolation. And this is referred to in 00:09:23.629 --> 00:09:25.870 the sources, the Duhem -Quine thesis, right? 00:09:25.929 --> 00:09:28.490 Yes, named after Pierre Duhem and Quine. The 00:09:28.490 --> 00:09:30.970 core idea is that if you run a scientific experiment 00:09:30.970 --> 00:09:33.529 and it fails, logic alone does not tell you what 00:09:33.529 --> 00:09:35.830 part of your system failed. Let's make this concrete 00:09:35.830 --> 00:09:38.029 for the listener. Say I'm an astronomer. I've 00:09:38.029 --> 00:09:40.190 got this grand theory that says a new planet 00:09:40.190 --> 00:09:42.490 should be right at coordinate X in the sky. So 00:09:42.490 --> 00:09:44.730 I point my shiny telescope at coordinate X and 00:09:44.730 --> 00:09:46.690 there's nothing there. The planet is missing. 00:09:46.909 --> 00:09:48.750 Okay, so now you have a conflict. Your web is 00:09:48.750 --> 00:09:51.559 vibrating. Your theory says planet is here. But 00:09:51.559 --> 00:09:53.659 your observation says space is totally empty. 00:09:53.879 --> 00:09:56.519 So standard logic would say my theory is just 00:09:56.519 --> 00:10:00.100 wrong. I failed. But not necessarily. Maybe the 00:10:00.100 --> 00:10:02.620 lens on the telescope is dirty. Maybe the math 00:10:02.620 --> 00:10:05.100 for the coordinates was done wrong. Maybe light 00:10:05.100 --> 00:10:07.419 travels differently in that specific sector of 00:10:07.419 --> 00:10:10.360 space. Or maybe there's just an invisible space 00:10:10.360 --> 00:10:13.639 dust cloud blocking your view. I see. The failure 00:10:13.639 --> 00:10:16.500 sends a shockwave through the whole web, but 00:10:16.500 --> 00:10:19.139 it doesn't point a big neon red arrow at the 00:10:19.139 --> 00:10:22.889 specific culprit. Exactly. You, the human being, 00:10:22.970 --> 00:10:25.470 the scientist, have to make a choice about which 00:10:25.470 --> 00:10:28.269 strand of the web to cut. Do you cut the strand 00:10:28.269 --> 00:10:31.009 labeled my planet theory? Do you cut the strand 00:10:31.009 --> 00:10:33.649 labeled this telescope is reliable? Or do you 00:10:33.649 --> 00:10:36.549 cut the incredibly thick strand labeled the established 00:10:36.549 --> 00:10:39.490 laws of optics? And this is where the hold come 00:10:39.490 --> 00:10:42.129 what may idea comes rushing back in. I could 00:10:42.129 --> 00:10:44.730 legitimately say my theory is absolutely perfect. 00:10:44.830 --> 00:10:47.250 The planet is definitely there. Therefore, the 00:10:47.250 --> 00:10:49.899 telescope must be lying to me. I can hold my 00:10:49.899 --> 00:10:52.019 theory come what may, as long as I sacrifice 00:10:52.019 --> 00:10:54.539 the telescope's reliability. And scientists actually 00:10:54.539 --> 00:10:56.980 do this all the time. When Isaac Newton's theory 00:10:56.980 --> 00:10:59.379 of gravity didn't perfectly predict the weird 00:10:59.379 --> 00:11:02.139 orbit of the planet Uranus, astronomers didn't 00:11:02.139 --> 00:11:04.120 just throw out the law of gravity. Right, that 00:11:04.120 --> 00:11:06.500 would be madness. They assumed there simply must 00:11:06.500 --> 00:11:08.919 be another unseen planet out there pulling on 00:11:08.919 --> 00:11:11.720 it. They held on to the theory of gravity come 00:11:11.720 --> 00:11:14.519 what may, and they basically invented a hypothetical 00:11:14.519 --> 00:11:16.990 planet to make the math work out. And in that 00:11:16.990 --> 00:11:18.669 case, they were actually right. That's exactly 00:11:18.669 --> 00:11:21.389 how we discovered Neptune. True. But sometimes 00:11:21.389 --> 00:11:23.610 they do the exact same thing, and they're wrong. 00:11:23.970 --> 00:11:26.129 They tried the same trick with the planet Mercury. 00:11:27.029 --> 00:11:29.669 Mercury's orbit was moving weirdly, so they invented 00:11:29.669 --> 00:11:32.490 another hypothetical planet called Vulcan to 00:11:32.490 --> 00:11:34.769 explain it without breaking Newton's laws. But 00:11:34.769 --> 00:11:37.389 Vulcan didn't exist. Right. Vulcan wasn't real. 00:11:37.509 --> 00:11:39.889 So in that case, they eventually had to cut the 00:11:39.889 --> 00:11:42.889 thick Newtonian gravity strand and replace it 00:11:42.889 --> 00:11:45.990 with a whole new paradigm. Einstein's theory 00:11:45.990 --> 00:11:48.649 of relativity. So the web of belief is just this 00:11:48.649 --> 00:11:52.309 constant, ongoing negotiation. We're always trying 00:11:52.309 --> 00:11:54.750 to keep the structure intact while dealing with 00:11:54.750 --> 00:11:57.330 this unfriendly evidence that keeps poking at 00:11:57.330 --> 00:11:59.710 us from the outside world. That is exactly the 00:11:59.710 --> 00:12:02.470 dynamic. And this naturally leads us to the second 00:12:02.470 --> 00:12:04.529 really famous Quinian phrase from our source 00:12:04.529 --> 00:12:07.450 material. We've talked extensively about hold 00:12:07.450 --> 00:12:10.509 come what may. But now we need to introduce hold 00:12:10.509 --> 00:12:13.129 more stubbornly, at least. Hold more stubbornly, 00:12:13.129 --> 00:12:16.299 at least. That sounds a lot more like a practical 00:12:16.299 --> 00:12:18.759 fix to a philosophical headache. It really is. 00:12:19.019 --> 00:12:22.039 Because Quine fully acknowledges that while all 00:12:22.039 --> 00:12:24.840 beliefs can technically be revised, they're definitely 00:12:24.840 --> 00:12:28.039 not created equal in our minds. Some beliefs 00:12:28.039 --> 00:12:31.200 sit right at the outer edge of the web, and some 00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:34.159 sit deep in the center. Okay, let's map the geography 00:12:34.159 --> 00:12:36.799 of this web for the listener. What exactly lives 00:12:36.799 --> 00:12:39.179 out at the edge? The edge is basically where 00:12:39.179 --> 00:12:42.159 your personal web touches the outside world. 00:12:42.649 --> 00:12:45.289 These are your sense beliefs. Things like, I 00:12:45.289 --> 00:12:47.850 see a red coffee cup, or I hear a dog barking 00:12:47.850 --> 00:12:50.669 down the street. I smell burnt toast. These seem 00:12:50.669 --> 00:12:52.850 pretty disposable, honestly. Like, if I look 00:12:52.850 --> 00:12:54.909 closer and see the coffee cup is actually blue, 00:12:55.009 --> 00:12:57.029 I just say, oops, bad lighting, and I move on 00:12:57.029 --> 00:12:59.250 with my day. Right. Cutting a strand at the edge 00:12:59.250 --> 00:13:01.490 causes very little vibration in the rest of the 00:13:01.490 --> 00:13:03.769 web. It's a cheap fix. You don't have to rewrite 00:13:03.769 --> 00:13:05.750 your entire worldview just because you misread 00:13:05.750 --> 00:13:08.330 a stop sign. But the center of the web, that 00:13:08.330 --> 00:13:10.850 is a completely different story. The center is 00:13:10.850 --> 00:13:13.080 where the heavy lifters live. the fundamental 00:13:13.080 --> 00:13:16.559 laws of logic, the belief in an external world 00:13:16.559 --> 00:13:19.899 of physical objects, the basic principle of cause 00:13:19.899 --> 00:13:22.320 and effect, even the belief that you are the 00:13:22.320 --> 00:13:24.500 exact same person you were five minutes ago. 00:13:24.600 --> 00:13:26.379 These are the load -bearing walls of reality. 00:13:26.759 --> 00:13:29.100 Exactly. These central beliefs are connected 00:13:29.100 --> 00:13:31.960 to virtually everything else in the web. If you 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:34.080 try to casually cut the strand labeled basic 00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:37.620 logic, the entire structure collapses. If you 00:13:37.620 --> 00:13:41.320 decide that a statement like A and not A can 00:13:41.320 --> 00:13:43.700 somehow both be true at the exact same time, 00:13:43.840 --> 00:13:46.039 you literally can't make sense of anything anymore. 00:13:46.179 --> 00:13:48.500 Right. Your car would be both started and not 00:13:48.500 --> 00:13:50.679 started. You'd be both starving and completely 00:13:50.679 --> 00:13:54.500 full. It's chaos. Complete chaos. So when Quine 00:13:54.500 --> 00:13:56.519 talks in the source about ramifying consequences, 00:13:57.000 --> 00:13:59.200 he's talking about the catastrophic damage caused 00:13:59.200 --> 00:14:02.460 by removing a central belief. Yes. We are deeply 00:14:02.460 --> 00:14:04.600 conservative creatures when it comes to our minds. 00:14:04.659 --> 00:14:07.360 We want to do the absolute minimum amount of 00:14:07.360 --> 00:14:09.720 mental renovation necessary to explain whatever 00:14:09.720 --> 00:14:12.080 new data we encounter. That explains so much 00:14:12.080 --> 00:14:14.279 about human behavior, doesn't it? It really does. 00:14:14.600 --> 00:14:17.320 Let's apply this to a fun real -world scenario. 00:14:17.659 --> 00:14:20.019 The ghost example from the outline is perfect 00:14:20.019 --> 00:14:23.100 for this. I love this one. Okay, suppose you 00:14:23.100 --> 00:14:25.720 were walking through an old creepy house and 00:14:25.720 --> 00:14:29.110 you clearly see a translucent figure. Walk straight 00:14:29.110 --> 00:14:31.909 through a solid closed door. Now that is some 00:14:31.909 --> 00:14:34.970 serious, unfriendly evidence. Right. It completely 00:14:34.970 --> 00:14:37.610 assaults your web. Your central web says, people 00:14:37.610 --> 00:14:39.769 are solid and dead people don't walk around. 00:14:40.190 --> 00:14:43.470 But your edge web, your eye says, I just saw 00:14:43.470 --> 00:14:45.970 a ghost. So I'm forced to make a choice. I have 00:14:45.970 --> 00:14:48.230 to resolve this conflict quickly to stop my web 00:14:48.230 --> 00:14:51.429 from vibrating so violently. Option A. I just 00:14:51.429 --> 00:14:53.669 accept the ghost is real. But if you do that... 00:14:53.870 --> 00:14:55.389 Think about what you have to cut. You have to 00:14:55.389 --> 00:14:57.929 cut strands deep at the center. You have to drastically 00:14:57.929 --> 00:15:01.529 revise human biology, modern physics, and probably 00:15:01.529 --> 00:15:03.889 your entire theology. You have to accept that 00:15:03.889 --> 00:15:06.870 solid walls aren't actually barriers for everyone. 00:15:07.090 --> 00:15:09.929 That is a massive tearing hole in my web. Huge. 00:15:10.090 --> 00:15:12.950 It requires a total architectural overhaul of 00:15:12.950 --> 00:15:17.549 your entire reality. Okay, so, option B. I reject 00:15:17.549 --> 00:15:21.049 the literal evidence of my own eyes. I tell myself, 00:15:21.899 --> 00:15:24.240 I'm just really tired. It was a weird reflection 00:15:24.240 --> 00:15:26.720 from a passing car. Or maybe someone slipped 00:15:26.720 --> 00:15:28.940 something into my drink. In option B, you were 00:15:28.940 --> 00:15:31.860 just cutting one tiny flimsy strand at the very 00:15:31.860 --> 00:15:34.580 edge of the web. You're simply saying, my visual 00:15:34.580 --> 00:15:36.759 perception was slightly glitchy for about two 00:15:36.759 --> 00:15:40.299 seconds. And since we are efficient, or let's 00:15:40.299 --> 00:15:43.399 face it, mentally lazy, we almost always choose 00:15:43.399 --> 00:15:46.779 option B. We hold the laws of physics more stubbornly 00:15:46.779 --> 00:15:48.899 than we hold the immediate evidence of our own 00:15:48.899 --> 00:15:51.940 eyes. Exactly. We gladly sacrifice the raw sensory 00:15:51.940 --> 00:15:55.129 data just to save the central theory. And Quine 00:15:55.129 --> 00:15:57.250 says this isn't a flaw. This is entirely rational. 00:15:57.450 --> 00:16:00.929 It is highly pragmatic. Pragmatism. That is the 00:16:00.929 --> 00:16:03.009 key word to underline here. We don't fiercely 00:16:03.009 --> 00:16:04.690 protect the center because we know for a fact 00:16:04.690 --> 00:16:07.370 it's true in the capital T. We keep it because 00:16:07.370 --> 00:16:10.370 it is incredibly useful. Right. Logic and math 00:16:10.370 --> 00:16:12.110 are immensely useful. They help us predict the 00:16:12.110 --> 00:16:13.909 future. They help us build bridges that don't 00:16:13.909 --> 00:16:16.289 collapse. If they suddenly stop working, if bridges 00:16:16.289 --> 00:16:18.350 started falling down specifically because our 00:16:18.350 --> 00:16:20.649 math was wrong, we would absolutely change the 00:16:20.649 --> 00:16:22.710 math. This is all a little bit unsettling, though, 00:16:22.730 --> 00:16:25.799 isn't it? It implies that our deepest, most profound 00:16:25.799 --> 00:16:28.759 convictions aren't actually anchored in some 00:16:28.759 --> 00:16:31.340 objective bedrock. They're just anchored in, 00:16:31.460 --> 00:16:34.379 well, other convictions. It's what philosophers 00:16:34.379 --> 00:16:37.620 call coherentism. There really is no bottom foundation. 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:41.200 The web only hangs together because the pieces 00:16:41.200 --> 00:16:43.840 mutually support each other, not because the 00:16:43.840 --> 00:16:47.659 whole thing is hooked onto some skyhook of absolute 00:16:47.659 --> 00:16:50.639 objective truth. It's literally just a web floating 00:16:50.639 --> 00:16:54.100 in space. Correct. And honestly, this is exactly 00:16:54.100 --> 00:16:56.860 why it is so incredibly difficult to change someone's 00:16:56.860 --> 00:16:59.840 mind about deeply held things like politics or 00:16:59.840 --> 00:17:02.379 religion or even bizarre conspiracy theories. 00:17:02.500 --> 00:17:04.920 Oh, for sure. If you argue with a hardcore conspiracy 00:17:04.920 --> 00:17:07.180 theorist, you usually think you're just handing 00:17:07.180 --> 00:17:09.519 them a new helpful fact. Like, hey, look at this 00:17:09.519 --> 00:17:11.299 official document. You think you're just asking 00:17:11.299 --> 00:17:13.339 them to snip one tiny little string at the edge 00:17:13.339 --> 00:17:16.519 of their web? But for them, that specific fact 00:17:16.519 --> 00:17:19.819 might be hardwired directly to the very center 00:17:19.819 --> 00:17:23.279 of their web. If their core load -bearing belief 00:17:23.279 --> 00:17:26.160 is the government lies about absolutely everything 00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:28.819 and you show them a government document that 00:17:28.819 --> 00:17:31.759 proves them wrong, they literally cannot accept 00:17:31.759 --> 00:17:34.440 it. Because accepting it would mean tearing out 00:17:34.440 --> 00:17:36.839 the entire core of their worldview. Right. So 00:17:36.839 --> 00:17:38.559 they make a suitable adjustment. They just say 00:17:38.559 --> 00:17:41.279 the document is obviously fake. Or they say you 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:44.750 are a paid shill. They will cut the strand connecting 00:17:44.750 --> 00:17:47.589 to you and your credibility way before they cut 00:17:47.589 --> 00:17:49.430 the strand connecting to their core identity. 00:17:49.650 --> 00:17:51.430 They are just protecting the structural integrity 00:17:51.430 --> 00:17:53.869 of their mind. It's psychological self -defense. 00:17:54.609 --> 00:17:57.529 And the humbling part is we all do it. Every 00:17:57.529 --> 00:17:59.470 single one of us. We all have certain things 00:17:59.470 --> 00:18:02.130 we hold come what may. We all have evidence we 00:18:02.130 --> 00:18:03.950 refuse to look closely at because the mental 00:18:03.950 --> 00:18:05.730 cost of revision would just be too devastating. 00:18:06.829 --> 00:18:09.109 Quine leaves us in this really interesting, almost 00:18:09.109 --> 00:18:12.470 paradoxical position. On the one hand, he is 00:18:12.470 --> 00:18:15.049 the ultimate skeptic. Nothing is truly safe. 00:18:15.190 --> 00:18:17.970 Math, logic, hard science, it's all technically 00:18:17.970 --> 00:18:20.609 up for grabs. But on the other hand, he's incredibly 00:18:20.609 --> 00:18:23.730 conservative. He's saying, don't tear down the 00:18:23.730 --> 00:18:26.470 mental house unless you absolutely positively 00:18:26.470 --> 00:18:29.690 have to. It's a delicate balance between radical 00:18:29.690 --> 00:18:33.250 open -mindedness and basic sanity. You need a 00:18:33.250 --> 00:18:36.279 stable, stubborn web just to function. daily 00:18:36.279 --> 00:18:38.539 life. But you also need to remember that it is, 00:18:38.559 --> 00:18:40.539 at the end of the day, just a web. It's a model. 00:18:40.640 --> 00:18:42.859 It is not the world itself. The map is not the 00:18:42.859 --> 00:18:45.160 territory. And the map can always, always be 00:18:45.160 --> 00:18:47.000 redrawn. I do want to circle back to something 00:18:47.000 --> 00:18:49.200 we touched on a little earlier, the idea that 00:18:49.200 --> 00:18:51.160 this fundamentally changes how we see truth. 00:18:51.480 --> 00:18:53.480 Because if truth is just defined as whatever 00:18:53.480 --> 00:18:56.059 fits best in my personal web, does objective 00:18:56.059 --> 00:18:59.000 reality just completely disappear? That's definitely 00:18:59.000 --> 00:19:02.000 the danger zone people worry about. But Quine 00:19:02.000 --> 00:19:04.960 was actually a strict realist. He absolutely 00:19:04.960 --> 00:19:07.480 believed there is a real physical world out there. 00:19:07.579 --> 00:19:10.200 He believed in atoms and particles and gravity. 00:19:10.440 --> 00:19:12.480 But he believed that our human theory of that 00:19:12.480 --> 00:19:15.619 world is always underdetermined by the data. 00:19:16.339 --> 00:19:18.180 Underdetermined. Let's unpack that because it 00:19:18.180 --> 00:19:20.099 sounds like a concept we really need to get straight. 00:19:20.319 --> 00:19:22.640 It just means that for any given set of data, 00:19:22.839 --> 00:19:26.480 imagine a random set of dots on a graph. There 00:19:26.480 --> 00:19:28.779 are literally infinite lines you could draw to 00:19:28.779 --> 00:19:31.500 connect them. If you have five data points, you 00:19:31.500 --> 00:19:33.740 can draw a simple straight line or a wavy line 00:19:33.740 --> 00:19:35.640 or a crazy loop -the -loop that hits all five 00:19:35.640 --> 00:19:38.319 dots. And as a society, we basically pick the 00:19:38.319 --> 00:19:41.039 line called physics, but technically there could 00:19:41.039 --> 00:19:44.200 be a line called magic or simulation theory that 00:19:44.200 --> 00:19:46.519 connects those exact same dots just as well. 00:19:46.980 --> 00:19:49.450 Theoretically, yes. If you were willing to make 00:19:49.450 --> 00:19:51.930 the rest of the web complicated enough, you could 00:19:51.930 --> 00:19:54.329 invent a theory about an invisible magic demon 00:19:54.329 --> 00:19:56.710 that moves the planets around in exactly the 00:19:56.710 --> 00:19:59.349 same way gravity does. The observational data 00:19:59.349 --> 00:20:02.089 would look completely identical. But the theory 00:20:02.089 --> 00:20:04.170 itself would be an absolute mess to maintain. 00:20:04.569 --> 00:20:06.910 Exactly. So physics is just the simplest line. 00:20:07.049 --> 00:20:09.670 It's the most elegant. Yeah. So pragmatically, 00:20:09.730 --> 00:20:11.829 we stick with it. We choose the theory that gives 00:20:11.829 --> 00:20:14.309 us the most predictive power for the least amount 00:20:14.309 --> 00:20:17.210 of mental effort. We want a theory that connects 00:20:17.210 --> 00:20:19.950 the most dots with the fewest wild assumptions. 00:20:20.230 --> 00:20:22.670 We are basically bargain hunters for reality. 00:20:23.049 --> 00:20:25.589 That is a fantastic way to put it. We want the 00:20:25.589 --> 00:20:28.670 absolute most reality for the cheapest cognitive 00:20:28.670 --> 00:20:31.589 cost. We don't want to have to memorize the unique 00:20:31.589 --> 00:20:34.269 individual movements of every single falling 00:20:34.269 --> 00:20:37.269 object on Earth. We just want one simple law 00:20:37.269 --> 00:20:39.829 of gravity that explains them all at once. This 00:20:39.829 --> 00:20:41.829 connects so perfectly back to something we discuss 00:20:41.829 --> 00:20:44.970 a lot on this show, cognitive bias. We usually 00:20:44.970 --> 00:20:47.829 talk about bias like confirmation bias as a glitch 00:20:47.829 --> 00:20:49.529 in the human brain, like something that's broken. 00:20:49.869 --> 00:20:52.150 But Quine makes it sound like confirmation bias 00:20:52.150 --> 00:20:54.750 is actually a built -in feature of the web. In 00:20:54.750 --> 00:20:57.910 a fundamental way, yes. Confirmation bias is 00:20:57.910 --> 00:21:00.170 just us efficiently trying to protect the center 00:21:00.170 --> 00:21:03.950 of the web. If I have a strong core belief that 00:21:03.950 --> 00:21:06.730 people are generally good, and then I see someone 00:21:06.730 --> 00:21:09.200 do something clearly bad, I immediately interpret 00:21:09.200 --> 00:21:11.660 it as, oh, they just had a really bad day. I 00:21:11.660 --> 00:21:14.119 twist the new evidence to fit the existing web. 00:21:14.259 --> 00:21:16.420 Because if I fully accepted the alternative that 00:21:16.420 --> 00:21:18.740 people are inherently evil, I'd have to completely 00:21:18.740 --> 00:21:21.000 change how I treat my neighbors, how I raise 00:21:21.000 --> 00:21:23.579 my kids, and how I vote. The psychological cost 00:21:23.579 --> 00:21:26.440 is just way too high. Exactly. But Quine would 00:21:26.440 --> 00:21:29.740 also warn us, eventually, if enough bad things 00:21:29.740 --> 00:21:32.500 keep happening, the bad day excuse stops working. 00:21:32.919 --> 00:21:35.619 The web gets too tangled and messy to maintain. 00:21:35.799 --> 00:21:37.579 And that is exactly when the revolution happens. 00:21:37.859 --> 00:21:40.240 Paradigm shift. Right. Thomas Kuhn, who was another 00:21:40.240 --> 00:21:42.539 brilliant philosopher, popularized that exact 00:21:42.539 --> 00:21:44.920 term. But it's very closely related to Quine's 00:21:44.920 --> 00:21:47.279 work. A paradigm shift is when the web finally 00:21:47.279 --> 00:21:49.579 snaps. It's when you can no longer comfortably 00:21:49.579 --> 00:21:52.019 patch up the edges and the whole center collapses 00:21:52.019 --> 00:21:53.880 under the weight of the anomalies and you just 00:21:53.880 --> 00:21:55.960 have to build a new web from scratch. Kind of 00:21:55.960 --> 00:21:58.140 like going from the medieval belief that the 00:21:58.140 --> 00:22:01.019 Earth is the center of the universe to the modern 00:22:01.019 --> 00:22:03.700 understanding that the sun is the center. Perfect 00:22:03.700 --> 00:22:06.519 example. Yeah. For centuries, brilliant astronomers 00:22:06.519 --> 00:22:09.240 were making these desperate, suitable adjustments 00:22:09.240 --> 00:22:11.059 just to keep the Earth locked to the center. 00:22:11.119 --> 00:22:14.900 They invented epicycles, these incredibly weird, 00:22:15.000 --> 00:22:17.839 complicated loops that planets supposedly did 00:22:17.839 --> 00:22:20.440 in the sky just to make their flawed math work. 00:22:20.700 --> 00:22:23.259 They held the Earth -centric view come what may. 00:22:23.460 --> 00:22:26.299 Until the math just got so overwhelmingly messy 00:22:26.299 --> 00:22:28.480 that Copernicus finally stepped in and said, 00:22:28.579 --> 00:22:30.940 guys, if we just put the sun in the middle, all 00:22:30.940 --> 00:22:33.500 this mess instantly goes away. And the web was 00:22:33.500 --> 00:22:36.049 rebuilt. The center fundamentally shifted, and 00:22:36.049 --> 00:22:38.190 suddenly everything in the sky looked completely 00:22:38.190 --> 00:22:40.269 different. So let's wrap this up and look at 00:22:40.269 --> 00:22:42.190 the big takeaway for you listening. We started 00:22:42.190 --> 00:22:44.950 with this phrase, hold come what may. We learned 00:22:44.950 --> 00:22:47.869 that technically, logically, you can hold on 00:22:47.869 --> 00:22:50.250 to any belief forever if you're willing to twist 00:22:50.250 --> 00:22:52.829 your logic into a giant pretzel. But we also 00:22:52.829 --> 00:22:55.829 learned that pragmatically, we shouldn't. We 00:22:55.829 --> 00:22:58.730 should hold our central beliefs stubbornly, yes, 00:22:58.890 --> 00:23:03.019 but not infinitely. We have to be willing to 00:23:03.019 --> 00:23:05.799 let the web vibrate. We have to be willing to 00:23:05.799 --> 00:23:08.559 actually feel the tension when the outside world 00:23:08.559 --> 00:23:11.480 contradicts us. It's really about noticing when 00:23:11.480 --> 00:23:13.619 you are actively making those suitable adjustments 00:23:13.619 --> 00:23:16.559 in your own life. When you hear a political fact 00:23:16.559 --> 00:23:18.920 you don't like, do you immediately reflexively 00:23:18.920 --> 00:23:22.759 say, oh, that source is obviously biased or that 00:23:22.759 --> 00:23:25.200 study is totally flawed? Right. You have to pause 00:23:25.200 --> 00:23:27.880 and ask yourself. Am I rejecting this new information 00:23:27.880 --> 00:23:30.700 because it is actually false? Or am I just rejecting 00:23:30.700 --> 00:23:33.220 it because accepting it would force me to painfully 00:23:33.220 --> 00:23:36.039 rewire my entire brain? That is the really hard 00:23:36.039 --> 00:23:38.180 work of critical thinking. It's not just basic 00:23:38.180 --> 00:23:40.200 fact checking. It's serious web maintenance. 00:23:40.319 --> 00:23:42.839 It's constantly checking your own structural 00:23:42.839 --> 00:23:44.799 integrity. And sometimes, you know, you need 00:23:44.799 --> 00:23:46.779 a controlled demolition. Sometimes you just have 00:23:46.779 --> 00:23:49.559 to admit that a central belief, whether it's 00:23:49.559 --> 00:23:51.819 about a relationship, a career path, or a political 00:23:51.819 --> 00:23:54.900 ideology, is simply no longer supporting the 00:23:54.900 --> 00:23:57.000 weight of the reality you're experiencing. And 00:23:57.000 --> 00:23:58.990 you have to let it crash. And then you rebuild. 00:23:59.190 --> 00:24:01.670 And rebuild. Because that is how we actually 00:24:01.670 --> 00:24:03.869 learn. That's how scientific progress happens. 00:24:04.009 --> 00:24:06.390 And ultimately, it's how individual people grow. 00:24:06.750 --> 00:24:09.529 This deep dive into quine has been a serious 00:24:09.529 --> 00:24:12.589 mental workout. We've gone all the way from romantic 00:24:12.589 --> 00:24:15.789 sounding vows to the structural engineering of 00:24:15.789 --> 00:24:18.589 the human mind. It is incredibly dense stuff, 00:24:18.710 --> 00:24:22.099 but I find it liberating. It frees you from the 00:24:22.099 --> 00:24:25.000 exhausting idea that you have to be perfectly 00:24:25.000 --> 00:24:27.339 right about everything forever. You just have 00:24:27.339 --> 00:24:29.279 to have the best working model for right now. 00:24:29.420 --> 00:24:31.660 As we sign off today, I want to leave you, the 00:24:31.660 --> 00:24:34.160 listener, with a final provocation to mull over. 00:24:34.819 --> 00:24:37.460 We talked extensively about how we fiercely protect 00:24:37.460 --> 00:24:40.400 the center of our core beliefs almost at all 00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:43.539 costs. We constantly dismiss unfriendly evidence 00:24:43.539 --> 00:24:46.480 just to save them. But as we've seen, we also 00:24:46.480 --> 00:24:49.099 know the center can break. It has broken many 00:24:49.099 --> 00:24:51.640 times before in human history. Exactly. So here's 00:24:51.640 --> 00:24:53.779 the question I want you to think about. Pick 00:24:53.779 --> 00:24:56.559 one of your absolute untouchable core beliefs. 00:24:57.079 --> 00:24:59.619 Maybe it's a deep religious conviction. Maybe 00:24:59.619 --> 00:25:01.599 it's a foundational political stance. Or maybe 00:25:01.599 --> 00:25:04.039 it's just the quiet belief that you fundamentally 00:25:04.039 --> 00:25:07.140 are a good person. What would it take? Yeah. 00:25:07.160 --> 00:25:09.599 What specific piece of evidence would you have 00:25:09.599 --> 00:25:13.619 to see, hear, or experience firsthand that would 00:25:13.619 --> 00:25:15.740 force you to look in the mirror and say, I was 00:25:15.740 --> 00:25:17.980 wrong about everything? Because if you can't 00:25:17.980 --> 00:25:20.920 answer that question, if there is literally nothing 00:25:20.920 --> 00:25:24.240 that could ever change your mind under any circumstances, 00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:27.240 then you aren't really holding a belief anymore. 00:25:27.400 --> 00:25:29.599 You are holding a dogma. You've essentially stopped 00:25:29.599 --> 00:25:32.759 thinking. And as Quine showed us today, even 00:25:32.759 --> 00:25:34.819 the most basic laws of the universe shouldn't 00:25:34.819 --> 00:25:37.519 be held quite that tightly. It's a slightly scary 00:25:37.519 --> 00:25:40.200 thought, but honestly, that is exactly where 00:25:40.200 --> 00:25:42.480 the real growth happens. Thanks so much for diving 00:25:42.480 --> 00:25:43.900 deep with us today. See you next time.