WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.879 Picture this, if you will. It is May 21st, 2023. 00:00:03.459 --> 00:00:05.879 You are standing right in the absolute center 00:00:05.879 --> 00:00:08.259 of Qina, in the great National Assembly Square. 00:00:08.439 --> 00:00:11.000 It is a Sunday. The weather is actually holding 00:00:11.000 --> 00:00:13.279 up. And everywhere you look, as far as the eye 00:00:13.279 --> 00:00:16.239 can see, it is just this massive sea of flags. 00:00:16.660 --> 00:00:19.460 You've got the Moldovan tricolors, the blue, 00:00:19.539 --> 00:00:22.320 yellow, red, and you have the circle of stars 00:00:22.320 --> 00:00:25.100 on blue for the European Union. It was a massive 00:00:25.100 --> 00:00:26.660 visual statement. I mean, the police estimate 00:00:26.660 --> 00:00:29.420 about 75 ,000 people were there, journalists 00:00:29.420 --> 00:00:32.179 and the organizers. They were pushing that number 00:00:32.179 --> 00:00:35.140 closer to 100 ,000. Now, for a country the size 00:00:35.140 --> 00:00:37.020 of Moldova, we're talking about a population 00:00:37.020 --> 00:00:40.859 of roughly 2 .5 million. Getting nearly 100 ,000 00:00:40.859 --> 00:00:43.439 people into a single square is not just a crowd. 00:00:43.560 --> 00:00:45.539 That is a highly significant percentage of the 00:00:45.539 --> 00:00:47.920 entire demographic. Exactly. It is huge. And 00:00:47.920 --> 00:00:50.920 today we are doing a deep dive into this specific 00:00:50.920 --> 00:00:53.600 event, the European Moldova National Assembly. 00:00:53.820 --> 00:00:55.840 Now, that name sounds very official, doesn't 00:00:55.840 --> 00:00:57.979 it? Like a legislative session or some sort of 00:00:57.979 --> 00:01:00.399 constitutional convention. But it wasn't a parliament 00:01:00.399 --> 00:01:02.340 session at all. It was a rally. But here's a 00:01:02.340 --> 00:01:05.909 twist that makes. this so unique. It was a rally 00:01:05.909 --> 00:01:08.049 organized by the government. Which is the very 00:01:08.049 --> 00:01:10.450 first thing that really jumps out when you look 00:01:10.450 --> 00:01:12.129 at the source material. Usually, you know, in 00:01:12.129 --> 00:01:14.569 a healthy democracy or even a struggling one, 00:01:14.709 --> 00:01:17.489 people rally against the government to demand 00:01:17.489 --> 00:01:20.689 change. But here you have the government busing 00:01:20.689 --> 00:01:23.510 people in to demand. Well, the government essentially 00:01:23.510 --> 00:01:25.670 keeps doing what it's already doing. Right. It 00:01:25.670 --> 00:01:27.310 feels a little bit like inception, doesn't it? 00:01:27.349 --> 00:01:29.769 A rally within a government mandate. But we have 00:01:29.769 --> 00:01:32.290 a really fascinating stack of sources today to 00:01:32.290 --> 00:01:34.810 help us unpack this. We aren't just looking at 00:01:34.810 --> 00:01:37.269 the speeches from the stage. We have the official 00:01:37.269 --> 00:01:40.730 government decrees. We have the financial disclosures, 00:01:40.750 --> 00:01:43.689 which, spoiler alert, get very messy later on. 00:01:43.950 --> 00:01:46.329 And we have some academic analysis on something 00:01:46.329 --> 00:01:48.730 called soft power that really explains the why 00:01:48.730 --> 00:01:50.790 behind all of this. We are going to unpack why 00:01:50.790 --> 00:01:53.269 it happened. it was funded and that really stark 00:01:53.269 --> 00:01:55.870 contrast between this pro -European rally in 00:01:55.870 --> 00:01:58.069 the capital and the counter protests happening 00:01:58.069 --> 00:02:01.469 at the exact same time. And that why is absolutely 00:02:01.469 --> 00:02:03.989 crucial, because on the surface, it just looks 00:02:03.989 --> 00:02:06.590 like a giant party. But when you dig into the 00:02:06.590 --> 00:02:08.889 reports and the opposition response, you realize 00:02:08.889 --> 00:02:11.949 it was a highly strategic move to answer a very 00:02:11.949 --> 00:02:14.770 specific question. So let's get into it. President 00:02:14.770 --> 00:02:17.069 Maya Sandu announced this event back in April 00:02:17.069 --> 00:02:20.389 2023, and she was very explicit about the goal. 00:02:20.969 --> 00:02:23.129 Her stated purpose was to tell the world that 00:02:23.129 --> 00:02:25.590 we are Europeans and to finally answer the question, 00:02:25.789 --> 00:02:29.169 what do Moldovans want? That phrasing is heavy. 00:02:29.689 --> 00:02:32.469 What do Moldovans want? It implies that up until 00:02:32.469 --> 00:02:34.789 that exact moment, the answer was ambiguous. 00:02:35.150 --> 00:02:37.990 And historically, it has been. Moldova has been 00:02:37.990 --> 00:02:40.729 this classic swing state, balancing between East 00:02:40.729 --> 00:02:43.789 and West, between Russia and Europe. Sandu's 00:02:43.789 --> 00:02:46.710 administration, the PAS party, wanted to end 00:02:46.710 --> 00:02:49.169 that ambiguity. They wanted a definitive visual 00:02:49.169 --> 00:02:51.849 confirmation that the debate was over. So let's 00:02:51.849 --> 00:02:53.710 set the scene properly for you. Fast forward 00:02:53.710 --> 00:02:56.610 to May 21. The square is absolutely packed. And 00:02:56.610 --> 00:02:57.990 they didn't just bring out local politicians 00:02:57.990 --> 00:03:00.090 to speak. They brought out the heavy artillery 00:03:00.090 --> 00:03:03.250 of European diplomacy. They really did. The star 00:03:03.250 --> 00:03:05.750 guest of the day was Roberta Mazzola. The president 00:03:05.750 --> 00:03:07.849 of the European Parliament. Right. That is not 00:03:07.849 --> 00:03:09.990 some low -level bureaucrat sent to just shake 00:03:09.990 --> 00:03:12.590 hands and take photos. That is the very top tier 00:03:12.590 --> 00:03:16.370 of EU leadership. Her presence alone was a huge 00:03:16.370 --> 00:03:19.500 signal. But it was what she did on stage that 00:03:19.500 --> 00:03:22.580 really shifted the energy in the square. She 00:03:22.580 --> 00:03:24.199 didn't just give a generic speech in English. 00:03:24.280 --> 00:03:26.860 She actually switched to Romanian. No local language. 00:03:27.000 --> 00:03:29.340 Exactly. At the absolute climax of her speech, 00:03:29.419 --> 00:03:33.080 she shouted, Europa este Moldova. Moldova este 00:03:33.080 --> 00:03:35.939 Europa. Europe is Moldova. Moldova is Europe. 00:03:36.180 --> 00:03:38.840 Wow. I can imagine the crowd just went totally 00:03:38.840 --> 00:03:41.280 wild for that. It was electric. Because you have 00:03:41.280 --> 00:03:43.759 to remember, language in Moldova is deeply, deeply 00:03:43.759 --> 00:03:47.330 political. By speaking Romanian and by equating 00:03:47.330 --> 00:03:49.050 the national identity directly with European 00:03:49.050 --> 00:03:51.909 identity, she was validating the entire premise 00:03:51.909 --> 00:03:53.550 of the gathering. She was telling those tens 00:03:53.550 --> 00:03:55.710 of thousands of people, you belong with us. But 00:03:55.710 --> 00:03:58.090 looking at the program in our notes, it wasn't 00:03:58.090 --> 00:04:00.629 just suits and diplomats up on that stage. It 00:04:00.629 --> 00:04:02.789 seems like the organizers were trying to curate 00:04:02.789 --> 00:04:05.409 a very specific image of the whole society. That 00:04:05.409 --> 00:04:08.129 is a really key observation. If you only put 00:04:08.129 --> 00:04:11.110 politicians on stage, it just looks like a campaign 00:04:11.110 --> 00:04:13.409 rally. And they knew that. So they had artists, 00:04:13.530 --> 00:04:16.029 they had businessmen, farmers, writers. They 00:04:16.029 --> 00:04:18.689 even had Eugen Doga. The famous composer. The 00:04:18.689 --> 00:04:22.129 composer. He is arguably Moldova's most famous 00:04:22.129 --> 00:04:24.370 living cultural figure. I mean, his waltz is 00:04:24.370 --> 00:04:27.550 recognized by UNESCO. Having him there sent a 00:04:27.550 --> 00:04:29.910 very distinct message. It says this isn't just 00:04:29.910 --> 00:04:32.579 a government policy. This is our culture. This 00:04:32.579 --> 00:04:34.899 is the actual soul of the nation aligning with 00:04:34.899 --> 00:04:37.339 Europe. And then came the vote. Now, usually 00:04:37.339 --> 00:04:39.500 when we talk about votes on a deep dive, we are 00:04:39.500 --> 00:04:41.959 talking about ballot boxes, election monitors, 00:04:42.180 --> 00:04:44.920 checking IDs, you know, the boring bureaucratic 00:04:44.920 --> 00:04:47.339 stuff. This was very different. Very different. 00:04:47.480 --> 00:04:49.740 A resolution was read out loud to the crowd, 00:04:49.839 --> 00:04:53.439 and it had four massive core demands. One, enshrine 00:04:53.439 --> 00:04:56.120 EU accession in the Constitution. Two, target 00:04:56.120 --> 00:04:59.180 joining the EU by 2030. Three, start the actual 00:04:59.180 --> 00:05:01.980 session negotiations by the end of 2023. And 00:05:01.980 --> 00:05:04.500 four, an explicit condemnation of the Russian 00:05:04.500 --> 00:05:06.480 invasion of Ukraine. Those are huge demands. 00:05:06.620 --> 00:05:08.680 Changing the Constitution. Joining the EU in 00:05:08.680 --> 00:05:11.689 just seven years. Massive. And to pass this resolution, 00:05:11.949 --> 00:05:14.209 the moderator simply asked the massive crowd 00:05:14.209 --> 00:05:17.110 to raise their hands. A show of hands for a constitutional 00:05:17.110 --> 00:05:19.910 change. A literal show of hands. And looking 00:05:19.910 --> 00:05:23.029 at this huge sea of flags and hands, the moderator 00:05:23.029 --> 00:05:25.889 just declared unanimity. OK, I have to play the 00:05:25.889 --> 00:05:28.009 skeptic here for a second. I am looking at this 00:05:28.009 --> 00:05:30.790 from the outside. You have a government that 00:05:30.790 --> 00:05:32.730 already holds a clear majority in parliament. 00:05:33.170 --> 00:05:35.750 They control the presidency. They have the legislative 00:05:35.750 --> 00:05:39.209 power to pass laws or initiate actual referendums. 00:05:40.000 --> 00:05:42.500 Why do you need to pull 100 ,000 people into 00:05:42.500 --> 00:05:45.680 a square to raise their hands? What is the actual 00:05:45.680 --> 00:05:48.319 utility of this theater? Theater is the right 00:05:48.319 --> 00:05:50.620 word, but I really don't want to use it dismissively. 00:05:50.740 --> 00:05:53.000 This is exactly where we need to open up the 00:05:53.000 --> 00:05:55.399 academic side of our source deck. We have this 00:05:55.399 --> 00:05:58.439 fascinating analysis by Razvan Fonsea regarding 00:05:58.439 --> 00:06:01.019 the concept of soft power. We hear that term 00:06:01.019 --> 00:06:03.759 a lot. Usually it means movies, pop culture, 00:06:03.939 --> 00:06:06.920 music exports. How does soft power apply to a 00:06:06.920 --> 00:06:09.860 political rally? Fonsea argues that for a small, 00:06:09.939 --> 00:06:13.259 vulnerable state like Moldova, soft power is 00:06:13.259 --> 00:06:16.000 essentially a survival mechanism. Think about 00:06:16.000 --> 00:06:19.160 Moldova's geopolitical position. It has a separatist 00:06:19.160 --> 00:06:21.980 region in Transnistria with Russian troops stationed 00:06:21.980 --> 00:06:25.139 there. It has a relatively weak military. It 00:06:25.139 --> 00:06:27.199 simply cannot force its neighbors to respect 00:06:27.199 --> 00:06:29.879 it through hard power, meaning guns and tanks. 00:06:30.040 --> 00:06:32.740 So it has to use soft power, which is narrative, 00:06:32.920 --> 00:06:36.100 legitimacy, and international image. So the argument 00:06:36.100 --> 00:06:38.439 is that Sandu was building a solid state project 00:06:38.439 --> 00:06:41.399 out of optics. Precisely. Fonsea argues that 00:06:41.399 --> 00:06:43.759 Sandu's strategy was to turn Moldova's vulnerabilities 00:06:43.759 --> 00:06:47.379 into a strategic advantage. By getting the public 00:06:47.379 --> 00:06:49.779 to physically show up and participate, they aren't 00:06:49.779 --> 00:06:51.740 just observers anymore. They're being positioned 00:06:51.740 --> 00:06:54.319 as the actual creators of the state's pro -European 00:06:54.319 --> 00:06:57.100 path. So it is psychological buy -in. If I stand 00:06:57.100 --> 00:06:58.800 out there in the sun for four hours and raise 00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:00.399 my hand in the air, I am personally invested 00:07:00.399 --> 00:07:02.639 in this EU goal. I have committed to it physically. 00:07:03.180 --> 00:07:06.199 That is exactly it. It is sort of the IKEA effect 00:07:06.199 --> 00:07:08.639 applied to nation building. If you help assemble 00:07:08.639 --> 00:07:11.600 it, you value it more. And Fonsi points out that 00:07:11.600 --> 00:07:14.019 this assembly wasn't an isolated event. It was 00:07:14.019 --> 00:07:17.120 actually part of a specific triad of events designed 00:07:17.120 --> 00:07:19.980 to build this narrative. A triad. What were the 00:07:19.980 --> 00:07:22.379 other two pieces? Think of it as a three -part 00:07:22.379 --> 00:07:24.720 marketing campaign for the country. Part one 00:07:24.720 --> 00:07:27.660 was actually the Eurovision Song Contest. In 00:07:27.660 --> 00:07:31.259 2022 and 2023, Moldova's entries were heavily 00:07:31.259 --> 00:07:34.720 folk -inspired, pushing a distinct pro -European 00:07:34.720 --> 00:07:37.259 but very traditional national identity. That 00:07:37.259 --> 00:07:39.399 is the cultural signal. Okay, so Eurovision is 00:07:39.399 --> 00:07:41.540 step one. Step two is this national assembly 00:07:41.540 --> 00:07:44.839 on May 21, the domestic show of force, the voice 00:07:44.839 --> 00:07:47.209 of the people. And step three happened just 10 00:07:47.209 --> 00:07:50.290 days later on June 1st, the second European Political 00:07:50.290 --> 00:07:52.550 Community Summit. Right. That was a big one held 00:07:52.550 --> 00:07:55.009 at the winery in Bulbuwaka. All the major European 00:07:55.009 --> 00:07:57.110 leaders showed up, Macron, Schultz, everyone. 00:07:57.490 --> 00:08:00.089 Exactly. So look at the narrative arc they built. 00:08:00.610 --> 00:08:03.230 First, we assert our culture with Eurovision. 00:08:03.769 --> 00:08:06.649 Second, the people speak at the assembly. Third, 00:08:06.930 --> 00:08:09.980 Europe listens at the summit. It creates this 00:08:09.980 --> 00:08:12.779 sense of inevitable momentum that a simple law 00:08:12.779 --> 00:08:15.279 passed in a quiet parliament building could never 00:08:15.279 --> 00:08:17.779 achieve. That makes a ton of sense from a strategic 00:08:17.779 --> 00:08:20.839 branding perspective. You are creating a story 00:08:20.839 --> 00:08:24.199 where the ending, meaning EU membership, feels 00:08:24.199 --> 00:08:27.060 completely written in the stars. But branding 00:08:27.060 --> 00:08:29.500 usually tries to hide the competition. And in 00:08:29.500 --> 00:08:31.360 this case, the competition was quite literally 00:08:31.360 --> 00:08:33.700 down the road. The split screen. This is a crucial 00:08:33.700 --> 00:08:35.700 part of the story because while the cameras in 00:08:35.700 --> 00:08:37.960 Chino were focused on the EU flags, there was 00:08:37.960 --> 00:08:39.840 a completely different reality playing out in 00:08:39.840 --> 00:08:41.600 other cities. This is where we get to the opposition, 00:08:41.820 --> 00:08:44.519 specifically the ALO party. Yes. The opposition 00:08:44.519 --> 00:08:47.799 or party organized counter rallies in Orhe, Comrade 00:08:47.799 --> 00:08:51.940 and Bali on the exact same day. Now, to be impartial 00:08:51.940 --> 00:08:53.980 and just look at the facts of who they are, this 00:08:53.980 --> 00:08:56.580 is a party led by a fugitive oligarch, and they 00:08:56.580 --> 00:08:58.539 are widely recognized as being aligned with Russian 00:08:58.539 --> 00:09:00.950 interests. What were they actually asking for 00:09:00.950 --> 00:09:02.929 at these counter rallies? Because presumably 00:09:02.929 --> 00:09:05.350 they weren't out there cheering for Roberta Mazzola. 00:09:05.730 --> 00:09:08.389 Far from it. They were demanding a referendum 00:09:08.389 --> 00:09:12.009 on foreign policy. Their core argument was basically, 00:09:12.169 --> 00:09:14.730 you can't just gather your friends in a square 00:09:14.730 --> 00:09:16.649 and declare the country's future is settled. 00:09:17.070 --> 00:09:20.450 If you are so sure Moldovans want Europe, put 00:09:20.450 --> 00:09:23.690 it to a real vote, a ballot box vote. And what 00:09:23.690 --> 00:09:25.789 were their numbers like? Because matching 100 00:09:25.789 --> 00:09:28.110 ,000 people in the capital is a pretty high bar 00:09:28.110 --> 00:09:31.009 to clear. The Ayora party claimed they had 60 00:09:31.009 --> 00:09:33.450 ,000 participants across those three cities. 00:09:33.830 --> 00:09:37.090 Now, as with all protest numbers, you might want 00:09:37.090 --> 00:09:38.690 to view that with a critical eye, especially 00:09:38.690 --> 00:09:40.769 compared to the police estimates for the main 00:09:40.769 --> 00:09:43.289 rally. But even if it was a fraction of that 00:09:43.289 --> 00:09:45.809 claim, it still represents a notable chunk of 00:09:45.809 --> 00:09:47.649 the population that is actively rejecting the 00:09:47.649 --> 00:09:49.830 government's European narrative. But here's where 00:09:49.830 --> 00:09:51.490 it gets a little messy regarding those democratic 00:09:51.490 --> 00:09:53.990 norms we mentioned. I was reading the reports 00:09:53.990 --> 00:09:57.139 about a blockade. Yes. This is a major point 00:09:57.139 --> 00:09:59.419 of controversy in our sources. The government 00:09:59.419 --> 00:10:01.820 used the commission for extraordinary situations 00:10:01.820 --> 00:10:05.080 to prevent opposition parties from holding counter 00:10:05.080 --> 00:10:08.100 rallies inside Chenino. Wait, explain that process. 00:10:08.399 --> 00:10:10.840 The opposition wanted to protest in the Capitol, 00:10:10.980 --> 00:10:12.940 but the government just said no? Essentially, 00:10:12.960 --> 00:10:16.289 yes. The opposition sources state that they had 00:10:16.289 --> 00:10:18.470 obtained legal authorization for their protests 00:10:18.470 --> 00:10:21.649 well in advance, but the government invoked the 00:10:21.649 --> 00:10:24.129 Commission for Extraordinary Situations, which 00:10:24.129 --> 00:10:26.690 is an emergency power body originally set up 00:10:26.690 --> 00:10:29.009 because of the war next door, to block them from 00:10:29.009 --> 00:10:31.080 the Capitol on that specific day. That feels 00:10:31.080 --> 00:10:33.580 like it raises some serious questions. If you 00:10:33.580 --> 00:10:36.019 are throwing a massive rally celebrating European 00:10:36.019 --> 00:10:39.120 democratic values, blocking the opposition from 00:10:39.120 --> 00:10:41.039 entering the capital seems a bit contradictory. 00:10:41.340 --> 00:10:44.500 And the opposition seized on that exact contradiction. 00:10:44.840 --> 00:10:47.679 They called it a dictatorship disguised as democracy. 00:10:48.679 --> 00:10:51.480 Journalists from Radio Free Europe actually witnessed 00:10:51.480 --> 00:10:54.279 anti -government groups being physically stopped 00:10:54.279 --> 00:10:57.399 at the entrances to China. The police officially 00:10:57.399 --> 00:11:00.620 claimed no incidents took place. But the reported 00:11:00.620 --> 00:11:03.200 reality on the ground was that dissent was actively 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:06.100 kept out of the frame. So the unanimity in the 00:11:06.100 --> 00:11:08.139 square was partly achieved because the people 00:11:08.139 --> 00:11:10.600 who strongly disagreed weren't allowed to enter 00:11:10.600 --> 00:11:12.960 the square. That is the primary criticism. You 00:11:12.960 --> 00:11:15.220 can have unanimity much easier if you control 00:11:15.220 --> 00:11:17.019 the guest list. And looking at the reactions, 00:11:17.139 --> 00:11:19.399 it wasn't just the pro -Russian opposition complaining, 00:11:19.559 --> 00:11:22.009 right? I saw that even some pro -European allies 00:11:22.009 --> 00:11:24.049 were pretty unhappy with the whole thing. That 00:11:24.049 --> 00:11:26.210 is a crucial nuance to highlight. This wasn't 00:11:26.210 --> 00:11:28.450 just a simple pro -Russia versus pro -Europe 00:11:28.450 --> 00:11:31.509 binary. The Dignity and Truth Platform, which 00:11:31.509 --> 00:11:33.809 is actually a pro -European party and a former 00:11:33.809 --> 00:11:37.009 ally of the ruling PAS party, accused the government 00:11:37.009 --> 00:11:39.509 of using this event for purely electoral reasons. 00:11:39.789 --> 00:11:41.750 Because local elections were coming up later 00:11:41.750 --> 00:11:44.769 that same year. Exactly. Their argument was that 00:11:44.769 --> 00:11:47.230 the government was using state resources and 00:11:47.230 --> 00:11:49.649 a national holiday atmosphere to boost their 00:11:49.649 --> 00:11:52.370 falling approval ratings ahead of the vote. They 00:11:52.370 --> 00:11:55.529 essentially saw it as a massive campaign rally 00:11:55.529 --> 00:11:58.450 disguised as a national assembly. And speaking 00:11:58.450 --> 00:12:00.889 of state resources, we have to talk about the 00:12:00.889 --> 00:12:03.960 money. Because nothing gets people quite as riled 00:12:03.960 --> 00:12:07.279 up as government spending disclosures. The receipts. 00:12:07.480 --> 00:12:10.179 Yes, the receipts. So initially, the government 00:12:10.179 --> 00:12:12.360 didn't really want to say how much this whole 00:12:12.360 --> 00:12:14.419 production cost. Which is never a good look for 00:12:14.419 --> 00:12:17.080 transparency. No, it isn't. But eventually, they 00:12:17.080 --> 00:12:19.399 did disclose the figures. The total estimated 00:12:19.399 --> 00:12:23.159 cost to the public was 4 .7 million lei. To put 00:12:23.159 --> 00:12:24.899 that in perspective for you, that is roughly 00:12:24.899 --> 00:12:28.559 250 ,000 euros. For a national government budget, 00:12:28.700 --> 00:12:31.179 that is not exactly bankrupting the nation. But 00:12:31.179 --> 00:12:33.259 in Moldova, where the average pension is quite 00:12:33.259 --> 00:12:36.799 low, 4 .7 million lei is a number that really 00:12:36.799 --> 00:12:39.100 resonates with the public. OK, I have the actual 00:12:39.100 --> 00:12:40.740 financial breakdown right here. And some of these 00:12:40.740 --> 00:12:44.019 line items are just wild. One million lei was 00:12:44.019 --> 00:12:46.580 spent on flags. That is the official figure. 00:12:46.639 --> 00:12:49.000 They spent a million lei to distribute 4 ,000 00:12:49.000 --> 00:12:51.259 flags to the participants. I am doing the math 00:12:51.259 --> 00:12:55.279 in my head right now. That is 250 lei per flag. 00:12:56.139 --> 00:12:58.419 For a handheld rally flag. That seems like a 00:12:58.419 --> 00:13:01.000 very premium price. It is certainly a high markup. 00:13:01.000 --> 00:13:03.940 And critics jumped on that immediately. Why is 00:13:03.940 --> 00:13:06.840 the state spending a million lie on literal props 00:13:06.840 --> 00:13:09.679 when everyday people are struggling with severe 00:13:09.679 --> 00:13:12.149 inflation? But the thing that really stood out 00:13:12.149 --> 00:13:13.929 to me in these disclosures, and this feels like 00:13:13.929 --> 00:13:16.149 it belongs in a tabloid, was the payments to 00:13:16.149 --> 00:13:19.009 the performers. This caused a huge scandal, didn't 00:13:19.009 --> 00:13:20.970 it? It really did. It highlighted a financial 00:13:20.970 --> 00:13:24.070 disparity that upset a lot of people. So you 00:13:24.070 --> 00:13:25.889 had these professional orchestras playing at 00:13:25.889 --> 00:13:28.710 the event. Three of them received $100 ,000 each. 00:13:29.149 --> 00:13:31.850 $100 ,000. Okay. One of those specific orchestras 00:13:31.850 --> 00:13:34.690 happened to be led by the brother of a PAS deputy. 00:13:35.029 --> 00:13:38.370 Oh. See, that is exactly the kind of detail that 00:13:38.370 --> 00:13:40.950 makes voters cynical. Even if they're the absolute 00:13:40.950 --> 00:13:43.549 best orchestra in the country, the optics of 00:13:43.549 --> 00:13:46.570 paying a ruling party deputy's brother 100 ,000 00:13:46.570 --> 00:13:49.769 live from state funds are just terrible. It gets 00:13:49.769 --> 00:13:51.870 much worse when you compare it to the other performers. 00:13:52.110 --> 00:13:54.850 Remember Eugen Doga, the famous composer we mentioned 00:13:54.850 --> 00:13:57.730 earlier, the ultimate national icon. The guy 00:13:57.730 --> 00:14:00.470 they put front and center to show cultural unity 00:14:00.470 --> 00:14:04.029 to the world. Right. He received 12 ,500 lei. 00:14:04.269 --> 00:14:08.460 Wait. Let me get this straight. 100 ,000 for 00:14:08.460 --> 00:14:10.539 the orchestra connected to the deputy's brother 00:14:10.539 --> 00:14:15.019 and only 12 ,500 for the national icon. Correct. 00:14:15.120 --> 00:14:18.279 And the real kicker in the disclosure, the Teleradio 00:14:18.279 --> 00:14:20.340 Moldova Choir performed as well. That is the 00:14:20.340 --> 00:14:23.000 public broadcaster's choir. There were 30 people 00:14:23.000 --> 00:14:25.340 in that choir. 30 people. What did they get? 00:14:25.539 --> 00:14:28.740 5 ,000 lei. Wait, total? Total. For the entire 00:14:28.740 --> 00:14:31.580 group. That is wild. For 30 people, that is what, 00:14:31.620 --> 00:14:34.899 roughly 160 lei a person? Roughly, yes. That 00:14:34.899 --> 00:14:37.779 is about 8 euros each. That barely covers a quick 00:14:37.779 --> 00:14:39.759 lunch and the bus ride home. So you have the 00:14:39.759 --> 00:14:42.139 government spending a million on flags, handing 00:14:42.139 --> 00:14:44.639 100 ,000 to politically connected orchestras, 00:14:44.659 --> 00:14:47.039 and giving the public choir lunch money. Exactly. 00:14:47.179 --> 00:14:50.080 And that is exactly why this became a massive 00:14:50.080 --> 00:14:52.279 headline. It wasn't just about spending money 00:14:52.279 --> 00:14:54.759 on a rally. It was about how that money was allocated. 00:14:55.039 --> 00:15:00.600 It reinforced the exact narrative of And this 00:15:00.600 --> 00:15:04.960 feeds right into the critique from Irina Vla, 00:15:05.200 --> 00:15:08.059 the governor of Gagotia. Right. She made a very 00:15:08.059 --> 00:15:10.360 pointed argument that Moldova was under an official 00:15:10.360 --> 00:15:12.700 state of emergency at the time. Her position 00:15:12.700 --> 00:15:15.460 was, look, we are in a crisis. We have a severe 00:15:15.460 --> 00:15:18.480 energy crisis. We have a literal war next door. 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:22.320 We should be spending every available loo on... 00:15:22.559 --> 00:15:25.940 Pensions, salaries and quality of life, not throwing 00:15:25.940 --> 00:15:28.159 a massive party in the city square. It is the 00:15:28.159 --> 00:15:30.759 classic guns versus butter debate, or I guess 00:15:30.759 --> 00:15:33.159 in this specific case, flags versus pensions. 00:15:33.279 --> 00:15:35.419 Exactly. And for the average citizen who might 00:15:35.419 --> 00:15:37.500 be struggling just to pay high gas prices to 00:15:37.500 --> 00:15:40.200 heat their home, seeing one million lieu dropped 00:15:40.200 --> 00:15:42.779 on flags can be incredibly frustrating, regardless 00:15:42.779 --> 00:15:45.100 of how much they actually support the EU integration. 00:15:45.360 --> 00:15:47.600 It just feels disconnected from the reality of 00:15:47.600 --> 00:15:50.139 daily survival. So we have this really intense 00:15:50.139 --> 00:15:52.600 tension. On one hand, it was a highly successful, 00:15:52.860 --> 00:15:55.720 massive display of soft power and national unity. 00:15:55.940 --> 00:15:58.120 On the other hand, it faced serious accusations 00:15:58.120 --> 00:16:00.840 of waste, electoral maneuvering and stifling 00:16:00.840 --> 00:16:03.320 the opposition. How did the world react to all 00:16:03.320 --> 00:16:05.600 this? Did the soft power strategy actually work 00:16:05.600 --> 00:16:07.720 on the international stage? It certainly seems 00:16:07.720 --> 00:16:10.559 so. The U .S. Embassy was very vocal in its support. 00:16:11.000 --> 00:16:13.879 Ambassador Kent D. Logsdon actually attended 00:16:13.879 --> 00:16:16.740 the rally personally. That is a very strong diplomatic 00:16:16.740 --> 00:16:19.960 signal. It is. He stated he was there to demonstrate 00:16:19.960 --> 00:16:22.919 a firm commitment to Moldova's democratic, prosperous 00:16:22.919 --> 00:16:26.240 and secure future. And the U .S. embassy released 00:16:26.240 --> 00:16:28.679 an official message saying they were proud to 00:16:28.679 --> 00:16:31.919 support Moldova's European pass. So purely in 00:16:31.919 --> 00:16:33.879 terms of signaling to the West that Moldova is 00:16:33.879 --> 00:16:36.580 ready, the rally was an undeniable success. And 00:16:36.580 --> 00:16:38.480 it wasn't just happening in Hachino, right? The 00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:40.799 diaspora showed up in a big way, too. Yes. And 00:16:40.799 --> 00:16:42.580 this is deeply important because the Moldovan 00:16:42.580 --> 00:16:45.500 diaspora is huge and economically vital to the 00:16:45.500 --> 00:16:48.159 country. There were simultaneous solidarity protests 00:16:48.159 --> 00:16:50.980 organized in major European cities like Paris, 00:16:51.159 --> 00:16:54.419 Rome and London. So the overarching image projected 00:16:54.419 --> 00:16:58.039 was of a global Moldovan community entirely united 00:16:58.039 --> 00:17:01.039 for this single cause. So if we zoom out from 00:17:01.039 --> 00:17:03.639 the event itself, what does this actually represent 00:17:03.639 --> 00:17:05.799 going forward? We had that resolution demanding 00:17:05.799 --> 00:17:08.579 to join the EU by 2030. Is that in any way realistic? 00:17:08.920 --> 00:17:11.539 Well, the resolution called for starting negotiations 00:17:11.539 --> 00:17:16.069 by the end of 2023. Amazingly, looking at the 00:17:16.069 --> 00:17:18.430 historical timeline, the European Council actually 00:17:18.430 --> 00:17:21.150 did decide to open accession negotiations in 00:17:21.150 --> 00:17:24.450 December 2023. So that part of the mandate was 00:17:24.450 --> 00:17:27.269 officially fulfilled. But the 2030 target, that 00:17:27.269 --> 00:17:29.690 is less than four years away now. That is extremely 00:17:29.690 --> 00:17:32.650 ambitious. The resolution demands this specific 00:17:32.650 --> 00:17:35.710 goal be enshrined in the Constitution. But as 00:17:35.710 --> 00:17:37.630 we discussed with the theater of it all, you 00:17:37.630 --> 00:17:39.710 can't actually change a constitution with a show 00:17:39.710 --> 00:17:41.809 of hands in a square. You need a parliamentary 00:17:41.809 --> 00:17:45.410 supermajority or a legally binding national referendum. 00:17:45.900 --> 00:17:48.000 And that requires a completely different, much 00:17:48.000 --> 00:17:50.359 more rigorous legal process than just hosting 00:17:50.359 --> 00:17:52.799 a rally. Exactly. The rally gave the government 00:17:52.799 --> 00:17:55.740 a sort of moral mandate to push for those legal 00:17:55.740 --> 00:17:57.940 changes. They can point to the drone photos of 00:17:57.940 --> 00:18:00.240 the square and say the people demand this, but 00:18:00.240 --> 00:18:02.160 they still have to do the incredibly hard work 00:18:02.160 --> 00:18:04.700 of judicial reform, fighting entrenched corruption 00:18:04.700 --> 00:18:07.259 and actually aligning the domestic economy with 00:18:07.259 --> 00:18:10.039 EU standards. And as we saw with the budget for 00:18:10.039 --> 00:18:13.140 the rally itself, nepotism accusations, the bizarre 00:18:13.140 --> 00:18:15.940 spending disparities, fighting corruption is 00:18:15.940 --> 00:18:18.660 clearly still a work in progress. That is the 00:18:18.660 --> 00:18:21.319 central irony of the source material. The event 00:18:21.319 --> 00:18:23.920 was meant to showcase European values of transparency 00:18:23.920 --> 00:18:27.539 and democracy, but the execution displayed some 00:18:27.539 --> 00:18:30.880 of the exact old habits that keep Moldova from 00:18:30.880 --> 00:18:33.680 fully integrating. It is really interesting how 00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:36.240 these political mechanisms work. You create the 00:18:36.240 --> 00:18:38.599 image of absolute inevitability. You tell the 00:18:38.599 --> 00:18:40.640 world, look at this massive crowd, look at the 00:18:40.640 --> 00:18:42.920 sea of flags, look at the European leaders on 00:18:42.920 --> 00:18:45.440 our stage. This is happening whether you like 00:18:45.440 --> 00:18:47.960 it or not. That is the pure essence of political 00:18:47.960 --> 00:18:49.920 theater. And again, I don't use theater in a 00:18:49.920 --> 00:18:52.740 derogatory way at all. Politics requires powerful 00:18:52.740 --> 00:18:54.779 symbols. It requires a compelling narrative. 00:18:55.059 --> 00:18:57.359 Sandu needed to show that the pro -Russian protests 00:18:57.359 --> 00:18:59.680 weren't the only voice in the country. She needed 00:18:59.680 --> 00:19:02.079 a bigger, louder, more colorful voice. And she 00:19:02.079 --> 00:19:04.960 absolutely got it. But at a real cost, both financially 00:19:04.960 --> 00:19:08.119 with the 4 .7 million lei and politically with 00:19:08.119 --> 00:19:10.400 the serious accusations of excluding the opposition 00:19:10.400 --> 00:19:13.619 through emergency powers. Politics is always 00:19:13.619 --> 00:19:16.119 a calculated tradeoff. The government clearly 00:19:16.119 --> 00:19:19.019 calculated that the global image of 100 ,000 00:19:19.019 --> 00:19:21.660 people cheering for Europe was... totally worth 00:19:21.660 --> 00:19:24.420 the domestic criticism over the flag budget or 00:19:24.420 --> 00:19:27.099 the block counter protests. They bet that the 00:19:27.099 --> 00:19:29.319 visual of unity would outlast the nuisance headlines 00:19:29.319 --> 00:19:32.599 about the choir's lunch money. It really highlights 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:35.279 the sheer complexity of Moldovan politics for 00:19:35.279 --> 00:19:37.539 you. You have this massive geopolitical shift 00:19:37.539 --> 00:19:40.599 happening, trying to actively break away from 00:19:40.599 --> 00:19:43.400 Russia's historical sphere of influence and sprint 00:19:43.400 --> 00:19:46.039 toward Brussels. And it is playing out loudly 00:19:46.039 --> 00:19:48.099 in city squares, not just in closed -door diplomatic 00:19:48.099 --> 00:19:50.599 meetings. And the stakes honestly couldn't be 00:19:50.599 --> 00:19:52.980 higher. With the war in Ukraine right next door, 00:19:53.079 --> 00:19:54.900 this wasn't just a rally for better agricultural 00:19:54.900 --> 00:19:57.759 trade deals. The explicit condemnation of the 00:19:57.759 --> 00:20:00.099 Russian invasion in that resolution makes it 00:20:00.099 --> 00:20:03.170 a hard security issue. It is an existential choice 00:20:03.170 --> 00:20:05.170 for the survival of the country. Which perfectly 00:20:05.170 --> 00:20:07.190 explains why the U .S. ambassador was standing 00:20:07.190 --> 00:20:09.710 there and why the European Parliament president 00:20:09.710 --> 00:20:12.589 was speaking Romanian from the stage. They aren't 00:20:12.589 --> 00:20:14.869 just supporting a local policy. They are supporting 00:20:14.869 --> 00:20:17.829 a massive geopolitical alignment. They are trying 00:20:17.829 --> 00:20:21.289 to secure a flank on the European map. Precisely. 00:20:21.289 --> 00:20:24.329 They were there to say, we see you, we hear you, 00:20:24.369 --> 00:20:26.859 and we accept your choice. So we have covered 00:20:26.859 --> 00:20:29.319 the scene, the soft power strategy, the messy 00:20:29.319 --> 00:20:32.359 money and the political backlash. It is incredible 00:20:32.359 --> 00:20:34.559 how much depth and contradiction there is to 00:20:34.559 --> 00:20:37.759 just one single afternoon in May. It really serves 00:20:37.759 --> 00:20:40.839 as a perfect microcosm of the entire pro -European 00:20:40.839 --> 00:20:43.519 effort in Moldova. You see the genuine enthusiasm, 00:20:43.900 --> 00:20:45.579 the logistical challenges, the deep internal 00:20:45.579 --> 00:20:48.539 divisions and the sheer cost, both financial 00:20:48.539 --> 00:20:51.579 and democratic, of trying to rapidly pivot a 00:20:51.579 --> 00:20:53.859 country's entire direction. And the role of the 00:20:53.859 --> 00:20:55.859 everyday people in that pivot. Whether they are 00:20:55.859 --> 00:20:57.720 standing in the square cheering or out in the 00:20:57.720 --> 00:20:59.819 provinces protesting or just sitting at home 00:20:59.819 --> 00:21:01.799 wondering why the National Choir only got paid 00:21:01.799 --> 00:21:04.880 160 lei. Every single reaction tells part of 00:21:04.880 --> 00:21:06.740 the story. Yeah. You really can't understand 00:21:06.740 --> 00:21:08.720 the event without looking at the people who weren't 00:21:08.720 --> 00:21:10.339 allowed there just as much as the people who 00:21:10.339 --> 00:21:12.140 were. Before we wrap up, I want to leave you 00:21:12.140 --> 00:21:14.599 with something to really mull over. We talked 00:21:14.599 --> 00:21:17.660 about that vote by a show of hands. The declared 00:21:17.660 --> 00:21:20.480 unanimity. Right. And here's the question I want 00:21:20.480 --> 00:21:23.430 to leave hanging for you. In a modern democracy, 00:21:23.890 --> 00:21:26.990 what is the true measure of a mandate? Is it 00:21:26.990 --> 00:21:29.829 the quiet, messy, often disappointing process 00:21:29.829 --> 00:21:33.029 of checking boxes on a ballot paper? Or is it 00:21:33.029 --> 00:21:35.750 the overwhelming visual of a packed square declaring 00:21:35.750 --> 00:21:38.630 unanimity while the dissenters are legally blocked 00:21:38.630 --> 00:21:40.930 at the city gates? And what happens when the 00:21:40.930 --> 00:21:42.930 next government, maybe one with completely different 00:21:42.930 --> 00:21:46.150 values, uses this exact same soft power playbook? 00:21:46.509 --> 00:21:49.109 If you legitimize a show of hands in a curated 00:21:49.109 --> 00:21:51.890 square as the ultimate democratic mandate, you 00:21:51.890 --> 00:21:54.430 might just be handing a very powerful, very dangerous 00:21:54.430 --> 00:21:57.950 tool to whoever holds the microphone next. It 00:21:57.950 --> 00:22:00.430 is a profound question of legitimacy versus optics. 00:22:00.769 --> 00:22:03.470 The rally provided the optics. The elections 00:22:03.470 --> 00:22:05.970 provide the legitimacy. But history is very often 00:22:05.970 --> 00:22:08.420 written by the people with the best optics. A 00:22:08.420 --> 00:22:11.559 truly fascinating tension. That is all for this 00:22:11.559 --> 00:22:14.140 deep dive into the European Moldova National 00:22:14.140 --> 00:22:16.579 Assembly. Thanks for unpacking all these sources 00:22:16.579 --> 00:22:19.019 with me. Always a pleasure to dig into it. And 00:22:19.019 --> 00:22:21.099 thank you for joining us. We will catch you on 00:22:21.099 --> 00:22:22.119 the next deep dive.