WEBVTT

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Okay, so let's unpack this term, false positive.

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Right. If you walk into a doctor's office. or

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you're running some kind of statistical model,

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a false positive is usually just an annoyance.

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Yeah, it's a glitch. Exactly. It's a test telling

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you that you have a condition when you're actually

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perfectly healthy. It's a data error. But today

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we are looking at a moment in history where that

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sterile clinical term was used to cover up something

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absolutely horrific. It really is. It's one of

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the most chilling euphemisms in modern history,

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I think. Because we aren't talking about lab

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results or broken algorithms here. No. In Colombia,

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specifically between 2002 and 2010, false positive

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became the label for a systematic practice where

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the state military murdered civilians. Civilians.

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Yeah, civilians. And then they dress them up

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to look like enemy combatants just to boost their

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statistics. And that is exactly the mission for

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this deep dive. We're going to look at the false

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positive scandal in Colombia. And for you listening,

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we're drawing our information today from reports

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by the Special Jurisdiction for Peace. Which

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is known as the... JEP. Right. The JEP, as well

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as United Nations investigations, Human Rights

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Watch and Wikipedia's historical records. But

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we're not just reciting history here. We really

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need to understand the psychology behind this.

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Like, how does a system designed to protect citizens

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end up incentivizing their execution? To understand

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the gravity of this, we really have to start

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with the scale of it. For a long time, early

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investigations, they hovered around a figure

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of about 3 ,000 victims. Which is already massive.

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A staggering number of lives. But the JEP, that

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Transitional Justice Court established after

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the peace treaty with the FARC, they released

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a report in February 2021 that completely shattered

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that understanding. Yeah. They documented 6 ,402

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victims between 2002 and 2008 alone. 6 ,402.

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Yeah. I just want to pause on that because that

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is hard to even wrap your head around. It is.

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That's more than the capacity of some concert

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venues. And I've even seen some studies in the

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sources that suggest the real number could be

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as high as 10 ,000. Right. That's not a glitch.

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That's a catastrophe. It's a complete humanitarian

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catastrophe. And what we are really exploring

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here, the core theme, is the danger of metrics

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in war. There's this concept in economics called

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Goodhart's Law. Right. It states that when a

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measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good

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measure. Like if you measure a call center solely

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by how many calls they take, the workers will

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just hang up on people to keep their numbers

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up? Exactly. Now apply that exact logic to warfare.

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When you measure success solely by body counts

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and you attach rewards to those numbers, you

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create an incredibly perverse incentive structure.

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You essentially gamify death. You do. The military

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wasn't measuring territory controlled or civilians

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safe. They were measuring liters of blood. Effectively.

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And that specific choice of metric turned a defense

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force into a predation force. So let's trace

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how this unraveled, because for years these were

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just scattered reports. You had grieving families,

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mostly very poor families that no one listened

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to. But then came the Soacha case in 2008. This

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seems to be the thread that pulled the whole

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sweater apart. Walk us through that. The Soacha

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case is absolutely the catalyst. It made the

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pattern impossible for the public and the media

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to ignore. Soacha is a municipality right near

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Bogota, the capital. Okay. It's a working class

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area. It often houses people who've been displaced

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by violence in other parts of the country. And

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in 2008, 22 men from this area just vanished.

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Just disappeared. And these weren't combatants,

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right? Not at all. These were young men. Some

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were construction workers. Some were unemployed.

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Some even had cognitive disabilities. They were

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highly vulnerable. So what happened to them?

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Well, recruiters, who were often civilians working

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in cahoots with the military. Yeah. would come

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into these neighborhoods and they promised jobs.

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They'd say, hey, I work for you on a farm or

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have a construction gig. So these guys thought

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they were going to earn money to support their

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families. They get in a truck or a bus. And they

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vanish. But then a few days later, their bodies

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turn up hundreds of miles away in Oconia, in

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the Norte de Santander department. Which is a

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huge distance. A massive distance. And suddenly,

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these young men from Sohocha are being reported

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by the military as highly dangerous guerrilla

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commanders who are killed in fierce combat. The

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geography alone makes no sense. Why would you

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take them all the way to Ocaña? To break the

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link. Think about it. If you kill a kid in Sohocha

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and dump the body in Sohocha, the neighbors recognize

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him immediately. They'll say, hey, that's Juan,

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the baker's son. He's not a guerrilla. Right.

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But if you move him 400 miles away... He's just

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an anonymous body in a war zone. It's so much

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easier to fake the narrative. This is where the

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script became visible to investigators later

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on, because reading the sources, it wasn't random

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at all. It was like a production line. Precisely.

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The investigations revealed a very distinct pattern.

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Step one was recruit the victim, usually someone

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whose disappearance might not trigger a massive

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media outcry immediately. Step two, transport

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them to a remote location. And then step three

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is the execution. By military members, usually

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very soon after arrival. And then step four is

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the scene manipulation. Scene manipulation, which

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is a very polite way of saying they dress the

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stage. Exactly. They put weapons in their hands.

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Often these were old, non -functioning guns kept

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specifically for this purpose. They dress them

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in camouflage. Yeah. And then step five, the

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paperwork. They filed official reports claiming

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these were FARC or ELN fighters neutralized in

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battle. There is one detail from the source material

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that really stuck with me. It just shows the

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incredibly transactional nature of this whole

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thing. A recruiter actually testified that he

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received roughly $500 from the military for each

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man he delivered to be killed. That's the commodification

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of life I was referring to earlier. Five hundred

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dollars. That was the market price for a positive

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result. But hold on. How does this happen on

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a systemic level? I mean, I can understand. Well,

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not understand, but I can imagine a bad apple

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soldier looting a body or making a terrible mistake

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in the heat of battle. But thousands of deaths.

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Yeah. That requires a system that requires a

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culture that explicitly allows it. You have to

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look at the political and policy context of the

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time to understand the why. This was occurring

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largely during the presidency of Alvaro Uribe

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Velez. And you have to remember the atmosphere

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in Colombia in the early 2000s. It was incredibly

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tense. Right. The country felt like it was on

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the brink of being a failed state. Kidnappings

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were rampant. The FARC was controlling huge swabs

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of territory. People were terrified. So the public

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was absolutely desperate for safety. Desperate.

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Uribe came in with a flagship policy called democratic

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security. It was a very iron fist approach. The

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promise was to retake the country from the guerrillas.

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And because the public wanted safety so badly,

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there was immense overwhelming pressure on the

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military to show results. Tangible, visible results.

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And in this context, results meant bodies. Yes.

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And there's a specific document that experts

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point to. It's Ministerial Directive No. 29,

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signed in 2005 by the defense minister at the

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time, Camilo Ospina Bernal. This directive is

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crucial. Why? What did it actually do? It detailed

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a specific scheme of benefits and rewards for

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combat kills. Wait, pause for a second. Are you

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saying there was an actual menu of rewards? Like

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official paperwork saying, kill this many people,

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get a prize? Essentially, yes. It formalized

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the incentives. If a unit produced combat kills,

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the soldiers could get promotions, medals, special

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training courses abroad, and crucially, vacations.

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Vacations. So, kill a civilian, go to the beach.

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That is the grim reality of it. Now, the directive

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didn't explicitly say, go kill civilians, of

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course. It said, we will reward you for every

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enemy you neutralize. But when you combine that

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intense pressure from the top to produce numbers

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with the promise of tangible rewards, you create

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a market for dead bodies. Because finding actual

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gorillas is hard. Very hard. Finding and fighting

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gorillas in the jungle is dangerous, grueling

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work. So if you couldn't find one, you created

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one. It creates a situation where the soldier

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who plays by the rules and patrols for a week

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without firing a shot is seen as a failure by

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his commanders, while the soldier who murders

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an innocent civilian is a hero who gets a week

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off. Exactly. It completely erases the line between

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a civilian and a combatant because the statistic

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is the only thing that matters to your career

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progression. The body count became the currency

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of the military. And that leads us to the evidence

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because eventually the cracks in the story got

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too big to ignore. In June 2009, the U .N. special

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rapporteur Philip Alston conducted a massive

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investigation. Yes. And the details he found,

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they absolutely destroy any idea that these were

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legitimate combat situations. Alston's work was

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pivotal. He looked at the forensic evidence and

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it was incredibly sloppy. The cover -ups were

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almost arrogant in how poorly they were done.

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The detail that haunts me the most is the boots.

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Alston noted that victims were wearing jungle

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boots that were brand new. Right. Just think

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about the logic there. You're supposed to believe

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this hardened gorilla has been living and fighting

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in the Colombian jungle for months, trekking

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through mud and rain. But his boots are pristine.

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No scuffs, no mud. And worse, the sizing. The

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reports mention victims found wearing boots that

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were three or four sizes too big for them. Imagine

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the sloppiness required to put size 10 boots

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on a size 7 foot and think, yeah, this looks

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convincing. It shows a total disregard for...

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the victim's humanity. They weren't even seen

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as people anymore. They were just props. Alston

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also found left -handed men clutching guns in

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their right hands. Yeah. And many of them were

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killed with a single precise shot through the

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back of the neck. That's not a chaotic jungle

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firefight. That's an execution. Exactly. And

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Alston's conclusion was very careful. But very

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damning. He said he found no evidence that this

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was official government policy, as in he didn't

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find a memo from the president saying kill civilians.

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Right. However, he also explicitly stated the

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bad apples theory. The idea that this was just

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a few rogue soldiers acting alone was equally

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unsustainable because it was happening in Antioquia,

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Arauca, Meta, Norte de Santander. It was systemic.

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It was happening everywhere. And inside that

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massive system, there were actually people who

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tried to say no. We really have to talk about

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the whistleblowers because the cost of truth

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here was incredibly high. This wasn't just violence

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against civilians. It was violence against the

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military's own conscience. The internal pressure

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to conform was suffocating. If you didn't produce

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bodies alongside your unit, you were suspected

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of being soft or worse, a guerrilla sympathizer.

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We have records of a colonel who eventually received

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a 21 -year sentence. Oh, wow. He admitted to

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his involvement in killing two peasants, but

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he also admitted his unit had carried out 57

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similar murders. And he was even recorded extorting

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other army members to keep them from testifying.

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But then you have someone like Corporal Raul

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Antonio Carvajal Londoño. And this story, it

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just breaks your heart. It really does. In 2006,

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he called his father, Don Raul. He's terrified.

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He told his dad that he was actively refusing

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to execute two innocent young men just to label

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them as insurgents. He drew a line in the sand.

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He refused to do it. And days later, he was dead.

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The official story from the military was that

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he died in combat or by suicide, but the family

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never accepted that. They firmly believed he

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was murdered by his own unit for refusing to

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participate in the crimes. And his father, Don

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Raul Carvajal, became this incredible, tragic

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symbol of resistance. If you looked up photos

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of protests in Colombia from that time, you'd

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see him everywhere. He spent 15 years traveling

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the country. He drove this truck with his son's

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body, well, the coffin, and the whole story plastered

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on the side, just demanding justice. And he did

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that right up until he died of COVID -19 in 2021.

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He was a constant, visible reminder that the

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system aggressively protected itself. Which brings

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us to the political fallout of all this. Because

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when the scandal first broke, specifically after

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the Soacha case, the reaction from leadership

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wasn't introspection. No, it was pure denial.

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Total denial. Juan Manuel Santos was the defense

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minister at the time, and he later became president.

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And Alvaro Uribe was president. Initially, they

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claimed these were just isolated incidents. They

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even suggested these were false claims made specifically

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to stain the honor of the military. There was

00:12:21.159 --> 00:12:24.259
a very famous, very controversial line where

00:12:24.259 --> 00:12:26.840
Uribe suggested the young men from Soacha weren't

00:12:26.840 --> 00:12:29.019
gathering coffee, implying they were actually

00:12:29.019 --> 00:12:31.279
criminals up to no good. Blaming the victims.

00:12:31.559 --> 00:12:34.679
Exactly. That narrative only started to shift.

00:12:35.100 --> 00:12:37.659
when the evidence, like the pristine boots, like

00:12:37.659 --> 00:12:40.080
the testimonies from the mothers, became totally

00:12:40.080 --> 00:12:44.039
overwhelming. After Soacha, Santos fired 27 officers,

00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:46.360
including three generals. And the army commander,

00:12:46.620 --> 00:12:49.000
General Mario Montoya, he resigned in November

00:12:49.000 --> 00:12:52.039
2008, right? He did. But even then, for a long

00:12:52.039 --> 00:12:54.159
time, the official line was still rogue elements.

00:12:54.419 --> 00:12:56.580
They refused to admit the structure itself was

00:12:56.580 --> 00:12:58.740
rotten. It took a really long time for a formal

00:12:58.740 --> 00:13:01.600
apology. It wasn't until 2021 that Juan Manuel

00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:03.679
Santos, acting as a former president at that

00:13:03.679 --> 00:13:05.980
point, issued a heartfelt apology to the victims'

00:13:06.120 --> 00:13:08.899
families. He admitted he didn't believe the reports

00:13:08.899 --> 00:13:11.159
at first, and he apologized for his late response.

00:13:11.519 --> 00:13:14.539
And we also can't ignore the role of international

00:13:14.539 --> 00:13:17.870
pressure in forcing that reckoning. Human Rights

00:13:17.870 --> 00:13:20.490
Watch released a major report in 2015 called

00:13:20.490 --> 00:13:23.690
On Their Watch, and they implicated the top brass.

00:13:23.909 --> 00:13:25.769
Oh, specifically. They named General Juan Pablo

00:13:25.769 --> 00:13:28.669
Rodriguez and General Jaime Lasbrilla, who were

00:13:28.669 --> 00:13:30.509
leading the armed forces at the time the report

00:13:30.509 --> 00:13:32.889
came out. The report pointed out that they had

00:13:32.889 --> 00:13:35.269
headed units during the absolute peak of the

00:13:35.269 --> 00:13:37.850
killings. This pressure eventually led to more

00:13:37.850 --> 00:13:41.110
dismissals in 2016. So you have these mothers

00:13:41.110 --> 00:13:43.759
screaming for truth. You have whistleblowers

00:13:43.759 --> 00:13:46.460
dying for it. And the standard court system was

00:13:46.460 --> 00:13:50.200
just too slow or honestly too biased to handle

00:13:50.200 --> 00:13:52.720
the scale of this. And this pressure cooker is

00:13:52.720 --> 00:13:55.320
what eventually forced the creation of the JEP.

00:13:55.519 --> 00:13:57.720
Yes. Can you explain for the listener exactly

00:13:57.720 --> 00:14:00.320
what the JEP is and why it's so different from

00:14:00.320 --> 00:14:02.659
a normal court? The JEP, the Special Jurisdiction

00:14:02.659 --> 00:14:05.399
for Peace, is a transitional justice court. It

00:14:05.399 --> 00:14:07.620
was born out of the 2016 peace treaty with the

00:14:07.620 --> 00:14:10.299
FARC. Its priority is fundamentally different

00:14:10.299 --> 00:14:13.059
from a regular criminal court. In a normal court,

00:14:13.220 --> 00:14:15.980
the goal is often just punishment. Lock them

00:14:15.980 --> 00:14:20.460
up. In the JEP, the priority is truth and restorative

00:14:20.460 --> 00:14:23.100
justice. It's unique because it invites actors,

00:14:23.179 --> 00:14:25.860
guerrillas, and military alike to come forward

00:14:25.860 --> 00:14:29.279
and confess. If they tell the full truth and

00:14:29.279 --> 00:14:31.399
acknowledge their crimes, they can receive lighter

00:14:31.399 --> 00:14:34.120
restorative sentences. But if they lie or hold

00:14:34.120 --> 00:14:36.620
back and are found guilty, they go to regular

00:14:36.620 --> 00:14:39.559
prison for decades. So it's a tradeoff. We give

00:14:39.559 --> 00:14:41.980
you leniency, but you have to give us the absolute

00:14:41.980 --> 00:14:44.519
truth. Exactly. And that's exactly where that

00:14:44.519 --> 00:14:48.659
massive number 6 ,400. came from. The JEP has

00:14:48.659 --> 00:14:51.659
access to data and inside testimonies that regular

00:14:51.659 --> 00:14:53.919
courts just didn't have. And they've been aggressive

00:14:53.919 --> 00:14:55.799
with it. They actually charged General Mario

00:14:55.799 --> 00:14:58.899
Montoya Uribe with war crimes and crimes against

00:14:58.899 --> 00:15:01.220
humanity. And he is the highest ranking official

00:15:01.220 --> 00:15:03.580
charged, right? Yes, he is. The charges are brutal.

00:15:04.090 --> 00:15:06.190
lying about combat kills, pressuring soldiers,

00:15:06.350 --> 00:15:08.649
using violent language to incite violence. The

00:15:08.649 --> 00:15:11.090
JEP basically accuses him and others of creating

00:15:11.090 --> 00:15:13.409
the exact environment where these crimes flourished.

00:15:13.570 --> 00:15:15.789
Now, reading through the sources, there's also

00:15:15.789 --> 00:15:18.730
this ongoing legal tug -of -war between civilian

00:15:18.730 --> 00:15:22.149
courts and military courts. Why does that matter

00:15:22.149 --> 00:15:25.370
so much? It matters entirely because of impunity.

00:15:26.330 --> 00:15:28.730
Historically, if a soldier commits a crime and

00:15:28.730 --> 00:15:31.309
is tried in a military court, the judges are

00:15:31.309 --> 00:15:33.690
other military members. Right. The sentences

00:15:33.690 --> 00:15:36.690
tend to be significantly lighter, or the cases

00:15:36.690 --> 00:15:39.690
just mysteriously get buried to protect the institution.

00:15:40.769 --> 00:15:42.850
Human rights groups have always thought tooth

00:15:42.850 --> 00:15:45.750
and nail to keep these false positive cases in

00:15:45.750 --> 00:15:48.230
civilian courts. But the defense lawyers try

00:15:48.230 --> 00:15:50.269
to move them back to the military courts. Always.

00:15:50.590 --> 00:15:53.169
There was a law passed in 2013 that tried to

00:15:53.169 --> 00:15:55.889
regulate this, stating clearly that extrajudicial

00:15:55.889 --> 00:15:57.889
executions must stay in civilian jurisdiction.

00:15:58.789 --> 00:16:01.110
But defense teams often argue that the deaths

00:16:01.110 --> 00:16:03.789
were homicides related to active service. They're

00:16:03.789 --> 00:16:05.230
always trying to find loopholes to get their

00:16:05.230 --> 00:16:07.250
clients back into the military justice system

00:16:07.250 --> 00:16:09.169
where they know they might find more sympathy.

00:16:09.350 --> 00:16:11.629
It sounds like a constant, exhausting battle

00:16:11.629 --> 00:16:13.870
just to keep the truth from being buried under

00:16:13.870 --> 00:16:16.289
bureaucracy again. It is. And that's why the

00:16:16.289 --> 00:16:19.740
JEP's work is so absolutely critical. It's forcing

00:16:19.740 --> 00:16:22.399
a public confrontation with the past that statistics

00:16:22.399 --> 00:16:24.899
and official versions tried to hide for a decade.

00:16:25.159 --> 00:16:27.480
It's forcing these generals to look the mothers

00:16:27.480 --> 00:16:29.860
in the eye and admit that their sons were not

00:16:29.860 --> 00:16:32.600
combatants. When we look back at all of this,

00:16:32.639 --> 00:16:36.200
we have 6 ,402 lives at a minimum completely

00:16:36.200 --> 00:16:39.399
erased. We have families destroyed. And we have

00:16:39.399 --> 00:16:42.000
a military that, for a time, functioned almost

00:16:42.000 --> 00:16:44.360
as a mercenary force against its own people,

00:16:44.519 --> 00:16:47.480
getting paid by the state per body. It's a total

00:16:47.480 --> 00:16:50.100
distortion of reality. The false positives scandal

00:16:50.100 --> 00:16:52.639
isn't just about a failure of command. It's about

00:16:52.639 --> 00:16:54.360
what happens when you build a bureaucracy of

00:16:54.360 --> 00:16:57.740
success based entirely on violent metrics. They

00:16:57.740 --> 00:16:59.700
needed to show they were winning the war. So

00:16:59.700 --> 00:17:01.519
they literally manually... manufactured a reality

00:17:01.519 --> 00:17:04.079
where they were winning at the cost of innocent

00:17:04.079 --> 00:17:06.880
civilian lives. It makes you look at every metric

00:17:06.880 --> 00:17:09.400
differently. Honestly, whether it's police quotas,

00:17:09.460 --> 00:17:11.839
corporate targets, or even hospital wait times,

00:17:12.000 --> 00:17:14.440
as soon as a metric becomes a target, it ceases

00:17:14.440 --> 00:17:16.660
to be a good measure. That's the core takeaway

00:17:16.660 --> 00:17:19.380
here. And if I can leave you listening with one

00:17:19.380 --> 00:17:23.039
final thought to mull over. We often think of

00:17:23.039 --> 00:17:25.319
the military's job as protecting the population

00:17:25.319 --> 00:17:28.200
in order to win a war. Right. But in this case,

00:17:28.220 --> 00:17:30.619
the metric for winning was simply the number

00:17:30.619 --> 00:17:34.359
of dead bodies. So here is the question. If the

00:17:34.359 --> 00:17:37.180
metric for victory is the body count, is it ever

00:17:37.180 --> 00:17:39.740
possible for a military to actually protect the

00:17:39.740 --> 00:17:42.400
population? Or does the population inevitably

00:17:42.400 --> 00:17:45.539
become just another resource raw material to

00:17:45.539 --> 00:17:48.900
be used to win? That is a deeply terrifying thought

00:17:48.900 --> 00:17:50.900
and definitely something we should probably all

00:17:50.900 --> 00:17:53.140
keep in mind when we look at how we measure success,

00:17:53.319 --> 00:17:55.180
even in areas far removed from the battlefield.

00:17:55.660 --> 00:17:57.640
Thank you for joining us on this deep dive. Thank

00:17:57.640 --> 00:17:59.079
you for having me. We'll see you next time.
