WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.179 So I want to start today with a number that quite 00:00:04.179 --> 00:00:06.120 honestly kept me up last night while I was going 00:00:06.120 --> 00:00:08.080 through the research stack we compiled for you. 00:00:08.339 --> 00:00:09.900 Oh, I think I know exactly which number you're 00:00:09.900 --> 00:00:12.019 talking about. Yeah, it's 80 percent. 80 percent. 00:00:12.140 --> 00:00:15.339 Right. That is roughly the approval rating. Andres 00:00:15.339 --> 00:00:19.379 Manuel Lopez Obrador, widely known just by his 00:00:19.379 --> 00:00:21.960 initials, AMLO had when he walked out of the 00:00:21.960 --> 00:00:23.920 presidential palace in September twenty twenty 00:00:23.920 --> 00:00:26.699 four, which just a pause there and contextualize 00:00:26.699 --> 00:00:29.870 that for a second. That is statistically absurd. 00:00:30.010 --> 00:00:31.989 I mean, in modern democracies, especially in 00:00:31.989 --> 00:00:34.490 the polarized world we live in, by the time a 00:00:34.490 --> 00:00:37.109 leader finishes a six -year term, usually everyone 00:00:37.109 --> 00:00:39.189 hates them. Or at least half the country is completely 00:00:39.189 --> 00:00:41.990 exhausted by them. Exactly. Usually, you know, 00:00:41.990 --> 00:00:44.090 you're tired, the economy has hiccuped, you've 00:00:44.090 --> 00:00:46.289 broken promises, scandals have piled up. You 00:00:46.289 --> 00:00:49.149 look at leaders across Latin America or even 00:00:49.149 --> 00:00:51.149 in the U .S. and Europe. They usually limp to 00:00:51.149 --> 00:00:54.390 the finish line. But AMLO... He left office more 00:00:54.390 --> 00:00:56.450 popular than most presidents are on their actual 00:00:56.450 --> 00:00:59.810 inauguration day and his successor Claudia Scheinbaum 00:00:59.810 --> 00:01:02.649 won in an absolute landslide yeah, it was a massive 00:01:02.649 --> 00:01:06.430 mandate and yet and Here's the headache. I have 00:01:06.430 --> 00:01:10.230 with the sources were diving into today The split 00:01:10.230 --> 00:01:12.769 screen is just jarring. It's a very violent split 00:01:12.769 --> 00:01:14.810 screen right because if you look at the domestic 00:01:14.810 --> 00:01:18.370 polling data He is almost this Messiah who finally 00:01:18.370 --> 00:01:20.769 saved the poor, but then if you read the international 00:01:20.769 --> 00:01:23.510 press or the economic reports from Wall Street, 00:01:23.689 --> 00:01:27.010 or human rights watchdogs, he's described as 00:01:27.010 --> 00:01:31.250 a democratic backslider, a militarist, a guy 00:01:31.250 --> 00:01:34.510 who let the cartels run wild and dismantled the 00:01:34.510 --> 00:01:36.609 checks and balances of the state. Yeah, the critics 00:01:36.609 --> 00:01:40.049 paint a very dark picture. So our mission today 00:01:40.049 --> 00:01:42.930 for you listening is to figure out how we reconcile 00:01:42.930 --> 00:01:45.469 this. How do we reconcile the beloved hero with 00:01:45.469 --> 00:01:48.239 the authoritarian wrecking ball? Because they 00:01:48.239 --> 00:01:50.939 can't both be 100 % true, right? No, they can't. 00:01:51.120 --> 00:01:53.379 And that is exactly the mission today. We aren't 00:01:53.379 --> 00:01:55.519 just looking at a politician here. We are looking 00:01:55.519 --> 00:01:58.140 at a man who tried to engineer a revolution from 00:01:58.140 --> 00:02:00.239 the top down. He literally calls his movement 00:02:00.239 --> 00:02:03.120 the Fourth Transformation, or the Four -T. And 00:02:03.120 --> 00:02:04.859 that's a pretty bold claim. I mean, that puts 00:02:04.859 --> 00:02:06.379 him right next to, what, the founding fathers 00:02:06.379 --> 00:02:09.430 of the country? Literally, yes. He sees himself 00:02:09.430 --> 00:02:12.090 as the fourth major beat in a historical rhythm 00:02:12.090 --> 00:02:15.129 for Mexico. So first, you have the independence 00:02:15.129 --> 00:02:18.310 from Spain in 1810. Second is the reform war 00:02:18.310 --> 00:02:21.189 in the mid 19th century with Benito Juarez. Third, 00:02:21.310 --> 00:02:23.430 you have the Mexican Revolution of 1910 against 00:02:23.430 --> 00:02:27.189 the dictatorship. And fourth, AMLO. Talk about 00:02:27.189 --> 00:02:29.949 an ego. Or a deep sense of destiny. And that's 00:02:29.949 --> 00:02:31.550 what we really need to unpack from the course 00:02:31.550 --> 00:02:33.909 material today. Is the Fourth Transformation 00:02:33.909 --> 00:02:37.270 a genuine structural revolution akin to independence? 00:02:38.150 --> 00:02:40.590 Or was it just the most successful political 00:02:40.590 --> 00:02:43.530 branding exercise in modern history? Well, understand, 00:02:43.969 --> 00:02:46.030 if you actually pulled that off, we have to go 00:02:46.030 --> 00:02:48.469 back to the swamp. Literally. Because before 00:02:48.469 --> 00:02:51.129 he was the president, or even AMLO, he was just 00:02:51.129 --> 00:02:54.030 El Peque. El Peque. Which, you know, sounds affectionate, 00:02:54.030 --> 00:02:56.090 but looking at the picture of the fish it's named 00:02:56.090 --> 00:02:59.110 after in our research file, it is a prehistoric 00:02:59.110 --> 00:03:01.090 nightmare creature. Oh, yeah, the Heligarto. 00:03:01.530 --> 00:03:04.150 It's a fish native to his home state of Tabasco. 00:03:04.590 --> 00:03:07.110 It has this really long snout, incredibly sharp 00:03:07.110 --> 00:03:09.729 teeth, and very tough skin. It's an ancient survivor. 00:03:09.870 --> 00:03:11.610 I mean, it's ugly cute maybe, but mostly it's 00:03:11.610 --> 00:03:13.789 just tough. And honestly, it fits his political 00:03:13.789 --> 00:03:17.039 persona perfectly. So let's go to Tabasco. Because 00:03:17.039 --> 00:03:20.580 this isn't the resort beaches of Cancun or the 00:03:20.580 --> 00:03:22.699 high -altitude metropolis of Mexico City that 00:03:22.699 --> 00:03:25.520 you might be picturing. Not at all. Tabasco is 00:03:25.520 --> 00:03:28.060 the deep south. It is the tropics. It's oppressive 00:03:28.060 --> 00:03:31.719 heat, humidity, oil, and water. He was born there 00:03:31.719 --> 00:03:34.860 in 1953 in a very small village called Tepetitán. 00:03:35.319 --> 00:03:37.639 His parents were merchants. They were shopkeepers. 00:03:37.860 --> 00:03:40.219 So he wasn't living in abject poverty, but he 00:03:40.219 --> 00:03:42.560 definitely wasn't elite either. Exactly. He wasn't 00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:45.479 starving, but he was very, very far from the 00:03:45.479 --> 00:03:48.340 political aristocracy of Mexico City. He grew 00:03:48.340 --> 00:03:50.639 up basically listening to the everyday struggles 00:03:50.639 --> 00:03:53.460 of customers in his parents' shop. But there's 00:03:53.460 --> 00:03:55.400 something quite interesting about his heritage 00:03:55.400 --> 00:03:57.620 in the biographical sources. Right, his grandfather. 00:03:57.800 --> 00:03:59.919 Yeah, his maternal grandfather was a Spanish 00:03:59.919 --> 00:04:03.159 exile. a communist from Cantabria. And then on 00:04:03.159 --> 00:04:05.460 his father's side, the sources note indigenous 00:04:05.460 --> 00:04:08.780 and African descent. So physically and genealogically, 00:04:08.840 --> 00:04:11.300 he really embodies the mestizo reality of Mexico. 00:04:11.379 --> 00:04:13.319 He looks and sounds like the everyday people. 00:04:13.580 --> 00:04:16.279 But there is a massive shadow over his childhood. 00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:18.920 I was reading the early biography section of 00:04:18.920 --> 00:04:22.500 our deep dive materials and everything seems 00:04:22.500 --> 00:04:24.899 pretty standard. Playing baseball, going to school 00:04:24.899 --> 00:04:28.610 until 1969. The tragedy. Yeah. He was only 15. 00:04:28.870 --> 00:04:31.509 This is the moment that almost all the biographers 00:04:31.509 --> 00:04:34.449 and political psychologists point to as the defining 00:04:34.449 --> 00:04:37.069 crack in his foundation. He was in the family 00:04:37.069 --> 00:04:39.350 clothing store, which was called Novedades Andres. 00:04:39.569 --> 00:04:42.089 He was there with his younger brother, Jose Ramon, 00:04:42.290 --> 00:04:44.930 and they found a pistol. A real loaded pistol. 00:04:45.129 --> 00:04:47.589 Yes. And you have to remember, in that region, 00:04:47.670 --> 00:04:50.970 in that specific time, having a gun for protection 00:04:50.970 --> 00:04:54.100 in a cash business wasn't uncommon. Now, the 00:04:54.100 --> 00:04:56.139 historical accounts vary on the exact mechanics, 00:04:56.519 --> 00:04:58.120 whether the brother was playing with it and dropped 00:04:58.120 --> 00:04:59.660 it, or if they were messing around together, 00:04:59.720 --> 00:05:02.420 but the gun went off. The bullet hit Jose Ramon 00:05:02.420 --> 00:05:05.139 in the head. Yeah. And he died almost instantly. 00:05:05.500 --> 00:05:07.899 God. And AMLO was right there when it happened. 00:05:08.120 --> 00:05:10.959 He was right there. Some rumors over the years 00:05:10.959 --> 00:05:13.279 from his political enemies have even suggested 00:05:13.279 --> 00:05:15.139 he was holding the gun, though it was officially 00:05:15.139 --> 00:05:17.500 ruled a tragic accident and he was never charged. 00:05:18.120 --> 00:05:20.079 But just imagine the psychological weight of 00:05:20.079 --> 00:05:23.480 that at 15 years old. Watching your brother die 00:05:23.480 --> 00:05:25.939 violently in front of you involving a weapon 00:05:25.939 --> 00:05:28.100 you were both handling? I mean that breaks a 00:05:28.100 --> 00:05:30.540 person or it sends them into a permanent spiral. 00:05:30.730 --> 00:05:32.930 or it hardens them into something completely 00:05:32.930 --> 00:05:35.829 unbreakable. The contemporary sources say he 00:05:35.829 --> 00:05:38.730 changed basically overnight. He became taciturn, 00:05:39.029 --> 00:05:42.329 serious. deeply thoughtful. He even stopped playing 00:05:42.329 --> 00:05:44.430 baseball for a long time, which was his absolute 00:05:44.430 --> 00:05:46.689 passion. It sounds a lot like classic survivor's 00:05:46.689 --> 00:05:49.189 guilt. Or survivor's purpose. Yeah. There's a 00:05:49.189 --> 00:05:51.310 prominent theory in the literature that this 00:05:51.310 --> 00:05:53.550 trauma gave him a sort of messianic complex. 00:05:53.930 --> 00:05:56.550 The idea that I survived when he didn't, therefore 00:05:56.550 --> 00:05:58.870 I must have been spared for a specific higher 00:05:58.870 --> 00:06:01.910 reason. It gave him a bulletproof belief in his 00:06:01.910 --> 00:06:04.550 own destiny. because you can't shame him, you 00:06:04.550 --> 00:06:06.949 can't scare him, because he's already seen the 00:06:06.949 --> 00:06:09.529 absolute worst thing possible. So he carries 00:06:09.529 --> 00:06:11.649 his immense weight, and eventually he leaves 00:06:11.649 --> 00:06:14.250 the tropics to go to the big city. He enrolls 00:06:14.250 --> 00:06:16.610 at UNAM, the National Autonomous University in 00:06:16.610 --> 00:06:20.069 Mexico City, which is really the center of Mexican 00:06:20.069 --> 00:06:23.189 intellectual and political life. And here he 00:06:23.189 --> 00:06:26.350 earns another nickname, not El Peje this time. 00:06:26.550 --> 00:06:29.029 No, in university he was widely known as a fossil. 00:06:29.310 --> 00:06:31.439 Which, uh... I assume doesn't mean he was really 00:06:31.439 --> 00:06:34.240 into paleontology? No, not quite. In Mexican 00:06:34.240 --> 00:06:36.860 university slang, a fossil is a student who just 00:06:36.860 --> 00:06:38.699 never graduates. They just hang around campus 00:06:38.699 --> 00:06:41.920 forever, taking up space. AMLO started his degree 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:45.300 in political science in 1973. He didn't actually 00:06:45.300 --> 00:06:49.100 get his degree until 1987. Wait, 14 years. 14 00:06:49.100 --> 00:06:51.860 years. Was he like, I have to ask, was he just 00:06:51.860 --> 00:06:54.589 failing his classes or was he partying? Neither, 00:06:54.670 --> 00:06:56.870 actually. And this is so key to understanding 00:06:56.870 --> 00:06:59.389 his future political style. While his future 00:06:59.389 --> 00:07:01.149 rivals, the technocrats, were speeding through 00:07:01.149 --> 00:07:03.730 their degrees, getting PhDs at Yale or Harvard, 00:07:04.250 --> 00:07:06.670 and learning macroeconomics from textbooks, Amla 00:07:06.670 --> 00:07:08.709 was essentially ghosting his classes. This is 00:07:08.709 --> 00:07:11.139 not showing up. Right. He was living in a student 00:07:11.139 --> 00:07:13.439 house funded by the Tabasco government, heavily 00:07:13.439 --> 00:07:16.180 influenced by a local poet named Carlos Pellicer. 00:07:16.660 --> 00:07:19.579 And he was going back to Tabasco to do the actual 00:07:19.579 --> 00:07:22.540 grueling work of grassroots politics. So he was 00:07:22.540 --> 00:07:24.699 getting a degree in real life. Specifically, 00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:28.000 a degree in how power works on the actual ground. 00:07:28.480 --> 00:07:30.680 He worked as the director of the Indigenous Institute 00:07:30.680 --> 00:07:33.610 of Tabasco. He lived in a humble hut. He worked 00:07:33.610 --> 00:07:36.370 directly with the Chantel Maya people. He learned 00:07:36.370 --> 00:07:39.009 very early on that power in Mexico isn't about 00:07:39.009 --> 00:07:41.589 having the best economic theory. It's about being 00:07:41.589 --> 00:07:44.250 the guy who delivers the bag of cement or the 00:07:44.250 --> 00:07:46.790 guy who fights the oil company for you. So while 00:07:46.790 --> 00:07:48.649 the elites in Mexico City are learning how to 00:07:48.649 --> 00:07:51.089 manage inflation rates, he is learning how to 00:07:51.089 --> 00:07:54.410 mobilize an entire village. Precisely. And he 00:07:54.410 --> 00:07:56.790 started this journey inside the established system. 00:07:57.110 --> 00:07:59.610 He joined the PRI, the Institutional Revolutionary 00:07:59.610 --> 00:08:01.889 Party, in the 1970s. We should probably clarify 00:08:01.889 --> 00:08:04.100 what the... TRI was back then for you listening. 00:08:04.740 --> 00:08:07.339 Because to an outsider, Institutional Revolutionary 00:08:07.339 --> 00:08:09.879 Party sounds like a total oxymoron. It does. 00:08:09.939 --> 00:08:12.680 It was the perfect dictatorship, as the writer 00:08:12.680 --> 00:08:15.720 Mario Largas Llosa famously called it. They held 00:08:15.720 --> 00:08:18.980 absolute power for 70 straight years. They controlled 00:08:18.980 --> 00:08:21.639 the labor unions, the press, the oil, the schools, 00:08:21.819 --> 00:08:24.430 the elections. If you wanted to do politics in 00:08:24.430 --> 00:08:26.970 Mexico, you had to be in the PRI. There was literally 00:08:26.970 --> 00:08:29.129 no other game in town. But he eventually breaks 00:08:29.129 --> 00:08:31.470 with them. He does. The big break happens in 00:08:31.470 --> 00:08:33.889 1988. This is the year the whole system cracked. 00:08:34.769 --> 00:08:38.730 AMLO joined a leftist splinter group led by Cuauhtemoc 00:08:38.730 --> 00:08:41.029 Cardenas, which is a legendary name in Mexican 00:08:41.029 --> 00:08:44.350 history, who said the PRI had become way too 00:08:44.350 --> 00:08:46.870 corrupt and too neoliberal. They formed the Democratic 00:08:46.870 --> 00:08:49.269 Current, which eventually became the PRD. In 00:08:49.269 --> 00:08:52.360 1988, that is the year of the famous election 00:08:52.360 --> 00:08:54.759 fraud, right? The night the system crashed, Cardenas 00:08:54.759 --> 00:08:56.779 was actually winning the presidential vote count 00:08:56.779 --> 00:08:59.519 against the PRI candidate. Suddenly the government 00:08:59.519 --> 00:09:01.360 computer screens just went blank. They said there 00:09:01.360 --> 00:09:03.940 was a glitch. When the screens came back on hours 00:09:03.940 --> 00:09:06.500 later, the PRI candidate, Carlos Salinas, was 00:09:06.500 --> 00:09:09.200 magically winning. Wow. That is not even trying 00:09:09.200 --> 00:09:12.320 to be subtle. No, it was blatant and it was a 00:09:12.320 --> 00:09:15.559 defining trauma for the Mexican left. It taught 00:09:15.559 --> 00:09:19.059 AMLO a crucial lesson that the institutions, 00:09:19.259 --> 00:09:21.399 the Electoral Commission, the courts, the media, 00:09:21.799 --> 00:09:24.279 were completely rigged against them. You couldn't 00:09:24.279 --> 00:09:26.659 just win by getting more votes. You had to have 00:09:26.659 --> 00:09:29.659 a movement so massive it could overwhelm the 00:09:29.659 --> 00:09:32.019 fraud. And this leads directly to that visual 00:09:32.019 --> 00:09:34.899 from 1996 that really launched his national profile. 00:09:35.519 --> 00:09:37.259 I was staring at the photo in the stack. He's 00:09:37.259 --> 00:09:39.539 wearing a white button -down shirt, but the shirt 00:09:39.539 --> 00:09:41.879 is just soaked in blood. It's a completely striking 00:09:41.879 --> 00:09:43.860 image. He was running for governor of Tabasco 00:09:43.860 --> 00:09:46.700 for the PRD, and he was protesting Pemex, the 00:09:46.700 --> 00:09:49.059 state -owned oil company for polluting indigenous 00:09:49.059 --> 00:09:51.870 land. He was leading a physical blockade of the 00:09:51.870 --> 00:09:54.289 Whale Wells. And the state police moved in with 00:09:54.289 --> 00:09:56.970 riot batons. And he didn't run away. He stood 00:09:56.970 --> 00:09:59.110 his ground. He took a baton to the head. He got 00:09:59.110 --> 00:10:02.210 his head cracked open. the news cameras were 00:10:02.210 --> 00:10:05.250 rolling. That image was beamed across the entire 00:10:05.250 --> 00:10:07.769 country. It wasn't some polished politician in 00:10:07.769 --> 00:10:10.870 a tailored suit giving a dry speech. It was a 00:10:10.870 --> 00:10:13.529 fighter literally bleeding for the everyday people. 00:10:13.889 --> 00:10:16.070 It sends a very clear message. I am willing to 00:10:16.070 --> 00:10:19.070 take a physical beating for you. Exactly. That 00:10:19.070 --> 00:10:22.370 visual branding is incredibly powerful. It catapulted 00:10:22.370 --> 00:10:24.610 him out of the swamps of Tabasco and onto the 00:10:24.610 --> 00:10:27.789 national stage. By the year 2000, he is ready 00:10:27.789 --> 00:10:30.129 for the big leagues. He runs for head of government 00:10:30.129 --> 00:10:32.029 of the federal district, basically the mayor 00:10:32.029 --> 00:10:35.529 of Mexico City. And he wins. And this period 00:10:35.529 --> 00:10:38.850 from 2000 to 2005 seems like the ultimate laboratory 00:10:38.850 --> 00:10:41.049 for everything that comes later in his presidency. 00:10:41.830 --> 00:10:43.730 But looking at the sources on his time as mayor, 00:10:43.850 --> 00:10:46.029 it's actually really confusing. I expected to 00:10:46.029 --> 00:10:49.190 read about a radical leftist firebrand, but his 00:10:49.190 --> 00:10:51.820 policies were weirdly mixed. It's what analysts 00:10:51.820 --> 00:10:54.700 call his populist pragmatism. On one hand, yes, 00:10:54.700 --> 00:10:56.759 he did the classic populist left -wing stuff. 00:10:57.220 --> 00:10:59.659 He created the first universal cash pension for 00:10:59.659 --> 00:11:02.039 seniors in the city. He gave direct cash to single 00:11:02.039 --> 00:11:04.360 mothers and the disabled. He even built the first 00:11:04.360 --> 00:11:06.860 new public university in the city in 30 years, 00:11:07.120 --> 00:11:09.500 the UACM. Right, the social safety net stuff. 00:11:09.820 --> 00:11:11.799 But then look at who he partnered with to fix 00:11:11.799 --> 00:11:14.080 up the historic center of the city, which was 00:11:14.080 --> 00:11:16.179 crumbling and highly crime -ridden at the time. 00:11:16.340 --> 00:11:19.519 Carlos Slim, the telecom billionaire. The richest 00:11:19.519 --> 00:11:21.220 man in Mexico, and at times, the richest man 00:11:21.220 --> 00:11:23.860 in the entire world. The ultimate capitalist 00:11:23.860 --> 00:11:27.440 titan. AMLO invited him in to invest millions 00:11:27.440 --> 00:11:30.559 to gentrify the downtown area, and then for security 00:11:30.559 --> 00:11:34.639 policy. He didn't hire a progressive sociologist. 00:11:34.799 --> 00:11:38.580 He hired Rudy Giuliani. Wait. The Rudy Giuliani? 00:11:39.039 --> 00:11:41.139 The zero -tolerance, broken -windows mayor of 00:11:41.139 --> 00:11:44.299 New York City? A very same man. But Giuliani 00:11:44.299 --> 00:11:47.080 is the exact opposite of a leftist. Why on earth 00:11:47.080 --> 00:11:50.370 would AMLO bring him in? because AMLO recognized 00:11:50.370 --> 00:11:53.009 a fundamental political truth. The working class 00:11:53.009 --> 00:11:56.009 hates crime even more than the rich do. The poor 00:11:56.009 --> 00:11:57.629 are the ones who are the victims of muggings 00:11:57.629 --> 00:11:59.690 on the public bus. They don't have private security. 00:11:59.950 --> 00:12:02.190 So he brought in the famously toughest cop in 00:12:02.190 --> 00:12:04.250 the world to show he was deadly serious about 00:12:04.250 --> 00:12:07.309 security. It was a masterstroke of pure pragmatism. 00:12:07.669 --> 00:12:09.370 He proved to the middle class that he could work 00:12:09.370 --> 00:12:11.490 with billionaires and hardliners if it served 00:12:11.490 --> 00:12:14.289 his practical goals. Plus, he built massive infrastructure 00:12:14.289 --> 00:12:17.029 like the Metrobus rapid transit system and those 00:12:17.029 --> 00:12:19.610 highly controversial second stories on the periferico 00:12:19.610 --> 00:12:21.860 ring road. The double decker highways. Exactly. 00:12:22.000 --> 00:12:24.120 They were controversial for urban planning, but 00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:26.139 they were highly visible proof that he was building 00:12:26.139 --> 00:12:29.139 things. But just as he's riding high, seemingly 00:12:29.139 --> 00:12:31.620 untouchable as mayor, the system tries to take 00:12:31.620 --> 00:12:34.259 him out again. This is the period known as the 00:12:34.259 --> 00:12:37.039 Desafuero. And honestly, reading the details 00:12:37.039 --> 00:12:39.019 of the actual crime he was accused of in our 00:12:39.019 --> 00:12:41.419 research, it feels like a total joke. It feels 00:12:41.419 --> 00:12:43.580 like a joke, but the political consequences were 00:12:43.580 --> 00:12:47.019 deadly serious. It was 2004. The federal government, 00:12:47.059 --> 00:12:49.220 which was led by President Vicente Fox of the 00:12:49.220 --> 00:12:52.059 conservative pan party, tried to legally strip 00:12:52.059 --> 00:12:55.960 AMLO of his mayoral immunity. His pharaoh. And 00:12:55.960 --> 00:12:58.919 the crime. Was it high treason? Did he embezzle 00:12:58.919 --> 00:13:01.759 millions of pesos? He built a hospital access 00:13:01.759 --> 00:13:05.139 road. A road. A generic dirt and asphalt service 00:13:05.139 --> 00:13:08.639 road to a private hospital. A federal judge had 00:13:08.639 --> 00:13:11.779 ordered work to stop due to a minor land expropriation 00:13:11.779 --> 00:13:14.460 dispute. The city crews basically kept working 00:13:14.460 --> 00:13:16.779 for a few more days before stopping. The federal 00:13:16.779 --> 00:13:18.600 government seized on this and claimed it was 00:13:18.600 --> 00:13:20.299 contempt of court. So let me get this straight. 00:13:20.539 --> 00:13:22.419 They were going to impeach the leading presidential 00:13:22.419 --> 00:13:24.799 candidate in the country over a hospital driveway. 00:13:25.100 --> 00:13:28.190 Yes. But the political math was very simple. 00:13:28.830 --> 00:13:30.909 If he was officially charged with any federal 00:13:30.909 --> 00:13:32.970 crime, he legally couldn't appear on the ballot 00:13:32.970 --> 00:13:36.669 for president in 2006. It was a blatant technicality 00:13:36.669 --> 00:13:39.049 designed to assassinate his candidacy. That seems 00:13:39.049 --> 00:13:41.649 incredibly short -sighted by President Fox and 00:13:41.649 --> 00:13:43.769 his opponents. Didn't they realize this would 00:13:43.769 --> 00:13:46.659 just turn him into a massive martyr? They underestimated 00:13:46.659 --> 00:13:48.700 his political instincts completely. They thought, 00:13:48.840 --> 00:13:50.519 we have the letter of the law on our side, so 00:13:50.519 --> 00:13:53.740 we win. But AMLO turned it into a massive narrative 00:13:53.740 --> 00:13:56.960 of the corrupt elite versus the people. You had 00:13:56.960 --> 00:13:59.519 the famous silence march. What was that? Hundreds 00:13:59.519 --> 00:14:01.399 of thousands of people marching through central 00:14:01.399 --> 00:14:03.840 Mexico City in absolute silence to support him. 00:14:04.179 --> 00:14:06.639 He spun the narrative beautifully. He told the 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:08.600 crowds, they aren't coming after me. They are 00:14:08.600 --> 00:14:10.860 coming after you by trying to take away your 00:14:10.860 --> 00:14:12.980 democratic right to vote for me. And it worked. 00:14:13.240 --> 00:14:15.960 It worked perfectly. President Fox ultimately 00:14:15.960 --> 00:14:18.919 had to back down to avoid a massive civil uprising. 00:14:19.460 --> 00:14:22.840 The case was quietly dropped. AMLO left the mayor's 00:14:22.840 --> 00:14:25.460 office with an unheard of 84 percent approval 00:14:25.460 --> 00:14:28.320 rating, and he walked into the 2006 presidential 00:14:28.320 --> 00:14:30.659 election as an absolute titan. But then we get 00:14:30.659 --> 00:14:35.000 to 2006. And we have to slow down here because 00:14:35.000 --> 00:14:38.299 reading the sources. This feels like the exact 00:14:38.299 --> 00:14:41.039 moment that broke modern Mexico. It is the open 00:14:41.039 --> 00:14:43.879 wound, the trauma that has completely defined 00:14:43.879 --> 00:14:46.080 the last 20 years of Mexican politics. So paint 00:14:46.080 --> 00:14:49.220 the picture for us. It's election night. It's 00:14:49.220 --> 00:14:51.539 AMLO versus Felipe Calderón of the conservative 00:14:51.539 --> 00:14:53.919 pan party. And the numbers start coming in. And 00:14:53.919 --> 00:14:57.100 they are tight, agonizingly tight. The preliminary 00:14:57.100 --> 00:15:00.100 results show Calderon ahead by just a whisper. 00:15:00.179 --> 00:15:03.120 How much of a whisper? 0 .56%. That's a difference 00:15:03.120 --> 00:15:06.340 of about 244 ,000 votes in a country of over 00:15:06.340 --> 00:15:09.340 100 million people. And AMLO, remembering 1988, 00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:11.480 remembering the night the system crashed, says, 00:15:11.559 --> 00:15:13.740 I don't believe it. He screams fraud immediately. 00:15:14.059 --> 00:15:16.440 He demands a massive vote by vote, booth by booth 00:15:16.440 --> 00:15:18.840 recount. But the federal electoral tribunal says 00:15:18.840 --> 00:15:21.100 no to a full recount. They only allow a partial 00:15:21.100 --> 00:15:23.519 one. and then they officially declare Calderon 00:15:23.519 --> 00:15:25.379 the winner. And this is where AMLO does something 00:15:25.379 --> 00:15:27.340 that I think a standard Western politician would 00:15:27.340 --> 00:15:29.940 just never do. A standard politician concedes 00:15:29.940 --> 00:15:32.679 the race, writes a memoir, makes some money giving 00:15:32.679 --> 00:15:35.279 speeches, and maybe runs again in six years. 00:15:35.840 --> 00:15:38.779 What did AMLO do? He held the capital city hostage. 00:15:39.279 --> 00:15:41.799 He called on his millions of supporters to literally 00:15:41.799 --> 00:15:44.700 occupy Paseo de la Reforma. For you listening 00:15:44.700 --> 00:15:47.539 who haven't been to Mexico City, describe Reforma. 00:15:47.720 --> 00:15:50.659 Imagine shutting down 5th Avenue in New York 00:15:50.659 --> 00:15:53.500 or the National Mall in DC or the Champs -Elysees 00:15:53.500 --> 00:15:56.919 in Paris. It is the absolute economic, cultural, 00:15:57.100 --> 00:15:59.740 and historical artery of the city. He set up 00:15:59.740 --> 00:16:03.409 protest tent cities. For weeks. Kilometer after 00:16:03.409 --> 00:16:06.330 kilometer of tents, sleeping bags, portable toilets, 00:16:06.549 --> 00:16:08.990 and angry speeches blocking the entire financial 00:16:08.990 --> 00:16:11.070 district. That must have completely infuriated 00:16:11.070 --> 00:16:13.230 the middle and upper classes. Oh, they despised 00:16:13.230 --> 00:16:15.809 him for it. The traffic was an apocalyptic nightmare. 00:16:16.090 --> 00:16:18.190 Businesses lost millions of dollars. It was pure 00:16:18.190 --> 00:16:20.909 chaos. But AMLA was sending a very clear message 00:16:20.909 --> 00:16:23.429 to the elite. If you steal the presidency from 00:16:23.429 --> 00:16:26.330 me, you do not get a functional country to govern. 00:16:26.649 --> 00:16:28.289 And then he took it a step further, right? The 00:16:28.289 --> 00:16:31.500 legitimate presidency. Yes. This was the moment 00:16:31.500 --> 00:16:33.779 where many moderate observers thought he had 00:16:33.779 --> 00:16:37.480 finally lost his mind. In November 2006, in the 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:40.000 Zocalo of the main square, he held a public ceremony. 00:16:40.500 --> 00:16:43.960 He put on a presidential sash, a fake one. He 00:16:43.960 --> 00:16:46.460 swore an oath of office to the crowd. He even 00:16:46.460 --> 00:16:48.539 appointed a shadow cabinet called the Cabinet 00:16:48.539 --> 00:16:52.039 of Denunciation. He declared himself the legitimate 00:16:52.039 --> 00:16:54.340 president of Mexico. I mean, to the outside world, 00:16:54.340 --> 00:16:55.779 that looks like a delusion. It looks almost like 00:16:55.779 --> 00:16:57.740 a cult leader. It definitely looked pathetic 00:16:57.740 --> 00:17:00.759 to his critics. Polling at the time showed 56 00:17:00.759 --> 00:17:03.259 percent of the public strongly disapproved of 00:17:03.259 --> 00:17:06.700 him using that fake title. But to his hardcore 00:17:06.700 --> 00:17:09.299 base, it was the ultimate act of defiance. It 00:17:09.299 --> 00:17:11.640 kept the social movement alive. He spent the 00:17:11.640 --> 00:17:14.519 next six years touring the country as this shadow 00:17:14.519 --> 00:17:16.980 president. He literally visited every single 00:17:16.980 --> 00:17:19.079 municipality in Mexico, no matter how remote 00:17:19.079 --> 00:17:22.039 or dangerous, to build a grassroots organization. 00:17:22.180 --> 00:17:24.059 So he was playing the ultimate long game. The 00:17:24.059 --> 00:17:26.319 longest possible game. But he runs again in 2012 00:17:26.319 --> 00:17:29.759 and he loses again. He does. He loses to Enrique 00:17:29.759 --> 00:17:32.279 Pena Nieto, who brought the old PRI back to power. 00:17:32.680 --> 00:17:35.220 And this time the margin was much clearer. He 00:17:35.220 --> 00:17:38.140 lost by about 6 percent. He still claimed fraud, 00:17:38.140 --> 00:17:41.319 of course. He accused the PRI of buying millions 00:17:41.319 --> 00:17:44.259 of votes using prepaid grocery store gift cards 00:17:44.259 --> 00:17:46.720 from a chain called Soriana. But the country 00:17:46.720 --> 00:17:49.000 as a whole had kind of moved on. And this is 00:17:49.000 --> 00:17:51.039 the point where a political story usually ends. 00:17:51.359 --> 00:17:53.440 He's a two time presidential loser. He's getting 00:17:53.440 --> 00:17:56.440 older. His own party, the PRD, is clearly tired 00:17:56.440 --> 00:17:59.000 of him. They actually sign a political agreement 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:02.220 called the Pact for Mexico with the new PRI president 00:18:02.220 --> 00:18:05.000 to support neoliberal economic reforms. And this 00:18:05.000 --> 00:18:07.599 leads to AMLO's second act of either sheer genius 00:18:07.599 --> 00:18:10.359 or sheer madness, depending on who you ask. He 00:18:10.359 --> 00:18:12.799 divorces his party. He just leaves the PRD, the 00:18:12.799 --> 00:18:14.660 major national party he helped found back in 00:18:14.660 --> 00:18:17.039 the 80s. He walks completely away. He tells them 00:18:17.039 --> 00:18:18.619 you are collaborating with what he calls the 00:18:18.619 --> 00:18:21.519 mafia of power. And he decides to start his own 00:18:21.519 --> 00:18:23.759 political party entirely from scratch. He calls 00:18:23.759 --> 00:18:26.099 it Morena. The National Regeneration Movement. 00:18:26.349 --> 00:18:29.289 Exactly. And note the cleverness of the name 00:18:29.289 --> 00:18:31.950 Morena. Culturally, it refers to the Virgin of 00:18:31.950 --> 00:18:35.029 Guadalupe la Morenita, the dark skinned virgin 00:18:35.029 --> 00:18:39.710 patron saint of Mexico. It is a incredibly powerful 00:18:39.710 --> 00:18:43.410 religious and nationalist dog whistle wrapped 00:18:43.410 --> 00:18:45.710 in a political acronym. That is deeply savvy. 00:18:46.009 --> 00:18:48.670 And he builds this thing from zero in 2014 to 00:18:48.670 --> 00:18:51.269 winning the actual presidency in 2018. That is 00:18:51.269 --> 00:18:53.569 an incredibly fast rise for a brand new party. 00:18:53.829 --> 00:18:57.059 It's a political blitzkrieg. And by 2018, the 00:18:57.059 --> 00:18:59.019 historical stars had finally aligned for him. 00:18:59.579 --> 00:19:02.460 The PRI government under Peña Nieto had completely 00:19:02.460 --> 00:19:04.579 collapsed under massive corruption scandals. 00:19:04.940 --> 00:19:06.779 The cartel violence was spiraling completely 00:19:06.779 --> 00:19:09.579 out of control. The horrific tragedy of the 43 00:19:09.579 --> 00:19:11.720 students disappeared and Ayotzinapa happened. 00:19:12.059 --> 00:19:14.480 The country was heartbroken, exhausted and furious. 00:19:14.940 --> 00:19:17.039 And Emil was the only major figure standing there 00:19:17.039 --> 00:19:19.000 saying, I told you so. I told you they were corrupt. 00:19:19.259 --> 00:19:21.339 And he builds this massive electoral coalition 00:19:21.339 --> 00:19:23.759 called Juntos Jaremos Historia. Together we will 00:19:23.759 --> 00:19:25.779 make history. But looking at the actual makeup 00:19:25.779 --> 00:19:27.460 of that coalition in the source text, it's a 00:19:27.460 --> 00:19:29.519 total Frankenstein monster. It really is. He 00:19:29.519 --> 00:19:31.200 brings in the traditional hard left with the 00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:33.599 Labour Party, sure. But he also brings in the 00:19:33.599 --> 00:19:36.779 PES, the Social Encounter Party. And these are 00:19:36.779 --> 00:19:39.599 staunch evangelical social conservatives. They 00:19:39.599 --> 00:19:42.319 are anti -abortion and anti -gay rights. Why? 00:19:42.660 --> 00:19:46.279 Why would a lifelong progressive leftist ally 00:19:46.279 --> 00:19:49.460 with the evangelical religious right? Because 00:19:49.460 --> 00:19:52.099 he needed the absolute maximum number of votes 00:19:52.099 --> 00:19:55.420 to overwhelm any potential fraud. And he recognized 00:19:55.420 --> 00:19:57.740 deeply that the Mexican working class his base 00:19:57.740 --> 00:20:00.700 is fundamentally socially conservative. It was 00:20:00.700 --> 00:20:03.460 pure ruthless pragmatism. The central message 00:20:03.460 --> 00:20:06.000 wasn't about progressive social issues. The message 00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:08.599 was simply anti -corruption and hugs not bullets. 00:20:08.819 --> 00:20:10.720 And the result was an absolute tsunami at the 00:20:10.720 --> 00:20:13.720 polls. 53 % of the popular vote. In a multi -party 00:20:13.720 --> 00:20:15.700 system that is massive. It was the first outright 00:20:15.700 --> 00:20:18.759 majority since 1988. He won 31 out of the 32 00:20:18.759 --> 00:20:21.259 states. He crushed the PRI and the PAN. They 00:20:21.259 --> 00:20:23.599 were basically obliterated. So finally, after 00:20:23.599 --> 00:20:25.799 12 grueling years of campaigning, he walks into 00:20:25.799 --> 00:20:28.240 the National Palace. He's the actual president. 00:20:28.460 --> 00:20:30.799 And he announces the fourth transformation. The 00:20:30.799 --> 00:20:33.400 40 officially begins. So let's talk about the 00:20:33.400 --> 00:20:36.039 style of this presidency first. Because the sources 00:20:36.039 --> 00:20:38.339 make it clear he didn't just change the policies. 00:20:38.619 --> 00:20:41.240 He fundamentally changed the vibe and the aesthetic 00:20:41.240 --> 00:20:44.420 of the presidency. Completely. He immediately 00:20:44.420 --> 00:20:47.039 rejected what he called the imperial presidency 00:20:47.039 --> 00:20:49.720 of his predecessors. He refused to live in Los 00:20:49.720 --> 00:20:52.700 Pinos, which was the highly luxurious presidential 00:20:52.700 --> 00:20:55.099 residence with these manicured gardens and mansions. 00:20:55.339 --> 00:20:58.440 He just opened the gates to the public. Ordinary 00:20:58.440 --> 00:21:00.619 people were literally walking through the elite 00:21:00.619 --> 00:21:03.039 bedrooms, taking selfies where the old presidents 00:21:03.039 --> 00:21:05.180 used to sleep. And he moved his own residence 00:21:05.180 --> 00:21:07.660 into the National Palace, right? Yes, into an 00:21:07.660 --> 00:21:09.980 apartment inside the historic government building 00:21:09.980 --> 00:21:13.859 downtown. the symbolism of living where Benito 00:21:13.859 --> 00:21:15.980 Juarez lived. But the biggest sample of all the 00:21:15.980 --> 00:21:18.559 one that became a global news meme was the airplane. 00:21:19.119 --> 00:21:22.619 The infamous Boeing 787 Dreamliner. I looked 00:21:22.619 --> 00:21:24.880 up the specs on this thing. It was absurdly fancy. 00:21:25.240 --> 00:21:28.420 Oh, marble bathrooms, a master bedroom suite, 00:21:28.599 --> 00:21:31.019 leather recliners. The previous administration 00:21:31.019 --> 00:21:33.380 had bought it. Amala looked at it and said this 00:21:33.380 --> 00:21:36.319 is a grotesque insult to a country with so much 00:21:36.319 --> 00:21:39.500 poverty. He flat out refused to ever step foot 00:21:39.500 --> 00:21:42.380 on it. He flew commercial airlines for his whole 00:21:42.380 --> 00:21:45.019 term. You would constantly see cell phone photos 00:21:45.019 --> 00:21:47.099 of the president of Mexico sitting in a window 00:21:47.099 --> 00:21:50.140 seat in coach, sandwiched between regular commuters, 00:21:50.319 --> 00:21:52.559 eating a bag of peanuts. And he tried to sell 00:21:52.559 --> 00:21:55.319 the luxury plane, right? For years. He couldn't 00:21:55.319 --> 00:21:57.440 find a buyer willing to pay the price. It actually 00:21:57.440 --> 00:22:00.140 became a bit of a farce. He even held a national 00:22:00.140 --> 00:22:02.960 raffle for the plane. But the grand prize wasn't 00:22:02.960 --> 00:22:05.099 actually the plane itself. It was just a cash 00:22:05.099 --> 00:22:07.700 equivalent split among winners. It was an administrative 00:22:07.700 --> 00:22:11.140 mess. But the symbolism worked flawlessly. The 00:22:11.140 --> 00:22:14.160 message was, I am not a rich king. I am one of 00:22:14.160 --> 00:22:16.890 you. But symbols are cheap. Let's talk about 00:22:16.890 --> 00:22:19.730 the actual massive economic decisions. We have 00:22:19.730 --> 00:22:22.250 to stop and really dwell on the airport cancellation 00:22:22.250 --> 00:22:24.950 because reading the timeline, this is the exact 00:22:24.950 --> 00:22:26.470 moment where I think the international business 00:22:26.470 --> 00:22:28.170 community had a collective heart attack. The 00:22:28.170 --> 00:22:31.670 Texcoco airport saga. Yes. Right. Because this 00:22:31.670 --> 00:22:33.670 wasn't just a sketch on a napkin. This was a 00:22:33.670 --> 00:22:36.450 massive futuristic Norman Foster design, the 00:22:36.450 --> 00:22:38.869 famous architect who did the Apple spaceship 00:22:38.869 --> 00:22:41.170 headquarters in California. Right. It was already 00:22:41.170 --> 00:22:43.650 30 percent built. There were billions of dollars 00:22:43.650 --> 00:22:45.789 of steel and concrete already in the ground. 00:22:45.640 --> 00:22:47.920 and AMLO comes into office and just says, now 00:22:47.920 --> 00:22:50.420 we're not doing this. He argued it was riddled 00:22:50.420 --> 00:22:53.539 with corrupt contracts, wildly expensive, and 00:22:53.539 --> 00:22:55.880 environmentally disastrous because it was sinking 00:22:55.880 --> 00:22:58.859 into an ancient lake bed. But his method for 00:22:58.859 --> 00:23:01.460 canceling it was the real shocker. He holds a 00:23:01.460 --> 00:23:03.619 public consultation. Like a national referendum 00:23:03.619 --> 00:23:05.960 vote. A vote is a very generous term. It was 00:23:05.960 --> 00:23:08.900 run entirely by his own party, Marina. It was 00:23:08.900 --> 00:23:11.539 completely unauthorized by the Independent Electoral 00:23:11.539 --> 00:23:14.440 Commission. They set up voting booths mostly 00:23:14.440 --> 00:23:16.700 in poor neighborhoods where his hardcore supporters 00:23:16.700 --> 00:23:18.599 lived. Less than one percent of the national 00:23:18.599 --> 00:23:21.279 population actually voted. And surprise, surprise, 00:23:21.299 --> 00:23:23.839 they voted to kill the megaproject. But here 00:23:23.839 --> 00:23:25.839 is what I really don't get from reading the financial 00:23:25.839 --> 00:23:28.880 reports. The sources say it literally costs more 00:23:28.880 --> 00:23:31.019 money to cancel the existing contracts paying 00:23:31.019 --> 00:23:33.240 off the Wall Street bondholders and construction. 00:23:33.289 --> 00:23:35.549 than it would have cost to just finish the damn 00:23:35.549 --> 00:23:39.089 thing. We're talking about four billion US dollars 00:23:39.089 --> 00:23:42.130 in cancellation fees. That is literally lighting 00:23:42.130 --> 00:23:45.670 money on fire. Why would a populist man of the 00:23:45.670 --> 00:23:48.970 people intentionally burn four billion dollars? 00:23:49.250 --> 00:23:52.369 This is a crucial insight into his mindset. If 00:23:52.369 --> 00:23:54.390 you look at it purely as an economic decision, 00:23:54.529 --> 00:23:57.190 it is totally irrational and stupid. But if you 00:23:57.190 --> 00:24:00.109 look at it as a political decision, It is a stroke 00:24:00.109 --> 00:24:02.410 of dark brilliance. How does that make sense? 00:24:02.490 --> 00:24:04.089 It was the ultimate power move. He was sending 00:24:04.089 --> 00:24:06.390 a definitive message to the Mexican oligarchs 00:24:06.390 --> 00:24:07.950 and the international markets. He was saying, 00:24:08.150 --> 00:24:09.769 you are not in charge of this country anymore. 00:24:09.829 --> 00:24:12.490 I am. So it was an assertion of raw dominance. 00:24:12.799 --> 00:24:16.180 absolute dominance. He essentially proved that 00:24:16.180 --> 00:24:20.180 his personal political will could and would override 00:24:20.180 --> 00:24:23.720 basic economic logic. He broke the golden handcuffs 00:24:23.720 --> 00:24:26.140 that usually constrain developing world presidents. 00:24:26.559 --> 00:24:30.000 He was perfectly willing to pay $4 billion just 00:24:30.000 --> 00:24:32.799 to prove that he was the unquestioned boss. And 00:24:32.799 --> 00:24:35.690 from that moment on, the business elite were 00:24:35.690 --> 00:24:38.089 terrified of crossing him. And he replaced that 00:24:38.089 --> 00:24:41.230 futuristic hub with the AIFA airport, which was 00:24:41.230 --> 00:24:43.990 built on a military base, which is, let's just 00:24:43.990 --> 00:24:46.529 say, significantly less glamorous. It's basically 00:24:46.529 --> 00:24:48.450 a functional warehouse compared to the foster 00:24:48.450 --> 00:24:51.329 design. But for Amlow, it was a major campaign 00:24:51.329 --> 00:24:53.789 promise kept. And he built other massive projects, 00:24:54.109 --> 00:24:56.410 too. The Mayan train, which is a huge tourist 00:24:56.410 --> 00:24:59.109 railway cutting right through the Yucatan Peninsula, 00:24:59.170 --> 00:25:01.390 which environmentalists absolutely hated because 00:25:01.390 --> 00:25:03.769 it was destroying ancient caves and virgin jungle. 00:25:03.769 --> 00:25:06.500 Right. But he pushed it through by legally classifying 00:25:06.500 --> 00:25:08.940 it as a matter of national security to bypass 00:25:08.940 --> 00:25:11.019 the environmental injunctions. And he built the 00:25:11.019 --> 00:25:13.799 Dos Abocas oil refinery, a massive investment 00:25:13.799 --> 00:25:16.180 in fossil fuels because his goal was total energy 00:25:16.180 --> 00:25:18.660 sovereignty. He wanted Mexico to completely stop 00:25:18.660 --> 00:25:21.319 importing refined gasoline from Texas. Okay, 00:25:21.359 --> 00:25:24.079 let's pivot to the other giant promise, security. 00:25:24.920 --> 00:25:29.259 The famous slogan, hugs, not bullets. Abrazos 00:25:29.259 --> 00:25:32.349 nobelazos. The philosophy behind it sounds beautiful 00:25:32.349 --> 00:25:35.829 on paper. The core idea is that violence is inherently 00:25:35.829 --> 00:25:38.930 caused by extreme inequality and a lack of opportunity 00:25:38.930 --> 00:25:41.390 for young men. You cannot simply shoot your way 00:25:41.390 --> 00:25:43.750 out of a drug war. You have to heal the underlying 00:25:43.750 --> 00:25:46.950 society. So the theory goes if you give out scholarships, 00:25:47.109 --> 00:25:50.410 create jobs and give pensions, the cartel recruitment 00:25:50.410 --> 00:25:52.789 pool dries up and the crime will naturally fade 00:25:52.789 --> 00:25:55.269 away. But the cartels in reality, they aren't 00:25:55.269 --> 00:25:58.410 exactly social workers waiting for a grant. They 00:25:58.410 --> 00:26:01.200 have armored vehicles. and anti -aircraft guns. 00:26:01.779 --> 00:26:04.400 Exactly. And this idealistic philosophy hit a 00:26:04.400 --> 00:26:07.839 brutal brick wall in October 2019. The event 00:26:07.839 --> 00:26:10.480 known as the Culiacanazo. Reading the account 00:26:10.480 --> 00:26:12.700 of this in our notes, this story feels like a 00:26:12.700 --> 00:26:15.420 dystopian action movie script. It was an absolute 00:26:15.420 --> 00:26:17.380 disaster for the Mexican state. The military 00:26:17.380 --> 00:26:19.579 captured Ovidio Guzman, who was one of the sons 00:26:19.579 --> 00:26:21.740 of the infamous El Chapo. They grabbed him in 00:26:21.740 --> 00:26:23.460 a house in Culiacan, Sinaloa. It was supposed 00:26:23.460 --> 00:26:25.759 to be a standard extraction operation. And then 00:26:25.759 --> 00:26:28.099 the Sinaloa cartel called for backup. They didn't 00:26:28.099 --> 00:26:30.720 just call for backup. They mobilized an entire 00:26:30.720 --> 00:26:34.230 private army. Within minutes, hundreds of heavily 00:26:34.230 --> 00:26:36.329 armed gunmen in tactical gear surrounded the 00:26:36.329 --> 00:26:39.230 entire city. They burned semi -trucks and buses 00:26:39.230 --> 00:26:41.750 to block all the highway exits. They initiated 00:26:41.750 --> 00:26:44.250 massive prison breaks. And worst of all, they 00:26:44.250 --> 00:26:46.289 surrounded the military housing complex where 00:26:46.289 --> 00:26:48.890 the soldiers' wives and children lived. They 00:26:48.890 --> 00:26:51.109 sent direct videos to the military commander 00:26:51.109 --> 00:26:53.130 saying, we will execute your families right now 00:26:53.130 --> 00:26:55.250 if you don't let them go. They took a city of 00:26:55.250 --> 00:26:58.470 almost a million people hostage. They completely 00:26:58.470 --> 00:27:00.829 outgunned and outmaneuvered the Mexican state 00:27:00.829 --> 00:27:03.730 in broad daylight. And AMLO, who is the commander 00:27:03.730 --> 00:27:06.549 -in -chief, made the final call. He explicitly 00:27:06.549 --> 00:27:08.789 ordered the military to release a video. You 00:27:08.789 --> 00:27:10.970 just let a top -tier drug lord walk away. He 00:27:10.970 --> 00:27:13.569 let him go. Later in his press conferences, he 00:27:13.569 --> 00:27:16.069 said he did it to save lives. He argued that 00:27:16.069 --> 00:27:18.809 a horrific bloodbath involving hundreds of innocent 00:27:18.809 --> 00:27:20.890 civilians would have happened if the army tried 00:27:20.890 --> 00:27:23.009 to fight their way out. Which, I mean, you can 00:27:23.009 --> 00:27:25.490 certainly argue is a rational humanitarian decision 00:27:25.490 --> 00:27:29.690 in that terrifying moment, but politically, historically, 00:27:30.089 --> 00:27:32.250 what kind of signal does that send to the cartels? 00:27:32.670 --> 00:27:35.069 It sent the terrifying signal that the democratic 00:27:35.069 --> 00:27:37.410 state is not the supreme authority in Mexico. 00:27:37.869 --> 00:27:40.109 It proved that if you have enough heavy weapons 00:27:40.109 --> 00:27:42.470 and ruthlessness, you can successfully negotiate 00:27:42.470 --> 00:27:44.650 with the president of the republic. It was a 00:27:44.650 --> 00:27:47.619 profound humiliation. Now, they did eventually 00:27:47.619 --> 00:27:50.519 recapture Ovidio years later in 2023 in a much 00:27:50.519 --> 00:27:53.359 more violent operation where 29 people died and 00:27:53.359 --> 00:27:55.839 they extradited him to the U .S. But the damage 00:27:55.839 --> 00:27:58.359 to the state's aura of invincibility was done. 00:27:59.019 --> 00:28:01.660 And zooming out, did Hugs Not Bullets actually 00:28:01.660 --> 00:28:03.940 work? Did the overall violence go down during 00:28:03.940 --> 00:28:07.279 his six years? Not really, no. 2019 and 2020 00:28:07.279 --> 00:28:09.180 were some of the most horrific years on record. 00:28:09.339 --> 00:28:11.299 By the end of his term, the homicide rates did 00:28:11.299 --> 00:28:13.900 stabilize and dip slightly down about 7 percent 00:28:13.900 --> 00:28:16.990 by 2022, but they were remained at historically 00:28:16.990 --> 00:28:20.430 staggering levels, over 30 ,000 murders a year. 00:28:20.950 --> 00:28:22.849 And critics argue that the strategy of intentionally 00:28:22.849 --> 00:28:24.829 not confronting the cartels directly allowed 00:28:24.829 --> 00:28:26.849 these groups to vastly expand their territory. 00:28:27.210 --> 00:28:29.309 They started heavily extorting legitimate businesses 00:28:29.309 --> 00:28:31.869 like avocado and lime farmers and basically taking 00:28:31.869 --> 00:28:34.990 over local municipal governments. And yet here 00:28:34.990 --> 00:28:38.430 is a wild paradox. While he was preaching hugs 00:28:38.430 --> 00:28:41.930 and non -confrontation, he simultaneously militarized 00:28:41.930 --> 00:28:44.470 the country more than any right wing general 00:28:44.470 --> 00:28:47.630 ever did in modern Mexican history. This is perhaps 00:28:47.630 --> 00:28:50.170 the greatest contradiction of his entire legacy. 00:28:50.509 --> 00:28:53.009 He came into office and immediately disbanded 00:28:53.009 --> 00:28:55.170 the federal police, claiming they were fundamentally 00:28:55.170 --> 00:28:58.589 rotten and corrupt. He replaced them with a brand 00:28:58.589 --> 00:29:01.369 new force called the National Guard. But the 00:29:01.369 --> 00:29:03.089 National Guard is basically just the military, 00:29:03.230 --> 00:29:06.009 right? Exactly. It was supposed to be under civilian 00:29:06.009 --> 00:29:08.450 command, but it was overwhelmingly staffed by 00:29:08.450 --> 00:29:12.019 active duty Army and Navy personnel. But he didn't 00:29:12.019 --> 00:29:14.799 stop at policing. He gave the military almost 00:29:14.799 --> 00:29:16.799 everything. What do you mean by everything? They 00:29:16.799 --> 00:29:18.920 aren't just fighting crime anymore. The Army 00:29:18.920 --> 00:29:21.500 is now building the civilian airports. The Navy 00:29:21.500 --> 00:29:23.680 is running the customs offices at the seaports 00:29:23.680 --> 00:29:26.720 to stop fentanyl chemicals. The Army is constructing 00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:29.480 the Mayan train. The military was put in charge 00:29:29.480 --> 00:29:31.779 of distributing the COVID vaccines. They are 00:29:31.779 --> 00:29:34.299 even running a newly launched state -owned commercial 00:29:34.299 --> 00:29:37.480 airline and managing tourist hotels. But why? 00:29:37.880 --> 00:29:41.559 Why? Why does a historic leftist who spent his 00:29:41.559 --> 00:29:45.339 youth protesting army abuses suddenly give the 00:29:45.339 --> 00:29:47.940 generals the keys to the entire civilian kingdom? 00:29:48.059 --> 00:29:50.920 Because he genuinely views the traditional civilian 00:29:50.920 --> 00:29:54.380 bureaucracy as hopelessly lazy and irredeemably 00:29:54.380 --> 00:29:58.480 corrupt. But the army, he calls them Pueblo uniformado, 00:29:58.640 --> 00:30:01.019 the people in uniform. He sees them as loyal. 00:30:01.140 --> 00:30:03.180 They don't ask questions. They don't demand bribes 00:30:03.180 --> 00:30:05.819 from him. And they build infrastructure incredibly 00:30:05.819 --> 00:30:08.720 fast. He basically fell in love with their rigid 00:30:08.720 --> 00:30:11.160 efficiency. But human rights groups and critics 00:30:11.160 --> 00:30:13.259 warn that once you give the armed forces that 00:30:13.259 --> 00:30:15.819 much independent budget and economic power, it 00:30:15.819 --> 00:30:17.740 is going to be nearly impossible for any future 00:30:17.740 --> 00:30:19.619 president to put them back in the barracks. OK, 00:30:19.680 --> 00:30:21.440 let's switch gears to the other side of the coin, 00:30:21.880 --> 00:30:23.900 because despite the rampant cartel violence and 00:30:23.900 --> 00:30:26.119 the controversial militarization, his approval 00:30:26.119 --> 00:30:29.019 rating stayed glued at around 80 percent. And 00:30:29.019 --> 00:30:30.700 reading the data, it has to be the money, right? 00:30:30.920 --> 00:30:33.660 The social programs. It is absolutely the cash. 00:30:33.900 --> 00:30:36.500 This is the concrete bedrock of his enduring 00:30:36.500 --> 00:30:39.700 popularity. He completely redesigned how welfare 00:30:39.700 --> 00:30:42.940 works. He eliminated all the traditional intermediaries. 00:30:43.019 --> 00:30:47.059 He cut off funding to independent NGOs, to local 00:30:47.059 --> 00:30:49.180 community leaders, to farmers unions. He said 00:30:49.180 --> 00:30:51.460 they were all skimming off the top and he just 00:30:51.460 --> 00:30:53.519 sent the money directly to the individual citizens. 00:30:53.640 --> 00:30:56.119 Through debit cards. Exactly. The Biana Star 00:30:56.119 --> 00:30:58.519 or welfare cards. He doubled the cash pension 00:30:58.519 --> 00:31:01.039 for the elderly. And crucially, he made it a 00:31:01.039 --> 00:31:03.769 universal constitutional right. Even if you are 00:31:03.769 --> 00:31:06.009 a wealthy businessman, you get the pension. It's 00:31:06.009 --> 00:31:08.690 a right of citizenship, not a conditional handout. 00:31:08.880 --> 00:31:12.180 He also created a massive program called Jovenes 00:31:12.180 --> 00:31:14.680 Construyendo el Futuro Youth Building the Future, 00:31:14.759 --> 00:31:17.059 which provided paid monthly apprenticeships to 00:31:17.059 --> 00:31:19.460 keep unemployed young people away from cartel 00:31:19.460 --> 00:31:21.400 recruitment. And he also pushed through aggressive 00:31:21.400 --> 00:31:23.960 minimum wage hikes, right? Massive increases. 00:31:24.119 --> 00:31:27.180 We are talking double digit percentage hikes 00:31:27.180 --> 00:31:30.319 year after year. The conservative business sector 00:31:30.319 --> 00:31:33.519 screamed that this would inevitably cause hyperinflation 00:31:33.519 --> 00:31:36.819 and crash the formal economy. But it didn't. 00:31:36.880 --> 00:31:40.099 It vastly lifted the economic floor for the poorest 00:31:40.099 --> 00:31:43.420 workers in the country without destroying macroeconomic 00:31:43.420 --> 00:31:46.059 stability. So if you are a grandmother living 00:31:46.059 --> 00:31:49.859 in a rural village in Chiapas or Tabasco, you 00:31:49.859 --> 00:31:51.960 used to feel completely ignored by the political 00:31:51.960 --> 00:31:54.160 elite. Now suddenly you get a direct bank deposit 00:31:54.160 --> 00:31:55.839 every single month and the envelope basically 00:31:55.839 --> 00:31:57.720 says it's directly from the president. And you 00:31:57.720 --> 00:32:00.740 finally feel seen by the state. That deep emotional 00:32:00.740 --> 00:32:03.440 connection is worth exponentially more than any 00:32:03.440 --> 00:32:06.859 shiny new airport or abstract democratic institution. 00:32:07.339 --> 00:32:09.460 He restored a sense of dignity to the extreme 00:32:09.460 --> 00:32:11.900 poor. But how did he actually pay for all this 00:32:11.900 --> 00:32:14.559 cash distribution? Because giving universal pensions, 00:32:14.660 --> 00:32:16.779 it's expensive. Did he take out massive international 00:32:16.779 --> 00:32:20.309 loans? No. And this is another major surprise 00:32:20.309 --> 00:32:23.890 that confounds his critics. He is actually a 00:32:23.890 --> 00:32:27.849 severe fiscal hawk. He hated national debt. He 00:32:27.849 --> 00:32:31.049 flat out refused to take on massive debt, even 00:32:31.049 --> 00:32:33.329 during the worst economic shocks of the COVID 00:32:33.329 --> 00:32:35.849 pandemic when every other country was printing 00:32:35.849 --> 00:32:38.259 money. So where did the billions come from? He 00:32:38.259 --> 00:32:40.819 paid for it through a doctrine he called Republican 00:32:40.819 --> 00:32:43.880 austerity. He viciously slashed the operating 00:32:43.880 --> 00:32:45.680 budgets of almost all the federal government 00:32:45.680 --> 00:32:48.180 ministries. He fired thousands of mid -level 00:32:48.180 --> 00:32:50.900 bureaucrats. He cut federal funding for scientific 00:32:50.900 --> 00:32:53.819 research bodies. He slashed the budget for environmental 00:32:53.819 --> 00:32:55.700 protection. He cut culture and arts funding. 00:32:56.019 --> 00:32:58.380 He basically gutted the administrative state 00:32:58.380 --> 00:33:01.160 to free up cash to feed the poor. So it was a 00:33:01.160 --> 00:33:03.829 massive transfer of wealth. Robbing Peter to 00:33:03.829 --> 00:33:06.490 pay Paul. Or stripping the fat to feed the muscle, 00:33:06.569 --> 00:33:08.569 depending entirely on your political viewpoint. 00:33:09.009 --> 00:33:11.190 But the macroeconomy stayed incredibly stable. 00:33:11.470 --> 00:33:14.309 The Mexican peso was so unexpectedly strong against 00:33:14.309 --> 00:33:16.289 the dollar during his term, they started calling 00:33:16.289 --> 00:33:20.029 it the super peso. Wall Street investors ironically 00:33:20.029 --> 00:33:21.950 kind of loved him because he absolutely refused 00:33:21.950 --> 00:33:24.369 to blow up the national budget deficit. Let's 00:33:24.369 --> 00:33:26.829 talk about foreign policy and the massive elephant 00:33:26.829 --> 00:33:30.089 in the room, the orange elephant. Donald Trump. 00:33:30.410 --> 00:33:33.009 Oh, the bromance. I mean everyone on paper thought 00:33:33.009 --> 00:33:35.690 this relationship would be a catastrophic disaster. 00:33:36.289 --> 00:33:38.730 Trump launched his political career calling Mexicans 00:33:38.730 --> 00:33:41.630 rapists and promising to build a wall. AMLO is 00:33:41.630 --> 00:33:44.410 a fierce left -wing Mexican nationalist who wrote 00:33:44.410 --> 00:33:46.849 a book criticizing Trump. It should have been 00:33:46.849 --> 00:33:49.029 an all -out diplomatic war. And yet they got 00:33:49.029 --> 00:33:51.410 along famously. How is that even possible? Pure 00:33:51.410 --> 00:33:54.569 transactional pragmatism from both men. AMLO 00:33:54.569 --> 00:33:56.869 quickly realized that Trump did not care at all 00:33:56.869 --> 00:33:59.390 about abstract things like democratic norms or 00:33:59.390 --> 00:34:01.589 press freedom or human rights inside Mexico. 00:34:01.970 --> 00:34:04.809 Trump only cared about one single visceral issue, 00:34:05.250 --> 00:34:07.849 migration. Stop the visible flow of undocumented 00:34:07.849 --> 00:34:10.309 people to the U .S. border. So to avoid Trump's 00:34:10.309 --> 00:34:12.829 threat of crippling economic tariffs, AMLO just 00:34:12.829 --> 00:34:16.659 became the wall. Essentially, yes. AMLO deployed 00:34:16.659 --> 00:34:19.059 his newly formed, heavily armed National Guard 00:34:19.059 --> 00:34:22.000 to the southern border with Guatemala to physically 00:34:22.000 --> 00:34:24.900 beat back migrant caravans from Central America. 00:34:25.579 --> 00:34:28.260 He did Trump's dirty work on immigration enforcement. 00:34:29.000 --> 00:34:31.320 And in exchange, Trump completely stayed out 00:34:31.320 --> 00:34:34.039 of AMLO's domestic business. Trump never criticized 00:34:34.039 --> 00:34:36.340 the controversial energy reforms or the attacks 00:34:36.340 --> 00:34:38.440 on the Mexican Electoral Institute. It was a 00:34:38.440 --> 00:34:41.170 very clean trade. You give me the border security 00:34:41.170 --> 00:34:43.610 I need from my base and I give you total silence 00:34:43.610 --> 00:34:46.170 on your domestic agenda. Exactly. They respected 00:34:46.170 --> 00:34:49.110 each other as strongmen. When AMLO visited Washington 00:34:49.110 --> 00:34:51.829 DC in 2020, it was surreal. They were publicly 00:34:51.829 --> 00:34:53.650 showering each other with praise in the Rose 00:34:53.650 --> 00:34:56.349 Garden. AMLO later explicitly said about Trump, 00:34:56.630 --> 00:34:59.030 we are not a colony and he respects us. But AMLO 00:34:59.030 --> 00:35:01.210 did actively stand up to the US on the issue 00:35:01.210 --> 00:35:04.860 of weapons. Yes. This was a very aggressive and 00:35:04.860 --> 00:35:07.320 innovative diplomatic move. His government formally 00:35:07.320 --> 00:35:09.800 sued U .S. gun manufacturers in American federal 00:35:09.800 --> 00:35:12.239 court. Companies like Smith & Wesson and Barrett. 00:35:12.579 --> 00:35:15.000 What was the core legal argument there? The Mexican 00:35:15.000 --> 00:35:17.659 government argued that these American corporations 00:35:17.659 --> 00:35:21.159 knowingly design, market, and distribute military 00:35:21.159 --> 00:35:24.119 -style weapons in ways that actively appeal to 00:35:24.119 --> 00:35:27.260 and arm the Mexican drug cartels. Because the 00:35:27.260 --> 00:35:29.039 stats in our research note that something like 00:35:29.039 --> 00:35:31.119 70 % of the guns recovered at crime scenes in 00:35:31.119 --> 00:35:34.340 Mexico originate from the U .S., the so -called 00:35:34.340 --> 00:35:37.260 Iron River of weapons. Right. And surprisingly, 00:35:37.659 --> 00:35:40.099 Mexico actually won a key victory in a U .S. 00:35:40.260 --> 00:35:43.440 appeals court in 2024 to keep that massive lawsuit 00:35:43.440 --> 00:35:46.179 alive. It was a very politically savvy move by 00:35:46.179 --> 00:35:48.559 AMLO. It allowed him to shift the blame for the 00:35:48.559 --> 00:35:50.880 rampant violence away from his own failed security 00:35:50.880 --> 00:35:53.639 policies and point the finger directly at the 00:35:53.639 --> 00:35:55.780 U .S. while also highlighting a very genuine 00:35:55.780 --> 00:35:57.840 cross border problem. And what about his relationship 00:35:57.840 --> 00:35:59.480 with the rest of Latin America and the world? 00:35:59.659 --> 00:36:02.860 Very ideological. He granted immediate political 00:36:02.860 --> 00:36:06.000 asylum to Evo Morales, the ousted socialist president 00:36:06.000 --> 00:36:09.840 of Bolivia in 2019. He literally sent a Mexican 00:36:09.840 --> 00:36:12.199 military jet to rescue Morales as his government 00:36:12.199 --> 00:36:15.780 fell. He also caused massive diplomatic friction 00:36:15.780 --> 00:36:18.480 with Spain and the Vatican. He drafted formal 00:36:18.480 --> 00:36:20.579 letters demanding that the king of Spain and 00:36:20.579 --> 00:36:23.420 the pope publicly apologize for the atrocities 00:36:23.420 --> 00:36:26.219 of the colonial conquest 500 years ago. Let me 00:36:26.219 --> 00:36:29.489 guess. The King and the Pope declined. They completely 00:36:29.489 --> 00:36:31.190 ignored it. But again, it wasn't really about 00:36:31.190 --> 00:36:33.750 getting an apology. It was pure domestic political 00:36:33.750 --> 00:36:36.230 theater to rile up indigenous and nationalist 00:36:36.230 --> 00:36:38.150 pride. All right, we have to talk about the communication 00:36:38.150 --> 00:36:41.289 style. The mañaneras. Because this seems entirely 00:36:41.289 --> 00:36:43.789 unique in global politics. The morning press 00:36:43.789 --> 00:36:47.010 conferences. Every single weekday, without fail. 00:36:47.179 --> 00:36:49.900 Starting at 7am sharp. I just can't imagine someone 00:36:49.900 --> 00:36:52.619 like Biden or Obama or McCrone standing at a 00:36:52.619 --> 00:36:54.599 live podium for two to three hours every single 00:36:54.599 --> 00:36:56.719 morning taking completely unscripted questions. 00:36:57.219 --> 00:36:59.139 Well, it wasn't just taking questions. It was 00:36:59.139 --> 00:37:01.880 a daily televised sermon. It was a historical 00:37:01.880 --> 00:37:05.039 lecture. It was a comedy routine. He used it 00:37:05.039 --> 00:37:07.619 to completely dictate the national news cycle. 00:37:07.929 --> 00:37:11.050 By the time most middle -class Mexicans were 00:37:11.050 --> 00:37:13.789 pouring their morning coffee, AMLO had already 00:37:13.789 --> 00:37:16.329 unilaterally decided what the entire country 00:37:16.329 --> 00:37:18.469 was going to argue about that day. But the sources 00:37:18.469 --> 00:37:21.670 show it wasn't just folksy chats. It was a weapon. 00:37:21.769 --> 00:37:24.469 Oh, it was a highly lethal political weapon. 00:37:24.809 --> 00:37:27.909 He used the massive platform to ruthlessly attack 00:37:27.909 --> 00:37:30.989 his critics by name. If a journalist wrote a 00:37:30.989 --> 00:37:33.050 critical investigative article, he would project 00:37:33.050 --> 00:37:35.530 their face on a giant screen behind him and call 00:37:35.530 --> 00:37:38.130 them conservative mercenaries or corrupt thugs. 00:37:38.289 --> 00:37:40.269 There was an incredibly dark moment with the 00:37:40.269 --> 00:37:42.289 New York Times reporter in her notes. Did Natalie 00:37:42.289 --> 00:37:44.690 Kitcheroff. Yes. The Times was preparing a story 00:37:44.690 --> 00:37:47.469 about alleged cartel ties to his allies. He didn't 00:37:47.469 --> 00:37:49.710 just criticize the journalism. He stood at the 00:37:49.710 --> 00:37:51.480 presidential podium on national television. television 00:37:51.480 --> 00:37:53.880 and read her personal private cell phone number 00:37:53.880 --> 00:37:57.460 out loud to millions of viewers. In Mexico, which 00:37:57.460 --> 00:37:59.460 is statistically one of the deadliest countries 00:37:59.460 --> 00:38:02.179 in the entire world for journalists. Exactly. 00:38:02.260 --> 00:38:05.079 It resulted in massive harassment. And the craziest 00:38:05.079 --> 00:38:07.539 part was when Univision later asked him directly, 00:38:07.639 --> 00:38:10.780 hey, isn't doxing a reporter a blatant violation 00:38:10.780 --> 00:38:13.980 of Mexico's strict data protection laws? He looked 00:38:13.980 --> 00:38:16.460 right at the camera and said, my moral authority 00:38:16.460 --> 00:38:18.340 as the leader of this transformation is above 00:38:18.340 --> 00:38:21.590 any law. Wow. I mean, that is the absolute textbook 00:38:21.590 --> 00:38:25.030 definition of populism. The idea that I uniquely 00:38:25.030 --> 00:38:27.769 embody the pure will of the people, therefore 00:38:27.769 --> 00:38:30.630 institutional rules and laws simply do not apply 00:38:30.630 --> 00:38:34.090 to me. Perfectly stated. And this absolute refusal 00:38:34.090 --> 00:38:36.570 to accept criticism brings us to his most glaring 00:38:36.570 --> 00:38:39.909 domestic conflict. the feminists. For a supposedly 00:38:39.909 --> 00:38:42.309 progressive leftist leader, he had a massive 00:38:42.309 --> 00:38:44.869 blind spot when it came to women. A huge blind 00:38:44.869 --> 00:38:47.250 spot. Femicides, the targeted murder of women, 00:38:47.349 --> 00:38:49.250 were rising dramatically. Women were furious. 00:38:49.329 --> 00:38:51.030 They were organizing massive street protests. 00:38:51.710 --> 00:38:53.929 And Amalo basically just dismissed them. He more 00:38:53.929 --> 00:38:55.730 than dismissed them. He actively invalidated 00:38:55.730 --> 00:38:58.349 their anger. He publicly claimed that the entire 00:38:58.349 --> 00:39:00.789 feminist movement was just a cynical plot funded 00:39:00.789 --> 00:39:03.070 by his conservative enemies to destabilize his 00:39:03.070 --> 00:39:05.610 presidency. It's like his ego couldn't fathom 00:39:05.610 --> 00:39:08.739 a legitimate grassroots grievance that wasn't 00:39:08.739 --> 00:39:11.460 secretly just about him. Exactly. When women 00:39:11.460 --> 00:39:14.400 organized the historic A Day Without Us protest 00:39:14.400 --> 00:39:17.219 in March 2020, where millions of women just vanished 00:39:17.219 --> 00:39:19.480 from public life, schools, and workplaces for 00:39:19.480 --> 00:39:22.360 a day to protest gender violence, he saw it as 00:39:22.360 --> 00:39:25.059 a direct political attack. In response to the 00:39:25.059 --> 00:39:28.000 marches, he erected these massive, imposing metal 00:39:28.000 --> 00:39:30.400 barricades entirely surrounding the National 00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:33.400 Palace. But the feminists were brilliant. They 00:39:33.400 --> 00:39:35.980 turned those ugly metal walls into a sprawling 00:39:35.980 --> 00:39:38.360 memorial, painting the names of thousands of 00:39:38.360 --> 00:39:40.980 murder victims across the stele. It was a visually 00:39:40.980 --> 00:39:43.800 powerful symbol of his complete disconnect from 00:39:43.800 --> 00:39:45.960 the women of his country. And speaking of 2020, 00:39:46.079 --> 00:39:48.860 we have to touch on COVID -19. How did the populist 00:39:48.860 --> 00:39:51.500 man of the people handle the plague? Honestly, 00:39:51.760 --> 00:39:54.559 quite terribly at first. He severely downplayed 00:39:54.559 --> 00:39:56.500 the virus. In the early weeks when the world 00:39:56.500 --> 00:39:58.780 was locking down, he famously held up these little 00:39:58.780 --> 00:40:00.860 religious amulets during a press conference there 00:40:00.860 --> 00:40:03.219 called the Tontes and he smiled and said, this 00:40:03.219 --> 00:40:05.619 is my shield against the virus. He kept traveling, 00:40:05.820 --> 00:40:07.900 he kept hugging and kissing supporters and crowds. 00:40:08.019 --> 00:40:10.539 He refused to wear a mask too, right? He almost 00:40:10.539 --> 00:40:13.239 never wore one. He explicitly said he wanted 00:40:13.239 --> 00:40:15.820 to project strength and calm to the population. 00:40:16.300 --> 00:40:19.489 The actual result was tragic. Because of a drastically 00:40:19.489 --> 00:40:21.769 underfunded health system and mixed messaging, 00:40:22.329 --> 00:40:24.449 Mexico suffered one of the highest excess death 00:40:24.449 --> 00:40:27.010 rates per capita in the entire world. However, 00:40:27.150 --> 00:40:29.630 to give credit where the sources demand it, later 00:40:29.630 --> 00:40:31.949 in the pandemic his government actually pivoted. 00:40:32.190 --> 00:40:35.110 His foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard was incredibly 00:40:35.110 --> 00:40:37.389 effective at aggressively sourcing vaccines. 00:40:38.010 --> 00:40:40.389 They played geopolitics brilliantly, getting 00:40:40.389 --> 00:40:42.769 massive shipments of shots from the U .S., China, 00:40:42.929 --> 00:40:45.750 Russia, and even Cuba to roll out a very solid 00:40:45.750 --> 00:40:47.949 national vaccination campaign. OK, so we reach 00:40:47.949 --> 00:40:50.889 2024, the end of the constitutional single six 00:40:50.889 --> 00:40:53.670 year term. He successfully passes the presidential 00:40:53.670 --> 00:40:56.449 baton to his handpicked successor from Morena, 00:40:56.650 --> 00:40:58.829 Claudia Scheinbaum, and he promises to retire 00:40:58.829 --> 00:41:01.380 to his ranch in Palenque. A jungle ranch famously 00:41:01.380 --> 00:41:03.820 named Lachingada. Right. OK, we need to translate 00:41:03.820 --> 00:41:05.920 that for the listeners because Lachingada does 00:41:05.920 --> 00:41:09.099 not mean the happy place. No, it doesn't. Lachingada 00:41:09.099 --> 00:41:13.219 is a very, very flexible and heavily loaded Mexican 00:41:13.219 --> 00:41:16.199 curse word. It fundamentally refers to a state 00:41:16.199 --> 00:41:19.519 of ruin or violation. In common slang, to tell 00:41:19.519 --> 00:41:22.159 someone to go to Lachingada basically translates 00:41:22.159 --> 00:41:26.159 to go to hell or go for yourself. So the president 00:41:26.159 --> 00:41:28.760 of Mexico literally retired to a ranch called 00:41:28.760 --> 00:41:31.130 the Effing Hell. I mean, that is a hilarious 00:41:31.130 --> 00:41:33.550 power move. He's saying, I'm done with you all. 00:41:33.610 --> 00:41:35.889 I'm going to Lachengada. Goodbye. It perfectly 00:41:35.889 --> 00:41:38.590 fits his deeply sarcastic and defiant sense of 00:41:38.590 --> 00:41:41.070 humor. He promised the country he would retire 00:41:41.070 --> 00:41:43.210 completely from public life. He said he would 00:41:43.210 --> 00:41:45.070 delete his social media and not accept phone 00:41:45.070 --> 00:41:47.510 calls from politicians and just sit on a hammock 00:41:47.510 --> 00:41:50.320 and write historical books. Do we actually believe 00:41:50.320 --> 00:41:52.539 him? Not for a single second. President Scheinbaum 00:41:52.539 --> 00:41:55.119 has already visited him. His sons are incredibly 00:41:55.119 --> 00:41:57.840 active and powerful within the Marina Party machinery. 00:41:58.380 --> 00:42:00.780 His political shadow is still completely dominating 00:42:00.780 --> 00:42:02.860 the National Palace. So as we wrap up, let's 00:42:02.860 --> 00:42:05.599 try to summarize this absolutely massive historical 00:42:05.599 --> 00:42:08.179 figure based on the deep dive. We started with 00:42:08.179 --> 00:42:10.980 the paradox, the 80 percent final approval rating 00:42:10.980 --> 00:42:14.519 versus the very real democratic backsliding and 00:42:14.519 --> 00:42:17.449 institutional decay. The undeniable legacy of 00:42:17.449 --> 00:42:19.949 Amlow is that he successfully destroyed the old 00:42:19.949 --> 00:42:23.690 regime. The old duopoly of the PRI and the pan 00:42:23.690 --> 00:42:26.110 are essentially dead walking. They are husks. 00:42:26.510 --> 00:42:29.210 He built Marina into the new absolute political 00:42:29.210 --> 00:42:32.429 hegemon. He fundamentally recreated a single 00:42:32.429 --> 00:42:34.809 party dominant system, very much like the old 00:42:34.809 --> 00:42:37.510 PRI of the 1970s, but entirely under his own 00:42:37.510 --> 00:42:40.250 personal banner. So was the Fourth Transformation 00:42:40.250 --> 00:42:43.130 a true revolution of the state or just a rotation 00:42:43.130 --> 00:42:45.769 of who gets to hold the power? He certainly rocketed 00:42:45.769 --> 00:42:48.670 the elites. He expelled the Ivy League technocrats 00:42:48.670 --> 00:42:50.949 and brought in a completely new class of loyalist 00:42:50.949 --> 00:42:53.530 politicians. And he irreversibly changed the 00:42:53.530 --> 00:42:55.989 national conversation. The poor and the marginalized 00:42:55.989 --> 00:42:57.750 are now permanently central to the political 00:42:57.750 --> 00:43:00.429 narrative. No future politician can ignore them 00:43:00.429 --> 00:43:02.989 and win. That is real. But did he fix the structural 00:43:02.989 --> 00:43:05.630 rotting of the state? The violence is still terrifyingly 00:43:05.630 --> 00:43:07.969 high. The public health system is broken. The 00:43:07.969 --> 00:43:10.389 educational system is lagging behind global peers. 00:43:11.090 --> 00:43:13.389 So the transformation was ultimately a masterful 00:43:13.389 --> 00:43:15.860 political conco... conquest, but not necessarily 00:43:15.860 --> 00:43:19.159 an administrative success. Exactly. He conquered 00:43:19.159 --> 00:43:21.699 power brilliantly. He sustained it brilliantly. 00:43:22.099 --> 00:43:25.119 But he didn't necessarily solve the agonizing 00:43:25.119 --> 00:43:27.980 daily realities of the Mexican state. Well, here 00:43:27.980 --> 00:43:30.179 is the final provocative thought for you listening. 00:43:31.219 --> 00:43:34.059 AMLO's central overriding thesis for six years 00:43:34.059 --> 00:43:37.480 was that if the leader is personally honest and 00:43:37.480 --> 00:43:39.940 deeply loves the people, then everything else 00:43:39.940 --> 00:43:42.550 just magically solves itself. Corruption ends 00:43:42.550 --> 00:43:44.809 naturally. Violence ends naturally. Right. The 00:43:44.809 --> 00:43:46.889 pure moral force of the leader is enough to fix 00:43:46.889 --> 00:43:49.730 a broken nation. But looking at the massive dot 00:43:49.730 --> 00:43:52.130 account, looking at the unprecedented empowerment 00:43:52.130 --> 00:43:54.750 of the military, our ultimate question to you 00:43:54.750 --> 00:43:57.969 to mull over is this. Is a democracy fundamentally 00:43:57.969 --> 00:44:00.590 just about majority voting and immense personal 00:44:00.590 --> 00:44:02.789 popularity? Or is it actually about the boring 00:44:02.789 --> 00:44:05.369 stuff? the rigid institutions, the impartial 00:44:05.369 --> 00:44:07.690 rules, and the annoying checks and balances that 00:44:07.690 --> 00:44:10.150 constrain power. AMLO proved beyond a shadow 00:44:10.150 --> 00:44:12.369 of a doubt that you can achieve historic popularity 00:44:12.369 --> 00:44:14.929 while dismantling those institutions. The really 00:44:14.929 --> 00:44:17.429 scary question is can Mexico survive that formula 00:44:17.429 --> 00:44:20.050 in the long run? And that is the massive historical 00:44:20.050 --> 00:44:22.210 cliffhanger we are left with as the Scheinbaum 00:44:22.210 --> 00:44:25.170 era begins. Thanks for diving deep with us today. 00:44:25.510 --> 00:44:26.190 We'll see you on the next one.