WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.879 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today we are putting 00:00:02.879 --> 00:00:06.120 aside the box scores, the buzzer beaters, and 00:00:06.120 --> 00:00:08.380 really looking at the machinery behind the curtain. 00:00:08.640 --> 00:00:11.439 We're talking about an event that is, I would 00:00:11.439 --> 00:00:13.939 argue, more stressful, definitely more strategic, 00:00:14.119 --> 00:00:17.500 and way more mathematical than a Game 7. It's 00:00:17.500 --> 00:00:19.679 the one night of the year where hope is, like, 00:00:19.699 --> 00:00:22.579 actually quantified. Exactly. We're talking about 00:00:22.579 --> 00:00:25.039 the NBA draft. And look, if you're a casual fan, 00:00:25.160 --> 00:00:26.859 you might think, OK, it's just a list of names 00:00:26.859 --> 00:00:29.339 being read out. But we've got a stack of research 00:00:29.339 --> 00:00:31.980 here that suggests this is this is the single 00:00:31.980 --> 00:00:34.479 most high stakes decision making event in modern 00:00:34.479 --> 00:00:36.920 sports. It's high stakes corporate H .R., but, 00:00:36.979 --> 00:00:39.780 you know, televised globally. And the fascinating 00:00:39.780 --> 00:00:42.020 thing about the draft is that it isn't just about 00:00:42.020 --> 00:00:44.320 basketball talent anymore. It's this massive 00:00:44.320 --> 00:00:48.560 collision of. complex eligibility rules, probability 00:00:48.560 --> 00:00:52.759 math, global logistics, and extremely high level 00:00:52.759 --> 00:00:54.799 asset management. And that's the mission for 00:00:54.799 --> 00:00:57.259 today. We want to unpack the mechanics, the history, 00:00:57.340 --> 00:00:59.539 and all those hidden strategies behind the draft. 00:00:59.740 --> 00:01:01.420 We're going to look at how it evolved from what 00:01:01.420 --> 00:01:04.459 was literally an endless selection process to 00:01:04.459 --> 00:01:06.969 the tight two -round show we see today. We'll 00:01:06.969 --> 00:01:09.129 also get into the lottery system, which involves 00:01:09.129 --> 00:01:13.390 way more security and math than most people realize, 00:01:13.670 --> 00:01:16.189 and that massive shift towards globalization. 00:01:16.670 --> 00:01:18.810 Oh, yeah. And we have to talk about the trades, 00:01:18.950 --> 00:01:21.609 because draft picks aren't just for picking players. 00:01:21.730 --> 00:01:23.950 They're currency. But let's start with the basics, 00:01:24.030 --> 00:01:28.650 just to set the scene. Late June, 30 teams. What's 00:01:28.650 --> 00:01:31.349 the actual vibe in those war rooms? The vibe 00:01:31.349 --> 00:01:35.010 is controlled chaos. Since 1989, the format has 00:01:35.010 --> 00:01:37.909 been strictly two rounds. That's 60 players selected 00:01:37.909 --> 00:01:41.469 total. Every team has, in theory, one pick per 00:01:41.469 --> 00:01:43.569 round. In theory is doing a lot of heavy lifting 00:01:43.569 --> 00:01:46.129 there. Huge lifting because trades just mess 00:01:46.129 --> 00:01:48.569 that order up completely. But the constraint 00:01:48.569 --> 00:01:50.730 is the key here. You know, if you look at baseball 00:01:50.730 --> 00:01:53.390 or football, their drafts go on for days, seven 00:01:53.390 --> 00:01:56.030 rounds, sometimes more. The NBA is tight. You 00:01:56.030 --> 00:01:58.650 have 60 slots to secure the future of your franchise. 00:01:58.810 --> 00:02:01.420 And if you get it wrong. You can set your team 00:02:01.420 --> 00:02:03.459 back half a decade. And if you get it right, 00:02:03.560 --> 00:02:05.920 you change history. But here's something I found 00:02:05.920 --> 00:02:07.659 that was interesting in the research. If you 00:02:07.659 --> 00:02:10.379 aren't picked in those two rounds, it might actually 00:02:10.379 --> 00:02:13.280 be better for you. In some ways, yes, it sounds 00:02:13.280 --> 00:02:15.379 counterintuitive, but think about it. If you're 00:02:15.379 --> 00:02:18.080 drafted 60th overall, you are locked into that 00:02:18.080 --> 00:02:20.620 team. You have no say in the matter. But if you 00:02:20.620 --> 00:02:23.500 go undrafted, you become an undrafted free agent. 00:02:23.840 --> 00:02:26.539 Suddenly, you have all the agency. You can shop 00:02:26.539 --> 00:02:29.379 yourself around. Exactly. You can negotiate with 00:02:29.379 --> 00:02:31.520 any team, choose the best fit for your style 00:02:31.520 --> 00:02:34.259 of play, or pick a roster that actually needs 00:02:34.259 --> 00:02:37.400 your specific position. Being the 60th pick locks 00:02:37.400 --> 00:02:40.039 you into a situation that might not work. Being 00:02:40.039 --> 00:02:43.159 undrafted opens up the whole league. We see guys 00:02:43.159 --> 00:02:45.620 like Fred Van Vliet or Austin Reeves who won 00:02:45.620 --> 00:02:48.639 undrafted and ended up with massive careers because 00:02:48.639 --> 00:02:50.500 they found them. the right spot that's a great 00:02:50.500 --> 00:02:53.240 nuance it's better to be wanted by everyone than 00:02:53.240 --> 00:02:55.159 stuck with someone who might not even play you 00:02:55.159 --> 00:02:57.699 but the draft wasn't always this efficient was 00:02:57.699 --> 00:03:00.300 it when i was looking into the history here the 00:03:00.300 --> 00:03:03.699 early drafts sounded well Frankly, exhausting. 00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:05.840 Exhausting is the right word. I mean, if we go 00:03:05.840 --> 00:03:08.800 back to the early days, say 1960 or 1968, the 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:11.159 draft went for 21 rounds. 21 rounds. Who are 00:03:11.159 --> 00:03:12.840 they even picking in round 21? The equipment 00:03:12.840 --> 00:03:14.699 manager. They were just scraping the bottom of 00:03:14.699 --> 00:03:17.120 the barrel. Teams would just keep selecting players 00:03:17.120 --> 00:03:19.479 until they literally ran out of prospects. It 00:03:19.479 --> 00:03:22.699 was a war of attrition. By 1974, they stabilized 00:03:22.699 --> 00:03:26.819 it to 10 rounds and then seven in 1985. But that 00:03:26.819 --> 00:03:30.219 shift to two rounds in 89 was really significant. 00:03:30.860 --> 00:03:33.219 Why cut it so short? Was it just to save time? 00:03:33.520 --> 00:03:35.960 It was actually an agreement with the Players 00:03:35.960 --> 00:03:39.020 Association. They wanted to stop teams from, 00:03:39.080 --> 00:03:41.159 you know, holding a player's rights hostage. 00:03:41.340 --> 00:03:43.979 If you draft a guy in the 10th round, you own 00:03:43.979 --> 00:03:45.879 his NBA rights, but you probably aren't going 00:03:45.879 --> 00:03:48.060 to sign him to the main roster. So he's just 00:03:48.060 --> 00:03:50.139 stuck in limbo. He can't sign with anyone else. 00:03:50.300 --> 00:03:52.550 Right, right. Shortening the draft just freed 00:03:52.550 --> 00:03:54.530 those players up. Exactly. That makes a ton of 00:03:54.530 --> 00:03:57.389 sense. Now, speaking of weird historical rules, 00:03:57.590 --> 00:04:00.030 I found this territorial pick rule fascinating. 00:04:00.210 --> 00:04:01.889 This feels like something from a completely different 00:04:01.889 --> 00:04:04.680 universe. Oh, it absolutely is. This was in effect 00:04:04.680 --> 00:04:08.979 from 1956 to 1965. You have to remember, the 00:04:08.979 --> 00:04:11.599 NBA wasn't a global juggernaut back then. They 00:04:11.599 --> 00:04:13.960 were struggling to sell tickets in local markets. 00:04:14.340 --> 00:04:17.019 So the league allowed a team to forfeit its first 00:04:17.019 --> 00:04:18.980 round pick to select a player from their immediate 00:04:18.980 --> 00:04:21.879 local area, usually within a 50 mile radius. 00:04:21.939 --> 00:04:25.060 So purely a marketing play. 100 percent. The 00:04:25.060 --> 00:04:28.839 logic was. If you draft the local college star, 00:04:29.000 --> 00:04:31.420 the local fans will buy tickets to see him play 00:04:31.420 --> 00:04:33.800 pro. It bypassed the draft order completely. 00:04:34.040 --> 00:04:35.759 So if the best player in the country just happened 00:04:35.759 --> 00:04:37.459 to go to college in Philadelphia, the Philadelphia 00:04:37.459 --> 00:04:39.699 Warriors just got him. That's it. That's how 00:04:39.699 --> 00:04:41.779 they got Wilt Chamberlain. He was a territorial 00:04:41.779 --> 00:04:45.019 pick. Wow. Imagine if that existed today. It 00:04:45.019 --> 00:04:47.079 would completely break the competitive balance. 00:04:47.199 --> 00:04:49.160 It would be like the Lakers getting first dibs 00:04:49.160 --> 00:04:51.579 on every UCLA start just because of geography. 00:04:51.839 --> 00:04:54.100 It sounds completely insane by modern standards. 00:04:54.319 --> 00:04:57.300 It was. They got rid of it in 1966 and introduced 00:04:57.300 --> 00:05:00.379 the coin flip for the top pick, which is that's 00:05:00.379 --> 00:05:02.120 generally considered the start of the modern 00:05:02.120 --> 00:05:04.540 draft era where competitive balance finally took 00:05:04.540 --> 00:05:07.120 priority. Okay, let's fast forward a bit to who 00:05:07.120 --> 00:05:09.300 was actually getting picks. Because for a long 00:05:09.300 --> 00:05:11.860 time, this was a college man's game. You did 00:05:11.860 --> 00:05:14.339 your four years, got your degree, then got drafted. 00:05:14.480 --> 00:05:17.079 Correct. That was the standard path. But then 00:05:17.079 --> 00:05:19.699 we hit the mid -90s. And the high school era 00:05:19.699 --> 00:05:24.319 begins from about 95 to 2005. You saw this explosion 00:05:24.319 --> 00:05:26.519 of superstars coming straight from their high 00:05:26.519 --> 00:05:30.459 school prom to the NBA. Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, 00:05:30.639 --> 00:05:33.060 LeBron James, Dwight Howard. And these weren't 00:05:33.060 --> 00:05:34.839 just roster fillers. These were league defining 00:05:34.839 --> 00:05:37.899 talent. They were. But for every Kobe, there 00:05:37.899 --> 00:05:39.959 were three or four guys who jumped too early 00:05:39.959 --> 00:05:42.449 and. you know, washed out. The league got worried 00:05:42.449 --> 00:05:45.389 about the optics, the maturity levels. It's expensive 00:05:45.389 --> 00:05:47.470 to draft a kid who isn't ready for the lifestyle 00:05:47.470 --> 00:05:50.589 or the physicality. So in 2006, the door just 00:05:50.589 --> 00:05:53.410 slammed shut. The league changed the eligibility 00:05:53.410 --> 00:05:56.290 rules, creating what we now know as the one and 00:05:56.290 --> 00:05:58.329 done phenomenon. Can you break down the actual 00:05:58.329 --> 00:06:00.089 rule there? Because I feel like one and done 00:06:00.089 --> 00:06:02.009 gets thrown around a lot. But what does the regulation 00:06:02.009 --> 00:06:05.339 actually say? Sure. The rule states a player 00:06:05.339 --> 00:06:08.639 must be at least 19 years old and one year removed 00:06:08.639 --> 00:06:12.000 from their high school graduation class. It doesn't 00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:14.360 explicitly say you must go to college. Right. 00:06:14.420 --> 00:06:16.600 So you could go play in Europe or join the G 00:06:16.600 --> 00:06:18.660 League Ignite or I guess just sit on your couch 00:06:18.660 --> 00:06:22.500 for a year. Technically, yes, though most chose 00:06:22.500 --> 00:06:25.920 college because of the exposure. But it created 00:06:25.920 --> 00:06:29.250 this dynamic of. Early entrance underclassmen 00:06:29.250 --> 00:06:32.209 declaring for the draft and giving up their remaining 00:06:32.209 --> 00:06:35.110 college eligibility. It turned college basketball 00:06:35.110 --> 00:06:38.009 into a pit stop. Although the rules have softened 00:06:38.009 --> 00:06:39.769 a bit there recently, haven't they? It used to 00:06:39.769 --> 00:06:41.990 be a one -way street. Once you declared, that 00:06:41.990 --> 00:06:46.019 was it. It did change. Since 2016, players can 00:06:46.019 --> 00:06:48.860 declare, go to the combine, get that feedback 00:06:48.860 --> 00:06:50.680 from scouts, and if they don't like what they 00:06:50.680 --> 00:06:53.100 hear, say they're projected for the second round 00:06:53.100 --> 00:06:55.160 instead of the lottery, they can withdraw and 00:06:55.160 --> 00:06:57.139 go back to school. Which seems so much healthier 00:06:57.139 --> 00:06:59.060 for the players. It's like getting a job offer 00:06:59.060 --> 00:07:01.100 before quitting your current job. Absolutely. 00:07:01.360 --> 00:07:03.600 It removes the guesswork and saves kids from 00:07:03.600 --> 00:07:06.079 making a catastrophic career error based on some 00:07:06.079 --> 00:07:09.300 bad advice. Okay, I want to pivot to the part 00:07:09.300 --> 00:07:11.819 of the draft that drives fans the most crazy. 00:07:11.949 --> 00:07:13.829 but it's also the most unique thing about the 00:07:13.829 --> 00:07:17.589 NBA, the lottery. The ping pong balls. Yes. Why 00:07:17.589 --> 00:07:20.410 do we do this? In the NFL, if you're the worst 00:07:20.410 --> 00:07:24.269 team, you pick first. Simple. Why does the NBA 00:07:24.269 --> 00:07:28.250 have to make it a game show? One word, tanking. 00:07:28.290 --> 00:07:32.129 Losing on purpose. Exactly. In the NBA, one single 00:07:32.129 --> 00:07:34.970 player can change a franchise more than in any 00:07:34.970 --> 00:07:37.279 other sport. You know, in football you have 53 00:07:37.279 --> 00:07:39.879 guys. In basketball you have five on the court. 00:07:40.079 --> 00:07:43.459 One superstar is worth everything. So before 00:07:43.459 --> 00:07:46.620 1985, teams were accused of intentionally losing 00:07:46.620 --> 00:07:49.079 games to get into that coin flip for the top 00:07:49.079 --> 00:07:51.899 pick. The NBA introduced the lottery to inject 00:07:51.899 --> 00:07:54.339 randomness and discourage that behavior. Walk 00:07:54.339 --> 00:07:55.959 us through the mechanics because I think people 00:07:55.959 --> 00:07:58.220 visualize a guy just pulling a team logo out 00:07:58.220 --> 00:08:00.600 of a hat. But there's some serious math happening 00:08:00.600 --> 00:08:02.420 in the back room somewhere. Oh, it's incredibly 00:08:02.420 --> 00:08:04.759 secure. It happens in a separate room, usually 00:08:04.759 --> 00:08:06.800 with representatives from Ernst & Young or a 00:08:06.800 --> 00:08:09.879 similar firm. No cell phones allowed. They confiscate 00:08:09.879 --> 00:08:11.800 them at the door until the broadcast reveal is 00:08:11.800 --> 00:08:15.259 over. It's treated like a state secret. Mechanically, 00:08:15.319 --> 00:08:18.240 they use a standard lottery machine with 14 ping 00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:21.079 pong balls numbered 1 through 14. They mix them 00:08:21.079 --> 00:08:23.420 up and draw four balls. The order they come out 00:08:23.420 --> 00:08:25.779 doesn't matter. OK, so like 1, 4, 9, 12. Right. 00:08:25.860 --> 00:08:39.500 And mathematically, there are exactly one. So 00:08:39.500 --> 00:08:42.120 if you're the worst team, you just get more of 00:08:42.120 --> 00:08:43.919 those combinations assigned to you. Precisely. 00:08:43.919 --> 00:08:45.720 If your combination gets pulled, you get the 00:08:45.720 --> 00:08:48.740 pick. But, and here is where it gets really interesting, 00:08:49.000 --> 00:08:51.580 they changed the odds significantly in 2019. 00:08:51.860 --> 00:08:54.100 This was the flattening of the odds. Why the 00:08:54.100 --> 00:08:56.740 change? Was the old system broken? The league 00:08:56.740 --> 00:08:59.720 felt it was rewarding failure too much. Before 00:08:59.720 --> 00:09:03.379 2019, the absolute worst team had 250 combinations. 00:09:04.080 --> 00:09:06.700 That's a 25 % chance at the number one pick. 00:09:06.840 --> 00:09:08.159 Pretty good odds if you're trying to rebuild. 00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:11.379 Too good. It encouraged that race to the bottom. 00:09:11.639 --> 00:09:14.299 You had teams actively stripping their rosters 00:09:14.299 --> 00:09:17.659 to be the worst. It made the regular season unwatchable 00:09:17.659 --> 00:09:22.259 for those teams. So post -2019, the NBA flattened 00:09:22.259 --> 00:09:25.419 the curve. Now, the three worst teams all have 00:09:25.419 --> 00:09:28.820 an equal number of combinations, 140 each. That's 00:09:28.820 --> 00:09:31.899 a 14 % chance. So being the absolute worst team 00:09:31.899 --> 00:09:34.159 doesn't give you a mathematical advantage over 00:09:34.159 --> 00:09:36.539 the second or third worst team anymore. Exactly. 00:09:36.679 --> 00:09:38.639 It leveled the playing field at the bottom. You 00:09:38.639 --> 00:09:41.179 can still be bad, but being historically bad 00:09:41.179 --> 00:09:43.519 no longer guarantees you the best asset. That 00:09:43.519 --> 00:09:46.769 is such a crucial distinction. It turns the lottery 00:09:46.769 --> 00:09:49.149 into a risk management problem for GMs. Yeah. 00:09:49.250 --> 00:09:51.490 You can tank, but the payout isn't guaranteed. 00:09:51.509 --> 00:09:53.309 You could lose 70 games and still pick fifth. 00:09:53.429 --> 00:09:55.730 Right. And that uncertainty is exactly what the 00:09:55.730 --> 00:09:57.830 league wanted. I want to shift gears to what 00:09:57.830 --> 00:09:59.809 I think is the most visible change in the last 00:09:59.809 --> 00:10:02.649 two decades. Globalization. Because when you 00:10:02.649 --> 00:10:06.409 watch old drafts, it was just so American. Very. 00:10:06.529 --> 00:10:08.450 And when international players were picked early 00:10:08.450 --> 00:10:10.269 on, they were usually guys who had come to the 00:10:10.269 --> 00:10:12.490 U .S. for college anyway. Think about Hakeem 00:10:12.490 --> 00:10:14.370 Olajuwon. He's Nigerian, but he played at the 00:10:14.370 --> 00:10:16.549 University of Houston. Right. Or Michael Thompson 00:10:16.549 --> 00:10:18.690 from the Bahamas. He played at Minnesota. Exactly. 00:10:18.970 --> 00:10:21.669 The scouts were still just going to NCAA games. 00:10:21.750 --> 00:10:24.409 They weren't flying to Lagos or Nassau. The pipeline 00:10:24.409 --> 00:10:27.269 was still the American college system. If you 00:10:27.269 --> 00:10:30.240 weren't in that system, you were invisible. So 00:10:30.240 --> 00:10:32.440 when was the watershed moment? When did the dam 00:10:32.440 --> 00:10:35.259 break for international players who didn't go 00:10:35.259 --> 00:10:38.539 to U .S. colleges? 2002. Yao Ming. The Great 00:10:38.539 --> 00:10:41.259 Wall. He was the first international player without 00:10:41.259 --> 00:10:43.879 any U .S. college experience to be selected number 00:10:43.879 --> 00:10:48.100 one overall. And the impact was seismic. Culturally, 00:10:48.240 --> 00:10:50.080 it was huge. There's a quote from Time magazine 00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:53.120 back then that said, Yao transformed his countrymen 00:10:53.120 --> 00:10:56.480 into mighty men who can jam with the very best. 00:10:56.759 --> 00:10:58.539 And practically, the ratings in China must have 00:10:58.539 --> 00:11:00.519 just gone through the roof. Skyrocketed. And 00:11:00.519 --> 00:11:03.679 looking at the data, the 2002 draft had 17 international 00:11:03.679 --> 00:11:06.840 players selected. It really opened the floodgates. 00:11:06.919 --> 00:11:09.840 It forced NBA front on. to expand their scouting 00:11:09.840 --> 00:11:11.320 departments globally. You couldn't just have 00:11:11.320 --> 00:11:13.799 a guy covering the ACC in the Big Ten anymore. 00:11:14.080 --> 00:11:16.519 You needed a guy in Spain, a guy in the Balkans, 00:11:16.580 --> 00:11:19.360 a guy in Asia. And if we look at the modern era, 00:11:19.580 --> 00:11:21.759 it's almost becoming the norm to have an international 00:11:21.759 --> 00:11:24.539 number one. It is. You had Andrea Bernani from 00:11:24.539 --> 00:11:27.320 Italy in 2006. Then later you get Ben Simmons 00:11:27.320 --> 00:11:30.100 from Australia in 2016, DeAndre Ayton from the 00:11:30.100 --> 00:11:32.700 Bahamas in 2018. Recently, it's been the French 00:11:32.700 --> 00:11:35.779 Revolution. Truly. Victor M. Manyama going number 00:11:35.779 --> 00:11:38.559 one in 2023 was huge. I mean, he's a generational 00:11:38.559 --> 00:11:41.149 talent. maybe the best prospect since LeBron. 00:11:41.450 --> 00:11:44.110 But then in 2024, you have Zachary Resicher, 00:11:44.330 --> 00:11:46.570 another French player going number one. So that 00:11:46.570 --> 00:11:49.049 trend is accelerating. It is. We've gone from 00:11:49.049 --> 00:11:52.169 can their game translate to the NBA to realizing 00:11:52.169 --> 00:11:54.230 that the international development systems, these 00:11:54.230 --> 00:11:56.429 professional academies in Europe, are producing 00:11:56.429 --> 00:11:58.549 some of the most polished prospects in the world. 00:11:58.690 --> 00:12:01.029 They're playing Pro Bowl at 16, whereas American 00:12:01.029 --> 00:12:04.129 kids are playing AAU circuits. That's a fascinating 00:12:04.129 --> 00:12:07.230 divergence in training philosophy. One is learning 00:12:07.230 --> 00:12:09.980 to win games against men. The other is showcasing 00:12:09.980 --> 00:12:13.320 skills for Instagram highlights. And GMs are 00:12:13.320 --> 00:12:15.940 noticing who is more ready to play on day one. 00:12:16.159 --> 00:12:18.519 Now, we can't talk about the draft without talking 00:12:18.519 --> 00:12:21.059 about the currency of the draft. Because half 00:12:21.059 --> 00:12:23.840 the time, the excitement isn't about who gets 00:12:23.840 --> 00:12:26.480 picked. It's about the trades. This is the asset 00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:28.980 management side of things. A draft pick is a 00:12:28.980 --> 00:12:31.500 tradable asset for up to seven years into the 00:12:31.500 --> 00:12:34.039 future. It's like a futures contract in finance. 00:12:34.200 --> 00:12:36.919 You're trading pure potential. But not all picks 00:12:36.919 --> 00:12:39.629 are created equal. Right. You hear these terms 00:12:39.629 --> 00:12:43.350 thrown around protected versus unprotected. For 00:12:43.350 --> 00:12:44.789 the listener who might hear this on the news, 00:12:44.889 --> 00:12:47.470 what's the practical difference? Unprotected 00:12:47.470 --> 00:12:49.929 is the gold standard. It is the most dangerous 00:12:49.929 --> 00:12:53.590 asset to trade away. If I trade you my 2028 first 00:12:53.590 --> 00:12:56.509 round pick unprotected, that means you get that 00:12:56.509 --> 00:12:59.230 pick no matter what. If my team completely collapses, 00:12:59.289 --> 00:13:02.070 if all my stars get injured and that pick becomes 00:13:02.070 --> 00:13:04.570 the number one overall pick, it's yours. Ouch. 00:13:04.649 --> 00:13:07.190 That is high risk. You could be handing a championship 00:13:07.190 --> 00:13:09.669 contender the next superstar. It's extremely 00:13:09.669 --> 00:13:12.149 valuable for the receiver and terrifying for 00:13:12.149 --> 00:13:14.129 the giver. That's why you see protected picks 00:13:14.129 --> 00:13:16.950 so often. That's where a team says, I'll trade 00:13:16.950 --> 00:13:18.929 you this pick, but if it lands in the top five, 00:13:19.029 --> 00:13:20.889 I keep it and I'll give you something else later. 00:13:21.309 --> 00:13:23.350 It's a safety net. It is. It protects against 00:13:23.350 --> 00:13:25.529 the doomsday scenario. And then there's the pick 00:13:25.529 --> 00:13:27.840 swap. Which just feels like a total power move. 00:13:28.019 --> 00:13:31.220 It is. A pick swap gives a team the right to 00:13:31.220 --> 00:13:34.200 trade places in the draft order if the other 00:13:34.200 --> 00:13:36.559 team's pick ends up being better. You aren't 00:13:36.559 --> 00:13:38.000 getting an extra pick. You're just upgrading 00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:41.220 yours at their expense. It's pure leverage. Now, 00:13:41.259 --> 00:13:43.740 is there anything? It was so bad that the NBA 00:13:43.740 --> 00:13:46.600 created a rule stating that a team cannot be 00:13:46.600 --> 00:13:49.019 without a first round pick in consecutive future 00:13:49.019 --> 00:13:53.019 drafts. You can't trade your 2026 and your 2027 00:13:53.019 --> 00:13:55.649 first rounders. You have to keep one. So it's 00:13:55.649 --> 00:13:57.870 a mechanism to save teams from their own bad 00:13:57.870 --> 00:13:59.850 management. That's all it is. It's a guardrail 00:13:59.850 --> 00:14:02.789 against desperation. The league needs stable 00:14:02.789 --> 00:14:05.490 franchises. They can't afford teams becoming 00:14:05.490 --> 00:14:08.370 barren wastelands for a decade because one owner 00:14:08.370 --> 00:14:11.330 got impatient. I love that. Okay, before we wrap 00:14:11.330 --> 00:14:13.490 up, we have to talk about the actual output of 00:14:13.490 --> 00:14:15.850 this whole machine, the players. When we look 00:14:15.850 --> 00:14:17.950 back at history, are there draft classes that 00:14:17.950 --> 00:14:20.029 stand out as the gold standard? Oh, absolutely. 00:14:20.190 --> 00:14:22.730 There is a holy trinity of draft classes. 1984 00:14:22.730 --> 00:14:25.490 is legendary Hakeem Olajuwon, Michael Jordan, 00:14:25.590 --> 00:14:27.289 Charles Barkley, John Stockton. I mean, that's 00:14:27.289 --> 00:14:29.169 the Mount Rushmore of the 90s right there in 00:14:29.169 --> 00:14:31.210 one single night. Hard to beat Jordan and Hakeem 00:14:31.210 --> 00:14:33.950 in the same year. Then you have 1996, Kobe Bryant, 00:14:34.190 --> 00:14:36.690 Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Ray Allen, and then 00:14:36.690 --> 00:14:39.570 2003, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh. 00:14:39.720 --> 00:14:42.120 Carmelo Anthony. Those years basically defined 00:14:42.120 --> 00:14:44.320 the league for the decades that followed. If 00:14:44.320 --> 00:14:46.320 you had a pick in those years, it was hard to 00:14:46.320 --> 00:14:49.399 miss. They did. And on the flip side, you have 00:14:49.399 --> 00:14:52.980 the cautionary tales. Like the year 2000. Dark 00:14:52.980 --> 00:14:55.799 year. Sports Illustrated called the first round 00:14:55.799 --> 00:14:58.500 of the 2000 draft a horrible group of players. 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:01.679 It's widely regarded as the worst class in history. 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:04.720 Kenyon Martin went number one, and while he had 00:15:04.720 --> 00:15:08.080 a decent career, the depth just... It wasn't 00:15:08.080 --> 00:15:10.419 there. You look at that list and it's a lot of 00:15:10.419 --> 00:15:12.360 role players and busts. It just goes to show 00:15:12.360 --> 00:15:14.740 the variance. Sometimes the talent just isn't 00:15:14.740 --> 00:15:17.279 there. And speaking of variance. Yeah. Sometimes 00:15:17.279 --> 00:15:19.340 you just get weird anomalies. I have to bring 00:15:19.340 --> 00:15:21.320 up the Manute Bowl story because it's just bizarre. 00:15:21.539 --> 00:15:23.720 It is one of my favorites. So Manute Bowl, who 00:15:23.720 --> 00:15:25.980 we know as one of the tallest players ever at 00:15:25.980 --> 00:15:29.850 7 '7", was actually drafted in 1983. in the fifth 00:15:29.850 --> 00:15:33.429 round but the nba deemed him ineligible there 00:15:33.429 --> 00:15:35.830 were issues with his passport and his age nobody 00:15:35.830 --> 00:15:37.850 was quite sure how old he was or if the paperwork 00:15:37.850 --> 00:15:40.590 was valid so the pick was voided he had to go 00:15:40.590 --> 00:15:42.710 play college ball at a division two school which 00:15:42.710 --> 00:15:45.049 is already a funny visual then two years later 00:15:45.049 --> 00:15:48.429 in 1985 he gets drafted again this time in the 00:15:48.429 --> 00:15:50.750 second round so he's the rare guy who was drafted 00:15:50.750 --> 00:15:54.899 twice drafted twice and despite his size He holds 00:15:54.899 --> 00:15:57.120 the record for being the tallest player to hit 00:15:57.120 --> 00:15:59.480 a three -pointer. He was a unicorn before we 00:15:59.480 --> 00:16:02.480 use the term unicorn. That is fantastic. It really 00:16:02.480 --> 00:16:05.039 highlights how much of this is an inexact science. 00:16:05.399 --> 00:16:07.740 You have all this data, all these scouts, the 00:16:07.740 --> 00:16:10.519 Ernst & Young accountants, and you still end 00:16:10.519 --> 00:16:12.779 up drafting a guy twice because of passport issues. 00:16:13.019 --> 00:16:15.600 It keeps it interesting. So let's zoom out. We've 00:16:15.600 --> 00:16:18.039 got the lottery math, the global takeover, the 00:16:18.039 --> 00:16:20.559 trading strategy, the history. What does this 00:16:20.559 --> 00:16:22.379 all mean for someone watching the draft this 00:16:22.379 --> 00:16:24.980 June? It means you're watching a massive optimization 00:16:24.980 --> 00:16:27.879 problem playing out in real time. You have 30 00:16:27.879 --> 00:16:30.240 teams trying to balance immediate needs with 00:16:30.240 --> 00:16:33.059 long term potential, navigating a global talent 00:16:33.059 --> 00:16:35.679 tool, all while constrained by a salary cap and 00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:38.399 strict rules. It's messy, but it's where teams 00:16:38.399 --> 00:16:40.500 are built. And as we've seen with the lottery 00:16:40.500 --> 00:16:43.000 changes in the international surge. The only 00:16:43.000 --> 00:16:45.000 constant is that the process keeps evolving. 00:16:45.279 --> 00:16:48.080 Exactly. The game changes and the mechanism for 00:16:48.080 --> 00:16:50.419 finding players changes with it. So here's a 00:16:50.419 --> 00:16:52.740 thought to leave you with. We mentioned the surge 00:16:52.740 --> 00:16:55.240 of international number one picks, France, back 00:16:55.240 --> 00:16:58.399 to back in 23 and 24. If the best players in 00:16:58.399 --> 00:17:00.340 the world are increasingly coming from professional 00:17:00.340 --> 00:17:04.240 academies in Europe rather than the NCAA, are 00:17:04.240 --> 00:17:06.420 we approaching a future where the U .S. college 00:17:06.420 --> 00:17:09.460 system is no longer the primary pipeline for 00:17:09.460 --> 00:17:12.450 NBA talent? It's a very real possibility. I mean, 00:17:12.450 --> 00:17:14.910 if you're a top prospect, why play for free or 00:17:14.910 --> 00:17:16.809 for an aisle of money in college when you can 00:17:16.809 --> 00:17:18.529 get professional coaching and development in 00:17:18.529 --> 00:17:21.730 Madrid or Paris? The gap is closing fast. Something 00:17:21.730 --> 00:17:23.450 to think about as you watch the names get called 00:17:23.450 --> 00:17:25.750 this year. Thanks for diving in with us. We'll 00:17:25.750 --> 00:17:26.450 catch you on the next one.