WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.040 You know, there's this specific kind of obsession 00:00:04.040 --> 00:00:06.540 we all have with beginnings. You see it everywhere. 00:00:06.820 --> 00:00:08.980 In the tech world, it's all about the garage 00:00:08.980 --> 00:00:13.259 days of, like, Apple or Amazon. Right, the origin 00:00:13.259 --> 00:00:15.439 story. The origin story. We just can't get enough 00:00:15.439 --> 00:00:17.679 of it. We're fascinated not just by the hero, 00:00:17.879 --> 00:00:19.859 you know, at the peak of their powers, but by 00:00:19.859 --> 00:00:23.019 that exact moment. The exact moment the world 00:00:23.019 --> 00:00:27.420 realized, oh, okay. Everything is about to change. 00:00:27.660 --> 00:00:30.199 It's the arrival. I like to call it the day one 00:00:30.199 --> 00:00:33.200 phenomenon. I just love the idea of immediate, 00:00:33.460 --> 00:00:36.560 undeniable impact. Exactly. And, you know, when 00:00:36.560 --> 00:00:38.500 we talk about the NBA, usually the awards we 00:00:38.500 --> 00:00:41.000 really obsess over, they're retrospective. So, 00:00:41.020 --> 00:00:43.960 finals MVP, Hall of Fame. The Hall of Fame jacket, 00:00:44.359 --> 00:00:46.799 the championship ring. Those are career toppers. 00:00:46.880 --> 00:00:48.600 They're all about the destination. Yeah, the 00:00:48.600 --> 00:00:50.700 culmination of everything. But there is one award 00:00:50.700 --> 00:00:53.039 that's just, it's different. It isn't a summary. 00:00:53.159 --> 00:00:55.100 It's a prophecy. And that's the Rookie of the 00:00:55.100 --> 00:00:57.880 Year. It is, I think, arguably the most honest 00:00:57.880 --> 00:01:00.479 award the league actually has. Well, think about 00:01:00.479 --> 00:01:03.280 it. There's no voter fatigue. You can't be tired 00:01:03.280 --> 00:01:05.319 of a guy who just got there. That's a great point. 00:01:05.579 --> 00:01:08.439 And there's no it's his turn narrative that you 00:01:08.439 --> 00:01:11.120 sometimes get with the league MVP where, you 00:01:11.120 --> 00:01:12.859 know, someone's been great for five years. So 00:01:12.859 --> 00:01:14.959 we finally give it to him. Right. This is just 00:01:14.959 --> 00:01:20.840 a raw, unfiltered assessment of new talent hitting 00:01:20.840 --> 00:01:24.140 the ecosystem for the first time. And looking 00:01:24.140 --> 00:01:27.310 at this. massive stack of research we have in 00:01:27.310 --> 00:01:29.709 front of us for this deep dive. What really struck 00:01:29.709 --> 00:01:32.469 me is just how high the signal to noise ratio 00:01:32.469 --> 00:01:35.590 is with this award. You might think, oh, it's 00:01:35.590 --> 00:01:38.109 just the best new guy. Maybe he peaks at 22 and 00:01:38.109 --> 00:01:40.489 then just vanishes. But the data says the complete 00:01:40.489 --> 00:01:43.590 opposite. It really does. This award is essentially 00:01:43.590 --> 00:01:46.069 the first filter for the Hall of Fame. It really 00:01:46.069 --> 00:01:47.390 is. We're going to get into the specific numbers 00:01:47.390 --> 00:01:50.170 later on. But the hit rate, you know, the correlation 00:01:50.170 --> 00:01:52.510 between winning rookie of the year and ending 00:01:52.510 --> 00:01:55.650 up in Springfield with a jacket is just. It's 00:01:55.650 --> 00:01:57.870 staggering. It really does separate the guys 00:01:57.870 --> 00:02:00.349 who have a good career from the absolute legends. 00:02:00.530 --> 00:02:02.510 So that's our mission today. We are going to 00:02:02.510 --> 00:02:05.730 unpack the entire history of the NBA's top newcomer 00:02:05.730 --> 00:02:09.469 honor. We're going from the very first official 00:02:09.469 --> 00:02:13.270 winner back in 1953 all the way up to the present 00:02:13.270 --> 00:02:16.069 day with Stephon Castle. And along the way, we've 00:02:16.069 --> 00:02:17.710 got to talk about the mechanics, the voting, 00:02:17.789 --> 00:02:21.030 some of the really weird. Red shirt loopholes 00:02:21.030 --> 00:02:23.349 that drive fans crazy every couple of years. 00:02:23.449 --> 00:02:25.569 Oh, yeah. And the guys who won. Yeah. But the 00:02:25.569 --> 00:02:28.069 NBA literally erased them from the history books 00:02:28.069 --> 00:02:29.990 because of scandals. The lost winners. Yeah. 00:02:30.270 --> 00:02:32.150 But I think we have to start with the hardware 00:02:32.150 --> 00:02:34.050 itself because the physical trophy just went 00:02:34.050 --> 00:02:37.250 through this massive identity shift that I think 00:02:37.250 --> 00:02:39.530 really changes how we view the award. Right. 00:02:39.590 --> 00:02:43.139 Let's start there. The rebrand. For, what, 70 00:02:43.139 --> 00:02:45.240 years, if you were the best rookie, you took 00:02:45.240 --> 00:02:46.979 home something called the Eddie Gottlieb trophy. 00:02:47.379 --> 00:02:49.699 Yep. Now, just from a historical standpoint, 00:02:50.039 --> 00:02:52.520 Eddie Gottlieb is, he's a titan. Oh, absolutely. 00:02:52.620 --> 00:02:54.439 The ultimate administrator. They called him the 00:02:54.439 --> 00:02:57.120 mogul. The mogul. He was the founder and coach 00:02:57.120 --> 00:02:59.719 of the Philadelphia Warriors. He literally made 00:02:59.719 --> 00:03:03.300 the league schedule by hand for years. I mean, 00:03:03.319 --> 00:03:05.560 without Eddie Gottlieb, there's a good chance 00:03:05.560 --> 00:03:08.479 the NBA just collapses in the 1950s. Right. But. 00:03:08.750 --> 00:03:11.169 And look, no disrespect to Eddie, he wasn't exactly 00:03:11.169 --> 00:03:13.569 striking fear into the hearts of defenders on 00:03:13.569 --> 00:03:15.669 the court. He wasn't dropping 50 points a night, 00:03:15.710 --> 00:03:18.210 no. He was a guy in a suit, an incredibly important 00:03:18.210 --> 00:03:20.629 guy in a suit, but a suit nonetheless. Exactly. 00:03:20.909 --> 00:03:25.750 So starting in the 2022 -23 season, the NBA decided, 00:03:25.949 --> 00:03:28.169 you know what, let's align the trophy with the 00:03:28.169 --> 00:03:30.909 actual on -court achievement it represents. And 00:03:30.909 --> 00:03:33.159 they renamed it... The Wilt Chamberlain trophy. 00:03:33.439 --> 00:03:35.879 Which feels like the only logical choice, really. 00:03:35.960 --> 00:03:38.939 But I think we need to contextualize why Wilt 00:03:38.939 --> 00:03:40.840 is the standard. Because we hear the name Wilt 00:03:40.840 --> 00:03:42.740 and we just think 100 points. Right. Big number. 00:03:42.840 --> 00:03:45.900 But his rookie season, specifically the 1959 00:03:45.900 --> 00:03:49.719 -60 season, is at, it's statistically offensive. 00:03:50.219 --> 00:03:51.939 It honestly sounds like a typo in the record 00:03:51.939 --> 00:03:54.659 books. Yeah. It doesn't look real. In his rookie 00:03:54.659 --> 00:03:58.000 year, Wilt Chamberlain averaged 37 .6 points 00:03:58.000 --> 00:04:01.710 per game. 37 points, six points as a rookie. 00:04:01.830 --> 00:04:05.289 And 27 rebounds per game. 27 rebounds. And to 00:04:05.289 --> 00:04:09.590 top it all off, he played 46 .4 minutes per game. 00:04:09.750 --> 00:04:12.710 Wait, wait, an NBA game is only 48 minutes long? 00:04:12.949 --> 00:04:15.469 Exactly. That means he basically never, ever 00:04:15.469 --> 00:04:18.310 sat down. That's insane. So he didn't just win 00:04:18.310 --> 00:04:20.779 rookie of the year. In that one season. He won 00:04:20.779 --> 00:04:23.379 the All -Star Game MVP and the league regular 00:04:23.379 --> 00:04:26.439 season MVP. All at once. In his first year. See, 00:04:26.459 --> 00:04:28.680 that's the context I wanted. Because people often 00:04:28.680 --> 00:04:30.759 try to wave it away and say, oh, the pace was 00:04:30.759 --> 00:04:33.439 faster back then, which it's true. There were 00:04:33.439 --> 00:04:35.540 more possessions. Sure, that's a factor. But 00:04:35.540 --> 00:04:38.519 playing 46 minutes a night against guys who are 00:04:38.519 --> 00:04:40.639 physically trying to beat you up, that's not 00:04:40.639 --> 00:04:42.639 just pace. That's a different level of endurance. 00:04:42.819 --> 00:04:45.660 It is. So naming the trophy after Wilt is the 00:04:45.660 --> 00:04:48.730 league's way of saying to every new winner. You 00:04:48.730 --> 00:04:51.329 know, whether it's Paolo Banchero or Wemby or 00:04:51.329 --> 00:04:55.209 now Stefan Castle. Here. Here is the bar. Good 00:04:55.209 --> 00:04:57.589 luck. You will almost certainly never reach it, 00:04:57.629 --> 00:04:59.930 but this is what perfection looks like from day 00:04:59.930 --> 00:05:02.689 one. And speaking of Stefan Castle, the 2024 00:05:02.689 --> 00:05:05.689 -25 winner, it's pretty interesting that the 00:05:05.689 --> 00:05:07.990 trophy currently resides in San Antonio because 00:05:07.990 --> 00:05:10.329 the Spurs have a very, very specific history 00:05:10.329 --> 00:05:12.389 with this award that we're definitely going to 00:05:12.389 --> 00:05:14.730 get to. Oh, yeah. But first, let's get under 00:05:14.730 --> 00:05:16.610 the hood of the award itself. How does this machine 00:05:16.610 --> 00:05:21.540 actually work? So, on the surface, it's deceptively 00:05:21.540 --> 00:05:24.259 simple. The award was officially established 00:05:24.259 --> 00:05:29.360 in the 1952 -53 season, and the criteria is just... 00:05:29.720 --> 00:05:31.759 the best first -year player in the regular season. 00:05:31.879 --> 00:05:34.459 And we have to stress, regular season. We see 00:05:34.459 --> 00:05:37.259 this confusion every single year. A rookie might 00:05:37.259 --> 00:05:39.639 have a pretty quiet year, but then he just explodes 00:05:39.639 --> 00:05:41.839 in the playoffs. Think about a guy like Tyler 00:05:41.839 --> 00:05:43.740 Harrow in the bubble a few years back. Right. 00:05:43.899 --> 00:05:46.060 Big playoff moments. Does that kind of playoff 00:05:46.060 --> 00:05:48.519 run help him win the award? It helps him 0%. 00:05:48.519 --> 00:05:50.699 The ballots are usually due before the playoffs 00:05:50.699 --> 00:05:53.939 even tip off. It is an 82 -game sample size. 00:05:54.430 --> 00:05:57.250 Period. So if you average, say, 30 in the playoffs, 00:05:57.329 --> 00:05:59.050 but only eight in the regular season. You are 00:05:59.050 --> 00:06:01.250 not winning rookie of the year. It's not a postseason 00:06:01.250 --> 00:06:03.889 award. And who is actually casting these ballots? 00:06:04.149 --> 00:06:06.389 Because, you know, in the NFL, you have the Associated 00:06:06.389 --> 00:06:09.189 Press. In college football, you have coaches 00:06:09.189 --> 00:06:11.790 involved in some of the big awards. For the NBA, 00:06:12.129 --> 00:06:15.769 it's a panel of sports writers and broadcasters 00:06:15.769 --> 00:06:18.819 from both the United States and Canada. So it's 00:06:18.819 --> 00:06:21.040 the media. And that's crucial, you think? I think 00:06:21.040 --> 00:06:23.259 it's crucial because it removes what you could 00:06:23.259 --> 00:06:26.120 call a coach's bias. Okay. Explain that. How 00:06:26.120 --> 00:06:29.540 so? Well, if coaches voted, you'd probably see 00:06:29.540 --> 00:06:32.740 a lot more votes for, you know, the guy who plays 00:06:32.740 --> 00:06:34.540 hard -nosed defense or the guy on the winning 00:06:34.540 --> 00:06:37.399 team, even if his stats aren't great. Or petty 00:06:37.399 --> 00:06:40.300 rivalries. Or even petty rivalries where a coach 00:06:40.300 --> 00:06:42.660 just refuses to vote for a player who, like, 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:45.579 dropped 40 on his team twice. Right. The media 00:06:45.579 --> 00:06:48.420 tends to look at the whole package. The stats, 00:06:48.500 --> 00:06:51.399 the narrative, the wow factor, and importantly, 00:06:51.620 --> 00:06:53.839 individual brilliance, even if it's happening 00:06:53.839 --> 00:06:56.000 on a really bad team. But it's not just pick 00:06:56.000 --> 00:06:58.060 one name, is it? Because that could lead to these 00:06:58.060 --> 00:07:00.620 weird plurality wins where a guy could win with 00:07:00.620 --> 00:07:02.980 like 30 % of the vote if it's a crowded field. 00:07:03.259 --> 00:07:05.959 Correct. It's a weighted system. And understanding 00:07:05.959 --> 00:07:08.100 this little bit of math explains why we don't 00:07:08.100 --> 00:07:10.899 have more controversies. Voters pick a first, 00:07:11.139 --> 00:07:13.980 a second, and a third place on their ballot. 00:07:14.079 --> 00:07:16.509 Okay. First place is worth five points, second 00:07:16.509 --> 00:07:18.509 place gets you three points, and third place 00:07:18.509 --> 00:07:20.990 gets you one point. So mathematically, this is 00:07:20.990 --> 00:07:23.930 designed to reward consensus, not just a flash 00:07:23.930 --> 00:07:27.550 in the pan. Precisely. Let's say, you know, player 00:07:27.550 --> 00:07:29.910 A is the most exciting rookie, highlights everywhere, 00:07:30.209 --> 00:07:32.810 half the voters put him first, but maybe the 00:07:32.810 --> 00:07:34.389 other half of the voters think he's inefficient, 00:07:34.649 --> 00:07:37.389 a chucker, so they leave him completely off their 00:07:37.389 --> 00:07:40.350 ballot. Okay, so it's polarizing. Very. Meanwhile, 00:07:40.449 --> 00:07:44.370 you have player B, who is just solid. efficient, 00:07:44.370 --> 00:07:46.970 helps his team win games. He's not on SportsCenter 00:07:46.970 --> 00:07:49.149 every night, but everyone respects his game. 00:07:49.269 --> 00:07:52.230 So maybe almost everyone puts player B second 00:07:52.230 --> 00:07:54.410 on their ballot. So player B could actually sneak 00:07:54.410 --> 00:07:56.509 in and win on the math because he appears on 00:07:56.509 --> 00:07:59.009 almost every ballot, whereas player A is the 00:07:59.009 --> 00:08:01.069 love him or hate him guy. Theoretically, yes, 00:08:01.250 --> 00:08:04.350 it has happened. It forces the voter to look 00:08:04.350 --> 00:08:07.129 at the entire field. It's not enough to be the 00:08:07.129 --> 00:08:09.410 favorite of a few. You have to be respected by 00:08:09.410 --> 00:08:12.040 the many. The winner is the one with the highest 00:08:12.040 --> 00:08:14.899 point total, period, regardless of who had the 00:08:14.899 --> 00:08:17.319 most first place votes. Which brings us to what 00:08:17.319 --> 00:08:20.199 I call the gold standard, because sometimes the 00:08:20.199 --> 00:08:22.480 math doesn't matter. Sometimes the choice is 00:08:22.480 --> 00:08:25.899 so obvious that everyone just agrees. Unanimous 00:08:25.899 --> 00:08:29.180 club. The six giants. Yeah. In over 70 years 00:08:29.180 --> 00:08:31.939 of this award, with hundreds of opinionated writers 00:08:31.939 --> 00:08:34.820 who, let's be honest, love to be contrarians. 00:08:34.860 --> 00:08:37.379 Oh, they love having a weird take. Only six players 00:08:37.379 --> 00:08:39.840 have ever received every single first place vote. 00:08:40.139 --> 00:08:42.700 Not one rogue voter. It's actually harder to 00:08:42.700 --> 00:08:45.500 do than winning the MVP unanimously. Think about 00:08:45.500 --> 00:08:47.980 that. Stephen Curry is the only unanimous MVP 00:08:47.980 --> 00:08:51.159 in league history. Wow. But we have six unanimous 00:08:51.159 --> 00:08:53.620 rookies. Just shows that sometimes a rookie's 00:08:53.620 --> 00:08:56.639 talent is just so overwhelming, so undeniable. 00:08:57.070 --> 00:08:59.049 There's no room for debate. Okay, let's run through 00:08:59.049 --> 00:09:00.850 them because I think each one represents a kind 00:09:00.850 --> 00:09:02.610 of shift in the game. The first one on the list 00:09:02.610 --> 00:09:06.190 was 1984, Ralph Sampson. And it's easy for people 00:09:06.190 --> 00:09:08.570 to forget now just how terrifying Ralph Sampson 00:09:08.570 --> 00:09:12.230 was as a prospect. He was 7 '4", coming out of 00:09:12.230 --> 00:09:14.809 Virginia. A giant. But he didn't play like a 00:09:14.809 --> 00:09:18.049 stiff, slow 7 -footer from the 50s. He could 00:09:18.049 --> 00:09:20.549 run the floor. He had a soft touch on his shot. 00:09:20.669 --> 00:09:22.750 He was agile. He was kind of Wemba Nyama before 00:09:22.750 --> 00:09:25.190 Wemba Nyama, the original unicorn. In a way, 00:09:25.289 --> 00:09:27.340 yeah. The Houston Rockets drafted him, and there 00:09:27.340 --> 00:09:29.740 was just zero debate. He was an immediate 20 00:09:29.740 --> 00:09:31.419 and 10 guy. He looked like the future of the 00:09:31.419 --> 00:09:33.860 sport. Total no -brainer. Then we have to jump 00:09:33.860 --> 00:09:39.019 forward to 1990, the Admiral, David Robinson. 00:09:39.379 --> 00:09:43.059 Now, his situation was very unique. He wasn't 00:09:43.059 --> 00:09:45.080 fresh out of college, strictly speaking. No, 00:09:45.100 --> 00:09:46.779 and we'll definitely dive deep into his whole 00:09:46.779 --> 00:09:48.980 redshirt status later, but just purely talking 00:09:48.980 --> 00:09:50.620 about his performance. He entered the league 00:09:50.620 --> 00:09:53.240 at 24 years old. Already a grown man. He was 00:09:53.240 --> 00:09:57.200 physically a Greek god. He stepped onto the court 00:09:57.200 --> 00:09:59.779 for the San Antonio Spurs and was immediately 00:09:59.779 --> 00:10:01.899 one of the five best centers in the entire world. 00:10:01.960 --> 00:10:04.139 Not one of the best rookies. One of the best 00:10:04.139 --> 00:10:06.659 centers. Yeah. Unanimous. Then there's this long 00:10:06.659 --> 00:10:10.879 gap. The entire 90s pass. The early 2000s pass. 00:10:11.259 --> 00:10:14.519 No unanimous winners. Not Michael Jordan. Not 00:10:14.519 --> 00:10:18.450 Shaq. Not LeBron. Not Tim Duncan. Right. And 00:10:18.450 --> 00:10:21.070 think about the competition. Shaq had to contend 00:10:21.070 --> 00:10:23.549 with a phenomenal rookie in Alonzo Mourning. 00:10:24.190 --> 00:10:26.889 LeBron had Carmelo Anthony, who had a historically 00:10:26.889 --> 00:10:28.990 great rookie season himself. Right. That was 00:10:28.990 --> 00:10:31.590 a huge debate. That's the thing. To be unanimous, 00:10:31.590 --> 00:10:33.590 you can't just be great. You have to be great 00:10:33.590 --> 00:10:35.710 in a year where nobody else is even close to 00:10:35.710 --> 00:10:37.649 your level. It's about the vacuum around you, 00:10:37.669 --> 00:10:41.610 too. So 2011 arrives. Blake Griffin. The highlight 00:10:41.610 --> 00:10:43.970 reel era begins. Yes. Blake had missed his actual 00:10:43.970 --> 00:10:46.730 draft year, 2009, due to that brutal kneecap 00:10:46.730 --> 00:10:49.909 injury. So he comes back in 2010 -11, and he 00:10:49.909 --> 00:10:51.950 was just physically overwhelming. It wasn't just 00:10:51.950 --> 00:10:54.509 the dunks, which were iconic. The Kia dunk. It 00:10:54.509 --> 00:10:56.629 was his passing, his ball handling for a power 00:10:56.629 --> 00:10:59.490 forward. He was doing things guys his size just 00:10:59.490 --> 00:11:02.110 didn't do. I remember that season so clearly. 00:11:02.830 --> 00:11:04.610 It felt like he was playing a different sport 00:11:04.610 --> 00:11:06.370 than the guys who were trying to guard him. He's 00:11:06.370 --> 00:11:08.830 jumping over cars in the dunk contest. But in 00:11:08.830 --> 00:11:11.309 the actual games, he was treating defenders like 00:11:11.309 --> 00:11:13.990 traffic cones. It was pure dominance. He made 00:11:13.990 --> 00:11:16.090 the All -Star team as a rookie. And that's usually 00:11:16.090 --> 00:11:18.169 the threshold. If you're so good as a rookie 00:11:18.169 --> 00:11:20.190 that you make the All -Star team, you're probably 00:11:20.190 --> 00:11:23.090 winning Rookie of the Year unanimously. Then, 00:11:23.090 --> 00:11:26.750 just two years later, 2013, Damian Lillard. This 00:11:26.750 --> 00:11:29.169 one is really interesting to me because he wasn't 00:11:29.169 --> 00:11:32.230 a hype guy. He wasn't Zion Williamson or some 00:11:32.230 --> 00:11:34.629 hashtag one pick everyone knew for years. No, 00:11:34.629 --> 00:11:36.549 he was the opposite. He was a four -year player 00:11:36.549 --> 00:11:39.870 from Weber State. Small school. A lot of people 00:11:39.870 --> 00:11:42.090 didn't know who he was. But that experience mattered. 00:11:42.490 --> 00:11:45.029 It mattered immensely. He walked onto the Portland 00:11:45.029 --> 00:11:47.490 Trailblazers and played like a 10 -year veteran 00:11:47.490 --> 00:11:50.049 from his first game. He was so composed. The 00:11:50.049 --> 00:11:52.250 voters valued that kind of polish. He wasn't 00:11:52.250 --> 00:11:54.250 making rookie mistakes. He was closing games. 00:11:54.649 --> 00:11:58.860 Total control. Then, 2016, Carl Anthony Towns. 00:11:59.100 --> 00:12:02.559 Kate. This was the prototype of the modern big 00:12:02.559 --> 00:12:05.159 man. He could shoot the three. He could post 00:12:05.159 --> 00:12:08.039 you up. He could handle the ball a bit. He averaged 00:12:08.039 --> 00:12:10.720 a double -double for the Timberwolves so effortlessly, 00:12:10.860 --> 00:12:13.179 it was almost boring. He just produced every 00:12:13.179 --> 00:12:15.960 single night. Every night. No debate. And finally, 00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:18.320 the most recent member of this very exclusive 00:12:18.320 --> 00:12:23.190 club, 2024. Victor Wimbanyama. The alien. Yeah. 00:12:23.429 --> 00:12:26.690 This was, without a doubt, the easiest vote in 00:12:26.690 --> 00:12:29.809 the history of the award. You had Chet Holmgren, 00:12:29.970 --> 00:12:32.250 who had a fantastic rookie season for Oklahoma 00:12:32.250 --> 00:12:35.450 City. Historically great, even. Statistically, 00:12:35.490 --> 00:12:37.710 one of the best rookie seasons ever for a defender. 00:12:38.129 --> 00:12:40.750 In almost any other year in NBA history, Chet 00:12:40.750 --> 00:12:43.149 wins Rookie of the Year probably easily. But 00:12:43.149 --> 00:12:45.970 he ran into a buzzsaw. He ran into a 7 '4 guy 00:12:45.970 --> 00:12:48.049 who was leading the entire league in blocks, 00:12:48.250 --> 00:12:50.909 hitting step -back threes, and doing things that, 00:12:50.929 --> 00:12:52.730 frankly, physics shouldn't allow a person to 00:12:52.730 --> 00:12:54.710 do. It would have been actual malpractice to 00:12:54.710 --> 00:12:56.629 vote for anyone else. It's so interesting to 00:12:56.629 --> 00:12:59.149 me that four of those six, Sampson, Robinson, 00:12:59.570 --> 00:13:02.509 Towns, Wemba and Yama, are big men. Well, it 00:13:02.509 --> 00:13:04.370 speaks to the visual impact, doesn't it? I think 00:13:04.370 --> 00:13:06.929 so. A dominant guard can control a game, for 00:13:06.929 --> 00:13:10.950 sure. But a dominant 7 -footer changes the geometry 00:13:10.950 --> 00:13:13.470 of the entire court. They alter every shot at 00:13:13.470 --> 00:13:15.909 the rim. They grab every rebound. It's just impossible 00:13:15.909 --> 00:13:21.950 to ignore a great big man. Their impact is visceral. 00:13:22.090 --> 00:13:24.590 We mentioned Wilt and how he won the MVP and 00:13:24.590 --> 00:13:26.389 Rookie of the Year in the same season. And it 00:13:26.389 --> 00:13:28.690 feels like an unbreakable record, you know, like 00:13:28.690 --> 00:13:30.750 DiMaggio's hit streak. It feels like it should 00:13:30.750 --> 00:13:32.610 be. But he actually isn't the only one to do 00:13:32.610 --> 00:13:34.750 it. No, there is one other name in that club. 00:13:34.870 --> 00:13:39.039 You have to go to the 1968 -69 season. Wes Unseld. 00:13:39.080 --> 00:13:42.259 Wes Unseld, the Baltimore Bullet. Who was built 00:13:42.259 --> 00:13:44.580 like a refrigerator. He absolutely was. But here's 00:13:44.580 --> 00:13:47.200 the crazy part. He was only 6 '7 playing center. 00:13:47.360 --> 00:13:49.480 6 '7, but he was just immovable. He had this 00:13:49.480 --> 00:13:51.659 incredible strength. He didn't score much. He 00:13:51.659 --> 00:13:53.659 averaged something like 13 points a game. That's 00:13:53.659 --> 00:13:56.460 it for an MVP. But he grabbed 18 rebounds a game. 00:13:57.059 --> 00:14:00.539 And his outlet passing, he was famous for it. 00:14:00.580 --> 00:14:02.320 He would grab a defensive rebound and throw a 00:14:02.320 --> 00:14:05.200 perfect 80 -foot chest pass to a streaking guard. 00:14:05.629 --> 00:14:07.590 He turned the defensive rebound into a fast break 00:14:07.590 --> 00:14:10.110 faster than anyone in history. So the voters 00:14:10.110 --> 00:14:12.529 looked at him and said, OK, he's not scoring 00:14:12.529 --> 00:14:14.889 30, but he fundamentally changed the team's entire 00:14:14.889 --> 00:14:17.169 identity. The Baltimore Bullets went from last 00:14:17.169 --> 00:14:19.529 place in their division to first place. Yeah. 00:14:19.750 --> 00:14:22.250 Literally worst to first. The voters rewarded 00:14:22.250 --> 00:14:25.029 the winning. So they gave him both the MVP and 00:14:25.029 --> 00:14:26.889 the Rookie of the Year. We haven't seen it happen 00:14:26.889 --> 00:14:29.519 since. Why do you think that is? I mean. We had 00:14:29.519 --> 00:14:31.820 some magical rookies. Magic Johnson started at 00:14:31.820 --> 00:14:33.639 center in the NBA finals as a rookie and won 00:14:33.639 --> 00:14:36.879 finals MVP. Right. Michael Jordan averaged 28 00:14:36.879 --> 00:14:40.320 a game. Why no league MVP for them? I think the 00:14:40.320 --> 00:14:42.960 league is just too talented now. The gap between 00:14:42.960 --> 00:14:45.620 a 20 -year -old rookie, no matter how good, and 00:14:45.620 --> 00:14:48.279 a 28 -year -old in his prime, Nikola Jokic or 00:14:48.279 --> 00:14:51.639 Giannis Antetokounmpo, is just too wide. Physically 00:14:51.639 --> 00:14:54.179 and mentally. Both. Wilt and Wes played in an 00:14:54.179 --> 00:14:57.980 era where a true physical outlier could just... 00:14:58.240 --> 00:15:00.720 bully the entire league immediately. The general 00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:02.960 talent pool wasn't as deep. That makes sense. 00:15:02.980 --> 00:15:04.940 The learning curve is just so much steeper now. 00:15:05.159 --> 00:15:07.019 And speaking of learning curves, I want to talk 00:15:07.019 --> 00:15:09.200 about the predictive power of this award. You 00:15:09.200 --> 00:15:11.879 called it the first filter earlier. Right. So 00:15:11.879 --> 00:15:13.580 if you take the list of all the Rookie of the 00:15:13.580 --> 00:15:15.279 Year winners who are eligible for the Hall of 00:15:15.279 --> 00:15:17.320 Fame, so basically they've been retired for long 00:15:17.320 --> 00:15:20.080 enough. 30 of them are in the hall. 30. That 00:15:20.080 --> 00:15:22.720 is a staggeringly high percentage compared to, 00:15:22.779 --> 00:15:25.240 say, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. 00:15:25.419 --> 00:15:28.159 It is. In football, a running back can win rookie 00:15:28.159 --> 00:15:30.899 of the year by having a huge workload and then 00:15:30.899 --> 00:15:33.159 be completely burned out in four years. Right. 00:15:33.220 --> 00:15:36.320 The position is brutal. In basketball, if you 00:15:36.320 --> 00:15:38.820 are skilled enough and talented enough to dominate 00:15:38.820 --> 00:15:41.379 as a rookie, you usually have the fundamental 00:15:41.379 --> 00:15:44.039 toolkit to dominate for a decade or more. You 00:15:44.039 --> 00:15:46.279 just look at the names on that list. Kareem Abdul 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:50.759 -Jabbar. Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson. 00:15:50.799 --> 00:15:53.940 Allen Iverson, 1996 -97. That wasn't just a stats 00:15:53.940 --> 00:15:56.100 win for him. That was a cultural win. Oh, absolutely. 00:15:56.320 --> 00:15:59.320 The crossover on Jordan, the baggy shorts, the 00:15:59.320 --> 00:16:02.320 braids. He announced that a new era was arriving. 00:16:02.500 --> 00:16:04.600 Yeah. And that's what this award does best. It 00:16:04.600 --> 00:16:08.200 signals the arrival of the next one. But, and 00:16:08.200 --> 00:16:09.960 this is where we get into the weeds. Sometimes 00:16:09.960 --> 00:16:13.120 the definition of a rookie is a little pliable. 00:16:13.259 --> 00:16:15.220 The anomalies. This is my favorite part of the 00:16:15.220 --> 00:16:17.639 rule book. We absolutely need to talk about the 00:16:17.639 --> 00:16:19.799 red shirts because it feels like every few years 00:16:19.799 --> 00:16:23.340 a guy wins rookie of the year after sitting out 00:16:23.340 --> 00:16:26.940 a full season and NBA Twitter just melts down. 00:16:27.100 --> 00:16:29.480 He's not a rookie. He's a sophomore. It's the 00:16:29.480 --> 00:16:32.480 Ben Simmons role debate or before that, the Blake 00:16:32.480 --> 00:16:34.419 Griffin role debate. OK, let's break down the 00:16:34.419 --> 00:16:36.519 actual logic here because it's important. Blake 00:16:36.519 --> 00:16:38.679 Griffin gets drafted number one overall in 2009 00:16:38.679 --> 00:16:41.610 by the Clippers. breaks his kneecap in the preseason, 00:16:41.830 --> 00:16:44.789 doesn't play a single second of a regular season 00:16:44.789 --> 00:16:47.490 game. Right. So according to the official NBA 00:16:47.490 --> 00:16:51.029 bylaws, his rookie clock has not started. You 00:16:51.029 --> 00:16:53.330 are a rookie in the first year that you actually 00:16:53.330 --> 00:16:55.789 play in a regulation game. Sitting on the bench 00:16:55.789 --> 00:16:58.509 in a suit doesn't count. So what does he do for 00:16:58.509 --> 00:17:01.549 that whole 2009 -10 season? He's traveling with 00:17:01.549 --> 00:17:03.370 the team. He's sitting in the film sessions. 00:17:03.450 --> 00:17:05.750 He's working with NBA -level strength and conditioning 00:17:05.750 --> 00:17:09.730 coaches. He's eating food prepared by NBA nutritionists. 00:17:09.809 --> 00:17:11.809 That's the core of the argument against it, isn't 00:17:11.809 --> 00:17:14.329 it? The advantage of the NBA diet for a year. 00:17:14.569 --> 00:17:18.160 And it is a real tangible advantage. When Blake 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:21.200 finally debuted in 2010 -11, he was physically 00:17:21.200 --> 00:17:23.700 much more mature and prepared than the guys who 00:17:23.700 --> 00:17:26.059 were drafted in 2010, like John Wall. He had 00:17:26.059 --> 00:17:27.880 a full year of professional conditioning under 00:17:27.880 --> 00:17:30.119 his belt. And he came out and won the award unanimously. 00:17:30.480 --> 00:17:33.259 He did. And then a few years later, Ben Simmons 00:17:33.259 --> 00:17:36.740 did the exact same thing. Drafted in 2016, broke 00:17:36.740 --> 00:17:39.380 his foot, sat out the whole year, came back in 00:17:39.380 --> 00:17:42.519 2017 -18 and won. I remember that year vividly 00:17:42.519 --> 00:17:45.240 because Donovan Mitchell, who was the true... 00:17:45.740 --> 00:17:48.539 rookie in that class was making a huge deal out 00:17:48.539 --> 00:17:50.619 of it. Oh, the pettiness was elite. He wore a 00:17:50.619 --> 00:17:52.920 hoodie to a game that just said rookie on the 00:17:52.920 --> 00:17:55.200 front with the official dictionary definition 00:17:55.200 --> 00:17:57.380 printed on it. Just trolling Simmons. It was 00:17:57.380 --> 00:17:59.960 great theater. But here's the counter argument, 00:18:00.140 --> 00:18:03.059 to be fair to Blake and Ben. Okay. While they 00:18:03.059 --> 00:18:04.980 had the advantage of all that professional training, 00:18:05.200 --> 00:18:08.119 they also had the massive disadvantage of rust. 00:18:08.730 --> 00:18:11.509 They hadn't played in a real competitive basketball 00:18:11.509 --> 00:18:14.589 game in something like 18 months. That is incredibly 00:18:14.589 --> 00:18:16.970 tough to overcome. That's a fair point. Game 00:18:16.970 --> 00:18:18.910 speed is different. But it's not just injuries 00:18:18.910 --> 00:18:21.069 that create these situations. Sometimes it's 00:18:21.069 --> 00:18:26.170 a choice. Or duty. David Robinson. The commitment 00:18:26.170 --> 00:18:28.630 delay. This is a story that just feels impossible 00:18:28.630 --> 00:18:31.529 in the modern NBA. Completely. It would never 00:18:31.529 --> 00:18:34.140 happen today. So Robinson played at the Naval 00:18:34.140 --> 00:18:36.259 Academy. He was 7 '1", clearly the best player 00:18:36.259 --> 00:18:38.480 in the country. The Spurs drafted him number 00:18:38.480 --> 00:18:41.539 one overall in 1987. No way. Knowing he couldn't 00:18:41.539 --> 00:18:43.000 play for them. Because if you go to the Naval 00:18:43.000 --> 00:18:45.700 Academy, you owe Uncle Sam some time. He had 00:18:45.700 --> 00:18:47.779 a two -year active duty commitment to the Navy. 00:18:47.900 --> 00:18:50.640 He served as a civil engineering officer. So 00:18:50.640 --> 00:18:54.099 the Spurs basically stashed their franchise savior 00:18:54.099 --> 00:18:57.630 on a naval base for two years and just... Can 00:18:57.630 --> 00:19:00.210 you even imagine a GM surviving that press conference 00:19:00.210 --> 00:19:02.730 today? Hey, great news. I drafted our new franchise 00:19:02.730 --> 00:19:05.450 player. He'll be here in 2027. You'd be fired 00:19:05.450 --> 00:19:07.470 before the press conference is over. Oh. But 00:19:07.470 --> 00:19:09.450 it worked. Robinson kept in shape. He played 00:19:09.450 --> 00:19:11.450 for the U .S. Olympic team in 88. And when he 00:19:11.450 --> 00:19:13.450 finally arrived in San Antonio in 89, he was 00:19:13.450 --> 00:19:16.190 a fully formed adult. He was 24 years old. He 00:19:16.190 --> 00:19:18.309 just destroyed the teenagers he was playing against. 00:19:18.609 --> 00:19:20.630 And then you have the Larry Bird situation, which 00:19:20.630 --> 00:19:22.450 was a little different. Right. Bird was drafted 00:19:22.450 --> 00:19:25.549 in 1978 by the Celtics. There was this weird 00:19:25.549 --> 00:19:28.609 junior eligible rule back then where you could 00:19:28.609 --> 00:19:30.809 draft a player before their senior year of college. 00:19:30.950 --> 00:19:34.289 OK. But Bird told the Celtics, thanks, but no 00:19:34.289 --> 00:19:36.569 thanks. I'm not coming yet. I want to try to 00:19:36.569 --> 00:19:38.549 win a national title at Indiana State with my 00:19:38.549 --> 00:19:40.690 teammates. You wanted one more run at it. He 00:19:40.690 --> 00:19:44.750 did. And Red Auerbach, the genius GM of the Celtics, 00:19:44.809 --> 00:19:48.400 said, fine, I'll wait. He signed him to a contract, 00:19:48.480 --> 00:19:50.859 but allowed him to play his senior year of college. 00:19:51.079 --> 00:19:53.619 Which, of course, led to that famous championship 00:19:53.619 --> 00:19:56.160 game against Magic Johnson. The game that basically 00:19:56.160 --> 00:19:59.579 saved college basketball and the NBA. So Bird 00:19:59.579 --> 00:20:02.440 loses that game, then comes to Boston in 1979. 00:20:02.960 --> 00:20:05.279 And it set up the perfect narrative, right? Bird 00:20:05.279 --> 00:20:08.519 versus Magic, rookie versus rookie. East versus 00:20:08.519 --> 00:20:10.819 West, Celtics versus Lakers. It was perfect. 00:20:10.980 --> 00:20:13.819 And it's funny, Magic actually won the NBA Finals 00:20:13.819 --> 00:20:16.079 MVP that rookie year, but Bird won Rookie of 00:20:16.079 --> 00:20:18.299 the Year because his regular season stats were 00:20:18.299 --> 00:20:20.619 just a little bit better, and he turned the Celtics 00:20:20.619 --> 00:20:22.380 around so dramatically. He was the start of the 00:20:22.380 --> 00:20:24.819 rivalry that defined the 80s. There's one more 00:20:24.819 --> 00:20:27.839 oddity in this category, Jerry Lucas. This is 00:20:27.839 --> 00:20:30.599 a real deep cut. This is the contract dispute 00:20:30.599 --> 00:20:34.480 rookie. Very weird one. So Jerry Lucas was a 00:20:34.480 --> 00:20:38.099 legend at Ohio State, a huge star, drafted by 00:20:38.099 --> 00:20:40.759 the Cincinnati Royals in 1962. But he didn't 00:20:40.759 --> 00:20:43.200 want to play for them right away. No. He actually 00:20:43.200 --> 00:20:46.119 tried to sign with a team in a rival league, 00:20:46.279 --> 00:20:48.859 the ABL, the American Basketball League. A rival 00:20:48.859 --> 00:20:51.700 league. A very short -lived rival league. He 00:20:51.700 --> 00:20:53.759 signed with a team called the Cleveland Pipers, 00:20:53.819 --> 00:20:55.920 which was owned by a young George Steinbrenner. 00:20:56.059 --> 00:20:59.359 The New York Yankees guy. The very same. But 00:20:59.359 --> 00:21:02.130 the whole thing was a mess. The team folded, 00:21:02.329 --> 00:21:04.990 the league folded, and Lucas ended up having 00:21:04.990 --> 00:21:07.289 to sit out the entire year. So he just didn't 00:21:07.289 --> 00:21:09.250 play. Didn't play at all. He didn't make his 00:21:09.250 --> 00:21:12.950 debut for the Royals until the 1963 season. And, 00:21:13.009 --> 00:21:15.349 just like the others we mentioned, the year off 00:21:15.349 --> 00:21:17.390 didn't seem to hurt him. He came in and won Rookie 00:21:17.390 --> 00:21:19.289 of the Year. It almost seems like taking a year 00:21:19.289 --> 00:21:21.630 off is the best strategy if you want to win this 00:21:21.630 --> 00:21:23.970 award. If you can afford to do it, the redshirt 00:21:23.970 --> 00:21:26.230 year seems to produce some incredibly polished 00:21:26.230 --> 00:21:28.539 winners, that's for sure. Now, earlier we talked 00:21:28.539 --> 00:21:31.019 about how the weighted voting system is designed 00:21:31.019 --> 00:21:34.099 to prevent ties. Right. It's supposed to. But 00:21:34.099 --> 00:21:37.539 our research shows the system is not foolproof. 00:21:37.720 --> 00:21:41.099 We have ties. You do. Three different times in 00:21:41.099 --> 00:21:44.259 history, the voters were so perfectly split that 00:21:44.259 --> 00:21:46.960 we had to crown co -rookies of the year. I think 00:21:46.960 --> 00:21:48.759 the most famous one, the one everyone remembers, 00:21:48.880 --> 00:21:53.140 has to be 1994 -95. Grant Hill and Jason Kidd. 00:21:53.559 --> 00:21:55.700 It was the perfect storm. You had two completely 00:21:55.700 --> 00:21:58.519 different players who were both incredible. You 00:21:58.519 --> 00:22:00.720 had Grant Hill in Detroit. He was Mr. Nice Guy. 00:22:01.259 --> 00:22:03.640 Polished came from Duke, this smooth scoring 00:22:03.640 --> 00:22:06.180 machine. The heir apparent to Michael Jordan, 00:22:06.319 --> 00:22:08.599 they said. That was the narrative. And then you 00:22:08.599 --> 00:22:11.279 had Jason Kidd in Dallas, all flash, this passing 00:22:11.279 --> 00:22:13.980 genius, California cool, changing the game with 00:22:13.980 --> 00:22:16.059 his vision. They were the undisputed future of 00:22:16.059 --> 00:22:18.119 the league, and they arrived at the same time. 00:22:18.380 --> 00:22:20.500 And the vote ended up in a dead heat. And honestly, 00:22:20.579 --> 00:22:22.319 looking back on it, it was the right call. They 00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:23.940 both deserved it. it. They both ended up in the 00:22:23.940 --> 00:22:26.299 Hall of Fame. It was the correct inability to 00:22:26.299 --> 00:22:28.660 decide. What were the other two ties? The first 00:22:28.660 --> 00:22:32.359 one was way back in 1971 between Dave Cowens 00:22:32.359 --> 00:22:34.740 of the Celtics and Jeff Petry of the Blazers. 00:22:34.940 --> 00:22:37.279 Okay. And the most recent one was in the year 00:22:37.279 --> 00:22:41.539 2000. Elton Brand and Steve Francis. That is 00:22:41.539 --> 00:22:44.099 a great contrast in styles right there. It really 00:22:44.099 --> 00:22:48.029 is. Elton Brand was this fundamental Some would 00:22:48.029 --> 00:22:51.210 say boring, but incredibly effective power forward 00:22:51.210 --> 00:22:54.289 for the Bulls. Just a 20 and 10 machine. All 00:22:54.289 --> 00:22:56.549 substance. All substance. And then you had Steve 00:22:56.549 --> 00:22:59.809 Francis, Stevie Franchise for the Houston Rockets. 00:22:59.809 --> 00:23:03.769 All dunks, crossovers, insane highlights, pure 00:23:03.769 --> 00:23:06.069 style. And the voters just couldn't decide between 00:23:06.069 --> 00:23:08.230 the substance and the style. So they just picked 00:23:08.230 --> 00:23:10.039 both. I want to zoom out from the individual 00:23:10.039 --> 00:23:12.339 players for a second and look at the map, because 00:23:12.339 --> 00:23:14.640 if you track the winners of this award over time, 00:23:14.740 --> 00:23:16.519 you are basically tracking the globalization 00:23:16.519 --> 00:23:18.759 of the game of basketball. Oh, absolutely. It's 00:23:18.759 --> 00:23:21.019 a perfect timeline for the first, what, 50 years 00:23:21.019 --> 00:23:23.259 of its existence. This was an American award. 00:23:23.420 --> 00:23:25.960 The pipeline was completely rigid. American high 00:23:25.960 --> 00:23:28.779 school to the NCAA to the NBA. That was it. So 00:23:28.779 --> 00:23:31.180 who was the first glitch in the matrix? Who broke 00:23:31.180 --> 00:23:33.539 the hold? Well, the first little ripple was Patrick 00:23:33.539 --> 00:23:36.700 Ewing back in 1986. He was born in Jamaica. Right. 00:23:36.839 --> 00:23:38.640 But he moved to the U .S. when he was 11. He 00:23:38.640 --> 00:23:40.640 played at Georgetown. He played for Team USA 00:23:40.640 --> 00:23:44.390 in the Olympics. He was international by birth, 00:23:44.569 --> 00:23:47.190 but completely American by his basketball upbringing. 00:23:47.430 --> 00:23:50.490 So not a true international product. No. The 00:23:50.490 --> 00:23:54.210 real earthquake was the 2001 -02 season. Pau 00:23:54.210 --> 00:23:56.690 Gasol. The Spaniard. Pau was completely different. 00:23:56.869 --> 00:24:00.230 He never played a second of NCAA ball. He came 00:24:00.230 --> 00:24:03.049 straight from FC Barcelona's pro team. A seasoned 00:24:03.049 --> 00:24:05.029 pro. When he won Rookie of the Year for the Memphis 00:24:05.029 --> 00:24:07.769 Grizzlies, it was like a signal flare went up 00:24:07.769 --> 00:24:10.289 for every GM in the league. It said, you don't 00:24:10.289 --> 00:24:12.279 need to just watch the Final Four to f***. find 00:24:12.279 --> 00:24:15.079 your next franchise player. You can go to Spain. 00:24:15.319 --> 00:24:17.799 You can go anywhere. And now, in the years since, 00:24:17.940 --> 00:24:20.799 the floodgates are just completely open. Just 00:24:20.799 --> 00:24:23.220 look at the last decade or so. Kyrie Irving was 00:24:23.220 --> 00:24:25.700 born in Australia. Andrew Wiggins is from Canada. 00:24:26.140 --> 00:24:28.400 Carl Anthony Towns represents the Dominican Republic. 00:24:28.900 --> 00:24:31.799 Ben Simmons is from Australia. Luka Donicic from 00:24:31.799 --> 00:24:34.940 Slovenia. And now, Victor Wimbanyama from France. 00:24:35.420 --> 00:24:37.759 It's almost becoming rare for an American college 00:24:37.759 --> 00:24:39.920 player to win it anymore. And this connects right 00:24:39.920 --> 00:24:41.819 back to that redshirt idea we were talking about. 00:24:42.240 --> 00:24:44.960 We talked about how Blake Griffin had an advantage 00:24:44.960 --> 00:24:47.240 because he sat out a year and trained with pros. 00:24:47.500 --> 00:24:50.440 Right. Well, Luka Donicic had an even bigger 00:24:50.440 --> 00:24:52.940 advantage than that. Professionalism. Exactly. 00:24:53.559 --> 00:24:56.200 Luka started playing for Real Madrid's senior 00:24:56.200 --> 00:25:00.700 team when he was 16 years old. In 2018, the year 00:25:00.700 --> 00:25:03.140 before he was drafted by the Mavericks, he was 00:25:03.140 --> 00:25:06.220 the MVP of the EuroLeague. the second best basketball 00:25:06.220 --> 00:25:08.420 league in the world. So he was playing against 00:25:08.420 --> 00:25:10.799 grown men, fighting for his paycheck, dealing 00:25:10.799 --> 00:25:13.500 with hostile crowds in places like Greece and 00:25:13.500 --> 00:25:15.799 Turkey. So when he got to the NBA and people 00:25:15.799 --> 00:25:18.519 in the media were asking, can this kid handle 00:25:18.519 --> 00:25:20.940 the pressure? It was laughable. He must have 00:25:20.940 --> 00:25:23.480 been laughing at them. He was. He stepped onto 00:25:23.480 --> 00:25:25.559 the court in Dallas and looked like a 10 -year 00:25:25.559 --> 00:25:27.960 veteran because in many ways he already was a 00:25:27.960 --> 00:25:30.299 veteran. The same thing with Wemba Nyama playing 00:25:30.299 --> 00:25:33.319 for Metropolitan's 92 in France. These guys aren't 00:25:33.319 --> 00:25:35.460 rookies in the traditional sense of the word. 00:25:35.500 --> 00:25:38.200 They are seasoned pros who are just entering 00:25:38.200 --> 00:25:41.059 a new league. It really does raise a provocative 00:25:41.059 --> 00:25:44.039 question for the future of the sport then. Is 00:25:44.039 --> 00:25:47.420 the college pathway dead for the truly elite 00:25:47.420 --> 00:25:50.559 future rookie of the year level talent? It's 00:25:50.559 --> 00:25:53.779 certainly under siege. If your goal is to be 00:25:53.779 --> 00:25:55.859 ready to win this award and dominate from day 00:25:55.859 --> 00:25:58.839 one, the data now suggests that playing professional 00:25:58.839 --> 00:26:01.640 ball in Europe, or even in the G League Ignite 00:26:01.640 --> 00:26:04.579 program, might be far better preparation than 00:26:04.579 --> 00:26:06.799 playing zone defense against 19 -year -olds in 00:26:06.799 --> 00:26:09.599 the NCAA. LaMelo Ball is another perfect example. 00:26:09.880 --> 00:26:12.279 Perfect example. He skipped college entirely 00:26:12.279 --> 00:26:15.599 and went to play Pro Bowl in Lithuania and then 00:26:15.599 --> 00:26:17.960 Australia. He went the mercenary route. He did. 00:26:18.059 --> 00:26:19.799 And he came to the NBA and won Rookie of the 00:26:19.799 --> 00:26:22.640 Year. The traditional four -year college player, 00:26:22.799 --> 00:26:25.759 like Damian Lillard, is becoming the dinosaur 00:26:25.759 --> 00:26:27.839 in this equation. Okay, let's pivot from the 00:26:27.839 --> 00:26:29.960 players to the teams. Because while the player 00:26:29.960 --> 00:26:32.099 gets the trophy, the team is the one that has 00:26:32.099 --> 00:26:35.140 to draft them. So who has the best eye for young 00:26:35.140 --> 00:26:37.319 talent? Or maybe the better question is, who 00:26:37.319 --> 00:26:39.779 is just consistently lucky enough to be bad enough 00:26:39.779 --> 00:26:41.880 to get the high draft picks? That's the catch 00:26:41.880 --> 00:26:44.859 -22 of this award, isn't it? To get a Rookie 00:26:44.859 --> 00:26:46.940 of the Year, you usually have to have been a 00:26:46.940 --> 00:26:48.799 terrible team the year before to get that high 00:26:48.799 --> 00:26:51.839 pick. So the leaders on this list are franchises 00:26:51.839 --> 00:26:55.180 that have, let's say, historically struggled 00:26:55.180 --> 00:26:57.420 at times. So who's at the top of the leaderboard? 00:26:57.660 --> 00:27:00.500 The Golden State Warriors franchise? Leave the 00:27:00.500 --> 00:27:03.339 way. Now, of course, they're a dynasty now, but 00:27:03.339 --> 00:27:05.740 if you look back at their history as the Philadelphia 00:27:05.740 --> 00:27:08.119 Warriors and the San Francisco Warriors, they 00:27:08.119 --> 00:27:09.920 spend a lot of time in the lottery. And they 00:27:09.920 --> 00:27:11.680 have how many winners? They have six winners. 00:27:11.859 --> 00:27:14.000 Six? Who are the big names on that list? It's 00:27:14.000 --> 00:27:16.380 a murderer's row of talent. Woody Salisbury back 00:27:16.380 --> 00:27:20.200 in 58, Wilt Chamberlain in 60, Rip Berry in 66, 00:27:20.720 --> 00:27:24.299 Jamal Wilkes in 75, Mitch Richmond in 89, and 00:27:24.299 --> 00:27:27.359 Chris Webber in 94. Wow, that is a staggering 00:27:27.359 --> 00:27:30.019 list of offensive talent. Mitch Richmond, part 00:27:30.019 --> 00:27:33.619 of Run TMC. C -Webb in his prime. It's a franchise 00:27:33.619 --> 00:27:36.539 that has historically valued scoring. They draft 00:27:36.539 --> 00:27:38.599 guys who can put the ball in the basket. Even 00:27:38.599 --> 00:27:40.519 Stephen Curry, though he didn't win Rookie of 00:27:40.519 --> 00:27:43.400 the Year, he famously lost to Tyreek Evans. He 00:27:43.400 --> 00:27:45.779 still fits that mold perfectly. Who is chasing 00:27:45.779 --> 00:27:48.420 the Warriors on that list? The Clippers and the 00:27:48.420 --> 00:27:50.640 Kings franchises are right behind them. They 00:27:50.640 --> 00:27:52.500 both have five winners each. Okay. The Clippers 00:27:52.500 --> 00:27:54.640 makes total sense, given they were the laughingstock 00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:56.980 of the league for about 30 straight years. Exactly. 00:27:57.119 --> 00:28:00.720 Bob McAdoo, Terry Cummings, Blake Griffin. They 00:28:00.720 --> 00:28:03.220 just had a lot of very high picks for a very 00:28:03.220 --> 00:28:06.700 long time. And the Kings franchise. That includes 00:28:06.700 --> 00:28:09.079 their days as the Cincinnati Royals and Rochester 00:28:09.079 --> 00:28:11.960 Royals. They've had legends like Oscar Robertson 00:28:11.960 --> 00:28:14.920 and Jerry Lucas, and more recently, Tyreek Evans. 00:28:15.240 --> 00:28:17.859 Tyreek Evans, I forgot he won. That was an unbelievable 00:28:17.859 --> 00:28:21.460 rookie season. He averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds, 00:28:21.460 --> 00:28:23.920 and 5 assists right out of the gate. He did. 00:28:24.000 --> 00:28:26.200 He unfortunately peaked very early in his career, 00:28:26.339 --> 00:28:29.079 but that specific rookie season was historic. 00:28:29.710 --> 00:28:31.809 He joined Oscar Robertson and Michael Jordan 00:28:31.809 --> 00:28:34.609 as the only rookies in history to post those 00:28:34.609 --> 00:28:37.750 25 -5 numbers. Now, here is a stat from our research 00:28:37.750 --> 00:28:40.529 that just completely blew my mind. There are 00:28:40.529 --> 00:28:43.289 some very successful, well -run franchises that 00:28:43.289 --> 00:28:45.150 have never had a Rookie of the Year winner. Yep, 00:28:45.230 --> 00:28:47.710 the Denver Duggets and the Miami Heat. Zero. 00:28:47.849 --> 00:28:50.269 For both of them. Zero. Not even with Dwyane 00:28:50.269 --> 00:28:52.650 Wade in Miami. Wade was fantastic, but he was 00:28:52.650 --> 00:28:54.710 in the same draft class as LeBron James, who 00:28:54.710 --> 00:28:58.460 won it in 2003 -04. Ah, right. Just tough luck. 00:28:58.660 --> 00:29:01.599 A brutal year to be a rookie. And the nuggets. 00:29:02.400 --> 00:29:05.980 Nikola Jokic was a second round pick who developed 00:29:05.980 --> 00:29:08.660 slowly. He wasn't that rookie of the year type 00:29:08.660 --> 00:29:11.160 of immediate explosion. He only averaged about 00:29:11.160 --> 00:29:13.559 10 points a game as a rookie. So it really shows 00:29:13.559 --> 00:29:16.200 that you don't necessarily need a rookie of the 00:29:16.200 --> 00:29:19.140 year to build a championship culture. In fact, 00:29:19.180 --> 00:29:22.539 maybe it even helps not to rely on one teenage 00:29:22.539 --> 00:29:24.839 savior. Well, that's the Miami Heat culture in 00:29:24.839 --> 00:29:26.880 a nutshell, right? They develop guys. They find 00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:28.720 diamonds in the rough in the second round or 00:29:28.720 --> 00:29:30.960 undrafted. They don't typically tank for the 00:29:30.960 --> 00:29:33.210 number one pick. OK, I want to go into the X 00:29:33.210 --> 00:29:35.690 -Files portion of this deep dive. The unofficial 00:29:35.690 --> 00:29:38.910 history, the lost winners. The lost files. This 00:29:38.910 --> 00:29:40.390 is where it gets a little bit dark and weird. 00:29:40.589 --> 00:29:43.410 So the award officially starts in the 1952 -53 00:29:43.410 --> 00:29:47.309 season with a guy named Don Meineke. But basketball 00:29:47.309 --> 00:29:50.410 existed before 1952. Why does the NBA pretend 00:29:50.410 --> 00:29:52.710 that it didn't? Well, that's the thing. Prior 00:29:52.710 --> 00:29:57.009 to 1952 -53, newspaper writers did select a rookie 00:29:57.009 --> 00:29:59.619 of the year every season. And for a brief moment 00:29:59.619 --> 00:30:02.480 in the 1990s, the NBA actually acknowledged these 00:30:02.480 --> 00:30:05.099 guys in their official encyclopedia and media 00:30:05.099 --> 00:30:07.519 guides. OK, so they were recognized at one point. 00:30:07.539 --> 00:30:10.420 They were. But then they stopped. They were just 00:30:10.420 --> 00:30:12.650 scrubbed from the official record books. They 00:30:12.650 --> 00:30:15.750 vanished. Why the erasure? What happened? It 00:30:15.750 --> 00:30:17.549 has a lot to do with the college point shaving 00:30:17.549 --> 00:30:20.829 scandals of the early 1950s. The CCNY scandal. 00:30:21.150 --> 00:30:24.170 Exactly. Several massive college stars who came 00:30:24.170 --> 00:30:26.589 into the league in that era were later implicated 00:30:26.589 --> 00:30:29.750 in fixing college games for gamblers. And the 00:30:29.750 --> 00:30:32.210 most famous one among the lost winners is a guy 00:30:32.210 --> 00:30:34.900 named Alex Groza. Groza. Is he related to the 00:30:34.900 --> 00:30:37.700 NFL kicker Lou Groza? That's his brother. But 00:30:37.700 --> 00:30:39.740 Alex Groza was a basketball phenom at Kentucky. 00:30:39.940 --> 00:30:42.559 He won the unofficial rookie of the year in 1949 00:30:42.559 --> 00:30:45.299 -50 for the Indianapolis Olympians. He was an 00:30:45.299 --> 00:30:47.180 all -star. He was a stud. But then the scandal 00:30:47.180 --> 00:30:49.279 broke. The scandal broke, and he was banned from 00:30:49.279 --> 00:30:52.180 the NBA for life. So the NBA just scrubbed his 00:30:52.180 --> 00:30:54.940 award. and the awards around it, to avoid the 00:30:54.940 --> 00:30:57.400 association with the scandal. That's essentially 00:30:57.400 --> 00:30:59.480 what happened. They wanted a clean slate. So 00:30:59.480 --> 00:31:01.859 Don Meineke became the official first winner 00:31:01.859 --> 00:31:04.799 because he was safely post -scandal. So who else 00:31:04.799 --> 00:31:07.960 got erased from history? In 1947 -48, it was 00:31:07.960 --> 00:31:10.000 a guy named Paul Hoffman of the Baltimore Bullets. 00:31:10.339 --> 00:31:14.599 In 1948 -49, it was Howie Shannon. And in 1950 00:31:14.599 --> 00:31:17.299 -51, it was Paul Arizon. Wait a minute. Paul 00:31:17.299 --> 00:31:19.980 Arizon is a Hall of Famer. Pitchin' Paul. He 00:31:19.980 --> 00:31:22.230 is. He's one of the 50 greatest players of all 00:31:22.230 --> 00:31:24.869 time. But the NBA does not officially recognize 00:31:24.869 --> 00:31:27.609 his Rookie of the Year award because it falls 00:31:27.609 --> 00:31:29.910 into that lost era. That feels like a clerical 00:31:29.910 --> 00:31:32.009 crime against basketball history. And the weirdest 00:31:32.009 --> 00:31:34.089 one of all is the year right before the official 00:31:34.089 --> 00:31:38.440 start, 1951 -52. There was actually a tie between 00:31:38.440 --> 00:31:41.039 two players, Bill Tosheff and Mel Hutchins. A 00:31:41.039 --> 00:31:43.440 lost tie. A lost tie. And because the NBA doesn't 00:31:43.440 --> 00:31:45.680 recognize this era, Bill Tosheff spent years, 00:31:45.900 --> 00:31:48.680 I mean decades, actually lobbying the lead for 00:31:48.680 --> 00:31:50.859 recognition. Lobbying for what exactly? Just 00:31:50.859 --> 00:31:53.900 the honor. For recognition and also for pension 00:31:53.900 --> 00:31:58.579 benefits for the pre -1965ers. He was technically... 00:31:58.910 --> 00:32:00.750 a co -rookie of the year that the league had 00:32:00.750 --> 00:32:03.589 just decided to forget existed. He finally got 00:32:03.589 --> 00:32:06.369 the league to acknowledge those pre -1953 years 00:32:06.369 --> 00:32:09.109 in that encyclopedia, but they still aren't on 00:32:09.109 --> 00:32:11.750 the official trophy list you'll see on NBA .com. 00:32:12.170 --> 00:32:15.430 Just as for Bill Toscheff, it's just fascinating 00:32:15.430 --> 00:32:17.890 how sports history can be curated like that. 00:32:17.950 --> 00:32:21.130 Just snip, and those five years are gone. It 00:32:21.130 --> 00:32:23.789 is. If you look at the official site today, Don 00:32:23.789 --> 00:32:26.190 Meineke is the genesis point. Everything that 00:32:26.190 --> 00:32:28.599 came before is just myth. Right. Let's bust a 00:32:28.599 --> 00:32:30.359 myth that actually exists in the present day. 00:32:30.680 --> 00:32:33.000 The myth of the number one pick. The big one. 00:32:33.619 --> 00:32:35.799 The assumption is simple. The worst team gets 00:32:35.799 --> 00:32:37.740 the best player in the draft. The number one 00:32:37.740 --> 00:32:39.940 pick. So that player should win Rookie of the 00:32:39.940 --> 00:32:42.579 Year. It makes perfect logical sense. You are 00:32:42.579 --> 00:32:45.160 the best prospect. You go to a bad team that 00:32:45.160 --> 00:32:47.039 needs you to play big minutes and score a lot 00:32:47.039 --> 00:32:49.140 of points. But the data just doesn't support 00:32:49.140 --> 00:32:52.380 it as a guarantee. Not even close. Only 22 winners 00:32:52.380 --> 00:32:54.220 of the Rookie of the Year award were actually 00:32:54.220 --> 00:32:58.069 drafted first overall. Only 22. That seems incredibly 00:32:58.069 --> 00:33:00.549 low. That's what, like a 30 % hit rate over the 00:33:00.549 --> 00:33:02.650 history of the award? It means that being picked 00:33:02.650 --> 00:33:06.170 first is not a golden ticket. In fact, it often 00:33:06.170 --> 00:33:08.809 means you're going to a dysfunctional organization 00:33:08.809 --> 00:33:11.490 that might not know how to develop you. Or the 00:33:11.490 --> 00:33:13.769 pressure is just too immense. So that means we 00:33:13.769 --> 00:33:16.509 have some massive steals on this list. Guys who 00:33:16.509 --> 00:33:19.390 were drafted way later but came in and just outplayed 00:33:19.390 --> 00:33:21.430 all the blue chippers. The biggest steal in the 00:33:21.430 --> 00:33:24.029 history of the award. by pure draft position 00:33:24.029 --> 00:33:28.569 has to be Woody Salisbury. The 1957 -58 winner. 00:33:28.690 --> 00:33:31.750 He was drafted 60th overall. 60th. That's literally 00:33:31.750 --> 00:33:34.490 the last pick of the draft in modern terms. Mr. 00:33:34.589 --> 00:33:38.369 Irrelevant. How does a 60th pick win Rookie of 00:33:38.369 --> 00:33:40.450 the Year? It was a very different era. Fewer 00:33:40.450 --> 00:33:43.190 teams, a smaller league, but still. Yeah. It's 00:33:43.190 --> 00:33:45.289 remarkable. He came out of Texas Southern, a 00:33:45.289 --> 00:33:47.509 historically black college. He played for the 00:33:47.509 --> 00:33:49.509 Philadelphia Warriors alongside Paul Arizon. 00:33:49.589 --> 00:33:52.210 He was just this tough, defensive -minded forward 00:33:52.210 --> 00:33:54.210 who outworked everyone. He averaged about 12 00:33:54.210 --> 00:33:56.690 points and 10 rebounds. That is just an inspiring 00:33:56.690 --> 00:33:59.289 story. Who else is on that list of steals? More 00:33:59.289 --> 00:34:01.630 recently, and a great example, is Malcolm Brogdon 00:34:01.630 --> 00:34:04.470 into a 16 -17. He was a second -round pick, 36 00:34:04.470 --> 00:34:06.990 overall, out of Virginia. I remember that race. 00:34:07.049 --> 00:34:10.039 He was so steady, so mature. They called him 00:34:10.039 --> 00:34:11.880 the president. And while all the high lottery 00:34:11.880 --> 00:34:14.179 picks from that class were either struggling 00:34:14.179 --> 00:34:17.059 with inefficiency or injured, that was the year 00:34:17.059 --> 00:34:20.400 Ben Simmons missed. Brogdon just played solid, 00:34:20.400 --> 00:34:23.280 fundamental basketball for a good Milwaukee Bucks 00:34:23.280 --> 00:34:26.300 team. He was efficient. He shot 40 % from three. 00:34:26.579 --> 00:34:29.860 He wasn't flashy, but he was undeniably the best 00:34:29.860 --> 00:34:31.800 rookie who played that year. And what about Mark 00:34:31.800 --> 00:34:34.920 Jackson? Mark Jackson was drafted 18th in 1987. 00:34:35.659 --> 00:34:38.739 So not a top lottery pick. But he went to his 00:34:38.739 --> 00:34:41.199 hometown New York Knicks and immediately started 00:34:41.199 --> 00:34:43.659 dropping assists like a seasoned veteran. He 00:34:43.659 --> 00:34:45.800 averaged over 10 assists a game and beat out 00:34:45.800 --> 00:34:47.840 guys like David Robinson's teammate Kenny Smith 00:34:47.840 --> 00:34:50.599 to win it. It just proved that fit and opportunity 00:34:50.599 --> 00:34:52.820 matter so, so much. You can be the number one 00:34:52.820 --> 00:34:54.239 pick, but if you're stuck behind an established 00:34:54.239 --> 00:34:55.920 veteran or the coach just doesn't trust you, 00:34:56.019 --> 00:34:57.800 you're not going to get the stats you need to 00:34:57.800 --> 00:35:00.079 win. Exactly. Opportunity is the biggest variable 00:35:00.079 --> 00:35:02.619 for any rookie. You need the minutes. You need 00:35:02.619 --> 00:35:05.199 the green light. I want to do a quick nod to 00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:07.960 the geography of talent here. We talked a lot 00:35:07.960 --> 00:35:10.480 about the international wave, but for the U .S. 00:35:10.480 --> 00:35:13.679 colleges, who runs the ROI factory? It's the 00:35:13.679 --> 00:35:15.900 Blue Bloods, as you'd probably expect. Duke has 00:35:15.900 --> 00:35:17.820 to be high on the list. Duke has a very strong 00:35:17.820 --> 00:35:20.940 list. Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Kyrie Irving, 00:35:21.099 --> 00:35:24.559 and most recently, Paolo Banchero. Okay. What 00:35:24.559 --> 00:35:27.440 about North Carolina? UNC has a very prestigious 00:35:27.440 --> 00:35:30.380 list as well. You've got Bob McAdoo, Walter Davis, 00:35:30.619 --> 00:35:33.679 Phil Ford, Vince Carter. And, of course, Michael 00:35:33.679 --> 00:35:36.309 Jordan. Can't forget MJ. Any other school that 00:35:36.309 --> 00:35:39.550 stands out? LSU. Louisiana State actually punches 00:35:39.550 --> 00:35:41.769 way above its weight class here. They had Bob 00:35:41.769 --> 00:35:44.030 Pettit way back in the day, then Shaquille O 00:35:44.030 --> 00:35:46.269 'Neal, and Ben Simmons played his one year of 00:35:46.269 --> 00:35:48.630 college there. It's interesting how certain schools 00:35:48.630 --> 00:35:51.510 just seem to prepare guys for the pro game better. 00:35:51.650 --> 00:35:53.510 Or maybe they just get to recruit the guys who 00:35:53.510 --> 00:35:55.190 are already ready. It's a little bit of both. 00:35:55.269 --> 00:35:58.349 But the overall trend, as we discussed, is definitely 00:35:58.349 --> 00:36:00.610 shifting away from the college program player 00:36:00.610 --> 00:36:03.210 and more toward that individual, often international, 00:36:03.409 --> 00:36:05.920 talent. So we've unpacked the whole history, 00:36:06.139 --> 00:36:08.099 the weird voting math, the forgotten winners, 00:36:08.300 --> 00:36:10.139 the red shirts, and the international revolution. 00:36:10.739 --> 00:36:13.260 When you take a step back and look at this entire 00:36:13.260 --> 00:36:17.039 timeline, from Don Meineke in 53 to Stefan Kassel 00:36:17.039 --> 00:36:19.579 today, what is the big takeaway for you now? 00:36:19.739 --> 00:36:22.320 I think the award acts as a perfect year -by 00:36:22.320 --> 00:36:25.659 -year snapshot of basketball's evolution. In 00:36:25.659 --> 00:36:27.940 the 60s and 70s, you just see the complete and 00:36:27.940 --> 00:36:30.340 total dominance of the center. Wilt, Kareem. 00:36:30.570 --> 00:36:33.130 Willis Reed, Dave Cowens, the big man was the 00:36:33.130 --> 00:36:34.510 only thing that mattered. And then the shift 00:36:34.510 --> 00:36:36.889 happens. Then you get to the 80s and 90s, and 00:36:36.889 --> 00:36:39.489 you see the rise of the superstar wing and guard, 00:36:39.690 --> 00:36:42.650 Jordan, Iverson, Vince Carter, and later LeBron. 00:36:43.170 --> 00:36:45.650 The game literally moved from the paint to the 00:36:45.650 --> 00:36:48.429 perimeter. And now, what era are we in now? Now 00:36:48.429 --> 00:36:51.190 we are firmly in the era of the unicorn. Wemba 00:36:51.190 --> 00:36:54.530 Nyama, Pella Banchero, Luka Donicic, these positionalists, 00:36:54.550 --> 00:36:56.969 incredibly skilled, large human beings who can 00:36:56.969 --> 00:36:58.909 do literally everything on the court. The Rookie 00:36:58.909 --> 00:37:00.710 of the Year winners tell the story of how the 00:37:00.710 --> 00:37:02.869 game is played and how it has changed. It's amazing. 00:37:03.050 --> 00:37:05.619 And looking at the trophy... The Wilt Chamberlain 00:37:05.619 --> 00:37:07.820 trophy, it really does feel like we've come full 00:37:07.820 --> 00:37:11.000 circle. We're honoring the most dominant physical 00:37:11.000 --> 00:37:13.679 force in the history of the game while we're 00:37:13.679 --> 00:37:17.480 welcoming this new generation of physical marvels. 00:37:17.480 --> 00:37:19.320 And honestly, with the way these international 00:37:19.320 --> 00:37:21.719 players are coming into the league now, with 00:37:21.719 --> 00:37:25.340 years of pro experience already, it raises a 00:37:25.340 --> 00:37:27.539 final provocative thought for me. What's that? 00:37:27.699 --> 00:37:30.400 Is the very definition of a rookie fundamentally 00:37:30.400 --> 00:37:33.639 changing? When Larry Bird won this award, he 00:37:33.639 --> 00:37:36.119 was a 22 year old senior from college. He was 00:37:36.119 --> 00:37:39.460 a man. When LeBron won, he was an 18 year old 00:37:39.460 --> 00:37:41.579 kid straight out of high school. Two totally 00:37:41.579 --> 00:37:43.760 different kinds of rookies. Completely. And now. 00:37:44.510 --> 00:37:46.909 We have guys like Luka and Lamello who have been 00:37:46.909 --> 00:37:48.550 earning professional paychecks since they were 00:37:48.550 --> 00:37:50.469 16. It's a different kind of rookie, a different 00:37:50.469 --> 00:37:53.170 level of preparation. It is. And as the global 00:37:53.170 --> 00:37:56.510 game continues to expand and develop, that gap 00:37:56.510 --> 00:37:59.030 between amateur and pro is just going to keep 00:37:59.030 --> 00:38:01.289 shrinking. The next Wilt Chamberlain might be 00:38:01.289 --> 00:38:03.369 playing professionally at age 15 somewhere in 00:38:03.369 --> 00:38:05.670 Europe or Africa right now, and we just don't 00:38:05.670 --> 00:38:08.590 know it yet. That is a both terrifying and incredibly 00:38:08.590 --> 00:38:11.829 exciting thought. The future is definitely here. 00:38:12.050 --> 00:38:14.650 This has been an absolute blast unpacking all 00:38:14.650 --> 00:38:16.710 this Rookie of the Year history. It's always 00:38:16.710 --> 00:38:18.610 a pleasure to look at the numbers and the stories 00:38:18.610 --> 00:38:20.570 behind them. And to you listening, thanks for 00:38:20.570 --> 00:38:23.369 diving deep with us. Whether you're a rookie 00:38:23.369 --> 00:38:26.269 listener or a veteran subscriber, we really appreciate 00:38:26.269 --> 00:38:29.070 you. We'll see you on the next deep dive. Take 00:38:29.070 --> 00:38:29.469 care, everyone.