WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.339 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today we are putting 00:00:02.339 --> 00:00:04.960 aside, you know, the day -to -day noise of the 00:00:04.960 --> 00:00:07.059 trade deadlines and the all -star festivities, 00:00:07.099 --> 00:00:10.660 and we're looking at something a bit more sinister. 00:00:11.199 --> 00:00:13.240 Sinister is a strong word, but when you look 00:00:13.240 --> 00:00:15.279 at the mechanics of what we are about to discuss, 00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:17.800 it might be the only word that fits. And we're 00:00:17.800 --> 00:00:19.699 talking about the NBA playoffs. But I want to 00:00:19.699 --> 00:00:21.820 be clear right off the bat, if you are tuning 00:00:21.820 --> 00:00:24.460 in expecting a simple who is going to win in 00:00:24.460 --> 00:00:28.010 June prediction show, You are in the wrong place. 00:00:28.089 --> 00:00:30.149 Not what this is. We aren't doing bracketology. 00:00:30.410 --> 00:00:32.929 We are doing an autopsy of the system itself. 00:00:33.390 --> 00:00:35.630 We are looking at this two -month -long torture 00:00:35.630 --> 00:00:37.950 chamber that the league has constructed to break 00:00:37.950 --> 00:00:40.549 teams down physically and mentally. It really 00:00:40.549 --> 00:00:42.409 is a machine. We think of it as a tournament, 00:00:42.509 --> 00:00:44.729 but it's actually a nutrition model. It is designed 00:00:44.729 --> 00:00:47.310 to filter out the lucky, the frail, and the merely 00:00:47.310 --> 00:00:51.250 good until only the absolute most adaptable organism 00:00:51.250 --> 00:00:54.710 is left standing. And the timing for this conversation 00:00:54.710 --> 00:00:58.359 couldn't be better. It is February 18th, 2026. 00:00:58.520 --> 00:01:00.280 The all -star break is in the rearview mirror. 00:01:00.600 --> 00:01:04.299 We are staring down the barrel of the 2026 postseason. 00:01:04.439 --> 00:01:06.840 And quite frankly, I am still recovering from 00:01:06.840 --> 00:01:09.400 the absolute insanity of last year. The 2025 00:01:09.400 --> 00:01:12.959 playoffs. The 2025 playoffs broke my brain a 00:01:12.959 --> 00:01:15.219 little bit. We saw things statistically that 00:01:15.219 --> 00:01:17.659 shouldn't happen. We saw a 64 -win Cleveland 00:01:17.659 --> 00:01:20.480 team meltdown. We saw the thunder finally ascend. 00:01:21.219 --> 00:01:23.219 And it made me realize that I don't think we 00:01:23.219 --> 00:01:24.859 talk enough about how the format dictates the 00:01:24.859 --> 00:01:27.640 result. Right. We just watch the games. But the 00:01:27.640 --> 00:01:29.900 rules of engagement, the literal math of the 00:01:29.900 --> 00:01:32.120 bracket, change everything. It's the perfect 00:01:32.120 --> 00:01:34.340 time to peel back the layers because the system 00:01:34.340 --> 00:01:37.060 we are watching starting in April 2026, this 00:01:37.060 --> 00:01:40.299 high stakes, globally televised, multi -platform 00:01:40.299 --> 00:01:42.340 spectacle didn't just fall out of the sky. It 00:01:42.340 --> 00:01:45.420 is a Frankenstein's monster of 80 years of tinkering. 00:01:45.459 --> 00:01:48.120 It's the result of weird experiments in the 1950s, 00:01:48.120 --> 00:01:50.799 massive controversies in the 2000s, and a constant 00:01:50.799 --> 00:01:53.530 battle between fairness and entertainment. So 00:01:53.530 --> 00:01:55.790 that is the mission. We are going to decode the 00:01:55.790 --> 00:01:58.170 gauntlet. We're going to look at the hidden mechanics 00:01:58.170 --> 00:02:01.430 of the bracket, the play -in era that has totally 00:02:01.430 --> 00:02:04.909 changed the value of the regular season and the 00:02:04.909 --> 00:02:07.689 history of the upsets that defied logic. And 00:02:07.689 --> 00:02:09.530 we have to talk about the media shift because 00:02:09.530 --> 00:02:12.469 starting in two months, the way you, I, and everyone 00:02:12.469 --> 00:02:15.169 listening watches these games is changing fundamentally 00:02:15.169 --> 00:02:17.389 with the new broadcast deal. Oh, absolutely. 00:02:17.650 --> 00:02:20.750 The era of the regional sports network is officially 00:02:20.750 --> 00:02:23.960 dead and buried. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. 00:02:24.580 --> 00:02:26.680 Let's start with the structure. Section one, 00:02:26.819 --> 00:02:29.860 the modern gauntlet. Let's do it. To the casual 00:02:29.860 --> 00:02:32.560 observer, the NBA playoffs are just the best 00:02:32.560 --> 00:02:34.680 teams playing basketball. Yeah. But when you 00:02:34.680 --> 00:02:37.340 actually lay out the volume, it is staggering. 00:02:37.460 --> 00:02:40.240 It is a war of attrition. You have 16 teams in 00:02:40.240 --> 00:02:42.349 the main bracket. Eight from the East, eight 00:02:42.349 --> 00:02:45.490 from the West. 16 teams. Four rounds. Every single 00:02:45.490 --> 00:02:48.210 round is a best of seven series. That means to 00:02:48.210 --> 00:02:50.050 hoist the Larry O 'Brien trophy, you have to 00:02:50.050 --> 00:02:52.530 win 16 games against the highest level of competition 00:02:52.530 --> 00:02:54.729 in the world. And you could play as many as 28 00:02:54.729 --> 00:02:57.509 games to do it. Theoretically, yes. If every 00:02:57.509 --> 00:02:59.949 series goes seven games, you are playing a third 00:02:59.949 --> 00:03:02.069 of a regular season after the regular season 00:03:02.069 --> 00:03:04.449 ends. Just think about that. After playing 82 00:03:04.449 --> 00:03:06.930 games, you might have another 28 to go. The wear 00:03:06.930 --> 00:03:09.169 and tear is just baked into the design. It's 00:03:09.169 --> 00:03:11.759 the point of the design. Everyone knows it's 00:03:11.759 --> 00:03:14.319 a best of seven. But I want to drill down on 00:03:14.319 --> 00:03:16.419 the format of those seven games. Because this 00:03:16.419 --> 00:03:18.840 is something the casual fan glosses over, but 00:03:18.840 --> 00:03:21.840 the coaches obsess over. It's the 2 -2 -1 -1 00:03:21.840 --> 00:03:24.800 -1 format. This is critical. For years, specifically 00:03:24.800 --> 00:03:28.060 in the finals, the NBA used a 2 -3 -2 format 00:03:28.060 --> 00:03:30.539 to save on travel. Right. I remember that. You'd 00:03:30.539 --> 00:03:32.580 play two at home, then three on the road, then 00:03:32.580 --> 00:03:34.939 two back at home if needed. But they scrapped 00:03:34.939 --> 00:03:38.139 that in 2014 and went back to 2 -2 -1 -1 -1 for 00:03:38.139 --> 00:03:40.060 everything. So what does that mean in plain English? 00:03:40.539 --> 00:03:43.319 The higher seed hosts games one and two. The 00:03:43.319 --> 00:03:45.860 lower seed hosts three and four. Then, if necessary, 00:03:46.099 --> 00:03:48.340 it alternates. Game five at the higher seed, 00:03:48.500 --> 00:03:51.060 game six at the lower, game seven back at the 00:03:51.060 --> 00:03:53.719 higher. Why does this specific order matter so 00:03:53.719 --> 00:03:56.009 much? Is it just about that game seven? Game 00:03:56.009 --> 00:03:57.990 seven is the headline, sure. Everyone talks about 00:03:57.990 --> 00:04:00.090 home court for game seven. But the real strategic 00:04:00.090 --> 00:04:03.090 pivot point is game five. Game five, why? In 00:04:03.090 --> 00:04:05.389 a best of seven series, when the series is tied 00:04:05.389 --> 00:04:08.789 2 -2, the winner of game five wins the series 00:04:08.789 --> 00:04:12.530 something like 82 % of the time. It's an insane 00:04:12.530 --> 00:04:15.050 historical advantage. The pivot game. Exactly. 00:04:15.569 --> 00:04:18.970 Under the old 2 -3 -2 format. The lower seed, 00:04:19.230 --> 00:04:23.250 the worst team, was hosting that crucial game 00:04:23.250 --> 00:04:25.810 five. It gave them a disproportionate advantage. 00:04:26.230 --> 00:04:28.029 So the team that fought all year for the better 00:04:28.029 --> 00:04:29.889 record was actually at a disadvantage in the 00:04:29.889 --> 00:04:31.709 most important game of the series. Precisely. 00:04:31.709 --> 00:04:34.490 It was a flaw in the logic. By switching to 2 00:04:34.490 --> 00:04:37.550 -2 -1 -1 -1, the league ensured that the team 00:04:37.550 --> 00:04:39.689 with the better regular season record gets to 00:04:39.689 --> 00:04:41.889 host the most important swing game of the series. 00:04:42.170 --> 00:04:44.129 So it's an attempt to make the regular season 00:04:44.129 --> 00:04:46.610 actually mean something. Because otherwise, if 00:04:46.610 --> 00:04:48.329 you lose home court advantage effectively by 00:04:48.329 --> 00:04:51.149 game five, why burn yourself out in March chasing 00:04:51.149 --> 00:04:54.399 wins? Exactly. Home court advantage isn't just 00:04:54.399 --> 00:04:56.540 about sleeping in your own bed, though that helps. 00:04:56.720 --> 00:04:58.959 It's about the whistle. It's about your role 00:04:58.959 --> 00:05:01.519 players shooting better at home and specifically 00:05:01.519 --> 00:05:04.459 controlling the environment for game one, game 00:05:04.459 --> 00:05:06.899 two, game five and game seven. You earn that. 00:05:07.160 --> 00:05:10.800 But here's where it gets messy. We say higher 00:05:10.800 --> 00:05:13.139 seed gets the advantage. That's usually determined 00:05:13.139 --> 00:05:17.129 by record. But every April without fail. we end 00:05:17.129 --> 00:05:19.689 up with a logjam. I feel like last year in the 00:05:19.689 --> 00:05:22.310 West, specifically, there were three teams tied 00:05:22.310 --> 00:05:25.750 with 50 wins on the final day. How do they actually 00:05:25.750 --> 00:05:28.149 untangle that knot? It is a hierarchy of sorrow 00:05:28.149 --> 00:05:30.350 for the team that loses the tiebreaker. It gets 00:05:30.350 --> 00:05:32.430 very granular. Okay, walk me through it. The 00:05:32.430 --> 00:05:34.389 first tiebreaker is simple, head -to -head winning 00:05:34.389 --> 00:05:36.329 percentage. Which makes those random Tuesday 00:05:36.329 --> 00:05:38.529 night games in November actually matter. They 00:05:38.529 --> 00:05:40.750 matter immensely. If the Mavericks and the Suns 00:05:40.750 --> 00:05:43.110 finish with the same record, but the Suns beat 00:05:43.110 --> 00:05:45.829 the Mavs 3 -1 in the season series, Phoenix gets 00:05:45.829 --> 00:05:48.089 the seed. This is why you see teams fighting 00:05:48.089 --> 00:05:50.829 so hard in seemingly meaningless games late in 00:05:50.829 --> 00:05:53.029 the year. They are securing the tiebreaker. Okay, 00:05:53.089 --> 00:05:55.389 but what if they split the season series 2 -2? 00:05:55.490 --> 00:05:57.769 That happens all the time. Then it goes to division 00:05:57.769 --> 00:06:00.089 winner. If one team won their division and the 00:06:00.089 --> 00:06:02.110 other didn't, the division winner gets the nod. 00:06:02.350 --> 00:06:04.709 So winning the division still has some small 00:06:04.709 --> 00:06:06.910 benefit, even if it doesn't guarantee you a top 00:06:06.910 --> 00:06:09.790 seed anymore. A very small one, yes. A tiebreaker. 00:06:10.129 --> 00:06:12.870 Now, if they're in the same division, it goes 00:06:12.870 --> 00:06:16.189 to division record. Who had the better winning 00:06:16.189 --> 00:06:18.329 percentage against their immediate neighbors? 00:06:18.430 --> 00:06:20.829 Okay, so we're getting deeper. If that is tied, 00:06:21.089 --> 00:06:23.850 we go to conference record. Who was better against 00:06:23.850 --> 00:06:28.209 the West or against the East? Then winning percentage 00:06:28.209 --> 00:06:30.189 against playoff teams in your own conference. 00:06:30.490 --> 00:06:32.629 And then winning percentage against playoff teams 00:06:32.629 --> 00:06:34.810 in the other conference. Wow. It just keeps going. 00:06:34.970 --> 00:06:37.449 And then if we are truly in the twilight zone 00:06:37.449 --> 00:06:40.410 and two teams are identical twins in every metric. 00:06:40.629 --> 00:06:42.589 Don't tell me it's a coin flip. Please don't 00:06:42.589 --> 00:06:44.670 tell me that. It is effectively a coin flip. 00:06:44.689 --> 00:06:47.290 It's technically point differential total points 00:06:47.290 --> 00:06:49.970 scored minus total points allowed across the 00:06:49.970 --> 00:06:51.769 whole season. Okay. That's at least a skill -based 00:06:51.769 --> 00:06:55.040 metric. It is. But if that is tied. Yes, they 00:06:55.040 --> 00:06:57.100 draw lots. It comes down to a random drawing. 00:06:57.319 --> 00:07:01.560 Can you imagine? 82 games, countless hours on 00:07:01.560 --> 00:07:04.459 planes and gyms, and the difference between hosting 00:07:04.459 --> 00:07:07.800 Game 7 or traveling for Game 7 coming down to 00:07:07.800 --> 00:07:10.220 a name drawn out of a hat. It hasn't happened 00:07:10.220 --> 00:07:12.560 for a major seed in the modern era, but the rule 00:07:12.560 --> 00:07:15.220 is written in ink. It's the break glass in case 00:07:15.220 --> 00:07:18.180 of emergency protocol. That is wild. Okay, so 00:07:18.180 --> 00:07:20.379 that handles the one through six seeds. But we 00:07:20.379 --> 00:07:22.910 have to talk about the appetizer. The play -in 00:07:22.910 --> 00:07:25.250 tournament. The best thing the NBA has done in 00:07:25.250 --> 00:07:28.050 20 years, hands down. You think so? Because I 00:07:28.050 --> 00:07:30.550 still hear purists complaining that it devalues 00:07:30.550 --> 00:07:33.350 the regular season. Why should a 7th seed who 00:07:33.350 --> 00:07:35.629 won 45 games have to play for their life against 00:07:35.629 --> 00:07:38.370 a 10th seed who won 35 games? The purists are 00:07:38.370 --> 00:07:40.310 missing the forest for the trees. I get the argument. 00:07:40.449 --> 00:07:42.889 I do. But look at what it replaced. What's that? 00:07:43.170 --> 00:07:45.649 Before the play -in, what did teams seeded 9, 00:07:45.850 --> 00:07:48.490 10, 11 do for the last month of the season? Tank. 00:07:48.920 --> 00:07:51.339 They benched their starters and lost on purpose. 00:07:51.720 --> 00:07:54.519 Exactly. They would lose on purpose to get a 00:07:54.519 --> 00:07:56.839 better draft pick. You had unwatchable basketball 00:07:56.839 --> 00:07:59.879 for a month. Now, the 10th seed has a pulse. 00:08:00.319 --> 00:08:02.720 It keeps 20 teams competitive until the final 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:05.279 week of the season. The fan engagement is through 00:08:05.279 --> 00:08:08.120 the roof. For the listener who maybe tunes out 00:08:08.120 --> 00:08:10.860 until the finals, walk us through the mechanics 00:08:10.860 --> 00:08:13.439 because it is a little confusing. It's a double 00:08:13.439 --> 00:08:15.819 elimination bracket for the top tier and single 00:08:15.819 --> 00:08:18.740 elimination for the bottom. Very simple. Seeds 00:08:18.740 --> 00:08:21.160 seven and eight play each other. The winner is 00:08:21.160 --> 00:08:23.620 the seventh seed. Boom. They are in. They get 00:08:23.620 --> 00:08:26.220 to go home and rest. And the loser of that game. 00:08:26.360 --> 00:08:28.420 The loser isn't out. They drop down. They get 00:08:28.420 --> 00:08:31.529 a second chance. Meanwhile. The ninth seed plays 00:08:31.529 --> 00:08:34.309 the tenth seed. And this is the danger zone. 00:08:34.429 --> 00:08:36.470 This is the terrifying game. Loser goes home 00:08:36.470 --> 00:08:39.370 immediately. Season over. No second chances. 00:08:39.769 --> 00:08:42.350 The winner of that 9 -10 game then plays the 00:08:42.350 --> 00:08:44.929 loser of the 78 game for the final spot, the 00:08:44.929 --> 00:08:46.870 eighth seed. So if you are the seventh seed, 00:08:46.950 --> 00:08:49.169 you have two chances to win one game. If you 00:08:49.169 --> 00:08:50.789 are the tenth seed, you have to win two games 00:08:50.789 --> 00:08:53.389 in a row on the road just to get the right to 00:08:53.389 --> 00:08:55.870 be slaughtered by the first seed. Correct. But 00:08:55.870 --> 00:08:58.289 slaughtered is a strong word because as we've 00:08:58.289 --> 00:09:00.690 seen, these play -in teams are battle tested. 00:09:00.909 --> 00:09:02.730 That's a good point. They enter the first round 00:09:02.730 --> 00:09:05.289 in rhythm, having just played two high stakes, 00:09:05.409 --> 00:09:08.330 high intensity games. While the first seed has 00:09:08.330 --> 00:09:10.289 been sitting on their couch for a week, getting 00:09:10.289 --> 00:09:12.750 massages and maybe losing their edge. That's 00:09:12.750 --> 00:09:15.570 the classic rust versus rest argument. And we 00:09:15.570 --> 00:09:19.909 saw it perfectly last season. The 2024 -25 Miami 00:09:19.909 --> 00:09:23.029 Heat. The zombie heat part two. You can't kill 00:09:23.029 --> 00:09:26.440 them. They finished 10th. By all rights, a mediocre 00:09:26.440 --> 00:09:28.399 season. They should have been booking tee times. 00:09:28.899 --> 00:09:31.320 Instead, they go into the play -in. They beat 00:09:31.320 --> 00:09:33.440 the Bulls, the ninth seed. Then they go to Atlanta 00:09:33.440 --> 00:09:36.000 and beat the Hawks, the eighth seed, in overtime. 00:09:36.340 --> 00:09:38.240 And suddenly they're in the playoffs. And not 00:09:38.240 --> 00:09:40.940 just in, they were dangerous. They took the Celtics 00:09:40.940 --> 00:09:42.919 to six games in the first round because they 00:09:42.919 --> 00:09:44.539 were already in playoff mode. The Celtics were 00:09:44.539 --> 00:09:47.019 still, you know, warming up. It changes the psychology. 00:09:47.100 --> 00:09:49.100 It turns the end of the season into a desperate 00:09:49.100 --> 00:09:52.639 scramble. But let's zoom out. Because this streamlined, 00:09:52.779 --> 00:09:56.620 high -stakes machine we have in 2026, it is a 00:09:56.620 --> 00:09:58.960 far cry from where we started. Oh, the early 00:09:58.960 --> 00:10:02.200 days were the Wild West. It's almost unrecognizable. 00:10:02.399 --> 00:10:05.460 Let's move to Section 2. From chaos to order. 00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:09.259 Because I was reading up on the 1947 BAA playoffs, 00:10:09.580 --> 00:10:12.700 the precursor to the NBA, and I genuinely thought 00:10:12.700 --> 00:10:15.139 it was a typo. It reads like someone who doesn't 00:10:15.139 --> 00:10:17.659 understand sports designed a tournament. It's 00:10:17.659 --> 00:10:20.919 completely counterintuitive. So usually the whole 00:10:20.919 --> 00:10:23.360 point of seeding a tournament is that you want 00:10:23.360 --> 00:10:25.740 your two best teams to meet in the finals. Right. 00:10:25.820 --> 00:10:28.120 You want the crescendo. Right. One versus two, 00:10:28.200 --> 00:10:30.820 the clash of the titans, that's the dream matchup 00:10:30.820 --> 00:10:34.059 for the league, for the fans, for TV. Explain 00:10:34.059 --> 00:10:36.840 to me what they did in 1947. It defies logic. 00:10:36.919 --> 00:10:39.220 They took the two division winners, the two best 00:10:39.220 --> 00:10:40.919 teams in the league, the Washington Capitals 00:10:40.919 --> 00:10:43.419 and the Chicago Stags, and they forced them to 00:10:43.419 --> 00:10:45.240 play each other in the semifinals. Immediately. 00:10:45.710 --> 00:10:47.809 Not the conference finals, the semifinals. Immediately. 00:10:47.909 --> 00:10:50.610 A best of three series. So one of the two best 00:10:50.610 --> 00:10:52.629 teams was guaranteed to go home early. It's like 00:10:52.629 --> 00:10:54.490 having the Super Bowl in the divisional round. 00:10:54.690 --> 00:10:56.889 Okay, that's bad. But what were the other teams 00:10:56.889 --> 00:10:59.830 doing? This is the crazy part. The four runners 00:10:59.830 --> 00:11:02.200 up. the second and third place teams from each 00:11:02.200 --> 00:11:04.919 division were thrown into a separate runner's 00:11:04.919 --> 00:11:07.179 up bracket. A loser's bracket. Sort of. They 00:11:07.179 --> 00:11:09.100 played best of three series against each other. 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:11.419 So you had the mediocre teams playing a full 00:11:11.419 --> 00:11:13.840 tournament on one side while the two best teams 00:11:13.840 --> 00:11:16.259 killed each other on the other side. It was two 00:11:16.259 --> 00:11:18.419 separate tournaments happening at the same time. 00:11:18.580 --> 00:11:21.340 So the winner of the best team series then had 00:11:21.340 --> 00:11:24.059 to play the survivor of the mediocre team bracket 00:11:24.059 --> 00:11:27.320 for the title. Yes. And because the mediocre 00:11:27.320 --> 00:11:29.679 bracket had more teams and more rounds, the winner 00:11:29.679 --> 00:11:31.639 of the best team series had to sit around and 00:11:31.639 --> 00:11:34.600 wait for days, losing their rhythm, getting cold. 00:11:34.720 --> 00:11:36.679 That's unbelievable. The Philadelphia Warriors 00:11:36.679 --> 00:11:38.580 came out of that runner's up bracket and won 00:11:38.580 --> 00:11:40.799 the first championship. It was a system that 00:11:40.799 --> 00:11:42.960 effectively punished you for being too good in 00:11:42.960 --> 00:11:45.080 the regular season. They scrapped it pretty quickly, 00:11:45.100 --> 00:11:48.440 as you can imagine. That is baffling. But then 00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:50.779 they pivoted to something that might be even 00:11:50.779 --> 00:11:55.690 worse in 1954. The round robin. The 1954 experiment. 00:11:56.240 --> 00:11:58.120 This was the brainchild of a league that was 00:11:58.120 --> 00:12:00.240 desperate for ticket sales. They were struggling. 00:12:00.419 --> 00:12:02.259 They thought, hey, elimination games are scary 00:12:02.259 --> 00:12:05.019 for fans. What if we just guarantee everyone 00:12:05.019 --> 00:12:07.840 plays everyone? More games, more tickets. Like 00:12:07.840 --> 00:12:09.980 a group stage in the World Cup? Exactly. Three 00:12:09.980 --> 00:12:12.519 playoff teams in each division. They played a 00:12:12.519 --> 00:12:14.620 double round robin. Everyone played everyone 00:12:14.620 --> 00:12:17.179 else home and away. Four games guaranteed for 00:12:17.179 --> 00:12:20.220 each team. The top two teams from the group advanced 00:12:20.220 --> 00:12:22.059 to the conference finals. I mean, in theory, 00:12:22.100 --> 00:12:24.440 that sounds fair. You get a good sample size, 00:12:24.539 --> 00:12:26.940 you can't get bounced on one bad night. In theory, 00:12:26.960 --> 00:12:30.059 yes. In practice, it was a disaster for integrity. 00:12:30.620 --> 00:12:33.600 Danny Biasone, the owner of the Syracuse Nationals, 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:35.860 and the guy who eventually saved the league by 00:12:35.860 --> 00:12:38.399 inventing the shot clock, hated this format. 00:12:38.580 --> 00:12:41.620 He pointed out the obvious flaw, match fixing. 00:12:41.860 --> 00:12:44.720 Oh. Think about it. If Team A has already won 00:12:44.720 --> 00:12:47.200 enough games to clinch the hashtag one spot, 00:12:47.340 --> 00:12:49.240 and they are playing Team B in the final game, 00:12:49.789 --> 00:12:53.909 and Team B needs a win to knock out Team C, what 00:12:53.909 --> 00:12:56.909 incentive does Team A have to try? None. They'd 00:12:56.909 --> 00:12:59.950 rest their stars. They'd rest their stars. Or 00:12:59.950 --> 00:13:03.049 worse, there were rumors of gentlemen's agreements 00:13:03.049 --> 00:13:06.450 to manipulate who advanced. It created scenarios 00:13:06.450 --> 00:13:09.389 where losing was actually beneficial. So you 00:13:09.389 --> 00:13:11.230 could effectively handpick your opponent for 00:13:11.230 --> 00:13:13.960 the next round. By losing on purpose. Exactly. 00:13:14.039 --> 00:13:16.320 It stripped the competitive fire out of the games. 00:13:16.500 --> 00:13:19.220 The fans hated it because there was no do -or 00:13:19.220 --> 00:13:22.340 -die tension until the very end. The league scrapped 00:13:22.340 --> 00:13:24.720 it after one year and never looked back. Thank 00:13:24.720 --> 00:13:28.360 God. I can't imagine LeBron or Luka playing a 00:13:28.360 --> 00:13:31.539 meaningless round -robin game in May. The discourse 00:13:31.539 --> 00:13:34.179 would be unbearable. It would be unwatchable. 00:13:34.200 --> 00:13:37.340 A total farce. So we move to brackets. But the 00:13:37.340 --> 00:13:38.960 length of this series has always been a debate. 00:13:39.100 --> 00:13:41.120 We are used to best of seven. It feels biblical. 00:13:41.480 --> 00:13:43.659 But for a long time, the first round was a sprint. 00:13:43.879 --> 00:13:45.980 It was a best of three for a while, which is 00:13:45.980 --> 00:13:48.620 just chaos. Then it was a best of five for decades. 00:13:48.759 --> 00:13:51.480 It wasn't until 2003 that the NBA finally made 00:13:51.480 --> 00:13:53.340 the first round of best of seven series. Why 00:13:53.340 --> 00:13:56.799 the change? Was it just money? More games equals 00:13:56.799 --> 00:13:59.740 more TV revenue? I mean, we can't pretend money 00:13:59.740 --> 00:14:01.700 wasn't 90 % of the reason. Of course it was. 00:14:01.860 --> 00:14:04.399 An extra home game for at least eight teams is 00:14:04.399 --> 00:14:07.259 a massive financial windfall. Right. But there 00:14:07.259 --> 00:14:09.740 is a competitive argument, too. In a best -of 00:14:09.740 --> 00:14:13.159 -five series, variance plays a huge role. If 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:15.200 a lower seed gets hot from three -point range 00:14:15.200 --> 00:14:17.519 for two nights, or if the star of the higher 00:14:17.519 --> 00:14:20.379 seed twists an ankle and misses three days, the 00:14:20.379 --> 00:14:23.700 series is over. The upset happens. A whole season's 00:14:23.700 --> 00:14:26.840 work is gone in a flash. So a best -of -seven... 00:14:27.070 --> 00:14:30.210 stabilizes the result. It reduces the fluke factor. 00:14:30.450 --> 00:14:33.009 Correct. It is much, much harder for a worse 00:14:33.009 --> 00:14:35.090 team to beat a better team four times than two 00:14:35.090 --> 00:14:37.809 or three times. It favors depth, coaching adjustments, 00:14:38.129 --> 00:14:41.090 and endurance. It's a truer test of which team 00:14:41.090 --> 00:14:43.669 is actually better. But sometimes the rules create 00:14:43.669 --> 00:14:47.419 unfairness even with seven games. We have to 00:14:47.419 --> 00:14:49.720 talk about 2006. This is the moment that broke 00:14:49.720 --> 00:14:51.820 the seeding model. The Southwest Division disaster. 00:14:52.080 --> 00:14:54.440 A perfect example of unintended consequences. 00:14:54.860 --> 00:14:56.240 Set the scene for us. What was the rule that 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:59.379 caused the problem? Okay, so in 2006, the league 00:14:59.379 --> 00:15:01.559 was set up so that if you won your division, 00:15:01.860 --> 00:15:04.519 you were guaranteed a top three seed. It seemed 00:15:04.519 --> 00:15:06.820 like a nice reward. Hang a banner, get a top 00:15:06.820 --> 00:15:09.159 seed. Sure. Makes sense on the surface. But the 00:15:09.159 --> 00:15:11.580 Southwest Division was historically good that 00:15:11.580 --> 00:15:14.399 year. You had the San Antonio Spurs with Duncan 00:15:14.399 --> 00:15:18.080 Parker Ginobili, and you had the Dallas Mavericks 00:15:18.080 --> 00:15:20.960 with Dirk Nowitzki at his absolute peak. Both 00:15:20.960 --> 00:15:23.700 of them won 60 plus games. They had the two best 00:15:23.700 --> 00:15:25.940 records in the entire Western Conference. So 00:15:25.940 --> 00:15:28.220 in a fair world, they are the one and the two 00:15:28.220 --> 00:15:30.320 seeds. They meet in the conference finals. In 00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:32.960 a fair world, yes. That's the matchup everyone 00:15:32.960 --> 00:15:34.940 wanted to see. But they were in the same division. 00:15:35.139 --> 00:15:37.600 And because San Antonio won the division by a 00:15:37.600 --> 00:15:40.340 hair, they got the hashtag one seed. Dallas, 00:15:40.419 --> 00:15:42.440 despite being the second best team in the league 00:15:42.440 --> 00:15:44.860 by record, couldn't be the hashtag two or hashtag 00:15:44.860 --> 00:15:46.720 three seed because the other division winners, 00:15:46.980 --> 00:15:49.659 Phoenix and Denver. got those spots automatically, 00:15:50.019 --> 00:15:52.539 even with worse records. So Dallas was forced 00:15:52.539 --> 00:15:54.600 down to what, the hashtag four seed? Hashtag 00:15:54.600 --> 00:15:56.159 four seed. And if you know how a bracket works, 00:15:56.360 --> 00:15:59.019 one plays eight, four plays five, and then the 00:15:59.019 --> 00:16:01.220 winners play one plays four in the second round. 00:16:01.379 --> 00:16:04.039 They were on a collision course. Exactly. The 00:16:04.039 --> 00:16:06.679 two titans of the West were on a collision course 00:16:06.679 --> 00:16:08.919 for the semifinals. And that's exactly what happened. 00:16:09.039 --> 00:16:12.340 Spurs versus Mavericks. It was arguably the greatest 00:16:12.340 --> 00:16:14.980 series of the decade. I remember it. It was incredible 00:16:14.980 --> 00:16:17.659 basketball. Game seven went into overtime. Dirk 00:16:17.659 --> 00:16:19.940 Nowitzki making that legendary three -point play. 00:16:20.379 --> 00:16:23.419 Manu Ginobili fouling him. It was legendary stuff. 00:16:23.740 --> 00:16:25.740 But it happened a month too early. It happened 00:16:25.740 --> 00:16:28.519 in the second round. It was the de facto Western 00:16:28.519 --> 00:16:32.379 Conference Finals. The winner, Dallas, then had 00:16:32.379 --> 00:16:34.919 to play the Phoenix Suns in the actual conference 00:16:34.919 --> 00:16:37.360 finals, which felt anticlimactic by comparison. 00:16:37.620 --> 00:16:39.960 The league realized they had punished excellence. 00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:42.559 So they fixed it. By August of that year, they 00:16:42.559 --> 00:16:45.330 changed the rules. seeding is now based strictly 00:16:45.330 --> 00:16:47.889 on record regardless of division winning your 00:16:47.889 --> 00:16:51.190 division is now just a tiebreaker that 2006 series 00:16:51.190 --> 00:16:53.730 directly led to the system we have today it's 00:16:53.730 --> 00:16:56.149 a great example of how the gauntlet isn't static 00:16:56.149 --> 00:16:58.850 the league is constantly patching the software 00:16:58.850 --> 00:17:01.230 when it crashes and usually the crash involves 00:17:01.230 --> 00:17:04.069 a fan base being absolutely furious that's the 00:17:04.069 --> 00:17:06.410 best motivator for change speaking of furious 00:17:06.410 --> 00:17:10.009 fan bases let's pivot to section three the giant 00:17:10.009 --> 00:17:13.710 slayers Because as much as the league tries to 00:17:13.710 --> 00:17:15.670 engineer fairness with best of seven series, 00:17:15.890 --> 00:17:18.930 sometimes the math doesn't work. Sometimes the 00:17:18.930 --> 00:17:20.930 underdog just punches the giant in the mouth. 00:17:20.990 --> 00:17:23.609 The upsets. This is why we watch. It's the hope 00:17:23.609 --> 00:17:25.670 that the impossible can happen. I want to talk 00:17:25.670 --> 00:17:28.250 about the psychology of the upset. Because we 00:17:28.250 --> 00:17:31.150 always say defense wins championships. But when 00:17:31.150 --> 00:17:33.700 an eighth seed beats a first seed. It's usually 00:17:33.700 --> 00:17:37.079 not defense. It's chaos. It's variance. And it's 00:17:37.079 --> 00:17:40.180 matchups. That is the key word. Sometimes a first 00:17:40.180 --> 00:17:42.180 seed is built to beat the other top teams, but 00:17:42.180 --> 00:17:44.420 they have a specific weakness. Maybe they are 00:17:44.420 --> 00:17:46.819 small or they struggle against fast guards. And 00:17:46.819 --> 00:17:48.839 the eighth seed just happens to be the one team 00:17:48.839 --> 00:17:51.420 perfectly constructed to exploit that. It's not 00:17:51.420 --> 00:17:53.700 about being the better team overall. It's about 00:17:53.700 --> 00:17:56.400 being the better team for seven specific games. 00:17:56.660 --> 00:17:59.000 That's it. It's a tactical nuke. Let's run through 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:00.740 the Hall of Fame of eight seeds. The teams that 00:18:00.740 --> 00:18:02.940 shouldn't have won but did. Where do we start? 00:18:03.140 --> 00:18:05.799 The grandfather of them all is the 1994 Denver 00:18:05.799 --> 00:18:09.240 Nuggets. Dikembe Mutombo on the floor, clutching 00:18:09.240 --> 00:18:11.920 the ball, crying. It's one of the most iconic 00:18:11.920 --> 00:18:14.740 images in NBA history. That was back when the 00:18:14.740 --> 00:18:17.740 first round was best of five. The Seattle Supersonics 00:18:17.740 --> 00:18:21.700 had 63 wins. They were a juggernaut. Gary Payton, 00:18:21.839 --> 00:18:23.559 Sean Kemp, they were supposed to walk to the 00:18:23.559 --> 00:18:26.579 finals. And Denver. Denver was 42 -40. They barely 00:18:26.579 --> 00:18:29.500 made the playoffs. Seattle went up 2 -0. It looked 00:18:29.500 --> 00:18:33.720 over. The brooms were out. And? Denver won three 00:18:33.720 --> 00:18:36.880 straight, game five in Seattle. Mutombo had eight 00:18:36.880 --> 00:18:38.759 blocks in that game. It was the first time it 00:18:38.759 --> 00:18:40.880 ever happened. It broke people's understanding 00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:43.200 of the league. It proved that momentum is real. 00:18:43.400 --> 00:18:46.880 Then you have the 1999 Knicks, the lockout year. 00:18:47.039 --> 00:18:49.920 A weird season. 50 games. The Knicks were an 00:18:49.920 --> 00:18:51.740 eight seed. They made it all the way to the finals 00:18:51.740 --> 00:18:53.819 before losing to the Spurs. They were just a 00:18:53.819 --> 00:18:55.900 tough veteran team that got hot at the right 00:18:55.900 --> 00:18:58.359 time. But the big one for the modern era, the 00:18:58.359 --> 00:19:00.539 first in a best of seven, is the, we believe, 00:19:00.579 --> 00:19:03.730 Warriors. Right. 2007. This one feels special 00:19:03.730 --> 00:19:07.089 because the Warriors were, frankly, a weird team. 00:19:07.269 --> 00:19:09.650 They were a chaotic team. Baron Davis, Steven 00:19:09.650 --> 00:19:11.910 Jackson, Matt Barnes, a bunch of guys other teams 00:19:11.910 --> 00:19:13.829 didn't want, but they were coached by Don Nelson. 00:19:14.130 --> 00:19:16.430 Deli ball. And who was the first seed they were 00:19:16.430 --> 00:19:19.869 playing? The 67 -win Dallas Mavericks. Coached 00:19:19.869 --> 00:19:22.819 by Avery Johnson. Don Nelson's former protege, 00:19:22.900 --> 00:19:26.519 the drama. Exactly. Nelson knew exactly how to 00:19:26.519 --> 00:19:28.799 beat the team he used to coach. He knew all their 00:19:28.799 --> 00:19:31.279 plays, all their tendencies. He went small ball 00:19:31.279 --> 00:19:33.720 before it was popular. He put small, quick defenders 00:19:33.720 --> 00:19:36.880 on Dirk Nowitzki and just swarmed him, fronted 00:19:36.880 --> 00:19:38.940 him, never let him get comfortable. And Dirk, 00:19:39.059 --> 00:19:42.480 who was the MVP that year, had a miserable series. 00:19:42.680 --> 00:19:44.779 One of the worst series of his career. The Warriors 00:19:44.779 --> 00:19:46.980 ran them out of the gym. The crowd in Oakland 00:19:46.980 --> 00:19:49.180 was so loud, it felt like the building was shaking. 00:19:49.900 --> 00:19:52.279 That series taught a generation of basketball 00:19:52.279 --> 00:19:55.359 fans that matchups matter more than record. Dallas 00:19:55.359 --> 00:19:58.299 was the better team in a vacuum, but Golden State 00:19:58.299 --> 00:20:00.940 was their kryptonite. Precisely. And then we 00:20:00.940 --> 00:20:02.960 have to talk about the modern era, the zombie 00:20:02.960 --> 00:20:05.920 heat of 2023. This is the ultimate proof of concept 00:20:05.920 --> 00:20:08.400 for the play -in. Miami looked dead in the water. 00:20:08.519 --> 00:20:10.539 They lost their first play -in game to the Hawks. 00:20:10.559 --> 00:20:12.220 They were trailing the Bulls in the second one. 00:20:12.319 --> 00:20:15.559 They barely scrape in as the eighth seed, and 00:20:15.559 --> 00:20:17.940 they face the Milwaukee Bucks, the title favorites. 00:20:18.609 --> 00:20:21.029 Giannis gets hurt in game one, which is a huge 00:20:21.029 --> 00:20:22.950 part of it. You can't ignore that. True, but 00:20:22.950 --> 00:20:24.950 he came back. He came back, but Jimmy Butler 00:20:24.950 --> 00:20:27.329 had already turned into Michael Jordan. He averaged 00:20:27.329 --> 00:20:30.410 37 points in that series, that 56 -point game. 00:20:30.569 --> 00:20:33.230 Yeah. It was just an out -of -body experience. 00:20:33.750 --> 00:20:35.730 It wasn't just him. The Heat shot the lights 00:20:35.730 --> 00:20:38.390 out from three. Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, guys 00:20:38.390 --> 00:20:40.430 you've barely heard of were playing like all 00:20:40.430 --> 00:20:43.170 -stars. They won in five games. It wasn't a fluke. 00:20:43.190 --> 00:20:45.650 They physically beat up the Bucs and out -executed 00:20:45.650 --> 00:20:48.799 them. And that trend is continuing. The lower 00:20:48.799 --> 00:20:51.859 seeds are getting more dangerous. We have to 00:20:51.859 --> 00:20:55.220 talk about the 2025 playoffs just last year. 00:20:55.400 --> 00:20:58.519 The 2025 Golden State Warriors. Another one. 00:20:58.700 --> 00:21:01.779 It feels like history rhyming. You had an aging 00:21:01.779 --> 00:21:04.559 Warriors core Steph Curry in his twilight entering 00:21:04.559 --> 00:21:07.140 as a seventh seed. Everyone said they were too 00:21:07.140 --> 00:21:09.599 old, too slow. The dynasty is dead. The legs 00:21:09.599 --> 00:21:11.559 are gone. We heard it all year. They played the 00:21:11.559 --> 00:21:14.700 Houston Rockets, the second seed. Young, athletic, 00:21:15.079 --> 00:21:18.200 hungry. The up -and -coming team. Everyone picked 00:21:18.200 --> 00:21:19.900 Houston. I picked Houston. It seemed like the 00:21:19.900 --> 00:21:21.900 logical pick. The passing of the torque. Big 00:21:21.900 --> 00:21:24.400 matter. The old guys dragged the young guys into 00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:27.220 the mud. It went seven games. It was ugly. Grind 00:21:27.220 --> 00:21:30.059 it out. Half -court basketball. But in game seven, 00:21:30.220 --> 00:21:32.559 experience mattered. The Rockets panicked. They 00:21:32.559 --> 00:21:34.880 started taking bad shots. The Warriors didn't. 00:21:34.920 --> 00:21:37.240 They just kept running their sets. It was the 00:21:37.240 --> 00:21:39.319 first time a seventh seed beat a second seed 00:21:39.319 --> 00:21:41.779 since... Well, since the Lakers did it two years 00:21:41.779 --> 00:21:44.759 prior in 2023. It really feels like the seed 00:21:44.759 --> 00:21:47.660 number next to the name matters less now than 00:21:47.660 --> 00:21:50.019 it ever has. Is that fair to say? That is the 00:21:50.019 --> 00:21:52.000 big shift. The talent gap between the hashtag 00:21:52.000 --> 00:21:54.240 one seed and the hashtag eight seed used to be 00:21:54.240 --> 00:21:56.819 an ocean. Now, with the way talent is distributed 00:21:56.819 --> 00:21:59.460 around the league, it's a creek. If the hashtag 00:21:59.460 --> 00:22:02.019 one seed sleeps for five minutes, the hashtag 00:22:02.019 --> 00:22:04.119 eight seed will drown them. But if we were talking 00:22:04.119 --> 00:22:07.640 about the hardest road, the team that truly defied 00:22:07.640 --> 00:22:11.380 the gauntlet. It has to be the 1995 Houston Rockets. 00:22:11.420 --> 00:22:13.420 The lowest seed to ever win it all. It's the 00:22:13.420 --> 00:22:15.279 gold standard for underdog runs. They were a 00:22:15.279 --> 00:22:17.400 sixth seed. A sixth seed. Think about what that 00:22:17.400 --> 00:22:19.259 means. They did not have home court advantage 00:22:19.259 --> 00:22:21.960 in any series. Not the first round, not the second, 00:22:22.099 --> 00:22:23.980 not the conference finals, not the NBA finals. 00:22:24.160 --> 00:22:26.380 They started every single series on the road. 00:22:26.500 --> 00:22:28.960 That sounds exhausting, just saying it. You start 00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:31.160 every series needing to steal a game on the road 00:22:31.160 --> 00:22:33.240 just to survive. And look at who they beat. It 00:22:33.240 --> 00:22:35.390 wasn't like they had an easy path. In the first 00:22:35.390 --> 00:22:38.029 round, they beat the Utah Jazz with Stockton 00:22:38.029 --> 00:22:41.190 and Malone, a 60 -win team. In the second round, 00:22:41.250 --> 00:22:43.809 they went down 3 -1 to the Phoenix Suns with 00:22:43.809 --> 00:22:46.809 Charles Barkley, a 59 -win team. They came back 00:22:46.809 --> 00:22:48.890 and won. Unbelievable. In the conference finals, 00:22:49.150 --> 00:22:51.890 they played the San Antonio Spurs, a 62 -win 00:22:51.890 --> 00:22:56.339 team, with the league MVP David Robinson. And 00:22:56.339 --> 00:22:58.980 Hakeem Olajuwon just destroyed him. He put on 00:22:58.980 --> 00:23:01.200 one of the most dominant performances in playoff 00:23:01.200 --> 00:23:03.700 history. And then the finals. Then they swept 00:23:03.700 --> 00:23:07.180 the Orlando Magic, a 57 -win team, with a young 00:23:07.180 --> 00:23:09.420 Shaquille O 'Neal and Penny Hardaway. They beat 00:23:09.420 --> 00:23:12.460 four 50 -plus win teams in a row, three of them 00:23:12.460 --> 00:23:15.890 with 59 wins or more. It is statistically the 00:23:15.890 --> 00:23:18.069 hardest championship run in the history of North 00:23:18.069 --> 00:23:21.210 American sports. It gave us the famous Rudy Tomjanovich 00:23:21.210 --> 00:23:24.109 quote after they won. Don't ever underestimate 00:23:24.109 --> 00:23:26.230 the heart of a champion. It makes you wonder 00:23:26.230 --> 00:23:28.430 if we'll ever see a team replicate that. A sixth 00:23:28.430 --> 00:23:31.789 seed or lower winning it all. With the parity 00:23:31.789 --> 00:23:35.509 we have now and the play in creating these battle 00:23:35.509 --> 00:23:37.829 hardened low seeds, I wouldn't bet against it. 00:23:37.930 --> 00:23:40.549 We came close with the heat in 23. Before we 00:23:40.549 --> 00:23:44.009 leave the topic of oddities. Has a bad team ever 00:23:44.009 --> 00:23:46.049 made the finals? I mean, a team with a losing 00:23:46.049 --> 00:23:48.849 record? It's happened, but mostly in the black 00:23:48.849 --> 00:23:50.890 and white TV era when there were like eight teams 00:23:50.890 --> 00:23:52.470 in the league. Right, the sample size was tiny. 00:23:52.670 --> 00:23:55.690 The 1957 St. Louis Hawks and the 1959 Lakers 00:23:55.690 --> 00:23:58.230 both made the finals with losing records. The 00:23:58.230 --> 00:24:00.569 league was just different. Participation trophies. 00:24:00.569 --> 00:24:03.490 Basically. But the modern example, the one that 00:24:03.490 --> 00:24:05.970 people still talk about, is the 1981 Rockets. 00:24:05.970 --> 00:24:09.019 They went 40 -42. A losing record. How does a 00:24:09.019 --> 00:24:10.859 losing team even make the playoffs? The West 00:24:10.859 --> 00:24:13.140 was very weak that year, but the real reason 00:24:13.140 --> 00:24:15.819 was Moses Malone. He was an absolute monster. 00:24:16.119 --> 00:24:18.500 He just decided he wasn't going to lose. He dragged 00:24:18.500 --> 00:24:20.559 that team kicking and screaming all the way to 00:24:20.559 --> 00:24:23.420 the finals before losing to Larry Bird and the 00:24:23.420 --> 00:24:26.460 Celtics. It gives hope to every .500 team out 00:24:26.460 --> 00:24:29.319 there. Maybe we're just the 81 Rockets in disguise. 00:24:29.680 --> 00:24:32.500 Usually you are just a bad team, but hope is 00:24:32.500 --> 00:24:36.440 a powerful drug. Flip the coin. Section 4. The 00:24:36.440 --> 00:24:39.700 agony of excellence. Because for every Cinderella 00:24:39.700 --> 00:24:42.359 story, there is a giant that tripped on its own 00:24:42.359 --> 00:24:44.680 shoelaces. The tragedy of expectations. This 00:24:44.680 --> 00:24:46.519 is where legacies are broken. We mentioned the 00:24:46.519 --> 00:24:51.299 2007 Mavs. 67 wins. MVP season for Dirk. Lost 00:24:51.299 --> 00:24:53.490 in the first round. That franchise had to carry 00:24:53.490 --> 00:24:55.369 that shame for four years until they finally 00:24:55.369 --> 00:24:58.450 won in 2011. It haunts you. It defines you until 00:24:58.450 --> 00:25:01.390 you overcome it. You look at the 2016 San Antonio 00:25:01.390 --> 00:25:04.869 Spurs. They won 67 games, a historically great 00:25:04.869 --> 00:25:07.529 team. Coy Leonard's first DPOY, I think. Right. 00:25:07.609 --> 00:25:09.950 In any other year, they are the greatest team 00:25:09.950 --> 00:25:12.509 in history and the talk of the league. But that 00:25:12.509 --> 00:25:15.289 was the year the Warriors won 73. So the Spurs 00:25:15.289 --> 00:25:18.140 were quietly historically great. overshadowed 00:25:18.140 --> 00:25:19.720 and they didn't even make the conference finals 00:25:19.720 --> 00:25:21.980 they ran into the oklahoma city thunder in the 00:25:21.980 --> 00:25:24.259 second round with kevin durant and russell westbrook 00:25:24.259 --> 00:25:26.400 the thunder were big long and athletic they just 00:25:26.400 --> 00:25:29.220 overwhelmed the spurs 67 wins and you're watching 00:25:29.220 --> 00:25:31.559 the rest of the playoffs from cancun and we have 00:25:31.559 --> 00:25:34.339 to acknowledge the pain from last year the 2025 00:25:34.339 --> 00:25:37.359 graveyard it was a bloodbath for the top teams 00:25:37.769 --> 00:25:40.930 2025 was brutal for the top seeds. You had the 00:25:40.930 --> 00:25:43.910 Cleveland Cavaliers, 64 wins. They looked unstoppable. 00:25:44.410 --> 00:25:46.369 Evan Mowgli was the defensive player of the year. 00:25:46.490 --> 00:25:48.750 Donovan Mitchell was an MVP candidate. They had 00:25:48.750 --> 00:25:51.289 it all. And they ran into the Indiana Pacers 00:25:51.289 --> 00:25:53.690 in round two. A team they should have beaten, 00:25:53.869 --> 00:25:56.410 a team they handled in the regular season. But 00:25:56.410 --> 00:25:59.250 the Pacers played at a pace, no pun intended, 00:25:59.529 --> 00:26:01.869 that Cleveland couldn't handle. They ran them 00:26:01.869 --> 00:26:05.109 off the floor. Tyrese Halliburton was unguardable. 00:26:05.250 --> 00:26:08.640 And Boston. The Celtics won 61 games. Looked 00:26:08.640 --> 00:26:10.720 like the class of the East. Lost to the Knicks 00:26:10.720 --> 00:26:13.180 in the second round. Jalen Brunson just put the 00:26:13.180 --> 00:26:15.559 team on his back. It just reinforces that the 00:26:15.559 --> 00:26:17.980 regular season is a marathon and the playoffs 00:26:17.980 --> 00:26:20.519 are a cage match. Being a good marathon runner 00:26:20.519 --> 00:26:22.839 doesn't help you in a cage match. Let's talk 00:26:22.839 --> 00:26:24.839 about the royalty. The teams that actually survived 00:26:24.839 --> 00:26:27.359 the gauntlet repeatedly. Who owns the history 00:26:27.359 --> 00:26:30.240 books? It's still the big two. The Boston Celtics 00:26:30.240 --> 00:26:32.700 with 18 titles. The Lakers right behind them 00:26:32.700 --> 00:26:35.079 with 17. There is a massive drop off after that. 00:26:35.140 --> 00:26:37.180 It's basically two franchises and then everyone 00:26:37.180 --> 00:26:39.880 else. It is. The Warriors have seven. The Bulls 00:26:39.880 --> 00:26:42.559 have six. And that's pretty much it for the big 00:26:42.559 --> 00:26:45.259 dynasties. The Bulls stat always blows my mind. 00:26:45.319 --> 00:26:48.119 The Jordan Bulls. The Six for Six. They are the 00:26:48.119 --> 00:26:51.240 only franchise. With multiple finals appearances 00:26:51.240 --> 00:26:54.059 to never lose in the finals. Yeah. Sick, sick. 00:26:54.240 --> 00:26:56.559 It's the Jordan mystique. Once they got there, 00:26:56.640 --> 00:26:59.400 they were inevitable. Most teams, even the dynasties, 00:26:59.400 --> 00:27:02.019 have scars. The Lakers have lost in the finals 00:27:02.019 --> 00:27:05.259 15 times. The Celtics have lost five or six times. 00:27:05.500 --> 00:27:07.839 The Bulls never felt that pain on the biggest 00:27:07.839 --> 00:27:10.640 stage. It's a perfect record. Speaking of inevitable, 00:27:10.940 --> 00:27:14.140 we have to mention the 2017 Warriors. The peak 00:27:14.140 --> 00:27:17.019 of the mountain. Kevin Durant joins a 73 -win 00:27:17.019 --> 00:27:20.759 team. It was just... They went 16 -1 in the playoffs. 00:27:20.920 --> 00:27:22.799 They almost went undefeated. They won their first 00:27:22.799 --> 00:27:24.799 15 games. They swept the first round, swept the 00:27:24.799 --> 00:27:26.819 second round, swept the conference finals against 00:27:26.819 --> 00:27:29.279 the Spurs, took a 3 -0 lead in the finals against 00:27:29.279 --> 00:27:31.980 LeBron's Cavs. They almost ran the table. That 00:27:31.980 --> 00:27:34.079 level of dominance is almost boring. It's like 00:27:34.079 --> 00:27:35.940 watching a movie when you already know the ending. 00:27:36.160 --> 00:27:38.819 It was, but it was brilliant, ruthless efficiency. 00:27:38.960 --> 00:27:41.039 That's a different kind of gauntlet survival. 00:27:41.440 --> 00:27:44.140 And the other end of the spectrum. The sadness. 00:27:44.440 --> 00:27:47.599 The droughts. The teams that can't even get into 00:27:47.599 --> 00:27:50.339 the gauntlet. The Sacramento Kings held the record 00:27:50.339 --> 00:27:53.359 for a long time, 16 years without a playoff appearance. 00:27:53.680 --> 00:27:57.539 From 2007 to 2022, kids were born, learned to 00:27:57.539 --> 00:27:59.880 drive, and graduated high school without seeing 00:27:59.880 --> 00:28:02.119 the Kings in the playoffs. They finally broke 00:28:02.119 --> 00:28:05.460 it in 2023 with that Light the Beam team. So 00:28:05.460 --> 00:28:08.660 who holds the crown of sadness now in 2026? As 00:28:08.660 --> 00:28:10.859 we speak, the Charlotte Hornets have the longest 00:28:10.859 --> 00:28:13.039 active drought. They haven't been in the postseason 00:28:13.039 --> 00:28:16.240 since 2016. It's been a decade of rebuilding 00:28:16.240 --> 00:28:19.559 bad draft picks and just bad luck. Ouch. Sorry 00:28:19.559 --> 00:28:21.779 to any Hornets fans listening. Maybe with the 00:28:21.779 --> 00:28:24.160 new lottery odds. Well, let's not give false 00:28:24.160 --> 00:28:26.700 hope. It's not. It's a tough road. Okay, let's 00:28:26.700 --> 00:28:28.319 move to the final piece of the puzzle. Section 00:28:28.319 --> 00:28:31.740 5, the business of basketball. Because the gauntlet 00:28:31.740 --> 00:28:34.180 isn't just a physical test anymore. It's a content 00:28:34.180 --> 00:28:37.440 engine. And in 2026, the engine is getting an 00:28:37.440 --> 00:28:40.119 upgrade. A massive upgrade or a massive complication, 00:28:40.119 --> 00:28:41.619 depending on how many subscriptions you have. 00:28:41.759 --> 00:28:44.279 We are entering the first year of the new 11 00:28:44.279 --> 00:28:47.200 -year media rights deal. It kicks in specifically 00:28:47.200 --> 00:28:50.099 with these upcoming playoffs. So if you turn 00:28:50.099 --> 00:28:52.660 on your TV in April expecting to see the game 00:28:52.660 --> 00:28:55.150 on the usual channel. you might be looking at 00:28:55.150 --> 00:28:57.690 static. Right. So the big players are changing. 00:28:57.890 --> 00:29:00.650 You still have Disney, ABC, and ESPN. They aren't 00:29:00.650 --> 00:29:03.809 going anywhere. ABC has aired every NBA final 00:29:03.809 --> 00:29:06.490 since 2003, and they will continue to do so. 00:29:06.690 --> 00:29:09.549 That tradition holds. The biggest games are still 00:29:09.549 --> 00:29:12.630 on free, over -the -air TV. Okay, so the finals 00:29:12.630 --> 00:29:15.710 are safe on broadcast TV. That's good. What's 00:29:15.710 --> 00:29:18.509 new? NBC is back. For fans who grew up in the 00:29:18.509 --> 00:29:21.130 90s, this is huge. Are we getting round ball 00:29:21.130 --> 00:29:23.630 rock? The John Tesh theme song? I need to know. 00:29:24.269 --> 00:29:26.809 Reportedly, yes. They paid for the rights. It's 00:29:26.809 --> 00:29:29.730 coming back. NBC Universal is a major partner 00:29:29.730 --> 00:29:31.569 now. They, along with their streaming service 00:29:31.569 --> 00:29:34.269 Peacock, will be carrying a significant chunk 00:29:34.269 --> 00:29:36.589 of the early rounds and some conference finals. 00:29:36.869 --> 00:29:38.710 And then there's the elephant in the room. Or 00:29:38.710 --> 00:29:40.930 the smiling box in the room. Amazon Prime Video. 00:29:41.170 --> 00:29:43.369 For the first time, we have a purely streaming 00:29:43.369 --> 00:29:46.049 partner for the NBA playoffs. Not a channel that 00:29:46.049 --> 00:29:48.369 also has a streaming app. A streamer, period. 00:29:48.920 --> 00:29:50.700 So we aren't just talking about simulcasting, 00:29:50.799 --> 00:29:52.920 where the game is on ESPN and also on the ESPN 00:29:52.920 --> 00:29:54.779 app. We're talking about games that are only 00:29:54.779 --> 00:29:57.940 on Amazon. Correct. Approximately a third of 00:29:57.940 --> 00:30:00.359 the first and second round games will be exclusive 00:30:00.359 --> 00:30:03.039 to Prime Video. If you don't have the app, you 00:30:03.039 --> 00:30:05.480 don't watch the game. The days of being able 00:30:05.480 --> 00:30:08.140 to watch every game with just a basic cable package 00:30:08.140 --> 00:30:11.500 are over. That is a huge barrier for the older 00:30:11.500 --> 00:30:13.519 demographic. This is just where the world is 00:30:13.519 --> 00:30:16.480 going. But there is a silver lining for the local 00:30:16.480 --> 00:30:20.460 fan, right? Something about blackouts. Yes. The 00:30:20.460 --> 00:30:23.319 death of the blackout. This is a huge win for 00:30:23.319 --> 00:30:26.019 fans. Explain that. Because nothing makes fans 00:30:26.019 --> 00:30:28.500 angrier than blackouts. In the old days, the 00:30:28.500 --> 00:30:30.420 first round was weird. It was aired on national 00:30:30.420 --> 00:30:34.099 TV, like ESPN or TNT. But it was also aired on 00:30:34.099 --> 00:30:36.700 your local regional sports network, like Bally 00:30:36.700 --> 00:30:40.309 Sports or NBC Sports Boston. If you lived in 00:30:40.309 --> 00:30:42.309 the local market, the national feed was often 00:30:42.309 --> 00:30:44.450 blacked out to protect the local channel. So 00:30:44.450 --> 00:30:46.109 you'd pay for cable, you'd see the game listed 00:30:46.109 --> 00:30:49.049 on TNT, you'd turn to TNT and get a this game 00:30:49.049 --> 00:30:52.210 is not available in your area message. Exactly. 00:30:53.210 --> 00:30:55.849 Infuriating. Under the new deal, the playoffs 00:30:55.849 --> 00:30:58.930 are fully nationalized. The local RSNs are cut 00:30:58.930 --> 00:31:02.049 out completely. If the game is on Peacock, it's 00:31:02.049 --> 00:31:03.950 on Peacock for everyone in the country. If it's 00:31:03.950 --> 00:31:07.029 on Amazon, it's on Amazon for everyone. No more 00:31:07.029 --> 00:31:09.849 blackouts. It streamlines the access, but it 00:31:09.849 --> 00:31:12.750 fragments a payment. You need cable for ESPN, 00:31:12.990 --> 00:31:16.640 a Peacock subscription for NBC. And a Prime subscription 00:31:16.640 --> 00:31:19.460 for Amazon. It's the bundle 2 .0. Instead of 00:31:19.460 --> 00:31:21.900 one big cable bill, you have three or four smaller 00:31:21.900 --> 00:31:24.180 streaming bills. And the conference finals are 00:31:24.180 --> 00:31:26.180 changing, too. Remember, it used to be a strict 00:31:26.180 --> 00:31:29.359 rotation. East on TNT one year, west on ESPN, 00:31:29.559 --> 00:31:32.210 then flip. The rotation is getting wider. ABC 00:31:32.210 --> 00:31:34.750 -SPN will always have one conference final. That's 00:31:34.750 --> 00:31:36.750 locked in. But the other conference final will 00:31:36.750 --> 00:31:39.529 now rotate annually between NBC and Amazon Prime 00:31:39.529 --> 00:31:41.490 Video. Wait, so in a couple of years, the Western 00:31:41.490 --> 00:31:43.309 Conference Finals, one of the biggest sporting 00:31:43.309 --> 00:31:45.650 events of the year, could be exclusively on a 00:31:45.650 --> 00:31:48.789 streaming app. That is the plan. In 2027, for 00:31:48.789 --> 00:31:50.910 example, the Eastern Conference Finals might 00:31:50.910 --> 00:31:53.410 be on Amazon Prime. It is a brave new world. 00:31:53.470 --> 00:31:56.369 It reflects the fact that the NBA knows its audience 00:31:56.369 --> 00:32:00.079 is young. cord cutting and digital first they 00:32:00.079 --> 00:32:02.039 are betting the farm on streaming it's gonna 00:32:02.039 --> 00:32:04.440 be fascinating to see the ratings will grandpas 00:32:04.440 --> 00:32:07.519 in ohio figure out how to cast prime to their 00:32:07.519 --> 00:32:09.900 tv to watch the calves they will if they want 00:32:09.900 --> 00:32:12.559 to see the game fandom is a powerful motivator 00:32:12.559 --> 00:32:15.769 necessity is the mother of invention true So 00:32:15.769 --> 00:32:17.630 we've covered a lot. We've gone from the 1947 00:32:17.630 --> 00:32:22.329 BAA chaos to the 1995 rockets miracle to the 00:32:22.329 --> 00:32:25.970 2025 upsets and now to the 2026 streaming wars. 00:32:26.230 --> 00:32:28.509 It's a lot to digest. The whole system has been 00:32:28.509 --> 00:32:30.630 in constant motion for 80 years. When you look 00:32:30.630 --> 00:32:33.259 at this entire machine. The gauntlet. What is 00:32:33.259 --> 00:32:34.980 the one thing that sticks with you? What is the 00:32:34.980 --> 00:32:36.759 big takeaway? You know, I keep thinking about 00:32:36.759 --> 00:32:39.759 that 1995 Rockets team, the sixth seed. And I 00:32:39.759 --> 00:32:41.640 connect it to what we saw with the eighth seed 00:32:41.640 --> 00:32:44.140 Heat making the finals and what we saw last year 00:32:44.140 --> 00:32:45.660 with the Warriors winning as a seventh seed. 00:32:45.720 --> 00:32:47.640 I think we are seeing a fundamental shift in 00:32:47.640 --> 00:32:50.000 the soul of the NBA. How so? What's the shift? 00:32:50.220 --> 00:32:53.140 For 50 years, the narrative we told fans was 00:32:53.140 --> 00:32:55.900 the regular season matters. You need a top seed. 00:32:56.000 --> 00:32:58.319 You need home court. And statistically, that's 00:32:58.319 --> 00:33:01.240 still true. The higher seed still wins most of 00:33:01.240 --> 00:33:04.279 the time. But. But spiritually, I think that's 00:33:04.279 --> 00:33:06.799 dead. Dead. That's a strong word. I think the 00:33:06.799 --> 00:33:08.880 regular season has become a qualifier. It's just 00:33:08.880 --> 00:33:11.400 about getting a ticket to the dance because the 00:33:11.400 --> 00:33:15.200 gauntlet is so specific, so grueling and so matchup 00:33:15.200 --> 00:33:18.359 dependent that once you are in, I truly believe 00:33:18.359 --> 00:33:20.779 the 10th seed that fought its way in is just 00:33:20.779 --> 00:33:23.579 as dangerous as the first seed if they are healthy 00:33:23.579 --> 00:33:25.460 and clicking at the right time. So you're saying 00:33:25.460 --> 00:33:28.180 the best team isn't necessarily the one with 00:33:28.180 --> 00:33:30.220 the best record anymore. The best team is just 00:33:30.220 --> 00:33:32.359 the one that survives the attrition. Exactly. 00:33:32.519 --> 00:33:34.759 The gauntlet doesn't care what you did in November. 00:33:34.940 --> 00:33:37.200 It doesn't care about your 15 game win streak 00:33:37.200 --> 00:33:40.740 in January. It asks one question. Can you beat 00:33:40.740 --> 00:33:42.960 this specific team with their specific style 00:33:42.960 --> 00:33:45.900 four times in two weeks right now? And more and 00:33:45.900 --> 00:33:48.140 more, the answer from the lower seeds is yes. 00:33:48.480 --> 00:33:51.119 That is a terrifying thought for the Celtics 00:33:51.119 --> 00:33:53.240 and Thunder fans out there who are cruising to 00:33:53.240 --> 00:33:55.539 a top seed and a beautiful thought for everyone 00:33:55.539 --> 00:33:58.240 else. Chaos is beautiful. It makes it all worth 00:33:58.240 --> 00:34:01.190 watching. Well, the 2026 playoffs are starting 00:34:01.190 --> 00:34:03.329 in April. I encourage you to watch them differently 00:34:03.329 --> 00:34:06.490 this year. Don't just watch the ball. Watch the 00:34:06.490 --> 00:34:08.829 format. Watch the coaching adjustments after 00:34:08.829 --> 00:34:11.969 a Game 3 loss. Watch the desperation in the play 00:34:11.969 --> 00:34:14.570 -in game. And realize that you are watching a 00:34:14.570 --> 00:34:16.909 machine designed to break these humans down. 00:34:17.230 --> 00:34:20.309 And see who is left standing at the end. Thanks 00:34:20.309 --> 00:34:22.289 for listening to The Deep Dive. See you on the 00:34:22.289 --> 00:34:22.489 court.