WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.660 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today, we are 00:00:02.660 --> 00:00:06.019 unpacking a stack of sources that really challenges 00:00:06.019 --> 00:00:08.160 the traditional idea of what a conflict actually 00:00:08.160 --> 00:00:10.199 looks like. Yeah, it definitely clips the script. 00:00:10.439 --> 00:00:12.519 Because usually, you know, when we talk about 00:00:12.519 --> 00:00:14.699 history, especially the history between Ukraine 00:00:14.699 --> 00:00:17.719 and Russia, our minds go straight to the kinetic 00:00:17.719 --> 00:00:20.960 stuff. We picture tanks, trench lines, maybe 00:00:20.960 --> 00:00:23.679 some high -level diplomatic summits or cyber 00:00:23.679 --> 00:00:25.800 warfare. Right, the stuff that makes the front 00:00:25.800 --> 00:00:28.920 page of the evening news. Exactly. But the story 00:00:28.920 --> 00:00:30.640 we are looking at today is completely different. 00:00:31.070 --> 00:00:34.170 It reimagines the battlefield not as a muddy 00:00:34.170 --> 00:00:37.829 field or a negotiating table, but as the grocery 00:00:37.829 --> 00:00:40.509 aisle. The dairy section. Yeah. The gas pump. 00:00:40.689 --> 00:00:43.149 Yeah, the candy shelf. It is a fascinating pivot. 00:00:43.270 --> 00:00:45.030 We are essentially looking at how the everyday 00:00:45.030 --> 00:00:47.310 shopping cart became a weapon of resistance. 00:00:47.909 --> 00:00:50.250 And we are digging into the specific campaign 00:00:50.250 --> 00:00:52.890 known as Do Not Buy Russian Goods. Right. Or 00:00:52.890 --> 00:00:55.409 in Ukrainian, Nekupy Rosiska. Right, which is 00:00:55.409 --> 00:00:57.810 a massive nonviolent resistance movement. It 00:00:57.810 --> 00:01:00.640 is. It turns the simple act of buying a refusing 00:01:00.640 --> 00:01:03.299 to buy a carton of milk or a chocolate bar into 00:01:03.299 --> 00:01:06.129 a direct form of protest. And what really stands 00:01:06.129 --> 00:01:08.150 out immediately in the research is the premise 00:01:08.150 --> 00:01:11.290 of it all. We are so used to hearing about sanctions 00:01:11.290 --> 00:01:13.730 coming from the top down. You know, we think 00:01:13.730 --> 00:01:16.510 of a president signing an executive order or 00:01:16.510 --> 00:01:19.750 the EU freezing assets. High level statecraft. 00:01:19.890 --> 00:01:22.969 Yeah, high level statecraft. But this, this is 00:01:22.969 --> 00:01:25.989 entirely grassroots. This is ordinary people 00:01:25.989 --> 00:01:29.069 organizing on social media to hit an adversary's 00:01:29.069 --> 00:01:32.010 economy wallet first. It is the ultimate vote 00:01:32.010 --> 00:01:34.790 with your dollar story. But here is where the 00:01:34.790 --> 00:01:37.290 timeline really threw me for a loop when looking 00:01:37.290 --> 00:01:40.090 at the sources. Oh, the timeline is wild. If 00:01:40.090 --> 00:01:41.530 you stop someone on the street right now and 00:01:41.530 --> 00:01:43.450 asked, hey, when did the boycott of Russian goods 00:01:43.450 --> 00:01:45.890 really start? They would probably guess 2022, 00:01:46.290 --> 00:01:48.750 right? With the full scale invasion. Or maybe 00:01:48.750 --> 00:01:51.590 they would say 2014 when Crimea was annexed. 00:01:51.590 --> 00:01:53.290 I mean, that is exactly what I thought before 00:01:53.290 --> 00:01:55.170 we dug into this. Right. But looking at the source 00:01:55.170 --> 00:01:58.129 material, that is not quite right. No. And that 00:01:58.129 --> 00:02:00.189 is a really crucial distinction for us to make 00:02:00.189 --> 00:02:02.760 right up front. This campaign didn't start with 00:02:02.760 --> 00:02:05.480 a military invasion. It actually started as a 00:02:05.480 --> 00:02:08.860 reaction to a trade embargo. The campaign officially 00:02:08.860 --> 00:02:12.500 launched on August 14th, 2013. Which is months 00:02:12.500 --> 00:02:15.139 before the Maidan protests really heated up and 00:02:15.139 --> 00:02:17.740 well before any military annexation. Exactly. 00:02:17.740 --> 00:02:21.300 So let's unpack that a bit. August 2013. The 00:02:21.300 --> 00:02:24.259 world looks very different. What was happening 00:02:24.259 --> 00:02:26.539 that made people say, OK, put down the Russian 00:02:26.539 --> 00:02:29.080 cheese? Well, the context here is what the sources 00:02:29.080 --> 00:02:32.099 refer to as the food wars. The food wars, which 00:02:32.099 --> 00:02:34.439 it sounds like a reality TV show on the Food 00:02:34.439 --> 00:02:36.680 Network. It really does. But I assume the stakes 00:02:36.680 --> 00:02:38.240 were a bit higher than a cooking competition. 00:02:38.520 --> 00:02:41.240 Much higher. Russia had been launching a series 00:02:41.240 --> 00:02:43.780 of targeted economic conflicts against Ukraine 00:02:43.780 --> 00:02:46.680 for some time. The documents list them quite 00:02:46.680 --> 00:02:49.500 specifically, and the names are almost deceptively 00:02:49.500 --> 00:02:52.199 cute. Right. You had the meat war. The cheese 00:02:52.199 --> 00:02:54.300 war. And eventually the chocolate war. You know, 00:02:54.300 --> 00:02:56.280 diplomatic relations are crumbling when you weaponize 00:02:56.280 --> 00:02:58.939 confectionery. It sounds comical on the surface, 00:02:59.000 --> 00:03:01.120 but think about the economic reality of that. 00:03:01.280 --> 00:03:04.479 For Ukrainian exporters, Russia was a massive 00:03:04.479 --> 00:03:07.300 market. When Russia decides to just block Ukrainian 00:03:07.300 --> 00:03:09.939 chocolate or cheese, factories stop running. 00:03:10.099 --> 00:03:12.379 People lose jobs. Right. It was a way for Russia 00:03:12.379 --> 00:03:15.439 to use its sheer market power to punish Ukraine 00:03:15.439 --> 00:03:18.949 politically. It is basically economic strangulation. 00:03:19.250 --> 00:03:23.849 Precisely. Then, on August 14, 2013, the Federal 00:03:23.849 --> 00:03:26.849 Customs Service of Russia took a drastic step. 00:03:27.009 --> 00:03:29.949 They listed all Ukrainian exporters as companies 00:03:29.949 --> 00:03:32.389 that were at risk. At risk. That sounds like 00:03:32.389 --> 00:03:34.650 such boring bureaucratic code. Oh, it is code 00:03:34.650 --> 00:03:37.810 for a total blockade. Suddenly, you had hundreds 00:03:37.810 --> 00:03:39.830 of trucks and rail cars backed up at customs, 00:03:40.009 --> 00:03:42.569 physically unable to deliver Ukrainian goods 00:03:42.569 --> 00:03:45.129 into Russia. The goods were literally rotting 00:03:45.129 --> 00:03:47.270 at the border. It was a complete stranglehold. 00:03:47.430 --> 00:03:49.770 Yeah. So the boycott, this grassroots movement, 00:03:49.990 --> 00:03:52.430 wasn't just an unprovoked action by Ukrainians. 00:03:52.430 --> 00:03:55.360 It was a counterpunch. Yes. It was a direct reaction 00:03:55.360 --> 00:03:58.240 to having their own goods blocked. And that is 00:03:58.240 --> 00:04:00.159 when the group known as Vidzic stepped in. They 00:04:00.159 --> 00:04:02.000 are a civic movement, right? Yeah. And their 00:04:02.000 --> 00:04:04.780 logic was simple reciprocity. They figured if 00:04:04.780 --> 00:04:06.759 Russia isn't going to buy Ukrainian goods, why 00:04:06.759 --> 00:04:09.020 on earth? Should Ukrainians buy Russian goods? 00:04:09.240 --> 00:04:10.919 And they didn't just post angry tweets about 00:04:10.919 --> 00:04:12.840 it. They actually mobilized on the ground. They 00:04:12.840 --> 00:04:15.659 hit the streets hard. We are talking about mass 00:04:15.659 --> 00:04:18.100 distribution of leaflets, posters and stickers. 00:04:18.519 --> 00:04:21.800 The research mentions coverage in over 45 cities 00:04:21.800 --> 00:04:24.720 and towns. And the imagery they used was really 00:04:24.720 --> 00:04:27.779 striking. They took the Matryoshka doll, you 00:04:27.779 --> 00:04:30.379 know, the famous Russian nesting doll, and turned 00:04:30.379 --> 00:04:33.379 it into this intense caricature. I saw some of 00:04:33.379 --> 00:04:34.980 those images in the source material. They're 00:04:34.980 --> 00:04:37.180 definitely not your... grandmother's nesting 00:04:37.180 --> 00:04:39.720 dolls not at all they use them to symbolize a 00:04:39.720 --> 00:04:42.519 hidden danger inside the products like this looks 00:04:42.519 --> 00:04:44.939 innocent on the outside but there are teeth inside 00:04:44.939 --> 00:04:47.959 it brands the product not just as foreign but 00:04:47.959 --> 00:04:51.160 is actively hostile but Interestingly enough, 00:04:51.379 --> 00:04:53.519 the campaign actually started to fade a bit later 00:04:53.519 --> 00:04:56.160 in 2013. Right, because the Euromaidan protests 00:04:56.160 --> 00:04:59.180 started in November. Everyone's focus naturally 00:04:59.180 --> 00:05:02.319 shifted to the main square and the massive political 00:05:02.319 --> 00:05:04.540 revolution happening. It is hard to worry about 00:05:04.540 --> 00:05:06.259 checking grocery labels when your government 00:05:06.259 --> 00:05:08.360 is in a state of collapse. That makes total sense. 00:05:08.660 --> 00:05:12.579 But then came March 2, 2014. The date everything 00:05:12.579 --> 00:05:15.339 changed. The annexation of Crimea and the beginning 00:05:15.339 --> 00:05:20.040 of the Russian military intervention. strategy 00:05:20.040 --> 00:05:23.579 and the tone of it shifted completely. In 2013, 00:05:23.819 --> 00:05:27.019 the goal was reciprocity. You block our trade, 00:05:27.139 --> 00:05:30.680 we block yours. But in 2014, the goal became 00:05:30.680 --> 00:05:33.800 much darker and far more urgent. The sources 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:36.300 are very clear on this shift. The new message 00:05:36.300 --> 00:05:39.160 wasn't about fair trade anymore. It was, do not 00:05:39.160 --> 00:05:41.560 send your money to Russia because that money 00:05:41.560 --> 00:05:44.439 buys the bullets used against us. It became strictly 00:05:44.439 --> 00:05:46.639 about preventing the financing of the military. 00:05:46.879 --> 00:05:49.560 It turned every single purchase into a moral 00:05:49.560 --> 00:05:52.319 decision. And because the stakes were now literally 00:05:52.319 --> 00:05:55.000 life and death, the tactics became much more 00:05:55.000 --> 00:05:57.459 dramatic. This is where we start seeing the flash 00:05:57.459 --> 00:06:00.240 mobs. Now, when you say flash mob, I think most 00:06:00.240 --> 00:06:02.699 people picture a group dancing to a pop song 00:06:02.699 --> 00:06:05.600 in a mall. But these were intense. Extremely 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:07.819 intense. The Russian Kills campaign really stands 00:06:07.819 --> 00:06:09.560 out in the research. Can you imagine walking 00:06:09.560 --> 00:06:11.699 into a supermarket to buy groceries? Maybe you're 00:06:11.699 --> 00:06:13.920 just grabbing milk on a Tuesday evening and suddenly 00:06:13.920 --> 00:06:16.060 people all around you just drop to the floor. 00:06:16.180 --> 00:06:18.000 Just collapse right there in the aisle. Yes. 00:06:18.579 --> 00:06:20.500 Activists would enter supermarkets or restaurants 00:06:20.500 --> 00:06:23.610 and fall down as if dead. It forces the shopper 00:06:23.610 --> 00:06:25.949 to physically step over a body just to buy a 00:06:25.949 --> 00:06:28.170 jar of Russian pickles or a bottle of vodka. 00:06:28.389 --> 00:06:30.970 That is incredibly confronting. It breaks that 00:06:30.970 --> 00:06:34.149 autopilot mode we all have when we shop. Usually 00:06:34.149 --> 00:06:36.269 you are just looking at the price tag or checking 00:06:36.269 --> 00:06:38.470 the calories. This forces you to look at the 00:06:38.470 --> 00:06:40.769 origin. It definitely kills the mood for casual 00:06:40.769 --> 00:06:43.449 browsing. And the scope of the boycott expanded 00:06:43.449 --> 00:06:45.689 too, right? It wasn't just about what was on 00:06:45.689 --> 00:06:48.050 the supermarket shelf anymore. No, it went much 00:06:48.050 --> 00:06:51.519 wider. The boycott expanded to include Russian 00:06:51.519 --> 00:06:55.240 gas stations, banks, and even concerts by Russian 00:06:55.240 --> 00:06:58.360 artists. The core idea was that any economic 00:06:58.360 --> 00:07:01.579 interaction at all was a form of support. And 00:07:01.579 --> 00:07:03.180 this brings us to what I found to be the most 00:07:03.180 --> 00:07:05.120 fascinating part of the story from a tactical 00:07:05.120 --> 00:07:07.720 perspective. The sources outline what we can 00:07:07.720 --> 00:07:10.579 call the Battle of the Barcodes. This part feels 00:07:10.579 --> 00:07:13.339 like a tech thriller. Because, let's be honest, 00:07:13.519 --> 00:07:15.699 identifying a Russian product isn't always easy. 00:07:16.060 --> 00:07:18.000 We live in a highly globalized world. You have 00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:21.220 global supply chains, subsidiaries, complex licensing 00:07:21.220 --> 00:07:24.060 deals. If I pick up a generic candy bar, how 00:07:24.060 --> 00:07:26.220 do I actually know where the profit goes? Exactly. 00:07:26.339 --> 00:07:28.959 So the activists gave consumers a brilliant shortcut. 00:07:29.199 --> 00:07:31.720 They told people to look for the number 460. 00:07:32.100 --> 00:07:35.579 460, the first three digits of the barcode. Right. 00:07:35.639 --> 00:07:38.060 In the international barcode system, that prefix 00:07:38.060 --> 00:07:41.600 indicates the country of origin is Russia. So 00:07:41.600 --> 00:07:44.240 people started scanning everything. If the barcode 00:07:44.240 --> 00:07:47.069 started with 460. It stayed on the shelf. But 00:07:47.069 --> 00:07:49.629 then technology stepped up. We are in the smartphone 00:07:49.629 --> 00:07:52.449 age after all. Someone developed a specific Android 00:07:52.449 --> 00:07:55.449 app called Boycott Invaders. I love that name. 00:07:55.750 --> 00:07:58.750 Boycott Invaders. It just cuts right to the chase. 00:07:58.790 --> 00:08:00.730 It was very effective. You could scan a product 00:08:00.730 --> 00:08:02.810 with your phone camera and it would check a database 00:08:02.810 --> 00:08:05.589 and tell you instantly if it was Russian. But 00:08:05.589 --> 00:08:07.870 here is where the cat and mouse game really began. 00:08:08.470 --> 00:08:10.790 The Russian manufacturers didn't just take the 00:08:10.790 --> 00:08:13.500 hit. They adapted. This is the part that surprised 00:08:13.500 --> 00:08:16.180 me the most. They started hiding. Hiding in plain 00:08:16.180 --> 00:08:19.040 sight. By April 2014, reports started coming 00:08:19.040 --> 00:08:20.879 in that Russian companies were actually changing 00:08:20.879 --> 00:08:23.360 their barcodes. They were switching them to Ukrainian 00:08:23.360 --> 00:08:26.139 barcodes or even those of other countries to 00:08:26.139 --> 00:08:28.399 disguise the origin of the goods. That feels 00:08:28.399 --> 00:08:30.480 incredibly deceptive. You were standing there 00:08:30.480 --> 00:08:32.179 trying to make an ethical choice, looking for 00:08:32.179 --> 00:08:34.980 the 460, and the package is effectively lying 00:08:34.980 --> 00:08:38.240 to you. It forced the everyday activists to become 00:08:38.240 --> 00:08:40.519 detectives. They couldn't just rely on the prefix 00:08:40.519 --> 00:08:42.919 anymore. They had to spot the illegal masking 00:08:42.919 --> 00:08:45.879 of products in supermarkets. They had to research 00:08:45.879 --> 00:08:47.820 parent companies. It turned routine shopping 00:08:47.820 --> 00:08:50.860 into a constant investigation. It really highlights 00:08:50.860 --> 00:08:53.200 how fluid the definition of product origin can 00:08:53.200 --> 00:08:55.419 be. You think you know where something comes 00:08:55.419 --> 00:08:58.500 from, but the supply chain is completely opaque. 00:08:58.860 --> 00:09:01.159 But the campaign didn't stop at physical goods 00:09:01.159 --> 00:09:04.159 either. In late 2014, they went after culture. 00:09:04.730 --> 00:09:07.570 Yes, the Boycott Russian Films campaign. This 00:09:07.570 --> 00:09:11.450 launched in August 2014. The target was movies 00:09:11.450 --> 00:09:14.009 and TV serials. Which is huge because Russian 00:09:14.009 --> 00:09:16.529 media was very dominant in Ukraine at that time. 00:09:16.629 --> 00:09:18.490 It was the default entertainment for millions 00:09:18.490 --> 00:09:20.970 of people, but the pressure actually worked. 00:09:21.210 --> 00:09:24.529 Some movie theaters in Kiev, Lviv, and Odessa 00:09:24.529 --> 00:09:26.450 actually stopped showing Russian films entirely. 00:09:26.669 --> 00:09:29.929 It was a rejection of soft power alongside the 00:09:29.929 --> 00:09:32.059 rejection of hard goods. And then there is the 00:09:32.059 --> 00:09:35.100 Nestle case in 2015. This one seems a bit messy 00:09:35.100 --> 00:09:36.899 when you read the sources. It wasn't just about 00:09:36.899 --> 00:09:39.340 where the chocolate was made. No, this was a 00:09:39.340 --> 00:09:41.940 real convergence of issues. It actually started 00:09:41.940 --> 00:09:44.879 with a discrimination case. A journalist wasn't 00:09:44.879 --> 00:09:47.059 hired, allegedly, because of Ukrainian language 00:09:47.059 --> 00:09:49.960 requirements. But the activists from Vitsich, 00:09:50.100 --> 00:09:52.500 the same group that started the 2013 boycott, 00:09:52.720 --> 00:09:55.809 they latched onto this. They saw an opening to 00:09:55.809 --> 00:09:58.350 broaden the argument against the company. They 00:09:58.350 --> 00:10:00.610 pointed out that Nestle was still selling products 00:10:00.610 --> 00:10:03.590 manufactured by Russia in Ukraine. So you had 00:10:03.590 --> 00:10:07.169 this dual anger, a corporate culture issue regarding 00:10:07.169 --> 00:10:09.929 language and a supply chain issue regarding the 00:10:09.929 --> 00:10:12.789 aggressor state. And that led to protests right 00:10:12.789 --> 00:10:15.090 outside their corporate offices and more of those 00:10:15.090 --> 00:10:17.990 Russian kills flash mobs targeting Nestle products 00:10:17.990 --> 00:10:20.710 specifically. It shows how a global brand. can 00:10:20.710 --> 00:10:22.850 get caught in the crossfire if they aren't paying 00:10:22.850 --> 00:10:25.450 close attention to the local sentiment. Neutrality 00:10:25.450 --> 00:10:27.409 becomes very difficult to maintain in that kind 00:10:27.409 --> 00:10:29.549 of environment. So we have talked a lot about 00:10:29.549 --> 00:10:31.789 the domestic front, but this movement didn't 00:10:31.789 --> 00:10:34.169 stay inside Ukraine's borders forever. No, it 00:10:34.169 --> 00:10:36.409 rippled out almost immediately. Even back in 00:10:36.409 --> 00:10:39.429 2014, you saw Poland and Lithuania joining the 00:10:39.429 --> 00:10:43.029 boycott. But the real shift, the massive global 00:10:43.029 --> 00:10:45.750 escalation, happened with the full -scale invasion 00:10:45.750 --> 00:10:48.750 in 2022. That is when the whole world started 00:10:48.750 --> 00:10:52.210 paying attention. And the boycott went from activists 00:10:52.210 --> 00:10:54.690 with stickers to state governments actively removing 00:10:54.690 --> 00:10:58.009 inventory. The scale was unprecedented. In Denmark, 00:10:58.250 --> 00:11:00.610 major supermarkets just stopped selling Russian 00:11:00.610 --> 00:11:03.149 goods completely. No more debates about barcodes. 00:11:03.169 --> 00:11:05.429 The stuff was just gone. And in North America, 00:11:05.590 --> 00:11:08.470 it got very specific. The sources detail actions 00:11:08.470 --> 00:11:10.629 in the U .S. and Canada. You had states like 00:11:10.629 --> 00:11:14.009 New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. These are 00:11:14.009 --> 00:11:15.889 states where the government actually controls 00:11:15.889 --> 00:11:18.289 the liquor stores. The control states. Exactly. 00:11:18.309 --> 00:11:20.889 The governors in those states basically ordered 00:11:20.889 --> 00:11:23.529 the removal of Russian vodka. Take it off the 00:11:23.529 --> 00:11:25.529 shelf immediately. Same thing happened in Canada. 00:11:25.909 --> 00:11:28.570 Ontario, Manitoba, Newfoundland, and Labrador, 00:11:28.750 --> 00:11:31.519 all the liquor control boards. pulled the products. 00:11:31.659 --> 00:11:34.720 Now, we have to be honest here. Vodka is a symbolic 00:11:34.720 --> 00:11:37.480 target. It is not the entire economy. Right. 00:11:37.600 --> 00:11:40.360 But it sends a very visible message to the average 00:11:40.360 --> 00:11:42.480 consumer walking down the aisle. You look for 00:11:42.480 --> 00:11:45.440 your usual brand and it's just not there. But 00:11:45.440 --> 00:11:47.480 while we were pouring out vodka, the financial 00:11:47.480 --> 00:11:49.419 world was doing something much more painful. 00:11:49.620 --> 00:11:51.980 They turned off the plumbing. The banking freeze. 00:11:52.320 --> 00:11:54.879 This is the modern equivalent of a medieval siege. 00:11:55.240 --> 00:11:57.700 The U .S. Department of State sanctioned lists 00:11:57.700 --> 00:12:01.690 of banks. But the big blow. was Swift. We hear 00:12:01.690 --> 00:12:04.090 about Swift a lot on the news, but let's clarify 00:12:04.090 --> 00:12:07.049 what it actually is based on our deep dive. It 00:12:07.049 --> 00:12:09.809 is not a bank itself. No, it is the messaging 00:12:09.809 --> 00:12:12.929 system banks use to talk to each other. It is 00:12:12.929 --> 00:12:15.590 basically like WhatsApp for money. If you get 00:12:15.590 --> 00:12:17.809 disconnected from Swift, you cannot tell another 00:12:17.809 --> 00:12:20.110 bank to move money. You are effectively mute 00:12:20.110 --> 00:12:22.470 in the global economy. And on the ground, for 00:12:22.470 --> 00:12:24.909 the average Russian citizen, the impact of that 00:12:24.909 --> 00:12:27.590 was immediate. It was incredibly tangible. Visa 00:12:27.590 --> 00:12:31.389 and MasterCard Just stopped working abroad. Imagine 00:12:31.389 --> 00:12:34.309 being a tourist or a business traveler, and suddenly 00:12:34.309 --> 00:12:36.830 your plastic card is just a useless piece of 00:12:36.830 --> 00:12:39.330 plastic. You cannot pay for your hotel, you cannot 00:12:39.330 --> 00:12:42.629 buy dinner. Precisely. You saw long lines at 00:12:42.629 --> 00:12:45.909 ATMs, a sudden desperate reliance on cash, and 00:12:45.909 --> 00:12:48.190 a forced migration to their domestic mirror system. 00:12:48.629 --> 00:12:51.710 It isolated the Russian consumer economy from 00:12:51.710 --> 00:12:53.710 the rest of the world in a way that leaflets 00:12:53.710 --> 00:12:56.700 never could. So we have the anecdotes, we have 00:12:56.700 --> 00:12:58.820 the flash mobs, and we have the liquor bans. 00:12:58.860 --> 00:13:01.320 But now we really have to ask the big question, 00:13:01.440 --> 00:13:03.799 the one that matters most. Did it actually work? 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:06.019 Do we have hard numbers on the effectiveness? 00:13:06.539 --> 00:13:09.360 We do, and the numbers are significant. If we 00:13:09.360 --> 00:13:12.399 look back at that initial surge in spring 2014, 00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:15.980 the impact was undeniable. Sales of Russian goods 00:13:15.980 --> 00:13:19.179 in Ukraine dropped by 35 to 50 percent. That 00:13:19.179 --> 00:13:22.039 is a massive hit, losing up to half your sales 00:13:22.039 --> 00:13:24.279 in a specific market in just a few months. That 00:13:24.279 --> 00:13:26.740 destroys profit margins. That shuts down production 00:13:26.740 --> 00:13:29.379 lines entirely. It absolutely does. Imports, 00:13:29.379 --> 00:13:31.320 the actual physical delivery of goods from Russia, 00:13:31.419 --> 00:13:34.700 fell by a third. by May 2014. And the banking 00:13:34.700 --> 00:13:37.139 sector took a massive beating, too. Banks with 00:13:37.139 --> 00:13:39.240 Russian capital operating in Ukraine lost more 00:13:39.240 --> 00:13:41.679 than 50 % of their deposits between January and 00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:44.679 May 2014. So people were literally withdrawing 00:13:44.679 --> 00:13:46.299 their money just to ensure it wasn't sitting 00:13:46.299 --> 00:13:49.220 in a Russian -owned vault? Yes. It was capital 00:13:49.220 --> 00:13:52.740 flight driven entirely by patriotism. And public 00:13:52.740 --> 00:13:56.090 opinion supported it heavily. TNS research from 00:13:56.090 --> 00:14:00.230 spring 2014 showed 52 % of Ukrainians had a positive 00:14:00.230 --> 00:14:03.629 attitude toward the boycott, and 39 % were actively 00:14:03.629 --> 00:14:07.009 participating. By late 2014, participation had 00:14:07.009 --> 00:14:09.789 risen to nearly half the population. That is 00:14:09.789 --> 00:14:12.389 truly impressive for a grassroots movement, but 00:14:12.389 --> 00:14:15.549 surely not everyone was on board with this? I 00:14:15.549 --> 00:14:17.610 have to imagine the big retailers weren't exactly 00:14:17.610 --> 00:14:20.330 thrilled about having empty shelves. No, and 00:14:20.330 --> 00:14:21.889 that is an important part of the story to cover. 00:14:22.220 --> 00:14:24.899 There was criticism and there was pushback. Specifically, 00:14:24.940 --> 00:14:27.340 looking at the retailers in our sources, not 00:14:27.340 --> 00:14:29.639 all of them cleared the shelf. Right. Major chains 00:14:29.639 --> 00:14:31.720 like Akhen, Ukraine and Metro Cash and Carry 00:14:31.720 --> 00:14:33.899 initially refused to support the boycott. What 00:14:33.899 --> 00:14:36.000 was their justification for that? They cited 00:14:36.000 --> 00:14:38.360 an apolitical vision. An apolitical vision. That 00:14:38.360 --> 00:14:41.139 is a really tough stance to hold when your customers 00:14:41.139 --> 00:14:43.379 are falling down, playing dead in aisle four. 00:14:43.600 --> 00:14:46.039 It is. They argued they were just providing everyday 00:14:46.039 --> 00:14:49.120 goods to people. But there were also more philosophical 00:14:49.120 --> 00:14:51.539 counter arguments out there. One that really 00:14:51.539 --> 00:14:53.720 stands out in the research comes from the blogger 00:14:53.720 --> 00:14:56.950 Daniel Ovakovsky. Ah, yes, this was the contrarian 00:14:56.950 --> 00:14:59.129 view. I think it is really important we dig into 00:14:59.129 --> 00:15:01.669 this because it is a sophisticated argument and 00:15:01.669 --> 00:15:04.590 we want to present what the sources say neutrally 00:15:04.590 --> 00:15:07.490 here. We are not taking aside just explaining 00:15:07.490 --> 00:15:10.649 his rationale. Exactly. Vukovsky openly admitted 00:15:10.649 --> 00:15:13.169 to consciously continuing to use Russian Internet 00:15:13.169 --> 00:15:15.909 services and products. His argument was that 00:15:15.909 --> 00:15:18.850 by supporting Russian entrepreneurs, he was helping 00:15:18.850 --> 00:15:21.529 to create a favorable environment for business 00:15:21.529 --> 00:15:25.740 in Russia. So the idea is that commerce civilizes, 00:15:25.779 --> 00:15:27.919 that if you support the business class, they 00:15:27.919 --> 00:15:30.419 might eventually push for a more peaceful, rational 00:15:30.419 --> 00:15:32.559 government from the inside. That is the core 00:15:32.559 --> 00:15:34.899 of it. He admitted it wasn't patriotic in the 00:15:34.899 --> 00:15:37.200 traditional sense, but he argued that engaging 00:15:37.200 --> 00:15:39.379 with Russian business was a way to change the 00:15:39.379 --> 00:15:41.919 world for the better. It is the classic change 00:15:41.919 --> 00:15:44.240 through trade theory, the idea that if nations 00:15:44.240 --> 00:15:46.220 are trading heavily, they are less likely to 00:15:46.220 --> 00:15:49.110 go to war. Which contrasts sharply with the star 00:15:49.110 --> 00:15:51.750 of the beast strategy of the boycott, which basically 00:15:51.750 --> 00:15:54.870 says cut them off until they stop. It is a fascinating 00:15:54.870 --> 00:15:58.009 debate. Does cutting ties stop the aggression 00:15:58.009 --> 00:16:00.789 or does it just harden the resolve of the adversary? 00:16:01.190 --> 00:16:04.029 We see that debate play out in every major sanctions 00:16:04.029 --> 00:16:08.029 regime from Cuba to Iran to Russia. But in this 00:16:08.029 --> 00:16:10.210 specific case, looking at the public support 00:16:10.210 --> 00:16:12.750 numbers we just talked about, the momentum was 00:16:12.750 --> 00:16:15.149 clearly on the side of the boycott. Absolutely. 00:16:15.690 --> 00:16:18.370 The immediate need to defund the military simply 00:16:18.370 --> 00:16:21.070 trumped the long -term theoretical hope of civilizing 00:16:21.070 --> 00:16:23.409 through trade. So what does this all mean for 00:16:23.409 --> 00:16:26.279 us today? We have gone from the cheese war of 00:16:26.279 --> 00:16:29.539 2013 to a global shutdown of banking access. 00:16:29.899 --> 00:16:32.960 It shows the incredible evolution of modern conflict. 00:16:33.159 --> 00:16:35.919 It started with stickers and leaflets, very analog 00:16:35.919 --> 00:16:38.320 grassroots tools. It moved to smartphone apps 00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:40.820 and scanning barcodes, digital tools. And it 00:16:40.820 --> 00:16:42.840 ended up with state level sanctions and global 00:16:42.840 --> 00:16:45.059 corporate withdrawals. It really blurs the line 00:16:45.059 --> 00:16:47.200 between a civilian and a soldier. You do not 00:16:47.200 --> 00:16:49.139 need a rifle to participate. You just need to 00:16:49.139 --> 00:16:51.740 check the label on a can of peas. And that is 00:16:51.740 --> 00:16:55.450 the lasting legacy. of Neku Prereciske. It proved 00:16:55.450 --> 00:16:58.009 that economic resistance isn't just a tool for 00:16:58.009 --> 00:17:00.889 governments and diplomats. It empowered the individual 00:17:00.889 --> 00:17:02.970 citizen to feel like they were doing something 00:17:02.970 --> 00:17:06.390 tangible. When you cannot physically stop a tank, 00:17:06.589 --> 00:17:09.950 you can at least stop a truck delivery. And judging 00:17:09.950 --> 00:17:12.940 by that 50 percent drop in sales. those trucks 00:17:12.940 --> 00:17:15.619 definitely stopped coming. They did. It turned 00:17:15.619 --> 00:17:18.220 the everyday marketplace into a moral battleground. 00:17:18.420 --> 00:17:21.640 It is a wild story, from chocolate wars to blocked 00:17:21.640 --> 00:17:23.960 swift codes. And it leaves us with something 00:17:23.960 --> 00:17:26.059 important to think about regarding the future 00:17:26.059 --> 00:17:29.279 of global disputes. In a hyper -globalized world, 00:17:29.539 --> 00:17:31.599 every purchase you make is essentially a vote. 00:17:31.859 --> 00:17:34.799 We often feel powerless watching the news, but 00:17:34.799 --> 00:17:36.579 this campaign suggests that consumer behavior 00:17:36.579 --> 00:17:39.660 can sometimes move faster and bite harder than 00:17:39.660 --> 00:17:42.369 diplomatic sanctions ever could. It raises a 00:17:42.369 --> 00:17:45.130 really profound question. In the next major conflict, 00:17:45.369 --> 00:17:47.549 how will the barcode be weaponized? Definitely 00:17:47.549 --> 00:17:49.369 something for you to think about the next time 00:17:49.369 --> 00:17:51.109 you are scanning your groceries at the checkout. 00:17:51.430 --> 00:17:53.769 Thank you for listening to this deep dive. Thank 00:17:53.769 --> 00:17:55.390 you for joining us. We will see you next time.