WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.680 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today we are opening 00:00:02.680 --> 00:00:05.639 up a file that honestly feels like it belongs 00:00:05.639 --> 00:00:08.480 in a spy novel. But it's actually straight out 00:00:08.480 --> 00:00:11.480 of the 2025 parliamentary elections in Moldova. 00:00:11.919 --> 00:00:15.539 It's a story about branding, camouflage, and 00:00:15.539 --> 00:00:18.719 the very, very blurry line between being a centrist 00:00:18.719 --> 00:00:22.640 and being, well, a Trojan horse. It really is 00:00:22.640 --> 00:00:24.679 a fascinating case study. I mean, it forces us 00:00:24.679 --> 00:00:27.800 to ask, when a politician uses a word like Europe, 00:00:28.460 --> 00:00:31.460 or freedom, do they mean the same thing you do? 00:00:31.640 --> 00:00:33.899 Or are they using the dictionary of a completely 00:00:33.899 --> 00:00:36.939 different geopolitical power? Exactly. We are 00:00:36.939 --> 00:00:39.320 talking about the alternative block. In Romanian, 00:00:39.520 --> 00:00:42.380 that's bloko politik alternativa. Right. Now, 00:00:42.399 --> 00:00:44.280 on the surface, when they launched in January 00:00:44.280 --> 00:00:46.679 2025, they looked great. They were sort of the 00:00:46.679 --> 00:00:49.200 shiny new toy in Moldovan politics. Yeah. They 00:00:49.200 --> 00:00:51.259 claimed to be pro -European, social democratic 00:00:51.259 --> 00:00:54.340 and green. The whole package. On paper, they 00:00:54.340 --> 00:00:56.299 were the third way. The rational middle ground 00:00:56.299 --> 00:00:58.899 between the West and Russia. Right. But then 00:00:58.899 --> 00:01:00.880 you start digging into the sources we have for 00:01:00.880 --> 00:01:03.579 today. You know, reports in the election, some 00:01:03.579 --> 00:01:06.120 deep analysis from the Carnegie endowment, the 00:01:06.120 --> 00:01:08.640 frantic accusations from their opponents. And 00:01:08.640 --> 00:01:10.799 you realize this wasn't just a simple new party. 00:01:10.980 --> 00:01:13.819 No. The ruling party called them a threat to 00:01:13.819 --> 00:01:16.500 national security. Critics said they were designed 00:01:16.500 --> 00:01:19.840 specifically to sabotage EU accession from the 00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:22.299 inside. And that is the central tension we need 00:01:22.299 --> 00:01:25.519 to unpack. Were they a genuine attempt to create 00:01:25.519 --> 00:01:27.900 a moderate force for people tired of the extremes? 00:01:28.560 --> 00:01:32.120 Or were they a sophisticated strategy to redefine 00:01:32.120 --> 00:01:34.840 what pro -European means in a way that actually 00:01:34.840 --> 00:01:37.920 benefits Moscow? So our mission today is to figure 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:40.599 out who these people are, what they actually 00:01:40.599 --> 00:01:43.239 proposed, and why their emergence caused such 00:01:43.239 --> 00:01:45.700 a massive stir in Eastern Europe. And I think 00:01:45.700 --> 00:01:48.299 the only way to understand alternative is to 00:01:48.299 --> 00:01:50.000 look at the people who built it. Absolutely. 00:01:50.569 --> 00:01:52.290 Because this wasn't a grassroots movement of 00:01:52.290 --> 00:01:54.290 fresh faces. Far from it. It reads like the Avengers 00:01:54.290 --> 00:01:56.810 of the opposition. Yeah. Or maybe the Legion 00:01:56.810 --> 00:01:59.069 of Doom, depending on who you ask. Let's stick 00:01:59.069 --> 00:02:01.670 with heavy hitters for now. Fair enough. So the 00:02:01.670 --> 00:02:06.969 block forms on January 31st, 2025. Yeah. And 00:02:06.969 --> 00:02:09.900 the lineup is stacked. You have Ayan Saban, the 00:02:09.900 --> 00:02:12.259 mayor of Chino. It's a big name. You have Alexander 00:02:12.259 --> 00:02:14.360 Stoyanoglu, who had just run for president in 00:02:14.360 --> 00:02:17.199 2024. You have a former prime minister, Ayan 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:19.659 Jeku, and a former key advisor to a communist 00:02:19.659 --> 00:02:22.340 president, Mark Tichok. It is a very specific 00:02:22.340 --> 00:02:24.780 collection of personalities. You've got the technocrat, 00:02:24.800 --> 00:02:27.319 the prosecutor, the bureaucrat, and the ideologue. 00:02:28.270 --> 00:02:30.310 But what's fascinating here is that while they 00:02:30.310 --> 00:02:33.310 represent different parties, Saban has his national 00:02:33.310 --> 00:02:36.150 alternative movement. Chiku has his party of 00:02:36.150 --> 00:02:38.430 development and consolidation. They all share 00:02:38.430 --> 00:02:41.669 one very specific, very telling trajectory. They 00:02:41.669 --> 00:02:44.289 all migrated from the left, specifically the 00:02:44.289 --> 00:02:46.949 Russia -friendly communist or socialist spheres 00:02:46.949 --> 00:02:50.050 of Moldovan politics. OK, let's break that down. 00:02:50.169 --> 00:02:52.189 Ayan Saban is probably the most visible one here. 00:02:52.349 --> 00:02:55.030 Yes. Saban is the classic example of political 00:02:55.030 --> 00:02:57.370 evolution or, you know, rebranding. He started 00:02:57.370 --> 00:02:59.169 it. as a high -ranking communist. Then he was 00:02:59.169 --> 00:03:00.889 a socialist known for being very aggressive, 00:03:01.069 --> 00:03:04.389 holding megaphones at protests. But then he pivots. 00:03:04.789 --> 00:03:07.669 He becomes the mayor of Tieno, puts on a suit, 00:03:07.849 --> 00:03:10.849 stops shouting, and starts focusing on sidewalks 00:03:10.849 --> 00:03:13.729 and parks. He cultivates this managerial persona. 00:03:14.169 --> 00:03:16.110 The I'm just here to fix the potholes approach. 00:03:16.330 --> 00:03:19.569 Exactly. But his roots are deep in that pro -Russian 00:03:19.569 --> 00:03:23.430 ecosystem. Then you have Ion Chiku, who was prime 00:03:23.430 --> 00:03:26.650 minister under Igor Dodon, a staunchly pro -Russian 00:03:26.650 --> 00:03:29.199 president. And Mark Pichuk. He's in a league 00:03:29.199 --> 00:03:31.699 of his own. He was the gray cardinal of the Communist 00:03:31.699 --> 00:03:34.599 Party for years. So you have this group of people 00:03:34.599 --> 00:03:36.979 who spent decades aligned with Moscow -friendly 00:03:36.979 --> 00:03:40.879 policies suddenly linking arms in 2025 and saying, 00:03:40.960 --> 00:03:43.560 we are the alternative. We are the new centrists. 00:03:43.840 --> 00:03:46.319 And the question the electorate had to ask was, 00:03:46.500 --> 00:03:49.319 is this genuine? Can a leopard change its spots? 00:03:49.460 --> 00:03:51.180 Or is this just a rebranding exercise because 00:03:51.180 --> 00:03:54.280 the old pro -Russia label had become, well, toxic 00:03:54.280 --> 00:03:56.219 after the war in Ukraine? Let's look at what 00:03:56.219 --> 00:03:58.080 they were actually selling. Because if this was 00:03:58.080 --> 00:04:01.280 a trap, the bait was incredibly sweet. Oh, yeah. 00:04:01.400 --> 00:04:03.099 I was reading through their manifesto. And honestly, 00:04:03.199 --> 00:04:04.740 if you didn't know the names attached to it, 00:04:04.780 --> 00:04:06.879 you'd think it was a standard Western European 00:04:06.879 --> 00:04:09.680 social democratic platform. That was the design. 00:04:09.759 --> 00:04:12.439 It was meticulously crafted. They pitched themselves 00:04:12.439 --> 00:04:15.879 as social democrats. They had a strong anti -corruption 00:04:15.879 --> 00:04:18.259 message, which everyone in Moldova wants to hear. 00:04:18.779 --> 00:04:20.879 And the social programs were very specific. They 00:04:20.879 --> 00:04:23.699 didn't just say we help people. They had detailed 00:04:23.699 --> 00:04:26.980 plans for supporting families, the elderly. But 00:04:26.980 --> 00:04:28.920 there was one detail that really caught my eye. 00:04:29.040 --> 00:04:31.060 What was that? They specifically highlighted 00:04:31.060 --> 00:04:34.579 support for people with autism and ADHD. That 00:04:34.579 --> 00:04:37.420 is a very modern, very specific policy choice. 00:04:37.540 --> 00:04:39.959 It signals we care about the neglected details. 00:04:40.220 --> 00:04:43.259 It softens the image. It makes them look compassionate 00:04:43.259 --> 00:04:46.639 and progressive, not like old school Soviet apparatchiks. 00:04:46.800 --> 00:04:48.860 And they also had a green Moldova. program. Right. 00:04:49.279 --> 00:04:51.720 Sustainable development. Again, these are buzzwords 00:04:51.720 --> 00:04:54.279 that appeal to younger voters, to urban voters. 00:04:54.360 --> 00:04:56.560 It's a way of signaling we are modern. We aren't 00:04:56.560 --> 00:04:58.959 stuck in the past. OK, so they have the soft 00:04:58.959 --> 00:05:01.899 policies. But in Moldova, every election eventually 00:05:01.899 --> 00:05:04.819 comes down to the big question. East or West? 00:05:05.399 --> 00:05:08.779 EU or Russia? Always. And the alternative bloc 00:05:08.779 --> 00:05:12.139 explicitly said we are pro -European. They did. 00:05:12.680 --> 00:05:15.569 But. And here is where we have to put on our 00:05:15.569 --> 00:05:17.230 reading glasses. We have to look at the fine 00:05:17.230 --> 00:05:19.930 print. This is what political analysts call the 00:05:19.930 --> 00:05:22.949 yes, but strategy. Yes, we want Europe, but. 00:05:23.129 --> 00:05:26.290 Exactly. They said they wanted to join the EU, 00:05:26.470 --> 00:05:28.529 but they attached conditions to that membership 00:05:28.529 --> 00:05:31.670 that were, frankly, poison pills. Let's unpack 00:05:31.670 --> 00:05:33.970 those. The biggest one was about Transnistria. 00:05:34.170 --> 00:05:37.199 Correct. For context, Transnistria is a breakaway 00:05:37.199 --> 00:05:39.839 region in the east of Moldova. It's been controlled 00:05:39.839 --> 00:05:42.459 by pro -Russian separatists since the early 90s. 00:05:42.480 --> 00:05:45.040 And Russia keeps troops there. It's a frozen 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:47.660 conflict. And the European Union has been pretty 00:05:47.660 --> 00:05:50.040 clear about this recently, right? They said Moldova 00:05:50.040 --> 00:05:53.819 could potentially join the EU without reintegrating 00:05:53.819 --> 00:05:56.339 Transnistria first. Right. The EU learned from 00:05:56.339 --> 00:05:58.959 Cyprus they don't want to give the separatists 00:05:58.959 --> 00:06:01.839 or Moscow a veto over Moldova's future. They 00:06:01.839 --> 00:06:03.959 are willing to integrate the main territory first 00:06:03.959 --> 00:06:06.500 and deal with the frozen conflict later. So the 00:06:06.500 --> 00:06:08.439 EU says, come on in, we'll figure out the border 00:06:08.439 --> 00:06:11.699 issue later. But the alternative bloc said. No. 00:06:11.740 --> 00:06:14.779 They argued that EU membership should only happen 00:06:14.779 --> 00:06:17.620 after the country is reintegrated. We must be 00:06:17.620 --> 00:06:20.790 whole before we are European. Which sounds patriotic 00:06:20.790 --> 00:06:23.490 on the surface. No one left behind. But think 00:06:23.490 --> 00:06:26.769 about the implications. By insisting on reintegration 00:06:26.769 --> 00:06:29.470 first, they are effectively handing the keys 00:06:29.470 --> 00:06:31.889 to Moldova's future back to the separatists and 00:06:31.889 --> 00:06:35.310 to Russia. If Moscow doesn't want Moldova in 00:06:35.310 --> 00:06:38.189 the EU, they just refuse to settle the Transnistria 00:06:38.189 --> 00:06:40.930 issue. And since the alternative bloc made that 00:06:40.930 --> 00:06:43.589 a precondition, Moldova stays out of the EU forever. 00:06:43.990 --> 00:06:47.720 That is actually brilliant. In a dark way. You 00:06:47.720 --> 00:06:50.839 frame an impossible roadblock as a patriotic 00:06:50.839 --> 00:06:53.480 duty. It's a classic stalling tactic disguised 00:06:53.480 --> 00:06:55.540 as principle. And they did the exact same thing 00:06:55.540 --> 00:06:57.480 with the concept of neutrality. This was the 00:06:57.480 --> 00:07:00.259 consolidated neutrality idea. Yes. Now, Moldova 00:07:00.259 --> 00:07:01.800 is already neutral. It's in the Constitution. 00:07:02.360 --> 00:07:04.720 But the alternative bloc campaigned on the idea 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:07.019 that this neutrality needed to be consolidated 00:07:07.019 --> 00:07:09.459 before joining the EU. But the EU isn't NATO. 00:07:09.639 --> 00:07:11.980 It's an economic union. Austria is in the EU 00:07:11.980 --> 00:07:14.620 and they're neutral. Ireland is neutral. Why 00:07:14.620 --> 00:07:16.680 does this matter? Because in the information 00:07:16.680 --> 00:07:19.620 war, Blurring the line between the EU and NATO 00:07:19.620 --> 00:07:22.399 is a key strategy. Analysts pointed out that 00:07:22.399 --> 00:07:25.040 this rhetoric mirrors Russian propaganda perfectly. 00:07:25.420 --> 00:07:28.220 By constantly talking about neutrality in the 00:07:28.220 --> 00:07:31.800 context of the EU, you scare voters. You imply 00:07:31.800 --> 00:07:34.000 that joining the European market somehow puts 00:07:34.000 --> 00:07:36.240 you at military risk? Or that it violates your 00:07:36.240 --> 00:07:40.120 constitution. Yeah. So on the surface, we want 00:07:40.120 --> 00:07:43.680 Europe. But in the details. We want Europe only 00:07:43.680 --> 00:07:45.699 under conditions that are currently impossible 00:07:45.699 --> 00:07:48.819 to meet. Precisely. And that ambiguity allowed 00:07:48.819 --> 00:07:52.379 them to target a very specific type of voter. 00:07:52.480 --> 00:07:54.480 I think some analysts called it the neither nor 00:07:54.480 --> 00:07:56.420 electorate. That's it. People who are stuck in 00:07:56.420 --> 00:07:58.420 the middle. Right. People who are tired of Russia 00:07:58.420 --> 00:08:01.240 and the poverty associated with the past, but 00:08:01.240 --> 00:08:03.220 who are also disappointed with the current pro 00:08:03.220 --> 00:08:05.240 -Western government. Maybe they feel the reforms 00:08:05.240 --> 00:08:07.759 are too painful or they are terrified that the 00:08:07.759 --> 00:08:09.899 war in Ukraine will spill over. The alternative 00:08:09.899 --> 00:08:13.019 bloc offered them a safe harbor. We can be European, 00:08:13.060 --> 00:08:15.920 but on our own terms. No war, no conflict, just 00:08:15.920 --> 00:08:18.100 nice social programs. It sounds very comforting. 00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:20.899 But the ruling party, the Party of Action and 00:08:20.899 --> 00:08:24.240 Solidarity, or PAS, they didn't buy it for a 00:08:24.240 --> 00:08:27.040 second. Not for a second, no. PAS and various 00:08:27.040 --> 00:08:29.040 investigative journalists went on the offensive. 00:08:29.379 --> 00:08:32.860 They labeled them false pro -Europeans and Trojan 00:08:32.860 --> 00:08:35.340 horses, and they started pulling out the receipts. 00:08:35.480 --> 00:08:37.340 Oh, the receipts were long. I was looking at 00:08:37.340 --> 00:08:40.799 the background of Eon Seban again. In 2014, when 00:08:40.799 --> 00:08:43.159 Moldova was signing its initial association agreement 00:08:43.159 --> 00:08:46.340 with the EU. The first big step west. Ziban wasn't 00:08:46.340 --> 00:08:48.419 just skeptical. He was literally protesting in 00:08:48.419 --> 00:08:51.240 Brussels against it. And he promoted referendums 00:08:51.240 --> 00:08:53.700 in Gagasia that sought independence and alignment 00:08:53.700 --> 00:08:55.620 with the Russia -led customs union. That's a 00:08:55.620 --> 00:08:57.559 pretty clear track record. And then you have 00:08:57.559 --> 00:09:01.600 Mark Tackett. This part blew my mind. In September 00:09:01.600 --> 00:09:05.179 2025, right before the election, he publicly 00:09:05.179 --> 00:09:08.120 stated that the COSAC memorandum from 2003 should 00:09:08.120 --> 00:09:10.059 have been signed. That was a huge controversy, 00:09:10.299 --> 00:09:12.519 and it really let the mask slip for a moment. 00:09:12.799 --> 00:09:14.779 Okay, for our listeners who might not be experts 00:09:14.779 --> 00:09:17.960 on 2003 Moldovan treaties, what was the COSAC 00:09:17.960 --> 00:09:20.460 memorandum? It was a plan proposed by Russia 00:09:20.460 --> 00:09:23.679 to settle the Transnistria conflict. But the 00:09:23.679 --> 00:09:25.980 terms were devastating for Moldova's sovereignty. 00:09:26.299 --> 00:09:28.620 It would have federalized the country. giving 00:09:28.620 --> 00:09:31.379 Transnistria veto power over national decisions. 00:09:31.740 --> 00:09:34.879 And crucially, it would have kept Russian military 00:09:34.879 --> 00:09:38.399 bases in Moldova for another 20 years. So it 00:09:38.399 --> 00:09:40.779 would have legally turned Moldova into a Russian 00:09:40.779 --> 00:09:43.350 satellite state. Essentially, yes. It was widely 00:09:43.350 --> 00:09:46.730 seen as a bullet Moldova dodged. But here's Tikhchik 00:09:46.730 --> 00:09:50.710 in 2025 running on a pro -European ticket saying, 00:09:50.750 --> 00:09:53.029 we should have signed it. It was a mistake not 00:09:53.029 --> 00:09:55.710 to. That is incredible. I want to join Europe, 00:09:55.789 --> 00:09:58.230 but I really wish we had locked in Russian troops 00:09:58.230 --> 00:10:00.850 for two decades. It certainly complicates the 00:10:00.850 --> 00:10:03.090 branding. This statement actually sparked protests 00:10:03.090 --> 00:10:05.950 by war veterans just days later. It reminded 00:10:05.950 --> 00:10:08.049 everyone exactly who these people used to be. 00:10:08.460 --> 00:10:10.299 And then you have Alexander Stoyanov, the former 00:10:10.299 --> 00:10:13.240 presidential candidate. He boycotted the 2024 00:10:13.240 --> 00:10:16.340 EU referendum. He claimed he wasn't against Europe, 00:10:16.379 --> 00:10:18.120 just against the government holding the vote. 00:10:18.159 --> 00:10:20.080 But, you know, when you boycott the actual vote 00:10:20.080 --> 00:10:22.399 on European integration, actions tend to speak 00:10:22.399 --> 00:10:25.500 louder than nuances. However, I think it's really 00:10:25.500 --> 00:10:28.080 important to bring in some balance here because 00:10:28.080 --> 00:10:30.980 it's easy to just say, OK, they are Russian spies. 00:10:31.549 --> 00:10:33.789 It's more complex. The Carnegie Endowment for 00:10:33.789 --> 00:10:36.490 International Peace had a more nuanced take. 00:10:36.629 --> 00:10:38.950 They didn't just paint them as puppets. No, and 00:10:38.950 --> 00:10:41.049 this is a crucial distinction if we want to understand 00:10:41.049 --> 00:10:43.509 the modern political landscape. The Carnegie 00:10:43.509 --> 00:10:46.169 analysts noted that there is no evidence that 00:10:46.169 --> 00:10:49.190 the alternative bloc is supported by Russia in 00:10:49.190 --> 00:10:52.289 the same direct way as, say, the Shore Party. 00:10:52.549 --> 00:10:55.450 The Shore Party being the ones who are essentially 00:10:55.450 --> 00:10:57.830 caught trying to buy votes with bags of cash. 00:10:58.269 --> 00:11:02.009 Right. Those are proxies, paid actors. The alternative 00:11:02.009 --> 00:11:04.690 bloc appears to be more organic. They represent 00:11:04.690 --> 00:11:08.190 a genuine segment of the Moldovan elite businessmen, 00:11:08.269 --> 00:11:10.509 former officials who are skeptical of the West. 00:11:10.769 --> 00:11:13.269 They have business ties to the East or they just 00:11:13.269 --> 00:11:15.610 culturally align more with Russia. But they also 00:11:15.610 --> 00:11:17.929 know they can't win elections by being openly 00:11:17.929 --> 00:11:20.970 pro -Putin anymore. So they aren't taking orders 00:11:20.970 --> 00:11:23.690 from a handler in Moscow. They're just acting 00:11:23.690 --> 00:11:25.970 in their own self -interest, which happens to 00:11:25.970 --> 00:11:29.259 align with Moscow. Exactly. And Carnegie argued 00:11:29.259 --> 00:11:31.940 that the Trojan horse label was partly a campaign 00:11:31.940 --> 00:11:35.179 tactic by the ruling party. By painting the alternative 00:11:35.179 --> 00:11:38.220 bloc as Russian agents, the government was trying 00:11:38.220 --> 00:11:41.759 to consolidate the pro -European vote. It polarizes 00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:44.259 the landscape. Basically saying, if you don't 00:11:44.259 --> 00:11:45.899 vote for us, you're voting for the enemy. It 00:11:45.899 --> 00:11:48.480 leaves no room for a loyal opposition. You're 00:11:48.480 --> 00:11:51.059 either with us or against the country. Right. 00:11:51.220 --> 00:11:53.340 And that polarization can be dangerous, too. 00:11:53.930 --> 00:11:56.509 But just when the debate about their ideology 00:11:56.509 --> 00:11:58.929 was getting nuanced, we got hit with a good old 00:11:58.929 --> 00:12:01.409 -fashioned scandal. The ballot scandal. This 00:12:01.409 --> 00:12:03.309 is where the story turns into a crime thriller. 00:12:03.870 --> 00:12:07.990 September 24, 2025, four days before the election. 00:12:08.129 --> 00:12:10.370 It was a bombshell. Police raided a printing 00:12:10.370 --> 00:12:13.710 shop in China based on an intelligence tip. And 00:12:13.710 --> 00:12:16.190 inside, they find a stack of 200 election ballots. 00:12:16.590 --> 00:12:19.169 Now, finding ballots in a print shop is normal 00:12:19.169 --> 00:12:21.429 if they're printing them legally, but these weren't. 00:12:21.450 --> 00:12:23.889 No. First off, private print shops shouldn't 00:12:23.889 --> 00:12:26.269 be printing official ballots. Second, these weren't 00:12:26.269 --> 00:12:28.629 blank. They were already stamped voted for the 00:12:28.629 --> 00:12:31.269 alternative block. OK, so the prime minister 00:12:31.269 --> 00:12:34.350 and the police immediately come out and describe 00:12:34.350 --> 00:12:37.250 a carousel scheme. I think we need to explain 00:12:37.250 --> 00:12:40.070 this because it's a very specific piece of election 00:12:40.070 --> 00:12:43.169 fraud tradecraft. How does a carousel work? It's 00:12:43.169 --> 00:12:45.870 a clever, dirty way to guarantee that a bought 00:12:45.870 --> 00:12:49.009 vote stays bought. See, if I pay you 50 euros 00:12:49.009 --> 00:12:51.940 to vote for my party. i have a problem what's 00:12:51.940 --> 00:12:54.200 that you could take my money go into the booth 00:12:54.200 --> 00:12:56.860 and vote for someone else the secret ballot protects 00:12:56.860 --> 00:12:59.500 you right i can promise you anything but once 00:12:59.500 --> 00:13:02.059 the curtain closes i vote my conscience exactly 00:13:02.059 --> 00:13:05.500 the carousel breaks that protection here's how 00:13:05.500 --> 00:13:08.679 it works the organizer gives you the paid voter 00:13:08.679 --> 00:13:11.600 a fake or stolen ballot outside the polling station 00:13:11.600 --> 00:13:15.309 but this ballot is already marked for their candidate. 00:13:15.470 --> 00:13:17.509 Like the ones the police found. Exactly. You 00:13:17.509 --> 00:13:19.309 hide this pre -marked ballot in your jacket, 00:13:19.450 --> 00:13:21.590 walk into the polling station, show your ID, 00:13:21.769 --> 00:13:24.809 and the poll workers give you a real clean blank 00:13:24.809 --> 00:13:27.429 ballot. So now I have two ballots, the clean 00:13:27.429 --> 00:13:29.269 one in my hand, the pre -marked one in my pocket. 00:13:29.450 --> 00:13:32.610 You go into the voting booth, but you don't mark 00:13:32.610 --> 00:13:34.889 the clean one. You put it in your pocket, you 00:13:34.889 --> 00:13:36.730 pull out the pre -marked ballot you brought in, 00:13:36.809 --> 00:13:39.570 and you drop that one in the ballot box. So the 00:13:39.570 --> 00:13:43.440 vote is cast for the organizer's candidate. And 00:13:43.440 --> 00:13:45.259 what happens to the clean ballot? And here's 00:13:45.259 --> 00:13:47.759 the key. You walk out of the station with the 00:13:47.759 --> 00:13:50.820 clean blank official ballot in your pocket. You 00:13:50.820 --> 00:13:52.740 meet the organizer around the corner. You give 00:13:52.740 --> 00:13:55.379 him the blank ballot and he pays you. And then 00:13:55.379 --> 00:13:57.899 he marks that blank ballot and gives it to the 00:13:57.899 --> 00:14:00.000 next person in line. And the carousel turns. 00:14:00.480 --> 00:14:03.740 It's effective because the organizer gets physical 00:14:03.740 --> 00:14:06.980 proof, the blank ballot, that the previous person 00:14:06.980 --> 00:14:10.279 did their job. So when the police find... 200 00:14:10.279 --> 00:14:13.600 pre -stamped ballots? That isn't just 200 votes. 00:14:13.820 --> 00:14:17.059 That is the starter fuel for 200 different carousels 00:14:17.059 --> 00:14:19.299 that could run all day. That was the accusation. 00:14:19.399 --> 00:14:22.299 It implies an industrial scale of fraud. Now 00:14:22.299 --> 00:14:24.100 surely the alternative bloc didn't just say, 00:14:24.139 --> 00:14:26.330 whoops, you caught us. What was their defense? 00:14:26.649 --> 00:14:29.289 Ian Seban was furious. He admitted the materials 00:14:29.289 --> 00:14:31.409 were theirs, but he claimed they were just models, 00:14:31.590 --> 00:14:34.870 like samples for campaign advertising, brochures 00:14:34.870 --> 00:14:36.789 to show elderly people what the ballot would 00:14:36.789 --> 00:14:38.789 look like and where to stamp. He demanded an 00:14:38.789 --> 00:14:41.190 apology from the police for seizing his educational 00:14:41.190 --> 00:14:44.289 materials. Officer, these lookalike ballots are 00:14:44.289 --> 00:14:47.279 just for practice. The problem was the Central 00:14:47.279 --> 00:14:49.700 Electoral Commission and the Ministry of Education 00:14:49.700 --> 00:14:52.100 pointed out that these models looked identical 00:14:52.100 --> 00:14:54.779 to real ballots. And under Moldovan law, you 00:14:54.779 --> 00:14:56.940 cannot distribute campaign material that mimics 00:14:56.940 --> 00:14:59.720 a ballot because it misleads voters. So whether 00:14:59.720 --> 00:15:02.059 it was for a criminal carousel scheme or just 00:15:02.059 --> 00:15:04.659 incredibly deceptive advertising, it was illegal. 00:15:04.940 --> 00:15:07.500 Completely illegal. And happening four days before 00:15:07.500 --> 00:15:10.740 the vote, it cast a huge shadow over their clean 00:15:10.740 --> 00:15:13.779 hands anti -corruption message. So despite all 00:15:13.779 --> 00:15:16.580 of this. The controversy, the confusing messaging, 00:15:16.679 --> 00:15:19.879 the yes -but platform, the police raids. People 00:15:19.879 --> 00:15:22.539 still voted. The election happened. What was 00:15:22.539 --> 00:15:24.860 the verdict? The alternative bloc received 125 00:15:24.860 --> 00:15:29.779 ,706 votes. That's 7 .96 % of the total. Almost 00:15:29.779 --> 00:15:32.820 8%. That's not a landslide, but in a fragmented 00:15:32.820 --> 00:15:35.659 parliamentary system, that's real power. It secured 00:15:35.659 --> 00:15:38.799 them eight seats out of 101 in parliament. That 00:15:38.799 --> 00:15:40.799 made them the third largest force in the legislature. 00:15:41.470 --> 00:15:43.649 they became the kingmakers, potentially. And 00:15:43.649 --> 00:15:46.509 then immediately after winning, Ayan Seban pulls 00:15:46.509 --> 00:15:49.370 a move that I think surprised no one who follows 00:15:49.370 --> 00:15:51.809 the cynical side of politics. The classic bait 00:15:51.809 --> 00:15:54.450 and switch. Seban was the face of the campaign. 00:15:54.669 --> 00:15:56.710 He was number one on a list. His photo was on 00:15:56.710 --> 00:15:59.169 every billboard. But as soon as the results were 00:15:59.169 --> 00:16:01.529 confirmed, he announced he would refuse his seat 00:16:01.529 --> 00:16:04.049 in parliament to remain the mayor of Chino. So 00:16:04.049 --> 00:16:07.169 he used his personal popularity to drag the party 00:16:07.169 --> 00:16:09.389 across the finish line. Yeah. Then step back. 00:16:09.509 --> 00:16:12.049 It's a loophole. He knows he is more powerful 00:16:12.049 --> 00:16:15.730 as mayor than as one of 101 MPs. But for the 00:16:15.730 --> 00:16:17.850 voters who supported the alternative specifically 00:16:17.850 --> 00:16:21.110 because they trusted Sivan, well, they felt a 00:16:21.110 --> 00:16:23.450 bit used. So now we have this new landscape in 00:16:23.450 --> 00:16:25.590 Moldova. You have the ruling PAS party. You have 00:16:25.590 --> 00:16:28.009 the socialists. And now you have this eight -seat 00:16:28.009 --> 00:16:29.649 block of alternatives sitting in the middle. 00:16:29.929 --> 00:16:32.379 Where do they stand now? They are firmly in the 00:16:32.379 --> 00:16:35.139 opposition. But the reactions tell you everything 00:16:35.139 --> 00:16:38.600 about their ambiguity. The socialists, the openly 00:16:38.600 --> 00:16:40.879 pro -Russian party, welcome them with open arms. 00:16:41.179 --> 00:16:44.100 Igor Dodon saw them as a fantastic wedge to split 00:16:44.100 --> 00:16:46.679 the pro -European vote. The enemy of my enemy 00:16:46.679 --> 00:16:50.379 is my friend. Exactly. Meanwhile, PAS continues 00:16:50.379 --> 00:16:52.600 to treat them as a pro -Russian force in disguise. 00:16:52.879 --> 00:16:55.200 And the smaller parties, the ones that actually 00:16:55.200 --> 00:16:57.360 are centrist or pro -European but didn't make 00:16:57.360 --> 00:17:00.159 the threshold, they are. furious. They feel the 00:17:00.159 --> 00:17:02.580 alternative bloc sucked up all the oxygen in 00:17:02.580 --> 00:17:05.500 the room. So what does this all mean? If we step 00:17:05.500 --> 00:17:07.920 back from the specific names and numbers of 2025, 00:17:08.440 --> 00:17:10.720 what does the alternative phenomenon tell us 00:17:10.720 --> 00:17:12.380 about the world we live in? It tells us that 00:17:12.380 --> 00:17:14.400 the battle lines in Eastern Europe and really 00:17:14.400 --> 00:17:16.960 in democracies everywhere are shifting. It used 00:17:16.960 --> 00:17:19.519 to be very binary. Right. Pro -West versus pro 00:17:19.519 --> 00:17:21.720 -East. Blue flags versus red flags. It was easy 00:17:21.720 --> 00:17:24.819 to tell who was who. Now it's about redefinition. 00:17:24.839 --> 00:17:27.900 It's about mimicry. The alternative block showed 00:17:27.900 --> 00:17:30.380 that you can carve out a space by using the language 00:17:30.380 --> 00:17:33.480 of your opponent. They used European integration 00:17:33.480 --> 00:17:36.440 as a slogan, but they filled it with caveats 00:17:36.440 --> 00:17:38.680 and conditions that aligned perfectly with Russian 00:17:38.680 --> 00:17:41.400 interests. It's like a political deepfake. In 00:17:41.400 --> 00:17:44.819 a way, yes. It's a form of hybrid political warfare. 00:17:45.420 --> 00:17:47.640 It's not just about misinformation. It's about 00:17:47.640 --> 00:17:49.900 confusing the fundamental terms of the debate. 00:17:50.079 --> 00:17:52.599 Right. If everyone claims to be pro -European. 00:17:52.960 --> 00:17:54.779 But one side means integration with the West, 00:17:54.980 --> 00:17:57.839 and the other side means integration eventually, 00:17:58.220 --> 00:18:01.960 maybe, but only if Russia agrees, the voter becomes 00:18:01.960 --> 00:18:04.480 disoriented. And that disorientation creates 00:18:04.480 --> 00:18:07.480 apathy. And apathy is a weapon. If you can't 00:18:07.480 --> 00:18:09.319 convince people to love Russia, you just need 00:18:09.319 --> 00:18:11.240 to confuse them enough that they stop fighting 00:18:11.240 --> 00:18:14.019 for Europe. Stalling becomes the victory. You 00:18:14.019 --> 00:18:15.980 don't need a majority to block EU accession. 00:18:16.000 --> 00:18:18.319 You just need enough seats and enough conditions 00:18:18.319 --> 00:18:21.200 to grind the gears to a halt. That is a sobering 00:18:21.200 --> 00:18:23.420 thought. It's not just about who wins the election, 00:18:23.579 --> 00:18:26.339 but about how the definitions of words change. 00:18:26.559 --> 00:18:28.539 And how the game is played. Well, that brings 00:18:28.539 --> 00:18:30.940 us to the end of this deep dive. It's a complex 00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:33.700 story from a small country, but I think the lessons 00:18:33.700 --> 00:18:36.420 here apply to any democracy facing external pressure. 00:18:36.779 --> 00:18:38.980 Absolutely. I want to leave you, the listener, 00:18:39.160 --> 00:18:42.480 with a question to chew on. In a world of hybrid 00:18:42.480 --> 00:18:44.940 warfare and sophisticated political branding, 00:18:45.160 --> 00:18:48.640 how do you distinguish between a politician having 00:18:48.640 --> 00:18:51.740 a genuine change of heart and a strategic disguise. 00:18:52.420 --> 00:18:54.900 When someone says they want the same future you 00:18:54.900 --> 00:18:57.180 do, are you sure they're looking at the same 00:18:57.180 --> 00:18:59.680 map? That's the million -dollar question. Thanks 00:18:59.680 --> 00:19:01.559 for listening. We'll catch you on the next Deep 00:19:01.559 --> 00:19:01.880 Dive.