WEBVTT

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Axis of evil. It's just three words, right? But

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they have this incredible weight. You hear them

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and you're instantly taken back to the early

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2000s. Oh, absolutely. That, you know, grainy

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news footage, the constant tension of that whole

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post 9 -11 world. It sounds less like foreign

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policy and more like the title of a summer blockbuster.

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It does. It has a very cinematic quality. It's

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dramatic. It's memorable. And it's absolute.

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But as we were digging through the sources for

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today, you know, the memoirs, the diplomatic

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cables, what really jumps out is that those three

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words weren't just some catchy soundbite. They

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were a pivot point. They fundamentally rewired

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American foreign policy. And I'd argue they kind

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of froze our diplomatic imagination for a generation.

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That's exactly. what we're getting into today.

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We're not just, you know, recounting the speech.

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We're trying to unpack the black box of how this

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very specific phrase was engineered. And why

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those countries. Exactly. Why those wildly different

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countries got glued together and the huge diplomatic

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fallout that was happening behind the scenes.

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Stuff the public really didn't see for years.

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We're going to look at how a speechwriter trying

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to channel FDR, of all people, ended up, maybe

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accidentally, sabotaging a secret back channel

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with Iran. And how the term has sort of zombie

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walked its way back into politics today in 2024

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with a whole new cast of characters. The mission

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here really is to move beyond the slogan. Right.

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We all know the phrase, but the logic they use

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to justify linking Iran, Iraq and North Korea

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was actually quite specific. And it was highly

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controversial, even inside the White House itself.

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So let's set the scene. It's January 29, 2002.

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The State of the Union address. And context is

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everything here. We are less than five months

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out from the September 11th attacks. The rubble

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at ground zero is arguably still smoldering in

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the national psyche. The war in Afghanistan is

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underway. The Taliban's on the run. And President

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George W. Bush steps up to the podium to basically

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define the next phase of the war on terror. The

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atmosphere in that room and in the country was

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just electric. You have to remember, the nation

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was unified in this mix of fear and resolve.

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And Bush needed to explain that the threat wasn't

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just a stateless group like al -Qaeda hiding

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out in caves. He wanted to pivot. To pivot the

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focus to state sponsors. Exactly. And he names

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names. He specifically calls out North Korea,

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Iran, and Iraq. He accuses them of seeking weapons

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of mass destruction, of threatening world peace.

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And then he drops the hammer. States like these

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and their terrorist allies constitute an axis

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of evil. It was a thunderclap. But this is where

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the research gets so fascinating because we assume

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this phrase came from, I don't know, a room full

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of generals looking at a map. But it didn't.

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Not at all. It came from a laptop in a speechwriter's

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office. This is the David Frum story. And I was

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reading his memoirs on this. He was a speechwriter

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for Bush. And he gets this assignment from the

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head speechwriter, Michael Gerson. So it sounds

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almost impossible. Right. Gerson tells him, make

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the case for removing Saddam Hussein, but do

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it in like two sentences. So where does he go

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for inspiration? He goes back to FDR. He starts

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rereading the date, which will live in infamy

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speech. Pearl Harbor speech. Yeah. From 1941,

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he was looking for a historical template, a way

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to rally a nation against a threat that came

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from multiple directions. But that comparison,

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I mean, it's pretty fraught with problems, isn't

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it? In 1941, you had Germany and Japan. These

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were industrial giants, global military powers.

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Right. In 2002, you have Iraq, which was sanctioned

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and contained. And Iran. Regional power, sure,

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but not exactly the Third Reich. It feels like

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a huge stretch. It was a massive rhetorical leap,

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no question. He latched onto this really specific

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psychological detail from the World War II dynamic.

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He realized that the original Axis powers, Germany,

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Japan, Italy, they didn't actually like each

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other. They didn't really trust each other or

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coordinate strategy. Berlin and Tokyo weren't,

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you know, syncing up their invasions. It was

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a total marriage of convenience. So the lack

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of trust between them was the feature, not the

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bug of the analogy. Precisely. That was Frum's

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whole point. His argument was that even if Iran,

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Iraq and North Korea weren't allies, in fact,

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even if they hated each other, they shared this

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resentment of the West and a desire to disrupt

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the global order. And in the first draft, he

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called it the axis of hatred. Axis of hatred.

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It lands so differently, doesn't it? It sounds.

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emotional yeah almost manageable and that is

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the crucial distinction because you can negotiate

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with hatred hatred is a human feeling it can

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cool down you can manage it with diplomacy yeah

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but when President Bush changed it to axis of

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evil to make it sound more resolute more theological,

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he changed the entire strategic landscape. Because

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you can't negotiate with evil. Exactly. Or rather,

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you shouldn't. Evil is an absolute. You have

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to destroy evil or contain it until it collapses

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on itself. By shifting the language from, say,

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political opposition to moral theology, the administration

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basically signaled that diplomacy was off the

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table. It kind of cornered them, didn't it? It

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did, into a stance of permanent confrontation.

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And the grouping itself, I mean the actual members

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of this club, drew immediate fire from foreign

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policy realists. Gripping Iran and Iraq together.

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Well, yeah. They had just spent the entire 1980s

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killing each other. Yeah. In one of the most

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brutal wars of the 20th century. Saddam and the

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Ayatollahs were mortal enemies. That was the

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big enemy of my enemy criticism. It confused

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everyone in the region. To the Iranians, being

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lumped in with Saddam Hussein was just, it was

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insulting. And then you throw in North Korea,

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a hermit kingdom in East Asia with zero connection

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to the other two. Right. And it just looked like

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a grab bag of bad act. not a coherent alliance.

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Plus, the 9 -11 connection was so thin, none

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of the hijackers were from these countries. Al

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-Qaeda was Sunni extremist. Iran is a Shia theocracy

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that saw Al -Qaeda as a direct threat. All that

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nuance just got completely flattened. Flattened

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is the perfect word. But the tragedy of this

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flattening isn't just academic. And this, for

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me, this brings us to the most heartbreaking

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part of the entire research file. The story of

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Ryan Crocker. This part. This just blew my mind.

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So Ryan Crocker is a senior State Department

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official. And the sources show that right after

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9 -11, while the dust is still settling, he's

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on a plane to Geneva for secret meetings. And

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who is he meeting with? Iranian diplomats. This

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is the great sliding doors moment of modern history.

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For months, the U .S. and Iran were cooperating.

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They had a shared enemy in the Taliban. Iran

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hated the Taliban. Of course. So in Geneva, you

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have... Iranian diplomats sitting across from

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Crocker, literally spreading out maps, pointing

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out Taliban positions, sharing intelligence.

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The sources even say the Iranians offered to

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rescue downed American pilots if it came to that.

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This wasn't just talk. This is real operational

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support. It was real politic inaction, a convergence

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of interests. And then. The State of the Union

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happens. Crocker's in Geneva. He's building this

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fragile trust. And suddenly the president goes

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on global television and declares Iran part of

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the axis of evil. And the door just slams shut

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instantly. The Iranian diplomats were humiliated.

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Oh, I can't imagine. They'd gone out on a limb

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with their own hardliners in Tehran to engage

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with the great Satan, hoping for a real thaw.

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And they just got slapped in the face. The hardliners

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back in Tehran, the guys who chant death to America,

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they basically got to turn to the moderates and

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say. We told you so. We told. you so you can't

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trust them they think we're evil it completely

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killed the reformist movement in iran for that

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entire cycle president katami who's a moderate

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he expressed sympathy for 9 11 victims there

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were actual candlelight vigils in tehran wow

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and this speech just validated the hardliner

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narrative and from that point on iran accelerates

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its nuclear program and its support for proxies

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It became a self -fulfilling prophecy. We called

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them an enemy, so they started acting like one.

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And the term didn't even stop there. It sort

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of became a franchise, didn't it? A few months

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later, you have John Bolton giving a speech called

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Beyond the Axis of Evil. Oh, yeah. Adding Libya,

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Syria, and Cuba to the list. It's like they were

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expanding the cinematic universe of rogue states.

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And in response, the quote unquote villains organized.

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Iran eventually formalized its own network of

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proxies. Hezbollah, Hamas, militias in Iraq and

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Syria. And they explicitly called it the axis

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of resistance. They just took the rhetoric and

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flipped it right back. You're going to call us

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an axis. We'll be an axis. They lean into it.

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Which brings us to today. Yeah. Because the phrase

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just refuses to die. We're seeing it resurrected

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now in 2024. But the cast of characters has changed

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a lot. This is the new axis of evil. You hear

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it from figures like Senator Mitch McConnell,

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Speaker Mike Johnson. They're using it to describe

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the alignment of China, Russia, Iran and North

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Korea. But this is where we really have to slow

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down and analyze the structure. Right. The original

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axis was defined by weakness and isolation. Yes.

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Iran and Iraq were contained. This new axis,

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though. China is an economic superpower. Russia

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is a nuclear giant. This isn't just a list of

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countries we don't like. This feels like a genuine

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rival bloc. That's the critical difference. The

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new axis argument suggests a level of interdependence

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that just didn't exist in 2002. I mean, look

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at the war in Ukraine. You have Iranian drones

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being used by the Russian military. You have

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North Korea shipping artillery shells to the

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front lines. You have China providing the economic

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lifeline that's keeping the Russian economy afloat

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despite all the sanctions. So unlike that marriage

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of convenience from described, where Germany

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and Japan barely talked, these guys are actually

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trading hardware. They're keeping each other's

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economies alive. It's become transactional. And

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it's strategic. British General Sir Patrick Sanders

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just made this point in July of 2024, arguing

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this new quartet is actually more interdependent

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and more aligned than the original Axis powers

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of World War II ever were. That is, that is a

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terrifying thought. The idea that we've gone

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from containing isolated rogue states to facing

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a coordinated nuclear armed flock. But we have

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to be careful with the label. Are they an Axis

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in an ideological sense? Does China really share

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a worldview with the theocracy in Tehran? Probably

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not. No. China wants global stability for trade.

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Iran often thrives on asymmetric chaos. Russia

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wants to rebuild an empire. North Korea just

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wants regime survival. So it's still a marriage

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of convenience, just a much more dangerous one.

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They're united by what they're against American

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power, not what they're for. Exactly. But the

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danger of using the axis of evil term again is

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that it might have the exact same effect it had

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in 2002. It groups them together. If we treat

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them as a monolith, we might just push them closer

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together. It's that self -fulfilling prophecy

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all over again. You tell four guys in a bar that

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they're a gang, you're going to fight. Well,

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they're probably going to start acting like a

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gang. And that overlooks the opportunities to

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split them apart. I mean, real politic would

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suggest you try to peel China away from Russia,

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not lump them together. But the Axis rhetoric,

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it just flattens all that nuance. It demands

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a crusade. OK, before we get too heavy on the...

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impending geopolitical doom. Right. We have to

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talk about how the phrase didn't just stay in

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the Situation Room. It bled into pop culture

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in some really weird and interesting ways. It

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became a punchline almost instantly. When you

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use language that's that high drama, comedians

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are just going to feast on it. The Axis of Evil

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comedy tour was huge. Yeah. Mosh Dobrani. Ahmed

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Ahmed. Yeah. They took this terrifying label

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and just defanged it through humor. It was a

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way for Middle Eastern communities to sort of

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process the demonization. But there was also

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a softer side to the cultural reaction. There

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was that Norwegian music project. Lullabies from

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the axis of evil. Right. In 2003. They recorded

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women from Iran, Iraq and North Korea singing

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traditional lullabies to their babies. It was

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such a simple, subversive idea. You have the

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president saying these nations are evil with

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a capital E. And then you just hear a mother

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in Baghdad singing to her child. It forces you

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to remember a nation isn't just its regime. It

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puts the humanity back. Exactly. And of course,

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the axis of weasels. The axis of weasels. That

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was aimed at France and Germany for not supporting

00:12:16.820 --> 00:12:20.080
the Iraq invasion. It just shows how that grammatical

00:12:20.080 --> 00:12:22.879
structure. axis of blank became the template

00:12:22.879 --> 00:12:25.299
for anything we didn't like. So to bring it all

00:12:25.299 --> 00:12:28.340
back, we started with the speechwriter in 2001

00:12:28.340 --> 00:12:32.279
trying to solve a puzzle. How to convince Americans

00:12:32.279 --> 00:12:36.100
to worry about Iraq. He reaches for a WWII analogy.

00:12:36.340 --> 00:12:40.220
He swaps hatred for evil. And in doing so, he

00:12:40.220 --> 00:12:44.399
defines a decade of war and completely unintentionally

00:12:44.399 --> 00:12:46.919
torpedoes this incredible moment of potential

00:12:46.919 --> 00:12:50.120
peace with Iran. It's a profound lesson in the...

00:12:50.320 --> 00:12:52.940
I guess the lethality of language. Words and

00:12:52.940 --> 00:12:54.779
foreign policy aren't just descriptions, they're

00:12:54.779 --> 00:12:57.659
actions. Calling a country evil isn't just name

00:12:57.659 --> 00:13:00.159
-calling, it's a policy decision. It sets a trajectory

00:13:00.159 --> 00:13:02.580
that's incredibly hard to reverse. It really

00:13:02.580 --> 00:13:05.360
is. And now, as we hear new axes of evil being

00:13:05.360 --> 00:13:07.779
thrown around about China and Russia, we have

00:13:07.779 --> 00:13:10.149
to ask ourselves, Are we describing a reality

00:13:10.149 --> 00:13:12.669
or are we creating one? That's the question,

00:13:12.750 --> 00:13:14.850
isn't it? Are we seeing a genuine coordination

00:13:14.850 --> 00:13:17.870
of evil or are we using a lazy historical analogy

00:13:17.870 --> 00:13:20.009
that blinds us to the very different motivations

00:13:20.009 --> 00:13:22.370
of each of those countries? Because if we treat

00:13:22.370 --> 00:13:24.269
them like a single monster. You might just ensure

00:13:24.269 --> 00:13:26.549
they become one. It's a lot to think about. The

00:13:26.549 --> 00:13:29.610
next time you hear a politician drop a catchy

00:13:29.610 --> 00:13:32.990
historical phrase, maybe check the footnotes.

00:13:33.549 --> 00:13:35.850
Thanks for diving in with us today. Always a

00:13:35.850 --> 00:13:36.029
pleasure.
