WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.560 I want you to picture a drive. And, you know, 00:00:02.640 --> 00:00:04.240 it's probably a drive you've done a hundred times 00:00:04.240 --> 00:00:06.000 without even really thinking about what you were 00:00:06.000 --> 00:00:08.460 seeing. You start right in the city center. It's 00:00:08.460 --> 00:00:10.859 tight. It's loud. You're in those canyons of 00:00:10.859 --> 00:00:13.679 steel and glass. Right. The urban core. Exactly. 00:00:14.259 --> 00:00:17.079 Then you drive out. You pass that inner ring. 00:00:17.260 --> 00:00:19.440 You know, the older houses, the really dense 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:21.899 neighborhoods. Then you hit the highway. The 00:00:21.899 --> 00:00:24.640 main artery out. Yeah. The arterial bleed. And 00:00:24.640 --> 00:00:27.879 for, I don't know, the next 20, 30 minutes. It's 00:00:27.879 --> 00:00:31.699 the classic American suburb. It's almost comforting 00:00:31.699 --> 00:00:34.159 in its familiarity. Totally. You know exactly 00:00:34.159 --> 00:00:37.380 what to expect. The strip malls, the big box 00:00:37.380 --> 00:00:40.399 stores, the car dealerships with those wacky 00:00:40.399 --> 00:00:42.759 inflatable tube men. Those nine gorillas, yeah. 00:00:42.939 --> 00:00:45.799 You know exactly where you are. But then you 00:00:45.799 --> 00:00:48.740 keep driving and the landscape, it starts to... 00:00:49.560 --> 00:00:51.719 It starts to glitch. Glitch is the perfect word 00:00:51.719 --> 00:00:54.380 for it. It stops making linear sense. It really 00:00:54.380 --> 00:00:56.799 does. You pass the last big shopping complex 00:00:56.799 --> 00:00:59.100 and then boom, there's a cornfield. But right 00:00:59.100 --> 00:01:01.960 in the middle of that cornfield is a brand new 00:01:01.960 --> 00:01:05.079 subdivision. And I don't mean like one farmhouse. 00:01:05.180 --> 00:01:09.579 I'm talking 50 enormous 4 ,000 square foot houses 00:01:09.579 --> 00:01:12.700 on these huge lots. Right. And then what's next 00:01:12.700 --> 00:01:15.040 to that? A patch of forest? A forest, then maybe 00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:18.019 a solitary glass office building sitting alone 00:01:18.019 --> 00:01:20.560 in a meadow. Like it was dropped there by a spaceship. 00:01:20.719 --> 00:01:23.659 Totally. Then a goat farm, then another subdivision. 00:01:23.799 --> 00:01:25.599 And you're sitting there thinking, okay, wait 00:01:25.599 --> 00:01:28.540 a minute. Am I in the country? But you can't 00:01:28.540 --> 00:01:30.579 be, because you know there's a Starbucks five 00:01:30.579 --> 00:01:32.920 minutes down the road. Right. So you think, am 00:01:32.920 --> 00:01:35.560 I in the city? Well, definitely not. Am I in 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:38.420 the suburbs? Well, I can't see my neighbor's 00:01:38.420 --> 00:01:40.140 house through the trees, so probably not the 00:01:40.140 --> 00:01:42.719 suburbs as we know them. This is that uncanny 00:01:42.719 --> 00:01:45.299 valley of human settlement. We are entering the 00:01:45.299 --> 00:01:47.840 excerpt. That's it. And that right there is the 00:01:47.840 --> 00:01:51.260 mission for this deep dive. We are going to decode 00:01:51.260 --> 00:01:54.060 this very specific slice of geography that sits 00:01:54.060 --> 00:01:56.480 right at the bleeding edge of the metropolitan 00:01:56.480 --> 00:01:59.400 area. It's the in -between. It is. It's not city, 00:01:59.500 --> 00:02:02.579 it's not suburb, and it's not quite rural. It's 00:02:02.579 --> 00:02:05.799 something else. And I think interface is maybe 00:02:05.799 --> 00:02:07.760 the most important word we can use today. It's 00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:09.659 the analytical layer. We're not just looking 00:02:09.659 --> 00:02:12.340 at a place on a map. We are analyzing the friction 00:02:12.340 --> 00:02:16.860 point. This is where the tectonic plates of the 00:02:16.860 --> 00:02:19.819 urban economy and the rural landscape just grind 00:02:19.819 --> 00:02:21.639 against each other. That's a great way to put 00:02:21.639 --> 00:02:24.740 it. We're looking at economic tethers, huge population 00:02:24.740 --> 00:02:28.340 shifts, and the weird sociological experiments 00:02:28.340 --> 00:02:30.580 that happen when you start mixing commuters with 00:02:30.580 --> 00:02:33.800 bears. Oh, we are definitely getting to the bears. 00:02:33.919 --> 00:02:36.759 We have a massive stack of sources to work through. 00:02:36.819 --> 00:02:38.500 We're going to hit the sociological definitions, 00:02:38.620 --> 00:02:41.719 of course. We've got the landmark Brickings Institution 00:02:41.719 --> 00:02:45.219 report. which is basically the Bible for this 00:02:45.219 --> 00:02:47.620 topic. It really is. But we're also going global 00:02:47.620 --> 00:02:50.500 with this. We have ecological studies from Xi 00:02:50.500 --> 00:02:53.139 'an in China that are just fascinating. We've 00:02:53.139 --> 00:02:57.189 got reports on these. posh but kind of emptying 00:02:57.189 --> 00:03:00.330 neighborhoods outside Moscow dogs and we're absolutely 00:03:00.330 --> 00:03:02.810 going to talk about how this specific type of 00:03:02.810 --> 00:03:06.750 zoning led to a literal battle between dogs and 00:03:06.750 --> 00:03:09.710 bears in New Jersey which is a real thing by 00:03:09.710 --> 00:03:11.750 the way it sounds made up but it's not I know 00:03:11.750 --> 00:03:13.889 it's amazing and frankly a little terrifying 00:03:13.889 --> 00:03:18.310 but okay before we get to the animal combat let's 00:03:18.310 --> 00:03:21.870 try to pin this thing down What actually is an 00:03:21.870 --> 00:03:24.210 exurb? Because, you know, it feels like one of 00:03:24.210 --> 00:03:26.270 those buzzwords. It does. It sounds like something 00:03:26.270 --> 00:03:28.550 a real estate agent invented to sell a house 00:03:28.550 --> 00:03:31.229 that's an hour away from everything. Right. It's 00:03:31.229 --> 00:03:32.969 not in the middle of nowhere. It's an exclusive 00:03:32.969 --> 00:03:37.169 exurb and retreat. Exactly. But it's a real sociologically 00:03:37.169 --> 00:03:40.490 distinct concept. And, you know, to get a handle 00:03:40.490 --> 00:03:42.650 on it, we can start with the word itself. It's 00:03:42.650 --> 00:03:44.849 a portmanteau. OK. It combines extra meaning 00:03:44.849 --> 00:03:47.860 outside. And urban. Outside the city. Simple 00:03:47.860 --> 00:03:49.800 enough. Simple enough. But who came up with it? 00:03:49.819 --> 00:03:51.919 It feels so modern. Like something that would 00:03:51.919 --> 00:03:53.919 have popped up during the dot -com boom or something. 00:03:54.139 --> 00:03:56.400 You would think so, wouldn't you? But it actually 00:03:56.400 --> 00:04:00.159 goes all the way back to 1955. Wow. Really? Yeah. 00:04:00.479 --> 00:04:03.759 A writer named Auguste Comte Spiktorski wrote 00:04:03.759 --> 00:04:07.000 a book. called the Exurbanites. 1955. That's 00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:10.000 like peak Mad Men era. That's the gray flannel 00:04:10.000 --> 00:04:13.539 suit era. It absolutely is. And Spektorsky was 00:04:13.539 --> 00:04:15.900 describing something very, very specific to that 00:04:15.900 --> 00:04:19.379 time. He wasn't talking about the kind of middle 00:04:19.379 --> 00:04:21.939 class sprawl we see today. Not at all. So what 00:04:21.939 --> 00:04:23.860 was he looking at? He was looking at what he 00:04:23.860 --> 00:04:27.029 called a ring of prosperous communities. that 00:04:27.029 --> 00:04:30.089 were way out beyond the suburbs. Think about 00:04:30.089 --> 00:04:33.490 the top -tier New York executives who didn't 00:04:33.490 --> 00:04:35.350 want to live in one of those cookie -cutter, 00:04:35.350 --> 00:04:37.610 livy towns. They wanted something more. They 00:04:37.610 --> 00:04:39.750 wanted the estate. They wanted the gentleman's 00:04:39.750 --> 00:04:42.250 farm out in Connecticut or maybe a converted 00:04:42.250 --> 00:04:45.110 barn in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. It was about 00:04:45.110 --> 00:04:47.829 creating a buffer. So, originally, the excerpt 00:04:47.829 --> 00:04:50.189 was a status symbol. It was the VIP section of 00:04:50.189 --> 00:04:52.389 living. Precisely. It was for the urban elite 00:04:52.389 --> 00:04:55.189 who had the time and, more importantly, the money. 00:04:55.800 --> 00:04:57.660 To handle that long commute from the country, 00:04:57.819 --> 00:05:00.740 it was all about exclusion. So you moved there 00:05:00.740 --> 00:05:02.899 to get away from the masses in the city. And 00:05:02.899 --> 00:05:05.019 the new masses in the suburbs. It was a double 00:05:05.019 --> 00:05:07.500 retreat. But looking at the sources we have now, 00:05:07.699 --> 00:05:12.339 that definition just feels, it feels incomplete. 00:05:12.560 --> 00:05:14.920 I mean, sure, you still have wealthy people living 00:05:14.920 --> 00:05:17.300 in the woods, but the excerpts we're talking 00:05:17.300 --> 00:05:19.279 about in the 21st century seem like a totally 00:05:19.279 --> 00:05:21.339 different phenomenon. They've absolutely evolved. 00:05:22.000 --> 00:05:25.420 The term has expanded so much. Today, excerpts 00:05:25.420 --> 00:05:27.740 are not just for the wealthy. In fact, many of 00:05:27.740 --> 00:05:29.920 them include what our sources call extra -urban 00:05:29.920 --> 00:05:33.800 districts that might actually be... It's economically 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:36.339 underdeveloped. Underdeveloped in what way? Like 00:05:36.339 --> 00:05:38.379 no jobs? It's more about infrastructure. Yeah. 00:05:38.439 --> 00:05:40.160 Public transit, for example, if you live in a 00:05:40.160 --> 00:05:43.420 classic 1950s suburb, you probably have a train 00:05:43.420 --> 00:05:45.740 station, maybe a bus line that can get you into 00:05:45.740 --> 00:05:47.519 the city. Right. There's a connection. There's 00:05:47.519 --> 00:05:49.699 a connection. In the modern exurb, you are often 00:05:49.699 --> 00:05:51.939 in a total transit desert. You might have found 00:05:51.939 --> 00:05:54.079 more affordable housing, which is a huge driver 00:05:54.079 --> 00:05:56.920 for why people move there. But you are paying 00:05:56.920 --> 00:05:58.720 for that affordability with your time. You are 00:05:58.720 --> 00:06:02.310 driving. The sources also keep using this phrase 00:06:02.310 --> 00:06:05.370 bedroom town. And I have to say that phrase always 00:06:05.370 --> 00:06:07.730 depresses me a little. It is a bit bleak, isn't 00:06:07.730 --> 00:06:09.829 it? It really is. It implies you're just, you 00:06:09.829 --> 00:06:12.269 know, storing your body there at night. Well, 00:06:12.310 --> 00:06:14.209 that's the economic reality for a lot of these 00:06:14.209 --> 00:06:17.550 places. They're defined as agglomerations of 00:06:17.550 --> 00:06:20.269 housing and jobs outside the municipal boundaries. 00:06:21.110 --> 00:06:24.009 But for a very long time, that jobs part was 00:06:24.009 --> 00:06:26.170 basically missing. It was just the housing part. 00:06:26.329 --> 00:06:28.870 It was just housing. You sleep there, you wake 00:06:28.870 --> 00:06:31.370 up, you get in your car and you leave. The community 00:06:31.370 --> 00:06:33.850 itself is basically empty from 8 a .m. to 6 p 00:06:33.850 --> 00:06:37.089 .m. So let's try to visualize the density because 00:06:37.089 --> 00:06:39.110 I think that's the hardest part for people to 00:06:39.110 --> 00:06:41.050 really grasp if they haven't seen it up close. 00:06:41.389 --> 00:06:43.709 The sources bring up Loudoun County in Virginia 00:06:43.709 --> 00:06:47.529 as like the poster child for this. Loudoun is 00:06:47.529 --> 00:06:49.829 the perfect example because you can literally 00:06:49.829 --> 00:06:52.189 watch the timeline of American development by 00:06:52.189 --> 00:06:54.290 just driving west from Washington, D .C. How 00:06:54.290 --> 00:06:56.970 so? You start in Arlington, which is dense. It's 00:06:56.970 --> 00:06:59.290 urban. Then you drive through Fairfax County, 00:06:59.410 --> 00:07:01.689 which is the quintessential sprawling suburb. 00:07:02.029 --> 00:07:04.589 And then you cross the county line into Loudoun. 00:07:05.009 --> 00:07:07.230 And everything changes. And what does that look 00:07:07.230 --> 00:07:08.790 like on the ground? Is it like hitting a wall? 00:07:09.069 --> 00:07:11.629 It's not a wall. It's a gradient. It's a slow 00:07:11.629 --> 00:07:14.629 fade. You just start to notice the subdivisions 00:07:14.629 --> 00:07:17.339 are getting further apart. The roads might go 00:07:17.339 --> 00:07:19.759 from four lanes down to two, but they're still 00:07:19.759 --> 00:07:22.600 jammed with rush hour traffic. And you see the 00:07:22.600 --> 00:07:24.920 rural aesthetics starting to pop up, the white 00:07:24.920 --> 00:07:28.360 fences, the horse farms. But the economy, the 00:07:28.360 --> 00:07:31.500 reason people are there, is still entirely tethered 00:07:31.500 --> 00:07:34.180 to the city they just drove out of. So, OK, we've 00:07:34.180 --> 00:07:36.639 got a vibe check. It feels open, but it acts 00:07:36.639 --> 00:07:39.620 urban. But how do we actually measure this? Because 00:07:39.620 --> 00:07:41.779 if I'm a sociologist or a planner, I can't just 00:07:41.779 --> 00:07:44.040 go, well, it has a vibe. No, you need hard data. 00:07:44.160 --> 00:07:46.860 You need a formula. And for that, we have to 00:07:46.860 --> 00:07:49.959 turn to the Brookings Institution. In 2006, they 00:07:49.959 --> 00:07:53.220 published this report, Finding Exurbia. The Bible. 00:07:53.399 --> 00:07:55.699 The Bible. And this is a really pivotal moment 00:07:55.699 --> 00:07:57.860 because they finally gave us a checklist. They 00:07:57.860 --> 00:07:59.740 stopped just describing the vibe and started 00:07:59.740 --> 00:08:01.740 measuring census tracts. And they came up with 00:08:01.740 --> 00:08:04.180 three rules. If a place meets these three criteria, 00:08:04.500 --> 00:08:06.560 it's officially an exurb. Let's break them down. 00:08:07.000 --> 00:08:10.060 Rule number one, economic connection. This is 00:08:10.060 --> 00:08:12.480 the big one. It's the most critical rule. You 00:08:12.480 --> 00:08:14.339 can't just be a small town in the middle of nowhere. 00:08:14.519 --> 00:08:17.259 Right. If you live in a village, say, three hours 00:08:17.259 --> 00:08:19.899 from a major city, and everyone who lives there 00:08:19.899 --> 00:08:22.180 works at the local mill or the school or the 00:08:22.180 --> 00:08:25.180 hospital, you are rural. You're a self -contained 00:08:25.180 --> 00:08:27.259 community. You don't need the city to survive. 00:08:27.600 --> 00:08:30.160 Exactly. To be an exurb, you absolutely must 00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:33.289 have that commuter tether. The source material 00:08:33.289 --> 00:08:35.909 really emphasizes this. While the housing is 00:08:35.909 --> 00:08:38.730 out in the sticks, the money, the paychecks are 00:08:38.730 --> 00:08:41.190 coming from the metropolis. So if a blizzard 00:08:41.190 --> 00:08:43.929 closes the highway for three days, the exurbs 00:08:43.929 --> 00:08:47.070 economy grinds to a halt. In an economic sense, 00:08:47.250 --> 00:08:50.110 yes. The entire value proposition of those homes 00:08:50.110 --> 00:08:52.570 is dictated by their access, however difficult, 00:08:52.789 --> 00:08:54.909 to the urban job market. Okay, that makes sense. 00:08:55.049 --> 00:08:58.289 Rule number two, low housing density. And the 00:08:58.289 --> 00:09:00.070 source gets super specific here. It says you 00:09:00.070 --> 00:09:02.509 have to be in the bottom third of all census 00:09:02.509 --> 00:09:04.850 tracts in the metro area when it comes to density. 00:09:04.990 --> 00:09:07.090 Right. And what that translated to, using the 00:09:07.090 --> 00:09:10.409 year 2000 data they had, was a minimum of about 00:09:10.409 --> 00:09:14.029 2 .6 acres per resident. Whoa, wait. 2 .6 acres 00:09:14.029 --> 00:09:16.370 per resident? Per resident, yeah. Let's pause 00:09:16.370 --> 00:09:19.129 on that for a second. That is... That's massive. 00:09:19.330 --> 00:09:21.429 It is an enormous amount of space. So if you're 00:09:21.429 --> 00:09:24.450 a family of four, you are statistically occupying 00:09:24.450 --> 00:09:27.230 over 10 acres of land. On average, across that 00:09:27.230 --> 00:09:30.250 census tract, yes. Now, that number would include 00:09:30.250 --> 00:09:32.690 things like common areas, undeveloped woods, 00:09:32.809 --> 00:09:35.590 roads, that sort of thing. But the feeling of 00:09:35.590 --> 00:09:38.929 the place is absolutely defined by that space. 00:09:39.230 --> 00:09:41.529 But that's my question. 2 .6 acres is kind of 00:09:41.529 --> 00:09:44.230 an awkward size, isn't it? It's way too big to 00:09:44.230 --> 00:09:46.710 mow with a regular push mower. Oh, yeah. But 00:09:46.710 --> 00:09:49.629 it's too small to be a real functioning farm. 00:09:49.889 --> 00:09:51.889 That's the uncanny valley we were talking about 00:09:51.889 --> 00:09:53.730 at the start. It's what landscape architects 00:09:53.730 --> 00:09:56.490 sometimes call too big to brood, too small to 00:09:56.490 --> 00:09:58.950 farm. I have never heard that before. You can't 00:09:58.950 --> 00:10:01.250 run a commercial agricultural operation on it, 00:10:01.289 --> 00:10:03.370 but it creates a huge amount of maintenance. 00:10:03.409 --> 00:10:06.149 It promotes a very specific lifestyle. The person 00:10:06.149 --> 00:10:08.350 on the writing mower for four hours every Saturday. 00:10:08.549 --> 00:10:11.549 That's the one. It's land for the sake of having 00:10:11.549 --> 00:10:14.850 land, not for production. Which brings us to 00:10:14.850 --> 00:10:17.259 the third rule. Rule number three, population 00:10:17.259 --> 00:10:21.039 growth. This is key. The exurb has to be growing 00:10:21.039 --> 00:10:23.440 and not just growing, but growing faster than 00:10:23.440 --> 00:10:25.919 the average for the central metropolitan area. 00:10:26.039 --> 00:10:28.720 So it's not a sleepy, static country town. Exactly. 00:10:29.120 --> 00:10:31.379 That's what distinguishes it from a dying rural 00:10:31.379 --> 00:10:34.320 town. A rural town might have low density and 00:10:34.320 --> 00:10:37.299 even a few commuters. But if its population is 00:10:37.299 --> 00:10:40.100 shrinking or just flat, it's not an exurb. The 00:10:40.100 --> 00:10:42.799 exurb is the frontier. It's actively expanding. 00:10:43.100 --> 00:10:46.059 It is eating the landscape. It's the active front 00:10:46.059 --> 00:10:48.059 of the city's expansion. Correct. It's where 00:10:48.059 --> 00:10:51.259 the bulldozers are working. So why? We have the 00:10:51.259 --> 00:10:53.080 definition. We have the checklist. But I really 00:10:53.080 --> 00:10:55.100 want to understand the motivation. The commute 00:10:55.100 --> 00:10:57.480 sounds like a nightmare. The yard maintenance 00:10:57.480 --> 00:11:02.539 sounds exhausting. Why do people choose to move 00:11:02.539 --> 00:11:05.210 to the absolute edge? Well, the Canadian research 00:11:05.210 --> 00:11:07.649 we have from 2022 touches on this. They define 00:11:07.649 --> 00:11:09.809 it a bit differently. They look for a gross population 00:11:09.809 --> 00:11:12.750 density of less than 150 people per square kilometer. 00:11:13.129 --> 00:11:15.690 But the key element is the same. The commute. 00:11:15.809 --> 00:11:18.149 The commute. Their definition requires that more 00:11:18.149 --> 00:11:20.330 than 50 percent of the workers living there are 00:11:20.330 --> 00:11:22.429 commuting into the core metro area. More than 00:11:22.429 --> 00:11:25.169 half. That's a staggering number. It's huge. 00:11:25.889 --> 00:11:29.230 And it implies very conscious tradeoff. People 00:11:29.230 --> 00:11:31.610 are trading their time for space. They're trading 00:11:31.610 --> 00:11:34.509 the convenience and culture of the city for the 00:11:34.509 --> 00:11:37.389 perceived safety, the quiet and the status of 00:11:37.389 --> 00:11:40.110 having that country life, even if that country 00:11:40.110 --> 00:11:42.610 life is a little bit synthetic. Suburban style 00:11:42.610 --> 00:11:45.269 development on rural development land. That's 00:11:45.269 --> 00:11:47.669 a direct quote from one of the sources. It's 00:11:47.669 --> 00:11:50.529 a simulation of the rural experience. It's wanting 00:11:50.529 --> 00:11:53.149 to have your cake and eat it, too. But the bakery 00:11:53.149 --> 00:11:55.090 where they make the cake is a two hour drive 00:11:55.090 --> 00:11:57.879 away. Now, I think a lot of Americans, and I 00:11:57.879 --> 00:11:59.820 am definitely guilty of this, we tend to think 00:11:59.820 --> 00:12:02.299 that we invented sprawl. We look at places like 00:12:02.299 --> 00:12:04.700 Los Angeles or Phoenix and just assume this is 00:12:04.700 --> 00:12:07.039 a uniquely American problem, you know, caused 00:12:07.039 --> 00:12:10.659 by cheap gas and a love for pickup trucks. But 00:12:10.659 --> 00:12:12.659 the sources we have suggest that's just not true. 00:12:12.899 --> 00:12:15.700 Not at all. It is absolutely a global phenomena. 00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:18.659 Now, the specific flavor of it changes from place 00:12:18.659 --> 00:12:21.600 to place. But the underlying dynamic, the city 00:12:21.600 --> 00:12:23.399 expanding into its hinterland, that's happening 00:12:23.399 --> 00:12:25.340 everywhere. So let's look at China, because the 00:12:25.340 --> 00:12:28.440 scale of everything in China just, it consistently 00:12:28.440 --> 00:12:31.360 breaks my brain. It breaks everyone's brain. 00:12:31.480 --> 00:12:34.120 It's hard to comprehend. We have this study on 00:12:34.120 --> 00:12:36.960 the city of Xiamen, and they break down the city 00:12:36.960 --> 00:12:39.519 into these density tiers. In the urban core, 00:12:39.700 --> 00:12:43.080 the density is over 51 persons per hectare. Which 00:12:43.080 --> 00:12:44.980 is very dense. That's high -rise apartment living. 00:12:45.059 --> 00:12:46.639 That's what we'd picture as a major city. Right. 00:12:46.860 --> 00:12:49.519 Then you move out to the suburban zone, and it 00:12:49.519 --> 00:12:52.500 drops to about 8 persons per hectare. But then 00:12:52.500 --> 00:12:55.100 you get to the exurban areas, and the definition 00:12:55.100 --> 00:12:57.600 is anything less than 8 persons per hectare. 00:12:57.620 --> 00:12:59.809 Okay. Now notice the difference there. In the 00:12:59.809 --> 00:13:02.110 U .S., the Brookings definition was based on 00:13:02.110 --> 00:13:06.669 2 .6 acres per person. In China, their definition 00:13:06.669 --> 00:13:09.789 of low -density exurbia is anything under 8 people 00:13:09.789 --> 00:13:13.779 per hectare. A hectare is about 2 .5 acres. So 00:13:13.779 --> 00:13:16.740 their empty exurbs are still significantly denser 00:13:16.740 --> 00:13:18.940 than most American suburbs. Wait, say that again? 00:13:19.080 --> 00:13:21.500 Their exurb is denser than our suburb? In many 00:13:21.500 --> 00:13:24.179 cases, yes. If you dropped a typical American 00:13:24.179 --> 00:13:26.940 exurb and subdivision into the outskirts of Xiamen, 00:13:26.980 --> 00:13:29.179 they would probably classify it as, you know, 00:13:29.200 --> 00:13:31.940 a park or uninhabited wilderness. That's wild. 00:13:32.320 --> 00:13:35.559 It is. But for the Chinese urban planners, that 00:13:35.559 --> 00:13:38.120 psychological drop -off from 51 people per hectare 00:13:38.120 --> 00:13:41.500 down to eight is the same dynamic. It marks that 00:13:41.500 --> 00:13:44.480 transition from the known city to the developing 00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:47.580 edge. There's a really interesting detail in 00:13:47.580 --> 00:13:49.419 that Chinese source material, something about 00:13:49.419 --> 00:13:53.039 rural revitalization. It specifically mentions 00:13:53.039 --> 00:13:56.279 the problem of vacant houses in rural exurbs. 00:13:56.340 --> 00:13:59.980 Ah, yes, the hollow village phenomenon. Explain 00:13:59.980 --> 00:14:02.750 that, because... If the exurb is supposed to 00:14:02.750 --> 00:14:05.769 be this hotspot of growth, why on earth are there 00:14:05.769 --> 00:14:08.289 vacant houses? It's because development in China 00:14:08.289 --> 00:14:10.710 can happen by government decree or through these 00:14:10.710 --> 00:14:13.509 massive waves of speculation. It moves incredibly 00:14:13.509 --> 00:14:15.730 fast. You might build the roads, build the high 00:14:15.730 --> 00:14:17.730 rises, build the houses. But the people don't 00:14:17.730 --> 00:14:20.110 come. Or they don't stay. If the jobs aren't 00:14:20.110 --> 00:14:22.509 quite there yet, or if that economic tether to 00:14:22.509 --> 00:14:24.309 the main city isn't strong enough or convenient 00:14:24.309 --> 00:14:27.610 enough, people will leave. Or, more commonly, 00:14:27.789 --> 00:14:29.929 the younger generation will move into the true 00:14:29.929 --> 00:14:32.769 city for better opportunities, leaving that exurban 00:14:32.769 --> 00:14:35.169 village to slowly hollow out. So the government 00:14:35.169 --> 00:14:37.629 has to step in to fix it. Well, the source mentions 00:14:37.629 --> 00:14:40.889 this rural revitalization strategy. It's a form 00:14:40.889 --> 00:14:43.370 of state intervention to try and pump life back 00:14:43.370 --> 00:14:45.570 into these fringe areas to prevent them from 00:14:45.570 --> 00:14:48.490 becoming modern ghost towns. Right. It's a reminder 00:14:48.490 --> 00:14:50.970 that exurbs aren't these inevitable success stories. 00:14:51.169 --> 00:14:53.470 They're fragile. They can fail. Speaking of failing 00:14:53.470 --> 00:14:56.929 exurbs. or at least excerpts with a really strange 00:14:56.929 --> 00:15:00.389 trajectory. We have to talk about Russia. Rublyovka. 00:15:00.429 --> 00:15:02.769 Just the name of it, it sounds expensive. Rublyovka. 00:15:02.909 --> 00:15:05.750 It is the Beverly Hills of Moscow, but probably 00:15:05.750 --> 00:15:07.970 with higher walls and a lot more security guards 00:15:07.970 --> 00:15:11.129 with guns. The source calls it Moscow's poshest 00:15:11.129 --> 00:15:14.090 neighborhood. And this lines up perfectly with 00:15:14.090 --> 00:15:17.590 that original 1955 Spiktorsky definition we started 00:15:17.590 --> 00:15:19.830 with. It's the wealthy fleeing the city. It's 00:15:19.830 --> 00:15:23.000 the classic oligarch sanctuary. Back in the 90s 00:15:23.000 --> 00:15:24.879 and the early 2000s, if you made a fortune in 00:15:24.879 --> 00:15:27.740 that post -Soviet boom, you moved to Rublyovka, 00:15:27.799 --> 00:15:30.259 you built a palace, and I mean sometimes literally 00:15:30.259 --> 00:15:32.980 a palace behind a 20 -foot fence, it was the 00:15:32.980 --> 00:15:35.100 ultimate status symbol. But the source we're 00:15:35.100 --> 00:15:38.259 looking at has a twist. It describes it as shockingly 00:15:38.259 --> 00:15:40.840 empty as money pours out of Russia. And this 00:15:40.840 --> 00:15:43.139 is what's so fascinating. The excerpt in this 00:15:43.139 --> 00:15:46.620 case is acting as a kind of barometer for geopolitical 00:15:46.620 --> 00:15:48.919 stability. What do you mean by that? When the 00:15:48.919 --> 00:15:51.720 country's elite feel secure and stable, They 00:15:51.720 --> 00:15:54.139 invest in the exurb. They build their roots, 00:15:54.200 --> 00:15:57.179 their legacy estates. But when they feel unsafe, 00:15:57.440 --> 00:15:59.860 you know, because of sanctions, war, political 00:15:59.860 --> 00:16:02.759 instability, they flee. But they don't just move 00:16:02.759 --> 00:16:05.519 back to an apartment in Moscow. No, they flee 00:16:05.519 --> 00:16:07.539 the country entirely. They move their money and 00:16:07.539 --> 00:16:09.940 themselves to Dubai or to London or wherever 00:16:09.940 --> 00:16:12.879 they can. So Rublyovka becomes this museum of 00:16:12.879 --> 00:16:15.139 fleeing capital. That's a perfect way to put 00:16:15.139 --> 00:16:17.960 it. You have these massive opulent estates that 00:16:17.960 --> 00:16:20.039 are just sitting dark. It's the prosperous ring 00:16:20.039 --> 00:16:22.940 turning into a ghost ring. It completely challenges 00:16:22.940 --> 00:16:26.179 that idea from the Brookings report that an exer 00:16:26.179 --> 00:16:28.799 must be a place of growth. It can also be a place 00:16:28.799 --> 00:16:31.720 of rapid flight. OK, let's pivot from there to 00:16:31.720 --> 00:16:34.259 India, to Mumbai, because this seems to be a 00:16:34.259 --> 00:16:36.659 totally different driver. In Russia, it's oligarchs 00:16:36.659 --> 00:16:39.740 fleeing. In China, it's massive state planning. 00:16:39.879 --> 00:16:42.320 In India, it sounds like it's all about the car. 00:16:42.480 --> 00:16:45.360 The rapidly motorizing middle class. That is 00:16:45.360 --> 00:16:47.419 the key phrase from the study we have on Mumbai. 00:16:47.860 --> 00:16:50.679 Historically, major Indian cities have been incredibly 00:16:50.679 --> 00:16:53.960 dense, right? Yeah. Very transit -oriented or 00:16:53.960 --> 00:16:56.919 walkable, just out of sheer necessity. Absolutely. 00:16:57.000 --> 00:16:59.080 For centuries, that was the only way they could 00:16:59.080 --> 00:17:02.190 function. But as the middle class grows and gains 00:17:02.190 --> 00:17:05.109 disposable income, what is the first major purchase 00:17:05.109 --> 00:17:07.150 they want to make? A car? A private vehicle. 00:17:07.309 --> 00:17:11.529 It represents status, comfort, freedom, air conditioning, 00:17:11.630 --> 00:17:13.650 and the heat. And as soon as you have a car, 00:17:13.730 --> 00:17:16.930 the entire geometry of your life changes. You 00:17:16.930 --> 00:17:18.990 are no longer tethered to the train station or 00:17:18.990 --> 00:17:21.670 the bus stop. You can drive until you qualify 00:17:21.670 --> 00:17:23.509 for a mortgage. You drive until you qualify. 00:17:23.710 --> 00:17:25.890 That's exactly right. The excerpt in a place 00:17:25.890 --> 00:17:28.529 like Mumbai is being birthed by the traffic jam. 00:17:28.839 --> 00:17:30.660 People are willing to move further and further 00:17:30.660 --> 00:17:32.980 out because they finally can. They're accepting 00:17:32.980 --> 00:17:35.460 that brutal commute to get the housing and the 00:17:35.460 --> 00:17:37.700 space they desire. So it's almost like they're 00:17:37.700 --> 00:17:40.500 mimicking the American suburban trajectory from 00:17:40.500 --> 00:17:43.259 the 1950s. They are, but it's happening at a 00:17:43.259 --> 00:17:46.099 much higher density and with, you know, far more 00:17:46.099 --> 00:17:49.319 chaotic and underdeveloped infrastructure. It's 00:17:49.319 --> 00:17:51.500 the same pattern just playing out in a very different 00:17:51.500 --> 00:17:54.940 context. It's just amazing to see that same core 00:17:54.940 --> 00:17:57.559 dynamic, that tradeoff between time and space, 00:17:57.759 --> 00:18:00.220 the reliance on the commute playing out in such 00:18:00.220 --> 00:18:02.660 radically different cultures. It seems to be 00:18:02.660 --> 00:18:06.380 a human universal. We want space, but we need 00:18:06.380 --> 00:18:08.750 the city's money. But here's the problem. And 00:18:08.750 --> 00:18:10.430 this is where we get into the friction section 00:18:10.430 --> 00:18:13.470 of our deep dive. That space that everyone wants. 00:18:14.289 --> 00:18:17.410 It isn't empty. No, it's not. When we look at 00:18:17.410 --> 00:18:20.089 a map and we see a big green patch, our brain 00:18:20.089 --> 00:18:22.910 just registers empty. But it's not empty. It's 00:18:22.910 --> 00:18:25.779 an ecosystem. And nature. Nature has opinions 00:18:25.779 --> 00:18:28.259 about us moving in. Checkles. It has very strong 00:18:28.259 --> 00:18:30.319 opinions. The sources talk about the ecological 00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:32.619 interface. Let's start with the invisible stuff 00:18:32.619 --> 00:18:34.420 before we get to the bears. Let's talk about 00:18:34.420 --> 00:18:36.700 carbon. Right. So this study from Zyman specifically 00:18:36.700 --> 00:18:40.599 focuses on vegetation carbon storage. And I feel 00:18:40.599 --> 00:18:42.079 like a lot of people have this misconception. 00:18:42.259 --> 00:18:44.160 They think, well, I'm moving to the exurbs. I'm 00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:46.000 going to have a big lawn. I'll have some trees. 00:18:46.099 --> 00:18:48.779 I'm helping the environment. That is the common 00:18:48.779 --> 00:18:52.339 and very mistaken belief. But you can't just 00:18:52.339 --> 00:18:55.339 look at what's there now. You have to compare 00:18:55.339 --> 00:18:58.220 it to the baseline, to what was there before 00:18:58.220 --> 00:19:00.859 the subdivision was built. If that land was a 00:19:00.859 --> 00:19:04.079 mature forest or a wetland, it was acting as 00:19:04.079 --> 00:19:06.890 a massive carbon sponge. It was aggressively 00:19:06.890 --> 00:19:10.150 pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere and locking 00:19:10.150 --> 00:19:12.450 it away in the soil and the biomass. But when 00:19:12.450 --> 00:19:14.769 you build an XSERV on it... When you subdivide 00:19:14.769 --> 00:19:16.549 it, even if you keep some of the big trees for 00:19:16.549 --> 00:19:19.569 aesthetics, you are fundamentally disrupting 00:19:19.569 --> 00:19:22.349 that entire system. You're sealing huge patches 00:19:22.349 --> 00:19:24.529 of soil with asphalt driveways and foundations. 00:19:24.970 --> 00:19:27.690 You're replacing the complex carbon -rich undergrowth 00:19:27.690 --> 00:19:30.940 with a simple monoculture lawn. And a lawn just 00:19:30.940 --> 00:19:33.420 doesn't sequester carbon in the same way a forest 00:19:33.420 --> 00:19:35.880 does? Not even close. And that's before you even 00:19:35.880 --> 00:19:38.839 add the massive carbon cost of every single resident 00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:41.359 commuting an hour each way to work in a gasoline 00:19:41.359 --> 00:19:44.140 -powered car. So environmentally, the exurb is 00:19:44.140 --> 00:19:46.519 kind of the worst of both worlds. In many ways, 00:19:46.640 --> 00:19:49.779 yes. You lose the density and efficiency of the 00:19:49.779 --> 00:19:52.400 city, and you degrade the ecological function 00:19:52.400 --> 00:19:55.619 of the country. But carbon is abstract. You know, 00:19:55.640 --> 00:19:57.940 you can't see it. You know what you can see. 00:19:58.019 --> 00:19:59.579 I have a feeling I know where this is going. 00:19:59.900 --> 00:20:02.680 Bear -ubs. The New Jersey conflict. This story 00:20:02.680 --> 00:20:05.900 from New York Magazine from 2007 is just, it's 00:20:05.900 --> 00:20:09.500 incredible. The headline is, Dog vs. Bear Release 00:20:09.500 --> 00:20:12.480 the Hounds. Sounds like something from a satirical 00:20:12.480 --> 00:20:14.819 newspaper. It totally does. Yeah. But it's real. 00:20:14.940 --> 00:20:18.519 So set the scene for us. Why New Jersey, of all 00:20:18.519 --> 00:20:20.500 places? Well, New Jersey is the most densely 00:20:20.500 --> 00:20:23.319 populated state in the entire country, but the 00:20:23.319 --> 00:20:25.240 northwestern corners of the state is actually 00:20:25.240 --> 00:20:27.960 very rugged and forested. It's part of the Appalachian 00:20:27.960 --> 00:20:30.319 Highlands. So prime bear country. Prime black 00:20:30.319 --> 00:20:33.200 bear habitat. And as the exurbs pushed further 00:20:33.200 --> 00:20:35.460 and further out from New York City, pushing into 00:20:35.460 --> 00:20:37.359 those hills places that used to be just hunting 00:20:37.359 --> 00:20:39.859 cabins and deep woods, they ran right into the 00:20:39.859 --> 00:20:41.819 bear's living room. And the people moving into 00:20:41.819 --> 00:20:44.200 these new homes, they're not exactly grizzled 00:20:44.200 --> 00:20:46.579 mountain folk. Not at all. They are commuters 00:20:46.579 --> 00:20:48.539 from the city and the suburbs. They're meeting 00:20:48.539 --> 00:20:51.079 there for the aesthetic of nature. They want 00:20:51.079 --> 00:20:53.440 to sit on their deck and watch a deer frolicking 00:20:53.440 --> 00:20:55.759 in the morning mist. They want Bambi. They want 00:20:55.759 --> 00:20:59.369 Bambi. What they get is a 400 -pound bear. that 00:20:59.369 --> 00:21:02.930 has figured out how to demolish their $300 specialized 00:21:02.930 --> 00:21:06.690 bear -proof trash can and is now sniffing around 00:21:06.690 --> 00:21:09.430 their back door, terrifying their golden retriever. 00:21:09.529 --> 00:21:12.230 And this creates a massive political conflict, 00:21:12.309 --> 00:21:15.170 I assume. Huge. On one side, you have the new 00:21:15.170 --> 00:21:17.309 residents screaming at the town council, do something 00:21:17.309 --> 00:21:19.829 about the bears, it's not safe. And on the other 00:21:19.829 --> 00:21:22.069 side, you have conservationists and, frankly, 00:21:22.170 --> 00:21:24.250 the bears themselves, saying, you moved into 00:21:24.250 --> 00:21:26.369 the woods, what on earth did you expect to find 00:21:26.369 --> 00:21:29.200 here? So what was the solution mentioned in the 00:21:29.200 --> 00:21:32.079 article, this release the hounds idea? They were 00:21:32.079 --> 00:21:34.339 bringing in a specialized breed of dog called 00:21:34.339 --> 00:21:37.259 Corellian bear dogs. Okay. These are fearless 00:21:37.259 --> 00:21:39.720 dogs that are bred specifically to harass bears, 00:21:39.960 --> 00:21:43.119 to bark at them, nip at them, and basically chase 00:21:43.119 --> 00:21:45.779 them away from human areas without actually killing 00:21:45.779 --> 00:21:47.859 them. It's a form of non -lethal aversion conditioning. 00:21:48.099 --> 00:21:50.460 So we are literally deploying tactical special 00:21:50.460 --> 00:21:53.460 ops dogs to enforce zoning laws between humans 00:21:53.460 --> 00:21:56.160 and nature. It just perfectly highlights the 00:21:56.160 --> 00:21:58.160 fundamental absurdity and the conflict of the 00:21:58.160 --> 00:22:00.839 excerpt. We want the beautiful backdrop of nature. 00:22:01.420 --> 00:22:03.900 but we want it completely sanitized for our convenience. 00:22:04.160 --> 00:22:06.059 We want the view from the cabin, but we don't 00:22:06.059 --> 00:22:08.000 want the wildlife that comes with the cabin. 00:22:08.119 --> 00:22:10.640 Exactly. We want the Disneyfication of the wild. 00:22:10.819 --> 00:22:13.339 And it's not just bears in New Jersey. It's the 00:22:13.339 --> 00:22:15.779 catastrophic wildfire risks in the exurbs of 00:22:15.779 --> 00:22:18.380 California. It's the water usage debates in the 00:22:18.380 --> 00:22:21.940 exurbs of Arizona. We are imposing a high -intensity, 00:22:22.119 --> 00:22:25.299 resource -heavy lifestyle on landscapes that 00:22:25.299 --> 00:22:27.509 simply cannot support it. There's another kind 00:22:27.509 --> 00:22:29.849 of friction here, though. It's not just man versus 00:22:29.849 --> 00:22:33.869 nature. It's also man versus himself or maybe 00:22:33.869 --> 00:22:35.650 man versus loneliness. It's social isolation 00:22:35.650 --> 00:22:37.970 component. Yeah. We talked about how these places 00:22:37.970 --> 00:22:40.230 are often called bedroom towns. But let's dig 00:22:40.230 --> 00:22:41.950 into what that actually feels like day to day. 00:22:42.089 --> 00:22:45.029 The source material notes the limited urban nature 00:22:45.029 --> 00:22:47.549 for social interaction. Think about a traditional 00:22:47.549 --> 00:22:49.869 city neighborhood. You walk to the corner store. 00:22:50.029 --> 00:22:52.250 You bump into your neighbor on the stoop. You 00:22:52.250 --> 00:22:55.019 see other parents at the playground. There are 00:22:55.019 --> 00:22:57.759 what sociologists call third places. Like the 00:22:57.759 --> 00:23:01.839 coffee shop, the bar, the library. Exactly. Neutral 00:23:01.839 --> 00:23:05.140 grounds that aren't home or work, where community 00:23:05.140 --> 00:23:07.779 just sort of happens organically. But in the 00:23:07.779 --> 00:23:11.400 excerpt, with those 2 .6 acre lots. You don't 00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:14.880 bump into anyone. Your entire life is mediated 00:23:14.880 --> 00:23:17.400 by your car. You get in your car, you're attached 00:23:17.400 --> 00:23:19.220 garage, you drive to work, you park in a parking 00:23:19.220 --> 00:23:20.980 garage, you drive home, you pull back into your 00:23:20.980 --> 00:23:23.119 garage and door closes. If you see your neighbor, 00:23:23.220 --> 00:23:25.880 it's through a windshield as they drive by. One 00:23:25.880 --> 00:23:29.160 of our sources lists the TV show South Park in 00:23:29.160 --> 00:23:31.319 its see also section, which I thought was hilarious 00:23:31.319 --> 00:23:33.880 at first. But actually, it's surprisingly relevant. 00:23:34.039 --> 00:23:36.279 South Park is this isolated mountain town. It's 00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:38.799 cut off from everything. It perfectly represents 00:23:38.799 --> 00:23:42.019 that island mentality. When you live in a place 00:23:42.019 --> 00:23:45.019 that is so geographically removed, you can develop 00:23:45.019 --> 00:23:48.579 a very insular, unique culture. But the risk 00:23:48.579 --> 00:23:50.920 in the modern exurb is that you get the isolation 00:23:50.920 --> 00:23:53.619 without the community. In South Park, for all 00:23:53.619 --> 00:23:55.660 its weirdness, everyone knows everyone. Right. 00:23:55.720 --> 00:23:58.759 In a brand new exurban subdivision, you might 00:23:58.759 --> 00:24:01.599 be totally isolated and completely anonymous. 00:24:02.119 --> 00:24:04.680 That sounds like a potential recipe for a mental 00:24:04.680 --> 00:24:07.579 health crisis. It can be. It's particularly difficult 00:24:07.579 --> 00:24:11.079 for demographics who can't drive, teenagers for 00:24:11.079 --> 00:24:14.180 one, and the elderly. If you can't get in the 00:24:14.180 --> 00:24:16.000 car, you're effectively trapped. You become a 00:24:16.000 --> 00:24:18.160 prisoner of the subdivision. So if the exurb 00:24:18.160 --> 00:24:21.000 is ecologically damaging, socially isolating, 00:24:21.200 --> 00:24:24.359 and eternally prone to bear attacks, why is it 00:24:24.359 --> 00:24:26.740 still seen as the future? Or is it the future? 00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:28.579 That is the multi -trillion dollar question, 00:24:28.680 --> 00:24:30.640 isn't it? And how do we even track it accurately? 00:24:30.839 --> 00:24:32.480 Well, the sources do mention that we're moving 00:24:32.480 --> 00:24:35.099 beyond that old census data. We now have things 00:24:35.099 --> 00:24:37.539 like the Oak Ridge National Laboratory land scan 00:24:37.539 --> 00:24:41.380 data. And GIS geographic information systems. 00:24:41.900 --> 00:24:45.539 This is a huge leap forward. We can now use high 00:24:45.539 --> 00:24:49.039 -resolution satellite imagery to literally watch 00:24:49.039 --> 00:24:52.299 the exurbs spread across the landscape in near 00:24:52.299 --> 00:24:54.740 real time. So we can see the lights at night 00:24:54.740 --> 00:24:57.180 expanding outward. We can see the lights. We 00:24:57.180 --> 00:24:59.259 can track the heat signature of the land changing 00:24:59.259 --> 00:25:03.059 as forests and fields become asphalt and rooftops. 00:25:03.079 --> 00:25:05.700 We are watching it happen from space. We're watching 00:25:05.700 --> 00:25:08.019 the agglomerations spread. That's the word the 00:25:08.019 --> 00:25:09.660 scientists use. It almost sounds like a medical 00:25:09.660 --> 00:25:11.460 condition. It does sound a bit like a disease, 00:25:11.640 --> 00:25:13.880 doesn't it? It does. But in the northeastern 00:25:13.880 --> 00:25:17.440 U .S., in that megalopolis from Boston to D .C., 00:25:17.710 --> 00:25:19.849 The sources mention something very specific. 00:25:20.230 --> 00:25:22.910 This isn't just sprawl spreading into empty space. 00:25:23.089 --> 00:25:25.220 No, that's a really important distinction. Out 00:25:25.220 --> 00:25:27.799 west, you might be building an exurb on what 00:25:27.799 --> 00:25:30.380 was previously empty desert. In the northeast 00:25:30.380 --> 00:25:32.680 or in much of Europe, you are building on top 00:25:32.680 --> 00:25:34.799 of centuries of history. You're not just building 00:25:34.799 --> 00:25:37.380 a subdivision. You're expanding into and around 00:25:37.380 --> 00:25:40.440 towns that have been there for 300 years. And 00:25:40.440 --> 00:25:43.680 the exurb effectively consumes that pre -existing 00:25:43.680 --> 00:25:46.339 rural structure. The old farming village with 00:25:46.339 --> 00:25:48.220 the white church steeple. It gets surrounded 00:25:48.220 --> 00:25:50.359 by cul -de -sacs. The old general store on the 00:25:50.359 --> 00:25:53.299 town green. It becomes a boutique selling expensive 00:25:53.299 --> 00:25:55.660 scented candles. to the new commuter residents. 00:25:55.980 --> 00:25:58.779 So the XRV acts as a gentrifier of the rural 00:25:58.779 --> 00:26:01.140 landscape itself. It's a complete cultural and 00:26:01.140 --> 00:26:03.440 economic transformation. The place might still 00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:05.740 look like a historic village, but it now functions 00:26:05.740 --> 00:26:08.160 like a wealthy distant suburb. The original character 00:26:08.160 --> 00:26:10.619 gets hollowed out. Okay, wow. We have covered 00:26:10.619 --> 00:26:12.859 a lot of ground here. We've gone from August 00:26:12.859 --> 00:26:17.480 Pektorski's 1955 elites to Chinese ghost villages 00:26:17.480 --> 00:26:20.539 and tactical bear dogs. It's been a wild ride 00:26:20.539 --> 00:26:22.940 out to the fringe. It really has. Let's try to 00:26:22.940 --> 00:26:24.519 summarize this whole thing. If you had to boil 00:26:24.519 --> 00:26:27.220 it down, what is the story of the excerpt? I 00:26:27.220 --> 00:26:28.960 think the story is still that word interface. 00:26:29.339 --> 00:26:31.920 It started as a luxury escape for the very few. 00:26:32.140 --> 00:26:34.740 It evolved into a mass market solution for the 00:26:34.740 --> 00:26:37.799 demand for cheap, spacious housing. But no matter 00:26:37.799 --> 00:26:40.380 its form, it remains the friction point. It is 00:26:40.380 --> 00:26:42.619 the place where the definition urban is in a 00:26:42.619 --> 00:26:45.000 constant active battle with the reality of rural. 00:26:45.160 --> 00:26:47.660 It's the active edge of the city. It's the active 00:26:47.660 --> 00:26:49.539 edge. And I think what's most important to remember 00:26:49.539 --> 00:26:52.460 is that it's incredibly fragile. That's the thought 00:26:52.460 --> 00:26:55.180 I want to end on. Because we saw that ghost town 00:26:55.180 --> 00:26:57.660 link in the source material. We talked about 00:26:57.660 --> 00:27:00.319 those massive Russian mansions sitting empty. 00:27:00.380 --> 00:27:03.700 We have to ask ourselves, is any of this permanent? 00:27:04.019 --> 00:27:06.180 Right. The entire exurban experiment depends 00:27:06.180 --> 00:27:08.559 completely on that tether we talked about. It 00:27:08.559 --> 00:27:11.140 relies on cheap gas, on the personal automobile, 00:27:11.380 --> 00:27:13.259 and on the high -paying job waiting in the city 00:27:13.259 --> 00:27:16.420 center. So what happens if that tether breaks? 00:27:17.079 --> 00:27:20.410 If energy costs skyrocket? And that two -hour 00:27:20.410 --> 00:27:22.910 commute becomes financially impossible. What 00:27:22.910 --> 00:27:25.450 if the economy shifts or if remote work completely 00:27:25.450 --> 00:27:27.950 changes the need to be physically near the city 00:27:27.950 --> 00:27:31.289 at all? Does that 2 .6 -acre lot suddenly become 00:27:31.289 --> 00:27:34.029 a massive liability instead of an asset? Does 00:27:34.029 --> 00:27:36.430 it revert to the wild? Does the forest start 00:27:36.430 --> 00:27:38.710 to creep back in and reclaim the lawns? In the 00:27:38.710 --> 00:27:41.910 end, does the bear win? Chuckles. In the long 00:27:41.910 --> 00:27:44.569 run, the bear usually wins. That is a haunting 00:27:44.569 --> 00:27:47.329 thought to leave you with next time you're on 00:27:47.329 --> 00:27:50.559 that drive. and you pass a brand new subdivision 00:27:50.559 --> 00:27:53.279 in the middle of a cornfield. Are you looking 00:27:53.279 --> 00:27:55.339 at the future, or are you looking at a future 00:27:55.339 --> 00:27:58.039 ruin? Only time, and I suppose the bears will 00:27:58.039 --> 00:28:00.099 tell. Thank you for taking this drive out to 00:28:00.099 --> 00:28:01.779 the edge with us. It was a pleasure. We'll see 00:28:01.779 --> 00:28:02.579 you on the next deep dive.