WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.240 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. I want to start 00:00:02.240 --> 00:00:05.599 today by putting you in a very specific headspace. 00:00:05.799 --> 00:00:07.620 Okay, I'm ready. It's a Monday morning, roughly 00:00:07.620 --> 00:00:11.339 8 .15 a .m. You're sitting in your car. You have 00:00:11.339 --> 00:00:14.099 a travel mug in the cup holder that is, you know, 00:00:14.099 --> 00:00:17.160 slowly going tepid. I know this feeling. And 00:00:17.160 --> 00:00:20.379 in front of you is a sea of red brake lights 00:00:20.379 --> 00:00:23.239 that stretches as far as the eye can see. You 00:00:23.239 --> 00:00:25.600 move forward maybe three feet, tap the brakes, 00:00:25.739 --> 00:00:28.820 and stop again. You aren't really living in your 00:00:28.820 --> 00:00:31.679 city at this moment. You are surviving the friction 00:00:31.679 --> 00:00:34.460 of trying to move through it. That is a visceral 00:00:34.460 --> 00:00:36.659 image. And unfortunately, it is the defining 00:00:36.659 --> 00:00:39.119 operational reality for millions of people. It's 00:00:39.119 --> 00:00:42.149 the commute from hell. Right. But what's fascinating 00:00:42.149 --> 00:00:44.310 is that this isn't an accident. It's the result 00:00:44.310 --> 00:00:47.030 of specific design choices made over the last 00:00:47.030 --> 00:00:49.630 70 years. We designed our habitat around the 00:00:49.630 --> 00:00:52.329 automobile, and now we are quite literally stuck 00:00:52.329 --> 00:00:54.789 in it. That is the perfect setup because today 00:00:54.789 --> 00:00:57.030 we are flipping that script. We're looking at 00:00:57.030 --> 00:00:59.829 a vision of the city that treats the car as a 00:00:59.829 --> 00:01:02.429 guest, not the owner. I like that framing. A 00:01:02.429 --> 00:01:05.409 guest. A city designed not around the car, but 00:01:05.409 --> 00:01:07.549 around the train, the tram, and the pedestrian. 00:01:08.409 --> 00:01:11.010 We are talking about transit oriented development 00:01:11.010 --> 00:01:14.909 or TOD. TOD is one of those acronyms that urban 00:01:14.909 --> 00:01:16.730 planners throw around, you know, at cocktail 00:01:16.730 --> 00:01:18.549 parties. But it's actually one of the most powerful 00:01:18.549 --> 00:01:21.310 concepts we have for fixing the modern city. 00:01:21.510 --> 00:01:24.810 So the mission for this deep dive is to figure 00:01:24.810 --> 00:01:26.930 out if this is just a utopian dream or if it 00:01:26.930 --> 00:01:30.790 actually works. We want to understand this symbiotic 00:01:30.790 --> 00:01:33.370 relationship between public transit and where 00:01:33.370 --> 00:01:36.159 we live. Because on paper. It sounds great, right? 00:01:36.239 --> 00:01:38.319 Live near the train, walk to work, buy groceries 00:01:38.319 --> 00:01:41.099 on the way home. But I want to know the mechanics. 00:01:41.400 --> 00:01:43.319 How do you actually build it? Does it make money? 00:01:43.939 --> 00:01:46.239 And, I mean, does it actually make life better? 00:01:46.420 --> 00:01:48.359 Those are exactly the right questions. Because 00:01:48.359 --> 00:01:50.040 there is a massive difference between building 00:01:50.040 --> 00:01:53.099 a train station and building a community. TOD 00:01:53.099 --> 00:01:54.900 is not just, you know, plonking an apartment 00:01:54.900 --> 00:01:57.260 complex next to a subway stop and calling it 00:01:57.260 --> 00:01:59.359 a day. It's about density. It's about the psychology 00:01:59.359 --> 00:02:01.719 of walking. And it's about solving what they 00:02:01.719 --> 00:02:05.590 call the last mile problem. We have a huge stack 00:02:05.590 --> 00:02:07.950 of sources today. We're talking urban planning 00:02:07.950 --> 00:02:11.710 documents, case studies from, I mean, all over 00:02:11.710 --> 00:02:16.310 the world, Brazil, Hong Kong, Canada, and a lot 00:02:16.310 --> 00:02:18.610 of data on sustainable transport. And I have 00:02:18.610 --> 00:02:20.490 to say, some of the stuff in here really surprised 00:02:20.490 --> 00:02:23.090 me. Oh, yeah. What stood out? Well, usually when 00:02:23.090 --> 00:02:24.889 we talk about public transit, we talk about it 00:02:24.889 --> 00:02:27.150 like it's a charity case. Right. It's a public 00:02:27.150 --> 00:02:28.830 service that's supposed to lose money. Exactly. 00:02:28.889 --> 00:02:31.030 Oh, the subway is losing money again. We need 00:02:31.030 --> 00:02:33.750 a bailout. Yeah. But there is a system in our 00:02:33.750 --> 00:02:37.310 stack today, Hong Kong, that generates billions 00:02:37.310 --> 00:02:41.150 of dollars in profit. It creates a surplus, a 00:02:41.150 --> 00:02:44.150 massive one. A massive surplus. And it does it 00:02:44.150 --> 00:02:46.270 by acting as a property developer. That just, 00:02:46.289 --> 00:02:49.050 it blew my mind. It's a completely different 00:02:49.050 --> 00:02:52.039 model for thinking about infrastructure. So we 00:02:52.039 --> 00:02:53.939 are definitely going to dig into how that financial 00:02:53.939 --> 00:02:55.639 magic trick works. Yeah. We're also going to 00:02:55.639 --> 00:02:57.759 talk about the half mile rule, what people are 00:02:57.759 --> 00:03:00.120 calling the fried egg analogy. Very tasty analogy. 00:03:00.460 --> 00:03:03.099 And why some neighborhoods are literally hotter, 00:03:03.300 --> 00:03:05.599 I mean, temperature wise than others. It's a 00:03:05.599 --> 00:03:08.039 complex topic, but I promise when it clicks, 00:03:08.180 --> 00:03:10.180 you'll never look at a city street the same way 00:03:10.180 --> 00:03:12.650 again. All right. let's dive in let's start with 00:03:12.650 --> 00:03:16.169 the absolute basics the definition when we say 00:03:16.169 --> 00:03:18.689 transit oriented development what are we actually 00:03:18.689 --> 00:03:20.669 talking about because i feel like i see real 00:03:20.669 --> 00:03:23.229 estate agents slap that label on anything with 00:03:23.229 --> 00:03:25.270 a bus stop nearby You're right. It gets used 00:03:25.270 --> 00:03:27.969 as a buzzword all the time. But in the actual 00:03:27.969 --> 00:03:30.550 discipline of urban planning, TOD has a pretty 00:03:30.550 --> 00:03:33.210 strict definition. Okay. It is a type of urban 00:03:33.210 --> 00:03:36.110 development that maximizes the amount of residential, 00:03:36.449 --> 00:03:39.509 business, and leisure space within walking distance 00:03:39.509 --> 00:03:43.430 of public transport. The key word there is maximize. 00:03:44.110 --> 00:03:47.090 So it's about cramming as much utility as possible 00:03:47.090 --> 00:03:49.629 into that walking radius. It's not just about 00:03:49.629 --> 00:03:51.949 being near the train. It's about having things 00:03:51.949 --> 00:03:54.129 to do near the train. It's about density and 00:03:54.129 --> 00:03:57.169 diversity. You want a compact, dense urban form 00:03:57.169 --> 00:03:59.590 that feeds the transit system. Think of it as 00:03:59.590 --> 00:04:01.889 a two -way street. The buildings provide the 00:04:01.889 --> 00:04:03.969 riders for the train so the train isn't running 00:04:03.969 --> 00:04:06.590 empty. And the train provides the customers and 00:04:06.590 --> 00:04:09.210 residents for the buildings. It's a self -reinforcing 00:04:09.210 --> 00:04:11.710 loop. That's the symbiotic relationship you mentioned 00:04:11.710 --> 00:04:14.810 earlier. Okay, but walking distance is subjective. 00:04:15.629 --> 00:04:17.970 My version of walking distance, you know, on 00:04:17.970 --> 00:04:20.769 a nice day might be very different from my grandmother's 00:04:20.769 --> 00:04:23.350 version on a hot day. Is there a hard number 00:04:23.350 --> 00:04:26.149 on this? There is. And it's surprisingly consistent 00:04:26.149 --> 00:04:29.269 across cultures and studies. It's called the 00:04:29.269 --> 00:04:32.430 half mile rule. The half mile rule. OK, break 00:04:32.430 --> 00:04:35.149 down the math for us. So planners look at what 00:04:35.149 --> 00:04:38.029 they call a catchment area. This is the circle 00:04:38.029 --> 00:04:39.850 around the station where people are willing to 00:04:39.850 --> 00:04:42.949 walk to and from. And typically this radius is 00:04:42.949 --> 00:04:46.209 between one quarter and one half mile. So that's 00:04:46.209 --> 00:04:49.209 about 400 to 800 meters for our listeners outside 00:04:49.209 --> 00:04:51.610 the U .S. Correct. And that's really the sweet 00:04:51.610 --> 00:04:54.269 spot. Why that specific distance? It seems very 00:04:54.269 --> 00:04:56.449 precise. Well, it comes down to human patience 00:04:56.449 --> 00:04:59.269 and physiology. A half mile corresponds to what 00:04:59.269 --> 00:05:01.410 the average person can walk in roughly 10 minutes 00:05:01.410 --> 00:05:04.350 at a standard pace, say 3 miles per hour. 10 00:05:04.350 --> 00:05:06.310 minutes. So 10 minutes is the psychological cliff? 00:05:06.470 --> 00:05:09.019 Is that the idea? Pretty much. Studies show that 00:05:09.019 --> 00:05:11.959 up to 10 minutes, most able -bodied people are 00:05:11.959 --> 00:05:14.060 happy to walk. It doesn't feel like a chore. 00:05:14.439 --> 00:05:17.740 Once you hit minute 11 or 12, your brain starts 00:05:17.740 --> 00:05:20.139 doing a calculation. This is a hike. I should 00:05:20.139 --> 00:05:22.740 just drive. Exactly. You start thinking about 00:05:22.740 --> 00:05:24.740 the time, the weather, what you're carrying. 00:05:24.920 --> 00:05:27.160 So if you build your density outside that 10 00:05:27.160 --> 00:05:28.959 -minute circle, you lose the transit benefit. 00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:31.180 People just won't make the walk consistently. 00:05:31.620 --> 00:05:34.329 That's a tight window. A half mile radius isn't 00:05:34.329 --> 00:05:36.269 huge when you think about the scale of a city. 00:05:36.410 --> 00:05:39.649 It's about 500 acres. That is your canvas. And 00:05:39.649 --> 00:05:41.870 how you fill that canvas is everything. Which 00:05:41.870 --> 00:05:44.550 brings us to your favorite analogy. The fried 00:05:44.550 --> 00:05:46.589 egg. I saw this in the notes and I have to say 00:05:46.589 --> 00:05:49.129 I love a good food analogy. So walk me through 00:05:49.129 --> 00:05:51.490 the egg. All right. Picture a fried egg, sunny 00:05:51.490 --> 00:05:54.350 side up. The yoke is the center. That is your 00:05:54.350 --> 00:05:56.970 transit node. The train station, the light rail 00:05:56.970 --> 00:06:00.029 hub, maybe a major bus rapid transit stop. Got 00:06:00.029 --> 00:06:03.610 it. The bright yellow center. That yoke is where 00:06:03.610 --> 00:06:06.769 you put your highest density. We're talking 6, 00:06:07.050 --> 00:06:11.209 10, maybe 20 stories high. You want ground floor 00:06:11.209 --> 00:06:14.290 retail, offices, and apartments stacked right 00:06:14.290 --> 00:06:17.250 on top of each other. Maximum activity. So the 00:06:17.250 --> 00:06:19.509 yoke is where the energy is. Yeah. Coffee shops, 00:06:19.730 --> 00:06:21.889 the dry cleaner, the entrance to the subway, 00:06:22.449 --> 00:06:24.850 little grocery store. Correct. It's vibrant from 00:06:24.850 --> 00:06:27.050 morning till night. Then you have the white of 00:06:27.050 --> 00:06:28.970 the egg, that's the outer ring spreading away 00:06:28.970 --> 00:06:31.389 from the center. As you move out into the white, 00:06:31.490 --> 00:06:33.730 the density tapers off. It's not a hard edge. 00:06:33.889 --> 00:06:36.420 No, it's a gradient. You step down from those 00:06:36.420 --> 00:06:39.240 high rises to mid rises, maybe four to six stories, 00:06:39.480 --> 00:06:42.160 then maybe to townhouses or row houses until 00:06:42.160 --> 00:06:44.660 you reach the edge of that half mile circle where 00:06:44.660 --> 00:06:46.779 it might blend into a more traditional single 00:06:46.779 --> 00:06:48.800 family neighborhood. So it's a gradient. It's 00:06:48.800 --> 00:06:50.660 not just a skyscraper drop next to a farmhouse. 00:06:50.800 --> 00:06:53.319 Ideally, no. It tapers so that it feels like 00:06:53.319 --> 00:06:56.360 a natural transition. And inside that egg, the 00:06:56.360 --> 00:06:58.500 design of the streets themselves is absolutely 00:06:58.500 --> 00:07:00.680 critical. For instance, you need small block 00:07:00.680 --> 00:07:03.339 sizes. Why do block sizes matter so much? A block 00:07:03.339 --> 00:07:06.279 is a block, right? Not at all. Think about walking 00:07:06.279 --> 00:07:09.519 in a city. If the block is huge, a super block, 00:07:09.759 --> 00:07:11.459 like you see in some modernist developments, 00:07:11.819 --> 00:07:14.860 you might walk for five minutes alongside a single 00:07:14.860 --> 00:07:18.019 blank wall of a convention center or a parking 00:07:18.019 --> 00:07:21.639 garage. It feels endless. It's boring and a little 00:07:21.639 --> 00:07:24.060 creepy at night. It's psychologically draining. 00:07:24.139 --> 00:07:27.639 But if you have small blocks with frequent intersections, 00:07:27.860 --> 00:07:30.779 you have visual variety. Storefronts change. 00:07:30.939 --> 00:07:32.560 You see different buildings. You have choices 00:07:32.560 --> 00:07:35.689 of which way to turn. It psychologically shortens 00:07:35.689 --> 00:07:38.410 the walk because your brain is engaged. That 00:07:38.410 --> 00:07:40.410 makes so much sense. Yeah. It's about keeping 00:07:40.410 --> 00:07:42.709 your brain interested so you don't notice the 00:07:42.709 --> 00:07:44.689 time passing. Now, I want to clarify something 00:07:44.689 --> 00:07:46.389 because I think this is where a lot of American 00:07:46.389 --> 00:07:49.509 cities especially get it wrong. Go on. I've seen 00:07:49.509 --> 00:07:51.930 brand new apartment complexes that are technically 00:07:51.930 --> 00:07:54.050 right next to a train station. You can see the 00:07:54.050 --> 00:07:56.649 station from your window. But to get there, you 00:07:56.649 --> 00:07:58.910 have to like. Walk across a massive parking lot, 00:07:59.009 --> 00:08:01.629 maybe climb a fence. Or cross a six -lane arterial 00:08:01.629 --> 00:08:04.149 road with no crosswalk. Exactly. Is that TOD? 00:08:04.529 --> 00:08:06.750 Absolutely not. That is what we call transit 00:08:06.750 --> 00:08:09.449 proximate development. Transit proximate. That 00:08:09.449 --> 00:08:11.269 sounds like a polite way of saying close but 00:08:11.269 --> 00:08:14.029 useless. It's a failure of design. It's a developer 00:08:14.029 --> 00:08:16.829 checking a box. Being physically near a station 00:08:16.829 --> 00:08:18.970 doesn't matter if the experience of getting there 00:08:18.970 --> 00:08:21.910 is hostile to a human being on foot. So a transit 00:08:21.910 --> 00:08:25.610 proximate is just location. TOD is about connection. 00:08:26.220 --> 00:08:28.860 That's the perfect way to put it. A real TOD 00:08:28.860 --> 00:08:33.480 has wide sidewalks, high quality pedestrian crossings, 00:08:33.480 --> 00:08:36.080 maybe even raised crosswalks. It has bike lanes. 00:08:36.340 --> 00:08:38.980 And crucially, it has reduced parking. Reduced 00:08:38.980 --> 00:08:40.919 parking. Now, that's usually a deal breaker for 00:08:40.919 --> 00:08:42.740 developers, isn't it? They think, if I don't 00:08:42.740 --> 00:08:44.440 build a parking spot for every single tenant, 00:08:44.580 --> 00:08:46.600 nobody will rent. That's the old thinking, the 00:08:46.600 --> 00:08:49.600 automotive city mindset. The whole point of TOD 00:08:49.600 --> 00:08:52.120 is to make car ownership optional, or at least 00:08:52.120 --> 00:08:54.820 secondary. If you build a massive parking garage, 00:08:55.080 --> 00:08:57.500 you are inducing people to drive. You're sending 00:08:57.500 --> 00:08:59.840 a signal. The signal is bring your car. Right. 00:08:59.940 --> 00:09:02.039 If you build a great walkway to the train, you 00:09:02.039 --> 00:09:04.460 induce them to ride. You can't design for the 00:09:04.460 --> 00:09:06.519 car and the train simultaneously and expect the 00:09:06.519 --> 00:09:08.879 train to win. The car eats up too much space 00:09:08.879 --> 00:09:11.659 and money. It undermines the whole project. So 00:09:11.659 --> 00:09:14.240 hearing all this, it feels like we were trying 00:09:14.240 --> 00:09:17.120 to engineer something. Yeah. That, well, then 00:09:17.120 --> 00:09:19.700 we used to do this naturally. I look at old photos 00:09:19.700 --> 00:09:22.039 of cities from, say, the 1900s, and they look 00:09:22.039 --> 00:09:23.980 exactly like what you're describing. You've hit 00:09:23.980 --> 00:09:26.919 on a really, really important point. TOD is not 00:09:26.919 --> 00:09:29.340 a new invention. It's a back to the future moment 00:09:29.340 --> 00:09:32.340 for urban planning. We are trying to remember 00:09:32.340 --> 00:09:34.899 how to do something we used to be experts at. 00:09:35.059 --> 00:09:37.259 Okay, so let's go back to that era. The sources 00:09:37.259 --> 00:09:40.159 call it the transit city era. Right. If you look 00:09:40.159 --> 00:09:43.000 at the timeline between roughly 1850 and 1940, 00:09:43.480 --> 00:09:45.879 the transit city was the dominant form of urban 00:09:45.879 --> 00:09:48.039 growth in the industrialized world. This was 00:09:48.039 --> 00:09:50.519 the age of the steam train and then, more importantly, 00:09:50.779 --> 00:09:53.559 the electric streetcar. This is before the interstate 00:09:53.559 --> 00:09:56.110 highway system. before the two -car garage became 00:09:56.110 --> 00:09:59.049 the american dream exactly cities grew but they 00:09:59.049 --> 00:10:01.389 grew in a very specific shape they couldn't just 00:10:01.389 --> 00:10:03.830 sprawl out in every direction like a blob they 00:10:03.830 --> 00:10:06.450 expanded along the rail lines it was often called 00:10:06.450 --> 00:10:09.169 a pearls on a string model of development the 00:10:09.169 --> 00:10:11.629 stations were the pearls and the rail line was 00:10:11.629 --> 00:10:14.460 the string Precisely. You literally couldn't 00:10:14.460 --> 00:10:16.860 build housing five miles away from the station 00:10:16.860 --> 00:10:19.019 because there was no way for anyone to get there. 00:10:19.080 --> 00:10:21.600 The car didn't exist or wasn't common. So walkability 00:10:21.600 --> 00:10:24.379 wasn't a feature you paid extra for in a luxury 00:10:24.379 --> 00:10:27.279 condo. Right. It was just physics. It was a necessity. 00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:29.139 If you couldn't walk to the tram, you couldn't 00:10:29.139 --> 00:10:31.799 get to your factory job. And that dictated the 00:10:31.799 --> 00:10:33.980 architecture and the urban form. Like the old 00:10:33.980 --> 00:10:36.600 streetcar suburbs of the 1920s. Perfect example. 00:10:36.659 --> 00:10:38.840 You see them in cities like Boston, Philadelphia, 00:10:39.200 --> 00:10:42.320 Chicago. They have narrow streets. Houses often 00:10:42.320 --> 00:10:44.940 have big front porches to encourage social interaction. 00:10:45.220 --> 00:10:47.659 And the garages, if there was a garage at all, 00:10:47.759 --> 00:10:50.059 were detached and tucked away in a back alley. 00:10:50.240 --> 00:10:52.639 The front of the house was for people, not for 00:10:52.639 --> 00:10:56.519 cars. And then we stopped. What happened? What 00:10:56.519 --> 00:10:59.220 broke that model? World War II happened and then 00:10:59.220 --> 00:11:02.679 the post -war economic boom. We shifted hard 00:11:02.679 --> 00:11:05.580 to the automotive city. We decided that the future 00:11:05.580 --> 00:11:08.019 was personal freedom and that freedom was expressed 00:11:08.019 --> 00:11:10.539 through the private automobile. So we built the 00:11:10.539 --> 00:11:13.139 highways. We built the highways. We subsidized 00:11:13.139 --> 00:11:15.519 mortgages for single -family homes in the suburbs 00:11:15.519 --> 00:11:18.899 through the FHA. And this is the craziest part. 00:11:19.059 --> 00:11:22.720 We passed zoning laws that actually made the 00:11:22.720 --> 00:11:25.559 transit city illegal to build. Wait, illegal? 00:11:25.960 --> 00:11:28.120 How can you make a neighborhood illegal? Yes, 00:11:28.139 --> 00:11:31.580 through what's called Euclidean zoning. It mandates 00:11:31.580 --> 00:11:34.419 the separation of uses. You can't put a corner 00:11:34.419 --> 00:11:36.639 store here. This is a residential -only zone. 00:11:36.980 --> 00:11:39.720 You must have a 30 -foot setback from the street. 00:11:40.120 --> 00:11:42.899 You must have two parking spaces per housing 00:11:42.899 --> 00:11:45.399 unit. All the things that creates brawl. Every 00:11:45.399 --> 00:11:48.360 single rule was designed to make density impossible 00:11:48.360 --> 00:11:51.720 and driving mandatory. We legislated the sprawl 00:11:51.720 --> 00:11:53.679 into existence. So we didn't just drift into 00:11:53.679 --> 00:11:55.940 car dependency. We planned our way into it. We 00:11:55.940 --> 00:11:58.019 engineered it. We aggressively engineered it 00:11:58.019 --> 00:12:00.860 for decades. And many developing nations often 00:12:00.860 --> 00:12:03.440 skip the transit phase entirely. They went straight 00:12:03.440 --> 00:12:05.919 from compact walking cities to massive traffic 00:12:05.919 --> 00:12:09.279 jams in the 1970s and 80s, trying to copy the 00:12:09.279 --> 00:12:11.740 American model. But now the pendulum is swinging 00:12:11.740 --> 00:12:14.700 back. The notes mention a key figure in this 00:12:14.700 --> 00:12:17.740 revival, a guy named Peter Calthorpe in the 90s. 00:12:17.940 --> 00:12:21.600 Peter Calthorpe is a huge figure. In 1993, he 00:12:21.600 --> 00:12:23.539 published a really influential book called The 00:12:23.539 --> 00:12:26.379 Next American Metropolis. He essentially looked 00:12:26.379 --> 00:12:28.620 at the mess of sprawl, the environmental damage, 00:12:28.799 --> 00:12:31.679 the social isolation, and said, this isn't working. 00:12:31.779 --> 00:12:34.590 It isn't sustainable. So what was his proposal? 00:12:34.870 --> 00:12:37.149 He looked back to the pre -war models and also 00:12:37.149 --> 00:12:40.049 to the Garden City movement in the UK. He helped 00:12:40.049 --> 00:12:43.149 formalize the modern definition of TOD, laying 00:12:43.149 --> 00:12:45.090 out the design principles we just discussed. 00:12:45.309 --> 00:12:48.169 The walkability, the mixed use, the density at 00:12:48.169 --> 00:12:50.549 the node. So he wasn't inventing a new technology. 00:12:50.730 --> 00:12:52.929 He was just pointing at the old blueprints and 00:12:52.929 --> 00:12:55.230 saying, hey guys, maybe we shouldn't have thrown 00:12:55.230 --> 00:12:58.190 these away. Precisely. The goal was to find a 00:12:58.190 --> 00:13:01.029 way to curb urban sprawl and reduce our insane 00:13:01.029 --> 00:13:04.409 car dependency. And that brings us to the present, 00:13:04.470 --> 00:13:06.129 where cities all over the world are trying to 00:13:06.129 --> 00:13:08.610 retrofit this concept. And this is where it gets 00:13:08.610 --> 00:13:11.029 really interesting, because the execution varies 00:13:11.029 --> 00:13:13.289 wildly depending on where you are. Okay, let's 00:13:13.289 --> 00:13:15.169 do a world tour then. I want to start in Latin 00:13:15.169 --> 00:13:17.809 America, because one city comes up in almost 00:13:17.809 --> 00:13:20.190 every urban planning textbook I've ever seen. 00:13:20.950 --> 00:13:25.350 Curitiba, Brazil. Why is Curitiba the rock star 00:13:25.350 --> 00:13:28.909 of TOD? Curitiba is famous because they innovated 00:13:28.909 --> 00:13:32.480 out of scarcity. In the 1970s, the city was growing 00:13:32.480 --> 00:13:35.500 incredibly fast. They knew they needed a mass 00:13:35.500 --> 00:13:37.879 transit system, a subway. A classic solution. 00:13:38.259 --> 00:13:40.480 Right, but subways are astronomically expensive. 00:13:40.860 --> 00:13:43.120 Digging tunnels costs billions of dollars and 00:13:43.120 --> 00:13:46.000 takes decades. Curitiba didn't have the money 00:13:46.000 --> 00:13:48.379 and they didn't have the time. So they were broke 00:13:48.379 --> 00:13:51.200 and crowded. That's a bad combination. A terrible 00:13:51.200 --> 00:13:53.600 combination. So their mayor at the time, Jamie 00:13:53.600 --> 00:13:55.779 Lerner, who was an architect, came up with a 00:13:55.779 --> 00:13:58.799 revolutionary idea. They invented the surface 00:13:58.799 --> 00:14:03.039 subway. They created the world's first true bus 00:14:03.039 --> 00:14:06.639 rapid transit system, or BRT. But, and this is 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:08.799 the crucial part that so many other cities miss, 00:14:09.019 --> 00:14:11.360 they didn't just paint a bus lane on an existing 00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:13.679 road. Right, because I've seen bus lanes in U 00:14:13.679 --> 00:14:16.200 .S. cities that are just... A suggestion. Cars 00:14:16.200 --> 00:14:18.299 turn into them. Delivery trucks park in them. 00:14:18.340 --> 00:14:21.019 It's not rapid at all. Not at all. Curitiba treated 00:14:21.019 --> 00:14:23.360 the bus exactly like a train. They built dedicated 00:14:23.360 --> 00:14:25.379 lanes, often in the center of the road, that 00:14:25.379 --> 00:14:28.019 cars physically cannot enter. And they built 00:14:28.019 --> 00:14:30.500 what they called tube stations. These glass tubes 00:14:30.500 --> 00:14:33.500 on the sidewalk. Yes. You pay your fare on the 00:14:33.500 --> 00:14:36.080 platform before the bus arrives. The platform 00:14:36.080 --> 00:14:39.139 is level with the bus floor. Pre -warding payment. 00:14:40.000 --> 00:14:42.080 That seems like a small detail, but it's huge, 00:14:42.200 --> 00:14:44.000 isn't it? It's everything. It means when the 00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:46.500 bus pulls up, multiple doors open, people flow 00:14:46.500 --> 00:14:49.539 on and off instantly, just like a subway. There's 00:14:49.539 --> 00:14:52.080 no single file line of people fumbling for change 00:14:52.080 --> 00:14:54.340 while the driver waits and traffic backs up. 00:14:54.379 --> 00:14:56.639 It makes the system fast and efficient. But the 00:14:56.639 --> 00:14:59.059 TOD magic wasn't just the bus itself. It was 00:14:59.059 --> 00:15:01.519 the zoning around it. That was the secret sauce. 00:15:01.899 --> 00:15:04.620 They integrated the zoning laws to match the 00:15:04.620 --> 00:15:07.539 transit capacity. Along these main bus corridors, 00:15:07.840 --> 00:15:10.159 they allowed the highest density tall commercial 00:15:10.159 --> 00:15:13.279 and residential skyscraper. Okay. But if you 00:15:13.279 --> 00:15:15.559 move just one block away from the bus line, the 00:15:15.559 --> 00:15:18.740 allowed height drops dramatically. Two blocks 00:15:18.740 --> 00:15:21.940 away, it drops again. The fried egg again. But 00:15:21.940 --> 00:15:23.980 for a whole quarter, not just a single station. 00:15:24.159 --> 00:15:26.940 A linear fried egg, exactly. It funneled all 00:15:26.940 --> 00:15:29.419 the new growth directly onto the transit spines. 00:15:29.970 --> 00:15:32.649 And the source notes that this was participatory 00:15:32.649 --> 00:15:35.929 city planning. They ran public education campaigns. 00:15:36.409 --> 00:15:39.570 They made the bus a point of civic pride. It 00:15:39.570 --> 00:15:42.210 wasn't the loser cruiser for people who couldn't 00:15:42.210 --> 00:15:45.029 afford a car. It was the smart, modern way the 00:15:45.029 --> 00:15:47.429 city moved. That's a branding victory as much 00:15:47.429 --> 00:15:49.669 as an engineering one. And I see other cities 00:15:49.669 --> 00:15:52.070 copied this playbook. Guatemala City has the 00:15:52.070 --> 00:15:55.289 POT plan. Yes. Mayor Alvaro Arzu implemented 00:15:55.289 --> 00:15:58.110 the POT plan, which stands for Land Use Management 00:15:58.110 --> 00:16:01.690 Plan. They built their transmetro BRT lines and 00:16:01.690 --> 00:16:04.929 did the exact same thing, building tall, mixed 00:16:04.929 --> 00:16:07.309 -use structures along those arterial roads and 00:16:07.309 --> 00:16:09.529 using that same tapering height model as you 00:16:09.529 --> 00:16:11.450 move into the neighborhoods. It's the standard 00:16:11.450 --> 00:16:13.490 playbook for Latin American urbanism now. It 00:16:13.490 --> 00:16:15.289 really is. And you see variations elsewhere, 00:16:15.409 --> 00:16:17.710 like in Mexico City. They're in this constant 00:16:17.710 --> 00:16:19.740 battle. for their life against air pollution. 00:16:19.940 --> 00:16:21.620 So they're a bit more aggressive. A bit more 00:16:21.620 --> 00:16:24.299 stick than carrot, yes. They took lanes away 00:16:24.299 --> 00:16:27.080 from cars to create busways, but they also have 00:16:27.080 --> 00:16:30.440 really strict regulations. They ban older, more 00:16:30.440 --> 00:16:33.419 polluting cars. They have no drive days based 00:16:33.419 --> 00:16:35.600 on your license plate number. I've heard of that. 00:16:35.820 --> 00:16:38.440 But here's the smart part. If you have an electric 00:16:38.440 --> 00:16:41.039 car, you get free parking and you're exempt. 00:16:41.139 --> 00:16:44.029 You can drive every day. So they are using both 00:16:44.029 --> 00:16:46.730 infrastructure and regulation to force a behavior 00:16:46.730 --> 00:16:49.370 change away from fossil fuels. OK, let's fly 00:16:49.370 --> 00:16:51.529 across the Pacific now to Hong Kong. This is 00:16:51.529 --> 00:16:53.669 the one I've been waiting for. The rail plus 00:16:53.669 --> 00:16:56.129 property model. You said earlier they made a 00:16:56.129 --> 00:16:58.850 profit of one and a half billion dollars in 2014. 00:16:59.269 --> 00:17:01.509 That just sounds impossible for public transit. 00:17:01.929 --> 00:17:04.809 How? This is the gold standard of financial sustainability, 00:17:05.109 --> 00:17:07.589 and it's a model that many cities dream of, but 00:17:07.589 --> 00:17:09.650 few can replicate. Why not? Well, let's break 00:17:09.650 --> 00:17:12.089 it down. In most cities, the transit agency is 00:17:12.089 --> 00:17:14.910 just a mover of people. They collect fares, which 00:17:14.910 --> 00:17:17.789 rarely, if ever, cover the cost of running the 00:17:17.789 --> 00:17:20.589 trains. Right. The fare box recovery ratio is 00:17:20.589 --> 00:17:22.910 usually something like 40 or 50 percent, if they're 00:17:22.910 --> 00:17:25.170 lucky. Exactly. So they have to go to the government, 00:17:25.349 --> 00:17:28.049 cap in hand, asking for subsidies to cover the 00:17:28.049 --> 00:17:31.730 gap. In Hong Kong, the MTR Corporation is a totally 00:17:31.730 --> 00:17:34.289 different beast. How so? They are given the land 00:17:34.289 --> 00:17:36.470 development rights by the government before the 00:17:36.470 --> 00:17:38.970 rail line is even built. Okay, walk me through 00:17:38.970 --> 00:17:41.970 the transaction, step by step. Let's say the 00:17:41.970 --> 00:17:44.309 government wants to build a new subway line to 00:17:44.309 --> 00:17:46.890 a sleepy, undeveloped part of the new territories. 00:17:47.230 --> 00:17:50.259 The land there is currently cheap. It's farmland, 00:17:50.440 --> 00:17:52.980 maybe some small villages. It's hard to get to. 00:17:53.119 --> 00:17:55.880 So its market value is low. Very low. The government 00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:58.460 grants the land rights for the areas around the 00:17:58.460 --> 00:18:01.720 future stations to the MTR at that low pre -rail 00:18:01.720 --> 00:18:04.299 market price. So MTR gets the land for cheap. 00:18:04.440 --> 00:18:06.180 For pennies on the dollar of what it will be 00:18:06.180 --> 00:18:09.380 worth. Then MTR builds the railway. Suddenly 00:18:09.380 --> 00:18:12.720 that sleepy farmland is a 20 -minute air -conditioned 00:18:12.720 --> 00:18:14.259 ride from one of the world's biggest financial 00:18:14.259 --> 00:18:17.579 centers. And the value of that land skyrockets. 00:18:18.089 --> 00:18:21.289 Through the roof. MTR then partners with private 00:18:21.289 --> 00:18:23.829 real estate developers to build massive residential 00:18:23.829 --> 00:18:26.650 towers and multi -story shopping malls directly 00:18:26.650 --> 00:18:30.329 on top of and next to the stations. And MTR gets 00:18:30.329 --> 00:18:32.490 a cut of the profits from selling those apartments 00:18:32.490 --> 00:18:35.430 and a share of the recurring rental income from 00:18:35.430 --> 00:18:38.119 the mall. That is brilliant. Yeah. Usually the 00:18:38.119 --> 00:18:41.039 city pays billions to build the subway and a 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:43.319 bunch of random private landlords who happen 00:18:43.319 --> 00:18:46.440 to own property nearby get rich because their 00:18:46.440 --> 00:18:48.619 property value doubled and they did nothing to 00:18:48.619 --> 00:18:50.720 earn it. You've nailed it. That's the problem. 00:18:50.980 --> 00:18:53.460 Hong Kong says, no, the public built the train. 00:18:53.539 --> 00:18:56.720 So the public via the MTR should capture that 00:18:56.720 --> 00:18:58.559 value to pay for the train. It's called value 00:18:58.559 --> 00:19:01.450 capture. And because the MTR owns the malls and 00:19:01.450 --> 00:19:03.809 often manages the apartment complexes, they get 00:19:03.809 --> 00:19:06.750 this steady, massive stream of recurring revenue 00:19:06.750 --> 00:19:09.390 from rent and management fees, not just from 00:19:09.390 --> 00:19:12.650 ticket sales. That $1 .5 billion profit isn't 00:19:12.650 --> 00:19:14.809 from turnstiles. It's from being one of the biggest 00:19:14.809 --> 00:19:17.250 landlords in the city. And the stats are crazy. 00:19:17.390 --> 00:19:19.869 Something like 90 % of all trips in Hong Kong 00:19:19.869 --> 00:19:22.210 are made by public transport. Which, in turn, 00:19:22.349 --> 00:19:24.789 makes the retail space in their station malls 00:19:24.789 --> 00:19:27.549 the most valuable in the world. You have a guaranteed 00:19:27.549 --> 00:19:29.750 footfall of millions of people walking past your 00:19:29.750 --> 00:19:32.190 shop every single day. It's a perfect virtuous 00:19:32.190 --> 00:19:34.890 cycle. The transit feeds the property and the 00:19:34.890 --> 00:19:37.210 property feeds the transit. So why don't we do 00:19:37.210 --> 00:19:39.650 that everywhere? Why doesn't the New York MTA 00:19:39.650 --> 00:19:42.569 just start building condos over Grand Central? 00:19:43.109 --> 00:19:46.509 Politics, history and property rights. In the 00:19:46.509 --> 00:19:49.109 U .S., the government usually doesn't own the 00:19:49.109 --> 00:19:51.390 land around the stations. Private individuals 00:19:51.390 --> 00:19:54.250 do. The idea of the government using eminent 00:19:54.250 --> 00:19:56.869 domain to take that land, not for the track itself, 00:19:57.029 --> 00:19:59.309 but for real estate development, is politically 00:19:59.309 --> 00:20:02.390 difficult. A non -starter. And legally complex. 00:20:02.789 --> 00:20:05.309 But in Hong Kong, because of its colonial history, 00:20:05.490 --> 00:20:07.430 the government technically owns all the land 00:20:07.430 --> 00:20:10.109 and leases it out. So it has much more power 00:20:10.109 --> 00:20:13.109 to dictate these kinds of integrated deals. That's 00:20:13.109 --> 00:20:15.880 a fascinating distinction. Brings us nicely to 00:20:15.880 --> 00:20:18.420 North America. We have a bit of a neighborly 00:20:18.420 --> 00:20:20.799 rivalry here in the sources, Canada versus the 00:20:20.799 --> 00:20:24.740 USA. And it is a stark contrast. The source material 00:20:24.740 --> 00:20:27.519 notes that basically all major Canadian cities 00:20:27.519 --> 00:20:31.140 have TOD policies on the books. It is a standard 00:20:31.140 --> 00:20:34.099 accepted tool in their urban planning toolkit. 00:20:34.480 --> 00:20:36.480 Vancouver is the one I always hear about. The 00:20:36.480 --> 00:20:39.240 Skytrain. Vancouver is a textbook example of 00:20:39.240 --> 00:20:41.859 retrofitting. They built their Skytrain automated 00:20:41.859 --> 00:20:45.279 metro system starting for the Expo 86 World's 00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:48.720 Fair. And they very deliberately zoned for regional 00:20:48.720 --> 00:20:51.240 town centers at the major stations. Just like 00:20:51.240 --> 00:20:53.579 Metrotown. Exactly. Metrotown used to be, you 00:20:53.579 --> 00:20:56.680 know, a pretty standard suburban mall. Now it's 00:20:56.680 --> 00:20:59.460 a dense, high rise urban core, one of several 00:20:59.460 --> 00:21:01.700 in the region. And they have provincial legislation 00:21:01.700 --> 00:21:04.359 that effectively requires municipalities to plan 00:21:04.359 --> 00:21:07.089 for high density. within 800 meters of rapid 00:21:07.089 --> 00:21:09.109 transit. They don't just suggest it, they mandate 00:21:09.109 --> 00:21:11.529 it. Right. And you see similar success stories 00:21:11.529 --> 00:21:14.470 in Toronto. The entire Yonge Street subway line 00:21:14.470 --> 00:21:16.269 has been a corridor of high -rise development 00:21:16.269 --> 00:21:18.670 for decades. More recently, there's been a boom 00:21:18.670 --> 00:21:20.750 along Shepherd Avenue after a new line was built 00:21:20.750 --> 00:21:23.089 there. It's just culturally accepted in Canadian 00:21:23.089 --> 00:21:25.890 cities that stations equal towers. And the U 00:21:25.890 --> 00:21:29.559 .S. We invented the suburb. Are we getting any 00:21:29.559 --> 00:21:32.579 better at this? Or are we still stuck? We are 00:21:32.579 --> 00:21:35.140 getting better, but it's patchy. It's not a national 00:21:35.140 --> 00:21:38.380 or even statewide priority in most places. It 00:21:38.380 --> 00:21:40.660 happens in specific pockets where local leadership 00:21:40.660 --> 00:21:43.680 really pushes for it for a long time. The standout 00:21:43.680 --> 00:21:45.859 success story is Arlington County, Virginia. 00:21:46.180 --> 00:21:47.960 Right across the river from Washington, D .C. 00:21:48.000 --> 00:21:51.700 Correct. Specifically, the Rosslyn -Balston Corridor, 00:21:51.700 --> 00:21:54.259 which is served by the Metro's Orange and Silver 00:21:54.259 --> 00:21:56.160 Lines. I've been there. It's really impressive. 00:21:56.329 --> 00:21:57.950 You come out of the metro and it feels like a 00:21:57.950 --> 00:22:01.369 real downtown, but you walk two blocks away and 00:22:01.369 --> 00:22:04.829 it's quiet, leafy suburbia. That's their bullseye 00:22:04.829 --> 00:22:07.529 approach. For more than 30 years, they have consciously 00:22:07.529 --> 00:22:10.009 and consistently concentrated almost all their 00:22:10.009 --> 00:22:12.369 new commercial and residential development within 00:22:12.369 --> 00:22:14.670 that quarter to half mile walking distance of 00:22:14.670 --> 00:22:17.250 the metro stations. So inside the circle, high 00:22:17.250 --> 00:22:19.369 density. Outside the circle, they protect the 00:22:19.369 --> 00:22:21.819 existing single family homes. That was the political 00:22:21.819 --> 00:22:25.079 deal they made. And it worked so well, they received 00:22:25.079 --> 00:22:29.079 the EPA's very first National Award for Smart 00:22:29.079 --> 00:22:31.819 Growth Achievement all the way back in 2002. 00:22:32.099 --> 00:22:34.079 They've been at this for a long time. It's essentially 00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:36.700 the fried egg executed perfectly over a five 00:22:36.700 --> 00:22:39.720 mile stretch. It is. New Jersey is another interesting 00:22:39.720 --> 00:22:42.200 case from the sources. They have the Transit 00:22:42.200 --> 00:22:44.980 Village Initiative, which started back in 1999. 00:22:46.079 --> 00:22:47.960 How does that work? It's a state level program. 00:22:48.099 --> 00:22:50.539 The state government gives special designation 00:22:50.539 --> 00:22:53.500 and grants to towns that proactively rezone the 00:22:53.500 --> 00:22:55.660 area around their train stations for mixed use 00:22:55.660 --> 00:22:58.160 development, pedestrian improvements and affordable 00:22:58.160 --> 00:23:00.539 housing. So it's an incentive from the state 00:23:00.539 --> 00:23:03.140 to encourage good local planning. Exactly. It's 00:23:03.140 --> 00:23:06.039 a carrot. And they've designated about 35 of 00:23:06.039 --> 00:23:08.380 these transit villages so far all across the 00:23:08.380 --> 00:23:10.400 state. And then there's the San Francisco Bay 00:23:10.400 --> 00:23:12.559 Area, which is trying to catch up out of sheer 00:23:12.559 --> 00:23:15.039 desperation. They have to. The housing crisis 00:23:15.039 --> 00:23:17.619 and the traffic are just crippling. They are 00:23:17.619 --> 00:23:20.660 forecasting something like two million new people 00:23:20.660 --> 00:23:23.619 by 2035. They realize that if all those people 00:23:23.619 --> 00:23:26.019 drive cars, the entire region will basically 00:23:26.019 --> 00:23:28.980 seize up and cease to function. So their regional 00:23:28.980 --> 00:23:32.000 plan called Plan Bay Area tries to funnel at 00:23:32.000 --> 00:23:34.279 least 50 percent of all that new growth into 00:23:34.279 --> 00:23:37.059 what they call priority development areas. Which 00:23:37.059 --> 00:23:39.779 are just TODs by another name. Exactly. Areas 00:23:39.779 --> 00:23:43.460 within a half mile of high quality transit. massive 00:23:43.460 --> 00:23:46.599 ongoing effort to retrofit the sprawl they created. 00:23:46.819 --> 00:23:49.420 So the pressure is on, but I want to pivot now 00:23:49.420 --> 00:23:51.539 to the impact. We've talked about the what and 00:23:51.539 --> 00:23:53.039 the where, but let's talk about the so what. 00:23:53.319 --> 00:23:55.720 Section four in the outline, did this actually 00:23:55.720 --> 00:23:58.359 make the world a better place or is it just a 00:23:58.359 --> 00:24:00.799 more efficient way to pack people in? Let's start 00:24:00.799 --> 00:24:02.720 with the environment. The environmental case 00:24:02.720 --> 00:24:04.819 is very strong, but there is a catch that might 00:24:04.819 --> 00:24:07.140 surprise you. First, the good news, which is 00:24:07.140 --> 00:24:10.000 emissions. A study in Los Angeles that cited 00:24:10.000 --> 00:24:12.859 showed that TOD reduces greenhouse gases and 00:24:12.859 --> 00:24:15.579 smog -forming emissions by about 30 % compared 00:24:15.579 --> 00:24:17.759 to conventional low -density suburban areas. 00:24:18.019 --> 00:24:19.799 That's a significant cut. Is that just because 00:24:19.799 --> 00:24:22.259 people are driving less? Driving less is the 00:24:22.259 --> 00:24:25.180 biggest part of it, for sure. Fewer car trips, 00:24:25.299 --> 00:24:27.839 shorter car trips. But it's also the buildings 00:24:27.839 --> 00:24:31.319 themselves. How so? An apartment or a condo in 00:24:31.319 --> 00:24:33.920 a dense building is much more energy efficient 00:24:33.920 --> 00:24:36.779 to heat and cool than a detached single family 00:24:36.779 --> 00:24:39.880 house. You have shared walls, so you lose less 00:24:39.880 --> 00:24:42.539 heat. The building has a smaller overall footprint 00:24:42.539 --> 00:24:45.619 per person. It is just inherently greener from 00:24:45.619 --> 00:24:47.819 an energy consumption perspective. OK, that makes 00:24:47.819 --> 00:24:50.119 sense. But you mentioned a catch. And I remember 00:24:50.119 --> 00:24:52.869 you teasing something in the intro about. Hotter 00:24:52.869 --> 00:24:55.609 neighborhoods. Yes. This is the urban heat island 00:24:55.609 --> 00:24:58.630 effect. And it's a really important counterintuitive 00:24:58.630 --> 00:25:02.009 finding. A study in Brisbane, Australia found 00:25:02.009 --> 00:25:04.789 that TODs can actually be significantly hotter 00:25:04.789 --> 00:25:06.710 than the surrounding suburbs. Wait, hold on. 00:25:06.730 --> 00:25:08.829 We just said TOD is the green solution. Now you're 00:25:08.829 --> 00:25:10.849 telling me these ecovillages are baking in the 00:25:10.849 --> 00:25:13.710 sun. How does that work? It's physics. When you 00:25:13.710 --> 00:25:15.630 increase density, what are you building with? 00:25:15.849 --> 00:25:19.109 Concrete, asphalt, steel, glass. Dark, hard, 00:25:19.210 --> 00:25:22.769 non -porous surfaces. These materials are fantastic 00:25:22.769 --> 00:25:25.309 at absorbing and retaining heat from the sun. 00:25:25.450 --> 00:25:27.890 And when you build dents, you often pave over 00:25:27.890 --> 00:25:30.650 the natural green space, the lawns, the trees, 00:25:30.849 --> 00:25:33.369 the soil, that would otherwise cool the area 00:25:33.369 --> 00:25:36.250 through shade and evapotranspiration. So if you 00:25:36.250 --> 00:25:38.609 aren't careful, you replace a cool green landscape 00:25:38.609 --> 00:25:42.140 with a hot concrete jungle. Exactly. And that 00:25:42.140 --> 00:25:45.000 concrete and asphalt holds the heat long after 00:25:45.000 --> 00:25:46.960 the sun goes dim, keeping nighttime temperatures 00:25:46.960 --> 00:25:49.720 artificially high. The lesson here is that you 00:25:49.720 --> 00:25:52.339 can't just maximize density. You have to maximize 00:25:52.339 --> 00:25:56.000 livability. Good TOD planning must consciously 00:25:56.000 --> 00:25:58.579 and deliberately include green spaces. Things 00:25:58.579 --> 00:26:00.859 like green roofs, street trees, pocket parks. 00:26:01.140 --> 00:26:03.339 Yes, permeable pavers, light -colored surfaces. 00:26:03.539 --> 00:26:05.819 You have to mitigate the heat island effect by 00:26:05.819 --> 00:26:07.839 design. You can't just rely on the train to save 00:26:07.839 --> 00:26:10.039 the planet. You need the trees and the parks, 00:26:10.099 --> 00:26:12.859 too. What about... the economics for the businesses 00:26:12.859 --> 00:26:14.880 and for the people actually living there. Generally, 00:26:14.960 --> 00:26:17.799 it's a big financial win. The source notes a 00:26:17.799 --> 00:26:19.720 study from Phoenix that looked at businesses 00:26:19.720 --> 00:26:23.480 near their new light rail line. They saw significantly 00:26:23.480 --> 00:26:27.019 more new starts, new businesses opening, especially 00:26:27.019 --> 00:26:29.200 in knowledge industries, services and retail, 00:26:29.460 --> 00:26:32.319 compared to similar areas far from the rail. 00:26:32.579 --> 00:26:35.900 It creates a hub of economic activity. And I'm 00:26:35.900 --> 00:26:38.230 guessing property values go up. Oh, absolutely. 00:26:38.549 --> 00:26:40.690 A San Diego study confirmed that pretty clearly. 00:26:41.150 --> 00:26:43.690 Condo values reliably rise as you get closer 00:26:43.690 --> 00:26:45.789 to transit stations and as the walkability of 00:26:45.789 --> 00:26:48.029 the neighborhood improves. But the biggest impact 00:26:48.029 --> 00:26:51.609 is on the household budget. A study in L .A. 00:26:51.630 --> 00:26:53.970 found that on average, residents and TODs save 00:26:53.970 --> 00:26:57.569 about $3 ,100 per year on energy and travel costs 00:26:57.569 --> 00:27:00.329 combined. That is a huge chunk of change for 00:27:00.329 --> 00:27:02.450 a family. That's a vacation or an investment 00:27:02.450 --> 00:27:04.990 account or a big cushion for emergencies just 00:27:04.990 --> 00:27:07.119 from not having to pay for gas insurance. and 00:27:07.119 --> 00:27:09.299 repairs on a second car or maybe even a first. 00:27:09.480 --> 00:27:11.759 It's a massive location efficiency dividend. 00:27:12.079 --> 00:27:14.400 But, and here we get to the biggest point of 00:27:14.400 --> 00:27:17.079 friction in the entire TOD debate, that rise 00:27:17.079 --> 00:27:19.539 in property value is a very sharp double -edged 00:27:19.539 --> 00:27:21.099 sword. I think I know where you're going with 00:27:21.099 --> 00:27:24.180 this, gentrification. This is the critical conflict. 00:27:24.240 --> 00:27:27.079 This is the central challenge. We build these 00:27:27.079 --> 00:27:29.740 wonderful, convenient, walkable neighborhoods 00:27:29.740 --> 00:27:33.630 to be efficient and accessible. But because they 00:27:33.630 --> 00:27:36.230 are so desirable because people want to walk 00:27:36.230 --> 00:27:38.410 to a coffee shop and take the train to work the 00:27:38.410 --> 00:27:41.450 demand spikes and when demand spikes rents and 00:27:41.450 --> 00:27:44.519 home prices go up. And the very people who arguably 00:27:44.519 --> 00:27:47.519 need the transit the most, the low -income workers, 00:27:47.720 --> 00:27:50.039 the service staff who can't afford a car, they 00:27:50.039 --> 00:27:52.539 get priced out. Precisely. They get pushed to 00:27:52.539 --> 00:27:54.359 the outer suburbs where rent is cheaper, but 00:27:54.359 --> 00:27:56.140 now they are forced to buy a car they can't really 00:27:56.140 --> 00:27:58.559 afford or take a two -hour multi -transfer bus 00:27:58.559 --> 00:28:00.680 ride to get to their job in the city center. 00:28:00.779 --> 00:28:02.779 It completely defeats the social equity purpose. 00:28:03.160 --> 00:28:06.220 So is TOD just a luxury product for young professionals 00:28:06.220 --> 00:28:09.660 and empty nesters? It can be if it's left unchecked, 00:28:09.660 --> 00:28:12.240 if you just let the market run wild. The notes 00:28:12.240 --> 00:28:14.440 mentioned that some of the early TOD ordinances 00:28:14.440 --> 00:28:16.680 in Chicago were heavily criticized for this. 00:28:16.839 --> 00:28:19.460 They were either built in already wealthy white 00:28:19.460 --> 00:28:21.859 areas or they sparked immediate displacement 00:28:21.859 --> 00:28:24.180 in lower income neighborhoods. So how do you 00:28:24.180 --> 00:28:25.799 fix that? Because the answer can't be to just 00:28:25.799 --> 00:28:27.880 stop building things, right? That just makes 00:28:27.880 --> 00:28:30.460 the overall housing shortage even worse for everyone. 00:28:30.640 --> 00:28:33.220 No, that's the worst possible response. The solution 00:28:33.220 --> 00:28:35.779 is policy. Chicago is actually trying to pivot 00:28:35.779 --> 00:28:38.839 now with what they call their 2020 ETOD plan 00:28:38.839 --> 00:28:41.880 equitable transit oriented development. So the 00:28:41.880 --> 00:28:45.160 E is for equity. Yes. The solution is to mandate 00:28:45.160 --> 00:28:48.160 affordable housing as part of the mix, to use 00:28:48.160 --> 00:28:51.220 inclusionary zoning, to fund land trusts, to 00:28:51.220 --> 00:28:53.920 protect existing tenants from eviction. It's 00:28:53.920 --> 00:28:55.960 not just an engineering problem. It's a social 00:28:55.960 --> 00:28:58.299 policy problem. So you have to build for everyone 00:28:58.299 --> 00:29:01.359 from the start. 100%. The rebuttal to the gentrification 00:29:01.359 --> 00:29:04.319 fear is that we need abundant housing at all 00:29:04.319 --> 00:29:07.059 price points. If we severely restrict supply, 00:29:07.339 --> 00:29:09.859 prices go up everywhere. If we build massive 00:29:09.859 --> 00:29:12.130 density with... With equity baked into the plan 00:29:12.130 --> 00:29:14.849 from day one, we have a fighting chance to stabilize 00:29:14.849 --> 00:29:17.730 costs and create inclusive communities. But the 00:29:17.730 --> 00:29:19.849 market will not do that on its own. It needs 00:29:19.849 --> 00:29:22.630 strong public sector guardrails. Let's look toward 00:29:22.630 --> 00:29:25.329 the future then. Section 5, where is TOD going 00:29:25.329 --> 00:29:27.970 next? Is this trend accelerating? It seems to 00:29:27.970 --> 00:29:30.359 be. It's expanding globally into new markets. 00:29:30.599 --> 00:29:33.200 We are seeing massive projects in Southeast Asia. 00:29:33.359 --> 00:29:36.240 The sources mention Indonesia, Jakarta is building 00:29:36.240 --> 00:29:38.920 a whole network of TODs with specific themes, 00:29:39.099 --> 00:29:41.900 like the Duku Atas transport hub that integrates 00:29:41.900 --> 00:29:44.779 multiple rail and bus lines. And Thailand, too. 00:29:44.920 --> 00:29:48.180 Yes, Thailand has major proposals for TODs around 00:29:48.180 --> 00:29:50.579 their new high -speed rail stations, trying to 00:29:50.579 --> 00:29:53.339 create new city centers in places like Ayutthaya 00:29:53.339 --> 00:29:57.079 and Pattaya. Malaysia and even Iran in Isfahan 00:29:57.079 --> 00:29:59.869 are using using their new subway systems as anchors 00:29:59.869 --> 00:30:01.910 for this kind of planned development. So Asia 00:30:01.910 --> 00:30:04.230 is doubling down on this model. It's becoming 00:30:04.230 --> 00:30:07.029 the global standard for rapid urbanization. It 00:30:07.029 --> 00:30:09.549 really is. But there is one place that, funnily 00:30:09.549 --> 00:30:12.009 enough, doesn't really talk about TOD very much. 00:30:12.109 --> 00:30:14.619 And that's Europe. Why is that? You'd think they'd 00:30:14.619 --> 00:30:16.759 be leaders in this. This is the funny part, and 00:30:16.759 --> 00:30:18.680 it gets back to what we said about history. The 00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:20.339 source points this out, and I was talking to 00:30:20.339 --> 00:30:23.019 a planner from Copenhagen recently. When you 00:30:23.019 --> 00:30:25.579 say TOD to a European planner, they kind of look 00:30:25.579 --> 00:30:27.859 at you with a bit of confusion because in many 00:30:27.859 --> 00:30:30.200 European cities, that's just a city. It's not 00:30:30.200 --> 00:30:32.680 a special project. It's just how they've lived 00:30:32.680 --> 00:30:35.619 for the last 300 years. Exactly. Take Paris. 00:30:36.220 --> 00:30:38.680 The metro stations are almost never more than 00:30:38.680 --> 00:30:41.400 500 meters apart from each other. The density 00:30:41.400 --> 00:30:43.599 of apartment buildings is remarkably consistent 00:30:43.599 --> 00:30:46.380 across the entire core city. The walkability 00:30:46.380 --> 00:30:49.339 is just baked in. The whole city is a transit 00:30:49.339 --> 00:30:52.460 -oriented development. They don't need a special 00:30:52.460 --> 00:30:54.680 acronym for what they consider normal. That's 00:30:54.680 --> 00:30:56.859 a great reality check. We're over here in North 00:30:56.859 --> 00:30:59.980 America giving out awards for smart growth, and 00:30:59.980 --> 00:31:04.259 Paris is just like, build in a city. for tuesday 00:31:04.259 --> 00:31:07.259 essentially yeah we are spending billions trying 00:31:07.259 --> 00:31:09.799 to re -engineer what we systematically destroyed 00:31:09.799 --> 00:31:12.339 while they just for the most part never broke 00:31:12.339 --> 00:31:14.259 it in the first place wow we've covered so much 00:31:14.259 --> 00:31:16.160 ground today from the physics of the 10 -minute 00:31:16.160 --> 00:31:18.079 walk to the billions of dollars in hong kong 00:31:18.079 --> 00:31:20.019 real estate Let's try to tie this all together. 00:31:20.200 --> 00:31:21.960 What's the big story here? If we look at the 00:31:21.960 --> 00:31:24.059 whole arc, it's really a story of technology 00:31:24.059 --> 00:31:26.420 and choice. We started with the steam trains 00:31:26.420 --> 00:31:29.680 and streetcars of 1850 that naturally created 00:31:29.680 --> 00:31:32.240 these dense, walkable communities out of necessity. 00:31:32.640 --> 00:31:34.960 Then we invented a new technology, the private 00:31:34.960 --> 00:31:37.460 automobile. And we made a conscious choice to 00:31:37.460 --> 00:31:39.799 rebuild our entire society around it, leading 00:31:39.799 --> 00:31:43.420 to sprawl. And now we are realizing the immense 00:31:43.420 --> 00:31:46.680 costs of that choice in time stuck in traffic, 00:31:46.779 --> 00:31:49.140 in money spent on cars. in carbon emissions, 00:31:49.299 --> 00:31:52.140 and we're using planning and policy to put the 00:31:52.140 --> 00:31:54.799 pieces back together. Density plus transit plus 00:31:54.799 --> 00:31:57.400 walkability equals sustainable living. That is 00:31:57.400 --> 00:32:00.220 the formula. It's not magic, it's just good geometry. 00:32:00.599 --> 00:32:03.420 So for you listening, here is the takeaway. The 00:32:03.420 --> 00:32:05.299 next time you are moving through your city, whether 00:32:05.299 --> 00:32:07.920 you're walking, driving, or on a bus, look at 00:32:07.920 --> 00:32:10.099 the bones of the neighborhood. Ask yourself, 00:32:10.279 --> 00:32:13.319 are you in a yoke? Are you in the white? Or are 00:32:13.319 --> 00:32:15.259 you somewhere else entirely? Are you in a place 00:32:15.259 --> 00:32:18.039 designed for you, the human, or for your car? 00:32:18.259 --> 00:32:20.900 And consider the trade -off. We are so often 00:32:20.900 --> 00:32:23.019 sold this idea that a car represents freedom. 00:32:23.440 --> 00:32:25.579 But think about the freedom of the transit village, 00:32:25.819 --> 00:32:27.740 the freedom from traffic jams, the freedom from 00:32:27.740 --> 00:32:30.400 gas prices and car insurance payments, the freedom 00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:32.400 to read a book or listen to this on your commute 00:32:32.400 --> 00:32:34.559 instead of white -knuckling it behind the wheel. 00:32:34.799 --> 00:32:36.900 And I want to leave you with one final, slightly 00:32:36.900 --> 00:32:40.420 provocative thought to chew on. Our sources mention 00:32:40.420 --> 00:32:43.119 that opponents of TOD often argue that people, 00:32:43.279 --> 00:32:46.559 especially Americans, simply prefer the sprawl. 00:32:46.779 --> 00:32:49.759 They say we want the big lawn and the three -car 00:32:49.759 --> 00:32:52.839 garage, and that density is somehow unnatural 00:32:52.839 --> 00:32:55.680 or un -American. You hear that argument a lot, 00:32:55.799 --> 00:32:57.700 that the market is just giving people what they 00:32:57.700 --> 00:32:59.980 want. But the counterargument is that preferences 00:32:59.980 --> 00:33:03.299 are shaped by the options you're given. So is 00:33:03.299 --> 00:33:06.319 that preference nature? Are we genetically wired 00:33:06.319 --> 00:33:10.750 to want a lawnmower? Or is it nurture? Is the 00:33:10.750 --> 00:33:13.369 result of 70 years of government subsidies, zoning 00:33:13.369 --> 00:33:16.190 laws, and massive infrastructure spending that 00:33:16.190 --> 00:33:18.269 made the car and the suburban house the only 00:33:18.269 --> 00:33:21.410 viable, affordable option for millions of families? 00:33:21.930 --> 00:33:24.470 If every neighborhood had a vibrant, walkable 00:33:24.470 --> 00:33:27.690 yoke, if the rail plus property model made transit 00:33:27.690 --> 00:33:30.089 fast, free, and frequent, would who even miss 00:33:30.089 --> 00:33:32.069 the drive? That's the billion dollar question, 00:33:32.150 --> 00:33:34.230 isn't it? It's a question worth asking next time 00:33:34.230 --> 00:33:35.970 you're stuck in traffic. Thanks for listening 00:33:35.970 --> 00:33:37.589 to this deep dive. See you next time.