WEBVTT

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I want you to do something for me right now.

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I want you to mentally walk into your garage.

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Okay. Or maybe it's your basement or that weird

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crawl space under the stairs where you just shove

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things you don't know what to do with. I have

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one of those. I want you to look for a bin. Specifically,

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a very, very sturdy colored plastic tub. Oh,

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I know exactly the one you're talking about.

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It's probably a dull red or maybe a forest green

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or a deep blue. It has these interlocking teeth

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on the lid, kind of like a zipper. Yep. I think

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I have three of them holding holiday decorations

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and, like, a mess of old cables I'm too afraid

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to throw away. Everyone has them. They're practically

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indestructible. I mean, you could probably drop

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one off a roof and it'd be fine. These stack

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perfectly, too. Honestly, they're probably the

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best storage containers ever made. They really

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are. Yeah. But here's the thing. Those tubs aren't

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just Tupperware. They are ghosts. They are the

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physical debris of a corporate explosion. Exactly.

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They are the archaeological artifacts of Webvan.

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And today, we are going to do a deep dive into

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how those plastic tubs represent one of the most

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spectacular, most expensive, and frankly, just

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confusing failures in the history of the Internet.

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It really is the ultimate cautionary tale. We

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are talking about a company that incinerated

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nearly $1 billion of capital. And that's the

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mystery we need to solve today. We have a whole

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stack of research here, financial filings, old

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interviews, postmortems from the early 2000s.

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And the question isn't just how do they lose

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so much money? It's how did a company backed

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by the absolute smartest venture capitalists

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in the world, I mean, the royalty of Silicon

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Valley. How did they go from a valuation of over

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$4 .8 billion to absolute zero in roughly 24

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months? It's a story about hubris, absolutely.

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But it's also a story about physics. You know,

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the physics of moving atoms versus moving bits

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and why really smart people so often confuse

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the two. So let's set the scene. We need to go

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back in time. It's 1996. The Macarena is on the

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radio. Independence Day is blowing up the White

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House and theaters. And in Silicon Valley, people

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are just losing their minds. You have to understand

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the atmosphere of the late 90s. This was the

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era of irrational exuberance. That was the phrase

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Alan Greenspan used. And it was absolutely perfect.

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Netscape had gone public just a year earlier.

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The internet felt like this wide open frontier.

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And there was this... pervasive, almost religious

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belief that the old rules of business, you know,

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profit, margins, physical assets, that they were

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all dead. Right. Brick and mortar was basically

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a slur back then. Right. If you owned a building,

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you were a dinosaur. If you owned a domain name,

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you were the future. Precisely. The feeling was

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that the Internet would frictionlessly connect

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buyer and seller, eliminating the middleman and

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just, poof, creating infinite value. And into

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this fever dream steps a man named Louis Borders.

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Now, that name, Borders. as in the bookstore.

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The very same. Louis Borders was a legitimate

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retail titan. He co -founded Borders Books back

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in 1971. And this is really important. He wasn't

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just some book guy who liked literature. He was

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a systems genius. Okay, so he's not just some

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kid in a garage hacking code together. This is

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a guy who built a physical empire. He was a math

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guy. A huge math guy. At Borders Books, he developed

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something called the Borders Expert System or

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BES. It was this incredibly sophisticated piece

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of software that could track inventory turnover

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at a really granular level. What do you mean

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by granular? I mean, it could predict which specific

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spy novel would sell better in Ann Arbor versus,

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say, Austin. It gave them this massive advantage

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over all the independent bookstores because they

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always had the right stock at the right time.

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So he builds this empire on code, on data. He

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sells his stake in borders, makes a fortune.

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He's sitting pretty. Why on earth does he then

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look at the grocery industry, which is notoriously

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miserable, low margin and just messy, and say,

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you know what, I can fix that? That is the billion

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dollar question, isn't it? I think he fell into

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a classic trap that we see with highly intelligent

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engineers. He thought that because he had solved

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the logistics of books, which are drugs. Their

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square, non -perishable shelf sta - Right, easy.

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He thought he could just copy -paste that same

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logic onto groceries. But a book doesn't bruise.

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The book doesn't melt if you leave it in the

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van too long. And a book definitely doesn't smell

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like fish if it sits there for two days. Precisely.

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But Borders looked at the grocery supply chain

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and all he saw was inefficiency. He saw middlemen.

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He saw wasted shelf space. He saw customers wandering

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up and down aisles pushing carts. Right. To an

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engineer's mind, a supermarket is just a disaster

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of inefficiency. He thought, I can centralize

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this whole thing. I can build the giant automated

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warehouse, use my software to manage the flow

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and deliver. directly to the consumer. It sounds

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so logical on paper. It's the classic disintermediation

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play. Cut out the store, keep the margin. And

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that was the entire pitch. In 1996, he founds

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Webban in Foster City, California. And the promise

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wasn't just we deliver food. It was about precision.

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You'd log on via dial -up. Remember, you'd pick

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your cereal, your milk, your eggs, and then you'd

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select a 30 -minute delivery window. Wait, hold

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on. A 30 -minute window. In 1999, I ordered from

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Amazon today. And I'm lucky if they hit a four

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-hour window. A 30 -minute window is insane.

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That's how ambitious this was. They weren't just

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trying to catch up to the current standard. They

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were trying to leapfrog it by 20 years. And to

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do that, they needed money. A staggering, staggering

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amount of money. This is where the story gets

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really wild for me. Because usually when you

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start a business, you test it outright. You open

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a lemonade stand. If people buy the lemonade,

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maybe you buy a second pitcher. You prove the

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model. Yes. Webvan didn't do that at all. They

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went straight to industrial scale. They subscribed

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to a strategy that was absolute gospel at the

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time. Get big fast. Or just GBF. Get big fast.

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It sounds like a bad bodybuilding supplement

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or something. But this was a serious economic

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theory. It was treated as a law of nature. The

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theory was based on this idea of first mover

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advantage. The thinking was that the internet

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is a winner take all market. So if you are the

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first online grocer, you grab the customer. And

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they stick with you. Exactly. Once the customer

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has entered their credit card and saved their

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shopping list, they become sticky. They won't

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switch. So the goal isn't to make a profit. The

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goal is just to grab the land. So it's a land

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grab. You worry about making money later on.

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First, you just plant the flag everywhere you

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can. That's it. And because of that pressure,

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Webvan didn't start small. They didn't just service,

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you know, Foster City with a couple of vans to

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see if the math actually worked. They immediately

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planned for world domination. But hold on a second.

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Groceries aren't a social network. There's no

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network effect. If I buy milk from Webvan, it

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doesn't make the milk any better for you. Does

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first mover advantage even apply to selling bananas?

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That is the critical flaw that almost nobody

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seemed to ask at the time. In software, you have

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network effects. In groceries, you just have

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a truck stuck in traffic. But the investors,

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they didn't care. They were just terrified of

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missing out. So who's feeding this beast? Because

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Louie Orders had money, but he didn't have this

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kind of money. He brought in the absolute heavy

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hitters. We're talking Benchmark Capital, Sequoia

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Capital. And for anyone listening who doesn't

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track VC inside baseball, Sequoia is the gold

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standard, right? They're the biggest name there

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is. Sequoia is Mount Olympus in Silicon Valley.

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They backed Apple, Google, Oracle. If Sequoia

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writes you a check, it's not just money. It's

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an anointing. It tells the rest of the market,

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this is the one. This is the winner. Backing

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up a dump truck full of money to anyone with

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a big idea is in. How much cash are we talking

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about here? In the private round, so before they

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even went public, they raised nearly $400 million.

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$400 million. SoftBank alone put in over $160

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million of that. What's that in today's money?

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Close to a billion. Something like that, yeah.

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Just in private cash. And they hadn't really

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sold any groceries yet. They had sold some. They

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started their operations in the Bay Area in June

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of 1999. But the revenue was, it was a rounding

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error compared to the investment. But it didn't

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matter. The hype train had left the station.

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They went public, the IPO, in November 1999.

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I looked up the numbers for the IPO, and I actually

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thought it was a typo in the source material.

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I had to double check. It's breathtaking, isn't

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it? They went public, and the market valued the

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company at $4 .8 billion. Billion dollars with

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a B. $4 .8 billion. Okay, I need you to anchor

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us in reality here. At the exact moment, they

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were worth $4 .8 billion on paper. How much money

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had they actually collected from customers? What

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was their cumulative all -time revenue? $395

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,000. Wait, say that again? $395 ,000. That's

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the revenue of a decent neighborhood deli. Or

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like a busy Starbucks for a few months. Successful

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deli, yes. And against that $395 ,000 in revenue,

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they had already lost over $50 million. So for

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every single dollar they brought in, they were

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burning. What's the math on that? Something like

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$125? Roughly, yes. And the market looked at

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that and said, this is fine. This is the future.

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It really just highlights how completely disconnected

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the dot -com bubble was from fundamental economics.

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Investors weren't buying the business as it existed.

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They were buying the story of what it could become

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if it took over the entire U .S. grocery market.

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They were betting on that get -big -fast dream.

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Okay, so they have the cash, they have the valuation,

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they have the mandate to expand at all costs.

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Now they have to actually build the thing. Yeah.

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And this is where that Borders philosophy kicks

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in again. They didn't just want to rent a warehouse

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and put up some shelves, did they? No. Oh, no.

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And this is where we have to talk about the infrastructure.

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Because this is where the money really, really

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vanished. Borders believed that the only way

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to make the margins work was through extreme

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automation. He didn't want humans walking around

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picking cans of soup. He wanted robots. So he

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hires Bettel. Yes. The massive global engineering

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firm. You know, these are the people who build

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nuclear power plants, airports, the Hoover Dam.

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Webb Van hired them to build their distribution

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centers. And when you say distribution center,

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I'm picturing a warehouse, a big shed with some

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forklifts driving around. You need to erase that

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image completely. These were not warehouses.

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They were food factories. There were 330 ,000

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square feet. That's about eight football fields

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under one roof. And inside. They were an absolute

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marvel of engineering. Walk us through it. What

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was inside one of these places? Okay, so you'd

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have miles of conveyor belts, massive rotating

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carousels. They looked like giant dry cleaning

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racks that would bring the product to the picker

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so the human didn't have to walk. Wow. They had

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complex server farms just to manage all the different

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temperature zones. They had specific climate

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-controlled rooms just for bananas, different

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rooms for chocolate, different rooms for frozen

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goods. It was... Unbelievably complex. It sounds

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amazing, honestly. It sounds a lot like an Amazon

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fulfillment center looks today. It does. That's

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the great irony. The technology itself was actually

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brilliant. The problem was the cost. Each one

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of these centers cost about $30 to $40 million

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to build. Each one? Each one. And remember the

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get big fast strategy? Don't tell me. They plan

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to build 26 of them. 26? That was the rollout

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plan. Seattle, Portland, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas.

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They were signing leases and breaking ground

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in multiple cities at the same time before they

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had even proven that the first one in San Francisco

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could make a single dollar of profit. This feels

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like watching a car crash in slow motion. They

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are literally scaling their losses. If you have

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a machine that loses a dollar every time you

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turn the crank, building 26 more machines just

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means you lose $27 every time you turn the crank.

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That is exactly what happened. But they were

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completely convinced that volume would fix it.

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They thought, once we are processing a billion

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dollars worth of food, the overhead per order

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will drop to nothing. But they just ignored the

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upfront capital expenditure. And it wasn't just

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the buildings. It was the trucks. I remember

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seeing pictures of these things. They weren't

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just standard delivery vans. No, these were custom

00:12:10.649 --> 00:12:13.330
-designed logistics vehicles. They looked a bit

00:12:13.330 --> 00:12:16.370
like space capsules on wheels. They were cute

00:12:16.370 --> 00:12:19.649
in a way. Very distinctive. But they were incredibly

00:12:19.649 --> 00:12:21.450
expensive. They had to be insulated. They had

00:12:21.450 --> 00:12:23.870
special racking systems for those plastic tubs

00:12:23.870 --> 00:12:25.610
we talked about at the beginning. Let's talk

00:12:25.610 --> 00:12:27.409
about the tubs for a second because that's where

00:12:27.409 --> 00:12:29.570
the whole cold chain idea comes in. Right. If

00:12:29.570 --> 00:12:32.049
a customer orders ice cream and toilet paper,

00:12:32.190 --> 00:12:34.450
you can't just throw them in the same box. The

00:12:34.450 --> 00:12:36.549
ice cream melts. The toilet paper gets soggy.

00:12:38.250 --> 00:12:42.190
Webvan designed these color coded bins. Some

00:12:42.190 --> 00:12:44.309
were for ambient temperature things, some were

00:12:44.309 --> 00:12:46.809
chilled, some were for frozen. They used dry

00:12:46.809 --> 00:12:49.789
ice and passive cooling. It was an engineering

00:12:49.789 --> 00:12:52.529
triumph. But again, expensive. Incredibly expensive.

00:12:52.690 --> 00:12:55.149
And the sheer complexity of managing those tubs,

00:12:55.210 --> 00:12:57.750
getting the right tub on the right truck in the

00:12:57.750 --> 00:12:59.950
right order so the driver isn't digging around

00:12:59.950 --> 00:13:02.610
for 10 minutes at every single stop. It was a

00:13:02.610 --> 00:13:04.509
logistical nightmare. So they are bleeding money

00:13:04.509 --> 00:13:06.730
on construction. They are bleeding money on custom

00:13:06.730 --> 00:13:08.950
trucks. They are bleeding money on robotics.

00:13:09.429 --> 00:13:11.590
And then in the middle of all this, in the year

00:13:11.590 --> 00:13:14.090
2000, they make another move that just seems

00:13:14.090 --> 00:13:17.610
baffling to me. They buy a competitor. The home

00:13:17.610 --> 00:13:19.929
grocer acquisition? Yeah. Right. They bought

00:13:19.929 --> 00:13:23.990
home grocer for $1 .2 billion in stock. Now,

00:13:24.049 --> 00:13:28.429
was home grocer the profitable, stable alternative?

00:13:28.889 --> 00:13:31.269
Were they buying a working business model? No.

00:13:31.710 --> 00:13:34.309
Not at all. Home Grocer was another online delivery

00:13:34.309 --> 00:13:36.750
service that was also losing money hand over

00:13:36.750 --> 00:13:38.429
fist. So let me get this straight. You have a

00:13:38.429 --> 00:13:40.610
company that is actively drowning, and to save

00:13:40.610 --> 00:13:43.009
itself, it grabs onto another swimmer who is

00:13:43.009 --> 00:13:45.539
also actively drowning. It's like tying two rocks

00:13:45.539 --> 00:13:48.279
together and hoping that they'll float. The logic,

00:13:48.279 --> 00:13:50.799
ostensibly, was to expand their footprint faster.

00:13:51.399 --> 00:13:53.919
Home Grocer had operations in the Pacific Northwest,

00:13:54.259 --> 00:13:56.940
and Webban wanted those customers. They thought,

00:13:57.000 --> 00:13:59.679
if we combine, we'll be too big to fail. But

00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:01.480
financially, it must have been disastrous. It

00:14:01.480 --> 00:14:04.019
was. They took on Home Grocer's leases, Home

00:14:04.019 --> 00:14:06.019
Grocer's employees, and most importantly, Home

00:14:06.019 --> 00:14:09.259
Grocer's losses. The burn rate. The amount of

00:14:09.259 --> 00:14:11.059
cash they were spending every month just to keep

00:14:11.059 --> 00:14:13.299
the lights on it skyrocketed. You know, when

00:14:13.299 --> 00:14:16.419
things go this wrong, this spectacularly, you

00:14:16.419 --> 00:14:17.799
have to look at the people in charge. We talked

00:14:17.799 --> 00:14:19.980
about Louie Borders, the founder, but he wasn't

00:14:19.980 --> 00:14:22.019
the CEO during the big collapse, was he? No.

00:14:22.179 --> 00:14:24.559
And this is a crucial piece of the puzzle. The

00:14:24.559 --> 00:14:27.080
investors, you know, Sequoia and the gang, they

00:14:27.080 --> 00:14:29.639
wanted what they called adult supervision. So

00:14:29.639 --> 00:14:33.340
they hired a professional CEO, a man named George

00:14:33.340 --> 00:14:35.259
Shaheen. And where did he come from? Was he a

00:14:35.259 --> 00:14:37.559
grocery guy? Did he run Kroger or Safeway? Nope.

00:14:38.399 --> 00:14:41.100
George Shaheen was the head of Anderson Consulting,

00:14:41.100 --> 00:14:43.720
which is now known as Accenture. He was the ultimate

00:14:43.720 --> 00:14:46.700
consultant, a very high powered, very successful

00:14:46.700 --> 00:14:49.620
strategy guy. OK, so he knows strategy. He knows

00:14:49.620 --> 00:14:52.029
how to talk to Wall Street. But does he know

00:14:52.029 --> 00:14:54.289
what happens when a pallet of strawberries sits

00:14:54.289 --> 00:14:57.289
on a hot loading dock for four hours in July?

00:14:57.549 --> 00:15:00.210
He did not. And this was a critical, critical

00:15:00.210 --> 00:15:03.070
flaw. In fact, almost none of Webvan's senior

00:15:03.070 --> 00:15:05.450
executives had any management experience in the

00:15:05.450 --> 00:15:07.929
supermarket industry. There were tech guys and

00:15:07.929 --> 00:15:10.190
consultants playing store. That seems like such

00:15:10.190 --> 00:15:12.409
a glaring oversight. The grocery business is

00:15:12.409 --> 00:15:14.990
famous for having razor -thin margins. It's a

00:15:14.990 --> 00:15:17.289
penny business. You fight for every single cent.

00:15:17.470 --> 00:15:20.879
It is a game of pennies. If you don't understand

00:15:20.879 --> 00:15:24.759
spoilage, inventory turns, and the brutal economics

00:15:24.759 --> 00:15:27.620
of perishable goods, you are dead in the water.

00:15:28.240 --> 00:15:30.700
Shaheen was used to high -margin consulting contracts

00:15:30.700 --> 00:15:33.700
where you bill someone $500 an hour. He wasn't

00:15:33.700 --> 00:15:35.659
used to a business where if you drop a single

00:15:35.659 --> 00:15:38.179
carton of eggs, you've just wiped out the entire

00:15:38.179 --> 00:15:40.480
profit for that whole order. And getting him

00:15:40.480 --> 00:15:43.200
to leave a place like Anderson Consulting couldn't

00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:45.820
have been cheap, was it? No. At Anderson, he

00:15:45.820 --> 00:15:48.580
was making about $4 million a year. So to lure

00:15:48.580 --> 00:15:51.840
him away to this risky startup, Webvan had to

00:15:51.840 --> 00:15:54.019
offer him a compensation package that became

00:15:54.019 --> 00:15:56.340
legendary for all the wrong reasons. What was

00:15:56.340 --> 00:15:58.600
in the package? Well, there was the stock, obviously,

00:15:58.720 --> 00:16:01.059
a ton of stock options. But there was a contract

00:16:01.059 --> 00:16:03.700
clause, a golden parachute that promised him

00:16:03.700 --> 00:16:08.149
$375 ,000 per year. For life. For life. Just

00:16:08.149 --> 00:16:10.629
for taking the job, even if he got fired. Essentially,

00:16:10.750 --> 00:16:12.730
it was a retirement package guaranteed by the

00:16:12.730 --> 00:16:14.990
company. It just shows you how supremely confident

00:16:14.990 --> 00:16:16.730
they were. They thought this company will be

00:16:16.730 --> 00:16:18.870
around for 100 years. Paying this guy is just

00:16:18.870 --> 00:16:22.190
peanuts. That is audacious. So Shaheen is at

00:16:22.190 --> 00:16:24.629
the wheel. They're building $40 million warehouses

00:16:24.629 --> 00:16:26.629
in Atlanta. They're buying a fleet of custom

00:16:26.629 --> 00:16:30.450
vans. And then the year 2000 rolls on. The dotcom

00:16:30.450 --> 00:16:34.000
bubble starts to hiss. The Nasdaq peaked in March

00:16:34.000 --> 00:16:36.940
of 2000, and then it just started a long, painful

00:16:36.940 --> 00:16:40.000
slide. And suddenly, investors stopped caring

00:16:40.000 --> 00:16:42.899
about eyeballs and growth metrics, and they started

00:16:42.899 --> 00:16:45.539
asking about profits. A novel concept. And when

00:16:45.539 --> 00:16:47.500
you looked at Webvan through the lens of profitability,

00:16:47.899 --> 00:16:50.759
it was a complete horror show. So what did the

00:16:50.759 --> 00:16:53.230
financial picture look like at its peak? If we

00:16:53.230 --> 00:16:55.409
look at the full year 2000, they had sales of

00:16:55.409 --> 00:16:59.730
$178 .5 million. So real money was coming in.

00:16:59.789 --> 00:17:01.750
People were using it. Okay. But their expenses

00:17:01.750 --> 00:17:05.569
were... $525 .4 million. Oh my. For every dollar

00:17:05.569 --> 00:17:07.309
of revenue they brought in, they spent three.

00:17:07.609 --> 00:17:09.869
The burn rate was completely unsustainable. They

00:17:09.869 --> 00:17:11.549
were running out of cash. And because the stock

00:17:11.549 --> 00:17:13.190
market had crashed, they couldn't just go back

00:17:13.190 --> 00:17:15.369
to the investors and say, hey, can we have another

00:17:15.369 --> 00:17:18.109
$100 million? The well was dry. So the crash,

00:17:18.289 --> 00:17:20.849
how fast did it happen? Frighteningly fast. By

00:17:20.849 --> 00:17:23.650
April 2001, Shaheen sees the writing on the wall

00:17:23.650 --> 00:17:26.109
and he resigns. Does he get his lifetime payout?

00:17:26.289 --> 00:17:28.730
And that's the karmic twist in the story. When

00:17:28.730 --> 00:17:31.029
the company filed for bankruptcy just a few months

00:17:31.029 --> 00:17:34.289
later, He became just another unsecured creditor.

00:17:34.410 --> 00:17:37.730
The contract was worthless. Wow. He had to get

00:17:37.730 --> 00:17:39.829
in line with the guys who sold them the cardboard

00:17:39.829 --> 00:17:43.390
boxes. He lost the golden parachute. So even

00:17:43.390 --> 00:17:46.309
the exit strategy failed. The plane crashed too

00:17:46.309 --> 00:17:48.910
fast for the parachute to even open. Walk us

00:17:48.910 --> 00:17:53.680
through the final days. June, July of 2001. Well,

00:17:53.759 --> 00:17:55.799
they tried to retrench. They pulled out of Atlanta

00:17:55.799 --> 00:17:58.259
and Dallas to try and save the core San Francisco

00:17:58.259 --> 00:18:01.220
operation. But the fixed costs of those massive

00:18:01.220 --> 00:18:03.519
warehouses were just too high. You can't just

00:18:03.519 --> 00:18:06.400
turn off a $40 million facility. It's like having

00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:08.099
a mortgage on a mansion while you're suddenly

00:18:08.099 --> 00:18:10.119
working a minimum wage job. The math doesn't

00:18:10.119 --> 00:18:13.420
work. Exactly. On July 9, 2001, it all ended.

00:18:13.500 --> 00:18:16.079
They ceased all operations. Just like that. Did

00:18:16.079 --> 00:18:18.400
the customers know it was coming? No. People

00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:20.619
logged on to their computers to order dinner

00:18:20.619 --> 00:18:23.579
and the site was just gone. Drivers who were

00:18:23.579 --> 00:18:25.640
out on their routes were told over the radio

00:18:25.640 --> 00:18:27.779
to stop delivering and return the trucks to the

00:18:27.779 --> 00:18:29.660
depot. What happened to all the food? That's

00:18:29.660 --> 00:18:32.019
one of the few nice details in this whole mess.

00:18:32.420 --> 00:18:34.839
The warehouses were still full of fresh food.

00:18:35.180 --> 00:18:37.440
As part of the shutdown, they donated all the

00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:40.680
non -perishables to local food banks. So something

00:18:40.680 --> 00:18:43.460
good came of it. But 2 ,000 people lost their

00:18:43.460 --> 00:18:46.099
jobs that day, and investors lost everything.

00:18:46.880 --> 00:18:49.180
So the tubs are left. The vans are auctioned

00:18:49.180 --> 00:18:51.500
off. I think I read somewhere that the vans were

00:18:51.500 --> 00:18:53.680
sold for just pennies on the dollar. Oh, yeah.

00:18:53.740 --> 00:18:55.440
You can still see them even today sometimes.

00:18:55.660 --> 00:18:57.819
They have a very distinct shape. Plumbers bought

00:18:57.819 --> 00:19:00.839
them. Electricians bought them. The ghost of

00:19:00.839 --> 00:19:02.819
web van is probably parked in front of a house

00:19:02.819 --> 00:19:04.799
in your neighborhood right now fixing a sink.

00:19:05.059 --> 00:19:07.299
Okay, we've told the tragedy. Now we need to

00:19:07.299 --> 00:19:10.579
do the autopsy. Yeah. Why did it fail? Because,

00:19:10.660 --> 00:19:13.039
and this is the key. I can pull out my phone

00:19:13.039 --> 00:19:15.720
right now and order groceries. Instacart exists.

00:19:16.000 --> 00:19:19.000
Amazon Fresh exists. The idea wasn't wrong. People

00:19:19.000 --> 00:19:21.299
clearly want grocery delivery. So why did Webvan

00:19:21.299 --> 00:19:23.519
fail so badly where others eventually succeeded?

00:19:23.799 --> 00:19:26.119
Analysts have spent 20 years dissecting this.

00:19:26.339 --> 00:19:28.759
And it really comes down to three main failures.

00:19:28.900 --> 00:19:30.980
But the biggest one, the one that really killed

00:19:30.980 --> 00:19:33.240
them, comes down to two words, unit economics.

00:19:33.740 --> 00:19:36.059
OK, let's break that down. Specifically, it's

00:19:36.059 --> 00:19:38.180
about delivery density. That's the magic word,

00:19:38.319 --> 00:19:41.279
density. Why is density so important? Okay, think

00:19:41.279 --> 00:19:45.220
about the mailman or a UPS driver. A UPS driver

00:19:45.220 --> 00:19:48.779
stops on a single street and delivers five packages

00:19:48.779 --> 00:19:51.980
to three different houses. He walks maybe 50

00:19:51.980 --> 00:19:55.630
feet between stops. That is high density. The

00:19:55.630 --> 00:19:58.569
cost of his truck and his salary is split across

00:19:58.569 --> 00:20:01.150
those five deliveries. Makes total sense. Web

00:20:01.150 --> 00:20:03.910
van had no density. They were driving across

00:20:03.910 --> 00:20:06.450
a 30 minute radius to deliver one order, then

00:20:06.450 --> 00:20:08.750
driving another 20 minutes across town to the

00:20:08.750 --> 00:20:11.230
next single order. So the truck is just driving

00:20:11.230 --> 00:20:13.710
around empty, burning gas and paying the driver

00:20:13.710 --> 00:20:16.190
just to carry one bag of groceries. Exactly.

00:20:16.369 --> 00:20:19.490
This is the famous last mile problem. The cost

00:20:19.490 --> 00:20:22.529
of that driver and that truck is fixed. per hour.

00:20:22.710 --> 00:20:25.029
If you can't spread it over multiple orders in

00:20:25.029 --> 00:20:28.230
that hour, the math never, ever works. Webvan's

00:20:28.230 --> 00:20:30.430
model required a density of customers that simply

00:20:30.430 --> 00:20:32.589
didn't exist yet. They were trying to service

00:20:32.589 --> 00:20:35.529
an entire metro area with a scattershot approach.

00:20:35.789 --> 00:20:37.230
And this connects to the second big failure,

00:20:37.349 --> 00:20:39.750
right? The target demographic. Who are they trying

00:20:39.750 --> 00:20:42.369
to sell to? They wanted to be the everyman supermarket.

00:20:42.789 --> 00:20:45.549
They wanted to replace Safeway or Kroger. They

00:20:45.549 --> 00:20:48.569
targeted price sensitive mass market consumers.

00:20:49.109 --> 00:20:52.000
And why is that a mistake? Everyone eats. It's

00:20:52.000 --> 00:20:54.299
a huge market. Because the everyman cares about

00:20:54.299 --> 00:20:58.700
price. If a gallon of milk is $3 at the store,

00:20:58.900 --> 00:21:03.480
they won't pay $4 .50 on Webvan. So Webvan couldn't

00:21:03.480 --> 00:21:05.180
charge a high delivery fee and they couldn't

00:21:05.180 --> 00:21:07.819
mark up the prices of the food itself. They squeeze

00:21:07.819 --> 00:21:10.079
their own margins to death. So who should they

00:21:10.079 --> 00:21:12.099
have targeted instead? They should have targeted

00:21:12.099 --> 00:21:15.380
the time poor, cash rich demographic, you know,

00:21:15.380 --> 00:21:18.039
lawyers, doctors, tech executives, people who

00:21:18.039 --> 00:21:21.119
would have happily paid a $20 delivery fee to

00:21:21.119 --> 00:21:22.920
avoid going to the store on a Tuesday night.

00:21:23.500 --> 00:21:26.579
If they had started as a niche luxury concierge

00:21:26.579 --> 00:21:29.299
service, established that density in a few wealthy

00:21:29.299 --> 00:21:31.819
neighborhoods and then expanded, they might have

00:21:31.819 --> 00:21:34.269
actually survived. They tried to be Walmart before

00:21:34.269 --> 00:21:36.150
they were even a boutique. That's the perfect

00:21:36.150 --> 00:21:38.289
way to put it. They wanted the volume of Walmart

00:21:38.289 --> 00:21:40.349
with the cost structure of a limo service. It

00:21:40.349 --> 00:21:42.289
was never going to work. And the third failure.

00:21:42.809 --> 00:21:45.210
Infrastructure overload. Yeah. The build -it

00:21:45.210 --> 00:21:48.269
-yourself trap. Contrast this with how a company

00:21:48.269 --> 00:21:51.250
like Instacart started. Instacart is the anti

00:21:51.250 --> 00:21:54.289
-web ban. Instacart built zero infrastructure.

00:21:54.509 --> 00:21:57.289
No warehouses, no trucks, no inventory. They

00:21:57.289 --> 00:21:59.970
just built an app. That's it. That's it. They

00:21:59.970 --> 00:22:02.670
sent a gig worker into an existing Safeway who

00:22:02.670 --> 00:22:05.329
picked the food off the existing shelves and

00:22:05.329 --> 00:22:08.210
drove it to the customer in their own car. Asset

00:22:08.210 --> 00:22:11.509
light versus asset heavy. It's the ultimate example.

00:22:11.890 --> 00:22:15.130
Webvan tried to rebuild the entire grocery infrastructure

00:22:15.130 --> 00:22:17.630
of the United States from scratch. Instacart

00:22:17.630 --> 00:22:19.950
just skimmed a service fee off the top. It was

00:22:19.950 --> 00:22:23.470
infinitely cheaper and faster to scale Instacart's

00:22:23.470 --> 00:22:25.369
model. It's amazing when you put it like that.

00:22:25.470 --> 00:22:28.089
Webvan spent a billion dollars to build warehouses.

00:22:28.650 --> 00:22:31.769
Instacart spent maybe, what, $100 ,000 to build

00:22:31.769 --> 00:22:34.430
an app and then leveraged billions of dollars

00:22:34.430 --> 00:22:36.970
of Safeway's real estate for free. That is the

00:22:36.970 --> 00:22:39.519
lesson. Don't build what you can rent, especially

00:22:39.519 --> 00:22:41.359
if you don't know for sure if the business model

00:22:41.359 --> 00:22:43.819
even works yet. But and here's where it gets

00:22:43.819 --> 00:22:46.960
really interesting for me. Webin didn't completely

00:22:46.960 --> 00:22:51.519
die. The DNA, the idea, it survived. It did.

00:22:51.660 --> 00:22:54.160
And the connection to Amazon is absolutely fascinating.

00:22:54.460 --> 00:22:56.539
Tell me about that. Well, first off, Amazon actually

00:22:56.539 --> 00:23:00.089
resurrected the brand name. In 2009, when Amazon

00:23:00.089 --> 00:23:02.890
started Amazon Fresh, in some markets, they literally

00:23:02.890 --> 00:23:06.470
used the web van URL for a while. It was sort

00:23:06.470 --> 00:23:08.450
of a little nod to the pioneer. But it's deeper

00:23:08.450 --> 00:23:10.549
than just the name, right? Oh, it's much deeper.

00:23:10.549 --> 00:23:12.970
A lot of the former web van executives, the guys

00:23:12.970 --> 00:23:14.529
who were in the trenches when it all collapsed,

00:23:14.609 --> 00:23:16.710
they went to work for Amazon. They took those

00:23:16.710 --> 00:23:19.170
hard -learned, painful lessons about density

00:23:19.170 --> 00:23:21.710
and warehousing and logistics straight to Jeff

00:23:21.710 --> 00:23:23.750
Bezos. And what about the robots? You mentioned

00:23:23.750 --> 00:23:26.650
the carousels and the automation. The concept

00:23:26.650 --> 00:23:29.349
of automated warehousing didn't die at all. It

00:23:29.349 --> 00:23:32.430
just evolved. A company called Kiva Systems developed

00:23:32.430 --> 00:23:34.690
these amazing little orange robots that move

00:23:34.690 --> 00:23:38.269
entire shelves around warehouses. And in 2012,

00:23:38.569 --> 00:23:43.630
Amazon bought Kiva for $775 million. The robots

00:23:43.630 --> 00:23:45.910
you see in Amazon warehouses today are the spiritual

00:23:45.910 --> 00:23:48.869
successors to the Webvan automation dream. So

00:23:48.869 --> 00:23:51.039
Webvan was right about the robots. They were

00:23:51.039 --> 00:23:52.779
right about the Internet changing how we shop.

00:23:52.900 --> 00:23:55.579
They were just being too early is the same thing

00:23:55.579 --> 00:23:57.960
as being wrong. They were a decade ahead of the

00:23:57.960 --> 00:24:01.039
technology, especially smartphones, and a decade

00:24:01.039 --> 00:24:04.779
ahead of customer behavior. In 1999, people were

00:24:04.779 --> 00:24:06.759
still genuinely scared to put their credit card

00:24:06.759 --> 00:24:10.059
information online. In 2020, we don't think twice

00:24:10.059 --> 00:24:12.779
about it. Speaking of 2020, this brings us right

00:24:12.779 --> 00:24:16.539
to the modern era. The pandemic hits and suddenly.

00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:19.380
What do we see popping up everywhere? We see

00:24:19.380 --> 00:24:22.220
the dark store explosion. Companies like Gatier,

00:24:22.279 --> 00:24:25.539
Gorillaz, GoPuff. Yes. Ultra fast delivery. 15

00:24:25.539 --> 00:24:28.619
minutes or less. They raised billions and billions

00:24:28.619 --> 00:24:31.079
of dollars in venture capital. And they operated

00:24:31.079 --> 00:24:33.319
out of these small mini warehouses right in the

00:24:33.319 --> 00:24:35.880
middle of city center. It sounds incredibly familiar.

00:24:36.140 --> 00:24:38.819
It's deja vu all over again. They burned cash

00:24:38.819 --> 00:24:41.079
to acquire customers. They subsidized the delivery

00:24:41.079 --> 00:24:43.480
costs. And guess what happened to a lot of them

00:24:43.480 --> 00:24:46.470
in 2022 and 2023 when that... Venture money started

00:24:46.470 --> 00:24:48.829
to dry up. They crashed. Many went bankrupt.

00:24:49.269 --> 00:24:51.430
Others consolidated or pulled out of markets.

00:24:51.710 --> 00:24:54.410
It turns out the physics of delivering a $2 bag

00:24:54.410 --> 00:24:57.170
of chips to someone's door in 15 minutes is still

00:24:57.170 --> 00:24:59.250
really, really hard to make profitable. It's

00:24:59.250 --> 00:25:01.849
the web van curse. It is. It's the siren song

00:25:01.849 --> 00:25:04.509
of the grocery business. It looks like this enormous

00:25:04.509 --> 00:25:07.690
trillion dollar market, but... The margins are

00:25:07.690 --> 00:25:11.250
a minefield. So what is the final takeaway here?

00:25:11.369 --> 00:25:13.190
If you're a listener, maybe you're an entrepreneur,

00:25:13.410 --> 00:25:15.509
or maybe you just invest in stocks on the side,

00:25:15.650 --> 00:25:18.769
what should you learn from the humble plastic

00:25:18.769 --> 00:25:21.869
tub? I think the biggest lesson is to beware

00:25:21.869 --> 00:25:25.250
of smart money. Just because Sequoia or Goldman

00:25:25.250 --> 00:25:27.349
Sachs is investing, it doesn't automatically

00:25:27.349 --> 00:25:29.970
mean the business makes fundamental sense. They

00:25:29.970 --> 00:25:31.549
can get caught up in the hype just like anyone

00:25:31.549 --> 00:25:34.069
else. They often drive the hype. And secondly,

00:25:34.309 --> 00:25:36.630
unit economics are undefeated. You can have the

00:25:36.630 --> 00:25:38.930
best vision, the best logo, and the coolest app

00:25:38.930 --> 00:25:41.869
in the world. But if you lose money on every

00:25:41.869 --> 00:25:44.589
single order, you cannot make it up in volume.

00:25:44.910 --> 00:25:47.769
Gravity always, always wins eventually. I think

00:25:47.769 --> 00:25:49.430
that's the perfect place to leave it. Next time

00:25:49.430 --> 00:25:51.089
you go into your garage and you see that sturdy

00:25:51.089 --> 00:25:54.069
green or red plastic bin, give it a little salute.

00:25:54.190 --> 00:25:56.650
It cost a billion dollars to make. Inexpensive

00:25:56.650 --> 00:25:59.670
souvenir from the dot -com era. Thanks for listening

00:25:59.670 --> 00:26:02.670
to this deep dive into Webvan. If you enjoyed

00:26:02.670 --> 00:26:04.970
this, share it with a friend who thinks they

00:26:04.970 --> 00:26:07.470
have a can't -miss business idea. We'll catch

00:26:07.470 --> 00:26:08.130
you on the next one.
